Registered: Sep 2002
02-25-12 03:33 AM
Quote from Visaria:
I read that the CEO of Vitol (large oil trader in the world) said (dollar) record highs in oil were a possibility. I think we are already at record highs if the price of oil is in pounds or euros.
Yeah, maybe. But this looks pretty strong. So it may be better to hold through pullbacks, which would have been the best strategy so far. Unless you sell the spikes up and then reenter on pullbacks.
Quote from Visaria:
Hey BCE, do u recall that post i wrote about scaling out? Would make so much sense here in this major rally.
At some point this will reverse and some people will try to buy the dips not recognizing this is selling off instead. I'd suggest not trying to average in long on pullbacks for this reason. I saw a mini version of that during the last half hour. Everyone gets conditioned to buy any pullback as it has gone higher.
And I'd personally not try to swing short either. Wishing you all the best with those QM shorts RA. And ammo I know you got burned on those, but I think it was a good move to cut it now. You'll get it back. We just have to wait for a clear reversal signal and then be able to recognize it, which isn't always easy.
I tried twice to short 108.10 as observing the action CL wasn't rebounding with the indices and wasn't rebounding while DX was pulling back. But it didn't and as you can see from my chart I exited with a 4 tick and 3 tick loss. Nothing. After the fact one could say it would have been good to reverse it. But I did reenter @108.44 as you can also see. But I just got my 32 ticks and exited but did reenter several times on the runup and scalped my way up.
I look at different instruments and how they react toward one another. Lots of times this works really well. This worked great with TF earlier as it was just sitting in place while everything else was going up. I knew it would selloff and went short. And after a few minutes it did. But as we've mentioned many times too, CL has a mind of her own. Just wanted to test that low I guess and then a couple of hours later said, "Okay, lets go for a run back up the hill."
As I mentioned, unless the underlying story changes where will this top? That's why I'm trying to remember what happened when this topped @114. What caused the reversal? Seemed like it was the Saudis.