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Posted by oilfxpro on 05-17-11 01:31 PM:

Day trading is losers game

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital.

A few internet marketeers are selling motoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220707

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220676

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218977

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220513

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218160

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 05-17-11 01:37 PM:

Is this a question or a statement?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Fireplace on 05-17-11 01:38 PM:

Humans are amazing.....when they don't succeed at something they believe it must be because it's impossible. LOL

Posted by cornix on 05-17-11 01:51 PM:

Quote from Fireplace:

Humans are amazing.....when they don't succeed at something they believe it must be because it's impossible. LOL

Natural defensive activity of the human mind... To avoid the pain of admitting true cause of their failure people start to seek for outside reasons.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by NY_HOOD on 05-17-11 01:58 PM:

FIREPLACE
you are more than welcome to be a day laborer for my construction company when you decide "daytrading was'nt for you".

Posted by emg on 05-17-11 02:00 PM:

Now that my work is done on passing along negative about trading due to 99% of ET members are extreme successful traders and own luxury tangible goods, i will begin posting positive.

__________________
More Than 90% of Small Traders Lose. THEY JUST LOSE!!!!!

Posted by Fireplace on 05-17-11 02:01 PM:

Bro, I've been doing this since 1998, thanks for the offer but you wouldn't be able to pay me enough!

PS It's a wonder why you are still here....haven't you moved on?

Quote from NY_HOOD:

FIREPLACE
you are more than welcome to be a day laborer for my construction company when you decide "daytrading was'nt for you".

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-17-11 02:04 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Natural defensive activity of the human mind... To avoid the pain of admitting true cause of their failure people start to seek for outside reasons.

The facts are

ay trader does 30 trades a day , in a zero sum game , and pays 2 pip spread 30 times a day.60 pips a day in spreads is lost.

Swing trader trades 3 times a day and pays 6 pips spread.

Net loss is 54 pips for day trader.The answer is here.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-17-11 02:06 PM:

Quote from emg:

Now that my work is done on passing along negative about trading due to 99% of ET members are extreme successful traders and own luxury tangible goods, i will begin posting positive.

You owe me my fees first.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 05-17-11 02:10 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

The facts are ay trader does 30 trades a day , in a zero sum game , and pays 2 pip spread 30 times a day.60 pips a day in spreads is lost.

Swing trader trades 3 times a day and pays 6 pips spread.

Net loss is 54 pips for day trader.The answer is here.

1. 2 pips spread is ridiculous. Boot your broker and choose another one.

2. It is not a loss, it is an expense... Yes, it is significantly higher, but so is the profit. Many scalpers, including HFT algos pay absolutely huge amount in commissions, but nevertheless end up well in the green.

In this business, it is not critical how much you lose or pay to your broker. How much you make or lose after you subtract your expenses and losses from your wining trades profit, that is critical.

This relates to both trading losses and expenses, such as spread, commissions etc.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 05-17-11 02:14 PM:

BTW, trading 3 times a day is considered day trading by most people, not swing trading.

While trading 30 times a day is rather scalping.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by TradePilotPro1 on 05-17-11 02:19 PM:

It is so funny how all the traders here are so shocked that trading is hard !

They read one book or take a week of traning and wonder why
they are not making over 100K a year ?

You could not even know how to landscape in the time they put into it however they expect to make 3 times what they have earned before with 10% of the time invested.

The Market just is, it will move whatever what it wants, if you are on the right side then you will make money and GUESS WHAT
it does not care if you are in or out !

The problem is YOU not the market.

The ones that keep crying booo hoo Mr. Market is mean
you have to stop being such a Jackwagon and suck it up and learn how to trade.

Happy Trading,

Joe

Posted by jokepie on 05-17-11 02:40 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

So they would say .... to keep u out.

__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-17-11 02:45 PM:

Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from jokepie:

So they would say .... to keep u out.

I ged it , brokers want to keep out the 95% club , out.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by jokepie on 05-17-11 03:14 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

I ged it , brokers want to keep out the 95% club , out.

HOW is it a zero sum game.
Lets say i have appl at 330 today tomorrow it opens at 335 ...how is that zero sum for all the owners of the stock ???

Posted by intradaybill on 05-17-11 03:15 PM:

Some facts I have realized in my 20 years of trading:

(1) Day trading is competing directly with market makers. Guess who is going to lose at the end? That does not mean that some people will not make it but the probability of not being you is very high.

(2) It takes 5 years to get a MSc in Electrical Engineering, for example, and it costs about 100K in tuition and expenses, for going to a State University. The cost for going to a University like MIT is possibly 200K or more. Yet, some people think they can learn the science of trading with no money down, just by looking at a screen. Can you learn how to build an airplane by just looking at it? Ask this question to yourself.

