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Eur/USD
Short at 1.2050
Doesnt seem to be a lot of follow through here, on the long side.
Also, bearish divergance on the hourlies.
Added to my positional short at 1.2020
Looking for 1.1975
Stop is at days high 1.206
I agree with your shorts. WIth all the anticipation around the tech significant 1.2050 level I would have expected more 2 way action up there with option knokouts and such...somoe trying to protect and others trying to run it. ISM was a suprise that caught many off guard. I also went short at 1.2042 after the figs. Doing some fib retracements from yesterdays low or a bit lower if you use this weeks low I am looking for 1.1997 or 1.2005 then 1.1978 or 1.1988. If we stay offered below there then 1.1960 or 1.1972. Good luck. Beware of the crazy ivan to take out the 1.2052 highs though if was start to get back above 1.2035 ish. Be nimble
I think the retracement was just a bounce off the psychological 1.2000 level, it must retrace there again, i think.
Am looking at the GBP/USD, a 15min close below 1.7530 negates the recent upmove.
Who isn't short or would only go short at this point, besides those who were long from far below? I would take that into consideration.
I ended up taking back my all my shorts the first time down... 4 at 1.2005 and 4 lots at 1.2009 now I'll wait and see what happens at 1.2035 (upside continuation?) or 1.2010( another downside break?). Why dont you use a trailing stop to lock in some profits instead of risking the days highs. Always frustrating to turn a winner into a loser.
Cosed all out for 1.2020 for lack of follow through.
Am looking to short anywhere near the 1.2080 level, which is cast-iron resistance - cant see that going on the 1st attempt.
Did you short?
I wonder where "energytraderus" ran off to. The guy telling us the dollar was headed for the abyss again.
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Yeah I shorted sunday at 1.2080, and closed out at 1.2014. I guess I missed a big move. Oh well, I will learn for the future.
I think if you take regular profit of 40 pips, its better than waiting for a 150+pip move as the number of times you'd get stopped out isnt worth it.
Am looking to find a way back in.
Just shorted USD/JPY at 117.7, looking for 117.
Is it me or too many people short this thing (at least for this week)?
It just seems not to want to go down against the $. If you look at the £ today, it lost over 150 pips today, the Eur didnt. I think if it gets over 1.1925 today its a massive buy signal for next week.
Every bit of logic says be short - following cable and $ yen, but it cant go lower. Look at the euro crosses as well - eur£ and eurchf at the highs.
If this bounces above 1.1930 it could squeeze an awful lot of people out and be evil.
Time to go long with stop below today's lows.
However, if it breaks support it could be at 1.1700 by the end of next week.
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Forecast
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...408#post1007408
What do U guys think of this word file?
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KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Looking to short betwen 1.2085-1.2095, limit order on standby,
If you're shorting to get a pullback intraday, that's one thing. But in my opinion, the longer term here is UP. The winds are changing, look around you 
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I am holding short too, but it is getting painful. I think we are headed south.
Quote from Ivanovich:
If you're shorting to get a pullback intraday, that's one thing. But in my opinion, the longer term here is UP. The winds are changing, look around you
Raise my stop on the long suggested to 1.2009, locking in a minimum 124 pips.
short 1.2085
EUR/USD
Does anyone have a strong view where EUR/USD is going over the near term?
Down
EUR/USD
I agree, my trading system is currently short so during the day we will see lower prices. Thankss for your thoughts
BULL!
US CPI tame, housing starts down, 1.2100 critical resistance breached.
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Ok, but please don't all fade into the woodwork if it doesn't go down. I'd like to hear why you thought what you thought.
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Keep the faith
Really? What faith is that? I'm short the dollar on a few pairs.
Incidently, what is your stop since it just broke 1.2120?
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And there goes the year long downtrend line at 1.2135 (which incidently was the Fibo too). If it goes on from here, that down trend you referred to is...well...kaput.
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Stop is 121.85 i.e. 100pips. Dont believe in Fibonnaci.
I don't believe in isms. I only believe in me!
Good luck, hope that stop is not hit. I think you're safe for the moment. Might want to think about getting out from under that short in the lucky even the number comes back to your entry point.
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From IFR:
"London, March 16. The risk reversal curve"s topside strike premium has widened on the back of spot"s post-US CPI break above 1.2100. The 1mth 25 delta R/R is now 0.3/0.4 EUR calls over, with the 3mth 25 delta R/R 0.15/0.35 EC over last.
EUR calls in demand of late have included mid-dated 1.2300, 1.2400, 1.2500, 1.2600, and circa 1.2625 strikes"
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Still short, tomorrow is another day. NZD/USD is a better short at these levels though. Might add to my short here.
Don't be so sure of that.
The dollar turn around here is significant. EUR/USD just broke 1.2150 and still shows no sign of a breather. I'm out of my longs on it because I expect overbought conditions to begin to take toll. But clearly, the mold is changed.
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Still long from 1.1885 as advised earlier in thread.
Move stop profit up to 1.2113 - guaranteeing minimum 228 pips profit.
Advise you take profit now, Lon. An excellent trade, my friend. But this upmove is looking to run out of steam here with resistance @ 1.2160.
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Hey
Short at .21485
-Kastro
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Danger, Will Robinson! Danger!
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Hey
You think its going higher?
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Yes. And it is as we speak. But if you're only in it for intraday, you'll be safe as a pullback will almost definitely come. It's just that I expect them to be shallow, so don't short for long.
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Out. c'est la vie.
Quote from YeahIknow:
Stop is 121.85 i.e. 100pips. Dont believe in Fibonnaci.
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Quote from Ivanovich:
The dollar turn around here is significant. EUR/USD just broke 1.2150 and still shows no sign of a breather. I'm out of my longs on it because I expect overbought conditions to begin to take toll. But clearly, the mold is changed.
Headed for 1.2300 folks.
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Quote from achilles28:
No way, dude.
We're in a long term downtrend across the board on all majors (USD appreciation)
All we're witnessing now is a intermediate term pullback (weekly).
JUst my 2 cents.
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I also thought so...before March, 14...
ops...except "weekly" correction.
Still long from 1.1885. Move stop profit up to 1.2137.
Move stop profit uo to 1.2167
I'm calling a EUR/USD long term bottom. Watch out USD bulls.
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Long stopped out at 1.2167, for 282 pips profit.
Looks like the trend line is going to brake ,then the next stop is 1.28
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I think I can I think I can I think I can...
This EUR move is overdone, pure and simple. I'm not questioning the reasoning behind it's increase, I just think the speed of the increase especially on the crosses, is yet another example of market cattle stampeding. Have you seen the upmove in EUR/CHF? What the heck is supporting that? How about the insanity in EUR/AUD?
I tell ya, silly is in high season.
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short 1.2173 stop 1.222
Dangerous, but I think the 1.22 barrier should hold for now. But then again, what do I know?
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EUR/USD ITS LOOK LIKE DOWN?
Try decaf, Newbby
Yes, finally it looks as though it's taking a breather. Odds of 5% fed funds by year end have gone from 68% to 90%. That's giving some strength the buck (plus yields creeping back up).
Still waiting for some reasonable behavior to show - especially in EUR/AUD and EUR/CHF in order to reset some longs. Those crosses are in "stupid" level at the moment.
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Up and up...
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Jerry, please don't take this wrong or misinterpret my wording or intentions here as dissing you in any way, as, with all due respect there are zillions of different ways to view, see and interpret forex moves, but...
Quote from jerry11901:
Up and up...
Ex, that neck line is fine .Up and up –I was talking about last week action, trend on daily chart is up now.
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I think I can I think I can I think I can...
guys - am just catching up with mkt action after a short break - thks for bringing me up to speed with mkt sentiment etc on majors! when i left the other week, us rates were headed for 5%, euro perhaps 3% but its not like there is a string of good hard figures to make this so likely, therefore a big perhaps and still very $-positive as an investment magnet (and some carry trade attraction)... saw TB was bad, giving $-bears some strength, however NFSP not so bad (better than last but below 75bio avg) considering there's been loads of JPY purchasing / rebalancing lately...
wld you say there is still some strength to the recent eurusd upswing, a lot of strength, or we're about to reverse if we dont break above the monthly trendline?
today I am buying Eur/usd
for 1.2250
but IMO will drop from there to 1.1620
so for 2.5 months ...no Longs dudes
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KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Quote from 2cents:
wld you say there is still some strength to the recent eurusd upswing, a lot of strength, or we're about to reverse if we dont break above the monthly trendline?
Quote from achilles28:
IMO.
Long term bias is down (dollar appreciation), so on a confirmed move, one might consider piling it on.
A one or two day congestion around these points should be expected, i think.
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commenting is easy but... any views?
Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Whenever something breaks down in the short term and is at a bottom/reversal/top I see someone talking about how great/poor the long term trend is.
Quote from Ivanovich:
I'm just wondering what happened to this guy.
1.2250 to 1.1620 is targets range
GL
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KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
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Hey
Anyone else short eur/usd?
-Kastro
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1.2150
1.2120
1.2085 1.2195
1.2240
1.2275 top is forming with m/t mom cross lower, below 1.2150 sees losses accelerate, look for pullback to 1.2070/90, upside test if over 1.2200
Sticking my hand out to buy a few eur here, 1.2200 june futs.
short the 12350 april calls.
Buying EUR for next 24 hours
1.2120 to 1.210
pt around 1.2230
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Quote from Exchanges:
Trade closed @ 1.2127 for 15-pts scalped netting 1.66% of entire account capital balance. Thanks for your money, guys!
I'm good....
X
1.2190 by US open
IMO another down to possible 1.2050 over next 3 days
But wants this 1.2250 for some reason..
The crash is from there to possible 1.1820
and eventullay to 1.1620 over next 3 months
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http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
EURUSD
Possible Looking like this
NY EST
I am not sure tho
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KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Quote from Ivanovich:
Really? 1.40, eh? Can I quote you on that? What, 4 months?
Hehe...I don't mean I'm going to quote you for the Journal or CNBC. That's just a gutsy call all things considering.
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Ok, but I don't know how that means 1.40 - but ok.
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kalzayani,
Check the thread topic, mate. EUR/USD. I realize that KS's discussion revolved around the CHF, but it was more about the gutsy call than the CHF. Please stay on topic!
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Run this simulation on euro
24 hours
24*2 Orders
Pt with 9 pips
do all orders at the same time
Long Short
1.2121 1.2152
1.2124 1.2151
1.2123 1.2153
1.2125 1.2152
1.2124 1.2154
1.2125 1.2156
1.2127 1.2157
1.2124 1.2162
1.2128 1.2165
1.2128 1.2173
1.2144 1.2179
1.2134 1.2176
1.2129 1.2174
1.2137 1.2172
1.2133 1.2173
1.2129 1.2174
1.2134 1.2177
1.2133 1.2185
1.2135 1.2191
1.2089 1.2155
1.2075 1.2123
1.2086 1.2145
1.2087 1.2133
1.2079 1.2136
1.2081 1.2147
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http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
I have no idea how to read that.
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Something interesting is going to happen in 10 minutes...
Sell&short.
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Already have, mate.
OfmY, were you referring to the press conference? That's just Bush being a blowhard again and stating the usual crap.
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Hey
Still short - 83 pips+
-Kastro
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Ex, how many monitors are you using for trading?
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I think I can I think I can I think I can...
Cover&long. 1.2090, 1.2095 spot
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Quote from Ivanovich:
OfmY, were you referring to the press conference? That's just Bush being a blowhard again and stating the usual crap.
Shame on you, OfmY! - that rumor has been out for years. Circulates every so often...
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Ok-okey...I just don't want to wait the 1st April =)))
my friends are caught)
Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Cover&long. 1.2090, 1.2095 spot
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Quote from KS96:
Yes, you can quote me, I don't mind.
I don't know when.... end-of-May? June?
Stop just below the recent lows, so the risk is slim.
I am long with an average of around 1.29
That quick? You're bailing out of this call three days into it?
Doesn't say much for your long term predicition ability at this point, mate!
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Quote from Ivanovich:
That quick? You're bailing out of this call three days into it?
Doesn't say much for your long term predicition ability at this point, mate!
CLOSED
Just closed my short on EUR/USD
Short at: .21680
Took profit at: .19707
Did not put in many units because I had a tight stop on it, but still...
Looking to re-enter just above .1900
-Kastro
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Re: CLOSED
200-pts!
Quote from Kastro_316:
Just closed my short on EUR/USD
Short at: .21680
Took profit at: .19707
Did not put in many units because I had a tight stop on it, but still...
Looking to re-enter just above .1900
-Kastro
Re: Re: CLOSED
the teenagers are beating us old guys
Quote from Exchanges:
200-pts!
Good trade, Kastro! I don't think "pros" could do any better.
Great trader!
x
Re: Re: Re: CLOSED
Quote from ElectricSavant:
the teenagers are beating us old guys
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Re: CLOSED
Quote from Kastro_316:
Just closed my short on EUR/USD
Short at: .21680
Took profit at: .19707
Did not put in many units because I had a tight stop on it, but still...
Looking to re-enter just above .1900
-Kastro
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Quote from KS96:
I call it off... for now...
out @ 1.3085, +185.
You will have to un-quote me...
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nice trading exchanges
Re: Re: Re: CLOSED
Quote from Exchanges:
Truth be told, I closed two shorts today - totaled 90-pts profit thereabouts.
Opened another short @ 1.1962.
Go ahead, call me short-happy.
x
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Quote from OddTrader:
1.3085 unbelievable!
Re: CLOSED
Quote from Kastro_316:
Just closed my short on EUR/USD
Short at: .21680
Took profit at: .19707
Did not put in many units because I had a tight stop on it, but still...
Looking to re-enter just above .1900
-Kastro
__________________
Don't believe everything you think.
Tight stop means the stop is very close to the enter price. The trader realizes it's a risky trade, although the odds are slightly with him/her.
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Long 1.1979 spot.
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I would look for a long it approaches the 1.2020-1.2000 level.
Thanks, EZ.
Quote from Ezekiel:
nice trading exchanges
Quote from Ivanovich:
Tight stop means the stop is very close to the enter price. The trader realizes it's a risky trade, although the odds are slightly with him/her.
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Close at 1.2059. I think it will stall at resistance even after the run upward due to March IFO business climate index numbers and maybe money supply growth.
FOMC will weigh.
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It`s getting there...
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what is that chart telling you.....1.2250 next stop?
Quote from $$$lover:
what is that chart telling you.....1.2250 next stop?
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I think I can I think I can I think I can...
1.28?? Really? And when do you see that happening?
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Hey
Should be trying to head to .2200....
-Kastro
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I am short the dollar on EUR, AUD, CAD and YEN.
Mainly because of the New Moon. Always works.
If we do move up and get thru the 2040 area, I have
2114
2209
as next stops. My values change slightly at the end of each day so as time moves on they may change a tad.
If 2021 gives way.....I see next stops as
1969
1929
1873
Good luck and if you open your window, I will be howling at the NEW moon.
DRT
Everytime I step back and take a look at any longer term studies(more than 1 day) of the EURUSD, I come to the same conclusion.
Complete confusion.
Maybe its just me. I have a long term view, but I am not Gates, Soros or Buffet so I guess I will just do my best. I am trading other pairs much more often than I used to.
Don't worry. You're not the only one confused. This market has completely lost it's mind in the last four weeks.
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In general I do not use indicators to trade. I do enjoy messing around with the fib stuff on longer time frames. I have several different time frames that indcate a major reversal is about to take place. Problem is...I have no idea which direction it might go. I think it looks like up, but who knows.
You're right!
Quote from Ivanovich:
Don't worry. You're not the only one confused. This market has completely lost it's mind in the last four weeks.
)
Quote from Exchanges:
You're right!
It indicates, to me, the influx of new retail traders beginning to have an effect, possibly.
Agreed. Has nothing to do with new traders. Part of what it is, is the Japanese end to the fiscal year. All that speculative money is flowing all over the place.
Look at silver.
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I don’t know when it is going to happen, but the trend on daily chart is up. Mr.Ivanovich.
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I exited my longs near the 2150 area this morning. There was heavy action on the surge to 2150. I took a short position which I had planned to hold. I decided to close it after it went south about 25 ticks. Again, I am fearful to hold the long trades.
I am thinking that this top area may hold and I am going to look to get short up here again in the London session at some point. Ideally offer up around the 2150 area again. I think the winds of change are swirling around.
Anybody else see this?
It's not the only thing that's... swirling around.
Quote from downrivertrader:
I think the winds of change are swirling around.
DRT,
You dont think that we will head higher in the next day or 2. A short tonight might be premature unless you plan on it being a quick scalp.
Good luck
Steve
Short at 1.2158.
Target is way down below.
DRT
DRT,
Good luck with that trade. I honeslty have no idea why the EC moved so strongly today. I know there has been some news out, but this move is amazing.
Regards,
Steve
Same old reasons - rumors, nuclear wars, trichet, gold, moon, tides, diversification, etc.....
A variety of
reasons given for the good performance of the Euro overnight, some was old news
such as the UAE raising its Euro weighting whilst other reasons given were
politicking from the White House over John Snow/strong dollar policy which was
denied. Also mentioned were geo political concerns, when it was announced Iran
is to commenced war games in the Persian Gulf next month plus ECB's Trichet
spoke hawkishly last night, reiterating the bank's price stability focus. You
should also add to this list that Gold jumped $13 and the market was short Euro.
Whatever the reason for last nights move it does appear to be a move of
substance. Whilst the market has been content all year to play the 1.18/1.23
range the moves from one end of the range to the other appear to be happening
more quickly and perhaps the breakout is close. As a lot of traders have burnt
their fingers trying to preempt the breakout the market will remain tentative
until it is actually upon us. For today Asia should trade quietly but another
attempt at the topside later tonight beckons.
DRT,
Good analysis. Are you still short the EC?
Code-named, The Pip Gobbler, this system is simple but effective.
190-pips gobbled in 10-opens (triangles pointing up) / 6-closes (triangles pointing down) - small-range position trades and 15-pt scalps - gaining the entire spike (no sense messing around, right?) over the last several days.
One current (long) position open @ 1.2190. Wish me luck.... ;)
Snapshot from my live trading account.
TheEx
(thanks for the blood money, shorts. )
1.2160
It will be interesting to see what happens on April 3rd.
__________________
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Is April 3rd... D-Day?
x
I am short 3 units of ECM06 at 1.2218, 1.2217, 1.2211. This is a short term play with very tight stops. I am looking for a retracement from today overbought situation. I will move stops to break even very soon. Total risk was 30 pips for the entire trade. I will cover at 1.2180 if we get there.
Regards
Steve
I think the probabililty of a retracement from this sharp spike-up is an excellent evaluation.
Quote from spersky:
I am short 3 units of ECM06 at 1.2218, 1.2217, 1.2211. This is a short term play with very tight stops. I am looking for a retracement from today overbought situation. I will move stops to break even very soon. Total risk was 30 pips for the entire trade. I will cover at 1.2180 if we get there.
Regards
Steve
Close shorts at 1.2165
Thinking about going long.
Regards
Steve
Quote from Exchanges:
Is April 3rd... D-Day?
x
__________________
There is no spoon.
Then, it's... J-Day.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Essentially. This is the day when Japanese flows go back into the places they all took them out of in the previous month (fiscal year end).
Honestly, I think the Japanese will begin to look at high yield currencies again. Or those soon to becoming high yield ones.
NZD/JPY might be a very good play.
__________________
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*flicks up a chart of AUD/NZD*
Quote from Ivanovich:
Honestly, I think the Japanese will begin to look at high yield currencies again. Or those soon to becoming high yield ones.
Yes still short and that analysis was not done by me. I just copied it over.
Quote from spersky:
DRT,
Good analysis. Are you still short the EC?
Long's the way to go.
Oil gold support.
EUR/USD with so many tests of support on hourly charts, obvious bull.
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you think we've entered an extended, protracted EUR/USD bull trend market?
Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Long's the way to go.
Oil gold support.
EUR/USD with so many tests of support on hourly charts, obvious bull.
Quote from Exchanges:
you think we've entered an extended, protracted EUR/USD bull trend market?
x
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"If the Fed levels off, the EUR/USD will go up sharply and sustainedly in a strong uptrend,..."
Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Not yet. My call for an extended bull trend was pre-mature.
The key for the trend of the EUR/USD and other currencies in 2006 will be interest rates. If the Fed levels off, the EUR/USD will go up sharply and sustainedly in a strong uptrend, since I'm pretty sure European Central Bank will tighten.
However, if the Fed continues to hike aggressively, EUR/USD will either be in a consolidating range or be in a downtrend, depending on which hikes more aggressive, Fed or ECB.
In the very short term, EUR/USD is good.
What other reasons are there for a strong USD? More deficits?
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Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Not yet. My call for an extended bull trend was pre-mature.
The key for the trend of the EUR/USD and other currencies in 2006 will be interest rates. If the Fed levels off, the EUR/USD will go up sharply and sustainedly in a strong uptrend, since I'm pretty sure European Central Bank will tighten.
However, if the Fed continues to hike aggressively, EUR/USD will either be in a consolidating range or be in a downtrend, depending on which hikes more aggressive, Fed or ECB.
In the very short term, EUR/USD is good.
__________________
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I have this pair closing in a very weak position. Of course, this is strictly a technical statement for me as I am not a fundamental trader. Likewise (as always it seems) I will be looking to the JPY to give direction as the flows return in the new FY. I have the JPY closing in a very strong technical position last week. Most likely we will range trade until I pass on.
Good view points from everyone here. I appreciate it.
DRT
Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Not yet. My call for an extended bull trend was pre-mature.
The key for the trend of the EUR/USD and other currencies in 2006 will be interest rates. If the Fed levels off, the EUR/USD will go up sharply and sustainedly in a strong uptrend, since I'm pretty sure European Central Bank will tighten.
However, if the Fed continues to hike aggressively, EUR/USD will either be in a consolidating range or be in a downtrend, depending on which hikes more aggressive, Fed or ECB.
In the very short term, EUR/USD is good.
When a similar problem existed?__________________
There is no spoon.
Quote from Ivanovich:
On the other hand, the M3 was mysteriously removed from publication, which leads me to wonder if this has anything to do with the fact that there's going to be lots of money printing. If that is the case, then of course inflation will zoom up and the Fed will have to hike to keep that under wraps.
Quote from Exchanges:
I'd vote for nervous and panic-stricken range-bound trading for at least the next 3 to 6 months - 500-pts. Maybe 6-cents.
x [/B]
Quote from Ivanovich:
On the other hand, the M3 was mysteriously removed from publication, which leads me to wonder if this has anything to do with the fact that there's going to be lots of money printing. If that is the case, then of course inflation will zoom up and the Fed will have to hike to keep that under wraps.
Quote from OfmY:
Actually you should look at trend of M3 before removing.
I guess it's down...the demand. So why do they need to high the supply?
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Uh, my guess was wrong.
Look at the picture.
Over the past year, M3 has grown nearly twice as fast as M2.
P.S. It's going to be very interesting and may be surprising week.
EURUSD and Eur/chf
I think EURCHF is simply short 1.5810 all week to 1.5700
EUrUSD seems like a sell here...but will wait for 1.2170 today and next to pt at 1.1920 by weekend
Longing Cable 1.73 today to pt at 1.7550
I don't think EurUSD and GBPUSD going same trend this week
GL
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Nice little 80-pt spike down in the first few hours of the opening. Our market's hot.
Anyone catch the spike? Kastro?
x
Quote from Exchanges:
Nice little 80-pt spike down in the first few hours of the opening. Our market's hot.
Anyone catch the spike? Kastro?
x
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Volatility. (lmao)
Quote from Kastro_316:
No, missed it!
I caught 20 pips on USD/JPY, and now Short EUR/JPY.
X, what do you think is in the future for EUR/USD this week?
Just put in a short on EUR/USD...Scalping time
-Kastro
Hey
Good job!!!
The downtrend should continue on to 1.2000 support. This weakness could be the product of the rise in USD/JPY.
-Kastro
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You know how to SCALP???
Quote from Kastro_316:
Just put in a short on EUR/USD...Scalping time
-Kastro
Hey
Quote from Exchanges:
You know how to SCALP???
Geeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh... I'm glad we're on the same side.
LMAO
x
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EUR
Might do this this week
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
I took off half of my position at 2040. Next target is around 1987.
Quote from downrivertrader:
Short at 1.2158.
Target is way down below.
DRT
Eur Low target
I think in general 1.1620 area
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Long's the way to go.
Oil gold support.
EUR/USD with so many tests of support on hourly charts, obvious bull.
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Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Whoops! 50 pips out of the pocket.
Bets placed on European Central Bank hike on Thursday. Since there are few expectations of a hike, I believe that makes it more likely and more potentially potent.
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Look for a move back up to around 2090 and reset shorts for 1987. 2059 will be the key on the way back down.
Quote from GlobalFinancier:
I think ECB will tighten (despite the rhetoric.. they can't be too direct due to pressure from EU members' leaders), so it's not a contrarian bet nor a blind gamble... I think the odds are dramatically better, and since this isn't a highly anticipated event, the downside is small while the upside is much more substantial
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I just reset the half I took off earlier on the move up to 1.2090.
Quote from downrivertrader:
Look for a move back up to around 2090 and reset shorts for 1987. 2059 will be the key on the way back down.
Quote from downrivertrader:
I just reset the half I took off earlier on the move up to 1.2090.
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GL and Happy trades
Shorting here will add more latter
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KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
10% a day is Possible in these MKT
well...working at 1:100 Margin +
Using 35% of the Margin
I think is possible
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KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Re: Hey
heh, don't worry about that.
Quote from Kastro_316:
Learning it...Mainly just testing it out.
Not at the level of that Scalpz guy yet though
-Kastro
)
how much of the move is related to this merger between alcatel and lucent ....EUR/USD???...european company picking up an american company...
Quote from Exchanges:
Ivansky, you back from the beach, yet?
LMAO
x
__________________
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This thread is about EUR/USD, not NZD.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Yes, and making good money on NZD. Check the thread for stats.
Hey
Short EUR/USD
-Kastro
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Re: Hey
Bro, it looks like we're trying to smash thru a ceiling!
Quote from Kastro_316:
Short EUR/USD
-Kastro
Hey
It's sure trying to, and it might just do it! I am still short, but if it breaks through the R level, I'm out! Either way, I have my Long and Short guns loaded
What do you think? And fundamental reason worth mentioning?
-Kastro
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Re: Hey
Absolutely.
Quote from Kastro_316:
It's sure trying to, and it might just do it! I am still short, but if it breaks through the R level, I'm out! Either way, I have my Long and Short guns loaded
What do you think? And fundamental reason worth mentioning?
-Kastro
Re: EURUSD and Eur/chf
Quote from kalzayani:
I think EURCHF is simply short 1.5810 all week to 1.5700
EUrUSD seems like a sell here...but will wait for 1.2170 today and next to pt at 1.1920 by weekend
Longing Cable 1.73 today to pt at 1.7550
I don't think EurUSD and GBPUSD going same trend this week
GL
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http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
1.2150 short to 1.2000
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GL and Happy trades
Thank God I don't have a position. This is a baseless upmove. (yet again). The market is so keen on focusing on an ECB hike in May. So what? The Fed is calling for 5.00 in May, and potentially 5.25 on from there.
