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-- Starting with 1 ES contract... (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=223646)
Starting with 1 ES contract...
...how long would it take to scale up to 333 contracts day trading only?
Who here has achieved this?
Who believes it is possible?
Who would like to achieve this?
Who has a reliable methodology coupled with an even temperament?
Here is a challenge open to all who can muster the necessary qualities.
1. Devise or adopt a strategy for taking net points daily from the ES contract.
2. Develop the correct attitude towards success, achievement, and money - coupled with an unstressed, even temperament.
3. Fund a futures account with $5,000.
4. Trade 1 lot for every $3,000 in the account - to start, 1 lot.
5. Apply the methodology to take net points from the market daily.
For every $3,000 trading profit, one adds another contract. By the time you are trading 10 lots, 6 ES points net gain buys another contract, or a 10% increase in position size.
In these conditions, a trader with a reliable methodology should be able to take between 2 and 20 ES points per trading day net profit. The better the trader, the more points, and the faster capital accumulates.
I am interested to see who can go from 1 lot to 333 lots (which is also $5,000 to $1,000,000) in the fewest consecutive trading days.
Any takers?
I'm interested.
Trading with $3000 per emini for one contract is different than trading $3000 per contract for 10 contracts. At least it is for me, you may have ice water in your veins though. But hell go for it man.
__________________
"I don't wear no Stetson But I'm willin' to bet son That I'm as big a Texan as you are"
Quote from bigarrow:
Trading with $3000 per emini for one contract is different than trading $3000 per contract for 10 contracts. At least it is for me, you may have ice water in your veins though. But hell go for it man.
What you are asking for is a winning lottery ticket.
FoN
Quote from Blotto:
I've never properly traded more than 80 contracts, so I have absolutely no idea how I would react. I've not got myself truly comfortable above 40. This is more to do with my risk management. I think if I had three million in a trading account, I'd have no problem with 200 lots. Of course this is still far too much risk.
I did my first 100 lot within my first 18 months of live trading. I don't remember anything about the trade itself. I just had an aggressive position sizing plan and one day it was time. Of course by the time I hit 140 (about a month after my first 100) I managed to lose 30% of my net worth in a few weeks. Given that I had started with a 2 lot, I took this in my stride, but have never been near 100 lots since. I suspect I won't for years either.
Interestingly, I took so much risk during the "experimental" phase before I made this my only career and income that I'm not really bothered by size. I know that I have the capability to execute at least 140 lots. Even if I choke at 141, I know I'll do okay with the 140. Equally, even trading an extra 10 or 20 contracts when equity / profit allows doesn't really affect me. I think I'm immunised against the effects as I had one of the swiftest up and down again possible when I first got into trading. I learned a lot of lessons, although I did make mistakes that set me back years. Valuable experiences. I don't hold overnights and I always have stops pretty close. Unless I become good enough to play in the big leagues, I don't think I'll be taking very large hits (or very large gains) in proportion to my capital ever again.
I just look at size now in terms of position sizing and market liquidity. I'm not going to start paying myself more when I trade more contracts - it just means that the account grows a little quicker and I'm another step towards lowering the leverage.
Quote from noaveragingdown:
I'll make this quick.
You are full of shit.
NAD
Quote from noaveragingdown:
In my experience, mixing the timeframes tends to give me too many conflicting signals, therefore, I opted to stick with just one and keep it simple.
NAD
Quote from FreakofNature:
What you are asking for is a winning lottery ticket.
FoN
99.9999999% of people will blow up that $5,000 within a week trading as aggressively as Blotto suggests.
I'm more interested in going from 333 cars to 100,000 cars, than from 1 car to 333 cars, but I will read this thread nonetheless.
Quote from Blotto:
If you're going to call me a liar, be specific. Makes it easier to call you on your bs.
You on the other hand clearly know all, and we have much to learn from your "simple" approach. Simple minds amused by simple things perhaps?
Conflicting signals...that is funny.
Very apt. Somebody buys a winning lottery ticket each week. Are there traders with winning lottery tickets?
Quote from flipside21:
99.9999999% of people will blow up that $5,000 within a week trading as aggressively as Blotto suggests.
Quote from noaveragingdown:
I'll be specific.
Ive seen you post calls in the ES Journal only to delete them when you were clearly wrong.
Think you gain respect from such actions ? Think again.
NAD
blotto: Ignore the naysayers and get on with the matter at hand.
Re: Starting with 1 ES contract...
I'm curious where you came up with the number 333? You would have liquidity issues to deal with at that level. Even at 100 lots you can expect partial or incomplete fills on the ES.
