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Posted by Nana Trader on 01-04-05 09:17 PM:

Average Pips move profit per day in FX Markets

I want to know what you think is average Pips profit (move)
per day that is fairly reasonable to look for, say EUR/USD?

I am talking about number of pips (move) that you can catch
on average in a single day, we don't count how many regular
lote do you play, so that is not counted. It's just how much of
a move that you catched?

http://www.mortysill.biz/index1.htm
Click on the "The Deal" from dropdown menu on left side.
Look at what this guy is explaining? Is he saying that
catching a 20 pips per day is a lot to achieve?


Posted by Andy62279 on 01-04-05 09:47 PM:

what I think is a reasonable profitable trade??

I think 20-100 pip trades (profit not unrealized gain) can be achieved consistently, but not everyday of course. I'm not trading euro this year, but the pound instead.... but I am currently trailing the pound with 210+ pip profit since last night. Since the pound and euro are pretty much in sync right now, the same trade on the euro would be about the same profit as well.

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by Andy62279 on 01-04-05 09:53 PM:

btw, I don't know what exactly you meant by a "single day." If you meant average profitable trade that can be made everyday then I don't know. If you meant average profitable trade that can be made in a 24 hour period then that is the question that I answered.

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by Nana Trader on 01-04-05 09:56 PM:


Quote from Andy62279:

what I think is a reasonable profitable trade??

I think 20-100 pip trades (profit not unrealized gain) can be achieved consistently, but not everyday of course.



Thanks and i know it varies from day to day. Some day you
lose, another day you win bigger, what after a month you
average out with certain profit amount per trade?, or some
look at positive expectancy, like expectancy of 0.20 means
you made $1.20 for every $1 you risked

My question is what does average profitable trader
should expect, average move for realized profit per
day after one month?


Posted by Andy62279 on 01-04-05 10:27 PM:

oh ok... Well on average which includes those profitable and unprofitable months... I think 300 pips per month... or 15 pip per day can be achieved imo

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by NickBarings on 01-04-05 10:46 PM:

Average range for EUR/USD is about 100 pips a day

so making 15 pips or 15 % of the range sounds realistic.


Posted by Maxprofit$ on 01-07-05 09:53 PM:

You can even say 30 pips is acheivable.

5 pips is a good benchmark for scalps. (need low spread of course)

15 pips is a nice healty profit you want to keep.

30 pips can be done during morning or afternoon and is a good target if you use some sort of trailing stop to lock-in profits. You will get stopped more often than not but i say you need to try it.

50 pips is a fu#$% good trade, but not all that uncommon. Often takes the whole day or holding position overnight to get there. Once you're there you should seriously cash-in.

75-100 pips or more is an intra-week swing. And with the relatively large stop loss point you must take, over-leveraging can get you killed, so i don't see the point of these trades.

Anything more than that is long term investment.

I'm talking for pairs like EUR/USD or USD/CAD for these typical moves. JPY seems to move more.

__________________
Having no system as a system
Having no way as way


Posted by Dave Floyd on 01-07-05 10:09 PM:

Good responses from Andy and Nick regarding pips/day. My experience has been, and verified by colleagues on the spot desks at Goldman and Bear that scalping FX, especially at a non-instituional level is next to impossible (yes I am sure some do it, we do not need to get into an argument), but my attempts at it early on were fruitless after having successfully scalped stocks for 10-years.

Andy indicates 300 pips a month, I think that is an honest and reasonable answer and reflects what my performance has been.

To me, FX is more of a way to leverage investment returns, not a trading/income vehicle.

Just my 2 euros!

__________________
Dave Floyd
Aspen Trading Group


Posted by Andy62279 on 01-08-05 01:32 AM:


Quote from Maxprofit$:


75-100 pips or more is an intra-week swing. And with the relatively large stop loss point you must take, over-leveraging can get you killed, so i don't see the point of these trades.



Actually, I sort of disagree. 100+ pip trades can be done in a 24hr period. Monday I shorted the pound for 223 pip profit... that trade was 15 hrs long. Not all are winners of course. Also had -28 pip, -24 pip loss, and today was breakeven trade.

When I first got interested in trading I wanted to be a scalper, but I realized I'm just too lazy to do that sort of work. Where I lack in laziness I have to make up in patience though.

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by swoop[TR] on 01-08-05 03:00 AM:

You know... I think it really is pointless to set yourself a goal such as making x pips a day... What if one day you make 15 pips in the first hour of trading... you get out and the market keeps going and going and you could have made 100 pips that day. Are you seriously going to take your 15 pips and come back tomorrow and say...ok let's do 15 again today?

What I'm saying is, you will know your average pip per day/trade AFTER the fact. Not before. You can set yourself objectives but I don't think you should or even can for that matter systemically make that average per day. IT's just not logical and probably not a sound trading plan.

Every trade is different. That is not a secret but it is very much overlooked. Even in systematic trading...every trade has its own little characteristics.

__________________
Swoop


Posted by Andy62279 on 01-08-05 03:15 AM:

Swoop,

I agree with you, but I think Nana considers average pip per day for analysis purposes.... like some would use expectancy for analysis purposes.

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by fandelem on 01-08-05 05:31 AM:


Quote from Andy62279:

Actually, I sort of disagree. 100+ pip trades can be done in a 24hr period. Monday I shorted the pound for 223 pip profit... that trade was 15 hrs long. Not all are winners of course. Also had -28 pip, -24 pip loss, and today was breakeven trade.

