Forums - Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

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Posted by Flashboy on 03-10-05 03:25 PM:

Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Every trend day or period like the last 3 days I always have trouble trading with the trend.

I'm always looking for that turning point so I can hop on for the big score..

I most likely need to work on my plan for trading with the trend.. and force myself to do it until I become more comfortable..

Anyone else have this problem?

Posted by RhinoGG on 03-10-05 03:29 PM:

You can...

You can trade with the trend, what is stopping you? Perhaps you need to re-evaluate your method of determining the trend.

Posted by Pabst on 03-10-05 03:31 PM:

Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from Flashboy:

Every trend day or period like the last 3 days I always have trouble trading with the trend.

I'm always looking for that turning point so I can hop on for the big score..

I most likely need to work on my plan for trading with the trend.. and force myself to do it until I become more comfortable..

Anyone else have this problem?

Totally. Although in this market it's tough to figure out what the trend is. Jeez we could see a day that NQ makes new year lows and YM make year highs on the same day.

__________________
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Posted by easyrider on 03-10-05 03:50 PM:

I really dont think its that difficult. I use three ma's. When they are above one another and sloping down or up I have a trend and start looking for pullbacks. When they are entwined I stand aside. I have not been able to get the hang of countertrend trading but I tried for a long time.

Posted by balda on 03-10-05 03:54 PM:

It is all in your mind. You are trying to pick tops and bottoms.
It can be hazardous to your wealth.

__________________
It doesn't matter where you get in, it where you get out that counts

Posted by Flashboy on 03-10-05 03:55 PM:

Quote from balda:

It is all in your mind. You are trying to pick tops and bottoms.
It can be hazardous to your wealth.

It has been..

I

Posted by brokerboy on 03-10-05 03:59 PM:

I like picking tops and bottoms. I like trading trends too but you need to trade each one very different. Since we are talking trend buying you need to do that small and build up to size on weakness. When you buy on strength it can still go down and still keep its trend.

Posted by Lawrence Chan on 03-10-05 03:59 PM:

Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Go back to study your charts carefully - you probably need to add rules on conditions that you deem "trending" to not picking top and bottom.

One thing you can check out is ADX on a higher time frame.

Lawrence

Quote from Flashboy:

Every trend day or period like the last 3 days I always have trouble trading with the trend.

I'm always looking for that turning point so I can hop on for the big score..

I most likely need to work on my plan for trading with the trend.. and force myself to do it until I become more comfortable..

Anyone else have this problem?

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Posted by nkhoi on 03-10-05 04:20 PM:

if it look like this, perhap it is trending

Posted by pitbulltrader on 03-10-05 04:25 PM:

Why Trade Trend

Lets be generous and say that Markets trend 33% or the time and the rest is back filling...of course this depends on time frame...For me the only way I can ride a trend is by using Multiple contracts...I am mostly a day trader who takes small targets very often and when I am lucky I catch a longer term trend.....Why would I try to catch someting that only happens 33% of the time when I can make money the other 66% of the time and Occassionally catch the longer term moves...Having multiple contracts lets me do that.....I personally like to see trend changes on lower time frames which sometimes turn into longer time frame trend changes...

So if I get a 15 minute trend change from higher highs to lower highs and lower lows then perhaps the 60 minute may do the same thing.

It can be frustrating to watch a market drop like the S&P's but that is not the norm...you need to come to terms with the fact that it happens twice a month or so and I may miss the big move....again time frame is key....a two and 1/2 day drop in the S&P's is huge for me.......it may just be a small blip on the screen to a daily or weekly player

Best of trades to you

Bull

Posted by Flashboy on 03-10-05 05:09 PM:

Just to clarify..

My problem isn't so much recognizing when the market is trending but actually trading with it..

What I mean is: I'm always thinking the market is too oversold to sell now.. we should making a run up soon.. and I'm always looking for that buying opportunity..

Posted by PitchBlack on 03-10-05 05:17 PM:

Quote from Flashboy:

Just to clarify..

My problem isn't so much recognizing when the market is trending but actually trading with it..

What I mean is: I'm always thinking the market is too oversold to sell now.. we should making a run up soon.. and I'm always looking for that buying opportunity..

If you know which way the trend is you should watch to get in at the farest possible in the opposite direction. If the trend is long you look for a moment where the quotes are very low. In a short trend you take a position where te quotes are high.
The logic is that the quotes will go back in the direction of the trend.
But essential is that your definition of the trend is good.

Posted by PitchBlack on 03-10-05 05:20 PM:

Re: Why Trade Trend

[QUOTE]Quote from pitbulltrader:

[B]Lets be generous and say that Markets trend 33% or the time and the rest is back filling...of course this depends on time frame...

All depends of the way how you define a trend. I have more than 75% of the time a clear trend. The basics for a good system is to find the trend.

Posted by FuturesTrader71 on 03-10-05 05:22 PM:

Quote from Flashboy:

It has been..

I

Pull up the tape and watch it for a while. Look at which way the "big money" is going. That's your trend. Nothing simpler than that.

Posted by sonnet on 03-10-05 05:35 PM:

Many, i think most the vast majority, who make this complaint of not being able to get on the trend confuse hindsight with what they could have known or seen at the time.

If u look at the class of events rather than that "market that got away" u find that by and large hopping on the rend will get you wip saw losses on most occasions. 5, 6 7 or more in a row, even 10 in a row, if u try to catch all the trends. good luck trying ot make that back up after commissions and slippage if you are a short term trader!!

U will be so scared of a wip saw loss u will jump out too early on the big move that would have made you whole.

The trend is often like the bells and wistles in the casino that attracts players. It gets people exited but how many quarters on average do u have to lose in order to win? and is that a positive expectation bet? even if it was, u will quit at just the wrong time most likley.

Hindsight, It is horrible!

__________________
Smile.

Posted by 5yrtrader on 03-10-05 06:26 PM:

Quote from Flashboy:

Just to clarify..

My problem isn't so much recognizing when the market is trending but actually trading with it..

What I mean is: I'm always thinking the market is too oversold to sell now.. we should making a run up soon.. and I'm always looking for that buying opportunity..

Well then your problem is you and you have just supplied the answer. If your losing money thinking the market is oversold, then your wrong. The market is never "oversold," so sell lows buy highs and quit bitching.

Posted by nononsense on 03-10-05 06:57 PM:

Quote from Flashboy:

Just to clarify..

My problem isn't so much recognizing when the market is trending but actually trading with it..

What I mean is: I'm always thinking the market is too oversold to sell now.. we should making a run up soon.. and I'm always looking for that buying opportunity..

Get yourself a rabbit's foot and rub vigorously.

Posted by easyrider on 03-10-05 07:03 PM:

Quote from FuturesTrader71:

Pull up the tape and watch it for a while. Look at which way the "big money" is going. That's your trend. Nothing simpler than that.

You make that sound so easy. Ive tried and tried to watch the "tape" (t&s, dom) and you can sit there and watch huge blocks going off at the ask and boom it will drop and vice versa. I can see where watching level 2 may be useful trading stocks but the futures tape is beyond my comprehension. How you guys do it is beyond me. Fortunately I seem to be able to read the flickering last on the candle well enough to get by.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-10-05 07:06 PM:

It's not enough to know that there has been a trend, without knowing to what extent, if at all, the trend will continue.

Posted by FuturesTrader71 on 03-10-05 07:07 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

You make that sound so easy. Ive tried and tried to watch the "tape" (t&s, dom) and you can sit there and watch huge blocks going off at the ask and boom it will drop and vice versa. I can see where watching level 2 may be useful trading stocks but the futures tape is beyond my comprehension. How you guys do it is beyond me. Fortunately I seem to be able to read the flickering last on the candle well enough to get by.

It takes time with ONE product watching day in and day out to see a pattern. This isn't something you can look back on in hindsight and verify. It is a lot like telling a baseball player that you don't know how he can hit a fastball going 100 mph when you can hardly even see it. It is a skill that takes time and a drawdown to learn.

Best of luck.

Posted by easyrider on 03-10-05 07:30 PM:

Quote from FuturesTrader71:

It takes time with ONE product watching day in and day out to see a pattern. This isn't something you can look back on in hindsight and verify. It is a lot like telling a baseball player that you don't know how he can hit a fastball going 100 mph when you can hardly even see it. It is a skill that takes time and a drawdown to learn.

Best of luck.

Ok. You didnt put all that in there when you suggested it to this guy.

Posted by RhinoGG on 03-10-05 07:51 PM:

why just watch?

Why just watch the tape when you can paint it. Don't like the price, print your own.

booo-yaa!

Posted by Ditch on 03-10-05 08:21 PM:

Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from Flashboy:

Every trend day or period like the last 3 days I always have trouble trading with the trend.

I'm always looking for that turning point so I can hop on for the big score..

I most likely need to work on my plan for trading with the trend.. and force myself to do it until I become more comfortable..

Anyone else have this problem?

Your problem is how you define the trend, I assume you trade intraday and the last four days the trend has clearly been down.
One thing I look at to determine the trend is a method that is described in mind over markets. Look at the high and lows of 30-min bars. For every higher high assign a value of +1, for every lower low -1, add them all up for the day. This method recognized friday as a reversal day for the Er2.

Posted by Lefty62151 on 03-10-05 08:40 PM:

Hey:
I like to put of a daily chart and look at the recent week. Its pretty obvious what the recent trend is.

As for trading "with the trend", most folks simply aren't psychologically set up to sit still while the market wiggles around. Its called "patience". The way you get their is to cultivate confidence, and the way you get there is to be competent.

Easy to see the trend intraday. Put up a summary chart with the INDU, COMP, SPX and OEX all right next to each other. Just watch them and you will see intraday trend clearly. Watch how the OEX and SPX change. If you are "patient" and observant you will eventually notice that changes in the OEX and SPX happen first, then are reflected in the INDU. Try just watching for a while.

Heres a method for index trading

To trade with the trend, put up your charts with a 5 period EMA and a 21 period EMA. Start by looking at the slope of the lines.

When the lines both slope up or down you have a general trend. After that you are looking for the 5 period to pullback to the 21. When price touches or dips below the 21 period EMA, you wait for it to resume its trend and pick your entry point. Put on your position, and choose a reasonable stop (say 1.5 points). Take half your profit at 1 point, and another 1/4 at 1.5 pts. Leave the rest to run or close it out if it goes south. Reverse the process for shorts.

OK so this is about as old as the hills, but it works IF you exhibit discipline, taking only trades with the trend and keeping to your stop and profit taking. So....lets see what you can do with it killer!!!

Posted by Grob109 on 03-10-05 08:43 PM:

the cure for you

Your monitoring set up is incomplete so you are not going to go anywhere for a while.

Position trade trends for a few months and as you do, trade movements intraday for your position.

See olde posts of AMTSWA for examples.

At some point you will at last observe that there is a remarkable occurance when trends and moves within trends happen concurrently (Again see AMTSWA's big exits with all cars as a reversal).

Since your setup is so sparse on quality data, at some point you will drop the crap you watch and just add the minimal stuff you need to hit the nail on the head.

You may get something I am saying to you when and if you see the common factor that shows the big reversal exit indication. That is, when a trend ends.

When you start watching two streams of profit running along simultaneously, it may be sufficient to screw up the brain damage you have caused yourself you repeatedly by failing the way you have. You have a major task at hand to disrupt and eliminate years of building parallel paths of erroneous pathways in your brain. Doing simultaneous trading in the style of AMTSWA will go along way towards "chaining out" "succession" type growth in the pastures of your mind.

Posted by Lefty62151 on 03-10-05 08:48 PM:

You know, I have changed my mind. Do what Jack says.

Posted by easyrider on 03-10-05 08:50 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

It's not enough to know that there has been a trend, without knowing to what extent, if at all, the trend will continue.

How do you know if any trend will continue or not? You dont. You want to be in before it tests the last hi/lo so that you have a little cushion as its makes the test. That is the beauty of waiting for the first pullback from a new hi/lo. The trick is finding that sweet spot to enter and that takes a bit of practice.

Posted by easyrider on 03-10-05 08:51 PM:

HE LIVES!!! Welcome back Jack.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-10-05 09:00 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

It's not enough to know that there has been a trend, without knowing to what extent, if at all, the trend will continue.

I find the comings and goings of trends are easy enough to guage. It's simple mechanics.

What I'm currently challenged by though, is properly guaging all the distributions, concerning the learning, of the diversity of tends, which are greatly a skew.

Posted by Lefty62151 on 03-10-05 09:05 PM:

OK then, this is really pretty simple, and after this I am outta here for the day.

Look, for the indexes (ES for example) you can take intraday data and detrend it. Then look at the distribution of moves from one tick out to whatever the largest move is (maybe 2.5 to 3 points). You will see how price trends (when it does), and for how long. You will also develop a feel for what kind of moves happen during the chop. Works like a charm, if you put some time in. I do this every Sunday, and as a result, when I put on a position, I have a pretty good idea of what the odds are of getting a continuation move, or having to get out with a small scalp. Its called "learning your levels...

Lefty

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-10-05 10:21 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

How do you know if any trend will continue or not? You dont. You want to be in before it tests the last hi/lo so that you have a little cushion as its makes the test. That is the beauty of waiting for the first pullback from a new hi/lo. The trick is finding that sweet spot to enter and that takes a bit of practice.

Predicting the direction of price, with or against whatever trend is actually there or not, is most of what the trading game is all about.

The sweet spot is a good thing.

Posted by Huios on 03-10-05 10:38 PM:

Quote from Flashboy:

...I'm always thinking...

That may be most of your problem. It was mine.

Stop thinking you know what the market is going to do. You don't. If you are going to trade the trend, trade the trend. Don't trade what you think the trend is going to do. Trend traders nemesis... thinking the trend is overbought/oversold (another name for top/bottom picking).

If the trend is up, buy every dip, you will only be wrong once... at the top when it fails to make a higher high. If the trend is down, short every ding, you will only be wrong once, when it fail to make a lower low. Don't think, just take the trade.

Learn price action (PA). Everything starts from there. Clear a chart of your favorite timeframe (TF), no indicators, candlesticks, ma's, nothing... but price bars. Color your bars... up bars (close higher than open) one color, down bars (close lower than open) another color.

Identify the PA by marking higher highs (HH), ), higher lows (HL), lower lows (LL), and lower highs (LH) and tests. Mark area's of consolidation (dotted lines). Consolidation is when there are lots of test's, and no HH or LL are made. See attached chart.

After you do this for a few weeks and you will begin to see the patterns. Short the LH after a LL... or buy the HL after a HH. I use range bars, makes it much easier and consistent.

Read the link... the first article was written by Judy MacKeigan (aka Buffy) is all about PA and how to learn it. It was my beginning point to consistency.

http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/...ips38.htm#Price

This sounds much easier than it looks.

Simple is not the same as easy.

Good Trading,

H

Posted by Pabst on 03-10-05 10:47 PM:

Since there's so many trend guru's here, please enlighten me. What's the trend in ES right now.

I mean this is asinine. The overall trend is up. Unless you consider a 2% correction a crash. The weekly trend is down. We are below the 21 and 34 hourly Ma's. Yet today the action was bullish and the market will probably open higher to-morrow.

So WHICH trend is the REAL trend?

__________________
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Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-10-05 11:06 PM:

It,s a bull market you-know...........................

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-10-05 11:07 PM:

what book did that come from????

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by Huios on 03-10-05 11:07 PM:

As far as I am concerned, the "real trend" is the trend of the TF I am trading.

Good Trading,

H

p.s. I read that book once a year.

Posted by Pabst on 03-10-05 11:17 PM:

Quote from Dell-Boy:

It,s a bull market you-know...........................

Ok Turkey chest.

__________________
Free markets for free men!

Posted by nzbryant on 03-10-05 11:32 PM:

WELCOME BACK JACK!

Thought you had passed on.

You are a legend. Thanks for all your posts (particularly the succinct ones)

Posted by easyrider on 03-10-05 11:51 PM:

Quote from Huios:

As far as I am concerned, the "real trend" is the trend of the TF I am trading.

Exactly

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-10-05 11:58 PM:

Quote from Huios:

That may be most of your problem. It was mine.

Stop thinking you know what the market is going to do. You don't. If you are going to trade the trend, trade the trend. Don't trade what you think the trend is going to do. Trend traders nemesis... thinking the trend is overbought/oversold (another name for top/bottom picking).

If the trend is up, buy every dip, you will only be wrong once... at the top when it fails to make a higher high. If the trend is down, short every ding, you will only be wrong once, when it fail to make a lower low. Don't think, just take the trade.

Learn price action (PA). Everything starts from there. Clear a chart of your favorite timeframe (TF), no indicators, candlesticks, ma's, nothing... but price bars. Color your bars... up bars (close higher than open) one color, down bars (close lower than open) another color.

Identify the PA by marking higher highs (HH), ), higher lows (HL), lower lows (LL), and lower highs (LH) and tests. Mark area's of consolidation (dotted lines). Consolidation is when there are lots of test's, and no HH or LL are made. See attached chart.

After you do this for a few weeks and you will begin to see the patterns. Short the LH after a LL... or buy the HL after a HH. I use range bars, makes it much easier and consistent.

Read the link... the first article was written by Judy MacKeigan (aka Buffy) is all about PA and how to learn it. It was my beginning point to consistency.

http://www.ensignsoftware.com/tips/...ips38.htm#Price

This sounds much easier than it looks.

Simple is not the same as easy.

Good Trading,

H

PERFECT , Flashboy go and pull up a 4 day chart with 10 min candles on the ES ,can you see it ??

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by Lefty62151 on 03-11-05 12:11 AM:

Hello:
I think folks make this way too hard. Start by looking at a weekly chart of the SPX. I count 9 "trend changes". It was a choppy market all year long. I don't like trading that price action, so I move down a notich. Look at a daily chart of the SPX. On that chart January was clearly a downtrending month, February in an uptrend and we don't (in my opinion) have enough data to make a decision on March yet. In my view, this is still a choppy market, and again, I don't like to trade that action, so I move down a notch. Looking at 60 min bars, I start to see tradeable "trends". that I can do something with. This tells me I am going to like trading short multi-day swings, and maybe intraday.

Currently I am making money using this framework. I have an ongoing presence in the market with a multi-day position, and I trade around that position intraday. One hedges the other.

Now people can complain about the classroom definition of "trend" if they want to. I get paid to trade price. So I am looking for whatever helps me to identify a tradeable trend long enough to overcome expenses and make a living. So far this year, that is 2-3 day swings, and intraday.

I hope this helps somebody.
Lefty

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-11-05 12:12 AM:

it could break for a nice run-up or it might coil, only the chart will tell............and time ..

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by Pabst on 03-11-05 12:21 AM:

Quote from Lefty62151:

Hello:
I think folks make this way too hard. Start by looking at a weekly chart of the SPX. I count 9 "trend changes". It was a choppy market all year long. I don't like trading that price action, so I move down a notich. Look at a daily chart of the SPX. On that chart January was clearly a downtrending month, February in an uptrend and we don't (in my opinion) have enough data to make a decision on March yet. In my view, this is still a choppy market, and again, I don't like to trade that action, so I move down a notch. Looking at 60 min bars, I start to see tradeable "trends". that I can do something with. This tells me I am going to like trading short multi-day swings, and maybe intraday.

Currently I am making money using this framework. I have an ongoing presence in the market with a multi-day position, and I trade around that position intraday. One hedges the other.

Now people can complain about the classroom definition of "trend" if they want to. I get paid to trade price. So I am looking for whatever helps me to identify a tradeable trend long enough to overcome expenses and make a living. So far this year, that is 2-3 day swings, and intraday.

I hope this helps somebody.
Lefty

I dig your style.

__________________
Free markets for free men!

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-11-05 12:29 AM:

Trend is determined within a timeframe between beginning and ending points.

Regarding the P/L of a trade, these two points are 1) position entry and 2) position exit. The trend between them is what counts.

Any previous or following trends are only worth looking at insofar as they can be used to determine the trend you are most concerned about.

Posted by steve0617 on 03-11-05 12:33 AM:

Look beneath the surface people!

The problem he is having is NOT technical. It's emotional. If he REALLY would admit why he does what he does, it's because of fear. Fear of missing out of the entire turn and fear cause by the perception of lack of abundance.

Think about it. If he TRULY believed that he could catch some of the trend and not miss out on all of it, and that that's is OK!, he wouldn't be trying to buy bottoms and sell tops.

If he TRULY knew there was another trading opportunity coming soon that will be tradeable (which there ALWAYS is - it's just is he ready for it again?), he wouldn't force the trade to try and pick off the exact correct entry.

Flashboy, this isn't about technicals. It's all fear. If you would give yourself permission to miss out on some of the move, then you might settle yourself down and stop fighting your urge to trade simply because you're afraid you're missing out and leaving money on the table. Because "my GOD! Look at it go! I am failing because I am not trading! I must predict the big turn so I can make myself feel better with this next trade because I didn't pull the trigger on the current one!"

Sound familiar to you? It did for the old me.

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-11-05 12:40 AM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

Trend is determined within a timeframe between beginning and ending points.

Regarding the P/L of a trade, these two points are 1) position entry and 2) position exit. The trend between them is what counts.

Any previous or following trends are only worth looking at insofar as they can be used to determine the trend you are most concerned about.

No, there is always 3 to remember there are 2 outs 1 in ...........

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-11-05 12:41 AM:

Quote from Pabst:

Since there's so many trend guru's here, please enlighten me. What's the trend in ES right now.

I mean this is asinine. The overall trend is up. Unless you consider a 2% correction a crash. The weekly trend is down. We are below the 21 and 34 hourly Ma's. Yet today the action was bullish and the market will probably open higher to-morrow.

So WHICH trend is the REAL trend?

No offense Pabst but did you read what you wrote? Trends exist in whatever timeframe you are trading in and they are different for each chart created.
The ES Long Term Trend (since May of 2003) is Bullish.
The ES Trend since January 2005 is Bullish.
The ES Trend since Monday, 03/07 was Bearish and as of the close today and the confirmation of the bottom, we will be Bullish till we confirm the 1229.75 top.

Confidence in one's trading comes from seeing the consistency of the trend play out perfectly each day, not thinking and just trading in the direction you KNOW price will go.

__________________
The Market is constant chaos and randomness . . . but if you find what is perfectly consistent in that chaos . . . and then trade it, trusting only yourself and what you SEE, the cloudiness the randomness causes will subside. . . . Wm Schamp (Me)

"Not everything that can be counted counts. Not everything that counts can be counted" . . . Albert Einstein

Dilute simplicity and it becomes complex. . . . me again

"I never saw an instance of one of two disputants convincing the other by argument." - Thomas Jefferson

Posted by Grob109 on 03-11-05 12:45 AM:

Quote from Lefty62151:

Hello:

snip.......

Currently I am making money using this framework. I have an ongoing presence in the market with a multi-day position, and I trade around that position intraday. One hedges the other.

Snip

I get paid to trade price.

snip

So far this year, that is 2-3 day swings, and intraday.

I hope this helps somebody.
Lefty

fastboy...this is a major clue for you. It willl hekp you greatly by smashing your current makeup to smithereens. Then you even get to see the virtue of protecting everything (this is what hedge means).

We are telling you that the trend line is not where you look.

We are telling you that opposite the trend line there is another parallel line which is exactly where the place on the chart happens to be where trend overlaps begin.

Trends overlap.

There was a person here a while back who did not understand that both lines were drawn at the beginning of a trend. So he chatted only about the one that did not matter using lingo to the hilt.

Intraday trading between the lines teaches you to discover when to do a reversal on your postion trade exactly at the beginning of the trend overlap.

The trapezoid formed by a trend envelope has a long and short diagonal. We are double teaming you here (A pro and an amateur) to get you to see the long diagonal is what is postition traded to hit position home runs. intraday trading across this diagonal by seeing it as the carrier for the intraday oscillations is very relaxing. It is so periodic and crystal clear.

Naturally there is a leading indicator of the price that you use to be especially keen.

It is boldest at the end of a long diagonal (which incidentally is the beginning of the next long diagonal). All, even in lateral trends between long and short trends.

Lefty and I are smoking hot on this one for your benefit. He knows that I am left handed as well. It is a characteristic of our kind.

Did you read that AMTSWA stuff from your three ring binder yet???

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-11-05 12:48 AM:

Quote from steve0617:

Look beneath the surface people!

The problem he is having is NOT technical. It's emotional.

Steve, you are an observant man.

To fix your problem, when you are comfortably in "Trend", execute orders in that direction and immediately exit after taking a tick or two. Do that consistently and successfully 100 times. After exiting the trade, watch it play out to where you would have normally exited based on "how you trade". After evaluating those 100 consecutive and successful trades and will be cured and pissed you didn't stay in most of them longer.

Posted by Lefty62151 on 03-11-05 12:51 AM:

Yep, emotion is a problem for most traders. I would say 95% of folks posting aren't in control of their emotions when they trade.

As for what the "real" problem is, unfortunately it is technical. Since humans have difficulty controlling emotion, the best way to remove that influence is to do your homework. If a trader knows (because he/she has done the work) that they have an edge, and they know what to expect (at the end of the week for instance), it would be less of an emotional trial, and more like pulling the handle on a slot machine.

So what you are seeing here (and it is true of many if not most retail traders) is the emotional ordeal people go through when they haven't done the prep work. Similar to the feeling one gets when they are sitting in class waitng to take finals, but they haven't studied at all

For me the truth of the matter is that we all have a choice to make, and eventually the market will make you choose. Either get your act together, and get an edge (do the homework), or it will be such an emotional ordeal that you will not want to do it anymore, or you will lose your money and you won't be able to do it anymore.

Lefty

Posted by oktiri on 03-11-05 01:04 AM:

Quote from Lefty62151:

Yep, emotion is a problem for most traders. I would say 95% of folks posting aren't in control of their emotions when they trade.

As for what the "real" problem is, unfortunately it is technical. Since humans have difficulty controlling emotion, the best way to remove that influence is to do your homework. If a trader knows (because he/she has done the work) that they have an edge, and they know what to expect (at the end of the week for instance), it would be less of an emotional trial, and more like pulling the handle on a slot machine.

So what you are seeing here (and it is true of many if not most retail traders) is the emotional ordeal people go through when they haven't done the prep work. Similar to the feeling one gets when they are sitting in class waitng to take finals, but they haven't studied at all

For me the truth of the matter is that we all have a choice to make, and eventually the market will make you choose. Either get your act together, and get an edge (do the homework), or it will be such an emotional ordeal that you will not want to do it anymore, or you will lose your money and you won't be able to do it anymore.

Lefty

depends on what you're trading, sometimes no amount of homework will help you.

Posted by steve0617 on 03-11-05 01:07 AM:

Quote from Lefty62151:

Yep, emotion is a problem for most traders. I would say 95% of folks posting aren't in control of their emotions when they trade.

As for what the "real" problem is, unfortunately it is technical. Since humans have difficulty controlling emotion, the best way to remove that influence is to do your homework. If a trader knows (because he/she has done the work) that they have an edge, and they know what to expect (at the end of the week for instance), it would be less of an emotional trial, and more like pulling the handle on a slot machine.

So what you are seeing here (and it is true of many if not most retail traders) is the emotional ordeal people go through when they haven't done the prep work. Similar to the feeling one gets when they are sitting in class waiting to take finals, but they haven't studied at all

For me the truth of the matter is that we all have a choice to make, and eventually the market will make you choose. Either get your act together, and get an edge (do the homework), or it will be such an emotional ordeal that you will not want to do it anymore, or you will lose your money and you won't be able to do it anymore.

Lefty

Lefty,

While I do agree with your statements that the prep work is mandatory, but, at least for me, and I'd bet the vast majority of traders, is, when is the information enough? When do you know enough to be able to feel that you've gotten it? Because that could take an entire career. And you'll still never make any real money because you would still act improperly because of one's uncontrolled emotions.

Obviously, if the tech side of a technical trader is lacking, no control of emotions is needed as you're not proficient enough to even begin to trade with real money. But once you've got a grip on at least *enough* tech skills to get going, you're going to run into your own head time and time again until you figure out what your particular hangups are.

Posted by electron on 03-11-05 01:10 AM:

Quote from Lefty62151:

Yep, emotion is a problem for most traders. I would say 95% of folks posting aren't in control of their emotions when they trade.

As for what the "real" problem is, unfortunately it is technical. Since humans have difficulty controlling emotion, the best way to remove that influence is to do your homework. If a trader knows (because he/she has done the work) that they have an edge, and they know what to expect (at the end of the week for instance), it would be less of an emotional trial, and more like pulling the handle on a slot machine.

So what you are seeing here (and it is true of many if not most retail traders) is the emotional ordeal people go through when they haven't done the prep work. Similar to the feeling one gets when they are sitting in class waitng to take finals, but they haven't studied at all

For me the truth of the matter is that we all have a choice to make, and eventually the market will make you choose. Either get your act together, and get an edge (do the homework), or it will be such an emotional ordeal that you will not want to do it anymore, or you will lose your money and you won't be able to do it anymore.

Lefty

Could not agree more... Unfortunately, most people are either too lazy or simply too dumb to do their homework and instead they perpetuate the myth of emotional problems.

Posted by Wallace on 03-11-05 01:10 AM:

One has the expectation the price will travel from here to there, and having reached its objective, change direction. Even without EW labeling, using a channel or pitchfork tool or just a couple of straight lines easily defines the trend. Applying fibo levels clearly illustrates how price movement interacts with significant levels even over long periods � the White fibo levels. Time targets can be obtained by Bar Counting with Fibonacci or Lucas numbers. Simple tools able to be applied to any timeframe to define the trend, its end, and beginnings. Trend changes offer the earliest opportunity to begin a trade. As the White Close MA illustrates particularly at the 2002/3 lows, such entries can be problematic, often Reversal formations occur first and large single bar price ranges can cause Stopped out trades. Another signal may be when one feels the most anxious, it's time to make the trade; alternately, the more accurate the trend direction identification, the greater the desensitization of anxiety, the greater one's trading confidence.

Posted by Pabst on 03-11-05 01:15 AM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

No offense Pabst but did you read what you wrote? Trends exist in whatever timeframe you are trading in and they are different for each chart created.
The ES Long Term Trend (since May of 2003) is Bullish.
The ES Trend since January 2005 is Bullish.
The ES Trend since Monday, 03/07 was Bearish and as of the close today and the confirmation of the bottom, we will be Bullish till we confirm the 1229.75 top.

Confidence in one's trading comes from seeing the consistency of the trend play out perfectly each day, not thinking and just trading in the direction you KNOW price will go.

The point I'm making is Flashboy started a thread beating himself up for being long yesterday on a trend day down. As a matter of fact I was short coming in not because I was going with the trend but because I was FADING the true trend. Thus you have a case of Pabst being anti trend beating Flashboy who was positioned with the macro-trend but out of sync with the day trend. ON TOP OF IT, only an asshole like me would have ADDDED in the midst of that SEVEN POINT RALLY mid morning. I'ver been trading every day for 22 years. The point I'm making is trends are TIME SPECIFIC. I know you agree so I'm not being argumentive.

__________________
Free markets for free men!

Posted by electron on 03-11-05 01:15 AM:

Quote from steve0617:

Lefty,

While I do agree with your statements that the prep work is mandatory, but, at least for me, and I'd bet the vast majority of traders, is, when is the information enough?

When you get there you will know this. It takes some time, usually more than most people would like to believe it and so no wonder that so many of them end up selling their 'methods' instead of trading them. If they got there, they would choose trading instead of peddling their 'knowledge'. As the well known saying goes 'those who know do, those who don't teach'...

Posted by Grob109 on 03-11-05 01:18 AM:

Quote from oktiri:

depends on what you're trading, sometimes no amount of homework will help you.

You are getting lousy homework assignments from someone.

Some teachers go to school to learn to teach. Other teachers go to school to learn the subject they will teach.

Here is an assignment for a money maker:

Do a MLR line and do a long diagonal. How far into the trade does convergence become divergence?

Do a pin wheel out of three different moving average lines; when does the pin wheel reverse direction?

What would happen if you if you knew the first two derivatives of price with respect to volume? A little symmetry showing up here and there??

You need to do homework that gives you a full range of biochemical releases to keep those memory traces all oiled up for monitoring. If you are blasting your brain with only the "looser" biochemicals you are just building a "flee" mentality. It is irreversable after a while.

Everytime flashboy "buys it" trading he needs to jog until he eats at a regular sitting again. Hours and hours of cleansing.

