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-- Short DAX at 7740 (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=95117)
Short DAX at 7740
Look for 7590 target
Im short since 7558 
Re: Short DAX at 7740
Quote from ASusilovic:
Look for 7590 target
Quote from makloda:
Im short since 7558
Oh well I'm long a boatload of other stuff so I wasn't hurt... yet
Quote from ASusilovic:
Don´t worry it ´ll be a hard landing !
That´s been a short squeeze ´til 7750.
Quote from makloda:
Oh well I'm long a boatload of other stuff so I wasn't hurt... yet
I wouldn't call the IPCR as a "sell off indicator" but it's a good gauge how defensive the smart money is. Usually you will see the IPCR over 3 or even 4 after a few consecutive up days. Well I woudln't mind if the smart money was right this time.. So I can cover that POS DAX
Forgot to mention...
the last time we had a OEX PCR of over 3,5 has been at the 23rd of February... when we experienced the massive selloff...
Quote from makloda:
I wouldn't call the IPCR as a "sell off indicator" but it's a good gauge how defensive the smart money is. Usually you will see the IPCR over 3 or even 4 after a few consecutive up days. Well I woudln't mind if the smart money was right this time.. So I can cover that POS DAX
Well I kinda dislike the notion that the smart money is "betting" on a sell-off. They should know you can't time sell-offs and it's next to impossible to systematically become rich playing sell-offs. Hence, I thought "defensive" (protecting recent gains) is a better word
Quote from ASusilovic:
By the way "defensive" is a smart expression, too
Quote from makloda:
Well I kinda dislike the notion that the smart money is "betting" on a sell-off. They should know you can't time sell-offs and it's next to impossible to systematically become rich playing sell-offs. Hence, I thought "defensive" (protecting recent gains) is a better word
Quote from ASusilovic:
Best indicator for a selloff in the US is the OEX PCR Ratio. As of yesterday it stays at 3,85. Therefore :
Look for the DOW and ES to correct today massively -> DAX will fall too, hard.
Take a look at the Put-Call-Ratio :
05/15/2007, 839166, 1131113, 1970279, 1.35
05/16/2007, 932992, 1352961, 2285953, 1.45
05/17/2007, 905016, 1099667, 2004683, 1.22
05/18/2007, 686096, 1435048, 2121144, 2.09
05/21/2007, 573064, 1148792, 1721856, 2.00
05/22/2007, 316277, 1218500, 1534777, 3.85
Good luck !
05/16/2007, 932992, 1352961, 2285953, 1.45
05/17/2007, 905016, 1099667, 2004683, 1.22
05/18/2007, 686096, 1435048, 2121144, 2.09
05/21/2007, 573064, 1148792, 1721856, 2.00
05/22/2007, 316277, 1218500, 1534777, 3.85
05/23/2007, 578144, 946676, 1524820, 1.64
Short covering...
Covered my short at 7776, down like 18k EUR Congrats to the bulls!
So much for the 'guesstimate'...
where can i find the oex pcr
Quote from makloda:
Covered my short at 7776, down like 18k EUR
Quote from STEERAM:
where can i find the oex pcr
Yea it's part of the game, looks like I gave away 100 points, and I had a couple contracts on
Quote from ASusilovic:
Really bad timing, makloda! Sorry for you.
Quote from makloda:
Yea it's part of the game, looks like I gave away 100 points, and I had a couple contracts on
Did you have more luck or got out early too?
DAX short 7784.00. Target : 7734
Have fun
Japan’s Corporate Service Sector rose by 1.1% versus 0.6% expected reaching a 9 year high
What are the bellweather stocks for the DAX?
See http://index.onvista.de/einzelwerte..._NOTATION=20735
See Marktkap. in Mio. € for approx. weighting.
We may see 7691 today. Still - as from yesterday - my short-term target for the DAX is 7734. Flattening my 7784 short.
If downside move is prolonged we may see 7587.50.
Sometimes, I think I´m the only one shorting the DAX. This time short at 7800.00.
stop shorting
Quote from esmjb:
stop shorting
short 7850, target 7777.50...you are right, monster trend...that´s why my calls I bought 2 month ago work so well...
Don't want to be a prick or a doubter but you keep telling us you are short but not really where you get out? What happen to your short 7800 from yesterday or all the others?
+ if you have itm calls + short futures isn't that just a delta neutral position? Hope you are buying some of those futures back or if you still have all those shorts that we hit 7000 sometime sooon!
gluck
__________________
If you can't beat them join them, he said as he was writing his application to Rotterinvest!
He'll tell you he's "averaging in"
Quote from FGBS:
Don't want to be a prick or a doubter but you keep telling us you are short but not really where you get out? What happen to your short 7800 from yesterday or all the others?
Thank God i did notshort the dax at 7740
Right now 7890
DAX @ 7935.50, another one for the hall of fame:
The DAX short entry might well appear today especially if US numbers are not well received - just imo.
So, I'll be looking for signs of a turn today or on Monday for sure but that said, my god, what an unbelievable move these last 2 days!
__________________
I paid to put GWB in there. I'll say anything I want about him.
1) My 7850 short has been stopped out yesterday at 7875
2) I covered some of my calls yesterday.
3) Went long with yesterdays close.
4) Covered my long at 7938.
5) I am right now short at 7951.00.
6) Target 7893-7900.
what ever u do...
do not short it
by july 2007
will range in 8000 to 9000
by year end 8600 to 9600
I think u should long it till july
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Quote from kalzayani:
what ever u do...
do not short it
by july 2007
will range in 8000 to 9000
by year end 8600 to 9600
I think u should long it till july
Quote from ASusilovic:
I agree with you as long as infaltion is not leering around the corner. A little reminder : did you notice the wordlwide rising yields in the last three weeks ???
Just a suggestion: Why not short GBL instead of DAX then
Quote from ASusilovic:
did you notice the wordlwide rising yields in the last three weeks ???
Quote from makloda:
Just a suggestion: Why not short GBL instead of DAX then
I saw your response. I don't have anything to add to my view. Good luck trading.
I think it is a good time to short the dax
Stopped out at 7925. 
Mean 7975...
Quote from makloda:
Im short since 7558
Covering my last DAX Call Options. And here another short : 8009.00. Moving against 8379 contracts ( 5Minute Chart ) traded...And I have a decent target : 7966.
DAX closed 7966. At least a reconciliatory end to this week. Enjoy your weekend !
seriously folks...u should not short any index almost anywhere wrldwide
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Quote from kalzayani:
seriously folks...u should not short any index almost anywhere wrldwide
nice slide
Quote from JSSPMK:
are you making an argument for only taking long trades and ignoring shorts?
Otherwise I think DAX is ready for a short here, triple failure break + divergence, why not?
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Quote from JSSPMK:
are you making an argument for only taking long trades and ignoring shorts?
Otherwise I think DAX is ready for a short here, triple failure break + divergence, why not?
By the way : me too...
Next target DAX Future 7689. Got to look after my Premium Wodka...
Na zdarovje !
7698 short term support ?
Classic move would be stop loss hunting beneath yesterdays´ lows...maybe some good old-fashioned DAX traders preparing for it...
Some wild moves in the morning in DAX. Good luck on the shorts, looks like the risk/reward setup is way better now than a week ago. Market looks nervous...
Quote from makloda:
Some wild moves in the morning in DAX. Good luck on the shorts, looks like the risk/reward setup is way better now than a week ago. Market looks nervous...
, world markets could be basing for another run. I am not bearish right now, neutralish for the time being.
Quote from JSSPMK:
but perhaps not better than day before yesterday
Quote from makloda:
Some wild moves in the morning in DAX. Good luck on the shorts, looks like the risk/reward setup is way better now than a week ago. Market looks nervous...
Making $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Congrats, don't forget to protect the gains with stops, the market has been unforgiving to bears as of late
Quote from ASusilovic:
Making $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Hitting Fibonacci Retracement 0,250( 03/14/2007 low 6483 - 04/06/2007 high 8021 ) at 7631...Maybe testing break-out / old highs at 7578...Tapped my Premium Vodka...Na zdarovje, guys !!
are you a Serb?
If you mean the south slavic people living mainly in the former Yugoslavia : no !
Perfect world today...ES hunting stops below 1507,75 ( low 05/24/2007 )...DAX following in sympathy / brotherhood ( American-German friendship )... We may see 1498,50 ES
Imagine, I am long at 7583 !!
Long 7540,50
Quote from ASusilovic:
Long 7540,50
I remember the good old days when resistance and support lines were played schoolbook-like. Nowadays it seems that the quant guys and other market participants don´t care anymore about simple market rules...well, adopting this herd-like-mentality might be one solution...but when I take a look at market fluctuations, i.e. vola, I just can comment :
SILLY, SILLY, SILLY ( sometimes I have the feeling that only sheeps are running around the markets and asking myself who´s the alpha dog in this game..)
From a traders´point of view, I have to admit that I always appreciate vola...But still, you see me shaking my head watching these exxagerated moves...
By the way : next support DAX : 7433. Have fun !
Look for 7700 DAX rebound...still long over here..market exaggerated rise in U.S. yields over 5 %..see no inflation on the front...buy opportunity...
Quote from kalzayani:
seriously folks...u should not short any index almost anywhere wrldwide
I am looking for 7700-7708 DAX target. Buying on dips.
Quote from ASusilovic:
I am looking for 7700-7708 DAX target. Buying on dips.
We will see some more vola in the next couple of days as the hype about interest rates diminishes. Longer-term outlook is up ! Market consolidation at this point a very good circumstance and opportunity for laggards to enter the market.
Quote from ASusilovic:
I am looking for 7700-7708 DAX target. Buying on dips.
Received my target - have a nice day !
covering here
I think we will some range-trading here in the next couple of days until interest rate chit-chat dies away...a little bit worried about what is going on in Palestine and about Iran Nuclear Program...IAEO ´s El Baradei and collegues loosing patience with the Mullahs in Teheran...maybe some political turmoil upcoming..
Long DAX 7668.5, target 7715.50, stop 7643
Flat 7715.50
Short here now
covered
What a classic failure swing, right at kick off, excellent.
Long DAX 7617.50, target 7667.50, stop 7592.50.
Stronger USD, weaker EUR = buy DAX !
Hey AS..., I think we use very similar entry requirements, so it looks anyway looking at a chart.
Quote from JSSPMK:
Hey AS..., I think we use very similar entry requirements, so it looks anyway looking at a chart.
Flat 7667.50.
DAX short 7773.00, stop7798, target 7723.00
feels bullish
Stop triggered.
Short 7792.00, stop 7817, target 7742
Short 7792.00, stop 7817, target 7742
Funny, funny how short-lived "inflation-fears" are...seems nobody cares anymore about rate-hikes after all this "noise" coming up...
Short here now
Short both DAX & ES now
Good idea with some call option protection => good risk / reward ratio
Quote from ASusilovic:
Good idea with some call option protection => good risk / reward ratio
AS, you seeing weakness? Getting ready to short.
I am short 8139.50 ....
But I like more about today´s markets is my good old fellow - the GERMAN BUND ! Oh yeah, I like this market ! He, he...
Quote from ASusilovic:
I am short 8139.50 ....
Do you ever trade it upon open? I find very first trades to be the most profitable in DAX, unlike S&P500 morning action DAX has a lot less of 'knee jerking' going on, relatively straight forward to get 10-20 pts.
scaling out here
Depends. I have a tridimensional approach : Long-term trades ( positions held longer - up to several weeks ), short term trades ( couple of days ) ultra-short ( intraday ). If I am in a position of strength, i.e. having a solid profitable open position I can afford to be more aggressive...at this point I am like a good puncher : I know when and where to hit the market
I see. What's your view/s on scaling out, I find it helps me to lock in profits and hold on to a trade for much longer. I ask this because quite a few traders seem to disagree with scaling out.
Once again, the answer is : depends on market movements ! Personally, I use scale orders in fast moving markets. I started DAX Future trading since inception of Deutsche Terminboserse 26th January 1990. It´s still a challenge to hit the highs and lows of movements. How many times did I miss prices for a tick or two ? Countless !!
So, yes. Scaling might be and is a very good technique not only for novice traders but also for old-timer like me :=)
Nevertheless I prefer the technique in oder to close trades rather than entering markets this way.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Once again, the answer is : depends on market movements ! Personally, I use scale orders in fast moving markets. I started DAX Future trading since inception of Deutsche Terminboserse 26th January 1990. It´s still a challenge to hit the highs and lows of movements. How many times did I miss prices for a tick or two ? Countless !!
So, yes. Scaling might be and is a very good technique not only for novice traders but also for old-timer like me :=)
Nevertheless I prefer the technique in oder to close trades rather than entering markets this way.
bear flag? PP resistance?
short again
scaled out
long here, bottom fishing
Quote from JSSPMK:
That's good news, danke
scaled out
up $670 on 1st contract in less than 10 minutes, this is near impossible to achieve consistently trading ES/NQ/ER2/YM.
yeah. DAX is a heavy-weight "Champions League" contract. No wishy-washy !
I am out of the long trade now, wow so much easier scaling out.
short here with a small stop
squeezed
AS, I see a possibility of a substantial breakout soon, what are your thoughts? 2 hour chart looks exceptionally good.
Long here
Next "resistance" for DAX 8270. Today we may see 8227-8232. But I am generally more short biased over here. Expecting at least 200 point correction over here.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Next "resistance" for DAX 8270. Today we may see 8227-8232. But I am generally more short biased over here. Expecting at least 200 point correction over here.
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long here
Long
stoped out
Sorry have been a litle bit imprecise about DAX high ( 8223 expected - 8217 actually ), but short bias correct. I expect to see tomorrow at least 8008 - 8032 area...
Target reached 8032. Flatt position. Profit + 173 points.
Short here
Stopped out -3
Great trading AS!
Another short
scaled out 1 lot +10
scaled out 2lot +24
3rd lot sold b/even
If you are short in DAX, stay short and work with trailing buy stops over here. Kind of first resistance is running at today´s high at 7994...Second resistance at 8024-8032 area...I still remain bearish as long as long as Central Banks remain hawkish. Over the weekend BIS stated that Central Banks may keep raising rates
See article here :
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=aKS3Dz0jEj0Q
Also negative : "revaluation" in CDO market still going on. Regardless of Bear Stearns rescue effort ! Better to pull the trigger now and still get good prices then later - when everything is beaten down...
Next support
1) 7883
2) 7849
3) 7813
quite tempting to go long here, but daily bias is in the opposite direction (US weekly also), trading below daily PP not helps and not too close to LOD to bottom fish, I'll pass on the Long. 3rd lot still short from this morning.
b/even on 3rd lot
short, tight stop
1st lot scaled out +9.50
2nd lot scaled out +19.00
Last lot covered +48.50
Will short with a tight stop, looking for a breakdown of LOD
didn't materialise
Very nice reversal yesterday ! Great vola. I like vola...Give me more vola...he, he...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Very nice reversal yesterday ! Great vola. I like vola...Give me more vola...he, he...
Have been short, but...I reversed my position too early that day...
Didn´t expect this move...but O.K. you have always to be eager to learn it the hard way...especially because I´m still a "young" man and below my 40´s...he, he
short here
stopped out -4
another attempt
scaled out 1 lot +9
b/even on other 2, bit whippy
I am Longing DAx at
8,284.15 7,713.61
8,364.47 7,639.54
8,435.07 7,575.60
gl
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Normally, my good old DAX trader fellows should look for the stops beneath 7906-7908...
another short
scaled out 1st lot +6, shitty price action
b/even on other 2
another short
scaled out 1st +10.5
b/even on other 2, sure tough grind for me today
short again
scaled out 1 lot +12.50
give me a break, support held so far, need the bang
scaled out 2 lot +22, come on bears!
Stop Fishing $$$$$$$$$$$$$$
I like my DAX !!!
Nothing better than a good panic
Next support :
there is a trade channel deriving from 14th of March 2007... we are right now testing the channel...7876-7883 area...
don't tell me it will reverse on divergence here
Quote from JSSPMK:
short again
scaled out 1 lot +12.50
give me a break, support held so far, need the bang
scaled out 2 lot +22, come on bears!
Long here
scaled out 1 lot +5
scaled out 2 lot +9
come on you flag!
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long here
scaled out 1 lot +5
scaled out 2 lot +9
come on you flag!
Yeah. Lunch time.
long here
scaled out 2 lots +2.5
scaled out 3 lot +9.50 and reversed 3 short
-3.5
and short again
scaled 2 lots +5
3rd b/even
Lunch is for wimps.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Yeah. Lunch time.
another short
scaled out 2 +4
3rd b/even
Long now 1 lot
-5, gonna quit while ahead
Just realised a flaw scaling out 1st +10 and 2nd +20, will be scaling out 2 lots near +10 and let 3rd run or b/even
1 min later it takes off, how many times has that happened LOL
Up 107 points Gross
AS are you short?
Same divergence as in the morning, bounced off trend line.
Intraday not anymore...after US data it seems to me we are going to see some "rate cut" scenario => banks will be in focus => heavy weighted in ES => higher DAX
...and by the way : the media will sell it as "bargain hunting"...
Quote from JSSPMK:
don't tell me it will reverse on divergence here
I don't get into fundamental analyses as I don't understand any of it, I just trade of charts.
Quote from ASusilovic:
We are still in the upward channel....05:30 p.m. CET
short
-4
another short
scaled out 2 lots +12.5
wierd action in sp futures.. someone is trying to give a positive bias.. even though world markets tanking.
german manipulation.
__________________
Trade the price action not the price.
its so blatantly obvious.. they are trying to distribute european equities at higher prices.
__________________
Trade the price action not the price.
dax should trend down as us open nears.. which is 5 hrs..away.
__________________
Trade the price action not the price.
based on us sentiment dax should be down 150 points..
__________________
Trade the price action not the price.
Ignorant lurker seeks enlightenment.
SPectre2007, when you use the term us sentiment, what are you referring to?
EURJPY spelling trouble for DAX!!! Carry Trade under pressure...
Quote from Spectre2007:
based on us sentiment dax should be down 150 points..
Quote from JSSPMK:
short
-4
another short
scaled out 2 lots +12.5
there is some fighting going on for the long term channel from march lows...as these are worked through, look for the yen carry trades unwinding...Underlying DAX has at least further room to fall to 7741 area...BUT take care...I wouldn´t be surprised if some "talk" of rate cuts will appear over the course of the trading day...short squeeze danger !!!!
Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd lot b/even
short 1 lot
3rd lot -3.5
long 1 lot
Daily PP "resisting arrest"
At last PP taken out, expecting it to provide support on retracement.
Quote from JSSPMK:
long 1 lot
Anyone scalping DAX watch out for this pattern in MACD histogram on 1 min chart as either a start of a retracement and/or reversal, especially so if paired with a divergence.
us sentiment, how the indexex finish on the close. the spooz fell apart.
__________________
Trade the price action not the price.
Fed rate cut is priced in again
The Federal Reserve is once again expected to cut interest rates by the end of the year, according to the futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade. Weak economic data from housing, manufacturing and consumer spending have pushed prices on federal funds futures higher. The price of the December futures contract implies a 56% chance of a rate cut, up from 37% earlier. It's the first time in nearly a month that the futures market is predicting a rate cut. Two weeks ago, the market was pricing in a 12% chance of a rate increase by the end of the year.
You know what I mean ? He, he...
Watch out for short squeeze !!!
short 1 lot
+5.5 don't like price action any more
short 1 lot
+13.50
short 3
scaled out 2 lots +6
3rd lot -1.5
Quote from ASusilovic:
Watch out for short squeeze !!!
1 lot short
+16
Up 82 pts Gross today, enough for today
All right JSSMPK
Danke Vertigo
This is by far the easiest future contract for scalping that I have come across, momentum is just right for scalping. I tried ES again today, -1.25 points, it was just 1 trade as ES looked better at the time than DAX, but it really is a lot slower.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Fed rate cut is priced in again
The Federal Reserve is once again expected to cut interest rates by the end of the year, according to the futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade. Weak economic data from housing, manufacturing and consumer spending have pushed prices on federal funds futures higher. The price of the December futures contract implies a 56% chance of a rate cut, up from 37% earlier. It's the first time in nearly a month that the futures market is predicting a rate cut. Two weeks ago, the market was pricing in a 12% chance of a rate increase by the end of the year.
You know what I mean ? He, he...
Who says ES couldn't goto 1518
Quote from ASusilovic:
Short squeeze done.
Quote from ASusilovic:
there is some fighting going on for the long term channel from march lows...as these are worked through, look for the yen carry trades unwinding...Underlying DAX has at least further room to fall to 7741 area...BUT take care...I wouldn´t be surprised if some "talk" of rate cuts will appear over the course of the trading day...short squeeze danger !!!!
Longing
I am Long till 8,200 folks
and adding
gl
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
long here
-5
short now
scaled out 2 lots +10
3rd lot b/even and long 3
scaled out 2 lots +9.5
mini trendline being established, let's hope for another trend day, 1 lot still long
3rd lot hit trailing stop +4.5
long 1 lot
right, let's see some upside, I assume low volatility due to FOMC later today
+3.5 volatility bit low, will get back maybe later today
Gross +32
1 lot long, if this fails to make a break I am outta ere
-3
outta 'ere
short 1, 10 min chart bearish
trailed stop +10
Quote from ASusilovic:
DAX back in channel. Play the channel !
Long 3
scaled out 2 lots +3
3rd lot +15
+60 Gross
Let's see what the FED will say
Long 3
scaled out 2 lots +17
3rd lot -2.5
Short 3
scaled out 2 lots +2
3rd lot -3.5
Long 1 lot
-0.5
long 1 lot
Quote from JSSPMK:
-0.5
long 1 lot
long 1
+6
short 3
-2
long 1
+9
short 3
scaled out 2 lots +4
3rd lot +4.5
Reversed Long 1
b/even
Long 1
-2.5
Long 3
scaled out 2 lots +7.5
3rd lot -3.5
Heading to 9200 in Sept
Not a good idea to short it here
8,600 maybe
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Long 1, looking for PP support
-4
Long 3
scaled out 2 lots +5
3rd lot b/even
wow, got out just seconds from the drop
AS, what was that action, fat finger? no data out to affect an almost 30 point drop
short 3
-1.5
reversed long
scaled out 2 lots +6.5
3rd b/even
short 1
-5
Long 1
-3
Short 3
Scaled out 2 lots +3
3rd lot b/even
reversed 3 long
scaled out 2 lots +7.5
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3
Scaled out 2 lots +3
3rd lot b/even
reversed 3 long
scaled out 2 lots +7.5
Long 1
-5.5
Short 1
+7.5 could be turning around here
Long 3, bottom fishing
-0.5
Long 3 again
scaled out 2 lots +6.5, taking no prisoners
3rd b/even
Long 1 lot
10 min setting up for upside
Would be nice to hit a home run, sure looks great, US data release might shake me out though.
with the dax being a buy IMO
2-3 Months outlook for some
GL
FME.F Buy 36.23 32.90
ADS.F Buy 47.35 42.78
ALT.F Sell 21.98 14.98
ALV.F Buy 186.22 167.69
BAS.F Buy 99.33 90.44
BAY.F Buy 59.54 53.24
BMW.F Buy 51.11 46.04
CBK.F Buy 38.08 34.15
DB1.F Sell 101.48 72.56
DBK.F Buy 117.23 106.98 ----> Buy Now IMO
DCX.F Buy 72.55 63.80
DPW.F Buy 25.75 22.97
EOA.F Buy 127.98 112.89
FME.F Buy 36.23 32.90
HEN3.F Buy 41.87 37.64
HRX.F Buy 52.19 46.24
IFX.F Buy 13.31 11.68
LHA.F Sell 21.73 19.36
LIN.F Buy 88.56 80.81
MAN.F Buy 114.72 102.11
MEO.F Buy 65.50 58.71
MUV2.F Buy 143.25 131.29
RWE.F Buy 83.94 75.28
SAP.F Buy 40.06 35.79
SCH.F Buy 107.32 101.47
SIE.F Buy 112.07 99.70
TKA.F Buy 47.93 41.82
TUI1.F Buy 20.79 18.12
VOW.F Buy 121.76 106.60
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 1 lot
10 min setting up for upside
Would be nice to hit a home run, sure looks great, US data release might shake me out though.
would have held, if not for the data release, perfect set-up otherwise
Short 1
-7
short 3
-2
short 3
-3
Short 3
b/even
short 3
-3
Going to stop shorting here, obviously not going my way +64 Gross, nice weekend to all!
Long here
stopped out -4.5
short 3
-3, bad timing
Long 3
-2, reversed
Scaled out 2 lots +13
3rd lot covered +30.5
---
Short 3
-2.5
Quote from kalzayani:
with the dax being a buy IMO
2-3 Months outlook for some
GL
FME.F Buy 36.23 32.90
ADS.F Buy 47.35 42.78
ALT.F Sell 21.98 14.98
ALV.F Buy 186.22 167.69
BAS.F Buy 99.33 90.44
BAY.F Buy 59.54 53.24
BMW.F Buy 51.11 46.04
CBK.F Buy 38.08 34.15
DB1.F Sell 101.48 72.56
DBK.F Buy 117.23 106.98 ----> Buy Now IMO
DCX.F Buy 72.55 63.80
DPW.F Buy 25.75 22.97
EOA.F Buy 127.98 112.89
FME.F Buy 36.23 32.90
HEN3.F Buy 41.87 37.64
HRX.F Buy 52.19 46.24
IFX.F Buy 13.31 11.68
LHA.F Sell 21.73 19.36
LIN.F Buy 88.56 80.81
MAN.F Buy 114.72 102.11
MEO.F Buy 65.50 58.71
MUV2.F Buy 143.25 131.29
RWE.F Buy 83.94 75.28
SAP.F Buy 40.06 35.79
SCH.F Buy 107.32 101.47
SIE.F Buy 112.07 99.70
TKA.F Buy 47.93 41.82
TUI1.F Buy 20.79 18.12
VOW.F Buy 121.76 106.60
short 3
scaled out 2lots +8
3rd lot b/even
reverse 3
scaled out 2 lots +7
b/even on 3rd
long 3
-2.5
short 3
scaled out 2 for +10.5
3rd lot +16.5
Gross +80.50 will get back later during US RTH
Long 1 lot here
Question for trading the DAX:
What are the DAX regular trading hours for the US in Eastern Time Zone?
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 1 lot here
Way to go JSS.
Quote from Sponger:
Question for trading the DAX:
What are the DAX regular trading hours for the US in Eastern Time Zone?
Quote from vertigo3:
Way to go JSS.
I just signed up for the data feed (Eurex), but I have not been unable to find some info on the futures.
I opened an account at IB, waiting for check to clear, I have an account at Tradestation (which is where I signed up for the eurex) but I cannot find any information on margin and how tradestation deals with currency. I have to call intraday today and speak to someone.
Oh, I love my DAX. Still in the MARCH channel !! I stay long with some trailing sell stops.
Stay in the channel is the name of the game !
Quote from vertigo3:
I just signed up for the data feed (Eurex), but I have not been unable to find some info on the futures.
I opened an account at IB, waiting for check to clear, I have an account at Tradestation (which is where I signed up for the eurex) but I cannot find any information on margin and how tradestation deals with currency. I have to call intraday today and speak to someone.
Thanks, JSSPMK
.
JSSPMK,
hope you enjoyed your apparent day off (yesterday)
quick question: what length bars in the chart you posted?
Did you look at yesterday's FDAX action?
I use Woodie's Pivot Points (same as classic pivots until R3), the R2 was 8189.00, high print was 8188.50.
Quote from vertigo3:
JSSPMK,
hope you enjoyed your apparent day off (yesterday)
quick question: what length bars in the chart you posted?
Did you look at yesterday's FDAX action?
I use Woodie's Pivot Points (same as classic pivots until R3), the R2 was 8189.00, high print was 8188.50.
When price action develops 2 min chart is very good to see short term formations, I enter using 1 min chart for better entries, scale out to keep profit profitable.
Short 3
Scaled out 2 +1.5 P/A stalling a bit
3rd + 5.5, might reverse
Long 3
-2.5
Long 3
-2.5
Long 3 again
Scaled out 2 lots +9
3rd lot b/e
Long 1
. 1 min chart
JSS,
I'm here watching. Still haven't had funds clear (because I sent a check to open my IB account).
British PPI due in less than an hour. I know you stay aware of U.S. data reports, will you be flat when the British PPI report comes out 4:30am East Coast Time. Just curious.
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3
-2.5
Long 3 again
Scaled out 2 lots +9
3rd lot b/e
Long 1
Quote from JSSPMK:
. 1 min chart
Quote from vertigo3:
JSS,
I'm here watching. Still haven't had funds clear (because I sent a check to open my IB account).
British PPI due in less than an hour. I know you stay aware of U.S. data reports, will you be flat when the British PPI report comes out 4:30am East Coast Time. Just curious.
Short 3
Scaled out 2 +6
Price reaction to divergence on 2 min chart, watching support
Covered 3rd +10.5, near trend line, locking profit
Gross +57.5
are you going to short at this point ? There is a strong resistance close.
lol you answered before I ask
ml77,
I hope you get your money back, all the best!
Thank you for your message.
You're really good !
1 min chart
Quote from JSSPMK:
1 min chart
Long 1
-2.5
excuse, Please, what does "DB" stand for?
Quote from vertigo3:
excuse, Please, what does "DB" stand for?
maybe 8154 is a good level to go long
but we can have a W from 8166
Long 1 lot
-4
Short 3
-3
short 3
Scaled out 2 +18
3rd -0.5
and 1 lot Long
closed +22.5
Gross +45
Short 1
-3,5
Long 1
+9.5
Short 1
+21
Gross +72
short 3
LOL high volatility day on Elite, scaled out 2 +7.5
3rd +1.5 and Long 1
come on DB
et sucks today, -1.5
short 3
out 2 lots +6.5
4 failure swings, really nice pattern on 1 minute chart
Covered 3rd lot +14
and long 1
+9.5
Gross +123.5
Quote from JSSPMK:
Covered 3rd lot +14
and long 1
+9.5
Gross +123.5
Quote from ASusilovic:
Has been a great day for DAX tarders so far...
Quote from JSSPMK:
agreed, so much easier to trade compared to ES
I won't.
Short 3
-3
Short 3 again
-4
Short 3
Scaled out 2 +11.5
3rd +17.5
Long 1
-4
a bit too volatile
Long 1
DAX long here 7885.50. Great setup for a short squeeze...he, he..
I like my DAX
Quote from ASusilovic:
DAX long here 7885.50. Great setup for a short squeeze...he, he..
Long 3
b/even, no momentum
Short 3
-1
Long 3
Scaled out 2 lots + 10
3rd lot b/e
3rd lot b/e
Short 3
All out +2 missed the move
Short 3
has to move lower now, looks like 3 failure swings
Scaled out 2 lots +8.5
3rd +7.5
Long 1
-2
Quote from JSSPMK:
Funnily enough I entered Long slightly later than your entry, lost 8.5 points on previous 1 lot trade, made up nicely on the reversal though. Great stuff AS!
Short 3
According to 1 min chart ought to breakdown now
or they could be setting a trap
Scaled out 2 lots +7
hopefully pivot is intermediate target
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3
According to 1 min chart ought to breakdown now
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3
According to 1 min chart ought to breakdown now
or they could be setting a trap
Scaled out 2 lots +7
hopefully pivot is intermediate target
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3
According to 1 min chart ought to breakdown now
or they could be setting a trap
Scaled out 2 lots +7
hopefully pivot is intermediate target
JSS,
in that chart posted, "result 4 lower peaks," what numbers are you using for the MACD?
On a 1 min chart, my standard (12,26,9) histogram looks nothing like yours.
Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd lot +30
Gross +89.5
;=)
DAX Future = You got to love this contract ! $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Got my Whiskey bottle right next to me, my Cuban Cohibas while watching this great market !! Have fun, enjoy your life boyz !
Quote from vertigo3:
JSS,
in that chart posted, "result 4 lower peaks," what numbers are you using for the MACD?
On a 1 min chart, my standard (12,26,9) histogram looks nothing like yours.
Standard settings also here
Quote from ASusilovic:
Proud of you !!!
JSS,
I like to use an 8-18-6 but I can tell you that the crosses and the histogram are virtually the same as 12-26-9
I also like to see volume bars and when there is a jump in volume that pushes price to highs, after there is some profit taking (like a hammock) I watch the volume that comes into the retest of the most recent swing high, if it's not higher, tight stops.
I am still studying the FDAX with some other indicators.
Quote from vertigo3:
JSS,
I like to use an 8-18-6 but I can tell you that the crosses and the histogram are virtually the same as 12-26-9
I also like to see volume bars and when there is a jump in volume that pushes price to highs, after there is some profit taking (like a hammock) I watch the volume that comes into the retest of the most recent swing high, if it's not higher, tight stops.
I am still studying the FDAX with some other indicators.
, whenever EOD might be, be it whole day or half hour.
Short 1
+9
I think 8100 likely intermediate target for now, waiting for another opportunity, histogram too radical to re-short, need to see some range reduction first
Long 1
might reverse trade with 3 lots
+2 for now
Short 3
-3.5
short 3
-2.5
short 3
-3 (-16 Gross)
Short 3
-3.5
Short 3
-1
Standing aside for now (-29.5 Gross)
Short 3
-3
Long 3, bottom fishing...towards 8180
-3.5
Long 3 (-49 Gross so far)
b/even
Long 3
come on, next gear
Scaled out 2 lots +14.5
regardless of whethe using 12-26-9 or 8-18-6, the biggest difference between MACD and the MACD I run is that I run a percent based MACD. WHy? because if you take the time to look at extremes in the MACDPC (PC for percent) then you can recognize envelopes of normalcy based on percentage move, not nominal price movement.
The macdpcvar1000 in the chart is just a regular MACD, but I have divided the measures by the longer MA (26 xaverage for 12-26-9 and 18 for 8-18-6) since the intraday charts movements are so small, I take the time to multiply the lines by 100000 just to bring the numbers up to whole numbers. It really doesn't matter whether you use a multiplier to bring the numbers up to whole numbers or not, if you have a percent based macd in your charting tools, all you have to do is eyeball the chart and put a horizontal line on it at extremes.
What happens when you do this? You can see that certain levels above and below the -0- line can be predictive of movements in price.
An extreme reading in either direction is showing you enthusiasm for either buying or selling.
In my brief studies of the FDAX, It looks like on the 1 minute bars, the +70 and the -70 level for the slower moving macd line are predictive of future price movement.
If the the macd line (slower line marked in thin red in first sub-chart) breaks above or below +/- 70 then that suggests extreme enthusiasm. My observation is that once you get a reading of extreme like this, there should be another move in that same direction (after a period of consolidation) does it work everytime. NO. Is it worth looking at. I think so.
I have had these "70" lines on the FDAX chart for a few weeks and here is the simple way I view them. If there is a reading above the 70 line, bullish, but once the histogram drops below -0-, then the markets are consolidating the gains.
WHen I see a reading above 70 I expect the price range at that swing high to at least be retested. As long as the macd lines remain above -0-, then when histogram crosses up through -0- it's a buy.
Understand, these percent based MACD lines move exactly the same as the regular macd, so if you want to use the regular MACD and pick a "line near the highs" or a line near the lows, you can do that, but I like percent based because it is absolute. The price lines are most likely a function of price volatility so they could/should change over time, but basically, percent based is giving you envelopes of enthusiasm, and enthusiasm tends to linger and cause another move in the same direction.
I am running out of time, JSSPMK, and I have to prepare for the US market so I can't really take much more time.
I've attached a chart, obviously action over the past few trade days has been kind of exagerated, but there are examples of these measurements.
Lines on the price chart are 21 period Hull moving average (changes color from red to blue)
and the thick blue line is just a 40 period exponential moving average.
You can look at this on your own charts and discover relationships. Obviously in a bull market, retests/undercuts of the swing lows commensurate with -70 readings might not occur.
Overall, I maintain a positive view for prices as long as the MACD lines are above -0-. Especially after a macdpc > +70.
Readings above the -0- line that constantly put in higher lows you're in a bull run.
After a move above 70, I expect some consolidation. As long as there has been a move above 70, I would be inclined to buy a move above the -0- line by the histogram.
A reading (thin red, slower moving macd line) above 70, and I expect to see (at some point, a retest and or a breakout above the price range of the price bar on the +70 reading. If there is a negative divergence in the MACD lines at the time of the retest, or/and if the volume generated is decidedly lower than the volume at the previous swing high, I would use a tight stop.
After a +70 reading, I also look at the first test of the -0- line (from above) of the regular macd lines as a potential for a bounce. Watch the histogram at that time.
On -70 readings, it can tag and turn up and then no retest of the price range at the time of the -70 reading needs to occur.
Also the more time below -70, the more bearish it is and there will likely have to be an undercut of the previous swing lows and you will probably have to see a positive divergence accompanied by volume capitulation, but if price is well below the swing low of the previous -70 reading, the new -70 reading does not necessarilly have to represent a positive divergence. Sellers have sold, price has undercut the previous swing low because MORE sellers have sold. How many can be left? watch the volume for positive divergence (less volume).
Additional sidelight on volume, especially on 1 minute charts), first volume spike in a decline usually not at lows. In 1 minute charts, a huge volume spike on sharp decline in price is often followed by lower prices and another (smaller volume) capitulation.
In terms of volume on the
AFTER a negative 70, First test of -0- line by the macd is often a failure and prices have to consolidate and/or retrace to retest swing low. That's when you want to look for positive divergences bewteen price and macd lines. but if price just consolidates sideways, wait for histogram to do a humpty-dump. that is a move above the -0- line while price cannot exceed most recent recovery high, but then the next move above the -0- line by the histogram with a higher low than the first retracement and you're probably off to the races for an intraday short-covering lift.
I've run out of time.
If MACD is below -0- and histogram crosses below -0- negative.
If macd is abov -0- and histogram crosses above -0- psoitive.
another example of +70 readings from 7/11/07
example of NEGATIVE macd (below -0-) and cross lower of histo down through -0-
volume declining spike, lower prices with lower volume for potential turn higher.
example of -70 tag and turn, humpty-dump,
example of higher prices less volume (with no MACDPC readings >+70)
now go out there and make a million
Thanks for charts and info, no indicator pattern will look exactly the same on 2 different charting platforms, I used Ninja, TT, Esignal, zig-zags looked different on all three sources, it's not just settings but an algorithm used to calculate any indicator.
If you make your chart larger and histogram/macd (12.26.9) only indicator on chart, also try and squeeze your price bars a bit, by doing so you are standing back to see a clearer picture. I am more than certain that you will see 4 lower peaks in histogram.
I thought I would post a classic divergence and they don't get much better than that IMO.
P.S. Earlier today 2 min chart DAX
how about some times and a date for the chart you posted
never mind, I see when it was
And here is another example of 4 lower peaks, 4th one is equal to 3rd one, but that is OK as price moves higher than on 3rd peak. 2 min chart, fresh action.
Long 3
-3
hanging the gloves for today
Short 3
-1
short 3
Looking for support break H&S
Here we go
headfake?
resistance failed
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3
-1
short 3
Short 3
-1
Short 3
-0.5
Short 3
-3
Long 3
All out +2
Short 3, intermediate top in? 3 lower peaks now
I can't afford to swing trade it AS
Scaled out 2 lots +11
DAX back in March Channel. No need to short this market. Stay with the wave and relax
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3
-1
Short 3
-0.5
Short 3
-3
Long 3
All out +2
Short 3, intermediate top in? 3 lower peaks now
I can't afford to swing trade it AS
Scaled out 2 lots +11
Long was closed -4
Gross +24.5 so far, b/e on last Friday
Long 3
-3.5
setting up for a long IMO now
Long 3
4 rising lows + divergence, looking good
2 min chart
DO NOT headfake me, u bastards!
-10, swines!
Long 3
3 min chart possible reversal, but I don't like the way 10 min chart is looking
scaled out 2 lots +9.5
3rd b/e
Long 3, 5 min setting up now, come on
DB! let's roll! And take out HOD LOL
Quote from JSSPMK:
AS, what's it like trading OPM? Must be easier in some ways in comparison to trading your own.
7:26 East Coast time, potential bull flag in FDAX?
Quote from vertigo3:
7:26 East Coast time, potential bull flag in FDAX?
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3, 5 min setting up now, come on
DB! let's roll! And take out HOD LOL [/B]
I was referring to 2 min chart. I have not looked at hourly charts for FDAX.
Just looked at hourly, interesting, upside breakout looks more likely than breakdown.
Quote from vertigo3:
I was referring to 2 min chart. I have not looked at hourly charts for FDAX.
Just looked at hourly, interesting, upside breakout looks more likely than breakdown.
I don't
Thanks, I never thought to look at one like that with such a deep price spike in the middle,
In your chart, I was looking at the price action following the second peak (hitting your trendline of resistance), and the slope downward in prices after that. Mine never brokeout, your observation was the moneymaker though
TY, but I am struggling today
hey jss, dax looks like its building up stops overhead. Its looks to be creating a wedge on the 3 month chart.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI&t=3m
__________________
Trade the price action not the price.
Quote from Spectre2007:
hey jss, dax looks like its building up stops overhead. Its looks to be creating a wedge on the 3 month chart.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI&t=3m
Quote from JSSPMK:
Quote from JSSPMK:
AS, what's it like trading OPM? Must be easier in some ways in comparison to trading your own.
Quote from JSSPMK:
and entry of 1 min chart
Long 1
+10.5
Long 3, 10 min chart's histogram is ready for upside now, DB on 1 min, come on!!!
Long 3
-0.5
Short 3
-4.5
Long 3
-3 give me a break!
Short 3
-5
Long 3
will you break already for f sake
scaled out 2 lots +10.5
UP up up, come on!
possible weakness in S&P now on 2 min chart, possible 3 lower peak divergence
3rd lot +7
Long 3
scaled out 2 +5.5
3rd +6 and reverse 3
-1
short 3
-3
Short 3, top in?
3 lower peaks now 1 min
scaled out 2 +13.5
3rd b/even
Gross +74, but what a struggle phew, loads of r/ts
Long 3 flag?
ouch -3
Long 3
all out + 3, no momentum, not enough short?
Hourly ES and DAX are showing a breakout pattern, but who knows.
Short 3
scaled out 2 lots +2.5
3rd -1
Long 3 -1.5
Short 3
Break please
-1
Short 3
-1.5
Short 3
-1 got a feeling this is a trap
Last attempt short 3 ES looking weak on 2 min chart IMO (3 lower peaks), stop above HOD
KAWABANGA!!!
Quote from JSSPMK:
Break please
-1
Short 3
-1.5
Short 3
-1 got a feeling this is a trap
Last attempt short 3 ES looking weak on 2 min chart IMO (3 lower peaks), stop above HOD
KAWABANGA!!!
3rd lot +25
Gross +105.5 off to the bar
ES obviously drives DAX during US RTH IMO, here is my entry off 2 min ES chart on DAX.
Long 3, too good to miss
taking off 2 -0.5
stop below LOD on 3rd lot
AS, have a look at this chart. I am aware that you prefer to trade channel at the moment, but what do you think about this? This specific pattern is a money maker on 1,2,3,5,10,15,30,60,240 minute charts, this is a multi day format chart. I think that's a bit scary for the longs, they better take out that resistance IMO and soonish.