Mid-East diversification worries? Abu dhabi and Oman just said they favor high balances of USD securities and dismissed any indication of moving to more Euros.
Twin deficits? Not that old story, is it?
Make no mistake. I'm not a dollar bull. I play the trend when it makes sense. But this move - no idea what it's doing. Pushing the Euro up past 1.23 range decreases the chance of a hike as no one would be more unhappy about a higher EUR than the ECB.
Perhaps this is a shakeout of spec shorts. I don't know.
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Is it just me, or is anyone else here suprised that we havent hit 1.15 or lower by now?
I guess there is still some room on the monthly chart, but that daily chart sure doesn't look too favorable to me.
Kinda worrisome.
__________________
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Quote from Ivanovich:
Thank God I don't have a position. This is a baseless upmove. (yet again) ...
Anything is possible, though the Iran issue is old news. No, it's talk of a Fed pause (which circulates every three weeks now) among talk of an ECB hike (also a monthly circulation). And more talk about reserve diversification (a Euro Bull fav). Throw in a new rumor about China announcing a "trimming" to their USD assets (riiiight. If they were going to do it, they certainly wouldn't announce it and damage the rest of their massive owned debt).
It's the usual. Silly season. I know I should buy into it and join the herd, but I can't. I can't do it when it's based on assinine fundamentals. I'll sit the sideline and watch the stomping from the cheap seats.
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Ivan,
When you got the answers to "why", the game would be over.
"If you don't know who the sucker is, it is you" - Warren Buffett
With today euro move I'm the sucker, 'cause I had the chance to go long @ 1.2120 (nice risk/reward) but I didn't, I just slept it.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Thank God I don't have a position. This is a baseless upmove. (yet again). The market is so keen on focusing on an ECB hike in May. So what? The Fed is calling for 5.00 in May, and potentially 5.25 on from there.
Mid-East diversification worries? Abu dhabi and Oman just said they favor high balances of USD securities and dismissed any indication of moving to more Euros.
Twin deficits? Not that old story, is it?
Make no mistake. I'm not a dollar bull. I play the trend when it makes sense. But this move - no idea what it's doing. Pushing the Euro up past 1.23 range decreases the chance of a hike as no one would be more unhappy about a higher EUR than the ECB.
Perhaps this is a shakeout of spec shorts. I don't know.
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First, I was speaking fundamentally. But if you'd like to throw in the breakout of the triangle, I need only point you to a technical downtrend in a longer term chart.
I agree, unemployment and PPI numbers were rosey. But not rosey enough to justify this kind of movement in the face of an unrelenting Fed. Again, just my opinion.
And that comment about suckers from Warren Buffet is actually him stealing an old poker quote about the "mark". "If you don't know who the mark is, then the mark is you."
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Quote from Ivanovich:
First, I was speaking fundamentally. But if you'd like to throw in the breakout of the triangle, I need only point you to a technical downtrend in a longer term chart.
I agree, unemployment and PPI numbers were rosey. But not rosey enough to justify this kind of movement in the face of an unrelenting Fed. Again, just my opinion.
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Yep And maybe we'll catch Osama Bin Laden, too!
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short this thing
Quote from illiquid:
short this thing
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feels real crowded though
Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Seems like there is some downside on the hourlies.
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Don't knock flexibility -- the amount of money available to you is directly proportional to how quickly you can change your mind.
Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Damn, why do I always have to make stupid short term predictions? Maybe I should stick with longer term prediction.
1.2300-1.2350 last stand of the bears.
We'll go through tomorrow when Trichet and Co wave a flag called "TIGHTENING MONETARY POLICY!"
__________________
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who got a piece of da rally here?
im tryin' to force meself to try fx out, but....i chickened ;(
IFR just released this which summed my sentiment exactly....
"Boston, April 5. Euro-phoria is getting a little silly this morning as rumors swirl that the ECB could hike as early as tomorrow. The ECB has gone out of its way to be transparent and has said it sees no advantage in surprising markets, so the odds of a move tomorrow are near zero. The odds of them signal tomorrow for the market to expect a hike at the May meeting are quite good. This is one reason why we are very cautious in getting caught up in the strong EUR theme. The risk near-term is that the market buys the rumor of a rate hike signal and sells the fact. Add in the proximity of US payrolls and the fact that the Fed is still data dependant and you could see dealers run headlong for the exits. Good options-related selling is seen in the 1.2300/20 area, dealers say. Bids remain at 1.2240/50 in good size. "
__________________
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Just shorted at 1.23
Seems to have not discounted any uncertainty with nfp numbers or ecb decision.
Looking for 100 pips.
Great, the whole board is bearish . . . what if ism comes out sub-50?
The move is in less than 5 minutes...stay tuned
What move? The sell off as Snow said NFP numbers will be good? I don't know how he knows this since numbers aren't even compiled until tomorrow evening, at which time a copy is given only to the President and the Fed Chairman.
Just know that there are a ton of offers in the 1.23 area - from the mid-east, from europe and asia.
Unless something amazing is released before NFP, don't expect to see a sustained break of 1.23.
__________________
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i.e. the move of starting taking profits ahead ECB and non-farm.
I disagree about impossibility of 1.23 break until tested one-two more times.
BTW: Snow tends to call jobs data good regardless of where the come in relative to trend or to the median forecast
Quote from Ivanovich:
See, I'm betting he won't tighten. He might signal for May, but consensus is he'll leave it alone in April.
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Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Consensus is usually wrong. How often are economists right on economic numbers at important times?
__________________
Don't believe everything you think.
ECB leaves rates unchanged Damn.
You win Ivanovich 
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Where now for eur/usd? I think there will be no surprises from Trichet, and there will be profit-taking before NFP.
Still maintaining short trade at 1.23
Congratulations, guys
ECB's Trichet Says Market Rate Outlook May Not Reflect Stance
April 6 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said investors' expectations for an increase in interest rates next month don't reflect the bank's current monetary stance.
``The present high probability which is given for an increase of rates in our next meeting does not correspond to the present sentiment of the governing council,'' Trichet said at a press conference in Frankfurt after the ECB kept its benchmark rate at 2.5 percent.
Economists and investors had revised their ECB rate forecasts as evidence mounted that growth in the 12 euro nations was gaining momentum, fueling demand for loans and giving companies scope to raise prices. Manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in more than five years in March, German executives were the most optimistic since 1991 and inflation exceeded the ECB's ceiling for a 14th month.
Trichet didn't say the ECB needs to show ``vigilance'' against inflation in his opening statement, a word he has used to describe the ECB's stance at the press conferences preceding the March and December rate increases.
The euro declined. Europe's single currency, which earlier climbed to a seven-month high of $1.2332, was worth $1.2243 at 2:49 p.m. in Frankfurt.
big spikes in the dax, the bund, and the euro...
Quote from GlobalFinancier:
ECB leaves rates unchanged Damn.
You win Ivanovich
God bless you . . .
Buysell1,
You are correct. I saw that bearish divergence last nite as well. It looked pretty strong. I sold 2 ECM06 at 1.2348 last nite. before I went to sleep placing my stop at 1.2404.
Looks like it worked out well for me. I will continue to stay short for a nice long ride down. I expect >100 pips profit per contract between today and tomorrow. The news coming out now is very bearish for the Euro.
Quote from spersky:
Buysell1,
You are correct. I saw that bearish divergence last nite as well. It looked pretty strong. I sold 2 ECM06 at 1.2348 last nite. before I went to sleep placing my stop at 1.2404.
Looks like it worked out well for me. I will continue to stay short for a nice long ride down. I expect >100 pips profit per contract between today and tomorrow. The news coming out now is very bearish for the Euro.
Currency markets feature the most powerful divergences of any market. I'm glad you had success with it!! Sorry guys, didn't mean to get in on a cash thread with the futures.
Closed wednesdays' short at 1.22 for +100 pips profit.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
There was a huge bearish divergence between price and RSI on hourly futures charts that preced the initial sell off.
this is why I contend that news is not needed--only charts are.
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Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Guess what? There was a huge MACD bear divergence on hourlies on spot gold charts from March 31st to April 5th.
And gold broke out to new highs today.
AND BTW, I posted about the bear divergence as well... we all saw it. Millions of eyeballs saw it.
Mon amis,
In my humble opinion, all Monsieur Trichet did was create a buying opportunity. I find it hard to believe a man in his position would provide comment to many of the questions that he did. We should all sell the damn Euro based on his incompetence. He absolutely must have other motives.
In any case, keep an eye on things today. Watch to see how the day closes. Lots of volume and if we close in the middle of the range, that should tell you that there was a lot of buying a "perceived" bargain prices by the market movers. That's my guess and I was a buyer.
Good luck DRT
Just re-shorted this at 1.2230. A bit brave ahead of payrolls, but I dont think they will be that bad, and I think the euro momentum has taken a big hit today. Probably some stale longs still outthere.
Quote from GlobalFinancier:
ECB leaves rates unchanged Damn.
You win Ivanovich
__________________
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Quote from downrivertrader:
Mon amis,
In my humble opinion, all Monsieur Trichet did was create a buying opportunity. I find it hard to believe a man in his position would provide comment to many of the questions that he did. We should all sell the damn Euro based on his incompetence. He absolutely must have other motives.
In any case, keep an eye on things today. Watch to see how the day closes. Lots of volume and if we close in the middle of the range, that should tell you that there was a lot of buying a "perceived" bargain prices by the market movers. That's my guess and I was a buyer.
Good luck DRT
__________________
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Quote from Ivanovich:
Of course he had other motives. He´s senstitive to a dollar rout ' they all are. Such a rout and sudden rise in the Euro could derail any chance of a recovery in the Eurozone´s highly dependant export market.
__________________
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[23:18 EUR/USD: Opinions Divided On Why Trichet Turned "Dovish"] Sydney, April
7: Analysts are divided as to why ECB President Trichet went out of his way to
dampen expectations of a rate hike in May. One theory is that the ECB was
starting to worry about the recent strength of the Euro against the USD and JPY
and forecasts of high it would go between now and the end of the year. There has
been talk recently that the ECB and EZ Finance Ministers were concerned that the
strength of the EUR/JPY in particular would hurt the export-led recovery in
Europe and the combination of stagnating growth and higher interest rates would
only exacerbate the problem. Another theory making the rounds is that a split
has developed within the ECB council between the "hawks" and "doves" and the
even-handed comments from Trichet yesterday were designed to stop individual
members speaking out and giving the impression of a house divided. At least one
consultant feels that the ECB might still raise rates in May and many feel that
we will at least see a hike in June. In the meantime it is likely that the
EUR/USD and EUR/JPY will correct lower.
I also think EUR is going lower. I don't think all of the pre-Trichet buying has been reversed yet. I think there's at least another 100 pips of downside.
closed yesterday evenings short for +100 pips at 1.2130
And there's the strong NFP, to cap it off. That's why I said the EUR move was overdone originally.
__________________
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Looks like you guys were right. I am still in my longs for now. I actually added to them this afternoon. Have a good weekend.
DRT
This was a nice trade. Congratulations.
Quote from YeahIknow:
closed yesterday evenings short for +100 pips at 1.2130
Hey
Just closed my EUR/USD and USD/CHF positions
+155 pips for EUR/USD
Have a good weekend guys!
-Kastro
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Closed my 3 short in EC from 1.2348 and 1.2284 for about 500 pips. Was a very nice week. I think there will be a buying opportunity next week.
Quote from spersky:
Closed my 3 short in EC from 1.2348 and 1.2284 for about 500 pips. Was a very nice week. I think there will be a buying opportunity next week.
Quote from spersky:
Closed my 3 short in EC from 1.2348 and 1.2284 for about 500 pips. Was a very nice week. I think there will be a buying opportunity next week.
__________________
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Still shorting Euro 1.2120 to 1.1985 Now
__________________
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http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Trade on Thursday created a bearish divergence with MACD and RSI on daily continuation charts. I would be cautious with a long entry just now. The low today hit the 20 day, so there is always a chance that it won't go through. I am targeting 119.60 initially.
...Not sure if it's Going north Much__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
congrats guys......awesome trades.........I got out of a short too soon and also went long too soon.............net net -$300 .....still nursing the long as well as a long in the June Bund contract......
Quote from $$$lover:
congrats guys......awesome trades.........I got out of a short too soon and also went long too soon.............net net -$300 .....still nursing the long as well as a long in the June Bund contract......
eur...
seems there is a bottom at 1.21...
I think wants 1.2270 area from here then south to 1.1895
I closed most shorts
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euro now @ 1.2105. target 1.2300
There's only a bottom at 1.21 because there's a big CB camped there. But he'll be overcome shortly - is my guess. Target of 1.23 is not viable at this point given fundies or techies.
__________________
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1.2115 now.
Bull.
Oil and gold will help for now.. let's see how far this will go, my interest rate expectations fell through so no fundamental support.
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While I agree on the oil issue to a point (though the US shows strong resiliance to oil at this level) I believe that gold follows the dollar, not the other way around.
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1.2132 spot BULL!
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I "see" a fairly bearish look to the $index on the monthly chart. Do any of you have this view or am I the only one.
DRT
What I see is the spot bouncing rather dangerously along an hourly uptrend line. One break below it and it's bye-bye birdy.
__________________
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Quote from downrivertrader:
I "see" a fairly bearish look to the $index on the monthly chart. Do any of you have this view or am I the only one.
DRT
Okie dokie, but I think she's headin south.
me too---Im still short the 126 calls.
Just to clarify. I was talking about the $Index.
Quote from downrivertrader:
Okie dokie, but I think she's headin south.
A Euro View
Quote from downrivertrader:
Just to clarify. I was talking about the $Index.
Not really a bounce of the daily lower trend line but it the usd/jpy continues to fall then this could go higher.
Bail now! 1.2070
Damn, trade news.
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I Longed again here 1.2060 to 1.2260
euro
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GL and Happy trades
Quote from kalzayani:
I Longed again here 1.2060 to 1.2260
euro
__________________
Don't believe everything you think.
Quote from Ivanovich:
What I see is the spot bouncing rather dangerously along an hourly uptrend line. One break below it and it's bye-bye birdy.
__________________
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Quote from late apex:
Which dealer got you filled at 1.2060, long? That's 7-8 pips lower than the lowest offers I've seen so far this morning.
__________________
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First, congrats on actually posting about a pair the thread refers to. Second, what is your long position, and why did you decide to go long?
__________________
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Ivan,
I was afraid you had lost interest in this pair. Nice to see you back at it.
I am still long, we are headed to 1.30 area.
Quote from Ivanovich:
First, congrats on actually posting about a pair the thread refers to. Second, what is your long position, and why did you decide to go long?
Quote from downrivertrader:
Ivan,
I was afraid you had lost interest in this pair. Nice to see you back at it.
I am still long, we are headed to 1.30 area.
Will be keeping an eye on this today.
The ten year is near 5%. The market has priced in two more rate increases. The trade data was better than expected.
All should be dollar positive.
However, this cross just doesnt seem to be able to hold lower levels. If it can hold 1.2070 post data, I'm going long.
Not breached yesterdays lows yet. Will make a decision on this one, post michigan, but generally a long bias.
Gone long now at 1.2098 sl 1.2050
Looks like it might be facing resitance from the lower daily channel line in blue, a daily fib level and the hourly channel which has formed.
If it can hold today above yesterdays lows, I fancy this going forwards. At the moment, its just ironical that despite a lot of positive news flow for the dollar (esp 10 year yield breaking 5% today) it cannot make further gains against the euro, the yen, the franc or the pound.
Quote from illiquid:
Lemme guess, something like this?
http://www.channelingstocks.com/testimonial.htm
But I've been watching the EUR for a bit now. Quietly.__________________
There is no spoon.
Quote from YeahIknow:
If it can hold today above yesterdays lows, I fancy this going forwards. At the moment, its just ironical that despite a lot of positive news flow for the dollar (esp 10 year yield breaking 5% today) it cannot make further gains against the euro, the yen, the franc or the pound.
Seriously. The EUR tends to move slower to the downside than it does spiking up. This is in good part because of the ongoing diversification issue.
But EUR is poised to drop off the 1.2080 cliff. I have been thinking about going long here, since I tend to trade longer term than many of you. But the rate outlook continues to favor the dollar. That will soon change, though.
Another few weeks is my guess. Then we shall see some REAL Euro buying.
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I wonder how much leverage the pit players at the CME have in pushing this market in the short term, especially in thin holiday trading. I mean, can they spend the whole session punishing some poor fool who shorted the low tick just to squeeze him out by the close?
Hey
Bullish EUR/USD to .2161
-Kastro
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I still see a major down move materializing in the $Index. Just hard to say what the timing is. I am still long from above and in the hole a little. I will cover if price solidly clears 2059 to the downside.
I think we are headed back up to test the 2330 highs. I think we will break thru to the topside. Personally, when I step back and think about what has caused the retreat recently (Trichet's mouth). It just doesn't add up. No one man is going to move the market in a totally different direction. It is just plain old human emotion. Then comes realization.
Plus there was a full moon at the end of last week. Go ahead laugh, but plot the moons on the Euro over the last several months.
Hey
Closed EUR/USD long .2161 at .2191
-Kastro
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I longed it today, hoping it can break the highest point of this year. I think it is still in its up trend.
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EUR Legs
IMO...
I think Now it's short at 1.2214...
Down to 1.2110
up again to 1.2240
Down again to 1.2140...then finish at 1.2294...
Back to 1.1978
GL
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
It's the WSJ article quoting the Chinese official saying that China should stop buying US treasuries. I always love these articles. I mean, the WSJ often quotes Chinese "officials" like this, only to have them come out later on and deny these rumors.
Why would the Chinese want to telegraph this kind of move and have all of their US denominated assets becomes worth less?
Blows my mind.
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Re: EUR Legs
Quote from kalzayani:
IMO...
I think Now it's short at 1.2214...
Down to 1.2110
up again to 1.2240
Down again to 1.2140...then finish at 1.2294...
Back to 1.1978
GL
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Closed long at 1.2238 for +140 pips
Nice.
Quote from YeahIknow:
Closed long at 1.2238 for +140 pips
Thanks, but it might have been a bit premature. But as I stated late last week, positive dollar news wasnt translating to a higher dollar. Looks like a possible head and shoulders on the dollar index chart.
Will long again if a retracement occurs to the 1.2240 level (for better risk/reward). Target 1.2415 - should hit this week.
Just curious, but what did you base your target on, and why are you so sure it will hit it this week?
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It could go higher. But the level is based on Fib 38.2% of 1.3665 - 1.1640.
The market is very dollar negative at the moment. The upward channel, supports the view that the recent top 1.2335 will be taken out and the extension of that view is that 1.2415 will be hit.
Similarly new lows will be hit on USD/CHF too. So look to short there on a retrace to the 1.28 level.
So you're mixing a fundamental and technical view in your call? Not that there's anything wrong with that. I'm just trying to understand where you're coming from.
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I just think the market wants to rally. Last week, there was very good news for the dolllar, which exceed consensus forecasts, but no new lows were printed. Today, post-TIC data, the picture could of changed, but the EUR/USD rallied. So, at the moment, I cannot see what will revitalise the dollar, apart from the market getting too short on $'s.
Technically, EUR/USD is over-bought on the hourlies, but at a very-low base on the dailies. So any small retrace is healthy, in order fofr a higher target to be achieved.
They always have an explanation....
San Francisco, April 17. The USD index
has extended its lows to 88.43 today, shaking off the positive TIC data in favor
of USD selling over Iran concerns. The index was last at 88.55 but still remains
poised close enough to 88.40 to break that level before the session is out. The
European holidays have thinned trading volumes, making the USD more vulnerable.
Traders are also looking for the USD to break out of the range that has
contained dealings in recent months as well, hoping for a new directional trend.
Many spec players are now short USD on today"s move but some traders maintain
that despite today"s price action, the USD remains in a range. In addition,
there remain some skeptics who are still negative for the EUR in the wake of
recent political developments including the Italian election and the French
rejection of reformist job laws.
Martin Wolf in the FT last week noted that total factor productivity growth in
the top three Eurozone economies, Italy, France and Germany, are falling to low
levels. These three account for over 2/3 of all Eurozone GDP.
Interesting. Here is something to think about. This big move up in the Eur is the second breaching of the RT channel line which started on 12-29-05. Also the GBP also took out it's upper trend line which started the same time. And a rise above .2340-.2350 could confrim the head and shoulders which has been forming on the daily chart.
Cant see the Head n Shoulders u talk about on the Eur/USD daily chart, where is it?
The blue vertical lines are showing the H&S.
Sorry about the clarity of this chart. I cannot seem to get it to look any better.
I had to look several times to understand that too. He means inverted head and shoulders.
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Yes. Sorry. Trying to do three things at once.
After closing a nice long, I've gone short at the 1.2281 area. This move looks overdone, and a tad stupid given all the "rumors" flying around.
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I see solid buying returning around the 1.2207 area. Maybe a good short down to this level but I am staying long. Good luck.
Solid buying in the form of a few mid east names? Easily overcome if the tide turns. Those names have been buying that range since December.
Here's why I did what I did.
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And from a deeper view...
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I think the hourlies will have to fall to a neutral level, so this will result in a retracement. I am looking to buy on dips and have limit orders of 1.222 and 1.7635 on GBP/USD to take me long again (not sure they'll get hit though).
The real truth in todays action will be when european trader's return tomorrow.
I believe the trend is up though for the next few sessions at least.
Hey
Nice play Ivan!
I went short at .2271
-Kastro
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eur/usd will up to 1.2330, may be higher. then down but won't lower than 1.2130, then up again.
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Stop was hit overnight at 1.2250.
Not sure I agree at all with the above poster's analysis, so will reset shorts on further failures at 1.2280
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If the data sends price south to 1.2207 then this is a buy for my methodology, otherwise any break above 1.2261 is a buy.
Topside Targets
1.2406
1.2383
1.2333
1.2295
Below 2207 and I would be short.
Good luck today everyone.
DRT
Hey
I think EUR/USD is on the move up now...Stop was taken out!
-Kastro
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Market is clearly long at this point, and this move is beginning to look overdone. Will not take a position, but instead will play dollar shorts against more reliable pairs, like AUD and CHF.
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I agree, as I said yesterday 1.2415 is the natural channel top target. However, given the doveishness of the Fed minutes I expected this cross to trade a lot higher, so it suggests the market is already very long, so a retracement may occur, before the trend is resumed. Buy sub 1.23 if you can.
I still laugh at the "dovishness" of the Fed.
First, the fed funds rate will easily be 5.0% by the end of next month. What's the EU rate?
Second, future Fed hikes will be data dependant, and they've explicitly stated that job and industrial data is at capacity and very strong.
Third, the ECB has (indirectly) stated that it does not want to see a repeat of December 2004, when the Euro took off like a rocket because it doesn't reflect fundamentals, AND it will be an EU "pain threshold" right around 1.25.
Economically and politically, the EU is half in the bag. GDP growth is not on par with the US, and will not likely reach those levels any time soon due to structural imbalances - imbalances that cannot even be corrected because every time there's a new law to help them, France goes into chaos, or German worker unions walkout.
I could see people buying Aussie against the dollar. Or even Loonie. Both of those comdols should be rocketing in the face of high oil, gold, and copper, etc. But the Euro? Haha...this is too much.
You know why the Euro takes off? Because it's the ANTI dollar. It's the most logical point to go to when you hate the dollar, which many people do. Buy Yen. The JPY cash rate is set to launch. But Euro?
I shake my head and wonder who the hell is playing what.
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Quote from Ivanovich:
I still laugh at the "dovishness" of the Fed.
First, the fed funds rate will easily be 5.0% by the end of next month. What's the EU rate?
Second, future Fed hikes will be data dependant, and they've explicitly stated that job and industrial data is at capacity and very strong.
Third, the ECB has (indirectly) stated that it does not want to see a repeat of December 2004, when the Euro took off like a rocket because it doesn't reflect fundamentals, AND it will be an EU "pain threshold" right around 1.25.
Economically and politically, the EU is half in the bag. GDP growth is not on par with the US, and will not likely reach those levels any time soon due to structural imbalances - imbalances that cannot even be corrected because every time there's a new law to help them, France goes into chaos, or German worker unions walkout.
I could see people buying Aussie against the dollar. Or even Loonie. Both of those comdols should be rocketing in the face of high oil, gold, and copper, etc. But the Euro? Haha...this is too much.
You know why the Euro takes off? Because it's the ANTI dollar. It's the most logical point to go to when you hate the dollar, which many people do. Buy Yen. The JPY cash rate is set to launch. But Euro?
I shake my head and wonder who the hell is playing what.
We'll no doubt see a correction in the EUR rather soon as the market herd mentality begins to realize that. Right now, it's all model/momentum funds pushing as far as possible, as always.
Look at the silver rally. How insane is that? RSI is like 92? LOL! I love it. I went long silver spot at 12. But I keep moving up my stop loss because I do not expect this to continue in it's madness - but every day I wake up and find that it does, and I shake my head in wonder.
Strange times are among us, friends. Strange times indeed.
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Well, after inching up for hours, Euro just broke the high for the year, at the normally dead time of 4:50 pm EST... Cable and swissy also strong, but, of course, not at new YTD high / low yet.
Someone say "strange times indeed"?
Everybody's talking and no one says a word
Everybody's making love and no one really cares
There's Nazis in the bathroom just below the stairs
There's always something happening and nothin' going on
There's always something cooking and nothing in the pot
They're starving back in China, so finish what you got
{Refrain}
Nobody told me there'd be days like these
Nobody told me there'd be days like these
Nobody told me there'd be days like these
Strange days indeed, strange days indeed
Everybody's runnin' and no one makes a move
Well everybody's a winner and nothing left to lose
There's a little yellow idol to the north of Katmandu
Everybody's flying and no one leaves the ground
Well everybody's crying and no one makes a sound
There's a place for us in movies, you just gotta lay around
{Refrain}
... most peculiar mama
Everybody's smoking and no one's getting high
Everybody's flying and never touch the sky
There's UFO's over in New York and I ain't too surprised
{Refrain}
... most peculiar mama, whoa
__________________
Don't believe everything you think.
Haha! I love it.
Incidently, just because I have no long EUR position does not mean I'm not in this. I'm short USD/CHF and USD/JPY, and long AUD/USD. So I'm enjoying the upmove, just laughing at it's stupidity.
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I am long EUR/USD, short USD/CHF -- both since this morning, at my normal size. And long GBP/USD -- have been building up this one for weeks, now at nearly 5 times the size. Also still long USD/CAD from 1.1463... hey, always useful to have something to keep you humble!
__________________
Don't believe everything you think.
Loonie will come back as soon as oil takes a break - if ever. Christ, $73 printed today. What the hell is that about?
Someone kill the speculators.
