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Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-10-12 03:59 PM:

We are in a slow motion Crash!

I fully realize that "crash" is a very strong word full of all kinds of very definite connotations, but I really can't think of any other way to articulate what is happening in the mighty flagship US equity index other than calling it a "slow-motion crash."

Bear markets are normal and healthy and fully expected after typical bull markets. Following a supercycle bubble however, a fearsome Great Bear beast much more vicious than a garden-variety bear market rears its razor-sharp claws. From a strategic perspective of a couple decades or so, the enormous S&P 500 bubble of the late 1990s and its current slow-motion crash through which investors are suffering become very apparent.

Whenever the wizards at the Fed run the proverbial printing presses to create more fiat dollars out of thin air, those inflationary dollars have to seek out a new home and a great deal of them begin bidding competitively on the already overvalued US equity markets. It is no coincidence that the S&P 500 bubble really ignited after the Fed began aggressively goosing US money supplies.

Of course, as the bulls have been relentlessly bashing into investors' heads for the past nine quarters or so, maybe US corporations will finally figure out how to earn healthy profits again and earnings will rise enough to lead to a slightly undervalued S&P 500 P/E above the psychologically-crucial 500 level. Who knows?

Any way you slice it though, the fundamental and technical case for the S&P 500 is certainly for another serious downleg approaching, probably not carrying us to the ultimate bottom, but definitely obliterating another significant percentage of already bleeding investors' scarce capital. Once the mighty index trades below its neckline of around 950 or so for a few weeks, the selling pressure will probably intensify immensely as fear increases and investors and traders decide discretion is the better part of valor for now.

Only a relatively small number of contrarian investors truly seek to understand the markets while the rest of the investors are trapped inside, by their own choice, and have no hope of escape, blinded by their own delusions.

While us private investors can't save the world, we can zealously try to transcend the real-world of popular opinion on the markets. Rather than living in the confusing world of Obama's lies and perpetual promises of "the bottom is in" or the profit recovery will roar forth "next quarter," investors can seek to understand the markets as they really are.

Posted by Free Thinker on 04-10-12 04:05 PM:

wtf. after a 30% move up since october we cant have a few down days without it being a crash?

__________________
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPs_j1EEplI&feature=feedwll&list=WL

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-10-12 08:58 PM:

The markets could not care less about you or me, they just exist. Only by understanding the markets in their actual strategic historical context, with mighty cyclical overvaluations giving way to gaping cyclical undervaluations over decades, can investors successfully beat the market year after year. The few investors outside the Matrix are the contrarians, who fervently strive to understand greed, fear, valuation, and history and do not buy into all the hype and obnoxious lies that mainstream investors eagerly lap up like famished kittens.

Posted by Free Thinker on 04-10-12 09:37 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

The markets could not care less about you or me, they just exist.

right, and they dont care about your emotional rants about conspiricy.

__________________
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPs_j1EEplI&feature=feedwll&list=WL

Posted by dumb_mother on 04-10-12 10:06 PM:

i've got a bet with a friend that s&p will be 900 by the election

Posted by newwurldmn on 04-10-12 10:39 PM:

Quote from dumb_mother:

i've got a bet with a friend that s&p will be 900 by the election

I hope you are getting 10 to 1 odds.

Posted by logic_man on 04-10-12 10:48 PM:

Whenever someone makes a call for a huge downside reversal, I have to ask what they were saying at the beginning of the most recent large-scale rally. So, what were you saying in late November?

Since, due to the market's historical upward bias, calling an upside reversal is actually easier than calling a downside reversal (i.e. you are more likely to get the call right just due to luck), unless you can say that you were saying to buy big in November, there's no point in thinking you have the necessary skills to accurately call a downside reversal. Even then, it is a crapshoot.

Posted by Landis82 on 04-10-12 10:50 PM:

Quote from Free Thinker:

right, and they dont care about your emotional rants about conspiracy.

Agreed.

Posted by tenthousandmen on 04-10-12 11:04 PM:

Re: We are in a slow motion Crash!

...and this is coming from the guy (girl?) who made their account solely for the purposse of making ONE post talking about their $160k trading tax loss write off.

blowing up, go read this then schedule an appointment with dr. wesley snipes http://psychologyinfo.com/problems/...html#borderline

Quote from blowingup2012:

I fully realize that "crash" is a very strong word full of all kinds of very definite connotations, but I really can't think of any other way to articulate what is happening in the mighty flagship US equity index other than calling it a "slow-motion crash."

Bear markets are normal and healthy and fully expected after typical bull markets. Following a supercycle bubble however, a fearsome Great Bear beast much more vicious than a garden-variety bear market rears its razor-sharp claws. From a strategic perspective of a couple decades or so, the enormous S&P 500 bubble of the late 1990s and its current slow-motion crash through which investors are suffering become very apparent.

Whenever the wizards at the Fed run the proverbial printing presses to create more fiat dollars out of thin air, those inflationary dollars have to seek out a new home and a great deal of them begin bidding competitively on the already overvalued US equity markets. It is no coincidence that the S&P 500 bubble really ignited after the Fed began aggressively goosing US money supplies.

Of course, as the bulls have been relentlessly bashing into investors' heads for the past nine quarters or so, maybe US corporations will finally figure out how to earn healthy profits again and earnings will rise enough to lead to a slightly undervalued S&P 500 P/E above the psychologically-crucial 500 level. Who knows?

Any way you slice it though, the fundamental and technical case for the S&P 500 is certainly for another serious downleg approaching, probably not carrying us to the ultimate bottom, but definitely obliterating another significant percentage of already bleeding investors' scarce capital. Once the mighty index trades below its neckline of around 950 or so for a few weeks, the selling pressure will probably intensify immensely as fear increases and investors and traders decide discretion is the better part of valor for now.

Only a relatively small number of contrarian investors truly seek to understand the markets while the rest of the investors are trapped inside, by their own choice, and have no hope of escape, blinded by their own delusions.

While us private investors can't save the world, we can zealously try to transcend the real-world of popular opinion on the markets. Rather than living in the confusing world of Obama's lies and perpetual promises of "the bottom is in" or the profit recovery will roar forth "next quarter," investors can seek to understand the markets as they really are.

Posted by rockefehler on 04-10-12 11:08 PM:

According to me, the markets will go sideways till the beginning of 2014. Dow between 10,500 and 13,000.

Then a mighty rally might start (Dow > 20,000), followed by a steep descent.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-10-12 11:12 PM:

In a year from now, we will all be having a good laugh over what has happened and for some it will be a very sobering moment. I am 100% confident that we will be lower 1 year from now with many companies insolvent and even big well known names like the Bank of America BANKRUPT.

Anyway you slice it or dice it, by the end of the year your long term portfolio will be showing some pain.

Posted by PlinytheTrader on 04-10-12 11:43 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Anyway you slice it or dice it, by the end of the year your long term portfolio will be showing some pain. [/B]

Anyway you slice it the market has to go down? That is some sound reasoning, that is unless the market ends the year up. There are countless variables that can affect the market in either direction. To make claims that no matter what happens to those variables the market must go down just shows how misguided you are. I love the world we live in now, where anytime the indices have 2 bad days in a row its considered a crash or the beginning of the end. Keep betting that blue chip stocks are destined to go bankrupt and you will be doing exactly at your name says, blowing up.

Posted by dumb_mother on 04-10-12 11:54 PM:

Quote from newwurldmn:

I hope you are getting 10 to 1 odds.

i made the bet at the lows of last year so i didn't get the best of odds at all unfortunately.

pour one out for iran i've still got a hope.

Posted by short4bread on 04-11-12 12:01 AM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

In a year from now, we will all be having a good laugh over what has happened and for some it will be a very sobering moment. I am 100% confident that we will be lower 1 year from now with many companies insolvent and even big well known names like the Bank of America BANKRUPT.