I think you're making a mistake by fixing your position size at a certain number. I don't put the same number of cars on every trade. As a general example, some trades call for 2 lots, others call for 20 while others call for 40. The quality of the setup dictates the size of the trade.
To answer your question. I think you need at least a year of profitable trading before you begin to increase your position size. If you start having problems scale back and repeat. The psychological hurdles are magnified when position size increases. It takes time to overcome that.
Quote from Blotto:
...how long would it take to scale up to 333 contracts day trading only?
Who here has achieved this?
Who believes it is possible?
Who would like to achieve this?
Who has a reliable methodology coupled with an even temperament?
Here is a challenge open to all who can muster the necessary qualities.
1. Devise or adopt a strategy for taking net points daily from the ES contract.
2. Develop the correct attitude towards success, achievement, and money - coupled with an unstressed, even temperament.
3. Fund a futures account with $5,000.
4. Trade 1 lot for every $3,000 in the account - to start, 1 lot.
5. Apply the methodology to take net points from the market daily.
For every $3,000 trading profit, one adds another contract. By the time you are trading 10 lots, 6 ES points net gain buys another contract, or a 10% increase in position size.
In these conditions, a trader with a reliable methodology should be able to take between 2 and 20 ES points per trading day net profit. The better the trader, the more points, and the faster capital accumulates.
I am interested to see who can go from 1 lot to 333 lots (which is also $5,000 to $1,000,000) in the fewest consecutive trading days.
Any takers?
I asked in an earlier thread and no body responded. Ill ask again here since I am interested .
Anyone can answer I guess but I'd like the answer from a successful futures trader.
What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have in your futures account? What percentage is in long term diversivied investments?
for trading futures, Assume you like to only risk .05% per trade as your max risk limit per trade. Do you risk .05% of your liquid net worth on a trade or .05% of your futures account on a trade?
personally I have 10% of net worth in futures account and 90% in long term diversified. Interested in what other futures traders do?
This is assuming you have a tested reliable methodology for trading futures on a shorter term TF (intraday)
As for the answer to the OP's question. Less than a year. Possible, but very unlikely.
With constant risk of 2% (2 pts/car/5k), RR of 4-6 (8-12 pts target), Win ratio of 30-40%, it is doable.
That's my system (rather the one taught to me, which I am trying to adapt), unfortunately my D (or lack of it) keeps me from making progress.
To the OP,
the fact that you would even post such meaningless question about how long would it take to progress from 1 contract to the hundreds shows you have no business trading at this time.
The only thing you should be concentrating on at this time is enhancing the performance(win loss ratio) of whatever strategy(s) you are using and weighing that with proper risk reward parameters.
research, testing, practice,....research, testing, and more practice
...it will make a you a better trader in the long run.
Quote from Blotto:
I frequently delete and edit posts.
Many traders spend a lot of time (years, decades? ) "creating" a system that at the end of the road will not work with any size worth trading.
For example, many "price action" traders gravitate towards the CL, when it is obvious that their method/system/whatsisname they are developing (most of them very discretionary) will completely break down if they attempt to trade it with as few as 5 contracts, just on stop slippage for example.
Just one of the many issues with getting bigger. Generally it is much easier getting in than getting out, and nobody likes to talk about getting out. Getting in?. Sure: Sell 2,000 ES at the market, you'll get a fill within 3-4 ticks in RTH. Now try getting out of that, without losing an eye...
Re: Re: Starting with 1 ES contract...
Quote from the1:
I'm curious where you came up with the number 333? You would have liquidity issues to deal with at that level. Even at 100 lots you can expect partial or incomplete fills on the ES.
Quote from the1:
I think you're making a mistake by fixing your position size at a certain number. I don't put the same number of cars on every trade. As a general example, some trades call for 2 lots, others call for 20 while others call for 40. The quality of the setup dictates the size of the trade.
Quote from the1:
To answer your question. I think you need at least a year of profitable trading before you begin to increase your position size. If you start having problems scale back and repeat. The psychological hurdles are magnified when position size increases. It takes time to overcome that.
Quote from southbeach4me:
To the OP,
the fact that you would even post such meaningless question about how long would it take to progress from 1 contract to the hundreds shows you have no business trading at this time.
The only thing you should be concentrating on at this time is enhancing the performance(win loss ratio) of whatever strategy(s) you are using and weighing that with proper risk reward parameters.
research, testing, practice,....research, testing, and more practice
...it will make a you a better trader in the long run.
