Forums (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/index.php)
- Stocks (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?forumid=51)
-- Anyone Betting on Facebook? (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=243653)
Anyone Betting on Facebook?
Opened a small initial position today in Facebook, with FB @ 27.19.
(via Bull Put Credit Spread)
Bet: FB will close @25 or higher on 01/18/13.
Possible Net Gain: 79.63%
Re: Anyone Betting on Facebook?
Quote from cactiman:
Opened a small initial position today in Facebook, with FB @ 27.19.
(via Bull Put Credit Spread)
Bet: FB will close @25 or higher on 01/18/13.
Possible Net Gain: 79.63%
__________________
Hans
Facebook has lost almost $40 billion dollars in valuation since its high of $45 per share less than 2 weeks ago. Has any other company in history that wasnt going bankrupt lost that much without any negative news?
I will buy facebook when it reaches $1.
Re: Re: Anyone Betting on Facebook?
Quote from Hansel H:
I'm betting against FB by way of $20 July puts. So far, so good. FB could turn into a fiasco.
FB is a tough buy. Why would I want to guess before seeing a quarter?
__________________
Swan Noir
Quote from Swan Noir:
FB is a tough buy. Why would I want to guess before seeing a quarter?
__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.
Quote from peilthetraveler:
Facebook has lost almost $40 billion dollars in valuation since its high of $45 per share less than 2 weeks ago. Has any other company in history that wasnt going bankrupt lost that much without any negative news?
I will buy facebook when it reaches $1.
__________________
Hans
Here's hoping for a rally so that I can pick up those $16 July puts for an all-or-nothing nickel.
__________________
Hans
Quote from peilthetraveler:
I will buy facebook when it reaches $1.
__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.
Rate of descent is changing. Took my little profit. I can afford lunch today (hamburger and coffee + 25-cent tip). Hoping for a rally so's I can get back in.
__________________
Hans
Quote from Swan Noir:
FB is a tough buy. Why would I want to guess before seeing a quarter?
__________________
Hans
Quote from Hansel H:
Zuckerberg gave secret guidance indicating earnings will go down from here.
__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.
Quote from shopster:
off to the slammer.....
s
__________________
Hans
Quote from Swan Noir:
FB is a tough buy. Why would I want to guess before seeing a quarter?
Quote from Hansel H:
Rate of descent is changing. Took my little profit. I can afford lunch today (hamburger and coffee + 25-cent tip). Hoping for a rally so's I can get back in.
Quote from cactiman:
Of course the "correct" way to trade an IPO is to let it form a proper base first, and then Buy the Breakout.
Will wait for that now, before adding on any more contracts.
But I wanted to have a go at "Bottom Fishing" first - just for fun.
A very small initial purchase, so not much risk involved.
Quote from stephan31:
-------------------------
This is a psychological manifestation of a swing trader's weakness.
Weak in discipline. Weak in execution. Weak in rationalization.
With all due respect.
Anyone check out Fagbook 'natal' "born on date" aspect?
We will see teens before we see $37.00 again.
Fagbook founder 'Zuckerberg' is (in my humble opinion) a reductive autistic anti-social {networking} geek boy who is NOT a force now--nor will he be in any way or shape "relevant" going forward in the next 18-24 months.
Facebook was a bubble (who do you think financed the film--directed by 1 of my 'top 5 directors'--David Fincher); save that--the film was a shit show of a script and featured the 'in real-life' Asperger's syndrome actor Jesse Eisenberg and that horrible little douchebag from some gay 'boy band' dude named Justin Timberlake.
Sorry, I despise mainstream cinema.
Keep shorting this shit-canned stock. Frankly, Zuckerberg was way too arrogant and smug with this IPO 'timing.'
Facebook's "natal birthdate" last week was the absolute worst time to go public. Did you really expect this repulsive-looking white boy to cover all his bases?
Steve Jobs and Bill Gates and Google founders sure as fuck did when they did their IPO's.
I feel good about facebook being an absolute dismal failure. It feels right.
Peace & Blessings!
Archbishop Hedvig Von Dikkeman V
Market is giving another chance to longs to get out now by opening the door while letting more suckers to get in from another door. Shrewd traders won't miss these opportunities to make money.
FB is trading at 29.50 now. I see $20 on tape. It is imminent.
Quote from cactiman:
whatever....
Quote from cactiman:
Good timing!
Lots of short covering during the last 2 hours of trading....
__________________
Hans
"The stock market.........
a legal venue for a banksta and his crew to dump an over hyped IPO at triple the value to a group of retail muppets.”
s
__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.
Quote from Hansel H:
Actually, I'm a lot more optimistic about FB's future than you are. I would think GOOG will buy them out before they hit $4.
Quote from Hansel H:
Thanks. I not only made my lunch money but had time to make the beanery before the lunch special expired.
Standing aside until we see how much FB might rally. I see the 2-day fast stochastic is pretty high but if New York rallies FB should get a further boost. Probably a lot of guys want to average down or switch back in after taking a loss.
BTW I was lucky this time but I don't trade a lot of options. Options always make me nervous. For high-risk I prefer trading Canadian Venture stocks to trading US options.
GL (we always need luck)
yes,I am short both Facebook and Bankia stock- no idea why the spanish government still allows short selling of spanish banks, via a spreadbetter- so if it pays off its tax free as well -
Quote from stephan31:
-----------------
No dis-respect intended.
Bottom fishing as a trader is akin to fucking a fat girl in a perceived 'time of need.'
It is lazy and sloppy and why in the fuck are you wasting your precious time with repeating a negatively reinforced behaviour?
IF this is just for shits & grins then I guess you have some cocktail conversation and can say you bought facebook when it was still in the high 20's and it will 'come' back some day.
Yes; I realize you took a small 'taste' for fun. Still it is my opinion this is highly damaging to an overall RUTHLESSLY disciplined trading strategy.
If it didn't mean anything why bother putting on an initial position?
Finally, what is your stop loss on your spread and when/where and 'how' will you add to your loser or will you be waiting for it to 'lift' into a new position at a higher price than now and will you be trading it as a stock or a derivative.
I wasn't meaning to bust your balls; really.
I like to 'rant' on certain subjects--so it wasn't necessarly 100% directed at you.
peace
hedvig
Glad you responded.
Was just interested in your 'personal' strategy.
I rant alot (it gets the poison out); most of my rants are aimed at lousy traders who might be reading my profanity-ridden rants to get them to ACT out a different storyline in their heads--towards at least some longer-term net profitability.
This may be a game but score is kept with quite a few shekels if one gets it right at least 50% of the time with a good risk/reward and proper trade management 'topped off' with keeping one's head on straight throughout the entire trade sequence.
peace
hedvig
Quote from stephan31:
Glad you responded.
Was just interested in your 'personal' strategy.
I rant alot (it gets the poison out); most of my rants are aimed at lousy traders who might be reading my profanity-ridden rants to get them to ACT out a different storyline in their heads--towards at least some longer-term net profitability.
This may be a game but score is kept with quite a few shekels if one gets it right at least 50% of the time with a good risk/reward and proper trade management 'topped off' with keeping one's head on straight throughout the entire trade sequence.
peace
hedvig
Quote from cactiman:
Canadian Venture Stocks? Any examples come to mind?
As to US Options, I don't Buy Singles at all anymore.
These days I'm just a Net Seller via Vertical Spreads and Iron Condors.
__________________
Hans
Quote from Hansel H:
Sure. Here's one I'm long at the moment. Please note though - I would never in a million years recommend a venture stock to anybody. You have to watch these things like a hawk and be very familiar with the myriad ways penny promoters scam you. I am not suggesting you buy GQC; I'm just showing you how these things move (occassionally) like options.
On this site, stockscores.com, there are thousands of charts and each one has a bullboard accessible below the chart. Be warned - at least half the people involved in these chats are professional pump-and-dumpers.
This particular stock found a gold ore body in the Dominican Republic. It may be bona fide or it may be a scam. Time will tell.
http://www.stockscores.com/quickrep...=v.gqc&x=10&y=3
FB held up OK on Friday, with the 26.83 low (at the bottom of Thursday's "Hammer") never threatened. The volume was quite low too. I guess, for one day at least, everybody decided to sell everything else instead!
But this quote from a recent blog doesn't inspire much confidence in FB's future price levels...
"A major risk for investors in recent IPO's is when the "lockup" period expires. Many insiders are typically restricted from selling all their shares for at least 90 to 180 days after the IPO. According to one article, Facebook could see about 286 million additional shares available for sale in about 3 months, and a massive 1.7 billion shares within 6 months. Both Groupon and Zynga shares have seen accelerated declines in the share price as their lockup periods drew near and expired. Facebook is likely to see the same downside pressure when more shares become available for sale. A $20 per share level could become a more reasonable valuation, yet still give the company a premium valuation at about 40 times earnings."
