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keeptradin'
Registered: Feb 2004
Posts: 1419 |
04-16-12 11:30 PM
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
If you insist on doing this strategy, why not wait to begin until a series of consecutive down days?
This has nothing to do with the Monte Carlo fallacy although many people might think it does.
Thanks for your suggestion, but how many down days should I wait for? Two, five, ten? It's a rigged game, and I certainly don't know which days will be up or down. Anyone who does is probably on a remote island and not posting here on ET.
I started sim trading the system and posting results on 4/13. The two previous days were up days, and the six previous days were all down/flat. The only way to win is to be in, and this is one way of doing it, albeit a far from perfect one.
If I had started the system on 4/11 instead of 4/13 it would be flat after four trades, instead of minus twenty points after two. And if I had stayed in school and gotten my degree I would just now be getting home from a ten hour day of kissing someone's ass at work, instead of coming in from shooting hoops with my boys, after working a half day at home. Shoulda, woulda, coulda...
The system works well in a bull market with narrow ranges, as we had from January to March. Now that the market is worried about the international economic slowdown, doesn't like the jobs numbers, blah, blah, blah, we have seen a marked increase in both down days and volatility.
What's to say the powers that be won't decide tomorrow that there has been enough correction for now, and we put together five or more straight up days? 
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keeptradin'
Registered: Feb 2004
Posts: 1419 |
04-16-12 11:39 PM
Quote from OptionsCharm:
Since you are doing this kind of strategy, instead of using the 9:30am open, how about using the Globex 24 hour open which is at 4:30pm ET? If today closes down, then when ES opens for the new day at 4:30pm you go long, perhaps your chance of hitting 10 points target is higher into the evening or over the night or into the morning hours. And since you give it a large 10pts stop loss, given today has already been down, your large stop may not be hit after hour, or as quickly hit like the last two trades you made at 9:30am. If today closes up, you go short at new open. Just an idea, untested, but may work. Good luck.
Thank you for your suggestion, I have been looking at using the overnight open instead of the RTH.
It seems that all the action is in the ETH session now, probably due to it being easier for the major players to move the market when most retail traders are sawing logs.
Guess I'm gonna need to learn to program so I can test some of these variables. 
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1a2b3cppp
Registered: Sep 2008
Posts: 2518 |
04-17-12 12:05 AM
Quote from keeptradin':
Thanks for your suggestion, but how many down days should I wait for? Two, five, ten? It's a rigged game, and I certainly don't know which days will be up or down. Anyone who does is probably on a remote island and not posting here on ET.
I don't know, man. I can't predict price movement.
The system works well in a bull market with narrow ranges, as we had from January to March. Now that the market is worried about the international economic slowdown, doesn't like the jobs numbers, blah, blah, blah, we have seen a marked increase in both down days and volatility.
Yeah, only entering after down days means you will miss out on big bull runs.
What's to say the powers that be won't decide tomorrow that there has been enough correction for now, and we put together five or more straight up days?
Exactly. I don't know of anyone that can predict price.
Just something you might want to backtest, although it's probably not going to help any since every day is random and an of itself (as much as people want to get excited about "trends," no one seems to be able to predict when one will begin nor how long it will last).
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Pigsky
Registered: Feb 2012
Posts: 37 |
04-17-12 12:10 AM
Quote from shopster:
98% loser .
-1
s
hahahaha
shopster taking care of business again
watch out or you end up like your pal Z-meister...
let's reflect on that..........
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keeptradin'
Registered: Feb 2004
Posts: 1419 |
04-17-12 01:06 AM
Okay, rough numbers here, mainly because I am too lazy at the moment to do the real math. And I've had a couple of drinks...
This system is plus approximately 90 ES points (after commissions, which cost me ~ $4/roundturn) from the beginning of 2012. There has been substantial drawdown in the month of April, due to whatever reasons the financial media has said caused it.
Tomorrow could be the beginning of another massive uptrend. Or it could be Armageddon. There could be an Iranian/N. Korean/Mexican (seriously, you don't think there are nukes there?) nuclear crisis. Or Bernanke could announce QE3.
Historically, the market has moved upward. Why? Because the market relies on investment from the masses. Do the masses invest in a downturn? Not for long.
It is in the best interest of the major financial institutions for the market to continue to rise over the long haul. At least until the puppet-string pullers decide that it's time to change course.
So that is why, after fifteen years of studying the market, that I came up with a system that BUYS the open. Yes, there will be down days, maybe many of them. But it's in the best interest of those who control the destiny of the financial system for the masses to believe that everything is fine, just keep buying..
Time for another round, it's on me this time!!
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