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Posted by Buy1Sell2 on 10-26-06 04:44 PM:

Foolish Longs

I would like to mention a group of traders. These are the foolish longs. Let me explain what a foolish long (or short) is. This is the trader that is overextended and has held on without using a tight stop initially. (overextended and highly leveraged traders must use stops). Most retail /public traders are overextended and highly leveraged. He has already gone well past his 2 percent of portfolio stop guideline and is now looking at his summer vacation money, his kids college money and/or the next mortgage payment etc slipping away from him( or may have to tell the wife). He then sells his position and gets out just near the bottom. He has feared that he is in front of a freight train and the next move down will destroy him(or his wife will). Of course, he has been in front of a freight train all the time and because of the overextension, he has put himself in this position. He must get out. These foolish longs sell (humans are built the same, there are other foolish longs selling near the same time that he is), and when they sell, it creates the final downward thrust as the divergence traders eyeing the chart are preparing to buy in. Then the foolish longs watch the price retrace upwards as they watch their fresh short positions getting whacked and they hold on to those. And the cycle goes on and on.

Note: Nowhere in this discussion do I mention anything to do with fundamentals.

Posted by illiquid on 10-27-06 07:07 PM:

You need to rephrase this thread in "blanket" form

Posted by WD40 on 10-27-06 07:32 PM:

I always thought you were semi-incoherent.
This just confirmed you are fully incoherent.

Posted by Bitstream on 10-27-06 07:33 PM:

yeah biggest yawn of the day.

Posted by Buy1Sell2 on 10-28-06 06:28 PM:

Quote from WD40:

I always thought you were semi-incoherent.
This just confirmed you are fully incoherent.


Fully coherent here and very well thought out.

Posted by Bitstream on 10-28-06 06:38 PM:

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Fully coherent here and very well thought out.


u had the balls to criticize mschey for his 'arrogance' when the guy can eat rice in your head and has much more sound advice to offer than u. then u post this crap and the other thread about what's superior and what's inferior' that makes u look like a freak and arrogant beyond belief.

i have to give to u, at least u good at pattin' uself in the back.

Posted by Buy1Sell2 on 10-28-06 06:41 PM:

Quote from Bitstream:

u had the balls to criticize mschey for his 'arrogance' when the guy can eat rice in your head and has much more sound advice to offer than u. then u post this crap and the other thread about what's superior and what's inferior' that makes u look like a freak and arrogant beyond belief.

i have to give to u, at least u good at pattin' uself in the back.


I don't see how observing this group of traders makes me arrogant at all. Of course, I am not arrogant, I just use common sense.

Posted by Bitstream on 10-28-06 06:47 PM:

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I don't see how observing this group of traders makes me arrogant at all. Of course, I am not arrogant, I just use common sense.


your observation is nothin' short of statin' the obvious and another spin to promote your arbitrary kelly crap 2% stop rule. it's not the first post that is arrogant but the tons of replies u give to posters criticizing' u. i think i've seen it before...'my posts are very rich in value and represent decades of experience in the mkt...bla bla bla'.


whatever

Posted by ArbProfit on 10-28-06 06:50 PM:

Re: Foolish Longs

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I would like to mention a group of traders. These are the foolish longs. Let me explain what a foolish long (or short) is. This is the trader that is overextended and has held on without using a tight stop initially. (overextended and highly leveraged traders must use stops). Most retail /public traders are overextended and highly leveraged. He has already gone well past his 2 percent of portfolio stop guideline and is now looking at his summer vacation money, his kids college money and/or the next mortgage payment etc slipping away from him( or may have to tell the wife). He then sells his position and gets out just near the bottom. He has feared that he is in front of a freight train and the next move down will destroy him(or his wife will). Of course, he has been in front of a freight train all the time and because of the overextension, he has put himself in this position. He must get out. These foolish longs sell (humans are built the same, there are other foolish longs selling near the same time that he is), and when they sell, it creates the final downward thrust as the divergence traders eyeing the chart are preparing to buy in. Then the foolish longs watch the price retrace upwards as they watch their fresh short positions getting whacked and they hold on to those. And the cycle goes on and on.