How do you go from your regular memory processes to your sports memory????

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-11-05 01:21 AM:

Quote from Pabst:

The point I'm making is Flashboy started a thread beating himself up for being long yesterday on a trend day down. As a matter of fact I was short coming in not because I was going with the trend but because I was FADING the true trend. Thus you have a case of Pabst being anti trend beating Flashboy who was positioned with the macro-trend but out of sync with the day trend. ON TOP OF IT, only an asshole like me would have ADDDED in the midst of that SEVEN POINT RALLY mid morning. I'ver been trading every day for 22 years. The point I'm making is trends are TIME SPECIFIC. I know you agree so I'm not being argumentive.

Yipeeee . . . . I have found traders that agree . . . my life is complete.

Posted by nzbryant on 03-11-05 01:28 AM:

Grob

You add a lot of value, but it's difficult when you use lingo noone else uses. Pin-wheels? No idea what that means.

Posted by steve0617 on 03-11-05 01:31 AM:

I think the point I'm making about emotions and the point some of the others are making about technicals are both correct. IMO, one cannot have control of one without control of the other. You could have drawn charts with golf pencils until your fingers bleed but if you can't manage the trade because of your overwhelming fear of loss that you close out a trade before the real move, you'll never survive, assuming that's your trading methodology.

Posted by oktiri on 03-11-05 01:36 AM:

Quote from steve0617:

I think the point I'm making about emotions and the point some of the others are making about technicals are both correct. IMO, one cannot have control of one without control of the other. You could have drawn charts with golf pencils until your fingers bleed but if you can't manage the trade because of your overwhelming fear of loss that you close out a trade before the real move, you'll never survive, assuming that's your trading methodology.

I'm pretty happy I closed a trade today because it exceeded my loss limit..otherwise, I'd be poorer typing these lines...
I thought that averaging down was one of the biggest errors newbies make, fear is quite an important part of successful trading as long as keep it under control and not the other way

Posted by nkhoi on 03-11-05 01:51 AM:

Quote from easyrider:

HE LIVES!!! Welcome back Jack.

OMG

Posted by Huios on 03-11-05 03:59 AM:

Quote from steve0617:

....one cannot have control of one without control of the other.

This is such a true statement for me.

I had to get the technicals of trend following first, then tackle the emotions of trading with the trend. I still find myself occasionally not pulling the trigger on a valid setup, only to find that i missed the "Trade of the Day" (ie the 50 pip run of the euro starting around 11:20 yesterday). But not as much as several weeks ago.

Now that my emotions are a little more under control, earlier this week i found myself tearing apart my system and rebuilding it from the ground up. It's sleeker, simpler, exact entries instead of vague, targets, runners, more specific exits, fewer rules, etc. but still has the same premises. (and i really thought i had a good plan initially, three revisions ago)

And I am only allowing myself to execute one piece at a time, doing that piece well, in essence, "earning" the right to trade the complete system.

So as one aspect gets stronger, it points out weakness in the other. strengthen those weakness, and you get new insights into the former... and so on, and so on.

Good Trading

H

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-11-05 10:35 AM:

Quote from nzbryant:

Grob

You add a lot of value, but it's difficult when you use lingo noone else uses. Pin-wheels? No idea what that means.

I laugh when when I think about the first thing I said him:

Quote from ktmexc20:
06-15-04 03:21 PM

With all intended respect Jack, you have a natural tendency to, or a designed desire to, confuse your readers. I know that, I (for one) would greatly appreciate you making an honest effort to be more concise in the conveyance of your wisdom. I think that I can represent others, in saying that...

deriving useful information from you... is like fighting a geyser to get to the gold.

lol, Jack seems to really enjoy utilizing his CLM (cognitive learning model). We know he rarely gives an explicit reply.

For help with any clarifications you could use these sources: ET search; Thefreedictionary.com(& encyclopedia); and Google.. amongst others .

Thought provocation/association is the name game.

Lingo:
I think the pinwheel is an invention to keep the mind from being overwhelmed. It's a pretty neat expression, and is adequately descriptive.. kind of like the color of light.. or lack of light. It could also be described as a factory-all compressor that gives the minimal amount of psi needed to get the job done (ie,24:2 or 192:16). But, it's only turned on when needed, and as a pre-requisite, it's regulated, so as to not blow out the o-rings or clog the filter.... lol. Since the pinwheel is simplex, I think the current challenge for learning is, the appropriation of ordinal altitudes. I mean attitudes...What ever.

Ktm'r

Posted by easyrider on 03-11-05 11:38 AM:

Quote from nzbryant:

Grob

You add a lot of value, but it's difficult when you use lingo noone else uses. Pin-wheels? No idea what that means.

My guess that he is talking about something like this:

Posted by murray t turtle on 03-11-05 01:44 PM:

Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

[QUOTE]Quote from Flashboy:

Every trend day or period like the last 3 days I always have trouble trading with the trend.

I'm always looking for that turning point so I can hop on for the big score..

I most likely need to work on my plan for trading with the trend.. and force myself to do it until I become more comfortable..

Anyone else have this problem? [/QUOTE

=========

Flashboy;

Every trend day in a bull market is bigtime different;
from the rather steep pullbacks [counter trends] this week,
evident on 20 day or 1year chart.

Yes you need to work on plan because picking tops, bottoms;
differs bigtime from trading with trend.

Airlines[LUV sector in mostly downtrends, most all timeframes];
QQQQ mostly sideways trends on 20 day charts and sideways trends [ranges] good for brokers, option sellers, not my favorite.

DIA SPY,TOL, TONS sectors still in bull market [uptrends] but ;
pulback s[countertrends ] were notably more than usual.

This week was also highly unusual in TONS sector, IBD[Investors Business Daily] had some fundamental info on charts and think the fundamantalists maybe were shocked at info on charts.

Chart showed scrap steel downtrending from $400 downtrending to about $200/ton

__________________
murray t turtle,nickname,not an alias

Posted by murray t turtle on 03-11-05 02:08 PM:

Quote from steve0617:

Lefty,

While I do agree with your statements that the prep work is mandatory, but, at least for me, and I'd bet the vast majority of traders, is, when is the information enough?

When do you know enough to be able to feel that you've gotten it? Because that could take an entire career. And you'll still never make any real money .....

========

re; doing years of research /trading work

Even though I 'm right handed, Lefty is right;
doing years of work is the tough part, because trading is harder than just knowing probabliities on trends & shorter
countertrends or sideways trends [ranges].

Steve you had a good point because info is never enough;
without actually doing like, actually trading with trend,/plan or occasional countertrends, info is never enough.

Plan written would have to include basic differences between trend/countertrend and so on.

__________________
murray t turtle,nickname,not an alias

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-11-05 02:10 PM:

The trend that takes place before position entry is not where the money is made.

Whatever price trend is going to follow position entry is not usefully predictable based on price trend before that point, using any standard method.

If it was, efficiency theory says that the difference between current price and predictable future price would be closed almost instantly, and there would not be an exploitable opportunity there.

So that's why trading the trend is difficult.

Posted by Flashboy on 03-11-05 02:14 PM:

Quote from Pabst:

Since there's so many trend guru's here, please enlighten me. What's the trend in ES right now.

I mean this is asinine. The overall trend is up. Unless you consider a 2% correction a crash. The weekly trend is down. We are below the 21 and 34 hourly Ma's. Yet today the action was bullish and the market will probably open higher to-morrow.

So WHICH trend is the REAL trend?

Pabst,

Since I trade intraday I was referring to the intermediate trend.. the 30 min. trend which was down.. but yes the daily trend has been up..

Posted by Flashboy on 03-11-05 02:20 PM:

Quote from steve0617:

Look beneath the surface people!

The problem he is having is NOT technical. It's emotional. If he REALLY would admit why he does what he does, it's because of fear. Fear of missing out of the entire turn and fear cause by the perception of lack of abundance.

Think about it. If he TRULY believed that he could catch some of the trend and not miss out on all of it, and that that's is OK!, he wouldn't be trying to buy bottoms and sell tops.

If he TRULY knew there was another trading opportunity coming soon that will be tradeable (which there ALWAYS is - it's just is he ready for it again?), he wouldn't force the trade to try and pick off the exact correct entry.

Flashboy, this isn't about technicals. It's all fear. If you would give yourself permission to miss out on some of the move, then you might settle yourself down and stop fighting your urge to trade simply because you're afraid you're missing out and leaving money on the table. Because "my GOD! Look at it go! I am failing because I am not trading! I must predict the big turn so I can make myself feel better with this next trade because I didn't pull the trigger on the current one!"

Sound familiar to you? It did for the old me.

Steve,

You couldn't be more right.. and I have gotten much much better with this.. I used to be horrible about it.. and my plan now calls to only buy bottoms if at support and a true reversal signal is present..

I do know now that I can wait for the market to show me its turning and still grab a nice trade after it has turned.. but I do miss out on good continuation trades with the trend because I am too concerned with when/where the market will reverse..

Posted by steve0617 on 03-11-05 02:29 PM:

Quote from Flashboy:

but I do miss out on good continuation trades with the trend because I am too concerned with when/where the market will reverse..

That's it. Right there. You're afraid of when the music's going to stop and you won't be able to find a seat (or in this case, get out of the seat/trade).

Try this, as it helped me. Look at the idea that *maybe* you're not built for holding the length of a tradeable trend. Consider the idea that holding out for the 'whole' thing makes you nuts and you'll never suppress your urge/fear with this.

Try sim or paper trading with higher volume but with MUCH faster initial exits/scaling out. This is what was the 'light bulb' moment for me and has what has helped me turn my corner. I don't stay in for the whole move any longer. I scale it then start scaling out quickly. It rings the cash register much earlier and makes me relax about hanging on to the last piece awaiting what might be a good move.

If you're moving all in in one trade and then moving all out, you're killing yourself like I was.

Scale in in thirds and scale out in thirds starting quickly (like a few ticks). See if that helps.

I didn't start making any $ until I started trading this way and stopped trying to fight my personality.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-11-05 02:32 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

The trend that takes place before position entry is not where the money is made.

Whatever price trend is going to follow position entry is not usefully predictable based on price trend before that point, using any standard method.

If it was, efficiency theory says that the difference between current price and predictable future price would be closed almost instantly, and there would not be an exploitable opportunity there.

So that's why trading the trend is difficult.

Your nickname makes it obvious your focus or any personal research you have ever done didn't have anything to do with validating trend theory.
I applaud your supposed success with scalping but the technique is solely based on random & chaotic attacks at price. Similar to one of those ankle biting dogs. I wish you continued success with your trading, just know that there are many of us out here successfully extracting profit from the Market on a daily basis from leisurely positioning ourselves in the direction of your non-existent trend.

Posted by Flashboy on 03-11-05 02:42 PM:

Quote from Grob109:

Did you read that AMTSWA stuff from your three ring binder yet???

Not yet.. Was very busy yesterday afternoon and have decided to take a few days off from trading..

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-11-05 02:48 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

My guess that he is talking about something like this:

As for composition, I believe you're correct. But, then there's the very interesting MLR .?.Which could/would be a seperate consideration.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-11-05 02:51 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Your nickname makes it obvious your focus or any personal research you have ever done didn't have anything to do with validating trend theory.
I applaud your supposed success with scalping but the technique is solely based on random & chaotic attacks at price. Similar to one of those ankle biting dogs. I wish you continued success with your trading, just know that there are many of us out here successfully extracting profit from the Market on a daily basis from leisurely positioning ourselves in the direction of your non-existent trend.

There will always be people of the right side of any "trend" by random distribution. The point is to reliably predict the trend before it happens, which is what so very few people do.

And none of them does it reliably using standard methods, which they soon find out.

Posted by Grob109 on 03-11-05 03:12 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

There will always be people of the right side of any "trend" by random distribution. The point is to reliably predict the trend before it happens, which is what so very few people do.

And none of them does it reliably using standard methods, which they soon find out.

Have you noticed over the years when you are on snipe hunts with your colleagues how the rules change?

Posted by easyrider on 03-11-05 03:19 PM:

Quote from Grob109:

Have you noticed over the years when you are on snipe hunts with your colleagues how the rules change?

Every time I go on one of those dang snipe hunts I always end up in the woods alone for some reason.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-11-05 03:24 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

Every time I go on one of those dang snipe hunts I always end up in the woods alone for some reason.

yeah, well ya gotta be fast on your feet... stay ahead of the crowd.

Posted by ae_trading on 03-11-05 03:31 PM:

Thought you might like this KISS method of getting on board a trend. Applicable to any timeframe you wish.

http://www.maoxian.com/archive/20030711.html

ae_trading

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-11-05 03:42 PM:

Quote from Grob109:

Have you noticed over the years when you are on snipe hunts with your colleagues how the rules change?

Without change, even money can be boring.

Posted by Flashboy on 03-11-05 03:51 PM:

Just when I decide to take a few days off I get my favorite setup at 9:55 this morning in ES...

A true test would have been to see if I would have hung on for the further drop or cashed out after 3 - 4 points.

Posted by slapshot on 03-11-05 04:12 PM:

Been there, done that...

Quote from Flashboy:

Every trend day or period like the last 3 days I always have trouble trading with the trend.

I'm always looking for that turning point so I can hop on for the big score..

I most likely need to work on my plan for trading with the trend.. and force myself to do it until I become more comfortable..

Anyone else have this problem?

I have struggled with this in the past as part of my learning curve - for a long time it was costing me big money as I would get stopped out of the same trade over and over, refusing to reverse my position in spite of what in later examination was an obvious trend against my position direction.

What helped me stop doing it? The first thing is that before trading, I look at the 60 min trend across the last few days, and resolve to only trade in harmony with it until I see definite signs of a reversal.

This brings me to the other thing - I had to define and trade with discipline my own personal criteria of a reversal (needs to have a divergence in it) and stop trying to pick the exact top/bottom - I have learned that any trend worth trading does not require me to be the first one in or out.

Hope this helps.

Paul

__________________
"MY LIFE IS NOT MY ENEMY - BUT SOMETIMES MY THINKING IS!"

Posted by nononsense on 03-11-05 04:18 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

Every time I go on one of those dang snipe hunts I always end up in the woods alone for some reason.

That's because you can't find "The Trend".

Posted by Tonkadad on 03-11-05 04:57 PM:

The winner is?

I would say the first issue is with the way you phrased your question
"Why can't I trade with the trend" as Steve already said it implies lack.
"How can I learn to trade the trend even better" would be more appropriate.

You need to "listen" to the conversation that�s going on in your mind, when you are trading and thinking about trading and anything thing to do with trading and for that matter just about everything in your life.

If I may be so presumptuous I would say you live in a "mentality of lack" in more areas of your life than just trading, most of us do.

It usually takes painful experiences (trading sure can give us plenty of those) to get us to a point where we begin to look inward, to ask questions. Now it is important to ask the properly phrased questions in a positive twist. Instead of saying �why can�t I this or that� say it from a positive viewpoint �how can I do this or that even better�.

I think even more important than trading capital is self-esteem/self worth capital.
(I have more to share but right at the moment I have to go make biscuits for my 2 boys)

��

Posted by balda on 03-11-05 05:22 PM:

It is very simple, (someone said simple not same as easy)

1. definition of the trend
2. definition of reversal
3. definition of a pull back

And you can't have target of a 60min chart with a stop on 5 min chart.

Now we go back to DBPhoenix I mean basics.

How can someone trade without definition?

DBPhoenix said many times You need to define trend before you can trade with it or something like that.

__________________
It doesn't matter where you get in, it where you get out that counts

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-11-05 05:28 PM:

Good 'ol db, lol. Is he still around at all?

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-11-05 05:59 PM:

Quote from balda:

It is very simple, (someone said simple not same as easy)

1. definition of the trend
2. definition of reversal
3. definition of a pull back

How can someone trade without definition?

DBPhoenix said many times You need to define trend before you can trade with it or something like that.

You can't but most traders do not know how to define "trend" in their intraday or position environment.

Posted by Walther on 03-11-05 06:28 PM:

Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from Flashboy:

Every trend day or period like the last 3 days I always have trouble trading with the trend.

I'm always looking for that turning point so I can hop on for the big score..

I most likely need to work on my plan for trading with the trend.. and force myself to do it until I become more comfortable..

Anyone else have this problem?

This might help you to determine the trend. Draw trendlines connecting price bottoms and price tops. Everything inside is a part of the trend.
If you know where to find turning points then just buy or sell minor bottoms and tops outside of trendlines.
If you do not know how to find turning points yet , start working on it.

Posted by balda on 03-11-05 06:33 PM:

Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from Walther:

This might help you to determine the trend. Draw trendlines connecting price bottoms and price tops. Everything inside is a part of the trend.
If you know where to find turning points then just buy or sell minor bottoms and tops outside of trendlines.
If you do not know how to find turning points yet , start working on it.

How many candles should I use 1,2,3,...15 ?
If you draw a trend line after the move how is that going to help you?

Can you draw a trend line on a qqqq at the moment and tell me where to enter?

__________________
It doesn't matter where you get in, it where you get out that counts

Posted by balda on 03-11-05 07:03 PM:

which trend line should I use?
Or is it too late?

__________________
It doesn't matter where you get in, it where you get out that counts

Posted by Flashboy on 03-11-05 07:07 PM:

Quote from balda:

which trend line should I use?
Or is it too late?

My opinion on this being a day trader is the 30 min. trend is still strongly down.. no reason to get out of any shorts.

Now actually being able to trade it that way is somewhat difficult for me of course..

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-11-05 07:07 PM:

Quote from balda:

If you draw a trend line after the move how is that going to help you?

Trend is the imaginary friend of many.

Posted by PitchBlack on 03-11-05 07:10 PM:

Quote from balda:

which trend line should I use?
Or is it too late?

Your question proofs already the worth of trendlines.
You can drawn as many trendlines as you wish; and i garantee you that afterwards 1 of them will surely have been the right one. Problem is only to know in advance which one to take.

To me trends are based on momentum. But because momentums change slowly you have to find a way to get faster signals.

Posted by nononsense on 03-11-05 07:15 PM:

Why don't we dispatch "Trend" to Chit-Chat?

Posted by balda on 03-11-05 07:19 PM:

Quote from nononsense:

Why don't we dispatch "Trend" to Chit-Chat?

How trend is not related to trading?

can you define a chit-chat?

__________________
It doesn't matter where you get in, it where you get out that counts

Posted by balda on 03-11-05 07:21 PM:

this is q's daily since late January. Some say we are in a down trend.

__________________
It doesn't matter where you get in, it where you get out that counts

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-11-05 07:37 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from balda:

How many candles should I use 1,2,3,...15 ?
If you draw a trend line after the move how is that going to help you?

Can you draw a trend line on a qqqq at the moment and tell me where to enter?

Sure, no problem.
If you have a problem reading either the longer term trend here (Higher highs & Higher Lows) or the reading the pullbacks (from the higher high to the higher low or from the higher low to the higher high) I'll give you the name of a couple elementary logic books to smooth the process out for you.

Posted by Walther on 03-11-05 08:04 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from balda:

How many candles should I use 1,2,3,...15 ?
If you draw a trend line after the move how is that going to help you?

Can you draw a trend line on a qqqq at the moment and tell me where to enter?

How many candles ? For daytrading I use 5 min charts to determine trend, then 1 min to pinpoint reversals.

Trendlines continue into the future and if drawn correctly they can be very decent predictive tool . So if one knows how to draw trendlines, one can know areas of reversals. I think this might be helpful to many.

Yes, enter Monday 9:55 est .

Posted by PitchBlack on 03-11-05 08:12 PM:

As daytrader i look for the trend on 60 minutes charts; look for entry points on 15 minutes charts; and fine tune on 3 minutes charts.

I don't scalp, i try to take the maximum ride. Today short at 1217 (ES june 2005) and still short. The profit is in the big moves, not in the scalps.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-11-05 08:16 PM:

Quote from ********:

As daytrader i look for the trend on 60 minutes charts; look for entry points on 15 minutes charts; and fine tune on 3 minutes charts.

I don't scalp, i try to take the maximum ride. Today short at 1217 (ES june 2005) and still short. The profit is in the big moves, not in the scalps.

Nice . . . almost identical here except I exited for lunch @ 11 am EST and re-entered short @ 1 pm.
I love trading those non-existent imaginary trends. 15 points of imaginary trend money.

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-11-05 08:29 PM:

How many of you chaps would trade the H/S the right sholder has less VOL than the left .or would you rather stick with the trading trend,or would this be a second confermation for you ,The pattern started 2march on ES mar now ESjune..

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by Flashboy on 03-11-05 08:44 PM:

Would like to explain the events that transpired causing me to start this thread .. if you're interested read on.. if not, please skip.

Someone pointed out that I was trying to bottom pick for maximum profit gain and they were right on the money. But I'm going to explain why I was trading that way.

My trading has come a long way. I've gotten much much better.. I had a good run of 11 days being profitable.. didn't follow my plan to a T but very close.. was patient.. could have been much more profitable had I stayed in some trades but the fear I have of losing back profits caused me to bail too early.

Anyway, then Wednesday hit .. I took a long on the gap down in ES.. turned out to be a loser... even moved my stop a point lower to try and wait out the correction.. turned into a decent size loss.. Well thats when my proper trading went out the window.. thats when I started looking for trend reversals for maximum profit cause that was what was going to get me back my loss.. instead of going with the flow and trading properly my loss caused me to throw all my trading rules out of the window and look only for a reversal.. and of course when you're down and out you tend to see trades that aren't really there.. which I did... causing even a bigger loss..

Now I feel that I know how to trade.. but knowing how and executing are very different as most profitable traders know

hope this made sense..

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-11-05 09:01 PM:

Trade what you SEE not what you THINK

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-11-05 09:04 PM:

I hate that verse,but it,s so true .......

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by slapshot on 03-11-05 11:54 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

Trend is the imaginary friend of many.

I am glad you are there for my trend trade liquidity...

...but I'm not sure I get why you would mock something you obviously don't understand well enough to implement successfully for YOU.

Trends in markets are a FACT, not an opinion - the exact definition of a trend is more art than science and depends on one's time frame but the fact that they exist is undisputed reality.

Many successful traders can use this to increase the likelihood that we don't get stopped out and allow our winners to run...

__________________
"MY LIFE IS NOT MY ENEMY - BUT SOMETIMES MY THINKING IS!"

Posted by Grob109 on 03-12-05 12:09 AM:

Quote from balda:

which trend line should I use?
Or is it too late?

Try reading the annotations very very very thoroughly. take the original Print it 10 times and draw everything I did 10 times or until you do it once without a mistake.

Posted by volente_00 on 03-12-05 12:18 AM:

You need to incorporate MACD into your intraday charts and then the trend will be easier to trade.

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-12-05 12:20 AM:

(vol) goes with price (price)goes with vol,This is crap ,It,s all in the (bid)&(ask)

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-12-05 12:29 AM:

Quote from volente_00:

You need to incorporate MACD into your intraday charts and then the trend will be easier to trade.

Which trend (major) (secondery) (minor)

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by volente_00 on 03-12-05 12:31 AM:

Also on days like weds, Keep an eye on the size of the sells, I strictly trade the YM, but on weds all day there was large size pummeling the bid with hardly any large buys. When the red bars are that large and frequent, you are just asking for trouble trying to fade them.

Posted by Equalizer on 03-12-05 12:33 AM:

Quote from nononsense:

Why don't we dispatch "Trend" to Chit-Chat?

Why?

Or am I asking too much - i.e. your response will be the usual one-liner "noise".

It does not matter if these trends are real or imagined. All that matters is this - Can these guys make money following what they believe is the trend, in whatever timeframe.

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-12-05 12:46 AM:

Quote from nononsense:

Why don't we dispatch "Trend" to Chit-Chat?

from the 10th To 12th with 19-20 page response and you want to move it ???flash needs help ,so let it go on & keep oktiri,yenzen,out

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-12-05 12:48 AM:

Thay hate us ,But crave or way of life,...................

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by volente_00 on 03-12-05 12:54 AM:

It works with any time frame.

http://stockcharts.com/education/In...ndic_MACD1.html

Posted by VictorS on 03-12-05 03:21 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from ProfLogic:

I'll give you the name of a couple elementary logic books to smooth the process out for you.

Prof, still feel free to post those logic books.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 03:49 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from VictorS:

Prof, still feel free to post those logic books.

First Understand the Logic:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/A...6945639-5913707

or

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...=glance&s=books

Once you read them . . . read this . . .

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/A...6945639-5913707

Trading isn't copying others opinions . . . it is learning to "READ" Market movement yourself so YOU can trade exactly what you SEE!! Nobody pulls the trigger on a trade but YOU so you HAVE to be 100% CONFIDENT in your decision!!

Posted by growltiger on 03-12-05 09:34 AM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

Good 'ol db, lol. Is he still around at all?

Think he is running forums on T2W

Posted by nononsense on 03-12-05 11:04 AM:

Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Why Can't I Trade with the Trend?
(some think that only about 5% of the aspiring traders will ever discover it)

nononsense will once more try to answer this.

Very simple, cause "the Trend" is something like Santa Claus. If you really want it, you have to make or invent one for yourself that works. Not many know about this.

Posted by PitchBlack on 03-12-05 12:30 PM:

Quote from volente_00:

You need to incorporate MACD into your intraday charts and then the trend will be easier to trade.

This is a very important tip. Only problem is that no one realizes how important MACD is.
For me it is the difference between losing lots of money and winning lots of money.

Nononsense:

to you the trend is like Santa Claus; to me it is a reality. It's not because you're not able to find him that he doesn't exist.
The knowledge a person has is defined by the limitations of that person. It is not directly related to intelligence as most people think.
Some persons have gifts that others don't have. Some see the trend, some will never.
Some are open minded, others not.
Some can think very analytical, some not.
Some believe only what they know, some know that there are thinks that go beyond their proper capabilities.

If there are things that i don't believe or don't understand, i say that it doesn't work for me, i will never say that is doesn't exist. I know that i have my limitations. So my conclusions have to take that in account.

(I'm not sure the last phrase was in good english.)

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-12-05 01:34 PM:

I don't understand the argument. The possibility for a trend to not exist, is only if the elements of opposing forces are completely neutralized. An astronomical improbability.

A given noise factor though, is another consideration to be reckoned. Which is where channels (as a scope) work as a wonderful tool over a mere line.

Confidence intervals can sometimes be useful as boundaries, as well.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 01:50 PM:

Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from nononsense:

Why Can't I Trade with the Trend?
(some think that only about 5% of the aspiring traders will ever discover it)

nononsense will once more try to answer this.

Very simple, cause "the Trend" is something like Santa Claus. If you really want it, you have to make or invent one for yourself that works. Not many know about this.

And ProfLogic will again respond to nononesense and say that whatever illegal drugs he was taking as a youth are still effecting his reasoning process.

Posted by nononsense on 03-12-05 04:05 PM:

Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from ProfLogic:

And ProfLogic will again respond to nononesense and say that whatever illegal drugs he was taking as a youth are still effecting his reasoning process.

Prof? Logic?

Since eons, nononsense firmly files your posts in the 95% sucker-category. Nothing 'Prof'. Nothing 'Logic'.

You are fully incompetent in speculating about nononsense's youth.

PS: I just found out that you seem to be a 'Holy Grail Peddler' albeit with a warning on his site:
Due to problems with "Theft of Information" and harassment this Website is CLOSED
Did some sucker try to steal "the Trend" from you?
nononsense doesn't peddle anything at all. He loves a good laugh.

Posted by nononsense on 03-12-05 04:12 PM:

Quote from ********:

[...]
(I'm not sure the last phrase was in good english.)

Didn't bother checking.

From your reply, I infer that you also seem to have trouble reading short English sequels.

I merely pointed out that for most "the Trend" remains illusive.

Hope this helps,

nononsense

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 05:15 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from nononsense:

Prof? Logic?

Since eons, nononsense firmly files your posts in the 95% sucker-category. Nothing 'Prof'. Nothing 'Logic'.

You are fully incompetent in speculating about nononsense's youth.

PS: I just found out that you seem to be a 'Holy Grail Peddler' albeit with a warning on his site:
Due to problems with "Theft of Information" and harassment this Website is CLOSED
Did some sucker try to steal "the Trend" from you?
nononsense doesn't peddle anything at all. He loves a good laugh.

I was making a joke about your youth. I see your sense of humor is in the same place as your object reasoning though. At least you are consistent.

"Holy Grail Peddler", that's interesting. What I tell traders is that ones ability to read price action from predetermined and specific chart increments and defined and consistent points is a trader's Holy Grail to successful trading. I teach traders NOT to trust anything anyone tells them, to only trust what they can verify with their own two eyes and perfect consistency.

As far as the peddling part. My site is break-even venture dedicated toward dispelling the inconsistent discretionary techniques taught in books and by people who don't trade. But then of course you are one of those individuals who would prefer to take things out of context instead of taking anything literally . . . similar to your trading philosophy. Comprehension of what you read is a variable anomaly.

I wish all traders success in whatever method they choose to focus on. Just don't not dispel something you don't understand based on no information or the miss-information you were given previously. Trust only what you can verify on your own. Ask questions . . . lots of questions. And come to conclusions YOU are comfortable with. Common sense conclusions are easy to see. Dig deeper if things don't come to common sense conclusions.

My stuff is absolutely worthless so no threat to you or your vast intellectual level. And I can't imagine why anyone in their right mind would want to steal such worthless common sense stuff . . . but they do.

I do beg to differ with you on one points though. You do peddle something . . . your view of poking fun at individuals that think for themselves. Original thought is not a defect, remember that the next time you turn on a light sending current to the bulb.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-12-05 05:39 PM:

If price action after a given point in time can be predicted using standard methods based on price action beforehand, then, according to efficiency theory, it won't happen.

Posted by PetaDollar on 03-12-05 06:02 PM:

Pete's Hypothesis:

As the number of pages in the thread reaches double digits, the discussion must converge on AT LEAST one of these three limiting topics:

(1) "The market is random"
(2) "TA doesn't work"
(3) "You are a total asshole"

We have now hit both (1) and (3), waiting for (2) then we can close the thread.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-12-05 06:12 PM:

Quote from peterfigliozzi:

Pete's Hypothesis:

As the number of pages in the thread reaches double digits, the discussion must converge on AT LEAST one of these three limiting topics:

(1) "The market is random"
(2) "TA doesn't work"
(3) "You are a total asshole"

We have now hit both (1) and (3), waiting for (2) then we can close the thread.

Number three could be true if you believe number one and continue to trade.

Posted by nononsense on 03-12-05 06:36 PM:

Quote from peterfigliozzi:

Pete's Hypothesis:

As the number of pages in the thread reaches double digits, the discussion must converge on AT LEAST one of these three limiting topics:

[...]

Great post Pete! Let me play a trader's oldie for it:

"Subscribers here by thousands float, and jostle one another down, Each paddling in his leaky boat, and here they fish for gold and drown. Now buried in the depths below. New mounted up to heaven again, they reel and stagger to and fro, At their wits' end. like drunken men. Meantime, secure on Garraway cliffs, A savage race, by shipwrecks fed, Lie waiting for the foundered skiffs, and strip the bodies of the dead."
Jonathan Swift

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-12-05 06:42 PM:

Quote from nononsense:

"Subscribers here by thousands float, and jostle one another down, Each paddling in his leaky boat, and here they fish for gold and drown. Now buried in the depths below. New mounted up to heaven again, they reel and stagger to and fro, At their wits' end. like drunken men. Meantime, secure on Garraway cliffs, A savage race, by shipwrecks fed, Lie waiting for the foundered skiffs, and strip the bodies of the dead."
Jonathan Swift

Another argument for not attempting to follow imaginary trends.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 07:11 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

If price action after a given point in time can be predicted using standard methods based on price action beforehand, then, according to efficiency theory, it won't happen.

Price action can't be predicted but one can teach themself to "read" it.
I agree, standard methodologies can't accomplish this.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 07:13 PM:

Quote from peterfigliozzi:

Pete's Hypothesis:

As the number of pages in the thread reaches double digits, the discussion must converge on AT LEAST one of these three limiting topics:

(1) "The market is random"
(2) "TA doesn't work"
(3) "You are a total asshole"

We have now hit both (1) and (3), waiting for (2) then we can close the thread.

Patience . . . this to should arrive . . . lol

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 07:21 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

Another argument for not attempting to follow imaginary trends.