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The Eur totaly blew past my intraday target of .2335. Which is critical in confriming the INVERTED h&s formation. I'm begining to believe that it will hit 1.25 after a some retractions. My daily chart shows that each up move since 12/30/04 high has been pretty much symmetrical with two of the three up-turns bringing over 700 pts. I'm begining to build my position with this target in mind.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Loonie will come back as soon as oil takes a break - if ever. Christ, $73 printed today. What the hell is that about?
Someone kill the speculators.
Oh, I totally agree. At the risk of sparking a debate (which is not what I want to do here), oil will go down a lot as soon as Bush is out of office.
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Since it feels so uncomfortable to go short. Maybe we should go short.
.2406
Below 2358.
.2333
.2307
.2261/55
Hi late apex
Quote from late apex:
And long GBP/USD -- have been building up this one for weeks, now at nearly 5 times the size.
So of course its the President's fault and not Chavez and the nut from Iran..........hmmmm!!!
So let's stay long oil until 08 and by law the President will be out of office......then flip the position......except we may be blessed again and elect another Republican.
Unless the democrat is a complete and total jackass, you won't see another Republican in office this next time around. And believe me, it's a shame because I'm a republican.
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aren't they all?...ok only 99% of them.
I closed my long postion from early April. I see some signs of downwardness. I may regret it but I am not as confident at this time. I also put on a very small short postion.
I may regret it, but I have some nice profits to put in the bank. I will watch for a while.
DRT
Quote from downrivertrader:
I still see a major down move materializing in the $Index. Just hard to say what the timing is. I am still long from above and in the hole a little. I will cover if price solidly clears 2059 to the downside.
I think we are headed back up to test the 2330 highs. I think we will break thru to the topside. Personally, when I step back and think about what has caused the retreat recently (Trichet's mouth). It just doesn't add up. No one man is going to move the market in a totally different direction. It is just plain old human emotion. Then comes realization.
Plus there was a full moon at the end of last week. Go ahead laugh, but plot the moons on the Euro over the last several months.
Longs preferred. Damn, I was not too confident in posting earlier about this one.
But my commodity blocs are doing well .
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If we make it, I am going to cover my short positon at .2261. Might be wise to take half off around .2285.
DRT
Quote from downrivertrader:
I closed my long postion from early April. I see some signs of downwardness. I may regret it but I am not as confident at this time. I also put on a very small short postion.
I may regret it, but I have some nice profits to put in the bank. I will watch for a while.
DRT
Just gone long at 1.23
Feel a drop of 70pips from the high today is fair enough for a pull back. I think 1.2415 would have to be hit sooner or later. I think a range of 1.228-1.237 might develop for a while though.
Went long on 2nd pos. @ .2350.
1st pos. long @ .2262 4/18 - still open
Longs strongly preferred. Retracement and new highs today very constructive.
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"EUR/USD has overcome overnight highs at 1.2374 and shot up to 1.2386 as concerns over the impact of potential sanctions on Iran filter through to weaken the USD. Any freezing of Iranian assets in the US could trigger concerns among Mid-East oil producers that they too could be swept up by sanctions at some point in the future. Options-related selling is rumored on rallies with Asian names said to be protecting 1.2400 barriers. Dealers are also on guard for any signs of concern from the ECB over the strong EUR. The higher EUR/USD goes, the lower the odds for aggressive tightening from the ECB. EUR/USD trades at 1.2369. Bids are seen at 1.2330 on dips."
I point out the last few sentences as exhibit A.
Also why I'm avoiding this pair and it's irrational behavior. If you're going to short the dollar, there are plenty of pairs out there that make more sense. That'll be my last warning on the subject, as I doubt you want to hear anymore
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Quote from wwx:
Hi late apex
Would you care to elaborate a little on your accumulation strategy for ET readers' edification?
__________________
Don't believe everything you think.
Closed long at 1.2384 for 84 pips. Will go long again closer to 1.23.
I could be wrong but a lot of crosses are approaching upper/lower 2% ma bands, particularly GBP and CHF, against the dollar. Therefore, after massive weekly gains, you've got to question how much more there is to come this week. I'd look to sell higher, or buy lower in coming sessions.
Hi late apex
Indeed...
When the time is right, would you mind saying a few words about the raison d'etre (statistical, technical, fundamental, or otherwise) behind your GBP/USD trade, in particular?
Thanks in advance!
On the GBP/USD front. The economic backdrop on this cross is not great; tepid to say the least. Inflation and houseprices are pretty flat, and I cant see rates going up for a long time.
I think the only thing holding this up is M&A activity in the UK. Once, bids for certain companies are out the way there are no more buyers of billions of pounds worth of sterling. Also, general dollar weakness has caused GBP/USD to track higher.
The 2% MA band comes in at 1.7945, and 1.2645 on the USD/CHF. So, with a 600 pip weekly rally behind it, the risk/reward at these levels is good for a short I think the 1.7750 or 1.7630 levels are achievable.
Over 1.8030, all bets are off. To get there though 1.25 would have to be tripped on Eur/USD.
Crazy times at the moment though.
this is great information, thank you.
Quote from Ivanovich:
"EUR/USD has overcome overnight highs at 1.2374 and shot up to 1.2386 as concerns over the impact of potential sanctions on Iran filter through to weaken the USD. Any freezing of Iranian assets in the US could trigger concerns among Mid-East oil producers that they too could be swept up by sanctions at some point in the future. Options-related selling is rumored on rallies with Asian names said to be protecting 1.2400 barriers. Dealers are also on guard for any signs of concern from the ECB over the strong EUR. The higher EUR/USD goes, the lower the odds for aggressive tightening from the ECB. EUR/USD trades at 1.2369. Bids are seen at 1.2330 on dips."
I point out the last few sentences as exhibit A.
Also why I'm avoiding this pair and it's irrational behavior. If you're going to short the dollar, there are plenty of pairs out there that make more sense. That'll be my last warning on the subject, as I doubt you want to hear anymore
Hey
Closed all my positions.
AUD/USD + 61 pips
USD/CHF + 32 pips
EUR/USD - 13, - 23, + 10 pips
EUR/JPY - 25 pips, - 15 pips
USD/CAD + 18 pips
I am starting to feel a little burnt out this week so I am taking the rest of the week off! I have been looking at charts, doing math, reading reports pretty much day and night. Week was pretty good, but had major drawdowns, so the stress got to me I think.
Anyways, Hope everyone else has a good week, and I will be back next monday!
-Kastro
P.S. - Nice post Ivan
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Good trades.
I think USD/CAD has been disappointing this week, considering commod strength and dollar weakness.
Its a combination of fear/greed magnified 100 fold which has made this week so tiring. I empathize.
Have a good few days off, mate. I fear for the future with this market - it's behaving so irrational and there's no sign of let up. It's going to drive itself right off a cliff. Look at Gold, for the love of God!
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Quadruple MACD bearish divergence on Globex euro FX hourly charts??
Quote from Ivanovich:
We'll no doubt see a correction in the EUR rather soon as the market herd mentality begins to realize that. Right now, it's all model/momentum funds pushing as far as possible, as always.
Look at the silver rally. How insane is that? RSI is like 92? LOL! I love it. I went long silver spot at 12. But I keep moving up my stop loss because I do not expect this to continue in it's madness - but every day I wake up and find that it does, and I shake my head in wonder.
Strange times are among us, friends. Strange times indeed.
Quote from cruiser13:
Went long on 2nd pos. @ .2350.
1st pos. long @ .2262 4/18 - still open
Looks like we will go down to around 1.23 and then up
__________________
Annual forecasts - US indices likely to top around June/July. Down untill November/December.
I still have 1.2261 as my target on the downside.
Quote from cruiser13:
Still long going into London opeing. Heard EUR and NY investment banks were selling EUR/USD during the Asian session which made it breach the .2335 support area. Just when I wanted to pull the trigger and close, it shot back up from .2329 to .2346 and above the .2335. This quick move could have been flushing out the stops just below. This should give the EUR more legs to reach .2400 today. But stops are definitely being tightened from here out.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Quadruple MACD bearish divergence on Globex euro FX hourly charts??
As there is no news flow on this pair tomorrow. I'd of thought it will be contained in the 1.2285 to 1.2395 range. Therefore, a long close to or under 1.2300 has a good risk/reward chance with a stop at 1.227. Target 1.2375
Here is some info on possible options expiry for tommorrow. Take it for what it is worth.
Boston, April 20.
EUR/USD is hunkered down in ranges with few catalysts in sight to send prices
outside the 1.2285/1.2395 range in place over the last 24 hours. Bernanke"s
speech on community economic development late this afternoon is unlikely to
touch on anything with any implications for monetary policy. The calendar is
empty tomorrow except for some European data like Eurozone trade data, French
consumer spending and Italian retail sales. None are likely to be big market
movers. A bit of caution is expected ahead of the weekend G7 meeting, but
currencies are unlikely to be a prime subject given the relative stability of
the USD in recent months. Perhaps the usual appeal for Asian currency
flexibility will be repeated.
Of note on the options expiry front tomorrow is the expiry of a 1.2400 exotic
with a multi-million USD payout. Should EUR/USD garner any upside momentum
overnight, expect a concerted effort to trip the barriers. EUR/USD trades
quietly at 1.2318.
I'm short the 124.5, 125 and 126.5 may calls. where do you find out your options info? exotics can be set to expire on any chosen date can't they?
http://www.ifrmarkets.com/protected/ifr_main.html
I only know enough about options to be dangerous. I just try to be aware of expiries around the NY cut if possible.
DRT
thanks, you are right though, a large enough position and the deep pockets will defend it.
Momentum on the hourly is now aligning with the daily. On both the EUR and JPY.
Long EUR/USD @ .2335. With target to sell .2390-.24 if momentum weakens.
Short USD/JPY @ 117.95 With target to cover @ 117.35 if momentum weakens.
I hope you all took my advice and bought sub 1.23 overnight, for the 1.2350's?
i think the Euro is unable to hold its gains following the positive news from Riksbank and russian finmin Kudrin. I think the Euro looks overloaded to the upside, so I therefore think selling rallies in the mid to high 1.23's is the best bet for sub 1.23.
Keep 1.2415 as a stop.
Quote from YeahIknow:
I hope you all took my advice and bought sub 1.23 overnight, for the 1.2350's?
i think the Euro is unable to hold its gains following the positive news from Riksbank and russian finmin Kudrin. I think the Euro looks overloaded to the upside, so I therefore think selling rallies in the mid to high 1.23's is the best bet for sub 1.23.
Keep 1.2415 as a stop.
Quote from cruiser13:
Momentum on the hourly is now aligning with the daily. On both the EUR and JPY.
Long EUR/USD @ .2335. With target to sell .2390-.24 if momentum weakens.
Short USD/JPY @ 116.95 With target to cover @ 116.35 if momentum weakens.
long 1.235
closed long at 1.2404 for +54pips.
Quote from YeahIknow:
closed long at 1.2404 for +54pips.
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Staying out at the mo. But you cant rule out it taking the 1.2415, but it is tough going, its had plenty of opportunity to do it today, this morning and now.
I think the key is USD/JPY. As, if this falls, EUR/JPY falls and pressurises EUR/USD. So even if EUR/USD goes up, its going to held back by EUR/JPY losses.
It hit a high of 1.2415 just now, but no follow through. Interesting. I think its at a stasis at the moment as nobody wants to sell unless it breaks higher, and no-one wants to buy unless its a top. Therefore, staying away until the direction is more clear.
I think if the EUR/USD cannot close above 1.2415 today, it is a short.
Short 1.242
Quote from YeahIknow:
Short 1.242
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Cheers. Surprised at the bounce though. But I think the close on this is crucial today. sub 1.2415 and we are going down.
I hope you are right but it continues to crawl along the upper channel. what is the significance of 12415 in your view?
Quote from YeahIknow:
Cheers. Surprised at the bounce though. But I think the close on this is crucial today. sub 1.2415 and we are going down.
The 1.2415 is the 38.2%Fib of all time high and recent low in the 1.16 area. Also declining top trendline comes in at that area.
There seems a real incentive to sell the dollar at every opportunity. Despite another good set of results today, the effect wsa short-lived. So I wouldnt be surprised if the EUR/USD went a lot higher today. However, if the newsflow from the US still exceeds expectations, there is only so many buyers who will be on the bid, once they are exhausted, lower levels will happen. Its a paradoxical market though.
I find it rather entertaining to watch. Markets selling the dollar just because of a supposed decline that "must" happen. Abstract feelings are in season, but hard facts and numbers are ignored.
You gotta love it. The ECB must be getting ready to panic as the EUR appears to make a run for highs again.
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No doubt they'll disappoint next week, and that will be the point to short.
Quote from downrivertrader:
Here is some info on possible options expiry for tommorrow. Take it for what it is worth.
Boston, April 20.
EUR/USD is hunkered down in ranges with few catalysts in sight to send prices
outside the 1.2285/1.2395 range in place over the last 24 hours. Bernanke"s
speech on community economic development late this afternoon is unlikely to
touch on anything with any implications for monetary policy. The calendar is
empty tomorrow except for some European data like Eurozone trade data, French
consumer spending and Italian retail sales. None are likely to be big market
movers. A bit of caution is expected ahead of the weekend G7 meeting, but
currencies are unlikely to be a prime subject given the relative stability of
the USD in recent months. Perhaps the usual appeal for Asian currency
flexibility will be repeated.
Of note on the options expiry front tomorrow is the expiry of a 1.2400 exotic
with a multi-million USD payout. Should EUR/USD garner any upside momentum
overnight, expect a concerted effort to trip the barriers. EUR/USD trades
quietly at 1.2318.
Heh...new home sales through the roof. bond yields at highs and what happens? Dollar selloff. I love the craziness!
Reminds me of the good old days of November 2004 when people said "Sell on bad news, and sell again on good!"
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Ivanovich which crosses are you playing at the moment?
I think buying dips on eur/usd and gbp/usd is the way forward at the moment.
AUD/NZD and EUR/CHF (although the latter is moving rather absurdly too!)
Also playing some EUR/CAD.
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Ivanovich, so how did you play it in Nov 2004?
Surely if good US news is punished and bad news is too, then what is there to strengthen the dollar?
Still bullish.
USD getting hammered.
"Ben, save the Dollar!"
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In 2004, after getting stopped out twice with no logic following the upmove, I backed off completely and played pairs that had a right to move up against the dollar. Like the CAD.
These calls for "imbalances" to correct are always hilarious. Do you know what it would take for the imbalances to be corrected? Oh, I don't know, perhaps a Euro move to 1.50? Do you have any idea what that would do to the EZ economy? How about a Loonie of .90? Hell, Canadian manufacturers are already screaming about their ability to compete. Or maybe a yen of 100 would be better? Or 93? I'm sure Japan wouldn't mind that happening!
This is pure stupidity. Everyone is focusing on the US imbalances, forgetting that there are massive structural problems in the EZ that are only ignored as long as the EZ shows signs of possible growth. And the only way they can show signs of growth is to NOT have their currency explode off the radar. It's a double edged sword.
I saw a news release today about how talk is circulating about the ECB perhaps hiking a 50bps rise now. Haha! What a good laugh. A month ago they weren't sure about moves at all, and Trichet himself said "we'll have to see how things go, but we won't be embarking on a steady rate rising campaign". Now Captain Caution is gonna pull a 50bps trigger? Riiiight.
People are so stupid when they're in the "herd" mentality. Sure, there's money to be made when following the stampede. But people inevitably get crushed when the stampede suddenly turns into a different direction. Fear is ALWAYS a greater motivator than greed.
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Incidently, I would like to restate I have no open EUR/USD positions at the moment, and no short USD positions other than a few long term ones against the NZD. I could care less if the Euro goes to the moon. I just want to sit back and watch the carnage in the EZ when it happens.
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I read on a news feed this morning that some analysist are now targeting 1.2750. Based upon a chart only perspective, I was thinking 1.25 would be the top. Now I'm hearing this.
I agree. German ministers were shouting for the markets when the EUR/USD was at 1.3000+. The EZ trade deficits soared too.
But that doesn't prevent me from trading LOL.
I still like AUD/USD best.
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This is very simple. I think the Full Moon is tommorrow. Just sell on this cycle. Plot the moons you will be amazed.
I think we have put in a top today at 1.2470 - if it retraces up to this level it is a good area to short. Normally USD/CHF would put in a lower low today in sympathy but it didnt. That indicates weakening momentum at the extremes to sell the dollar.
All of this unexplainable "anti-dollar sentiment" in the face of unexpectedly positive U.S. economic reports makes me wonder: maybe it is true that the market goes where it will, and that the news stories are just adapted to fit what's happening in the market. It certainly does not seem to be the case that economic reports are driving price changes.
Now that we've touched the top of the EURUSD channel (or one of the main channels people draw anyway), it's possible that soon the dollar will start strengthening again. If so, I suppose it's time for the media to start talking about profit-taking on the Euro, about the "new dollar bulls", how the Fed really will increase to 5.25%, how the currency adjustments that need to be made have more to do with China, Japan and Korea rather than Europe. Ando so on, and so on...until the dollar starts weakening again and we can begin the cycle all over again.
Another thought is: maybe the exchange rate is like pressure on tectonic fault lines. The market can push price past equilibrium (based on economic realities), but pressure builds the further price moves away from that neutral zone...just like pressure building between tectonic plates. "Market sentiment" can only hold back the pressure for so long, however, and once whatever is pushing prices away from equilibrium gives way, the shift back to equilibrium is likely to be swift and violent (analogous to an earthquake).
Or maybe crazy market gyrations just cause traders to come up with crazy theories.
Added to short at 1.2457, i just feel things are indiscrimantely bullish at the moment, against a firming US backdrop. As Eur/GBP approaches 0.70 it will sell off soon.
Even Fed BB release, confirming an economy getting stronger, did nothing to help the USD. Wackos out everywhere.
I like the fault line theory, though!
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Killer formation.
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Quote from FX_Cowboy:
Another thought is: maybe the exchange rate is like pressure on tectonic fault lines. The market can push price past equilibrium (based on economic realities), but pressure builds the further price moves away from that neutral zone...just like pressure building between tectonic plates. "Market sentiment" can only hold back the pressure for so long, however, and once whatever is pushing prices away from equilibrium gives way, the shift back to equilibrium is likely to be swift and violent (analogous to an earthquake).
Or maybe crazy market gyrations just cause traders to come up with crazy theories.
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Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Soros came up with that erm 19 years ago
Short 1.248
Oh my God! This is unreal...haha....
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No it ain't. It's called THE MARKET!
The Fed is one damn predictable animal
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How high can this go? Dollar weakness across the board. Very volatile.
Being predictable is good. but I think the market underestimated Bernarke's comment. They took it to mean he's pausing now, and that's not what he said.
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This quote made me shoot pepsi out of my nose in laughter:
"The FX market has moved as much as any on the suggestion from Bernanke that the Fed might take a breather at some stage..."
Haha....I love it. One word: DUH! Was it ever in doubt that the Fed may take a breather at some stage? Or did the market expect sucessive hikes until we got to 21% or so?
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this is absolutly amazing. It's at 1.2540-50. The high from 9/5/05. Mabey this will be the ceiling. If it goes higher then it looks like 1.26 is the next resistance level.
Ivanovich...
The market only looked at the first half of the sentence, that there might be a pause in the tightening cycle, though that doesn't mean an end to the tightening cycle itself.
You're right, but you're seriously underestimating how stupid the market can get, and you're missing out on the profits by being a realist and not a doer.
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Closed at 1.2530 - minus 50 pips. Will put a short in at around the 1.2580-90 level.
I think on days like today it tells you how good a trader you are. If you can cut your losses quickly on days like today then, you should see it as a massive success.
My success today was taking 100pip loss on cable, gapped saved myself 80pip of further losses. and 50pips on eur/usd. I banked a 41pip profit earlier on Aud/usd. Deleting limit orders to sell Eur/USD and GBP/USD seconds before they were hit.
I lost money overall, but happy at my performance under pressure, on one crazy day.
I am extremely delighted here at the ability to short some more premium on the Euro future calls.
hey
Good job bud! This week is one of those weeks many traders will re-think their career
-Kastro
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Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Ivanovich...
The market only looked at the first half of the sentence, that there might be a pause in the tightening cycle, though that doesn't mean an end to the tightening cycle itself.
You're right, but you're seriously underestimating how stupid the market can get, and you're missing out on the profits by being a realist and not a doer.
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Oh, incidently, here come the European CBs. They must have got the call - Time to make an appearance and sell EUR.
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Short EUR/USD at 1.2535.
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1.30 in 2 weeks? Not a chance. You might be underestimating the all-conquering, advance-and-backfill, ebb-and-flow nature of forex.
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1.3 in two weeks is a pipe dream, I agree as well. Expect heavy, heavy selling by the ECB during an attempt at that number.
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Because the higher the Euro rises, the harder it is for the EZ - exponentially. A 1.25 rate they can handle for a bit, but even that is going to make the ECB uncomfortable. A 1.30 rate and you'll see the ECB go on perma-hold again, as numbers begin to churn out at poor rates again.
Despite all the yapping about structural imbalances, the EZ is one of the most screwed up "countries" economically.
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Quote from Valdis:
Well, look what happened between 1.21 and 1.25. No bad US economy news, expected fed reate rise, and so on. And the reason for 2.25? A couple of idiotic speaches about Iran, oil, dollar volatility as a reserve currency and then talks about fed rate. What's going to change in the next couple of weeks and what event is going to reverse the trend?
The Fed will raise to 5% and the ECB won't do anything in May. that's my vote.
As for misunderstanding the G7, how dumb can people be? The statement specifically said "Asian currencies must bear the brunt of an imbalance adjustment".
Since when was the Euro Zone in Asia?
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Quote from FX_Cowboy:
I agree with you that the Euro has risen in defiance of what one might have expected from recent economic reports and seemingly on the basis of some intangible fears and a lot of loose talk. First, I would suggest that talk and fear cannot hold up the Euro forever.
As for what is going to change, maybe nothing -- and maybe the Euro will continue to rise for a while. However there are a few scenarios that could play out in the dollar's favor:
-- There's already talk that the media and the markets misconstrued the intent of the G7, which is now purported to have intended for the yuan to appreciate NOT for the dollar to depreciate.
-- Oil prices have been moving lower all week, and could continue to do so, especially if:
-- The question of Iran's uranium enrichment can be settled without raising the spectre of oil supply disruptions from that country.
-- The FOMC raises to 5.0%; the ECB does nothing.
-- (My pick) For various and sundry reasons, different market players believe that the Euro has overshot, and that the market is going to correct, so they switch to a short bias, leading to a greater supply of Euros than dollars in the market.
-- All of the above.
That's what we're saying, chief. Long term fundies don't support the Euro.
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Quote from Ivanovich:
That's what we're saying, chief. Long term fundies don't support the Euro.
I'm sorry, but I don't agree. You can trade technical intraday movements - resistance and supports, fibos, etc. But at the end of the week when you see a 500 pip rise, that's not technical. That's a change in the fundamental perception on where things are going in the long term. And that's what I'm looking at here.
Sure, I've referred to strong data releases, etc. Those are all short term. But together, over a period of time, they generate a picture of the future. And that, as far as the Euro goes, is being ignored here. And it's not technical movement, it's emotional. Technicals don't hold market sentiment. They are calculations and math. Statistics.
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Quote from Ivanovich:
I'm sorry, but I don't agree. You can trade technical intraday movements - resistance and supports, fibos, etc. But at the end of the week when you see a 500 pip rise, that's not technical. That's a change in the fundamental perception on where things are going in the long term. And that's what I'm looking at here.
Sure, I've referred to strong data releases, etc. Those are all short term. But together, over a period of time, they generate a picture of the future. And that, as far as the Euro goes, is being ignored here. And it's not technical movement, it's emotional. Technicals don't hold market sentiment. They are calculations and math. Statistics.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
These aren't long term fundamentals you are looking at --Most of them are day to day and week to week. Just trade technicals --forget about news.When the market is ready to turn, technicals will give you the info you need. Always trade technicals --they hold the fundamentals within them and the human sentiment factor as well.
Quote from FX_Cowboy:
No argument there. What would motivate a trade is a completely different discussion. I'm just speculating what short-term events might eventually turn the herd around. I don't plan to stand in front of the stampede and try present my reasons why I think they may be headed in the wrong direction.
Quote from FX_Cowboy:
No argument there. What would motivate a trade is a completely different discussion. I'm just speculating what short-term events might eventually turn the herd around. I don't plan to stand in front of the stampede and try present my reasons why I think they may be headed in the wrong direction.
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Let me preface by saying that I posted AFTER your post -- not IN RESPONSE TO your post. In fact, I didn't even see your post before I submitted my own.
I present my reasons I think they are headed in the wrong direction, but I certainly do not take a stand in front of the stampede - which is what I've been saying this whole time.
I was under the impression this was a discussion. If I am wrong, I will refrain from future like postings.
As for the discussion on technicals, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree, because I cannot disagree any stronger.
I want to start trading FX but after reading the complaints about IDEALPRO, made me consider currency futures instead. So currency futures vs. cash - pros and cons - anyone care to comment?
Quote from Kensho:
I want to start trading FX but after reading the complaints about IDEALPRO, made me consider currency futures instead. So currency futures vs. cash - pros and cons - anyone care to comment?
My apologies, Cowboy. I thought you were speaking to me.
Cheers.
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Fundamentals
What fundamentally suports the euro against the dollar? It could not be interest rates. For every $10bil I leave in a US bank will provde me with $259mil more in one year than in the EU Bank. The deficit is also not caused by EURO but by China and Japan. Euro growth rates is also mush smaller than those in the US?
Any comments appreciated
Agree, I think all the bad news is priced in now, bar a war with Iran.
If you look on the daily charts, you'll see an inverse head and shoulders formation, with the neckline at 1.22. When the ECB doesnt raise rates next week I think it will test that area.
The market has overshot this week in my opinion.
Managed to stay out of the way of the moving train for the most part though.
Reminds me of the dot.com boom, which was fundamentally supported, but you'd of lost your shirt shorting it upwards, but in the end shorting was the correct thing to do.
The more I watch this, the more it seems like a new month will change the direction. It's trying to push for 1.26 by month end, but it seems way over extended. I've taken profits on my other short USD pairs, and took profits on gold and silver. I'm clean right now, watching.
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I love the news - "US GDP came in only at 4.8% (some analysts were expecting a bigger number and were disappointed). This will bode well for Euro bulls."
LOL What was the EZ GDP again? Has it been 4.8% in the last, oh I don't know, 5 years? How about half that?
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Euro bulls will suggest its like looking in the rear-view mirror. Crazy times. Whats your opinion for rate meetings next week?
I say:
ECB - no change
RBA - no change
Reality will hit then.
Quote from Ivanovich:
I love the news - "US GDP came in only at 4.8% (some analysts were expecting a bigger number and were disappointed). This will bode well for Euro bulls."
LOL
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Quote from YeahIknow:
Euro bulls will suggest its like looking in the rear-view mirror. Crazy times. Whats your opinion for rate meetings next week?
I say:
ECB - no change
RBA - no change
Reality will hit then.
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Shorting the Euro on here. Someone's bound to start taking profits and this is too fast for too short of a time. Looking for a drop back to 1.2350 in a couple of weeks if that.