Is this an observation or an autobiography?

Posted by Buy1Sell2 on 10-28-06 06:53 PM:

Quote from Bitstream:

your observation is nothing' short of stating' the obvious and another spin to promote your arbitrary kelly crap 2% stop rule. it's not the first post that is arrogant but the tons of replies u give to posters criticizing' u. i think i've seen it before...'my posts are very rich in value and represent decades of experience in the mkt...blau blau blau'.


whatever


The info that I present is for other less experienced traders or newbies benefit. It is intended for helpfulness not braggadocio. If that makes me arrogant, I accept the appellation.

Posted by Buy1Sell2 on 10-28-06 06:55 PM:

Re: Re: Foolish Longs

Quote from ArbProfit:

Is this an observation or an autobiography?


Both--my intial foray into the markets in the early 80's was a 40 percent loss of total liquid net worth.

Posted by nkhoi on 10-28-06 07:01 PM:

Re: Foolish Longs

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I would like to mention a group of traders. These are the foolish longs. ..
.


since they don't wear id tag 'Hello, I am the fool', how can you track them before they commit their foolish act.

Posted by Buy1Sell2 on 10-28-06 07:09 PM:

Re: Re: Foolish Longs

Quote from nkhoi:

since they don't wear id tag 'Hello, I am the fool', how can you track them before they commit their foolish act.


The hope would be that by mentioning the group, that some would be able to recognize their possible entry into the group and stop it accordingly.

Posted by JimmyJam on 10-28-06 07:15 PM:

Re: Re: Foolish Longs

Quote from nkhoi:

since they don't wear id tag 'Hello, I am the fool', how can you track them before they commit their foolish act.


.

__________________
If at first you don't succeed ...

Posted by austinp on 10-28-06 07:24 PM:

Longs are only foolish when they keep pressing upside into a downtrend. Right now, longs are printing money hand over fist. They will continue to do so until this crystal-clear uptrend ceases to persist.

At this moment in time, replace the word "longs" with "shorts" in OP and it 100% describes what is taking place right now

Posted by JimmyJam on 10-28-06 08:16 PM:

Quote from austinp:

At this moment in time, replace the word "longs" with "shorts" in OP and it 100% describes what is taking place right now


I was listening to the financial news last night and the comment was made that the reason forthe latest surge was a lot of SHORT COVERING.

While this may or maynot be true, it certainly seems that the more the shorts try to hold against the (obvious) and dominant trend ("and pick the top") the more thay are going to be gored. Looks like they thought the 1375-1380 range was the top ... and it looks like they were wrong.

JJ

BTW, I find it hard to the believe that 30% have never been a foolish long or short ...

__________________
If at first you don't succeed ...

Posted by Buy1Sell2 on 10-29-06 06:53 PM:

Quote from austinp:

Longs are only foolish when they keep pressing upside into a downtrend. Right now, longs are printing money hand over fist. They will continue to do so until this crystal-clear uptrend ceases to persist.

At this moment in time, replace the word "longs" with "shorts" in OP and it 100% describes what is taking place right now


I believe that I did post the word "short" in the original post austin. Thanks for pointing it out though. It is exactly what is happening(has happened) to some during this run up.

Posted by Buy1Sell2 on 11-04-06 07:05 PM:

I believe that many more than 50% are foolish longs. I myself have been one before. I suspect that numerous folks have gone through at least some of the characteristics of the foolish long.