Yup, Electricity doesn't trend, ocean waves do not trend, DNA doesn't trend, there are no trends associated with the Laws of Physics, cycles aren't made up of trends, etc. . . . trends are imaginary, purely the ingredient of dreams and fairy tales.

Posted by Lefty62151 on 03-12-05 07:35 PM:

I say this often. Don't know why I bother. I perfer to be one of the "savage race". But periodically I get the urge to say a few things. Who knows. Yes its true you can't predict trend. However you can predict tidal movement and that is what price does. Moves one way, and eventually, inorexably, the other. Knowing that, one can choose to be positioned like a surfer out on the ocean, waiting for the next wave. You have to know where to wait, and you have to start paddling at the right time or the wave will pass you by. If you don't know how to handle your board, you are likely to get knocked around a bit, but eventually you can, if you get your skills together, learn to ride. Probably won't learn about it asking others to tell you how its done however

Please do continue to give each other "written" surfing lessons. Its very entertaining to watch.

Lefty

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-12-05 07:53 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Price action can't be predicted but once can teach themself to "read" it.
I agree, standard methodologies can't accomplish this.

Well stated.

I would be specific: Future price action can't be predicted solely from past price action using standard methods.

This phraseology addresses why such a large majority of traders fail.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 07:56 PM:

Quote from Lefty62151:

I say this often. Don't know why I bother. I perfer to be one of the "savage race". But periodically I get the urge to say a few things. Who knows. Yes its true you can't predict trend. However you can predict tidal movement and that is what price does. Moves one way, and eventually, inorexably, the other. Knowing that, one can choose to be positioned like a surfer out on the ocean, waiting for the next wave. You have to know where to wait, and you have to start paddling at the right time or the wave will pass you by. If you don't know how to handle your board, you are likely to get knocked around a bit, but eventually you can, if you get your skills together, learn to ride. Probably won't learn about it asking others to tell you how its done however

Please do continue to give each other "written" surfing lessons. Its very entertaining to watch.

Lefty

Lefty, that response earned you a free dinner on me if we ever meet. Surfs Up!

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-12-05 08:15 PM:

Quote from Lefty62151:

Yes its true you can't predict trend. However you can predict tidal movement and that is what price does. Moves one way, and eventually, inorexably, the other.

The tide moves about a constant level.

Not so with market prices.

Posted by BSAM on 03-12-05 08:36 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

.....I would be specific: Future price action can't be predicted solely from past price action using standard methods......

Nickel.....

HUH?

This has me so confused I can't even type my response properly. However, if you can unscramble my response (below), I'd be interested in hearing your comments (or anyone else's).

ERA OUY GNIYAS HATT TRPUSPO NDA SCENASIERT NO'DT KROW???!!!???

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-12-05 08:41 PM:

Quote from BSAM:

Nickel.....

HUH? This has me so confused I can't even type my response properly. However, if you can unscramble my response (below), I'd be interested in hearing your comments (or anyone else's).

ERA OUY GNIYAS HATT TRPUSPO NDA SCENASIERT NO'DT KROW???!!!???

At least my post wasn't intentionally obscure.

What, exactly, is unclear to you?

Posted by BSAM on 03-12-05 08:44 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

At least my post wasn't intentionally obscure.

What, exactly, is unclear to you?

LOL!!! Just thought we'd have a little fun this afternoon! I'll clarify it just for you.

Here's the non-obscure version (I suddenly snapped out of the trance):

ARE YOU SAYING THAT SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE DON'T WORK???!!!???

Posted by nononsense on 03-12-05 08:50 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Price action can't be predicted but one can teach themself to "read" it.
I agree, standard methodologies can't accomplish this.

Sounds great!
But why else would you want to "read" price action (as you call it) than to place an order based on it and profit from it. Ain't that predicting? If you prefer call it divining or prophetizing.

Quote from ProfLogic:

Market prices mirror this action due to being born out of the same type of random chaotic environment as anything else effected by the Laws of Physics.

__________________
The Market is NOT Chaos and Randomness . . .

Come on Prof? Logic?
Mumbo Jumbo.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 08:53 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

The tide moves about a constant level.

Not so with market prices.

The tide is not constant. Every High tide is different from it's last and every Low tide is different from it's last and every High Tide is proportionally different from the last sequential Low tide and every Low tide is proportionally different from it's last High tide. But the tide's trend is determined by plotting the high tide and low tide levels making higher highs & higher lows or lower highs and lower lows.
Wow, that sounds really familiar . . . where have I heard that before.
Market prices mirror this action due to being born out of the same type of random chaotic environment as anything else effected by the Laws of Physics.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-12-05 08:59 PM:

Quote from BSAM:

LOL!!! Just thought we'd have a little fun this afternoon! I'll clarify it just for you.

Here's the non-obscure version (I suddenly snapped out of the trance):

ARE YOU SAYING THAT SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE DON'T WORK???!!!???

That depends on how you use them.

If you and 5,000 other traders and a few dozen black boxes are using the same approach, then good luck, you're going to need it.

Posted by BSAM on 03-12-05 09:09 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

That depends on how you use them.

If you and 5,000 other traders and a few dozen black boxes are using the same approach, then good luck, you're going to need it.

Well, here's how it works: The smart money VERY OFTEN buys at support and sells at resistance. Then they exercise appropriate money management principles and take into consideration market conditions, etc., etc. See, it's not such a mystery, as some here would have lots of newbies believe. But then, I don't have a website or any newsletters or similar propaganda to sell anyone.

No, I'm not saying you do, either. I wouldn't really know. But lots who show up here do.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 09:10 PM:

Quote from nononsense:

Sounds great!
But why else would you want to "read" price action (as you call it) than to place an order based on it and profit from it. Ain't that predicting? If you prefer call it divining or prophetizing.

Come on Prof? Logic?
Mumbo Jumbo.

NOnonSENSE,

First you have to understand and trust that trends exist and can be acted on in realtime. That isn't faith-based, that is a learned trait. Something that takes dedication, desire and patience.

Based on "A" specific "Time"frame, the E-mini S&P (for example) has been in a CONFIRMED uptrend since May of 2003, constantly, consistently and sequentially making Higher Resistance Highs and Higher Support Lows. A Bull Trend by the most elementary definitions of the term. By strictly defining the Minor oscillations in-between those longer term Higher Resistance Highs and Higher Support Lows, a trader can "READ" the minor Support failures as ultra-conservative buying opportunities to challenge the last sequential minor & longer term Resistance highs.
Price will continue to make higher highs and higher lows until price creates specific & sequential lower Resistance highs & lower Support lows breaking the Bull trend and turning it bearish.

Price will go up until it confirms it will not go up any further . . . then it will go down.
Price will then go down until it confirms it will not go down any further . . . then it will go up.
Forever
and ever
and ever and ever

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-12-05 09:15 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

The tide is not constant. Every High tide is different from it's last and every Low tide is different from it's last and every High Tide is proportionally different from the last sequential Low tide and every Low tide is proportionally different from it's last High tide. But the tide's trend is determined by plotting the high tide and low tide levels making higher highs & higher lows or lower highs and lower lows.

The tide oscillates to either side of a constant depth.

When the water is going up, you may not know how far it will go, but there's always the reference line to which the level must return and then continue from there downward.

Markets don't act like that.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 09:20 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

The tide oscillates to either side of a constant depth.

When the water is going up, you may not know how far it will go, but there's always the reference line to which the level must return and then continue from there downward.

Markets don't act like that.

The constant depth of the Markets are total of the contracts traded within it. High tide and Low tide is the RANGE of the tides NOT the depth too.

And the Markets DO act JUST like that. Take your sentence above and replace the word water with price and spend a day at the ocean watching the waves through 2 full cycles of High and Low tides. Then tell me that action doesn't exist in the Market. You won't believe it till you do it.

Posted by BA_Trader on 03-12-05 09:20 PM:

Quote from Lefty62151:

Please do continue to give each other "written" surfing lessons. Its very entertaining to watch.

Lefty

I've often thought that learning to trade through reading (books,
posts, or what have you) is similar to learning to dance by
looking at a series of still pictures.

btw - IMO you are a huge boost to the collective intelligence of
ET.

__________________
"Every man today is the result of his thoughts yesterday." -Bruce Lee

Posted by nononsense on 03-12-05 09:24 PM:

Quote from BSAM:

Well, here's how it works: The smart money VERY OFTEN buys at support and sells at resistance. Then they exercise appropriate money management principles and take into consideration market conditions, etc., etc. See, it's not such a mystery, as some here would have lots of newbies believe. But then, I don't have a website or any newsletters or similar propaganda to sell anyone. No, I'm not saying you do, either. I wouldn't really know. But lots who show up here do.

Hey BSAM:

Don't bring in that other sacred cow: 'MM'. Like Pete already said: enough is enough.

Of course, "the TREND", support, resistance and even MM make sense for each of us individually. (At least for those not in the 95% segment chipping in for the profits of the few).

As my approach is 100% 'mechanized decision making', I indeed deal with what I would prefer to call 'decision variables' that enter into my approach.

Of course, I could call some variables trend1, trend2, support1, etc. What you call trend may be vaguely related to what I labelled as trend2, but I wouldn't want to risk a penny on your trend before I understood what you were talking about. If your trend works well for you, you should be out of your mind to fill me in on its working. I wouldn't either.

This kind of sums it up.
Be good,
nononsense

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-12-05 09:24 PM:

Quote from BSAM:

Well, here's how it works: The smart money VERY OFTEN buys at support and sells at resistance.

If it was public knowledge what the "smart money" is doing, then everyone would be doing it.

Posted by BSAM on 03-12-05 09:31 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

If it was public knowledge what the "smart money" is doing, then everyone would be doing it.

I figured you already knew. You seem like a pretty bright person. However, figuring out where S/R is. Well, that's sometimes not so easy for some to figure out. I mean the basic premise is fairly simple. I think a lot of people mess up in the area of money management. (Sorry for mentioning MM nononsense, but in the spirit of "nononsense" here on this thread, I'm just trying to add some clarity.)

Posted by hank rollins on 03-12-05 09:31 PM:

Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from Flashboy:

Every trend day or period like the last 3 days I always have trouble trading with the trend.

I'm always looking for that turning point so I can hop on for the big score..

I most likely need to work on my plan for trading with the trend.. and force myself to do it until I become more comfortable..

Anyone else have this problem?

ah, maybe cause there's no such thing as trend.

trend only exists in hindsight.

one day you will learn.

han

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-12-05 09:32 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Take your sentence above and replace the word water with price and spend a day at the ocean watching the waves through 2 full cycles of High and Low tides. Then tell me that action doesn't exist in the Market.

In that case, give me an example of a publicly traded instrument whose price rises and falls but always returns to a constant middle value. And what is that value?

Posted by hank rollins on 03-12-05 09:37 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

In that case, give me an example of a publicly traded instrument whose price rises and falls but always returns to a constant middle value. And what is that value?

dr.logic and i have gone round and round on this issue.

although obviously quite intelligent, he is suffering from a common delusion affecting the majority of market participants.

regards,

hank

__________________
open up the borders to the river running green, cause i've got tranches full of dollars to trade for gasoline.......

Posted by BSAM on 03-12-05 09:38 PM:

Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from hank rollins:

ah, maybe cause there's no such thing as trend.

trend only exists in hindsight.

one day you will learn.

han

Surf, Surf, Surf....."Trend only exists in hindsight"??? Give me a BAAAHRAKE!

Posted by Jane Doe on 03-12-05 09:44 PM:

why can't johnny trade?

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-12-05 09:45 PM:

Quote from hank rollins:

dr.logic and i have gone round and round on this issue.

although obviously quite intelligent, he is suffering from a common delusion affecting the majority of market participants.

regards,

hank

Someone better call the logic repairman.

Delusions can be costly in this racket, no question about it.

Posted by hank rollins on 03-12-05 09:48 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from BSAM:

Surf, Surf, Surf....."Trend only exists in hindsight"??? Give me a BAAAHRAKE!

yeah, man. i stand by my statement.

think about it.... you never know when the "trend" is going to end, and what part of the "trend" you entered the trade in. if you have a winning trade...you can say---i caught the trend, i am with the trend. a losing trade, obviously you are not with the trend. you only KNOW for sure about the trend after you enter the trade and the trend is directly related to your success in the trade or lack there of.

if you flip a coin 10 times and comes up heads 10 times, are you in a "heads" trend ? see what i mean ?

nice to see you here !

Posted by BSAM on 03-12-05 09:53 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from hank rollins:

yeah, man. i stand by my statement.

think about it.... you never know when the "trend" is going to end.....

You seem to be in search of something that works 100% of the time. Of course, NOTHING does. And, to keep a long story, short; this is all part of one's MM methods. Trends DEFINITELY occur. Some are so obvious, even Stevie Wonder could see them!!

Posted by hank rollins on 03-12-05 09:58 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from BSAM:

You seem to be in search of something that works 100% of the time. Of course, NOTHING does. And, to keep a long story, short; this is all part of one's MM methods. Trends DEFINITELY occur. Some are so obvious, even Stevie Wonder could see them!!

sure they occur.

BUT they exist only in the past.

anyone can see a trending MA--but once again, its the PAST.

hank

Posted by BA_Trader on 03-12-05 10:01 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from hank rollins:

anyone can see a trending MA--but once again, its the PAST.

But isn't the past just yesterday's future?

__________________
"Every man today is the result of his thoughts yesterday." -Bruce Lee

Posted by Jane Doe on 03-12-05 10:02 PM:

Do real traders talk like this?

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-12-05 10:07 PM:

Quote from Jane Doe:

Do real traders talk like this?

Yes, but patrons must use the spittoon.

Posted by BA_Trader on 03-12-05 10:07 PM:

Quote from Jane Doe:

Do real traders talk like this?

do you mean through an alias?

If so... then no I don't think so.

__________________
"Every man today is the result of his thoughts yesterday." -Bruce Lee

Posted by Jane Doe on 03-12-05 10:12 PM:

Quote from BA_Trader:

do you mean through an alias?

If so... then no I don't think so.

no, i mean questioning (still) whether trends exist. to any real (experienced) trader obvious they do. i mean, duh, who could make any money if they didn't?

Posted by OldTrader on 03-12-05 10:23 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from hank rollins:

yeah, man. i stand by my statement.

think about it.... you never know when the "trend" is going to end, and what part of the "trend" you entered the trade in. if you have a winning trade...you can say---i caught the trend, i am with the trend. a losing trade, obviously you are not with the trend. you only KNOW for sure about the trend after you enter the trade and the trend is directly related to your success in the trade or lack there of.

if you flip a coin 10 times and comes up heads 10 times, are you in a "heads" trend ? see what i mean ?

nice to see you here !

Evidently you believe that trends do in fact exist....but only in hindsight. This is an immense improvement to the nononsense view that trends don't exist, eventhough even a cursory view of a price chart on virtually any time interval reveals an obvious trend of one kind or another.

I presume that when you say that a trend only exists in "hindsight" you are essentially saying that the trend is non-predictable. This of course is going to reflect your experience with prediction....which I presume in your case has been sub-par.

Just a thought though. I think it is possible to determine the conditions upon which the trend "might" change. One need only enter a trade then to find out if this is so. If it is not so, the price will soon tell him he is wrong. And if you have selected the right kind of conditions then it may also be so that one may not have to risk much to find out if the trend is in fact changing.

But one thing my Daddy used to tell me: "Son, you can't go bear hunting with a switch". Meaning: if you want to ride a 3-day trend, you can't do it with a 2 point trailing stop. And, it's very difficult to do by using a 5 minute chart. My guess is that the 5 minute chart has predicted 100 of the last 5 decent 3 day moves.

Either way, we know that trends do in fact exist. They exist in every time frame and are obvious upon inspection of a price chart. That leaves it up to the trader to inspect what takes place at the beginnings and endings of trends so that he may have a foundation for a strategy the next time said conditions take place.

Once a trend has started, we cannot know when it will end....this being the other corollory to some of the statements here. In fact, we know through logic that in any trend there is only one beginning point, and one ending point. Therefore, it seems clear that if one were to make a trade in the direction of the trend then the odds vastly favor him, since the likelihood that you could pick the exact low or high are almost remote. And if you do? That's what stops are for. The point is that the uncertainty of knowing when a trend begins works in your favor when applied to the time that the trend ends...it's equally uncertain.

My last comment would be that trends begin and end in a small time frame. But successful 3 day moves need more in place than simply something negative in a small time frame. Therefore, to trade with the bigger trends one needs to be observant to more than the small time frames.

OldTrader

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-12-05 10:30 PM:

Quote from Jane Doe:

no, i mean questioning (still) whether trends exist. to any real (experienced) trader obvious they do.

The question is not, "Do trends exist?" Of course they do, in your imagination when looking backward.

The real issue is whether or not past price action determines future price action. That would be a "trend" before the fact, the only sort you can make money on.

Posted by Jane Doe on 03-12-05 10:40 PM:

[QUOTE]Quote from NickelScalper:

The question is not, "Do trends exist?" Of course they do, in your imagination when looking backward.

The real issue is whether or not past price action determines future price action. That would be a trend before the fact, the only sort you can make money on. [/QUOTE

Past price does influence future price action (duh). Imagine a completely random price action.. would you rely upon it? Would you risk your money on it? Of course not, traders/investors rely on a small but certain non-randomness to the markets. This teeny tiny "predictability" underlies all markets without which would completely collapse. Withot any structure the entire system collapses. Why would anyone trade a completely random system.. Would you trade a coin flip?? Of course not.. duh

Posted by hank rollins on 03-12-05 10:45 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from OldTrader:

Evidently you believe that trends do in fact exist....but only in hindsight. This is an immense improvement to the nononsense view that trends don't exist, eventhough even a cursory view of a price chart on virtually any time interval reveals an obvious trend of one kind or another.

Once a trend has started, we cannot know when it will end...

OldTrader

if one doesn't know when a trend will end, what good is a trend before you enter the trade?

ever try looking at a chart from randomly generated prices within the ATR of an actual stock? there are obvious past trends apparent in this quasi-random data--but they are untradeable.

once again--if you flip a coin ten times, it comes up 10 times heads, are you in a heads trend?

regards.

__________________
open up the borders to the river running green, cause i've got tranches full of dollars to trade for gasoline.......

Posted by hank rollins on 03-12-05 10:50 PM:

Quote from Jane Doe:

[QUOTE]Quote from NickelScalper:

The question is not, "Do trends exist?" Of course they do, in your imagination when looking backward.

The real issue is whether or not past price action determines future price action. That would be a trend before the fact, the only sort you can make money on. [/QUOTE

Past price does influence future price action (duh). Imagine a completely random price action.. would you rely upon it? Would you risk your money on it? Of course not, traders/investors rely on a small but certain non-randomness to the markets. This teeny tiny "predictability" underlies all markets without which would completely collapse. Withot any structure the entire system collapses. Why would anyone trade a completely random system.. Would you trade a coin flip?? Of course not.. duh

no, no, no, no , jane. you are totally and completely confused.

the market relies on traders faulty perception of predictibility, not the other way around.

the market is not random, by the classical definition of randomness, but it is random within a set framework--- generally refered to as the ATR in TA speak.

__________________
open up the borders to the river running green, cause i've got tranches full of dollars to trade for gasoline.......

Posted by Jane Doe on 03-12-05 10:51 PM:

Hank, what do you do for aliving? (Obviously, you don' trade)

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-12-05 10:52 PM:

Quote from Jane Doe:

Past price does influence future price action (duh). Imagine a completely random price action.. would you rely upon it? Would you risk your money on it? Of course not, traders/investors rely on a small but certain non-randomness to the markets. This teeny tiny "predictability" underlies all markets without which would completely collapse. Withot any structure the entire system collapses. Why would anyone trade a completely random system.. Would you trade a coin flip?? Of course not.. duh

The logic of your statement is faulty.

To say that future price action is not determined by past price action does not mean that future price action is caused by nothing at all and is random.

Posted by hank rollins on 03-12-05 10:53 PM:

Quote from Jane Doe:

Hank, what do you do for aliving? (Obviously, you don' trade)

wrong. i trade and write for a living. what do you do, and who are you ??

hank

Posted by Jane Doe on 03-12-05 11:02 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

The logic of your statement is faulty.

To say that future price action is not determined by past price action does not mean that future price action is caused by nothing at all and is random.

Look try to understand this: Traders NEED structure to place trades. It is fundamental to the nature of man to CONSTRUCT patterns. If no patterns exist intially, traders (man) will construct them and the patterns will emerge as a "self-fullfilling prophecy" (What do you "guys" do for a living. don't tell me trading

that';s scary ) I reiterate: YOU could NOT place a trade without a certain expectation of fullfillment!

Posted by nononsense on 03-12-05 11:03 PM:

Quote from hank rollins:

the market relies on traders faulty perception of predictibility, not the other way around.

'The market' doesn't rely on anything. It's simply the market, that's all.

If you hold the faulty perception to the contrary, you'll get fleeced by some with a clearer perception.

Posted by Jane Doe on 03-12-05 11:04 PM:

Quote from hank rollins:

wrong. i trade and write for a living. what do you do, and who are you ??

hank

You must write very well

Posted by Jane Doe on 03-12-05 11:08 PM:

Quote from Jane Doe:

Look try to understand this: Traders NEED structure to place trades. It is fundamental to the nature of man to CONSTRUCT patterns. If now patterns exist intially, traders 9man) will construct them and the patterns will emerge as a "self-fullfilling prophecy" (What do you "guys" do for a living. don't tell me trading that';s scary ) I reiterate: YOU could NOT place a trade without a certain expectation of fullfillment!

may I add that this is a small edge.. of course 'they" have to keep you "honest" as my daddy always says.. IOW, they won't make it easy on you but there is most decidedly a particular Structure to it all

Posted by nononsense on 03-12-05 11:10 PM:

Quote from Jane Doe:

[...]I reiterate: YOU could NOT place a trade without a certain expectation of fullfillment!

Right!
Don't be afraid to call this 'PREDICTING'.

Posted by Jane Doe on 03-12-05 11:16 PM:

Quote from nononsense:

Right!
Don't be afraid to call this 'PREDICTING'.

It is prediction, you are right. It's a fine balance b/w subtle structure/patterns and money management.. very difficult to discern and even more difficult to manage in real-time. But the rewards are great to those who can "do"!

Posted by hank rollins on 03-12-05 11:17 PM:

Quote from Jane Doe:

You must write very well

thank you.

a gambler EXPECTS to win on every bet, also.

once again---- if you flip a coin 10 times,and it comes up 10 times heads, are you in a heads trend?

OR

take my earlier random numbers within the ATR of a stock example.

you can pretend all you wish that you have some special ability to predict future price, but you don't.

Posted by hank rollins on 03-12-05 11:23 PM:

Quote from Jane Doe:

It is prediction, you are right. It's a fine balance b/w subtle structure/patterns and money management.. very difficult to discern and even more difficult to manage in real-time. But the rewards are great to those who can "do"!

ok, jane, i'll play with you. you are somewhat intriguing.

demonstrate to me that you have a scalable edge using your ability to locate and exploit these "subtle structure/ patterns" found in price.

if you can do the above, i'll happily arrange for you to have more capital than you can imagine.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 11:26 PM:

Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from hank rollins:

ah, maybe cause there's no such thing as trend.
trend only exists in hindsight.
one day you will learn.
han

I learned and proved what did exist, does exit and will exist till it changes.

Posted by Jane Doe on 03-12-05 11:30 PM:

Quote from hank rollins:

ok, jane, i'll play with you. you are somewhat intriguing.

demonstrate to me that you have a scalable edge using your ability to locate and exploit these "subtle structure/ patterns" found in price.

if you can do the above, i'll happily arrange for you to have more capital than you can imagine.

I have a pretty good imagination are you serious (you wouldn't kid a kidder

Don't get me wrong I CAN do what you ask but I wasn't born yesterday either

Give me a ballpark figure, I want to know if this is legit (no offense)

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 11:31 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

In that case, give me an example of a publicly traded instrument whose price rises and falls but always returns to a constant middle value. And what is that value?

Tides are in a more confined environment than any Markets price variance but the price of ANY MAarket or stock still moves from Support to Resistance and back again perpetually and without an ending point continuously breaching & failing at each top and bottom sequentially.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 11:35 PM:

Quote from hank rollins:

dr.logic and i have gone round and round on this issue.

although obviously quite intelligent, he is suffering from a common delusion affecting the majority of market participants.

regards,

hank

If what I am afflicted with is delusions then my banker is as well.

Posted by BSAM on 03-12-05 11:38 PM:

Quote from Jane Doe:

You must write very well

LMAO!!!

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 11:43 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from BA_Trader:

But isn't the past just yesterday's future?

Don't go there BA. If it wasn't taught in high school or illustrated in large print in a book written by someone who does't trade . . . it isn't real.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-12-05 11:52 PM:

Quote from Jane Doe:

You must write very well

I'm truly impressed Jane. A woman with a mind that's not scared to use it.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-13-05 12:15 AM:

Quote from Jane Doe:

Look try to understand this: Traders NEED structure to place trades. It is fundamental to the nature of man to CONSTRUCT patterns. If no patterns exist intially, traders (man) will construct them and the patterns will emerge as a "self-fullfilling prophecy" (What do you "guys" do for a living. don't tell me trading that';s scary ) I reiterate: YOU could NOT place a trade without a certain expectation of fullfillment!

So?

None of the above does anything to prove that future price is determined by past price action.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 12:15 AM:

Quote from hank rollins:

thank you.
a gambler EXPECTS to win on every bet, also.

once again---- if you flip a coin 10 times,and it comes up 10 times heads, are you in a heads trend?

OR

take my earlier random numbers within the ATR of a stock example.

you can pretend all you wish that you have some special ability to predict future price, but you don't.

Hank, you make ET such an interesting place.
Have you ever done any research on your own in regards to the Physics of price movement? I'd really be interested to know what your background is in and where your expertise lies. I would love to respect your opinions . . . give me a reason to.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 12:20 AM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

So?

None of the above does anything to prove that future price is determined by past price action.

Even if proof was offered it would be scoffed at. Why perpetuate an argument with closed minded people. Those of us that trade the trend evey day and profit from it every day do not need to prove it to anyone.

Posted by 1st_samurai on 03-13-05 12:22 AM:

Quote from balda:

It is all in your mind. You are trying to pick tops and bottoms.
It can be hazardous to your wealth.

Picking tops/bottoms is not necessarily antithetic to trend trading.
For eg., former market wizard Gary Bielfeldt picked the low in the Bonds in 1984 and held the trade for 2 years!!

__________________
"Yeah Baby"

--Austin Powers

Posted by OldTrader on 03-13-05 12:22 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from hank rollins:

if one doesn't know when a trend will end, what good is a trend before you enter the trade?

ever try looking at a chart from randomly generated prices within the ATR of an actual stock? there are obvious past trends apparent in this quasi-random data--but they are untradeable.

once again--if you flip a coin ten times, it comes up 10 times heads, are you in a heads trend?

regards.

What makes you think that a series of coin flips has anything to do with stock price movement? Perhaps the fact that you believe this simply illustrates your lack of ability with stocks, and perhaps indicates that you should stick to flipping coins.

In terms of "when a trend will end", I think you missed my point. I believe that I can identify certain conditions that indicate the beginnings and ends of trends, not with 100% certainty, but with "enough" certainty, and at a time when my risk to make a trade is relatively speaking small relative to the reward. But from YOUR standpoint, with your belief system where you believe nothing is more certain than a coin flip, the point I was making is that the end of a trend is no more certain than the beginning of a trend. What we know is that a trade can be wrong once...and that is at the end of the trend. Any other time your trade will be right as long as you have acted in the direction of the trend.

Here's an example: The market turned up in March 2003. In "hindsight" that is clear. Now, I don't know when you might have been able to say "yes, there is a trend, and it is up"....but certainly it should have been let's say within a few months or so from the bottom. And the point is that had you made a long trade then, it clearly would have been successful, a new high having been achieved just last week, 2 years later.

Again, in a trend the most unlikely thing that can happen at any point along the trend is that it will end. That isn't to say that it won't end, just that it's less likely than to continue.

And in your case, you don't believe you have any ability to determine the end of a trend, so there is no point to arguing anything other than it's continuance.

OldTrader

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-13-05 12:30 AM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Even if proof was offered it would be scoffed at. Why perpetuate an argument with closed minded people. Those of us that trade the trend evey day and profit from it every day do not need to prove it to anyone.

That's a weak reply.

Posted by easyrider on 03-13-05 12:48 AM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Hank, you make ET such an interesting place.
Have you ever done any research on your own in regards to the Physics of price movement? I'd really be interested to know what your background is in and where your expertise lies. I would love to respect your opinions . . . give me a reason to.

This is Hank's place:http://www.realworldtrading.com/

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 12:56 AM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

That's a weak reply.

It's true, I've offered proof repeatedly on ET but it's more fun to aggitate than to prove it to yourselves. Search the threads, all the proof is there for anyone to see.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 01:22 AM:

Quote from easyrider:

This is Hank's place:http://www.realworldtrading.com/

Easy, you have to be kidding right.
It's a smorgasbord of goo. Not an original thought on the site. Elliott Wave . . . Please. How to start a war? Give 4 separate Elliott wave people in the same room guns and ask them what wave they are on. LOL

The book store is a nice touch . . . let's run out and buy a book to learn to trade. Surely those authors make a bulk of their money trading . . . right? The site does look nice though. I guess someone has to perpetuate all those dried up methods that people used before technology and when the Markets had a 50 point range per year. Hank truly has found his literary calling.

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-13-05 01:38 AM:

If anyone is thinking of buying a book thay should go for classics,The ones that run 1st 2nd 3rd ect , editions ,And not go for most of the shit that is being pucked out today......

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-13-05 02:55 AM:

Quote from hank rollins:

once again---- if you flip a coin 10 times,and it comes up 10 times heads, are you in a heads trend?

Have a cigar.

Posted by nicholaf on 03-13-05 02:57 AM:

Your arguments lead me to assume that you are modelling prices as a stochastic processes. But then the question is... is the random walk really random?

Posted by nkhoi on 03-13-05 03:04 AM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Easy, you have to be kidding right.
It's a smorgasbord of goo. ...

prof. how is this "Due to problems with "Theft of Information" and harassment this Website is CLOSED" better than that?

Posted by nzbryant on 03-13-05 05:53 AM:

Random trends

Wow - the fastest growing thread ever on ET (except perhaps the marriage one).

Jane - there doesnt have to be a structure for a positive expectation. I have developed two systems on completely random numbers that have significant profits (with 99.9% t-test significance over thousands of simulations. Rules on where and when you enter and exit on a random number system can make you money (entries random or based on price movement, exits based on price movement and/or where you enter).

This sounds crazy - but it is true - Ive done it. Dont knock it until youve spent a week or so on Excel trying to do it (will need to write a macro for the simulations).

Posted by jrkob on 03-13-05 06:18 AM:

what random number generator are you using ?

Posted by PitchBlack on 03-13-05 08:20 AM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

So?

None of the above does anything to prove that future price is determined by past price action.

Would you agree that you can see a trend if i show postings and charts that were made BEFORE ( sometimes days, sometimes even months) the prediction happened?
I said several times in advance which way we were going and approx how long it could go that way. I must admit that i added mostly the word PROBABLY, that is because you can never be sure and i don't want people to jump in trades because of my opinion.
You don't need to know the start nor the finish of the trend; just the direction is enough to make money. If you know the trend for the next 24 hours, you know enough.

Summary of the postings i made and they can still be verified because they still are on the internet:

May, 25 2003: the bottom of march was THE BOTTOM.

June, 28 2003: from hereon higher and through the 1000 level.

August,20 2003:we will test the high (1015) again within the following days.

December,18 2004: we will at least have to wait until end of january 2005 before we can go short. A rough estimation even gives end of february 2005, the highs will be tested again.

I made dozens of postings like these. For me the discussion ends here. Whether there is a trend are not and whether you can consistently make money or not doesn't matter any more.
I know what i earn and that's enough. Why should i care about what others believe? My financial situation will not change by trying to change someonelses opinion.

If i ask my broker to transfer 10 000 $ to me because i want to spent it, he does the transfer.
So is this reality or imagination? I don't know, but when i run through my garage and hurt myself by bumping into my car, i feel that the car that was bought with that money was for real. I can even drive in it and untill now i never woke up in my bed when i was driving it.