GF - I saw ECI as very tame as well. Doesn't change the fact that the Fed will hike in May to 5%, then pause, and the ECB will probably not hike at all because, as you say, they don't want a stronger euro. I also agree with your synopsis on the RBA hiking.
At the end of the day, maties made an excellent point:
"For every $10bil I leave in a US bank will provde me with $259mil more in one year than in the EU Bank."
Rates may be pausing in the US, but no one has said they will be done there. In fact, Bernarke stated the opposite actually - a pause doesn't mean we're done.
When does anyone expect the EZ to hit 5%? How about 4%?
I continue to maintain that this latest EUR craze is based on emotional fallout from the G7, with some diversification mixed in for good measure.
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I think your correct. I think there has been a deliberate attempt to weaken the dollar: G7 comments (who are the asian currencies going to strengthen against...umm let me guess their main trading partner the USA), Fed governers warning of a pause. It changes the way we intrepret data, by saying we'll stop raising rates despite positive data. Whereas, before the interpretation of that data would have been dollar positive.
Re: Fundamentals
Quote from maties:
What fundamentally suports the euro against the dollar? It could not be interest rates. For every $10bil I leave in a US bank will provde me with $259mil more in one year than in the EU Bank. The deficit is also not caused by EURO but by China and Japan. Euro growth rates is also mush smaller than those in the US?
Any comments appreciated
Re: Re: Fundamentals
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
What supports a market is humans buying the market at higher prices. Fundamentals could be totally against the particular market and prices will still rise to due human sentiment. Best not to be an economist--just be a trader.
short 1.2573
And now the rumors in the market are flying about the ECB holding because of the strong EUR. Self defeating prophecy. Drive the EUR up because of rate increase expectations, only to find it was the drive up that prevented the rate increase.
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You mean holding, as in not raising rates?
I think Eur/Usd just wants to iht 1.2590 for its ambition to be fulfilled. I cant believe there is anyone else out there to be long?
Yes. It was inevitable - the ECB fears a strong Euro, and will not raise rates because the effect a strong euro will have on the highly dependant export market of the EU will be similar to raising rates.
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_, ._
（ ﾟ Дﾟ）
( つ旦O
と＿)_)
_, ._
（ ﾟ Дﾟ） ｶﾞｼｬ
( つ O. __
と＿)_) （__(）､;.o：。
ﾟ*･:.｡
And the madness continues, both here on the forum and with the EUR crossing 1.261
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WOW. I'm impressed with the strength and recklessness of this move up.
you guys should check out EURCHF chart.
Oh, I have. I had shorted the EUR/CHF yesterday and closed this morning.
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Hey
Quote from Ivanovich:
Oh, I have. I had shorted the EUR/CHF yesterday and closed this morning.
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_, ._
（ ﾟ Дﾟ）
( つ旦O
と＿)_)
_, ._
（ ﾟ Дﾟ） ｶﾞｼｬ
( つ O. __
と＿)_) （__(）､;.o：。
ﾟ*･:.｡
Thanks, mate.
I'm still trying to guess when this Euro-mania will end. I'm thinking when we return on May 1, we'll see the start to a massive correction. Long term is up, no doubt, but this - this is truly insane.
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Hey
I would have to agree, this cannot hold out much longer. Next and the following week we should see a major correction.
-Kastro
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Quote from YeahIknow:
....
I cant believe there is anyone else out there to be long?
Quote from Ivanovich:
Thanks, mate.
I'm still trying to guess when this Euro-mania will end. I'm thinking when we return on May 1, we'll see the start to a massive correction. Long term is up, no doubt, but this - this is truly insane.
Yes, I heard you mention that saying the first time.
I'm not against the market's irrational behavior. That is, I have no position on the Euro. But the more extreme the upmove, the more extreme the correction. This is an end of the month stampede. Something should and probably will change on May 1.
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Quote from Ivanovich:
Yes, I heard you mention that saying the first time.
I'm not against the market's irrational behavior. That is, I have no position on the Euro. But the more extreme the upmove, the more extreme the correction. This is an end of the month stampede. Something should and probably will change on May 1.
Ivanovich, do you have any evidence of month-end ramping?
Hard to get the timing right on these things.
I think there will be a sell-off in commodity currencies, as Gold just hit $650, and it wont hold that 1st time. Probably USD/CAD would be a good play at the 1.12 level (11yr low).
Scratching my head at all of this though. I think technical analysis and fundamental analysis are pointless on days like today.
I have been selling 128 calls today on the futures.
As I said, I think long term, the Euro is a safe bet upwards. I just expect the speed of it to be much, much less than this week's massive rise.
Well done on the trades this week. Personally, I'd take some money off the table (and I did with USD/CHF and AUD/USD). But that's just me.
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Quote from YeahIknow:
Ivanovich, do you have any evidence of month-end ramping?
Hard to get the timing right on these things.
I think there will be a sell-off in commodity currencies, as Gold just hit $650, and it wont hold that 1st time. Probably USD/CAD would be a good play at the 1.12 level (11yr low).
Scratching my head at all of this though. I think technical analysis and fundamental analysis are pointless on days like today.
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The only position i've got open is aud/usd short, and that is surviving by the skin of its teeth.
Quote from bali_survivor:
yes, last year there were saying that the Euro would hit 1.80 ~ 2.00 USD. Then it became 1.00 to 1.00, and who bailed with (what was it?) a 900M loss? No one knows.
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Something interesting. I have EUR futures and ER2 futures charts side by side. The moves are almost identical.
Not a futures player. Can you clarify what is interesting?
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yeah thats right... the projection for German GDP has been raised for the fourth time in a row--- to 1.6%
go euro go.... just kidding
-----------------------------------------
Germany's gross domestic product will expand 1.6 percent in 2006, the Economy Ministry said, one day after the country's six leading economic institutes raised their forecast to 1.8 percent. The government's January forecast was 1.4 percent. Growth will slow to 1 percent next year, the ministry said today.
hey guys, I trade the currency futures instead of trading the underlying pairs directly. How do you guys do your taxes? just curious. I don't have any plans to trade forex though using IB - their interface sucks.
I have done the Oanda FXGame and I love their interface, everything is so fluid and well thought out.
At any rate, profits on Forex trades are counted as interests and income, not the typical Sched D investment, right?
Actually, he didn't bail out, he cut down positions from $21 billion to $16.3 billion.
And forex contracts are marked to market, so he made a lot of money from EU bonds already.
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This morning they are rising and falling almost in unison.
Quote from polpolik:
hey guys, I trade the currency futures instead of trading the underlying pairs directly. How do you guys do your taxes? just curious. I don't have any plans to trade forex though using IB - their interface sucks.
I have done the Oanda FXGame and I love their interface, everything is so fluid and well thought out.
At any rate, profits on Forex trades are counted as interests and income, not the typical Sched D investment, right?
__________________
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Quote from Ivanovich:
Not a futures player. Can you clarify what is interesting?
__________________
Don't believe everything you think.
Yes, expecting it to change shortly.
thanks apex. Not sure if I'm up to the task as far as recording trades I'm too lazy. Of course, I guess most forex traders are more long term than futures daytraders.
Actually, no need to record individual forex trades for tax purposes (although can be extremely useful for other reasons, e.g., your own review, but, hey, let us not digress...). That's the beauty of it. Save online monthly or longer statements, showing all your trades, as computer files, just in case you ever get audited. Keep track of the change in account value however often you want -- say, monthly -- net of withdrawals and deposits, if any. After year-end, take the total annual change in value and net out the interest from the dealer's 1099-INT form:
Net gain/loss = ending value - beginning value + withdrawals - deposits - interest
That's your net gain/loss from forex transactions to report for the year. That's it... you're done with taxes, forex-wise.
But please study that link carefully for key issues to be aware of and certain simple action steps to take now, depending on whether you expect a gain or a loss from your forex trading.
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gotcha. definitely a lot simpler than having to show those stackes of stupid schedule D and worksheets.
I'll have to look into that. thanks!
Hey
Can someone tell me what the hell happened right before close?
-Kastro
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A late dip? Dunno, probably some people taking money off the table. I'd be careful of that in the days to come. I'm strongly confident there will be a significant correction next week. So confident, I am actually going to take a short right here at 1.2632.
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Drop to .2337! Wow!
I think you are right Ivan, a correction is comming...We shall see next week.
-Kastro
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What? I don't see that anywhere.
__________________
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Hey
Just the low shadow.
-Kastro
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Cute. Who is that spike of death with?
Hell yeah, a correction is inevitable. A meaningful, significant retracement after every strong move is THE primary way for the big boys -- the global liquidity providers -- to make money. It's their very livelihood, their bread and butter. Without that ebb and flow, where would they be?
__________________
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Re: Hey
Quote from Kastro_316:
Just the low shadow.
-Kastro
__________________
Things should be made as simple as possible, but not any simpler.
That is not a good tick!
I checked TS, eSIG and Bloomie, and that tick did not occur.
Hey
What the heck...Oanda
I knew it never happened, because my other 2 charting programs had nothing. Not that it's a big deal, maybe a malfunction or something but still, took my breath away for a second
-Kastro
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U.S. TREASURY BONDS are bottoming out. Does any one know if it has impact on the USD?
__________________
I think I can I think I can I think I can...
Re: Hey
Quote from Kastro_316:
What the heck...Oanda
I knew it never happened, because my other 2 charting programs had nothing. Not that it's a big deal, maybe a malfunction or something but still, took my breath away for a second
-Kastro
__________________
Don't believe everything you think.
Quote from Ivanovich:
A late dip? Dunno, probably some people taking money off the table. I'd be careful of that in the days to come. I'm strongly confident there will be a significant correction next week. So confident, I am actually going to take a short right here at 1.2632.
!
Quote from jerry11901:
U.S. TREASURY BONDS are bottoming out. Does any one know if it has impact on the USD?
I bought puts on the TLT. Bond crash.
Quote from vital-analitix:
I sincerely hope you are kidding for your own sake. Jesse Livermore's book mentions: "never try to catch a falling dagger" (wait until it sits firmly in the ground)
The way I interpret it is that this is one of those dreaded "short squeeze's" and no-one knows how high they can spike. It did look for a while like it was a standard double top and lots started to short before the market actually indicated it.
When I saw the market slowly drifting upwards I went long and loaded the boat - I figured it was only a matter of time before the inevitable stops would be hit. And hit they did
Now I am sitting on the sideline until the next part of the play becomes clear and I know what the likelyhood of the outcome will be. I am retired from the medical profession but we had an expresion: "In dubio - abstine" (When in doubt do not do anything)
Obviously you were not around when the Japanese goverment decided to "punish" the currency speculators and it made in 36 hours something of a 15% move (forget the actual numbers but it was in that ball park) It taught me a lesson I'll never forget.
I strongly feel currencies are running to a different tune than indexes and stocks.
I do not want to be an alarmist but.... coming monday there MAY be blood in the street and dickens to pay. I am saying this because I wonder if the reputed Asian currency remark ( mentioned earlier in this thread ) was an attempt by Bernanke at being screwd or just plain stupidity. (I never follow the actual news, the charts will tell me the long term stuff, if it is important news then I may hedge or stand aside, like now with Bernanke, he is still relatively unknown) If this remark is true then: Doesn't he realise that the USD is the default reserve currency in these countries? Now with this spike in the Eur-USD some in those countries may well decide to convert their holdings in Euro's, particularly when they have the weekend to think about it. And then same applies for those who trade on a weekly bar. And do not forget manufacturing / export / import: they may suddenly decide to "hedge". And if the remark has pissed off some ( Asian ? or other? ) government then it may just be the proverbial drop that makes the bucket overflow and tip that country towards converting their reserves (like Sweden?) (In Asia it is still a pretty normal thought process of "you scratch my back and I scratch your's" If you piss them off then why would they want to stick with you? They'll never forget!)
I am left wondering: is this the drop in the bucket that will start the inevitable chain reaction towards panic in the markets?
One thing is for sure: it will be an interesting opening next week and I am glad to be flat. (I did think about staying long but too much can happen over the weekend)
vital analitics
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Quote from Ivanovich:
...... But if I get stopped out, I get stopped out. .....
you know what, you can preach about how people should trade all the time but everyone knows these already. What really matters is real life execution and making money. What do you suggest ivanovich do? From the sound of your post, you're almost sayin you're never wrong and that you know everything when it comes to trading.
Give the people here some credit and don't think you know more than anyone does because they're short the Euro and right now. What matters is, you get stopped out or protect your losses. For all you know, a 10% move against him on the euro could very well be just a 5% hit on the account value.
You don't know that.
Quote from polpolik:
you know what, you can preach about how people should trade all the time but everyone knows these already. What really matters is real life execution and making money. What do you suggest ivanovich do? From the sound of your post, you're almost sayin you're never wrong and that you know everything when it comes to trading.
Give the people here some credit and don't think you know more than anyone does because they're short the Euro and right now. What matters is, you get stopped out or protect your losses. For all you know, a 10% move against him on the euro could very well be just a 5% hit on the account value.
You don't know that.
Yes, we're all newbies, and none of us have any idea about trading.
Why not take your 57 posts and find another home? Us newbies are happy here.
Just because we don't see it your way does not make us inexperienced. I've been trading now for several years, and I've yet to have a stop not filled. So buzz off, or contribute to the thread in a constructive manner.
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Quote from Ivanovich:
Yes, we're all newbies, and none of us have any idea about trading.
Why not take your 57 posts and find another home? Us newbies are happy here.
Just because we don't see it your way does not make us inexperienced. I've been trading now for several years, and I've yet to have a stop not filled. So buzz off, or contribute to the thread in a constructive manner.
Quote from vital-analitix:
Ahhh....that youthfull inexperience and optimism that ones stop will get filled
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vital,
if you really knew what you were saying, you wouldn't be spending time posting on this thread, arguing with us "newbies", and instead be off in hawaii on your huge yacht wasting the day away.
So do us all a favor, buzz off if you really don't have anything good to contribute. To criticize someone's strategy and yet contribute nothing to the criticism is pointless and a complete waste of everyone's time by letting us read your crap.
Damn, EUR/USD continues to go higher, and I sounded bearish(though I haven't wavered from my positions, especially gold and aud/usd) but it was stupid of me to listen to other people. Not because they're wrong, but because they think in different time frames and think larger than people like me who are content with smaller profits(we'll take larger ones as well thank you)
Well, I've learned my lesson, unsubscribing from this thread, from now on, listening to self, self is always right till proven wrong by the market...
This thread is just a place for conversation, GF - sometimes it's good to listen to other's comments, but you shouldn't alter your strategy.
I'm not altering mine, I'll remain short for now until my stop is hit. I continue to maintain that we'll see a correction when the month begins (this is a holiday for many in the EU).
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Trend on EUR-USD is up ,I am going to close my positions @1.28.
But my favor is GBP-USD playing long
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I think there will be a correction at somepoint. Lets not forget cable has risen 600 pips in 3 trading days. However, i wouldnt short yet as the trend is up. Its a data-heavy week, so a lot can happen. I think playing the crosses such as Eur/GBP, Eur/Chf and Aud/Nzd are more predictable ways of making money.
while a bit off topic, im starting to prepare some short of the yen. The BOJ will have to think twice raising their rates when they're not even 100% sure they're out of the woods yet.
Ok, time to sell now.
1.2610 spot.
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Hey, how about that correction - right on schedule (month beginning).
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Quote from Ivanovich:
Hey, how about that correction - right on schedule (month beginning).
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Apparently the dollar strength is a result of strong ISM numbers today, which caused profit taking and crucially the CNBC report reporting Bernanke saying he was flexible and not doveish, and thus misinterpreted last week. A top is in, imo.
I think Bernanke is just an idiot. I thank him for making me a bunch of money today but I don't think he has any clue as what to do with this economy.
Not sure why you think this is all Bernarke's fault. His remarks were clear as day to me, the market just took it as an excuse to sell off the USD. The market read into it what it wanted, and didn't bother to listen to the full comment. He clearly said that a pause was near, but that a pause was not the end to hikes. What part of "not the end to hikes" was so hard to get?
Check my posts a few pages or so back. I said it then that the market took it wrong, and now it's being picked up by the news like it's a revelation. I tell ya, silly is in season.
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I'm not saying today's bernanke's fault. I merely commented on his ability to take the bull by the horn (no pun intended) and decide what he wants to do. It almost seems like he's flying by the seat of his pants with trial and error policies.
Maybe, but it's not exactly an rosey picture he was given from Greenie. He's got a commodity launch trajectory (oil rocketing to the moon, gold right behind it), causing inflationary pressures, but on the other hand he's got people telling him the US housing bubble could send the economy into a crash that - coupled with the existing deficits could send the US back to the 70s.
I think a little caution is warranted, so long as he gets it right. What the market doesn't get (or chooses not to get, take your pick) is that the US isn't alone with many of these worries.
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Quote from polpolik:
I think Bernanke is just an idiot. I thank him for making me a bunch of money today but I don't think he has any clue as what to do with this economy.
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Hey
I don't think anyone comming right into this mess would be any different.
-Kastro
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Re: Hey
Quote from Kastro_316:
I don't think anyone comming right into this mess would be any different.
-Kastro
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I don't want President Bush's job but that doesn't mean I can't criticize the guy and that I'm not supposed to think he could have done better by growing a brain.
Same thing goes for BB.
But don't you think that he (either of them) has a bit more visibility to data and information than you might? This would enable them to make decisions that you might think are stupid, but in reality are right on the mark.
It's easy to criticise.
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Re: Re: Hey
Well said. Any position of visibility or leadership makes you a target.
Quote from Ivanovich:
...At the end of the day, would you want that job? I sure as hell wouldn't. So many armchair QBs here
They may have more information than me but doesn't mean they can make better decisions than someone else that could have done a better job given the opportunity.
When I say they're stupid, all I'm saying is I disagree with their decision and someone else could have done better. Much like when I watch basketball and say that was a dumb move. I'm sure NBA players can outplay me with both hands tied to their back
Quote from Ivanovich:
But don't you think that he (either of them) has a bit more visibility to data and information than you might? This would enable them to make decisions that you might think are stupid, but in reality are right on the mark.
It's easy to criticise.
Short. 1.2575.
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Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Short. 1.2575.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
How many pips target
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Cover 1.2630. EUR/USD draws more blood from traders...
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Lol, It seems as if I've been deeply poisoned by fundamental analysis. Now whenever I think long EUR/USD, a picture of Trichet saying rates neutral pops up in my head.
Anyways, long and bullish, this will probably be a long run play...
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but we really need a bit of retracement before more strength
Are we seeing some double tops today, especially on aud.usd and gbp/usd?
Double tops would imply that the market is following some sort of ruleset, logic or past behavioral pattern. This market is looney. A double top means jack to it!
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Quote from Ivanovich:
This market is looney.
En masse, there must be more buyers than sellers. So how have they all reached the same conclusion?
Cable will probably go to 1.90 before they all reverse it down to 1.75 again.
Quote from wwx:
Nice pun, Ivan.
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Hey
Spotting a double top right now is as valid as flipping a loonie (Damm, pun not as good as Ivan's) lol
-Kastro
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Short at 1.2627
Hey
It's going to break .2700
-Kastro
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Re: Hey
Quote from Kastro_316:
It's going to break .2700
-Kastro
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"May all your fills be complete!"
Ok, that's enough madness for one quarter.
"14:04 EUR/USD: Data So Good Even the Fed Can"t Ignore It]
Boston, May 3. EUR/USD has dipped back toward the 1.2600 level after a big jump in the service sector ISM report and on strong factory orders. Should the employment report on Friday follow suit, talk of a pause by the Fed policy makers will look even more silly. Stops are eyed in the 1.2590 area and again below 1.2560"
With the onslaught of excellent US data, this emotional paradox about the Fed going on pause is getting out of hand. Clearly, the US economy is chugging along. And who thinks the ECB will hike tomorrow? Not me. I've been wrong before and will be wrong again, but I don't think this time.
I'm going to get me a T-shirt to wear next week: "Stop the Madness!"
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Just go long Eur/USD, more painless at the moment.
this would be a perfect time for Bernanke to accidentally mention himself being hawkish to tank this market and help the dollar. I think he loves doing that.
Quote from YeahIknow:
Just go long Eur/USD, more painless at the moment.
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"May all your fills be complete!"
long 1.261
anyone else tonight see the spoofing?
someone was bidding for a shade over 1000 EUR
a few hours ago in
futures ... pulled the bid .. then came back on the bid then pulled the bid
not much happened EUR dropped 5 ticks then rallied 10 ticks
Don't watch the futures market, but that's a tad interesting
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I'm fully loaded on the short side at the moment. I'll either get a truckload of money or my head handed to me on Friday
I hope your in a position to hang on to your short a little, i think you called the top a little early, but if you have enough to ride your position till the market changes, it will probably work out really well for you.
There really is not much support when you look under where we are right now (currently hovering around 12600)
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I saw it too. 1015 popped in and out several times. Looks like very few were ever filled. It did make me flutter a little.
DRT
Quote from SethArb:
anyone else tonight see the spoofing?
someone was bidding for a shade over 1000 EUR
a few hours ago in
futures ... pulled the bid .. then came back on the bid then pulled the bid
not much happened EUR dropped 5 ticks then rallied 10 ticks
Closed at 1.2685 +75pips
Closed at 1.2685 +75pips
This has got to be the last surge before a correction. I'm not fading it, that's for sure. But all USD pairs are massively overbought/oversold from a technical perspective, and the balance points to the US from a fundamental perspective.
Interestingly enough, check this out:
"San Francisco, May 4. Overnight, Russia reported that its reserves had climbed $8.6 bln in the week ending April 28th with reserves rising to $225.7 bln and new record highs. The week of April 21st, Russian reserves were the fifth largest in the world. This week, with the $8.6 bln rise, reserves are now the fourth largest in the world, outstripping S. Korean reserves but below China, Japan and Taiwan"s reserves. The prior week of April 21st, Russian reserves rose $5.1 bln and the week before that they rose $3.9 bln. The sharp rise in reserves begs the question as to whether the increase also correlates with the recent gains in the EUR as well, particularly following the April 21st comment from Russia"s Finance Minister Kudrin questioning the dollar"s pre-eminence as the world"s reserve currency.
ITAR-TASS makes a point today to note that Brazil, Russia, Indian and Chinese reserves now surpass the reserve holdings of the G-7 nations at $1.292 tln compared to $1.253 tln for the UK, Germany, Italy, Canada, the US, France and Japan"
Wonder if the Ruskies are behind a lot of this?
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Wheee...through 1.27
In the months to come, let's see what this begins to do to the EU economy...
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Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Lol, It seems as if I've been deeply poisoned by fundamental analysis. Now whenever I think long EUR/USD, a picture of Trichet saying rates neutral pops up in my head.
Anyways, long and bullish, this will probably be a long run play...
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While I agree with all the reasons it should not go up anymore..... looks like
1.2738
then
1.2790
then
1.2843
to me.
Sigh.
YEAH YEAH YEAH
NFP LOWER, UNEMPLOYMENT UNCHANGED WOOOOHOOOOO!!
Seems like the Feds are gonna save the stock market and real estate market, the USD is on a one way trip to hell!
Might I say that I'm starting to like Ben Bernanke?...
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Agreed. I will buy the pull back.
Too early to tell here, but there is certainly potential for bearish divergence on hourly charts. It would be a classic setup if the market fails to tack on gains here in the next hour or two. I'm speaking about euro fx futures
Quote from GlobalFinancier:
YEAH YEAH YEAH
NFP LOWER, UNEMPLOYMENT UNCHANGED WOOOOHOOOOO!!
Seems like the Feds are gonna save the stock market and real estate market, the USD is on a one way trip to hell!
Might I say that I'm starting to like Ben Bernanke?...
I agree. The Fed is going to stomp on everyone one of these days. Everyone is cheering the demise of the almighty dollar, and as usual, the US keeps quiet on it, except to chide Japan for not allowing their currency to slide like the rest of the majors.
The Fed knows exactly what it's doing, I'm sure. I certainly have no idea what it's doing, but the Fed does.
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I got a bit too excited.
That's due to the local exchange being closed for A WEEK, and gold is going thru the roof. I should've made 20-40% returns, but since the exchange won't open till next week, I need to keep gold afloat ;), otherwise my big trade of the year is gone
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Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Too early to tell here, but there is certainly potential for bearish divergence on hourly charts. It would be a classic setup if the market fails to tack on gains here in the next hour or two. I'm speaking about euro fx futures
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
I will have no choice here in 5 minutes when the hourly bar finishes to do anything but go short. Classic bearish MACD Histogram divergence. EDIT--unless the last 5 minutes negates it.
Welcome to the Dark Side, Jedi.
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Hey
Long at .2737
-Kastro
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And here is why I think the market is going to get a rude wakeup call:
"Boston, May 8. With another 25 bps rate hike a sure bet Wednesday, the Fed continues to act on the inflation threat. Risks of commodity and wage inflation outweigh those of a softening economy so a tighter policy stance is appropriate. Apart from weak payroll growth, economic data at the start of the second quarter have been strong. We place low odds of a 50 bps rate hike on May 10 and similarly low probability that the
Fed pauses in June. While a 5% nominal funds rate today is consistent with real Fed funds (deflated by the core PCE price index) near 2.5% (i.e., above supposed neutrality), domestic and global demand conditions warrant further absorption of the capital glut. The faster foreign central banks raise their rates, the sooner the Fed can stop raising its. That's not apt to happen until the Fed moves to 5.50% at the June 29-30 FOMC meeting. -- Jeoff Hall"
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Sell! Sell! 1.2722.
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Quote from Ivanovich:
And here is why I think the market is going to get a rude wakeup call:
"Boston, May 8. With another 25 bps rate hike a sure bet Wednesday, the Fed continues to act on the inflation threat. Risks of commodity and wage inflation outweigh those of a softening economy so a tighter policy stance is appropriate. Apart from weak payroll growth, economic data at the start of the second quarter have been strong. We place low odds of a 50 bps rate hike on May 10 and similarly low probability that the
Fed pauses in June. While a 5% nominal funds rate today is consistent with real Fed funds (deflated by the core PCE price index) near 2.5% (i.e., above supposed neutrality), domestic and global demand conditions warrant further absorption of the capital glut. The faster foreign central banks raise their rates, the sooner the Fed can stop raising its. That's not apt to happen until the Fed moves to 5.50% at the June 29-30 FOMC meeting. -- Jeoff Hall"
Quote from Ivanovich:
The faster foreign central banks raise their rates, the sooner the Fed can stop raising its. That's not apt to happen until the Fed moves to 5.50% at the June 29-30 FOMC meeting. -- Jeoff Hall"
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Quote from late apex:
5.50% in June? Surely he meant to say 5.25%. Assuming a raise to 5% on Wednesday, a 50 bp raise next month is considered extremely unlikely, as of now.
Incidentally, the last time the Fed moved by 50 bp was in Nov. 2002 (down) and May 2000 (up). Nov. 1994 must have been interesting, too...
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm
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short 1.2786
It takes guts just to post this. I predict you will achieve greatness.