Anyway you slice it or dice it, by the end of the year your long term portfolio will be showing some pain.

One year from now we probably will be in a bear market, but probably won't be lower than where we are now. A year and a half from now, well that may be a different story. As for Bank of America, you obviously don't understand socialism.

Posted by Free Thinker on 04-11-12 12:29 AM:

Quote from PlinytheTrader:

Anyway you slice it the market has to go down?

that statement has cost people a lot of money.

__________________
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPs_j1EEplI&feature=feedwll&list=WL

Posted by futurecurrents on 04-11-12 12:47 AM:

Re: We are in a slow motion Crash!

Quote from blowingup2012:

While us private investors can't save the world, we can zealously try to transcend the real-world of popular opinion on the markets. Rather than living in the confusing world of Obama's lies and perpetual promises of "the bottom is in" or the profit recovery will roar forth "next quarter," investors can seek to understand the markets as they really are.

Yes we must "transcend popular opinion and stop living in a confusing world of Obama's lies and promises."

Now that is the most logical, technically sound and well thought out reasoning behind why we should all go massively short. No ideology infringing on cold logic there. No sir.

What's funny here is how authentic, literate and authoritative sounding your post is. Just like all the other vacuous prognostications by the so-called pros that are worth the paper they're not even printed on.

__________________

The future chaos is determined by the current chaos, in a chaotic manner.

Posted by PlinytheTrader on 04-11-12 12:57 AM:

Quote from Free Thinker:

that statement has cost people a lot of money.

Very true yet it never seems to stop these "pros" from continuing to try and call tops, doubling down on losers, and betting against the trend.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-11-12 02:16 AM:

As I have discussed in many past posts, I believe the primary factors are the incredibly dangerous and reckless actions of the goofy private central bankers who control the US fiat dollar, the bureaucrats at the Federal Reserve.

Whenever the wizards at the Fed run the proverbial printing presses to create more fiat dollars out of thin air, those inflationary dollars have to seek out a new home and a great deal of them begin bidding competitively on the already overvalued US equity markets. It is no coincidence that the S&P 500 bubble really ignited after the Fed began aggressively goosing US money supplies in 2009.

Posted by tenthousandmen on 04-11-12 02:16 AM:

Quote from dumb_mother:

i made the bet at the lows of last year so i didn't get the best of odds at all unfortunately.

pour one out for iran i've still got a hope.

isnt this what exchanges are for

?

blowingup: im going to follow you around the board and let everyone know in advance that you have severe personality disorder and have not yet attempted treatment for your trading addiction and social problems

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-11-12 02:54 AM:

Haha, an old trick, but how will that work if I find amusement from your posts rather then offense?

Quote from tenthousandmen:

isnt this what exchanges are for?

blowingup: im going to follow you around the board and let everyone know in advance that you have severe personality disorder and have not yet attempted treatment for your trading addiction and social problems

Posted by luckyluciano on 04-11-12 12:17 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

As I have discussed in many past posts, I believe the primary factors are the incredibly dangerous and reckless actions of the goofy private central bankers who control the US fiat dollar, the bureaucrats at the Federal Reserve.

Whenever the wizards at the Fed run the proverbial printing presses to create more fiat dollars out of thin air, those inflationary dollars have to seek out a new home and a great deal of them begin bidding competitively on the already overvalued US equity markets. It is no coincidence that the S&P 500 bubble really ignited after the Fed began aggressively goosing US money supplies in 2009.

Explain this to me. How is is that Most blue chips trading between 10-20 P/E ratios and you are calling this a bubble?

I understand you are not happy with the world government monetary system but what does this have to do with corporations being profitable?

Are you expecting P/E ratios of 5-10?

Posted by rockefehler on 04-11-12 01:17 PM:

It's just a Pavlov response to the huge 2008 drop. The primitive human expects and wants a repetition of that, no matter what the facts (P/E's etc) are.

Now, I agree with him that central banks play a VERY dangerous game ... only the real blowup will be far away in the future.

Posted by logic_man on 04-11-12 01:21 PM:

The other problem with the idea of a "slow motion crash" is that empirical evidence shows that declines are faster than rises in financial markets. That's why they say markets "take the escalator up and the elevator down".

A "slow motion crash" is a contradiction in terms.

Posted by tenthousandmen on 04-11-12 03:20 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Haha, an old trick, but how will that work if I find amusement from your posts rather then offense?

http://twitter.com/#!/nodoji

Posted by Lucrum on 04-11-12 03:53 PM:

Re: We are in a slow motion Crash!

Quote from blowingup2012:

I fully realize that "crash" is a very strong word full of all kinds of very definite connotations, but I really can't think of any other way to articulate what is happening in the mighty flagship US equity index other than calling it a "slow-motion crash."

Have you ever witnessed a real equity market crash, in real time in front of a monitor with real time quotes?

Posted by bwolinsky on 04-11-12 08:40 PM:

Quote from logic_man:

The other problem with the idea of a "slow motion crash" is that empirical evidence shows that declines are faster than rises in financial markets. That's why they say markets "take the escalator up and the elevator down".

A "slow motion crash" is a contradiction in terms.

I've already written elsewhere that slow to rise, faster to fall is due to geometric weighting.

__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?

Bud Fox

Wall Street

Posted by logic_man on 04-11-12 09:28 PM:

Quote from bwolinsky:

I've already written elsewhere that slow to rise, faster to fall is due to geometric weighting.

I'm not familiar enough with your entire oeuvre to cite your pronouncements correctly, so you'll excuse me if I don't try.

Posted by PiggyBank on 04-11-12 10:07 PM:

dude, there are no "slow motion" crashes.

Posted by ElCubano on 04-11-12 10:56 PM:

Re: Re: We are in a slow motion Crash!

Quote from Lucrum:

Have you ever witnessed a real equity market crash, in real time in front of a monitor with real time quotes?

2000, 08 and Flash crash. I was short BSC at 66 or so and closed position as it vaporized....i believe it was a fri or mon....made little in comparison to what I could have made had I gone to the bathroom to take a dump

__________________
Freedom, I have much love for ya!!

Posted by denner on 04-11-12 11:38 PM:

Crude Oil in 2008 was a slow motion crash.

I think it was twice as lethal because it was such an orderly decline that a bunch of people were convinced the "bottom" was just about every single day.

I still remember EMR Global jumping all over himself to declare how long he was for the entire decline.

__________________
wealth effect: stock market higher, health care costs higher, unemployment higher, food/energy prices higher, taxes higher, poverty higher, bonuses higher, foreclosures higher, homelessness higher, crime rate higher, bankruptcies higher, unsold cars higher... it's economics 101

Posted by Lucrum on 04-11-12 11:45 PM:

Re: Re: Re: We are in a slow motion Crash!

Quote from ElCubano:

2000, 08 and Flash crash. I was short BSC at 66 or so and closed position as it vaporized....i believe it was a fri or mon....made little in comparison to what I could have made had I gone to the bathroom to take a dump

Nice, my first was 1989. I was long 10 OEX index puts. Although technically that one may be officially remembered as a mini crash.

Posted by PiggyBank on 04-12-12 12:14 AM:

Re: Re: Re: We are in a slow motion Crash!

Quote from ElCubano:

2000, 08 and Flash crash. I was short BSC at 66 or so and closed position as it vaporized....i believe it was a fri or mon....made little in comparison to what I could have made had I gone to the bathroom to take a dump

that was one wild fckn move. I couldn't bring myself to jump in, but i remember watching it.. it was like electronic death throes.

the dude next to me bought it for his ira.. poor bastard. I think he bought around 30 something with a couple thousand shares. The look on his face that Mon was just stone, i looked at him like sorry bro.. and he just shrugged. his words were something to the effect of "who knew?"