Posted by nononsense on 03-13-05 08:52 AM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

So?

None of the above does anything to prove that future price is determined by past price action.

Nobody said so.
Only by structuring (Jane's term) your knowledge about 'past price action' (not limited to) are you able to make a future profit out of today's transaction, this with nonzero probability. Your (cunning) sequence of such transactions will:
(1) lead to a positive account balance over a given period with nonzero probability;
(2) have a probability of ruin tolerable for the practitioner.

If you are dabbling in the market not subject to the above discipline you are possibly some kind of a 'Trend' gazer and most certainly a gambler.

PS: It is futile to talk about 'trying out a little edge' if you are not going to rigorously probe the above with properly designed experiments.

nononsense

Posted by nononsense on 03-13-05 09:09 AM:

Re: Random trends

Quote from nzbryant:

Wow - the fastest growing thread ever on ET (except perhaps the marriage one).

Jane - there doesn't have to be a structure for a positive expectation. I have developed two systems on completely random numbers that have significant profits (with 99.9% t-test significance over thousands of simulations. Rules on where and when you enter and exit on a random number system can make you money (entries random or based on price movement, exits based on price movement and/or where you enter).

This sounds crazy - but it is true - Ive done it. Dont knock it until youve spent a week or so on Excel trying to do it (will need to write a macro for the simulations).

It is indeed crazy or possibly not crazy at all. In fact jrkob asked you the right question.

Your story is undecidable as you simply don't provide the information necessary to say anything at all about this.

Your 'random number generator' generates a stochastic process. What are its properties?

For example, if you start with a Wiener process and pass it through say a linear filter, its output is still random. (Call this giving it some structure if it makes you happy - some call it colored noise). A well known body of knowledge exists enabling one to make 'valid' predictions about the future output of such a process. This is the essence of simple Wiener Filter theory.

Let me hasten to add that the above example is not easily transposed to market environments. However, you could easily set up a computer experiment mimicking closely these theoretical results.

nononsense

PS: about fast growing ET threads: no threat yet for Chit-Chat

Posted by jrkob on 03-13-05 09:59 AM:

I got caught in the past with these - not so- random numbers generated by not only Excel, but other programs too. There seem to be a number of limitations that makes generating truely random numbers on Windows not as easy as typing "=Rand()" on Excel.

Using that kind of pseudo random numbers, it would be very easy to come to the conclusion that a strategy selling deep out of the money options is systematically winning. While in reality, it isn't.

Demonstration and elements of answers provided by MrSubliminal here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&threadid=35622

Posted by easyrider on 03-13-05 11:25 AM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

[B]Easy, you have to be kidding right.
B]

The site is a sideline. I believe he runs a hedge fund for a living.

p.s. I took a look at your web site and ran across your challenge:

" Prove, to me, that Market Price/Momentum Does Not move Either to Or Through the Last Prime or Minor Support or Resistance Level from the Previous Sequential Support or Resistance Level,"

Im going to have to chew on that one for awhile. Any chance you could define prime and sequential?

Posted by nononsense on 03-13-05 01:03 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

The site is a sideline. I believe he runs a hedge fund for a living.

p.s. I took a look at your web site and ran across your challenge:

" Prove, to me, that Market Price/Momentum Does Not move Either to Or Through the Last Prime or Minor Support or Resistance Level from the Previous Sequential Support or Resistance Level,"

Im going to have to chew on that one for awhile. Any chance you could define prime and sequential?

easyrider,

You must have missed the fine point in this. It's the juxtaposition of two central thoughts:

Quotes from ProfLogic:

Market prices mirror this action due to being born out of the same type of random chaotic environment as anything else effected by the Laws of Physics.

__________________
The Market is NOT Chaos and Randomness . . .

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 01:30 PM:

Quote from nkhoi:

prof. how is this "Due to problems with "Theft of Information" and harassment this Website is CLOSED" better than that?

Nice "out of context" snatch and grab. I imagine you like it when people steal from you. What was your address again?

Posted by Equalizer on 03-13-05 01:33 PM:

Here's a clue,

instead of bagging each other and adding no value to ET by turning this in to a pissing contest, why don't you two dudes settle this once and for all.

Live calls on a financial instrument of choice - do this for a week. Whilst not totally conclusive it should give all an idea of who can and who can't trade their way out of a paper bag.

I'm sure someone could organise the software to log the live calls, and given the popularity of the thread, I'm sure many here would be more than curious to see how some of the rather opinionated participants - who dispense advice with abandon - would fare under realistic market conditions.

I'd like to see that, yeah yeah...

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 01:38 PM:

Re: Re: Random trends

Quote from nononsense:

It is indeed crazy or possibly not crazy at all. In fact jrkob asked you the right question.

Your story is undecidable as you simply don't provide the information necessary to say anything at all about this.

Your 'random number generator' generates a stochastic process. What are its properties?

For example, if you start with a Wiener process and pass it through say a linear filter, its output is still random. (Call this giving it some structure if it makes you happy - some call it colored noise). A well known body of knowledge exists enabling one to make 'valid' predictions about the future output of such a process. This is the essence of simple Wiener Filter theory.

Let me hasten to add that the above example is not easily transposed to market environments. However, you could easily set up a computer experiment mimicking closely these theoretical results.

nononsense

PS: about fast growing ET threads: no threat yet for Chit-Chat

NOnonSENSE,

I detailed mine out for you on page 24 of this thread and you still haven't responded. Was it too complicated for you to understand or too simple to fathom? Consistency lost again to harrass another.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 01:47 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

The site is a sideline. I believe he runs a hedge fund for a living.

p.s. I took a look at your web site and ran across your challenge:

" Prove, to me, that Market Price/Momentum Does Not move Either to Or Through the Last Prime or Minor Support or Resistance Level from the Previous Sequential Support or Resistance Level,"

Im going to have to chew on that one for awhile. Any chance you could define prime and sequential?

Prime - Extreme
Minor - In-between Extremes
Sequential - Back-to-Back (Continuous)

Good luck, that has been up there since 1998. Oh, I do not calculate Support or Resistance either. They are fixed price tops & bottoms based on price oscillations.
I'll give you something else as well.
There are only "4" possible outcomes to price challenging any oscillation resistance level or any oscillation Support level. This one drives people nuts.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 01:54 PM:

Quote from nononsense:

easyrider,

You must have missed the fine point in this. It's the juxtaposition of two central thoughts:

NOnonSENSE

I am going to dub you . . . the KING of taking statements out of context.

Do you EVER reference a complete statement when making a comment or would that dictate having to complete a thought on your part. You must be a writer as well that has never had someone check your sources.

Posted by nononsense on 03-13-05 01:58 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

NOnonSENSE

I am going to dub you . . . the KING of taking statements out of context.

Do you EVER reference a complete statement when making a comment or would that dictate having to complete a thought on your part. You must be a writer as well that has never had someone check your sources.

Beg you pardon.
Nothing out of context.
I rigorously copied both your statements following eachother right in sequence.

Posted by masonbarge on 03-13-05 02:03 PM:

Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from Flashboy:

Every trend day or period like the last 3 days I always have trouble trading with the trend.

I'm always looking for that turning point so I can hop on for the big score..

I most likely need to work on my plan for trading with the trend.. and force myself to do it until I become more comfortable..

Anyone else have this problem?

You sound like you don't know what "trading with the trend" means, if you are looking for a turning point.

__________________
"I can't think of any scenario more enjoyable than making 55,000 people from New York shut up."

- Curt Schilling

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 02:08 PM:

Quote from nononsense:

Beg you pardon.
Nothing out of context.
I rigorously copied both your statements following eachother right in sequence.

1. Quotes from ProfLogic:

Market prices mirror this action due to being born out of the same type of random chaotic environment as anything else effected by the Laws of Physics.

__________________
The Market is NOT Chaos and Randomness . . .

2. Quotes from ProfLogic:

Market prices mirror this action due to being born out of the same type of random chaotic environment as anything else effected by the Laws of Physics.

__________________
The Market is NOT Chaos and Randomness . . . unless you trade using variable and imperfect Methodologies. Search for what is Perfectly Consistent in the Market . . . and then Trade it, Trusting only Yourself and what you See. . . . Wm Schamp (Me)

NOnonSENSE,

Yup, the first one looks just like the second one. It's absolutely no wonder you can't see trends in realtime. Are you going to respond to my statement on page 24?

Posted by nononsense on 03-13-05 02:14 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

[...] It's absolutely no wonder you can't see trends in realtime. [...]

nononsense loves to spot the truly nutty stuff.

Posted by Equalizer on 03-13-05 02:17 PM:

Can't we all just get along?

Posted by John Merchant on 03-13-05 03:38 PM:

Oh, Jack! You're back! Life here has been so dull without you! I see that you have invented some new jargon. Please do enlighten us. And give my regards to Wolfie.

Posted by hank rollins on 03-13-05 03:40 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Hank, you make ET such an interesting place.
Have you ever done any research on your own in regards to the Physics of price movement? I'd really be interested to know what your background is in and where your expertise lies. I would love to respect your opinions . . . give me a reason to.

"physics of price movement" ? please... give me a break.

i don't care if you respect me or not, dr.

it's the leading of newbies down the primrose path of delusions that i challenge. nothing personal.

several months, or more, can't remember--i invited you to discuss your methods before a group in NYC--you declined.... remember ?

if you system works for you, that is cool.... i don't have an argument with that...... it's obviously not scaleable, or repeatable--just like a really good poker player--somethings just cant be taught.

i am giving you the benefit of the doubt despite your nasty words about my project..

Posted by hank rollins on 03-13-05 03:46 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from OldTrader:

What makes you think that a series of coin flips has anything to do with stock price movement? Perhaps the fact that you believe this simply illustrates your lack of ability with stocks, and perhaps indicates that you should stick to flipping coins.

In terms of "when a trend will end", I think you missed my point. I believe that I can identify certain conditions that indicate the beginnings and ends of trends, not with 100% certainty, but with "enough" certainty, and at a time when my risk to make a trade is relatively speaking small relative to the reward. But from YOUR standpoint, with your belief system where you believe nothing is more certain than a coin flip, the point I was making is that the end of a trend is no more certain than the beginning of a trend. What we know is that a trade can be wrong once...and that is at the end of the trend. Any other time your trade will be right as long as you have acted in the direction of the trend.

Here's an example: The market turned up in March 2003. In "hindsight" that is clear. Now, I don't know when you might have been able to say "yes, there is a trend, and it is up"....but certainly it should have been let's say within a few months or so from the bottom. And the point is that had you made a long trade then, it clearly would have been successful, a new high having been achieved just last week, 2 years later.

Again, in a trend the most unlikely thing that can happen at any point along the trend is that it will end. That isn't to say that it won't end, just that it's less likely than to continue.

And in your case, you don't believe you have any ability to determine the end of a trend, so there is no point to arguing anything other than it's continuance.

OldTrader

interesting , old trader. thank you for the reply.

i heard once that every trade is a winner if you scale into to, and hold it long enough, and of course dont run out of capital.

if something isn't quantifiable, testable, and scaleable---i have no use for it. mathematically, there is no edge to "trend trading" in the traditional sense.

__________________
open up the borders to the river running green, cause i've got tranches full of dollars to trade for gasoline.......

Posted by hank rollins on 03-13-05 03:48 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

Have a cigar.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 03:58 PM:

Quote from hank rollins:

"physics of price movement" ? please... give me a break.

i don't care if you respect me or not, dr.

it's the leading of newbies down the primrose path of delusions that i challenge. nothing personal.

several months, or more, can't remember--i invited you to discuss your methods before a group in NYC--you declined.... remember ?

if you system works for you, that is cool.... i don't have an argument with that...... it's obviously not scaleable, or repeatable--just like a really good poker player--somethings just cant be taught.

You invited me to discuss my theorys to a group of closed minded greedy corporate talking heads, to which I declined. If it would have been to open minded academics, I would have been there in a heart-beat. You still promote the tired methods of a Market locked in tight ranges of the pre-90's and are unable to view any new technology or ideas from a standpoint of rational thought.
Your response speaks volumes. Be sure not to bump your toes at night on your way to bed by candlelight.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-13-05 05:01 PM:

Re: Random trends

Quote from nzbryant:

Jane - there doesnt have to be a structure for a positive expectation. I have developed two systems on completely random numbers that have significant profits (with 99.9% t-test significance over thousands of simulations. Rules on where and when you enter and exit on a random number system can make you money (entries random or based on price movement, exits based on price movement and/or where you enter).

A system that could make a profit with random increments would do extremely well in the real world.

Are you a billionaire yet?

Posted by OldTrader on 03-13-05 05:13 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from hank rollins:

interesting , old trader. thank you for the reply.

i heard once that every trade is a winner if you scale into to, and hold it long enough, and of course dont run out of capital.

if something isn't quantifiable, testable, and scaleable---i have no use for it. mathematically, there is no edge to "trend trading" in the traditional sense.

Let's go a step further. I submit that no one can trade the market without "trend trading".

Here's what I mean by that: Let's say that you go long. Makes no difference to me how you made the decision to go long....in your case, let's say you flipped a coin. Now the price begins to move in your direction. It's clear that you must hold the position long enough to make a profit....in other words, you must "hope" that it "trends" to your profit point.

Now, you may not have made your decision based on some of the more traditional methods of "trend trading"ie moving averages, moving above a prior high (or low), etc but nonetheless you are still dependent upon the markets ability to trend to make your profit.

All of us when it comes right down to it are nothing more than trend trades. Perhaps I get into a position in some manner determined in my mind by deciding that a market has "stopped" going down, has begun to "turn" and is now "heading" up. You say this has no more chance than a coin flip, which is how you decide. But in the end it makes no difference how we decided (especially if your contention is really true that the market is never any more than a coin flip).....we must still sit with our position long enough to realize a profit, which depends on the markets ability to trend.

I note by the way that you did not answer my question: How do you know that stock price movement is comparable to a coin flip?

OldTrader

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-13-05 05:31 PM:

Quote from OldTrader:

Here's what I mean by that: Let's say that you go long. Makes no difference to me how you made the decision to go long....in your case, let's say you flipped a coin. Now the price begins to move in your direction. It's clear that you must hold the position long enough to make a profit....in other words, you must "hope" that it "trends" to your profit point.

What you're getting at is valid in general but does not apply to what price trend traders think they see on the chart.

Just because price has drawn itself with a certain slope over a previous timeframe doesn't mean it has done so due to a tendency that will continue into the tradable future.

Posted by PitchBlack on 03-13-05 05:36 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from OldTrader:

I note by the way that you did not answer my question: How do you know that stock price movement is comparable to a coin flip?

OldTrader

That's the problem with most people who went to university. The think that they know everything and think in an academical way. They talk about the most complicated mathematical calculations and break their head thinking about random figures etc etc.....

But they don't even realize that flipping a coin is not at all the same as the price evolution of a stock. The market is driven by human mass behavior, while flipping a coin cannot be influenced at all.

If you flip a coin till eternity each side of the coin will come up approx 50% of the time. But in trading it is different.
What would you say if someone said:
i never had a loosing week for the last 5 years and i have more than 85% of profitable trades.
You will probably say that the statement was a lie.

So my question to the academical experts in trading: what return do you need to proof that stocks don't move at random? How many trades have to be profitable?

I have probably less than 20% of the intelligence of most people here. How is it then possible that i make good profits?

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 05:36 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from OldTrader:

Let's go a step further. I submit that no one can trade the market without "trend trading".

Here's what I mean by that: Let's say that you go long. Makes no difference to me how you made the decision to go long....in your case, let's say you flipped a coin. Now the price begins to move in your direction. It's clear that you must hold the position long enough to make a profit....in other words, you must "hope" that it "trends" to your profit point.

Now, you may not have made your decision based on some of the more traditional methods of "trend trading"ie moving averages, moving above a prior high (or low), etc but nonetheless you are still dependent upon the markets ability to trend to make your profit.

All of us when it comes right down to it are nothing more than trend trades. Perhaps I get into a position in some manner determined in my mind by deciding that a market has "stopped" going down, has begun to "turn" and is now "heading" up. You say this has no more chance than a coin flip, which is how you decide. But in the end it makes no difference how we decided (especially if your contention is really true that the market is never any more than a coin flip).....we must still sit with our position long enough to realize a profit, which depends on the markets ability to trend.

I note by the way that you did not answer my question: How do you know that stock price movement is comparable to a coin flip?

OldTrader

Well stated!

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 05:38 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

What you're getting at is valid in general but does not apply to the specifics of the price trend traders think they see on the chart.

Just because price has drawn itself with a certain slope over a previous timeframe doesn't mean that it has done so due to a tendency that will continue into the tradable future.

Trends have nothing to do with slope. Slope is a by-product of the trend and has nothing to do with the continuation of the trend.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-13-05 05:46 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Trends have nothing to do with slope.

What is your definition of trend that does not include quantity of up or down direction over time?

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 05:59 PM:

Trend

Based on traditional methods, that is methods commonly used before 1996, trends were less obvious and therefore dismissed as aberrations and inconsequential. But since 1996 the trend ranges that play out in the market; yearly, monthly, weekly, daily and on an intraday basis have become more obvious and readable making them easier to study and define.

Prior to 1996 few individuals had access to the amount of data necessary to come to any conclusions in regard to the systematic movement of price in any Market. This has led to the creation of research I will call the "The Physics of Electronic Market Price Movement". A Rules based system of visually defining a trend on any chart based in an electronic environment where a momentum indicator is used to confirm oscillation tops and bottoms.

A defined trend exists. Defined consolidation exists. A defined trend exists until it fails (failure is specifically defined). A defined trend migrates into consolidation. Defined consolidation migrates into the continuation of the previous defined trend or a new defined trend. A defined trend migrates into a new trend. PERIOD!

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 06:02 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

What is your definition of trend that does not include quantity of up or down direction over time?

I should have said that Slopes do not define trends they are simply a by-product of them.

Posted by OddTrader on 03-13-05 06:04 PM:

Would it be possible that different traders could, for some individual reasons, use various names such as trends/ levels/ points/ heights/ supports/ waves/ etc. to call/ refer to the same/ similar sort of particular price movements/ patterns?

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-13-05 06:18 PM:

Re: Trend

Quote from ProfLogic:

A defined trend exists until it fails...

Sufficient data to predict the failure point of a "trend" is not contained in the chart of the "trend."

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 06:28 PM:

Re: Re: Trend

Quote from NickelScalper:

Sufficient data to predict the failure point of a "trend" is not contained in the chart of the "trend."

One needs not to predict the price point at which failure occurs, one need only to define the specific action needed to confirm that failure IS occuring at either a minor or extreme level.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-13-05 06:39 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Trend

Quote from ProfLogic:

One needs not to predict the price point at which failure occurs, one need only to define the specific action needed to confirm that failure IS occuring at either a minor or extreme level.

Sufficient data to predict the extent of the reversal of a "trend" is not contained in the chart of the "trend" approaching failure point.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-13-05 06:39 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Trends have nothing to do with slope. Slope is a by-product of the trend and has nothing to do with the continuation of the trend.

Excuse me... Prof, from my understanding, the slope is the most fundamental, derivational aspect of any "trend"(other than the individual dimensions themselves of course:-).

With respect, I humbly suggest you dig out your text books.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-13-05 06:48 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

I should have said that Slopes do not define trends they are simply a by-product of them.

I'm commenting as I go along here on prior posts.

Prof, I've have respect for your generally apparent, analytical approach to trading...

But I believe this is totally erroneous and backwards.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-13-05 06:59 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Trend

Quote from ProfLogic:

One needs not to predict the price point at which failure occurs, one need only to define the specific action needed to confirm that failure IS occurring at either a minor or extreme level.

I really do hate the word prediction in reference to trading...

But there is also what I will call controlled prediction, where the confidence and error of probability is calculated and utilized as a tool (bands).

As a tool, projection (LR&bands aka: trend channel) can be used to scope out the possibilities, where by an anticipation of events can then be considered.

Posted by easyrider on 03-13-05 07:08 PM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

Excuse me... Prof, from my understanding, the slope is the most fundamental, derivational aspect of any "trend"(other than the individual dimensions themselves of course:-).

With respect, I humbly suggest you dig out your text books.

I hadnt really thought too much about it before but a trend does not neccessarily have to have a slope if you take the standard definition i.e: 1 a : to extend in a general direction : follow a general course : ; so a market moving sideways could also be said to be trending. However if you use the Dow definiton of higher highs and higher lows then slope would seem to be a prerequisite.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 07:09 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Trend

Quote from NickelScalper:

Sufficient data to predict the extent of the reversal of a "trend" is not contained in the chart of the "trend" approaching failure point.

This statement is 100% incorrect if you have strictly defined the parameters of reading the trend of that particular chart.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-13-05 07:12 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

I hadnt really thought too much about it before but a trend does not neccessarily have to have a slope if you take the standard definition i.e: 1 a : to extend in a general direction : follow a general course : ; so a market moving sideways could also be said to be trending.

A curve is the slope of a slope. That's more slope.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 07:15 PM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

I'm commenting as I go along here on prior posts.

Prof, I've have respect for your generally apparent, analytical approach to trading...

But I believe this is totally erroneous and backwards.

Please excuse the distractions. I'm watching KY & FL do battle on the hardwood. lol
When I think of Slope I think of a degree of assent or decline and that has nothing to do with determining when a trend will end.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 07:16 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Trend

Quote from ktmexc20:

I really do hate the word prediction in reference to trading...

But there is also what I will call controlled prediction, where the confidence and error of probability is calculated and utilized as a tool, but never solely relied upon.

As a tool, projection (LR&bands aka: trend channel) can be used to scope out the possibilities, where by an anticipation of events can then be considered.

True, but you can define it even closer.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-13-05 07:19 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Trend

Quote from ProfLogic:

True, but you can define it even closer.

"it". Which are you referring to?

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-13-05 07:24 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Please excuse the distractions. I'm watching KY & FL do battle on the hardwood. lol
When I think of Slope I think of a degree of assent or decline and that has nothing to do with determining when a trend will end.

I have to disagree again. The slope aka: dD/dT... has everything to do with recognizing beginnings, durations, and ends. I don't believe there is more refined measurement to determining this!

Posted by jsp326 on 03-13-05 07:29 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Trend

Quote from NickelScalper:

Sufficient data to predict the extent of the reversal of a "trend" is not contained in the chart of the "trend" approaching failure point.

That's quite an assertion. Can you prove this

a) Empirically, i.e., show you've tested every combination of charts/chart reading techniques/indicators (or a sufficiently large sample) and found that none can tell you the trend failure point?

b) Deductively, i.e., lead us through a series of verifiably true statements that reaches this conclusion?

If not, you simply have an assertion/opinion, which you're entitled to, of course.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 07:38 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Trend

Quote from ktmexc20:

"it". Which are you referring to?

Trend.
"As a tool, projection (LR&bands aka: trend channel) can be used to scope out the possibilities, where by an anticipation of events can then be considered."

I agree but defining specific actions that need to take place before a change in trend can take place, both at a Minor and at extreme oscillations, will improve the expectation of the current trend completing.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-13-05 07:45 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Trend.
"As a tool, projection (LR&bands aka: trend channel) can be used to scope out the possibilities, where by an anticipation of events can then be considered."

I agree but defining specific actions that need to take place before a change in trend can take place, both at a Minor and at extreme oscillations, will improve the expectation of the current trend completing.

See your losing me here. In sense, from my perspective your contridicting yourself, and it's got me riddled. I'll refer to what I said earlier...

Quote from ktmexc20:

I have to disagree again. The slope aka: dD/dT... has everything to do with recognizing beginnings, durations, and ends. I don't believe there is more refined measurement to determining this!

Edit: Also let me add that I personally don't use "price" as a variable, to trade with. But the vars that drive "price"

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-13-05 07:50 PM:

Quote from jsp326:

That's quite an assertion. Can you prove this

a) Empirically, i.e., show you've tested every combination of charts/chart reading techniques/indicators (or a sufficiently large sample) and found that none can tell you the trend failure point?

b) Deductively, i.e., lead us through a series of verifiably true statements that reaches this conclusion?

If not, you simply have an assertion/opinion, which you're entitled to, of course.

If a minimum difference between present and approaching price could be calculated using public methods based on preceding price action, then, according to efficiency theory, that difference between current and predictable future price would close instantly, leaving no exploitable opportunity.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 07:53 PM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

I have to disagree again. The slope aka: dD/dT... has everything to do with recognizing beginnings, durations, and ends. I don't believe there is more refined measurement to determining this!

I do . . . if you use that and are satified with it . . . marvelous!

I don't use measurement because randomness can not CALCULATED with any accuracy. I'm saying that when price is trending the current oscillation can have only 4 possible PHYSICAL outcomes.

1 - a Breach of the last resistance or support level (designating the continuation of the trend at least till the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)
2 - a Failure to Breach the last resistance or support level (designating the beginning of the end of the trend at least till the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)
3- an exact match of the last resistance or support level (designating that price will challenge that specific price level on the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)
4 - and FINALLY - a weak breach/weak failure of the last resistance or support level {strickly defining weakness}(designating that price will challenge that specific price level on the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)

It is a PHYSICAL IMPOSSIBILITY for price to do something other than one of these 4 outcomes. At least in this dimension.

Posted by jsp326 on 03-13-05 07:54 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

If a minimum price difference between present and approaching price could be calculated using public methods based on preceding price action, then, according to efficiency theory, the difference between current price and the predictable future price would close instantly, leaving no exploitable opportunity.

Ah. Efficiency theory is the underlying assumption here. Now it's clear--not that I agree, but I see where you're coming from. Thanks.

I'm glad my timing models somehow exist (and outperform) outside the bounds of such academic theories, though.

Posted by OldTrader on 03-13-05 07:57 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

What you're getting at is valid in general but does not apply to what price trend traders think they see on the chart.

Just because price has drawn itself with a certain slope over a previous timeframe doesn't mean it has done so due to a tendency that will continue into the tradable future.

I think this is the point that you miss: Every "trend" has a beginning and an end. If you detect a "trend" tomorrow and act on it, your odds of acting at the "end" are fairly low, since obviously the "end" is only one point along the continuum of prices comprising the "trend".

So here's what we can say:

1. Trends clearly exist. We can see them on charts in every time frame.

2. The two most likely points along this trend continuum for us to "miss" would be the beginning point and the ending point.

3. Therefore, the odds are vastly in favor at any point along the continuum that if you make a trade in the direction of trend that it will continue.

What a "trend trader" should see on a chart is the "trend" within that particular time frame. Once he "sees" the trend, he would know that the odds vastly favor acting in the direction of trend, because his odds of picking the end of the trend are quite low.

None of this by the way means that when you are looking at a particular trend that it is impossible that the trend could end at the next instant. It's just unlikely. At any point along the trend continuum the trend is more likely to continue than to end.

OldTrader

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-13-05 08:08 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

I do . . . if you use that and are satisfied with it . . . marvelous!

I don't use measurement because randomness can not CALCULATED with any accuracy. I'm saying that when price is trending the current oscillation can have only 4 possible PHYSICAL outcomes.

1 - a Breach of the last resistance or support level (designating the continuation of the trend at least till the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)
2 - a Failure to Breach the last resistance or support level (designating the beginning of the end of the trend at least till the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)
3- an exact match of the last resistance or support level (designating that price will challenge that specific price level on the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)
4 - and FINALLY - a weak breach/weak failure of the last resistance or support level {strickly defining weakness}(designating that price will challenge that specific price level on the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)

It is a PHYSICAL IMPOSSIBILITY for price to do something other than one of these 4 outcomes. At least in this dimension.

I don't know Prof, first I think that you and I are mind set on two entirely different time intervals... (even though fractal relationships cause this to not even matter, really).

And with that I have to say that the primary phYsical characteristics of the market ( that I study) cause me to say that I believe you are delusioned.

Not saying though, that your methodology might not be extremely profitable and accurate, but you can't be talking about the most foundational physical characteristics, as I am.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-13-05 08:14 PM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

I don't know Prof, first I think that you and I are mind set on two entirely different time intervals... (even though fractal relationships cause this to not even matter, really).

And with that I have to say that the primary phYsical characteristics of the market ( that I study) cause me to say that I believe you are delusioned.

Not saying though, that your methodology might not be extremely profitable and accurate, but you can't be talking about the most foundational physical characteristics, as I am.

Actually with your "4", I agree loosely. I only say loosely because we're talking two different contexts.

Posted by easyrider on 03-13-05 08:50 PM:

Proftlogic

I was checking out your results so far this year for es on your website. Do I read it right when it says 203 trades so far with no losers?

edit: oops. I see now that these are hypothetical results. Do you have any actual trading results anywhere?

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-13-05 09:26 PM:

Your new nick name by me.. "The White Shadow"

Inside joke

Posted by Learner on 03-13-05 10:13 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

......according to efficiency theory, that difference between current and predictable future price would close instantly, ........

I spent a few hours on reading this threads. Benefiting from all sides arguments,...... .
As i was a scalper so i understood most of what you said here. You mentioned many times in this threads----- "efficiency theory" Could you give me a brief, a few words to outline what is efficiency theory to help me understand you better.

Now i call my trade "micro-swing" style something in between of scalping and swing (trend) trading.

Thank you in advance

__________________
Always a learner

Posted by Grob109 on 03-13-05 10:29 PM:

repost of annotated chart.

Quote from Grob109:

Try reading the annotations very very very thoroughly. take the original Print it 10 times and draw everything I did 10 times or until you do it once without a mistake.

I checked the attachment to this statement I made on page 18 None of the black (text or lines) came through on the chart. Attached is a diffrent extention from paint. I tested it in feedback and it seems to transmit properly.

For making money trends are really extremely supportive. There are many commonly shared views in this thread that demonstrate that very few people understand what a trend is or even where it is on what they are viewing. Those that do not think trends exist do not make it into this group.

Flashboy demonstrates several handicaps that are shared by many here.

All money making occurs in a partnership the trader makes with the market. Neither can do the others jobs or tasks. All money is made by the principle of the time rate of change of price over time.

So WHEN you annotate as you monitor, is important.

The five minute display of whatever the chart is showing (qqqq)served to illustrate making money.

Trends define where price cannot go and where price is contained. Since they overlap each other, you are never in doubt about where price can make you money. You also know that you can make money all of the time from this one factor.

Naturally, from about fifth grade onward it is possible to, at all times, define where price is contained. Knowing that a trend ends within its container is another simple beautiful thought. It allows you to make more money and make it sooner.

The attachment has trend lines for making money as you monitor. There are 26 segments for the 4 1/2 hours. they all are drawn ASAP and occasionally extended. The volume dV/dt is shown as positive and negative segments; there are 21 of these.

As a skill test, print the chart (with black showing) and number the segments for price and the segments for volume.

Monitoring money making involves two calculus related items dP/dt which is ever positive for your trades (you trade long or short to take advantage of all price movements all the time) and dV/dt which is THE leading indicator of price.

Now you see a plus dV/dt means tren will continue. A negative dV/dt means the trend will change. "continue" and "change" are not opposites. Making money does not deal in opposites. You can see that almost all elite trader posts are based upon opposites. The market does a job. It tells you about change and continuation.

Traders think about opposites mistakenly. Here is a common pair of them that are in a lot of posts: buy and sell. What if a person was interested in making money and he partnered with the market to make money. When he becomes a real pro (this is an amateur term for me), he deals in two factors that are not opposites: hold and reverse. When dV/dt is positive the market is saying be ready to keep holding; when dV/dt is negative the market is saying be ready to reverse. This activity is simple. The second derivative of Volume relative to price goes to zero between the times The first derivative changes sign.

Write out the definition of sidelining from the above. Hint: you sideline when the activity of the market exceeds your skills and when dP/dt = 0.

So in this chart you see other major data for making money. trends have widths and velocity (steepness). The container of price in which you trade has sides. The calculus of Volume is related to which side.... LOL..... Imagine whether more people use this side to trade than the other side. Imagine as you read this you have never in your life even thought this far into making money.

So make a list of everyone who talks about trend lines and their slopes only. make a list of those who use twosides to define a trend. Why did DB never get to using the correct side to ______ or _______?

So the chart shows a typical "M" day. Do you see the trend channel widens for each of the two am trends? On positive dV/dt in both cases.

Do you see the trend container ends as P comes of the left line as dV/dt goes negative after d2V/dt2 zeroed in between. All of this is where the overlap of the trends is initiated.

