Quote from Swan Noir:
I think the poker analogy is not correct. .
Poker analogies are rarely correct on anything other than the most simple and trivial truths, because trading is meaningfully different to poker. In fact, analogies have no logical validity whatsoever, they are only useful as blunt tools to explain to people who don't understand the subject at hand (e.g. non-traders, novices). For some reason people seem to love arguing by analogy, I guess it saves having to write down a proper explanation. But, the market doesn't reward those with the cutest analogy, it rewards those with the most accurate model of the nature of future market behaviour.