When I first got interested in trading I wanted to be a scalper, but I realized I'm just too lazy to do that sort of work. Where I lack in laziness I have to make up in patience though.



With your 100+ trades .. what is your stop limit typically? What about on scalps?


Posted by Andy62279 on 01-08-05 06:20 AM:


Quote from fandelem:

With your 100+ trades .. what is your stop limit typically? What about on scalps?



my stops can range anwyhere from 20-80 pips.... on average it is 45 pips. With 65% accuracy, and average reward/risk ratio of 3. Anywhere from 1-2 dozen trades per month. Remember, pound is a bit more volatile than euro.

If I were to trade the euro my risks would be a bit less (my guess around average of 30), but it would also make less money.

When I did my backtesting from 2002 to the end of 2003 my max consecutive drawdown was 5. In 2004 volatility increased and my max consecutive drawdown actually doubled to 10, but at the same time my profitability was much greater. 2005... I have no clue what it's going to be. If I follow my rules I give myself the chance for my edge to work.

I shorted pound 2.5 hrs before the news release, and I move my stop to breakeven when I have 30+ unrealized gain. I got stopped out at b/e then price proceeded in my direction. I had no reason to short again, and I had to let the market go. This can be traumatizing... actually it used to be traumatizing to me. I just had to understand to let the math (edge) work its course, and not force profits to come my way.

I'm mechanical though. What I do is very boring. That's why I like to learn new setups and try to make those ideas work. Actually, it can be quite frustrating sometimes, haha. That just shows my immaturity as a trader though. Anyways, trying to make my ideas into profitable system is very exciting to me. Btw, I don't scalp. I think when I am more advanced and more experienced I will try some scalping technique.

I agree with Dave. Scalping can be close to impossible. If you are making mistakes... lets say 5-10% of the trades are mistakes, multiply that amount by the high frequency of trades scalps generate... that can be quite damaging to the account. I think scalpers need very reliable method in order to make money consistently. Besides, we are not pit traders... we don't have their edge.

With all the increased spamming here, I don't mean to sound like an informercial. I can't reveal anymore of what I do. I put in the hours to make this idea work, and I'm not even going to sell it. I like to read what's going on here. I work at home and I have no co-worker. ET is a community to me. I find that a lot of people are lost and unsure of what they're doing. I am revealing this information so maybe some of you may question yourself... just as I have to myself. I am by all means no expert or guru. Some people have scolded me here for my lack of understanding of the market. We are all human and all students in this game.

cheers,
Andy

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by kiwi_trader on 01-08-05 07:36 AM:

I would agree with maxprofit.

I was going for 12 and 30 point trades with a 4-7 point stop when I was trading euro last year. This reflected the european morning sessions swings but would also be appropriate in the US morning session.

If I had moved to 30 min bars I think I would have looked for 50-100 pt moves.

Currently given it up for the HSI because the hours are more convenient. Still like the way the currencies move though and will go back if I change time zones or develop more stamina


Posted by emolina on 01-08-05 11:28 AM:

+100 pips

I agree with Andy that 100 plus pips gain can be achieved in less time. I trade the GBP/USD pair and I set my TP to 105 pips. Most of these profitable trades are achieved just between 4 to 8 hours. Regarding my stops, my maximum stop is 35 pips.


Posted by TradingWise on 01-08-05 11:49 AM:

Andy,

Do you use indicators for your system? Or is it a system based on trendlines, support and resistance?


Posted by Andy62279 on 01-08-05 01:32 PM:


Quote from TradingWise:

Andy,

Do you use indicators for your system? Or is it a system based on trendlines, support and resistance?



I use barchart, macd, and another indicator for my exit strategy... and no to your other questions. I wanted to try using ATR's for exit strategy but I'm too lazy to calculate things.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&threadid=40343
this is a good thread. It doesn't really pertain to your question, but I like the way dbphoenix thinks. He asks some very good questions that traders should ask themselves.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&threadid=29005
DP uses trendlines, and maybe this thread gives you some ideas. I don't use any of his ideas, but I just like the way this guy thinks. There is no bullshit in this guy. He's straight to the point in my opinion.

There is no secret weapon really. I have the same psychological vulnerabilities as everyone. I have the same indicators on my charts that are available to everyone. I have the same books everyone else has in their personal library. A lot of the tools out there work. It's just a matter of finding a tool that you like, and learning how to use that tool correctly. There is no grail... that's it.

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by JanaSergeevna on 01-15-05 01:45 PM:

IMHO making a steady and reliable average of 20 pips per day off any one specific instrument is pretty difficult and an excellent result. In some senses the number of pips per day that you can make is actually less important than the reliability, though. An average of (say) 400 pips per month (about 20 per trading day) is not so clever if it conceals a 500-pip drawdown, and it will require totally different money management from a system which produces something in the range of -20 to +60 pips per day (which might also average out at +20). IMHO many traders do not adequately take the variability into account in working out their position-sizing. This subject is well discussed in the books "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom" by Van K. Tharp and "Beyond Technical Analysis" by Tushar S. Chande. But how many traders start risking their money without reading these books or something equivalent, and/or without understand the concept?

__________________
Jana Sergeevna


Posted by Andy62279 on 01-16-05 12:35 AM:


Quote from JanaSergeevna:

....An average of (say) 400 pips per month (about 20 per trading day) is not so clever if it conceals a 500-pip drawdown....



no, not clever at all.