Actually I just spotted a 4th peak there, such a sneaky little peaky LOL
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3, too good to miss
taking off 2 -0.5
stop below LOD on 3rd lot
Quote from JSSPMK:
AS, have a look at this chart. I am aware that you prefer to trade channel at the moment, but what do you think about this? This specific pattern is a money maker on 1,2,3,5,10,15,30,60,240 minute charts, this is a multi day format chart. I think that's a bit scary for the longs, they better take out that resistance IMO and soonish.
Actually I just spotted a 4th peak there, such a sneaky little peaky LOL
long 3
scaled out 2 lots +5,5
3rd b/e
Long 3
b/e
long 3
-3
long 3 same entry level
-3
long 3
-3.5
Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd b/e
Long 3
b/e
long 3
-3
long 3 same entry level
-3
long 3
-3.5
__________________
If you can't beat them join them, he said as he was writing his application to Rotterinvest!
Long 3
scaled out 2 +9
Expecting breakout of the W price action towards HOD
+10 on 3rd
Short 3
Quote from FGBS:
JJSPMK: No reply on the "Technical analysis doesn't work" thread? LMAO
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3
scaled out 2 +9
Expecting breakout of the W price action towards HOD
+10 on 3rd
Short 3
3rd b/e
short 3
-2
long 3
-2
long 3
Scaled out 2 +5.5
3rd b/e
short 3
-2
short 3
-3
short 3
+2.5
Short 3
-3
Hate this PA, enough!
Long 3
taken around x3 amount of heat, support held so far
lift off
-11
Failed to look at 3 min chart, hence bought into the wall
Long 3
b/e
Long 3
-2
revrsed 3
scaled out 2 +10
JSS,
what do you mean by "the wall"
Quote from vertigo3:
JSS,
what do you mean by "the wall"
Quote from JSSPMK:
-11
Failed to look at 3 min chart, hence bought into the wall
Long 3
b/e
Long 3
-2
revrsed 3
scaled out 2 +10
Buying on EVERY dip.
Quote from JSSPMK:
don't bounce
3rd +14
short 3
-4
short 3
Still buying on EVERY Dip !
I have been overtrading
Quote from ASusilovic:
Still buying on EVERY Dip !
Long 3
scaled out 2 lots +10
3rd +7
Short 3
+0.5 protective stop, mixed signal in ES
Short 3
-3.5
Short 3
All out +3
Short 3
All out +4.5
Short 3
-5
Gross -14
Reducing my DAX long positions 50 %. Trailing stops for the rest.
Re: Short DAX at 7740
Quote from ASusilovic:
Look for 7590 target
Stay long in DAX. Still a lot of retailers short because of "ongoing" subprime "crisis". He, he, good opprotunity for further short squeeze of weak positions !!
Only 2 trades today, book perfect correlated set-ups between DAX & ES.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Stay long in DAX. Still a lot of retailers short because of "ongoing" subprime "crisis". He, he, good opprotunity for further short squeeze of weak positions !!
Looks bearish. I know. But I am a diehard dip-buyer at this point ! The weak Dollar makes me comfortable for the U.S. markets. A lot of people do not recognize that a huge part of profits from DOW components are earned outside U.S. ! For example Citigroup´s international revenue and net income rose 34% and 35%, respectively, in the second quarter ! That´s what I call modern asset diversification ! Anyway, good U.S. markets always good for the rest of the world. Therefore, Europe should underperform the U.S. in the coming months because of strong Euro, but positive bias will persist. Stay long in DAX !
I will see what short term charts show tomorrow, it does look like a book perfect head & shoulders followed by an expected squeeze and now a positive closure for bears, keeping in mind an extended histogram declining peaks + divergence makes case stronger to be trading from the short side tomorrow IMO.
short 3
scaled out 2 +8
3rd lot +26.5
JSS,
3 questions
1) where are you located?
2) when do Dax futures open relative to the cash Dax market?
3) when does London cash start trading relative to the DAX cash?
thanks
long 3
scaLED OUT 2 +10.5
North London
http://www.eurexchange.com/trading/...e=trading_hours
FTSE opens 9am CT, an hour after dax
3rd lot -0.5
Long 3
scaled out 2 +9.5
3rd +15, don't like the stalling
divergence bounce almost complete IMO
short 3
scaled out 2 lots +9
3rd +20.5
long 1 stop below lod
Quote from JSSPMK:
scaled out 2 lots +9
3rd +20.5
long 1 stop below lod
DAXelicious
trend line break?
cool, towards hod?
Basing for upside?
Quote from JSSPMK:
scaled out 2 lots +9
3rd +20.5
long 1 stop below lod
W now, good luck to all Longs!
I might get long sometime during next retracement, when/if ES provides a buy set-up
Short 3
scaled out 2 lots +6.5
3rd lot +15
Quote from ASusilovic:
Stay long in DAX. Still a lot of retailers short because of "ongoing" subprime "crisis". He, he, good opprotunity for further short squeeze of weak positions !!
Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd +8, don't like PA
Gross +143.50
+171.50 actually, TY!
Covering 3rd lot short from earlier today, doesn't happen often that 1 lot reaches 100+ points.
It is really amazing to see how you can move FDAX with ridiculous 4500 contracts 60 points - happened yesterday around 9 p.m. CET. This kind of BS would not happen 15 years ago ! Although I always appreciate VOLA, I have to admit these kind of movements should not happen in a "mature" market...
Is this it?
Is this the ONLY active DAX thread on ET?
Looks like there was support at 7750/51 then.
Quote from ASusilovic:
It is really amazing to see how you can move FDAX with ridiculous 4500 contracts 60 points - happened yesterday around 9 p.m. CET. This kind of BS would not happen 15 years ago ! Although I always appreciate VOLA, I have to admit these kind of movements should not happen in a "mature" market...
"Buy LOW, sell HIGH" is still (ImO) THE main reason why technical analyses in its most basic of forms works and doesn't for the ones that try to use it being "in the middle" of a directional oscillation followed by disbelief in technical analyses.
JSSPMK,
Thank you for taking the time to post your trades, but more important, your charts.
Here's something I want to point out to you to observe. Maybe you will find it meaningless, maybe you will find it useful.
I watch the histogram now, only because of the characteristics you have pointed out, but I want to point something out that I have noticed. It seems to increase the chances of a strong move, but this is nothing I have quantified, it is the result of just looking at charts since I noticed it a couple of weeks ago.
A double diverge. I am not talking about 2 lower (or higher) bumps in the histogram (your observations about the series of histogram divergences caused me to try to understand what else could increase confidence of a strong move (up or down).
Here's what I have noticed. We'll use a bearish case scenario. Price moves to new high ( or retests price rang eof previous swing high), when this occurs, the histogram measure is in negative divergence (that's divergence #1), AND, at the same time, macd lines (not histogram the actual MACD line and its signal liine) are also in divergence (that's the second divergence, the "double divergence."
The second arrow for each of the buy/sell arrows you displayed on the chart you posted are what I'm talking about.
At those second arrows, not only is there divergence in the histogram, but there is divergence in the macd line and signal line.
Headlines due
** 4:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index expectations 106.5 last reported 107.0
** 4:00am EUR German Ifo Business Expectations Index expectations 102.3 last reported 102.8
8215 - 7697 = 518. 518*100 /8215 = 6,3 %...=> time for retracement ???
Double DIverge on 2 minute FDAX
Quote from vertigo3:
JSSPMK,
Thank you for taking the time to post your trades, but more important, your charts.
Here's something I want to point out to you to observe. Maybe you will find it meaningless, maybe you will find it useful.
I watch the histogram now, only because of the characteristics you have pointed out, but I want to point something out that I have noticed. It seems to increase the chances of a strong move, but this is nothing I have quantified, it is the result of just looking at charts since I noticed it a couple of weeks ago.
A double diverge. I am not talking about 2 lower (or higher) bumps in the histogram (your observations about the series of histogram divergences caused me to try to understand what else could increase confidence of a strong move (up or down).
Here's what I have noticed. We'll use a bearish case scenario. Price moves to new high ( or retests price rang eof previous swing high), when this occurs, the histogram measure is in negative divergence (that's divergence #1), AND, at the same time, macd lines (not histogram the actual MACD line and its signal liine) are also in divergence (that's the second divergence, the "double divergence."
The second arrow for each of the buy/sell arrows you displayed on the chart you posted are what I'm talking about.
At those second arrows, not only is there divergence in the histogram, but there is divergence in the macd line and signal line.
Quote from JSSPMK:
AS, any thoughts on Euro?
Weekly chart, obviously I would have said bearish
EUR / USD ? => Weaker EUR of course ! I would suggest to stay short the next half year !
Buying aggressively FDAX at 7440-7450. Target : 7600 !! This market meltdown is ridiculous ! IMAO. I have to admit that I undestimated the "hedge" exposure of markets, but according to yesterday´s develpoments, I have more then doubts about the professionalism of market partcipants ! I expect new highs in the coming weeks. Markets are sound, P/E ratios conservative. Thank you bearz for the buy opportunity ! Bargain hunting is the name of the game !
I love my DAX ! Decent profit in 25 Minutes ! HAHAHAHAH
DAX just rallied 100 points in what like 30 minutes? lol
Just wait until I engage the sixth gear of my FERRARI FDAX model...
I love my DAX !
Complete reversal, DAX now in the green lol
BULLS fighting back !
Hope this volatility lasts into the month end. It was tough trying to take 10 or 20 ticks during Euro mornings - now its moving over a hundred ticks !! nice.
My interpretation of a "bear" market....IMAO!!
Bearz being sqeezed...
short 3
scaled out 2 +10.5
3rd +31.5
long 3
all out +5.5
Long 1
-11
Long 3, bottom fishing
scaled out 2 lots +5
nice mini divergence on 3 minute chart
vertigo, macd coming around on 1 min
+50.5 on 3rd lot, more heat than I normally would have tolerated, trend line held.
Gross +118.50
I have been out and was unable to trade the sell off into the MOC, but still wanted to post a 5 min and 2 min charts as they are just too good of an example of exploiting signal on higher time frame triggered by a lower time frame's histogram.
Nice weekend to all
P.S. Correlation between ES and DAX is imperative during US RTH ImO.
Has been a bad week for me - although my portfolio is hedged. Didn´t expect this sellout, i.e. spike in vola.
Fundamentally, nothing has changed. O.K. there´s some credit spread widening on the way. But, so what ? This is normal repricing of risk. Some might argue that credit widening has effect of raising interest rates...HA, ha...But bear in mind this does not apply to the whole economy in U.S. !!!
Does it have any implications on world economy ? Are U.S. subprime mortgage worries that important to global economy ?
Answer : Not as much as mainstream media wants us to believe !
The yield at the long end of the curve is below 5 %.
Japan still with very low interest rates, even when BOJ hikes in August. Who cares about a quarter hike ??
Carry trades will come back. Definetely.
Oil prices in U.S. going up - imported U.S. inflation going up- U.S. exports pretty decent => might be good setup for a stronger USD in coming month.
And finally : Do I expect slowing earnings by U.S. compamanies ? Well, have to differentiate on this issue :
certain industries - like real estate and mortgage related will have a hard time. But all others are benefitting from a buoyant global economic environment.
Therefore : this correction is in some way very good for the markets. It gives money managers the possibility to put some extensive cash reserves to work.
This is a bargain hunting opportunity.
short 3
-3
long 3
all out +1
Long 3 -3.5
Long 3
-4
Short 3
should be correct this time
scaled out 2 +11.5
perfect build up, let's continue with last Friday's action
3rd lot -6.5
short 3
-3.5
short 3
c'mon 5min!
scaled out 2 +12
3d lot -2.5
Short 3
b/e
short 3
holoding, possible 3rd last peak
almost at "puke point", still possible 3rd lower peak
-8.5 doesn't look right any longer
Bullish slow grind days are not my cup of tea at all, this on short term charts looks like might be one of those days, who knows, -26.5 Gross so far, will be looking out for better build ups later.
Short 3 off 3 min chart
b/e
short 3
-1.5
short 3
c'mon sellers for god sake, this is ridiculous p/a
retrace you bastard
Quote from JSSPMK:
short 3
c'mon sellers for god sake, this is ridiculous p/a
retrace you bastard
I wouldn't short the DAX, heck no, look at stoxx 50, ES, etc all up. Why fight the trend? I am looking for a pullback in stoxx 50 to get long. Good luck with that short.
-20 & enough for today, -91 Gross
Quote from dandxg:
I wouldn't short the DAX, heck no, look at stoxx 50, ES, etc all up. Why fight the trend? I am looking for a pullback in stoxx 50 to get long. Good luck with that short.
Quote from JSSPMK:
win some, lose some, hopefully win more, I kinda had a feeling that this would be a slow grind trend day, but thinking and trading a semi mechanical system is a different matter, so far I've been doing OK, today is obviously a shitter, we all have them
Quote from PointOne:
Maybe now.
OK, just had a Volatility expansion - watch for FTT followed by decreasing volume marking the start of the retrace.
Quote from dandxg:
True, true, been there more than a few times. Good luck.
Quote from JSSPMK:
To me FTT is seen in rising/declining histogram, on most occassions volume would decrease on 2nd and 3rd thrusts, so why watch it? Then volume comes in with momentum after a break of level, with histogram I am in earlier, basically in before point of break is touched.
Quote from dandxg:
I wouldn't short the DAX, heck no, look at stoxx 50, ES, etc all up. Why fight the trend? I am looking for a pullback in stoxx 50 to get long. Good luck with that short.
short 3 off 5 min chart
-2.5
short 3
scaled out 2 +9
Quote from ASusilovic:
I wouldn´t short the DAX either. The trend is you friend. And by the way =>
1)The risk of owning corporate bonds dropped by the most in at least three years
2)J&J to Cut Up to 4 Percent of Jobs, Shut Facilities
3) U.S. stocks rose for a second day on better-than-estimated earnings and renewed takeover speculation. ;=)
I could give you some more reasons, but I think that´s enough
Hourly charts ES/DAX (the way I view them) suggest a re-touch of pivot and perhaps more
Divergence based retracement complete ImO, let's see some more downside (please )
Quote from JSSPMK:
short 3 off 5 min chart
-2.5
short 3
scaled out 2 +9
Quote from JSSPMK:
but there are mini trends within longer term trends, I prefer shorter term AS
Quote from ASusilovic:
I like every trend : short-term, mid-term, long-term in FDAX....I like my DAX
Short 3 off 30 min chart
Scaled out 2 +10.5
bombs away
3rd +23.5
wouldn't be surprised to see it crash through S1, but I saw some mixed signals and locking profit seemed a sensible thing to do.
Long 1
-5.5
Long 3 off 5 min chart
scaled out 2 lots +6
+/- 7,520 expected based on divergence
3rd lot +35
C'mon!!!
Gross +86
Quote from JSSPMK:
+/- 7,520 expected based on divergence
AS, a buying opportunity for a swing?
Fuck me, what a turnaround, wicked!
That's why DAX is such a great daytrading/scalping future, we, retail traders, can make extremely good returns riding just part of the range that DAX average daily oscillations offer.
short 3
-0.5
oh, forgot about I/r statement later on, sidelines for now in that case
short 1
-4
short 3
scaled out 2 lots +5.5
-0.5 3rd
Short 3 off 5 min chart, looking at possible 3 failure on 1 min chart as a lead
covered 2 lots +5
10 minute chart looks promising, holding 1 lot short.
ImO 120 minute and 240 minute charts indicate that more downside is near.
Quote from JSSPMK:
scaled out 2 lots +5.5
-0.5 3rd
Short 3 off 5 min chart, looking at possible 3 failure on 1 min chart as a lead
covered 2 lots +5
10 minute set-up and trendline target
I find it near impossible to trade long-term charts, but it does help once you are on the right side off a longer-term chart. 4 hour chart here, ImO 3rd lower peak on the way creating 3 failure swings/divergence, I will most likely be selling resistance @ trendline, hopefully with a help of 1 minute chart.
long 3 off 1 min chart buying pivot near LOD
-2.5
Long 3 again
-1
long 3
scaled out 2 lots +8
3rd +10 expectng 3 lower peak to get short
almost 3rd lower peak present and divergence based retracement to mid range has been achieved
Short 3
possible 4th failure swing (1 min)
should get lower now
I'll either get blown out or not, 5th failure now
Scaled out 2 lots +7.5
----> S1?
or basing near pivot
it does look like bulls are trying to work a bullish DB on 2 minute chart, staying short 1 lot for now
Quote from JSSPMK:
AS, a buying opportunity for a swing?
Fuck me, what a turnaround, wicked!
That's why DAX is such a great daytrading/scalping future, we, retail traders, can make extremely good returns riding just part of the range that DAX average daily oscillations offer.
Quote from JSSPMK:
almost 3rd lower peak present and divergence based retracement to mid range has been achieved
Short 3
possible 4th failure swing (1 min)
should get lower now
I'll either get blown out or not, 5th failure now
Scaled out 2 lots +7.5
----> S1?
or basing near pivot
it does look like bulls are trying to work a bullish DB on 2 minute chart, staying short 1 lot for now
Quote from ASusilovic:
JSSPMK, I am already on vacation and for the further next two weeks ! I have hedged FDAX and I am long, eagerly waiting for some further dip buying opportunity... There are so many retailers short the markets because of all this "credit crunch", subprime-mania - and as always it will be proved that they are on the wrong side of the fence ! GL + GT for all of ET! Now I am going to take a nip of this formidable Premium Vodka they are offering here...he, he...
Quote from JSSPMK:
almost 3rd lower peak present and divergence based retracement to mid range has been achieved
Short 3
possible 4th failure swing (1 min)
should get lower now
I'll either get blown out or not, 5th failure now
Scaled out 2 lots +7.5
----> S1?
or basing near pivot
it does look like bulls are trying to work a bullish DB on 2 minute chart, staying short 1 lot for now
Stops Fishing FDAX...Look for 7375 area...Buying opportunity...Everything below 7400 !!
BUY, buy, buy...
Quote from ASusilovic:
BUY, buy, buy...
Short 3, off 5 minute chart, OK potential to set-up 2nd lower peak and could be double top on shorter term chart
-3.5
Short 3
-0.5
short 3
-3.5
short 3
-2
Short 3
scaled out 2 lots +10
3rd b/e
Still in downtrend on longer term charts, 3 min chart about to form a possible triple divergence, watching 1 min chart now (already 2nd lower peak on 3 min)
Short 3
scaled out 2 lots +6
we got 3rd lower peak, tiny one
centerline cross now hopefully for some momentum acceleration
Some resistance over here ...we need a clear break through 7499. If break-thorugh in 60 MIN Candle look for 7560-7580 area...GL+GT
Quote from JSSPMK:
Still in downtrend on longer term charts, 3 min chart about to form a possible triple divergence, watching 1 min chart now (already 2nd lower peak on 3 min)
Stay long in FDAX, work with trailing stops, looks like we´re bottoming out here... meanwhile I am going to take part in a golf tournament over here...got to work on my handicap....GL+GT
Quote from JSSPMK:
Target R2
short 3
-0.5
Stay long FDAX...maybe a little bit overbought, but so what ? Next couple of weeks trend is up ! Have a nice day !
Long 3
-3.5
Short 3, near 7500 is target
scaled out 2 lots +5.5 waiting for pivot NOT to hold
Bulls still buying intraday pivot here, but I am banking on yesterdays divergence on 30 min chart to take price near 7500 before any upside IF there is to be one of course.
-3 on 3rd lot
Long 3
AS, I see what you're talking about, 240 and daily look like a real good bottom, a triple one in fact, histogram looking extra good on 240 and daily, let weekly and monthly charts take over. We are closing in on Autumn and buying normally resumes about this time during bull markets.
Bears do not have a good technical case now, weekly divergence on S&P500 has probably run its coarse now, we might get a basing period for a while though.
scaled out 2 lots +5
b/e on 3rd
price trying to settle here on short term charts, defenitely smells like a basing period, moving average starting to flatten, still shopping around on 1 min chart for entry.
buying pivot here, off the lows, low risk
Going to try and hold all 3 lots, bottom looks too good.
Quote from JSSPMK:
AS, I see what you're talking about, 240 and daily look like a real good bottom, a triple one in fact, histogram looking extra good on 240 and daily, let weekly and monthly charts take over. We are closing in on Autumn and buying normally resumes about this time during bull markets.
Bears do not have a good technical case now, weekly divergence on S&P500 has probably run its coarse now, we might get a basing period for a while though.
Holding 3 long, stop trailed at b/e for now
All out +28
Will look for better entry, 3 min chart is bearish
Gross +91.50
nice trade
TY!
Long 3
Trying to establish trendline
divergence 2 minute, ought to retrace back up to 7560 and hopefully more
added 2 more lots at pivot
-1 on latter 2 lots
probably just a headfake here, divergence too good, should take off, c'mon!
added 2 lots at pivot again
Latter 2 lots +12.5
3 lots still long from 7,551.50
there's been so many formations suggesting upside that hasn't happened yet that it makes me think that p/a is going to explode some time soon, to the upside ImO.
-21.5 on 3 lots.
+50 gross so far
shook me out, easy to fall prey being a weaker hand
all that over unit labour costs, weren't ready for that sort of reaction
histogram too intense to be taking a trade here, will wait for p/a near pivot or S1
long 3
-3.5
long 3
c'mon, fade news
-1.5
Gross +35
my patience has run out
Long 3
squeeze c'mon!
c'mon 7500! push bulls you morons
scaled out 2 lots +25
short 1 lot as hedge
still long 1 lot from before +30 on it so far
short covered +5
3rd long closed +21
Gross +111
Long 3
Scaled out 2 +15
fade da news! lol
Quote from JSSPMK:
posted around 9.30pm EST
c'mon 7500! push bulls you morons
I think I scared them
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3
Scaled out 2 +15
fade da news! lol
Quote from JSSPMK:
c'mon 7500! push bulls you morons
Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd lot +85
Gross +226! Bring it on!
7610 resistance. Need to break for further upside momentum...next target 7675...Still working with trailing stops...if break above 7675, go aggressive with buy stops...target 7770 !!! Hav a nice day
Quote from ASusilovic:
Gross +226 ?? GREAT !! Well done !! Where´s the party goin´on ??
Quote from JSSPMK:
It's not the same as your whole position gross profits, I am just working on total point gain x amount of lots traded. still a blast yesterday TY!
we might see some correction over here...kind of breather...
Breather over...buy !!!
Quote from JSSPMK:
Quote from JSSPMK:
AS, I see what you're talking about, 240 and daily look like a real good bottom, a triple one in fact, histogram looking extra good on 240 and daily, let weekly and monthly charts take over. We are closing in on Autumn and buying normally resumes about this time during bull markets.
Bears do not have a good technical case now, weekly divergence on S&P500 has probably run its coarse now, we might get a basing period for a while though.
Quote from JSSPMK:
AS, look at these 2 hour charts, I did suspect bear flag p/a, this histogram + divergence certainly confirms a bear flag, this whole thing might crash big soon.
Take care, BNP Paribas freezes three funds amid subprime concern ! Most probably we will hear from other market participants, too, about their messy investments ! Truth about engagement comes in well dosed portions !
Stay tuned for August 15, as the Journal notes:
A crucial date could be August 15, notes the Journal. “That is 45 days before the end of the third quarter, the date when investors in many hedge funds can give notice that they are pulling out their money. If many give notice, it could spark a rash of selling by funds looking to raise cash to cover withdrawals.”
Trailing stop for part of positions hit....decent profit anyway, but BNP news very annoying !!!
long 3
scaled out 2 lots +9
bulls will try and pick it up here, eyes on 10 min chart
3rd -11 worth the risk
7400???
long 3
-3.5
long 3
scaled out 2 lots +5
Take care with your longs, news flow concerning subprime problems spreading globally is overshadowing every positive...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Take care with your longs, news flow concerning subprime problems spreading globally is overshadowing every positive...
Quote from JSSPMK:
long 3
scaled out 2 lots +9
bulls will try and pick it up here, eyes on 10 min chart
3rd -11 worth the risk
7400???
long 3
-3.5
long 3
scaled out 2 lots +5
Try some intraday longs over here at 7512.00...let´see whether it works...stop loss somewhere around 7470..target 7595...
Time for some short covering...FDAX now 7478....3 p.m. CET
Who the hell is the big player buying in 30 Lots at 7469,5 and buying 4000 at 79,5 ten minutes ago while all other futures going south deep.
Quote from hektor:
Who the hell is the big player buying in 30 Lots at 7469,5 and buying 4000 at 79,5 ten minutes ago while all other futures going south deep.
Quote from ASusilovic:
most probably a market participant short covering...you don´t really care if you are on a winning streak whether you have a copule of points slippage by doing this...
As far as I see it - it doesn't really matter, I never even look at volume, not to say there is no requirement for it for other people. Some people call this type of activity PPT (plunge protection teams) which could well be our Big Brother "feel good" factor sponsorships. Joking aside, why couldn't it have been short covering?
Quote from ASusilovic:
Well, you know my 4 waves theory in FDAX...if FDAX is failing 4 times in attempts to break support / resistance levels it might get uggly...one or the other way... right strategy now is an option play !!
FDAX is stuck into a range ( 7400 low end / 7675 high end ). Breakout will appear in short time - so play the breakout scenario !!...my fundamental point of view is that we have still some risk adjustment to make...there are always laggards in the makets having missed movements...after credit crunch mania and subprime mania we had some "catious" good news today...for example Blackstone´s new P/E fund and high-yield bonds rally as market sentiment rises...FANNIE MAE and FREDDIE MAC news etc...
Thanks for the intel AS.
Hourly chart basing for upside
10 minute chart points to 7330 re-test
Will try to catch next downdrift and reverse into long later on
short 3
scaled out 2 +8
+19 on 3rd
short 3
-3.5
hourly might be starting to kick in
Here we go, new week, new luck !
Long FDAX, dynamically hedging positons...
You can find here a maybe useful piece of paper concerning "dynamic hedging strategies for portfolios of derivatives", by Simon BENNINGA and Zvi WIENER from WHARTON SCHOOL ( University of Pennsylvania ):
http://finance.wharton.upenn.edu/~b.../mma/MiER71.pdf
Buying FDAX 7456...
Next buy 7416.50...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Next buy 7416.50...
short 3
all out +1.5
long 3
-2
Short 3
scaled 2 lots +11
+23 on 3rd
Long 3
scaled out 2 +7
signalled by 1 minute ES chart
-1 on 3rd
long 3
scaled out 2 +9
b/e on 3rd
short 1 lot off 10 minute chart
-4 poor entry
short 3
scaled out 2 +7.5
3rd +1.5
reversed LONG 3! Short squeeze?!
C'mon 5 min histogram!!!
Scaled out 2 lots +10.5
pick it up, c'mon, squeeze
3rd +3.5
10 minute chart is about to come into play, 5 minute chart's pattern failed to provide sustained follow through
Getting ready to short
Short 3 off 10 min chart, entry off 1 min chart
-2.5
great build-up, you could feel momentum build up, entered off 1 minute chart's histogram though, this is 5 minute chart.
Short 3
breakouts are not the right approach, buy low sell high is so much better, another poor entry, though failure breaks look promissing enough
Intra Pivot is likely target
It´s 08:05 CET, 14th August 2007 and I still have not my 7416.50 entry... The BOYZ want to give me a hard time !
Hey JSSPMK, can´t you push down FDAX to 7416.50....need my second long entry level ?!?!
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3
breakouts are not the right approach, buy low sell high is so much better, another poor entry, though failure breaks look promissing enough
Intra Pivot is likely target
Quote from ASusilovic:
Hey JSSPMK, can´t you push down FDAX to 7416.50....need my second long entry level ?!?!
Quote from JSSPMK:
10 minute chart is about to come into play, 5 minute chart's pattern failed to provide sustained follow through
Getting ready to short
Short 3 off 10 min chart, entry off 1 min chart
-2.5
Short 3
breakouts are not the right approach, buy low sell high is so much better, another poor entry, though failure breaks look promissing enough
Intra Pivot is likely target
flat here, no signals, small range so far, could go either way ImO, still short bias out there (media) hehe.
I tell you what, how about last Friday's FTSE drop, ouch! More like DAX range that was.
AS, you got your entry, so.........here's my Paypal account number
Quote from ASusilovic:
Hey JSSPMK, can´t you push down FDAX to 7416.50....need my second long entry level ?!?!
Quote from ASusilovic:
I got it, i got , i got it !! HA, HA, HA...Thank you JSSPMK - your 3 lot order did it !!!
Short 3 off pivot
scaled out 2 +7.5
failure swing, failure swing, failure swing, C'mon
premature divergence
this could be it, bulls might go for 3rd thrust
the only saviour is breakout from pivot, otherwise bears would take charge on weakening histogram
3rd lower peak, c'mon!
3rd lot -4
3rd peak still lower, shopping for possible re-entry
nope, bulls won this one
WHEN P/A GETS LIKE IT IS NOW, 1 MIN FORMATIONS ARE TO BE MOSTLY DISCARDED, I WOULD NOW SHOP ON LONGER TIME FRAME LIKE 2-10 MINUTE CHARTS AND 1 MINUTE'S HISTOGRAM WOULD STILL BE "OPTICS ON MY RIFLE"
AND OF COURSE - BUY LOW, SELL HIGH IS SOOOOOO IMPORTANT AND KEEP A TIGHT LEASH ON STOPS, I CAN'T STRESS IT ANY MORE THAN THAT. T/A WOULD PERHAPS "NOT WORK" WHEN WE TRY AND TRADE WITHIN RANGE, WE NEED TO PICK TOPS AND BOTTOMS WITH THE HELP OF INDICATORS.
OF COURSE ABOVE IS ImO STRICTLY.
Quote from JSSPMK:
very cool AS, nice analyses!!!
It was Placebo effect, you made them think I was going short and they fell for it!
If NO bad news, we might climb to 7515...today...hopefully not too optimistic...
Quote from ASusilovic:
If NO bad news, we might climb to 7515...today...hopefully not too optimistic...
Long 3 off pivot, divergence reached range on 1 min chart
scaled out 2 lots +7
+5.5 on 3rd, possible H&S on 1 min chart
Will short 1 lot below pivot break
not shorting here, histogram doesn't look positive to be short, missed opportunities are not money lost anyhow.
Quote from PointOne:
HAHA! I saw that bar form and I thought AS has got his fill (7 lots at 17?). Good job. Why did you set the trap at that level - is it some type of fib number retrace?
Quote from ASusilovic:
Buying FDAX 7456...
Quote from ExitsareVital:
Hmmm, I have observed you for quite a while mate, and you are having excellent results. However, this trade is not one of your best. Maybe in the end it'll turn out great, hope so....if I'm wrong on this, I apologise for any error, I just want to see you address the issues shown in the image-missed profit, missed short, holding a loser too long....finally, the next day, great entry
Quote from ExitsareVital:
Hmmm, I have observed you for quite a while mate, and you are having excellent results. However, this trade is not one of your best. Maybe in the end it'll turn out great, hope so....if I'm wrong on this, I apologise for any error, I just want to see you address the issues shown in the image-missed profit, missed short, holding a loser too long....finally, the next day, great entry
ExitsareVital => you´re working for MF Global ??
Quote from JSSPMK:
Slightly unfair comment ImO considering AS is a swing/position trader. Last entry was bang on the money, previous one was still very good considering risk/reward.
Quote from ExitsareVital:
Heh, my ego is not so fragile, but obviously his is (name calling already?).
To answer your post: I tried to be polite in the way I phrased it, and made several positive comments. However, he held a weak hand all day and did nothing to improve it. So, he wasted the whole of Monday through a bad entry and no exit. Nothing wrong with pointing that out, it's the truth, and in trading, reality is costly.....still waiting for him to answer my points......
Here we go, new week, new luck !
Long FDAX, dynamically hedging positons...
You can find here a maybe useful piece of paper concerning "dynamic hedging strategies for portfolios of derivatives", by Simon BENNINGA and Zvi WIENER from WHARTON SCHOOL ( University of Pennsylvania ):
http://finance.wharton.upenn.edu/~b.../mma/MiER71.pdf
OOpppsss....did we hit some stops at 7504...???
7515 traded...well, did not expected it that fast, but O.K. not bad ´til now...
Managed to get a good entry on EUR yesterday, after taking a 20 pip loss on 1st entry 2nd is now up 92 pips, targeting 1.3, I see EUR retracing there as that is the average range at the outset of the weekly divergence's price range.
I think we might see some kind of washout today...anyway, I am long at the open 7398.00...and buying on dips...next dip buying target : 7355.50 !!!
FDAX 7498...hmmm....didn´t get my 7355.50...doesn´t matter...comfortably on the positive side...
Somehow I have a strange feeling, because the upward move was too strong...and CBOE PCR showing bad omen...closing the morning long 7398...
short 3
-4
short 3
scaled out 2 +10
3rd -0.5
Long 3
scaled out 2 lots +6.5
3rd +1
OK long 3 here off pivot, 240 is performing a reversal formation (not complete), so have to be a buyer near lows/trend lows
scaled out 2 lots + 7.5
C'mon bulls, C'mon AS!!!!
possible reversal in the making
Yeah!
3rd lot +50.5
Long 3 off ES trendline
Quote from JSSPMK:
Yeah!
3rd lot +50.5
Long 3 off ES trendline
all out b/e
ES looking extra cool for a long short squeeze
long 3
If FDAX drops to 7416.50 => new entry...
7416.50 gottya !!
Buying also ES at 1419.75...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Buying also ES at 1419.75...
7355,50 gottya...
ouch u got your second entry too at 7355
Quote from JSSPMK:
good entry there AS!
My idea is that we are testing now Dow Jones highs of February 2007....12795....we should find some support over here...IMAO
Quote from ASusilovic:
Not as good as I thought ...
Ha, ha, ha...I supposen it will be also PANIC DAY for FDAX...that´s what I have been waiting for...buying opportunity...dynamic hedge...and everything is fine...
just wondering why not shorting this market?
Bought DAX at the open 7306.50...
Quote from younouss:
just wondering why not shorting this market?
Closed DAX 7346.50...Looking for cheaper entry again...
7280 seems to be a next buy
tried a long 7280
Good one younouss ! I ´ll wait for a second leg at 7280. I think we may retest again...
hum ok let me get out at 7320 first
stopped out @ 98 bought again 79
long at 7281.00...
keep an eye on €yen and $yen...
stop at entry +2
stopped
long again 7280
closed my long 7320
Quote from younouss:
closed my long 7320
thanks!
i'll buy if we break today's high with a target 7450
Quote from ASusilovic:
Well done ! Still long 7281....looking for traget above today�s high...
Short here
-3.5
short again
-4
short again
scaled out +12
Closed my position 7377.00....
great trade!
Looking for new entry somewhere below 7340...
u gave a good lesson of exiting a trade. Need to work on it... Exitarevital
Long 7338.00
7330 maybe (last week low)
Hey, you are on the opposite side of my 3 lots!
well 1 now actually
Has it touched 50% fib?
long 7330,50
long 3, covered 3rd short +19.5
scaled out 2 lots +10
added @ 7300
added 7298 and 7281...
hum stopped...
enough for today. GL guys
3RD lot went to b/e
Here is daily chart, any thoughts?
short 3
scaled out 2 +15
could get 3rd lower peak to complete bear flag
Well, I am going on with my dynamic hedge...we are absolutely oversold...7100 ? Might be, but it doesn´t scare me at all...Economies around the world are sound...what´s happening here is just risk adjustment of some market players...that´s all !!!
Quote from ASusilovic:
what´s happening here is just risk adjustment of some market players...that´s all !!!
Quote from JSSPMK:
short 3
scaled out 2 +15
could get 3rd lower peak to complete bear flag
What for a great day !!! Making tons of money ! This is going to be one of my best month ever !!!
short 3
scaled out 2 lots +22.5
is that a failure swing there? ES failing to hold 1400 also
Quote from JSSPMK:
short 3
scaled out 2 lots +22.5
is that a failure swing there? ES failing to hold 1400 also
FDAX 7363.00 closing my intraday longs...Have a nice evening !!
Quote from ASusilovic:
FDAX 7363.00 closing my intraday longs...Have a nice evening !!
Quote from JSSPMK:
nice trading AS, had a very good day also
come on, we are DAX traders - aufedersein
Quote from JSSPMK:
come on, we are DAX traders - aufedersein
Guten Tag!
big drop in Tokyo today, it will open around 7300.
will buy around 7280
I have to admit a nuance :
Yesterday I had my downward target in FDAX at 7256.00...BUT, I did not want to consider it as a target, because it seemed too far away from market action...especially in observance of Volatility Index...but taking a look at Vola in 1998, it reminds someone that markets can behave even worse. Take a look ( I took some data from CBOE - they have really better figures then EUREX )=>
Therefore, I have to be prepared that it might get even more challenging to accept the right levels of swings....
Source : http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/images/vix_sp500.gif
Long 7289.00...
am long 7280 and 7253
Nice range in the DAX, was that just like 100 points in 25 minutes?
Quote from makloda:
Nice range in the DAX, was that just like 100 points in 25 minutes?
out 7405
thanks Bernanke!
Fed Cuts Discount Rate to 5.75%, Cites `Downside' Risks
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
u mean
€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€€
Quote from younouss:
out 7405
thanks Bernanke!
__________________
If you can't beat them join them, he said as he was writing his application to Rotterinvest!
Quote from FGBS:
At least you got half of the move
Quote from younouss:
Yep I never buy the lowest lows and never sell the highest high... That's why I'm trading for almost 6/7 years now and still alive!
__________________
If you can't beat them join them, he said as he was writing his application to Rotterinvest!
of course not but am not looking for it
getting ready to short
Younouss, the main reason you are still trading is because you are good at what you do, not exactly down to method used but how YOU use it ImO
and here is 10 minute chart, which is basing for upside, short might be short lived.
Quote from JSSPMK:
Younouss, the main reason you are still trading is because you are good at what you do, not exactly down to method used but how YOU use it
short 3
yes You, money management is key in any method, I love buying lows and selling tops, if I was betting on my belief/bias and ignoring stops then any success would be short lived, you and I know that, so does AS
-4.5
short 3
scaled out +9.5
3rd -0.5
short 3
3rd failure c'mon
scaled out 2 +8
3rd +8.5
Quote from JSSPMK:
and here is 10 minute chart, which is basing for upside, short might be short lived.
Well, what a week ! This has been one of my best weeks ever ! Double-digit profit on AUM ! Must have something to do with the relaxed mood coming from holiday !
Enjoy your weekends and GL + GT !!
hi All
am short 7455 looking for a small target @ 7400 stop is entry plus 2.
covered here 7446. Waiting for US opening.
Aware of VOLA meltdown last couple of hours ? ...DAX Range "only" 30 Points...all of a sudden an idea :
Straddles are a good strategy to pursue if an investor believes that a financial instrument's price will move significantly, but is unsure as to which direction. The price must move significantly if the investor is to make a profit....he, he...
short 3
-2
reversed. long 3
scaled out 2 +10.5
Dax should be around 7390 but there is someone keeping buying by 100 lots...
Quote from JSSPMK:
short 3
-2
reversed. long 3
scaled out 2 +10.5
3rd lot +38.5
short 3
-2
short 3
-4
short 3
scaled out 2 +11
3rd +15
Looks like the ominous 2pm EST Dax dip buyer... Really wonder wtf is going on there.
Quote from younouss:
Dax should be around 7390 but there is someone keeping buying by 100 lots...
I am staying with my straddle and watching the situation...no big position play...small long at 7408.50...maybe buying some more if we break through 7400.00...
Quote from ASusilovic:
I am staying with my straddle and watching the situation...no big position play...small long at 7408.50...maybe buying some more if we break through 7400.00...
nice trade.
Market is spoiled by all kind of rumor: like another cut rate today!
Hmmm...yep, some rumors spreading but very unrealistic as FED needs supporting incoming macroeconomic data to do so...but may be at next scheduled official meeting....
Look FADX maybe testing lows of today as bad news from U.S. spilling over...Toll Brothers downgraded...also not helping stupid remarks by this WEST LB CEO genius Alexander Stuhlmann telling eagerly swamping journalists "on the sidelines of a bank event" that "We sense reluctance on the part of foreign partners to extend credit to German banks."
Well done, Mr.Stuhlmann, which university did you attend ?
long 3
scaled out 2 +11.5
3rd b/e
long 3
FDAX testing lows...starting new longs...
Quote from ASusilovic:
FDAX testing lows...starting new longs...
G'lucken!
Closing part of my latest longs...working with trailing stops for the rest of position...
Dynamic hedge still in process...until now almost risk / reward very good...let´s see whether ES will test 1463...
Some pretty funnny VOLA today...maybe opportunity to get third time today 7408,50 entry...ha, ha, ha...
hm, mixed signals, but short more possible here ImO, 10 min chart looks bearish ImO, some failures also
not a fan of break out type trades
Just had a look at S&P500, also points to a short on short term charts, daily says long though
long 3, reverse at the ready though
-3.5 reversed
ES pivot holding up so far
-5 long 3
C'mon bulls, break that trend line
all out +5.5 and short
scaled out 2 +5
3rd b/e
long 3
scaled out 2 +8
3rd +1
actually 4hour chart's histogram is turning bearish, I guess I am in agreement with AS after all, stradle is probably the right way to trade this market right now.
We are breaking through DAILY SMA at 7495.00...now trading 7516.50...want to see whether 7495 will hold or not...I am a little bit cautious because I have belly feeling that we might see some more of - how I named it "DROP-POLICY" ( in reference to the fact that we are getting the truth of subrime mess in sliced pieces ) - in relation to subprime "NEWS"...
but so far - so good !!
short 3
scaled out 2 +14.5
3rd -2
short 3
-3.5
short 3
-3.5
I have made my first trade in DAX futures.
A scalp on the short side. IB platform.
Normally I scalp Crude or Yen early in the morning (NY time) and CL and ER2 during the day.
Looking over a weeks worth of 16 sec charts it seems like DAX streaks like Crude but not as choppy as ER2. Very liquid.
I am really looking forward to trading this.
Regards,
GC
short 3
looks promising, c'mon break trendline
3rd failure swing here? Hope so. If it is, then 240 ought to turn into a divergence, good for shorts, watch out below.
scaled out 2 +9.5
WE might see some short sqeeze above 1464,50 in ES...that´s why I expect FDAX to do the same and then consolidating for the next hours...GL+GT= G(L+T)...
short 3
still holding, 2 min chart says - SELL and hold
scaled out 2 +14
Quote from gurucandidate:
I have made my first trade in DAX futures.
A scalp on the short side. IB platform.
Quote from gurucandidate:
Looking over a weeks worth of 16 sec charts it seems like DAX streaks like Crude but not as choppy as ER2.
GC
__________________
If you can't beat them join them, he said as he was writing his application to Rotterinvest!
Shorting FDAX 7536.00...expect sell-off...
Quote from JSSPMK:
short 3
still holding, 2 min chart says - SELL and hold
scaled out 2 +14
When the intensity of the market is increasing I prefer to go into detail down to the smallest timescale where the usual indicators still work. So, in CL and ER2 I have been using 16 second bar charts although in the last few days I have been using 6 sec charts for ER2.
I am using time based charts for scalping rather then constant tick or constant volume charts because on the time based chart I can sense momentum.
