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Are there any human traders left?
These markets are pure algos. I stopped trading the mini s@p last year because of the algos. Now they are in the European stock indices. What markets are left to trade?
i was studying market action more closely for last couple months(since i'm not happy with my good old system performance) and became more and more convinced that those bots are fairly predictable. specially on liquid markets.maybe it's not that bad to have them around..they been programmed by humans anyway. looks to me that they been programmed around basic\simple TA support\resistance\breakeouts etc...
which only makes sense, if the markets are dominated by algorithms then patterns are now certain to repeat.
Re: Are there any human traders left?
Quote from kamm:
These markets are pure algos.
__________________
More Than 90% of Small Traders Lose. THEY JUST LOSE!!!!!
Re: Re: Are there any human traders left?
Quote from emg:
Re: Re: Are there any human traders left?
Quote from emg:
As of now, small, medium, and large HFT firms are wiping out small traders, traditional prop traders/large traders, and traditional institutional traders.
In 5 years from now, HFT vs HFT. That will wiped out small hft firms vs large institutional hft (Goldman, Getco, etc)
10 years from now, HFT will be controlling your mutual funds, 401K, pension, etc etc etc
__________________
More Than 90% of Small Traders Lose. THEY JUST LOSE!!!!!
emg..are talking to yourself? 
------------04-24-12 01:16 PM
Quote from emg:
As of now, small, medium, and large HFT firms are wiping out small traders, traditional prop traders/large traders, and traditional institutional traders.
In 5 years from now, HFT vs HFT. That will wiped out small hft firms vs large institutional hft (Goldman, Getco, etc)
10 years from now, HFT will be controlling your mutual funds, 401K, pension, etc etc etc
30 years from now, the introduction of AI (artificial intelligence) HFT vs Traditional HFT.
Small Traders, HFT will blow u away. far far away-----------
Quote from Bob111:
emg..are talking to yourself?
Re: Re: Are there any human traders left?
Quote from emg:
As of now, small, medium, and large HFT firms are wiping out small traders, traditional prop traders/large traders, and traditional institutional traders.
In 5 years from now, HFT vs HFT. That will wiped out small hft firms vs large institutional hft (Goldman, Getco, etc)
10 years from now, HFT will be controlling your mutual funds, 401K, pension, etc etc etc
__________________
We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927
Re: Re: Re: Are there any human traders left?
Quote from emg:
30 years from now, the introduction of AI (artificial intelligence) HFT vs Traditional HFT.
__________________
More Than 90% of Small Traders Lose. THEY JUST LOSE!!!!!
Quote from Bob111:
i was studying market action more closely for last couple months(since i'm not happy with my good old system performance) and became more and more convinced that those bots are fairly predictable. specially on liquid markets.maybe it's not that bad to have them around..they been programmed by humans anyway. looks to me that they been programmed around basic\simple TA support\resistance\breakeouts etc...
__________________
"Those that know ain't saying, and those saying don't know." - E. A. Neumann
A bear since 1958 and proud of it.
For those who worry about this, think of it this way. If your strategy had a positive expectancy before the age of robot algos, it was because your strategy took money away from another set of traders who had a strategy with a negative expectancy.
OK, now just picture that same set of traders implementing their net negative expectancy strategy as an algo, rather than manually. If your strategy still works, it should still take money from that set of traders, regardless of whether those traders are trading their net negative expectancy strategy manually or via an algo. How did those traders get the capital to create and deploy the algo? The same way they got the capital to lose in the pre-algo days.
If you can't make money now even though you did before, it's because the traders from whom you used to take money are gone. You either need to learn how to take money from a different set of traders or, like a pack of animals which has lost its hunting ground, you have to move on to another hunting ground.
At the end of the day, in a zero-sum game, you are either the negative part of the zero-sum or the positive part. How you implement your strategy (algo, robot, manually or smoke signals) is secondary to your strategy being smarter than at least 1 other person in the marketplace you're trying to profit from.
It's like the old joke about the two guys running from a bear, with the guy who's behind his friend saying "You can't outrun this bear" and the friend replying "I don't have to. I only have to outrun you". You don't have to outrun every algo, you only have to outrun one. If you can't do that, well, then you are no longer suited for trading.
It's really that simple.
It doesn't seem to matter which strategy emg uses, he loses, he just loses. Lol.
Quote from Rob227:
It doesn't seem to matter which strategy emg uses, he loses, he just loses. Lol.
__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.
That's the problem with trading, the fact that us humans are all against each other, in any other field you would get help, we would god forbid actually be on the same side and help each other, but instead no one REALLY helps anyone else(other than basic BS) because in the trading world we are taking each others money off each other.