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by JanaSergeevna on 01-16-05 01:14 AM:


Quote from Andy62279:no, not clever at all.
But sadly this is often the case. People sometimes tell me about signalling services which have independently verified results over many months showing a few hundred pips per month of profit, but you need to look carefully at every trade made, remembering that the biggest drawdown is the one yet-to-arrive, and see what's really going on, working out the variability very accurately before leaping in with your desired position-sizing which might kill you off at some point.

__________________
Jana Sergeevna


Posted by Andy62279 on 01-16-05 01:34 AM:


Quote from JanaSergeevna:

But sadly this is often the case. People sometimes tell me about signalling services which have independently verified results over many months showing a few hundred pips per month of profit, but you need to look carefully at every trade made, remembering that the biggest drawdown is the one yet-to-arrive, and see what's really going on, working out the variability very accurately before leaping in with your desired position-sizing which might kill you off at some point.



I never used signaling services, so I can't say...

Thats the problem with money management. Too aggressive MM can result in higher drawdowns, or account being wiped out. MM and the method should accomodate each other.

IMO... a less reliable method making 400 pips average per month isn't as good as a reliable method making 200 pips on average. Less reliable methods cannot take advantage of money management, where as a reliable method can take advantage of money management. Proper money management can produce very good performance... but a reliable method is required.

I'm sure there are different ways of looking at this, but this is the way I look at it though

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by JanaSergeevna on 01-16-05 02:09 AM:


Quote from Andy62279: IMO... a less reliable method making 400 pips average per month isn't as good as a reliable method making 200 pips on average. Less reliable methods cannot take advantage of money management
Yes, I completely agree. I would far rather make half as many pips with twice the reliability (or half the variability, if you want to put it that way). One can always increase one's stake size. At the end of the day, it's not "pips" that you pay into the bank to cover all your bills.

__________________
Jana Sergeevna


Posted by Andy62279 on 01-16-05 02:21 AM:


Quote from JanaSergeevna:

Yes, I completely agree. I would far rather make half as many pips with twice the reliability (or half the variability, if you want to put it that way). One can always increase one's stake size. At the end of the day, it's not "pips" that you pay into the bank to cover all your bills.



Yes, that's what I meant to say. Besides, I only have so much hair to lose. I have changed to a more reliable method this year. The balding process has slowed down.... but it's only time when genetics kick in and take the rest

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by LoosenUp on 01-16-05 03:43 AM:


Quote from Dave Floyd:

Good responses from Andy and Nick regarding pips/day. My experience has been, and verified by colleagues on the spot desks at Goldman and Bear that scalping FX, especially at a non-instituional level is next to impossible (yes I am sure some do it, we do not need to get into an argument), but my attempts at it early on were fruitless after having successfully scalped stocks for 10-years.

Andy indicates 300 pips a month, I think that is an honest and reasonable answer and reflects what my performance has been.

To me, FX is more of a way to leverage investment returns, not a trading/income vehicle.

Just my 2 euros!



300 pips a month on average means a yearly gain of about 3600 pips. That would be about $36,000 gain per annum per 100k contract. My question is how much capital do you allocate to trade one 100k contract? Assuming you use a leverage of 1:10, are you then expecting a consistent yearly average return of 360%? Even if you use a leverage of 1:5, your return will still be 180% per annum. Since FX is a very liquid market and it is possible to get the same result using substantial size, that will put you in the elitest of the elites.

I am interested in finding from the successful forex traders here what kind of returns that they think they can reasonably achieve, assuming a leverage of 1:10, i.e using 10k yo trade 1 100 k contract.


Posted by Andy62279 on 01-16-05 04:56 AM:


Quote from LoosenUp:



I am interested in finding from the successful forex traders here what kind of returns that they think they can reasonably achieve, assuming a leverage of 1:10, i.e using 10k yo trade 1 100 k contract.



an even better question is to ask what type of return you think is achievable and developing a plan to get there.

or work backwards... pick a method, setup, or whatever and develop rules so that idea can make the most ticks possible. Then develop a money management that can take full advantage of the performance of your method, then you can see what type of returns are possible.

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by onelotlarry on 01-16-05 11:01 PM:

Last week I booked 17 trades.....12 wins....5 losses for 142 pips on the week trading one lot....I was happy although I left a lot of money on the table due to evercaution....(and reliving some of my past disasters).....another six months of getting it right and I will move to bigger lot sizes....but to me it is as important to develope a wining record of profitable small wins as it is to hit the odd very elusive homerun. Nearly all URO/USD


Posted by Andy62279 on 01-16-05 11:27 PM:

well done larry

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by JanaSergeevna on 01-17-05 02:23 AM:


Quote from LoosenUp:300 pips a month on average means a yearly gain of about 3600 pips. That would be about $36,000 gain per annum per 100k contract. My question is how much capital do you allocate to trade one 100k contract? Assuming you use a leverage of 1:10, are you then expecting a consistent yearly average return of 360%? Even if you use a leverage of 1:5, your return will still be 180% per annum. Since FX is a very liquid market and it is possible to get the same result using substantial size, that will put you in the elitest of the elites.
I am interested in finding from the successful forex traders here what kind of returns that they think they can reasonably achieve, assuming a leverage of 1:10, i.e using 10k yo trade 1 100 k contract.

I understand of course that your question is to Andy and not to me, but it gives me the opportunity (if nobody minds) to ask about this "leverage". I do all my FX trades by spread-betting (because I live now in the UK and spread-betting returns are completely tax-free) and don't use "direct access" so I don't understand "leverage". To me, 300 pips per month is £3,000, at £10 per point. To open a spread-betting position of £10 per pip with a 25-pip stop-loss, for example, I must have in my account at that time a minimum of £250, that is all. Can someone explain how this equates with the leverage of a direct access trade using a broker such as Oanda or whoever? Apologies if I am asking in the wrong thread!