Facebook Puts
On Friday I bought a bunch of FB July 29 strike puts. As of the close I was up .30 on them, but I believe that FB could fall to 20 by the end of June. There will probably be some days that it trades positive as there will be short covering opportunities, but I think that the serious buyers will be waiting for a much, much lower price to even dabble in this POS. Maybe once the shares reach a valuation around levels closer to Google and Apple some serious buyers will step in.
With the crazy valuations on this stock and a weak market overall I just do not understand why anyone would want to buy this higher than the teens. Especially in an overall weak market. There will be announcements of lawsuits all summer and their earnings appear to be declining. Lots of customers of the firm that I work for opened accounts just to buy Facebook and they got burned hard. Now everyone is letting reality set in and actually reading about the earnings and valuation of the company... compared to say Google, and they are getting worried and the news regarding Morgan Stanley and other underwriters is getting them disgusted.
Re: Facebook Puts
Quote from Trader7793:
On Friday I bought a bunch of FB July 29 strike puts. As of the close I was up .30 on them, but I believe that FB could fall to 20 by the end of June. There will probably be some days that it trades positive as there will be short covering opportunities, but I think that the serious buyers will be waiting for a much, much lower price to even dabble in this POS. Maybe once the shares reach a valuation around levels closer to Google and Apple some serious buyers will step in.
With the crazy valuations on this stock and a weak market overall I just do not understand why anyone would want to buy this higher than the teens. Especially in an overall weak market. There will be announcements of lawsuits all summer and their earnings appear to be declining. Lots of customers of the firm that I work for opened accounts just to buy Facebook and they got burned hard. Now everyone is letting reality set in and actually reading about the earnings and valuation of the company... compared to say Google, and they are getting worried and the news regarding Morgan Stanley and other underwriters is getting them disgusted.
taking the short side with puts or short the stock is a good idea
this could see be a $ 15.00 - $ 20.00 overvalued & too risky to buy
FB took out last week's 26.83 Low this morning.
Opened FB July & August 30/31 Bear Call Spreads.
How Low Will it Go?
FB will be a GREAT swingtrading stock going forward (it is exhibiting good 'flow').
I have a bet with 15+ trader friends--
Low of $8.00 High of $28 and change is the total 'range' of all of their 'ghetto' bets.
My guesses were/are
1st target $23.62 by 9/21/12
2nd target $15.33 perhaps up to 3 weeks later.
By the end of the 'summer/early fall' selloff.
peace
hedvig
Quote from stephan31:
FB will be a GREAT swingtrading stock going forward (it is exhibiting good 'flow').
I have a bet with 15+ trader friends--
Low of $8.00 High of $28 and change is the total 'range' of all of their 'ghetto' bets.
My guesses were/are
1st target $23.62 by 9/21/12
2nd target $15.33 perhaps up to 3 weeks later.
By the end of the 'summer/early fall' selloff.
peace
hedvig
Why thank you!
Eventually; everyone comes over to the dark side!
Peace & Blessings!
Archbishop Hedvig Von Dikkeman V
p.s.
Seriously--FB (at this point--natal birthdate and 1st 10 days price action) appears (imho) to be a stock that will be
a) high volume
b) large big-swingin' dick price movement each year
------------
FB will survive--initial growing pains and the 'scam' of retail suckers aside...
I would average into FB like crazy if I was convinced it would rebound.
Quote from stephan31:
FB will be a GREAT swingtrading stock going forward (it is exhibiting good 'flow').
I have a bet with 15+ trader friends--
Low of $8.00 High of $28 and change is the total 'range' of all of their 'ghetto' bets.
My guesses were/are
1st target $23.62 by 9/21/12
2nd target $15.33 perhaps up to 3 weeks later.
By the end of the 'summer/early fall' selloff.
peace
hedvig
Atticus,
Such a polite gentleman.
I am usually not.
Well, when the stock indices bottom in another 3-4 months I guess we will know if the 'fagbook' rolls with the tide.
Yes--the $15 and change is an extended 2nd target 'projection'--'tis all.
I am excited about trading weekly options when they come out. I anticipate FB being a great stock to swingtrade.
Alot of good r:r setups most likely once we get 2 quarterly earnings reports out of the way.
peace
hedvig
Quote from stephan31:
Atticus,
Such a polite gentleman.
I am usually not.
Well, when the stock indices bottom in another 3-4 months I guess we will know if the 'fagbook' rolls with the tide.
Yes--the $15 and change is an extended 2nd target 'projection'--'tis all.
I am excited about trading weekly options when they come out. I anticipate FB being a great stock to swingtrade.
Alot of good r:r setups most likely once we get 2 quarterly earnings reports out of the way.
peace
hedvig
This chart looks like the Escalator at the Mall!
Going Down Anyone?
I hope Mark Cuban is holding his 150,000 shares.
It's time to average down!
Mark Cuban Buys 150K Facebook Shares
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsav...-an-investment/
FB gonna 'rebound' for several days now.
Nothin' but a short-term move.
This is what I anticipate. Just my humble opinion.
Look for as high as $31.48 or as low as $29.47 (one could use 3 price levels to short into--3 units scaling in)--then short the company that is destroying lives!
peace
hedvig
p.s. Anyone know when FB starts weekly options or have they begun already. I am primarily a derivatives trader (futures/commodity options)--but haven't checked all the NEW info on FB.
Quote from stephan31:
FB gonna 'rebound' for several days now.
Nothin' but a short-term move.
This is what I anticipate. Just my humble opinion.
Look for as high as $31.48 or as low as $29.47 (one could use 3 price levels to short into--3 units scaling in)--then short the company that is destroying lives!
peace
hedvig
p.s. Anyone know when FB starts weekly options or have they begun already. I am primarily a derivatives trader (futures/commodity options)--but haven't checked all the NEW info on FB.
Quote from atticus:
The stock will not touch $20.00 in 2012.
I guess everyone knows facebook is not an investment, but only a trade....thats because in the next few years facebook will be worth no more than a couple of billion dollars!
Mark Cuban Buys 150K Facebook Shares For 'Trade,' 'Not An Investment'
Mark Cuban: Billionaire stock pundit.
Billionaire investor Mark Cuban disclosed at the tail-end of a lengthy blog post about the Facebook IPO that he bought 150,000 Facebook shares in the open market: 50,000 at $33, 50,000 at $31.97 and 50,000 at $32.50.
“It’s a trade, not an investment,” he writes. “Kind of like buying a Mickey Mantle, a Hank Aaron and a Barry Bonds rookie card knowing there is a card show in town next week.”
Just Opened some FB July 30/31/21/20 Iron Condors @FB 26.81.
Time will tell whether I called the Range correctly or not.
So his cost average is 32.50. Right now, it just broke 26.50. Down $900k. Be interesting how he handles this trade.
Quote from S2007S:
Billionaire investor Mark Cuban disclosed at the tail-end of a lengthy blog post about the Facebook IPO that he bought 150,000 Facebook shares in the open market: 50,000 at $33, 50,000 at $31.97 and 50,000 at $32.50.
Quote from lwlee:
So his cost average is 32.50. Right now, it just broke 26.50. Down $900k. Be interesting how he handles this trade.
More about reputation than the money. I doubt he wants to be considered a poor trader.
Quote from atticus:
0.02% of his net liq.
mark cuban investment in FB is rather a small bet
he is holding it long term & chump change for some good pr
So what is it? An investment or a trade?
Regardless, it's looking like a bad one.
Quote from hitnrun:
mark cuban investment in FB is rather a small bet
he is holding it long term & chump change for some good pr
Quote from S2007S:
I guess everyone knows facebook is not an investment, but only a trade....thats because in the next few years facebook will be worth no more than a couple of billion dollars!
Mark Cuban Buys 150K Facebook Shares For 'Trade,' 'Not An Investment'
The article i read stated it is a investment with his purchase of FB
He is not a trader , he has more money then he knows that to do Lol.
He bought some publicity . plain & simple
Quote from hitnrun:
The article i read stated it is a investment with his purchase of FB
He is not a trader , he has more money then he knows that to do Lol.
He bought some publicity . plain & simple
my bad , ok big man on campus . who gives a shit anyway
get a life Asshole
FB is going to be a slam dunk long term buy/hold once all the pikers that got long during the IPO (or before that - that shouldnt have got shares in the first place - thinking they could just flip em for a quick profit) puke out their position for a loss. This will be after its gone down big (price) or its dead money (too long of a time for them to be holding a loser), then they get bored and throw in the towel thinking its dead money...I'm thinking the first target to start buying is the 50% fib from IPO (about $20), then we'll see a nice move up to around $30 (where most pikers got shares in the secondary mkt before the IPO), then insiders can sell in 6 months, push it down a bit, a bottom will starts forming, good fundamental news will start to come out, time to start forming a nice bottom...time to buy...price target back up to $40....IMO just gotta watch this price action to time your entry/exits
He can lend his shares out and collect interest.
