Registered: Dec 2009
02-27-12 02:51 PM
It has become clear to be good at this requires a consant process of revision, like many things.
I should take back my statements of attempting to trade pure price action. My current experience as well as study of charts show that without something other than price action, it's very difficult to find high probability trades. I have traded many technical patterns alone. Obviously, it hasn't been a stellar approach. There are possibly pure price patterns out there that can make money, but to me, there are indicators that very logically explain when and where the price should go.
So.... I revised my entry plan to include at least 1 indicator other than price, which there are several. Basically, I'm still looking for a trendline break in the direction an indicator points to.
I think the most important part of trading is the exit strategy. In the past I haven't put too much emphasis on this - except by using tight stops. This is only part of the equation. I need to figure out how to take profits as well. All my tests show in most cases you lose or make a little, and few cases you make a lot, with my current exit plan.
I still don't believe I should invest time in creating a program to test ideas. The things I observe in the market do not have an obvious fixed pattern. Therefore, as I've explained before, I don't think profitable algos are created easily and on top of that I don't think they persist well. Not only that, but because I think avoiding intra-day is more worth while (especially when it comes time to pay the piper), I only need to check the market a few times a week, which I can easily do without automation. I'll update my edge direction weekly, and check price after the close.
@ $24k (+0%)