__________________
Jana Sergeevna


Posted by Andy62279 on 01-17-05 03:05 AM:

leverage

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/leverage.asp

Leverage
What does it Mean? 1. The use of various financial instruments or borrowed capital, such as margin, to increase the potential return of an investment.

2. The amount of debt used to finance a firms assets. A firm with significantly more debt than equity is considered to be highly leveraged.

Investopedia Says...
1. Leverage can be created through options, futures, margin, and other financial instruments. Leverage increases one's risk.

For example, $1000 could be invested in 10 shares of Microsoft stock, but to increase leverage, $1000 could also be invested in, say, 5 options contracts to increase one's control to 500 shares.
------------------------------

Leverage is basically being able to do more with less. I use 100:1 leverage. So 100 pips is equal to $1,000 USD. There are some fx dealers that offer 400:1 leverage. So 100 pip is equal to $4,000 USD. It won't take many losing trades to wipe out an account using 400:1 leverage. Some people think of the same thing about 100:1 leverage. If you have large enough beginning balance, and starting with a minimum of 1 lot, as I am, then it really doesn't hurt the account that much.

If someone is using 50% of their equity for margin.... 5 lots from a 10K account, it'll only take 200 pips to get wiped out. Not much room for error. There's a balancing act IMO. Use as much leverage as possible to make the most... but small enough where your system can encounter a large drawdown without taking a chunk out of your account.

Money Management is the most important part of a system. It can turn an average system into a very profitable system, or turn a very good system into a losing venture.

There's no shame in 1 lot. Due to my capital and system's performance, 1 lot is where I'm supposed to begin. I just have to let the system work it's course and let it make money reliably. Then once my account reaches a point where Money Management starts kicking in... that's like the turbo spoolin up and slamming fuel into the engine. It's good stuff. But if you use too much boost (leverage) you can blow your motor

As far as the prior post about % returns. I just started trading this new system at the beginning of the new year, but as far as the performance I have recorded from testing... your estimates sound about right, but you have not included the performance of money management.

I didn't want to answer your question because I don't think it has much importance. If I told you 100% return, or 1,000% returns were possible. What would you do with that information? There is nothing you can get out of it. To know that it's possible? There are books and articles that prove such endeavors. You don't need confirmation from some stranger posting at a forum. A better question is to ask yourself how can you make 100% or 1,000% returns consistently. You will find more constructive results with that thinking, imo.

Andy

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by JanaSergeevna on 01-17-05 12:57 PM:

Thanks very much for your helpful explanation, Andy. I have an account with FXCM which I have never learned to use properly, I really must try their demo account and familiarise myself with the details. To someone used to spread-betting it's not at all easy to work out quickly (for example) what position-size in dollars equates to a spread-bet of £10 per pip on the EUR/JPY. I suspect that for people used to direct access dealing (who, unlike me, have to pay tax on their annual profits) find this sort of thing very easy to work out. Suppose I will get used to it eventually. (Sometimes I want to do a trade which my spread-betting firm does not have available, so I must master this somehow!).

__________________
Jana Sergeevna


Posted by Andy62279 on 01-17-05 01:39 PM:

you welcome, and good luck Jana

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by gt55 on 01-17-05 01:55 PM:

300 pips a month ?

I have been working for one year in a financial company.

We do have a fund of fund with forex managers. In our fact sheet we say that we have the best forex managers you can find in the market.

In 2004 the fund was down 7%. We have tested approximately 20 managers during one year and a half.

The best manager did 10% with a 10 mio allocation. So he did 1 mio in one year which is approximately 83 pips a month!!!

Most of his gain were made trough options ; 1.7 mio in option and -700,000 in spot.

I myself think one can do it (300 pips a month), I am still looking for the holy grail.

If you can see it from the inside, you'll see that the finance world looks like this : blind speculators selling products to blind clients.

Looking at Soros results, I think he must be proud to have amassed millions, then billions while the majority of the other players where loosing money.


Posted by OddTrader on 03-01-05 04:44 AM:


Quote from LoosenUp:

300 pips a month on average means a yearly gain of about 3600 pips. That would be about $36,000 gain per annum per 100k contract. My question is how much capital do you allocate to trade one 100k contract? Assuming you use a leverage of 1:10, are you then expecting a consistent yearly average return of 360%? Even if you use a leverage of 1:5, your return will still be 180% per annum. Since FX is a very liquid market and it is possible to get the same result using substantial size, that will put you in the elitest of the elites.

I am interested in finding from the successful forex traders here what kind of returns that they think they can reasonably achieve, assuming a leverage of 1:10, i.e using 10k yo trade 1 100 k contract.



I'm also interested in knowing the answer.

Would it be correct to say that the trader, achieving 360 pips yearly using 10K margin for a 100K contract (with a leverage of 1:10), may constantly use only (say) 10% of total capital (i.e. 100K) engaged in daily trading, therefore the annual returns should be 36% per total capital (probably nearly none of the hedge funds trading mainly FX could achieve this consistently), derived from a performance of 360% per contract?

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by TradingWise on 03-01-05 06:42 PM:


Quote from OddTrader:

I'm also interested in knowing the answer.

Would it be correct to say that the trader, achieving 360 pips yearly using 10K margin for a 100K contract (with a leverage of 1:10), may constantly use only (say) 10% of total capital (i.e. 100K) engaged in daily trading, therefore the annual returns should be 36% per total capital (probably nearly none of the hedge funds trading mainly FX could achieve this consistently), derived from a performance of 360% per contract?