If it EVER goes to $1 it will soon be ZERO...
I say if and when it goes to the teens it maybe a buy....
Quote from peilthetraveler:
Facebook has lost almost $40 billion dollars in valuation since its high of $45 per share less than 2 weeks ago. Has any other company in history that wasnt going bankrupt lost that much without any negative news?
I will buy facebook when it reaches $1.
Quote from atticus:
The stock will not touch $20.00 in 2012.
Quote from cactiman:
atticus,
What's your opinion on a fair range for FB in 2012? In the 20's only, or can you see it going back into the 30's?
Quote from atticus:
I suspect that VWAP for the remainder of 2012 (starting today) will be $28~.
Quote from atticus:
I'll pay 5:1 against a touch of $15.33 by 11/11/2012. I think you're FOS.
Quote from stephan31:
--------------
Because I care; on a 2%+ up day in dow/s&p/nq and yet; FB (destroys lives) is weak.
Let us do the wager, eh? I am on the lake in Michigan for the summer and will kindly give you my paypal account particulars.
5 figures good for you? {I wanted to sound like that white dude who believes in 'magic underwear' who is running for the dumbest 'title' CEO of the Estados Unidos}; Romney and his inbred spawn!
My man; I enjoy your moxy--but I am a holy man and I know things!
Just being stupid; let us keep the 'hope and change' alive in this thread, eh?
Our goal as traders is to identify highly volatile stocks that MOVE so that we can either trade options or on margin or ???? doing some efficient swingtrading.
peace & blessings!
The Eponymous Archbishop Hedvig Von Dikkeman V
p.s. Your turn!
p.p.s. Great thread and FB brings out the Type A personalites, eh?
Interesting blog about FB came out a couple of hours ago:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2...-now/tab/print/
Quote from atticus:
Sure, you're on. I will PM. We can update this thread per the original bet conditions at expiration on 11/12/2012.
I will lay 5:1 AGAINST a touch of $15.33 on FB shares anytime before the close of LISTED trading during NYSE hours on 11/12/2012. I will pay 5x the wagered sum if FB shares TOUCH via TRADE at $15.33 any time during the period in question.
You will pay 1x the wagered sum if FB shares DO NOT touch $15.33 prior to the close of LISTED trading any time during NYSE hours, ending on 11/12/2012.
Quote from atticus:
Sure, you're on. I will PM. We can update this thread per the original bet conditions at expiration on 11/12/2012.
I will lay 5:1 AGAINST a touch of $15.33 on FB shares anytime before the close of LISTED trading during NYSE hours on 11/12/2012. I will pay 5x the wagered sum if FB shares $15.33 any time during the period in question.
You will pay 1x the wagered sum if FB shares DO NOT touch $15.33 prior to the close of LISTED trading during NYSE hours on 11/12/2012.
Quote from peilthetraveler:
As long as you are giving money away...
Just so you know, as of now, the sept $20 puts will pay you about 5x your bet if they touch $15(plus time value) Dec $20 puts are paying about 2.7 times(plus time value) if they touch $15. Time value about 9 days out is worth .70 which would mean the dec $20 would actually pay slightly over 3x if it hits by the first week in dec. If it hits by the november date in question, then it would pay about 4 times your original bet. If it hits a month earlier than that, then about 4.5 times your original bet. So the guy you are betting with is getting slightly better odds with you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jze7...feature=related
Quote from hajimow:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jze7...feature=related
http://money.msn.com/technology-inv...606&id=15194229
__________________
Work is for people who don't know how to trade!
Quote from stephan31:
--------------
Because I care; on a 2%+ up day in dow/s&p/nq and yet; FB (destroys lives) is weak.
Let us do the wager, eh? I am on the lake in Michigan for the summer and will kindly give you my paypal account particulars.
5 figures good for you? {I wanted to sound like that white dude who believes in 'magic underwear' who is running for the dumbest 'title' CEO of the Estados Unidos}; Romney and his inbred spawn!
My man; I enjoy your moxy--but I am a holy man and I know things!
Just being stupid; let us keep the 'hope and change' alive in this thread, eh?
Our goal as traders is to identify highly volatile stocks that MOVE so that we can either trade options or on margin or ???? doing some efficient swingtrading.
peace & blessings!
The Eponymous Archbishop Hedvig Von Dikkeman V
p.s. Your turn!
p.p.s. Great thread and FB brings out the Type A personalites, eh?
Hola Atticus!
Busy busy week. Let me finish up later today w/ my trades and drink my Green Dragon 'tincture' and I'll get to all of my PM's this weekend.
peace
hedvig
Bearish pattern starts to build in FB as of now 1:22PM. Price is 26.90 after it hit intraday of 27.76
Quote from hajimow:
Bearish pattern starts to build in FB as of now 1:22PM. Price is 26.90 after it hit intraday of 27.76
Quote from tradingjournals:
What if it goes to 30, 31, 33 before it does what you want it to do?
Quote from hajimow:
FB should have never been above $15
If everyone agreed on the price of FB, wouldn't this chart just show the Blue Line at 38?
Then there'd be no need for all the Cool Candles - Totally Boring!!
Quote from hajimow:
I doubt that. FB has many haters. FB is different. The fact that FB is at 27 now is a proof that shit happens. FB should have never been above $15
Myspace was bought by ruppert murdoch's (a protestant though what does it really matter what the buyer's religion is) fox group for a 1 billion dollars and then four years later he sold it for 50 million dollars. What blunder he made...you never know with these social networks they can have their run and then a new and better social network 3.0 comes out and everyone like sheep go herding to that site and rarely vist the old site.
Quote from tradingjournals:
If the market were to rise next week, do you think that FB would still fall (which would be against the overall market)? As for the Facebook the site, I do not use it but it reminds me myspace.
Whoever bought myspace seems to have gotten sticked real hard --- Was the buyer of myspace a zionist?
Quote from tradingjournals:
Whoever bought myspace seems to have gotten sticked real hard --- Was the buyer of myspace a zionist?
Quote from subban:
Myspace was bought by ruppert murdoch's (a protestant though what does it really matter what the buyer's religion is) fox group for a 1 billion dollars and then four years later he sold it for 50 million dollars. What blunder he made...you never know with these social networks they can have their run and then a new and better social network 3.0 comes out and everyone like sheep go herding to that site and rarely vist the old site.
I think the newguy has framed the question almost correctly. it will not boil down to whether their soon to be billion+ users can be monetized (they already are) but whether the net income from that process propels this into the ranks companies that has created large and growing long term shareholder value.
That is what the jury is out on. I see no reason to bet either way on the verdict.
Quote from newguy05:
The chance of facebook losing out to another competitor is slim, the real question is when (if ever) will they find a consistent way to profit from their users like google did.
[/B]
__________________
Swan Noir
Quote from newguy05:
The chance of facebook losing out to another competitor is slim, the real question is when (if ever) will they find a consistent way to profit from their users like google did. Expecting good things at wwdc on the rumored ios + facebook integration.
note: i am long 600x at $26.77 in my ira, long term position.
I will bet. Soon.
Easy money.
The Short SQUEEZE is on! How high will it go?
Not good for the top half of my July Iron Condor!
FB, GRPN and ZINGA will falter soon. A wise investor does not bet on a few days action. Don't you ever think that big traders are taking profit today? GRPN was upgraded today so its effect will evaporate today.
Quote from hajimow:
FB, GRPN and ZINGA will falter soon. A wise investor does not bet on a few days action. Don't you ever think that big traders are taking profit today? GRPN was upgraded today so its effect will evaporate today.
I am short GRPN, FB and ZNGA and long YHOO. Specially GRPN should get hammered soon. FB will not get hammered. Only will go down. Big investors won't bet on FB yet. ZNGA is a also a piece of crap. Lots of good news and potential for YHOO in the buffer.
Quote from hajimow:
I am short GRPN, FB and ZNGA and long YHOO. Specially GRPN should get hammered soon. FB will not get hammered. Only will go down. Big investors won't bet on FB yet. ZNGA is a also a piece of crap. Lots of good news and potential for YHOO in the buffer.
Quote from cactiman:
I lost some money in ZNGA too - Opened in February, Closed in May.
IPO's are more risky of course. No chart patterns to work with.
FB seems to want to stay above 30....
I agree that it looks as if the market wants FB to find support @ 30 ... is it justified though? I can't really say. If someone asked me, "what's facebook's product?" I don't think I could provide a concise answer.
I do not hold FB.