(3) Increase your timeframe a bit and forget about chasing pips or ticks. The money is made in position trading.

(4) Education and tools are necessary. Trading is a very expensive investment. If you do not have at least 5K to invest in tools and 5K more in education do not even start.

(5) if you have no money to invest but you still want to learn how to make money trading, ask a master to help you for a couple of years by accepting to work free for him or her. This is how people were learning the secrets of martial arts in Japan for years. Call the office of Mr. Soros and ask them to work there for free for a year, make coffee, running to the deli, cleaning the offices of traders, calling cars for them, arranging their meetings for exchange of letting you watch what they do 1 -2 hours a day.

...or lose all you money to those that do whatever it takes.

Posted by intradaybill on 05-17-11 03:17 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from jokepie:

HOW is it a zero sum game.
Lets say i have appl at 330 today tomorrow it opens at 335 ...how is that zero sum for all the owners of the stock ???

It is when you close the position. If you make a profit, it has to come out from someone else's account. Bernanke will not print money for you. Only for big banks. For you is zero-sum.

Posted by ElectricSavant on 05-17-11 03:28 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

You want negative...ok here it is...

Even the popular gamblers can lose...DayTrading Forex is more of a slow-bleed long death. Liver cancer....painful stomach cancer...you know like that...

If you are to make it in Forex you gotta be senile and forgetful. If you remember the pain that you have endured then nothing in your trading career can equal it out when you become successful.

Life is pain.

In Forex nothing works for a long time if you have an edge. You always must be on the hunt.

Then you have the global players that get very greedy and without regulation they just close their dealership and disappear when they get enough money from their clients. Heck they were just a post box in the islands somewhere anyways...

Here in the USA the regulated brokers are thieves too...when they can get away with it...they are just as bad as the global players, instead they steal under the guise of regulation.

Yep...It's all a con job and even in today's depression the playing field has not dried up.

By the way... I am a loser, but just now I am profitable and trying to take what I can as fast as I can. But again, nothing will ever, ever repay me for the pain. so if you wanna' be a DayTrader...just forget it newbie....and for the others...well Good Trading to you and may your life be fruitful after your trading session is over.

ElectricDon'tGiveItAllBackSavant

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital.

A few internet marketeers are selling motoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220707

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220676

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218977

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220513

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218160

Posted by Neenisti on 05-17-11 03:29 PM:

Quote from Fireplace:

Bro, I've been doing this since 1998, thanks for the offer but you wouldn't be able to pay me enough!

PS It's a wonder why you are still here....haven't you moved on?

I guess we are in the 5% crowd that have succeeded and didn't give up.
Crappy day in Crude oil and I can still say I have made more than the the highest paid construction worker in NY for a days work.
No offense Hood, patience is a virtue. Some people weren't meant to trade.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-17-11 03:37 PM:

Quote from Fireplace:

Humans are amazing.....when they don't succeed at something they believe it must be because it's impossible. LOL

I am working on getting blood out of a stone , it is not impossible.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by ElectricSavant on 05-17-11 03:39 PM:

Pick up the stone to your left after hitting you in the head..there may be some blood left ☺

ES

Quote from oilfxpro:

I am working on getting blood out of a stone , it is not impossible.

Posted by Fireplace on 05-17-11 03:39 PM:

What is up with this site lately? So many negative nellies. You try and encourage people by relating your own experiences of struggle and then success and all they want to do is slam you.

IF YOU GUYS DON'T LIKE TRADING, OR DON'T BELIEVE IT'S POSSIBLE, THEN GO FIND A NEW WEBSITE THAT SUITS YOUR NEW GOALS.

Simple.

Quote from Neenisti:

I guess we are in the 5% crowd that have succeeded and didn't give up.
Crappy day in Crude oil and I can still say I have made more than the the highest paid construction worker in NY for a days work.
No offense Hood, patience is a virtue. Some people weren't meant to trade.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-17-11 03:42 PM:

I never said it was not possible to make money out of trading , just agreed with the sentiment on many threads , the odds are stacked against day trading.

Swing and position trading is different , there are many profitable strategies , without the usual crap like stops etc.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-17-11 03:44 PM:

Quote from ElectricSavant:

Pick up the stone to your left after hitting you in the head..there may be some blood left ☺

ES

It is all possible to get blood out of a stone then.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by ElectricSavant on 05-17-11 03:44 PM:

lol...you gotta earn it...too much denial from the 95%.....

ElectricTheRainbowIsJustAroundTheCornerSavant

Posted by trickshot on 05-17-11 04:03 PM:

Quote from intradaybill:

Some facts I have realized in my 20 years of trading:

(1) Day trading is competing directly with market makers. Guess who is going to lose at the end? That does not mean that some people will not make it but the probability of not being you is very high.