Yes, this is correct. Though I don't know how you get the 360% per contract. If you mean 10k trading size = 1 contract, you are correct. Spot FX does not use contracts


Posted by OddTrader on 03-02-05 03:01 AM:


Quote from TradingWise:

Yes, this is correct. Though I don't know how you get the 360% per contract. If you mean 10k trading size = 1 contract, you are correct. Spot FX does not use contracts



Thanks. (A typo in my last post - The 360 pips yearly should be 3,600 pips yearly.)

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by OddTrader on 03-05-05 11:13 PM:

How about the sizing issues below?

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...9581#post699581


Quote from OldTrader:

I'd certainly be open to someone explaining to me how someone is going to make .60 points per minute each and every minute of the day when the average one minute bar might be .70-.80 points. Luck??? It's going to have to be something way beyond luck my friend.

Fortunately for the readers of this website, no one needs to make 240 points per day. A simple 5-10 per day will give most people all wealth they need or want, along with all the challenge they ever needed to accomplish it.

OldTrader

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by ElectricSavant on 03-05-05 11:31 PM:

Nana,

I want to know what you think is average Pips profit (move)
per day that is fairly reasonable to look for, say EUR/USD?


http://www.mataf.net/en/analysis-volatility.htm


Posted by OddTrader on 03-19-05 05:52 PM:

Do you guys believe this?

http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgbo...t=003720#000000
Q
80 pips per day is gbp/chf daily range ....so who can't make 40 pips a day?
UQ

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by illiquid on 03-19-05 06:15 PM:

What does avg range have anything to do with avg profit? 80 pip range also means you can lose 80 pips a day as well.

I don't understand why people obssess over average anything, the question makes absolutely zero sense at all.


Posted by ElectricSavant on 03-19-05 08:38 PM:

I can't get this link to work



Quote from OddTrader:

Do you guys believe this?

http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgbo...t=003720#000000
Q
80 pips per day is gbp/chf daily range ....so who can't make 40 pips a day?
UQ


Posted by cvds16 on 03-19-05 09:42 PM:


Quote from illiquid:

What does avg range have anything to do with avg profit? 80 pip range also means you can lose 80 pips a day as well.

I don't understand why people obssess over average anything, the question makes absolutely zero sense at all.


At last someone with a brain in this thread ...
If you see some of these posters have over a thousand posts it says a lot about what ET has become ...


Posted by OddTrader on 03-19-05 09:53 PM:


Quote from OddTrader:

Do you guys believe this?

http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgbo...t=003720#000000
Q
80 pips per day is gbp/chf daily range ....so who can't make 40 pips a day?
UQ



The link works with me. Perhaps try this way:
OANDA FXMessage » FXTrade - Currency Trading with OANDA » Experienced Traders - PRO » Carry trading vs volatility trading

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by OddTrader on 03-19-05 10:36 PM:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=6&pagenumber=3


Quote from Wallace:

No Cvds16, the errors have been yours when you obviously did not properly read and understand the original thread.

We'll say nothing of you being a European nor having read 'The Vandal Kings'. Wallace.


__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by OddTrader on 03-19-05 11:05 PM:


Quote from illiquid:

What does avg range have anything to do with avg profit?



Probably due to profits/ losses of a day are determined by the number of points movements and lot/ contract size, an average range in terms of points would determine the potential range/ average/ maximum of profits/ losses for the day.

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by ElectricSavant on 03-20-05 12:11 AM:

Could you be saying that Range is used as a benchmark by some scalpers to determing their performance....2 x range....etc....



Quote from OddTrader:

Probably due to profits/ losses of a day are determined by the number of points movements and lot/ contract size, an average range in terms of points would determine the potential range/ average/ maximum of profits/ losses for the day.


Posted by OddTrader on 03-20-05 01:08 AM:

Afetr learning and studying this interesting issue (at least to me), I haven't got all clear/ firm answers yet, except more questions (that I might never know the answers).

However, I think some variables would greatly impact the issue, such as price level (a daily range 100 pips at price 1.5000 is 0.7%, but 100 pips at price 1.0000 is 1%).

Within the context of this thread, I believe the 300 pips per month (at current price level) as mentioned by others would be already a very good result indeed (particularly after compounding), if achieved consitently (with reasonably small DD).

I would guess, for anything over a threshold say 300 pips per month (or else), there could be an effect (such as DD, win-rate, costs, etc.) of diminishing returns (regardless style/ method/ system?) applicable. (Probably only the almighty marketmakers would understand how to do it so efficiently. LOL)

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by ElectricSavant on 03-20-05 01:44 AM:

Not bad for a novice...



Quote from OddTrader:

Afetr learning and studying this interesting issue (at least to me), I haven't got all clear/ firm answers yet, except more questions (that I might never know the answers).

However, I think some variables would greatly impact the issue, such as price level (a daily range 100 pips at price 1.5000 is 0.7%, but 100 pips at price 1.0000 is 1%).

Within the context of this thread, I believe the 300 pips per month (at current price level) as mentioned by others would be already a very good result indeed (particularly after compounding), if achieved consitently (with reasonably small DD).

I would guess, for anything over a threshold say 300 pips per month (or else), there could be an effect (such as DD, win-rate, costs, etc.) of diminishing returns (regardless style/ method/ system?) applicable. (Probably only the almighty marketmakers would understand how to do it so efficiently. LOL)



Posted by OddTrader on 03-20-05 02:31 AM:


Quote from ElectricSavant:

Not bad for a novice...