In scalping momentum is more important for me then price levels.
I am working with TS and IB.
TS does not offer second increment charts and IB has a 15 sec bar chart but only for 5 minutes, so I added Sierra Chart as a front for IB (very reliable), fed by IB data.
BTW I have noticed that the IB volume data on this scale reveal large trades the TS does not even pick up.
The one minute charts with Volume and OBV are also good to see the volume ebb and flow.
GC
Quote from FGBS:
Could you ellaborate what you mean by 16 sec charts?
expecting a plunge here
classic divergence on 1 min chart
3 lower tops, possible 4th + headfake.
added 2 lots short
7505 target on latter 2 lots
c'mon a failure and boom boom
covered 2 latter lots +11.50
cool, divergence retracement range reached, now comes crunch time - lower or higher, 3rd lot from earlier trade still open.
short 2
-4 on latter 2
-0.5 on previous 3rd
We got some bad news after hours :
Lehman shuts subprime unit. Jobs lost: 1,200; cumulative effect of charges, write-downs: $50 mln.
Mortgage lenders today announced plans to fire 3,700 people as the slump that began in subprime mortgage bonds reaches beyond mortgages to companies seeking money in the corporate debt markets.
No good news. I think FED will to rethink stance on interest rates very soon...
I don't really understand ins and outs of fundamental analyses. Common sense wise I have a POV which goes something like this -
1. Shit load of people bought properties be it buy to let or personal use purely due to low borrowing rates at the time;
2. Interest rates have been steadily on the up inevitably leading to defaults resulting in repos;
3. Even though economies are strong according to AS (I really haven't got a well researched take on that one) housing market is dependant on interest rates and employment;
4. We all know that first thing large corps revert to when stock markets enter a possible bear phase which inevitably leads to share price decline is exactly what AS just posted, they lay of employees in thousands;
5. That results in those people being unable to meet their financial commitments, which leads to repos and a housing market decline which leads to etc etc etc.
Closing some of my long-term FDAX. I don´t see these news as positive as markets suggest.
Laying off people has always been the beginning of economic downturn.
I am looking eagerly for the next payroll numbers !
I see imlications on broader economy ! As long as liquidity is in the market, I swim in tandem with this upward move, but selling into strenght, i.e. closing FDAX positions !
GL+GT
short 3
scaled out 2 + 9
As expected today market is falling from highs...may fall even further as - once again : job layoffs no good news !
Quote from JSSPMK:
short 3
scaled out 2 + 9
long 3
-3.5
long 3
scaled out 2 +8.5
7550 would be nice
3rd +30.5
short 3
scaled out 2 +10
wow, failure swing below pivot, watch out below
3rd +20 and long 3
-4
long 3
-1
long 3
-1
long 3
scaled out 2 +9.5
3rd +15.5
morgen sollte bombig, auf wiedersehen
Guten morgen,
Sold at 7515.50 bought at 7512.00
4:33 AM here in NY
GC
I think scalping is a nice way to earn some bucks today...
I am using the 16 sec. charts and the 1 and 2 min. for perspective.
GC
short 3
scaled out 2 +8
Long 7499,5 target 7537
out 7520,5
long 3
scaled out 2 +8.5
3rd still long
added 2 long here
sold 2 +8
1 lot still long
added 2 long
-0.5
1 still long
3rd sold +14.5
short 3
-3.5
short 3
7515 would be good to get
-2
short 3
scaled out 2 lots +9
3rd -1.5
short 3
+1.5 reversing long 3
-2.5
long 3 same level
scaled out 2 +10.5
3rd lot +38.5
Some U.S. technical indicators suggesting that rally will go on and surprise bearish market participants, who are trying to fade it...a "correction" of a "downward trend" - they will find out soon - may occur in much wilder upswings then they anticipated...as I stated already last week I am liquidating my FDAX long-term positions ( built up during my dynamic hedge "program" )...straddle beginning to show also "results"...I have no target for this rally, because I am generally skeptic about the macroeconomic environment ( subprime crisis and related implications - by the way : a lot of people not aware that we are experiencing a similar forcelosure crisis because of rising ARM´s in other countries around the globe like on the Spanish market ! )...
So, selling into strength as long as there is liquidity is the name of the game !
GL+GT
Quote from ASusilovic:
Some U.S. technical indicators suggesting that rally will go on and surprise bearish market participants, who are trying to fade it...a "correction" of a "downward trend" - they will find out soon - may occur in much wilder upswings then they anticipated...as I stated already last week I am liquidating my FDAX long-term positions ( built up during my dynamic hedge "program" )...straddle beginning to show also "results"...I have no target for this rally, because I am generally skeptic about the macroeconomic environment ( subprime crisis and related implications - by the way : a lot of people not aware that we are experiencing a similar forcelosure crisis because of rising ARM´s in other countries around the globe like on the Spanish market ! )...
So, selling into strength as long as there is liquidity is the name of the game !
GL+GT
Quote from JSSPMK:
FOMC minutes: That meeting occurred BEFORE the Fed's Discount Rate cut. That cut, though primarily symbolic, represents a new perspective for the Fed and could possibly relegate the minutes to a true case of "yesterday's news." Just a thought.
JSS,
when you say "head fake" are you talking about
A) a drop that recovers strongly
-or-
B) a move higher that reverses?
Quote from vertigo3:
FOMC minutes: That meeting occurred BEFORE the Fed's Discount Rate cut. That cut, though primarily symbolic, represents a new perspective for the Fed and could possibly relegate the minutes to a true case of "yesterday's news." Just a thought.
Quote from vertigo3:
JSS,
when you say "head fake" are you talking about
A) a drop that recovers strongly
-or-
B) a move higher that reverses?
3rd +16.5 and Long 3 off 2 min chart
scaled out 2 +8.5
Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd +16.5 and Long 3 off 2 min chart
scaled out 2 +8.5
long 3, ES's chart lining up
scaled out 2 +9.5
Long FDAX 7389,50, buying more below 7375,00...dynamic hedge still implemented...straddle still implemented...expect some strong Financials today after two day sell-off..."bargain hunting" will be slogan of the day...especially when all of sudden rate cut talk will reoccur...don´t give too much emphasis on FED minutes...FINANCIALS will be the hot spots today...
GL+GT
Quote from ASusilovic:
Long FDAX 7389,50, buying more below 7375,00...dynamic hedge still implemented...straddle still implemented...expect some strong Financials today after two day sell-off..."bargain hunting" will be slogan of the day...especially when all of sudden rate cut talk will reoccur...don´t give too much emphasis on FED minutes...FINANCIALS will be the hot spots today...
GL+GT
First target reached, closed 7375,00 longs...working with trailing stops for the remaining part...
Read Headline at www.marketwatch.com ( 03:50 p.m. CET ) =>
"Bargain hunters on scene"
maybe so...I think 7200 has to be re-tested first
Long 3
scaled out 2 +8.5
3rd +29.5
short 3
scaled out 2 +7
if 3rd failure swing, should head below R1
OK, Long 1 lot, keeping 3rd short though
-2.5 on 1 Long
somebody fingered ES below pivot, OK, staying short in that case
3rd lot +1.5, should have placed 1 Long near lows, it was a clear error not to.
short 3
c'mon, give us A failure swing
that' it, c'mon, might develop 3rd lower top + div on 2 min chart
-2
short 3 off the top
-1
short 3 7500
-4.5
short 3 7505
scaled out 2 +6.5
3rd -2.5
short 3 7509
Still some FDAX long from yesterdays´ "intraday" trades...working with trailing stops...as expected yesterday some bargain hunting in FINANCIALS going on after sector downbeaten in recent weeks...FINANCIALS have been even a major story in this morning´s TV news...best sign bottom has been reached or might be very near...dynamic hedge still in place....straddle still in place...Tomorrow last trading day for this month...I am up double digit in percentage terms...
Quote from JSSPMK:
short 3 7500
-4.5
short 3 7505
scaled out 2 +6.5
3rd -2.5
short 3 7509
Long 1 sold -5
3rd 7509 still short
another 1 short 7495.5
-35 on 2, flat now.
short 3
scaled out 2 +9
3rd b/e
Short 3
scaled out 2 +9.5
Seems logical to cover last lot now, but I am still going with 240 and treating this as a headfake upside, so keeping stop at entry to b/e on last lot. GL all.
3rd short remains open
"President George W. Bush today will announce steps the administration says will help people with subprime mortgages keep their homes.
Bush will let the Federal Housing Administration, which insures mortgages for low-and middle-income borrowers, guarantee loans for delinquent borrowers, allowing them to avoid foreclosure and refinance at more favorable rates, according to an administration official. "
What shall I say ? Dynamic hedge fully paid off ! Straddle paid off ! UNfortunately only not enough FDAX long as I sold them into strength the last days...
WTG AS!
Short 2 off 1 min chart
Yesterday's 3rd lot still open and under water
sell da news, c'mon
Quite a loss over last 2 trading sessions. Here is why I was a seller then (DOW chart).
Anyway, back to short term trading now and Short 3 off 5 min chart showing a potential failure swing, 1 min based entry.
Scaled out 2 +10
Entry analyses
Quote from JSSPMK:
Quite a loss over last 2 trading sessions. Here is why I was a seller then (DOW chart).
Anyway, back to short term trading now and Short 3 off 5 min chart showing a potential failure swing, 1 min based entry.
Scaled out 2 +10
Quote from ASusilovic:
JSSPMK, if prices are at crossroads, why do you "MUST BE" invested ? Just stay at sidelines until picture clears up...For now, I am also reluctant to set up intraday positons...just wait, see and drink some tea ( as substitute for some premium Vodka )...
hi there
the Fdax was under the 28 day MA for 5 days and it broke it on the 30/08 and confirmed with a huge gap on last friday. I think it became bullish again with a 1st target around 7730 and 7770 and 7825 in sight.
Today's session is not really interesting as US are closed.
Anyway be careful with your short.
Y
ok this is my 2 cents analysis
Quote from younouss:
hi there
the Fdax was under the 28 day MA for 5 days and it broke it on the 30/08 and confirmed with a huge gap on last friday. I think it became bullish again with a 1st target around 7730 and 7770 and 7825 in sight.
Today's session is not really interesting as US are closed.
Anyway be careful with your short.
Y
ok this is my 2 cents analysis
Price re-tested intraday support, will try to hold all 3 to cover Friday's losses.
-4
Short 3
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from younouss:
hi there
the Fdax was under the 28 day MA for 5 days and it broke it on the 30/08 and confirmed with a huge gap on last friday. I think it became bullish again with a 1st target around 7730 and 7770 and 7825 in sight.
Today's session is not really interesting as US are closed.
Anyway be careful with your short.
Y
ok this is my 2 cents analysis
Quote from ASusilovic:
We are also running into DAILY upper Bollinger Band zone and as US is closed expect some sideways action...So, good time to spend some money ! I am leaving for today supporting global economy and spending some hard-earned bucks => shopping ! GL+GT
long here. stop under 7625
hi all
Still holding my long from yesterday. If 7640 is broken maybe I'll reconsider my position and wait for a better entry point.
GT
Y
stopped out 7634
Expecting very narrow range in the next couple of hours ( maybe 7611-7632 ). This week we are going to have some hard facts ( payrolls report in U.S. on Friday ) - so watch out for some range-bound markets. Investment banks are expected to report sharp drops in quarterly profit when they report results in the week starting September 17.Look for some sell the rumor buy the facts opportunities...
Ooopppsss...surprise !! Pretty nice move. Approaching 60 MIN SMA at 7666.00. If breakthrough look for retest 7708,50
long again 7669
target 7730
All I am going to say is C'MON! Sorry Y, short here.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
reversing. Long 3
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from younouss:
long again 7669
target 7730
-5.5 Short 3
-6
Now I am pissed off
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
short 7704,5
as my timing sucks today, I put a stop @ 7710
stopped again
my target is reached and my trading was totally confused... One more good lesson!
Short 3 & C'MON!!! off 1 min chart, when these programs start buying in bulk my trading signals get screwed up.
scaled out 2 +8
adding 2 short
Would you break already!
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Another position went to b/e pretty much, just can't seem to be able to get on the right side of market recently.
Shorted 1 lot just before close into tomorrow off hourly chart's closing bar.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
hi All
Maybe a nice setup for a short here.. target would be 7650
4 hour chart is showing a sign of a possible trend reversal, agree with your bearish call.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
target update for 1st leg: 7665 and 7615
This is only intraday targets. If there's a reversal then...
Yes, I didn't meant to say total reversal, downside would have been a better term, though anything is possible.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
I have been scalping DAX for almost two weeks and I like it. I am used to fading the CL and ER2 for a few ticks which does not quite work in DAX because the potential losses are bigger, so I try to trade more in the direction of the flow and I am holding onto gains a bit longer.
The 16 second bar charts work perfectly -with the one min and 60 min for perspective- all formations are clear and the volume and OBV patterns are usually clear.
I am located in NY and start between 2AM and 4AM local time. I don't mind missing the half hour after the opening because it is often looking for direction .
Today I got up at 4, missing some nice moves. Near the highs twice I shorted the top, early, took it back for .50+ and 1.5+, did not dare to stay, the third time I got it right and made 7 pts. Made a couple of wash like trades and I am going to leave it alone.
One of the wash sales started by hitting the wrong button and bought to early but I was lucky to get out even. This is a warning that I am a bit off and I stop trading DAX for the day.
I missed two other nice tops by .5 and 1 but it's OK, at least I was facing in the right direction.
Basically this is a good morning for me. I can always add to gains in CL or ER2 trading for 2 or 3 ticks. It is good to have a morning lead and trade defensively afterwards.
DAX is a scalper's dream and one should concentrate on this (although currencies are also active) early AM and nothing else. Fewer crosscurrents are an advantage . The beauty of this contract is that it is muy largo and liquid, even a few fluctuations can provide big enough swings for nice trades. Trading the other contracts like ES is like watching paint dry.
Also notice that DAX does not follow ES in lockstep sometimes it is weaker and sometimes it is stronger. So one should not look at an ES chart for hope only to see the flow and the volume patterns.
There is one divergence that can help sometimes when the DAX overswings against the trend and the ES does not. This sets up for a decent snapback trade.
At the moment I trade one lot which is new for me because in CL and ER2 I scale at appropriate times. I have actually reduced my account for the time being so that IB won't let me take 2 or more lots , but it looks like one can make an executive level of pay trading only a few lots.
Regards,
GC
Quote from JSSPMK:
Another position went to b/e pretty much, just can't seem to be able to get on the right side of market recently.
Shorted 1 lot just before close into tomorrow off hourly chart's closing bar.
__________________
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Quote from younouss:
target update for 1st leg: 7665 and 7615
This is only intraday targets. If there's a reversal then...
Quote from JSSPMK:
covered 1 lot and reversed 3 long off 3 min chart
__________________
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Happens also to me that I am on the wrong train...was long FDAX 7711.50...stopped out....
added 1 lot long
both sold b/e
long 3 bottom fishing
crap -12
existing home sales came in at 6 times worse
Short 3
scaled out 2 +11.5
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3rd +23 and long 3
scaled out 2 +11
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Quote from younouss:
First target has been reached. I keep the rest of the position with a stop @ 7708
Long FDAX 7628.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Long FDAX 7628.
Stopped out.
Quote from asap:
that hurts!
I think I found my defendant =>
Deutsche Bank Earnings May Be Worst Hit by Rout, JPMorgan Says
By Elena Logutenkova
Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's biggest lender, will probably be the European investment bank most affected by the fixed-income markets rout, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts.
Deutsche Bank earnings estimates for this year were cut 5 percent and lowered 10 percent for the following two years, Kian Abouhossein and Jacob Kruse, analysts at JPMorgan in London, wrote in a note to clients today. Credit Suisse Group's estimates were cut by 5 percent for 2007 and 3 percent for the next two years, while UBS AG's were lowered by 2 percent, 4 percent and 3 percent for 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively.
Deutsche Bank, which operates the biggest investment bank by revenue in Europe, gets about half of group profits from fixed-income sales and trading, JPMorgan analysts estimate. The banks will probably also take a hit from mark-to-market writedowns on leveraged loans in the third quarter, they said.
``Lower sustainable revenues in securitizations, leverage finance, hedge funds and proprietary trading are impacting our 2008 and 2009 estimates,'' the analysts said. They have an ``overweight'' rating on Credit Suisse and ``underweight'' ratings on UBS and Deutsche Bank.
Beware JPM, you will pay for this BS ! I think DB, is already working on a downgrade for your stock, GUYZ !
C'mon ASusilovic, there's nothing to do with JPM but factory orders in Germany were really low last month!
Quote from younouss:
C'mon ASusilovic, there's nothing to do with JPM but factory orders in Germany were really low last month!
Quote from asap:
you're right but DB is working on a massive downgrade on JPM stock either way.
this dax thread is really hilarious.
good job guys entertaining everybody.
Quote from younouss:
just curious why do u find it hilarious?
Quote from asap:
i hope you dont feel offended, i was just trying to say it entertains me because i trade the dax with a black box which is totally neutral to TA or news bias and thus, it is quite interesting seeing what the other side of the trade thinks of the dax, as prices evolve.
cheers
Quote from younouss:
No worries not offended at all, as I told you , I was curious. Is your blackbox doing well these last 2 months?
Quote from asap:
not really. july was really messy but august was relatively ok. the sudden increase in vola turns an otherwise successful algo into a lose canon. clearly , i'd get the most out of it when vola resumes the downtrend.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Interesting, so basically you are following a trend based "system". On the other note charts look quite scary ImO, if support doesn't materialise, then it's getting closer for a possible big drop. Indicators heading lower, though world indexes seem to advance bit by bit looking more like a bear flag, 4 hour chart's MACD is at centerline. Anyway, that's my 2c based on classic TA
Long 3
-5.5
Long 3
Scaled out 2 +12.5
with 4 hour candle's strong close (If), I would be worried if short, W forming on 10 min chart
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3rd +52.5
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Quote from asap:
not really.
i guess my algo does well in all sorts of environment other than the typical panic selloff situation because the sudden spike in volatility inverts the rules of the game (not because it was following a trend).
thanks for your analysis anyway.
Quote from asap:
... it is quite interesting seeing what the other side of the trade thinks of the dax...
cheers
Quote from ASusilovic:
Are you sure you aren´t "the other side" ? IMAO ! LOL !
Quote from asap:
yes, there are too many other sides...
no i am not a market maker, just a humble long term winner.
Guten Morgen,
2 hour chart's histogram pointing to a re-test of 7500 and maybe more so. Also head and shoulder type formation in price action.
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Not taking long signal on 1 minute chart, but will take short as soon as histogram starts showing weakness.
7625 is average price target based on divergence, will most likely short there.
missed it, hopefully that was just 1 leg
short 3
scaled out 2 +9
3rd -1
Short 3
scaled out 2 +8.5
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Thanks JSSPMK for this chart, it helped a lot today.
Waiting for a pullback now for a new entry...
Quote from younouss:
Thanks JSSPMK for this chart, it helped a lot today.
Waiting for a pullback now for a new entry...
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3rd +152.5
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nice trade!
TY! I deserve a nice stiff drink now down the local, you have a nice weekend guys ('n gals).
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possible bullish close, caused by short covering/double bottom re-test of lod/histogram rising
Long 3
Scald out 2 +11
Still holding 3rd long, near lod, short covering just might over power short sellers.
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3rd +12.5
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Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd +152.5
JSSPMK,
What is the indicator on the bottom of your charts?
Thank you.
Grant.
Quote from Grant:
JSSPMK,
What is the indicator on the bottom of your charts?
Thank you.
Grant.
__________________
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LONG FDAX 7425.00. TARGET 7472.00
Hi As
Wht happened to the dax this morning even the stoxx is more volatile?
Long 3
-3.5
Short 3
scaled out 2 lots +7
Could get 3rd lower peak on 1 min chart to close bearish on 5 minute bar
3rd b/e
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failure swing on lower histogram, next bus stop near 737ish mark ImO, holding 3rd for now.
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Quote from younouss:
Hi As
Wht happened to the dax this morning even the stoxx is more volatile?
alot of traps and stops fishing
long 3
-2.5
Long 3
scaled out 2 +9
__________________
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my ID target is 7512
5 min confronted by divergence on 3 minute chart, price managed to find support, entered upon break of trend line using 1 minute chart.
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BOYZ are selling into 30 SMA, now running at 7445.00...
Quote from ASusilovic:
BOYZ are selling into 30 SMA, now running at 7445.00...
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7400/15 is not a bad support in day chart...
Quote from younouss:
7400/15 is not a bad support in day chart...
Quote from JSSPMK:
Looking at daily chart pf both DAX & ES ImO price needs to find support, we are below 20 MA and still trading below it, that's not good for bulls, perhaps larger traders need lower prices before FED announces rate cut.
Still holding 3rd piker Long
Basing pattern on 1 min histogram
added 2 long
upupup
C'mon, more coal Jenkins lol 1.35
sold latter 2 -0.5
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1 minute chart, another way of looking at a chart
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3rd +22.5
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Long 3
-1
reversed
-0.5
Long 3
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ready to cover if ES doesn't reverse soon
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ES's histogram points to upside any time now, C'mon now bitch
-20
long 3
-2.5
Long 3 7402
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Quote from JSSPMK:
ES's histogram points to upside any time now, C'mon now bitch
-20
long 3
-2.5
Long 3 7402
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Quote from younouss:
my ID target is 7512
Quote from JSSPMK:
re-test hod is a realistic expectation now [/B]
Quote from younouss:
Hum did u give a call to Ben B. ?
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yep that's why am still long...
Oh good, we burn together otherwise.
AS, you long yet?
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OK, I'm worried now
scaled out 1 +29.5
sold other 2 +26
and short 3
-4.5
short 3
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scaled out 2 +11
Y, just an opinion, but price seemed to retrace back to 38.2, while doing so it completed a divergence on 2 minute chart, so it is realistic ImE to expect further decline, all the best.
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divergence/bear flag
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Y, just an opinion, but price seemed to retrace back to 38.2, while doing so it completed a divergence on 2 minute chart, so it is realistic ImE to expect further decline, all the best.
covered 3rd -1
what a recovery, 1 min histogram has given a great signal, I was on the blower and didn't trade it, pissed off, it will probably rally to hod now.
NIce hold Y.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
covered 3rd -1
what a recovery, 1 min histogram has given a great signal, I was on the blower and didn't trade it, pissed off, it will probably rally to hod now.
NIce hold Y.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
covered 3rd -1
what a recovery, 1 min histogram has given a great signal, I was on the blower and didn't trade it, pissed off, it will probably rally to hod now.
NIce hold Y.
Short 3
-3
short 3
is that h and s on es 1 min?
scaled out 2 +6
3rd -2
short 3
-3.5
Screw it. missed a heck of a turn, still net positive for today, but way too much trading.
GL on your long Y!
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last short 3
scaled out 2 +9.5
3rd +19 thank you very much hehe
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Very strange session today ! In the morning very subdued session with sellers in control of the pricing...seems so the London desks did know some orders in U.S. waiting to be dumped into the market, but then FDAX relatively stable in relation to ES !
Well, after a while it emerged that US BROKERS / Investment Banks have been amongst the well bid stocks today ! And technology stocks - in particular AAPL !
GS up 6 until now ! BSC up 2 !
I have been long all day in FDAX - expected some kind of bounce back, it worked out just in the last two hours !
But still, strange session...
Guten Morgen
Buying 7427 and kept yesterday's long position. target remains 7512.
I think the shorts have not learned their lesson from yesterdays bounce in U.S. markets...think they need lesson No.2 ...
Quote from ASusilovic:
I think the shorts have not learned their lesson from yesterdays bounce in U.S. markets...think they need lesson No.2 ...
Quote from younouss:
yea... I hope they won't give us a lesson...
I agree...
I'm tired to play the same as yesterday... I won't wait until the last 2 hours of the US session to get out of this trade!
Quote from younouss:
I'm tired to play the same as yesterday... I won't wait until the last 2 hours of the US session to get out of this trade!
Quote from younouss:
Guten Morgen
Buying 7427 and kept yesterday's long position. target remains 7512.
Quote from Marcell:
Guten Morgen, can you explain why you see the 7512 target? Maybe back it with a chart; that would be helpful. Thanks
target update:
if 7512 is broken, the next target is 7556.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Sometimes, the best way is to play golf or have some Premium Vodka / green tea...FDAX at 7482...
We had an up day with very low volume. In fact I would prefer to be short if I had to choose. Look at how I see the DAX. Maximum upward potential is 7600 at the EMA(50). Should it close above, regard the trade as a failure.
Quote from Marcell:
We had an up day with very low volume. In fact I would prefer to be short if I had to choose. Look at how I see the DAX. Maximum upward potential is 7600 at the EMA(50). Should it close above, regard the trade as a failure.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Very easy to give them a lesson...hedge your position and long FDAX...and while prices might see some lower levels hedge again and average your longs...
cost of hedge in relation to your longs must have sense, that´s why I am deploying "dynamic" hedging...
Very successfull strategy by the way...for years...
Quote from younouss:
Guten Morgen
Buying 7427 and kept yesterday's long position. target remains 7512.
Quote from younouss:
back to the same range again.
Quote from younouss:
sold the position bought this morning and 2/3 of yesterday long, thanks to the spike! I have a stoploss under 7450 for the rest.
I need this spicy vodka...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Remember ? Golf, Vodka, tea ?...Worked fine today !
Quote from younouss:
ok but I can't combine all these... let's play golf first... Now it's time for a vodka.. Cheers from Dubai!
Quote from younouss:
sold the position bought this morning and 2/3 of yesterday long, thanks to the spike! I have a stoploss under 7450 for the rest.
Quote from younouss:
I'm closing my long position here.
short 3
scaled out 2 + 6.5 at divergence average range
3rd +5
Long 3
scaled out 2 +8
3rd -1
long 3 bottom fishing
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-0.5
reversed
scaled out 2 +8, that was quick off lod
3rd +1
reversed Long 3
- 4
Long 3, same level, this formation ought to test upper trendline
scaled out 2 +6.5
AS, vodka is on you, keep it chilled
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3rd - 3.5 for now, let's see if this is turns out to be a head fake, will be buying same level or near
Long 3
MACD has to pull to centreline now
C'MON BULLS!
2 were scaled out +7.5
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holding 3rd for now
-2, not convinced now
Long 3
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Quote from JSSPMK:
AS, vodka is on you, keep it chilled
Quote from JSSPMK:
holding 3rd for now
-2, not convinced now
Long 3
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Seems, some shorts still not learned their lesson yesterday, maybe we need to repeat again !
Go Bulls!
previous 3rd closed -2.5
Long 3
-3.5
Long 3
scaled out 2 +8
feels like this is the time, c'mon bulls
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AS, stick tumblers in the freezer
Take pivot!
Take Off, YEAH!
And now we'll probably have volume increase LOL
But we are already long
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Same procedure as yesterday...what´s up with the BEARZ ? Seems they have too much money in their pockets...
target for today: 7520
Quote from younouss:
target for today: 7520
target is valid only if the dax remains above 7450
Quote from younouss:
3rd +32.5, will look to re-enter somewhere somehow
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Long 3
wow, scaled out 2 +9
3rd +3.5
hourly chart still looks nice
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Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd +32.5, will look to re-enter somewhere somehow
Which one is your favourite? I haven't tried them all (LOL), but I find Absolute pretty smooth when chilled
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Had a look a 2 and 1 hour charts, must admit a tad short biased this morning
Long 3
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60 points from the abyss.
GC
Quote from JSSPMK:
Had a look a 2 and 1 hour charts, must admit a tad short biased this morning
Long 3
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Quote from gurucandidate:
60 points from the abyss.
GC
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I have not yet figured out how to post charts in TradeStation but I am working on it.
It's the uptrend line from Aug 17 on the hourly, except the ES/SPY charts look better. So I suspect DAX will be relatively stronger then the others.
A little dollar strength would help with that.
GC
Difficult to understand what you refer to exactly, but you can open chart, then press PrintScreen button, then open Windows paint program and right click Paste into new window, then save file as JPG, GIF or PNG and then you can upload file.
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3rd -2
Long 3
scaled out 2 +5
3rd-1.5
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Long 3
-3
Long 3
scaled out 2 +5.5
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3rd -1
Long 3
reversed
-2.5
long 3
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All out +4
Short 3
scaled out 2 +4.5
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its been pretty quiet for the past 2 mornings session innit! snooze snooze!
definetly
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Seems somebody has a VOLA squeeze going on...might not be GOLDMAN SACHS, or ?....Rumors circulating they made tons of money...
HI ALL
I'm long again today 7445. I have several targets, let's see if the volatility is back
DAX looks and feels like somebody sold boatloads of vola until next Friday and needs to keep it at 7450. What a snoozefest.
gurucandidate,
to post a chart in ET from TS:
Active window (highlighted banner of chart you want to post)
Go to file (upper left of TradeStation banner)
Choose Save as Picture (a little more than half way down the list of options)
in subsequent pop-up window choose active window
-Save as, choose a directory where you will park the chart, then,
at bottom of window, choose file type .bmp or .jpg, I like .jpg)
Then name file (extension will be added automatically)
hit save
Back in ET, choose "post reply"
make your comment in the text box, then under the textbox click on browse.
navigate to the directory where you saved your chart
highlight the file
click open, it will move into ET's attached file protocol for publication post
Seems I have to take a nip of my PREMIUM VODKA already in the afternoon ! Sh.t ! Will need to leave my car overe here and take a cab back home ....
Quote from younouss:
HI ALL
I'm long again today 7445. I have several targets, let's see if the volatility is back
Next resistance I see is around 7580 below the former uptrend channel. I'll go long above 7650, or so. This would be a confirmation to me that the downtrend is over. But I have doubts this will happen.
Quote from JSSPMK:
This thing is looking a bit (hehe) different now.__________________
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Quote from younouss:
1st target hit 7512
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Nice trade! Let's have some more upside now, c'mon!
Short 3
scaled out 2 +4.5
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3rd +16
Long 3
scaled out 2 +6 (could still go to pivot)
3rd -1
Long 3 banking on short term divergence (1 min) + near pivot support
scaled out 2 +6
added 2 long
buyers, where art thou?
DB?
-3.5 trade what you see
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Long 7475....
Long 3
30 min was obviously bearish, I didn't check that.
Scaled out 2 +7.5
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Quote from ASusilovic:
Long 7475....
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Scaled in with 2 lots
and out 2 +6.5
earlier 3rd stopped for +1, don't like what I see
long 3 support trendline
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Scale out 2 +9
Yahoo!
scaled in with 2 lots
2 out +14
100+ banked
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10 min histogram says Go Bulls!
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Waiting to buy some more FDAX... long 7458.00
Read this comment :
" U.K. lender to get funding from the Bank of England as U.S. subprime woes spill over. Already-battered shares shed a fifth of their value." Ha, ha, ha...funny...now everything is "subprime-related"
3rd out -4.5
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I still favor the downside
Say hello to 7450.. again... yawn.
Here's a multi day format chart, going by what I trust purely and keeping it simple one can see that histogram is declining at a time when price hasn't REALLY made that much of bounce, let alone reversal. Keeping fundamentals out of the picture and just looking at the chart I would say yeah, more downside in the making, can I benefit from being correct? No, unfortunately, too long of a time frame. But intrigued, very much so.
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Long 3
-3.5
Long 3
scaled out 2 +10.5
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Quote from JSSPMK:
10 min histogram says Go Bulls!
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Eventually
3rd +43.5
short 3
scaled out 2 +6.5
3rd b/e
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Closing first FDAX 7521.00.... money, money, money - it´s a honey - in a rich man´s world...( you know that song ? )...
Expecting pullback maybe !! below 7500.00 again...7470 / 7480 area...
LOL AS, why honey? If I were you, then I would keep singing Money money money can be premium vodka in a rich mens world
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Quote from JSSPMK:
LOL AS, why honey? If I were you, then I would keep singing Money money money can be premium vodka in a rich mens world
Mjam ...mjam...
Short 3, potential failure swing
scaled out 2 +10.5
headfake? still short 3rd
-4.5
will look to re-enter short
Short 3
scaled out 2 +11
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3rd lot +14.5
Short 3
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scaled out 2 +10
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Hey, question: Maybe we three or four trading the DAX could form a chat group allowing everyone of us to profit. The posts you make often don't help me much. I either read them too late or I don't have a clue what your current positions consist of and whether you are still in. What do you think?
All my entries can be checked via a time stamp, which is not too accurate, but still near enough and as I mainly use histogram you canquite easily see reasoning behind entries, also I scalp, so sometimes it's a split second decision. I, personally, would not be that interested in committing, sorry. I can do it as a one of or a couple of
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Quote from JSSPMK:
scaled out 2 +10
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AS, BTW, since you're into financials, check out today's story on Northern Rock bank in the UK, pretty much had to be bailed out by the BOE. They lost 1/3 of their MC today, people cueing up to get savings out. Ouch!
Markets might sell-off into the close. Just a gut feeling.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
AS, BTW, since you're into financials, check out today's story on Northern Rock bank in the UK, pretty much had to be bailed out by the BOE. They lost 1/3 of their MC today, people cueing up to get savings out. Ouch!
Markets might sell-off into the close. Just a gut feeling.
Short 3, early morning range breakout
-2.5
will re-enter near same price
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Quote from ASusilovic:
Oh I am already in the story ! Bought some Northern Rock shares ! Think somebody will buy them. Don´t know who will be, but Northern is pretty interesting company for some European players. Credit Suisse by the way mentioned today kind of buyout analysis...
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Long 3
-3
Short 3
scaled out 2 +16.5
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3rd +29.5
long 3 bottom fishing
-1
long 3
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Last trade went -4
then re-entered long, scaled out 2 +12.5
3rd still holding for now, but 3 minute chart's histogram looks bearish now ImO, ready to reverse for short
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Quote from JSSPMK:
"...global liquidity crisis..." sounds worrying. Is that so AS IYO? If customers continue withdrawing funds at the rate registered last week, then there won't be much left of the bank's rep left, who would want it without BOE's support?
http://www.northernrock.co.uk/
3rd -2 & Short 3
-3
Short 3
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Quote from ASusilovic:
You have to read this to understand =>
Two banks, one being Lloyds TSB, are said to have been ready to take Northern Rock over, but only on the condition that the Bank would keep its financing guarantee in place — which it said it wouldn’t.
Those discussions are assumed to have taken place on Thursday, explaining the acceleration of the crisis that day, which culminated in the Bank’s Council of Directors being called to an emergency session at 9.30 that evening.
Friday was a wipe-out as far as the authorities were concerned. But the weekend provided time for the truth to dawn: in a financial crisis the line between solvency and commercial viability becomes blurred; by avoiding moral hazard in not extending the financing guarantee, the Bank was instead guaranteeing that Northern Rock grew from a potential one-bank-collapse to a systemic threat as public confidence in the banking system collapsed.
By Monday the Bank of England had hurriedly reversed its ruling on Rock’s independence; any bank ready to help the authorities can now expect the Bank of England to reciprocate.
Personally, I think it is the arrogance of Bank of England whichled to the crisis...
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Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd -2 & Short 3
-3
Short 3
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Yes, I've seen that. I would be cautious holding that stock AS, once customers leave a bank, they do not return, such is Brit mentality, there are plenty of others to stick cash into. I am just very concerned that it might start small and effect other banks.
BOE made it clear that they will not "save" a bank that failed to show caution when giving out credit, I think they referred to it as binge credit attitude. But things might change, it's so hard to see where this might lead to, I know one thing buy lo & sell hi has been driving the world since the stone ages and things are priced hi now ImO, they have to go down to entice interest, maybe this is THE call for stock and housing markets to start a bearish phase.
In the UK it takes 12 moths now to clear bankruptcy and according to Citizens bureau reports there are untold amounts of people considering and already declaring bankruptcy. One worker from the CB has told me that there are teenagers coming in with £10-15k debts that they can't clear, when I was a teenager it was near impossible to get credit that easy, and it wasn't THAT long ago. Things have gotten out of hand.
its no diff here in Australia. Everyones in debt to their eyeballs. its just to easy to obtain credit!
Short 3
-4
Short 3
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Quote from wiseass:
its no diff here in Australia. Everyones in debt to their eyeballs. its just to easy to obtain credit!
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Property market in Germany is still very depressed in some regions. There was a big speculation bubble in the mid 90s (building properties in East Germany that turned out to be a bad bet) burned many private investors. Real estate prices appreciated in recent years but nowhere close to the UK, US or Spain. Nowhere close to a bubble. I think most of the financing there is rather conservative, people buy houses with 20-30% down payments.
Even more ironic these German Landesbanks and IBK were fooled into the "risk free investments" in US subprime debt
Quote from makloda:
Property market in Germany is still very depressed in some regions. There was a big speculation bubble in the mid 90s (building properties in East Germany that turned out to be a bad bet) burned many private investors. Real estate prices appreciated in recent years but nowhere close to the UK, US or Spain. Nowhere close to a bubble. I think most of the financing there is rather conservative, people buy houses with 20-30% down payments.
Even more ironic these German Landesbanks and IBK were fooled into the "risk free investments" in US subprime debt
Quote from JSSPMK:
It's pretty much same everywhere I would have thought. AS, are you saying that low interest rates have not influenced property buyers in Switzerland and Germany?
Yes, thanks Makloda.
Taking day off, too stale. Good trading all!
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The world's becoming more and more mad, people with so much money don't know what to do with it. Oprah Winfrey just joined the wolf pack by leaving $30m to her dogs in her will, how absurd and completely ignorant is that towards people that have nothing to eat or nowhere to live to do such a thing? $30m to the dogs, unbelievable, absolutely absurd. Dogs are just that, they are furry animals that eat dog food and shit in the park, they don't need diamonds.
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Novemeber orders
Sell Buy
8187.7409 7197.5782
8403.8553 6977.4866
8619.9698 6757.3949
Date 11/26/2007
leaving these GTC
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Quote from JSSPMK:
The world's becoming more and more mad, people with so much money don't know what to do with it. Oprah Winfrey just joined the wolf pack by leaving $30m to her dogs in her will, how absurd and completely ignorant is that towards people that have nothing to eat or nowhere to live to do such a thing? $30m to the dogs, unbelievable, absolutely absurd. Dogs are just that, they are furry animals that eat dog food and shit in the park, they don't need diamonds.
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Short 3 looking good
-3.5 bastards
Have fun bulls, I'll wait
short 3
C'MON!!!
Great pattern on 2 min chart, retrace to 7490 at least
C'MON!!!
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hi all
buying here... 7488
Quote from younouss:
buying here... 7488
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3 looking good
-3.5 bastards
Have fun bulls, I'll wait
short 3
C'MON!!!
Great pattern on 2 min chart, retrace to 7490 at least
C'MON!!!
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short 3
-1
long 3
-2
short 3
-2.5
Long 3
-3
Short 3
-9.5
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Please,
some one,
anyone,
what contract should I be looking at in the DAX futures?
Sept or
DEC,
is the expiration for Sept this Friday?
Same as ES, DEC
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Thanks, JSS
Short 3
-4
short 3
scaled out 2 +10.5
3rd +14.5, Long 3
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scaled out 2 +11
3rd +5.5 short 3
+1 Long 3
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Quote from JSSPMK:
scaled out 2 +11
3rd +5.5 short 3
+1 Long 3
Quote from ASusilovic:
So many short entries today, JSSPMK ?
Put / Call Ratio "suggesting" different story...
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damn what happened there..
lucky i was long too
Quote from wiseass:
damn what happened there..
lucky i was long too
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Short 3
Scaled out 2 +10.5
I feel, base on past similar events, when US opens we'll be on the way down closing US gap.
3rd +18 and Long 3
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all out +0.5
Long 3
-1.5
Short 3
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scaled out 2 +12.5
3rd +13 Long 3
scaled out 2 +7
Holding last lot (for now)
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Back in black, phew!
Most important news of the day =>
Absolut Vodka Maker May Reap $6 Billion in State Sale
Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Vin & Sprit AB, the Swedish owner of Absolut vodka, may be sold for about $6 billion in a government auction that begins next month, five people with direct knowledge of the planned transaction said.
Hope you´re still long altogether as I am ! FED cut 50 BP ! Goldman Sachs and Merrill did know it ! Well, Mr. Paulson, thank you for your support ! And of course, BEN, thank you !
I going long tomorrow (hopefully after a pullback). It broke the downtrend and it wasn't a good play for me before. I'll let the market tell me when to go for it.
Quote from JSSPMK:
scaled out 2 +12.5
3rd +13 Long 3
scaled out 2 +7
Holding last lot (for now)
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AS, BOE guaranteed all NR customer's deposits, amazing, that must be the ultimate PPT.
Still a problem though, how can lowering interest rate by 0.5 make any sort of considerable changes, if people have not been meeting their mortgage arrangements for a certain period of time, then they wouldn't be able to come up with balance overdue unless lenders arrange alternative repayment methods.
__________________
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Short 3
-4.5
Short 3
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Quote from JSSPMK:
AS, BOE guaranteed all NR customer's deposits, amazing, that must be the ultimate PPT.
Still a problem though, how can lowering interest rate by 0.5 make any sort of considerable changes, if people have not been meeting their mortgage arrangements for a certain period of time, then they wouldn't be able to come up with balance overdue unless lenders arrange alternative repayment methods.
- their models are most probably showing a huge probability that we might fall into recession if not acted now and determined !
At some point one should be very careful about the next incoming macroeconomic data ! U.S. nonfarm payrolls and other indicators will show us where we are heading for. I am generally bullish but not too bullish as we are also into earnings season and I bet we will see a mixed picture on the various sectors ! The time for broad based stock gains may be over for now ! Stock picking is the name of the game ! Paper work....
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3
-4.5
Short 3
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long 3
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Quote from ASusilovic:
The time for broad based stock gains may be over for now !
Quote from Marcell:
I going long tomorrow (hopefully after a pullback). It broke the downtrend and it wasn't a good play for me before. I'll let the market tell me when to go for it.
Quote from JSSPMK:
long 3
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short 3
scaled out 2 +8.5
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3rd +28.5
Long 3 off 50%
-3 for now
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Short 3
3 minute chart is opposite of 1 minute one, so ready to reverse if support holds
scaled out 2 +10.5
3rd +12 Long 3 off 61.8%
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3 minute chart - great divergence, will post in a minute
1.35 est, time is right, go bulls
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Quote from JSSPMK:
3 minute chart - great divergence, will post in a minute
1.35 est, time is right, go bulls
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C'MON, you aren't going down, so Up we go, C'mon, stop faking
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5 minute now looking good
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Quote from JSSPMK:
C'MON, you aren't going down, so Up we go, C'mon, stop faking
Short 3
AS, you know I don't follow earnings etc
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hey JSS you are an amazing scalper! Great day yesterday!!
Scaled out 2 +8
TY Y! Appreciated, though less is more & I am still to get my head round that one
3rd +16, Joining AS Long 3
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Long FDAX 7712.00... And watch out for some professional "currency babblers" - EUR above 1,4000, hurting EURO economy bla, bla, bla...
-4.5
Long 3
-3.5
Long 3
divergence
break trendline
scaled out 2 +10.5
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Quote from ASusilovic:
Long FDAX 7712.00...
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wohoo!!
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Still holding 3rd lot, would like to see re-test of 7775.