Quote from YeahIknow:
short 1.2786
Closed 1.2706 +80pips
Speculative question: Does anyone think the EURUSD will break last years high of 1.3661, or will the US dollar strengthen before reaching that point?
I think it will break it. There has to be a real hawkish display from the fed to prevent it. I think they'll trade off a gentle slowdown in the housing market and a booming stockmarket, for a weker dollar.
I have all the majors slamming into key levels at once. I think this is the big one. Look for a change in direction to unfold.
I have the EURUSD retreating back to 1.2435 before heading back up.
I couldn't resist
Long. 1.2867
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Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Long. 1.2867
Today was an excellent day for long
Quote from downrivertrader:
I have all the majors slamming into key levels at once. I think this is the big one. Look for a change in direction to unfold.
I have the EURUSD retreating back to 1.2435 before heading back up.
I couldn't resist
Sweet trade from 1.2218 on 04/06/2006 to 1.2835 today closed rest of my positions. Where wee are going from here? I believe up but don’t mater because I am out.
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Quote from jerry11901:
Sweet trade from 1.2218 on 04/06/2006 to 1.2835 today closed rest of my positions. Where wee are going from here? I believe up but don’t mater because I am out.
Short at 1.2859
Okay. I have done it.
Short at 1.2940
Using a 500 point stop
Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Long. 1.2867
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Quote from downrivertrader:
Okay. I have done it.
Short at 1.2940
Using a 500 point stop
I am going to TP at the 2840 area if it is there around 9:30. May go long here also.
Quote from downrivertrader:
Okay. I have done it.
Short at 1.2940
Using a 500 point stop
Quote from downrivertrader:
I am going to TP at the 2840 area if it is there around 9:30. May go long here also.
There is a lot of indecision at this level in the market and I am certain it is because 1.30 looms. Bulls just want to keep buying the dips here. I think the next hour or two could be critical to the bears case. My opinion is that we will see a downward move at some point, but I am not sure it is right now. The RSI now is attempting to cross above the OB line again. If it would fail to do that, I would see that as an opportunity to sell. Many times when a market has been moving up strongly like this one, it needs not only to have the Histogram divergence on hourlies, but also an RSI failure swing before the real down move occurs. Also, a third lower Histogram peak coinciding with RSI failure swing would be very strong. Absent those items, we may need higher price to get selling into the market. Mind you, this is only hourly chart analysis--not daily or weekly. As always when trading hourly charts, I would recommend at least a 100 pip stop loss.
I've lowered my buy stop to 1.2972 basis June futures. I will be dropping the stop each hour from here
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
There is a lot of indecision at this level in the market and I am certain it is because 1.30 looms. Bulls just want to keep buying the dips here. I think the next hour or two could be critical to the bears case. My opinion is that we will see a downward move at some point, but I am not sure it is right now. The RSI now is attempting to cross above the OB line again. If it would fail to do that, I would see that as an opportunity to sell. Many times when a market has been moving up strongly like this one, it needs not only to have the Histogram divergence on hourlies, but also an RSI failure swing before the real down move occurs. Also, a third lower Histogram peak coinciding with RSI failure swing would be very strong. Absent those items, we may need higher price to get selling into the market. Mind you, this is only hourly chart analysis--not daily or weekly. As always when trading hourly charts, I would recommend at least a 100 pip stop loss.
Quote from downrivertrader:
Okay. I have done it.
Short at 1.2940
Using a 500 point stop
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Does anyone ever come to this thread??
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Quote from Jeff1657:
Does anyone ever come to this thread??
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Long at 1.2909
Stopped at 1.2864 
Maybe a long later in the day when volitility picks up.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
There is a lot of indecision at this level in the market and I am certain it is because 1.30 looms. Bulls just want to keep buying the dips here. I think the next hour or two could be critical to the bears case. My opinion is that we will see a downward move at some point, but I am not sure it is right now. The RSI now is attempting to cross above the OB line again. If it would fail to do that, I would see that as an opportunity to sell. Many times when a market has been moving up strongly like this one, it needs not only to have the Histogram divergence on hourlies, but also an RSI failure swing before the real down move occurs. Also, a third lower Histogram peak coinciding with RSI failure swing would be very strong. Absent those items, we may need higher price to get selling into the market. Mind you, this is only hourly chart analysis--not daily or weekly. As always when trading hourly charts, I would recommend at least a 100 pip stop loss.
Down down down short.
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Hey
Closed at 1.2830 45+ pips
-Kastro
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1.2808 i think things are oversold.. im still buying.
Nobody gets it!
Quote from Surdo:
Nobody gets it!
Quote from spoofy:
1.2808 i think things are oversold.. im still buying.
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Hey
I am long right now
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this is a quote......
"Techincally, much also looks in the dollar's favor. Today's candle formed a bearish engulfing pattern, a fairly reliable reversal signal. MACD histogram looks set to complete its second negatively sloping bar. RSI just crossed through 70. Boris noted that the SSI ratio just flipped. USD Index hit a significant low at 83.70 and bounced like a rock. On top of all that, we have confirmation from nearly every single major. Buy USD (for a brief while - no more than a few weeks until everyone starts hating USD again)."
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I do not think you guys know how to recognise a trend or how to recognise when a trend is about to end.
Maria
Quote from bali_survivor:
I do not think you guys know how to recognise a trend or how to recognise when a trend is about to end.
Maria
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Quote from bali_survivor:
I do not think you guys know how to recognise a trend or how to recognise when a trend is about to end.
Maria
Things good for EUR/USD again , cover long.
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Quote from bali_survivor:
I do not think you guys know how to recognise a trend or how to recognise when a trend is about to end.
Maria
Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Things good for EUR/USD again
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Hey
I have not been on here for the past week or so because A friend of mine found out he has 2 months to live.
My EUR/USD trade has sure as hell cheered me up
Up 120+ pips
"EDIT" Also my USD/JPY trade has made my day - up 51 pips
Take care everyone,
-Kastro
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sorry to hear that Kastro. Kinda puts perspective on this whole trading thing and the time we spend on it, doesn't it
good trade, though.
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Quote from Ivanovich:
sorry to hear that Kastro. Kinda puts perspective on this whole trading thing and the time we spend on it, doesn't it
good trade, though.
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Quote from buzz:
I would say it over bought
It has only just started it's down move. there is a long way to go. I am short from 1,2887 target 1,2670 to 1,2700.
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Quote from buzz:
Target hit. 187 pips
Looks a nice long from here 1,2708 target 1,2750
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Trade2Win Sucks
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Things should be made as simple as possible, but not any simpler.
...... Trading and the time I spend doing this seems so insignificant.
In reality, IT IS!
P.S. Sorry for off subject comment.
Well, I'm not an expert on Forex, and I would never claim to be, but anyone notice the trend breakdown on EUR/USD?
Again, not good at this Forex stuff, but was messing around on demo. I decided to short.
I'll see if a breakdown of support occurs.
I am on DEMO, but just testing a few things on Forex as a backup to equities.
What do you all think?
Hey
Yes, I have seen it. Be cautious...The EURO has done things this month no one could understand.
Take care,
-Kastro
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Quote from JMowery1987:
Well, I'm not an expert on Forex, and I would never claim to be, but anyone notice the trend breakdown on EUR/USD?
Again, not good at this Forex stuff, but was messing around on demo. I decided to short.
I'll see if a breakdown of support occurs.
I am on DEMO, but just testing a few things on Forex as a backup to equities.
What do you all think?
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Things should be made as simple as possible, but not any simpler.
Hey
Short
Up 7 pips
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Sweet, maybe I can do this Forex for a longer timeframe and as a way to diversify my trading....
Sadly, my Forex demo ran out, I wasn't running StrategyBuilderFX, so my demo ended, I signed up for StrategyBuilderFX, so I'll have unlimited demo to mess around with.
Looks like support could possibly break in the future afterall, we will see. Attached another image.
Quote from JMowery1987:
Sweet, maybe I can do this Forex for a longer timeframe and as a way to diversify my trading....
Sadly, my Forex demo ran out, I wasn't running StrategyBuilderFX, so my demo ended, I signed up for StrategyBuilderFX, so I'll have unlimited demo to mess around with.
Looks like support could possibly break in the future afterall, we will see. Attached another image.
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Hey
Sold at .2717
30+ pips
-Kastro
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So now where we going?
Eur steep drop
Well, there's a sign, down 50 pips into market close. What do you guys think, is this the start of a new trend?
BTW, I am a noob. Shorted EUR this afternoon before the decline so while I'm happy about the 50 PIPS (is that a normal/decent profit? - whats a usual range?) I don't understand why the dollar would get stronger with the market dropping?
Thanks!
pkts
Ouuch! I was loaded up long.
[21:18 EUR/USD: Reverses Session Gains in a Blink] San Francisco, May 23. Just
quietly, there are not a lot of happy traders in late NY after the sharp bounce
back in the dollar in the last hour of trading. News that bird flu was being
transferred human-to-human was cited as one factor, other dealers hypothesize
that large orders from funds went through in a very illiquid market. This week"s
volatility has seen much more of the pass-the-parcel influence on trading.
EUR/USD, which was at 1.2870 and just shy of 1.2878 session highs near 04:00
this afternoon, triggered stops on the break under 1.2850 and at 1.2830 to trade
to current levels of 1.2815 where buying orders are place. Both HK and Middle
East names were seen buying near these levels earlier in the NY session. Some
traders are blaming the USD recovery on a late reaction to Bernanke"s comments
earlier in the day though many saw those as a reiteration of the last policy
statement. Buying interest remains on EUR at 1.2805/10 and 1.2780. Working
against the EUR are expectations that tonight"s IFO release will be soft
following the weak Belgian and French business sentiment released earlier today.
Hehe...I saw that. Shorted the Aussie and Kiwi and rode those puppies down a full 60 some odd points each.
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Wow. More carnage. Wiped out a whole week of profits for me. I am going to go cry for a while.
I have a key buy level at 2750 and now I do not know what to do???????
I do have some call options on the VIX. Maybe they will help tommorrow. Sigh
Quote from downrivertrader:
Wow. More carnage. Wiped out a whole week of profits for me. I am going to go cry for a while.
I have a key buy level at 2750 and now I do not know what to do???????
I do have some call options on the VIX. Maybe they will help tommorrow. Sigh
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The EUR is leaving a lot of people in a wreck. Which is why I haven't been playing it. There are other pairs far more lucrative at the moment.
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Okay. Made all my weeks wages back. Now I am
Long at 2750
Target 1 3040
Target 2 3140
If we close solidly below 2750 today, I will close up shop.
DRT
Yes. Wise move to stay away. I just can't. This is about 98% of my methodology. Few bonds here and there. Sigh again.
I have a tough time multi tasking so I just focus on a couple markets.
DRT
Quote from Ivanovich:
The EUR is leaving a lot of people in a wreck. Which is why I haven't been playing it. There are other pairs far more lucrative at the moment.
Quote from Ivanovich:
The EUR is leaving a lot of people in a wreck. Which is why I haven't been playing it. There are other pairs far more lucrative at the moment.
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Gold is going to 580, intraday reversal...
EDIT: Will help USD
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I considered this and I agree with a downward correction to some where, but I think it will be more of a continuing process than an event. I don't think the Goldies are ready to give up yet.
I hope the correction is a good one, cause I would like to load up on some in my long term account.
Guess we will see.
QUOTE]Quote from GlobalFinancier:
Gold is going to 580, intraday reversal...
EDIT: Will help USD [/QUOTE]
Descending Triangle has formed on the 30 minute on EUR/USD.
Recent trend lately has been a breaking out of a descending triangle... wonder what will happen for this one....
Breakout of a descending triangle, just like I said.
sell @61 target 10 pips
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flat at B/E news out 4 mins
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Every day i start liking forex better and better.
Starting to get a feel for it.
Been doing very well on my demo account just playing chart patterns that are very recognizable.
Figured I'd continue my thing of posting a screen shot every night.
Here's a good one
Here's a good one.....
15:44 EUR/USD: Reports of Heavy Two-Way Flows at Lows] Boston, May 26. Dealers
note talk of very heavy two-way flows close to the lows of the day. One account
is said to have sold up to a yard of EUR/USD around 1.2705 and was filled in by
a North Asian central bank and buy the supra-national name that was spotted
buying earlier in the 1.2730 area. Heavy buying of EUR/CHF is helping keep the
EUR/USD side of the trade very well bid at the moment. Offers are seen toward
1.2745 but dealers suspect a big squeeze will be seen if 1.2765 is overcome on
the topside.
I am going to exit here at 1.2987. Looks like we should head up but I see some significant resistance that has me wondering and it is best to watch a while for me.
Profit of 147 points.
I still see a better place to be long around 1.25 area but I not sure we will ever get there in my lifetime.
Good trading
DRT
Quote from downrivertrader:
Okay. Made all my weeks wages back. Now I am
Long at 2750
Target 1 3040
Target 2 3140
If we close solidly below 2750 today, I will close up shop.
DRT
I am short at 2925.
Target is 2455.
DRT
Brave. What's your logic for that trade?
I can't really explain it from a normal perspective that would help anyone else, but from my methodolgy..... I see the pair testing 1.27 again at a minimum. I follow price distribution on the monthly and weekly level and there is a lot of unresolved zones down below. The distribution curve favors resolution before the pair can move up in my opinion.
Today the dollar index hit a key level for me which indicates a fairly good move up. The USDJPY is also still in its range and my studies show this pair moving to near 114 at a minimum (maybe 115) and I think we will see some massive short coverage start to occur and dollar buying before this pair ultimately moves much lower.
If we get a close today in the 1.2880's (not to likely), we will back inside the triangle where we have been rangebound. Not very impressive follow thru after the NY boys got into it today in my opinion. I think there were a lot of sales at the top today.
Etc, etc, etc.
Clear as mud, but I am loaded up short.
DRT
I found the price action yesterday and particularly today to be interesting. All the movement came in one large move up within one hourly candle and I think the majority of it came in about 20 minutes. There was no continuation of the move yesterday or today. Volume on the CME for FX was above average, but not particularly high for such an "apparent" USD bearish report. I realize the move up was large, but generally the other time frame buyers would tend to react. One thing is for sure, price held the high level, built value and did not move down. About 55% of the days volume occurred near the top today.
This leads me to believe that buyers are already in to a high degree. Maybe good traders are beginning to sell this leg up. This is always the first sign that a change is near. Obviously we could use a correction but "when" is the key question. I think value is way out of whack at this point and I suspect smart traders will be patient and wait for a better entry in the 2525 -2545 area for instance.
I am short as stated above for a variety of reasons, and I will get out quickly if necessary as I think there is plenty of emotional gas left in this move that will send me running for cover. It seems like the consensus view has written off the dollar and that is a sure sign of a good time to exit.
The dollar obviously has some structural issues, but this is not a revelation in my opinion. I think rate hikes are still forthcoming. I am surprised everyone has discounted this so heavily.
I just wanted to bring it up. At least, this is what I observed.
I am sure there are lots of other valid opinions as to why we should head on up and I welcome the views.
Where has everyone gone? Is everyone counting their riches? I had a decent month in May, but it was brutal. I have been through every emotion known to traderdom lately.
Good trading everyone.
DRT
I am tempted to hold it until 1.20.
Nah, couldn't happen could it. Who was the Gann guy anyway? Hell, I do not even know how to intepret any of his stuff. But this chart shows it at the 1X1 line. First a test, then a pullback where we closed on Friday.
DRT
downrivertrader:
Here's some weekend thought, are there more stops located at 13000 right now or 12700 after another failed attempt at 13000? Or better yet take a look at cable/$, was it ready to fall out of bed last Friday, Monday, and again yesterday or after today's move will we see 19000 next week?
I give up. What is your answer.
Real Deal or False Break?
Interesting Fibo Thingamabob
Dialing for Dollars.
Inflection Point ?
If everyone just drove between these lines we would all be rich...make that wealthy. Sounds better. More appropriate for us currency traders.
Somebody figure out if this is one of those Gartley Butterfly things.
I find it interesting that I never look at these indicators/studies to base position entries on.......The only time I really dive into them is after I am in a position and feel uneasy and attempt to justify through what the herd looks at. After all how can you be short the EURUSD right now? Sometimes I hate my intuition, my gut, my constant watching of the order flow on the CME. I know everyone is postioned for the obvious up move. Those dang Central Banks selling to protect option barriers at 1.30. Or were they protecting option barriers? They are not traders anyway so trying to deduce any information from this is worthless. If the US wants a weak dollar, than damn it,the rest of the world will buy dollars just so Bush will be wrong and not benefit at all.
I better get to work on my exit strategy to make sure it is sound.
I have to admit I like playing with all this stuff. I have been showing my son how they relate to the DaVinci Code mania.
Technical Analysis is rubbish - Allen and Karjalainen (1999)
Found this one too. Is it a bunch of rubbish? Who is this Dan Brown guy anyway? Is he a trader?
Signed Mary M.
I am starting to get goosebumps. I typed the message above before I saw your post. We both used the same word. "Rubbish". I have not used that word since college. We had a guy on our soccer (futbol) team who used it all the time.
Quote from Remiraz:
Technical Analysis is rubbish - Allen and Karjalainen (1999)
Anther Dollar one that indcates change.
The Dollar Templar. I got a million of em I tell, a million.
Quote from downrivertrader:
I am starting to get goosebumps. I typed the message above before I saw your post. We both used the same word. "Rubbish". I have not used that word since college. We had a guy on our soccer (futbol) team who used it all the time.
This one represents the creation of the Euro and its path through time. Will we make history and go from the median channel line all the way to 2X deviation at the top with no pullback at all?
Or will we go back and test the median line to be sure that Fed and the ECB is going to do what everybody is "predicting" that it will do. A massive corrective dip, much like the dotcom, the gold bubble, the housing bubble. WHo wants to buy US debt anyway. Load me up on some Mexican or South American debt please.
Maybe Mr. Bernake can clear us up on this on Monday.
Might be in the CTA textbooks from this day forward.
But DRT, haven't you heard? The US dollar is doomed to collapse because of the current account, the deficit, El Nino, and er....I forgot what else. But it just has to go down, right? That's what everybody who is anybody is saying.
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Another View Down River
In an effort to get some life back here, I would like to offer the following view. One that will never be printed at Bloomberg or Reuters, etc. Mainly because I can't even really define an economic term, let alone forecast one. I am more of a "scenario" trader or a "theme" trader.
I tend to work backwards. Sometimes I have "hunches". Let's call this a hunch.
Okay. We all know any real change starts with an underlying change in fundamentals occurring beneath the surface. We all watch as the market trades on emotion and moves in the opposite direction of the way it "should" be headed for a time even after the fundamentals ground swell is occurring. So I ask myself, what would change the direction of this market. Also, is it even time to consider a change.
All the technicals that I "see" are telling me that we should move down for a corrective leg. Then it sure looks like a nice move up to levels unheard in the Euro. Up in the dollar index also for a while. It certainly appears time for this. (Throw in 1000 different EW scenarios that I don't understand here). Granted we have not had a real thrust yet (or was that Friday's move?) We are sitting at the 1.61% price extension of the recent move up and are testing it a second time.
Now step back and look at the big picture. (I call this the Ocean since the River flows toward it). Is this a new uptrend or is it just a corrective phase from the large dollar strengthening last year?
Being a trader and not an economist, I can not come up with anything positive about the dollar at this moment. That is, with the exception of one small and at one time powerful dollar mover.
FOMC = 5%
ECB = 2.5%
I realize there is more to the movement of a currency than interest rates, but will they come back in style soon? What is our "theme" for this commodity like (read Gold like) move up that has occurred? To be honest, I can not determine it. I do not think we are buying Euros, rather we are selling dollars. We are selling them extremely quickly too. Reflect back on the past few weeks. Even very good US data was ignored and the EURO moved up. There is a lot of "stuff" priced in rghit now.
Now here is how I see it for this week. Tommorrow Bernake will be hawkish to some media reported degree even if he tries not to say a word. Trichet will cast doubt by not using the word vigalent. BOJ will sit tight also but that is another thread. A good portion of the data coming out of the Eurozone will be moderate to negative this week. Is there really an economic recovery in the Eurozone? (Think about this one hard). There will be rumors leading up to the ECB announcement on Thursday. The finance ministers will be buzzing with rumors. On Thursday, the ECB will not hike. I repeat. Not hike even a 1/4%. This event will cause massive confusion and send the recent emotionally adjusted EURO much lower quickly. Inflation data will begin to heat up and the FOMC will hike again at their next meeting in June and again in August. Soon things will look like this.
FOMC = 5.75
ECB = 2.5
Long before this occurs the market will price it in (or take it out of where it resides currently). The F word will begin to creep in. Fear.
Now, lets take a high level non economist look at things. China comes to visit Gates (dig) and Bush. No big deal right? Wrong.
The G7 thing has been out of whack and was misinterpreted and is (I might add) priced in to the Euro at this moment.
Now here is the real story. Look at the Snow situation. Rumors abound. Bush comes out and says he has no intention of replacing Snow. He's doing a great job and the economy is humming along. Then a few days later a China friendly Wall Streeter who may just be strong dollar inclined takes the helm. Why did this occur? Did Bush have a senior moment when he said Snow was doing just fine. Do we have a man with testicles finally in this position? What is one of the main roles of this job? I think this was a huge event that has not been considered in the price of the EurUSD at the moment. Mark my words on this one. There will be a rise in authority at the Sec of Tres level that will come to be fully appreciated by all the world over. Even in China.
Could the US finally realize it is in a pickle and finally be ready to make some progress. Paulson was the first move. Do we really think the most powerful economy in the World that has "real" money that can dwarf emerging economies in a single bound will just fold up and go away like a bad dog with its tail between its legs. I will ask you again to lay out the massive recovery for me in the Eurozone. Germany will rise to power again, right? Or is it France? No, its the Brits bless their hearts. Industrial revolution and all.
Stare at that monthly chart again. Stare at it hard.
Watch the Gold and Copper thing. Any chance this could move south for more than the apparent short term correction. Its a buying opportunity right?
Until this begins to develop though, I will trade with my stops in place. Very close in fact. Hell, I may go long tommorrow.
DRT
All this talk about a dollar collapse makes me bullish. As does the fact that commercials are significantly bullish on USD. Not to mention the fundamentals are lining up for a potential dollar rally as well as the ECB rate increases should already be priced in and the probability of a long series of rate increases (like the ones US experienced) is low.
I have outlined a bunch of points on my report here: (NOTE: There is no commercial service being promoted. I already post this website on my equity journal on ET) http://www.aeroscapital.com/june0406.pdf
Good summary Mahras2. I keep my own graphs on the COT. I was not aware of the $USD index data. I have added it to my tracking. Thank you.
Last month saw the highest volume in history for the Euro FX contract. Looks like highest by over 1.4M contracts. What I find interesting and possibly a message is that if you look at the candle for the month of May you will see it closed near the middle of the range. This indicates to me that there were a significant number of sellers in this group. The COT data seems to somewhat confirm it.
If there is lower volume that follows, often this indcates a move down in this situation.
I will continue to look for reasons it should go down likely as it moves through 1.40
DRT
You welcome DRT. I personally do not follow fut volume but that info is definitely interesting. Looks like a confirmation of a contrarian play. You know that you should go contrary when you have "experts" telling you the dollar is going to collapse ;).
Quote from mahras2:
You welcome DRT. I personally do not follow fut volume but that info is definitely interesting. Looks like a confirmation of a contrarian play. You know that you should go contrary when you have "experts" telling you the dollar is going to collapse ;).
Everyone has there own style. What you describe is the style of a trend follower which I respect. However, I think there are ample traders out there who are profitable by trading market turns and being a contrarian. I doubt there is any great difference between the number of contrarian traders who are profitable to those of trend followers.
I do follow what the market tells me. If you notice I have also outlined an intermediate bullish proposition (if it breaks the recent high). However, I also happen to have a macro bias to my trading as well.
cot report
does anyone here base any opinoin on COT (commitment of traders) report ? of what the largest traders in the Us are doing ?
Fellow Traders - This may be historical. Have you considered this view. Are your blinders on or are you "listening" to the market. Bloomberg is talking current account this morning.
I figure this one will get you guys going.
DRT
I think your view on the rates are incorrect, DRT. Fed might hike this month, in fact I'm giving a slightly better than average chance that they do. ECB definitely will, but only .25 instead of the half point EUR bulls are insanely thinking.
Then the Fed will pause. The ECB may go another .25, but they will see a slowdown in the US as relief on hiking, as this slowdown will invariably affect them as well.
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Ivan,
You are good with fundamentals. Obviously the USD has a lot of issues that need correcting. What in your opionion is the key fundamental that would cause a shift in emotion in the market?
What will be the next big focus?
DRT
[13:06 EUR/USD: Talk of Only 25 bp Hike Thursday Weighs] Boston, June 5. After
getting revved up this morning over weekend reports that the ECB may hike 50 bp
on Thursday a report from a New York consulting shop suggesting only a 25 bp
hike is helping knock EUR/USD lower. Dealers see heavy selling from a German
name amid the slide into the 1.2920s. Bids are eyed near 1.2915 and again toward
1.2880/90.
I think the market is looking for direction, and so am I, to be honest.
Rates are played out. Yes, they have some actual financial backing (ie, better returns) and so they're never truly "played out". But the story about them is. The story about the ECB isn't, and hence it's receiving more attention. We all know the US is close to pausing - it's just a question of whether it is here or at the next meeting. The ECB has no indication of pausing ahead of them (even though Trichet himself has said to "not expect a series of hikes" - something the market conveniently continues to ignore).
In the lack of clear direction, dealers will follow the old stuff - the deficits, Iran, oil, a slowdown in the US economy....blah blah...
What I find amusing is the slowdown in the US economy. So the US slows to 3%. What's the EU's forecast for growth? 2%? 1.9? and that's a good year for them.
Look at the chart I've attached (that I got from Jack Crooks). That is the biggest sign I've seen this last month of a potential reversal.
The market just has to find a "why". The ECB hiking a measly .25% and a neutral or dovish statement about future hikes could do it.
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When I try to clear my head, this stands out. Like today, the ISM was ONLY 60. Has everyone forgotten that this is a good level?
Europe has to perform. I am not convinced.
Quote from Ivanovich:
What I find amusing is the slowdown in the US economy. So the US slows to 3%. What's the EU's forecast for growth? 2%? 1.9? and that's a good year for them.
Almost forgot another prediction.....
"US BEATS BRAZIL IN WORLD CUP FINAL"
Quote from downrivertrader:
Almost forgot another prediction.....
"US BEATS BRAZIL IN WORLD CUP FINAL"
__________________
-----------------
4X_is_4U
LOL! :
"EUR/USD is edging higher in very quiet trade ahead of what is expected to be a race among three of the world"s most important central bankers to say the word "vigilant" the most. The odds-makers have Trichet as the early favorite expecting him to be particularly vigilant, while Bernanke and Muto follow at strongly vigilant and just plain vigilant, respectively. The fun kicks off at 18:15 GMT, a bit over two hours from now. "
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Well now this is different, the EZ is approaching potential growth. What the hell is that?