So do you look closely enough to see when ASAP occurs to draw a segment for the trend container of the prices to come, all within the trend.

Lets say you do not know any fifth graders who can explain this to you. At least you can go out on the wrong side of the trend channel later.

For those who have it down, see how smooth the low volume slalom begins when, as usual the "S" of the day gives you the repeated failure (INSUFFICIENT Volume) to expand the L of the H/L of the day. Did you see that H hit for you. No you didn't; there wasn't anylow volume to prove in the H.

Borrow a yellow crayola from a child to underline whats new to you. Mark in a color of your choosing, what you need to change in your mind. Say each one at least five times to make anything even start to stick.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-13-05 10:31 PM:

Quote from Learner:

I spent a few hours on reading this threads. Benefiting from all sides arguments,...... .
As i was a scalper so i understood most of what you said here. You mentioned many times in this threads----- "efficiency theory" Could you give me a brief, a few words to outline what is efficiency theory to help me understand you better.

Now i call my trade "micro-swing" style something in between of scalping and swing (trend) trading.

Thank you in advance

Efficiency theory says that current market price accurately reflects all publicly available information.

It seems obvious to me, considering the money at stake and the resources available to the bigger players.

Posted by nononsense on 03-13-05 10:46 PM:

Re: repost of annotated chart.

Quote from Grob109:

I checked the attachment to this statement I made on page 18 None of the black (text or lines) came through on the chart. Attached is a diffrent extention from paint. I tested it in feedback and it seems to transmit properly.
[...]

Jack,

Great to see you're back. Your presence is badly needed in this kind of thread.

nononsense

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 10:47 PM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

I don't know Prof, first I think that you and I are mind set on two entirely different time intervals... (even though fractal relationships cause this to not even matter, really).

And with that I have to say that the primary phYsical characteristics of the market ( that I study) cause me to say that I believe you are delusioned.

Not saying though, that your methodology might not be extremely profitable and accurate, but you can't be talking about the most foundational physical characteristics, as I am.

I stated 4 absolutes that occur in a totally random Market place . . . prove me wrong.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 10:55 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

Proftlogic

I was checking out your results so far this year for es on your website. Do I read it right when it says 203 trades so far with no losers?

edit: oops. I see now that these are hypothetical results. Do you have any actual trading results anywhere?

If you read the trend the only way you could lose is if you were aggressive in your entry, countertrend trading or holding a position overnight where you are not in control of the trade any longer.

And yes I do. I actually trade for a living . . . do you? And the CFTC has checked out my site and traders participating in it and I'm still here . . . any more questions?

Posted by easyrider on 03-13-05 10:58 PM:

No need to get testy. All I asked is if you have any actual trade results I can look at. Surely someone in your position has some audited results for potential customers to look at.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 11:02 PM:

Re: repost of annotated chart.

Quote from Grob109:

Borrow a yellow crayola from a child to underline whats new to you. Mark in a color of your choosing, what you need to change in your mind. Say each one at least five times to make anything even start to stick. [/B]

I see resurrection is common is trading forums. Welcome back Jack!

Posted by Cutten on 03-13-05 11:10 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

The real issue is whether or not past price action determines future price action.

Not necessarily. It is possible that past price action could have no effect whatsoever on future price action, yet still signal the likely character of future price action to a sufficient degree to make a profit.

Posted by nzbryant on 03-13-05 11:15 PM:

Jack

That is one of the best posts ever - thank you. You are becoming very lucid in your teaching.

Jrkob

Was using RAND() in Excel. THanks for the link. On a few thousand simulations the average end point of the random number chain (20 bars) was zero, so I expect it is working. The average return from buying low and selling high on the random number chain (without foresight) was very significantly higher than zero.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-13-05 11:20 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

No need to get testy. All I asked is if you have any actual trade results I can look at. Surely someone in your position has some audited results for potential customers to look at.

I don't have customers. I teach and love what I do. You want to learn . . . great. I will spend a thousand hours with you to assist you if necessary. I have the patience of Job. If you don't want to learn what I teach . . . don't. No pressure here.

Someone said the other day, "Teach a man to fish and feed him for a day". You all know the rest of that. I have my own version of the next part. "Teach a man to fish and he'll sit on the bank and drink beer all day". I teach people to trust what they see from seeing the same scenario play out with perfect consistency so pulling the trigger is an afterthought. Guru's are a dime a dozen. Traders trade for themselves and must trust themselves and there decisions perfectly to succeed. Doubt will fester and kill a trader both financially and psychologically. I believe a trader must eliminate risk not limit it. Of course I'm a delusional fool and have no clue what I'm talking about so please discount everything I say.

Posted by Cutten on 03-13-05 11:28 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

Efficiency theory says that current market price accurately reflects all publicly available information.

It doesn't say that - it says that in a perfectly competitive market in an equilibium state, the current market price accurately reflects all publicly available information. Given that no perfectly competitive markets exist (perfect competition requires infinite competitors, or finite competitors with infinite capital and infinite competing ability), your claim doesn't apply to any existing market.

Limiting capital available for market transactions means that things such as liquidity conditions can prevent inefficiencies being exploited. Limiting competition, or limiting the scope of competition, implies a similar restriction on market efficiency.

Economic theory, when applied to conditions prevailing in reality (rather than in a theoretical perfectly competitive market), postulates a world where markets *tend towards* efficiency, but where competition and capital is limited, where unearthing edges and processing information takes time and varies according to talent, research resources, and effort, and where new developments are creating new potential edges all the time. The process of searching for inefficiencies is an ongoing one, in line with the opening up of new markets and asset classes. The fact that exploiting inefficiencies takes time means that edges don't disappear over night, but rather take days, weeks, months, years or even decades to disappear.

Above-average returns on capital ("edges") are subject to supply and demand, barriers to entry, lead times, competition etc like everything else. If the assumptions of efficiency theory held in the real world, then no businesses would ever turn an above average profit, and no individual would earn an above average income. Yet we can see higher than average returns on equity being generated by countless businesses, and plenty of people generate lots high incomes and excess wealth.

Posted by easyrider on 03-13-05 11:29 PM:

Prof

Being a logical person and a trader Im sure you can see how another trader might have a little problem with the claim that a person following your method would have made 203 consecutive trades this year without a loser. Since this is your system and you are the expert it is logical to assume that you are having similiar results in your own trading. Can you just give me a ball park figure on your actual winning percentage? I'll go first. Mines right at 50%.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-13-05 11:32 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

...a delusional fool and have no clue what I'm talking about....

I was the one who used the word delusion.
But, that was delusioned (in ref of our convo) not delusional. No intention to offend here, Prof.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-13-05 11:34 PM:

Quote from Cutten:

Not necessarily. It is possible that past price action could have no effect whatsoever on future price action, yet still signal the likely character of future price action to a sufficient degree to make a profit.

Okay, here's the new and improved version:

The real issue is whether or not future price can be determined on the basis of past price action.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-13-05 11:51 PM:

Quote from Cutten:

It doesn't say that - it says that in a perfectly competitive market in an equilibium state, the current market price accurately reflects all publicly available information. Given that no perfectly competitive markets exist (perfect competition requires infinite competitors, or finite competitors with infinite capital and infinite competing ability), your claim doesn't apply to any existing market.

That's incorrect.

Efficiency theory has no requirement of a perfect market as one of its functional parameters. Advocates of the theory make frequent comments on actual market conditions.

Posted by BSAM on 03-13-05 11:53 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

Okay, here's the new and improved version:

The real issue is whether or not future price can be determined on the basis of past price action.

Yes. Emphatically, yes.

Posted by Cutten on 03-13-05 11:56 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

That's incorrect.

Efficiency theory has no requirement of a perfect market as one of its functional parameters. Advocates of the theory make frequent comments on actual market conditions.

For a perfectly efficient market, it does require perfect competition. The efficiency is relative to the level of competition in the market in question.

E.g. ""An 'efficient' market is defined as a market where there are large numbers of rational, profit-maximizers actively competing, with each trying to predict future market values of individual securities, and where important current information is almost freely available to all participants. In an efficient market, competition among the many intelligent participants leads to a situation where, at any point in time, actual prices of individual securities already reflect the effects of information based both on events that have already occurred and on events which, as of now, the market expects to take place in the future." - Eugene Fama

It is competition from rational profit-maximisers with cheap access to market sensitive information that creates efficiency. Therefore any barriers to that process will degrade efficiency. For example - irrational or non-profit-maximising behaviour, expensive or hard to find information, limitations (e.g. low capital) on the ability of profit-maximisers to trade on superior information, small numbers of competitors, and so on.

Posted by John Merchant on 03-14-05 12:01 AM:

Jack. A fabulous post at page 44! I have done my best to keep your memory alive during your absence. You know that Nwbprop said a few days ago that he was giving himself two months to "get it" before he gives up and goes to B school (at, one assumes, a B school)? You still have time to teach him. Not since Lewis Carroll have we seen a genius like you! The concept of derivatives of a random variable leaves me breathless! And no one attracts ET's REAL talent to a thread more than you do! Bravo!

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 12:07 AM:

Quote from easyrider:

Prof

Being a logical person and a trader Im sure you can see how another trader might have a little problem with the claim that a person following your method would have made 203 consecutive trades this year without a loser. Since this is your system and you are the expert it is logical to assume that you are having similiar results in your own trading. Can you just give me a ball park figure on your actual winning percentage? I'll go first. Mines right at 50%.

The 203 trades accounts for ALL the aggressive and conservative set-ups the ES Market created so far this year based on reading the price oscillations. I teach people to trade with ultra conservative entries and exits, to use strict stops, stick to their daily goals and to use tight money management parameters. The Market creates 10 to 20 set-ups a day but if you KNOW that 2 or 3 or 4 of those are ultra-conservative and have a better that 90% chance of success, why on earth would you trade the other 7 to 17 other ones? I know of traders that haven't had a losing day in months but they pick their trades and have patience. Losing trades are no big deal, no one is perfect. Losing days are rare if you learn to read price.

Posted by easyrider on 03-14-05 12:26 AM:

So your saying your win rate is around 90%. Impressive. Thats the best win rate of anyone I know or know about.

Posted by Equalizer on 03-14-05 12:40 AM:

Quote from Cutten:

It doesn't say that - it says that in a perfectly competitive market in an equilibium state, the current market price accurately reflects all publicly available information. Given that no perfectly competitive markets exist (perfect competition requires infinite competitors, or finite competitors with infinite capital and infinite competing ability), your claim doesn't apply to any existing market.

Limiting capital available for market transactions means that things such as liquidity conditions can prevent inefficiencies being exploited. Limiting competition, or limiting the scope of competition, implies a similar restriction on market efficiency.

Economic theory, when applied to conditions prevailing in reality (rather than in a theoretical perfectly competitive market), postulates a world where markets *tend towards* efficiency, but where competition and capital is limited, where unearthing edges and processing information takes time and varies according to talent, research resources, and effort, and where new developments are creating new potential edges all the time. The process of searching for inefficiencies is an ongoing one, in line with the opening up of new markets and asset classes. The fact that exploiting inefficiencies takes time means that edges don't disappear over night, but rather take days, weeks, months, years or even decades to disappear.

Above-average returns on capital ("edges") are subject to supply and demand, barriers to entry, lead times, competition etc like everything else. If the assumptions of efficiency theory held in the real world, then no businesses would ever turn an above average profit, and no individual would earn an above average income. Yet we can see higher than average returns on equity being generated by countless businesses, and plenty of people generate lots high incomes and excess wealth.

Very well said! Excellent!

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 12:44 AM:

Quote from easyrider:

So your saying your win rate is around 90%. Impressive. Thats the best win rate of anyone I know or know about.

Lol, personally my win rate is over 80% but I only trade a couple times a day maximum. To me consistency of results is more important that quantity. No need to be greedy when I can trade, make what I need to be comfortable and be done by noon most days. It has to do with quality of life.

Posted by Equalizer on 03-14-05 12:45 AM:

Quote from John Merchant:

Jack. ......
The concept of derivatives of a random variable leaves me breathless!

Would you care to enlighten Jack about this perhaps?

http://www.mathserv.okanagan.bc.ca/...14/walk/Ito.htm

and then the ensuing discussions on non-normality and stable vs non-stable processes, 'cause I can't be arsed.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-14-05 01:04 AM:

Quote from Cutten:

For a perfectly efficient market, it does require perfect competition. The efficiency is relative to the level of competition in the market in question.

E.g. ""An 'efficient' market is defined as a market where there are large numbers of rational, profit-maximizers actively competing, with each trying to predict future market values of individual securities, and where important current information is almost freely available to all participants. In an efficient market, competition among the many intelligent participants leads to a situation where, at any point in time, actual prices of individual securities already reflect the effects of information based both on events that have already occurred and on events which, as of now, the market expects to take place in the future." - Eugene Fama

It is competition from rational profit-maximisers with cheap access to market sensitive information that creates efficiency. Therefore any barriers to that process will degrade efficiency. For example - irrational or non-profit-maximising behaviour, expensive or hard to find information, limitations (e.g. low capital) on the ability of profit-maximisers to trade on superior information, small numbers of competitors, and so on.

My claim for the theory of efficiency is that it applies with reasonable accuracy. Perfection is not required in the present discussion.

Posted by nkhoi on 03-14-05 01:12 AM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

..Of course I'm a delusional fool ...

"Due to problems with "Theft of Information" and harassment this Website is CLOSED..." now I understand, thnx for the explanation.

ps. lets do some logic here, I don't know any current sub. and I am not an "educator" so does the site close or open to me.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 01:18 AM:

Quote from nkhoi:

"Due to problems with "Theft of Information" and harassment this Website is CLOSED..." now I understand, thnx for the explanation.

Since you seem to be unable to post the entire sentence . . . twice, I will do it for you.

"Due to problems with "Theft of Information" and harassment this Website is CLOSED except for current Subscribers. The only new Subscribers given access will be on a referral basis from a current Subscriber or a verified college or graduate school educator."

boo bye

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-14-05 01:29 AM:

Re: repost of annotated chart.

Quote from Grob109:

...

All money making occurs in a partnership the trader makes with the market. Neither can do the others jobs or tasks. All money is made by the principle of the time rate of change of price over time.

So WHEN you annotate as you monitor, is important.

The five minute display of whatever the chart is showing (qqqq)served to illustrate making money.

Trends define where price cannot go and where price is contained. Since they overlap each other, you are never in doubt about where price can make you money. You also know that you can make money all of the time from this one factor.

Naturally, from about fifth grade onward it is possible to, at all times, define where price is contained. Knowing that a trend ends within its container is another simple beautiful thought. It allows you to make more money and make it sooner.

The attachment has trend lines for making money as you monitor. There are 26 segments for the 4 1/2 hours. they all are drawn ASAP and occasionally extended. The volume dV/dt is shown as positive and negative segments; there are 21 of these.

As a skill test, print the chart (with black showing) and number the segments for price and the segments for volume.

Monitoring money making involves two calculus related items dP/dt which is ever positive for your trades (you trade long or short to take advantage of all price movements all the time) and dV/dt which is THE leading indicator of price.

Now you see a plus dV/dt means tren will continue. A negative dV/dt means the trend will change. "continue" and "change" are not opposites. Making money does not deal in opposites. You can see that almost all elite trader posts are based upon opposites. The market does a job. It tells you about change and continuation.

Traders think about opposites mistakenly. Here is a common pair of them that are in a lot of posts: buy and sell. What if a person was interested in making money and he partnered with the market to make money. When he becomes a real pro (this is an amateur term for me), he deals in two factors that are not opposites: hold and reverse. When dV/dt is positive the market is saying be ready to keep holding; when dV/dt is negative the market is saying be ready to reverse. This activity is simple. The second derivative of Volume relative to price goes to zero between the times The first derivative changes sign.

Write out the definition of sidelining from the above. Hint: you sideline when the activity of the market exceeds your skills and when dP/dt = 0.

So in this chart you see other major data for making money. trends have widths and velocity (steepness). The container of price in which you trade has sides. The calculus of Volume is related to which side.... LOL..... Imagine whether more people use this side to trade than the other side. Imagine as you read this you have never in your life even thought this far into making money.

So make a list of everyone who talks about trend lines and their slopes only. make a list of those who use twosides to define a trend. Why did DB never get to using the correct side to ______ or _______?

So the chart shows a typical "M" day. Do you see the trend channel widens for each of the two am trends? On positive dV/dt in both cases.

Do you see the trend container ends as P comes of the left line as dV/dt goes negative after d2V/dt2 zeroed in between. All of this is where the overlap of the trends is initiated.

So do you look closely enough to see when ASAP occurs to draw a segment for the trend container of the prices to come, all within the trend.

Lets say you do not know any fifth graders who can explain this to you. At least you can go out on the wrong side of the trend channel later.

For those who have it down, see how smooth the low volume slalom begins when, as usual the "S" of the day gives you the repeated failure (INSUFFICIENT Volume) to expand the L of the H/L of the day. Did you see that H hit for you. No you didn't; there wasn't anylow volume to prove in the H.

Borrow a yellow crayola from a child to underline whats new to you. Mark in a color of your choosing, what you need to change in your mind. Say each one at least five times to make anything even start to stick.

This innovation could change trading as we know it.

Posted by Walther on 03-14-05 01:47 AM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

Okay, here's the new and improved version:

The real issue is whether or not future price can be determined on the basis of past price action.

Price cannot be determined accurately enough to trade.
Time of a price reversal can be determined accurately enough to trade.

Posted by jrkob on 03-14-05 01:55 AM:

Quote from nzbryant:

Jrkob

Was using RAND() in Excel. THanks for the link. On a few thousand simulations the average end point of the random number chain (20 bars) was zero, so I expect it is working.

The fact that the average end point of the random number chain is zero is absolutely not sufficient to claim that Excel random numbers are truely random. Again, they are NOT. It is absolutely possible for a semi-random number chain to give you constantly an average end point of zero. And this is exactly what is happening in your case.

Sorry, I don't mean to challenge you for the sake of it, I have better things to do. But I can just tell you one thing: you are making wrong assumptions.

Posted by John Merchant on 03-14-05 02:53 AM:

Equalizer. A lot of ass-muptions buried in that derivation, such as a constant drift and a constand diffusion. Neither of which allow for the fact that a tewn tick change often is followed by a four tick reversal. Help an old man understand your point, please? Is it ridiculous to talk of derivatives of P and V, or not?

Posted by Equalizer on 03-14-05 03:02 AM:

Quote from John Merchant:

Equalizer. A lot of ass-muptions buried in that derivation, such as a constant drift and a constand diffusion. Neither of which allow for the fact that a tewn tick change often is followed by a four tick reversal. Help an old man understand your point, please? Is it ridiculous to talk of derivatives of P and V, or not?

I believe this is what is termed cognitive dissonance.

John, did you or did you not state that the concept of differentiation of a random variable left you "breathless" as you put it in Grob's post?

The link was supposed to provide some clarity to the mathematically minded who might have been confused about some of the statements. Otherwise, I don't give a flying 4X what you or anyone else thinks about the properties of price/volume trajectories.

Then again, if Grob uses the slope of P and V (maybe we should call it the ideal gas equation

) and makes money from it, who are you or I to argue with him.

Posted by WAEL012000 on 03-14-05 03:39 AM:

Quote from 5yrtrader:

Well then your problem is you and you have just supplied the answer. If your losing money thinking the market is oversold, then your wrong. The market is never "oversold," so sell lows buy highs and quit bitching.

completely wrong!

This is what the big money watch for. They watch for people who think that the market is not over sold/bought and that is when they reverse with a vengeance.

They watch for the herds to show up (spikes) and that is when they catch them in a bull/ bear trap.

They know that these herds will not easily abort their position easily due to their complete and utter conviction in the trend.

I only go countertrend for two reasons.

1- big money does not like spikes and accelerated and big price moves , the moment they see herds jumping in (spikes) they dump half of their position on the opposite direction to push them out.

2- what you call a pullback on a 30-60 min. chart I call a trend reversal on a 5 min.

I watch for the big money when they push the small fish out and jump with them.

Now there technicals that I use to help me spot a reversal, if you master them you would fare well in more times than none.

If you are wrong, get out at a pre-set stop loss. If you are right get out at a pre set profit taking (usually 2.5 times bigger than stop loss)

I really belive that there are two types of traders, a trend trader and a reverse trader...You seldomly have a trader who could master both.

Posted by OldTrader on 03-14-05 03:57 AM:

Quote from WAEL012000:

I really belive that there are two types of traders, a trend trader and a reverse trader...You seldomly have a trader who could master both.

How does a "reverse trader" make any money if he doesn't hold for the "trend" following the "reverse"?

OldTrader

Posted by vikana on 03-14-05 05:13 AM:

Moderator Note

Quote from ProfLogic:

Since you seem to be unable to post the entire sentence . . . twice, I will do it for you.

"Due to problems with "Theft of Information" and harassment this Website is CLOSED except for current Subscribers. The only new Subscribers given access will be on a referral basis from a current Subscriber or a verified college or graduate school educator."

boo bye

I have asked ProfLogic to tone down references to his site and cut back on the "self promotion". Anyone with interest in promoting services can contact Baron to become a paid sponsor.

Now ... let's get back to the very good original question posed by Flashboy.

__________________
Free your mind

Posted by WAEL012000 on 03-14-05 06:07 AM:

Quote from OldTrader:

How does a "reverse trader" make any money if he doesn't hold for the "trend" following the "reverse"?

OldTrader

Good question!

I usually do not care if the position that I take will end up to be a trend for I usually exit based on specific profit targets that ideally corresponds with either the price and volume chart or the median on the "channel linear regression."

I careless if the it continues for another 50 points after my exit.
If it does, I will not beat myself over the lost opportunity, instead, I will be looking for that trend to fade so I could reverse it.

Having me saying that, you really need to know how the smart money like to play their game in particular market you are trading. In my case, it is the NQ and nothing but.

Cheers

Posted by Coffeebean on 03-14-05 07:47 AM:

Nothing helps a trader in doubt quite like 49 pages of suggestions from different styles!! Here's mine: MA's on candlesticks (daily, weekly) for long term, market profile for intra-day and scalping (add splits, it's right there). Success, CB

__________________
"Colonel Sanders is the greatest white man that ever lived." -- Charles Barkley.

Posted by LoosenUp on 03-14-05 07:47 AM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

I do . . . if you use that and are satified with it . . . marvelous!

I don't use measurement because randomness can not CALCULATED with any accuracy. I'm saying that when price is trending the current oscillation can have only 4 possible PHYSICAL outcomes.

1 - a Breach of the last resistance or support level (designating the continuation of the trend at least till the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)
2 - a Failure to Breach the last resistance or support level (designating the beginning of the end of the trend at least till the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)
3- an exact match of the last resistance or support level (designating that price will challenge that specific price level on the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)
4 - and FINALLY - a weak breach/weak failure of the last resistance or support level {strickly defining weakness}(designating that price will challenge that specific price level on the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)

It is a PHYSICAL IMPOSSIBILITY for price to do something other than one of these 4 outcomes. At least in this dimension.

Yes, in a sense, price can only do one of the 4 things. But what are you trying to say here? Can you trade profitably knowing that price will do one of the 4 things but not knowing which comes first or the different manifestations of these simple classifications?

Posted by nononsense on 03-14-05 08:14 AM:

Quote from John Merchant:

Equalizer. A lot of ass-muptions buried in that derivation, such as a constant drift and a constand diffusion. Neither of which allow for the fact that a tewn tick change often is followed by a four tick reversal. Help an old man understand your point, please? Is it ridiculous to talk of derivatives of P and V, or not?

John,
Your skepticism is that of any serious mathematician smelling foul odors. Applying common derivation to diffusion processes is nonsense.

Long time ago, people used to treat such problems in a non-rigorous manner. Diffusion and Brownian motion problems have to be treated rigorously by applying 'Stochastic Differential Equations' (Ito).

However, for many such processes, probabilities can be shown to obey partial differential equations in the commonly understood sense.

Posted by Equalizer on 03-14-05 08:30 AM:

Quote from nononsense:

Long time ago, people used to treat such problems in a non-rigorous manner. Diffusion and Brownian motion problems have to be treated rigorously by applying 'Stochastic Differential Equations' (Ito).

Cognitive Dissonace take 2.

Gee thanks for pointing out what I already was referring to in my post, i.e., Ito.

Did you even bother to check out the link before shooting your mouth off like a Cannon?

Here it is again:
http://www.mathserv.okanagan.bc.ca/...14/walk/Ito.htm

Anyone interested in rigorous derivations, etc, would be better served by referring to one of the standard texts on Stochastic Processes and Fin Maths, like - for example - Karatzas and Shreve, Billingsley, Shiryaev, etc, etc...

Posted by nononsense on 03-14-05 08:57 AM:

Quote from Equalizer:

Cognitive Dissonace take 2.

Gee thanks for pointing out what I already was referring to in my post, i.e., Ito.

Did you even bother to check out the link before shooting your mouth off like a Cannon?

Here it is again:
http://www.mathserv.okanagan.bc.ca/...14/walk/Ito.htm

Anyone interested in rigorous derivations, etc, would be better served by referring to one of the standard texts on Stochastic Processes and Fin Maths, like - for example - Karatzas and Shreve, Billingsley, Shiryaev, etc, etc...

Hi equalizer,

No, my eye fell on John's rightful comment. In my attempt to wade through the mass of prior posts, I missed your shining nugget burried in it.
Sorry to see you so worked up about this. May I be forgiven,

nononsense

Posted by hank rollins on 03-14-05 12:38 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

I do . . . if you use that and are satified with it . . . marvelous!

I don't use measurement because randomness can not CALCULATED with any accuracy. I'm saying that when price is trending the current oscillation can have only 4 possible PHYSICAL outcomes.

1 - a Breach of the last resistance or support level (designating the continuation of the trend at least till the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)
2 - a Failure to Breach the last resistance or support level (designating the beginning of the end of the trend at least till the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)
3- an exact match of the last resistance or support level (designating that price will challenge that specific price level on the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)
4 - and FINALLY - a weak breach/weak failure of the last resistance or support level {strickly defining weakness}(designating that price will challenge that specific price level on the next oscillation at a matching extreme or minor level)

It is a PHYSICAL IMPOSSIBILITY for price to do something other than one of these 4 outcomes. At least in this dimension.

the stock will go up, the stock will go down. it is impossible for it to do anything else. anything else, genius ?

i think the "chanelling stock" people and wade cook beat you to this idea by several years.

you are way behind the times.

Posted by Equalizer on 03-14-05 12:57 PM:

Quote from nononsense:

Hi equalizer,

No, my eye fell on John's rightful comment. In my attempt to wade through the mass of prior posts, I missed your shining nugget burried in it.
Sorry to see you so worked up about this. May I be forgiven,

nononsense

Don't give up your day job

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 03:31 PM:

Quote from LoosenUp:

Yes, in a sense, price can only do one of the 4 things. But what are you trying to say here? Can you trade profitably knowing that price will do one of the 4 things but not knowing which comes first or the different manifestations of these simple classifications?

Is a Bull Trend not started or continued by a (HH - HL - HH) or (HL - HH - HL)
Is a Bear Trend not started or continued by a (LL - LH - LH) or (LH - LL - LH)
It takes 3 points to designate a trend so seeing a trend establish itself it simple. Continuations are then easy to read, consolidation is simply a disruption of the consistency of the trend and trend reversals are the transition of one trend to another.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 03:35 PM:

Quote from hank rollins:

the stock will go up, the stock will go down. it is impossible for it to do anything else. anything else, genius ?

i think the "chanelling stock" people and wade cook beat you to this idea by several years.

you are way behind the times.

Sorry, their apples are nothing even remotely close to my oranges. You'd better light another candle to see it a little better. On second thought, just blow the candle out.

Posted by Walther on 03-14-05 03:40 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from Walther:

Trendlines continue into the future and if drawn correctly they can be very decent predictive tool . So if one knows how to draw trendlines, one can know areas of reversals. I think this might be helpful to many.

Yes, enter Monday 9:55 est .

For those who follow QQQQ, draw horizontal trendline at price level of 9:55 est

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-14-05 04:16 PM:

Quote from Walther:

Price cannot be determined accurately enough to trade.
Time of a price reversal can be determined accurately enough to trade.

What you're saying is that you can tell when the market will reverse, but you can't give a minimum difference in price between the reversal point and the end of the following trend. In other words, you're not saying anything at all.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 04:20 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from Walther:

For those who follow QQQQ, draw horizontal trendline at price level of 9:55 est

I agree. Here's the QQQ. Can you see a long term and a short term trend?

And the current Bottom and the previous Short Term bottom match . . . hmmmmm.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-14-05 04:21 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Is a Bull Trend not started or continued by a (HH - HL - HH) or (HL - HH - HL)
Is a Bear Trend not started or continued by a (LL - LH - LH) or (LH - LL - LH)
It takes 3 points to designate a trend so seeing a trend establish itself it simple. Continuations are then easy to read, consolidation is simply a disruption of the consistency of the trend and trend reversals are the transition of one trend to another.

It seems P, we're on the same page. but, are you referring to a specific impulse or something more common.

Posted by easyrider on 03-14-05 04:23 PM:

Prof

How about posting some charts with your actual trade entries and exits.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 04:25 PM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

It seems P, we're on the same page. but, are you refering to a specific impulse or something more common.

I think I understand your question.

The HH, HL, LL or LH's are determined and confirmed at oscillation tops & bottoms. Comparing extreme tops to extreme tops & extreme bottoms to extreme bottoms for the overall trend and minor tops and bottoms for trading opportunities between the extremes.

Posted by Grob109 on 03-14-05 04:26 PM:

my views

There are a lot of transformations in mathemetics. Mostly they do not, however, cross the line that bounds the specialty.

A simple but powerful one can transform calculus into algebra, do operations in algebra, and thence back again to state the solution. (L transforms).

My experience was to learn in college and grad school that paying my way totally with up to three side jobs on a full schedule and cutting back to two meals a day for 6 years, was not a way to gain finacial wealth but only the practical knowledge that there was a better way to make money than working for it. I learned to use money as a commodity for making money.

Thus, I worked professionally only the first five years of my professional life. During ths time participated in an effort of IBM to realize the potential of employed staff without restrictions of capital and academic resources (facultywas flown into a specially constructed facility). I had a job as well as studies. I was exempt from working regular hours or punching a time card and my golf fees were reimbursed when I needed exercise.

My fav faculty person was Peter Gabriel Bergman, of the Manhattan Project. He was a pro at transformations and some crossed mathematical specialties. It ws a time when producing a resolution of relativistic and non-relativistic theory towards a unified theory was of highest priority. My colleagues were the sort who did not miss any Q's on the GRE of that time.

So making money comes down to finding a simple construct that allows continuous and rapid transfer of capital from a deep resource to a small group who use transformations that are kindred to the transformation of capital from one place to another.

The operating point is not an operating point ; use the math of SM as an example. There are no continuous functions. Again SM is appropriate.

Since there is a indirect correlation between time and precision ( non vector data), the market defines about seven shells of dynamic movement. (think of atoms and the distribution from the center of the cohesive system). Examples; AMTSWA uses a pair of shells and a balanced distribution of capital). Proflogic uses one shell (optimum it turns out) and exercises extreme adversion to risk (high statistical significance of the occurrance multiple independant variables; this deprives him of residence in the market, sort of). Macro analysis shows perfectly that it does not work (i. e., cannot match the performance of the common descriptive averages). Equalling the performance of the markets is the definition of break even in terms of the absolute value of capital.

So it comes down to understanding that each time shell (fractal) has its own performance and space within which price moves (makes money). There are seven that the market dictates. All separated by a roughly constant value (multiplier) that is dictated by cultural habits installed over centuries. We have a convention of short term intermediate term and long term. Trends overlap in each of these. Logically thee are times when reversals are compounded up to three simultaneous events at one moment. this is when hitting a home run begins, naturally. Most people do not know when the bases are being run as you all now see since I have mentioned it to you for the first time in your life.

Marginal analysis drives making money. Having seven fractals whose boundaries are containers for price. Smartgirl speculated heavily on the broader distributions of capital that are possible between roll overs of the commodities.

By choosing to operate in high money velocities and be in the market continually, marginal analysis gives incredible yields.

For equities fractals I limit myself to 100,000 shares of a 30 dollar stock as a capital stream simply because I wish to hold and reverse in a convenient manner relative to those who are providing me profits. (google SNMM (60% in a day) reversal or GZTC(17pts on 100k) buy, sell).