Thanks.

The results from gurus like you and others (on oanda site) that have achieved or/ and targeted a 1% daily return on equity would be completely amazing to me.

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by ElectricSavant on 03-20-05 03:35 AM:

To be a guru, doesn't one need a following?


Quote from OddTrader:

Thanks.

The results from gurus like you and others (on oanda site) that have achieved or/ and targeted a 1% daily return on equity would be completely amazing to me.


Posted by OddTrader on 03-20-05 04:28 AM:


Quote from swoop[TR]:


What I'm saying is, you will know your average pip per day/trade AFTER the fact. Not before. You can set yourself objectives but I don't think you should or even can for that matter systemically make that average per day. IT's just not logical and probably not a sound trading plan.

Every trade is different. That is not a secret but it is very much overlooked. Even in systematic trading...every trade has its own little characteristics.





Quote from JanaSergeevna:

IMHO making a steady and reliable average of 20 pips per day off any one specific instrument is pretty difficult and an excellent result. In some senses the number of pips per day that you can make is actually less important than the reliability, though. An average of (say) 400 pips per month (about 20 per trading day) is not so clever if it conceals a 500-pip drawdown, and it will require totally different money management from a system which produces something in the range of -20 to +60 pips per day (which might also average out at +20). IMHO many traders do not adequately take the variability into account in working out their position-sizing.




Quote from Andy62279:

Thats the problem with money management. Too aggressive MM can result in higher drawdowns, or account being wiped out. MM and the method should accomodate each other.

IMO... a less reliable method making 400 pips average per month isn't as good as a reliable method making 200 pips on average. Less reliable methods cannot take advantage of money management, where as a reliable method can take advantage of money management. Proper money management can produce very good performance... but a reliable method is required.

I'm sure there are different ways of looking at this, but this is the way I look at it though



Thanks for the above input from them (and many others as well), I've been following these advices. They are my gurus on ET.

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by illiquid on 03-20-05 05:51 AM:


Quote from OddTrader:

Probably due to profits/ losses of a day are determined by the number of points movements and lot/ contract size, an average range in terms of points would determine the potential range/ average/ maximum of profits/ losses for the day.



I thought profits/losses per day was determined by the effectiveness of one's edge and ability to read the market; avg range just measures typical volatility, which should only factor into position size and stop placement as risk increases equally with potential reward -- please correct me if I'm wrong. Take a chart of any liquid currency and wipe away the numbers along the y-axis; does it really matter whether the difference between high and low is 30 pips or 130 pips? The picture will be the same.

Anyways, not trying to be hostile at all, it's just the impetus behind the original question of the thread which bugs me. Average profit per trade, per day, per year -- who cares? Would you really trade any different if you were told a 10-pip profit was great for your time frame? How about 30? Or 100? They're all completely useless for helping one's trading. If you go into trading forex with the attitude that one should take X amount of pips per day, since 2X or 3x or 10X is the avg range; or thinking surely one can take out a mere 5% of the daily range each day, that doesn't sound so hard or greedy at all; you are just setting yourself up for disappointment in either case. People get suspicious when some site claims you can make 50 pips a day -- as if 5 pips wasn't just as hard or incredulous for someone to sell.

All profitable traders will end up with some arbitrary percentage made on whatever time frame they trade at; the "avg number" for the "avg trader" on the "avg day" is completely meaningless. If you're looking for some benchmark to compare yourself to, or just trying to see what's possible, don't bother asking -- it can only hurt you by putting limits on what is essentially limitless potential, in both risk and reward.

Edit: and for those of you on the opposite spectrum who say a couple hundred pips per month "should be doable" -- god bless you all, you "should" all be retiring within a few years!


Posted by Baruch on 03-20-05 08:33 AM:


Quote from Andy62279:

I'm not trading euro this year, but the pound instead.... but I am currently trailing the pound with 210+ pip profit since last night. Since the pound and euro are pretty much in sync right now, the same trade on the euro would be about the same profit as well.



I don't think so. Euro don't move as much as pound.


Posted by OddTrader on 03-20-05 08:44 AM:


Quote from illiquid:

I thought profits/losses per day was determined by the effectiveness of one's edge and ability to read the market; avg range just measures typical volatility, which should only factor into position size and stop placement as risk increases equally with potential reward -- please correct me if I'm wrong. Take a chart of any liquid currency and wipe away the numbers along the y-axis; does it really matter whether the difference between high and low is 30 pips or 130 pips? The picture will be the same.




Many thanks Illiquid for the feedback.

Say a trader would like to maximise his returns on invested deposit/ risk, and he has two markets to trade/ choose: EUR/USD at price level 1.5000 with average range 100 pips, and AUD/USD at price level 0.7500 with average range 50 pips. As these two markets have extremely high (assuming 100%) correlation, the trader naturally could use the same system of same edge to capture a fraction of movement for profits.

Basically the price movement in terms of pips of individual pair during a same time interval would not be the same, even their charts/ pictures will be likely looking the same.

For EUR/USD, a 15 pips profit is 1% of 1.5000 or 15% of 100, that would be considered feasible by some general traders (the trader included).

Whereas for AUD/USD, a 15 pips profit is 2% of 0.7500 or 30% of 50 pips, that might be considered quite differently (if not impossible) by the same general traders. If it can be done by the trader, he would then simply choose to trade AUD/USD for doubling his profits by using the same margin deposit for the aim of doubling his returns.

