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Have you ever been a foolish long (or short)?
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Yes 11 55.00%
N0 9 45.00%
Total: 20 votes 100%
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Buy1Sell2
 

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 8117

 

01-14-12 06:26 PM

I would like to mention a group of traders. These are the foolish longs. Let me explain what a foolish long (or short) is. This is the trader that is overextended and has held on without using a tight stop initially. (overextended and highly leveraged traders must use stops). Most retail /public traders are overextended and highly leveraged. He has already gone well past his 2 percent of portfolio stop guideline and is now looking at his summer vacation money, his kids college money and/or the next mortgage payment etc slipping away from him( or may have to tell the wife). He then sells his position and gets out just near the bottom. He has feared that he is in front of a freight train and the next move down will destroy him(or his wife will). Of course, he has been in front of a freight train all the time and because of the overextension, he has put himself in this position. He must get out. These foolish longs sell (humans are built the same, there are other foolish longs selling near the same time that he is), and when they sell, it creates the final downward thrust as the divergence traders eyeing the chart are preparing to buy in. Then the foolish longs watch the price retrace upwards as they watch their fresh short positions getting whacked and they hold on to those. And the cycle goes on and on.

Note: Nowhere in this discussion do I mention anything to do with fundamentals.

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Redneck
 

Registered: Dec 2008
Posts: 2359

 

01-14-12 06:34 PM


Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Note: Nowhere in this discussion do I mention anything to do with fundamentals.



B1

Unfortunately I must disagree (respectfully of course)

Your post reeks of the FUNDAMENTAL human condition each of us must overcome



jmho
RN

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trader198
 

Registered: Mar 2010
Posts: 1217

 

01-16-12 04:06 PM

I do. plus I am a foolish short seller too.

particularly when I get a loser, i want to make sure next trade is a winner, so i jump on the exact top (thought to be upside breakup) to buy, then wait til to the exact bottom, I get out, and reverse become a short seller, then painfully watch it climb and put me in more red.

I do sometimes.

but you mean foolish, that is not. every thing has two sides. the wrong part here is not cut loss quickly when the breakthrough does not happen.

over the weekend, I told one of my church friend, I shorted natural gas at 2.625 at the historicaly low. he immediately barked back that is dangerous, it is too low and it dropped lot, watch out gap up.
i smile. whether gap up/or not, let's see this monday.

ha ha, now it is 2.540+, and struggling.... I am just foolish to short it over the weekend. neither i am smart, nor i am foolish, I am just lucky and i just do what I should do.

do not laugh at those people who keep buying natural gas or ung, when a new low printed, they buy, they thought it is a bottom, then another push down smashed them again, do not laugh at them, their mistake is not cut loss short or they are sturnborn to hold on to their belief: things go down will bounce.

they are not naive, they are just not lucky.

if someone picked INHX bottom at 10 over the weekend, you will say bottom picking is awesome. but that is just lucky. nor more than that.

so do not laugh at those people

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atticus
 

Registered: Mar 2007
Posts: 12600

 

01-16-12 04:41 PM


Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I would like to mention a group of traders. These are the foolish longs. Let me explain what a foolish long (or short) is. This is the trader that is overextended and has held on without using a tight stop initially. (overextended and highly leveraged traders must use stops). Most retail /public traders are overextended and highly leveraged. He has already gone well past his 2 percent of portfolio stop guideline and is now looking at his summer vacation money, his kids college money and/or the next mortgage payment etc slipping away from him( or may have to tell the wife). He then sells his position and gets out just near the bottom. He has feared that he is in front of a freight train and the next move down will destroy him(or his wife will). Of course, he has been in front of a freight train all the time and because of the overextension, he has put himself in this position. He must get out. These foolish longs sell (humans are built the same, there are other foolish longs selling near the same time that he is), and when they sell, it creates the final downward thrust as the divergence traders eyeing the chart are preparing to buy in. Then the foolish longs watch the price retrace upwards as they watch their fresh short positions getting whacked and they hold on to those. And the cycle goes on and on.

Note: Nowhere in this discussion do I mention anything to do with fundamentals.



Wow, you bumped *this* after 5+ years?

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Buy1Sell2
 

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 8117

 

07-14-12 04:33 PM


Quote from austinp:

Longs are only foolish when they keep pressing upside into a downtrend. Right now, longs are printing money hand over fist. They will continue to do so until this crystal-clear uptrend ceases to persist.

At this moment in time, replace the word "longs" with "shorts" in OP and it 100% describes what is taking place right now



Certainly can be both ways-- I agree entirely!

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