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Still holding 3rd lot, would like to see re-test of 7775.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Pretty tough price action so far...GS superb, but Bear Stearns dissappointing. Not helping FEDEX´ profit warning...
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Closed intraday FDAX...no clear picture...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Closed intraday FDAX...no clear picture...
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
You've left me to the wolves, how could you?
Great start into the morning ! FDAX long ! Bought some DAX Call Options and earned some decent money within 15 MIN since FDAX opening ! In effect, I could close my books for today ! What a spike ! But indicators were predicting the move....
any reason for the sudden run up?
• 13:00 DE Verfall DAX-Future u. -Optionen (Eurex
^^ What does that mean?
I guess thats the settlement date + time for the dax futs + options?
Quote from THEWOOD:
any reason for the sudden run up?
Quote from JSSPMK:
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Quote from ASusilovic:
Great start into the morning ! FDAX long ! Bought some DAX Call Options and earned some decent money within 15 MIN since FDAX opening ! In effect, I could close my books for today ! What a spike ! But indicators were predicting the move....
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Nice bonusen towards de weekendstein
Yes Makloda you are right on the spot
That's what I see at the moment for Monday.
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We can see 7865 as 1-st target for today...
Also we can see CAC40 at 5740 & DOW at 13910...
GL
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Short 3
-2.5
Short 3
2nd smaller peak possible
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scaled out 2 +6
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3rd +20 Long 3
scaled out 2 +9
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added 1 lot
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Quote from nik1033:
We can see 7865 as 1-st target for today...
Also we can see CAC40 at 5740 & DOW at 13910...
GL
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check my system with systemtrack.ucoz.ru
1 more lot long
average long 7859
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Quote from JSSPMK:
That's what I see at the moment for Monday.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
1 more lot long
average long 7859
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DAX seems to target 7810 today...
GL
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we can see CAC40 at 5750 today...
GL
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check my system with systemtrack.ucoz.ru
Long 3, C'mon!
Scaled out 2 +9.5
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1 min chart suggests that another upward thrust is possible towards the pivot, if it does it will create a 3rd peak on 1 min's histogram, so I would reverse and go short there.
Actually it started having a go at lower trend line as I was typing, still long 3rd lot.
But histogram is closing higher, so 3rd lower peak above centreline is still a possibility. Let's see.
3rd -1
no 3rd peak
3rd peak, not best...short 1 lot
-3.5
Short 3
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-3
Long 3
-0.5
will wait for it to settle down a bit
Long 3
Shift please
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Think, we may see range 7813-7872 today...
Long FDAX 7813.00...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Long FDAX 7813.00...
What for a boring session ! zzzzzz.......seems, I need to activate a little bit more of my dynamic hedge....everybody expecting bad housing numbers from U.S. and Consumer Confidence...
Quote from ASusilovic:
What for a boring session ! zzzzzz.......seems, I need to activate a little bit more of my dynamic hedge....everybody expecting bad housing numbers from U.S. and Consumer Confidence...
Another loss on last trade -4.5
Let's test hourly histogram, Long 3
Shite! Another loss, -7.5
Long 3 off S1
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Quote from younouss:
hi am back after a break!
buying here target 7860
Quote from JSSPMK:
Another loss on last trade -4.5
Let's test hourly histogram, Long 3
Shite! Another loss, -7.5
Long 3 off S1
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Short 7868
Stop placed @ 7866
Told you so...dynamic hedge works...
Target FDAX 7872.00 reached...have a nice day !
Quote from younouss:
Short 7868
Stop placed @ 7866
2 hour chart setting up with 3rd potentially lower peak, MACD is above centreline and slope is so far perfect. I will nail this once we get 3rd lower peak. Haven't done any more trading today, well done AS, Younous we need to get it together man
Short 3
5 min chart. beautiful, come to papa
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ok dude Short 5 for me
I think we might see tomorrow once again 7813...7816... Depends on ES closing...
histogram reverting, scaled out 2 +5.5
C'mon you pricks bid lower LOL
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3rd out +0.5
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That's what I see on 2 hour chart, so fingers crossed mates.
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Long 3
Scaled out 2 +10
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Quote from younouss:
ok dude Short 5 for me
Mutual fund managers in Germany are very sceptic on behalf of DAX regaining this year´s high. Yesterday one declared 8000 as their limit for an upside move. Another one - in fact the managing director of Germany´s largest mutual fund - stated : "We will not see new highs this year."
I like this sort of skepticism....
If they are to take it up, now is a good time. 2 hour chart's formation is still valid, so bulls have to either start acting now, before bears try to gain advantage. 3 minute chart is lining up for some upside. Interesting.
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It's a buy
^GDAXI 10.00 Days
----Sell---- Wednesday, September 26, 2007 ---Buy---
7985.7060 ------------------------------------------ 7677.9444
8062.6464 ------------------------------------------ 7601.0040
8139.5868 ------------------------------------------ 7524.0636
------
^GDAXI Friday, October 05, 2007
----Sell---- ------------------------------------------ ---Buy---
8320.7892 ------------------------------------------ 7890.1367
8428.4524 ------------------------------------------ 7782.4735
8536.1155 ------------------------------------------ 7674.8104
===============================================
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
3rd +8.5
Short 3
All out +2.5 Long 3
reversed short 3
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I still see some room for FDAX into 7950-7970 area...doesn´t mean I am overly bullish...just a little bit...
Hourly is now ready to crossover, 2 hour chart has its 3rd lower peak now + divergence, C'MON! Let's get it down!
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Hourly is now ready to crossover, 2 hour chart has its 3rd lower peak now + divergence, C'MON! Let's get it down!
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Quote from ASusilovic:
I still see some room for FDAX into 7950-7970 area...doesn�t mean I am overly bullish...just a little bit...
Quote from JSSPMK:
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short 3
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Quote from JSSPMK:
short 3
Quote from ASusilovic:
Good idea, but maybe a little bit too early...we have not yet hurt the BEARS as much as they would have to suffer...
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Quote from JSSPMK:
yes, you could be right, why the spike?
b/e
Short 3
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German unemployment rate falling. 50.000 new jobs created. REUTERS !
Quote from ASusilovic:
German unemployment rate falling. 50.000 new jobs created. REUTERS !
I will close this month also up double digits in percentage terms ! August and September 2007 will be kept in rememberance as the subprime mania / credit crunch / CDO era...Hopefully some people have learned their lesson about risk management...
bravo buddy!
sept was not really good for me..;
Good to hear you done well AS!
Whatever goes up, must .... ....
Let's play hangman
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Quote from JSSPMK:
b/e
Short 3
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Good to hear you done well AS!
Whatever goes up, must .... ....
Let's play hangman
Quote from ASusilovic:
I took a look at ODAX PUT / CALL Ratios for October and it´s self-explanatory =>
ODAX Okt 07 105,821 2.68175 950,352 5400 / 9400 81
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Quote from ASusilovic:
I took a look at ODAX PUT / CALL Ratios for October and it´s self-explanatory =>
ODAX Okt 07
Contracts traded = 105,821
PCR =2.68175
Open interest = 950,352
Strike Price Range 5400 / 9400
Strike Price Series = 81
Quote from ASusilovic:
In one word => pretty bearish...
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Is that today's data?
Quote from ASusilovic:
Yesterday.
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I think that's the accumulated interest in that option expiration (Contracts traded = 105,821).
Quote from JSSPMK:
What I meant to say was do you value 1 day's worth of data?
Because I am a piker I do not work off a daily chart, but I found this article on put/call ratio interesting, some very wise quotes there also.
http://www.zealllc.com/2002/putcall.htm
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Quote from JSSPMK:
What I meant to say was do you value 1 day's worth of data?
Quote from makloda:
I think that's the accumulated interest in that option expiration (Contracts traded = 105,821).
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Quote from JSSPMK:
That's what I see on 2 hour chart, so fingers crossed mates.
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Short 3, maybe it's ready
Hopefully those failure swings will mark a start to some retracement, 2 hour chart is now wel ready, histogram made 3rd lower peak and now crossing over the centreline.
Scaled out 1 +9.5
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Scaled out 2nd +22.5
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I am short, too ;=)
Quote from ASusilovic:
I am short, too ;=)
Quote from younouss:
same here since yesterday morning
we need one more for "les 4 mousquetaires"....
Flat for today. Not enough momentum. We are building a gap in ES before market opening. Bulls will try to close it. Looking for a new short entry later on today...Maybe before the U.S. data releases...
Scalping may be a good idea...
Selling some FDAX into this spike...
3rd +85.5 WOW, what a drop
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Fat finger? What the heck was that?
NICE $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ for me ! Thank you ! Have a nice day !
Quote from makloda:
Fat finger? What the heck was that?
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I am off to the pub, nice shorting there mates
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Quote from JSSPMK:
I am off to the pub, nice shorting there mates
Quote from ASusilovic:
Have a good one !
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Quote from JSSPMK:
TY! The beer was cold, nuts were salty & I splashed out £30 on a lap dance, I told you I was a piker
I nicked Surfer's chart, as I wanted to point out histogram divergence that created a bounce/reversal. I really like histogram
And prior there are 2 rising lows in histogram & with MACD above centreline, also excellent.
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Here is what I see and to sum it up - I'll be watching out for weaknesses on short term charts, as 8000 does seem to be a logical level to anticipate bears to step in + profit taking it could happen before price touches 8000.
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I also noticed a spike in Gold back in 06 and now obviously breaking all time highs. Back in 06 stock markets sold off, perhaps it was cyclical as well, I don't know that. Right now we have Gold adding $100 in a very short amount of time, this could also probably point to money flowing into metals, partially from stocks?
And ImO (and that is pure conviction of mine) no matter what Iran does now (be it positive or negative) it is almost imminent that US will be somehow intervening, a shift in Gold confirms my gut feeling on Iran. If the outcome is positive, then world stock markets will go through a bull market phase like never before, again just a prediction more than anything else. Add to it crude oil up up up.
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Long 3
-3.5
Long 3
-2
Long 3
-4
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FTSE open shake out
Long 3
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Scaled out 2 +15.5
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Did you notice FDAX retreating 5 times from 7960 levels....???? Just my humble observance...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Did you notice FDAX retreating 5 times from 7960 levels....???? Just my humble observance...
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Yes, what are your thoughts?
Just my humble opinion...By the way ODAX PCR 3.22472...
Quote from ASusilovic:
The notorious "4 times FDAX sell-off"- rule...
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It probably won't match the DAX option PCRs but US index options PCR average historically is around 1.8. I.e. A US PCR significantly higher than 1.8 indicates a bearish/hedged market exposure by "sophisticated investors" (=index options!!!)
Quote from JSSPMK:
Well you know my view on this, I just can't trade longer term charts. It would be interesting to see an average of the PCR, like on that chart. I have no idea how to organise it.
Quote from makloda:
It probably won't match the DAX option PCRs but US index options PCR average historically is around 1.8. I.e. A US PCR significantly higher than 1.8 indicates a bearish/hedged market exposure by "sophisticated investors" (=index options!!!)
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3rd +30.5
Short 3, 3 lower peaks
Scaled out 2 +9.5
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Let's say the last 5 years, daily data.
Quote from JSSPMK:
which period average do you refer to?
Quote from makloda:
Let's say the last 5 years, daily data.
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3rd +26 and Long 3
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Scaled out 2 +12.5 and holding 3rd long for now.
It's interesting, 10 minute chart shows a definite triple failure swing to upside, with 2 hour chart looking the way it does it calls for a decline any time now. All I can think is that we are waiting on US markets to signal a turn or total breakout to upside. Hard to say, bearish bias for sure personally remains.
10 minute chart's histogram altered and no 3rd peak is present now, so it's not to be considered as a bearish signal.
FDAX short term charts do not show anything I would be interested in to go short, perhaps as yet, looking at ES though 1 minute chart is looking kind of possible ending up with a triple divergence, too quick of a run up also will be good for a fade ImO/E
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3rd +31 and short 3
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8000 almost reached... maybe a good entry for a short...
I was cained on last trade, had to take -11.5 point loss on 3 lots. Looking hard for a short entry now.
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Had to reverse my position today ! Doesn´t happen too often ! Bute here we go ! Short squeeze "a la carte" !
I am modestly bullish as banks have unloaded their toxic waste to befriended private equity and / or hedgefunds entities. We should see maybe some kind of profit taking today, but generally "bullish" sentiment should prevail....
Long 3
-3
Long 3
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For US investors, continued falls for the dollar make international investing look more profitable. Germany’s Dax index is up 28.6 per cent in dollar terms this year, and only 19.2 per cent in euros.
With the Fed cutting, the dollar lost critical support. One of the simplest ways to bet on further falls for the dollars was to buy emerging market equities and switch out of smaller companies into multinationals.
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3
-3
Long 3
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current 1 minute chart, C'mon!
Scaled out 2 +14.5
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No fun markets. Lot of irritating moves.
Staying long 1 lot
out 3rd +2 (typo)
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Short 8014.00
Quote from ASusilovic:
Short 8014.00
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I missed a darn good entry off 2 minute chart.
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Short 3
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Scaled out 2 +6
3rd +5
Long 3 ES 2 minute chart about to take off
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Stopped out -3.5
Long 3
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All out +10
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Not doing a ting before announcements today
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Quote from JSSPMK:
hedged?
From what I see hourly chart's MACD has crossed centreline downwards, but histogram, which ImO offers better win rate in general, is below the centreline and now on 3rd rising dip, so to me that means caution if short, as price can go through stops very sharpish, hence I asked whether you are hedged, apart from that I have no idea obviously reasoning behind short, but would like to know
But now it´s working....FDAX 7988...
finally some short here... I'm struglling since monday... but fortunately As dynamic hedging method is helping a lot... Thanks again!
I think I take some profits....
Quote from younouss:
The other day I posted a comment from one of the leading German asset managers here, Klaus Kaldemorgen. He´s the managing director of Deutsche Bank´s mutual fund affiliate DWS. The guy predicted he does not think DAX will see new highs this year...Whether he is right or wrong remains to be seen -as I am mostly sceptic about "experts" predicting tops or bottoms...
Quote from younouss:
Quote from ASusilovic:
The other day I posted a comment from one of the leading German asset managers here, Klaus Kaldemorgen. He´s the managing director of Deutsche Bank´s mutual fund affiliate DWS. The guy predicted he does not think DAX will see new highs this year...Whether he is right or wrong remains to be seen -as I am mostly sceptic about "experts" predicting tops or bottoms...
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Quote from ASusilovic:
Sometimes it�s really funny how it works ! Yesterday I have been a buyer of 8200 ODAX Calls....
Quote from ASusilovic:
But now it´s working....FDAX 7988...
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Flat.....
I went long 3 at 20ma on hourly
no change in rates
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+3.5 Short 3 failure swings
scaled out 2 +10.5
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Quote from JSSPMK:
+3.5 Short 3 failure swings
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I prefer option play over here....
3rd +7.5
Long 3
Scaled out 2 +15
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Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd +7.5
Long 3
Scaled out 2 +15
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Don´t wanto to bother you out there but I heard on BLOOMERG TV that HSBC is expecting 400k jobs lost in NFP numbers tomorrow...Just a rumor...No warranty as to the validity...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Don´t wanto to bother you out there but I heard on BLOOMERG TV that HSBC is expecting 400k jobs lost in NFP numbers tomorrow...Just a rumor...No warranty as to the validity...
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Quote from JSSPMK:
I expect that would have been priced in before data release, there is a price tag for any information. Would you consider that as a negative, if that was to be so?
Quote from younouss:
hum... I have this short bias... I keep small position right now...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Don´t wanto to bother you out there but I heard on BLOOMERG TV that HSBC is expecting 400k jobs lost in NFP numbers tomorrow...Just a rumor...No warranty as to the validity...
Hi JSSPMK,
interesting topic. I am also trading mainly dax.
What indicators do you use (Histogram ?, MACD?)
I use no indicators, I always look for "strange" behaviour.
Like for example showing relativ strength against ES, which often means a lot of traders may soon be on wrong side if ES recovers etc.
I often trade Dax and hedge with ES and vice versa. The best trades are often Dax panic moves (on both sides long and short) after Dax Cash close.
I never use hard stops in Dax.
Or those mysterious "DAX IS SUDDENLY COMPLETLY IGNORING ES MOVEMENT" after the DAX cash close
Quote from Topsurfi:
The best trades are often Dax panic moves (on both sides long and short) after Dax Cash close.
Quote from makloda:
Or those mysterious "DAX IS SUDDENLY COMPLETLY IGNORING ES MOVEMENT" after the DAX cash close
makloda
Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 2382
09-28-07 05:03 PM
I think ASusilovic just entered SELL 7952 DAX DEC @ LIMIT 1, that explains everything
ECB Says Banks Expect Credit Conditions to Tighten
European banks may make it harder for companies and consumers to borrow money in the next three months after the slump in the U.S. subprime mortgage market increased the cost of credit, the European Central Bank said.
``Banks generally reported'' that the recent credit-market turmoil ``may hamper funding over the next three months,'' the Frankfurt-based ECB said in its quarterly bank lending survey, which was published a month earlier than usual today. ``Banks' willingness to lend over the next three months may be affected, to some extent, by the effect of the credit market events on the costs related to the banks' capital position.''
[...]
Banks also forecast ``a further net tightening of credit standards'' for home purchases in the fourth quarter and conditions for consumers are expected to ``tighten considerably,'' the ECB said. Banks expect net demand for housing loans to remain ``significantly negative'' and consumer-credit demand to stay unchanged.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...c&refer=economy
Sometimes it´s a good idea to listen to the ECB...They warned markets months ago about "herd-like" mentality in credit derivatives...I think rate hike cycle is definetely over...
Quote from Topsurfi:
Hi JSSPMK,
interesting topic. I am also trading mainly dax.
What indicators do you use (Histogram ?, MACD?)
I use no indicators, I always look for "strange" behaviour.
Like for example showing relativ strength against ES, which often means a lot of traders may soon be on wrong side if ES recovers etc.
I often trade Dax and hedge with ES and vice versa. The best trades are often Dax panic moves (on both sides long and short) after Dax Cash close.
I never use hard stops in Dax.
am flat here...
I only use histogram, it's now positive on 1 minute chart, bullish pattern
closed into momentum
Topsurfi, I think I also trade price action, but instead of tape I use histogram calculations. ImO histogram deciphers tape and records a clearer picture what's been done on bid/ask over last period, whatever it might be, especially divergences. There is a reason for everything and indeed there is/are reasons why price pulls away from an indicator. I did try tape based trading but found that it wasn't for me, it's more for the young and very sharp minded ones, I am just a piker that sat in front of a monitor for a long long time
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Quote from carl0215:
I also like to look at relative strength in the DAX against the ES. However, I found the spread moved too much to hedge effectively.
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you are completely right. One might assume, that sometimes the tail swings the dog...
I think the truth is that sometimes in ES in low volume environment before they start a buy program or a small fake move they begin to collect some Fdax positions for some aditional gain.
For example if ES is falling and Dax falling and it looks like a realy ugly day bud suddenly the dax is collected and does not confirm new low then its time to get to the long side, and if only for a few minutes.
Another option is to use panic moves in Dax just some seconds before the dax close at 10p.m. local time and hedge extreme spreads with ES. Works very very good long term.
Quote from JSSPMK:
What I came to realise is that you can foresee ES with DAX on 1 minute chart's oscillations (some times) and vice versa. There are 2 types:
1) If either one has a more definite pattern and is during its RTH then go with that one;
2) FDAX starts to shift sometimes a couple of seconds before ES goes into gear. To be able to follow that ImO I would need to anticipate a move off a longer term chart like 10 minute one as ES is sluggish on short term charts, in actual fact I stopped trading ES altogether.
Quote from Topsurfi:
...sometimes in ES in low volume environment before they start a buy program or a small fake move they begin to collect some Fdax positions for some aditional gain.
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Merrill Lynch plans to take $4.5 billion writedown on CDOs, subprime mortgages.
Fdax lost almost 50 pts, good entry point for a long
Short 3
All out + 12 and Long 3 will post chart
not liking histogram now, but not enough to reverse/stop
MACD still rising bit by bit
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3
All out + 12 and Long 3 will post chart
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3
All out + 12 and Long 3 will post chart
not liking histogram now, but not enough to reverse/stop
MACD still rising bit by bit
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Quote from Topsurfi:
you are completely right. One might assume, that sometimes the tail swings the dog...
I think the truth is that sometimes in ES in low volume environment before they start a buy program or a small fake move they begin to collect some Fdax positions for some aditional gain.
For example if ES is falling and Dax falling and it looks like a realy ugly day bud suddenly the dax is collected and does not confirm new low then its time to get to the long side, and if only for a few minutes.
Another option is to use panic moves in Dax just some seconds before the dax close at 10p.m. local time and hedge extreme spreads with ES. Works very very good long term.
Quote from JSSPMK:
My biggest enemy is my occasional inability to wait out a better pattern than the one I am looking at at the time, impatient I am. Still lots to learn!
Expect some range trading 8051.00 - 8099.00 today !
Quote from ASusilovic:
Expect some range trading 8051.00 - 8099.00 today !
Quote from ASusilovic:
Expect some range trading 8051.00 - 8099.00 today !
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Long 3
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3
Long 3 in face of controlled retracement
scaled out 2 +9.5
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Range broken. Short 8047.00...Maybe pullback to 8064 area, but keeping short !
Good chance we will see 8022.00 again...
Expect once again sideways session...8034.00 / 8082.00...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Expect once again sideways session...8034.00 / 8082.00...
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
4 hour chart=use caution if going long
1 hour chart=points to bullish bounce (price + histogram)
Fast fall to 8034.00 might suggest a little bit more pressure on FDAX today...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Ahhahahahahaah =>...British goverment guarantees new deposits with Northern Rock ! Just went over the news ticker ...
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Makes perfect sense, even though our tax money is being used as a guarantee factor.
Quote from younouss:
8120 1st target...
Quote from ASusilovic:
That´s what we ware paying taxes for ! To help failing business models out of their mess !
If you are in trouble and your business is large enough and utterly important for the well-being of our "democratic" macroeconomic outlook => ask your local parliament member for some "moral hazard" interpretation !
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Quote from JSSPMK:
If Northern Rock was allowed to go down that would be the end of Labour in government, people would have blamed the government for not intervening, they had to do it, out taxes will go up again though.
Quote from ASusilovic:
That´s what people do not understand ! Government is spending on rescuing Northern, but through the back door they will "repatriate" these "expenses" by hiking their "income base"...
Funny expression "income base"....ha, ha, ha....
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Went Long light crude November
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Upper FDAX range reached...8080....short !
What was that at 7:06???
Quote from carl0215:
What was that at 7:06???
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Quote from JSSPMK:
It doesn't matter
Quote from Topsurfi:
the fact that it has been sold into quite heavy speaks for itselve, this market is vulnerable.
To many longs now waiting for the old Dax high and may be very dissapointed if Dax fails here so watch out for a possible very heavy drop - but wait for confirmation.
FED minutes to be published today have been important highs the last times.
__________________
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Quote from carl0215:
What was that at 7:06???
short 8071
Quote from ASusilovic:
Upper FDAX range reached...8080....short !
Quote from JSSPMK:
Went Long light crude November
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Quote from ASusilovic:
I like My FDAX ! $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
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Quote from younouss:
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One "suggestion" ! Take a look at the BIG SPOOZE ! We still have not closed GAP from Friday last week ! DAY SESSION shows GAP 1552.20 - 1558.60...Just my humble observation....
And if I may add a headline at marketwatch :
Retail shares edge down on September sales worry
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...D&dist=hplatest
Quote from JSSPMK:
sold 2/3rds @ +$1.03 profit
I am buying some OTM DAX Calls today...dynamic hedging...
Quote from ASusilovic:
I am buying some OTM DAX Calls today...dynamic hedging...
MACD on 4 hour chart HAS to go through centreline soon, looks very extended ImO.
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Looking for weakness on 10 minute chart, in meantime just shorted Gold.
Long 3
-3
Long 3
-3.5
Long 3
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Quote from younouss:
hi Asusilovic, which call did u buy?
thanks.
I added another short position at the opening...
Seems, dynamic hedge works !
Quote from younouss:
thanks.
I added another short position at the opening...
Quote from ASusilovic:
very good idea !
took some profit here
Yeah good idea, too, seems somebody has huge interest to fight for yesterdays settlement...i.e. in effect 7980 in the underlying...
JSSPMK, seems, I have a buy opportunity in 5 Min chart for you ! MACD crossing on upward momentum....
Quote from ASusilovic:
JSSPMK, seems, I have a buy opportunity in 5 Min chart for you ! MACD crossing on upward momentum....
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Yes, am long holding on to my balls
Had to reverse Gold to long also, wicked reversal pattern on 5 minute chart also.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
sold 2/3rds position +$3 profit, here is reversal on 10 minutes, I was in earlier off 3 minute chart, plus 5 was already starting to look good.
Rest closed as well, Shorted with $1 stop
my ID target is reached!
FDAX lows last couple of days 8021.50, 8023, today 8023.00
FDAX highs 8081.00, 8087, today 8082.50....
Need for a breakout !
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The word Kaput comes to mind , the curve on that MACD is unreal, perhaps selling will commence before RTH tomorrow, I'll be on short term charts hehe
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This beast of a market keeps wedging up and up and up. It will crack soon though IMO.
Will be curious to see how they drop it. Up then down or down more down?
Any downside will be limited me thinks.
Quote from [Proximo]:
This beast of a market keeps wedging up and up and up. It will crack soon though IMO.
Will be curious to see how they drop it. Up then down or down more down?
Any downside will be limited me thinks.
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Short from the start !
And buying deep out of the money NOV DAX calls...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Short from the start !
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Quote from JSSPMK:
shorting all spikes
The market is due for a good sized down day. Today may be the day.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Quote from [Proximo]:
The market is due for a good sized down day. Today may be the day.
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Is that too much to ask? Probably see a bounce off pivot now
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This is going to be a classic bull / bear fight...
Great VOLA today ! Mjam mjam....
Quote from ASusilovic:
Great VOLA today ! Mjam mjam....
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All I can say is that I am pleased for keeping a small position in light crude, ImO oil will be up in next 2Q.
Went long FDAX upon retrace to 8096 (8099.50 entry)
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Prior to oil inventories earlier on there was yet another pattern on histogram, which is also to be seen on up to 5 minute chart I believe, 1 minute narrowed it down to a few ticks for a $0.50 gain
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This was exactly what I was talking about -- the good ole up "squeeze" than down.
Up then down. Engineered by your friendly neighborhood I-Bank "Goldman Sachs"
Quote from [Proximo]:
This beast of a market keeps wedging up and up and up. It will crack soon though IMO.
Will be curious to see how they drop it. Up then down or down more down?
Any downside will be limited me thinks.
It´s a pity ! Haven´t been in the office today ! Just made some trades early in the morning and had to leave !
BANG ! What a volatile day !
JSSPMK, was you that triggered that sell-off, what ?!
Quote from [Proximo]:
Engineered by your friendly neighborhood I-Bank "Goldman Sachs"
Quote from ASusilovic:
It´s a pity ! Haven´t been in the office today ! Just made some trades early in the morning and had to leave !
BANG ! What a volatile day !
JSSPMK, was you that triggered that sell-off, what ?!
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Got your shorts on, kaput round the corner
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Shorting near peaks small stops
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Shorting near peaks small stops
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Shorting near peaks small stops
Quote from Topsurfi:
I am little surprised that Dax is not reacting more strongly to ES drop. There seem to be some strenght against ES building.
There could be a surprising move up soon.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Anything is possible, I am hoping they are trying to take it up to bring it down, so far brisk short upside, good sign of substantial downside especially on lowered histogram formations.
4th lower on 1 min now
Quote from Topsurfi:
I went long 8042.
I have only few times seen such strong signals of instituionals collecting Fdaxs while small people selling into the bid.
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Quote from Topsurfi:
I went long 8042.
I have only few times seen such strong signals of instituionals collecting Fdaxs while small people selling into the bid.
JSSPMK,
please post a DAILY FDAX Chart with MACD indicator...pretty interesting constellation...
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Went long based on 2 min chart's histo, since I am the one propagading trade what you see
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Quote from JSSPMK:
You are on mate
I was stopped out for 3rd time now, managed to scale out on 2nd attempt though.
Quote from Topsurfi:
scaled out some now 55-60.
The important things to observe is if you see something "strange". Usually people like to trade the "normal" things so today that would have been to sell because of the very bad distribution day in ES, and indeed this was very very bad in ES, high volume selling after this low volume drift up the last couple of days.
So why the hell did Fdax not fall like a stone today like it normaly would ?
I don't know.
There may be a couple of reasons, sometimes the Dax is not following ES after to many Up-days because Dax is afraid of a correction in ES looming and then Dax is relieved if the correction in ES is there (it had already discounted this correction).
Another reason may be that the selloff in ES was only a big party sell program by Goldman and friends and they will lift it up again today. If this is the case, they earn some aditional pocket money with buying dax here.
Anyway someone with strong hands collected Fdax today and you can assume this was not a stupid one, so follow the big ones, not the small ones. And trade the strange things (not fade them), not the normal things.
Philipp
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which brokerage are u using for FDAX
i see u guys trading now.. what time fram do u trade ... is it 2 p.m cst to 4 p.m cst. what kind of liquidity is there in FDAX ... i had been reading and trying to trade it...seems like it has 1 mil contracts traded... so for trding less than 6 contracts i dont expect to have much slippage is it true
Topsurfi, I have a question for you, considering that they are indeed one, it's just different markets, but essentially they trade all markets. When they are tightly correlated THEN DAX drops like stone in morning session, like last February.
So my question is this - do you know whether it is possible to unite all major indices into 1 data driven chart?
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Quote from JSSPMK:
pennant now, histo should show where it's heading
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Re: which brokerage are u using for FDAX
Quote from billdobson1972:
i see u guys trading now.. what time fram do u trade ... is it 2 p.m cst to 4 p.m cst. what kind of liquidity is there in FDAX ... i had been reading and trying to trade it...seems like it has 1 mil contracts traded... so for trding less than 6 contracts i dont expect to have much slippage is it true
Quote from JSSPMK:
Topsurfi, I have a question for you, considering that they are indeed one, it's just different markets, but essentially they trade all markets. When they are tightly correlated THEN DAX drops like stone in morning session, like last February.
So my question is this - do you know whether it is possible to unite all major indices into 1 data driven chart?
Quote from ASusilovic:
I can do so...
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looks good
13:05 c'mon 2 min macd!!!
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Quote from JSSPMK:
looks good
13:05 c'mon 2 min macd!!!
Quote from ASusilovic:
Quite obvious, isn´t it ?
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Hi JSSPMK,
I have such charts running here, where I substract Dax from ES with a certain multiplier applied to ES which reflects the average volatility which is higher in Dax then ES anyway all the time.
Its a good indicator to see if something behaves odd.
I don't have a unite graph for all indizes together because I am mainly interested in Dax/ES and know what to watch there.
I am very carefull with all new graphs and settings because in the beginning they harm more than do good.
But I like your MACD stuff although I think I could not be good in it. I like more the tape reading in FDax.
Quote from JSSPMK:
Topsurfi, I have a question for you, considering that they are indeed one, it's just different markets, but essentially they trade all markets. When they are tightly correlated THEN DAX drops like stone in morning session, like last February.
So my question is this - do you know whether it is possible to unite all major indices into 1 data driven chart?
Quote from JSSPMK:
looks good
13:05 c'mon 2 min macd!!!
__________________
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Quote from Topsurfi:
Hi JSSPMK,
I have such charts running here, where I substract Dax from ES with a certain multiplier applied to ES which reflects the average volatility which is higher in Dax then ES anyway all the time.
Its a good indicator to see if something behaves odd.
I don't have a unite graph for all indizes together because I am mainly interested in Dax/ES and know what to watch there.
I am very carefull with all new graphs and settings because in the beginning they harm more than do good.
But I like your MACD stuff although I think I could not be good in it. I like more the tape reading in FDax.
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
TY! & TY AS!
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the thing is "don't short here".
It can work, but the chance is high you burn your greedy fingers.
Tapereading its obvious that a lot of people are still on the wrong side and have to cover before Dax close.
So unless there is a big reversal in ES you have to buy the Dax dips here and not short.
The hole day was a day of frustration for bears and it is likely to get even worse.
Quote from Topsurfi:
the thing is "don't short here".
It can work, but the chance is high you burn your greedy fingers.
Tapereading its obvious that a lot of people are still on the wrong side and have to cover before Dax close.
So unless there is a big reversal in ES you have to buy the Dax dips here and not short.
The hole day was a day of frustration for bears and it is likely to get even worse.
__________________
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one minute ago a perfect short signal a divergence between Dax and ES.
Dax strength ove now.
Quote from JSSPMK:
You're right, that 10 minute chart that I posted looked the part, but there have been 0 bearish set-ups on 1 & 2 minute charts following that pattern on 10 min, there has to be weakness present on short term charts.
There is something on ES 5 min now, but again has to be seen on lower frame charts as well.
Quote from Topsurfi:
one minute ago a perfect short signal a divergence between Dax and ES.
Dax strength ove now.
Quote from Topsurfi:
Dax fell nearly 40 points like a stone.
The reversal at 8120 was very harsh and came seconds before the ES reversed (slightly).
The reason why Dax changed behaviour so much within seconds can only be that a larger trader have been caught with pants down by other groups and they ran for his/their stops which had been placed most stupidly above the HOD from yesterday.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Turkey announced that they may invade into Northern Iraq...
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
I have no big idea for today...so a little bit scalping does finance my breakfast...
Quote from ASusilovic:
I have no big idea for today...so a little bit scalping does finance my breakfast...
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
I think, I found a very bullish headline !
German eco newspaper "Handelsblatt" headline : "Small investors missing bull market"
Buy, buy, buy !
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...............what a boring session...can anybody in London hit one wrong button ?...Ha, ha, ha....
Quote from ASusilovic:
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...............what a boring session...can anybody in London hit one wrong button ?...Ha, ha, ha....
Quote from younouss:
hum yes the buy button is requested please...
trade commodities Asusilovic!
"This was a disappointing quarter, even in the context of the dislocations in the subprime mortgage and credit markets," said Chuck Prince, Citi's chief executive.
"A significant amount of our income decline was in our fixed-income business, where we have a long track record of strong earnings, and this quarter's performance was well below our expectations," he said in the earnings release.
Reflecting the recent mortgage and credit woes, Citi said revenue generated in its U.S. markets and banking busienss declined 87% in the September quarter.
Citi said credit costs increased $2.98 billion, mostly due to credit losses of $780 million and a net charge of $2.24 billion to increase loan-loss reserves.
Chuckie, Chuckie, Chuckie....what´s up with you ? Grab your axe and clean up your fixed income division !
ouch reversed at 8070
Quote from younouss:
ouch reversed at 8070
Quote from JSSPMK:
Got your shorts on, kaput round the corner
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
might see a bounce this am
perhaps not 1 min shows lower
so does 2 min
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Long 3 near suport zone
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Look for 7973 / 7976....
WOW ! What a cool bull / bear fight 8000 / 7990 !!! Great !
I think, JSSPMK, you should have entered your long exactly at 08:45 CET !
Quote from ASusilovic:
I think, JSSPMK, you should have entered your long exactly at 08:45 CET !
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
yes, it was a negative trade, because it was so close to support, loss incurred was acceptable, it still looks like a possibility that we break out looking at hourly chart, will re-enter long near same level.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Are you watching OIL ? 86.76 !
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
yes, I am out of light crude trade. I did ask on ES thread whether higher oil prices need to have a reflection in indices trading lower, I mean higher oil valuation=lower profits in the end of the day, unless busiesses adjust at the same time.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Look for 7973 / 7976....
Could this be a classic short squeeze today?
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Could this be a classic short squeeze today?
DAILY ES SMA at 1551.75...it´s up to you to draw your conclusions...
Quote from ASusilovic:
DAILY ES SMA at 1551.75...it´s up to you to draw your conclusions...
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
you know last year I believe, there was a similar scenario when 4 hour chart formed a classic very extended divergence, I was waiting for it to start retracing...it did a bit & then train full of bulls went through all resistance levels, hence I have now lost faith in that divergence that I kept posting. Instead, I am looking at the hourly chart and histogram is starting to climb on lower time frames, so yes, ImO we won't head much lower, we haven't already & that means something, doesn't it?
FLAT FDAX ! 17:15 CET
Quote from JSSPMK:
you know last year I believe, there was a similar scenario when 4 hour chart formed a classic very extended divergence, I was waiting for it to start retracing...it did a bit & then train full of bulls went through all resistance levels, hence I have now lost faith in that divergence that I kept posting. Instead, I am looking at the hourly chart and histogram is starting to climb on lower time frames, so yes, ImO we won't head much lower, we haven't already & that means something, doesn't it?
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
I had no bigger idea in the morning as to go long, but we have some serious trouble over here breaching 8022.00...
Quote from ASusilovic:
I had no bigger idea in the morning as to go long, but we have some serious trouble over here breaching 8022.00...
Quote from ASusilovic:
I had no bigger idea in the morning as to go long, but we have some serious trouble over here breaching 8022.00...
Quote from Topsurfi:
I also went long Dax yesterday evening but look what dax makes out of ES+8 points.
Dax does not want up, its that simple. If it would like to go up it would be up 50 points now.
Better go short any time now, can hedge with ES long.
Phil
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from younouss:
ouch reversed at 8070
Closed my short this morning. Thinking about reversing, but will wait for the US!
30 min MACD=coiled spring, watch out shorts
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
30 min MACD=coiled spring, watch out shorts
Quote from Topsurfi:
added short 8028
Still hedged first short with 2 ES long, but will soon cover hedge.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
30 min MACD=coiled spring, watch out shorts
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Why are you short, everything points to upside break ImO, I am just curious.
Quote from Topsurfi:
there was a strong divergence between ESTX and ES compared to Dax which strongly lagged behind. Normaly such divergences continue, but not in this case as Dax released this to upside.
It was clearly not a good trade, but you never know that in advance.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Sold 1 lot at upper trendline +59.5
2 lots remaining
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Sold 1 lot at upper trendline +59.5
2 lots remaining
great trade!
Quote from younouss:
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
TY! ImO FDAX will go much much higher, but as TS said we never know in advance.
BTW you did well on that short as well, very good timing to cover
long 8045
Quote from JSSPMK:
Sold 1 lot at upper trendline +59.5
2 lots remaining
Quote from younouss:
long 8045
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from younouss:
long 8045
Somebody seems to have great appetite for FDAX 07:00 p.m. CET...
They won't get my 2 lots, not yet anyway LOL
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
They won't get my 2 lots, not yet anyway LOL
Quote from ASusilovic:
Unbelievable JSSPMK ! I am impressed !
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]Yes I am impressed also.
I bought a lot of stuff below 1540 - level....
Quote from Topsurfi:
I am lost today. Not seen such strange Dax behaviour in weeks.
Confused, not trading any more today.
However, my ZB long gave nice profits now after days and days of waiting.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Selling part of my ES longs at 1554.50...
By the way, JSSPMK :
The UK is among the countries most at risk of a steep housing market downturn, with property even more over-valued than it was in the US before the recent correction, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.
The IMF cut its forecasts for world economic growth next year and warned that if tight credit conditions persisted, their effect on US and European housing markets could be a significant drag on the global economy.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Selling part of my ES longs at 1554.50...
By the way, JSSPMK :
The UK is among the countries most at risk of a steep housing market downturn, with property even more over-valued than it was in the US before the recent correction, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.
The IMF cut its forecasts for world economic growth next year and warned that if tight credit conditions persisted, their effect on US and European housing markets could be a significant drag on the global economy.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
short at the opening...
That's US housing composite monthly chart, clearly no conviction shown in chart.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from younouss:
short at the opening...
Quote from younouss:
flat 16 pts
Quote from ASusilovic:
I hope the comment is right ( I am not familiar with this idiom ):
Brevity is the soul of wit.
Quote from JSSPMK:
Yes, property is overvalued, so many people can't afford to get onto the property ladder. We have recently lost £20k on a property that was purchased off plan, we sold in time as now these flats are being marketed for £90k less than the original asking price, imagine that for negative equity! And they weren't overpriced if looking at other similar properies, simply demand went out the window and builder marked prices down together with estate agents. Government keeps saying that housing sector still short of properties, what they don't say is that property IS NEEDED AT PRICES PEOPLE CAN AFFORD!!!
Might see 8050 - 8100 range play today....
short again 8062
May see 8033-8040....
Quote from ASusilovic:
May see 8033-8040....
ought to bounce off pivot according to my method
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
zzzzzzzzzzzzz..........same procedure as last year, Madame ? Boring....
four times failure break of yesterday's R2, holding long though
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from younouss:
short again 8062
Quote from younouss:
short again 8062
Well done, DAX has been slow lately
thanks Helgo
Long 8019,50
stopped -6
gosh!
thanks to my stop order!
Ok, trading the Bund today. Long since the morning and was lucky and got a nice move upp.
what the hell happened?
like 100 point drop in 15 minutes...
Quote from JA_LDP:
what the hell happened?
like 100 point drop in 15 minutes...
wtg Y!
still long
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Nice VOLA today ! Didn´t catch any time to post but very profitable day, indeed !
I pay tribute to Bank of America ! Thank you guys for filling my pockets ! God bless you ! Amen.
Time for some premium VODKA !
Rhinebridge Plc, a structured investment vehicle run by IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG, said it may not be able to pay back debt related to $23 billion in commercial paper programs.
Rhinebridge suffered a ``mandatory acceleration event'' after IKB's asset management arm determined the SIV may be unable to repay debt coming due, the Dublin-based fund said in a Regulatory News Service release. A mandatory acceleration event means all of the SIV's debt is now due, according to the company's prospectus.
ES down 6 points ! Oil at 90. Asia retreats.
The yields on short term treasuries have been shrinking all week, while commercial paper rates climb. The spread between three month t-bills and Libor keeps getting wider. While overall commercial paper issuances grew, asset backed commercial paper issuance shrank for a 10th straight week. Implied volatility is down from its highs, but sits right about where it was at the end of July.
7860 maybe target today...Depends on whether ES will significantly break 1534-1536 area...
I know it doesn't look promising, but I would like to see a bounce.
Looks like ES is being held, long live PPT!
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
I know it doesn't look promising, but I would like to see a bounce.
Looks like ES is being held, long live PPT!
5 MIN FDAX is showing one of your favorite patterns, JSSPMK !
Quote from JSSPMK:
I know it doesn't look promising, but I would like to see a bounce.
Looks like ES is being held, long live PPT!
Quote from Topsurfi:
also watch Euro today. Could be a possible short setting up soon, failure on new high on 60m.
ZB went cracy like I thought it would.
Dax will be easy to trade today since VOLA cicks in again.
Philipp
Quote from ASusilovic:
5 MIN FDAX is showing one of your favorite patterns, JSSPMK !
)))__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Looks like it's turning out to be a headfake p/a after all big grin
I see good divergence on 3 btw
what a gap!
Am enjoying the beach in Mauritius!! see ya next week. Good trades!
Quote from younouss:
what a gap!
Am enjoying the beach in Mauritius!! see ya next week. Good trades!
Quote from Topsurfi:
yea, was there several times in LeMorne for surfing (now kiting).
