Registered: Apr 2005
01-25-12 08:16 PM
Now is not the time to fuck with oil prices. It's hard to tell how much is baked in, but I think 20-30% "spike" is way too low. WTI averaged ~85$, for the better part of 2 years. I doubt the market has "baked in" two years worth of war expectations with Iran.
Back in 79-80, oil prices doubled. The Iraq-Iran war brought Iranian oil production to a halt. If America goes in and takes out their refineries/fields, it could be a repeat. I think 50% spike, at least. Perhaps more. Depends how far it escalates.