Facebook sells eyeballs just like CBS, NBC or cnn.com. They are a media company that sells their audience -- or more accurately a slice of it that fits demographically -- to corporate America.
Quote from BBenterprises:
I agree that it looks as if the market wants FB to find support @ 30 ... is it justified though? I can't really say. If someone asked me, "what's facebook's product?" I don't think I could provide a concise answer.
I do not hold FB.
__________________
Swan Noir
The business model is there, it just takes time for them to monetize it, some of it is starting already. Ads is just one part of it, the real money to me is all the apps they have, it's a giant market that fb hasnt even begin to scratch the surface yet. Think of it just another apple app store except much bigger.
The potential is very tempting, i plan to ride this out and will be holding & adding to my position over time, unless something fundamental changes like when google+ begin to take over (laugh)
Quote from hajimow:
Sorry to hear that you lost money on ZNGZ. I have not lost money on any of the above stocks yet.
Hola all,
I almost have enough data on F*gbook to begin 'swinging' this little bitch of a stock.
Excited about doing weekly options!!! Volume & a stock 'in the collective consciousness' (though most of the users are little douchebag kids).
Enough of my opinions.
Right now I am looking at HUGE resistance of $33.00 'esque' for the next leg down (to all-time lows and LOWER). We may have already reached the mid-term swing high as of yesterday {again, I am still analyzing and will post here for the next trade-able move I am moving forward with}.
However, this is NOT an outright forecast as of yet. I am consulting the 'stars' and will update going forward.
Let's make some money on this stock, eh?
I look forward to riding the waves of the 'book for many months to come.
GOOD trading!
peace
hedvig
Quote from stephan31:
Hola all,
I almost have enough data on F*gbook to begin 'swinging' this little bitch of a stock.
Excited about doing weekly options!!! Volume & a stock 'in the collective consciousness' (though most of the users are little douchebag kids).
Enough of my opinions.
Right now I am looking at HUGE resistance of $33.00 'esque' for the next leg down (to all-time lows and LOWER). We may have already reached the mid-term swing high as of yesterday {again, I am still analyzing and will post here for the next trade-able move I am moving forward with}.
However, this is NOT an outright forecast as of yet. I am consulting the 'stars' and will update going forward.
Let's make some money on this stock, eh?
I look forward to riding the waves of the 'book for many months to come.
GOOD trading!
peace
hedvig
__________________
Hans
http://peterosterlund.com/investing...k-stock-or-not/
__________________
It's only risky when you stop thinking it's risky.
Having problem staying above $32 but I would venture to guess that it will eventually pas this mark and go to $33/34. The higher it goes is probably the better because it will put huge pressure on the earning. Betting a bad earning with high price has high profit/lost ratio. If the earning beat estimates, it could likely jump close to IPO price or remain unchanged. If they miss earning, it will drop like a rock. Shorting with option for hedging could be the way to go if the premium is reasonable.
From SeekingAlpha:
Facebook's (FB -1%) closely-scrutinized advertising ops receive new endorsements from Ford (previous) and Coca-Cola. Execs praise Facebook as an effective means of engaging with customers, though they say little about its ability to directly drive purchases. The comments arrive as Evercore's Ken Sena starts coverage with a Hold, expressing concerns about mobile payments, slowing PC usage growth, and a late August share lock-up expiration. (also) Comment! [Tech]
Even if earnings beat estimates how significant is that improvement capable of being? Do we know of any additional means to earnings that didn't exist last quarter - anything that might bring P/E under 80 or so?
FB has enormous goodwill value but if they had ways to better exploit their position wouldn't they have done that by now? Why would they delay revenue-generating devices 'til after the IPO?
Zuckerberg indicates that his motives for maintaining control are more about wanting to head a socially meaningful institution than about growing his equity. Not a good indication for FB profits.
__________________
Hans
Would we have expected him to say that he did not want to ever be
thrown out on his ass as Steve Jobs once was? Given how he treated his first provider of capital I think his protestations ring hollow.
[QUOTE]Quote from Hansel H:
Zuckerberg indicates that his motives for maintaining control are more about wanting to head a socially meaningful institution than about growing his equity.
__________________
Swan Noir
Before throwing in the towel, think I'll give FB till next week to fall back into the 20's. A couple of bad days would do it. We'll see. [/B][/QUOTE]
Out the window with that idea!
Too Much Squeeeeeeeezzzzeeee above the 30 line for me.
Closed the July Iron Condors for a (Not Max at least) Loss....
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — I was hoping that retail investors would steer clear of Facebook Inc. shares on their opening day.
Knowing how much value had been taken out of the company in private markets, and how high the stock’s price-to-earnings ratio was at its public debut, it was clear that get-rich-quick thinking wouldn’t end well. But despite at least half a dozen warnings from this column and from many other quarters about the hazards of joining the first-day frenzy, some rushed in. Check out previous Tech Investor columns on Facebook.
Now, one month after the biggest tech IPO ever (FB), new data from an online portfolio-management company shows how much it cost investors to be left holding Mark Zuckerberg’s bag on opening day.
True to form, those investors are still holding on. Two-thirds of the 10,000 members of SigFig.com who either acquired IPO shares or bought them on the first day still own them, according to the latest data from the San Francisco-based firm.
“Facebook wanted more retail involvement, and they got it,” said Terry Banet, the chief investment officer of SigFig who compiled the figures. As of Tuesday’s close, such investors were sitting on an average loss of 16% one month into their Facebook adventure.
A broad swath of IPO investors took the Facebook plunge, as the number of SigFig members who bought the stock was more than 10 times the amount that had bought shares of either Zynga Inc. (ZNGA), Groupon Inc. (GRPN), LinkedIn Corp. (LNKD) or other Internet stocks that went public last year.
When you sell 421 million IPO shares, as Facebook did, there’s plenty of pain to go around. The SigFig users who bought on opening day paid an average price of $39.70, the data show.
Given the issue’s dismal performance in its first month of trading, those folks who sold suffered similar losses, of 17%.
Reuters
Those who flipped the stock on opening day — about 7% of the total, or 700 traders — were lucky to get out when they did, as they averaged a loss of just 0.5%.
As is usually the case, retail investors bought their shares when company insiders were selling, then held them just long enough to lock in their losses. “As the price dropped, we saw selling outpacing buying,” added Banet.
Those who bought on opening day will at least be able to take some comfort in the fact that those who got in on the IPO fared little better. In other words, everyone got skinned to roughly the same degree.
Almost one in five SigFig users who bought Facebook got the stock at its IPO price of $38. That same lucky 18% sold for a median price of $33.20, giving them an average loss of just under 13%.
Now that the stock has bounced off its near-term low of just under $26, holding on to Facebook shares became a more rewarding strategy over the past two weeks, compared with the previous two. (The stock closed Wednesday at $31.60, down 1%.)
The irony, of course, is that the bounce occurred even though Facebook’s second-quarter earnings estimates have been coming down.
I wrote in an earlier column that Facebook would report seasonally strong sales in the second quarter, if its business trends of the last 18 months held. Read more about Facebook’s lumpy sales cycle.
Given that and the massive amount of Facebook selling that’s already taken place, momentum traders may start to get into the stock ahead of the mid-July earnings report.
That could be a viable short-term trading strategy, as long as you hedge your bets with bearish options and remember that it will be a bet, not an investment.
Even though the stock has an unusually large float for a social-media issue, the underwriting banks can still move it if they really want to, and will be able to until most insider lockups expire in about five months.
For those of you thinking about Facebook for the long term, the stock is still expensive, and its record of hitting financial forecasts remains unproven.
But as Facebook holders know too well, at least some of the pain of owning the stock already has been suffered.
John Shinal, a former technology editor of MarketWatch
So do the banks really want to?
__________________
Hans
Quote from Hansel H:
So do the banks really want to? [/B]
__________________
Hans
Quote from stephan31:
--------------
Because I care; on a 2%+ up day in dow/s&p/nq and yet; FB (destroys lives) is weak.
Let us do the wager, eh? I am on the lake in Michigan for the summer and will kindly give you my paypal account particulars.
5 figures good for you? {I wanted to sound like that white dude who believes in 'magic underwear' who is running for the dumbest 'title' CEO of the Estados Unidos}; Romney and his inbred spawn!
My man; I enjoy your moxy--but I am a holy man and I know things!
Just being stupid; let us keep the 'hope and change' alive in this thread, eh?
Our goal as traders is to identify highly volatile stocks that MOVE so that we can either trade options or on margin or ???? doing some efficient swingtrading.
peace & blessings!
The Eponymous Archbishop Hedvig Von Dikkeman V
p.s. Your turn!
p.p.s. Great thread and FB brings out the Type A personalites, eh?
Anyone Betting on Facebook?
I am long. I started my position at $19.00.