Euro already dropped 30 pips since my last post.
Quote from younouss:
what a gap!
Am enjoying the beach in Mauritius!! see ya next week. Good trades!
Here it's cold, nobody has a tan and DAX needs a kick up the ass__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
You jammy jammy man!
Quote from ASusilovic:
I put on my kick ass boots ! Here we go ! 7974 !
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
You jammy jammy man!
Bulls putting up a good fight so far. C'MON!
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Bulls putting up a good fight so far. C'MON!
Quote from JSSPMK:
Bulls putting up a good fight so far. C'MON!
Quote from ASusilovic:
Don´t forget, still my kick-ass boots on....
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Well go & kick ES then
Quote from ASusilovic:
I boght some stuff at 1523.00 and 1526.00....can´t do much more !
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Are you averaging you buy orders?
But no similar set-up on ES, only 4 hour leaves positive expectancy for next week.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
So whats going on in the DAX again? ES down 1.6%, DAX down 0.3 now @ 2:44pm EST. What's lending the DAX support? Opinions?
Quote from makloda:
So whats going on in the DAX again? ES down 1.6%, DAX down 0.3 now @ 2:44pm EST. What's lending the DAX support? Opinions?
Very bad day ! Especially ES ! I warned about the implications of SIV´s and the repeating problems in commercial paper markets and did not stick to my own analysis !
Quote from ASusilovic:
Very bad day ! Especially ES ! I warned about the implications of SIV´s and the repeating problems in commercial paper markets and did not stick to my own analysis !
The setup for Monday is perfect. News headlines around the world recalling "eerie similiraties" with 1987 crash !
I think we will see Monday a big surprise for BEARZ. Name of the game will be "bargain hunting". I will be a buyer on dips !
Long 7816.00. Buying on dips.
Flat as a pancake, going to wait for charts to settle down.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Each pair of 100% solid brass balls
comes in a very cool velvet bag, with a free polishing cloth and and brass polish. Order three or more pairs of balls and shipping is FREE!
FOMC is the only consideration, besides bullets flying....from Turkey...
then we rally hard up.
__________________
Trade the price action not the price.
Quote from Spectre2007:
FOMC is the only consideration, besides bullets flying....from Turkey...
then we rally hard up.
Hi to all!
I'm trading DJ Eurostoxx50 since 2005.
Long December @ 4348.
Dax Target
8,150
From around these Levels
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
I think 'sell a lift & claim your gift' (I like this rhyme) is still in order, short 3 (triple divergence on 2). Stops above today's high.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
I think 'sell a lift & claim your gift' (I like this rhyme)
Take a look at EUR / USD parity ! Very interesting !
Quote from JSSPMK:
I think 'sell a lift & claim your gift' (I like this rhyme) is still in order, short 3 (triple divergence on 2). Stops above today's high.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Stopped out and re-shorted off 2 min histo
Quote from ASusilovic:
You play it from short side ? Seems to me we might see some short squeeze today as almost "everybody" is convinced of a slowdown of U.S. economy.
Quote from ASusilovic:
You play it from short side ? Seems to me we might see some short squeeze today as almost "everybody" is convinced of a slowdown of U.S. economy.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
ImO, considering how charts look (1-4 hour) I would be skeptical to play it long, if we were to hit a very important support zone, then price should have put in either a hammer or a solid engulfing bar on say 4 hour chart, also histogram just doesn't look bullish on any of the frames that would indicate a dip. I mean a dip it might be, I am just not ready to lay it out, unless I see something worthwhile.
Assuming the above I would also assume that other savvy traders are not willing to buy right now, it's upto big players to hold support and I do not see it happening. It's either bounces strongly and I miss initial move up OR there HAS to be a build up on 1-4 hour chart, which I don't see.
So again assuming all above is logical I would rather play it from short side for now.
Quote from ASusilovic:
I just asked because all Brokers / Banks are green on my screens...even CITIBANK !
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Price always oscilates, that is nothing to wonder about. My main view is that price either really really bounces OR there has to be some sort of basing period, Jeez, just look at 20 average slopes on 1,2,3,4 hour charts, you can easily arrange another ski slalom there
FDAX closed 7879.00
For those who might be interested in some research :
ASSESSING RISKS TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY ( a publication by the International Monetary Fund )
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft...2/pdf/chap1.pdf
Closed estx @4412
Open short @4402
Will add @4429
I think, I will buy some FDAX below 7885.00...
I think they will walk it up to bring down together with ES, 4 hour chart still not looking as it ought to even though 50% retrace been reached and bounced off.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
ImO, considering how charts look (1-4 hour) I would be skeptical to play it long, if we were to hit a very important support zone, then price should have put in either a hammer or a solid engulfing bar on say 4 hour chart, also histogram just doesn't look bullish on any of the frames that would indicate a dip. I mean a dip it might be, I am just not ready to lay it out, unless I see something worthwhile.
Assuming the above I would also assume that other savvy traders are not willing to buy right now, it's upto big players to hold support and I do not see it happening. It's either bounces strongly and I miss initial move up OR there HAS to be a build up on 1-4 hour chart, which I don't see.
So again assuming all above is logical I would rather play it from short side for now.
Also 20 average slope on 1 & 2 hour charts is just way too radical even for me
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Keeping my short
Take care, New York Times reporting MERRILL is adding 2,5 Billion to the 5 Billlion losses already announced. We will see a news driven market today !
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/24/b...=rssnyt&emc=rss
hi All
Buying here 7897
Quote from younouss:
hi All
Buying here 7897
Difficult for me, I'm GMT+6
Maybe 7821.00 tested....
bought again 7867
Quote from elitetrader101:
When does the DAX open for regular trading in Eastern time?
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from younouss:
bought again 7867
Quote from younouss:
sold half @ 7882 (Break even)
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
S2 ImO provides bouncable support more often than S1
Quote from younouss:
yep! only dynamic hedging here...
I just keep an eye on EURJPY
European Services Growth Accelerated in October
Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's services index rose to 55.6 from 54.2 in September, according to a preliminary estimate, Reuters Plc reported.
sheryll quite contrary...1528 crunch time in spooz... work it work it..
__________________
Trade the price action not the price.
Quote from Spectre2007:
sheryll quite contrary...1528 crunch time in spooz... work it work it..
$ADV $DECL
Hi is there $ADV $DECL for the DAX and if so what are the symbols? Regards Outlander
Quote from younouss:
sold half @ 7882 (Break even)
long 7896
flat fdax
any idea?
Europe is very strong today. It'd be already -2.5%. Long looks interesting tomorrow.
sold fdax 7874
flat -16
FX spot and Currency Future
Does anyone here know which broker has account for trading:
FX spot and Future in one account?
Please let me know the website.
Thanks ahead.
ib and saxobank offer futures and forex as well
Are they allow for one account trading
Thanks, younouss.
What is IB? I know the other one.
since several days, there is a dramatic change in ES/Dax behaviour. Anybody taking notice of this ?
I still don't know how to handle it.
Seems like Dax is ignoring ES like never before.
Like today, huge huge volume at 7863 - 7880 in Dax about 1 hour after wall street opening. Someone put thousands of Daxfuture in the bid and supported this - but why ?
Will this result in a strong up-move once ES recovers ?
No answer yet.
Re: Are they allow for one account trading
Quote from Bless:
Thanks, younouss.
What is IB? I know the other one.
Thanks, younouss. I have just spoke to them.
But, none of them offer the spot interest free account.
Quote from Topsurfi:
since several days, there is a dramatic change in ES/Dax behaviour. Anybody taking notice of this ?
I still don't know how to handle it.
Seems like Dax is ignoring ES like never before.
Like today, huge huge volume at 7863 - 7880 in Dax about 1 hour after wall street opening. Someone put thousands of Daxfuture in the bid and supported this - but why ?
Will this result in a strong up-move once ES recovers ?
No answer yet.
Quote from Topsurfi:
since several days, there is a dramatic change in ES/Dax behaviour. Anybody taking notice of this ?
I still don't know how to handle it.
Seems like Dax is ignoring ES like never before.
Like today, huge huge volume at 7863 - 7880 in Dax about 1 hour after wall street opening. Someone put thousands of Daxfuture in the bid and supported this - but why ?
Will this result in a strong up-move once ES recovers ?
No answer yet.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
I would have liked to see it around 8700 before the upside.
Seems, it will be no ES/DAX correlation in 2-3 years. Everybody will correlate only with Shanghai Composite
Closed short ESTX @4400. No positions for today.
Those nervous, rumours vulnerable WallSt people deprived me of $$$!!
correction, no $$$, ˆˆˆ!!!
IFO numbers at 10 a.m. CET. Cool V-Shape formation yesterday. : cool : Bounce in ES related to rate cut hopes next week. Could be a nasty sell-off, if FED keeps on hold. FDAX looking for 7940 / 7950 area to short.
Lufthansa up 2.2% on 78% profit growth
France Telecom up 3.8% on upped cash flow targets
Shell up 0.8% after topping earnings estimates
L'Oreal down 2.7% after Q3 numbers, UBS downgrade
ABB up 3.6% after 86% profit rise
This board is dominated by U.S. company news and users. We need a shift to a more European / Asian / global view !
Quote from ASusilovic:
IFO numbers at 10 a.m. CET. Cool V-Shape formation yesterday. : cool : Bounce in ES related to rate cut hopes next week. Could be a nasty sell-off, if FED keeps on hold. FDAX looking for 7940 / 7950 area to short.
Looks like price has more favourable odds of breaking out of pennant to the upside
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Looks like price has more favourable odds of breaking out of pennant to the upside
Quote from younouss:
interesting correlation with JPY currencies
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
nice chart for you guys.
__________________
Trade the price action not the price.
Breaking News :
CHINA
Growth rate slows
China GDP still rising over 11%, but down a bit vs. last quarter.
Down a bit!??? I am impressed ! Ha, ha, ha...
Quote from Spectre2007:
nice chart for you guys.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Looks like price has more favourable odds of breaking out of pennant to the upside
thinking going short around 7990...
Waiting 8008....short
Quote from ASusilovic:
Waiting 8008....short
but maybe need to to wait 8007/9
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119...asia_whats_news
China's economy slowed to a still-fast growth rate of 11.5% in the latest quarter, in a possible signal that economic growth has reached its peak this year and could slow further.
interesting!
Closing 7970 part of position. Keeping trailing stop for the rest.
Quote from younouss:
triggered one bullet already
done!
Covered 7955.00 another part
I think we need a dynamic hedge over here ! 7966
did you see that candle in 1 minute at 7:23 ! 70 points to do in a few seconds, 140 if you reverse !
Quote from ml77:
did you see that candle in 1 minute at 7:23 ! 70 points to do in a few seconds, 140 if you reverse !
Anybody knows what caused that spike in both Dax and Eurostoxx?
Quote from fseitun:
Anybody knows what caused that spike in both Dax and Eurostoxx?
if you look at the charts you will notice the estoxx refused to go below 4410 whilst the spoos dropped 9 handles. finally someone entered a massive sell order in estoxx and dax that caused the spike down, which was quickly reversed. that is the reason.
MSFT ! Very good numbers ! AIG a little bit in the spotlight because of subprime related write-downs. But manageable. If an insurer does not understand risk management, who does ?
Expecting upward bias with high oil prices being a drag on overall development.
May see retest of 8000 level and if ES breaks through 1530 even higher prices !
GL+GT
Long FDAX 8003.50
Long FESX @4443
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.......
long 7986
Too many smart people
Paper Long here 7985, as I am already long
What a classic shake out, bastards in one word.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Paper Long here 7985, as I am already long
What a classic shake out, bastards in one word.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from nvl7:
Too many smart people
flat 8019
Quote from younouss:
flat 8019
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Technically perfect entry & exit, well traded!
Really pi..ed today by action in FDAX. ES rallying 10 points and FDAX playing around like in play school !
ES seems to be hovering under previous Support line and the YM is sitting under a TL from the past couple of days
Quote from ASusilovic:
Really pi..ed today by action in FDAX. ES rallying 10 points and FDAX playing around like in play school !
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
I think it could be to do with a present divergence on 60 minute chart in DAX (not on ES), midpoint in divergence is around 7920. I understand the frustration though as this is not very typical p/a of DAX, is it?
Not too certain, but looks like upside breakout of pennant has better odds.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
I think BPT ( Bounce Protection Team ) is at work in FDAX today !
Quote from ASusilovic:
I think BPT ( Bounce Protection Team ) is at work in FDAX today !
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Countrywide +32 % today ! LOL ! Merrill up 8 % ! GS up 4 % ! Need more to say ?
Interesting week is coming - Fed, earnings, data, month end. Magnetic storm was on Friday. Traders will be very busy
Will close long at Monday opening, wait for further gains to open short.
FDAX pre-market 8054. Finally. Why not Friday ?
My long swing is now just over 100pts gain, I posted my opinion on Qs on ES thread and expected them to rally based on weekly very strong close. Look at Asian indexes today already a reaction. All world markets ought to get into bull gear this week and take off.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Closed long FESX @4501
Quote from JSSPMK:
My long swing is now just over 100pts gain, I posted my opinion on Qs on ES thread and expected them to rally based on weekly very strong close. Look at Asian indexes today already a reaction. All world markets ought to get into bull gear this week and take off.
Quote from nvl7:
Closed long FESX @4501
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
I’m trading two strategies in eurostoxx, swing and intraday. At the morning I’m looking at put/call ratios, volumes, US markets and making a view for a day. I’m holding swing position for a day or two, using low leverage.
If I have enough time, I’m trading intraday with another account in the direction of my view, buying deeps and leveraging down (2 times, not more )
The beginnings of an 18 month equity bubble
John Dizard, writing in FTfm, predicts the start of an equity bull-run; a traditional end of cycle rally. The bubble hasn’t popped, it’s just beginning to inflate. Over the next 18 months, says Dizard, we should expect to see equity markets shoot the moon.
There are three pre-cursors to that:
1. Central banks must set aside their “delusional” dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and cut policy interest rates.
2. The market in doom-and-gloom financial punditry will run out of steam, having accelerated the depressive part of the current credit cycle to its bottom.
3. New money.
Of Dizard’s three conditions, it’s the last - new money - that is perhaps the most significant:One traditional sign of a decade-plus top in a market is the entry of well financed, but less well informed punters. Foreign institutions are usually the ones who come in to any market at the end to pay for the last round.
www.ftalphaville.com
UBS posts 3rd-quarter loss on subprime-securities losses
BASF Q3 net up 97.9% to 1.21 bln euros
Metro Q3 pretax up 10% to 180 mln euros
Earnings season...And - as it seems - German unemployment numbers falling 90.000...shows underlying strength of German economy, which is by the way mainly export-driven...
Stops fishing below 8033...
Flat FDAX. It´s FED time !
Quote from ASusilovic:
Flat FDAX. It´s FED time !
as for historical comparison, market tends to rise, as bond yields rise with it as a easing cycle gets underway.
eventually bond yields rise to a point that a competition occurs for moneyflows. With 4.6% on the 30 year. This buys significant amount of time for equities on a longer term timescale to move up.
usually around 8% on the 30 year, people start reassessing moneyflow ratios between credit/equities.
__________________
Trade the price action not the price.
O.K. Wall Street has its "preemptive rate cut" - to keep it in FED language. So what´s next ? Funny part of the story : yesterdays GDP figures. Imagine you´re reading newspapers in the U.S. ! Economy growing over 3.5 % and FED´s lowering rates in order to "stimulate" it ! Ha, ha, ha...
You have to be long this market, even though inflation doesn´t seem to be a problem with oil hovering around 96 per barrel.
Recalling good old days when treasury traders would have punished this kind of FED policy by massive decline in prices and not only a lousy couple of ticks...
long here 7885
stopped
Long 7959.00
long again 7848
My sell order FESX @4522 is active since the open.
I was too greedy
Quote from ASusilovic:
Long 7959.00
Quote from ASusilovic:
Bad entry today
Quote from younouss:
try dynamic hedging...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Very good idea !
Long FESX @4401
Long FDAX 7853.00. Ready to buy some more. Dynamic hedge in place !
Banks and brokers slaughtered yesterday in U.S. Expect some bargain hunting.
And, there is one piece of news that made me think we should near the end of the subprime mess :
Paulson & Co. scaled back bets against subprime-mortgage securities, recording investment profits that helped the New York-based hedge-fund manager double assets to $24 billion this year.
``We felt it advisable to lock in most of the gains'' in its merger and corporate event-driven funds, the firm said in a third-quarter report to investors obtained by Bloomberg. Paulson cut holdings of securities linked to subprime home loans by 86 percent across its eight funds in those two strategies.
Cool, Paulson !
Closed long FESX @4406
Long 7825.50...
Quote from younouss:
long again 7948
I've joined in 7834
scaled out +11
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
there is a divergence now on the 60 minute chart
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
there is a divergence now on the 60 minute chart
Quote from younouss:
can you post a chart please?
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
I have no better idea then to stay long....
Quote from ASusilovic:
I have no better idea then to stay long....
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
I see this as a possibility.
zzzzz....12 point range in one hour...zzzzz....
i like this US closing!
time to enjoy a vodka now!
Quote from younouss:
i like this US closing!
time to enjoy a vodka now!
Long 3
scaled out 2 +10
Morning Y!
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3
Toyota Profit Rises on Overseas Car Sales, Weaker Yen
ING Third-Quarter Net Income Rises 47% on Stake Sales
Swisscom Profit Rises on One-Time Gain, FastWeb Deal
Oil Rises Above $98 to a Record on Dollar, North Sea Disruption
Everything rising - even subprime jitters !
So, FDAX must rise, too, or ?
Hum...forgot to mention :
Australia raises key interest rate 0.25% to 6.75%
stopped here
I got stopped out on trail also, there was a failure swing on 2 minute chart that I use ie 2 lower peaks in HIstogram and MACD lower low.
Long 1
Looks like they will try 7814, IF then I'l add 1 more lot there
stopped out
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Long from 7800 and 7810
Half out at 7825... Hmm
Still
JSSPMK, seems you have been right with downward move first before bouncing back above 7916...
Has been too aluring to hit the stops below 7806.50...
Quote from ASusilovic:
JSSPMK, seems you have been right with downward move first before bouncing back above 7916...
Has been too aluring to hit the stops below 7806.50...
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
By the way, these stops hit on high volume ....10k in 5 MIN...
i just saw 2 readings in the time&sales >3000 abt 5 seconds apart without price moving an itch. whats that about?
this is through IB data
long again 7822
Quote from younouss:
long again 7822
Seems old record playing on Wall Street :
I don´t trust you, you don´t trust me. Together we worsen subprime mess !
You downgrade us, we downgrade you...
Quote from wiseass:
i just saw 2 readings in the time&sales >3000 abt 5 seconds apart without price moving an itch. whats that about?
this is through IB data
Short DAX at 7740 brings money right now (according to spread betters)
Will be long FESX from the opening.
Long FESX @4346
Nobody alive after yesterday's plunge?
FDAX 7905.50...I like my DAX...
Topic talk of the day :
Emilio Botín, chairman of Santander, on Thursday pulled off an impressive deal by selling Banca Antonveneta, an Italian bank it had just acquired, for an instant 60 per cent profit. Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world’s oldest bank, said it had acquired Banca Antonveneta from Santander for €9bn. Santander has only just received Antonveneta as part of the carve-up of ABN Amro. It had valued the Italian bank, which has a 3 per cent market share, at €6.6bn. As part of the deal with MPS, Santander will keep Antonveneta’s corporate banking division, which is separately valued at about €1bn. As a result, Santander estimates it has made an instant capital gain of about €3.4bn out of the sale.
That´s what I call a cool "trade"...
there are important things happening in the Dax during the last 10 days. There are really big pockets still collecting every Fdax they can get. So believe me, there is still a huge imbalalance between the week hands (that sold) and the strong hands (that collected them).
You can assume that once the bad news are relaxing a little bit (oil, Euro, etc) this thing will explode to and above the old highs since all the weak hands will start covering.
I have only the idea that it might be china diversing their money from Dollar into Euro-Stocks. It does not matter who it is anyway.
Only a real crash in USA could halt this scenario.
Quote from Topsurfi:
there are important things happening in the Dax during the last 10 days. There are really big pockets still collecting every Fdax they can get. So believe me, there is still a huge imbalalance between the week hands (that sold) and the strong hands (that collected them).
You can assume that once the bad news are relaxing a little bit (oil, Euro, etc) this thing will explode to and above the old highs since all the weak hands will start covering.
I have only the idea that it might be china diversing their money from Dollar into Euro-Stocks. It does not matter who it is anyway.
Only a real crash in USA could halt this scenario.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
I have the same idea here, looking for a entry here, will be 3rd attempt. Good thing I bought puts last 2 times, will do same this time round.
There is a classic pattern on 4 hour chart, trouble is we can either rally right now or get a headfake move to test support, sucking in weak longs and then taking off wildly. So hedge is important.
Good luck to all, buying or selling.
AS, I am answering here instead of ES journal, yes, but headfakes are a regular occurance, but it does look like it's quite ready to head towards average divergence price zone, also FDAX seems to be frontrunning with it's 4 hour chart.
I have opened long position off daily pivot, hedged. Looking forward to 4 hour chart making it happen.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Judging by 1 minute histogram leading to a pennant apex we ought to have a lift here
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
I can´t remember last time we experienced the kind of late session sell-off like on Friday. I am getting really, really bored by subprime news flow. Yawn ! Ebay has been the latest "casualty". for some value investors Financials are beginning to be interesting, although we may see lower prices. But who is going to ask in 2 years time about this confidence crisis ? It will be remembered as one of the market corrections - and that´s it.
Looking back at the Russian crisis, LTCM, Argentina, Asian crisis...where do we stand now ?
We are living in a global economy. IB´s are looking to generate more income out of U.S.
In the summer I read already about the departure of some Wall Street Vice Presidents to their new location in London. Guess why ? Europe and Asia are the new playing fields !
So, I play it with the FED: and FED´s message is, we will avoid recession !
I stay long, hedge in place. Market´s year end rally just a matter of when to start !
Banks Said to Agree on Credit Backup Fund
The country’s three biggest banks have reached agreement on the structure of a backup fund of at least $75 billion to help stabilize credit markets, a person involved in the discussions said yesterday, ending nearly two months of complicated negotiations against a worsening economic backdrop.
Officials from Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase reached agreement late Friday, settling on a more simplified structure than had been proposed, said this person, granted anonymity because he was not authorized to talk for the group.
Bank participants, money market investors and even some managers of the troubled investment vehicles that would benefit most had considered previous versions of the fund to be infeasible, casting doubt over a final plan. Discussions had been taking place since early fall, when the Treasury Department convened a meeting.
Now, the proposed fund could begin operating by the end of December, this person said. The banks could begin asking roughly 60 financial institutions to contribute to the fund by Friday or early next week.
It´s high time...
HSBC to reveal new $1bn sub-prime hit
HSBC will this week reveal a further $1bn (£475m) of bad debts stemming from its American mortgage business, amid mounting fears that the full impact of the global credit crunch has yet to wash up on British shores.
never-ending story...
Long 7809.00
If I am right, the London guys are targeting stops beneath 7800.00. Lots of weekend night club bills need to be paid....
Quote from ASusilovic:
If I am right, the London guys are targeting stops beneath 7800.00. Lots of weekend night club bills need to be paid....
Quote from ASusilovic:
Lots of weekend night club bills need to be paid....
Quote from makloda:
Here are the guys manipulating the DAX, caught partying in a "warm" London club. On the left Sir Richard Brumblebee, head of equity trading at Barclays, on the right Barton Bustanut, prop desk manager at Citibank London
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from younouss:
7780?
FSE IKB DEUTSCHE INDUSTRIEBANK 13,11 € +0,52 +4,13%
LOL !!!
long 7811,5
stop entry +2
Quote from younouss:
long 7811,5
stop entry +2
Wow, what a hottie. But I think with the London crew you'd only get a collective yawn with her
Quote from ASusilovic:
the London desks...if a succesfull weekend - means a lot of "senoritas bonitas" - like this blessed beauty
Pretty late in the session, but we broke 7800.00...Hope, enough shorts are visting these levels, so we can have a nice bounce ...
The yen is appreciating “too fast” and speculators need to “be careful”, Yasuo Fukuda, Japan’s prime minister, warned in an interview with the Financial Times on Monday.
THE BEARS ARE OUT
Bearish sentiment rose to its highest levels since mid-September as the S&P 500 declined 3.71% last week. When asked for their current view on the S&P 500, 55% of respondents marked "Bearish" in the Bespoke Market Poll last week.
Very good setup !
Very nice opening 7791....
Still holding long that was so nice on Friday
Quote from ASusilovic:
Very nice opening 7791....
Morgan Stanley said it was shifting its stance on European banks to cautious from in-line in tandem with its equity strategists cutting financials to underweight from neutral and equities to neutral from overweight. "We share the strategists' belief that the deepening of the ongoing financial crisis could have a serious impact on the economy and see greater risk of the current credit crunch leading to a recession in the U.S. - our U.S. economists themselves see a 40% risk of a US recession," said Huw van Steenis, an analysts at the brokerage.
Here we go. Recession scenario. Ha, ha, ha...
We either bounce or another 300 pts towards next support zone on daily chart.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Around 10:09am (Frankfurt time) all of a sudden the price gapped down 10 points within 1 second. Fortunately for me I was short, otherwise it would be a nasty loss. Thankfully these gaps do not happen often outside news times of course.
Do you expect a breakdown of support RD? Maybe post a chart or just commentary?
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
No momentum building...seems FDAX wants to revisit 7750-7780 levels...
Quote from JSSPMK:
Do you expect a breakdown of support RD? Maybe post a chart or just commentary?
Nice close. Remains to be seen whether we will have follow through tomorrow.
Closed long fesx @4377
Thank you, mr. Blankfein!
4 hour chart shows a classic bullish set-up, either a serious headfake towards support or solid upside towards resistance zones.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
long 7803
Quote from younouss:
long 7803
Quote from nvl7:
Closed long fesx @4377
Thank you, mr. Blankfein!
Quote from ASusilovic:
It´s always funny to watch London desks running for some lousy stops and closing gaps...Yawn...
Long FDAX 7769 and buying more...
LONG fdax 7757
There is a descending triangle starting back on 9th, which on its own is technical bearish factor, but MACD, so far, is in upward jigsaw. There is still over a 100 point range within the triangle, so we are not near the apex meaning range is still possible before a breakout occurs. If I was trading an intraday triangle, then I would be considering something like a 10 minute chart's histogram to point direction near the apex, but this is a congestion area which is multi day. Anyway, I am a bit confused right now, will take some time off and re-analyse charts with a fresh mindset, sometimes when stare at screen for a long time start seeing things that are not really there.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
There is a descending triangle starting back on 9th, which on its own is technical bearish factor, but MACD, so far, is in upward jigsaw. There is still over a 100 point range within the triangle, so we are not near the apex meaning range is still possible before a breakout occurs. If I was trading an intraday triangle, then I would be considering something like a 10 minute chart's histogram to point direction near the apex, but this is a congestion area which is multi day. Anyway, I am a bit confused right now, will take some time off and re-analyse charts with a fresh mindset, sometimes when stare at screen for a long time start seeing things that are not really there.
Majority of market players is expecting weak Q4 growth in U.S. and almost every "expert" forecasting credit crunch to have "severe" impact on broader economy...
BUT ! What is going to happen in Q1 2008 ? The picture all these so called experts want to paint is "recession" scenario, because they are smarter then FED is.
Don´t fight the FED ! FED is telling you : no recession ! I agree. Global growth at 4.8 % rate. That´s recessionary ????
Keep my longs and don´t waste my time with what ceratin market players want to make you to "believe" !
Long off S2 looks good rr
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from ASusilovic:
Sometimes it´s worthwhile to take a look at underlyings...especially weekly Chart...
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from younouss:
LONG fdax 7757
Quote from younouss:
added 7672
It´s a long time ago that I had to adjust my hedging ratio, but here we go. Paid horrendous premium today !
Quote from RedDuke:
Hi Younouss,
What stops do you use? It went down a lot (in my book) after you went long at 57.
Thanks,
redduke
Quote from younouss:
my stops are both technical S&R and financial. Usually i use 100/150 pts stops on fdax depending on volatility.
I can hedge with a €stoxx or with Fdax March 08 to reduce the loss.
News from our friendly neighbourhood investmentbank Goldman Sachs :
German economic gazette "Handelsblatt" reporting GS cut German stock market to "neutral". Thanx to our !! LONDON !! GS strategist Peter Oppenheimer citing "risks for the DAX"...
Also some very intelligent comments from a Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein ANALyst:
20 % earnings growth for German companies shall come down to 10 % in 2008. Based on the scenario this years "fair value" of the DAX stated as 8100 should be near 7500 in 2008.
Hum, good to know that we´re only 160 points from fair value away. Cash DAX close 7667.03...
Forgot to mention :
Peter Oppenheimer recommending buying PUTS on DAX !
Long
1 unit 7632,5
1 unit 7627
2 units 7609
I'll be happy to sell Peter some
Quote from ASusilovic:
Peter Oppenheimer recommending buying PUTS on DAX !
bought earlier @ 7610
I have my long @ 7757 hedged yesterday with a short March 08 fdax
1,5 units out 7650
0,5 unit out 7660
Didnt like this formation.
Last 2 units out 7646.
Have a nice weekend
Got my ass handed to me again, bad loss, puts helped out a bit.
Anyway, back to short term trading, no bias. Still wanted to post this monthly chart that starting to look bearish, not calling a DT yet as support still there, but if I saw that divergence on an intraday chart I would have been taking shorts near tops after 2-3-4 failure swings, so maybe (just maybe) large trading houses that do implement technical analyses are seeing this and considering that this could be a logical time to offload their stock portfolios.
Apart from looking at charts and just looking at our day to day lives we can clearly see that we tend to live our lives in a bubble for last 10 years roughly, credit's becomes a hell of a lot easier to obtain for the lower earning bands and they are the ones that are now failing to meet their credit obligations. Can this massive debt be just written off with no reflection on indexes? I think no way it can, hence we are seeing this uncertainty in price action, neither up, nor down. Are we ready to pop and by doing so accepting the consequences for both relaxed lending practices and our own inability to manage credit? We will decide, all of us.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Short 3
-4
Short 3 near R + Divergence on 1 min
scaled out 2 lots +9.5
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
3rd +13
Long 3
Scaled out 2 +9.5
3rd -1.5
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Back in town ! Seems, we need a little bit more buying power !
Long 7556.50...7622.50 first target
Long 3
-4
Re-entry Long 3 off LTL
scaled out 2 lots +9
3rd -1
Long 3, if you hold, so do I
C'MON!!!
-2.5
OK, u had ur stops, Long 3 ImO pattern still bullish short term
-2.5
Long 3
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Bank of England Minutes revealed two members supporting rate cut ! Very good !
I bet you anything those doves are the only 2 guys in the entire council that aren't "Sir" or "Lord" or "Count" or "Duke" or whatever gay titles the British have!
Quote from ASusilovic:
Bank of England Minutes revealed two members supporting rate cut ! Very good !
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3
-4
Re-entry Long 3 off LTL
scaled out 2 lots +9
3rd -1
Long 3, if you hold, so do I
C'MON!!!
-2.5
OK, u had ur stops, Long 3 ImO pattern still bullish short term
-2.5
Long 3
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from makloda:
I bet you anything those doves are the only 2 guys in the entire council that aren't "Sir" or "Lord" or "Count" or "Duke" or whatever gay titles the British have!
Our friendly neighbourhood IB Goldman Sachs cutting Credit Suisse to sell from neutral and Societe Generale....
Hello DAX 7500
hi
am long Fdax 7757 and 7672 hedged by fdax March 08
closing my short fdax 08 and adding here long 7507
Long 2 units 7515,5
Will throw half at 7550
1 more unit awaiting at 7500
Quote from younouss:
hi
am long Fdax 7757 and 7672 hedged by fdax March 08
closing my short fdax 08 and adding here long 7507
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Hey Y, why do you hold 7757 and 7672 if you can close them now and buy again once/IF price gets back to those levels?
Also, what's the edge in the straight short/long trade? Isn't it net neutral?
ImO 60 minute chart is now way too bearish and created higher vola for me to participate, GL to all in positions.
Quote from JSSPMK:
Hey Y, why do you hold 7757 and 7672 if you can close them now and buy again once/IF price gets back to those levels?
Also, what's the edge in the straight short/long trade? Isn't it net neutral?
ImO 60 minute chart is now way too bearish and created higher vola for me to participate, GL to all in positions.
Quote from ASusilovic:
JSSPMK, what do you think about this piece of news ? =>
Two unencrypted disks with the records of 7.2 million families claiming child-benefit payments went missing when they were sent from the Revenue and Customs department, which is overseen by the Treasury, to the National Audit Office. It's the biggest loss of personal data in British history.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Same as what I think of WTC7 building going down same day (9/11) as WTC 1 & 2, when no airplane has hit it, but what was inside WTC 7, that is the question.
I don't believe that data simply can be lost at that level, it can be destroyed purposefully or stolen. Both cases create benefit to somebody. I call this BS.
There is an old joke that basically goes that Hitler sitting in hell tells his military staff that if Nazi Germany had a newspaper like Soviet "Pravda" (means Truth in English), then nobody would know that Germany lost WWII.
Seriously guys/gals, what do you reckon on that monthly chart that I posted yesterday? It looks very toppy to me, especially a number of variables seems to line up:
1. Price is high re-tested previous all time highs (buy Lo/Sell Hi);
2. Histogram has put in 3 lowered peaks and now is at centreline (check out histogram on monthly charts going back 20 years to see potential outcome when this happens);
3. DAX has already registered 2 failure swings;
4. We have higher vola in other indexes, which does suggest an end (even if intermediate) of a cycle;
5. Subprime problems can not simply be absorbed by financials, losses have to be reflected in markets, somehow;
6. Divergence on monthly chart;
7. Oil about to go through $100 (speculative call but makes sense to me), look at gold, platinum and of course silver, money has been pouring in there which suggests that stock markets are about to take a turn;
8. Price is forming an apex on same monthly chart and histogram suggests (to me) that price most likely to breakdown, rather than breakout to upside.
9. Almost forgotten, Hang Seng put in a HUGE shtick in just months and also has a divergence on daily chart (I think it is daily), if/when China drops we all drop, same for US markets as we all know.
10. Dow30 and S&P both have divergence on weekly charts (a triple one also)
I am sure there are other reasons, but I guess I managed to scratch the surface a bit.
Edit - of course a sudden shtick to upside can't be excluded, as it so many times happens prior to actual market turn, intraday and longer term.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
JSSPMK, read this headline :
10-yr Treasury yields fall below 4%, first time in two years
Question :
Is this an alternative for a mutual fund manager to invest into ? YES / NO ?
Or maybe it´s stock picking time ?
Quote from syrre:
Long 2 units 7515,5
Will throw half at 7550
1 more unit awaiting at 7500
Seems FDAX well bid 7530 - 7540...
Stopped fesx @4200
Quote from ASusilovic:
"Pravda" = propaganda gazette of the CCCP ( Soyuz Sovetskikh Sotsialisticheskikh Respublik ) !! LOL! Totally forgot about "Pravda"!
Long 3
scaled out 2 lots +9
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from ASusilovic:
JSSPMK, read this headline :
10-yr Treasury yields fall below 4%, first time in two years
Question :
Is this an alternative for a mutual fund manager to invest into ? YES / NO ?
Or maybe it´s stock picking time ?
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
+20 on 3rd
short 3
scaled out 2 +7.5
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
stopped out at b/e on 3rd
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from syrre:
1 unit out 7549
Quote from syrre:
Last unit out 7600
Quote from younouss:
hi
am long Fdax 7757 and 7672 hedged by fdax March 08
closing my short fdax 08 and adding here long 7507
I don't like this sudden move. I'm closing all my long here @ 7617
Closed part of my long FDAX 7622.00...and buying some more PUTS....
For some strange reason I dont feel safe in putting on long positions >7600 anymore.
I do not know why, maybe it has been trading too much in the 7500 range lately. Hmm...
same for me, it makes me lose some points as I don't dare to hold long positions until they finally move
7702...flat on second part of my FDAX longs and buying some moe ATM Puts...
short fdax small position @ 7700
closed half of the position. Stop 7698 for the rest.
covered the rest of my position @ 7633
Nice.
I sold 0,5 unit @ 90,50 and closed 0,25 unit 60 and 0,25 unit 40
Quote from syrre:
Nice.
I sold 0,5 unit @ 90,50 and closed 0,25 unit 60 and 0,25 unit 40
Closing my ATM Puts for a decent profit...
Buying some ATM calls ....
Bought some FDAX into the close.
me too at 9:59:55 seconds !
Yeah, but to describe the day in one single picture / metaphor :
ARMAGEDDON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quote from JSSPMK:
Seriously guys/gals, what do you reckon on that monthly chart that I posted yesterday? It looks very toppy to me, especially a number of variables seems to line up:
1. Price is high re-tested previous all time highs (buy Lo/Sell Hi);
2. Histogram has put in 3 lowered peaks and now is at centreline (check out histogram on monthly charts going back 20 years to see potential outcome when this happens);
3. DAX has already registered 2 failure swings;
4. We have higher vola in other indexes, which does suggest an end (even if intermediate) of a cycle;
5. Subprime problems can not simply be absorbed by financials, losses have to be reflected in markets, somehow;
6. Divergence on monthly chart;
7. Oil about to go through $100 (speculative call but makes sense to me), look at gold, platinum and of course silver, money has been pouring in there which suggests that stock markets are about to take a turn;
8. Price is forming an apex on same monthly chart and histogram suggests (to me) that price most likely to breakdown, rather than breakout to upside.
9. Almost forgotten, Hang Seng put in a HUGE shtick in just months and also has a divergence on daily chart (I think it is daily), if/when China drops we all drop, same for US markets as we all know.
10. Dow30 and S&P both have divergence on weekly charts (a triple one also)
I am sure there are other reasons, but I guess I managed to scratch the surface a bit.
Edit - of course a sudden shtick to upside can't be excluded, as it so many times happens prior to actual market turn, intraday and longer term.
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ASusilovic, have you been lurking around Flippers website?
BTW: You want 10 FDAX contracts? Fek I tho I was flat, but then found a rest of 10 long after close
ASusilovic, what's your target for your long positions ?
Quote from syrre:
ASusilovic, have you been lurking around Flippers website?
BTW: You want 10 FDAX contracts? Fek I tho I was flat, but then found a rest of 10 long after close
Quote from RedDuke:
What is the address of flipper's website?
Quote from syrre:
ASusilovic, have you been lurking around Flippers website?
BTW: You want 10 FDAX contracts? Fek I tho I was flat, but then found a rest of 10 long after close
Quote from ml77:
ASusilovic, what's your target for your long positions ?
We got a nice move on US futures and in Japan.
I would like to hold this long for a few days but we have some sneaky moves on a regular basis now.
I am targeting a very special "friend" of mine, lately :
I like your pictures!
Do you have a stop ?
Quote from ml77:
I like your pictures!
Do you have a stop ?
Short 3 off 5 min chart
Scaled out 2 +9.5
__________________
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Phew! Am in about even territory now, so looking to throw them soon...
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3 off 5 min chart
Scaled out 2 +9.5
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from ASusilovic:
www.rotterinvest.com he´s in fact almost my neighbour over here in Zug...
Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd b/e
Short 3
-3
short 3
c'mon pennant
Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd b/e
Short 3
-3
short 3
c'mon pennant
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
scaled out 2 +10
The way I use MACD I would not necessarily be bullish looking on 60 today, also I was just trading pennant constipation, I mean congestion zone
Such a relief, once it pops
Holding last turd till b/e, oops, I meant lot.
Quote from younouss:
nice pic
__________________
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3rd +10
Long 3
-2.5 Short 3
Scaled out 2 +7
C'MON MONTHLY DIVERGENCE! Let The Panic Set In!
Guys, lock your daughters
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
scaled out 2 +10
The way I use MACD I would not necessarily be bullish looking on 60 today, also I was just trading pennant constipation, I mean congestion zone
Such a relief, once it pops
Holding last turd till b/e, oops, I meant lot.
long 7539,50
Trailing stop triggered for one part of my longs at 7552.00...
Quote from younouss:
long 7539,50
Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd +10
Long 3
-2.5 Short 3
Scaled out 2 +7
C'MON MONTHLY DIVERGENCE! Let The Panic Set In!
Guys, lock your daughters
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Turd lot +63.5
Quote from JSSPMK:
Turd lot +63.5
TY! But as you know I anticipate bat out of hell price action as we retrace DOOOOWWWNNN, monthly looks scary and THEY c IT 2, run for the hills!!!
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
TY! But as you know I anticipate bat out of hell price action as we retrace DOOOOWWWNNN, monthly looks scary and THEY c IT 2, run for the hills!!!
Do you know whether DAX LEAPS are available and whether they can be executed before expiry?
__________________
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Long 3
Gosh, scaled out 2 +10.5
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3rd +22.5
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Do you know whether DAX LEAPS are available and whether they can be executed before expiry?
By the way, some very *encouraging* news from our "friendly neighbourhood" investmentbank Goldman Sachs :
Goldman ups U.S. '08 recession probability to 43% from 30%
Goldman Sachs economists on Tuesday said they now expect the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee to cut interest rates to 3% by mid-2008, down from its earlier forecast of 4%. "The main reason is that the worsening housing downturn has pushed the risk of a U.S. recession in 2008 to 40%-45%, from around 30% previously.
New long entry 7500.
Target 7545-7555 area.
This went too fast, 1 unit out allready 7538
Stop 2nd unit moved up to 7520
Fek throw last at 7534.
Quote from JSSPMK:
Do you know whether DAX LEAPS are available and whether they can be executed before expiry?
36 points is still good for 2 units but experiencing weaker nerves last days
Damn!
How typical, just after exit...
Quote from asap:
they are available, they trade with quite thin b/a spread and they are european options, that is, they cant be exercised prior to expiry. checkout www.eurexchange.com for further info.
Quote from ASusilovic:
As a sidenote :
Funny enough, product development manager of EUREX couldn´t tell me anything about DAX LEAPS....Ha, ha, ha....
Quote from younouss:
funny for the leader of derivative leader in Europe...
You have to enjoy the VOLA today....mjam mjam....
Quote from ASusilovic:
Imagine,
we have a "relationship manager" over there ! Ha, ha, ha....
Quote from ASusilovic:
As a sidenote :
Funny enough, product development manager of EUREX couldn´t tell me anything about DAX LEAPS....Ha, ha, ha....
Thanks for info, but if they are European I'll have to consider doing it via US leaps.
__________________
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I sold at 7550, could have made more...(but we also have chances to buy lower again).
short 7584
Short from 10 min ago off 1 minute chart, scaled out 2 lots +12.5
My favourite pattern that was on 1 minute chart, triple failure swing + divergence
__________________
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Quote from younouss:
short 7584
Nice trade so far, what made you enter at that time? Your entry ImO coincided with 1 minute's histogram centreline kiss.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Nice trade so far, what made you enter at that time? Your entry ImO coincided with 1 minute's histogram centreline kiss.
adding 7575
Ahh, I had some data loss around that time, so can't see it.
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
My favourite pattern that was on 1 minute chart, triple failure swing + divergence
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Ahh, I had some data loss around that time, so can't see it.