The best part was that he couldn't hold an intraday position if his life was on the line but he could eat a monster loss with a straight face. He was a good guy though.

Posted by tenthousandmen on 04-12-12 07:55 PM:

Re: Re: We are in a slow motion Crash!

Quote from Lucrum:

Have you ever witnessed a real equity market crash, in real time in front of a monitor with real time quotes?

Last august, we put in orders just before close that friday (post market shorts) when the news about the downgrade came out. I was so out of control (happy) I called my broker Mon night to make sure the trades would count.

Sometimes soros dreams do come true.

Posted by failed_trad3r on 04-12-12 08:21 PM:

Yes, we are headed into a second Great Depression or a third Long Depression. History repeats.

That said, I bought the dip in the past few weeks and three times made 20-40 ES points each time. Get it? We are headed into a Depression and I only took three long trades the past few weeks and still made money.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-13-12 06:36 PM:

Looks like the ole fave like AAPL are now selling off. Just like in 2007 the selloff in Google prompted us that a recession was coming so will the selloff in AAPL. My advice, by gold and coal miners.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-16-12 03:35 PM:

15 ES points lost in 15 minutes

Posted by NY_HOOD on 04-16-12 03:51 PM:

i agree here.mi think we are entering a sustained downtrend. we will probably drop another 10% or so.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-18-12 04:24 PM:

Prepare for the next leg down!

Posted by logic_man on 04-18-12 04:45 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Prepare for the next leg down!

The last time you posted about a decline in this thread, two days ago, was near 1360 on the ES. Since then, the low has been 1359 and the high 1388.

Did you ever think that you just aren't good at this, except possibly as a contrary indicator?

Posted by newwurldmn on 04-18-12 06:48 PM:

Maybe he's GrandSuperCycle.

Posted by bc1 on 04-19-12 12:16 AM:

Quote from newwurldmn:

Maybe he's GrandSuperCycle.

Well, they have both blown up their accounts. They both appear to have the same mental problems. They both give bad advice. They both don't understand the markets. Nobody in the sane world would want to follow their advice. Sockpuppets perhaps?

Posted by brokerboy on 04-19-12 12:58 AM:

its not a crash but its a new economy. you have more people on earth everyday and less people needed in the work force. you have new powerful counties using limited resources. this is a fast moving evolution and the middle class of first world countries will be forced to share the little wealth they have.

Posted by babutime on 04-19-12 01:22 AM:

Uh I like it like that
She working that back
I don't know how to act
Slow motion for me, slow motion for me, slow motion for me
Move it slow motion for me

Slow indeed...

__________________
"People assign much higher probability to the truth of their opinions than is warranted. It's one of the reasons people trade so much in the market, generally with bad results."
-Daniel Kahneman

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-19-12 05:19 PM:

Notable stocks like AAPL, IBM and PCLN have turned the corner. Why not buy some right now to demonstrate your confidence in the market and to show us that you "know" it more then I?

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-19-12 05:36 PM:

The normal historical unwinding process after a magnificent equity bubble is for a devastating equity bust of comparable magnitude to follow. The bust is necessary to bleed off the gross bubble excesses and lay the solid foundations for the next boom. I know it�s no fun, but history is absolutely unambiguous in teaching investors the hard lesson that general market valuations, as measured by P/E ratios, plunge to half fair value (7x) at the pits of despair when a bust bear-market bottoms. If the S&P 500 was to become universally loathed as panic and capitulation reigned supreme, the index could conceivably fall to a difficult to believe level. In this case that level would be somewhere south of 700 and quite conceivably much lower.

Posted by logic_man on 04-19-12 05:49 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Notable stocks like AAPL, IBM and PCLN have turned the corner. Why not buy some right now to demonstrate your confidence in the market and to show us that you "know" it more then I?

While I would agree that AAPL looks a little damaged, it isn't "crashing" and if that's what you mean by it "turning the corner", it's very premature to conclude that.

I know this, which is that you buy low and sell high when you go long and vice versa if you're going short.

So, of course you buy when the market is down. Your primary responsibility as a trader is to identify what constitutes the end of the decline and then buying or the end of the rise and then selling.

The problem with traders who get all excited about declines in bull markets or rallies in bear markets is that they lack one of the key psychological attributes of a successful trader, which is 'patience'.

Posted by PlinytheTrader on 04-19-12 05:52 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

The normal historical unwinding process after a magnificent equity bubble is for a devastating equity bust of comparable magnitude to follow. The bust is necessary to bleed off the gross bubble excesses and lay the solid foundations for the next boom.

Please explain what equity bubble you are referring to that is in the process of being unwound? The market is just now recovering from the last major decline from a few years ago. Bubbles are defined by blind euphoria and an overall feeling of the market being a can't lose proposition (dot.com craze and real estate bubble if you want some examples). I hardly view the current market being in that situation, everyone is scared of the next big drop and many investors remain on the sidelines due to the fear of the last decline happening again. If there had been a true equity bubble even people like you and GrandSuperCycle would have been on board with max leverage on long positions.

Posted by babutime on 04-19-12 05:55 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Notable stocks like AAPL, IBM and PCLN have turned the corner. Why not buy some right now to demonstrate your confidence in the market and to show us that you "know" it more then I?

By your statement you're implying that you also know more than the rest of the folks here.

So it's logical assume that you could make money by taking the opposite view.

That's what you should be doing.

So if you're so kind enough to warn us, go ahead, take the opposite view and put your money where your mouth is. Can you do that?

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-19-12 05:58 PM:

Thats easy to explain. By historical standards we are still way over-valued.

http://advisorperspectives.com/dsho...on-Overview.php

Yet we have another poster here accusing me of being yet another alias. First it was NODOJI and then EMG. I have lost track of all the users you think I am. You are all living in one big delusion.

Posted by PlinytheTrader on 04-19-12 06:17 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Thats easy to explain. By historical standards we are still way over-valued.

http://advisorperspectives.com/dsho...on-Overview.php

Yet we have another poster here accusing me of being yet another alias. First it was NODOJI and then EMG. I have lost track of all the users you think I am. You are all living in one big delusion.

You didn't explain anything at all except say that the market is over valued and then link to some website who either shares your view or gave you the info which convinced you of that view. You stated earlier that we are coming down from a "magnificent equity bubble." And when questions your proof is that well some website thinks the market is still overvalued. Well i could link to many other analyst who still think the market is undervalued but what is the point? Here is a clue: overvalued does not equal massive bubble. Please tell me that you also are not one of those people who after the Dow loses 200 points in a day starts referring to it as a black swan event as well?

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-19-12 06:20 PM:

Guess what guys? While you are explaining your opinionated view to me, the ES is now selling off headed for that dreaded neckline.

You can smack yourselves around all day trying to convince yourselves or you can sit there and read the truth. Please stop being delusional.

Posted by rockefehler on 04-19-12 06:26 PM:

Quote from PlinytheTrader:

Please explain what equity bubble you are referring to that is in the process of being unwound? The market is just now recovering from the last major decline from a few years ago. Bubbles are defined by blind euphoria and an overall feeling of the market being a can't lose proposition (dot.com craze and real estate bubble if you want some examples). I hardly view the current market being in that situation, everyone is scared of the next big drop and many investors remain on the sidelines due to the fear of the last decline happening again. If there had been a true equity bubble even people like you and GrandSuperCycle would have been on board with max leverage on long positions.

Great post; if there was a bubble blup2012 would be on here screaming Long!! you can't lose

Posted by logic_man on 04-19-12 06:27 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Thats easy to explain. By historical standards we are still way over-valued.

http://advisorperspectives.com/dsho...on-Overview.php

Yet we have another poster here accusing me of being yet another alias. First it was NODOJI and then EMG. I have lost track of all the users you think I am. You are all living in one big delusion.