Quote from eudaemon:
Many traders spend a lot of time (years, decades? ) "creating" a system that at the end of the road will not work with any size worth trading.
For example, many "price action" traders gravitate towards the CL, when it is obvious that their method/system/whatsisname they are developing (most of them very discretionary) will completely break down if they attempt to trade it with as few as 5 contracts, just on stop slippage for example.
Just one of the many issues with getting bigger. Generally it is much easier getting in than getting out, and nobody likes to talk about getting out. Getting in?. Sure: Sell 2,000 ES at the market, you'll get a fill within 3-4 ticks in RTH. Now try getting out of that, without losing an eye...
I use 90% of my cash for position trading and long-term investments in equities and 10% for futures. The biggest daily loss in the futures market that I will take is 2%. I have a circuit breaker set at that amount. I also trade for clients through linked accounts and the same 2% applies to their accounts. Since I occasionally use wide stops I need to have that 2% to protect me should a major news event occur. I have technology backups in case my primary internet goes down or I lose power to the house. I have a battery backup that will last for 20 min's, which is plenty of time to get flat.
Quote from Zr1Trader:
I asked in an earlier thread and no body responded. Ill ask again here since I am interested .
Anyone can answer I guess but I'd like the answer from a successful futures trader.
What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have in your futures account? What percentage is in long term diversivied investments?
for trading futures, Assume you like to only risk .05% per trade as your max risk limit per trade. Do you risk .05% of your liquid net worth on a trade or .05% of your futures account on a trade?
personally I have 10% of net worth in futures account and 90% in long term diversified. Interested in what other futures traders do?
This is assuming you have a tested reliable methodology for trading futures on a shorter term TF (intraday)
As for the answer to the OP's question. Less than a year. Possible, but very unlikely.
So true! I've seen a lot of guys blow up with 10+ years of experience. They generally get back in the game after a short while to shake off the experience. I've been lucky. I've never blown a futures account but I've definitely blown a few equity accounts.
Quote from Laissez Faire:
Losing streaks are very real, even for experienced traders.
Not necessarily. I have an algo running that gives buy and sell signals for the CL but I have slippage programmed into the code. It's a very robust app but far from perfect. The thing with algo trading is you can't develop a black box and expect it to work indefinitely. You have to continuously make modifications and improvements to the program to adapt to changing market conditions.
Quote from eudaemon:
Many traders spend a lot of time (years, decades? ) "creating" a system that at the end of the road will not work with any size worth trading.
For example, many "price action" traders gravitate towards the CL, when it is obvious that their method/system/whatsisname they are developing (most of them very discretionary) will completely break down if they attempt to trade it with as few as 5 contracts, just on stop slippage for example.
Just one of the many issues with getting bigger. Generally it is much easier getting in than getting out, and nobody likes to talk about getting out. Getting in?. Sure: Sell 2,000 ES at the market, you'll get a fill within 3-4 ticks in RTH. Now try getting out of that, without losing an eye...
Re: Re: Re: Starting with 1 ES contract...
I agree. Getting in and out of the CL requires different tactics than say, the ES. If you're trading the QM it's even worse. Getting in and out of a 5 lot on the CL isn't difficult. If you are going long you need to buy on down ticks, which will get you a good, fast fill. I typically exit with limits but I keep the trade out button handy if the market doesn't trade through that limit. Just gotta eat the slippage on a situation like that -- cost of doing business.
Quote from Blotto:
If you're that rotton at execution to have difficulties getting your 5 lot done without getting raped in CL, you really have no business trading.
I'm actually running an experiment much like this. In a year, I'll let you know how far I've gotten. The main difference is that I'm not day-trading, defined as being flat at the end of each RTH session. When I get into a trade, I never know how long I will hold it. I've got a very specific definition of a "trend" and I hold it as long as the "trend" remains in my favor. My average winner is about 7 ES points and the range is from a single tick up to 25 points. An average day is close to 4 points total. Sometimes I hold for a couple of hours, sometimes overnight. Sometimes I get stopped out with a profit and then re-enter because the "trend" resumes. If the ES is trading, I'm watching for trades. One of the main problems I will face as my size gets larger is that I sometimes will have a position, long or short, and a trade in the other direction will trigger and in my strategy that does not call for an exit of the pre-existing position, but an adding of a position in the opposite direction. In the ES, this means buying the non-active contract, which means terrible liquidity, especially overnight. That could end up being a limiting factor. That said, with a 7 point average winner, I can afford to give up a few ticks in order to size my position to what I want. This doesn't happen that often, though.