Posted by Buy1Sell2 on 01-14-12 06:26 PM:

I would like to mention a group of traders. These are the foolish longs. Let me explain what a foolish long (or short) is. This is the trader that is overextended and has held on without using a tight stop initially. (overextended and highly leveraged traders must use stops). Most retail /public traders are overextended and highly leveraged. He has already gone well past his 2 percent of portfolio stop guideline and is now looking at his summer vacation money, his kids college money and/or the next mortgage payment etc slipping away from him( or may have to tell the wife). He then sells his position and gets out just near the bottom. He has feared that he is in front of a freight train and the next move down will destroy him(or his wife will). Of course, he has been in front of a freight train all the time and because of the overextension, he has put himself in this position. He must get out. These foolish longs sell (humans are built the same, there are other foolish longs selling near the same time that he is), and when they sell, it creates the final downward thrust as the divergence traders eyeing the chart are preparing to buy in. Then the foolish longs watch the price retrace upwards as they watch their fresh short positions getting whacked and they hold on to those. And the cycle goes on and on.

Note: Nowhere in this discussion do I mention anything to do with fundamentals.

Posted by Redneck on 01-14-12 06:34 PM:

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Note: Nowhere in this discussion do I mention anything to do with fundamentals.


B1

Unfortunately I must disagree (respectfully of course)

Your post reeks of the FUNDAMENTAL human condition each of us must overcome



jmho
RN

Posted by trader198 on 01-16-12 04:06 PM:

I do. plus I am a foolish short seller too.

particularly when I get a loser, i want to make sure next trade is a winner, so i jump on the exact top (thought to be upside breakup) to buy, then wait til to the exact bottom, I get out, and reverse become a short seller, then painfully watch it climb and put me in more red.

I do sometimes.

but you mean foolish, that is not. every thing has two sides. the wrong part here is not cut loss quickly when the breakthrough does not happen.

over the weekend, I told one of my church friend, I shorted natural gas at 2.625 at the historicaly low. he immediately barked back that is dangerous, it is too low and it dropped lot, watch out gap up.
i smile. whether gap up/or not, let's see this monday.

ha ha, now it is 2.540+, and struggling.... I am just foolish to short it over the weekend. neither i am smart, nor i am foolish, I am just lucky and i just do what I should do.

do not laugh at those people who keep buying natural gas or ung, when a new low printed, they buy, they thought it is a bottom, then another push down smashed them again, do not laugh at them, their mistake is not cut loss short or they are sturnborn to hold on to their belief: things go down will bounce.

they are not naive, they are just not lucky.

if someone picked INHX bottom at 10 over the weekend, you will say bottom picking is awesome. but that is just lucky. nor more than that.

so do not laugh at those people

Posted by atticus on 01-16-12 04:41 PM:

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I would like to mention a group of traders. These are the foolish longs. Let me explain what a foolish long (or short) is. This is the trader that is overextended and has held on without using a tight stop initially. (overextended and highly leveraged traders must use stops). Most retail /public traders are overextended and highly leveraged. He has already gone well past his 2 percent of portfolio stop guideline and is now looking at his summer vacation money, his kids college money and/or the next mortgage payment etc slipping away from him( or may have to tell the wife). He then sells his position and gets out just near the bottom. He has feared that he is in front of a freight train and the next move down will destroy him(or his wife will). Of course, he has been in front of a freight train all the time and because of the overextension, he has put himself in this position. He must get out. These foolish longs sell (humans are built the same, there are other foolish longs selling near the same time that he is), and when they sell, it creates the final downward thrust as the divergence traders eyeing the chart are preparing to buy in. Then the foolish longs watch the price retrace upwards as they watch their fresh short positions getting whacked and they hold on to those. And the cycle goes on and on.

Note: Nowhere in this discussion do I mention anything to do with fundamentals.


Wow, you bumped *this* after 5+ years?

Posted by Buy1Sell2 on 07-14-12 04:33 PM:

Quote from austinp:

Longs are only foolish when they keep pressing upside into a downtrend. Right now, longs are printing money hand over fist. They will continue to do so until this crystal-clear uptrend ceases to persist.

At this moment in time, replace the word "longs" with "shorts" in OP and it 100% describes what is taking place right now


Certainly can be both ways-- I agree entirely!

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