Forums - Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling

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Posted by DollarBondsCL on 02-29-12 06:34 AM:

Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling

Hi
A little about me, I started trading in early 1990s, currently I trade oil dollar bonds and few home stocks
This article peeked my interest because it is congruent with my own analysis of prices./

Panic is in the air as gasoline prices move above $4.00 per gallon. Politicians and pundits are rounding up the usual suspects, looking for someone or something to blame for this latest outrage to middle class family budgets. In a rare display of bipartisanship, President Obama and Speaker of the House John Boehner are both wringing their hands over the prospect of seeing their newly extended Social Security tax cut gobbled up by rising gasoline costs.

Unfortunately, the talking heads that are trying to explain the reasons for high oil prices are missing one tiny detail. Oil prices aren’t high right now. In fact, they are unusually low. Gasoline prices would have to rise by another $0.65 to $0.75 per gallon from where they are now just to be “normal”. And, because gasoline prices are low right now, it is very likely that they are going to go up more—perhaps a lot more.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswo...lar-is-falling/

Posted by DollarBondsCL on 02-29-12 09:34 AM:

Keep in mind FED is not including price of food and oil in inflation calculations.
And if you are of mistrustful nature you would assume this is intentional. Does anyone else agree or disagree.

Posted by Martinghoul on 02-29-12 12:42 PM:

Not this discussion again...

__________________
Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say, I ask, if it matters, that you be forgiven for anything you may have done or failed to do which requires forgiveness...

Posted by nazzdack on 02-29-12 03:26 PM:

Re: Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling

Quote from DollarBondsCL:
----This article peeked.....

1) The word you were looking for was "piqued".

2) To peek is something you do with your eyes.

3) If you want to cure someone of insomnia, talk to them about currency devaluation.

Posted by Scataphagos on 02-29-12 03:28 PM:

Quote from DollarBondsCL:

Keep in mind FED is not including price of food and oil in inflation calculations.
And if you are of mistrustful nature you would assume this is intentional. Does anyone else agree or disagree.

What? You're saying... "The Fed and The Government distort, exaggerate, even LIE TO THE PEOPLE?"

What kind of Commie are you?

Posted by Bob111 on 02-29-12 03:34 PM:

----Gasoline Prices Are Not Rising, the Dollar Is Falling--

did you just realize this? kind of obvious for anyone,who do trade or able to apply common sense to this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts? s...ource=undefined

Posted by DollarBondsCL on 03-01-12 01:41 AM:

Quote from Scataphagos:

What? You're saying... "The Fed and The Government distort, exaggerate, even LIE TO THE PEOPLE?"

What kind of Commie are you?

Thanks for making me laugh, good one

Posted by DollarBondsCL on 03-01-12 01:44 AM:

Quote from Martinghoul:

Not this discussion again...

Hello
Are you high school student / teenager/ or construction worker/plumber
Do you have any financial experience or knowledge?

Please read this article

Will Fed push oil to $200 a barrel?
Bernanke seems intent on yet another round of stimulus, long after it will do any good. That will open the door to inflation -- and within a few years, $7-a-gallon gas.
http://money.msn.com/exchange-trade...mirhaydari.aspx

Posted by S2007S on 03-01-12 04:52 AM:

Filled up my car today, a little less than a quarter, cost over $50.00 or nearly $4.20 a gallon!!!

I cant wait till it gets to $4.50....

Posted by upandcomer on 03-01-12 08:50 AM:

Quote from DollarBondsCL:

Hello
Are you high school student / teenager/ or construction worker/plumber
Do you have any financial experience or knowledge?

You are arrogant and probably a know-it-all/ass hole in real life.

Congrats.

Posted by DollarBondsCL on 03-02-12 09:11 AM:

Quote from upandcomer:

You are arrogant and probably a know-it-all/ass hole in real life.

Congrats.

not at all
since everybody can comment and some people like this Martinghoul know nothing

Posted by Martinghoul on 03-02-12 09:45 AM:

Quote from DollarBondsCL:
not at all
since everybody can comment and some people like this Martinghoul know nothing

I will take this as a compliment... Grazie!