Trying to apply a specific value to the market from which it must regress to the mean is a sure way to lose money.

While I agree with the general thesis behind the saying "History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes", trying to tie that general thesis to specific actions is almost always going to end in tears. The history of the markets is littered with countless examples of this.

Much better to build a quantitative and objective model of the market and wait for the data to tell you when a real turn is likely to be in effect. Even then, your conclusion will still be subject to the fact that we can only deal in probabilities when it comes to markets.

The evidence that we have so far, i.e. the data on prices since the market's most recent price high, is too slender a reed to make it bear the conclusions you want to draw. These kinds of turns take time to play out.

I'm actually trying to help you become a better trader by telling you this, so, don't shoot the messenger.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-19-12 06:49 PM:

Quote from logic_man:

I'm actually trying to help you become a better trader by telling you this, so, don't shoot the messenger.

Haha! This is so typical of ET. So many people trying to "help" us all out. Look, why dont you post your brokerage statements for the last year so we can evaluate your performance and then we can make an informed decision whether or not we want you "helping" us out.

Time after time people like yourself insist you are trying to be teachers or helpers while you sit there in some below average home driving around in a beatup Honda. Come on now, thats the lifestyle we are all trying to escape and we dont need your help if thats the lifestyle you lead.

Posted by logic_man on 04-19-12 07:06 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Haha! This is so typical of ET. So many people trying to "help" us all out. Look, why dont you post your brokerage statements for the last year so we can evaluate your performance and then we can make an informed decision whether or not we want you "helping" us out.

Time after time people like yourself insist you are trying to be teachers or helpers while you sit there in some below average home driving around in a beatup Honda. Come on now, thats the lifestyle we are all trying to escape and we dont need your help if thats the lifestyle you lead.

And yet you've failed to notice the correlation between the "typical ET" mentality of calling tops and your own. Clearly, self-awareness is not your forte.

If you think the path to riches is paved by the kind of approach to trading that motivates threads like "We are in a slow motion Crash", have at it. Just realize that if what you say about the "typical ET" poster is true, they should all be rich because that is exactly the kind of thread that gets posted here every single time the market turns down a percent or two.

If you are really curious about whether I can help you or not, look at my posting history, the kinds of threads I start (none of them have jack to do with 'market calls', I'll tell you that), what I've said about my recent performance and my personal background, and then determine if I know what I am talking about. I've already helped you more than I probably should have just by telling you to learn to be patient and I certainly won't be making that mistake again.

Posted by logic_man on 04-19-12 07:12 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Guess what guys? While you are explaining your opinionated view to me, the ES is now selling off headed for that dreaded neckline.

You really think that everyone in the world doesn't see that "dreaded neckline"? You think the people with the money to move the markets "dread" a freaking "neckline"? They are running algorithms where each price print in that "dreaded neckline" is just another piece of data in a time series, not anything they weigh in actual decision-making.

If that comment is indicative of your level of market analysis, you have absolutely no clue and any congruence between your market call and reality is purely coincidental.

Posted by PlinytheTrader on 04-19-12 07:15 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Haha! This is so typical of ET. So many people trying to "help" us all out. Look, why dont you post your brokerage statements for the last year so we can evaluate your performance and then we can make an informed decision whether or not we want you "helping" us out.

You are so funny because you call him out as being "typical ET" when in fact you are the most stereotypical ET poster of all. Everything is doom and gloom and you use 4 point moves in the ES as evidence of the big impending collapse that you predict every day on multiple threads. And if anyone questions you or provides sound advice against your opinion you go straight to the "well show us your brokerage statements" card trying to deflect the conversation and hoping to discredit the messenger. You might as well just go with the always classic comeback line of "oh yeah, well what kind of car do you drive?", oh wait you did that when you referred to his hypothetical beat up Honda. Well let me just save you the time and I will finish the rest of the conversation for you in true ET fasion...
"those statements won't work, they need to be audited"...
"you could easily photo shop those"...
"you are using a demo account"...
"day trading is dead".....

followed by not posting when the market has up days. I know, I know, we get it...just buy gold.

Posted by logic_man on 04-19-12 07:39 PM:

Quote from PlinytheTrader:

You are so funny because you call him out as being "typical ET" when in fact you are the most stereotypical ET poster of all.

If I had to guess, he probably doesn't think he's stereotypical because there tends to be a short life for the posters like him, so they are gone by the time the next top caller starts posting. After he's gone, there will be another.

If I had a dollar for each top that was not an actual top, I could retire.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-19-12 08:44 PM:

Quote from logic_man:

If you are really curious about whether I can help you or not, look at my posting history, the kinds of threads I start...

Haha! This is more ET "logic" for us to consider. We should be listening to this person because he authors a lot of posts on ET. Anyone who falls for that nonsense deserves to have their money taken from them.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-19-12 08:48 PM:

Quote from PlinytheTrader:

You might as well just go with the always classic comeback line of "oh yeah, well what kind of car do you drive?"

I believe seeing some kind of verifiable history is very reasonable. Sure I will listen when I see some kind of proof that the person is who they claim to be. If "logic_man" is really someone who should be teaching trading then I want to see their statements and what kind of life they really lead.

Posted by logic_man on 04-19-12 08:54 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Haha! This is more ET "logic" for us to consider. We should be listening to this person because he authors a lot of posts on ET. Anyone who falls for that nonsense deserves to have their money taken from them.

I didn't say that. I said that you could see if the posts were quality posts and if they addressed topics beyond the scope of the simplest kind of post and the kind which appears to be your specialty, the 'market call' post, not how many of them there were.

Also, if you looked at the threads I've started, you'd see that I had already asked not about using my brokerage statements to prove something to some anonymous dude on ET, but as a sort of "resume" to help get a trading job without that specific background on my actual resume. If I want to do something like that, it shouldn't be too difficult to infer that the statements show profits. It's not as if I'm going to take brokerage statements that show losses to a firm and ask them to hire me on that basis. That said, I have zero interest in showing them to you, unless you are secretly a fund manager looking for someone with a scalable short-term ES strategy.

And how am I "taking" anyone's money? I'm not a vendor, nor have I ever offered to teach anyone to trade for money. All I am saying is, to reiterate my initial post in this thread, there is no such thing as a "slow-motion crash" because downward moves are always faster than upward moves, all things being equal and, that if YOU actually were any good at calling market direction, you should have been pounding the table to buy in late November. Since moves up are easier to predict than moves down, due to the bias of the indices toward the upside, if you can't predict moves up, your chances of predicting moves down is very low, practically nil.

Now, since the last two times you've shown up here talking about your crash call, the market has responded with 20-30 point gains, it's obvious that rather than talking about your crash call, you should have been saying that the market would be moving up from the levels it was at when you posted. That would have actually been useful and display some capability in forecasting an upward movement, which, in turn would give one a little bit more confidence in your crash call. Since none of that is true, it's obvious that you don't have the faintest idea what the market is going to be doing in the short-term. Then, when you do things like post about "dreaded necklines" as if anyone with more than a $2000 E-trade account cares about "necklines", it makes you look even more amateurish. Which is fine, we all start somewhere, but then you cop an attitude toward other posters who seem more informed than you, it just makes you look not only like an amateur, but like someone with a major character flaw known as "hubris".

Anyway, like I said, I was only trying to warn you about being fixated on making these big market calls because it's a terrible way to trade. I guess if your goal is to attention-whore, it's great, though. I'm sure that nothing else you could possibly have written would have generated this many responses.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-19-12 10:13 PM:

Quote from logic_man:

And how am I "taking" anyone's money? I'm not a vendor, nor have I ever offered to teach anyone to trade for money.