Hi JSSPMK,
In my last PM, I told you about an automatic system based on MACD, I know you use this indicator a lot so do you think that there is potential for a system to be profitable using only this indicator ?
Thanks
Have a good day all dax traders !
Quote from ml77:
Hi JSSPMK,
In my last PM, I told you about an automatic system based on MACD, I know you use this indicator a lot so do you think that there is potential for a system to be profitable using only this indicator ?
Thanks
Have a good day all dax traders !
__________________
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Out 3rd lot +7
long 3
scaled out 2 +9
3 min chart could initiate upside off 4 hour chart
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flat fdax
Quote from younouss:
flat fdax
I have a feeling price will keep going up today, not trailing last turd just yet, stop still at entry.
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
YEP! dax is bullish.. so let's buy!
Me, the only bull over here ? I feel so lonely....
I have 1 lot long right now
btw AS I thought you were bearish, have you sold your puts?
__________________
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Quote from younouss:
YEP! dax is bullish.. so let's buy!
Quote from JSSPMK:
I have 1 lot long right now
btw AS I thought you were bearish, have you sold your puts?
Quote from younouss:
long full position!
That´s so typical for my trading :
I missed my first FDAX exit target today ( 7622.00 ) by half a point....I hate this to happen although I am more then a decade with this contract, I hate this to happen !
Quote from ASusilovic:
That�s so typical for my trading :
I missed my first FDAX exit target today ( 7622.00 ) by half a point....I hate this to happen although I am more then a decade with this contract, I hate this to happen !
O.K. Closed second part of my longs 7643.00....and now waiting for the U.S. data releases....
short 7648
Quote from younouss:
short 7648
We might have hit some stops in ES around 1432.50...sudden spike in volume suggesting...
03. Kohn: Right policy seems clearer to commentators than to Fed
8:00 AM ET, Nov 28, 2007 - 8 minutes ago
04. Kohn: Can't hold economy hostage to teach speculators lesson
8:00 AM ET, Nov 28, 2007 - 8 minutes ago
05. Kohn: Fed discount rate moves worked, if only for a time
8:00 AM ET, Nov 28, 2007 - 8 minutes ago
06. Kohn: Fed can address bank concern over upward rate pressure
8:00 AM ET, Nov 28, 2007 - 8 minutes ago
07. Kohn: New market turmoil reversed gains made last 2 months
8:00 AM ET, Nov 28, 2007 - 8 minutes ago
08. Kohn: Renewed market turmoil could broadly restrict credit
8:00 AM ET, Nov 28, 2007 - 8 minutes ago
09. Fed's Kohn: Rate policy must be 'nimble' given uncertainties
8:00 AM ET, Nov 28, 2007 - 8 minutes ago
Little short squeeze going on, but I am closing my FDAX...flat !
Quote from younouss:
will add around 7670
Short FDAX 7679...
short 7699
stop hit
Quote from ASusilovic:
stop hit
I didn´want to believe my own analysis...I had 7725 as possible target for today´s action and now I am angry for the second time today !
Short 7743.00....
Quote from JSSPMK:
Out 3rd lot +7
long 3
scaled out 2 +9
3 min chart could initiate upside off 4 hour chart
__________________
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Quote from ASusilovic:
Part of it is my hedge, other part "speculative" position...but you´re right, I am loaded with puts at different strike levels...
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Sold 3rd lot +161 (greed control)
Nice one, congrats!
Quote from JSSPMK:
Sold 3rd lot +161 (greed control)
TY both! But it was more a matter of good fortune, than skill
__________________
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Adding some shorts 7800.00...I am impressed....
Quote from JSSPMK:
Sold 3rd lot +161 (greed control)
WOW!
short 1 unit 7807,5
1 more unit ready for possible overnight stay
After all the short covering yesterday, do you guys expect we will we see another final leg down in the next few weeks? i think we'll see a nice counter move to this head fake. I'll be looking to get short again on Friday or possibly Monday.
Runningbear
Subprime Near a Bottom?
Interesting that Markit's ABX index of the value of BBB-rated subprime has slowed its descent in recent week. Are we near a bottom? Unless you think it's all going to zero, at 20-ish cents on the dollar you have to imagine it's close.
Comments
2. Comment by Josh Stern -- November 27, 2007 @ 4:16 PM
I'm not a believe in the ABX indices as an efficient predictor of the broader market. Notice that the corresponding AAA tranches of the same aggregated portfolio you graph above have continued to go down. That can't fit with the idea that both indices are an efficient predictor of loss because the way the subordination works, the BBB tranche loses everything before the AAA tranche experiences its first dollar of loss.
My view is that the AAA tranche is probably way too low and relative to its underlying fundamentals/subordination, and I suspect the price action is being driven by people who need to sell in order to control risk or improve capital ratios; the BBB tranche is really tough to put a value on because it is an aggregate of a bunch of bets that don't pay off unless loss is over percent X1 but lose everything if loss is over percent X2.
4. Comment by AccruedInterest -- November 28, 2007 @ 11:14 AM
Actually the BBB tranche can reach "interest only" prices and stay there, whereas the AAA can keep falling due to principal impairment. In other words, at some price, the BBB tranche reflects receipt of no principal, but some amount of interest. At the same time, more senior tranche prices may reflect some amount of principal. As losses mount, senior tranche prices can therefore fall while junior tranches are unchanged.
That's what burned Morgan Stanley, BTW.
Long 3
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3
Broader picture (chart wise) remains bearish, but shorter term charts are now bullish. For instance 4 hour chart, we had a dip dip dip and up, that normally lasts a few days. Daily chart on most major indexe's histogram is at centreline and crossed it in some cases, that is also bullish. As I am on much shorter time frames, I have to chose a time frame which is more likely to provide quicker benefit, well, you know all this anyway.
Scaled out 2 lots +9
Also 2 things to consider for today, ImO:
1. I don't see yesterday's p/a as just short covering, to me that was mainly gradual buying, slow grind;
2. Today's daily pivotal coincides with 38.2% retrace from yesterday's range, although S2 is normally a much better place to buy intraday, but I doubt very much we would get to S2 today.
3. S2 coincides with double bottom zone, but that would have to be one huge fake move to be bought.
+1 on 3rd
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Pivot is around 7700 (monday's high) which is a nice point of entry for a long...
On the other hand we reached a resistance area 7800 which is 100 MA on day chart and 200 MA 180min chart, next R is 7866. So obviously technical trader will short here.
So short here, cover and reverse 7700 and if it happens, just call me Guru please
Quote from younouss:
Pivot is around 7700 (monday's high) which is a nice point of entry for a long...
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Long 3
c'mon 2 min histo
triple divergence now on 1
K'MON!!!
2 min looking wicked!
scaled out 2 +10.5
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It should catch a bid here. Me thinks.
Patience.
Told ya so. I'd take some off here 7778-80.
Quote from [Proximo]:
It should catch a bid here. Me thinks.
Patience.
Quote from [Proximo]:
It should catch a bid here. Me thinks.
Patience.
__________________
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Higher degree + Lower degree fib formation + Divergence + ES @ support + ML (Middle Line turning up).
Confirmation "W" pattern.
TY! Now I see an inversed H&S on 1 minute, ImO re-test highs and away (so I hope basically )
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Buen, uno chartos por favor amigo, comprende?
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TY!
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Quote from JSSPMK:
I got 7719, correct?
Long 3 off 1 min, need histo to turn up
-3
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3
c'mon 2 min histo
triple divergence now on 1
K'MON!!!
2 min looking wicked!
scaled out 2 +10.5
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Another +10 on scale out off 1 min's histo + DBollocks Ha!
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funny you are making money with long's and am shorting every high in my 5 min chart!
Quote from younouss:
funny you are making money with long's and am shorting every high in my 5 min chart!
3rd +0.5__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
I woulda done a short if I saw something that I would have liked, can't get a break so far on any of the longs.
All Shook Up O-o-O again
Long 3
-4 bastards
I will wait for pivot now, unless something exquisite comes up
Quote from [Proximo]:
Higher degree + Lower degree fib formation + Divergence + ES @ support + ML (Middle Line turning up).
Confirmation "W" pattern.
Quote from younouss:
On the other hand we reached a resistance area 7800 which is 100 MA on day chart and 200 MA 180min chart, next R is 7866. So obviously technical trader will short here.
So short here, cover and reverse 7700 and if it happens, just call me Guru please
Long 3 off 2 min
b/e bastards
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Long 3 K'MON pick it up!
sharp Angle MACD, this is it, give me more upside
centreline cross now K'MON! PLEASE
Scale out 2 +9.5
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3rd -2
Long 3 off 1 min
scaled out 1 +6.5
another 1 +14
10 min chart setting up for upside ImO, looks like a triple divergence (minor one)
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Closed some FDAX 7758.50...They do not want to touch DAILY SMA 7720.50...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Closed some FDAX 7758.50...They do not want to touch DAILY SMA 7720.50...
From my observation, whenever 4 hour chart turns bullish it takes a few days for it to play out, quite frustrating when shorting patterns and ratio is totally dismantled. Been there, done that, still do it
Looks like we are getting a rounded bottom p/a=upside to come (crawling back in cave)
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.
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Quote from younouss:
be patient young Padawan said Master Yoda
Quote from ASusilovic:
So who is Darth Sidious ( aka "The Darkness" ) nowadays in trading terms ?
your friends: GS, MS, Citi, BA, IKB, etc...
Quote from younouss:
your friends: GS, MS, Citi, BA, IKB, etc...
Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd -2
Long 3 off 1 min
scaled out 1 +6.5
another 1 +14
10 min chart setting up for upside ImO, looks like a triple divergence (minor one)
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Guys, for those trading of 1 min chart, try to put up 144 or 233 constant volume bar chart. I used to trade off 1 min, but volume bars represent momentum much better and drmatically reduce noise.
Quote from JSSPMK:
MACD @ centreline
3rd +20.5 potential failure swing
hum it seems we are going to visit 7840 tonite?
short 7795.00....
7824....
7824-7468 = 356
8130.50 -7468 = 662.50
So we hit 50 % FIBO within 3 days...always funny to observe how markets forget about lurking subprime losses and credit crunch and the other hysteria surrounding it....
Long 3
Scaled out 2 +14.5
3rd +27 don't like the shtick, take money and run
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1 lot short off 1 min
-5 I knew it!
Short 1, almost same level
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mmmh our "friends" mood has changed again. It's buy buy buy now!
next R is 7870
I am really impressed ! Maybe I am in a wrong movie !
Quote from ASusilovic:
I am really impressed ! Maybe I am in a wrong movie !
They will not be able to sustain rally IF & WHEN monthly histogram actually closes either @ or preferably below its centreline. At the moment from a technical point funds are acting upon lower time frame charts which show bullish reversal signs.
Trouble with waiting upon monthly histogram to do the above is that price would most likely plummet, one has to be aware of this near the time to catch that 'tsunami' type sell-off, pure human behaviour.
Seeing a failure swing here just below R2, retracement? I hope so But histogram on 1 min starting to look bullish, so I am not convinced, still short 1 lot.
Covered -1, I don't like going against such a histo pattern
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Quote from JSSPMK:
They will not be able to sustain rally IF & WHEN monthly histogram actually closes either @ or preferably below its centreline. At the moment from a technical point funds are acting upon lower time frame charts which show bullish reversal signs.
Trouble with waiting upon monthly histogram to do the above is that price would most likely plummet, one has to be aware of this near the time to catch that 'tsunami' type sell-off, pure human behaviour.
Seeing a failure swing here just below R2, retracement? I hope so
Covered -1, I don't like going against such a histo pattern
Fucking media, I mostly laugh when I read the tabloids.
Anyways, Short 3
Scaled out 2 +7.5
3rd +10.5 and Long 3
Scaled out 2 +12.5
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+24.5 on 3rd doing a runner with someone else's money
(+125 net) 41+ per lot, histo was kicking arse 2day, that 4 hour chart just keeps on climbing.
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Short 3 divergence triple on 1 min
-3
If ET starts offering brokerage services think twice guys, their servers can't handle real-time posting
Short 3
Scaled out 2 +9 classic divergence on 1 min 7900 average retrace zone
3rd -0.5
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Fucking media, I mostly laugh when I read the tabloids.
Faked out....bastards
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Absoletely unsatisfying week ! I underestimated the bulls run into 7920 as I expected a more unifmormly continous move back upward, but not the "brutal" way
...450 FDAX points in 4 days...WOW !..especially in the macroeconmic environment we´re in...even more funny is that my first and second upward targets hve been hit 7623, 7721 and almost the third one, too : 7925.50...
We may even touch 8006 next week ! LMAO !
Well, I keep my hedge working, even my speculative puts...
Regarding ES, I think it has been a good idea to buy these 1550 calls couple of days ago, because we might hit this level in the next three trading sessions, or...? ;=)
short 3
we are hi, but it looks like we might be going higher, so long 3 (+1 on short). off 2 & 3 min
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+1 don't know what's happening
Short 3 off 5 min chart
-3
Short 3 expecting a breakdown
-3.5
Waiting on 4 hour bar to close now
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Long 3, resolution near
coast to coast so far
-3.5 short 3
-2.5 long 3
-2.5 short 3
-3 long 3
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-2 short 3
Scaled out 2 +21
3 minute chart got prepped in the end, was tough to work off 1-3 min charts, mixed signals.
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Bought 1 unit 7855
0,5 unit out 7868
Last out 7878
Quote from JSSPMK:
-2 short 3
Scaled out 2 +21
3 minute chart got prepped in the end, was tough to work off 1-3 min charts, mixed signals.
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I am waiting for 7817.00 to be hit...
short 3 divergence on 1 min triple
faking bastards
breaking TL
K'MON let's slide!
scaled out 2 +8
+0.5 on 3rd
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cheeky buy on the open... cant see it having a lot of joy tho...
__________________
------------------------
j
I thought I would post what ImO/ImE is a valuable asset if using MACD as a navigational tool for scalping 1 minute chart (or swinging for that matter but on a longer term chart).
It's quite simple really (I like KISS, actually I like fucking too childish joke, I know), I look mainly for 2 things to happen, either a divergence which I have used today on 1 minute chart or a sharp angle MACD reversal line, just like on attached image, which shows a bullish pattern obviously (below centreline performing sharp down and a brisk upwards move, creating a sharp angle). I would ONLY use this pattern on 1 minute chart IF/WHEN 2 parts of algo are present:
1. Price has to retrace from highs ie not to buy absolute Highs, some would refer to this as a "discount" being offered;
2. MACD signal has to be below centreline prior to sharp angle formation for LONGS and above centreline prior to sharp angle formation for SHORTS.
Anyway, whatever the set-up appropriate money management is key.
Kenguru out and crawling back in cave
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This was a classic intraday Pivotal challenge (which I managed to miss, so congrats on that one) with lower peaks on 2 min chart and BOOOM!!!
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blooming TT... stops went off and the whole thing froze....
__________________
------------------------
j
X_Trader?
ImO S2 provides better support opposed to S1, so 7805 expected over here.
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yeh be careful... there is hardly any vol n there are freezes.
dax 7845 area for a agressive sell???
__________________
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j
I am looking for a level to enter long for a few weeks if they want to push the markets higher for the end of the year.
However, as the dax was pretty strong these days, it may be hard to get a discount .
Quote from brentfutures:
yeh be careful... there is hardly any vol n there are freezes.
dax 7845 area for a agressive sell???
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It froze too on Strategy Runner, I got a few longs filled that I sold immediately.
Quote from ml77:
I am looking for a level to enter long for a few weeks if they want to push the markets higher for the end of the year.
However, as the dax was pretty strong these days, it may be hard to get a discount
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Quote from JSSPMK:
it's interesting that freezing happened when there was a bearish set-up, I am a total conspiracy theorist, can't help but think that these events take place purposefully, rather than accidentally.
get in there u bitch dax... sold the 7845.5 and 7843's...now lets see where this shit goes...
__________________
------------------------
j
Quote from brentfutures:
get in there u bitch dax... sold the 7845.5 and 7843's...now lets see where this shit goes...
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Nice one indeed JSSPMK but will we (US, Europe) follow the Chinese ?!
So it seems you are not as optimistic as I am. This rally last week made me bullish for the end of the year but maybe I am wrong.
sorry if you boys hold onto positions, im a tick whore..well not whoring that much but will get pretty quickly if it goes my way... n look to get back in...
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j
Quote from ml77:
Nice one indeed JSSPMK but will we (US, Europe) follow the Chinese ?!
So it seems you are not as optimistic as I am. This rally last week made me bullish for the end of the year but maybe I am wrong.
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why is my shitty support line holding...look at the chart i posted earlier... n i know im a useless tech analyst...
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j
Quote from brentfutures:
why is my shitty support line holding...look at the chart i posted earlier... n i know im a useless tech analyst...
__________________
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Short 3, looking for flag top
stopped out -3
short 3
-2.5
short 3
3rd failure swing? 3rd time lucky for me?
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Target of the W was about 58 (44+(44-30)).
I have been more bearish recently but the strenght of the rebound really surprised me. Nevertheless, the bounces in bear markets are very strong (short covering + long entry).
Brentfutures, I am kind of a scalper too usually, I rarely hold for a long time(generally when I hold it's because I am losing bad habit...).
I just thought that we might hit at least 8000 soon.
rejecting the VWAP line on the stoxx... short term downward momentum..maybe not much but towards 7840 line...
__________________
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j
Quote from ml77:
Nice one indeed JSSPMK but will we (US, Europe) follow the Chinese ?!
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3, looking for flag top
stopped out -3
short 3
-2.5
short 3
3rd failure swing? 3rd time lucky for me?
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Scaled out 2 lots +10
3rd +17 near 61.8 taking money and running
Possible dogs bollocks in the making, histo confirming p/a
Long 3 off 1-2 min
Pivot, K'mon!
Stop faking!
+3.5 no steam
2 &3 still look bullish to challenge pivotal
Long 1
Quote from ASusilovic:
JSSPMK,
you´re so passionate about FDAX trading. Always a pleasure. I am almost able to "hear" your thoughts...
BTW, Banks to UK corporates: Stop borrowing - now!
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/200...-borrowing-now/
__________________
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Long 3 off 1 histo + pennant
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Quote from ASusilovic:
I am waiting for 7817.00 to be hit...
Long 7813.00 and buying more stuff...
Sold part of FDAX longs 7843.00...maybe we will test 7872.00 again today ...
Closed some more FDAX longs 7872.00
Nice AS!
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Short 3
Oddly enough it's not retracing
They could squeeze, then 3rd lower histo peak and down
Scaredy cat me, scale out 2 +3
3rd b/e
BF, is that your mate's work?
Short 3
Typical! Nice! Chart coming up
Scaled out 2 +9
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3rd +1.5
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
i like this chart very much (in a borat vioce)
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j
volumes are pretty thin even for this time of day.
no one is in trading size. a lot is being pulled.
currently, dax 7190 contracts, stoxx 44300 contracts...not good.
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j
Quote from brentfutures:
volumes are pretty thin even for this time of day.
no one is in trading size. a lot is being pulled.
currently, dax 7190 contracts, stoxx 44300 contracts...not good.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
NFP???
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j
ADP, sorry
Short 3, possible 3rd lower histo peak on 2 now
-3
Short 3
Scaled out 2 +4.5
3rd b/e
this is shit, such small reward on offer
Short 2
divergence on 2 complete, I suppose now they would start squeezing people like me, considering thin volume that wouldn't be that hard of a task
__________________
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Short 7882.00, tight stop...
short 89's in stoxx... dax is squeezing... palsm are sweaty
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j
fingers crossed for 3rd failure swing, hope some more shorts would step up then
YYYYYYYEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!!!! K'MON!
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ready to short at 89 on dax, they always like to squeeze a little more (stops) before going down.
the dax is more stubborn lately, I don't like that!
problem is I didn't find better than the dax yet.
Northern Rock to be nationalized?
The Daily Telegraph reports that the U.K. government has drafted a bill to nationalize the mortgage bank if it can't be sold.
Ex-Amaranth Traders Lose 15% at Moore Capital's Canada Unit
thats not even funny.. citi group are next, then merril...the government are mad..
anyway to more pressing matters... i can not help think we have seen the high for this morning session... what are you thoughts...???
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j
get down u dirt bag..
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j
yeah I won't short the dax at 89. going to bed (hard to trade the dax from Canada)!
Quote from brentfutures:
thats not even funny.. citi group are next, then merril...the government are mad..
anyway to more pressing matters... i can not help think we have seen the high for this morning session... what are you thoughts...???
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its poo... contemplating short again... or maybe turn screens off and go home..
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j
Quote from brentfutures:
its poo... contemplating short again... or maybe turn screens off and go home..
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
mmm if we all thinking 7900 either it smashes through and we all get rogered..or it dicks around here for a while, gets every long then melts... i see it melting..nothing out there apart form2, 3 sessions of weakness... so do we counter that or do we continue in that frame of mind...
either way rate cut rhetoric is forever present so in theory these funds should be gearing for a nice rally...but when will it come, the million dollar question...
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j
hi am long 7876 TARGET 7960/70
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
thats what i have....
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j
JSSPMK u got yr 7900 kiss! now what?
Quote from younouss:
JSSPMK u got yr 7900 kiss! now what?
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MBA Mortgage 22.5
and no one gives a shit
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j
Private-sector jobs up 189,000 in November, ADP says
Quote from younouss:
hi am long 7876 TARGET 7960/70
flat fdax
Short 3
-3.5
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Not bad ! I thought we will need couple of weeks to revisit 8000.00 again....! Hope, ADP numbers are reliable this time !
Bond insurers fall; MBIA down on Moody's warning
WOW ! 8000.00...eight trading days....Seems a little bit overbought...still got my puts in place.....if we have some sophisticated range players being around we may very well retrace again to 7500.00 level...we´ll see...I expect some consolidation, maybe some more upward room ´till 8039.00....
yeh its a bit quiet so it can be pushed around by semi-large players... when paper comes in we can either see it really taking off or gettin cracked back down...its in bullshit range at the minute...but that my humble opinion...
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j
Short 3
-3
Seeing potential weakness on 2 minute chart, looking forward to re-shorting, smacking the TL towards support 7975 and doing some retracing, we did have a good run, so we are Hi enough ImO. 15 min chart looks a tad extended to me, MACD bending towards centreline.
On the other hand YM will probably be pushed towards its 50 daily ma which coincides with bearish TL on daily chart, so, to hell with so, I am short term trader LOL.
Short 3
-3.5
Pattern gone, will be looking for other opportunities, staying positive!
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Short 3
Scaled out 2 +5
3rd -0.5
Short 3
Scaled out 1 +4 not much on offer so far
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Short 8010
Not giving it much time, looking for a push down pretty soon, or I'll be out quick.
Edit:
Add a little 8020.
Edit2:
Added pos cover 8006,5
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3
Scaled out 2 +5
3rd -0.5
Short 3
Scaled out 1 +4 not much on offer so far
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Quote from JSSPMK:
2 lots -1
Lower IR over in the UK, confirms that there are serious concerns out there, they wouldn't lower it otherwise, confirms my monthly outlooks.
1 min MACD still not adhering to upside, Short 3
Scaled out 2 +10.5
Quote from ASusilovic:
I thought Mervyn King is way too "aristocratic" for such a move...Ha, ha,ha...
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Cover short 7992, awaiting departure.
FED expected to freeze IR for 5 years
EUR @ 4%
Long 3
-2.5
Long 3
-3
Short 3
scaled out 1 +4
2 b/e
Long 1
+11
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long 7975
Short 1
+5
Reverse Long 1
-3.5
Long 3 divergence setting up
scale out 2 +9
3rd -1 out for now failure swing on 1
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Morgan Stanley, Goldman reportedly cut to neutral at Merrill
Wells Fargo reportedly cut to sell at Merrill Lynch
Quote from ASusilovic:
Morgan Stanley, Goldman reportedly cut to neutral at Merrill
Wells Fargo reportedly cut to sell at Merrill Lynch
Quote from younouss:
Funny how banks cut themselves... sounds ridiculous
Here is another take on this, Goldman's CEO screwed Merrill's Mrs, she told her Mr that she preferred Goldman's cock to his and Mr Merrill got so pissed that he told his analysts to downgrade the bastards over at Goldman. Well, you never know LOL
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Here is another take on this, Goldman's CEO screwed Merrill's Mrs, she told her Mr that she preferred Goldman's cock to his and Mr Merrill got so pissed that he told his analysts to downgrade the bastards over at Goldman. Well, you never know LOL
Quote from JSSPMK:
Here is another take on this, Goldman's CEO screwed Merrill's Mrs, she told her Mr that she preferred Goldman's cock to his and Mr Merrill got so pissed that he told his analysts to downgrade the bastards over at Goldman. Well, you never know LOL
JSSPMK,
let me guess, you´re short from 8005-8015 level ???
Quote from JSSPMK:
Seeing potential weakness on 2 minute chart, looking forward to re-shorting, smacking the TL towards support 7975 and doing some retracing, we did have a good run, so we are Hi enough ImO. 15 min chart looks a tad extended to me, MACD bending towards centreline.
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Here is another take on this, Goldman's CEO screwed Merrill's Mrs, she told her Mr that she preferred Goldman's cock to his and Mr Merrill got so pissed that he told his analysts to downgrade the bastards over at Goldman. Well, you never know LOL
Long 1
+11
Short 1 @ TL
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Long 2 units
Edit:
Out 20 points
Quote from younouss:
long 7975
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 1
+11
Short 1 @ TL
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Looks like upside at the mo, sharp MACD in 1 min chart
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Capital One cut to sell from hold at Merrill Lynch
American Express cut to sell from hold at Merrill Lynch
Target cut to neutral at Banc of America Securities
Funny stuff before NFP...
Long 3
Scaled out 2 +8.5
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Never underestimate the dark side of the force!
Quote from ASusilovic:
Funny stuff before NFP...
Quote from makloda:
Never underestimate the dark side of the force!
DAX weekly histogram very bullish
FTSE weekly histogram very bullish
SPX weekly histogram about to catch up with European bullishness
Food for thought, though monthly does not look promising.
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UBS AG, Europe's largest bank by assets, said it will write down U.S. subprime investments by $10 billion and raise 13 billion francs ($11.5 billion) by selling stakes to investors in Singapore and the Middle East.
Short 3
-3.5
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Short 7994.00...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Short 7994.00...
Short 1
2 added
-4
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 1
2 added
-4
Quote from ASusilovic:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...691#post1709691
Quote from ASusilovic:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...691#post1709691
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Long 3
-3
long 3
tough going so far, bloody hell
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Scaled out 2 lots + 10.5
5 min divergence playing out, cool, ES bounced off pivotal, nice when things line up. 5 min MACD centreline X, let's challenge HOD, PPPPPPPPPPlease
Holding 1 lot, although there is a classic divergence on 1 min now and below pivotal
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3rd +30 locking in prior to FOMC
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Long 3
Scaled out 2 +8
+6 3rd
3 min looks bullish, but 1 min looks edgy
ohhhhhh, I pulled out in time, JEEEsus
might reverse to upside very sharpish
Yanks followed us 1/4 point cut
Long ES off S2
Scaled out 2/3 position +2.75
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1/3 -1.5
Long S2 again on ES now
larger stop, smaller position
Counting on weekly chart's histogram bullishness to provide heck of a scoop up
Scaled out 2/3 +3.75
Inverse H&S in its infancy K'MON!!!
1/3's stop at LOD now
Still holding for now
Histo on 1 min ES now setting up for divergence, broken stop level, but holding, I can handle this loss, I can smell a divergence trigger coming up
Come on bulls, step up and claim a prize
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1/3 -5.5
Long ES off 2 min chart
bottom fishing
-2.5
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Short 3
-2
Short 3 near 50% retrace
divergence on 1 setting up
Scaled out 2 +10
hoping that this was a refuel/fake action to HOD, expecting centreline X on 1 min still, divergence still valid
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Technical double top now (today).
Spoke a bit soon, support hasn't become resistance at that point.
3rd -2
Short 3 near high channel
Scald out 2 +3.5
3rd b/e
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Short high channel
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Short high channel
04. Fed says first aution of term funds on Dec. 17
9:00 AM ET, Dec 12, 2007 - 1 minute ago
05. Fed will auction term funds to banks to boost liquidity
9:00 AM ET, Dec 12, 2007 - 1 minute ago
06. Fed, four other central banks announce lliquidity steps
Fed sets up forex swap lines with ECB and Swiss central bank
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short high channel
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Long off TL now
-2
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Long ES
-5 bloody shit
Long again off 1 min possible divergence
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2/3 +8
1/3 +12.75
We are the champions, my friend
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Short3
Scaled out 2 +9.5
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3rd +0.5
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If it establish over 8000 now I think the 7500 floor will be lifted to 8000
Maybe testing 7925.50 today...
U.S. Retail sales impressively robust....long FDAX 7962.00...
Quote from ASusilovic:
U.S. Retail sales impressively robust....long FDAX 7962.00...
Long 3
I think I heard on Radio today that Gordon Brown (God, I really don't like this guy) made a deal with 5 major banks to invest £50bn in the stock market, not certain whether £50bn each or total deal amount.
scaled out 2 +14
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3rd +41.5
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Long 3
scaled out 1 +4
scaled out 2nd +8.5
3rd +9
Short 3 off 1 min divergence
Scaled out 1 +5
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2 lots -2
Short 3 off pivotal
scaled out 1 +3.5
2nd +6
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3rd lot trailed +15
Long 1 off TL break
Expecting 3 higher dip in histo
Added 1 more lot same level after dip
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10.32am 4th higher dip registering, but definite lack of interest from buyers so far, hmm. Getting ready to bail on this one, as 3rd lower peak can take price quite a bit lower.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd lot trailed +15
Long 1 off TL break
Expecting 3 higher dip in histo
Added 1 more lot same level after dip
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Buy 7906.50....
Nice trade so far AS, we are just below 2 day declining TL. Will you scale out or stay all in?
Side note, Hang Seng daily chart needs encouragement to not sell off next week, so we could get a rally over 8000 today, but I would still scale out.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Taken profit on 1 lot, too much uncertainty +5.5 (typo)
Pathetic range
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short 3
Considering how Hang Seng closed we really should have a sell off, they have broken through daily TL & down 3.5%
Scaled out 2 +10
AS, I am praying for your puts, GL man! Hopefully we can afford lunch at Ramsey's after today's massacre LOL
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Quote from JSSPMK:
short 3
Considering how Hang Seng closed we really should have a sell off, they have broken through daily TL & down 3.5%
Scaled out 2 +10
AS, I am praying for your puts, GL man! Hopefully we can afford lunch at Ramsey's after today's massacre LOL
right!
Trailing stop at bearish TL, will consider reversing at the time as 2 min chart seems to be showing bullish pattern (about 50% there)
Covered 3rd +41.5 and Long 2 lots
-4.5
Long 3
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-3.5
Trying to put in inverse H&S on 1m
Long 3
-3 Motherf....
Long 3
Scaled out 2 +9.5
2 min macd pattern now getting to book perfect stage
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3rd +13.5 looks like bearish wedge on 1m
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Quote from JSSPMK:
looks like bearish wedge on 1m
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ImO price will break out to the upside out of pennant, chart coming up (2 min), also 5 min looking pretty bullish, so that should help power up this rocket for a more of a sustained range expansion.
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Long 1 unit 7840
ESI came in near 10, forecasted 27, let us see whether this will negate bullish pattern on short term charts.
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Short YM MARCH
Scaled out 2/3 +16
Signal was on 1 & 2 min charts: rising wedge paired with divergence in histogram, holding 1/3
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Short YM MARCH
Scaled out 2/3 +16
Signal was on 1 & 2 min charts: rising wedge paired with divergence in histogram, holding 1/3
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JSSPMK,
clear message early in the morning...take a look at 3 min chart...5000 lots enough for a 40 point move...simple ALGO trading...
Quote from ASusilovic:
JSSPMK,
clear message early in the morning...take a look at 3 min chart...5000 lots enough for a 40 point move...simple ALGO trading...
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Quote from JSSPMK:
yes, I saw it in a different way, 1-2 minute charts bullish histogram and helped by Asia rally back to TL.
Short 3 off 23.6% + R1 is very near
You know AS, I get this gut feeling that all these majors are just waiting for one of them to start selling their portfolios of whatever so the rest join in
-4
Quote from ASusilovic:
seems herd like mentality....
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2 min shows a risky buy here not completed pattern, so 3rd +17.5 & Long 3 off near to 50%
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Here is pattern
Scaled out 2 +9
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Indeed, ImO. It's like in retail business, somebody rolls out a new line of clothing and how long before other retailers start joining in on a trend, MP3 players, list is quite massive. GS have the biggest MC, so I would assume they lead and others follow. Any market is open to manipulative activity as long as you have 3 essentials: Enough money, Marketing & Information.
3rd lot trailed above TL +2
Short 3
Scaled out 2 +5.5
Considering good old formula of Buy rumours and Sell News, will we have a rally today towards GS's announcement?
Short 7921.00
little bit profit taking 7871.00...
Nice trade ASusilovic
further profit taking 7834.00...
moves faster then I am posting...further profit taking 7814.50...
reversing position long 7811.00....
WOW.....gap closing....!!!!!
closing some longs 7834.00...
closing some more 7846.00....
Quote from JSSPMK:
Here is pattern
Scaled out 2 +9
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Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd +85 trailed below TL
+131.5 Gross
Winners 3
Losers 1
Nice trade AS, wtg!
Congratz to both of you! Beautiful
TY!
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IFO numbers today, in 10 MIN.
long 7782...
Closed some longs 7812.00...
WTG AS!
Short 3 high channel
Scaled out 1 +5
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7817.00 might prove resistance....
other 2 b/e not seeing anything tradable right now
Long 3 b/o
needs to break bearish TL
Scaled out 2 +11
Possible take off to HOD ImO, 2 min MACD looking like there might be quite a bit of fuel in bull's rocket, bearish TL will have to provide a bounce off
Small bounce so far
Now we have a bounce, proper phat one
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closed some more 7835.50...
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Now that we have a bullish TL looking forward to it providing further support when/if price hits it
3rd lot trailed + 7.5 TL broken now
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Long 3
No AS, I have not. Why?
Not enough wood, scaled out 2 +8
3rd -1
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JSSPMK,
you ever worked with speed lines / Gann lines ?
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Nice long signal now, but not for my risk management
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Saw it, but couldn't catch that wave, always the next time, opportunities missed better than money lost
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closed some more 7871.50...
Short 3
Rising wedge BTW + divergence on 5
Scaled out 2 +10.5
Expecting yesterday's type sell-off
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Stop at b/e for now on 3rd, if we do breakdown it will be trailed to a bearish TL. right now 1 min shows bullish formation
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+34.5 TL break trailed stop
Up Gross 105
winners 4
losers 0
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Quote from JSSPMK:
+34.5 TL break trailed stop
Up Gross 105
winners 4
losers 0
I think, a short at 7894.50 is a good idea...
Long 3
-3 don't like it
Short 3
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-2 standing aside, not seeing anything right now.
Sneaky bastards, 2 min basing for upside, Long 3
-3.5 bastards!
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Long 3
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Closed shorts 7881.00
Quote from ASusilovic:
Closed shorts 7881.00
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3
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It seems, we will have range trading day...7850-7900...
Long 7854.50...
Closing one part 7878.00.....
Closing next part 7893...
Flat 7907.00....
Short 3
Based on divergence on 2 min
scaled out 2 +9.5
1 min now features a bullish bounce pattern, about to cover 3rd lot at TL
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3
Based on divergence on 2 min
scaled out 2 +9.5
1 min now features a bullish bounce pattern, about to cover 3rd lot at TL
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Stop elected 3rd +12.5
Long 3
Scaled out 2 +7.5
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Short 3
Scaled out 1 +9 I reckon there should be some more banging down below
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 3
Scaled out 1 +9 I reckon there should be some more banging down below
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What the hell was that all about ?
Quote from JSSPMK:
2 cover +8 Long 3
2 min!!!!!!
3 min!!!!!!
XMAS rally? LOL Santa is a buyer, joined by Goldman, Merrill & other elves
FUCK Scale out 2 +30
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Quote from dcraig:
What the hell was that all about ?
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Long off 1
Out 3 -2.5
Long 3 same level as pattern still valid
-3
Long 3 near same pattern OK
scaled 2 +9.5
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3rd being trailed to TL now, we just might have a XMas rally today.
Up Gross 140 revenge for yesterday
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Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd being trailed to TL now, we just might have a XMas rally today.
Up Gross 140 revenge for yesterday
Short FDAX into the close today...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Short FDAX into the close today...
Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd being trailed to TL now, we just might have a XMas rally today.
Up Gross 140 revenge for yesterday
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Quote from RedDuke:
Wow, holding it through 4 day weekend. You have guts, that's for sure. Good Luck. Happy Holidays!
short 8239.00
Quote from ASusilovic:
short 8239.00
1259 contracts traded ! HA, ha, ha !
Quote from ASusilovic:
Closed some shorts 8200 ! Ha, ha, ha ! What a joke early in the morning ! 80 points up, 40 points down in 2 minutes !
Quote from billdobson1972:
do u trade it though IB..whats the daily volume like... i plan to trade following AHG thread...
Ha, ha, ha...100 point move on 3028 contracts ! Hilarious ! I have to go back to 1991 in order to recall such "moves"...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Ha, ha, ha...100 point move on 3028 contracts ! Hilarious ! I have to go back to 1991 in order to recall such "moves"...
Long 3 off S2
Scaled out 2 +8.5
3rd -0.5 looking a tad weak, could fire through stops
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Long 3 off S2 plus 3 min's histogram off 1 min chart
Has to go through resistance now other wise 1 min declining histo could mean short for bears
Ready to reverse at an instant, eyes on 1 min histo
b/e and reversed Short 3
histo still declining a bit, time for 'hysteria' to kick in
sure is coiling at the moment, I don't like rising MACD though
-2
1 min still lower
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Long 3 going with MACD instead, off S2
Scaled out 2 +10
Stop screwing around, let's take it higher
2 min's MACD approaching centreline
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3 going with MACD instead, off S2
Scaled out 2 +10
I will post a chart later, it's a support area that I value
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Quote from JSSPMK:
I will post a chart later, it's a support area that I value
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realy nice
the price hit your s1.
do you calculate the pivot points the same as the regular one ?
yes, standard calculation, same goes for the indicator.
TL respected, good, need more bull power, might get another mini divergence on 1 soon.
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1 min histo looking like throttle time for bulls in the making, pivot target
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3 going with MACD instead, off S2
Scaled out 2 +10
Stop screwing around, let's take it higher
2 min's MACD approaching centreline
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Long 3 off support 1 min histo
Scaled out 2 +8
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3 going with MACD instead, off S2
Scaled out 2 +10
Stop screwing around, let's take it higher
2 min's MACD approaching centreline
Quote from ASusilovic:
JSSPMK,
you had nice X-Mas ? Impressed by your post X-Mas trading passion...
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Quote from JSSPMK:
TY! It was pretty quite, that's the way I like it, yourself? You had a nice short there AS, great fade.
5 min's histo right now points to a decline ImO. Tight range and declining histo, we ain't been able to go up.
3rd lot closed at b/e, not been able to go short
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Quote from JSSPMK:
5 min's histo right now points to a decline ImO. Tight range and declining histo, we ain't been able to go up.
Long 3 off 1 min histo
Scaled out 2 +9.5
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3rd lot -1
Up Gross 78.5 plus small ES gain
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Long 1 off 1 min histo
-5
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Long 1 off 1 & 2 histo
-6
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Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd lot -1
Up Gross 78.5 plus small ES gain
Long 3 off 3 min chart & ES 10 min prepping
-3
Long 3 same progressive pattern
-3
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Long 3 off 1 min and 10 min ES
ES @ S2
-4.5
Long ES off 10 min off 1, bottom fishing
-0.75
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Long 3 off 1 min C'MON!
Scaled out 2 +11.5
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3rd lot +18 reversed short 3 off 1 triple divergence
-2.5 & Long 3
-3 Short 3
Scaled out 2 +9.5
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Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd lot +18 reversed short 3 off 1 triple divergence
-2.5 & Long 3
-3 Short 3
Scaled out 2 +9.5
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Long 3
Scaled out 2 +8
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nice, more throttle please
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3rd lot +51.5
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Quote from JSSPMK:
3rd lot +51.5
Market close at 7 a.m.
...till 1/2/2008
Quote from Lorenzo:
Market close at 7 a.m.
...till 1/2/2008
http://www.eurexchange.com/trading/...ons2007_en.html
Quote from shaked:
is there any possiblity to explain a bit more to people like me that realy dont understand what are your triggers it can be very helpfull.
thank you very much
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Even if I explain it to you, you would need to spend many many hours getting used to/understanding market behaviour patterns. I am not being nasty, it's just that I am a believer in paying a price for learning, I don't mean paying me, I mean you learning the basics of technical analyses, losing money, progressing to being a breakeven trader and then advancing to level where you start making more than losing. I don't even know what level you are at right now.
I'll post some examples over weekend.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
I'll post some examples over weekend.
Here is a brief example of entry and 1st exit, I will later post another example of multi divergence cycle achieved in short period of time and how I trade those patterns, this one here is the most basic of a standard divergence.
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JSS,
Thanks for the chart and the explanation.
Have the happiest and the most prosperous of trading in the New Year.
-vertigo
And same to you V, Happy New Year all
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This is a current Spot Gold 2 hour chart which displays the other divergence, I would have liked to see more of a wedge there (failing upside thrusts) so far it's more of a channel so 4 lower peak in histo is quite possible, BUT nevertheless it is a valid triple bearish divergence. Actual risk vs expected reward is properly set, which looks like at least 1:5 at 1 support zone, even more so at second. Why has 2nd been marked there where it is, quite simply that is how I measure retracement cycles in a divergence. I take an average price traded whilst 1st highest peak was registering making it around 810-814 area.
This is a 2 hour chart, more of a swing, so no actual interest for me, but imagine that on 1 or 2 minute chart in fDAX and it would look same AND better if it has a rising wedge, that would be my second pattern that I favour very much.
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Happy New Year all and Good Luck !
Long off 2 min incomplete pattern, looking for HOD re-test
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Scaled out 2/3 +8.5
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7984.00 GAP closed...
7954.50 might be next target....
JSS
thank you for the charts and the explains, it is very helpful for me.
i wish you a very good year.
I have been reading this journal since its inception - Great journal.
In looking at the DAX chart yesterday it appears there was a large drop yesterday around 10am EST.
Was there an economic report that came out around that time? If so, does your trading method stay out of the market during those times?
Thanks,
Eric
Quote from Trader922:
I have been reading this journal since its inception - Great journal.
In looking at the DAX chart yesterday it appears there was a large drop yesterday around 10am EST.
Was there an economic report that came out around that time?
USD ISM Manufacturing Survey (DEC)
If so, does your trading method stay out of the market during those times?
No.
Thanks,
Eric
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=113268
Holding a short at the mo, divergence on 10 min, worth the wait ImO.
2 min showing a bullish bounce pattern though.
Going with a longer term chart for now.