Quote from ubstrader_fx:
Anyone Betting on Facebook?
I am long. I started my position at $19.00.
Quote from hajimow:
If they had a 1% faith that FB will go up and is undervalued, I bet you they would keep their shares but they don't.
Quote from hajimow:
I don't think anyone in his right mind would be long FB except swing traders. If anyone could answer just my simple question, I am ready to sell my arms and legs and invest in FB. Till then I will only short FB. Here is the question:
FB IPO was $38 and then it went up to $42 and since then it has dropped and the lows was $17 something. Zukerberg appologizes about stock performance but is optimistic on FB. At the same time, the heavy rich bloated insiders are selling the shares like there is no tomorrow. If they had a 1% faith that FB will go up and is undervalued, I bet you they would keep their shares but they don't. You cannot say that they are selling their shares to pay their mortgage. If I were an insider and knew that next month or in 3 months, I would be able to sell the shares at $24, I would hold on to my shares. Believe me, FB will tank and will tank hard. Very soon, we will see FB drops $3 in a day and makes another 52 weeks low. Online ad business is very popular but no way FB can compete with GOOG or YHOO or...
Quote from ubstrader_fx:
".
Last, Mark is not selling.
Quote from nillionaire:
Peter Thiel sold about 20 million shares, and is still holding about 5.6 million shares. So he sold almost 80% of his shares. That means he still has 20% faith that FB will go up and is undervalued.
A super big, ultra, enourmus gigantic bad sign. Market is on fire and FB is dropping.
Time : 3:00PM on Thursday.
FB will close low of the day. Below 29.61
Quote from hajimow:
I don't think anyone in his right mind would be long FB except swing traders. If anyone could answer just my simple question, I am ready to sell my arms and legs and invest in FB. Till then I will only short FB. Here is the question:
FB IPO was $38 and then it went up to $42 and since then it has dropped and the lows was $17 something. Zukerberg appologizes about stock performance but is optimistic on FB. At the same time, the heavy rich bloated insiders are selling the shares like there is no tomorrow. If they had a 1% faith that FB will go up and is undervalued, I bet you they would keep their shares but they don't. You cannot say that they are selling their shares to pay their mortgage. If I were an insider and knew that next month or in 3 months, I would be able to sell the shares at $24, I would hold on to my shares. Believe me, FB will tank and will tank hard. Very soon, we will see FB drops $3 in a day and makes another 52 weeks low. Online ad business is very popular but no way FB can compete with GOOG or YHOO or...
I believe tomorrow FB will gravitate towards $20 on option expiry day.
i'm betting the farm on FB, because i'm a believer
marc
What a loser this POS is. On a day like today, even crapper like NFLX can manage to edge out some "temporary" gain. Suckerberg must be walking around with his hoodie on again...
CEO wearing hoodie and sandals = Stock price DOA
yaaaaaaa, anddddd ummmmmmmm, ahhhhhhhhh, you knowwwwwwww.
ummmmmmmmmmm.
dumb ass.
-10
__________________
skate to where the puck is going to
be.
Quote from atticus:
The stock will not touch $20.00 in 2012.
__________________
skate to where the puck is going to
be.
Quote from eurotrasher:
nice call.
this just in...............
http://online.barrons.com/article/b...abs_article%3D1
Facebook's 40% plunge from its initial-public-offering price of $38 in May has millions of investors asking a single question: Is the stock a buy? The short answer is "No." After a recent rally, to $23 from a low of $17.55, the stock trades at high multiples of both sales and earnings, even as uncertainty about the outlook for its business grows.
The rapid shift in Facebook's user base to mobile platforms—more than half of users now access the site on smartphones and tablets—appears to have caught the company by surprise. Facebook (ticker: FB) founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg must find a way to monetize its mobile traffic because usage on traditional PCs, where the company makes virtually all of its money, is declining in its large and established markets.
That trend isn't likely to change.
AT ITS CURRENT QUOTE, Facebook trades at 47 times projected 2012 profit of 48 cents a share and 36 times estimated 2013 earnings of 63 cents. Compare that with Google and Apple, two proven technology growth stories, which both trade for about 16 times estimated 2012 earnings. Facebook is valued at $61 billion, or $53 billion excluding its estimated $8 billion in cash. That's more than 10 times estimated 2012 revenue of $5 billion.
Google trades for half that valuation.
What are the shares worth?
Perhaps only $15.
That would be roughly 24 times projected 2013 profit and six times estimated 2013 revenue of $6 billion, still no bargain price. Wall Street's consensus estimate for 2013 shows earnings rising 31%, to 63 cents a share.
That pro forma number is generous because it ignores Facebook's very significant stock-based compensation. The company has been issuing gobs of restricted stock to engineers and other key employees in the hot Silicon Valley job market to prevent them from being lured away to the next hot tech start-up—the next Facebook.
Facebook issued $1.4 billion of restricted stock in 2011, or nearly $500,000 per employee. So far this year, the company has doled out $1 billion of restricted stock.
Facebook's reported stock-based compensation expense—based on the amortization of several years of stock grants—could total 20 cents a share next year. Subtract that from the 2013 consensus earnings number, and the shares trade at 50 times earnings.
At $15 they would still be valued at a rich 35 times earnings.
IN COMING MONTHS, FACEBOOK'S share price could be depressed by significant sales by holders subject to expiring lock-up restrictions established at the time of the IPO.
Already, co-founder Dustin Moskovitz has sold 7.5 million shares, or 5% of his stake, and early investor and director Peter Thiel has sold 20.1 million shares, or 80% of his holding (see table, Major Insider Sales Since IPO).
Some 234 million shares (including options and restricted stock) become available for sale on Oct. 29, followed by another 777 million on Nov. 14.
That's a lot relative to the current float of as much as 692 million shares, representing the 421 million sold at the IPO and another 271 million shares on which lock-up restrictions already have expired.
The total share count is 2.65 billion.
next up.........
a puke thru the magic number of $15.33 coming to a quote screen near you.
Quote from riskarb:
Man... you keep digging yourself a deeper hole. I'm done with you, you're not worth my time.
A word of advice, grow up, find some badly needed humility and get a new handle.
You may want to ask yourself how pathetic it appears to run multiple aliases.
That appears pathological at first glance, and I imagine my professional background is a better judge.
arb.
__________________
skate to where the puck is going to
be.
this is going to be like a vonage VG
reasons:
1) alot of people dont use FB
2) most of the accounts on FB are not real or are for scamming
identity theft purposes
anybody who puts their real name on FB is a fool. Thats like me telling the public my Social Security number.
the stock goes lower. might do a reverse split in the future.
blackguard
Facebook is nowhere near as popular as it was. Twitter is the main thing now since people can post pictures up on it as well. A ton of people still use facebook and will continue to, but I don't see them being able to increase their number of accounts unless something big changes.
FCX and others ... the majority of accounts on FB are bogus
I agree Twitter is better, I have many friends tel me that.
we will see what happens
blackguard
FAKEBOOK
think about that.
new word for FB
blackguard
I just cant see any upside to FB for a while
I was talking to a doctor and he asked me about FB. I had to explain that I don't trade stocks just futures, but I said if he wants to invest in it now and hold it for many years, then yes I think its a good investment.
bought some puts on FB this week when it hit my 50days EMA. works magically.
the share-lock up period will pass, FB may be just signles in next several months.
Giving your doctor investment advise on something you admittedly have no expertise in is just brilliant.
Quote from oraclewizard77:
I was talking to a doctor and he asked me about FB. I had to explain that I don't trade stocks just futures, but I said if he wants to invest in it now and hold it for many years, then yes I think its a good investment.
fb is a great brand but you need someone to make it a search engine, maps, mobile, and everything else. its a monster but its so over priced that the right players can't buy it and make it what it could be so they have to find talent within and that's going to be hard.
Quote from oraclewizard77:
I was talking to a doctor and he asked me about FB. I had to explain that I don't trade stocks just futures, but I said if he wants to invest in it now and hold it for many years, then yes I think its a good investment.
__________________
skate to where the puck is going to
be.
I wonder wonder wonder who,
who wrote the book of love
http://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-statistics
marc
FB: a buy @ $3.00!!!
Just like renn!!
FB is basically impossible to value. Right now, they seem pricey, but if they get just a couple of things right or more right than wrong, they could easily ramp.
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
FB is basically impossible to value. Right now, they seem pricey, but if they get just a couple of things right or more right than wrong, they could easily ramp.
Facebook is worth no more than $5.
Thats where its headed once people move on to something new, its already boring and played out, how many pictures do people need to take of their food or where they are going next, who gives a fuck!
Quote from S2007S:
Facebook is worth no more than $5.
Thats where its headed once people move on to something new, its already boring and played out, how many pictures do people need to take of their food or where they are going next, who gives a fuck!