Posted by piezoe on 03-02-12 01:14 PM:

Martinhoul is one of the more informed contributors to ET.

Posted by DollarBondsCL on 03-02-12 01:42 PM:

Quote from piezoe:

Martinhoul is one of the more informed contributors to ET.

If that is so

Then why isn't he informed enough to see relationship between dollar devaluation and skyrocketing oil prices.
He didn't even write down his view point, he only said "oh no not this again" like some mall teenager.

Is Martinghoul the best this site can offer?

Why didn't he at least make a pathetic attempt to blame China and India for driving up demand thus prices as the sole reason.

He didn't even try arguing. Perhaps because he knows he will be slaughtered here in public.

Made fool of.

Posted by Martinghoul on 03-02-12 02:29 PM:

Don't be a muppet, DBCL...

Look at the attached chart (DXY vs the 1st Brent contract). Do you see any particular relationship? Do you observe that this year DXY has gone down arnd 1.25%, while Brent moved the other way by roughly 11.5%? If you do a linear regression between the two (using changes, levels or whatever), you will observe a very low R^2.

Is there anything else I can help you with?

Posted by foo on 03-02-12 02:31 PM:

Quote from DollarBondsCL:

If that is so

Then why isn't he informed enough to see relationship between dollar devaluation and skyrocketing oil prices.
He didn't even write down his view point, he only said "oh no not this again" like some mall teenager.

Is Martinghoul the best this site can offer?

Why didn't he at least make a pathetic attempt to blame China and India for driving up demand thus prices as the sole reason.

He didn't even try arguing. Perhaps because he knows he will be slaughtered here in public.

Made fool of.

Because the story is a repost.....also this topic has been covered ad nasuseum here on ole' ET.

Posted by FCCT on 03-02-12 02:44 PM:

Quote from Martinghoul:

Don't be a muppet, DBCL...

Look at the attached chart (DXY vs the 1st Brent contract). Do you see any particular relationship? Do you observe that this year DXY has gone down arnd 1.25%, while Brent moved the other way by roughly 11.5%? If you do a linear regression between the two (using changes, levels or whatever), you will observe a very low R^2.

Is there anything else I can help you with?

Is DXY a fair representation of the dollar? Isnt it a relative comparison against other currencies, and if all currencies were being "devalued" at a similar pace then it would be hard to see any relation.

Posted by Martinghoul on 03-02-12 03:19 PM:

Quote from FCCT:
Is DXY a fair representation of the dollar? Isnt it a relative comparison against other currencies, and if all currencies were being "devalued" at a similar pace then it would be hard to see any relation.

Yes, DXY is a measure of USD vs a basket of other ccies. I don't really know how to measure USD in a way that wouldn't be relative to something else and, as such, potentially distorted. In which case what does "dollar devaluation" actually mean? At any rate, if you can suggest alternatives, pls do.

Posted by zdreg on 03-02-12 04:07 PM:

Quote from DollarBondsCL:

If that is so

Then why isn't he informed enough to see relationship between dollar devaluation and skyrocketing oil prices.
He didn't even write down his view point, he only said "oh no not this again" like some mall teenager.

Is Martinghoul the best this site can offer?

Why didn't he at least make a pathetic attempt to blame China and India for driving up demand thus prices as the sole reason.

He didn't even try arguing. Perhaps because he knows he will be slaughtered here in public.

Made fool of.

while I don't always agree with martinghoul's reasoning to say that he knows nothing is prima facie nonsense. he made an initial meaningless post on this thread. you extrapolated from 1 post which is an obvious error in logic. unfortunately, since you claim to be a princeton graduate one should ask are princeton's student deficient in logic. to ask that?would make me commit the same error as you.

Posted by nazzdack on 03-02-12 04:20 PM:

Quote from Martinghoul:
----a compliment....

Any publicity is "good" publicity!

Posted by nazzdack on 03-02-12 04:23 PM:

Quote from zdreg:
----a princeton graduate....

Everybody graduates summa cum laude from there.

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