This is another one of those ET things where you try to make it look like you are knowledgable and are willing to "teach" so people will message you. Why not just pay Baron the sponsorship fees?

Posted by rockefehler on 04-19-12 10:21 PM:

Quote from logic_man:

That said, I have zero interest in showing them to you, unless you are secretly a fund manager looking for someone with a scalable short-term ES strategy.

Yeah right, he's an undercover fund manager

That said, I think he's right that the top is in for at least the coming 2 years. We're rangebound for that time.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-19-12 10:23 PM:

Here is what you do to get a job at a fund. Start a journal of your trading activities. If its a successful journal then people will follow and listen. Eventually you will get a bunch of messages. I know a guy who started a blog and eventually got a few offers. So it all comes down to keeping a successful trading journal with before the fact calls and exact entry/exit points.

Posted by logic_man on 04-19-12 10:34 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

This is another one of those ET things where you try to make it look like you are knowledgable and are willing to "teach" so people will message you. Why not just pay Baron the sponsorship fees?

Get a grip. No one here is going to pay me what I think this approach is worth long-term, so I'm not interested in having the distraction.

Posted by logic_man on 04-19-12 10:44 PM:

Quote from rockefehler:

Yeah right, he's an undercover fund manager

That said, I think he's right that the top is in for at least the coming 2 years. We're rangebound for that time.

Livermore said that "the first and last eighths are the most expensive". if we really are going into a 2-year ranging market (presumably, this initial leg down will go to the bottom, or near to the ultimate bottom of the range), what this thread is trying to do is catch the "first eighth".

Again, to reiterate my point, that is bad trading strategy. Let the thing confirm first. By a conservative reckoning, we need to break 1330 first.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-19-12 11:08 PM:

Didnt Jesse Livermore also talk about getting out of the stock which didnt make it above the last high? Forget the big caps, look at the small caps...the IWM...that is the etf of truth. It didnt make it over its last high and looks to be weakening. Tops are certainly not made overnight, but over a course or weeks or months. Its already been several weeks and we are going into May...so do we wait until after May when the market has sold off?

Posted by rockefehler on 04-20-12 12:35 AM:

Quote from logic_man:

Livermore said that "the first and last eighths are the most expensive". if we really are going into a 2-year ranging market (presumably, this initial leg down will go to the bottom, or near to the ultimate bottom of the range), what this thread is trying to do is catch the "first eighth".

Again, to reiterate my point, that is bad trading strategy. Let the thing confirm first. By a conservative reckoning, we need to break 1330 first.

Patience is everything, tops take their time to form ... this may go down to 12300-12200, and test the top again. Then you have a nice top formation with some body.

The bottom of the range I currently project at 10500. So a fairly narrow range.

Posted by logic_man on 04-20-12 01:10 AM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Didnt Jesse Livermore also talk about getting out of the stock which didnt make it above the last high? Forget the big caps, look at the small caps...the IWM...that is the etf of truth. It didnt make it over its last high and looks to be weakening. Tops are certainly not made overnight, but over a course or weeks or months. Its already been several weeks and we are going into May...so do we wait until after May when the market has sold off?

The selloff in November was worse than what we've seen so far and it eventually resolved to the upside. As I said, I think it is premature to say anything about where this is going to resolve.

Posted by Wide Tailz on 04-20-12 01:49 AM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Didnt Jesse Livermore also talk about getting out of the stock which didnt make it above the last high?

He also blew up (pun intended)..... several times.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-20-12 02:52 AM:

Quote from logic_man:

The selloff in November was worse than what we've seen so far and it eventually resolved to the upside. As I said, I think it is premature to say anything about where this is going to resolve.

So you are telling me that this chart might resolve upward?

Posted by luckyluciano on 04-20-12 01:07 PM:

Fixating on charts and TA is fixating on the past to predict the future. Fundamentally, *corporate profits continue to increase,
*real estate is bottomed out and turning the corner,
*governments of the world are living in a glass house of transparency where they cannot continue to borrow to get elected much longer
*the noisy news of goverement debts will soon get drowned out with the reality that corporations have adapted and are growing profits which is what the stock markets of the world are really truly all about.

Governments need to get their acts together like the corporations have!

How can you have a real CRASH when corporations are doing so well?

Posted by logic_man on 04-20-12 01:32 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

So you are telling me that this chart might resolve upward?

Market movements confirm in reverse timeframe order, from the smallest time to the largest, so if we haven't confirmed a likely reversal on the November to now timeframe, we sure haven't confirmed one on a multi-year timeframe.

So, yes, that chart absolutely might resolve upward.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-20-12 01:44 PM:

Quote from logic_man:

Market movements confirm in reverse timeframe order, from the smallest time to the largest, so...

Now you are going Jack Hershey on us.

Posted by logic_man on 04-20-12 01:46 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Now you are going Jack Hershey on us.

Please, man, I have nothing to do with that guy and any overlap in something I say and something he says is pure coincidence. If he said something similar to what I just said, in my opinion it's just "broken clock syndrome" and he got lucky. The guy's posts sicken me.

Posted by luckyluciano on 04-20-12 03:10 PM:

Quote from logic_man:

Market movements confirm in reverse timeframe order, from the smallest time to the largest, so if we haven't confirmed a likely reversal on the November to now timeframe, we sure haven't confirmed one on a multi-year timeframe.

So, yes, that chart absolutely might resolve upward.

I like your logic, Man! Logic-man. Lol!

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-20-12 03:16 PM:

Quote from logic_man:

Please, man, I have nothing to do with that guy and any overlap in something I say and something he says is pure coincidence. If he said something similar to what I just said, in my opinion it's just "broken clock syndrome" and he got lucky. The guy's posts sicken me.

...but you do have something in common in that the both of you refuse to post actual returns and we just have to somehow "trust you".

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-20-12 04:24 PM:

Im long the TZA with a stop at 18.6

Posted by logic_man on 04-20-12 04:40 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

...but you do have something in common in that the both of you refuse to post actual returns and we just have to somehow "trust you".

Has Jack Hershey ever started a thread like this?

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=239926

Clearly, I am willing to show people my returns. Just not you.

Posted by hajimow on 04-20-12 04:40 PM:

I did not read the thread but my gut feeling says SPY will drop soon. Now it is $138.60 I expect it to go to $137 and lower. Not below $135.
I also expect a big drop in AAPL after the earnings. I don't trade AAPL. Drop to $550 not more.

By the way this will happen in a week.

Posted by PlinytheTrader on 04-20-12 05:27 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

...but you do have something in common in that the both of you refuse to post actual returns and we just have to somehow "trust you".

What is your obsession with seeing everyone's account returns? This is a thread about overall market direction in the future. People give their ideas and provide some sort of rationale for their claims. Sound judgement by the reader should determine if their argument makes sense, not detailed account returns. Profitable traders can still give bad advice just the same as a non profitable trader can still provide an intelligent conversation.

Example:

Quote from luckyluciano:

Fixating on charts and TA is fixating on the past to predict the future. Fundamentally, *corporate profits continue to increase,
*real estate is bottomed out and turning the corner,
*governments of the world are living in a glass house of transparency where they cannot continue to borrow to get elected much longer
*the noisy news of goverement debts will soon get drowned out with the reality that corporations have adapted and are growing profits which is what the stock markets of the world are really truly all about.

Governments need to get their acts together like the corporations have!

How can you have a real CRASH when corporations are doing so well?

This is very sound reasoning and Luciano sounds like he knows what he is talking about. I don't know anything about him, but if he is a poor trader would that then make his reasoning invalid? Corporate profits still fundamentally drive the market at its core, but if a poor trader says it then its not true anymore? Conversely if someone told you that the S&P would go to 200 by 2015 and then showed you that he was a profitable trader with years of account statements, would you believe him blindly and throw your money in shorting the market?