I have no idea what FB is worth but if they are losing their cachet with their core audince what prevents them from spiraling down like MySpace?
Quote from syntrader:
In a way I agree with you, but you have to remember that FB makes money selling ads.
FB in a way is played out in terms of users - yes, many people may be using it less, especially teens, but you have to remember that FB makes their money from ads. If the ad buyers can get the ROI they want, they will pay higher rates.
The topping on the cake, FB margins are good, they don't have to spend a bunch of $ to create content like AOL or Yahoo does.
__________________
Swan Noir
[QUOTE]Quote from Swan Noir:
I have no idea what FB is worth but if they are losing their cachet with their core audince what prevents them from spiraling down like MySpace? [/QUOTE
Good question.
MySpace was never a good place for advertisers. The ad agencies that spend money on ad campaigns used to call it a "media ghetto" - meaning that: 1) the demographic was not desirable, 2) the content that the ads showed up around was "low quality content"
Both MySpace and FB are social networks in the ad selling business, that is their biz model and that is what they have in common, but not much else. How many users they have may contribute to revenue, but the model itself is about how much revenue can they generate per user - and FB can generate a lot more revenue per user than MySpace.
Interesting distinctions. Here is the follow up: While FB has a much more desirable demographic today it is hard (maybe impossible?) to stay cool. Being cool ain't easy but staying cool over the years is Apple territory -- rare indeed.
You have made the point that FB's value is not just the zillion people they have but that in that zillion there are a half-a-zillion really worth having. What happens when half of that half leave? Even if they replace them with "less cool" users doesn't the intrinsic value of the audience they sell go down?
I buy your premise that they, like media in general, are not simply selling eyeball but, instead, are selling eyeballs that have desirable demographics and are giving the advertisers the ability to segment and buy which ones work for them. But to give those guys on Madison Avenue those sliceable and diceable segments they value most you must stay cool. I'm well past the age when anyone is cool and you should take my word for it ... it ain't easy to stay cool for very long!!
BTW ... I'm not an FB basher. When I say I have no idea of its value I really mean that. Could be $5 or $50 a share a year from now ... beats me as to how to predict that but I do think what we are speaking of here is highly relevant to value. My Space never had the juice but we (or at least I) really do not know if FB can keep the juice.
Lose the juice and, in a trendy environment, you lose more juice with every article and online post that says the juice is gone. How hard is it to imagine that we will hear people in SoHo and Willamsburg say "you mean you are still on FB" a year from now?
Quote from syntrader:
[QUOTE]Quote from Swan Noir:
I have no idea what FB is worth but if they are losing their cachet with their core audince what prevents them from spiraling down like MySpace? [/QUOTE
Good question.
MySpace was never a good place for advertisers. The ad agencies that spend money on ad campaigns used to call it a "media ghetto" - meaning that: 1) the demographic was not desirable, 2) the content that the ads showed up around was "low quality content"
Both MySpace and FB are social networks in the ad selling business, that is their biz model and that is what they have in common, but not much else. How many users they have may contribute to revenue, but the model itself is about how much revenue can they generate per user - and FB can generate a lot more revenue per user than MySpace.
__________________
Swan Noir
i have a question:
those 1.5 billion [or so] shares coming unlocked in the next few months -
are they already calculated into the current EPS, PE and market capitalization?
i will also refrain from "knowing" where FB will be a year from now,
but i have bet the farm on it...
marc
Quote from Swan Noir:
Interesting distinctions. Here is the follow up: While FB has a much more desirable demographic today it is hard (maybe impossible?) to stay cool. Being cool ain't easy but staying cool over the years is Apple territory -- rare indeed.
You have made the point that FB's value is not just the zillion people they have but that in that zillion there are a half-a-zillion really worth having. What happens when half of that half leave? Even if they replace them with "less cool" users doesn't the intrinsic value of the audience they sell go down?
I buy your premise that they, like media in general, are not simply selling eyeball but, instead, are selling eyeballs that have desirable demographics and are giving the advertisers the ability to segment and buy which ones work for them. But to give those guys on Madison Avenue those sliceable and diceable segments they value most you must stay cool. I'm well past the age when anyone is cool and you should take my word for it ... it ain't easy to stay cool for very long!!
BTW ... I'm not an FB basher. When I say I have no idea of its value I really mean that. Could be $5 or $50 a share a year from now ... beats me as to how to predict that but I do think what we are speaking of here is highly relevant to value. My Space never had the juice but we (or at least I) really do not know if FB can keep the juice.
Lose the juice and, in a trendy environment, you lose more juice with every article and online post that says the juice is gone. How hard is it to imagine that we will hear people in SoHo and Willamsburg say "you mean you are still on FB" a year from now?
Quote from marcoPolo21:
i have a question:
those 1.5 billion [or so] shares coming unlocked in the next few months -
are they already calculated into the current EPS, PE and market capitalization?
i will also refrain from "knowing" where FB will be a year from now,
but i have bet the farm on it...
marc
I spent big chunks of my life writing ad copy for a fairly diverse set of businesses I owned here and in Europe including three brokerage firms and North America's second largest Stop Smoking Seminar group. In the stop smoking business we used hypnosis at large (400 to 600 people) seminars in hotel ballrooms.
I've spent millions on advertising (mostly print of one form or another) and of course ROI is key. But knowing that metric is key does not mean that you can leave out the component parts of getting there in your analysis. As you have pointed out the "ghetto" demographic of My Space degraded the value of their eyeballs. That didn't happen because the audience good it happened because the segments agencies wanted were not purchasable on My Space. It is never the cool factor that the advertiser calculates but it can be the degree of cool (it is all a matter of degree) that determines what demographic is migrating to you or deserting you in droves.
Look at the Apple phenomena. Those that had an IPhone in NYC had to have ATT as there carrier at one time. The number of dropped calls was so high that some people -- including my own brother -- carried another phone to actually make and receive calls. The loyalty of THE key American demographic -- young with $$$ -- that Apple commands and keeps is astonishing. Excuse the vernacular but it's like they are giving you a free piece of ass (rated 9 or higher on the Richter scale) everytime you buy another product.
The company is worth more than Exxon -- it's insane. They blow one product cycle and the magic is gone except, so far, they have not blown any. Cachet is great when you have -- particularly it in media -- precisely because it contributes mightily to the ROI you can deliver yet still maintain your margins. The key is how do you keep it, the ROI and the margins. It is my understanding that Steve Jobs is currently (and maybe permanently) unavailable to advise on the subject. And no one else seems to know much about staying cool. A few guys know how to be cool but now we are talking about extending the half life of cool.
Only Jobs knew the secret.
Quote from syntrader:
All good points you make. The hipsters I know - the kids of my friends- yeah, they barely go to FB anymore. However, I believe I have an understanding of the ad biz (have friends in it) is that its not the cool factor that keeps ad buyers spending on FB. it might seem that way on the surface, but what actually keeps them spending is ROI. They will stop spending when they no longer get the ROI and/or they can get better ROI elsewhere. Could that happen? Yes, and if that happens my investment in FB will be wrong. However, its a bet I'm willing to make given that I think I know a bit more about how advertising works than the average trader or investor who thinks in terms of number of users.
Time will tell. This will take a while to play out.
__________________
Swan Noir
Quote from Swan Noir:
The company is worth more than Exxon -- it's insane.
__________________
skate to where the puck is going to
be.
Quote from Swan Noir:
I spent big chunks of my life writing ad copy for a fairly diverse set of businesses I owned here and in Europe including three brokerage firms and North America's second largest Stop Smoking Seminar group. In the stop smoking business we used hypnosis at large (400 to 600 people) seminars in hotel ballrooms.
I've spent millions on advertising (mostly print of one form or another) and of course ROI is key. But knowing that metric is key does not mean that you can leave out the component parts of getting there in your analysis. As you have pointed out the "ghetto" demographic of My Space degraded the value of their eyeballs. That didn't happen because the audience good it happened because the segments agencies wanted were not purchasable on My Space. It is never the cool factor that the advertiser calculates but it can be the degree of cool (it is all a matter of degree) that determines what demographic is migrating to you or deserting you in droves.
Look at the Apple phenomena. Those that had an IPhone in NYC had to have ATT as there carrier at one time. The number of dropped calls was so high that some people -- including my own brother -- carried another phone to actually make and receive calls. The loyalty of THE key American demographic -- young with $$$ -- that Apple commands and keeps is astonishing. Excuse the vernacular but it's like they are giving you a free piece of ass (rated 9 or higher on the Richter scale) everytime you buy another product.