So when the HFT aren't taking us out, we are taking each other out.
We'd rather laugh and point at someone who loses money consistently instead of helping them and showing each other these "patterns" that are supposedly so obvious with HFT. Guess that's why there's patterns in the first place, we're so predictable right 
I tend to agree in that I see HFT being all that is trading in a few years time, but it's the same in most industries really, everything becoming more computerised, doing jobs that humans used to do, and in much cheaper, faster, more efficient ways, which is probably why in the future we will be completely useless......unless you have an IT/Programming degree.......or do jobs that no one else wants to do(cleaning, fixing/repairs etc...)
We are our own worst enemy. Some adapt, some don't.
Quote from shopster:
are we voting...........i second that motion...........
looks like DELUSIONAL PARANOID SCHIZOPHRENIC SYMPTOMS
s
Quote from booked:
That's the problem with trading, the fact that us humans are all against each other, in any other field you would get help, we would god forbid actually be on the same side and help each other, but instead no one REALLY helps anyone else(other than basic BS) because in the trading world we are taking each others money off each other.
So when the HFT aren't taking us out, we are taking each other out.
We'd rather laugh and point at someone who loses money consistently instead of helping them and showing each other these "patterns" that are supposedly so obvious with HFT. Guess that's why there's patterns in the first place, we're so predictable right
I tend to agree in that I see HFT being all that is trading in a few years time, but it's the same in most industries really, everything becoming more computerised, doing jobs that humans used to do, and in much cheaper, faster, more efficient ways, which is probably why in the future we will be completely useless......unless you have an IT/Programming degree.......or do jobs that no one else wants to do(cleaning, fixing/repairs etc...)
We are our own worst enemy. Some adapt, some don't.
If your strategy is being hurt by HFT, chances are it is not a good strategy to trade. I am not affected at all by HFT in ES, matter of fact, I find often it helps propel my position to targets much faster.
Trading has always come down to adapting to market patterns, and if one says other, they best trade mutual funds.
Re: Are there any human traders left?
Just look at the US demographics and median household income levels at certain geographic areas....luxury cars still sell (perhaps used), homes have many cash buyers...take my word for it....
...there are lots of savvy speculators not too many "traders", if you see the distinction. Many recently unemployed semiretired people are savvy "active" traders/investors and the number is growing. Some have sizable savings and retirement funds. They are not the full time, day trader type so many on ET do not understand them, they seldom come here they are on the golf course or Yangtze river cruising in china. They usually CPA's, business owners etc, who are frugal with their money, they save, invest and trade. I am in this group....
I am trading silver exclusively and I do not need to look at my monitor too much. I was long got short and now I am getting back into silver under 30/ounce.
The distinctive marks of these people,
1) not too active (commission + over trading kills
2) not many are stock pickers in fact most are not - they trade on vanguard 1+ or fidelity (second choice)
3) not very leveraged usually zero to very small (leverage also kills)
4) they listen and subscribe to Bob Brinker's money letter and radio program on Sunday. Wager to guess Brinker's audience on the radio newsletter? There are quite a few....
Quote from kamm:
These markets are pure algos. I stopped trading the mini s@p last year because of the algos. Now they are in the European stock indices. What markets are left to trade?
Quote from Handle123:
Trading has always come down to adapting to market patterns, and if one says other, they best trade mutual funds.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Are there any human traders left?
Quote from emg:
50 years from now, the introduction of precogs HFT vs AI HFT
Re: Re: Re: Re: Are there any human traders left?
Quote from emg:
50 years from now, the introduction of precogs HFT vs AI HFT
Algos made it easier to trade, not harder.
__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.
Are there any Buggy Whip makers left?
No matter the microstructure, Algos effect is felt many levels upside.
Don't you believe it has no effect!
A butterfly flapping wings in China affects the weather in Belize.
Quote from logic_man:
Updated Gordon Gekko:
"You want a friendly algo? Get a robot dog."
Quote from Serpentine:
The sad but hard truth for most, forget the algos, they are the least of your problems.
__________________
Work is for people who don't know how to trade!
Quote from KastyG:
No matter the microstructure, Algos effect is felt many levels upside.
Don't you believe it has no effect!
A butterfly flapping wings in China affects the weather in Belize.
Quote from logic_man:
If you take that to the extreme, you should only papertrade. After all, your buying or selling impacts the market, too! Those few ES contracts you buy might set off a sell algo that takes the ES down 50 handles!
Papertrade until you are rich, then go cash in your sim account. When the bank asks why you didn't actually make the trades, tell them it was the algos' fault.
Do people actually believe this stuff?
__________________
Work is for people who don't know how to trade!
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