Forums - Facebook IPO

Forums (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/index.php)
- Wall St. News (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?forumid=44)
-- Facebook IPO (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=232507)

Posted by johnm4douglas on 12-11-11 06:06 PM:

Facebook IPO

Hi there,

The Upcoming Facebook IPO is quite big, estimated at 100 billion. The interesting question is if it will follow GroupOn or it will last for decades until the whole population is hooked on social media.

There appear to be a lot of speculation involved either way. I compiled an analytical report from various sources but I would definitely like to hear the opinion of those that are thinking of going in.

Regards,
John

Posted by bwolinsky on 12-11-11 10:12 PM:

Re: Facebook IPO

Quote from johnm4douglas:

Hi there,

The Upcoming Facebook IPO is quite big, estimated at 100 billion. The interesting question is if it will follow GroupOn or it will last for decades until the whole population is hooked on social media.

There appear to be a lot of speculation involved either way. I compiled an analytical report from various sources but I would definitely like to hear the opinion of those that are thinking of going in.

Regards,
John

Let's see,

Making $2 billion in thousands $2 million taken over the next 100 years with I/Y 15% discount rate PV is $13.333 million per share, meaning the IPO is completely overvalued and unless I'm wrong about how much revenue they're getting, it's the kind of thing most people don't realize that the point of an IPO is so old owners can sell at a high price and exit.

Kudos to Zuckerberg.

That does not look like a good investment to me, especially at $100 billion, but last auction was at $30 on Second Market and I don't know how many shares are outstanding because they have yet to complete the private securities markets transactions and are still under distribution in a horribly inefficient market.

__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?

Bud Fox

Wall Street

Posted by noone3 on 01-30-12 03:02 PM:

Anyone knows when it will IPO?

Here is a small article about it

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterco...-is-irrelevant/

__________________
hope for the best
prepare for the worst

Posted by S2007S on 01-30-12 04:30 PM:

The money has already been made by the wealthy and rich who got in on the secondary market, once this goes to the public its pretty much worthless to invest in, its completely overvalued at $100 billion, its over valued at $20 billion as well....if they took this company public years ago around the time myspace was purchased by news corp than I could say it would have been a good investment, this company has been propped up by all the people buying on the secondary market and they will be the ones making hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars on this ipo while the little guy starts to buy the company valued at $100 Billion come on, its a worthless investment...Anyone buying on the open market is going to look like a fool, there is no way you will ever see the kind of return that the guys on the secondary market got on their investment.

Posted by stock777 on 01-30-12 04:46 PM:

no one here knows anything about whether this is good or bad. look back at all the anii who bashed GOOG at 100.

or you can ask them yourselves, at the counter where they serve you Big Macs.

__________________
"Those that know ain't saying, and those saying don't know." - E. A. Neumann

A bear since 1958 and proud of it.

Posted by Trendytrader on 01-30-12 06:35 PM:

Facebook is just another Bebo or MySpace on the social networking road. Google watch out also. I am already using duckduckgo for searching.

__________________
The trend is your friend.

Posted by S2007S on 01-30-12 07:39 PM:

Quote from Trendytrader:

Facebook is just another Bebo or MySpace on the social networking road. Google watch out also. I am already using duckduckgo for searching.

Thats all facebook is, everyone thinks this trend is here to stay, everyone got tired of friendster, they got tired of bebo, they got tired of myspace, they will get tired of facebook...something new always comes out that replaces the has been and facebook is already the has been.

Posted by Swan Noir on 01-30-12 07:46 PM:

Isn't the real question whether it is an interesting stock to trade. I presume that most of us trade all sorts of crap that is overvalued. I assume that the intrinsic value of most of the currencies I trade is zero. If I take 10 ticks out of E6 in the AM and 14 more after lunch do I care?

No ... I do not care. I only care about 24 x $12.50 x whatever number of cars I trade.

I do not trade equities but if I did would I care what Facebook is worth now or in five or ten years? Do i care about their balance sheet or ad revenue or anything else?

No ... I do not.

__________________
Swan Noir

Posted by noone3 on 01-30-12 07:47 PM:

It's OK, we can day-trade it
Let us know when there is an ETA

__________________
hope for the best
prepare for the worst

Posted by noone3 on 01-30-12 07:49 PM:

Quote from Swan Noir:

Isn't the real question whether it is an interesting stock to trade. I presume that most of us trade all sorts of crap that is overvalued. I assume that the intrinsic value of most of the currencies I trade is zero. If I take 10 ticks out of E6 do I care?