The company is worth more than Exxon -- it's insane. They blow one product cycle and the magic is gone except, so far, they have not blown any. Cachet is great when you have -- particularly it in media -- precisely because it contributes mightily to the ROI you can deliver yet still maintain your margins. The key is how do you keep it, the ROI and the margins. It is my understanding that Steve Jobs is currently (and maybe permanently) unavailable to advise on the subject. And no one else seems to know much about staying cool. A few guys know how to be cool but now we are talking about extending the half life of cool.
Only Jobs knew the secret.
My metrics were simple to compute but no less precise. In the seminar business I computed how many asses filled how many chairs and at what cost per ass to the penny. In the brokerage business I knew my lead cost from every piece of creative and every media choice.
Every business I have been in that involved ad expense revolved around direct response. Digital did not invent metrics. I once did a true AB split run in the Cherry Hill NJ daily paper. The A version of the ad brought me attendees at $13 each and the B version came in over $50 per.
None of the digital metrics are new or more precise. What they are is faster, cheaper and less of a pain to employ. Those are all important things but for those of us that took the pains to get it right in the day got the numbers and used them very effectively. In some ways more effectively since the mechanics eluded many and those of us on top of it beat the others like rented mules.
The fact remains -- FB has a very valuable audience but will they keep it? Will mobile belong to Google and others? All the ability to calculate metrics in the world means nothing if you end up being less cool than the demographic you need to sell. Lots of leading ladies went from starring roles to character roles the year after even the face lifts and makeup could not hide their age. More of them went into retirement.
Quote from syntrader:
I thought we were talking about FB, not APPL. But I can see your point regarding the cool factor. I just think that its a bit of a red herring.
With your experience in the ad world, did it involve digital ads? The reason I ask is that digital ads are handled very differently then print or other mediums - the biggest difference being that digital ads are constantly and continuously being measured for effectiveness, measured with hard data about those who see and interact with the ads or respond to an ad - maybe not clicking on it but seeing it and then maybe 3 days later going to the web site to check it out. In other words the ad world has changed a lot with the web, and digital ad buyers know a lot more about which ads work and how to measure ROI.
__________________
Swan Noir
Quote from Swan Noir:
My metrics were simple to compute but no less precise. In the seminar business I computed how many asses filled how many chairs and at what cost per ass to the penny. In the brokerage business I knew my lead cost from every piece of creative and every media choice.
Every business I have been in that involved ad expense revolved around direct response. Digital did not invent metrics. I once did a true AB split run in the Cherry Hill NJ daily paper. The A version of the ad brought me attendees at $13 each and the B version came in over $50 per.
None of the digital metrics are new or more precise. What they are is faster, cheaper and less of a pain to employ. Those are all important things but for those of us that took the pains to get it right in the day got the numbers and used them very effectively. In some ways more effectively since the mechanics eluded many and those of us on top of it beat the others like rented mules.
The fact remains -- FB has a very valuable audience but will they keep it? Will mobile belong to Google and others? All the ability to calculate metrics in the world means nothing if you end up being less cool than the demographic you need to sell. Lots of leading ladies went from starring roles to character roles the year after even the face lifts and makeup could not hide their age. More of them went into retirement.
No ... they do not need the cool factor but FB does as they are now structured. They are built around cool to a degree. Google is, as you know, a very different business model and not a real comparison.
While the ads themselves could not track future behavior we did offer incentives for the client to call us toll free and report results etc. That though would be a species argument on my part and not one I seriously put forth. The reality is that cookies are a new weapon in the arsenal ... and, I assume, very valuable.
Quote from syntrader:
I disagree with your statement, "None of the digital metrics are new or more precise".
With cookies they know what ads you've seen and can track your behavior - do you go to the advertisers web site - for the next 30 days more or less. Print ads can't track future behavior.
Google is an interesting example - their ads and their audience are not dependent on a cool factor - search ads and text ads on run-of-the mill web sites targeting the average Joe brings in a lot of money. They don't need a cool factor to haul in the dough.
__________________
Swan Noir
Quote from Swan Noir:
No ... they do not need the cool factor but FB does as they are now structured. They are built around cool to a degree. Google is, as you know, a very different business model and not a real comparison.
While the ads themselves could not track future behavior we did offer incentives for the client to call us toll free and report results etc. That though would be a species argument on my part and not one I seriously put forth. The reality is that cookies are a new weapon in the arsenal ... and, I assume, very valuable.
I think you guys are overestimating the importance of the cool factor. It was crucial in the beginning, yes, but now Fb is totally mainstream. In fact, I would argue that coolness is irrelevant to it because most of their users are people who don't really have a clue about what is cool or not. They are moms and dads and grandparents, not just urban hipsters or kids. And these mainstream users are not likely to migrate en mass to the next cool platform. They have their online lives already posted on FB, and it is a pain in the neck to learn something new.
To me, the analgoy is AMZN, a company that has never really made any money but trades at a stratospheric P/E because everyone sees the potential for it to mint money. In some ways, it is easier to imagine FB doing that than AMZN, because retail will always be a tough business. FB is unique, has huge barriers to entry through the network effect and has a massive user base already.
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
I think you guys are overestimating the importance of the cool factor. It was crucial in the beginning, yes, but now Fb is totally mainstream. In fact, I would argue that coolness is irrelevant to it because most of their users are people who don't really have a clue about what is cool or not. They are moms and dads and grandparents, not just urban hipsters or kids. And these mainstream users are not likely to migrate en mass to the next cool platform. They have their online lives already posted on FB, and it is a pain in the neck to learn something new.
To me, the analgoy is AMZN, a company that has never really made any money but trades at a stratospheric P/E because everyone sees the potential for it to mint money. In some ways, it is easier to imagine FB doing that than AMZN, because retail will always be a tough business. FB is unique, has huge barriers to entry through the network effect and has a massive user base already.
Quote from syntrader:
Yes, the cool factor is a bit of a red herring, and they have a big moat (barrier to entry) around them as I said earlier.....
__________________
skate to where the puck is going to
be.
Quote from eurotrasher:
Buffett likes moats and he ain't long.
Leave it to Munger to take it one step further. "I don't invest in what I don't understand. And I don't want to understand Facebook," Munger said.
In fact, it's not only that he doesn't understand it -- it's that he dislikes the whole idea of it.
"I don't want people putting all this personal stuff into a permanent record when they are 15 years of age. I think it's counterproductive. "
And in case you're wondering -- neither Buffett nor Munger is on Facebook.
FB = posting your day's updates = lame
FB = showing off your cat videos = lamer
its not about the that type of value. its about $.
please short more.
There is nothing of value in FB, just a college kid who got enormously lucky, that's it. FaceBook is an hallucination to make money..........
FB +5% on the day.
Quote from eurotrasher:
Buffett likes moats and he ain't long.
Munger takes it one step further. "I don't invest in what I don't understand. And I don't want to understand it...."
Charlie dislikes the whole idea of it......
"I don't want people putting all this personal stuff into a permanent record when they are 15 years of age. I think it's counterproductive. "
And in case you're wondering -- neither Buffett nor Munger is on Facebook.
FB = signing up = lame
FB = posting your day's updates = lamer
FB = showing off your cat videos = lamest
There is nothing of value in FB, just a college kid who got enormously lucky, that's it.
FaceBook is an hallucination to make money..........
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
Seriously, who gives a crap ?
__________________
skate to where the puck is going to
be.
Quote from atticus:
FB +5% on the day.
__________________
skate to where the puck is going to
be.
those 1.5 billion [or so] shares coming unlocked in the next few months -
are they already calculated into the current EPS, PE and market capitalization?
thanks
marc
Quote from marcoPolo21:
those 1.5 billion [or so] shares coming unlocked in the next few months -
are they already calculated into the current EPS, PE and market capitalization?
thanks
marc
confused
it seemed clear to me,
but maybe i don't understand
looking at FB on Yahoo, at this moment Friday:
the Market Cap is 46.70 B
the PE is 75.43
the EPS is 0.29
are the 1.5 billion shares coming unlocked,
already included in those numbers?
does the EPS include those 1.5 Billion shares, or not?
if not,
it seems the EPS would go down some
I have a feeling nothing changes,
and they are already factored in, but...
thanks
marc
The kid may be a scum bag (what he supposedly did to the Argentinian friend), he may have had a lot of good luck in the process but to believe he is "just a college kid that got enormously lucky" is simply crazy.
The "kid" has navigated many a minefield adroitly, built his fortune and may well end up running and controlling a very significant chunk of the future. NO ONE does that by being a lucky college kid. No matter what the future brings for him there is real talent, discipline, balls etc., etc., etc. that resides inside him. Hard not to sell it for a hundred million when they knock on your door. Hard to press a big bet after making a dozen passes knowing that things can always break bad.
Got to give him his props!
[QUOTE]Quote from eurotrasher:
There is nothing of value in FB, just a college kid who got enormously lucky, that's it.