I'm not trying to conclude anything, but the above are my views.



Quote from illiquid:

Anyways, not trying to be hostile at all, it's just the impetus behind the original question of the thread which bugs me. Average profit per trade, per day, per year -- who cares? Would you really trade any different if you were told a 10-pip profit was great for your time frame? How about 30? Or 100? They're all completely useless for helping one's trading. If you go into trading forex with the attitude that one should take X amount of pips per day, since 2X or 3x or 10X is the avg range; or thinking surely one can take out a mere 5% of the daily range each day, that doesn't sound so hard or greedy at all; you are just setting yourself up for disappointment in either case. People get suspicious when some site claims you can make 50 pips a day -- as if 5 pips wasn't just as hard or incredulous for someone to sell.

All profitable traders will end up with some arbitrary percentage made on whatever time frame they trade at; the "avg number" for the "avg trader" on the "avg day" is completely meaningless. If you're looking for some benchmark to compare yourself to, or just trying to see what's possible, don't bother asking -- it can only hurt you by putting limits on what is essentially limitless potential, in both risk and reward.



My own experience is that certain (pseudo-)benchmark information (realistic ones) would be not only useful, but also important, at least to me. I would like to find out why for the difference in order to spend time for improving the returns of my investment/ risk, which is the aim of the whole process and my business, imo.

If currently I make 5 pips (just covering my living expenses) on average daily and I know the benchmark is 10, I will try to do something harder (I wouldn't keep trading the same way by awaiting doubling returns.). If I know the benchmark is no one can make any profits by trading XXX/YYY although I'm constantly making 5, I will change to trade another better pair with 10.

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by illiquid on 03-20-05 02:07 PM:


Quote from OddTrader:

Basically the price movement in terms of pips of individual pair during a same time interval would not be the same, even their charts/ pictures will be likely looking the same.

For EUR/USD, a 15 pips profit is 1% of 1.5000 or 15% of 100, that would be considered feasible by some general traders (the trader included).

Whereas for AUD/USD, a 15 pips profit is 2% of 0.7500 or 30% of 50 pips, that might be considered quite differently (if not impossible) by the same general traders. If it can be done by the trader, he would then simply choose to trade AUD/USD for doubling his profits by using the same margin deposit for the aim of doubling his returns.



Not sure, but are we arguing the same point here? My point was that a system will capture a certain percentage of range of any given currency, the number of pips doesn't matter. Theoretically, if aussie has half the range, the same trader applying the same edge (assuming all else being equal, which it ain't) will get half the number of pips trading AUD; he would just double the position size to compensate. Asking what the average daily range of the euro compared to the aussie is a completely different question vs what is considered "average" or "good" profit per day in either.



If currently I make 5 pips (just covering my living expenses) on average daily and I know the benchmark is 10, I will try to do something harder (I wouldn't keep trading the same way by awaiting doubling returns.). If I know the benchmark is no one can make any profits by trading XXX/YYY although I'm constantly making 5, I will change to trade another better pair with 10.



If you make 5 on currency X, it's because that's what your edge yields you; if knowing the "avg" is 10 makes you work harder, fine, use the motivation. But knowing that fact won't give you a step up in improving your edge.


Posted by OddTrader on 03-20-05 02:28 PM:


Quote from illiquid:

My point was that a system will capture a certain percentage of range of any given currency, the number of pips doesn't matter.



Agree.



Quote from illiquid:


... in improving your edge.



Yes, an improved (or a newly developed) edge is required.

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by Andy62279 on 03-20-05 02:31 PM:


Quote from Baruch:

I don't think so. Euro don't move as much as pound.



you are right, but January of this year it has

__________________
because I don't know what the market is going to do is why I am not afraid


Posted by OddTrader on 04-12-05 08:35 AM:

Here is a very interesting "offer":

A MILLION DOLLAR PRIZE
http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgbo...3827;p=1#000000

Q
There is simply NO CHANCE to produce consistent trading profits in excess of, say 10-15 pips of eurusd a day, no matter how clever you are.

If anybody claims the contrary, I am ready to take up the challenge.

If anyone is willing to enter a 100:1 contest, I promise to pay 1.000.000 USD in one year's time, to anyone, who is able to deliver consistently, for a full calendar year, trading signals on eurusd, which would have the following characteristics:

- the signals have to be defined precisely (stop or limit orders), and in time to get implemented ( at least 1 minute ahead of execution)

- the MM of choice will be Oanda - their spread is certainly not a hindrance, and their stop and limit execution is not worse than that of UBS, thus their fills will be the proof of the performance

- the maximum nominal stop will not be higher than 30 pips

- there have to be at least 4 trades each week

- there has to be no losing month

- the average weekly profit has to be not less than 100 pips (taking into account Oanda's execution)

If all these conditions are met I WILL PAY 1.000.000 USD to the signal provider at the end of the year. However, if the signals should result in a loss at the end of the year, the signal provider will pay me 10.000 USD as compensation for the waste of time and money.

If the result should be positive, but less than defined above, I will pay a compensation on a discressionary basis.
UQ

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by jonnyy40 on 04-12-05 12:33 PM:

Oanda get the pick of the crop while raking in commish at the same time.A much better deal imo.


Posted by OddTrader on 04-13-05 09:16 PM:

544% return in one month!

http://www.fxcm.com/contest-winners.jsp

Q
Contest Highlights
March’s King of the Mini title goes to a Chinese trader, who put in an astounding one-month return of 544%! The runner up was from the US, and managed an impressive 382% gain and the third place finisher had a 256% return. These returns become even more impressive when taking into account the conditions in the market the past month.
UQ

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by Maxprofit$ on 04-14-05 12:04 AM:

That a 5% natural return with 100:1 leverage.