No ... I do not care.

I do not trade equities but if I did would I care what Facebook is worth now or in five or ten years. Do i care about their balance sheet or ad revenue or anything else?

No ... I do not.

+1

Lets hope it moves a lot

__________________
hope for the best
prepare for the worst

Posted by wolfab82 on 01-30-12 08:04 PM:

Quote from Trendytrader:

Facebook is just another Bebo or MySpace on the social networking road. Google watch out also. I am already using duckduckgo for searching.

Nailed it. I think you are wrong about google though. That company is still growing. Think of what they have done in cellphone space, also, wait till they make more hardware or a low priced pc.

Google is the next microsoft or has already surpassed them.

FB is not high on my list of possible good ipo's. Remember Angieslist, Groupon, LinkedIn clusterfuck?

Eeeeeeggggggggggxactly. ha.

I think it will go to the moon, and then the music will stop. What will happen when Zynga continues to grow, this time, without FB to help?

Also, FB is extremely easy to copycat. Googleplus needs to get their shit together as far as UI goes. People are simple, we like attractive sites. Googleplus looks like shit but has tremendous upside potential.

Also, a smart Harvard kid has a website about their alleged fishy AD revenue and practice. He claims to have worked with them. His company is redbox or something weird like that. Im gonna go google it. Ha.

Posted by macroman on 01-30-12 08:08 PM:

Quote from noone3:

+1

Lets hope it moves a lot

i think it is not worh it. black swan thing can get you with uncomfy high odds. functionaliuty of web page can be replicated & enhanced by 3 russian programmers in 6 months. so no value there.

Huge marketing campaign to create brand, but again this is not cocacola. cocacola cant be exactly replicated.

however, it is good to get pension funds to buy at the top and extract money and increase consumption and create couple of jobs and give some feeling of selfrespect to generation that lives in this unfortunate times..

regrettably for them, it's all fake.

Posted by jokepie on 01-30-12 08:16 PM:

What i love about this IPO is the timing of it.. they stalled the IPO when we started to drift lower few months ago and now that everyone is hopeful for a rally in the markets and bamm....here comes the IPO.... A classic sign of ....

__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"

Posted by macroman on 01-30-12 08:32 PM:

Quote from jokepie:

What i love about this IPO is the timing of it.. they stalled the IPO when we started to drift lower few months ago and now that everyone is hopeful for a rally in the markets and bamm....here comes the IPO.... A classic sign of ....

UP.

Posted by mostlysilent on 01-30-12 11:58 PM:

Finding shares to borrow for shorting will not be easy. Anybody have thoughts on when put options will be available to buy? IV may be high on these, but I'll bet they still make money.

Posted by Swan Noir on 01-31-12 08:35 PM:

Why would any syndicate manager market a big, aggressive IPO at the wrong time? Their job is not to predict conditions as they will exist in three months but to market the issue under favorable conditions as the deal breaks. They have no need to catch the top of the wave ... but they do like to have a nice wave.

Quote from jokepie:

What i love about this IPO is the timing of it.. they stalled the IPO when we started to drift lower few months ago and now that everyone is hopeful for a rally in the markets and bamm....here comes the IPO.... A classic sign of ....

__________________
Swan Noir

Posted by Random.Capital on 01-31-12 08:54 PM:

Quote from jokepie:

A classic sign of ....

...paying attention, mostly.

Posted by peilthetraveler on 02-01-12 03:36 AM:

History always repeats itself. In 2007 Myspace was valued at $12 billion and had $1 billion in revenue.

6 months ago Justin Timberlake & Specific Media bought Myspace for $35 million and the company was expected to lose $165 million for 2011.

Alot can go wrong in a few years....

Posted by ForexForex on 02-01-12 07:02 AM:

My guess is that FaceBook will be the next GOOG and AAPL. I also think that there is a FaceBook Phone in the works, just scroll through your friend list and give them a call. The FaceBook Phone would be a major seller, probably top the iPhone.

Do not short FaceBook.

4,495,657 people like this.

All times are GMT. The time now is 05:41 PM.