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-20-12 05:37 PM:

Quote from logic_man:

Has Jack Hershey ever started a thread like this?

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=239926

Clearly, I am willing to show people my returns. Just not you.

Let me answer your question in the thread you authored about showing account statements. You can always mail or email the statements to any number of funds, institutions and money managers out there along with a thoughtfully written cover letter and CV. However, I dont believe that will work, but it might be worth a try. Im sure someone has tried that before.

The way I have seen people employed through these forums is to post a detailed journal with real time entries and exits. Ive also seen people do it by authoring a blog. Your audience is more sophisticated then you think. So you have to post in real time and answer detailed questions which are put forward. Maybe you might even show a screen print of the actual trade. After a while someone will notice and then you can take it higher. There are a few losers out there who do not post their entries/exits in real time and dont bother to answer legitimate questions. Those losers are weeded out quickly. There are some educated guys on here who know the business and go through those journals. They will let you know when you have crossed into the loser category and not to waste your time.

Another option is to join a prop firm and if you are successful with them then eventually word will get out. Im sure someone like Don Brite has a lot of connections and if you are successful with him then you will eventually move forward. In any event, you need to prove and demonstrate something first before you move forward. Just paper statements I do not believe will be of any help. All of us experienced Joes roll our eyes when we see someone come out in a public forum with a system that makes 26% a month. We tend to think its more bullshit we have been fed before and need something more to validate.

So Im taking the time to give you the best advice possible. Responding to me is wasting your time and just gives more entertainment to the peanut gallery. There was one guy who told me once that all of his prop firm opportunities he found on here. He is a well known trader and posted detailed journals. He disappeared because he found a gig and no longer needed to post in the journal.

Posted by Lucrum on 04-20-12 09:24 PM:

Are we still "crashing" or is it over already?

Posted by Wide Tailz on 04-21-12 06:28 AM:

Where is grand when you need him.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-24-12 08:50 PM:

Can I get an apology from the haters since I am right?

Posted by KastyG on 04-24-12 09:02 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Can I get an apology from the haters since I am right?

We've had a good run,, AAPL is a bellweather ...

Posted by logic_man on 04-24-12 09:14 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Can I get an apology from the haters since I am right?

You are delusional. Here is the timestamp from the first post in this disaster of a thread:

04-10-12 10:59 AM

The low during the hour between 10AM ET and 11AM ET that day was 1369 and the low for that day was 1352.5.

In case you haven't noticed, we are, at this very minute, higher than both of those prints and are only ~3% off the high set nearly 1 month ago.

This thread has clearly degenerated into mere trolling because no one is this stupid. As such, I would argue it should be closed or taken out of "Trading" and put into wherever trolling threads go. That you came back to post here shows you're just looking for attention.

Posted by Lucrum on 04-24-12 09:17 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Can I get an apology from the haters since I am right?

Right about what?

Posted by bwolinsky on 04-24-12 10:17 PM:

Quote from Lucrum:

Right about what?

Yeah, about what?

There's no trading advice given, so no credit is due anywhere.

__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?

Bud Fox

Wall Street

Posted by logic_man on 04-24-12 10:22 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Can I get an apology from the haters since I am right?

In yet another example of your impeccable timing, you posted this at 3:50 ET and we have yet to have a print below the low of that minute since, but, instead have moved up 11 points in the ES.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-24-12 11:15 PM:

See, I was right!

Posted by PlinytheTrader on 04-24-12 11:23 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

See, I was right!

Crickets.........

Posted by logic_man on 04-24-12 11:47 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

See, I was right!

No, if the title of the thread was "We are about to make a bottom of a trading range that will last at least two weeks", you would have been right.

Since that wasn't the title, you were wrong.

I still say this whole thread has become an obvious troll and should be closed.

Posted by Lucrum on 04-25-12 12:00 AM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

See, I was right!

Right about what, did you blow up again?

Posted by rockefehler on 04-25-12 12:05 AM:

I'm beginning to beleive my analysis was wrong; European markets seem to have bottomed and have some way up. Thus higher highs on the American markets may be possible.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-25-12 02:41 AM:

Apple is up big in afterhours, but the ES is only up 4 points and the TF a few at most. The TF hasnt blown through last years highs and dragging. So what do you think will happen when the UK GDP comes out tommorrow or the US GDP on Friday? What do you think will happen in May?

This is a slow motion crash and I dont expect to see the same aliases here after May. Lucrum will be here on the other hand because he is just some old man in Arkansas that doesnt trade and lives off of Obama's Social Security.

Posted by satchel on 04-25-12 02:54 AM:

'This' is the typical run up into FOMC. Check out the past meetings and the charts.

__________________
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty.--Frank Herbert

Posted by luckyluciano on 04-25-12 12:13 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Apple is up big in afterhours, but the ES is only up 4 points and the TF a few at most. The TF hasnt blown through last years highs and dragging. So what do you think will happen when the UK GDP comes out tommorrow or the US GDP on Friday? What do you think will happen in May?

This is a slow motion crash and I dont expect to see the same aliases here after May. Lucrum will be here on the other hand because he is just some old man in Arkansas that doesnt trade and lives off of Obama's Social Security.

Well if itis a crash, it's more based on Emotion rather than fundamentals. Like I said before, earnings are great overall and companies are profitable and growing. One could argue that the market predicts the future but in the long run, earnings growth will move the markets higher. The stock market is supposed to be about company growth not greedy politicians bribing electorate with money they do not have so that may get re-elected. That's what this sell off is. Emotion. Right or wrong, there definitely is a correction underway. Don't think it's considered a crash by any means.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-25-12 12:27 PM:

Quote from luckyluciano:

Well if itis a crash, it's more based on Emotion rather than fundamentals. Like I said before, earnings are great overall and companies are profitable and growing.

Oh yeah, what were the earnings calls like in 1999 and 2000? What were they like in 2006 and 2007? Is the right time to buy in long term when the earnings calls are exceedingly bullish or when they are bearish?

Posted by logic_man on 04-25-12 12:31 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Apple is up big in afterhours, but the ES is only up 4 points and the TF a few at most. The TF hasnt blown through last years highs and dragging. So what do you think will happen when the UK GDP comes out tommorrow or the US GDP on Friday? What do you think will happen in May?

This is a slow motion crash and I dont expect to see the same aliases here after May. Lucrum will be here on the other hand because he is just some old man in Arkansas that doesnt trade and lives off of Obama's Social Security.

Still think you're "right"? If so, I'd hate to see what happens to your positions when you're wrong.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-25-12 12:41 PM:

Quote from logic_man:

Still think you're "right"? If so, I'd hate to see what happens to your positions when you're wrong.

I think Ive been fairly right this whole time. Right now, this is the topping pattern where the /TF now resembles a head and shoulders over several weeks. On Friday the GDP number comes out, but there are many other events happening daily. May is still a few days away.

The thing you are not seeing is how Apple was so oversold yesterday. So this was do for a correction. I went long yesterday right before the close the leading stocks AAPL, CMG, PCLN, MA, V, ISRG along with a few China names like DANG and RENN. My expectation is for a bump and I will sell those names probably either today or next. Im not going to hold through the GDP #s.

Posted by logic_man on 04-25-12 01:01 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

I think Ive been fairly right this whole time. Right now, this is the topping pattern where the /TF now resembles a head and shoulders over several weeks. On Friday the GDP number comes out, but there are many other events happening daily. May is still a few days away.

The thing you are not seeing is how Apple was so oversold yesterday. So this was do for a correction. I went long yesterday right before the close the leading stocks AAPL, CMG, PCLN, MA, V, ISRG along with a few China names like DANG and RENN. My expectation is for a bump and I will sell those names probably either today or next. Im not going to hold through the GDP #s.