Agree that it is not for a new trader. That said, when you start with a small number of contracts, you are quickly either bust or playing with house money. Real money, of course, but house money. But, you've got to look at it as a marathon, not a sprint. You can't say "I'm going to add X number of contracts a day/week/month/whatever", you have to take what the market gives you. And, you have to understand the "why?" of your strategy, so that when a drawdown happens, you don't panic. I have a metaphysical certitude in my strategy, even though, like all strategies, it is subject to probabilities and the reason is because for each decision node within my strategy I understand EXACTLY why the decision I will be making is the optimal decision to make with the information available at the time of the decision. I'm at the point where breaking a rule is more frightening to me than losing money on a given trade. You know how they say you should trade as if you were being paid on how well you follow your rules, rather than your trade results? That's me.
Also, fortunately, I have other income that is quite sufficient for me to live on, so I can try this with very little overall lifestyle risk.
My 2 cents. At 1300, 6k might be enough for your system. But at ES1600, you might need to widen your stops.
ES800 you might be able to trade same system with less than 6k.
Quote from oldtime:
My 2 cents. At 1300, 6k might be enough for your system. But at ES1600, you might need to widen your stops.
ES800 you might be able to trade same system with less than 6k.
ok, but I was kind of thinking by the time he goes from 1 to 333, ES might be at 13,000
how long is a piece of string?
there are so many factors that affect the outcome, its like asking, how long will it take me to be president.
Quote from elitist-trader:
how long is a piece of string?
there are so many factors that affect the outcome, its like asking, how long will it take me to be president.
Quote from eudaemon:
You'll never be president, and austinp will never be trader.
Quote from eudaemon:
You'll never be president, and austinp will never be trader.
Quote from oldtime:
ok, but I was kind of thinking by the time he goes from 1 to 333, ES might be at 13,000
Quote from Blotto:
I've never properly traded more than 80 contracts, so I have absolutely no idea how I would react. I've not got myself truly comfortable above 40. This is more to do with my risk management. I think if I had three million in a trading account, I'd have no problem with 200 lots. Of course this is still far too much risk.
I did my first 100 lot within my first 18 months of live trading.
Quote from atticus:
You're entirely FOS.
Quote from austinp:
Yes... I belly-dance for a living, and all those ES "market calls" you salivate over in this site have real money trades behind them
Quote from austinp:
Risk, there are reasons why EliteTrader.com has slipped from #1 traffic ranking for message boards a couple of years ago to no higher than 4th place right now and pretty much tied with a competitor for that.
Quality of posts by most active posters is the beginning and end to that conversation. One need look no further than this thread or most others, tally up the most active posters, assess their quality of contribution, and there you have it.
Quote from eudaemon:
I'm glad that we are finally on the same page, Mr Vendor.
To me this has been an interesting conversation to follow because I am actually following this path. For the last year I have been learning the game and trading a live account. i have now got my style of trading exactly where I want it, i am total confident with my trading platform, entries and exits, and risk.
My method (trading the ESMini from 8.30am to 11am), with a 9 tick stop and 16 tick profit target is consistently showing a 58 per cent win ratio, and ROI of a steady 15 per cent every 15 days.
My plan from August 1st is to trade 1 contract for every $2400.00 in my account, so I will start with the account at $2400.00 on August 1st.
It would be great to see if there are some other people here who could do this same experiment so we could all keep posting genuine trades here to see if it really is possible for a day trader to actually become successful. This would be really helpful to all traders who want to see someone successful in this scam ridden business.
Anyone else game for this
__________________
Rules are for fools, and so are indicators sold on websites
Quote from austinp:
We can be on the same page every day... go ahead and post your daily screenshot from real-time trades in any thread of your choice, and I'll join you there.
Until that time, only one of us two has ever posted real-trade results in this website.
And you ain't the one
Quote from atticus:
Agreed. Anyone boasting about turning 100 lots after eighteen months is either selling something or had the $ to do so from day one. I don't think he could paper-trade a 100-lot.
Blotto -- produce Friday's run from a real-$ account showing a 40-lot fill and I will paypal you $1,000.
Quote from Peternam:
Anyone can cherry pick, post his profitable daily results on this website, you Mr Vendor post your results from THIS YEAR on YOUR website because I can't find anything but a hypothetical disclaimer on your website...Mr. Fake.
Quote from rallycar:
To me this has been an interesting conversation to follow because I am actually following this path. For the last year I have been learning the game and trading a live account. i have now got my style of trading exactly where I want it, i am total confident with my trading platform, entries and exits, and risk.