You can say in the worldwide community of traders, there will always be one lucky bastard who will be able to make it. I insist one the word lucky! He won't make it 2 months in a row!

__________________
Having no system as a system
Having no way as way


Posted by OddTrader on 04-14-05 05:12 PM:

971% in one week?!!!

http://www.fxcm.com/contest-results.jsp

Q
Week one of April’s King of the Mini contest ended with China on top. The Chinese trader showed an impressive gain of 971% and is trailed in 2nd and 3rd place by Americans.
UQ

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by TradingWise on 04-14-05 06:52 PM:


Quote from OddTrader:

971% in one week?!!!

http://www.fxcm.com/contest-results.jsp

Q
Week one of April’s King of the Mini contest ended with China on top. The Chinese trader showed an impressive gain of 971% and is trailed in 2nd and 3rd place by Americans.
UQ



YOu can view the history of the past month:

http://www.fxcm.com/contest-winners.jsp


Posted by OddTrader on 04-14-05 07:15 PM:


Quote from TradingWise:

YOu can view the history of the past month:

http://www.fxcm.com/contest-winners.jsp



The daily transaction details found from the View Record are quite interesting.

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by leverage on 09-20-05 07:38 PM:

How about 80-90 pips a month? anyone average that?


Posted by OddTrader on 09-30-05 05:26 PM:


Quote from leverage:

How about 80-90 pips a month?



Leverage,

Trading EUR/USD with leverage of 100:1, a mothly average 85 pips would be around 70% gain per month.

Congratulations!

Q
Do you believe in 50% a month returns thru mech. system?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=6&pagenumber=2


Quote from dougcs:

Is it, can 50% be achieved in a month or is it can that rate be sustained for long periods?

Let's see: start with 50K

trade for 5 years and make 50% per month

at the end:

1.8 quadrillion dollars, yea I guess it can be done. I may need to to afford health insurance, forget about the jets and yachts.

DS



UQ

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by OddTrader on 10-03-05 06:31 PM:

Why is that trading EUR/USD more difficult to gain profits/pips?

There is no doubt that I find EUR/USD inordinately difficult, and sadly, as you will be able to see from my September report, I'm still doing very poorly with this little experiment of mine.

The thing that drives me on this is that being the most widely traded and competitive of pairs, I just think it would be advantageous to crack it. However, if it wasn't for the fact that I've got very little in the way of funds at risk, I would have ditched it long ago.

There is also no doubt in my mind that the non-USD and probably the non-EUR pairs are the easiest to trade. Since no-one gives out medals for doing it tough; I'm happy to stay away from the main battlefield.

UQ

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by OddTrader on 10-23-05 10:17 AM:


Quote from OddTrader:

Why is that trading EUR/USD more difficult to gain profits/pips?

Q
http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgbo...3791;p=1#000013

There is no doubt that I find EUR/USD inordinately difficult, and sadly, as you will be able to see from my September report, I'm still doing very poorly with this little experiment of mine.

The thing that drives me on this is that being the most widely traded and competitive of pairs, I just think it would be advantageous to crack it. However, if it wasn't for the fact that I've got very little in the way of funds at risk, I would have ditched it long ago.

There is also no doubt in my mind that the non-USD and probably the non-EUR pairs are the easiest to trade. Since no-one gives out medals for doing it tough; I'm happy to stay away from the main battlefield.

UQ




"Not so easy."
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...?threadid=57334

__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner


Posted by vital-analitix on 10-23-05 05:49 PM:


Quote from OddTrader:

Here is a very interesting "offer":

A MILLION DOLLAR PRIZE
http://www2.oanda.com/cgi-bin/msgbo...3827;p=1#000000

Q
There is simply NO CHANCE to produce consistent trading profits in excess of, say 10-15 pips of eurusd a day, no matter how clever you are.

If anybody claims the contrary, I am ready to take up the challenge.

If anyone is willing to enter a 100:1 contest, I promise to pay 1.000.000 USD in one year's time, to anyone, who is able to deliver consistently, for a full calendar year, trading signals on eurusd, which would have the following characteristics:

- the signals have to be defined precisely (stop or limit orders), and in time to get implemented ( at least 1 minute ahead of execution)

- the MM of choice will be Oanda - their spread is certainly not a hindrance, and their stop and limit execution is not worse than that of UBS, thus their fills will be the proof of the performance

- the maximum nominal stop will not be higher than 30 pips

- there have to be at least 4 trades each week

- there has to be no losing month

- the average weekly profit has to be not less than 100 pips (taking into account Oanda's execution)

If all these conditions are met I WILL PAY 1.000.000 USD to the signal provider at the end of the year. However, if the signals should result in a loss at the end of the year, the signal provider will pay me 10.000 USD as compensation for the waste of time and money.

If the result should be positive, but less than defined above, I will pay a compensation on a discressionary basis.
UQ



Quote: Jessie Livermoore

There is the fool who says / does the wrong thing all the time. There is the Wall Street fool who think (s)he has to trade all the time.

And another one

The length of your trading bar (timeframe you trade) is in direct relation to the experience you have.



Posted by mrvizion on 10-23-05 08:26 PM:

Q

Funny... I'm just trying to figure out why you would try to make those kind of daily gains all on one currency pair.

Vizion

UQ

__________________
There's no such thing as a ranging market!


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