Trichet is in a self-imposed "quiet time" ahead of the monthly policy meeting on
Thursday and says he will give no hints on policy at today"s event. He does say
that Eurozone productivity is badly hampered by weak productivity, but that
recent employment data has been "flattering" and the Euro Zone is approaching
potential growth.
EUR/USD has steadied after dipping as low as 1.2935 on rebounding odds of a June
rate hike. It trades now at 1.2940.
He's saying that the EZ econ is close to full capacity. Meaning hikes are ahead.
I find it funny he doesn't want to say anything about future policy - because all of his ECB buddies are chatting like a bunch of first-drunk school girls.
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Hey
Nice start to the month.
Closed EUR/USD short - 42+ pips
Closed just one of my USD/CAD longs with 39 + pips
Take care,
-Kastro
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Euro needs to hold 1.2795 if it expects to turn this around. Failure to do that will send a lot of folks scrambling.
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I agree. I think there may be a big pop out of the 28 level also. Key area for more reasons than just being an even number.
Here's what I see in general....
1.2837 area - If we build value around here and close back above at the end of the day. It may be time to close up shop.
1.2777 - This is the next key level down and a big one. I expect a pop out of here and then above applies. Building value here and moving thru this level in the wake of the Thursday announcement would be very bearish
1.2636 - next level down.
1.2435 - This is really the key. There will be massive buying here if it ever makes it. If we build value down here and move below. I will load the truck with some more has I see a move much lower.
If the ECB would just say NO hike. I will feel better. Bond market is sending me mixed signals also.
DRT
PS - I am watching the USDJPY closely. The move above 112.50 was very significant in my opinion. So far it has not been knocked down substantially. If we settle comfortable above this 112.50 level today, I see some big moves up here also. Jury is out on this but I am long for now.
Update. Not overwhelming but encouraging somewhat
The ECB isn't going to say "no hike", so if I were you, I'd get that out of your head to avoid disappointment right now. You'll see a quarter point. I might be wrong, but when it comes to rates I'm usually not.
Interestingly enough, a whole lot of 1.26 EUR ops were purchased today.
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I think that Paulson asked them nicely yesterday and they said "just this once".
Riiight!
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The $Index has slammed into 84.90 which I have a key level. If it get thru there in front of Thursday I will be surprised. I'm not sure the old gal has it in her.
18:04 EUR/USD: Consolidation Continues after Jawboning] Boston, June 6. The
past several months have been remarkable in that European finance ministers have
mostly refrained from trying to talk down the EUR. The gloves came of today
though as Junkers, the head of the Euro Group, Solbes, the Spanish finance
minister and former EU economic czar, as well as Grasser, Austria"s finance
minister. While the group will claim not to be trying to influence ECB policy,
the stepped up attack on the EUR two days before the first ECB meeting in years
where a 50 bp hike will be discussed is hardly coincidental.
The IMF is weighing in with similar sentiments, saying there is room for some
tightening of ECB policy but that conditions for substantial tightening are not
in place. The strong EUR is hindering Eurozone growth and the strong EUR signals
the need for caution on rates.
EUR/USD is consolidating losses in the low 1.2820s. 1.2800/10 bids are eyed on
dips; more are seen at 1.2780/90.
Hmm...who was it that called the 25bps hike only while the market was screaming half a point?
Let me think for a minute...
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Although there was a challenge to the 2837 level near the end of the day. It held. I am still short for now from 2925.
DRT
Quote from downrivertrader:
I agree. I think there may be a big pop out of the 28 level also. Key area for more reasons than just being an even number.
Here's what I see in general....
1.2837 area - If we build value around here and close back above at the end of the day. It may be time to close up shop.
1.2777 - This is the next key level down and a big one. I expect a pop out of here and then above applies. Building value here and moving thru this level in the wake of the Thursday announcement would be very bearish
1.2636 - next level down.
1.2435 - This is really the key. There will be massive buying here if it ever makes it. If we build value down here and move below. I will load the truck with some more has I see a move much lower.
If the ECB would just say NO hike. I will feel better. Bond market is sending me mixed signals also.
DRT
PS - I am watching the USDJPY closely. The move above 112.50 was very significant in my opinion. So far it has not been knocked down substantially. If we settle comfortable above this 112.50 level today, I see some big moves up here also. Jury is out on this but I am long for now.
Nice downmove on the EURUSD. Its at the 100EMA level on the H4 timeframe. As always remember that 50 (not on H4 though)/100/200 EMA levels can act as significant S&R levels. This is due to market participants (particularly trend followers) focusing on these levels to initiate positions.
I covered my shorts with nice profits (entry at 1.2900 with exit at 1.2822. stop was on the upside of the S&R level at 1.2932).
I am going to wait for break of the 100EMA and the trendline on the EURUSD H4 timeframe before initiating positions.
Nice job on the short as well DRT.
Ivan,
Did you see the metrics summary from Jack Crooks today. This was what I was trying to say, but he did it in a much better way.
Not sure if it will hold up, but when you remove all the emotion this is what it boils down to.
DRT
Same to you. Nice trade.
Right now I am holding my short. 1.2750 is the key value area for the EURUSD. Up until this weekend, I had been planning on taking a long on a spike down in front of this area which may happen today. We would then push on up to very high levels. I changed my plan this weekend after further high level consderation. I am in my trade with a nice profit and if the bounce gains momentum I will cover. What I really want to see is this 2750 area give way and a settle below. My target is now much lower. It's a toss up in my opinion. If the bounce does occur then I will get long up above 2837 or above somewhere.
Even riskier is my long position on the USDJPY. I use this as a barometer for change. I see signs of this pair heading back up to 120 instead of the lower levels I think most are targeting. If this scenario begins to play out, I will feel much more comfortable with some modest dollar strength.
The markets always tend to surprise us don't they. We are all quick to forget when emotions take over.
Good trade on the short.
DRT
Quote from mahras2:
Nice downmove on the EURUSD. Its at the 100EMA level on the H4 timeframe. As always remember that 50 (not on H4 though)/100/200 EMA levels can act as significant S&R levels. This is due to market participants (particularly trend followers) focusing on these levels to initiate positions.
I covered my shorts with nice profits (entry at 1.2900 with exit at 1.2822. stop was on the upside of the S&R level at 1.2932).
I am going to wait for break of the 100EMA and the trendline on the EURUSD H4 timeframe before initiating positions.
Nice job on the short as well DRT.
If you mean Jack's 6/7 report - haven't gotten to work yet. He emails it there.
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I hope its okay to do this. I thought is was very interesting and would help so if I am not supposed to do this, I apologize. This the free report that he sends not the subscription service.
DRT
Quote from Ivanovich:
If you mean Jack's 6/7 report - haven't gotten to work yet. He emails it there.
It's ok because he posts them on the net at blackswantrading.com
So I'm sure he doesn't care. But I read the report (am at work now). Nothing there is surprising and if you follow my comments back a few months in this thread, I have been sticking to this theme for a while.
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Well the 2837 level held last night. We are working the 2777 area as of 11:00 today. This is about where I had planned on getting long and it sure looks like it wants to explode out of here. I am staying short with a move back above 2800 convincing me to close up. If we somehow get thru the 2750 value area, then a move down from value, my short will have more of chance to make some serious profit I think.
Still short from 2925.
DRT
Quote from downrivertrader:
I agree. I think there may be a big pop out of the 28 level also. Key area for more reasons than just being an even number.
Here's what I see in general....
1.2837 area - If we build value around here and close back above at the end of the day. It may be time to close up shop.
1.2777 - This is the next key level down and a big one. I expect a pop out of here and then above applies. Building value here and moving thru this level in the wake of the Thursday announcement would be very bearish
1.2636 - next level down.
1.2435 - This is really the key. There will be massive buying here if it ever makes it. If we build value down here and move below. I will load the truck with some more has I see a move much lower.
If the ECB would just say NO hike. I will feel better. Bond market is sending me mixed signals also.
DRT
PS - I am watching the USDJPY closely. The move above 112.50 was very significant in my opinion. So far it has not been knocked down substantially. If we settle comfortable above this 112.50 level today, I see some big moves up here also. Jury is out on this but I am long for now.
The Old Gal is trying hard
I've had enough for now. Out at 1.2804. +121 Points. I will wait for the big news tommorrow and see if the rocket ship takes off.
Good trading everyone.
DRT
Quote from downrivertrader:
Well the 2837 level held last night. We are working the 2777 area as of 11:00 today. This is about where I had planned on getting long and it sure looks like it wants to explode out of here. I am staying short with a move back above 2800 convincing me to close up. If we somehow get thru the 2750 value area, then a move down from value, my short will have more of chance to make some serious profit I think.
Still short from 2925.
DRT
My call is still that they'll hike 25bps, and the press conference will yield Trichet speaking in a neutral tone. This should, and I emphasize "should", cause a sell off in EUR. The next ECB hike, at this point and given EUR strength, politics and data, be sometime late 3Q.
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So is the press conference the event instead of the actual hike? Assuming they hike 1/4 % that is.
I hate when he speaks....you just never know what he is going to say when they ask a question?
I can hear it now...."What about the strong Euro Ms. Trichet? Will this have any influence on your future moves?"
DRT
The initial disappointment from some market kooks that a half point raise doesn't occur will make some movement. But the press conference is a long, drawn out event afterwards and after Mr. T tells the market he "pities the fool that raises rates too high" they'll back off even more.
Of course I could be the kook and they could raise a half point. But I seriously doubt that - since they know it'll send the Euro to the moon, and that's not what they want.
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Just curious--What time is the announcement and press conference.
Announcement is usually 7:45 EST
Press Conference follows at 8:30
As I expected, quarter point. Now let's see if the rest of my prophecy was true, and Trichet talks neutral going forward with a "we'll need to be viligant, but data dependant" type speech.
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And there it is:
"Boston, June 8. Trichet is suitably hawkish in his initial comments, saying growth the Eurozone is re- accelerating and that rates remain low and accommodative. Surely future hikes are ahead, but timing remains unclear at present. EUR/USD is off lows at 1.2670/73 but holding below 1.2695/00 resistance. Its average growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% in 2006 and says it is closely monitoring developments. Sounds like they too are data-dependant."
And bing, EUR/USd drops below its 1.2675 mark.
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Err...heh...
"Trade-wise: we have been informed that 3mth 1.1900 EUR puts traded in an estimated E1.5bn at 9.0 pct earlier today"
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nice call, ivanovich
May be a good buy lurking here.
Signed lurker
The DOW is down just a tad. Its the old 5 day crash.
I am short bonds...ouch. Still holding them long term though.
Yet another nice looking downmove with the rate stopping its decline at the Support level outlined in the weekly report.
Went short at the break of the 100EMA on the H4 as I had noted before (entry: 1.2789, initial stop: 1.2825), trailed stops as it went down and was taken out at 1.2661 for 128 pips).
DRT> Looks like you did well holding those shorts.
Interesting.........
Chart on the 4 hour timeframe. A huge move down after breaking the 200 MA.
Question is, will the price rebound and move back up to bounce off the 200 MA, or will it break this support area and just drop some more?
If 2636 holds, then
2681
2777 Likely retrace
2837
above 2837 and we may move back up
DRT
Looks like COT reports show further bearish bias in the EURUSD rate with the US Index staying about constant. Commercials increased their bearish EURUSD bets while the specs increased their bets on bullish EURUSD bets.
Key reports to look out for would be CPI and PPI. Bernanke, I believe, will be running an exclusively data driven Fed with rates moving up and down whenever the data indicates it (unlike Greenspan who increased rates gradually etc). Think early-mid 1990s when rates were increased suddenly.
If anyone is interested weekly report is here: http://www.aeroscapital.com/june1106.pdf
Good trading to all.
I still see a move up to 1.2777 before we head down.
Not a bad report, Mahras.
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Quote from downrivertrader:
I still see a move up to 1.2777 before we head down.
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4X_is_4U
4XIS4U - here's one way to look at it. Create a 60 min close-only line chart for the pair, draw ya a horizontal line at the 2775 area, and note all the price hits - in the spirit of yer 'ole S&R. Also, one can easily see where the breakdown hit the open waters.
I'm sure DRT's reasoning is much more sophisticated, but sometimes KISS can show ya things too.
My methodology tells me that more resolution of value needs to occur above where we are trading now (2592) before we will move down. I know this is not much and I am sorry I can not explain it better.
There is a balance point that exists at 2750. This is where value exists for all. I just think we will work back toward it, before we head down.
Common sense always works. Ask yourself, what really changed last week??? Did it warrant such a sudden shift in sentiment. Maybe, but I think we need to retest the idea first. Lots of data this week, it will likely be an ugly time so be careful with your trades.
DRT
Quote from 4XIS4U:
downrivertrader -- can you expand on the reasons for the 1.2777 please? tkx.
Actually, yes, it did warrant a shift in sentiment. All you have to do is look at Fed Futures last week versus this one. Last week we were well below 50% of a hike end of June. Now, it's 86%.
Perception of the Fed changed massively. Don't ask me why, though. I've been saying the Fed will hike end of June for...oh about a month and a half now.
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Disagree. The reaction is not warranted. What did he really say that we did not know....??? That he is concerned about inflation. Now that's a revelation. Problem is the market got ahead of itself.
Also, don't forget...
Until the move down that everyone is waiting for actually occurs, then we are still in a range bound market. This is eveidenced by CB plays in the last couple days.
Quote from downrivertrader:
Disagree. The reaction is not warranted. What did he really say that we did not know....??? That he is concerned about inflation. Now that's a revelation. Problem is the market got ahead of itself.
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Here's one that presents an interesting view. Stetched a 2 SD regression channel from the 2000 lows to the 2004 high and guess where we are sitting. We have pulled back in the channel and are testing the bottom. Now this looks like a long to me, but who knows.
Sorry for the size, but it is a big one.
DRT
I am likely going to get long in the 2480 to 2540 area.
DRT
Interesting, although that regression channel since the introduction of the Euro doesn't look right to me. It's got the correct angle, but the regression line seems to be drawn about 10 handles too high. If so, we are not testing the lower 2 SD band yet. (Not that I think it would in any way prevent the resumption of the uptrend you anticipate.)
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Don't believe everything you think.
The median line extends from October 26, 2000 to Dec 31, 2004. It does not start with the introduction of the Euro, rather the high and low. Why don't you post a similar chart. I am not sure what is wrong but it looks correct to me on this end.
DRT
Quote from late apex:
Interesting, although that regression channel since the introduction of the Euro doesn't look right to me. It's got the correct angle, but the regression line seems to be drawn about 10 handles too high. If so, we are not testing the lower 2 SD band yet. (Not that I think it would in any way prevent the resumption of the uptrend you anticipate.)
Falling knife, gentlemen. Wait for the bottom, then go long. So you miss a few pips calling the bottom. Big deal. They'll be plenty of pips on the next upswing.
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why not short? all the way back to 1.20... remember, europe's closed for business all summer long... not exactly good for growth, employment, consumption etc is it?
short for sure, look at waves and fundamentals
Quote from downrivertrader:
The median line extends from October 26, 2000 to Dec 31, 2004. It does not start with the introduction of the Euro, rather the high and low. Why don't you post a similar chart. I am not sure what is wrong but it looks correct to me on this end.
DRT
__________________
Don't believe everything you think.
I am still on the sidelines for now.
18:03 EUR/USD: Asian Central Banks Load Up At 1.2530 / Stop EUR Rout] New York
June 13. Well the central bank bids from Europe at 1.2550 may have disappeared,
however Asian central banks were reportedly loading up the truck in the 1.2530s.
Dealers noted that some of the 1.2500 barriers expired this morning at the 10.00
AM NY fix, which also eased some of the pressure on EUR/USD.
Quote from 2cents:
why not short? all the way back to 1.20... remember, europe's closed for business all summer long... not exactly good for growth, employment, consumption etc is it?
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1.20 a complete exaggeration of course... unless oil drops in lockstep and even then, that wld prob drive US Trade Balance to south of -$70bio, therefore bringing the $ back in line on deficit type concerns alone...
re pausing however, whilst i agree a pause is the logical step post-june hike, don't forget that 1) a pause at 5.25% risk-free rate (while EUR 'may' raise by an extra 25bps within the next few months) is not the same as a pause at 4% level, 2) the physionomy of the mkt is very different from 2 days ago, now that tons of retail accts have been burned to death...
other than just the carry trade, what shld boost the $ imo is the simple fact that i wld expect better returns on US domestic assets in general than on any equivalent european asset classes... just a view (from a european passport holder...)
I think there's serious risk to the dollar as soon as the word "pause" gets back out there. Now, that being said, Fed Futures hike probability is now 100% for June - and they're talking about pricing another hike now. I think the "other hike" is a bit premature at this point. Ben's not stupid (despite armchair QBs here on the forums claiming he is). I think he'll want to pause after this one just to pop his head up and take a look around and see what effect all of these hikes are taking on the economy.
I'm not saying they're done, just that they'll take a break for a month. At that point, it'll become "everyone hates the Dollar" time again, and people will find a whole host of reasons to sell the dollar just because.
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i don't disagree with that, but EC numbers may disappoint as well, in which case let's see... btw FFF for july etc expiries have all moved 5-7bp on the CPI figure... thats an additional 20-28% prob factored in already... not small! aug FFF already prices in a 40% prob... may not take much...
which tools do you guys use to trade? any recommendations? and why?
thanks!
other thing... seems clear there is no (military) urgency in iran, let's say (hope) things get better in iraq, that means an improved budget deficit outlook...
we know the CBs will continue to hike rates even at the expense of a few growth points if oil & commodities don't get back to non-inflationary levels (way more damaging if kicks in for real than a mild recession...)... now there is always the poss of a real nasty hurricane, or two, or terrorist attacks against oil installations etc... that would delay the desired readjustment...
the flat / mildly inverted yield curve is a non-issue, the treasury will be taking care of resteepening http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...874#post1099874
next housing figures won't be pretty after whats just happened, but that's just a healthy climbdown of an over-speculative mkt... rather a good thing
now on the basis of the above working assumptions, i.e. essentially, inflation risks will be controlled, growth will decelerate but thats still growth, no major blow-ups in the US, less geopolitical tension leading to a better outlook for the US budget deficit, all other things being equal (hehe) what's the outlook for the $?
well, #1 risk is a serious blow-up / default in china... no enron / worldcom type failures for years in china... if you don't find that strange... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...469#post1079469 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...239#post1096239
with the current slowdown, if growth gets even softer, summer might be a good time for a big fat china crisis... when it happens, commodities plunge, trade with china shrinks etc...
lets say it doesn't... if budget deficit worries abate, $ gets stronger, which in the current environment & with summer round the corner shldn't necessary fuel much if any additional consumption (temporary negative 'wealth' effect due to the recent correction), therefore TB (Trade Balance) may remain in the current range, or even improve... in any case one shld expect NFSP (net foreign securities purchases) inflows to continue / increase markedly, which shows confidence & reinforces $-strength...
up to what point? dunno but i know i can't build an equalling 'compelling' (ahem...) case for EUR appreciation...
just rambling of course ;-) nite all!
Oh, I'm completely with you that - compared to the US, the EZ's financials are shockingly poor. But that never mattered to the market before.
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I think 1.20 may be right on. Likely way beyond this level.
Quote from 2cents:
1.20 a complete exaggeration of course... unless oil drops in lockstep and even then, that wld prob drive US Trade Balance to south of -$70bio, therefore bringing the $ back in line on deficit type concerns alone...
re pausing however, whilst i agree a pause is the logical step post-june hike, don't forget that 1) a pause at 5.25% risk-free rate (while EUR 'may' raise by an extra 25bps within the next few months) is not the same as a pause at 4% level, 2) the physionomy of the mkt is very different from 2 days ago, now that tons of retail accts have been burned to death...
other than just the carry trade, what shld boost the $ imo is the simple fact that i wld expect better returns on US domestic assets in general than on any equivalent european asset classes... just a view (from a european passport holder...)
Not beyond this level until Russia, the mid-east and whatever Asian sovergn is propping the mid 1.25 level decides to pull out.
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They sold at the top today.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Not beyond this level until Russia, the mid-east and whatever Asian sovergn is propping the mid 1.25 level decides to pull out.
Not what my source is saying...
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I was wondering how everyone is positioned right now? Long, Short or Flat and waiting for confirmation. If you care to say that is. I don't think we have very many who visit here which really surprises me. Is it me, or does ET have a lack of currency traders?
If you follow this thread, you may recall I was fortunate to catch the turn near the top at 2925. I stayed short until 2804 and got out. I have had a couple short term trades since then, but I regret not having the fortitude to stay short. Once the market went below 2750, I have waited for a good place to get long.
My plan has been to get long around 2480, but opportunity has rocketed away so far. I have been through a lot of mental torture on this one and I have decided to enter short at 2638. Every thing says get long to me, but it just doesn't feel right and I just can not for the life of me figure out why I would want to own Euros.
So.....I have loaded the boat and am short at 2638. I am expecting to battle for this one. Today was a good example. I see a lot of downside and I realize you all may think I am blind. One of the main drivers for me is my call on the USDJPY. I am long this pair. I think most expect the Yen to appreciate and for us to have a false break out try to fill the gap up top. I think we are going to a minimum of 120 and beyond and I have a full postion long on this pair also.
Just rambling, what is everyone else doing.
DRT
Is it me, or does ET have a lack of currency traders?
.
Short from resistance since earlier today... hasn't moved.
I'm considering opening a real account at either FXDD or InterbankFX. Should be interesting.
I got up (or is it could not sleep) to watch the European action today. Something that I guess I will never understand.....
The Eurozone Industrial Production numbers came out at 5:00 AM this morning. They were dismal and completely out of line with forecast. The price action did not even move. No reaction. In fact, if anything the Euro kept moving up. Does anyone know why the Euro data has very little effect on prices many times? If this had happened in the US we would have had severe price movement. I guess I am missing something and the Eurozone is in another industrial revolution.
This is why I hate owning Euros.
8 EUR/USD: EZ IP Slump Fails To Dent Rally] London, June 16. Eurozone
Industrial Production slumped in April by 0.6% but the thus far the dismal
easing has failed to dent the morning EUR rally. The contraction totally
reverses the previous +0.6% reading as all sub-sectors fell. The yearly data was
also below expectations as the +1.9% fell well below the +3.2% consensus
forecast.
This is because EU data matters approximately 1/5th as much as US data when it comes to USD pairs. This has always been the case.
People love to hate the USD.
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Okay. I think I realize this but again, we are selling dollars and not buying Euros based on anything but hatred.
DRT
Quote from Ivanovich:
This is because EU data matters approximately 1/5th as much as US data when it comes to USD pairs. This has always been the case.
People love to hate the USD.
Okay folks. I can't explain why exactly, but this is a day of reckoning. May not seem like it to most, but I can feel it.
I am an official dollar bull from now until further notice. I will be one you love to hate for a while. I think this thread needs it anyway.
The current account data will be the last straw for most. Either today or early next week the dollar will embark on a journey south. I think it will last for much of the summer and into early fall. Commodities will continue to correct and US bond yields will also rise.
My plan is to take some of my amassed fortune and begin to acquire natural resource commodities later this year for the muli year bull run.
I am short ( a bunch) at 1.2638. Here is my near term target where I expect lots of battle and indecision before we continue on south.
1.2435 on or before end of March.
Ultimate target is 1.13 - 1.10
The clue for this was the price action in the USD/JPY, a dangerous indicator. Most feel it is but a trap luring unsuspecting bulls in only to plummet them a little above 115. I know better, it is true dollar strength.
Good luck today.
DRT
(Eternal Dollar Bull for now)
Quote from downrivertrader:
Okay. I think I realize this but again, we are selling dollars and not buying Euros based on anything but hatred.
DRT
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Boston, June
16. AFX reports that Russia and the Paris Club have agreed on a deal for Russia
to pay down $22 bln in debt early. This likely explains a good bit of the steady
Russian buying interest on dips in recent days. Some may be going for reserve
diversification as well. This deal has been in the works for some time, and does
not come as a surprise.
The EUR is getting a bounce from the 1.2620/25 area, however. Offers are seen
toward 1.2650 and again toward 1.2675/85 and 95.
I guess I do not fully understand your real question here? Is it your intent to employ a trading methodology which is based on EOD closes? Long Term Trades or Position trades or One day trades? Of course you can do this. There is no real close to the Forex market in my opinion, so you will have to establish one yourself based on your research.
I think this may be a tough road, but that's just my opinion.
Here's a good way to make money in the forex market. Set your close for 5:00 PM EST after the US session. Now forget the close because it is not important in trading.
Instead call it the Open. At 4:00 AM the following day, (European) do the following.
If price is below the Open buy. Sell to cover this when price reaches the Open.
If price is above the Open. Sell short. Buy to cover when price reaches the open.
Throw in a couple rules here. If price is in a runaway state, (maybe more than 60 points or something due to an event don't take the trade. Close the trade around 10:10 if price has not returned to the open no matter what.
You can make all the money you need trading this strategy as there is an underlying reason it works. Stop losses are not allowed so you need to make sure you are working out and your health is good. Coffee should also be consumed well before 8:00.
Good luck and send me 10%. PM me and I will give you my bank account number.
DRT
Quote from OddTrader:
"Is EOD trading for Forex (EUR/USD) possible?"
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...?threadid=71248
Quote from downrivertrader:
I guess I do not fully understand your real question here? Is it your intent to employ a trading methodology which is based on EOD closes? Long Term Trades or Position trades or One day trades?
__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner
I think I will Buy it today at 1.2580 for
1.2685 late monday
__________________
KaL
http://www.kal.dvdzak.com/Currencies.htm
GL and Happy trades
Oh no, the e-wave guy is back under a new name with his "if it does not go down, expect it to go up" posts.
Great site, by the way. Only one thing I'd change: If you're going to use English as your language of choice, you really should learn it first.
"Enjoys your day"
"Easy like to ask an Hamburger"
I tell ya, with English that good, I'm sure inspired to trust you with my money!
Where the hell is ".ar" the symbol for on the 'net?
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What the hell is the link? Is it a gambling site? Locks my screen up.
In addition to poor English, it has poor programming. Java errors and such.
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Isn't that dailies looks like a bear flag? I have opened a short position at 2671, with 15 pips stop and 200 pips target.
I'm with you on the short, nearly the same area, with a stop at 1.2705.
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These look like good trades to me....with tight stops.
The potential is definitely for a move up though. If price breaks the 2666 area strongly. I show 2699 and 2723 area next.
I am already short.
Good luck.
I'm not comfortable with this trade, though. I smell "stupid" in the air. The fundamentals are still the same, but market sentiment is still not enough to push the EUR back down where it should be. Additionally, commodities look like they're gaining in the face of decreasing liquidity. People are yapping about Russia, and the Mid-East still, and on top of all that, Skalpz is back again and there's a full moon.
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Put your shirt on inside out. It will be okay.
It is actually a Waxing Cresent Moon. 15% of full moon.
My stop is set at 1.44
Stop? Or margin call?
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Closed at 1.2595 support. 80 pips.
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Quote from Ivanovich:
Closed at 1.2595 support. 80 pips.
