Registered: Apr 2008
06-11-09 11:21 PM
Here are some comments on the thread so far from Pete Hoyt, the Best Choice Software developer:
On page 2, last year in April 2008, I said” over the past 10 years, ADBE went up 9 out of 10 years with average of 13% from March 13 to March 27 when their earnings come out.” This year, 2009, on March 13th it closed at 18.63. On March 27th, it closed at 21.84. That is a 17% increase in stock price in 2 weeks. Nice trade. The April $20 calls went from .85 on March 13 to $2.40 on March 27, almost a triple on your money using options. Now it has gone up 10 out of 11 years during this same time period. This highly probable move occurred again, just like I spoke about it a year ago.
On page 3, if you considering Richard’s trade on GRMN, the stock went from $44.79 on 5/14 to $46.22 on 5/28 in 2008. This was a 3% move. The stock averages a 5% move during this time and it has occurred 8 out of 9 years. Why was he buying a $65 July call? The stock move happened but Richard may have lost money by going too far out of the money. Is it logical to expect a $20 move when the average move is only $2 or $3? You’ve got to be realistic in what you expect.
On page 9, I spoke about how the Dow had risen 32 out of 37 years between Oct 27 and Nov 12. Last year during one of the worst years on record, the Dow was at 8175 on Oct 27 and up to 8282 on Nov 12. The average point move over the 37 years is 1.6%, so 1.6% x 8175 is 130 points. Last year the move was 107 points. Now it is 33 out of 38 years up over this time period. This highly probable move occurred again, just like I spoke about it a year ago.
On page 17, Gobananas mentioned that he was a new owner. Since then he created a Best Choice Users Group in California and has 180 members. He is a nice guy who has no financial ties to Best Choice Software. We are happy to help him and his users group.
On page 19 of this thread, Spencer talks about the Hershey trade around Valentines Day. This move has happened 14 out of the past 15 years, with an average rise of 3.6%. What is Spencer complaining about? Does he expect perfection? If this is nothing more than a “statistical happenstance”, I’d like to see you flip a coin and get 14 out of 15 heads. There are 2^15 possibilities or 32,768 possible outcomes. There is only one possibility of getting 15 out of 15 heads and 15 possibilities of getting 14 out of 15 heads. You’ve got a lot of flipping to do to attempt to match that kind of success.
Spencer also complains about Fed Ex. Between Oct 25 and Nov 13 (which just happens to be the best time of the year for the Dow, see above), the stock went up 9 out of 10 years. Isn’t it logical to assume that there are lots of boxes being shipped before the holidays? It happens every year! It’s their busiest time. UPS also rises during this time period. Last year Fed Ex went from $54.94 at the beginning of this period to $67.14 on the close of Nov 13. That’s a 22% move in 2 weeks! What is Spencer complaining about? How did he lose money on the trade? If this is a “snake oil” recommendation, I think most traders want more of it.
Bottom line is that success occurs when you make highly probable decisions. I’ve given you some examples above, that I talked about them before the moves occurred. Don’t guess about the markets, you will probably lose. If you want to bitch go ahead. Elitetrader.com gives you a great soap box to stand on and mouth off. Joab is really good at it. With over 2000 posts, he must be a professional and I can’t compete with his skills.
Here is a trade for you arm chair experts. The Wheat market has gone up 39 out of 46 years during one 2 week time period over the course of a typical year. That is 85% of the time. It’s a great trade. I’ve given you the information. Now, for all the people who think the software is worthless, find the trade yourself. It’s a trade that will most likely make you money.
I can’t forget to tell you about this last trade. It will make you complainers crazy. One of our lady customers from Romania bought 10 – 30 cent Feb puts on CME on Feb 4, 2008. She invested $300. Two days later she sold her puts for $19,400. She told me she did what I taught her. She thinks our software is great and worth what she paid for it. She lives in Toronto Canada and attends our presentations when we are there. That is your opportunity to meet her.
Well, you may think that was a fluke. We have another trader who had 22 triples out of 25 trades in his first year of trading options. He made $250,000 profit his first year. What is his secret? Stay with these highly probable trades and use cheap options to leverage the moves. It is easier to triple a 20 cent option than to triple a $20 stock. A much smaller move is required - especially when you know the most likely course of events. If you would like to meet him, he comes to our presentations in Vancouver as he lives in western Canada.
Last year was a horrific year for long trades. Trillions of dollars were lost and made by the shorts. If you lost money trading, what did you do? If you made money what did you do? Be specific on what security and entry and exit positions. Why did you enter the trade and why did you exit the trade? You can learn from both success and failure.
I’ve given you a lot of meat. I have been very specific. Best Choice Software is a trading software designed for people who trade. Hopefully, readers of this thread can come up with more trades that either worked or didn’t work and less baseless unsubstantiated complaints.