Scaled out 1/3 +19.5
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Scaled out 1/3 +21
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Last 1/3 +33.5 too near the close
Just a quick visual of set-up that was happening on 10 minute chart and a couple of triggers on 1 minute chart, 1 loss/1win.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Last 1/3 +33.5 too near the close
Just a quick visual of set-up that was happening on 10 minute chart and a couple of triggers on 1 minute chart, 1 loss/1win.
1. I mainly use MACD histogram divergence;
2. I don't use volume nor DOM analyses, though do not consider them irrelevant, to me histogram shows enough info which is broken down for simpler analyses, I tried DOM analyses in the past and realised that my brain's bandwidth has a serious lag
3. I try not to hold overnight positions.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
1. I mainly use MACD histogram divergence;
2. I don't use volume nor DOM analyses, though do not consider them irrelevant, to me histogram shows enough info which is broken down for simpler analyses, I tried DOM analyses in the past and realised that my brain's bandwidth has a serious lag
3. I try not to hold overnight positions.
Quote from dandxg:
I was just curious. In am in my beginning study of Wyckoff price volume I find that look at the DAX is really nice for divergences, as you already know. You will get some perfect double tops with major MACD and volume divergences. Oh if I was in Europe.
Overnight meaning for me, I can't trade in the middle of the night.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
What do you normally (day)trade?
I personally prefer relatively quick outcomes and for that fDAX beats ES considering the spread vs average oscillation range, ES has more of a knee jerk p/a ImE.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
I personally prefer relatively quick outcomes and for that fDAX beats ES considering the spread vs average oscillation range, ES has more of a knee jerk p/a ImE.
Looking at weekly DAX's histo shows a definite bounce/reversal pattern whereas DJIA is the opposite, it's still within a bearish divergence.
On daily charts I view both as more bearish according to histogram, DAX is right on TL though.
Short near pivot
+1.5 reverse long off 1 min
-3
Still looking OK for possible Long, 1 min diverging, so is 2 min, watching possible start of bounce
Long near Lo
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-3.5
possible re-entry of same level
Long same level off 2 min divergence
-4
re-entered
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FDAX buyer 7874...tight stops
HI All
I'm back after one month break!
Buying dax 7844 and stoxx 4271
took some profit @ 7882
sold some @ 7903,5
keep my €stoxx position
Quote from younouss:
sold some @ 7903,5
keep my €stoxx position
buying again 7860
Quote from shaked:
very nice move
after the word "my" you wrote a sign that is in my language
Short of 2 & 3 min chart
Scaled out 2/3 +11.5
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1/3 +7
reversed for Long off 2 min bull pattern
if we don't take out hod i'll view this as fake move off 2 and it will register 4th peak and down we ought to head ImO
+1 reversed for Short as 4th lower peak on 2
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-3
3 min possible bounce in the making
Long 1/3 position
+6 reverse for Short off 1 min wedge declining histo
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10 min chart now looks like a rising wedge, K'MON!
-1
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Quote from younouss:
buying again 7860
WTG Y!
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Quote from JSSPMK:
WTG Y!
Quote from younouss:
hi bud, thanks! It's nice to start the year with such trades!
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Quote from younouss:
HI All
I'm back after one month break!
Buying dax 7844 and stoxx 4271
Quote from JSSPMK:
I am struggling here
Short 10 min high channel
short 7912...
closed one part 7873.00...
Flat FDAX...no strong Momentum today....
HI there ASusilovic & younouss
i am new here, and just try to learn and expand my limited knowledge of daytrading the DAX.
sorry for my question, but is it possible to have any idea about the trigger or any other clue for the reason of the trade ?
have a happy and profit year.
shaked
Quote from JSSPMK:
I am struggling here
Short 10 min high channel
Sell Hi please
Scaled out 2/3 +10
BREAKDOWN YOU KACKE
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[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]Here is a visual of my last entry, last 1/3 was trailed.
Thank you VERY MUCH for your time and explains, i study alot from you.
I hope one day i will be able to give back as much as you do for people here.
do you use fibonacci as well?
wish you best of all.
Quote from shaked:
[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]Here is a visual of my last entry, last 1/3 was trailed.
Thank you VERY MUCH for your time and explains, i study alot from you.
I hope one day i will be able to give back as much as you do for people here.
do you use fibonacci as well?
wish you best of all.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
I mainly use fibs as a secondary tool in conjunction with standard pivots.
Forgot to TY!
The more you follow intraday price action the more you will develop a sense of anticipation be it catching a falling knife or getting on board a train once it has already left. Whatever method you choose in the end will still be very dependable on your anticipation skills, that's why same method will work for some and not work for others, it's all to do with timely interpretation of price action and money management. All the best!
Just like in certain sports, the one that can anticipate (foresee) opponents most likely next move consistently has an edge over opponent, that is a very basic comparison as there are other variables, although 'frontrunning' provides a huge edge.
Gold bullish formation was identified last night, considering metal's strength and stock market's uncertainty in continuation of bull made me consider hourly and 10 min price action as very bullish.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...721#post1739721
Quote from shaked:
[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]Here is a visual of my last entry, last 1/3 was trailed.
Thank you VERY MUCH for your time and explains, i study alot from you.
I hope one day i will be able to give back as much as you do for people here.
do you use fibonacci as well?
wish you best of all.
[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]I mainly use fibs as a secondary tool in conjunction with standard pivots.
Forgot to TY!
BY the way, when looking back few weeks/months at a FUTURE chart, which one do you prefer. the chart of the current contract ( H8 ) or the continuation one ( there is a big differences between them ) ?
ASusilovic
i agree with you, this are the basics.
i am looking for learning more MIND SETS and open my mind to other's strategies about future daytrading.
all of the successful traders i met always told me that you must never stop learning, always feed your brain with some fresh ideas, strategies. it doesn't mean you have to change your own one. you just have to be aware of others point of view.
i think everyone can teach someone else something new, even if it's a very small thing ( it can be very helpful one day ).
THANK YOU VERY MUCH
Quote from shaked:
[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]I mainly use fibs as a secondary tool in conjunction with standard pivots.
Forgot to TY!
BY the way, when looking back few weeks/months at a FUTURE chart, which one do you prefer. the chart of the current contract ( H8 ) or the continuation one ( there is a big differences between them ) ?
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Quote from shaked:
[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]I mainly use fibs as a secondary tool in conjunction with standard pivots.
Forgot to TY!
BY the way, when looking back few weeks/months at a FUTURE chart, which one do you prefer. the chart of the current contract ( H8 ) or the continuation one ( there is a big differences between them ) ?
ASusilovic
i agree with you, this are the basics.
i am looking for learning more MIND SETS and open my mind to other's strategies about future daytrading.
all of the successful traders i met always told me that you must never stop learning, always feed your brain with some fresh ideas, strategies. it doesn't mean you have to change your own one. you just have to be aware of others point of view.
i think everyone can teach someone else something new, even if it's a very small thing ( it can be very helpful one day ).
THANK YOU VERY MUCH
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Re - fibs
Have a look at 2 minute gold chart now, we had a lift - retrace via a bull flag, now buyers coming in on 23.6%, but R2 coincides almost with 38.2% so that could be a better place to re-enter the run. If entering at 23.6 then it would be prudent (ImO) practise to reduce position size in light of possible further retracement towards R2/38.2 zone, even so that to me has to be confirmed by 1/2/3 minute chart's histograms.
just touched 878 near resistance/hod
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At the point of fibo 23.6 + macd divergence + next 1 or 2 upside candles - could it be a trigger for quick scalp or longer trade, or you looking for more confirmation ( let's ignore for a moment from risk/reward management ) ?
Quote from shaked:
At the point of fibo 23.6 + macd divergence + next 1 or 2 upside candles - could it be a trigger for quick scalp or longer trade, or you looking for more confirmation ( let's ignore for a moment from risk/reward management ) ?
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Quote from younouss:
closing fdax here @ 7930 and half of €stoxx
[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]Because I am not an educator, it would be very difficult for me to explain to you what goes in my mind when I am looking for a trigger. I do not advocate scalping, even though it may seem at times that I am scalping, you should never ignore risk/reward btw, as that is one of key variables to be considered before you enter position. My trigger is always 1 minute chart's histogram together with price action, if price starts oscillating frantically I will stay away, I like to see a build up to a move, as that:
I learned a lot of what you wrote.
thanks alot.
short fdax R2
Short 7982.50...
flat....7982.50...Wall Street playing no recession mode...
Quote from younouss:
short fdax R2
Quote from younouss:
stopped
Quote from shaked:
Very good entry of both you & ASusilovic.
No partial along the way down ?
Quote from ASusilovic:
If you´re initiating a trade you have an expectation based on your Risk / Reward...partial makes sense when first target reached....
Sh.t !!...Typical day when I´m angry at missing an opportunity...I got the right idea, but Wall Street opening irritated...especially reaction after pending home sales ....
Quote from ASusilovic:
Sh.t !!...Typical day when I´m angry at missing an opportunity...I got the right idea, but Wall Street opening irritated...especially reaction after pending home sales ....
fdax
free fdax signals at
www.blob.tv
parliamo Italiano, anyone?
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Quote from JSSPMK:
parliamo Italiano, anyone?
perche' no, sei Italiano?
I only know the bad ones
Va fankulo & kaco duro
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
I only know the bad ones
Va fankulo & kaco duro
Quote from younouss:
lol
TY!__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Hey you, you brought me luck yesterday
I had a lucky catch in ES this afternoon.
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short 1431.75 stop near 1433
Scaled out 2/3 +3
later 1/3 +15.25
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nice trade bud!
vodka time now!
Quote from younouss:
nice trade bud!
vodka time now!
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AS, what is your outlook? I still standby my previous analyses.
Quote from JSSPMK:
Seriously guys/gals, what do you reckon on that monthly chart that I posted yesterday? It looks very toppy to me, especially a number of variables seems to line up:
1. Price is high re-tested previous all time highs (buy Lo/Sell Hi);
2. Histogram has put in 3 lowered peaks and now is at centreline (check out histogram on monthly charts going back 20 years to see potential outcome when this happens);
3. DAX has already registered 2 failure swings;
4. We have higher vola in other indexes, which does suggest an end (even if intermediate) of a cycle;
5. Subprime problems can not simply be absorbed by financials, losses have to be reflected in markets, somehow;
6. Divergence on monthly chart;
7. Oil about to go through $100 (speculative call but makes sense to me), look at gold, platinum and of course silver, money has been pouring in there which suggests that stock markets are about to take a turn;
8. Price is forming an apex on same monthly chart and histogram suggests (to me) that price most likely to breakdown, rather than breakout to upside.
9. Almost forgotten, Hang Seng put in a HUGE shtick in just months and also has a divergence on daily chart (I think it is daily), if/when China drops we all drop, same for US markets as we all know.
10. Dow30 and S&P both have divergence on weekly charts (a triple one also)
I am sure there are other reasons, but I guess I managed to scratch the surface a bit.
Edit - of course a sudden shtick to upside can't be excluded, as it so many times happens prior to actual market turn, intraday and longer term.
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JSSPMK,
you remember our good old "reversion to the mean" expectations our friendly neighbourhood Quants are always looking for ? Well, in a way I welcome the volatility since early June 2007, but the observation of 8-10 % up / down days for certain stocks makes me think of an major reversal pattern occuring in the long run - as we have learned these kind of voltatility eruptions occur at major highs or lows.
As such I would agree with your expectation that there might be some more downward pressure on stocks and indices in the U.S. as consequence.
BUT !!!!....
keep in mind that investing has always to do with comparing alternatives ! T-Notes yields at 3,84 %. Real estate market is most probably the wrong place to be in right now. Commodities seem to be an viable alternative for stock investments ( take a look at Copper development today ! ). Currencies look extremely attractive in regards of expected actions by FED, ECB etc.
Also helpful is a look at worldwide markets. Are we in "recession mode" in Europe, Asia, South America ? I go against the view that the U.S. market is responsible for the well-being of the global economy ! We still see very good growth rates in emerging markets - although some commentators warn about some of them might "overheat" and are heavily indebted.
Funny enough, the FED is predicting no recession and even citing inflation concerns as more urgent then growth.
So, it will be fun to see who´s macro staff is better at work : FED or Wall Street IB´s. Personally, I keep it with the FED. Never fight the FED ! Ha, ha, ha....
Regarding short term outlook :
we´re almost too far from the mean...we may see some more downward pressure in the next couple of days, but chances very high of a decent upward move...
AS, TY for posting your outlooks.
I would like to post a couple of charts, first one is from today's 2 min fDAX session where there was a pattern very similar to the one I traded yesterday via ES, I didn't post this in real-time as ET's servers must have got themselves a bargain over at Lastminute.com
So here is a very straightforward rising wedge plus a slant divergence, took 2 trades to nail the breakdown. Here is the visual.
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Here is Hang Seng daily, where earlier divergence seems to be not quite able to reach expected retracement zone, instead I see a bullish pennant, expecting a breakout.
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[QUOTE]Quote from ASusilovic:
[B]JSSPMK,
you remember our good old "reversion to the mean" expectations our friendly neighbourhood Quants are always looking for ? Well, in a way I welcome the volatility since early June 2007, but the observation of 8-10 % up / down days for certain stocks makes me think of an major reversal pattern occuring in the long run - as we have learned these kind of voltatility eruptions occur at major highs or lows.
Hi Jssmpk & ASusilovic
1. I studied that markets never fall out of fear but out of greed.
2. The real estate and the finance crises is a very serious thing, but so far you got no earning warnings, p/e very reasonable, imported profits from the BRIC ( platform economy ) etc...
3. Inflation ( at normal range ) is a sign of buying power ( we all think it's negative ).
4. The global liquidity + global strong growth + low interest rates creates Lots of money looking for good investments.
In my opinion it will stay very volatile in the next few months within this ~range. ( but who knows ... )
That's how I work set-up on longer term chart via a 1 min trigger, here is visual.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
That's how I work set-up on longer term chart via a 1 min trigger, here is visual.
[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]That's how I work set-up on longer term chart via a 1 min trigger, here is visual.
Very nice !!!
In my 5 minutes chart the MACD HISTOGRAM ( 12,26,9 ) was under the zero line all day up to 11:40...
The 1 minute is the same.
Quote from shaked:
[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]That's how I work set-up on longer term chart via a 1 min trigger, here is visual.
Very nice !!!
In my 5 minutes chart the MACD HISTOGRAM ( 12,26,9 ) was under the zero line all day up to 11:40...
The 1 minute is the same.
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DAX 5 min
I don't know how to do it properly but here is what i can.
Quote from JSSPMK:
post today's chart please, that's probably because you are using RTH plotting, I use a 24hr plot, I think that is the reason.
Quote from shaked:
I use 8:00 - 22:00 hours, does it make the diffrence ?
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
of course it does, on RTH can you see that pattern that I could see on my 24 hour chart?
Quote from shaked:
What do you mean by RTH, is it real time hours of the cash index and not the future hours ?
what gives you 24 hours if the future trade 8:00 - 22:00, there are no bars beyond this hours ?
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Yes, regular trading hours.
I use data source which tracks US after hours performance and incorporates it into a DAX chart, so after 10pm you would not get any data on your chart whereas I do, hence you could not see that pattern on 5.
ImO looks like we are basing for a bounce here
long now
-3
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Shit, missed a sell trigger on 1 min ES pre news release.
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visual
Idiot!
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]visual
Idiot!
you can't beet them all !!!
Quote from shaked:
[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]visual
Idiot!
you can't beet them all !!!
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
sure, but when you miss such an obvious opportunity you can't help but feel like a bit of a dumb ass
!!
Looks like classic reversion to the mean scenario in ES ! Maybe we will hit 1446 today !
FDAX shall follow our fellow American neighbourhood players !
Quote from ASusilovic:
Looks like classic reversion to the mean scenario in ES ! Maybe we will hit 1446 today !
FDAX shall follow our fellow American neighbourhood players !
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Heaven for TA traders today wouldn't you say?
technical analyses
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
long 7768.50...
Banking on gap AS?
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Bernanke said the central bankers "stand ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks."
Quote from JSSPMK:
Banking on gap AS?
Quote from ASusilovic:
No. Fundamentally. Bernanke will not allow U.S. into recession. He repeated yesterday :
U.S. will avoid recession.
Never fight the FED !
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
there is a difference between what he wishes and what he can actually do.
Lowering rates may not work this time and markets remain "free" to a certain extent.
The cemetery of central bankers is filled with failed doctors.
Quote from Alexandre:
there is a difference between what he wishes and what he can actually do.
Lowering rates may not work this time and markets remain "free" to a certain extent.
The cemetery of central bankers is filled with failed doctors.
Quote from JSSPMK:
Did he actually say WILL avoid?
It will be bloody hard to negate monthly chart's bearishness, FED might create a spike ImO, which most likely ought to be faded. Monthly is a big chart after all.
what are the chances of a recession and what are the chances of avoiding one by lowering rates.
anyway, I don't think markets will move today on the back of what you just said.
Regarding your long on the Dax, it's a good entry.
You are obviously expecting US futures to reverse upward.
What's your exit target?
Short possible 3rd lower peak
Scaled out 2/3 +8.5 near 38.2%
Looking like a mini H&S on 1 now
Support on 50%, I'll probably get taken out now on 1/3 @ b/e, yep, 1/3 -0.5
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Nothing to write home about.
Short off 2 min
-2.5
Same again, set-up still OKish progressing into 3 min chart
Scaled out +7.5
1/3 -1
Short again just lower
-3
I would like to get that diamond, charts still pointing down
Short same off 1,2,3
-3.5
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Quote from Alexandre:
what are the chances of a recession and what are the chances of avoiding one by lowering rates.
anyway, I don't think markets will move today on the back of what you just said.
Regarding your long on the Dax, it's a good entry.
You are obviously expecting US futures to reverse upward.
What's your exit target?
Trailing stop hit 7792.00 for one part of position...
Shorts pretty courageous for this part of daily action...protecting 7798.00...next target 7821.50...
Buyer 7768.50...
Will it break the double/triple bottom?
Buying again 7768.50.....
Ready for some stop fishing below 7764.50 ?
Hi ASusilovic and JSSPMK - I begin trading the DAX next week
What will you say is the "least difficult" time of day to trade it (for a new futurestrader)? Morning(Europe time) or evening (Europe time) ?
Thanks guys - you are doing a great job and love reading about your trades! Looking forward to joining myself!
Regards,
Christoffer
Short again off 2 min histo
scaled out +10.5
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Long again 7768.50....
Quote from christoffer:
Hi ASusilovic and JSSPMK - I begin trading the DAX next week
What will you say is the "least difficult" time of day to trade it (for a new futurestrader)? Morning(Europe time) or evening (Europe time) ?
Thanks guys - you are doing a great job and love reading about your trades! Looking forward to joining myself!
Regards,
Christoffer
ImO it looks like S2 is the anchor point, we'll see
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Quote from JSSPMK:
ImO it looks like S2 is the anchor point, we'll see
Quote from shaked:
Market profile is showing a bit higher 7786 = 7716 in the cash index ( the open ).
Hi RedDuke
Thanks a lot for your advice, much appreciated! I haven't Sim traded it - just studied charts of it. I might Sim it for a couple of weeks then.
Do you trade from Europe as well?
How long have you been trading it?
Regards,
Christoffer
shaked - Nice trade!
Where do you find Market Profile for DAX?
Do you calculate it yourself?
Quote from christoffer:
Hi RedDuke
Thanks a lot for your advice, much appreciated! I haven't Sim traded it - just studied charts of it. I might Sim it for a couple of weeks then.
Do you trade from Europe as well?
How long have you been trading it?
Regards,
Christoffer
Quote from christoffer:
shaked - Nice trade!
Where do you find Market Profile for DAX?
Do you calculate it yourself?
Quote from christoffer:
Hi ASusilovic and JSSPMK - I begin trading the DAX next week
What will you say is the "least difficult" time of day to trade it (for a new futurestrader)? Morning(Europe time) or evening (Europe time) ?
Thanks guys - you are doing a great job and love reading about your trades! Looking forward to joining myself!
Regards,
Christoffer
DAX can be very rewarding, but can also make holes in your pockets a lot quicker than any Miss gold digger. All the best!__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Hi all, i do not pretend to be a pro trader, i'm certainly not,
but i do have quite a bit of screen time on currency futures for the last 3 years, trading mini swings.
The problem with this style of trading is, it can get a bit boring, that's why i've been observing the DAX for the last 3 months.
This beast can certainly move!!!, i will start trading it live next week...see how long it takes to wipe my account out
Reading this thread has been helpfull and i extend a thank you
to the traders involved.
This quote from JSSPMK sounds familiar:
"My experiences up to now have progressed through 3 stages, 1st being - oh it's pretty simple (say bye to your money), 2nd - bloody hell I am confused here by sheer amount of information & 3rd - back to point 1, but this time it's a different 'simple', when you get to the stage of pattern recognition without having to think too hard about it, it becomes simpler and pieces start to click together a lot quicker.
Hi Baron193,
I have the same question to you, how much time did you spend trading DAX on simulator and how is your performance?
All sim trades will do for you is prove that you have a system with an edge and that you can actually execute.
It is by no means will guarantee you you will be in positive on live account, but it is an absolute must before live trading.
Regards,
redduke
Hi Redduke, i did not have a simulated account for the DAX...however i beleive i do have a good understanding of how differently things work out from eyeballing a chart to actually trading it.
I have a simulated account now, Ninja trader, so what i plan to do is take some of my best R/R set ups i see on the real account, and also practise trade the simulator on all set ups, to discover my perfomance overall....
The way i trade is pretty simple, an oscilator for congestion, support/ resistance lines on very short timeframes (1 min.) within larger timeframe set ups, fibonacci, trendlines, fibb convergence.
Thank you for your reply,
regards, baron193.
Anybody trading FDAX today ?....
Any idea why we spiked at 5:45 ET and again at 7:30 ET?
Quote from ASusilovic:
Anybody trading FDAX today ?....
Gold, Crude and some fDAX today, good day so far, unusual for a Monday
__________________
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Quote from ASusilovic:
Anybody trading FDAX today ?....
Quote from shaked:
One trade at the morning - Short at 7802 and stoped
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[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]That's what I saw.
Thanks JSSPMK
That's what I saw in Gold this am jumping on train pennant breakout and sold at red arrow at first sign of divergence (scaled trade).
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And this is the 2 min chart of crude where I saw a bounce formation on 4 hour chart and waited for a similar set-up on smaller time frame to provide trigger for 4 hour chart with 1 min being trigger for 2 min set-up. Sold at first sign of divergence (scaled trade).
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the dax not buying the idea of a bounce
Quote from Alexandre:
the dax not buying the idea of a bounce
closing around 7750 up 0.40% on very low volumes is not what I call strength, I'm very doubtful
Quote from Alexandre:
closing around 7750 up 0.40% on very low volumes is not what I call strength, I'm very doubtful
The trades i spotted in the morning (the only time i can trade it)
i, like Shaked, did try to fade the 7800 with a small loss
"Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions.
Small people always do that, but the really great make you feel
that you, too, can become great."
-Mark Twain
chart missing...
Quote from younouss:
hi long since this morning! Vodka time soon....
Citibbank "Judgement Day" ! Ha, ha, ha...
Citigroup Will Cut 20,000 Jobs and Slash Dividend, WSJ Reports...
About 6,500 of the more than 20,000 job cuts will be in the investment bank, the Journal said. The largest investor to add capital is the Government Investment Corp. of Singapore, the report said. The Kuwait Investment Authority, Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal and at least one U.S. fund management firm are also investing in Citigroup, the Journal said.
Citigroup, based in New York, is scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings this morning. The average estimate of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is for a loss of 97 cents a share.
Here´s a little prayer :
Oh my Lord, give Citi the power to survive ! Forgive them their sins, as we forgive them who sin against their customers, employees and shareholders!
Long FDAX 7738.50....
Long fDAX 7734.5
Quote from shaked:
Long fDAX 7734.5
Quote from shaked:
Half take profit at 7764.5 ..... WHAT THE HELL IS GOING THERE ??? Maybe the news about citibank getting capital infusion...
Quote from ASusilovic:
You should make yourself familiar with this kind of volatility in FDAX...nothing uncommon about it....
Quote from shaked:
Half take profit at 7764.5 ..... WHAT THE HELL IS GOING THERE ??? Maybe the news about citibank getting capital infusion...
Trailing stop triggered....
Long 7742.00...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Long 7742.00...
long 7682
Quote from younouss:
long 7682
Quote from younouss:
timing is shitty. sold 7668
Quote from shaked:
You can try weekly S1 = 7652, could be a bounce but very risky.
Quote from younouss:
i have the weekly S1 @ 7675...
is your weekly pivot is 7824 ?
Quote from shaked:
You can try weekly S1 = 7652, could be a bounce but very risky.
Quote from shaked:
ImO weekly pivotal is to be used for swing trading mainly, I personally use intraday pivots for daytrading
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Dissapointing day so far...stops hit related to my FDAX positions...I thought we would see more of a relief rally regarding MER and CITI news...but wrong !
I also had a tough morning. My first red day of the year. These first 2 hours before ZEW had no follow throughs at all. I was able to make some of it back, after ZEW, but not enough to cover losses. Usually ZEW mornings have more action and I go flat 5 min before it comes out and stay out after for first 2-5 minutes as well.
Redduke, Shaked, JSSPMK
Thanks very much for your answers and good advice a couple of days ago. Haven't had time to thank you before.
I greatly appreciate what you say. Will still follow your posts here, but will start with trading ES and YM primary. I live in Europe so obviously DAX would be nicer for me to trade once I get good at it. But I do see it does move super-fast.
Very inspirational to read your posts and it gives me much to look forward to!
Good luck, I hope to join you in DAX withing this year.
Regards,
Christoffer
Quote from JSSPMK:
ImO weekly pivotal is to be used for swing trading mainly, I personally use intraday pivots for daytrading
Quote from christoffer:
Redduke, Shaked, JSSPMK
Thanks very much for your answers and good advice a couple of days ago. Haven't had time to thank you before.
I greatly appreciate what you say. Will still follow your posts here, but will start with trading ES and YM primary. I live in Europe so obviously DAX would be nicer for me to trade once I get good at it. But I do see it does move super-fast.
Very inspirational to read your posts and it gives me much to look forward to!
Good luck, I hope to join you in DAX withing this year.
Regards,
Christoffer
Quote from RedDuke:
I also had a tough morning. My first red day of the year. These first 2 hours before ZEW had no follow throughs at all. I was able to make some of it back, after ZEW, but not enough to cover losses. Usually ZEW mornings have more action and I go flat 5 min before it comes out and stay out after for first 2-5 minutes as well.
Long FDAX 7582.50, dynamic hedging in place....
Smells like Panic day ! I love panic days ! I hope that finally every player is convinced of a recession in the U.S. !
Quote from ASusilovic:
Smells like Panic day ! I love panic days ! I hope that finally every player is convinced of a recession in the U.S. !
Quote from shaked:
Usually when " every player is convinced of a recession in the U.S. ", this is the turn around point... we need more time to see if it happens.
Strong points for today ~7470 ~7550 ~7630
I'm long 7550...
Quote from shaked:
Half take profit 7570 ( +20 ) stop move to entry.
Nice trade Shaked, your entry was very close to mine
10.52am possible IHS setting up, are we ready for a thrust AS?
There is a possibility of a 3rd higher trough on 1 minute chart, also MACD on 2 & 3 min charts looks like a jigsaw, will we get buy the rumour type day? I would rather be a buyer here personally and if my ass is handed to me on a golden platter at least I can justify it
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Quote from shaked:
What is ZEW ?
Thank you
Quote from shaked:
What is ZEW ?
Thank you
[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]Nice trade Shaked, your entry was very close to mine
10.52am possible IHS setting up, are we ready for a thrust AS?
There is a possibility of a 3rd higher trough on 1 minute chart, also MACD on 2 & 3 min charts looks like a jigsaw, will we get buy the rumour type day? I would rather be a buyer here personally and if my ass is handed to me on a golden platter at least I can justify it
Thanks. I got in for other reasons ( fibo 150 for yesterday down movement' weekly S2 = 7550, CASH channel broke down )
You teach me alot, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
what is IHS, is it the divergence set up ?
inversed head & shoulders, not shampoo
On the other hand I also see 3 failure swing with lowered histogram, hm.
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Quote from JSSPMK:
inversed head & shoulders, not shampoo
Quote from younouss:
lol
Have you seen the short on gold?
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Quote from RedDuke:
It is an economic number (I believe survey) that is done in Germany. When it is released, the market becomes very volatile. Another important one is IFO. You can download weekly economic calendar from dailyfx.com.
I am always flat few min before and after numbers come one.
Regards,
redduke
am short dax with trailing stop...
I am long, I think that was a little shake out
Scaled out 2/3 +10.5
please don't shake me, please ...
holding as 1 min possible bounce pattern
11.50am looks like we should bounce now, C'MON!!!
-9 on 1/3
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There was a kind of tripple bottom in 5 minutes chart, we have to see if it's holding.
Long ES off 2 min
Scaled out 2/3 +1.5
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
I am long, I think that was a little shake out
Scaled out 2/3 +10.5
please don't shake me, please ...
holding as 1 min possible bounce pattern
11.50am looks like we should bounce now, C'MON!!!
-9 on 1/3
Quote from shaked:
What a FIGHT over there !!!
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from younouss:
am short dax with trailing stop...
Quote from JSSPMK:
I don't watch the volume as I just trade patterns, is volume picking up?
).
Quote from shaked:
Me neither, I see the price movment as a FIGHT ( maybe it is just the big players playing with us
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
OK, I think it's just regular trading activity, ImO a fight between major participants is normally observed on very high volume and when price remains in a tight range, of course this is just my observation from the past.
)
short again
Quote from younouss:
short again
Long 7515 daily S2
Half take profit 7535
stop to entry.
JSSPMK the last movement in the price is the fight i'm talking about.
Still Long ES here, all charts that I look at are lining up for upside ImO
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Still Long ES here, all charts that I look at are lining up for upside ImO
Quote from younouss:
we might see 7500/05 though... and up
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Still Long ES here, all charts that I look at are lining up for upside ImO
Quote from JSSPMK:
ImO, and this is highly speculative opinion as I am 0 in fundamentals, we now have to pay more attention to what US charts look like as it is because of the US we have this cloud hanging over us, of course we all copycated them, so not saying they are entirely responsible.
Quote from shaked:
Long 7515 daily S2
Half take profit 7535
stop to entry.
JSSPMK the last movement in the price is the fight i'm talking about.
+8.25 on last 1/3 ES, pre-news histo was positive, will post chart.
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visual
Quote from JSSPMK:
Lift & a tag?
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short fdax 61
Quote from younouss:
short fdax 61
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Looking at 3 min chart I think your entry was pretty good, good luck with that one!
Quote from younouss:
flat entry point..
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
You know that is exactly why I scale out, the way I see it is very similar to Volente's position management. My main win rate is derived from gains generated on 2/3 scale out points, by leaving 1/3 it's like an add on main position, if bounce leads to a reversal I stand to benefit substantially more. Not telling you how to do it, just my 2c.
Quote from shaked:
Another quarter sold at 7565 ( +50 ), just because the economic announce at 15:30 ( in 3 minutes )
last quarter remain.
Quote from shaked:
Last quarter stop moved up to 7575.
Quote from shaked:
This is exactlly what i see, one is trying to push the market down and the other is holding it so far - in a narrow 30 points range.
I think the volume so far is normal ( but it's not my territory
No CHECK SPELLING so i'm sorry for my wrong spelling !!!
JSS
don't you see any short on 3min chart around 7608?
Quote from RedDuke:
30 points range can yield nice profits if played properly.
Guys,
Don't you think we need to change thread title to something more descriptive, like "Intraday DAX trading"?
redduke
Quote from RedDuke:
Guys,
Don't you think we need to change thread title to something more descriptive, like "Intraday DAX trading"?
redduke
Quote from RedDuke:
Guys,
Don't you think we need to change thread title to something more descriptive, like "Intraday DAX trading"?
redduke
If you guys are O.K. with it, we shall ask the mod about to change the thread´s name. I´m fine with it !
Quote from ASusilovic:
If you guys are O.K. with it, we shall ask the mod about to change the thread´s name. I´m fine with it !
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from younouss:
JSS
don't you see any short on 3min chart around 7608?
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Just start a new one AS, I don't think moderators can change name of thread.
OK, my bad
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"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
long 7573..
I am flat, this type of p/a so far is not my cup of tea, though I might give a short a go, depends.
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buying stoxx 4168
buying more dax
Monthly - bearish
Weekly - bearish
Multi-day - bearish
Daily - bearish
4 hour - don't know what to make of it, could indicate a bounce to some I suppose
2 hour - like above, don't see anything worthwhile
1 hour - like 2 hour
30 min - same
15 min - same
10 min - same
5 min - indicates sellers have control for now
3 min - neither here nor there
2 min - same
1 min - same
ImO
EDIT - 5 min turning bullish
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Monthly - bearish
Weekly - bearish
Multi-day - bearish
Daily - bearish
4 hour - don't know what to make of it, could indicate a bounce to some I suppose
2 hour - like above, don't see anything worthwhile
1 hour - like 2 hour
30 min - same
15 min - same
10 min - same
5 min - indicates sellers have control for now
3 min - neither here nor there
2 min - same
1 min - same
ImO
EDIT - 5 min turning bullish
once we start moving down it's going to be fast, market is currently in very tight trading range as there is lots of gamma hedging in low volumes.
1/3/5/15/30 going nowhere
60 looks interesting
I made decision on day and 1h chart...
Alexandre, the way I calculate ranges where divergence might be taking price to & if looking at the monthly slant divergence, which is not that reliable for calculating retracement zones, DAX index is to head towards 4000 area, is that nuts from a fundamental point to expect it to get there? Opinions
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Here is the visual
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Long off 1 min + pivot possible support
Scaled out +8.5
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Here is the visual
7575 repulsive zone now, good shorting spot
Quote from Alexandre:
7575 repulsive zone now, good shorting spot
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long off 1 min + pivot possible support
Scaled out +8.5
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Alexandre, the way I calculate ranges where divergence might be taking price to & if looking at the monthly slant divergence, which is not that reliable for calculating retracement zones, DAX index is to head towards 4000 area, is that nuts from a fundamental point to expect it to get there? Opinions
Apart from trading, here´s a salary list from Germany´s top earners :
Hedgefund Manager earning less then prop / top traders....
At the moment, by watching the best range for the options writers, it loooks like the PUT options writers on the ES won't let it down below 1370 - 1375 ( tomorow is the expiration).
Very risky days ( and very interesting ).
Long small amount of ES 1371
Quote from ASusilovic:
Apart from trading, here�s a salary list from Germany�s top earners :
Hedgefund Manager earning less then prop / top traders....
Quote from shaked:
At the moment, by watching the best range for the options writers, it loooks like the PUT options writers on the ES won't let it down below 1370 - 1375 ( tomorow is the expiration).
Very risky days ( and very interesting ).
Long small amount of ES 1371
WTG Shaked!
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
WTG Shaked!
Quote from shaked:
I'm sorry, english is not my born language, what is WTG ?
Stop move up to 1375.
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Do you know an English word Google , very handy
Way To Go=very good
Quote from shaked:
Thank you, i hope someone else made some money there too.
I will look for this English word Google right now, thanks.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Long Fdax 7551( fibo 50% for last move 7520 - 7581 + daily PP )
Quote from shaked:
I'm sorry, english is not my born language, what is WTG ?
Stop move up to 1375.
stopped fdax...
buying fdax 7446
carefull with short positions
I would be very carefull with short positions because I smell an emergency rate cut. Fed is way behind the curve and Bernanke would maybe follow Greenspans footsteps and anounce a rate cut BEFORE the meeting. Today would be good timing, shorts would get toasted.
Anyway we will get 75 point cut in January, thats nearly sure.
Phil
What a great morning and a good way to end the week (i only trade opening hours).
Quote from younouss:
buying fdax 7446
Quote from JSSPMK:
I am trying to fade that move now
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
I find the range bars very useful to scalp/daytrade the DAX
Quote from younouss:
buying fdax 7446
short dax 7548
tight stop...
[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]It's interesting how 2 almost identical set-ups happen 2 days on a trot.
Hi, are both in the same time frame ( 1 min ) ?
Quote from Lorenzo:
I find the range bars very useful to scalp/daytrade the DAX
Quote from younouss:
short dax 7548
tight stop...
Quote from younouss:
covered 7516
Quote from younouss:
covered 7516
Quote from younouss:
Short on W S2 and covered on intraday S
Quote from shaked:
[QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
[B]It's interesting how 2 almost identical set-ups happen 2 days on a trot.
Hi, are both in the same time frame ( 1 min ) ?
__________________
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good morning fellow traders,
what's your view for today?
Quote from Alexandre:
good morning fellow traders,
what's your view for today?
Next price level (FDAX) i've got is 7129....that's a long way down.....
Quote from Alexandre:
good morning fellow traders,
what's your view for today?
hmm..7160...on this chart
Quote from baron193:
hmm..7160...on this chart
It's getting closer...
I think, I am a buyer here 7192.50...I love PANIC days....
Buying more 7164.00...
reversed 7156 and 3900 stoxx
Nice confirmation if this turns out to be a higher low..
Quote from younouss:
reversed 7156 and 3900 stoxx
Cool ! I like the vola.....that´s going to be a funny day !
I think, it´s time for dynamic hedging and for buying some calls !
Quote from ASusilovic:
I think, it´s time for dynamic hedging and for buying some calls !
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Imo it smells like a capitulation day but who knows...
Quote from JSSPMK:
AS, last week I posted a chart on ES when I traded a set-up, another member posted a chart on SPY options, they went x3 premium in minutes.
But I bought also some ATM calls...playing kind of reversion to the mean scenario....
Quote from younouss:
buying 6890
v.small position...
How a French banker's comments derailed stocks
A story with a headline "French regulator sees 'partial decoupling' of U.S. and E.U. economies" doesn't sound like the kind to derail stocks from Mumbai to Paris.
Particularly when the losses came Monday, for an article published Friday in the International Herald Tribune, a paper best known for re-printing articles from its parent, The New York Times, in newsstands around Europe.
Understandably, the story was slow to get around. But sitting in paragraph nine, there were comments that amount to a profit warning for banks in France as well as those around the world.
"I'm reasonably confident that French banks will weather this turmoil without major trouble even though they are clearly, like all banks, in the world still in the process of marking down assets," said Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France and a member of the European Central Bank's governing council, Noyer's comments about "marking down assets" were enough to hit banks like Societe Generale which saw drops of around 8% on Friday and lost another 7% on Monday.
Chart of FR:013080
The comments from Noyer had a particular impact because the first version of the story - which no longer appear in the online edition -- said he was assessing balance sheets of SocGen and BNP Paribas.
The current story on the IHT's Web site doesn't mention any bank in particular.
Ha, ha, ha....great stuff !
yep! Richelieu Finance is in big trouble as well...
Quote from younouss:
buying 6890
v.small position...
Quote from younouss:
sold half
long again 6968
no fDAX today, just ES. Wasn't going to trade at all today, woke up comfortably later than usual, opened charts and first thought was WOW, Shiiiiit LOL.
Amazing how all this is happening while the US stock market remains closed today, is that a coincidence? Feeling sorry for people that kept buying when conditions certainly indicated toppish price action. If futures don't revert today, which is optimistic yet who knows with PPT and all, then tomorrow might be a Black Tuesday.
All the best to all!
__________________
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Quote from younouss:
long again 6968
stopped..
Long crude $88.46, stop $88.40
will post chart later
gaps in data
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Long crude $88.46, stop $88.40
will post chart later
gaps in data
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
no fDAX today, just ES. Wasn't going to trade at all today, woke up comfortably later than usual, opened charts and first thought was WOW, Shiiiiit LOL.
Amazing how all this is happening while the US stock market remains closed today, is that a coincidence? Feeling sorry for people that kept buying when conditions certainly indicated toppish price action. If futures don't revert today, which is optimistic yet who knows with PPT and all, then tomorrow might be a Black Tuesday.
All the best to all!
Quote from ASusilovic:
There is no "Black Tuesday" or "Black Monday" or "Black Whatsoever" ! Only buying opprtunities, opportunities, opportunities....history proves and repeats....
BUY PERMABULLS
Quote from syrre:
BUY PERMABULLS
Short?
Im not playing for the other team, im full fledge member of team long.
I am staying away. The depth is way too thin and the spread is constantly jumpimg to 4-5 ticks.
Quote from syrre:
Short?
Im not playing for the other team, im full fledge member of team long.
I just saw spread as wide as 11 ticks, I have never seen it before.
Biggest DAX pos ever at 6500
DAMN
Phew!
Here is a piece of paper from Deutsche Bank ( unfortunately only in German language ), anlayzing consequences of the subprime crisis. At page 32 is a funny headline question ( translated ) :
"Have U.S. mortgage bankers been on drugs ?
http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_...00000218883.pdf
Quote from RedDuke:
I just saw spread as wide as 11 ticks, I have never seen it before.
A bear mkt is officially defined as a 20% fall from a previous peak,
such
as was
seen in the DAX this morning at 6,500
However, by looking at the 9 bear markets we have seen since April
1970,
and
using the DAX as our model, it is possible to see that mkts continue
very
poorly
after entering a bear phase. In fact it is an average of 10 months and
minus
25% of performance until the bottom is achieved. See below
Date of entry into bear No. of months til bottom Index move
to bottom
Apr 1970 19 -19.0%
July 1973 16 -18.6%
July 1986 19 -26.0%
Oct 1987 3 -22.0%
Aug 1990 5 -15.0%
Oct 1992 0 0.0%
Aug 1998 1 -19.0%
Mar 2001 24 -63.0%
Quote from ASusilovic:
Here is a piece of paper from Deutsche Bank ( unfortunately only in German language ), anlayzing consequences of the subprime crisis. At page 32 is a funny headline question ( translated ) :
"Have U.S. mortgage bankers been on drugs ?
http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_...00000218883.pdf
Quote from moonriver:
so what happens to your resting orders if price jumps your stop loss and/or limit target orders?
Quote from RedDuke:
They will be triggered depnding on what type of orders they are.
These moves today of 100s of points within minutes (there was around 150 points move within 5 minutes) make me want to trade so badly, but it is against my rules to trade when book is so thin and spread is unreasonable, so I am on side lines salivating.
Quote from RedDuke:
I am staying away. The depth is way too thin and the spread is constantly jumpimg to 4-5 ticks.
__________________
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Quote from Chuck Krug:
A bear mkt is officially defined as a 20% fall from a previous peak,
such
as was
seen in the DAX this morning at 6,500
However, by looking at the 9 bear markets we have seen since April
1970,
and
using the DAX as our model, it is possible to see that mkts continue
very
poorly
after entering a bear phase. In fact it is an average of 10 months and
minus
25% of performance until the bottom is achieved. See below
Date of entry into bear No. of months til bottom Index move
to bottom
Apr 1970 19 -19.0%
July 1973 16 -18.6%
July 1986 19 -26.0%
Oct 1987 3 -22.0%
Aug 1990 5 -15.0%
Oct 1992 0 0.0%
Aug 1998 1 -19.0%
Mar 2001 24 -63.0%
Quote from moonriver:
Thanks,
let me just clarify this,
so if it jumps a target limit order, it will be filled at the limit?
A stop order (which should be native, right?) will be filled at (stop) market?