Quote from Ivanovich:
I smell "stupid" in the air. and on top of all that, Skalpz is back again and there's a full moon.
- when are ya gonna open another short on EUR/USD? I need the money!)
Nice trades fellas. Moon lined up with Saturn just right.
Any thoughts on the bottom? Will it give tommorrow before the weekend or never give way?
DRT
Quote from downrivertrader:
Nice trades fellas. Moon lined up with Saturn just right.
Any thoughts on the bottom? Will it give tommorrow before the weekend or never give way?
DRT
Quote from DrawDown:
(sorry to rain on your parade, Ivansky.
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And I thought it was the Russians buying for the Paris Club Debt Repayment. Just goes to show you...
I tend to agree with RT.
Quote from RunTrade:
bottomed out today at 1.2557...if it doesnt break that by the end of the week, i believe that will be the bottom for some time to come
I'm holding a short trade in EUR/USD - one position open @ 1.2301 and another position at 1.2532. Average price 1.2416. Looks like I'm stuck in the middle of the grimy forex up to my waist-deep in the muck.
Quote from Ivanovich:
I'll let you know. Did you pay me today?
I don't know. I just assumed since you believe that when I lose a trade, it goes to you - that when I win a trade and you lose, it goes to me. Stupid reasoning, I know. But that's what you continue to post.
Similar stupidity to going both short and long on a pair or doing something like not using stops....whoops, my bad! You do that too!
__________________
There is no spoon.
Quote from DrawDown:
I tend to agree with RT.
Unless the market does some lunacy (can't rule that out).
DD
__________________
There is no spoon.
Quote from Ivanovich:
*buzzer*...oh, sorry. What do we have for him, Johnny?
Quote from Ivanovich:
I don't know. I just assumed since you believe that when I lose a trade, it goes to you - that when I win a trade and you lose, it goes to me. Stupid reasoning, I know. But that's what you continue to post.
Similar stupidity to going both short and long on a pair or doing something like not using stops....whoops, my bad! You do that too!
Quote from DrawDown:
I tend to agree with RT.
Unless the market does some lunacy (can't rule that out).
DD
__________________
-----------------
4X_is_4U
Quote from RunTrade:
Runtrade wins an exit at his stop loss!!!!
thank you thank you
__________________
There is no spoon.
Quote from 4XIS4U:
Can you guys explain to me why you think it bottomed today? I see a broken bearish flag on the daily chart and going towards a 50-62% retracement area...
__________________
There is no spoon.
Not a technical trader but...
Quote from 4XIS4U:
Can you guys explain to me why you think it bottomed today? I see a broken bearish flag on the daily chart and going towards a 50-62% retracement area...
Hey guys,
On 4 hr+ charts we got 3 major corrective waves down. (bottom at 1.2476)
Then 5 waves up ended today.
This is a strong bull signal. But there needs to be a correction to the 5 wave impulse wave. sideways or deep is the only question. Usually is a deep 78% retrace after a wave like this.
but over all up trend should resume shortly a s/l below the 1.2476 low is a good place.
a wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% wave 1. Only that will blow the bull theory.
Dave
__________________
It is failer, only when accepted as the final result.
Otherwise it is mearly a speedbump on the road to success.
late in todays day session someone was bidding for size in
EUR ... now was this real or "spoof" ... I do not know
the bid was approx 1.2645 for over 500 Eur - fx Sep Futures
now it will be interesting to see if size shows up again
at those levels or if size trades there ( hidden order ) ?
or if the whole thing was a "bluff - spoof" that never
got tested and hour or so ago
I saw it too. It was at 1.2645 (FX)
Quote from SethArb:
late in todays day session someone was bidding for size in
EUR ... now was this real or "spoof" ... I do not know
the bid was approx 1.2645 for over 500 Eur - fx Sep Futures
now it will be interesting to see if size shows up again
at those levels or if size trades there ( hidden order ) ?
or if the whole thing was a "bluff - spoof" that never
got tested and hour or so ago
Quote from downrivertrader:
I saw it too. It was at 1.2645 (FX)
Okay the hell with the dollar bull thing.
I covered my trade at 2521 for a 117 point profit. I am now long (a bunch) at .12519.
Makes my head spin. Fed should move the needle tommorrow.
Too much priced in the down move in my opinion.
DRT
Quote from downrivertrader:
Okay folks. I can't explain why exactly, but this is a day of reckoning. May not seem like it to most, but I can feel it.
I am an official dollar bull from now until further notice. I will be one you love to hate for a while. I think this thread needs it anyway.
The current account data will be the last straw for most. Either today or early next week the dollar will embark on a journey south. I think it will last for much of the summer and into early fall. Commodities will continue to correct and US bond yields will also rise.
My plan is to take some of my amassed fortune and begin to acquire natural resource commodities later this year for the muli year bull run.
I am short ( a bunch) at 1.2638. Here is my near term target where I expect lots of battle and indecision before we continue on south.
1.2435 on or before end of March.
Ultimate target is 1.13 - 1.10
The clue for this was the price action in the USD/JPY, a dangerous indicator. Most feel it is but a trap luring unsuspecting bulls in only to plummet them a little above 115. I know better, it is true dollar strength.
Good luck today.
DRT
(Eternal Dollar Bull for now)
Buddy, that's a COINZ trade!
Quote from downrivertrader:
Okay the hell with the dollar bull thing.
I covered my trade at 2521 for a 117 point profit. I am now long (a bunch) at .12519.
Makes my head spin. Fed should move the needle tommorrow.
Too much priced in the down move in my opinion.
DRT
Great work.
Rocketman
long at 1.2555 and short at 1.2520. Thats all you can really do at this point since i really doubt there is going to be a huge price move b4 the fomc decision. Look out for stop hunting, we all know its going to happen so just prepare.
Its better to miss 50 points in a 100-150 point move than to get whipped around a few times and getting horrible fills as the news comes out.
__________________
So its harvard or Wall Street again hu?
"No, its Wall Street or nothing"
-Jesse Livermore-
I just took half off at 2645. Will add some back once I get my barrings if warranted.
+126 Points
Quote from downrivertrader:
Okay the hell with the dollar bull thing.
I covered my trade at 2521 for a 117 point profit. I am now long (a bunch) at .12519.
Makes my head spin. Fed should move the needle tommorrow.
Too much priced in the down move in my opinion.
DRT
Went long EUR/USD right before Fed release. Closed out on the rejection for a very nice profit.
More upmoves in the days ahead as the market realizes the Fed is done for this cycle.
__________________
There is no spoon.
IVANSKY! Da Maaaan.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Went long EUR/USD right before Fed release. Closed out on the rejection for a very nice profit.
More upmoves in the days ahead as the market realizes the Fed is done for this cycle.
Naz, how'd it work out? I presume your short did not get filled? But your long limit order did?
Quote from naz9403:
long at 1.2555 and short at 1.2520. Thats all you can really do at this point since i really doubt there is going to be a huge price move b4 the fomc decision. Look out for stop hunting, we all know its going to happen so just prepare.
Its better to miss 50 points in a 100-150 point move than to get whipped around a few times and getting horrible fills as the news comes out.
my gawd, you guys are market WIZARDS!
Quote from downrivertrader:
I just took half off at 2645. Will add some back once I get my barrings if warranted.
+126 Points
I am not convinced we are out of the woods on a move down yet. We should all be very careful. I see a lot of mixed probabilities.
One thing is for sure, we have a breakout coming and we will go one way or another, probably, could be that is....
2750 and 2795 next important wood to chop. Build value below the 2345 area and it may be down to 2150.
Tommorrow, tonight if we move up and get into the stops above 2680 the 1.2707 area is very important. If this holds I will feel better.
DRT
I tell ya...in looking at things. I would not get real comfortable with this long thing yet. I see a distinct possibility that once these stops are tripped above 2680 that we may reverse and head hard south. Be careful everyone.
Good trading.
DRT
I totally agree... we're heading up, no doubt that... then we're plunging like there's no tomorrow.
Quote from downrivertrader:
I tell ya...in looking at things. I would not get real comfortable with this long thing yet. I see a distinct possibility that once these stops are tripped above 2680 that we may reverse and head hard south. Be careful everyone.
Good trading.
DRT
engaging
Engaged my first short - 1.2698.
TP... not yet determined.
Anyone takin' the other side?
DrawDown
1.2703
Re: engaging
Quote from DrawDown:
Engaged my first short - 1.2698.
TP... not yet determined.
DrawDown
1.2703
__________________
www.TheForexGrail.com
Re: Re: engaging
*busts up laughing*
Quote from Kastro_316:
Short at 1.2701
-Kastro
)Hey
Ohh it sure is
Hey, did you get my PM?
__________________
www.TheForexGrail.com
The dollar index slammed into a very key level for me yesterday. It is working this 85.55 level and if it moves up out of here that would be very positive. All the pairs I track are setting up to be dollar positive.
One thing I have learned in trading Forex that I read every day to remind me......
"Trend changes in the Forex market tend to be processes and not events"
This is much different than the old days of trading the Russell 2000.
Spot is working this 2707 level, if it does not hold then my bias is down. Its an emotional market so be careful with short term trades
I will likely watch things develop into the weekend, but I think we will have some nice setups forming for next week. Now that the Fed is out of the way, the bulls and bears can battle it out.
Good luck Kastro and send me some cigars. Opus or Cohiba is fine.
DRT
I've been long since yesterday's Fed release. I think going short while the market is still coming to terms with the dovish Fed - is madness.
__________________
There is no spoon.
233-pts vertical since the FOMC.
... Not a bad showing.
Seems we've sputtered pre-1.2800.
Then, again, we sputtered upon hitting 1.2700 - just to continue to within 10-pts of 1.2800.
My overall sentiment is: The world.. selling USD?? In this world/market environment? How stupid is that?
Hence, all my indicators still point to shorting, though high risk, as the most profitable, albeit longer term, direction. The interest rate speculators are the suckers, again.
Good luck USD-bulls!
The DrawDown
Not that I account anything you post as worth reading, but, you now say you're long EUR/USD.... and that going short is... "madness."
Quote from Ivanovich:
I've been long since yesterday's Fed release. I think going short while the market is still coming to terms with the dovish Fed - is madness.
Now you say you're long.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Went long EUR/USD right before Fed release. Closed out on the rejection for a very nice profit.
Skalpz,
The last person to be mouthing off about anyone not posting real facts is you.
Everyone in this thread knows that I am a Forex trader. And everyone in this thread knows that you...are something of a joke. Feel free to read the USD/CAD, AUD/USD or NZD/USD threads for my positions. Just because I didn't happen to log in for your sake before my EUR positions were opened, does not mean they weren't opened.
I closed my original positions after the Fed, and reopened them again afterwards. And closed again for profit, and reopened and closed. Now, at 1.2780, I'm flat. I will reopen on a significant breach of 1.2780, but will not go short.
Your belief in a 1.23 number is quite amusing, however. Actually, everything about you is amusing.
__________________
There is no spoon.
EUR-USD ---> Up, Up, Up
It might retrace during the coming sessions. But the trend is UP. Please do not forget that fact and the rule that states that profitable traders follow the trends ...............
OK, raise it to the 1.2400s.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Your belief in a 1.23 number is quite amusing, however. Actually, everything about you is amusing.
Oh, that's right, you're not even trading EUR/USD!
Quote from Ivanovich:
Now, at 1.2780, I'm flat.
Here you go, ya tool. Feel free to check the times and pairs yourself. I could post the other account (which was also long EUR) but why waste more energy on someone as stupid as you?
__________________
There is no spoon.
Just realized not all the transactions were listed (the scroll bar wasn't all the way up). Here is the remainder.
__________________
There is no spoon.
Re: EUR-USD ---> Up, Up, Up
Quote from Woodmarket:
It might retrace during the coming sessions. But the trend is UP. Please do not forget that fact and the rule that states that profitable traders follow the trends ...............
__________________
There is no spoon.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Just realized not all the transactions were listed (the scroll bar wasn't all the way up). Here is the remainder.
Quote from DrawDown:
Geesh, Ivansky, this groupie of yours always comes to your defence!
How pathetic.
It's like Batman and his wonderboy, Robin!
DD
I been called a lot of things before, but never a "tool"!
Quote from Ivanovich:
Here you go, ya tool.
I went fishing today and left the other half of my postion open with a stop. I was really surprised to come back and see things up. I just knew the market would back off.
It was a good day. Caught some fish and caught a lot more Euros. Its a feeding frenzy. I will need to take a look at things this weekend.
DRT
One hell of a hectic week that one. My intial bias during the start of the week was one with a dollar weakening early on before a strengthening during the latter parts after the FOMC forecasts.
The first part of the week was correct as was the downturn midweek.But I was caught by the FOMC release. Once the equity market starting rallying it was blatantly obvious what the market perception was. Had to lick my wounds and did make some cash on the upsurge today with a reversal on my positions. Decent week, could have been much more profitable.
Hopefully your fishing was good DRT.
Ivan> Looks like you positioned yourself well during the week with the long bias.
Quote from sccz97:
Please do not feel the need to prove yourself to coinz/skalpz/dd/faketrader. It's quite evident from reading just a handful of both your posts that whilst you actually have an idea what you're talking about, he comes across as a clueless teenager intent on putting as many smileys as poss in his posts. I hope this doesn't stop skalpz from posting because honestly, I find his delusions of exceptional trading ability and keen market awareness hilarious.
Hey
Easy, easy you too!
Just remember, fighting on the internet is like running in the special olympics. If you win, you are still a retard.
no disrespect to the special olympians, they run faster than I do
Have a good weekend guys!
-Kastro
__________________
www.TheForexGrail.com
Yeah, especially when he and his groupies COMPLAIN about posts that wipe his worthless trading principles out so that MY posts get removed, while their worthless spam and flames remain.
Quote from wwx:
Agreed!
Ivanovich is one of the shrewdest members on the ET forum and commends the respect of many good traders here.
Quote from sccz97:
Please do not feel the need to prove yourself to coinz/skalpz/dd/faketrader. It's quite evident from reading just a handful of both your posts that whilst you actually have an idea what you're talking about, he comes across as a clueless teenager intent on putting as many smileys as poss in his posts. I hope this doenst sotp skalpz from posting because honestly, I find his delusions of exceptional trading ability and keen market awareness hilarious.
__________________
There is no spoon.
Quote from DrawDown:
btw.. "shrewdest," and "members on the ET forum," is a relative misnomer.
*busts up laughing*
DD
__________________
There is no spoon.
Oh, I "commented," alright.
Quote from Ivanovich:
I notice you didn't comment on the post where you were proven to have your head up your arse, re: my EUR positioning.
).
Quote from DrawDown:
Oh, I "commented," alright.
But the post was removed by ET Moderation.
Might you have had anything to do with that?
Quote from DrawDown:
Bugging a moderator to death is the surest way to get a post removed.
I, on the other hand, have NEVER complained about a fellow ET member, unlike you.
__________________
There is no spoon.
Re: typo
Quote from DrawDown:
What was I on??
__________________
There is no spoon.
Let me help ghet you guys back on the topic here.
Heres a chart on my current wave count. Wave 3 could push higher in a choppy fashion, then we should see a wave 4 correction. This wave 4 could go as low as the wave 1 top.
Wave 4 will unfold in 3 waves,a,b,c. Once 3 waves down are established and the top of wave 1 is in tact. The I'll look for a long position with a s/l below the low of wave 2.
A deep retrace will probly give way to a truncated wave 5 that doesn't extend past wave 3 top. But wave 5 has to be 5 waves up. Once 5 waves up are established then a larger a,b,c correction should give rise to more bearish oppertunities.
Dave
__________________
It is failer, only when accepted as the final result.
Otherwise it is mearly a speedbump on the road to success.
Incorrect count.
Quote from WaveMaster:
Incorrect count.
__________________
It is failer, only when accepted as the final result.
Otherwise it is mearly a speedbump on the road to success.
With all due respect, that Elliot Wave stuff never did seem to work much. However, if it's your cup of tea, by all means, drink up.
__________________
There is no spoon.
Quote from Ivanovich:
With all due respect, that Elliot Wave stuff never did seem to work much. However, if it's your cup of tea, by all means, drink up.
__________________
It is failer, only when accepted as the final result.
Otherwise it is mearly a speedbump on the road to success.
Quote from xxDavidxsxx:
that was much better than a simple "incorrect count" statement.
e-wave is very hard to discern. My count may or may not follow a profetional providers count. I use just the basics.
5/3/5 or 3/5/3. Simply put...3 waves in one direction immediatly followed by 5 in the other is the signal. In the direction of the 5.
On the above posted chart the lines I drew starts with a RED 3 down followed by a BLUE 5 up. That is where it was last sunday I belive. I gave that as a bull signal for the weekly forcast I do. after you see the 3/5 then wach for another 3 once the 3/5/3 was complete and the last 3 doesn't extend past the start of the first 3 then another 5 is sure to follow. Wich will be a wave 3 as we saw here. Or a wave C as the greater trend here could be a wave of the next higher degree. But its too early for all that now.
the market will through x,y,z....d,e,f...and all kinds of confusing waves at you so I don't even try to get all that.
Just identify impulse waves and the wave of the next lower degree for entry.
If the wave 4 decline unfolds in 5 waves it blows holes in my analisys.
Dave
here is last weeks chart. wave c extended little deeper than my line but the lines are a rough estamate.
__________________
It is failer, only when accepted as the final result.
Otherwise it is mearly a speedbump on the road to success.
Quote from WaveMaster:
Incorrect count.
__________________
It is failer, only when accepted as the final result.
Otherwise it is mearly a speedbump on the road to success.
I just closed my remaining long position at 2795 for a 276 point profit on this half.
I am keeping an eye on this 2795 area. I want to get short here, but am going to wait to see how it is resolved. This is a very key area. If we move above and build value, then it may be onto
2795
3065
If we move down a build value below 2660 then I suspect we are headed down.
Good luck everyone.
DRT
I just took half off at 2645. Will add some back once I get my barrings if warranted.
+126 Points
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from downrivertrader:
Okay the hell with the dollar bull thing.
I covered my trade at 2521 for a 117 point profit. I am now long (a bunch) at .12519.
Makes my head spin. Fed should move the needle tommorrow.
Too much priced in the down move in my opinion.
DRT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A chart
What a fancy looking chart .What are these circles? I just use trend lines.
__________________
I think I can I think I can I think I can...
I know things are thin, but I have decided to get short at 2795. The market has not run away upward from this level so far. This is a very high risk trade. 2795 is an extremely key value area. If it continues to hold and we build value upward then the move out of here will be very strong in my opinion.
If I am wrong, I will get out quickly and take my lumps. If the market does move down, I am looking for
2690 as the first stop.
If we move below 2660 then it may be a downward path to 2570/2480.
Good luck this week.
DRT
DRT,
Good luck with your trade.
Is this trade based on TA only, overbought conditions, COT?
Just curious why you went short and why now.
Appreciate your input.
Just technical analysis. I am not good with anything else. Hunches sometimes. I study price distribution mostly. Certainly not an exact science.
Maybe you guys can shed some light on this......
If the ECB does not increase this week, will the EUR likely gain in value??
DRT
Just to give you guys something to make fun of instead of Ivan and Coinzy.......
I have a methodology that is something like a River. Water is always seeking equilibrium. 2795 is the equilibrium of the river. When price is near this area, I take above average risk to try and figure out which way the tide is going to flow. I call it River Theory and of course I am called DownRiver Trader since water flows downriver much easier
Quote from downrivertrader:
I know things are thin, but I have decided to get short at 2795.
Mr. River,
you might get a little motor for that canoe.
Wifey
Whoa!! Can you gin up some charts with your analysis or something.
DRT
Quote from WaveMaster:
I'm looking for a 500 + pip move down from this area.
My secretive nature prevents me from doing so.
Quote from downrivertrader:
Just technical analysis. I am not good with anything else. Hunches sometimes. I study price distribution mostly. Certainly not an exact science.
Maybe you guys can shed some light on this......
If the ECB does not increase this week, will the EUR likely gain in value??
DRT
__________________
There is no spoon.
Quote from downrivertrader:
Whoa!! Can you gin up some charts with your analysis or something.
DRT
__________________
It is failer, only when accepted as the final result.
Otherwise it is mearly a speedbump on the road to success.
Quote from WaveMaster:
My secretive nature prevents me from doing so.
__________________
It is failer, only when accepted as the final result.
Otherwise it is mearly a speedbump on the road to success.
Yup.
Quote from WaveMaster:
Yup.
__________________
It is failer, only when accepted as the final result.
Otherwise it is mearly a speedbump on the road to success.
I'm just in shock.
Quote from downrivertrader:
I just closed my remaining long position at 2795 for a 276 point profit on this half.
I am keeping an eye on this 2795 area. I want to get short here, but am going to wait to see how it is resolved. This is a very key area. If we move above and build value, then it may be onto
2795
3065
If we move down a build value below 2660 then I suspect we are headed down.
Good luck everyone.
DRT
I just took half off at 2645. Will add some back once I get my barrings if warranted.
+126 Points
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from downrivertrader:
Okay the hell with the dollar bull thing.
I covered my trade at 2521 for a 117 point profit. I am now long (a bunch) at .12519.
Makes my head spin. Fed should move the needle tommorrow.
Too much priced in the down move in my opinion.
DRT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Whoa! So, I'm not the only one full of **** around here.
Quote from WaveMaster:
I'm looking for a 500 + pip move down from this area.
Looks like we might get a run up before we get a run down. I am tempted to take a little profit and watch but I will stay for now. Afraid we will run to 1.90's
DRT
Just a reminder guys.
This web site is Elite Trader not Entertainment Tonight. This forum is FX Trading and this thread is titled EUR/USD.
Meaning most anything not related to FX trading belongs in another forum. Most anything not related to the EUR/USD pair does not belongs in this thread.
Quote from downrivertrader:
Afraid we will run to 1.90's
DRT
__________________
There is no spoon.
Just joking.
Quote from Ivanovich:
What?
I am taking my profit at 2750 for a 45 point profit.
If we get through this area, I will get short again on a pullback.
DRT
Quote from downrivertrader:
I know things are thin, but I have decided to get short at 2795. The market has not run away upward from this level so far. This is a very high risk trade. 2795 is an extremely key value area. If it continues to hold and we build value upward then the move out of here will be very strong in my opinion.
If I am wrong, I will get out quickly and take my lumps. If the market does move down, I am looking for
2690 as the first stop.
If we move below 2660 then it may be a downward path to 2570/2480.
Good luck this week.
DRT
Long at 2738
Hi DRT,
I've been following your calls for some time and they interest me a lot. You said that you are analyzing weekly and monthly price distribution. Have you tried your method on daily bars and if you have, is the result as good? Thanks.
Quote from Ivanovich:
If the ECB does nothing, expect a rather large EUR selloff.
But I would be stunned if they do nothing.
I trade intra day based on price distribution also. In fact, the daily chart is probably my primary tool.
DRT
Quote from hoangmphung:
Hi DRT,
I've been following your calls for some time and they interest me a lot. You said that you are analyzing weekly and monthly price distribution. Have you tried your method on daily bars and if you have, is the result as good? Thanks.
I am exiting this for a 17 point loss. I got a good intraday signal in the downdraft today. It is a trade I will always take. Just didn't work out and I will not be watching the market tonight. Still looks like a move up to me.
I may look to get long out of the 2690 area.
Good luck everyone.
DRT
Quote from downrivertrader:
Long at 2738
Quote from volatilitypimp:
Do you have any empirical evidence of this?
Does this also mean to say that if ECB raises rates, probability favors a EUR rally?
EDIT: After looking at the past 3 rate increases on Dec. 6, Mar. 8, Jun.15 the daily range on those days were miniscule. It seems the ECB meeting's recently have been non-events. Anyone else care to chime in here?
__________________
There is no spoon.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Do I have evidence of what? You mean do I have Trichet's phone number or something?
I've watched and become comfortable with calling various CB plays for a while now, and am pretty accurate if I do say so myself. Even when the consensus goes against me. This does not, however, mean I cannot be wrong, obviously.
What I think (key word there) will happen this time is that if the ECB pauses (unlikely), then you will see a major sell off in the EUR. Why? Because the market is expecting a hike from all the tough hawkish talk going on from the ECB members. A pause will seriously shock people (including me).
I believe we'll see a hike, and then it will depend on the press conference and how hawkish the commentary arising from that conference ends up being. If more hikes or more aggressive hikes are in the pipeline, expect a EUR rally - a significant one. If the ECB hikes and the talk is neutral or dovish, expect a dollar rally. I think we'll see a hike and neutral commentary once again. Perhaps even marginally dovish.
The last two times the market thought the ECB was going to go far more aggressive. It did not, and therefore there was disappointment. I said that back then, in this very thread, before it happened. Feel free to search a few pages back.
No no...it's I who apologize if I appeared defensive. I just didn't know what you meant by "evidence".
Lots of times, CB meetings are a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" type of deal.
__________________
There is no spoon.
See, case and point of me being wrong.
They left rates on hold and stayed with "tough talk". The tough talk sent up the Euro until Trichet would not state that there were more hikes in the pipeline.
I'm rather surprised there's not more of a down move, but it might just come tomorrow, or this afternoon.
__________________
There is no spoon.
I'm very surprised about euro bullishness when the fact is that ECB is not bullish. They've constantly and again shown that they're only talking tough. There's no reason why that hot air should sink into the markets as it has. Most probably they will only rise total of 0.5% this year and if they just can justify it will stick with a single 0.25% increase.
They don't want euro to rise over 1.30 under any circumstances but there seem to be some players out there who are hell bent on taking the eurusd up.
Of late news releases, any eurusd downmove seems to come only after the dollar bear has gone home. That's after Europe market hours.
There was a candid statement about a "Zurich based buying program" buying eurusd up 100 pips on friday close probably on Jan 13th when the trend was about to turn back down due to news and sentiment. And from then on, up we went. It'd be very difficult to oppose someone being able to toss the market at will like that.
Never ceases to amaze me. There is definitely something more to it always. Nobody even mentions the wonderfully horrible German data this morning. Just keeps ignoring it always. You can't trade it short term with any logic. Just trade what you see.
I see a return to lower levels in the big picture, but really doesn't matter.
DRT
I took a small short postion at 2767
Target is 2695
Stop very tight.
DRT
Agree shorting at 1.2775 stop 1.2785------ target 1.2720
Well, me thinketh the world is frozen over about this NK deal.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/...tent_634722.htm
The nations are split down the middle, with Russia, NK and China taking one side (of course, you can stack in Iran, Syria and the Gaza Strip ;-)) and the rest of the world taking the other.
Oil's going up.
EUR/USD is jammed.
Until something crazy(ier) happens ... welcome to the Flat Zone.
Good trading, go fishing, drink beer,
DD
1.2777
crack in the world
I've got a hunch the NFP number is going to be big as rumored. I will call it idiot logic. Here's my reasoning....simple.....when it comes to reporting on what is going on with payrolls in this country I would be more inclined to trust ADP to give me insight. They have been cutting checks for a long time in this country and while I was in corporate america their logo was always on my check. Where do the other numbers come from anyway? Think about that one.