My method (trading the ESMini from 8.30am to 11am), with a 9 tick stop and 16 tick profit target is consistently showing a 58 per cent win ratio, and ROI of a steady 15 per cent every 15 days.
My plan from August 1st is to trade 1 contract for every $2400.00 in my account, so I will start with the account at $2400.00 on August 1st.
It would be great to see if there are some other people here who could do this same experiment so we could all keep posting genuine trades here to see if it really is possible for a day trader to actually become successful. This would be really helpful to all traders who want to see someone successful in this scam ridden business.
Anyone else game for this
__________________
Trade Less
Quote from Blotto:
Also, why would anyone trade at 20:1 leverage without a very precise methodology which allows one to extract net points daily?
Quote from Rashid_G.:
There is a question here that probably has no specific answer: How does your 58% W/L ratio mathematically influence your per trade risk? .. (in your case, 4.7%). You could run into 4 losing trades first out of 10 before 6 in a row.. or... 8 losing trades (which your risk may not allow) before 12 wins in a row. The real question may be how many consecutive losing trades is possible..?
__________________
Rules are for fools, and so are indicators sold on websites
Where is Blotto and his blotter ?.
Quote from eudaemon:
Where is Blotto and his blotter ?.
Quote from eudaemon:
Where is Blotto and his blotter ?.
Second day to greatness!.
Took profits too soon on the second trade. Bad.
Shooting for 3 points per week minimum to accomplish plan. May trade mornings only, will add afternoons if necessary...
Third day to greatness was almost a disaster. Two internet disconnects cost me one catastrophic loss of 4 points, and a lost trade at least of another 3 points. Had to resort to working late and doubling position size to 200 SPY to recover. Trades aren't representative, but I'll keep the net gain of 4.3 points. Obviously I will need some serious redundancy before I get to 333 contracts...
Oh yeah: D'Alembert... word of the day...
Lucky first week to greatness ends with a +$123 day, trading 200 SPY size, scalper's volatility has increased. A paradise or a hell hole. I will update weekly from now on. I need internet connection redundancy.
Where is Blotto?.
Quote from eudaemon:
Lucky first week to greatness ends with a +$123 day, trading 200 SPY size, scalper's volatility has increased. A paradise or a hell hole. I will update weekly from now on. I need internet connection redundancy.
Where is Blotto?.
Quote from atticus:
wow, amazink! You can scalp in bangkok even with the power outages! blotto is jackson222
Quote from atticus:
wow, amazink! You can scalp in bangkok even with the power outages! blotto is jackson222
Quote from atticus:
I don't think he could paper-trade a 100-lot.
Quote from atticus:
blotto is jackson222
Quote from Zr1Trader:
These two names have different IP's so they aren't the same person. Just to clear up any confusion...
Quote from Zr1Trader:
These two names have different IP's so they aren't the same person. Just to clear up any confusion...
Quote from jackson222:
Where do you get off checking IP address for posters and making your finding public?
Quote from Zr1Trader:
Where do I get off?
I don't understand your question. Are you talking about my "me time" ?
I can see everyone's IP on the site. Was just clearing up confusion.
Have a great day ! Sounds like you already are though
Quote from jackson222:
Where is your right to produce any information as to someone's IP address, or not at the behest of members here?
What is your motive? What confusion?
Quote from Zr1Trader:
Because in our Conduct Rules
"5) Registration is limited to one username per member"
So I need to check for clowns making two usernames with one IP and Ammo had suspicion of such a case so I looked into it.
I never posted anyone's IP address , I merely said these two people are not the same person with different usernames.
Quote from jackson222:
Don't post my private info or check my IP against another and make it public or private just because somebody asks or has a "suspicion".
Quote from jackson222:
Don't post my private info or check my IP against another and make it public or private just because somebody asks or has a "suspicion".
After a weekend of self-indulgence and reading nonsense, and wasting time...A happy thought occurred: What if I could make 3 or 4 points on 100 contracts?. I could do 1 trade and be done, for the day?. Or the week?. The month really as my expenses aren't that much, even after the self-indulgence. I could fire all my friends and family, clients, employees, etc, and become truly free...The happy thoughts continued till this morning when the market opened.
The issue is now how to get to 100 contracts at the fastest possible speed. Not what, if, when, but HOW?.
I'm sure my friends and detractors at ET will provide the answer!.
I am attempting a similar thing, posting weekly results in my journal. Trading ES and FX, so not ES alone, but nevertheless idea is similar.
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