/QUOTE]
__________________
Swan Noir
This is the only way i would bet on Facebook:
Citigroup (NYSE: CITI) has launched $1.1 million of auto-callable bonds
linked to Facebook's stock price. Each bond costs $1,000 and Citigroup pays
a 17% coupon, or interest rate, per year that's paid quarterly. If Facebook
shares rise above the price of $19.34, then investors get the principle
returned plus the coupon payment. If the price drops below that limit, then
investors only get the coupon payment.......
rest of the story coming soon
Must be 1.1 billion not million.
Quote from marketsurfer:
This is the only way i would bet on Facebook:
Citigroup (NYSE: CITI) has launched $1.1 million of auto-callable bonds
linked to Facebook's stock price. Each bond costs $1,000 and Citigroup pays
a 17% coupon, or interest rate, per year that's paid quarterly. If Facebook
shares rise above the price of $19.34, then investors get the principle
returned plus the coupon payment. If the price drops below that limit, then
investors only get the coupon payment.......
rest of the story coming soon
__________________
Swan Noir
Here's the only way I would bet on Facebook:
http://www.streetauthority.com/grow...facebook-459820
A 17% yield!
surf
Quote from Swan Noir:
Must be 1.1 billion not million.
bought some FB yesterday closing, noticed it jumped in AH, bought more at the closing today, made the best trade this week.
bought 21 0.05 ~0.2. FB seems attractive to bottom pickers.
just luck. when the trend is well defined, play the contrary, not the obvious.
that works. initially I want to buy some puts of RIMM for the earning, but noticed it moved up from hiting the new low. that hold me off.
eurotrasher, I reported you for being a shill account for shopster
__________________
I'm a elite trader newb, but I admire a few of the older users here for being real traders. There are lots of spammers, but still many excellent traders around here.
Quote from marketsurfer:
no its million-- small offering 1000, $1000 bonds--
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d..._424b2-0288.htm
http://www.streetauthority.com/grow...facebook-459820
Quote from eurotrasher:
Buffett likes moats and he ain't long.
Munger takes it one step further. "I don't invest in what I don't understand. And I don't want to understand it...."
Charlie dislikes the whole idea of it......
"I don't want people putting all this personal stuff into a permanent record when they are 15 years of age. I think it's counterproductive. "
And in case you're wondering -- neither Buffett nor Munger is on Facebook.
FB = signing up = lame
FB = posting your day's updates = lamer
FB = showing off your cat videos = lamest
There is nothing of value in FB, just a college kid who got enormously lucky, that's it.
FaceBook is an hallucination to make money..........
__________________
I'm a elite trader newb, but I admire a few of the older users here for being real traders. There are lots of spammers, but still many excellent traders around here.
I'm dumping my FB. Probably just a one day reaction to the Zynga horror show, but I suspect there will be plenty of time to buy it back.
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
I'm dumping my FB. Probably just a one day reaction to the Zynga horror show, but I suspect there will be plenty of time to buy it back.
Quote from nillionaire:
FB is sick now. ZNGA opened near the low and closed at the high, while FB opened near the high and closed at the low.
By "plenty of time", do you mean 18 days, or do you think they will have disappointing earnings on Oct 23?
FB does not have a history. I'm not going to touch it until at least May next year when I can scroll back in history and see how it behaves.
Out at 20. Very poor exit.
I would think this should retest 17.55, since that wasn't really a bottom that had a chance to form. It gapped up the next day on news.
Quote from nillionaire:
Out at 20. Very poor exit.
I would think this should retest 17.55, since that wasn't really a bottom that had a chance to form. It gapped up the next day on news.
I'm not even trying to bet until I see some history...
Remember when Microsoft was all the rage? That was a real company with real parts.
This social media crap, although relevant, produces nothing. Other than seeing stupid pictures of your friends, the only thing these sites can do is get you in trouble when you're trying to get in to a school or trying to get a job.
Quote from Bison42:
This social media crap, although relevant, produces nothing. Other than seeing stupid pictures of your friends, the only thing these sites can do is get you in trouble when you're trying to get in to a school or trying to get a job. [/B]
i'm surprised fb isn't taking a beating yet. lockup release is right around the corner. tempted to short...
I decided to open an anonymous Facebook page,
just to see what it's all about.
And I notice there is no Regular advertising, like you see on most web pages.
I suppose as a last resort,
Facebook could allow advertisers on these pages, to generate income.
But you could lose a lot of accounts doing that,
but many would still stay. And, from what I read,
the trend is many people are going Mobile.
marc
What triggered this buying and volume spike?
Quote from nillionaire:
What triggered this buying and volume spike?
Quote from marcoPolo21:
"mobile advertising" [apps] news, I think
marc
I had to take a little heat on it, but feel a lot better now. i'm thinking long term on FB, i like the focus on mobile.
i know the lock-up will bring headwinds, but Zuckerberg and some other BOD members publicly stated that they will not sell any shares until next year, one year after lock-up. Employees will probably dump, but Zuck and BOD have a lot and they are holding. I also think many of those shares getting sold will be absorbed by HFs.
Quote from syntrader:
Agree.
I got in at 20.5, planning on holding for a long time. It's not a trade.
This is not my typical way of thinking about an investment, but here's why I bought:
1) Although FB's user growth may be slowing, the money comes from ads. If they can get the right ads in front of the right people (they have a ton of user data), advertisers will gladly pay higher rates which can more than compensate for slowing user growth. (GOOG user growth has slowed, but their ads have such a high ROI that they can charge more than the other search engines - as long as FB does not start to lose a significant number of users, slowing user growth is not the main concern)
2) Living in the SF Bay area I know that there is a war for talent among tech co.s, and FB - even with its depressed stock - is still seen as an attractive place for top talent. If you know what RSUs are, you'll understand. FB has some big issues to tackle like better monetizing mobile ads, and if anyone can figure out a way to do it, it will be those guys. This is not a trade, I like to invest in co.s that combine innovative products with top talent in a niche industry (social media)
3) FB has a large moat around it, making it harder for a new social network to pass it. Yes, it could happen, but I don't think its likely. I've also owned GOOG and APPL for some similar reasons. Buy the leader in a growing industry.
the first time it jumps, sell, still long-tern down trend.
I bought 25/24.5put after the earning jump.
faded the move, it works.
wall street is full of traps.
Bet on one of the worst performing IPOs of all-time? No thanks.
However, as Facebook grows it's virtual currency the less it will rely primarily on advertising. Over half of social gamers play games on Facebook, in numbers, that's around 300 million active gamers each month.
As the game developers make virtual goodies more attractive, I think we'll see more than the current 20% of people who have purchased them. Plus, online gambling getting in on the action is imminent (makes $30 billion per month), this could be a great pairing of Facebook (who have the people) and online gambling (who have the money).
I have this ironic bet on Facebook, which this thread reminds me of. It's an actual bet on the Facebook shares falling every day via the Facebook game Bookie Mania. I'm winning on that everyday...Pity it's virtual!
Again, there is not enough history on carts to perform any liable TA... There are thousands of other stocks, so, why to bother by FB (my kids use this abbreviation as bad female dog )
Quote from syntrader:
Zuckerberg and some other BOD members publicly stated that they will not sell any shares until next year.
__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.
Quote from Kendo86:
Bet on one of the worst performing IPOs of all-time? No thanks.
However, as Facebook grows it's virtual currency the less it will rely primarily on advertising. Over half of social gamers play games on Facebook, in numbers, that's around 300 million active gamers each month.
As the game developers make virtual goodies more attractive, I think we'll see more than the current 20% of people who have purchased them. Plus, online gambling getting in on the action is imminent (makes $30 billion per month), this could be a great pairing of Facebook (who have the people) and online gambling (who have the money).
I have this ironic bet on Facebook, which this thread reminds me of. It's an actual bet on the Facebook shares falling every day via the Facebook game Bookie Mania. I'm winning on that everyday...Pity it's virtual!
Faceplant:
played out like napster.
__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.
Quote from marketsurfer:
Here's the only way I would bet on Facebook:
http://www.streetauthority.com/grow...facebook-459820
A 17% yield!
surf
Quote from MR173:
Nice one. I just went on Bookie Mania (although I found it at www.bookiemania.com) and made a bet on a bunch of shares and on a few sports too.
On your point though, I would bet (pardon the pun) that gambling is not going to be as big for Facebook as they seem to think - everyone thinks gambling companies make more than they do.
What is your handle on Bookie Mania?
Quote from marketsurfer:
Anyone in the "most sure" way to make $$ with FACEBOOK?
surf
still in it from 20.5
past week was unpleasant, but if we get through this lock-up, i think the worst is over for FB....barring any unforeseen developments or major broad market moves
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...198#post3660198
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...744#post3637744
All times are GMT. The time now is 09:27 PM.