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Old Mar 11th, 2012, 11:16 PM   #1
xdiesel123x
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 71
The pattern on 10 year yield is coming to an inflection point.

if we rally above 2.05 we will see 2.25-

trade carefully because if we fail the yield can sink to 1.75

feel free to PM me
    Quote
Old Mar 12th, 2012, 02:43 PM   #2
nazzdack
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 8,951
Quote:
Quote from xdiesel123x:
----pattern....
----10-year yield....
----inflection point.
----we will see 2.25%....
----trade carefully....
----yield can sink to 1.75....
1) Make up your mind!
2) You're a "two-handed economist".
    Quote
Old Mar 13th, 2012, 04:46 PM   #3
xdiesel123x
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 71
Fairly confident this will head to 2.25 range bases on todays action. 90% confidence-
    Quote
Old Mar 14th, 2012, 01:09 PM   #4
xdiesel123x
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 71
2.25% today
    Quote
Old Mar 14th, 2012, 08:02 PM   #5
eurusdzn
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 384
I didnt take that trade at 130ish on the 10 year , ZN , ( I did see it)
mostly because I have seen the bond market doing
what the fed wants and bidding bonds as we have climbed to ES , 140.

I have little experince watching the 10 year on a daily basis
and wondered if the fed could contain the yeild.
Guess I got my answer the last 2 days. The market( all factors indicating present and expected inflation) swamps the feds "pledge" and "twist".
Seems obvious now, by the move in bonds over the last two days, that any further liquidity operations are off the table.

Out on a limb here , I believe it has been entirely a wordwide liquidity
driven rally, competitive worldwide currency deval, government and fed
engineered rally and of course we do have inflation above target, but....
The bond bubble will not burst. We wont climb a real wall of worry
as in the mid 90's and mid 2000's where corperate eranings, assets, stocks and yeilds ( a real healthy economy) rise with a behind the curve fed.
But this is "chicken soup" that is pretty mainstream isnt it.
    Quote
Old Mar 14th, 2012, 08:25 PM   #6
Shanb
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 1,107
Quote:
Quote from eurusdzn:

I didnt take that trade at 130ish on the 10 year , ZN , ( I did see it)
mostly because I have seen the bond market doing
what the fed wants and bidding bonds as we have climbed to ES , 140.

I have little experince watching the 10 year on a daily basis
and wondered if the fed could contain the yeild.
Guess I got my answer the last 2 days. The market( all factors indicating present and expected inflation) swamps the feds "pledge" and "twist".
Seems obvious now, by the move in bonds over the last two days, that any further liquidity operations are off the table.

Out on a limb here , I believe it has been entirely a wordwide liquidity
driven rally, competitive worldwide currency deval, government and fed
engineered rally and of course we do have inflation above target, but....
The bond bubble will not burst. We wont climb a real wall of worry
as in the mid 90's and mid 2000's where corperate eranings, assets, stocks and yeilds ( a real healthy economy) rise with a behind the curve fed.
But this is "chicken soup" that is pretty mainstream isnt it.
Who cares, look at the price action!!
    Quote
 
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