ADP report is a sign of things to come for us. May not seem like a big deal now, but just wait.
DRT
from forexnews.com
The dollar reaction will be determined by a combination of the payrolls figure and the average hourly earnings. A durable dollar rally could only be necessitated by a payrolls figure of at least 250-260K, especially if the average hourly earnings rise by at least 0.3%. A payrolls figure between 200K and 240K could be expected to have a muted dollar reaction, and could even end up negative in the event of earnings growing by less than 0.3%. Any figure below 190K in payrolls is likely to be dollar negative because FX traders are already positioning for an assured ECB rate hike in August and an increasingly likely BoJ move next week, while a Fed rate hike would not be assured after today's jobs report.
hi -- joined this thread late. who are the euro scalpers here?
*looks around nervously*
Quote from aPismoClam:
hi -- joined this thread late. who are the euro scalpers here?
Forget I said this.
I am not budging staying short. We are heading down. Maybe not today. But down.
Quote from downrivertrader:
I've got a hunch the NFP number is going to be big as rumored. I will call it idiot logic. Here's my reasoning....simple.....when it comes to reporting on what is going on with payrolls in this country I would be more inclined to trust ADP to give me insight. They have been cutting checks for a long time in this country and while I was in corporate america their logo was always on my check. Where do the other numbers come from anyway? Think about that one.
ADP report is a sign of things to come for us. May not seem like a big deal now, but just wait.
DRT
euro traders:
are any of you watching spot? I mean, the real spot market, not the IB or other bucket shop spot.
PM me if you'd rather.
Thx.
hey downriver,
how long do you usually hold on to your positions? Why do you think that Euro is going to decline against the dollar? I'm just curious since I'm playing this opposite side here but using futures. Went long on approx spot price of 1.2825
Won't look to hold if it can't breach 1.29 in a week or so.
tough crowd, tough crowd!!
I'm trying to get a handle on what people think their edge is in the currencies. Please don't tell me "charts."
Not selling, just trading.
Came within 2-pips of catching my short limit order before it spiked UP 100-pts! Order closed unfilled.
Quote from DrawDown:
*looks around nervously*
Scalpers...? Whuzzat?
At a venture, for the NFPs, opened a limit order short for 1.2770 pointing down w/ 100-pt TP.
Always wanted to trade one of these NFP spikes.
We got a jittery market so it may just happen.
DD
1.2777
Quote from Jackjones:
from forexnews.com
The dollar reaction will be determined by a combination of the payrolls figure and the average hourly earnings. A durable dollar rally could only be necessitated by a payrolls figure of at least 250-260K, especially if the average hourly earnings rise by at least 0.3%. A payrolls figure between 200K and 240K could be expected to have a muted dollar reaction, and could even end up negative in the event of earnings growing by less than 0.3%. Any figure below 190K in payrolls is likely to be dollar negative because FX traders are already positioning for an assured ECB rate hike in August and an increasingly likely BoJ move next week, while a Fed rate hike would not be assured after today's jobs report.
__________________
There is no spoon.
You may be sorry you asked..
Truth is I have no idea what is going to happen. I am not very articulate when it comes to expressing my views on this. I am really just a trader not a marketician or economist. Usually, I make the most money when I just try to use some common sense thoughts on why people buy and sell.
I am glad to hear from a EURO FX trader. This is the bread and butter of my bank account growth. I trade it fairly short term though. I trade the spot forex market also but with a different methodology. I started trading it so I could gain membership in these forums. This is the EURUSD thread so I will not say anything else about futures.
Now back to your question....
how long do you usually hold on to your positions?
Sometimes intraday, sometimes intraweek. I do what the maket tells me. I do not use some silly rule that says "stick to your rules". Recently I got short leading up to the FOMC decision. The market told me to scrap my view and get long. So I did. I got lucky and the pair soared. I am now short again and probably getting ready to get burned so I am watching closely. Not that it will do any good. So the answer to your question is that I trade what I see in the market for this pair. It is hard to do anything else unless you have a big account like Gates or Soros.
Why do you think that Euro is going to decline against the dollar? I'm just curious since I'm playing this opposite side here but using futures. Went long on approx spot price of 1.2825
I mentioned previously that I trade a technical methodology that relies on price distribution (long, intermediate and short term) as part of my decision process. I do not trade entirely based on this, it is more of a confirmation or a guide to confirm key value areas to watch.
Long Term
From a Long Term prospective (looking back to 1985), the Euro is in the upper distribution and shows a path to maybe as high as 1.55. The balance point of the curve is somewhere near 1.14. There is a lot of unfinished value development below this 1.14 level. It will move down and satisfy this lower distribution, the question is will I be living to see it? I have to get my kids through school and I want a new boat that cost a lot of USD's.
Short Term
Price distribution is screaming at me that a move further up the top of the curve is at hand. If you have ever dabbled in this type of study you will know that TPO balance points change as time progresses. The short term targets are in the low/mid 1.30 area.
From my own short term (next week) methodology, I see a move down to 1.2750. This will be a test of the upper distribution move. We will likely bounce hard out of this area and it may in fact be a rocket launch upward. If we move below this area next week, it is my opinion that we may head lower into the 1.25's for now. The challenge will be if we head up strongly the first of next week. Do I get out? Anyway, that is my problem and not yours.
NOW THE HARD PART......(and dangerous part I might add)....
Traders Intuition, my instincts, gut...whatever you want to call it.
I can not explain this fundamentally. It is easy to explain it technically but there are a million different views on the technicals on this pair. At any given moment, I will agree with any of them. I know this will sound stupid but I do not care...Something is just not right. WHy does this pair have such favor? Just look at the way it is being traded right now. It is ridulous in my opinion. The real reason that there is such huge volatility is that nobody really knows what to do. What amazes me more than anything is how this pair reflects the worlds hatred of the U.S. Everyone ignores bad data out of Europe. Rarely will the Euro move down more than a blip.
I am going to give this a try but I am not good with fundamentals
Quote from polpolik:
hey downriver,
how long do you usually hold on to your positions? Why do you think that Euro is going to decline against the dollar? I'm just curious since I'm playing this opposite side here but using futures. Went long on approx spot price of 1.2825
Won't look to hold if it can't breach 1.29 in a week or so.
Quote from downrivertrader:
Here's my reasoning....simple.....when it comes to reporting on what is going on with payrolls in this country I would be more inclined to trust ADP to give me insight. They have been cutting checks for a long time in this country and while I was in corporate america their logo was always on my check. Where do the other numbers come from anyway? Think about that one.
Despite its miss on the June payroll reading, the ADP report has its defenders.
When asked about June's big miss, Macroeconomic Advisers' Joel Prakken said, "It's was just one of those months." The probability of what happened in June was slight, "but it did happen," he said.
...
Given the propensity for large revisions to the government's payroll figures in later months, Macroeconomic Advisers' Prakken said the ADP June reading could be proven accurate.
"Based on our calculations, the large miss today suggests an upward revision next month," Prakken said.
Quote from downrivertrader:
You may be sorry you asked..
Truth is I have no idea what is going to happen. I am not very articulate when it comes to expressing my views on this. I am really just a trader not a marketician or economist. Usually, I make the most money when I just try to use some common sense thoughts on why people buy and sell.
I am glad to hear from a EURO FX trader. This is the bread and butter of my bank account growth. I trade it fairly short term though. I trade the spot forex market also but with a different methodology. I started trading it so I could gain membership in these forums.
Now back to your question....
how long do you usually hold on to your positions?
Sometimes intraday, sometimes intraweek. I do what the maket tells me. I do not use some silly rule that says "stick to your rules". Recently I got short leading up to the FOMC decision. The market told me to scrap my view and get long. So I did. I got lucky and the pair soared. I am now short again and probably getting ready to get burned so I am watching closely. Not that it will do any good. So the answer to your question is that I trade what I see in the market for this pair. It is hard to do anything else unless you have a big account like Gates or Soros.
Why do you think that Euro is going to decline against the dollar? I'm just curious since I'm playing this opposite side here but using futures. Went long on approx spot price of 1.2825
I mentioned previously that I trade a technical methodology that relies on price distribution (long, intermediate and short term) as part of my decision process. I do not trade entirely based on this, it is more of a confirmation or a guide to confirm key value areas to watch.
Long Term
From a Long Term prospective (looking back to 1985), the Euro is in the upper distribution and shows a path to maybe as high as 1.55. The balance point of the curve is somewhere near 1.14. There is a lot of unfinished value development below this 1.14 level. It will move down and satisfy this lower distribution, the question is will I be living to see it? I have to get my kids through school and I want a new boat that cost a lot of USD's.
Short Term
Price distribution is screaming at me that a move further up the top of the curve is at hand. If you have ever dabbled in this type of study you will know that TPO balance points change as time progresses. The short term targets are in the low/mid 1.30 area.
From my own short term (next week) methodology, I see a move down to 1.2750. This will be a test of the upper distribution move. We will likely bounce hard out of this area and it may in fact be a rocket launch upward. If we move below this area next week, it is my opinion that we may head lower into the 1.25's for now. The challenge will be if we head up strongly the first of next week. Do I get out? Anyway, that is my problem and not yours.
NOW THE HARD PART......(and dangerous part I might add)....
Traders Intuition, my instincts, gut...whatever you want to call it.
I can not explain this fundamentally. It is easy to explain it technically but there are a million different views on the technicals on this pair. At any given moment, I will agree with any of them. I know this will sound stupid but I do not care...Something is just not right. WHy does this pair have such favor? Just look at the way it is being traded right now. It is ridulous in my opinion. The real reason that there is such huge volatility is that nobody really knows what to do. What amazes me more than anything is how this pair reflects the worlds hatred of the U.S. Everyone ignores bad data out of Europe. Rarely will the Euro move down more than a blip.
I am going to give this a try but I am not good with fundamentals
- The US has superior GDP growth
- The US unemployment rate is half of the Euro area
- Wages are superior in the US
- Retail sales are really superior in the US
- US Bond yields are superior in the US
- and just for good measure the interest rate differential favors the US even with hikes from ECB. Of course, this does not matter anymore.
- Why are we buying EUROs? I think we just hate the dollar and this is a war built on a house of cards. I think we have a lot of work to do on the dollar, but it is not going to collapse overnight. Do any of you think commodities are going to decline over the next year? Where will the capital flows end up? I do not think they will head to emerging market bonds.
- This jobs report thing is a joke in my opinion. For Gods sake, we need to accept the fact that we have finally developed to the point where we are producing more with technology and less with people. Everyone needs to come to terms with this. It is a paradymn shift that is long overdue. Job creation is a stupid measure in my opinion. Let's evaluate what we do with technology, not how many people it takes to do it. Americans are lazy as hell, but very creative.
- Is there really any meaningful correlation between national debt as a % of GDP and currencies? Take a hard look over history. Take a hard look at Japan.
- Is the US printing dollars too fast? Maybe but one thing is for sure Europe is printing them a heck of a lot faster. I think it is around twice as fast as the US. 8% compared to 4% US.
- We are supposedly falling apart. Are corporate earnings reports reflecting this? I don't know, but cash abounds in many coffers.
- I also think we will begin a large shift in personal savings back to respectable levels. Will this help our current account problem? Is the answer a weaker currency? Who knows.
Lastly and maybe the most important.....
Everyone is doom and gloom the dollar. Front page the WSJ, Time Mag, you name it. A sure sign that we should buy the dollar.
In any case....my gut tells me I do not want to own Euros with the rest of the herd. I learned a long time ago not to ignore my gut regardless of what all the trading jorunals say.
Sorry to ramble on....Good luck next week, month, year, decade.
Until then I guess I will just trade what I see
DRT
Quote from vital-analitix:
PS what happened to the medium term? Medium and long term determine direction, short term determines entry / exit.
vital analitics [/B]
__________________
It is failer, only when accepted as the final result.
Otherwise it is mearly a speedbump on the road to success.
Quote from xxDavidxsxx:
Here is a long term outlook. This is last weeks chart.
There will probly be some confusion this week as the market bulls and bears fight it out. Bulls trying to push price past previous top. And bears selling on rallies.
A wave 3 greater trend decline would be nice.
Dave
http://img132.imageshack.us/my.php?...klywaves8lo.jpg
__________________
I think I can I think I can I think I can...
Quote from jerry11901:
There is something fishy about this run down, it’s just to avis, and too many people think this way.
__________________
It is failer, only when accepted as the final result.
Otherwise it is mearly a speedbump on the road to success.
I love you Elliot Wave cultists!
Quote from vital-analitix:
PS what happened to the medium term? Medium and long term determine direction, short term determines entry / exit.
vital analitics
Sometimes I wonder why I trade this pair at all. It is very hard on my nerves. Just when you think you may be moving down, the CB,s step in. I am watching someone slam the bid on the CME.
Is it one of you guys. Please let us take out 1.27 so I can go on vacation.
DRT
Hi DRT,
May I suggest you follow Gold (ZG is ok too) when you're trading that pair - the Euro tends to correlate well with Gold. Good luck.
Cariocas
Quote from downrivertrader:
Sometimes I wonder why I trade this pair at all. It is very hard on my nerves. Just when you think you may be moving down, the CB,s step in. I am watching someone slam the bid on the CME.
Is it one of you guys. Please let us take out 1.27 so I can go on vacation.
DRT
Thanks. Last time I did that I got a concussion from my head hitting the monitors and passed out.
DRT
Quote from Cariocas:
Hi DRT,
May I suggest you follow Gold (ZG is ok too) when you're trading that pair - the Euro tends to correlate well with Gold. Good luck.
Cariocas
I got hosed by the euro this morning. Was long at (future prices) 1.2797, it dropped to 1.2780 so i reversed position and went short. Sure enough, it went against me.
Ugh.... im tired and I hate this pair. I'm out of it now, back to my good ol' Yen for now.
What I was suggesting is to look at Gold for any signs of strength or weakness. For example, at the moment there's no short setup on the Euro since Gold is trending up. At least, it eliminates guessing about direction.
Cariocas
trending-upwards
No, we're in a dollar positive environment.
Quote from dentist007:
trending-upwards
What's dollar positive in this environment? Not agreeing or disagreeing, just curious what you think is dollar positive. The technical trend, which is what Dentist was referring to, is up. He's right.
__________________
There is no spoon.
I see dollar bullishness everywhere in my charts though I can not explain it. It is something we are all missing. Always is. I think we will all look back and wonder what happened in a few months. Of course, I could be wrong. I have posistioned myself for it in my long term account.
Might buy some calls on the Dollar Index if I can figure it out also.
Long USDCAD
Long USDJPY
Short AUDUSD
Short Euro FX
DRT
I'm all for gut feelings, but when you say "I see dollar bullishness everywhere in my charts, but I just can't explain it" that sounds rather hokey. Explain what you "see". Do you see a strong resistance level in the dollar index that you don't believe will be broken? Do you see an Elliott Wave or something? Do you see "Go Long USD" in your Alphabits cereal?
Explain, man.
__________________
There is no spoon.
More lit the alphabits. You still eat those?
I realize it is a hokey thing to say and sometimes I wish I would just keep my mouth shut (fingers shut) about it. I really don't want all the arguments from everyone. Like many of you, I stare at these damn markets constantly. I have stated on a zillion occassions that I really do not know much about fundamentals. If you look back a few posts you will see what I study. Long Term price distribution. Bell Curves and the like. In the big picture the bottom of the long term bell curve needs to be balanced. I realize we are talking months and years here so to discuss it is somewhat pointless.
Most people will see the dollar index as in a downtrend. I see it as in an uptrend which began in earnest on September 11, 1992. I am not going to go into it. Too much laughter from everyone but I have my reasons.
What I really notice is that all my long term studies indcate a change is at hand. These are studies dating back for years and many would argue they have no relevance now but I ignore that. These changes will take a long time to develop, but I think they are dollar bullish. After all Rome was not built in a day, and neither will China, India or the rest of the "hot new" emerging world.
Sorry that's all I got. I will likely get long the Euro a few times on a short term basis, but the dollar is going to command the next several years. Maybe CNBC or Bloomberg will have me on as a contrarian or something.
If I am proven wrong, then I will re-evaluate. Until then I am just hokey old DRT.
Heh...Alphabits haven't been on a shelf in a supermarket where I've lived in the last decade, so no, I don't. I wish I could find them, though (that and a lot more, but such is life as an expat).
I'm not trying to argue with you, DRT. My intent is to understand your thoughts. Like some others on this board, I find your posts insightful and thoughtful. I don't always agree with you, but you make me think about whether I've missed something in my own analysis, and that's the sole reason I come to ET - to find viewpoints either in-line with mine to confirm, or out of alignment to offer a contrasting view. Unfortunately, many posters just say "dollar going up" or "in my opinion, it's a dollar positive environment" without saying why. This doesn't help me compare or contrast, and it doesn't help posters who might be very new to the game understand.
As for trends, trends are like statistics. You can shape them whatever way you want in order for them to tell the story you need them to. An uptrend since 1992 is just as valid as a downtrend since, say 2001. Time period is everything.
But to me, and this is just an observation so take it how you want, you seem to be an intraday trader (with many of your EUR trades). If that is the case, why are you looking for trends and directional impulses in a timeframe way, way outside what you trade?
If I was making a EUR/USD trade for the next year, then perhaps I'd look at these long term charts. But for now,. the trend is clearly up because I trade the period in which the trend exists.
__________________
There is no spoon.
Low of 1.2686 just hit.
Quote from DrawDown:
No, we're in a dollar positive environment.
We'll break 1.2700 by week's end.
Euro has nothing to offer the world at this time.
dd
1.2760
Quote from DrawDown:
Low of 1.2686 just hit.
dRaWdOwN
1.2708
__________________
There is no spoon.
Ivan,
Good points. Don't make me bare all but here is what I do.....
DownRiver Trading short term profits go into....my two long term funds.
The (my last name) Natural Resource Fund
The (my last name) World Currency Fund
I have to have something to grow old with. Very good points you make. My posting here is usually about short term intraday/week and I will try to focus on this.
Now will you guys please sell a few yards of these damn Euros. Looks like a familiar story today with my equity Green/ Yellow/Red
DRT
I'm not in the EUR side at the moment, but I have shorted cable. Maybe that'll help?
Too many Central Banks camped in the 1.26's from what I read. If the Euro cannot surmount them, then what cannot go down, will go up.
__________________
There is no spoon.
Quote from Ivanovich:
I'm not in the EUR side at the moment, but I have shorted cable. Maybe that'll help?
Too many Central Banks camped in the 1.26's from what I read. If the Euro cannot surmount them, then what cannot go down, will go up.
I'll remain out, but will come in for reinforcements if you need me to, DRT!__________________
There is no spoon.
I have never traded Sterling. I do not know why? I do watch it though. Nice trade.
I am still short from 2767 but watching this 2690 area very carefully. If we could settle below here today, it makes a much better case for a move down to the 25 area next.
There was a CB bidding at 2687 level judging from the Bid/Ask on the CME. Big One. Looks like same old story down at this level.
So what the deal with cable, are CB's not as active???? Maybe I should start trading it.
DRT
Quote from Ivanovich:
Just closed the GBP one - what a dive
"Belief" has nothing to do with it, Ivansky.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Yep, with a very healthy rejection off that line, too. But you still have not stated why you believe this is a dollar positive environment.
DRT, The reason I trade sterling is because it is more sheltered from the Euro "fad". It's a better indication of overall USD sentiment, and the pair tends to move 200-250 pips in a day sometimes, whereas EUR gets tired after 100-150. Lastly, you tend to have less CBs changing their reserves into GBP.
__________________
There is no spoon.
Quote from DrawDown:
"Belief" has nothing to do with it, Ivansky.
I'm just not an amateur hack "FX trader."
DD
__________________
There is no spoon.
Quote from DrawDown:
Only a non-trading market spectator could not have seen this move coming.
DD
__________________
There is no spoon.
Riiight... I call a 100-pt fall - the tumble happens the next day... and just because YOU cannot see why it did, you have a bitch fit and call ME names.
Quote from Ivanovich:
So you have no reason outside of the usual ego. That's what I thought. I was trying to be serious with you and see your reasoning, but it's obvious you're not capable of anything but arrogance, Skalpz/Coinz/Exchangez/Whateverz.
And you're right, you're not an amateur hack. You're a professional one. You've been doing this BS crap for a long time now, and should offer classes selling your snake oil to whomever would be dumb enough to listen.
You said it was a dollar positive environment. I asked you why - saying clearly that I did not disagree or agree. I was just curious why.
You never state why, claiming the knowledge is super secret - for people who trade. Maybe you meant it was for people who trade both sides of the same pair? Or perhaps it was for people who trade without stops?
How someone can remain so completely and utterly clueless and lost in idiocy is beyond me.
See, the difference is, I recognize that you trade. You just trade poorly and without logic or reasoning. We never hear about your losses (maybe because you leave them open for 8 months until they hopefully comeback) but the moment you guess the right way (which, between "up" and "down" is 50%) you show up on the board like Mr. Market with the "I am Huge, bring me your finest meats and cheeses" commentary.
I actually feel sorry for you half the time. I dislike you the other half, but the truth of the matter is that I make more in 3 trades than you probably make in a month. And the real kicker is that I trade as a hobby, as I have a corporate job!
__________________
There is no spoon.
Well, Mr. Hobby Trader, maybe this is why you don't see moves coming the way real ForEx traders do.
Quote from Ivanovich:
You said it was a dollar positive environment. I asked you why - saying clearly that I did not disagree or agree. I was just curious why.
You never state why, claiming the knowledge is super secret - for people who trade. Maybe you meant it was for people who trade both sides of the same pair? Or perhaps it was for people who trade without stops?
How someone can remain so completely and utterly clueless and lost in idiocy is beyond me.
See, the difference is, I recognize that you trade. You just trade poorly and without logic or reasoning. We never hear about your losses (maybe because you leave them open for 8 months until they hopefully comeback) but the moment you guess the right way (which, between "up" and "down" is 50%) you show up on the board like Mr. Market with the "I am Huge, bring me your finest meats and cheeses" commentary.
I actually feel sorry for you half the time. I dislike you the other half, but the truth of the matter is that I make more in 3 trades than you probably make in a month. And the real kicker is that I trade as a hobby, as I have a corporate job!
Fits? I'm enjoying this, my psychotic friend. Who doesn't enjoy calling a spade a spade?
Remember the screenshots on this page?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...0&pagenumber=20
(look for the Skalpzisaloser jpgs)
And just curious here, but can you ever reply without a "LMAO" or a "*busts up laughing* in your post?
__________________
There is no spoon.
No.
Quote from Ivanovich:
What move? The move from 1.2707 to 1.2690? Holy cow, that's what...17 pips? Cheers, mate.
Quote from DrawDown:
No, we're in a dollar positive environment.
We'll break 1.2700 by week's end.
Euro has nothing to offer the world at this time.
dd
1.2760
Ah yes, you called it. Tell me, was this due to flipping heads or tails?
Of course, you could always prove me wrong by making some more calls that actually turn out to be right within 24 hours. But we all know how that will turn out.
__________________
There is no spoon.
Now boys.
We need to go fishing so you two can kiss and make up.
Quote from downrivertrader:
Now boys.
We need to go fishing so you two can kiss and make up.
I'll bring my banjo
__________________
There is no spoon.
Quote from downrivertrader:
Now boys.
We need to go fishing so you two can kiss and make up.
Ivan, when was the last time you saw coinzy recommend a position that would result in negative carry and daily interest withdrawals from his account? It's that simple really
You know something? You're right. I cannot believe I never realized that. Cheers, Illiquid.
__________________
There is no spoon.
My calling a 100-pt spike down 24-hours before it happened has nothing to do with coin-flipping.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Ah yes, you called it. Tell me, was this due to flipping heads or tails?
Think of it this way, Ivansky...
Where's there's a lack of sound, there's no need for listeners.
dd
Don't you guys realize Coinzy and Ivan are the same person.
This chart looks like the Euro is ready to launch to the moon. Or is it. Do I cover. Do I stay. Do I cover. Do I stay. A move below here takes us down. How convenient that we are right at 1.27.
DRT
Drawdown, I think most on this forum would bet their left nut that you don't file as a trader and never have.
Bottom of major channel. Set for blastoff or crash landing.
This one may be saying 3 more months of downtime. If you believe in this hocus pocus stuff. Be back later this year, I am off on a Holy Grail Crusade.
Quote from DrawDown:
My calling a 100-pt spike down 24-hours before it happened has nothing to do with coin-flipping.
I clearly explained my reasoning for all to see.
You don't pay attention because you only trade currencies as a "hobby."
Thus making the rest of us, who trade ForEx full-time, out to be a bunch of shmucks, since it is you who disdain full-time money traders, setting yourself above us, in your "corporate job."
Well, Mr. Hobby Trader, my reply was to the Dentist, not to you. It was for real forex traders, not for you and your groupies.
You jumped in like a sap because my call made your head spin, and you begged me to tell you how I did it.
tsk, tsk tsk, Ivansky....
You look but you don't see. You see but you don't perceive.
We're gonna CRACK 1.2600 soon, and move closer to 1.2500. Possibly thru it.
How do I know?
Wouldn't YOU like to know.
It's all about The dRaWdOwN
1.2698
__________________
There is no spoon.
Still short at 1.2698.
Will swipe the whole tumble - every pip - on the crash.
Go, dollar bulls, go!
DrawDown
1.2700000000
BTW...
And, advanced ForEx traders will know this...
This market changes so rapidly that, a call made may be changed at any time.
And, I may not post just because I change calls or directions.
Therefore, since this is the nature of the currency market (rapid changes) - moment to moment updates are nothing I plan to post. I'm not that into message boards.
Just so you guys know.
Take care, and good luck,
DD
1.2710
Quote from DrawDown:
I'm not that into message boards.
:-/
Quote from WaveMaster:
LOL ... Registered June 18 2006 and a post count of 199 already.
I'm long this and short if it fails 1.83
I just went long at 2696. Not because I particularly like euros but because I saw a good entry point and I'm short dollar on both usdcad and gbpusd.
Quote from DrawDown:
BTW...
And, advanced ForEx traders will know this...
This market changes so rapidly that, a call made may be changed at any time.
And, I may not post just because I change calls or directions.
Therefore, since this is the nature of the currency market (rapid changes) - moment to moment updates are nothing I plan to post. I'm not that into message boards.
Just so you guys know.
Take care, and good luck,
DD
1.2710
__________________
There is no spoon.
If you TRADED as much as you POSTED... the rest of us would make more MONEY.
Quote from Ivanovich:
I'll brag about my wins, but when the market moves the other way, I just forgot to tell you that I switched my view.
Says the guy who registered (this time) June 18th and has over 200 posts.
Ivanovich: 1782 (2.84 posts per day)
Drawdown: 206 (8.32 posts per day)
__________________
There is no spoon.
I'm short EUR/USD at 1.2698. Have been for weeks.
Quote from Ivanovich:
Says the guy who registered (this time) June 18th and has over 200 posts.
Ivanovich: 1782 (2.84 posts per day)
Drawdown: 206 (8.32 posts per day)
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