SCT trading is what I use for futures commodities indexes (I personally operate as an expert).

The maths of the matter are to take concepts of continuous functions and apply them in a statistical context of market data. This application is made in the field of human psychological behavior (a field in which I lecture). The maths requirements boil down to what a human calculator can do with aids that are functional for him in real time.

there is only one market relationship that is needed. It was conceived soon after the DOW work was done. Having this P. V relationship dictated by the market (how else?) and having human limitations in a psychological context, then there is nothing to do but observe, annotate ASAP and make decisions.

For making money, few people can do any one of these three and fewer can do all three to meet the requirement for making money. Read all posts to determine if the person has all three down and is rationl in all three areas.

Flashboy is not there in any one of the three so he has screwed himself completely.

You MUST observe the correct information of the market's choosing in a fractal of the market's choosing. Anything you choose is arbitrary and wrong. what you choose will be based upon convenience of some sort and is simply an intellectual laziness on your part. if you read posts about edges coming and going they are just statements of arbitrariness and laziness.

ASAP is the key to annotating. You annotate and extend the lines into the future as a container of price and volume action. A principle of physics also applies to human nature. Read Newton, Napier, and Peanuts. So we focus on circumstance and look for change of circumstance. This is all NOW oriented.

The P, V relationship determined by the market dictates Gausian curves for the human factor called volume. after all, don't all human aspects of things come down to a Gausian world. How natural that Gausian stuff comes from field theory.

I construct all my annotations with short straight lines as a consequence of the current state of sophistication of computers. (during my professional career, programming rose to an array of 17 instructions, where multiplication was termed repeated addition and a counter was invoked. bugs were moths that got stuck in relay arms and contacts). We are up to drawing short straight lines on a screen in 50 years.

Decision making is the single most deprived area traders enjoy. There are two decisions: continue or reverse. Lets say you do not use these decision making tools. Then anyone who monitors notices mostly that they are missing an opportunity and/ or they are loosing money. This is because the person thinks in terms of buy and sell and moreso if the time is correct for either. They are screwed. What is pattern recognition??? Who cares.

The decision to continue is the most common. It is a flow of continually making money. Occassionally, you come to the end of making money. At that time you make one and only one adjustment. You adjust to making money again.

There is another factor involved. All the while in your life you are building something. You have a combo of a film (membrane) and an organic chemistry factory that juices the links in the film. It is the original Starbucks situation. The fight of flee juices are potent and really are capable of getting a person to an irreversable situation.

flashboy got there as we all saw. and he saved his ass by taking a break for the chemicals to wear away and or be replaced if still possible. you can see that he rises alone on a marginal survival level (Now he only generates and applied brain juices related to survival sort of poorly, speaking physiologically). His fear juice maker is supremo nowadays; it flings itself all over the place as a sonsuamet "flee" application.

The other extreme is the SCT life where you have transitioned to the "sports" brain all you built in the regular venues of short and long term memory. Slaloming is the MOST reinforcing mental activiety for success that there is.

Did the poster of the chart I annotated KNOW he was at the point of the pm BO after the slalom sesssion? I doubt it.

What is it like to consider riding a bicycle in comparison to making decisions. Riding bike is sports memory. So is riding a thermal in a GROB109. So is using sports memory to make one of two decisions: continue or reverse. You may someday get a glimpse of the P, V relation. Then you can take off your training wheels.

What in trading is there to be so argumentative about. Nothing really. Trading with others and allowing what you have to be contagious is what it is all about.

If you have two bars you can draw a channel. Parallel lines seem arbitrary but they have virtues that are easily enhanced by moving them wider apart in a while if dV/dt is a plus. When the humans through volume tell you that they are mentally pooped by the direction of price, price is not going to "continue", it is going to change.

NLP is very powerfukl since it is the tool required to let the proper biochemical juices run the show for linking the knowledge traces that can be transferred to "sports memory traces that work so well that they are so effective they are unconscious in the snese that you can forgo using even short term memory and the other ancillary memories.

I usually don't ratchet up to this level of intellectual exchange but it is my way of saying thank you to those who replied to me.

It's getting less and less likely that I will collect my thoughts on these matters.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 04:30 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

Prof

How about posting some charts with your actual trade entries and exits.

Sure. Here is a current ES chart.

Posted by Walther on 03-14-05 04:31 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

What you're saying is that you can tell when the market will reverse, but you can't give a minimum difference in price between the reversal point and the end of the following trend. In other words, you're not saying anything at all.

What I am saying is that if one knows WHEN the price will be on reversal level, then one does not have to know WHAT that price will be , price is not important .

Posted by easyrider on 03-14-05 04:44 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Sure. Here is a current ES chart.

'But I dont see any entries or exits on it.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 04:51 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

'But I dont see any entries or exits on it.

sorry, only 2 hands. I'm a nasty imaginary trend trader. Trades in direction of trend. Those HL are support failures into the trend. Pull your own trigger.

Posted by easyrider on 03-14-05 05:06 PM:

What harm is there is posting your entries after the fact? Have you made any trades this morniing? I shorted ym at 10814 at 9:59:57and took a two tick loss then went long at 10817 at 10:31:29 and was stopped out on a trailing stop at 10822. See. its easy. Im just trying to get some idea of where your coming from.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-14-05 05:10 PM:

Re: my views

Quote from Grob109:

There are a lot of transformations in mathemetics. Mostly they do not, however, cross the line that bounds the specialty.

A simple but powerful one can transform calculus into algebra, do operations in algebra, and thence back again to state the solution. (L transforms).

My experience was to learn in college and grad school that paying my way totally with up to three side jobs on a full schedule and cutting back to two meals a day for 6 years, was not a way to gain finacial wealth but only the practical knowledge that there was a better way to make money than working for it. I learned to use money as a commodity for making money.

...

So making money comes down to finding a simple construct that allows continuous and rapid transfer of capital from a deep resource to a small group who use transformations that are kindred to the transformation of capital from one place to another.

The operating point is not an operating point ; use the math of SM as an example. There are no continuous functions. Again SM is appropriate.

...

So it comes down to understanding that each time shell (fractal) has its own performance and space within which price moves (makes money). There are seven that the market dictates. All separated by a roughly constant value (multiplier) that is dictated by cultural habits installed over centuries. We have a convention of short term intermediate term and long term. Trends overlap in each of these. Logically thee are times when reversals are compounded up to three simultaneous events at one moment. this is when hitting a home run begins, naturally. Most people do not know when the bases are being run as you all now see since I have mentioned it to you for the first time in your life.

Marginal analysis drives making money. Having seven fractals whose boundaries are containers for price. Smartgirl speculated heavily on the broader distributions of capital that are possible between roll overs of the commodities.

By choosing to operate in high money velocities and be in the market continually, marginal analysis gives incredible yields.

...

The maths of the matter are to take concepts of continuous functions and apply them in a statistical context of market data. This application is made in the field of human psychological behavior (a field in which I lecture). The maths requirements boil down to what a human calculator can do with aids that are functional for him in real time.

there is only one market relationship that is needed. It was conceived soon after the DOW work was done. Having this P. V relationship dictated by the market (how else?) and having human limitations in a psychological context, then there is nothing to do but observe, annotate ASAP and make decisions.

...

You MUST observe the correct information of the market's choosing in a fractal of the market's choosing. Anything you choose is arbitrary and wrong. what you choose will be based upon convenience of some sort and is simply an intellectual laziness on your part. if you read posts about edges coming and going they are just statements of arbitrariness and laziness.

ASAP is the key to annotating. You annotate and extend the lines into the future as a container of price and volume action. A principle of physics also applies to human nature. Read Newton, Napier, and Peanuts. So we focus on circumstance and look for change of circumstance. This is all NOW oriented.

The P, V relationship determined by the market dictates Gausian curves for the human factor called volume. after all, don't all human aspects of things come down to a Gausian world. How natural that Gausian stuff comes from field theory.

...

Quite right. There are much better ways to make money than working for it.

I granted this to myself one afternoon after three days with no sleep immersed in the work of Fourier and painting continuous functions without a brush. The market was the obvious choice.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 05:12 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

What harm is there is posting your entries after the fact? Have you made any trades this morniing? I shorted ym at 10814 at 9:59:57and took a two tick loss then went long at 10817 at 10:31:29 and was stopped out on a trailing stop at 10822. See. its easy.

I didn't take any trades this morning. I had 2 student calls this morning. Right now I'm watching the 1209.75 top. If it fails to breach I'll short to challenge 1202.50. If it breaches, I wait till the failure of support to go long. I trade to profit, not trade to trade.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-14-05 05:20 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

I think I understand your question.

The HH, HL, LL or LH's are determined and confirmed at oscillation tops & bottoms. Comparing extreme tops to extreme tops & extreme bottoms to extreme bottoms for the overall trend and minor tops and bottoms for trading opportunities between the extremes.

I'm chewing on it. thanks.

Posted by easyrider on 03-14-05 05:23 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

I didn't take any trades this morning. I had 2 student calls this morning. Right now I'm watching the 1209.75 top. If it fails to breach I'll short to challenge 1202.50. If it breaches, I wait till the failure of support to go long. I trade to profit, not trade to trade.

Thank you. At what point would you consider it a failure to breach? We just had a LH. Both of my trades were from signals too, by the way.

Posted by Trading Monk on 03-14-05 05:23 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

...... I trade to profit, not trade to trade.

Well said. Took me years to learn that.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-14-05 05:38 PM:

Quote from Walther:

What I am saying is that if one knows WHEN the price will be on reversal level, then one does not have to know WHAT that price will be , price is not important .

If a "trend" does not extend over a minimum range of price, then it can't be distinguished from background noise.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 05:44 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

What harm is there is posting your entries after the fact? Have you made any trades this morning? I shorted ym at 10814 at 9:59:57and took a two tick loss then went long at 10817 at 10:31:29 and was stopped out on a trailing stop at 10822. See. its easy. Im just trying to get some idea of where your coming from.

Looked at your trades. First, I don't like the YM for it's lack of liquidity but that is a personal choice. There was no News out today to add any volume to the Market so it would be a good day to play golf. I'm never in a rush to trade, better to look for a perfect set-up.
Your first trade was a little late off the failure of 108333 @ 10832. The second, in the opposite direction, was telling me you take bot sides of the trend. It's safer to trade in the trend instead of against it.

Posted by growltiger on 03-14-05 05:45 PM:

Quote from WAEL012000:

I usually do not care if the position that I take will end up to be a trend for I usually exit based on specific profit targets that ideally corresponds with either the price and volume chart or the median on the "channel linear regression."

Yup. Enter at an extreme, exit at the mean (or something like that). Forget about the money that someone else might make by holding the position in an attempt to reach the extreme opposite end of the (admittedly ill-defined) price distribution.

Posted by easyrider on 03-14-05 06:02 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Looked at your trades. First, I don't like the YM for it's lack of liquidity but that is a personal choice. There was no News out today to add any volume to the Market so it would be a good day to play golf. I'm never in a rush to trade, better to look for a perfect set-up.
Your first trade was a little late off the failure of 108333 @ 10832. The second, in the opposite direction, was telling me you take bot sides of the trend. It's safer to trade in the trend instead of against it.

Ive found that I get slightly better moves out of YM. Taking bo's of the opening range (I took ym long when es broke out) has worked pretty well for me. This morning it fizzled but thats the way it goes. I consider the previous days range but thats as far back as I need to go as far as trend goes. Different strokes......Maybe some day I will approach the lofty 80% plus range you hang out in.

How many contracts do you trade at a time for YM liquidity to be a problem for you? Where are you getting the 10833 number frrom?

Posted by hank rollins on 03-14-05 06:20 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

Prof

How about posting some charts with your actual trade entries and exits.

perhaps before the trade happens.... on the hard right edge.

his method is untestable, unproven and exists in the past only.

he could easily prove his system by gathering past data on a stock, performing a walk forward analysis, and demonstrating same. he simply cant do it.

another holy grail promotor bites the dust.

Posted by BSAM on 03-14-05 06:34 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

Hes hard to pin down for sure.

Must be a reason why.

Got to respect someone like Brandon Frederickson who occasionally has the guts to come on here and make some calls. (Nope; don't know him / don't subscribe to any of his services.)

Posted by jsp326 on 03-14-05 06:40 PM:

He may not have given a precise entry point/time, but he did say this:
"Right now I'm watching the 1209.75 top. If it fails to breach I'll short to challenge 1202.50. If it breaches, I wait till the failure of support to go long."

Soon after he wrote this the ES challenged 1209.75 and failed to breach it. If he took his short, it looks like he had a pretty good trade.

Just curious, do you give some of your exact entries/exits in real time?

Quote from hank rollins:

perhaps before the trade happens.... on the hard right edge.

his method is untestable, unproven and exists in the past only.

he could easily prove his system by gathering past data on a stock, performing a walk forward analysis, and demonstrating same. he simply cant do it.

another holy grail promotor bites the dust.

Posted by easyrider on 03-14-05 06:42 PM:

Quote from BSAM:

Must be a reason why.

Got to respect someone like Brandon Frederickson who occasionally has the guts to come on here and make some calls. (Nope; don't know him / don't subscribe to any of his services.)

Yeah. Theres been a few others, Marketsurfer comes to mind

I have no problem with somebody not making live calls UNLESS he/she is trying to prove something like a system. It has to work in real time with real trades or it aint real.

Posted by nononsense on 03-14-05 06:42 PM:

Quote from Equalizer:

Don't give up your day job

No danger. Thanks.

Posted by easyrider on 03-14-05 06:43 PM:

Quote from jsp326:

He may not have given a precise entry point/time, but he did say this:
"Right now I'm watching the 1209.75 top. If it fails to breach I'll short to challenge 1202.50. If it breaches, I wait till the failure of support to go long."

Soon after he wrote this the ES challenged 1209.75 and failed to breach it. If he took his short, it looks like he had a pretty good trade.

Just curious, do you give some of your exact entries/exits in real time?

The problem is he did not say "if it fails to breach I will go short at......."

I would post a few real time if he would but its not something I normally do. I have been in chat rooms and posted real time but it does affect your judgement a bit when you have an audience.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 06:50 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

Ive found that I get slightly better moves out of YM. Taking bo's of the opening range (I took ym long when es broke out) has worked pretty well for me. This morning it fizzled but thats the way it goes. I consider the previous days range but thats as far back as I need to go as far as trend goes. Different strokes......Maybe some day I will approach the lofty 80% plus range you hang out in.

How many contracts do you trade at a time for YM liquidity to be a problem for you? Where are you getting the 10833 number frrom?

I use all the data the Market creates and that includes overnight and pre-market. A lot of times Resistance or Support is created in those areas and if you dismiss them you are omitting important data. 10833 was the pre-Market HIGH. It was a perfect target to see if a failure was to be created and it was at both 10829 & 10832. Both were clear price/oscillation failures.

I have a friend that trades the AB which is similar. He trades 10 contract lots and adds to the position as the trend expands. When the trend breaks he exits the entire basket. He, like I, do not believe in scaling out of trades but do believe in scaling into them.

I've attached a little longer term YM to show you that the trend is still down but you have a potential multiple divergence bottom setting up which is a warning for a possible reversal. If the divergence disappears so does the reversal.

Posted by Walther on 03-14-05 06:52 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

If a "trend" does not extend over a minimum range of price, then it can't be distinguished from background noise.

That is correct, that is why I look for pullbacks (reversal points) in the future. Worst thing can happen is that reversal point will not be confirmed and I go for the next one. But price level at that forecasted point is always tradeable. See qqqq at 9:55 est . You could have made couple of nickels in either direction .

Posted by BSAM on 03-14-05 07:03 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

Yeah. Theres been a few others, Marketsurfer comes to mind I have no problem with somebody not making live calls UNLESS he/she is trying to prove something like a system. It has to work in real time with real trades or it aint real.

Yep. I got no real problem with someone coming on here trying to "Guru" as long as the person will dispense with the mumbo jumbo and show some trades; BEFORE they occur.

I think many "Gurus" are afraid to show some examples because they fear that they will pick one that will not go in the correct direction. Then they risk getting blasted here. The people who really count realize that there are MANY trades that don't pan out.

And I'll even add this. There is, IMO, much validity to what Prof is trying to say concerning "trend". However, if he is going to present himself as a teacher/guru (which, IMO, is exactly what he is doing), then it is incumbent upon him to "put some cards face up on the table"!

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-14-05 07:27 PM:

Quote from Walther:

That is correct, that is why I look for pullbacks (reversal points) in the future. Worst thing can happen is that reversal point will not be confirmed and I go for the next one. But price level at that forecasted point is always tradeable. See qqqq at 9:55 est . You could have made couple of nickels in either direction .

The up or down slope of price on a chart is an effect that does not describe its cause. That is why you can't predict if the cause of an existing "trend" will continue in the future just by looking at effects on the chart.

Once a reversal has been established, its chart doesn't reveal how far the new "trend" will continue.

Posted by easyrider on 03-14-05 07:28 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

I've attached a little longer term YM to show you that the trend is still down but you have a potential multiple divergence bottom setting up which is a warning for a possible reversal. If the divergence disappears so does the reversal.

Thanks but we trade different time frames. This "trendless" day has produced four trades for me, 1 loser, 2 winners and the fourth is still working in my favor so while your sitting on your butt waiting for perfection I am putting money in the bank.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 07:33 PM:

Quote from jsp326:

He may not have given a precise entry point/time, but he did say this:
"Right now I'm watching the 1209.75 top. If it fails to breach I'll short to challenge 1202.50. If it breaches, I wait till the failure of support to go long."

Soon after he wrote this the ES challenged 1209.75 and failed to breach it. If he took his short, it looks like he had a pretty good trade.

Just curious, do you give some of your exact entries/exits in real time?

The short off the Failure of 1209.75 @ 1209.50 or 1209.25 was nice even in this ugly consolidation. It stopped short of breaching 1202.50 @ 1203.75 but was still a decent short. The bottom @ 1203.75 confirmed further short term consolidation between 1209.75 & 1203.75. A 6 point range is not much fun but it is nice when you can recognize it quickly as consolidation.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 07:39 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

The problem is he did not say "if it fails to breach I will go short at......."

I would post a few real time if he would but its not something I normally do. I have been in chat rooms and posted real time but it does affect your judgement a bit when you have an audience.

My reason for being here is to help. At the time I am doing a number of things at once. If what I said wasn't clear enough, sorry. I use the same "speak" in class and just used to using it.
The ES is consolidating today on a potential bottom. Bottoms or tops don't concern me until they confirm then they give me foundations to trade from. I will tell you what to look for and when it occurs, make your own trading decisions.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 07:47 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

Thanks but we trade different time frames. This "trendless" day has produced four trades for me, 1 loser, 2 winners and the fourth is still working in my favor so while your sitting on your butt waiting for perfection I am putting money in the bank.

Wow, like I now must cater to you by picking your trades. I made two trades from that top I called when you asked earlier and both were profitable. Considering the consolidation today, it is all I want. If I see another conservative entry I'll take it, if not I won't. I only take conservative trades, being aggressive is foolhearty. If you know the direction price is going, why counter-trend trade. Wait for a repeat performance and buy a ticket.

Posted by easyrider on 03-14-05 08:01 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Wow, like I now must cater to you by picking your trades. I made two trades from that top I called when you asked earlier and both were profitable. Considering the consolidation today, it is all I want. If I see another conservative entry I'll take it, if not I won't. I only take conservative trades, being aggressive is foolhearty. If you know the direction price is going, why counter-trend trade. Wait for a repeat performance and buy a ticket.

I apologize. I didnt see the other post. Would you mind giving your entries and exits.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-14-05 08:07 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

I apologize. I didnt see the other post. Would you mind giving your entries and exits.

12:29 - 1208.50 S
01:36 - 1204.50 Exit

Eye Dr. Appoint. BBL

Posted by BSAM on 03-14-05 08:09 PM:

Prof.....

Post an entry.

Post your exit.

THEN add in all your commentary, AFTER you post your exit.

Some of us are busy, too.

Posted by Grob109 on 03-14-05 08:11 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

I use all the data the Market creates and that includes overnight and pre-market. A lot of times Resistance or Support is created in those areas and if you dismiss them you are omitting important data. 10833 was the pre-Market HIGH. It was a perfect target to see if a failure was to be created and it was at both 10829 & 10832. Both were clear price/oscillation failures.

I have a friend that trades the AB which is similar. He trades 10 contract lots and adds to the position as the trend expands. When the trend breaks he exits the entire basket. He, like I, do not believe in scaling out of trades but do believe in scaling into them.

I've attached a little longer term YM to show you that the trend is still down but you have a potential multiple divergence bottom setting up which is a warning for a possible reversal. If the divergence disappears so does the reversal.

IT DB

Posted by easyrider on 03-14-05 08:19 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

12:29 - 1208.50 S
01:36 - 1204.50 Exit

Eye Dr. Appoint. BBL

Thanks. That was one of them. What about the other one. What was your reason for exiting at 1204.50? That was only a .75 pullback from the low. How did you know that was the bottom? You can get your exact time off your account. Fraction of a minute can make a lot of difference.

Posted by PitchBlack on 03-14-05 08:19 PM:

Quote from BSAM:

Prof.....

Post an entry.

Post your exit.

THEN add in all your commentary, AFTER you post your exit.

Some of us are busy, too.

Posting entry or exit is useless unless you post at 12.29: sold at 1208.5
and at 01.36 bought at 1204.50.

1204.50 was the lowest point at the 1 minute charts of the whole day.
Suspicious or at least a "lucky shot".

Posted by nononsense on 03-14-05 08:36 PM:

Quote from easyrider:

Thanks. That was one of them. What about the other one. What was your reason for exiting at 1204.50? That was only a .75 pullback from the low. How did you know that was the bottom? You can get your exact time off your account. Fraction of a minute can make a lot of difference.

Never heard about "the Trend"?

Posted by AAAintheBeltway on 03-14-05 08:39 PM:

If anyone wants to know what being on the wrong side of a trend feels like, try scrolling through 58 pages of this thread desperately wanting it to end but unwilling to pull the plug because there just might be a nugget here.

I have distilled one rule to guide me in the future. After Oldtrader has made one of his typically insightful posts, there usually is not a lot of meat left on the bone.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-14-05 08:49 PM:

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

If anyone wants to know what being on the wrong side of a trend feels like, try scrolling through 58 pages of this thread desperately wanting it to end but unwilling to pull the plug because there just might be a nugget here.

I have distilled one rule to guide me in the future. After Oldtrader has made one of his typically insightful posts, there usually is not a lot of meat left on the bone.

No one can force you to learn.

Posted by BSAM on 03-14-05 08:59 PM:

Quote from ********:

Posting entry or exit is useless unless you post at 12.29: sold at 1208.5
and at 01.36 bought at 1204.50......

Exactly. This is what I'm suggesting for him to start doing. I wasn't clear in my first post. Thanks.

Posted by hank rollins on 03-14-05 09:26 PM:

Quote from jsp326:

Just curious, do you give some of your exact entries/exits in real time?

all my calls are before the fact. although, calling the market is not my business. i post my trades, since it helps me focus and stick to my system.

__________________
open up the borders to the river running green, cause i've got tranches full of dollars to trade for gasoline.......

Posted by profturf on 03-14-05 09:36 PM:

trend

i believe i have an idea why the good member has trouble trading with the trend. the reason is that in most markets, the trends are illusory. wills of the wisps that existed in the past, designed to lure you into losing big by following it with the big money after making with the small. However, in other markets the reason that the good member has trouble making money with the trend is that there are no trends in it.. the difference between the two markets can be ascertained by use of such things as the serial correaltion coefficient. which for example for the equity index markets for almost all relevant periods and differencing intervals shows such correrelations in the range of -0.03 to -0.12 . as this is my first post, let me say i am most impressed with some of the insites on this list which i saw in the course of trying to find out an exact definition for the roll date. i am a humble speculator who likes to count to gain a rudder for my trades. and my handle is in honor of the great professional turf man, robert bacon, who found like one or your insiteful members that just because you make money in baktesting some system, you can't do it in practice... the tie in between turf handicapping and markets.... profturf.

Posted by Walther on 03-14-05 11:07 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

The up or down slope of price on a chart is an effect that does not describe its cause.

'''''' Yes, it does !! """"

That is why you can't predict if the cause of an existing "trend" will continue in the future just by looking at effects on the chart.

""""" I can care less about cause, all I care about where will be the next reversal. Up or down it does not matter. When the time of predicted trend reversal comes, other indicators will tell me direction of trade ''''''''''

Once a reversal has been established, its chart doesn't reveal how far the new "trend" will continue.

'''''''If by ''how far the new trend will continue '' you mean price you are correct """""

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-14-05 11:24 PM:

Re: trend

Quote from profturf:

i believe i have an idea why the good member has trouble trading with the trend. the reason is that in most markets, the trends are illusory. wills of the wisps that existed in the past, designed to lure you into losing big by following it with the big money after making with the small. However, in other markets the reason that the good member has trouble making money with the trend is that there are no trends in it.. the difference between the two markets can be ascertained by use of such things as the serial correaltion coefficient. which for example for the equity index markets for almost all relevant periods and differencing intervals shows such correrelations in the range of -0.03 to -0.12....

Welcome to the threads.

A low serial correlation only means future price is poorly predicted by past price, not that future price is random.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-14-05 11:45 PM:

Quote from Walther:

I can care less about cause, all I care about where will be the next reversal.

Without a model of cause, or its equivalent, there's no way to predict effect.

Whatever other indicators you're using are carrying a heavy load.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-15-05 12:14 AM:

Quote from easyrider:

Thanks. That was one of them. What about the other one. What was your reason for exiting at 1204.50? That was only a .75 pullback from the low. How did you know that was the bottom? You can get your exact time off your account. Fraction of a minute can make a lot of difference.

01:36:24 for the exit. Price Failure from failed Prime Support. The exit was arbitrary because I had a phone call. I should have exited a couple minutes later based on the oscillations which would have put me out around1205.25. I added to the short position for the second trade @ 01:21:48 @ 1205.75.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-15-05 12:16 AM:

Quote from Grob109:

IT DB

May I ask?

IT DB?

Posted by hank rollins on 03-15-05 12:18 AM:

Re: trend

Quote from profturf:

i believe i have an idea why the good member has trouble trading with the trend. the reason is that in most markets, the trends are illusory. wills of the wisps that existed in the past, designed to lure you into losing big by following it with the big money after making with the small. However, in other markets the reason that the good member has trouble making money with the trend is that there are no trends in it.. the difference between the two markets can be ascertained by use of such things as the serial correaltion coefficient. which for example for the equity index markets for almost all relevant periods and differencing intervals shows such correrelations in the range of -0.03 to -0.12 . as this is my first post, let me say i am most impressed with some of the insites on this list which i saw in the course of trying to find out an exact definition for the roll date. i am a humble speculator who likes to count to gain a rudder for my trades. and my handle is in honor of the great professional turf man, robert bacon, who found like one or your insiteful members that just because you make money in baktesting some system, you can't do it in practice... the tie in between turf handicapping and markets.... profturf.

welcome to elite trader, my dear friend. very well said. we are endeavoring to steer our poor, lost proflogic onto testable waters, but he refuses to see the light. despite his intellect, he is trapped in the grand delusion.

perhaps i'll see you wednesday......

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-15-05 12:18 AM:

Quote from ********:

Posting entry or exit is useless unless you post at 12.29: sold at 1208.5
and at 01.36 bought at 1204.50.

1204.50 was the lowest point at the 1 minute charts of the whole day.
Suspicious or at least a "lucky shot".

You need to fix your data. 1203.75 was the low of the day. An that oscillation bottom was confirming a Failure of Prime Support from 1202.50 which confirmed Prime consolidation.

Posted by BlackMonday on 03-15-05 12:19 AM:

Dams people.

Trend is our friend. No reason to fight about it.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-15-05 12:21 AM:

Quote from hank rollins:

all my calls are before the fact. although, calling the market is not my business. i post my trades, since it helps me focus and stick to my system.

Wanna spend a day in here posting trades in realtime harry?

I have Wednesday free.

Posted by Grob109 on 03-15-05 12:35 AM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

May I ask?

IT DB?

Sorry it was a quicky from your chart.

Intermediate Term Double Bottom.

For those who are able to run through several fractals and always keep the various trend channel boundaries on them for short term , intermediate term and long term; it is not too difficult to follow what is going on in each successively tighter channel bounds. Especially if these channels are drawn ASAP and are extended through their expected life expectancy based upon what they depict (ST, IT or LT).

For me it makes it possible to understand that price never "falls off of the edge of the earth". It also gives a flavor of price continuing to try to reach an equilibrium at all times in the context of the (ST, IT and LT) and, as it does, new insults appear and nudge away to the extent of their source's influence. Greenspans are a good examples; superbowls are not.

Whatever your indicator is; it is showing the same pattern as what a double bottom would look like. The slight odd harmonic there is interesting since DB's are nortorious as being biased to even harmonics. Looks like the indicator is going to just touch the upper yellow line for a few of the upcoming days.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-15-05 12:38 AM:

Quote from Grob109:

Sorry it was a quicky from your chart.

Intermediate Term Double Bottom.

For those who are able to run through several fractals and always keep the various trend channel boundaries on them for short term , intermediate term and long term; it is not too difficult to follow what is going on in each successively tighter channel bounds. Especially if these channels are drawn ASAP and are extended through their expected life expectancy based upon what they depict (ST, IT or LT).

For me it makes it possible to understand that price never "falls off of the edge of the earth". It also gives a flavor of price continuing to try to reach an equilibrium at all times in the context of the (ST, IT and LT) and, as it does, new insults appear and nudge away to the extent of their source's influence. Greenspans are a good examples; superbowls are not.

Whatever your indicator is; it is showing the same pattern as what a double bottom would look like. The slight odd harmonic there is interesting since DB's are nortorious as being biased to even harmonics. Looks like the indicator is going to just touch the upper yellow line for a few of the upcoming days.

Thanks Jack

The Double Yellow lines a Prime Resistance & Prime Support levels. Those are the extremes. I use the Ergodic indicator to confirm price tops & bottoms because it doesn't deadhead like the STO or MACD. All oscilllations either between primes or failing primes are conservative trade set-ups based on the trend.

Posted by nzbryant on 03-15-05 12:54 AM:

Jack's long post

Jack

That post on page 52 is worth thousands if read carefully. You are a generous spirit.

Posted by makosgu on 03-15-05 01:04 AM:

Nwb...

Some posts back, several people talked about emotions. Yes YES, I'm a nwb so I understand. I literally took the plunge 2.5 weeks ago. I had only one losing day, the first entirely due to emotions. I debriefed myself right thru the night until I identified the problem and simplified where to look for things. I had one realization on how to catch a trend. Essentially, if I act timely, then I wind up finding myself in the trend and thus only 2 conditions need only apply, either things are changing or continuing. Profitability everyday ever since. On my charts I had to make a visual adjustment so that I could believe what I saw and quiet the chaos somewhat. Check my attachment for visual. I've been told to be a wordy person so I'll try and sum up how I regard finding the trends. Check out the attacment... All 3 tell the same amount of information, one just does it cleaner and all of the trendline rules apply, left, right diagonal, etc... I still haven't worked out congestion but when I'm there, I scratch (for very, very small loss) or wash out.... Check out the PV stuff on the cleanest, it's great.

__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)

DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING

Posted by makosgu on 03-15-05 01:15 AM:

Trend guidelines...

I essentially identify change by looking at the MACD (5/13/6). It is a nearly exact replica of the price movement (ie, it paralles the price movement). If not, like a camera, I refocus the zoom (tick period) until the graph becomes as sharp as possible (scalpers tend to distort images so I limit there vantage to a single tick bar). Once they align, the indicators are synched to the data. The point of change is a derivative thingy. If there's a valley or peak on the macd(5/13/6) blue line, I'm in trend change mode. YES, everyone will probably say, I'm one bar too late. Who cares, there's several bars of profits up ahead. Look at the distance between the peaks and troughs, they are alot greater than the congestion periods. For continuation, I look at macd as it is continuing to head either towards a trough or valley. Throw this in wealthlab and you'll be stunned. Should the blue macd line stop heading towards a valley and change to head to a trough, I check Stoch to see if it's ok to change and if so, I follow allong with this clear change signal. Do this for a couple of days and you will see that your staying with the trend. Not an ace, but racking up the points when they're moving. The Stoch is the overruling item that says, "the asset is trending", stay with the trend until it breaks out of the extremes above/below 80/20. Right there, this will put you on a more rewarding perspective. Work in volume and you're ahead of the beat. It's mind blowing when you see this work for one day.... After 2 days, my emotions were all excitement even in momentary losing positions. Right now, I regard congestion as frequent troughs and valleys within a short period, because I'm new, I just get out of the way. I'm sure there's a way to handle thi$ profitably.