Ugh, man, you can't debate with someone who's just tuned reality out, but I will mention again that when you started this thread, we were LOWER than we are NOW.

Not to mention that we are still only 3-4% off the ES highs after a month of correcting. That is not a "crash", that's simply a dip in a bull market until proven otherwise.

And you, the attention whore extraordinaire, went long at the close without starting a thread to announce it? Sure you did. And I had sex with Scarlett Johansson last night, so it sounds like the hours after the market close were good for both of us.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-25-12 01:11 PM:

Quote from logic_man:

Ugh, man, you can't debate with someone who's just tuned reality out, but I will mention again that when you started this thread, we were LOWER than we are NOW.

Not to mention that we are still only 3-4% off the ES highs after a month of correcting. That is not a "crash", that's simply a dip in a bull market until proven otherwise.

And you, the attention whore extraordinaire, went long at the close without starting a thread to announce it? Sure you did. And I had sex with Scarlett Johansson last night, so it sounds like the hours after the market close were good for both of us.

I said this was a slow motion crash and since you make it a policy not to announce real time calls then I will do that too as well.

Posted by logic_man on 04-25-12 01:26 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

I said this was a slow motion crash and since you make it a policy not to announce real time calls then I will do that too as well.

Sure, man. And, actually, I made a real-time call that you were wrong two weeks ago about this being a crash and so far, I'm right.

Here's another real-time call. In 2013, your user name will be "blowingup2013", not "madeatonfromtheslowmotioncrash2013".

I'd say "good luck", but I doubt you'd know what to do with it.

Posted by Lucrum on 04-25-12 01:46 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

I said this was a slow motion crash.....

Well if the market is higher now that when the "crash" started wouldn't that be a
slow motion reverse crash?

Where do these buffoons come from?

Posted by logic_man on 04-25-12 02:10 PM:

This morning's reaction to the UK GDP and the terrible durable goods numbers are another great example of something which separates good traders from bad. Bad traders will try to game out in advance what the reaction to a good or bad number will be, but good traders wait to see if the reaction triggers a trade and warrants putting capital at-risk.

Anticipating reactions to events is a fool's game. Pros understand how to take advantage of the movement after the event, when they can better understand their risk and manage their open trades.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-25-12 02:11 PM:

Just bought some BIDU in the premarket.

Posted by Lucrum on 04-25-12 02:29 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Just bought some BIDU in the premarket.

An odd thing to do for someone who thinks we're in a "slow motion crash".

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-25-12 02:33 PM:

Just dumped and shorted Apple. Why is buying BIDU an odd thing? Whats the growth rate of the US and whats the growth rate of China? What rank is BIDU ranked in China in regards to popularity and webhits? Let me help you out there, its #1.

Posted by Lucrum on 04-25-12 02:53 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

...Why is buying BIDU an odd thing?

Quote from blowingup2012:

Im going to add Lucrum to my list right now.

Did you forget?

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-25-12 03:11 PM:

Quote from Lucrum:

Did you forget?

Haha. I wouldnt be bragging about 26000 posts on a message board. So it took you 8 years and 6-7 daily posts. Thats not exactly an accomplishment. 8 years of posting thousands of posts and not one brokerage ticket or real time call. Good job!

Posted by Lucrum on 04-25-12 03:21 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

... 8 years of posting thousands of posts and not one brokerage ticket or real time call. Good job!

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...30&pagenumber=7

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...915#post2030915

Speaking of tickets, about your BIDU and APPL tickets from this morning?

Or do you just post BS?

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-25-12 03:29 PM:

Ok can you post links to your real time calls?

Posted by Lucrum on 04-25-12 03:52 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Ok can you post links to your real time calls?

Most of my real time calls were done in the ET Index futures chat room.
In true real time. Entries stops and exits.
I was a charter member so to speak in asking for and getting it set up.

It went on for many months, before bighog and one of his brain dead cronies crashed the party. And ran everyone off with politics and bad jokes.

Now, how about those BIDU and APPL tickets of yours from this morning?

It's time to put up...or shut the fuck up.

Posted by Wide Tailz on 04-25-12 04:40 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Just bought some BIDU in the premarket.

chaosclarity

Posted by satchel on 04-25-12 05:39 PM:

This thread is about to be transformed to 'We are in a slow motion MELT-UP'. Nice while it lasted.

pre-FOMC run-up started 48 hrs ago. Anyone notice?

__________________
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty.--Frank Herbert

Posted by satchel on 04-25-12 05:55 PM:

fitting if the above posted at exact Low of the Day.

__________________
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty.--Frank Herbert

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-25-12 06:18 PM:

Watch how its done. I dont expect Apple to be back up at these levels for several months if at all.

Posted by Lucrum on 04-25-12 06:24 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Watch how its done....

Watch what exactly? Some unsubstantiated claims? How about those trading tickets?

Posted by satchel on 04-25-12 08:51 PM:

70 pts up on the Nasdaq (cough cough)

get ready for crickets.

__________________
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty.--Frank Herbert

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-25-12 08:56 PM:

If you guys got in on DANG today when I gave the signal you wouldnt be here wondering why you didnt get a piece. Apple gaps up and you buy it, haha, what a joke. Then you sell your DANG and BIDU and it climbs higher.

What you need is a system.

Posted by Tsing Tao on 04-25-12 10:07 PM:

Another failed thread. Slow motion crash indeed.

Posted by Lucrum on 04-26-12 11:24 PM:

Re: We are in a slow motion Crash!

Quote from blowingup2012:

"slow-motion crash."

How about now?

And when you gonna post those BIDU and APPL tickets?

Posted by keeptradin' on 04-26-12 11:36 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

If you guys got in on DANG today when I gave the signal you wouldnt be here wondering why you didnt get a piece. Apple gaps up and you buy it, haha, what a joke. Then you sell your DANG and BIDU and it climbs higher.

What you need is a system.

You are starting to sound like an alias of "stock777"

__________________
Work is for people who don't know how to trade!

Posted by satchel on 04-26-12 11:55 PM:

stock777 actually has a sense of humor and it is sharp. blow2012 sounds like they are 12 years old.

Anyway, after being long side trades for 4 days, I shorted the afternoon and end of day and the trading deities have rained down the Spain downgrade. So maybe this thread has merit again after a 50 point S&P run.

__________________
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty.--Frank Herbert

Posted by keeptradin' on 04-27-12 12:03 AM:

Quote from satchel:

stock777 actually has a sense of humor and it is sharp. blow2012 sounds like they are 12 years old.

Anyway, after being long side trades for 4 days, I shorted the afternoon and end of day and the trading deities have rained down the Spain downgrade. So maybe this thread has merit again after a 50 point S&P run.

Looks like you have done something to please the "Trading Gods". Any dead chickens laying around your property?? LOL...Just kidding!!

It's the after the fact, "atodaso" manner of writing that makes me think that "Stock" has decided to morph into another personality, one that hates AAPL, and loves Asian issues.

__________________
Work is for people who don't know how to trade!

Posted by Lucrum on 04-27-12 12:07 AM:

Quote from keeptradin':

You are starting to sound like an alias of "stock777"

Anything is possible, but I doubt it. They are two entirely different kind of assholes.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-27-12 12:24 AM:

Quote from satchel:

Anyway, after being long side trades for 4 days, I shorted the afternoon and end of day...

This is exactly what I have found in these trading forums more times then not...after the fact trades which have absolutely no merit and no credibility. No one ever made dime one on an after the fact trade. and no one respects or believes this type of post unless its some type of sucker. What does have credibility and has gotten people opportunities on these boards is a solid trading journal with exact entries and exits posted in real time. Throw in a brokerage receipt too for more backup. Well, a successful trading journal. Unsuccessful trading journals dont get you anywhere.