So stop orders or limit orders don't have to be traded thru/ touched?
It makes me feel inadequate and frustrated, to watch all these points go by, and not a single one is mine
At the opening, after the initial drop and the very small consolidation, i had my finger on the button to sell, but somehow failed to press it...that went on for two hours....
Fibs, pivot points, oscilators and S/R have worked the same as any other time...just a LOT faster and with huge ranges....
one of you mentioned salivating...i had to put a bucket under my chair
Does that show trading inmaturity, or is it something that most of you expirienced traders went through as well ?
Hi Baron193,
I would say it shows maturity. All these moves looked great onn charts, but reality is a bit different. The speed, spread and slipage could have killed positions before they went into green. The only way to trade intra day on such days is to increase size of stop loss by a lot, but as we all know it can easily play both ways.
Markets will be here tomorrow and the following day. We are here to trade amd make $ consistantly, and staying out on days like these is the right thing for most of us.
Regards,
redduke
Thank you Redduke, it makes sense....
Short off 1 min
-4
Long off 1 min
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-1
I will be trading ES for now, fDAX is just way too yoyo for my liking again
__________________
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JSS it will go down at least 6740..
Quote from younouss:
JSS it will go down at least 6740..
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
This environment is way too hot for me, when we get average 10 pts oscillation within a minute Jeez!
I know what you mean...
I know, I am going to have a cup of tea & wait for a divergence or something
__________________
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Quote from RedDuke:
I am not sure about stop limits since I do not use them. I have mine as stop market orders, so it always gets me out sometimes with small slippage. Obviously on days like today you can easily get killed with market orders.
I would guess that if you have stop limit on exchange, and the price trades through it, you might still be in position.
Also some exchanges do not even support stop market, what they do instead is stop limit with very large brackets, so it acts like stop market.
This morning was incredible to watch, and I guess for brave ones to trade.
Regards,
redduke
Quote from younouss:
JSS it will go down at least 6740..
Another morning where I could not trade. I just could not believe how thin the book got and stayed and the spread. I just looked at YM and ER and they look slightly better.
Quote from moonriver:
Thanks again redduke,
but what I'm trying to get at is if it jumps over your resting order, which such wide spreads, that it does NOT trade thru or touch your order, let it be a limit order or a stop loss order.
Will it be filled at all?
I love volatilty. I love panic. I love my DAX !
Have you guys seen the story on Societe General $7.16 loss caused by illegal actions of their Paris based trader?
__________________
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JSSPMK> Do you have a link?
here's a link to the Bloomberg coverage of the new Nick Leason story
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...NRRE&refer=home
Quote from JSSPMK:
Have you guys seen the story on Societe General $7.16 loss caused by illegal actions of their Paris based trader?
Did anybody look at Euro Stoxx 50 during this week? Looking back on at the charts, it looks like it could have been traded this week instead of DAX. The moves were great and the book was probably thick enough since it usually trades over 1 mil contracts per day. The spread probably was also more manageble than DAX.
I remember looking at it a while back, it is pretty dull during normal times, though the volume is great. But what about times like this week, where most of us could not trade DAX?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=115578
JSSPMK
take a look at 60 MIN chart...looks like some good dip buying going on in FDAX, or ?
Is anyone back to trading DAX? I am planning to try tomorrow if things look normal.
Also, how about my prior question about switching to Stoxx 50 during such times?
Quote from RedDuke:
Is anyone back to trading DAX? I am planning to try tomorrow if things look normal.
Also, how about my prior question about switching to Stoxx 50 during such times?
Quote from ASusilovic:
I think you already observed relative steadiness of Stoxx 50 in relation to FDAX. So, move on trading it !
And why "back" in FDAX ? I did not stop because of the little Vola occuring....
I am trading ES for the time being, vola still too mucho for my stop levels, ES is excellent right now for me.
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
I am trading ES for the time being, vola still too mucho for my stop levels, ES is excellent right now for me.
Quote from RedDuke:
Any reason why you prefer ES to Euro Stoxx 50?
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from RedDuke:
Is anyone back to trading DAX? I am planning to try tomorrow if things look normal.
Also, how about my prior question about switching to Stoxx 50 during such times?
Quote from shaked:
Hi RedDuke
I started yesterday during the cash hours, I think we will still see some strong vola but as i wrote last week, Imo it was a CAPITULATION and i hope vola will get back to " normal "
My assumption for this week :
we may see 7050 area in FDAX....if uncle BEN lets the tap run....if not, well, Hasta La Vista companeros !
I am off this week and spending a nice time at the beaches of Barbados....
Drive "safely" on the left....ha, ha, ha...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Must tell you, I have been bored from from March 2003 until June 2007 !
Finally, we got some "real" fun in the markets...although I am not averse to a good trendfollowing "meal" - always a good brunch...
Long off 1 + S1
Scaled out +9
1/3 +31
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Quote from ASusilovic:
Best indicator for a selloff in the US is the OEX PCR Ratio. As of yesterday it stays at 3,85. Therefore :
Look for the DOW and ES to correct today massively -> DAX will fall too, hard.
Take a look at the Put-Call-Ratio :
05/15/2007, 839166, 1131113, 1970279, 1.35
05/16/2007, 932992, 1352961, 2285953, 1.45
05/17/2007, 905016, 1099667, 2004683, 1.22
05/18/2007, 686096, 1435048, 2121144, 2.09
05/21/2007, 573064, 1148792, 1721856, 2.00
05/22/2007, 316277, 1218500, 1534777, 3.85
Good luck !
Long off 1
Scaled out +8.5
1/3 -2
Might slide on a triple D on 1
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Long off 1 + S1
Scaled out +9
1/3 +31
Quote from shaked:
Nice trade, i looked at 3 diffrent sources and there are some diffrences in the values of yesterday's high-low-close.
Yesterday i was filled at 6860 while 1 source write the low as 6864 !!!
I found the daily S1 in 6876.5...
Wish you all a nice and proffit day.
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
TY!
My S1 shows 6879.3, now I couldn't have possibly gone long there, what I meant to say "off S1" is price bounced near S1 & I picked it up when histo started reverting.
Hehe, 1 as in 1 minute It did slide a bit
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Hehe, 1 as in 1 minute
I will be interested near S2 now, if we get there of course (I got 6813.7)
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
I will be interested near S2 now, if we get there of course (I got 6813.7)
To me that's close enough as ImE these levels are approximate support resistance zones, so I look at how histo is behaving near thereabouts.
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Looks like they might be walking price up to the FED & ImO good odds in that case of looking out for a short near that time, but we'll see. All the best to all!
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Looks like they might be walking price up to the FED & ImO good odds in that case of looking out for a short near that time, but we'll see. All the best to all!
Quote from Topsurfi:
I think we get 50points cut and a 2 Minute pop followed by a short sell off and then we rally the rest of the day to 1390 ES.
Quote from ASusilovic:
If only uncle Ackman from hedge fund firm Pershing Square Capital Management wouldn´t have commented on bond insurers....
Long from 6782.5 off 2 min formation, best to all!
Yesterday was absolutely wicked, traded pre-FED p/a off multi time frame charts and got a substantial part of that price lift into the announcement, traded via ES (charts in ES Journal).
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1/3 +43.5 as 2 min starting to diverge
Long gold off 5
Scaled out of the gold Long for $2.5 and change gain
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Quote from JSSPMK:
1/3 +43.5 as 2 min starting to diverge
Long gold off 5
Scaled out of the gold Long for $2.5 and change gain
Quote from shaked:
Very nice trade, i waited at daily S1 ( i got 6820 ) and stoped -10.
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
TY! I have my S1 at 6757 and the reason that is because I use 24hr data which is not entirely 'true' AH as it is marked to other markets (mainly US), though I must admit that way I somehow get a broader picture as there is correlation in todays' markets, so whenever you are getting a gap on your chart, mine doesn't have it. That leads on quite a few occasions me being able to see a divergence setting up pre-RTH which is one of the best indications that an RTH price gap is about to be closed (ImO).
My pivotal is at 6887, OK it could be coincidental today but price did "plummet" when price went through 6887 at 9.40am
Long off 5 min chart
Scaled out +11.5
Would be nice to see price near pivotal
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1/3 +26.5 don't like failures here
Gold looking mighty good here, now 30 min's put in a bullish pattern, would like to see re-test of highs
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Quote from JSSPMK:
1/3 +43.5 as 2 min starting to diverge
Long gold off 5
Scaled out of the gold Long for $2.5 and change gain
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Short Gold 1.26pm GMT off 1 min (H&S/diamond + declining MACD + 3 lower peak histo) & 240 min is bearish anyway
Stop above HOD
This is it, make it or break it, C'MON!!!
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Scaled out near 50% for +$2 and change, will post chart in a mo
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Visual
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Scaled out near 50% for +$2 and change, will post chart in a mo
Quote from JSSPMK:
Short Gold 1.26pm GMT off 1 min (H&S/diamond + declining MACD + 3 lower peak histo) & 240 min is bearish anyway
Stop above HOD
This is it, make it or break it, C'MON!!!
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Short off 7000
Scaled out +13.5
miniature DT?
YES
ImO if 10 min bar closes below 6976 we might head to 6937
Short Gold now also, stop about a buck
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Stopped out on Gold little over -.50c
fDAX short still open, but it doesn't look like it's going to give
1/3 b/e
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long fdax on previous high
STOPPED -22
LONG 6970
flat fdax...
Yesterday, I read a pretty disturbing headline :
Fed Says U.S. Banks Are Tightening Lending Standards
I can assure you that this kind of headline is definetely not good for any economy. Last time, I read this kind of headline in Germany 7 years ago, we went into recession....
Quote from ASusilovic:
Yesterday, I read a pretty disturbing headline :
Fed Says U.S. Banks Are Tightening Lending Standards
I can assure you that this kind of headline is definetely not good for any economy. Last time, I read this kind of headline in Germany 7 years ago, we went into recession....
Quote from Topsurfi:
but if you look at Libor rate the spread between it and the Fed rate has flattened which means that banks are not that suspisious against other banks any more. This means we should have the worst part of this crisis behind us.
Citigroup is also withdrawing its credit card facilities for 160,000 UK customers.
Grant.
Quote from Grant:
Citigroup is also withdrawing its credit card facilities for 160,000 UK customers.
Grant.
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
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JSPMK,
Well, consumers can’t used credit cards to pay off debt anymore.
As your interest is the DAX, there may be fireworks on Friday from Deutsche Bank, causing a ripple effect:
Tue 05/02/2008 07:37
FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) - Deutsche Bank AG could face a multi-bln-usd credit fallout if tycoon Harry Macklowe fails to refinance by Friday a loan from the bank used to invest in Manhattan real estate, Handelsblatt quoted sources close to the matter as saying.
Macklowe borrowed 5.8 bln usd from Germany's largest bank to acquire seven Manhattan office buildings early last year.
The debt is scheduled to come due at the end of the week but Macklowe has not yet managed to refinance it, according to the paper.
It said Deutsche Bank has taken effective control of the buildings, but added that it is questionable whether this collateral will fully cover the debt as the buildings' value has dropped over recent months.
Deutsche Bank declined to comment, the newspaper said.
A spokesman for Macklowe said negotiations with Deutsche Bank are currently underway.
Grant.
Quote from JSSPMK:
I think Egg (Pru) also, but what impact is that going to have on market?
I still standby DAX at 4000, don't ask when
Quote from ASusilovic:
We expect European profits to fall by 5.5% this year ex financials and 8% overall. Using both a top-down and bottom-up approach, we estimate the market is now fully discounting a profit recession, with about 75% probability ex financials. While the market is now at fair value, risks of an overshoot on ‘recoupling’ and financial fears remain high.
We expect profits to fall by 5.5% ex financials in 2008
While consensus profit expectations remain close to 10% growth this year, with rising margins, we have long argued that profits would be flat at best. Updating our top-down profit model for recent economics downgrades, leaves us with a forecast fall in net income pre exceptionals and goodwill of 5.3% ex financials (-7.8% for the total market). Profits would need to fall 17% to get back to the long-run trend; however, we believe mean reversion to long-run trend is unlikely given structural boosts from globalization.
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We may see lows of the day again...
Although we hit yesterday again the lows expected two days ago, I must admit that I am surprised as to the resilience of FDAX and U.S. markets...
Seems, we are range bound for the moment being.....
Nice range the last couple of days :
short 6870.00, long 6730.00....very nice "scalping" congestion...
Ready, Set, Go for range expansion
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Ready, Set, Go for range expansion
CHEERS
Quote from makloda:
CHEERS
Same procedure as last year, mam`?
Dinner for one
Seems FDAX doesn´t want to expand range....
Seems, markets are just waiting for the next piece of negative news...so far, financials did not dissapoint us...whenever we might think the worst is over, we receive another drop of sour headlines...AIG has been the last example of risk management the "American" way...funny enough Europeans and Asians aren´t even better...Credit Suisse surprised with a black result...WOW....
By the way : January was my second best month ever....
WTG AS!
Long Gold & ES at the mo
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Any take on spud wodka?
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Quote from JSSPMK:
WTG AS!
Long Gold & ES at the mo
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Quote from JSSPMK:
WTG AS!
Long Gold & ES at the mo
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Long Gold again, sidelines on ES/fDAX
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Out for a tiny gain, 3 failures, no lift this time, no confidence left in this trade
Short Gold after 4th lower peak
$1 Scale out
Reverse for Long off 3
__________________
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Quote from JSSPMK:
Out for a tiny gain, 3 failures, no lift this time, no confidence left in this trade
Short Gold after 4th lower peak
$1 Scale out
Reverse for Long off 3
__________________
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CDS report: “The size of the trades suggests it’s not speculation”
The cost of protecting European corporate debt jumped sharply higher on Friday as the market again buzzed with talk that structured products were being unwound.
People in the market said a bank had bought large amounts of protection in late morning, consistent with the liquidation of a structured product or the sudden hedging of a large amount of risk.
“The size of the trades suggests it’s not speculation,” said Mehernosh Engineer at BNP Paribas. While sudden unwinds have been expected by the market, news that they may now be going ahead nonetheless set nerves further on edge.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/200...ation%e2%80%9d/
Better to be prepared for some weekend surprises...
I like to be long here at 6915.00...
Holding onto 6950 long pos.
Take some positions off the table...6961.00..waiting for 6972.00 test...
What for a surprise....little rally going on...
I love my DAX
Flat 7069.00...I think, I will enjoy later on some Premium Vodka....
Long 6939.00...
i also see bullish signs so far today
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Drilling deeper into the credit and equity de-coupling
There has been a sharp differentiation in equity and credit market performance since the end of January, even as credit has rallied slightly over the past couple of days. We have drilled down into the performance of the two asset classes to determine whether the disconnect at the index level is driven by differences at the sector or single-stock level, or whether it is more broad based.
Some sectors more disconnected than others
Overall, moves in credit and equity market at the sector level have been largely uncorrelated over the past month. The largest disconnects between credit and equity markets seem most apparent in cyclical areas of the market such as Oil & Gas, Basic Resources and Capital Goods where spreads have widened significantly and equity prices have risen.
And it's not just an index effect
Much has been said of the technical drivers of the recent sell-off and the forced selling of the iTraxx Main index. While widening has been more pronounced for those companies that are in the iTraxx Main Index, indicating technical factors are having an effect, spreads have also widened substantially for IG companies not in the index.
Drilling down further to the firm level
We have screened the market for where there has been a large degree of de-coupling and there is downside to equity prices based on our analysts’ price targets.
Hi Guys,
How often do you see DAX spread of 3 ticks? I see it at least 10 times during each hour, it is more often, but let's say 10 times. It stays like this for very short period, but it is there. I was recently told, that such spread should not exibit on DAX, but is is there on 3 different independant feeds that I have?
Thanks,
redduke
Quote from RedDuke:
Hi Guys,
How often do you see DAX spread of 3 ticks? I see it at least 10 times during each hour, it is more often, but let's say 10 times. It stays like this for very short period, but it is there. I was recently told, that such spread should not exibit on DAX, but is is there on 3 different independant feeds that I have?
Thanks,
redduke
I have seen up to something like 8-9, but not often tho.
That is what I see as well. 3 ticks spread does happen a lot during trading session.
2007 results have come in better than expected
Close to 60% of DJ Stoxx 600 companies have reported full-year results. So far, 23% of companies have positively surprised by more than one standard deviation, and 11% have negatively surprised. The average surprise has been +1.2%. On an absolute basis, 55% of companies have beaten estimates and 43% have missed, which is slightly better than the historical averages of 53% and 46%, respectively.
On a sector basis, the strongest results have been in Travel & Leisure, Media and Financial Services. Retail companies have also posted strong results thus far, but a majority still has to report earnings in upcoming weeks. The most negative results have been in Basic Resources, Chemicals, and Industrial Goods & Services.
But negative revisions continue to drive sector performance
Consensus EPS estimates for 2008 have fallen 3% and 2008 growth has been revised down to 8% from close to 10% at the beginning of the year. Our top-down model suggests growth of -8%, implying that further negative revisions are likely. The most negative revisions have been in Technology (-8%), Banks (-6%), and Travel & Leisure (-5%). The only positive revisions have been in the Chemicals sector.
There has been an inverse relationship between 2007 surprises and revisions to 2008 estimates. This is surprising, as we would expect a positive relationship. Generally, stronger results are extrapolated to the future.
Thus far, the sectors with the strongest results have also been the sectors with the most negative revisions. Revisions to 2008 consensus estimates, a forward-looking measure, appear to be a better predictor of performance than surprises based on 2007 estimates, a backward-looking measure.
Long 6519...expecting at least 6577....
Quote from ASusilovic:
Long 6519...expecting at least 6577....
Quote from younouss:
Hi
Am expecting some short squeeze next week... But will wait for a crystal clear signal!
Quote from Topsurfi:
avoiding short positions now.
Fed rates are 160 points behind 3month rates so FED can lower rates by 150 points and is still behind the curve.
A surprise 75point rate cut can happen any time now.
Buying FDAX 6500.00 ...prepared to buy more...dynamic hedge in place....
Target : 6603...at least .....
Quote from ASusilovic:
Buying FDAX 6500.00 ...prepared to buy more...dynamic hedge in place....
Target : 6603...at least .....
Just to recall people what dynamic hedging means :
http://finance.wharton.upenn.edu/~b.../mma/MiER71.pdf
Dynamic Hedging Strategies
In this article, the authors use the Black-Scholes option pricing model to
simulate hedging strategies for portfolios of derivatives and other assets.
by Simon Benninga and Zvi Wiener
When do you guys roll into June?
Thanks
Quote from moonriver:
When do you guys roll into June?
Thanks
Quote from RedDuke:
Hi Guys,
How often do you see DAX spread of 3 ticks? I see it at least 10 times during each hour, it is more often, but let's say 10 times. It stays like this for very short period, but it is there. I was recently told, that such spread should not exibit on DAX, but is is there on 3 different independant feeds that I have?
Thanks,
redduke
Quote from RedDuke:
There was one reply to this question. Does anyone else sees this?
Thanks,
redduke
Whilst the bank sector has underperformed over the past few months, history would suggest that the sector is likely to underperform for a prolonged period even when the market eventually recovers. In the attached Strategy Matters we discuss the reasons why, the main points are:
Underperformance by the banks likely to be long-lasting
The underperformance of the banks in our view reflects a fall from unsustainable levels of earnings growth and market capitalization. History shows that a sector at the heart of a bubble tends to enjoy a brief bounce when the market hits a trough but then tends to revert to underperformance for several years as return on capital falls
Banks earnings reverting to trend
Banks outperformed the DJ Stoxx by 49% between 2000 and their relative peak in October 2006. The performance reflected a surge in profit growth which owed much to a rise in leverage, when the rest of the market was de-leveraging. This boosted the level of earnings in real terms to unsustainable levels. The trend rate of real earnings growth since 2000 has been an astonishing 7% but only 1.7% between 1973 and 2000. Earnings would need to fall 56% to get back to the pre 2000 trend – similar to other bubble-led sectors in the past.
Banks have been underperformers over the long run
The rise in banks share of market capitalization from c.8% in the early 1980s to over 20% recently owes much to an increase in issuance (until 2000) rather than relative performance. Indeed, banks have tended to underperform over the long run as profits have grown less than GDP.
Bubble sectors underperform long after the market troughs
History shows that sectors at the heart of a financial bubble tend to underperform the market sharply as the bubble bursts. Although they typically enjoy a brief period of outperformance at the trough of the market, they tend to reassert their trend of underperformance for several years thereafter. We look at the pattern following the “Nifty Fifty” bubble, the Japanese real estate and bank bubbles and the technology bubble.
We remain Underweight banks
We continue to Underweight the banks sector and believe that large scale recapitalizations will be required for it – and the broader market – to recover. While banks are likely to experience a temporary sharp bounce, helping the market turn higher later this year, they are likely to resume underperforming thereafter in our view, as a return to traditional business models generates much lower returns for a prolonged period.
I have just watched several youtube videos (search for dax scalping) where market depth was displayed and the market moved fast. For the most part the spread there was 1 tick, sometimes it was 2 ticks for very brief moments. I have 3 feeds currently: x_trader, zen-fire and esignal and all of the them display larger spreads with seeing 3 ticks all the time. And seeing 1-2 ticks about equally.
Not sure what to make of it???
Quote from RedDuke:
I have just watched several youtube videos (search for dax scalping) where market depth was displayed and the market moved fast. For the most part the spread there was 1 tick, sometimes it was 2 ticks for very brief moments. I have 3 feeds currently: x_trader, zen-fire and esignal and all of the them display larger spreads with seeing 3 ticks all the time. And seeing 1-2 ticks about equally.
Not sure what to make of it???
Hi ASusilovic,
So, how can we get the best quotes with tightest spread?
Regards,
redduke
Quote from RedDuke:
Hi ASusilovic,
So, how can we get the best quotes with tightest spread?
Regards,
redduke
Short here off 30/5 off R, I am after your hedge AS
-7
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Short again off 3
-8.5
Re-entered
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
ASusilovic,
So does it mean that MM see different order book than us? When they make the market we should see all their orders if they are within 10 best bids and asks, aren't we? And if this is the case, how come the spread is wider for us?
Thanks,
redduke
I think, I like to be FDAX long 6312.00...
Closing FDAX 6610.50.... I like my DAX !
I like to be long FDAX 6511.00...
And by the way :
dynamic hedge in place ....
Little bit profit taking 6604.00....
Short 6819.00....
Short FDAX 6886.00....
Covering shorts....long FDAX 6817.00....
Long FDAX 6686.00...prepared to buy more....dynamic hedge in place....
Long FDAX 6713.00....
I am a little bit bored about the markets recently....everybody who is not hedged until now and has not anticipated a recession in the U.S. must be blamed for not responding to the situation that the media and macro economists want to believe us...
Doesn´t matter, I am hedged and just waiting for the rally to start that will develop until U.S. election days come nearer....
Have a nice day !
Rally started way too early....It´s April, not July !
Today Long from 6781
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from ASusilovic:
Long FDAX 6686.00...prepared to buy more....dynamic hedge in place....
Long FDAX 6723.5
Out FDAX 6759
Quote from JSSPMK:
Today Long from 6781
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Long FDAX 6875.5
Quote from Mitch83:
Long FDAX 6875.5
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Quick Q: If you are buying Hi, then ain't it better to buy upon a BO? TY!
Quote from c.chugani:
I haven't been following this thread from the beginning.
could you please explain how you implement this "dynamic hedge"?
Thanks in advance.
BOE doing its thang, you probably heard already about £50bn injections, now we have to wait for the FED to do a similar move
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Short FDAX 6973.00...
Expect earnings downgrades to impact equities short-term
We expect consensus numbers to be revised down in all regions as companies get hit by higher costs and lower top-line growth. This should cap near-term upside in the US, Europe and Asia.
Shorting Dax at 7740
Hey guys My name is Christian and I am from Singapore. I was intrested in Eurex Trading and Forex trading as well. I am very new to trading and was wondering if someone can give me tips and pointers. I wasn't sure which way to go because I was also thinking about trading the NYSE. Maybe someone can help tell me which is the better way to go Eurex, Forex, NYSE. This is because I am not in the U.S. and I am not sure how trading the NYSE and Forex works out for people abroad. Is there anybody here who is not in the US and trades the NYSE or the Forex markets i would really appreciate if you could tell me your experience
Short FDAX 7071.50...ready to sell more...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Short FDAX 7071.50...ready to sell more...
Short FDAX 7070.5
Quote from makloda:
Quote from Alexandre:
7070 or even 7080 are you good shorting entry points.
Just 2 questions:
1/ what do you think of US futures bid up, is it a fake?
2/ what do you think the ECB will do and will that have an impact?
thx
Out @7064
Maybe Dr. Weber can give Trichet a new haircut.
Quote from ASusilovic:
Trichet looks like he´s in urgent need of a coiffeur....
Quote from ASusilovic:
1) Fake, otherwise I wouldn´t be short.
2) ECB will stay on hold with a hawkish bias. Inflation way over target.
Introducing myself - Study of global futures
Hello guys, I'm a trader from Brazil, I trade futures here and after observing the global markets (ES, YM, FDAX, FTSE100) from the beginning of this year I realized that it is much 'easier' to trade the FDAX, it seems to me the most technical market among those above, including IBOVESPA futures down here, and besides the software to operate futures is much better, I can just put my orders with my targets and stops before entering the heat of the market, being rid of any emotional decision...
Here in Brazil we just can not do that, we must tell the broker at the time we want to enter/leave a position, so it makes it very hard to close a trade...
Well now that is history as I'm trading the fdax and from tomorrow I will start posting some of my trades here in this forum, hoping to learn more with you guys.
I usually trade swing and position, but sometimes I try a daytrade with short stop (usually 5~10 ticks max) on an intraday support/resistance.
Good luck to all!
As much I like sleeping in the night, in US, the Dax is so much better than either ES or ER2 I may have to switch. Even with a now lower tick value it's commissions are much lower with my broker than anything North American. I just wish you could enter on stop limit like Globex.
Earnings downgrades create short-term risks to the downside
However, a passing of the worst part of the credit crunch does not mean that we have passed the worst part of the economic and earnings cycle. We continue to expect earnings disappointments to drive earnings revisions lower. Higher oil prices are an additional risk to margins in an environment where the growth/inflation mix is deteriorating, raising the short term risk to the downside. Experience in the early 1980s and 1990s suggests that markets can be “range-bound” for prolonged periods around profit downturns. We do not expect the market to break out of the trading range on the upside before the end of this year, roughly six months before a likely acceleration of earnings growth.
We recommend hedging the downside risks
Implied volatility is down dramatically over the past month, creating an opportunity to hedge. Our Options team suggests buying digital puts which pay off if the Euro Stoxx 50 closes below 3,700 in three months. These offer a better return than vanilla puts if the market falls within our range
Short FDAX 7106.00...ready to sell more
Short FDAX 7103.00 again today....
Gone Short
Short FDAX 7130.00
STOP 7145
Target half position 7090
Short FDAX
Closed half @ 7120
Re: Gone Short
Quote from Renah:
Short FDAX 7130.00
STOP 7145
Closed half position 7120
Positions closed
Well, this is supposed to be a daytrade, so it is over for today:
closed at 7118
A nice 11 points profit for today.
Have a good night.
Short FDAX
SHORT FDAX @ 7145
STOP @ 7153,5
Re: Short FDAX
Quote from Renah:
SHORT FDAX @ 7145
STOP @ 7153,5
That's all for today!
Covered the other half @ 7133
A nice 14,5 points for the day.
Enjoy life! Take it easy.
FDAX short 7159.00...and buying some call options...Just wait and see when the market will melt down...think just a matter of time...
Hopefully not a .. melt up
too many people expecting a melt down is usually a nice contrarain indicator
Quote from Manni:
too many people expecting a melt down is usually a nice contrarain indicator
Hello all!
ImPO, just looking at average price oscillation parameters I see downside potential which at the moment is more visually evident than upside, no doubt price may & probably will go higher, but there are 2 significant obstacles looking at ES (sorry), 200 average & price normally oscillates from lower to higher to lower, etc. Right now we have an upward oscillation nearing 200 average. I always look for classic usage of support & resistance i.e. sell R & buy S. Monthly charts, both DAX & SPX, remain bearish ImPO, we have an upward oscillation very close to 200 average. What do we do? Well......................I will have a cup of tea right now.
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Cha was nice
Right, long 3 off 1
-1.5
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Long 3 off 2 & 23.6%
scaled out 2 +9
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Quote from JSSPMK:
Long 3 off 2 & 23.6%
scaled out 2 +9
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
3rd +55.5, couldn't resist
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Short 3 off 3
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Closing some FDAX 7069.00....waiting for another short opportunity
Waiting for target 6953.00...
Company outlook statements show that management teams are reasonably optimistic about the earnings outlook for the rest of this year. They cite emerging-markets growth and pricing power as positive contributors to earnings growth, but acknowledge that there will be pressures from input costs and currency fluctuations.
Management teams say...
We reviewed the 1Q2008 earnings transcripts of the largest companies in each sector of the DJ Stoxx 600 to assess the anecdotal evidence on the economic picture, pricing trends, cost pressures and major themes.
Earnings growth to continue, albeit at a slower rate
In general, managements still appeared to be fairly bullish on growth rates this year; however, they did strike a slightly more cautious tone than in the last quarter. Some companies acknowledged that they are seeing a slight slowdown, particularly in the US and Western Europe. While consensus earnings estimates have been revised down 6% year-to-date (2% ex-Financials), growth is still expected to be 4% (9% ex-Financials). Our top-down forecast is for a decline of 12% and, as a result, we continue to believe there may be disappointments later this year.
Positive drivers: Emerging markets & pricing power
Emerging markets remain one of the key drivers of growth. The breadth of companies citing this strength was surprising, from obvious beneficiaries such as Energy and Industrials to less obvious gainers, such as Telecom and Health Care. Pricing power was cited as a positive driver of growth.
But negative headwinds: Input-cost pressures & currency impact
It was hard for companies to ignore the rising price of commodities, and many mentioned that they were feeling the pressure. In addition, the appreciation of the euro this quarter led many companies to report lower results than would have been the case on a constant currency basis
Comparing Europe to the US: Major differences in outlooks
In general, US companies were more cautious. First quarter calls spotlight a weak US economy and struggling consumer, and also that capital-usage policies are increasingly conservative.
Closing FDAX positions 6955.00...
Long FDAX
gone LONG FDAX @ 6963
STOP @ 6947,5
exiting at MOC.
that was a nice trade ASusilovic! Congratulations!
I wish I can stay long/short overnight in the near future
Good luck to all!
AS, does you hedge fund buy individual stocks, if so, perhaps you will be interested to have a look & comment here, TY! Hope all is well, long time no speak.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=127675
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
Re: Long FDAX
Quote from Renah:
gone LONG FDAX @ 6963
STOP @ 6947,5
exiting at MOC.
We may see a bounce over here....depends on the data releases today...but players prepared for showdown at 4 p. m. CET
I am mildly long over here...narrow stops
Quote from ASusilovic:
We may see a bounce over here....depends on the data releases today...but players prepared for showdown at 4 p. m. CET
I am mildly long over here...narrow stops
I think, I like to short 7062.00...bying some calls...target 6820....
Short FDAX 7088.00...
Closing some FDAX 6958.00...
Always good to implement dynamic hedge...always good to close FDAX shorts at 6820.00...
Quote from ASusilovic:
Always good to implement dynamic hedge...always good to close FDAX shorts at 6820.00...
honestly...the DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx are 2 of the best trading contracts out there...please tell me how I could be wrong with this...perhaps the DAX is the BEST and DJ Euro Stoxx is second best and on another note...Crude Oil (large contract) is just as great...go ahead show your support or disagreement...thanks...
Long FDAX 6688.00....ready to buy more....
Time to take some profits....sold FDAX 6808.00
We prefer large caps (ex-financials) to small caps. Small caps are more vulnerable to higher inflation and lower economic growth, in our view, and they trade at a premium to the large caps.
Rising costs and inflation bite into small-cap performance
We believe small caps will struggle to maintain margins in the face of higher input cost inflation and slowing economic growth. Larger caps should be less affected as they tend to have more pricing power and operate in more defensive sectors; there is also a greater proportion of commodity-related stocks in the large-cap indices. Inflation and higher interest rates are also bad for small and mid caps as they raise the cost of funding, which reduces their attractiveness as potential targets.
Large caps continue to trade at a discount
On a simple forward P/E basis, large caps are trading on 10.1x versus small caps on 11.6x. In some ways this is unusual – in previous economic downturns (2002/03 and 1991/92) large caps traded at a premium. Small caps are currently trading at a premium to their multiple in the early 1990s recession whereas large caps are at a discount to where they traded at that time. Large-cap stocks also tend to have a higher dividend yield and stronger balance sheets – both helpful attributes given that the upside risk to rates and inflation remains high.
DAX ugly again. -2.3% in the morning.
Ugly Germans = Ugly DAX I guess
Quote from makloda:
DAX ugly again. -2.3% in the morning.
Quote from makloda:
DAX ugly again. -2.3% in the morning.
Ugly Germans = Ugly DAX I guess
Time for some profi taking 6614.00...
Hi guys,
I am a new member in the forum but I have been reading many posts and would like to join this thread.
I am new in Dax Futures Tarding and enjoy very much.
Thank to all of you especially to ASusilovic, Renah, Makloda and the rest of members to keep this topic so active so new members like me can learn faster.
Thanks once again!
Warm Regards from Spain.
__________________
Gul
Spain
Quote from Gul:
Hi guys,
I am a new member in the forum but I have been reading many posts and would like to join this thread.
I am new in Dax Futures Tarding and enjoy very much.
Thank to all of you especially to ASusilovic, Renah, Makloda and the rest of members to keep this topic so active so new members like me can learn faster.
Thanks once again!
Warm Regards from Spain.
Quote from Renah:
Welcome and good luck on your FDAX trades Gul!
It is always delightful to take profits in Euros, the problem is when we lose.
!que viengan los rusos!
__________________
Gul
Spain
Quote from Renah:
Welcome and good luck on your FDAX trades Gul!
It is always delightful to take profits in Euros, the problem is when we lose.
!que viengan los rusos!
Quote from ASusilovic:
I think the Russians do not like anymore the Spanish real estate market...
Losing money with the FDAX ? Not possible ! There is so much to earn with this contract. You just have to know the market for 17 years then you will have an edge....
Long in FDAX
Hi,
Long in FDAX at 6640 closed at 6650.
Gul
__________________
Gul
Spain
Long again
Long again at 6652
__________________
Gul
Spain
Quote from ASusilovic:
I think the Russians do not like anymore the Spanish real estate market...
Losing money with the FDAX ? Not possible ! There is so much to earn with this contract. You just have to know the market for 17 years then you will have an edge....
Thanks God I closed my FDAX on time with some befefit had a downfall later!
Yes its good to know what software you use or good brokers for FDAX.
__________________
Gul
Spain
What software do you use now Gul and where do you trade from in Spain?
I trade through a brokerage firm in Chicago but want to open a second account in Europe for my SWING trades and only daytrade through Chicago, or maybe the opposite depending on cost per contract and quickness in filling the orders.
Good trading to all.
Good morning everybody.
Good morning everybody and wish you happy trading.
Went short this morning in FDAX did quite well!
__________________
Gul
Spain
Ugly DAXling
There is only one answer for the ugly DAX =>
Long FDAX 6505.50 ( first target : 6589.00...ready to buy more ! Expecting ES 1304-1308..area
Quote from ASusilovic:
There is only one answer for the ugly DAX =>
Long FDAX 6505.50 ( first target : 6589.00...ready to buy more ! Expecting ES 1304-1308..area
__________________
Gul
Spain
Are you buying more FDAX???
YES.
Since the initial sharp falls in January, our view has been that the European market would trade in a ‘fat and flat’ range. Our analysis suggests that the market offers sufficient valuation support at current levels. There is, of course, a possibility that the market could fall further, but in our view this would need incremental bad news that is not yet priced in. We would recommend buying the market at these levels, particularly if simultaneously hedging the downside tail risk with deep out-of-the-money puts .
What? GS must mean SELLING deep out of the money puts
Quote from ASusilovic:
particularly if simultaneously hedging the downside tail risk with deep out-of-the-money puts .
I think 6525-6540 might be a good area to realize some profits...
Another morning, another panic in the DAX
Quote from makloda:
Another morning, another panic in the DAX
Quote from ASusilovic:
Panic is always a good entry for some decent long positions....hehe
__________________
Gul
Spain
Results weak, outlook bleak
More companies have missed estimates than have beaten them
Earnings results in Europe have come in below expectations since companies started reporting two weeks ago. With 53 companies having reported so far (34% of the total number we expect to analyze), 28% of companies beat consensus by more than 5%, while 40% missed by the same margin. On an absolute basis, 49% beat consensus and 49% missed. Results have been better for larger stocks. Basic Resources and Telecoms have had the weakest results relative to expectations. Few sectors stand out on the positive side. There are significant shortcomings of the analysis of quarterly earnings in Europe. We include in our analysis firms in which at least two analysts had estimates in I/B/E/S on July 15 and expect to analyze 155 companies over the course of the earnings season.
Estimates continue to come down
Over the past month, both 2008 and 2009 estimates have been revised down 2.1%. Year-to-date, 2008 consensus estimates have fallen 9.3% and 2009 estimates have fallen 6.6%, and growth is now expected to be 1.6% this year and 12% in 2009. We believe that consensus estimates for 2008 and 2009 remain too high. Our top-down estimate is for an earnings fall of 6% in 2008 and a further fall of 5% in 2009. Weakness in Financials has been offset by strength in Oil & Gas, Basic Resources and Chemicals.
The number of large negative surprises has dramatically increased
The number of large negative revisions has spiked in recent months. Over the last month, over 70 companies have had consensus expectations revised down by more than 5%. Negative revisions have been quite broad as well: two-thirds of the index had 2009 estimates revised down in July.
Results have been stronger in the US
So far, 259 companies have reported 2Q results (62% of total cap). 49% of companies reporting have beaten estimates (above the historical average of 45%) and 14% have missed estimates (versus the average of 14%).
So in your opinion what is going to be the trend at this moment of Dax?
Please let me know and thanks for the wonderful job you have done!
Gul
__________________
Gul
Spain
hi all
I'm buying dax 6290 and ready to buy some more 6270 and 6250.
Long stoxx 3280..
Quote from younouss:
hi all
I'm buying dax 6290 and ready to buy some more 6270 and 6250.
Long stoxx 3280..
US initial jobless claims came in better then expected. Look for a nice bounce in US markets until the release of unemployment figures at beginning of September....
U.S. Q2 GDP up 3.3% vs. 1.9% prev. est..
Any further comments needed ?
"The boy done good"- hang on mate wait for 5009.5- some big stops there in the sep future
Company outlook statements show management teams are concerned about a growth slowdown in the second half of the year. While emerging markets and pricing power have contributed positively to results, managements are still worried about commodity costs and currencies. Dividends and buybacks remain a focus of many companies.
Management teams say...
We reviewed the 2Q2008 earnings transcripts of the largest companies in each sector of the DJ Stoxx 600 to assess anecdotal evidence on the economic picture, pricing trends, cost pressures and major themes.
Growth in developed markets is slowing down
The majority of companies talked about an impending slowdown in world growth. The focus has shifted to Western Europe and, in particular, Spain. Some companies lowered guidance when they released results.
But emerging markets remain positive contributors
Emerging markets remain a key support for companies with regional diversification. Russia, Central/Eastern Europe and China were often cited as helping to offset weakness in the rest of the world.
Commodity costs & currencies hurt results, but may reverse in 3Q
Commodity cost pressures were extreme in the second quarter, and while some companies were able to increase prices, many still suffered from margin compression. A higher euro also hurt companies based on the continent. However, commodity prices have come down in recent weeks and European currencies have started to weaken. This may positively impact results in future quarters.
Companies are committed to returning capital to shareholders
Many companies remained committed to returning value to shareholders this quarter, in the form of both dividends and share buybacks. There appears to be little impact from the credit crunch on large-cap listed companies’ ability to raise debt financing.
Hi, all. Does anybody know from experience, how many contracts of FDAX are tradable without slippage?
TIA.
Credit concerns increase risk
The recent events in the financial world have again highlighted the issue of credit quality across the whole market. Our banks team believes banks still need to reduce the overall size of their balance sheets, which will mean both reduced lending and higher rates for borrowers. We believe companies that can internally finance growth and operations should outperform.
Recommend: Buy low leverage / Sell high leverage
Quote from ASusilovic:
Credit concerns increase risk
Recommend: Buy low leverage / Sell high leverage
You get full points for telling me things before they happen, not afterward. Michael Milken
Policy Power
A coordinated round of policy measures aimed at short-circuiting the liquidity squeeze has resulted in a sharp rally. Taken together, the measures are likely to be a crucial development by helping to alleviate counterparty risk fears that resulted in the collapse of the interbank markets and spikes in credit derivatives. Given that these financial stresses were related to the issue of banks’ “problem assets”, a resolution bank would help to restore banks’ capital positions and to prevent the vicious cycle of disorderly de-leveraging of financial sector balance sheets.
Normalised ERP justies 10% rally
Earlier this week, the level of risk appetite had plunged, and the ERP had reached 3.75%-4% based on an assumption that profits are 0 to -5% next year. The level of risk aversion has a profound impact on where equities trade. A pull back to 3.5%, coupled with our core assumption that profits fall by 5% in 2009 (after 6% this year) justifies a 10% rally from the low and a “fair value” for the SXXP of 290, slightly above the middle of our 250 to 310 “fat and flat” range.
Back to Fat and Flat
But we do not think that this marks the start of a sustained bull market. Uncertainties over the economic environment and the impact of bank de-leveraging on the pace of any recovery are likely to keep a cap on prices for a while yet. A fall back in profits to long-term trend since 1980 (a further fall of 20%) and a mean reversion of margins and ROE would push the market back down again by around 10% even with a 3.5% ERP. While we think such a profit outcome is unlikely, further profit erosion into next year and an uncertain pace of recovery are likely to keep markets within the “fat and flat” range until the middle of 2009 in our view.
Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks lost $1.1 trillion in market value, oil plunged and Treasury bonds rallied after lawmakers rejected the Bush administration's $700 billion financial rescue.
1.1 trillion : 700 bn
Quote from JSSPMK:
Here is the visual
__________________
"TRADE WHAT YOU SEE" - Master Osorico
We might see 5513 today, but I am an aggressive buyer. Of course dynamic hedge in place....
mini DAX
Quote from baron193:
Hi all, i do not pretend to be a pro trader, i'm certainly not,
but i do have quite a bit of screen time on currency futures for the last 3 years, trading mini swings.
The problem with this style of trading is, it can get a bit boring, that's why i've been observing the DAX for the last 3 months.
This beast can certainly move!!!, i will start trading it live next week...see how long it takes to wipe my account out
Reading this thread has been helpfull and i extend a thank you
to the traders involved.
This quote from JSSPMK sounds familiar:
"My experiences up to now have progressed through 3 stages, 1st being - oh it's pretty simple (say bye to your money), 2nd - bloody hell I am confused here by sheer amount of information & 3rd - back to point 1, but this time it's a different 'simple', when you get to the stage of pattern recognition without having to think too h