__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)

DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING

Posted by atavachron on 03-15-05 01:46 AM:

Re: Nwb...

Quote from makosgu:

Some posts back, several people talked about emotions. Yes YES, I'm a nwb so I understand. I literally took the plunge 2.5 weeks ago. I had only one losing day, the first entirely due to emotions. I debriefed myself right thru the night until I identified the problem and simplified where to look for things. I had one realization on how to catch a trend. Essentially, if I act timely, then I wind up finding myself in the trend and thus only 2 conditions need only apply, either things are changing or continuing. Profitability everyday ever since. On my charts I had to make a visual adjustment so that I could believe what I saw and quiet the chaos somewhat. Check my attachment for visual. I've been told to be a wordy person so I'll try and sum up how I regard finding the trends. Check out the attacment... All 3 tell the same amount of information, one just does it cleaner and all of the trendline rules apply, left, right diagonal, etc... I still haven't worked out congestion but when I'm there, I scratch (for very, very small loss) or wash out.... Check out the PV stuff on the cleanest, it's great.

Hi makosgu.

Could you please explain the difference between the "Cleanest" and "Cleaner" charts. They both appear to be 125 tick charts of the same security over the same period, yet there are slight differences. Are they due to different data providers (is this possible with QT)?

Just curious.

Thanks.

__________________
"What is common sense, is not necessarily common practice". Tom DeMarco - Peopleware
"Q: Who chooses the martingale measure? A: The market!". Tomas Bjork - Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time

Posted by hank rollins on 03-15-05 01:57 AM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Wanna spend a day in here posting trades in realtime harry?

I have Wednesday free.

my publically posted record, since 2000, speaks for itself.

your one day challenge means nothing in realworld trading.

Posted by makosgu on 03-15-05 02:00 AM:

Re: Re: Nwb...

Quote from atavachron:

Hi makosgu.

Could you please explain the difference between the "Cleanest" and "Cleaner" charts. They both appear to be 125 tick charts of the same security over the same period, yet there are slight differences. Are they due to different data providers (is this possible with QT)?

Just curious.

Thanks.

No Problem. GLAD TO EXPLAIN....

Before I get flamed for these things, I want to say that I noted one thing about indicators. They operate (note I didn't say work) on the last tick of the bar. Truth of the matter is that no individual tick should be regarded so highly when the entire bar is constructed from a whole series of ticks from open to close. To me, I treat each bar like beginning and end of day effects, I want to be unbiased. Sure you can weight them one way or another but who cares when you're continually acting in a timely manner. Ride the trend, if you're trigger happy, ride the trend of a faster tick period (ie 25 ticks/bar). If you google for Heikin-Ashi, he had a neat approach to trick our trading apps to color both price and volume bars (red/green) so as to simplify the visual action. The cleanest chart is just showing the tick bars with the Heikin-Ashi open/close variant. A number of posters may possibly proclaim there's lag, what about scalps, etc... I chose this time frame because there are several huge block orders there that were not optimally executed. As often as I have seen these poorly executed blocks (trades greater than the size of the level 2 tier), it has not once altered the direction of the market. True, liquidity is a huge factor here but why be in something illiquid anyway. In any event, I truly hope this helps. If your on QT, just enable the Heikin-Ashi thigy under chart type, my data feed is IQFeed for all cases. My point is to ease ppl into some visual comfort since I'm certain visual distortion is hindering many to just hit trade. I'm somewhat of a quirky person and new how to remove this hindrance, it did take all night to locate, but I presume it was necessary.

__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)

DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING

Posted by atavachron on 03-15-05 02:07 AM:

Thanks makosgu.

Nope, no flames from me
Always willing to read/hear someone else views and learn something from their experiences.

I wasn't looking at the indicators, I was looking purely at price action.

Heikin Ashi on tick charts? Interesting, I am going to check this out, thanks for sharing. That would explain the difference between the 125tick charts.

Cheers.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-15-05 02:27 AM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

....it doesn't deadhead like the STO or MACD...

Hey, I'm taking a little offense here to the derogatory use of deadhead .

Posted by jsp326 on 03-15-05 02:38 AM:

Can you provide the URL with your track record?

Quote from hank rollins:

my publically posted record, since 2000, speaks for itself.

your one day challenge means nothing in realworld trading.

Posted by nzbryant on 03-15-05 03:06 AM:

Thanks Makosgu for your charts. Do you trade off Heikin -Ashi? A bit generalised is it not?

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-15-05 04:27 AM:

Quote from hank rollins:

my publically posted record, since 2000, speaks for itself.

your one day challenge means nothing in realworld trading.

I don't hear anything . . . what's it saying . . . all I hear is skin flapping in the wind. A realtime challenge isn't realworld . . . you are pathetic.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-15-05 04:28 AM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

Hey, I'm taking a little offense here to the derogatory use of deadhead .

No Garcia offense meant . . . lol

Posted by makosgu on 03-15-05 04:55 AM:

Quote from nzbryant:

Thanks Makosgu for your charts. Do you trade off Heikin -Ashi? A bit generalised is it not?

Absolutely do trade off of them. IMO, there's nothing magical about them nor latent. It just visually fixes my app so that my clumsy brain doesn't panic with visual info I continually scan for since I'm a nwb in every sense of the word. I push 200 shares of GOOG w/o a prob and compound the returns. GOOG is not even a high beta stock which is where one could really get into some killer trend action. OT therer. In any event, the High/Low of the bar is still exactly the same, the only altered data is the open/close which is what traders tend to act at anyway assuming there beating the masses. I presume this is what can make minute charts for some symbols so chaotic. My rationale for fixing my setup was as follow. I was fearfully entering the markets using 5 min charts and getting whipsawed whether trend or no trend, when I debriefed what went wrong, I noticed that I was doubting my reasons for entering because of these darn colors. I knew from reading countless posts that PV had to be evident. So I jumped over to variable time charts as depicted by tick bars. Treated the bars like lenses by zooming in and out (incr/decr num of tick/bar) until my indicators synched, I could also do the reverse (adjust indicator settings until they synch with the data). Now volume trends were working but the bar colors were chaotic, like playing red light green light, and still left me fearful and hesitant. This lead me to believe that open close datapoint itself is being too heavily weighted, so I rectified it with the Heikin-Ashi thing. I only use the Heikin-Ashi thing to clean the screen up. Where does it fail, when you zoom in so close to the T&S action such that one is on a tick execution level. At that point, I believe one only need two things, Level 2 & T&S with bid/ask trade differentiation (accumulation/distribution). I'm not expert on this but where else would one look. I've posted my setup somewhere in the medved thread. But Yes, I do trade using the feature. However, it's only so that I can more easily believe what I see and trade what I believe. When I become more proficient, I'll just disable the colors and the feature and stay on the "cleaner" chart. That's the killer...

__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)

DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING

Posted by makosgu on 03-15-05 06:00 AM:

Correction...

There is a slight adjustment in High/Low values depending on how High/Low information is evaluated by your chart app. However, I haven't noticed any adverse affect on my trading decision points. Note well that those decision points is within the 1 min bars. Timely, NO?

__________________
Kindest Regards,
G33M4K (b]BE[/b]ginner)

DO-UNBIASED & ALL IN & COMPOUNDING

Posted by Cutten on 03-15-05 07:46 AM:

Quote from OldTrader:

How does a "reverse trader" make any money if he doesn't hold for the "trend" following the "reverse"?

OldTrader

He doesn't. All reversal traders make their profits by holding during trends. However, this has nothing to do with trend *following*. Trend followers do not trade the entire trend - rather they trade the part of the trend that occurs *after* the trend has become clear. They then exit *after* it is "obvious" that the trend has ended. It is quite possible that the majority of trends occur before they are obvious, and that reversals before a trend-end becomes obvious are sufficiently large that trying to trend-follow is ultimately marginally profitable, or even loss-making. The idea that because trends exist, following them must inherently be profitable, is one of the most absurd and logically fallacious arguments in the markets

Reversal traders are of the opinion that, once a trend has become clear, the majority of it is likely to have already taken place. Trend-followers think that once a trend is clear, there is plenty more to go, and that they will not then subsequently lose those further profits before identifying that a correction has turned into a reversal. Each is correct at times, neither is correct at all times; in fact, at times both are catastrophically wrong.

Posted by Cutten on 03-15-05 07:59 AM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

My claim for the theory of efficiency is that it applies with reasonable accuracy. Perfection is not required in the present discussion.

Well, from what you have been saying on this thread, you have been attacking trading strategies on the purely theoretical grounds of market efficiency. However, if you accept that markets are not perfectly efficient, then there is NO general theoretical argument whatsoever against any trading strategy at all. Therefore your entirely theory-based claims lose all their validity. You can't say "TA is BS because markets are efficient", then admit markets are not really efficient, and still stick to your claim based on your now-invalidated premise. This is the sort of naive undergrad logically fallacious economically illiterate BS that Malkiel has indulged in for his entire career.

A perfectly efficient market means that no trading strategy can make above average profits. A less than perfectly efficient market (even if it is still 99.99% efficienty) means that *any* strategy at all can, in theory, make superior profits. The assessment of any strategy at all, even financial astrology or dart-throwing, is then taken entirely out of the realm of theory, and becomes purely a matter of assessing the likely edge involved given real world-conditions, versus competition for that edge.

Therefore your entirely theoretical objections to simplistic TA such as trend-following become obsolete. There are no theoretical objections to TA in a less than perfectly efficient market. The only objections are practical - i.e. that the most knowledgeable, well capitalised, and efficient competitors are likely to discover and effectively implement any value-adding TA better than your average trader. But one can then bring in advantages to the smaller trader, such as focusing on secondary markets which are too small for instutitions to bother with, or looking at permanent institutional biases, such as having to cater to the naive biases and errors of their customers (think mutual funds having to sell at the bottom of financial panics due to investor withdrawals, even though the fund manager might be a raging bull). It now becomes a matter of empirical testing - theoretical arguments become nothing more than suggestions for where one might test most productively.

Posted by Walther on 03-15-05 01:46 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

Without a model of cause, or its equivalent, there's no way to predict effect.

Cause is a price action by itself not what caused price movement .
Based solely on charted price action there are many ways one can forecast reversals on any time frame and any volatile market .

Posted by hank rollins on 03-15-05 02:09 PM:

Quote from Cutten:

He doesn't. All reversal traders make their profits by holding during trends. However, this has nothing to do with trend *following*. Trend followers do not trade the entire trend - rather they trade the part of the trend that occurs *after* the trend has become clear. They then exit *after* it is "obvious" that the trend has ended. It is quite possible that the majority of trends occur before they are obvious, and that reversals before a trend-end becomes obvious are sufficiently large that trying to trend-follow is ultimately marginally profitable, or even loss-making. The idea that because trends exist, following them must inherently be profitable, is one of the most absurd and logically fallacious arguments in the markets

Reversal traders are of the opinion that, once a trend has become clear, the majority of it is likely to have already taken place. Trend-followers think that once a trend is clear, there is plenty more to go, and that they will not then subsequently lose those further profits before identifying that a correction has turned into a reversal. Each is correct at times, neither is correct at all times; in fact, at times both are catastrophically wrong.

well said.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-15-05 02:14 PM:

Quotes from Jack:

As always, huge thanks.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-15-05 03:02 PM:

Quote from Cutten:

Well, from what you have been saying on this thread, you have been attacking trading strategies on the purely theoretical grounds of market efficiency. However, if you accept that markets are not perfectly efficient, then there is NO general theoretical argument whatsoever against any trading strategy at all. Therefore your entirely theory-based claims lose all their validity. You can't say "TA is BS because markets are efficient", then admit markets are not really efficient, and still stick to your claim based on your now-invalidated premise. This is the sort of naive undergrad logically fallacious economically illiterate BS that Malkiel has indulged in for his entire career.

A perfectly efficient market means that no trading strategy can make above average profits. A less than perfectly efficient market (even if it is still 99.99% efficienty) means that *any* strategy at all can, in theory, make superior profits. The assessment of any strategy at all, even financial astrology or dart-throwing, is then taken entirely out of the realm of theory, and becomes purely a matter of assessing the likely edge involved given real world-conditions, versus competition for that edge.

Therefore your entirely theoretical objections to simplistic TA such as trend-following become obsolete. There are no theoretical objections to TA in a less than perfectly efficient market. The only objections are practical - i.e. that the most knowledgeable, well capitalised, and efficient competitors are likely to discover and effectively implement any value-adding TA better than your average trader. But one can then bring in advantages to the smaller trader, such as focusing on secondary markets which are too small for instutitions to bother with, or looking at permanent institutional biases, such as having to cater to the naive biases and errors of their customers (think mutual funds having to sell at the bottom of financial panics due to investor withdrawals, even though the fund manager might be a raging bull). It now becomes a matter of empirical testing - theoretical arguments become nothing more than suggestions for where one might test most productively.

It doesn't accomplish much for you to put so much weight on an argument about the imperfection of efficiency theory.

No model has "perfection" on either side, regarding the functioning of the market or one's method of approach.

It's a red herring issue that no serious model builder would worry about.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-15-05 03:14 PM:

Quote from Walther:

Cause is a price action by itself not what caused price movement .

If you're trying to put over that price causes itself, that argument was finished off handily by profturf who pointed out the very low serial correlation of price.

Posted by nononsense on 03-15-05 03:15 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Thanks Jack

Tweedledee & Tweedledum

Posted by Jungathart on 03-15-05 03:23 PM:

Schamp the scamp

Quote from ProfLogic:
The only new Subscribers given access will be on a referral basis from a current Subscriber or a verified college or graduate school educator.

I don't have customers. I teach and love what I do. say.

Well it turns out that all you really need to do is come up with $300 to get in. You had me going there for awhile Prof.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-15-05 03:46 PM:

Quote from nononsense:

Tweedledee & Tweedledum

Jest. Ah but critic not, what ye not understand, my respected friend.

Posted by Walther on 03-15-05 04:20 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

If you're trying to put over that price causes itself, that argument was finished off handily by profturf who pointed out the very low serial correlation of price.

Well, I have tried to to tell you how it really works in real trading environment.
Good luck to you.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-15-05 04:35 PM:

Quote from Walther:

Well, I have tried to to tell you how it really works in real trading environment.
Good luck to you.

That's fine, yet we both know that in a "real trading environment," 19 out of 20 traders blow up.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-15-05 05:08 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

That's fine, yet we both know that in a "real trading environment," 19 out of 20 traders blow up.

Which is really scary if they privatize Social Security. Where will all the retired politicians get their free retirement money from when people lose all their SS money? :-)

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-15-05 05:25 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Which is really scary if they privatize Social Security. Where will all the retired politicians get their free retirement money from when people lose all their SS money? :-)

The privatization could cause another Wall Street bubble, though that's only a temporary solution.

Posted by nononsense on 03-15-05 05:41 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Which is really scary if they privatize Social Security. Where will all the retired politicians get their free retirement money from when people lose all their SS money? :-)

Didn't you know? It's like "the Trend".

Politicians don't reckon with SS for their own retirement money.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-15-05 05:46 PM:

Quote from nononsense:

Politicians don't reckon with SS for their own retirement money.

Hummm, I was under the impression that all retired congressmen & senators drew from the Social Security fund, even though they don't pay a penny into it. At least that is what the GAO states.

Posted by nononsense on 03-15-05 05:56 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

Hummm, I was under the impression that all retired congressmen & senators drew from the Social Security fund, even though they don't pay a penny into it. At least that is what the GAO states.

I thought I read their main coverage is through private plans???

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-15-05 06:03 PM:

Quote from nononsense:

I thought I read their main coverage is through private plans???

I would be interested if someone knows for sure to post it. I would ask my daughter, she would know for sure, but she's on vacation.

Posted by PoundTheRock on 03-15-05 06:12 PM:

Quote from Dell-Boy:

Trade what you SEE not what you THINK

If I couldn't trade what I thought, then I couldn't trade what I see.

Posted by jsp326 on 03-15-05 06:30 PM:

Hank,
Just checking once again...where's the website with your real-time track record? Thanks.

Quote from jsp326:

Can you provide the URL with your track record?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from hank rollins:

my publically posted record, since 2000, speaks for itself.

your one day challenge means nothing in realworld trading.

Posted by nononsense on 03-15-05 06:42 PM:

Quote from jsp326:

Hank,
Are you going to give the website or other source of your real-time track record? Just checking once again...

jsp,

Your question is certainly not unreasonable but goes squarely against the etiquette and traditions of our cherished ET.

Be good,
nononsense

Posted by jsp326 on 03-15-05 06:56 PM:

Quote from nononsense:

jsp,

Your question is certainly not unreasonable but goes squarely against the etiquette and traditions of our cherished ET.

Be good,
nononsense

I see.. I guess it could be considered free advertising?

Maybe he'll PM me with the info. I'm not interested in being a subscriber/customer of his, I was just curious.

But when you turn down a challenge and say your track record speaks for itself...knowing you can't provide your track record b/c of the board's etiquette...hmmm, I guess it just doesn't impress me. But maybe he's some famous trader/money manager (hiding under the alias of a singer??) and I'm the only one here who doesn't know his real identity...

I'd still like to see him take on ProfLogic's challenge, though.

Posted by tattoo on 03-15-05 06:57 PM:

maybe you can't trade because your wasting all your time posting here

Posted by MAESTRO on 03-15-05 07:06 PM:

With-the-trend techniques are by far more difficult psychologically to follow compare to counter trend ones. The simple reason is: you have to be enormously discipline to take, let's say, 15 small loses on a row to capture one good trade that would pay for all of your efforts. It is very easy to nibble 1 - 2 ticks trading counter trend following any kind of oscillator rather then keep on taking it in the chin. Although with-the-trend trading is by far more difficult it is, also, by far more rewarding due to the "fat tails" that seem to pop up everywhere these days.

Posted by profturf on 03-15-05 07:27 PM:

trends

a member points to the fat tails that crop up all over these days. "'ER ,-------- Have you tested that ". There has not been a decline or rise of more than 2% in the s and p in last 2 years. The implied volatility stands steady as a stone wall at 11% . And the main exponent and player of fat tails has taken a " sabbatical from trading " amid presumably drastic losses since he stopped reporting results after a swoonful period at the very market bottom. Are you sure that the evidence, both practical and empirical of the past 2 years is not consistent with narrow tails? Recall that a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1%, ( about the empirical stand dev of most markets including equity futures, ), 5% of the observations will exceed + or - 2% and and 1 % of the observations, or 5 every two years will exceed 2.5 %. Perhaps this is the calm before the storm. ? profturf

Posted by PitchBlack on 03-15-05 07:31 PM:

Quote from MAESTRO:

With-the-trend techniques are by far more difficult psychologically to follow compare to counter trend ones. The simple reason is: you have to be enormously discipline to take, let's say, 15 small loses on a row to capture one good trade that would pay for all of your efforts. It is very easy to nibble 1 - 2 ticks trading counter trend following any kind of oscillator rather then keep on taking it in the chin. Although with-the-trend trading is by far more difficult it is, also, by far more rewarding due to the "fat tails" that seem to pop up everywhere these days.

With-the-trend techniques are by far more difficult because you need to have a system. Nibble 1-2 ticks has more to do with gambling, it has nothing at all to do with trading.
Trendfollowers need a vision.
The difficulty grows exponentially with the lenght of time that your in a trade. If you stay in for 1 hour you need to know what the direction is. I have daytrades that last sometimes 3-4 hours or even longer before i get out. I wonder what a scalper would do if he had to stay in 3-4 hours. His account would probably be wiped out in a few days.
I think one becomes a scalper because he's not able to make big rides on the trend.
A trendfollower doesn't have to take 15 small loses for every good trade.

Posted by Equalizer on 03-15-05 07:46 PM:

Quote from tattoo:

maybe you can't trade because your wasting all your time posting here

LOL

Posted by forex_king on 03-15-05 08:19 PM:

Signals for trends

Even the best signals warrant a risk and money management strategy....I know for a fact no matter how great this chart looks(60 min time frame) a person will lose on a constant basis.

__________________
You lose = I win

.......it's a zero sum game......

Just an evangelist for trading truth.

Posted by Equalizer on 03-15-05 08:22 PM:

Re: Signals for trends

Quote from forex_king:

Even the best signals warrant a risk and money management strategy....I know for a fact no matter how great this chart looks(60 min time frame) a person will lose on a constant basis.

Even more so in bucketshop Spot FX me thinks (as per the chart)

Posted by nononsense on 03-15-05 08:30 PM:

Re: Signals for trends

Quote from forex_king:

Even the best signals warrant a risk and money management strategy....I know for a fact no matter how great this chart looks(60 min time frame) a person will lose on a constant basis.

You must have been trying to catch "the Trend". MM is not a good enough parachute to save you from those "best signals".

You lose = I win

Posted by forex_king on 03-15-05 08:31 PM:

Re: Re: Signals for trends

Quote from Equalizer:

Even more so in bucketshop Spot FX me thinks (as per the chart)

I like programming indicators on this platform, but I totally agree with you on the bucket shop reference....

__________________
You lose = I win

.......it's a zero sum game......

Just an evangelist for trading truth.

Posted by Equalizer on 03-15-05 08:34 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Signals for trends

Quote from forex_king:

I like programming indicators on this platform, but I totally agree with you on the bucket shop reference....

No probs forex_king, I wasn't having a dig at your firm, being a Futures firm - no problemo with FX Futures.

Its just that when it comes to non-interbank Spot-FX, the concept of broker-derived "dealable" prices has always "intrigued" me...

But we digress...

Posted by PitchBlack on 03-15-05 08:40 PM:

It's NOT a zero sum game, it's a negative sum game.

Never copy things, that others say, without thinking.

They both pay commissions and the difference between the bid and the ask has to be paid also.

Posted by forex_king on 03-15-05 09:14 PM:

Re: Re: Signals for trends

Quote from nononsense:

You must have been trying to catch "the Trend". MM is not a good enough parachute to save you from those "best signals".

You lose = I win

What a stupid smug idiot, you will never understand....go pump your whore ideas some where else.

__________________
You lose = I win

.......it's a zero sum game......

Just an evangelist for trading truth.

Posted by nononsense on 03-15-05 09:17 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Signals for trends

Quote from forex_king:
Even the best signals warrant a risk and money management strategy....I know for a fact no matter how great this chart looks(60 min time frame) a person will lose on a constant basis.
Attachment: eur-gbp.gif

Quote from forex_king:
What a stupid smug idiot, you will never understand....go pump your whore ideas some where else.

These ideas are yours, not mine.
You lose = I win

Posted by hank rollins on 03-15-05 09:19 PM:

Quote from PoundTheRock:

If I couldn't trade what I thought, then I couldn't trade what I see.

LOL ! correctomundo, mr. rock. ONLY TRADE WHAT YOU THINK---- NEVER EVER EVER trade what you SEE without serious testing.

Posted by forex_king on 03-15-05 09:20 PM:

Quote from ********:

It's NOT a zero sum game, it's a negative sum game.

Never copy things, that others say, without thinking.

They both pay commissions and the difference between the bid and the ask has to be paid also.

I guess you will never ever learn how to trade. Only some one who doesnt know like yourself will talk out of your other hole. Before I take a trade I already know how much I will lose....including commissions. Tell me since you are a pro do you use optimal F or position-sizing according to volatility.....or do you just make a educated guess on the chart....what a tool

__________________
You lose = I win

.......it's a zero sum game......

Just an evangelist for trading truth.

Posted by hank rollins on 03-15-05 09:21 PM:

Quote from jsp326:

Hank,
Just checking once again...where's the website with your real-time track record? Thanks.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from hank rollins:

my publically posted record, since 2000, speaks for itself.

your one day challenge means nothing in realworld trading.

my calls have been posted since 2000 on www.clearstation.com, www.elitetrader.com and another site as well.

Posted by nkhoi on 03-15-05 09:21 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Signals for trends

Quote from forex_king:

forex_king
Global Futures Exchange
& Trading Company

Registered: Nov 2004

What a stupid smug idiot, you will never understand....go pump your whore ideas some where else.

a fine example of what to expect when you shop for broker.

Posted by forex_king on 03-15-05 09:22 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Signals for trends

Quote from nononsense:

These ideas are yours, not mine.
You lose = I win

Tell me what are my ideas nonsense....quit smelling your behind...the sun is sunny on the other side.

__________________
You lose = I win

.......it's a zero sum game......

Just an evangelist for trading truth.

Posted by forex_king on 03-15-05 09:25 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Signals for trends

Quote from nkhoi:

a fine example of what to expect when you shop for broker.

Who cares...if you can't make your mind on how you trade, don't blame your loses on a third party...I don't pull the trigger you do....

__________________
You lose = I win

.......it's a zero sum game......

Just an evangelist for trading truth.

Posted by profturf on 03-15-05 09:32 PM:

trends

gentlemen: You have many good ideas and this is an emotional subject. But please try to maintain a dignified mien as bathroom language and personal invective makes people who wish to improve themselves feel low and degraded, loses many potential contirubuters who seek a higher plane, and generally leads to a much worse educatio .. I am a newbie from a perspective that can perhaps see things from the grandstand., and that is why I reach out to request a reasonable affabillity and benefit of doubt. thanks. profturf.

Posted by nkhoi on 03-15-05 09:44 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Signals for trends

Quote from forex_king:

Who cares.......

I DO BUT I GET YOU POINT

Posted by PitchBlack on 03-15-05 09:52 PM:

Forex King,

even if you calculate the commission in, it still is a negative sum game. Probably you don't understand that.

Secondly, your attitude is not as it should be. You're aggressive towards others without a reason. You mix up discussion with insulting people.

Third, i copied a few statements from you. I'm client at Global Futures and will maybe come and visit you and a colleague of you at the firm.

Posted by PitchBlack on 03-15-05 09:54 PM:

Does a trend exist?

I added a chart to show what I think.
It is part of my system. I show just enough to prove my point of view.
My system trades in 4 timeframes with in each timeframe 3 subgraphs. ( 1 is shown the others not). Each subgraph contains several indicators. The interpretation of the indicators in the subgraphs vary, depending of the kind of trend I that I can mesure.

These charts show the trade of today.

What do we see on these charts?
� 60 minute chart: gives a sell signal at the yellow arrow ( 7.30). For this strength of trend this combination of the three indicators is valid ( combined with indicators in another subgraph that you don�t see).
� 15 minutes chart: we check the hourly signal and get a confirmation at 8.00 hours where the yellow arrow stands. ( combined with indicators in another subgraph that you don�t see).
� 3 minutes chart: we look for the first entry point that we can find.. At 8.18 we get the entry point at 1215.50. ( combined with indicators in another subgraph that you don�t see).

How long do we have to stay in the trade? As long as necessary to take the maximum move. This means that you have to know in advance how far the trend will go.
When we entered the trade it was already clear that we had to stay in till the close of the bar numbered 1. This decision is calculated but not shown.
When we reached point 1 a new calculation told me to stay in till point 2.
When we reached point 2 the calculation gave an exit at the close of the day.
So, sold at 1215.50 and bought at 1202.25.

So does a trend exist?
I don�t know, but I know that there are things that exist but are denied by the majority of the traders. Why? Because they don�t know of the existence of these things, and therefore by simplicity they assume that it doesn�t exist because they don�t know about their existence.

Posted by forex_king on 03-15-05 10:03 PM:

Quote from ********:

Forex King,

even if you calculate the commission in, it still is a negative sum game. Probably you don't understand that.

Secondly, your attitude is not as it should be. You're aggressive towards others without a reason. You mix up discussion with insulting people.

Third, i copied a few statements from you. I'm client at Global Futures and will maybe come and visit you and a colleague of you at the firm.

Can I take you out to lunch. Call me and we can set up an appointment.

__________________
You lose = I win

.......it's a zero sum game......

Just an evangelist for trading truth.

Posted by Cariocas on 03-15-05 10:30 PM:

here's a blog
I came across.... it seems the blogger is consistent )12% return per month??)... he might be one of the posters on ET... would like to know if this blog belongs to anyone here... thanks....

Cariocas

Posted by hank rollins on 03-15-05 10:40 PM:

even the heroes can't seem to do it...... trend follow

http://www.ljmfund.com/content/PDFs...Jan_31_2005.pdf

don't feel so bad that you cant follow the trend--the great john henry--hero to trend followers the world over reported a -2.89 % return, a sharpe ration of -.11 ( abysmal !) and a drawdown of 40.2%. if mr. henry CAN"T FIND THE TREND.... how do you expect to ?

wake up friends !

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-16-05 12:29 AM:

[QUOTE]Quote from hank rollins:

even the heroes can't seem to do it...... trend follow

http://www.ljmfund.com/content/PDFs...Jan_31_2005.pdf

don't feel so bad that you cant follow the trend--the great john henry--hero to trend followers the world over reported a -2.89 % return, a sharpe ration of -.11 ( abysmal !) and a drawdown of 40.2%. if mr. henry CAN"T FIND THE TREND.... how do you expect to ?

wake up friends ! [/QUOTE

Hank aka marketsurfer,

give it a rest.

ACE Investment Strategists (+- $28 Million under management) do a decent job following the trend.

32.48% - 2004 Return
7.78% - Worst drowdown in 2004
55.75% - Compound 3 yr return
3.24 - Sharp ratio
168.08% - Best 12 month period

Posted by nzbryant on 03-16-05 12:30 AM:

Why are people getting so angry? Look at yourselves.

Posted by Lefty62151 on 03-16-05 12:43 AM:

Wow:
This thread is really one of the most illuminating I have ever read anywhere as it relates to the problems that folks have learning to trade.

If you were going to try to trade, and you were capable of abstract thought, alarm bells would be going off as you read about the many ways people have found to lose money.

Another interesting point (for me anyway) is that there have been several posts that offer viable ways to "find" trend. Also, several posters have offered accurate comments as to the other issues that affect success once you find the trend you want to trade.

Recently I have heard some good (profitable) traders suggest that no matter how well you define trend and a method for trading it, you still have to manage the trade and get out with a profit. For me, this was the cornerstone of my progress, and once I "got it", I was profitable within a week.

I am sorry to hear of all the problems getting there. I hope someone or a few of you at least, will go back through this and some of the recent threads and find the clues that have been left you. From my point of view the answers are there in print.

Good luck,
Lefty

Posted by Equalizer on 03-16-05 12:51 AM:

Quote from nzbryant:

Why are people getting so angry? Look at yourselves.

Well stated nz.

If you read this massive thread in its entirety you will realise that most people are actually very well behaved - they might disagree but do NOT feel the need to belittle others or their views, and perhaps offer constructive criticism. Which is what these forums are all about.

I don't care if you use Quantum mechanics or look at the stars to trade. If you make money who am I to argue with your approach.

The stupid arguments remind me of religious fundamentalist fanatics - bereft of rational thought.

What you will find is that most of the crap on this thread is due to very few "in-duh-viduals" who have a crapload of posts to their name, yet all they do is attempt to belittle anyone else's views if in disagreement with theirs, and quite frankly have hardly ever offered anything that can be seen as constructive.

With that sort of mentality - not to mention textbook Cluster-B personality disorder traits - these guys must be real trading legends in their own little lunchboxes.

Lighten up and respect others. If some of you acted this way at a pub or nightclub, you'd get the crapola kicked out of you post haste. Its not rocket science...

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-16-05 01:06 AM:

Quote from Lefty62151:

Wow:
This thread is really one of the most illuminating I have ever read anywhere as it relates to the problems that folks have learning to trade.

Recently I have heard some good (profitable) traders suggest that no matter how well you define trend and a method for trading it, you still have to manage the trade and get out with a profit. For me, this was the cornerstone of my progress, and once I "got it", I was profitable within a week.

Well stated. Whatever method you trade, without money management all is lost.