There are two reasons why folks disappear from these forums. They either have found an opportunity and no longer need to post or they blew up their account. The rest who press on in these forums are either trolls, crazies or vendors of some type.

Posted by Lucrum on 04-27-12 12:29 AM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

....Throw in a brokerage receipt too for more backup.....

Still waiting for those BIDU and APPL trades of yours.

Posted by keeptradin' on 04-27-12 12:34 AM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

The rest who press on in these forums are either trolls, crazies or vendors of some type.

Okay, you got me there. Guilty on two of three counts.

__________________
Work is for people who don't know how to trade!

Posted by bwolinsky on 04-27-12 01:06 AM:

The preoccupation of posters to denounce anybody who wants to help people make their investment decisions for them is a symptom of trading gambling.

Professionals can help you make money, but any educational material is nearly always a waste of time and money unless it comes with code for you to verify results on your own. If you have such code, making trading decisions yourself for other people means more people will want to join if you're doing well.

CTA's especially can't hide their results, but marking those as vendors is a different subject than the single system anonymous aliases of C2.

__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?

Bud Fox

Wall Street

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-27-12 01:29 AM:

Quote from bwolinsky:

The preoccupation of posters to denounce anybody who wants to help people make their investment decisions for them is a symptom of trading gambling.

I only denounce "after the fact" the fact trade announcements on message boards. There is no place for that here or on any trading board.

Posted by Lucrum on 04-27-12 01:31 AM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

I only denounce "after the fact" the fact trade announcements on message boards. There is no place for that here or on any trading board.

How about those BIDU and APPL trading tickets you promised?

Posted by bwolinsky on 04-27-12 01:39 AM:

Quote from Lucrum:

How about those BIDU and APPL trading tickets you promised?

You know he doesn't have them.

__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?

Bud Fox

Wall Street

Posted by Lucrum on 04-27-12 01:45 AM:

Quote from bwolinsky:

You know he doesn't have them.

Oh I know, I just like eviscerating chumps like him for mentioning "real time calls and blotters" then refusing to post one themselves.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-27-12 02:04 AM:

When you guys openly post your tickets then so will I.

Posted by Lucrum on 04-27-12 02:08 AM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

When you guys openly post your tickets then so will I.

Your turn.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-27-12 03:43 AM:

To be honest, this isnt coming as fast as I like, but I know its just around the corner and maybe even in the morning with the GDP #s. Certainly Europe wont help and it seemed like AAPL wanted to sink lower today.

Do such wild stock surges mark tops? They do at times. Sometimes the market will surge to new highs with stocks moving up nicely and then wham, recession.

Posted by Lucrum on 04-27-12 08:17 AM:

Stopped out for a very small gain

Still waiting for blowingsomebody to put up or shut.

Posted by dewton on 04-27-12 08:20 AM:

You know the famous saying, "what goes up must come down"? Well there's another saying that I use that's just as valid:

"What goes out of the banking system must come back to the banking system, with interest. Else, collapse."

It's like a law of the monetary system.

Posted by SteveNYC on 04-27-12 12:13 PM:

Quote from dewton:

You know the famous saying, "what goes up must come down"

Who said this?

Posted by keeptradin' on 04-27-12 12:53 PM:

Quote from SteveNYC:

Who said this?

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Who_wrote..._must_come_down

__________________
Work is for people who don't know how to trade!

Posted by SteveNYC on 04-27-12 01:08 PM:

Quote from keeptradin':

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Who_wrote..._must_come_down

Wiki said:

maybe newton?

yes it was Isaac Newton... the law of gravity!

Only problem, of course, is that this is actually something that he conclusively disproved. If an object has a sufficiently high upward velocity, gravity, weakening evermore with increasing distance, will not be able to bring the object down. It will be in a 'hyperbolic' orbit.

In other words, it is popularly attributed to him, but it is unlikely that he said it.

I think Chuck Norris said it before he karate chopped his foe.

Chuck Norris is smarter than Sir Isaac Newton.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-27-12 01:32 PM:

The game is now over! This is done! The GDP number was a disappointment as expected. The ES is now in a freefall.

Posted by trefoil on 04-27-12 01:55 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

The game is now over! This is done! The GDP number was a disappointment as expected. The ES is now in a freefall.

Posted by Lucrum on 04-27-12 02:19 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

The game is now over! This is done! The GDP number was a disappointment as expected. The ES is now in a freefall.

"Free fall" huh? Why is it in the green now then?

And how about those BIDU and APPL tickets you promised dopey?

Posted by hajimow on 04-27-12 02:58 PM:

I feel S&P will start to drop as of today. It shows exhaustion. No crash but just 4% correction in a week specially that we are entering May next week.

By the way S&P is up now slightly.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-27-12 03:11 PM:

One day my work will be appreciated here. On a daily basis I have to endure the haters, but I truly believe that if you follow my posts you will get a little nugget of information.

All I can tell you now is just buy GOLD.

Posted by satchel on 04-27-12 03:11 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

This is exactly what I have found in these trading forums more times then not...after the fact trades which have absolutely no merit and no credibility. No one ever made dime one on an after the fact trade. and no one respects or believes this type of post unless its some type of sucker. What does have credibility and has gotten people opportunities on these boards is a solid trading journal with exact entries and exits posted in real time. Throw in a brokerage receipt too for more backup. Well, a successful trading journal. Unsuccessful trading journals dont get you anywhere.

There are two reasons why folks disappear from these forums. They either have found an opportunity and no longer need to post or they blew up their account. The rest who press on in these forums are either trolls, crazies or vendors of some type.

After all that I have no clue what your point is. Less is more.

If you are referring to my shorting the afternoon yesterday, I don't have to post a trade a call a whatever in advance, in the moment, after the fact, get it notarized. What's with the entitlement these days. No one is Entitled to anything. I shorted, it went down, who cares except the account statement.

__________________
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty.--Frank Herbert

Posted by keeptradin' on 04-27-12 03:18 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

The game is now over! This is done! The GDP number was a disappointment as expected. The ES is now in a freefall.

CrAAPLe looking like it wants to test the 600 level.

All the folks who bought this week after the earnings are gonna have a LOOONG weekend...

__________________
Work is for people who don't know how to trade!

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-27-12 03:42 PM:

Quote from satchel:

If you are referring to my shorting the afternoon yesterday, I don't have to post a trade in advance

YES YOU DO! OH YES YOU DO!

The rules of this forum clearly state that all trades must be posted prior to them happening.

Posted by Lucrum on 04-27-12 07:29 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

The rules of this forum clearly state that all trades must be posted prior to them happening.

What are the rules concerning trade tickets which YOU refuse to post?

Posted by PlinytheTrader on 04-27-12 08:00 PM:

Quote from Lucrum:

What are the rules concerning trade tickets which YOU refuse to post?

The rules are that you ignore such request to prove your word until someone else posts another topic that you can reply to. That way you can continue to stay in the spotlight while not having to address anyone who questions the stupid thread he created. Or at least that is what i am picking up on.

Posted by blowingup2012 on 04-30-12 02:36 PM:

Another week starts and back at it. Looks like we are in the red today after stock pumpers got the best of the indexes last week. Now they are gone, Cramer goes back to his hole and the indexes drop. What say you?

Posted by satchel on 04-30-12 02:44 PM:

Yep, loving the red.

__________________
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires. Seek discipline and find your liberty.--Frank Herbert

Posted by luckyluciano on 04-30-12 05:20 PM:

Quote from blowingup2012:

Another week starts and back at it. Looks like we are in the red today after stock pumpers got the best of the indexes last week. Now they are gone, Cramer goes back to his hole and the indexes drop. What say you?

Are wein a crash because stocks are over valued? What say You?

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