Forums - Goldman: 3 Reasons The S&p 500 Will Decline To 1,250

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-- Goldman: 3 Reasons The S&p 500 Will Decline To 1,250 (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=238842)

Posted by Andromeda on 03-16-12 10:20 AM:

Goldman: 3 Reasons The S&p 500 Will Decline To 1,250

http://pragcap.com/goldman-3-reason...decline-to-1250

Posted by pma on 03-16-12 10:29 AM:

Re: Goldman: 3 Reasons The S&p 500 Will Decline To 1,250

[QUOTE]Quote from Andromeda:

http://pragcap.com/goldman-3-reason...decline-to-1250 [/QU
...which means keep on buying...duh

Posted by bwolinsky on 03-16-12 11:31 AM:

“Kostin said there were three main reasons for his call:
1.The U.S. economy is stagnating, growing below trend.
2.In a weak economic growth environment, markets historically have a flat multiple
3.2012 is expected to see earnings growth of only 3 percent.”

Per 1, 2+% growth with negative real interest rates is net 3% ie:not below or above trend but at trend.
Per 2, His estimate of earnings growth is wrong. Would put it at high single digits.
Per 3, growth expectations are 5-8% from analysts I consider credible.

Basically his growth estimate is wildly inaccurate, and S&P earnings were up 17% last year, so there's no reason it should be so low. Happy to take the other side of his strategy, but I am more inclined to eye my large share purchase of SQQQ happening soon.

__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?

Bud Fox

Wall Street

Posted by piezoe on 03-16-12 09:31 PM:

He'll be right after the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, in the meantime he'll be Kostin you money.

Posted by Random.Capital on 03-16-12 09:32 PM:

#1 Reason: because markets are volatile in nature and 1250 isn't very far from the current price.

Why does this sort of beyond-empty prediction even get any attention?

Posted by turkeyneck on 03-16-12 09:57 PM:

Does Goldman have any credibility left?

Posted by flipside21 on 03-16-12 10:00 PM:

Quote from piezoe:

He'll be right after the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, in the meantime he'll be Kostin you money.

LMAO.

Posted by bigarrow on 03-16-12 10:03 PM:

Quote from bwolinsky:

I am more inclined to eye my large share purchase of SQQQ happening soon.

Let us know when you do this, it'll be interesting to watch.

__________________
"I don't wear no Stetson But I'm willin' to bet son That I'm as big a Texan as you are"

Posted by bwolinsky on 03-17-12 04:10 PM:

Quote from bigarrow:

Let us know when you do this, it'll be interesting to watch.

Out of overbought so we'd have to rise a couple percent or if we go down oversold that is about 3% lower.

__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?

Bud Fox

Wall Street

Posted by xiaodre on 03-17-12 04:56 PM:

Why on Earth would anyone believe anything a Goldman monkey has to squeak?

Posted by tenthousandmen on 03-17-12 05:23 PM:

Quote from turkeyneck:

Does Goldman have any credibility left?

ha ha

they have image problems bigger than tiger woods!

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