Posted by hank rollins on 03-16-05 01:41 AM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

[QUOTE]Quote from hank rollins:

even the heroes can't seem to do it...... trend follow

http://www.ljmfund.com/content/PDFs...Jan_31_2005.pdf

don't feel so bad that you cant follow the trend--the great john henry--hero to trend followers the world over reported a -2.89 % return, a sharpe ration of -.11 ( abysmal !) and a drawdown of 40.2%. if mr. henry CAN"T FIND THE TREND.... how do you expect to ?

wake up friends ! [/QUOTE

Hank aka marketsurfer,

give it a rest.

ACE Investment Strategists (+- $28 Million under management) do a decent job following the trend.

32.48% - 2004 Return
7.78% - Worst drowdown in 2004
55.75% - Compound 3 yr return
3.24 - Sharp ratio
168.08% - Best 12 month period

sure professor. when trend following funds are succesful it's usually in a big way--- no argument here.

however, you can't point at one or two, or three big money funds that are currently experiencing success and say "look, trend following works".

AND--i will grant you, that i shouldn't point at a drawdown in one of the famous funds and make my statement---your point is taken-- stimulating discussing and ideas is my object--it's how i learn and improve myself.

please tell me one statistical test that can be applied to trends that indicates that the results of trend trading are any different than than random results. OR even statistically show that a trend even exists from commonly used tools in this field. any studies i have EVER seen clearly indicate that trend is illusionary.

thank you

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-16-05 02:14 AM:

Quote from hank rollins:

... show that a trend even exists from commonly used tools in this field. any studies i have EVER seen clearly indicate that trend is illusionary.

thank you

That's easy enough. The lack of a trend in a market that moves, is a physical improbability, ms.

dD / dt is the measure.

geometrically: y = mx + b where m provides the same as above.

There's also calculus versions.

With do respect to all, I find it hard to understand what the argument is.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-16-05 03:01 AM:

Quote from hank rollins:

please tell me one statistical test that can be applied to trends that indicates that the results of trend trading are any different than than random results. OR even statistically show that a trend even exists from commonly used tools in this field. any studies i have EVER seen clearly indicate that trend is illusionary.

thank you

I can't tell you of any statistical test because I doubt any exist. It has taken me almost 10 years to build mine. With the average attention span of a statistician being 2 weeks (I'm exaggerating) I doubt whether a model will ever be created by one.

Logisticians make jokes about statisticians. We say liars figure and figures lie.

I can't show you that trends exist using any commonly used tools for the same reason as I listed above. Hank, over the last 10 years this environment has changed drastically. Not in the way the market reacts but now with the technology we all possess we can study and see more of the price action and it nuances than ever before. Partially because the ranges have greatly expanded. We are able to study, up close and personal things we never saw 10 years ago. Look, the atom was a myth at one time and so was the electron, neutron and proton. There was a time when researchers talked about them and others thought they were crazy. So I'm a loon and loving every minute of it!

Posted by manzoor on 03-16-05 03:06 AM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

If a "trend" does not extend over a minimum range of price, then it can't be distinguished from background noise.

Agree.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-16-05 03:38 AM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

If a "trend" does not extend over a minimum range of price, then it can't be distinguished from background noise.

No jab intended Nickel. I just thought about a funny response to this and this thread needs a little humor.

If the water doesn't extend over ones toes, then it's quite hard to practice the back stroke . . . so find more water. Oh, I agree with your statement too.

Posted by manzoor on 03-16-05 03:50 AM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

I can't tell you of any statistical test because I doubt any exist. It has taken me almost 10 years to build mine. With the average attention span of a statistician being 2 weeks (I'm exaggerating) I doubt whether a model will ever be created by one.

Logisticians make jokes about statisticians. We say liars figure and figures lie.

I can't show you that trends exist using any commonly used tools for the same reason as I listed above. Hank, over the last 10 years this environment has changed drastically. Not in the way the market reacts but now with the technology we all possess we can study and see more of the price action and it nuances than ever before. Partially because the ranges have greatly expanded. We are able to study, up close and personal things we never saw 10 years ago. Look, the atom was a myth at one time and so was the electron, neutron and proton. There was a time when researchers talked about them and others thought they were crazy. So I'm a loon and loving every minute of it!

Trend exits when the big fishes enter with their contracts. Rest of the time price moves between support and resistance. In the beginning all price actions look same from s/r and triangles. So, no one can predict where price is moving. So, you take educated guess with game theory and pray that it goes your way.

I agree there are nuances to recognize trend correctly, and you can master it with experience. Strictly discretionary traders can do that with times, computerized traders cannot. Its called instinct.

Posted by OddTrader on 03-16-05 04:31 AM:

Quote from manzoor:

..., computerized traders cannot.

Looks like you must be an expert in computerised/ automated trading for quite some time to recognise that. Are you so sure?

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner

Posted by nononsense on 03-16-05 08:04 AM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

That's easy enough. The lack of a trend in a market that moves, is a physical improbability, ms.

dD / dt is the measure.

geometrically: y = mx + b where m provides the same as above.

There's also calculus versions.

With do respect to all, I find it hard to understand what the argument is.

Hi ktm,

You are right if you start from the a priori assumption that "the Trend" (for markets) is a well defined mathematical entity. No need to talk about improbability, physical or not. It suffices to write down an expression for it. Nobody did this I believe.

You could perhaps say that "the Trend" is a moving average, specifying the kind and its parameter(s). In fact you would very close where you wanted to go with the above. Nobody dared to do this up till know, because people might say that he "doesn't know how to trade." Keeping "trend finding" in the "star gazing" domain is generally thought to be more respectable.

In the meantime, nononsense will keep laughing at "the Trend", especially at the truly crazy and pompous stuff. (ktm, I don't put you in this category)

nononsense

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-16-05 11:54 AM:

I'd like to continue with the statement, but the current prototype- i'm near finishing, beckons my attention. I'm anxious to complete it. Should go well... Structure is well enough crystalline. Shooting for next week.

cia
Ktm'r

Quote from nononsense:

Hi ktm,

You are right if you start from the a priori assumption that "the Trend" (for markets) is a well defined mathematical entity. No need to talk about improbability, physical or not. It suffices to write down an expression for it. Nobody did this I believe.

You could perhaps say that "the Trend" is a moving average, specifying the kind and its parameter(s). In fact you would very close where you wanted to go with the above. Nobody dared to do this up till know, because people might say that he "doesn't know how to trade." Keeping "trend finding" in the "star gazing" domain is generally thought to be more respectable.

In the meantime, nononsense will keep laughing at "the Trend", especially at the truly crazy and pompous stuff. (ktm, I don't put you in this category)

nononsense

Posted by hank rollins on 03-16-05 12:35 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

I can't tell you of any statistical test because I doubt any exist. It has taken me almost 10 years to build mine. With the average attention span of a statistician being 2 weeks (I'm exaggerating) I doubt whether a model will ever be created by one.

Logisticians make jokes about statisticians. We say liars figure and figures lie.

I can't show you that trends exist using any commonly used tools for the same reason as I listed above. Hank, over the last 10 years this environment has changed drastically. Not in the way the market reacts but now with the technology we all possess we can study and see more of the price action and it nuances than ever before. Partially because the ranges have greatly expanded. We are able to study, up close and personal things we never saw 10 years ago. Look, the atom was a myth at one time and so was the electron, neutron and proton. There was a time when researchers talked about them and others thought they were crazy. So I'm a loon and loving every minute of it!

thank you for sharing your system.

best wishes for the future,

hank

Posted by hank rollins on 03-16-05 12:39 PM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

That's easy enough. The lack of a trend in a market that moves, is a physical improbability, ms.

dD / dt is the measure.

geometrically: y = mx + b where m provides the same as above.

There's also calculus versions.

With do respect to all, I find it hard to understand what the argument is.

thank you for the formulation. i'll pass your post along to one of my more erudite colleagues for comment.

best wishes !!

__________________
open up the borders to the river running green, cause i've got tranches full of dollars to trade for gasoline.......

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-16-05 12:48 PM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

I'd like to continue with the statement, but the current prototype- i'm near finishing, beckons my attention. I'm anxious to complete it. Should go well... Structure is well enough crystalline. Shooting for next week.

cia
Ktm'r

I've got to add... with a laugh...a sincere Thanks to all, for all the inspiration.

Posted by Flashboy on 03-16-05 08:23 PM:

Well.. I obviously haven't learned my lesson..

Went long 4 times today...

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-16-05 08:25 PM:

Quote from Flashboy:

Well.. I obviously haven't learned my lesson..

Went long 4 times today...

See if this helps.

since 3 pm yesterday. LH - LL - LH - LL - LH - LL - LH - LL

I really think your problem is that you are trying to catch that long term move from a long term botom or top without any set parameters to guide yourself.

Posted by Flashboy on 03-16-05 08:38 PM:

My rules actually call for not going long unless we are at support.. which today we were not..

Why I'm not following those rules is a psychological problem

Why I didn't look to get short today.. as my rules call for it.. psychological problem..

I pay close attention to LL's ..HH's.. my rules are supposed to account for those things..

problem today was .. started out with a short after the 9:45 est bar closed.. which didn't fail.. but market temporarily went up..never exceeding today's RTH's high.. but at that point.. after my short didn't work out.. something kicked in making me think we were definitely eventually going to go higher..

Its becoming more and more obvious to me that I just can't seem to do this.. and I've said that many times here before.. I"m at a loss..

Posted by AAAintheBeltway on 03-16-05 08:46 PM:

Quote from Flashboy:

My rules actually call for not going long unless we are at support.. which today we were not..

Why I'm not following those rules is a psychological problem

Why I didn't look to get short today.. as my rules call for it.. psychological problem..

I pay close attention to LL's ..HH's.. my rules are supposed to account for those things..

problem today was .. started out with a short after the 9:45 est bar closed.. which didn't fail.. but market temporarily went up..never exceeding today's RTH's high.. but at that point.. after my short didn't work out.. something kicked in making me think we were definitely eventually going to go higher..

Its becoming more and more obvious to me that I just can't seem to do this.. and I've said that many times here before.. I"m at a loss..

Why don't you try cutting back on your size to the point that you really don't care if you're right or wrong. Just concentrate on following your rules.

Posted by Lefty62151 on 03-16-05 08:53 PM:

Fear of loss.

There are two ways to handle it. First, simulator, Second small size.

Before you start, get your act together

You need to have a decent system edge and rules that fit your personality. You also have to come to terms with the reality that you may not be suited to trading. You may need to find something else to do. In your place, I would resolve to give it everything I had, knowing that at some point (you draw a line in the sand), I would have to make the decision to stop.

there are many good simulators. Try ButtonTrader.
You can use it to overcome the fear of pulling the trigger and to work the kinks out of your position sizing and money management system (You do have one right?)

Once you have practiced and you have some idea of what to expect from your system, you should trade small size, not to make money, but to desensitize yourself (you have become phobic about this). You want to enter and exit a number of times and see for yourself that you can handle it without trauma. You need to learn to handle spikes, news, and even breakdowns.

During this time, you should be adding to your account size, so that when you do trade "for real", you are not undercapitalized. This is the one thing that traders insist on doing that always kills them. Don't trade undercapitalized.

If you approach the work in a methodical way, you will be successful. If not, you will surely lose whatever money you have to trade. From my point of view you need to put it on the line and find out who you are. A while back, a coach named John Wooden said something about sports that applies to trading as well. "People think that competitive sports builds character, it doesn't. Competitive sport reveals character. You have it, or you don't".
You may want to find out where you stand sooner rather than later.
Good luck,
Lefty

Posted by Killmenow on 03-16-05 09:06 PM:

After a couple of years in fx, i still don't get it :
1) In forex most of traders says these who writes books , can't trade by themselves. And we don't like them, calling them in a bad words. While in university or at school, we have to respect our teachers. It's one of the most respectful professions.
2) If we say books are almost useless in trading, than what about math, physics, biology books , why do we have to study from them, and we do not obtain by our selves all axiom, Pythagoras formulas . All formulas (in other fields) are several hundred years old , and we still use them.
3)why trading is so much uncorrelated with other fields?

Posted by nzbryant on 03-16-05 10:19 PM:

Quote from hank rollins:

i'll pass your post along to one of my more erudite colleagues for comment.

Aren't you managing people's money? Very disturbing if you dont know basic math and have to pass it along

Posted by easyrider on 03-17-05 12:10 PM:

Quote from nzbryant:

Aren't you managing people's money? Very disturbing if you dont know basic math and have to pass it along

Its called delegation of duties. Pretty common in the corporate world.

We had a recent example who built a huge fortune and didnt know anything about accounting.

Posted by Lefty62151 on 03-17-05 01:23 PM:

Yep, you're right, the guy (Bernie Ebbers) kept track of the number of toilet tissue rolls and whether people bought pizza on his tab, but never did get the hang of that gosh darn complicated accounting. Shucks.

Posted by easyrider on 03-17-05 01:30 PM:

Yep. He was just a country boy who got bamboozled by them city slickers. Damn shame.

Posted by hank rollins on 03-18-05 12:22 AM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

That's easy enough. The lack of a trend in a market that moves, is a physical improbability, ms.

dD / dt is the measure.

geometrically: y = mx + b where m provides the same as above.

There's also calculus versions.

With do respect to all, I find it hard to understand what the argument is.

i don't believe your formulations are applicable to the issue at hand.

applying basic statistical measures like the serial correlation coefficient or the goodman independent time series test to most any market series, a trend is not in evidence--even in those cases were a MA indicates trending behavior. the tests show randomness in the data regardless of a "visual" illusionary trend.

You can either apply the accepted tests to the market data, or continue to believe whatever you wish.

I would love to see any data that refutes the above--- it would sure make my life easier

best wishes,

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-18-05 01:28 AM:

Quote from hank rollins:

i don't believe your formulations are applicable to the issue at hand.

applying basic statistical measures like the serial correlation coefficient or the goodman independent time series test to most any market series, a trend is not in evidence--even in those cases were a MA indicates trending behavior. the tests show randomness in the data regardless of a "visual" illusionary trend.

You can either apply the accepted tests to the market data, or continue to believe whatever you wish.

I would love to see any data that refutes the above--- it would sure make my life easier
best wishes,

Hi hank,

What were the data vars you tested? Were they the right vars for determining "trend". I guess, one first needs to ask themselves exactly what it is they need to measure. Is the var applicable. What, if any, multivariate conditions exist. Which of them are essential (primary). Which are redundant or previously influenced. IMO, establish the primary.

Was your data continuous, or discrete ...by (those silly) "bars"?

Was the scattered distribution skewed... clustered... were there outliers... was it at all non-linear... etc. If you encountered any of these conditions, the correlation coefficient maybe irrelevant.

The measure I gave is correct, amongst other applicable versions. Calculating statistics though...correctly, is tricky. And believe me, I'm only a studying practioner.

One of my recent posts (probability thread) links to a good stats learning program for wrapping one's mind around stats, if anyone's interested.

Ktm'r

Posted by hank rollins on 03-18-05 01:32 AM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

Hi hank,

What were the data vars you tested? Were they the right vars for determining "trend". I guess, one first needs to ask themselves exactly what it is they need to measure. Is the var applicable. What, if any, multivariate conditions exist. Which of them are essential (primary). Which are redundant or previously influenced. IMO, establish the primary.

Was your data continuous, or discrete ...by those silly "bars"?

Was the scattered distribution skewed... clustered... were there outliers... was it at all non-linear... etc. If you encountered any of these conditions, the correlation coefficient maybe irrelevant.

The measure I gave is correct, amongst other applicable versions. Calculating statistics correctly is tricky. And believe me, I'm only a studying practioner.

One of my recent posts (probability thread) links to a good stats learning program for wrapping ones mind around stats, if anyone's interested.

Ktm'r

thanks. i'll reply shortly.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-18-05 03:14 PM:

There are two variables here: price and time.

A formula like y = mx + b simply describes the graph, using x and y axes, of a straight line in terms of the y (e.g. price) for each x (e.g. time). The constant m is the slope (or "trend") of this line.

The expression "dy/dx" refers to the slope of a curve at a point, which some "trend traders" might find suggestive when looking at their charts.

In the TA under consideration, price action is a discrete series, dependent on one variable, without serial correlation.

Posted by Hombre on 03-18-05 03:44 PM:

Quote from hank rollins:

even in those cases were a MA indicates trending behavior. the tests show randomness in the data regardless of a "visual" illusionary trend.

LOL those must be some tests !

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-18-05 03:45 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

...There are two variables here: price and time....

Price...why price. Is price primary or influenced? Might be something to consider...?

Things that make you go ...hmmm.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-18-05 04:24 PM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

Is price primary or influenced?

The problem for the TA we're discussing is that price is all that's available.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-18-05 04:31 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

The problem for the TA we're discussing is that price is all that's available.

oh.

Posted by NickelScalper on 03-18-05 07:01 PM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

oh.

The reason trendies run into trouble is that they look at price as dependent only on time.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-18-05 07:12 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

The reason trendies run into trouble is that they look at price as dependent only on time.

I'm amazed when someone that believes so strongly that trends do not have any value in trading puts themselves out as knowing what lurks in the minds of those that do.

Price is perfect and not dependent on anything. Markets are traded in transactions (contracts, calls, puts or shares) not time.

Posted by ktmexc20 on 03-18-05 07:47 PM:

Quote from ProfLogic:

...Price is perfect and not dependent on anything. Markets are traded in transactions (contracts, calls, puts or shares) not time.

Hi Prof,

Respectfully disagree! Price (as in: change in price) is a by-product. The effect of the cause...so to speak. Kind of like all that nasty CO emitted from gas guzzlers.

I know... you were baiting me,lol.

Posted by ProfLogic on 03-18-05 07:50 PM:

Quote from ktmexc20:

Hi Prof,

Respectfully disagree! Price (as in: change in price) is a by-product. The effect of the cause...so to speak. Kind of like the CO emitted from gas guzzlers.

I agree with (change in price).

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-30-05 12:40 PM:

Quote from PoundTheRock:

If I couldn't trade what I thought, then I couldn't trade what I see.

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-30-05 12:42 PM:

When you make a call that drags in 30-35 points,Then you can take the piss out of my comments

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by Everest on 03-30-05 01:19 PM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

The reason trendies run into trouble is that they look at price as dependent only on time.

Bollocks.

Posted by Dell-Boy on 03-30-05 02:05 PM:

Quote from ********:

As daytrader i look for the trend on 60 minutes charts; look for entry points on 15 minutes charts; and fine tune on 3 minutes charts.

I don't scalp, i try to take the maximum ride. Today short at 1217 (ES june 2005) and still short. The profit is in the big moves, not in the scalps.

Good call spike , I went short at 1216 ,H/S on 60 chart with a down slope was good confirmation to get in early on the move,I use 60 ,10, 5,

__________________
Its All Mind Over Matter (I Dont Mind And It Really Does Not Matter)

Posted by Cutten on 03-30-05 11:41 PM:

Quote from hank rollins:

i don't believe your formulations are applicable to the issue at hand.

applying basic statistical measures like the serial correlation coefficient or the goodman independent time series test to most any market series, a trend is not in evidence--even in those cases were a MA indicates trending behavior. the tests show randomness in the data regardless of a "visual" illusionary trend.

You can either apply the accepted tests to the market data, or continue to believe whatever you wish.

I would love to see any data that refutes the above--- it would sure make my life easier
best wishes,

Hello Hank. Can you take a look at the price action of the Tokyo Stock Exchange 2nd section Index from early 2003 onwards. By my definition there were two clear trends there - can you examine the data and see if they would qualify under your tests?

Posted by Cutten on 04-01-05 07:48 AM:

Quote from NickelScalper:

My claim for the theory of efficiency is that it applies with reasonable accuracy. Perfection is not required in the present discussion.

There is no such thing as "reasonably accurate" efficiency. 99.9% efficiency is inefficiency, since the state has changed from one where profit is impossible (100% efficiency) to one where profit is possible (<100% efficiency).

Your claim is like saying someone is "almost a virgin".

Posted by kiwi_trader on 04-01-05 08:10 AM:

or "a little bit pregnant" ?

Posted by WilliamV on 05-28-05 03:05 PM:

Thank you

I throughly enjoyed reading every single post in this thread and I'm fascinated by the entire discussion.

I've come away with the following preliminary conclusions: Need to give more weight to volume in determining trend strength or it's reversal and not using it alone but with other factors. Time is also extremely important. Adaptive MA's could help point the way.

When something is in motion, it tends to stay in motion, at which a point comes when last majority crowd on the ride causes an opposite reaction. Trends do exist and when they are present they affect future price action, increasing it's predictability.

I think the major difference that exists between the approaches presented here is detecting the shift in trend the quickest, increasing return.

Posted by j1900q on 05-29-05 07:00 PM:

it is ok to trade against the trend. Just know be quick in and quick out. Take small gains, and never trade without a stop. If you do trade against the trend, sell where everybody else is selling. For me, es, overnight high, high of yest, high of last week, or obvious support resistance areas. For buys of course, do just the opposite. Have a great day.
Keith

Posted by easyrider on 05-29-05 07:08 PM:

In my opinion countertrend trading is an advanced art. Beginners should trade only with the trend and a strong one at that. Trading with the trend is much more forgiving of bad entries. This will also teach you the fine art of sitting on your hands.

edit: Obviously these are not my ideas, but things taught to me that I am passing on as I found them to be true.

Posted by nononsense on 05-29-05 07:08 PM:

Re: Thank you

Quote from WilliamV:

...

I've come away with the following preliminary conclusions: Need to give more weight to volume in determining trend strength or it's reversal and not using it alone but with other factors. Time is also extremely important. Adaptive MA's could help point the way.

etc& ...

Yeah,
Try putting some of your money on it. Don't forget to write us a postcard on how you're doing.

Posted by ikx on 05-29-05 09:06 PM:

I am reading every single post in this thread and I never hear
a single word of ACF function, correlation of time series;a random series coud have trend form too, so?
The only thing is to use statistic tests, the rest are only an art
very expensive!!!
my opinion of course.............

Posted by jerry11901 on 05-31-05 03:03 AM:

Star

Flashboy
-your threads are most interesting, you are the star on ET�

__________________
I think I can I think I can I think I can...

Posted by WilliamV on 05-31-05 04:34 AM:

Re: Re: Thank you

Quote from nononsense:

Yeah,
Try putting some of your money on it. Don't forget to write us a postcard on how you're doing.

That's the plan. Will you settle for more posts?

Posted by Hydroblunt on 05-31-05 04:41 AM:

Re: Star

Quote from jerry11901:

Flashboy
-your threads are most interesting, you are the star on ET�

LOL, he is the perpetual underdog that you can't help but root for.

__________________
Whenever a trader thinks his trade is 100% right, he is 110% wrong

Posted by Flashboy on 05-31-05 04:04 PM:

Re: Star

Quote from jerry11901:

Flashboy
-your threads are most interesting, you are the star on ET�

If this is a serious compliment .. Thank you..

Hydroblunt has it right though.. but maybe that'll change in time..

Posted by boe on 05-17-11 09:06 PM:

why cant you trade with the trend ?

the reason 99.99% of traders can not win or trade with the trend,
counter trend trade , or trade break outs, false breakouts, etc.

what if i told you the truth? could you handle it? there is always some armature trader pretending to be a successful pro that will
try and argue with me. saying they know better. the fact is they
are getting there knowledge of the market the same place you are
the web. so how can they say with confidence they know anything at all.

heres what the market reality is take or leave it.

1. the market is manipulated on a daily basis! it is designed to
trap with trend traders, break out traders, fibs trader, gann traders
harmonic traders, pivot traders, price action traders, trend line traders, moving averages, and indicator systems traders, swing traders, scalpers, even stop hunting traders.

why is past history show correct analysis if this is true?

2. 99.99% of traders do not back test with the reality of the right side charts in mind ( when back testing)

3. all of the above methods work but at a low percentage.

4. learning how traders get trapped and learning the tricks is a daunting task, but it is the only way to succeed. it takes years.

5. finally i have to say their is no other way!!! period!!!

Posted by fullautotrading on 05-24-11 11:00 PM:

Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from Flashboy:

Every trend day or period like the last 3 days I always have trouble trading with the trend.

I'm always looking for that turning point so I can hop on for the big score..

I most likely need to work on my plan for trading with the trend.. and force myself to do it until I become more comfortable..

Anyone else have this problem?

Trend is just an optical illusion. Once you realize that, you will see the whole mkt in a unified view.
After all, a cockroach climbing a stone laid on a downhill slope, will think to be riding a trend ;-))

Tom

Posted by athlonmank8 on 05-24-11 11:34 PM:

Price action

Posted by wunasdaq on 09-05-11 09:37 AM:

I shall begin by placing the first stone......

STEP 1 THE TREND

- Determine if there is a MEANINGFUL TREND present

There are two types.

The meaningful ones:

Downtrend = lower highs, lower lows
Uptrend = higher highs, higher lows

The ones you should ignore (for now) because they require greater
skill to consistently profit from or
simply, the sideway ones:

Congestion/Indecision = higher lows, lower highs (Symmetric Triangle
formations)
Consolidation = horizontal lows/highs

As you get more experienced you can profit off consolidation by fading
support/resistance but for now, stick only to
the meaningful trends.

Again, as you get more experienced you can profit off symmetric
triangles (HL LH) because they tend to give birth
to POWERFUL new trends but for now I would rather you stick to the
meaningful trends.

Posted by Ghost of Cutten on 09-05-11 09:57 AM:

Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from Flashboy:

Every trend day or period like the last 3 days I always have trouble trading with the trend.

I'm always looking for that turning point so I can hop on for the big score..

I most likely need to work on my plan for trading with the trend.. and force myself to do it until I become more comfortable..

Anyone else have this problem?

Like most trading-related problems, the solution is fairly straightforward:

1. Analyse all your trade decisions, each time you make one.
2. Decide what mistakes you made.
3. Work out the causes of those mistakes.
4. Figure out a way to avoid the causes occurring again.
5. Design and use implementation methods that ensure the causes/mistakes do not occur again.

For your error, it sounds like a pre-exit checklist with a question asking "Is there a trend in place? If so, do not exit until a genuine reversal signal has been given" would help.

Then, you just have to follow your "don't exit a trend until a true exit signal has been given" rule. If you can't follow it, you will keep screwing up until eventually the repeated lost profits get so annoyingly large that your psychology will change and your discipline will improve. Stick at it.

Posted by bigb on 09-05-11 10:31 AM:

You guys realize your responding to comments made 6 years ago? Everyone has different ideas of trend trading. All about your style.

Posted by kut2k2 on 09-05-11 02:12 PM:

Quote from bigb:

You guys realize your responding to comments made 6 years ago? Everyone has different ideas of trend trading. All about your style.

It's especially funny when you realize that this thread was started by a counter-trender. He was trying to pick tops and bottoms, an act of hubris, foolishness and/or desperation no matter how you slice it.

In order to trade with the trend, first you have to find the trend. When I see stuff like "higher highs and lower lows", my eyes glaze over. By the time you can draw a decent "trendline" (whatever the $&#* that is), the trend is pretty much exhausted, unless you're in a bull or bear market. The real key is find the short trends as early as possible and ride them to the end. Nobody is going to reveal an indicator that does that.

Posted by austinp on 09-05-11 02:27 PM:

Quote from kut2k2:

...The real key is find the short trends as early as possible and ride them to the end. Nobody is going to reveal an indicator that does that.

not true on two counts

#1: Revealing any true indicator or solid method approach never diminishes its effectiveness one iota, not one smidgeon, not one drop. The idea that someone's "edge" can be negated by public revelation is just an oft-repeated fallacy.

#2: Trend-following indicators exist, they are effective and they can be part of a true cash-collecting machine. BUT the operator of that machine MUST be able to overcome their strong instinct = desire to fade the indicator and counter-trend trade.

Buying into a decline or selling into a rally are the stronger human tendencies than following a known, trusted trend filter tool. So basic human nature itself protects any true trend-following tools or methods by human flawed design

Posted by wunasdaq on 09-06-11 05:33 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from hank rollins:

think about it.... you never know when the "trend" is going to end, and what part of the "trend" you entered the trade in. if you have a winning trade...you can say---i caught the trend, i am with the trend. a losing trade, obviously you are not with the trend. you only KNOW for sure about the trend after you enter the trade and the trend is directly related to your success in the trade or lack there of.

You are right, man always select a beautiful chart and tell us how to use trend make money in hindsights

Posted by Buy1Sell2 on 09-06-11 01:12 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Quote from wunasdaq:

man always select a beautiful chart and tell us how to use trend make money in hindsights

FALSE

Posted by HATEtheRisk on 09-06-11 01:28 PM:

If you cant trade with the trend, then trade against it.

Posted by syswizard on 09-06-11 02:36 PM:

Quote from HATEtheRisk:

If you cant trade with the trend, then trade against it.

Exactly. Countertrend trading strats proven to be more profitable for intraday trading.

__________________
"Success in the markets runs counter to everything we have been taught...and if you want a friend on Wall Street, get a dog"

Posted by Buy1Sell2 on 09-06-11 03:20 PM:

Quote from syswizard:

Countertrend trading strats proven to be more profitable for intraday trading.

FALSE

Posted by kut2k2 on 09-06-11 07:44 PM:

Quote from austinp:

Revealing any true indicator or solid method approach never diminishes its effectiveness one iota, not one smidgeon, not one drop. The idea that someone's "edge" can be negated by public revelation is just an oft-repeated fallacy.

I can't wait to see the evidence you have to support this claim. What's that? You don't have any? Yeah, I figured.

Posted by HATEtheRisk on 09-07-11 01:52 AM:

Quote from kut2k2:

I can't wait to see the evidence you have to support this claim. What's that? You don't have any? Yeah, I figured.

We will never see any evidence, no sane person will ever share their master trading techniques with the public. Never.
Its about money, man, you understand, mothafucking money.

Kill all the proffessors. Randomness sucks.

Posted by SteveH on 09-07-11 02:16 PM:

Quote from austinp:

not true on two counts

#1: Revealing any true indicator or solid method approach never diminishes its effectiveness one iota, not one smidgeon, not one drop. The idea that someone's "edge" can be negated by public revelation is just an oft-repeated fallacy.

#2: Trend-following indicators exist, they are effective and they can be part of a true cash-collecting machine. BUT the operator of that machine MUST be able to overcome their strong instinct = desire to fade the indicator and counter-trend trade.

Buying into a decline or selling into a rally are the stronger human tendencies than following a known, trusted trend filter tool. So basic human nature itself protects any true trend-following tools or methods by human flawed design

What an honor it is to have you break away from your busy schedule of charging $2497 a head for your "in-depth" trading seminar to do some pro-bono work here. Job well done!

To answer the thread starter's question:

Charge $2497 a head for trading seminars...and you won't have to trade in the first place!

Posted by murray t turtle on 09-07-11 10:04 PM:

Quote from bigb:

You guys realize your responding to comments made 6 years ago? Everyone has different ideas of trend trading.

=========
The longer the trend the better

, BigB

As far as the gentlemen writing most daytraders trade countertrend;
that would mean going long in a bear market

Sure

Another 6 or 7 year helpful suggestion,to op;
keep records of many trades, going long in a bear trend [downtrend.]

__________________
murray t turtle,nickname,not an alias

Posted by virtualmoney on 09-07-11 11:52 PM:

A more interesting question here would be "Is it more profitable to just Hold with the trend (solely on daily chart) Or trade with the trend (say trade in/out based on 4hr chart but Only in direction of daily chart)?"
Maybe the more experienced traders can explain their views based on P/L, equity curve.

Posted by HATEtheRisk on 09-08-11 12:23 AM:

Quote from virtualmoney:

A more interesting question here would be "Is it more profitable to just Hold with the trend (solely on daily chart) Or trade with the trend (say trade in/out based on 4hr chart but Only in direction of daily chart)?"
Maybe the more experienced traders can explain their views based on P/L, equity curve.

Hi,

you ve answered your question by yourself.
Of course it is more profitable to do more trades in a specific time, than just one. Trade the trend moves + the counter trend moves,
trend moves gives you more profits rearding to risk/win ratio, but counter trend trades are still extremely profitable.
And the other factor is, you can always leverage up your risk + win, by your growing trading capital. --- Than just have one trade all the time in the major trend direction. You should that do too, beside that shorter time trades stuff.

Combination of styles is the answer, be independent so you can change your positions when ever you want.

Besides that, there is not only 1 product to trade, you can choose form all the beautiful markets, and buy and sell, how you think its best for growing your capital, depending on the time factor - "How long do you want to wait, to make this or that sum of money" !!!
Plan the trade & trade the plan

Greetings

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