Yes thats true, this is why I have always believed that its not possible to daytrade and make money in very efficient markets (which will inevitably be infested with bots/HFTs/etc). However this does not mean that every market/instrument is efficient, there will always be loopholes and opportunities, I arb'ed the crap out of such a "loophole" for over 4 years before too many market participants found out about it, but I already made a bundle from it so I am moving on to look for other opportunities in other markets/instruments.

Imo betting on direction for any instrument intraday is suicide, no egde will compensate any trader for taking intraday directional risk because the market is random (and more so in the very short run!), the odds of any trader winning is much less than 50% after accounting for trading cost.

Posted by cornix on 05-17-11 04:03 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

I never said it was not possible to make money out of trading , just agreed with the sentiment on many threads , the odds are stacked against day trading.

Swing and position trading is different , there are many profitable strategies , without the usual crap like stops etc.

It is not about odds. It is about professional abilities to do certain kind of things...

And I am very concerned about your words of strategies "without crap like stops"... It is very dangerous to think longer-term trades do not need stops... They probably need them more than day trades do, because you keep them overnight.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by mikeenday on 05-17-11 04:05 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

number 1 enemy in trading is to overtrade, which leads to take less quality setup and easy to abandon money management.

based on my own experience, the biggest winners usually takes about 2 weeks to 3 months.

trade less and honor stops ($100 per $5000 trade). Don't move stops, rather focus on getting the entry correct (by reading bid/ask).

trading is very simple, I realized it after losing more than 100k and 6 years frustration.

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital.

A few internet marketeers are selling motoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220707

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220676

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218977

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220513

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218160

Posted by survivortrader on 05-17-11 04:13 PM:

sounds like the post of somebody who lost a lot of money. if trading isn't for you, trading isn't for you, but there's a lot of good opportunities out there and you shouldn't act like day-trading is impossible. trading = zero sum game? day trading = negative sum game? come on man. You're just pissed off because you don't have the discipline to come up with your own system when you were looking for 100% returns.

Posted by Fireplace on 05-17-11 04:23 PM:

The odds are only stacked against people who don't have the time and/or the discipline to devote to learning how to trade. Once you learn even a basic approach and can show that you have the discipline to trade it properly, you can then build upon that basic system and have great success.

It does take time, and probably more time than most think it will when they enter the trading arena.

Quote from oilfxpro:

I never said it was not possible to make money out of trading , just agreed with the sentiment on many threads , the odds are stacked against day trading.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-17-11 04:26 PM:

Quote from trickshot:

Yes thats true, this is why I have always believed that its not possible to daytrade and make money in very efficient markets (which will inevitably be infested with bots/HFTs/etc). However this does not mean that every market/instrument is efficient, there will always be loopholes and opportunities, I arb'ed the crap out of such a "loophole" for over 4 years before too many market participants found out about it, but I already made a bundle from it so I am moving on to look for other opportunities in other markets/instruments.

Imo betting on direction for any instrument intraday is suicide, no egde will compensate any trader for taking intraday directional risk because the market is random (and more so in the very short run!), the odds of any trader winning is much less than 50% after accounting for trading cost.

This post sounds more believable about intra day trading in random markets.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by tradewiz50 on 05-17-11 04:27 PM:

So many haters.

Posted by Fireplace on 05-17-11 04:30 PM:

Markets aren't random, they only appear random when you don't understand what you are seeing

Quote from oilfxpro:

This post sounds more believable about intra day trading in random markets.

Posted by brownsfan019 on 05-17-11 04:42 PM:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=6&pagenumber=1

This dude can't make up his mind if trading is as easy as 2 moving averages or if it sucks.

Posted by SnakeEYE on 05-17-11 04:50 PM:

porno..

p.s.site..

Posted by jokepie on 05-17-11 05:06 PM:

Quote from Fireplace:

Markets aren't random, they only appear random when you don't understand what you are seeing

Posted by NY_HOOD on 05-17-11 06:13 PM:

i need to have "FirePlace" come down and unload some bricks and pick up some supplies.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-18-11 09:32 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

It is not about odds. It is about professional abilities to do certain kind of things...

And I am very concerned about your words of strategies "without crap like stops"... It is very dangerous to think longer-term trades do not need stops... They probably need them more than day trades do, because you keep them overnight.

People like Jim Rogers do not have stops.The proper strategies on fx do not require stops , that is real fx trading, none of you understand it.

Most of the big money is made using these strategies , and they worked for last 40 years.Real fx trading isn't scalping.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Neenisti on 05-18-11 09:34 PM:

Quote from jokepie:

+1

Ditto

Posted by Fireplace on 05-18-11 09:35 PM:

LOL, I already told you, you couldn't afford me!

Good to see you are happy and have moved on.

Quote from NY_HOOD:

i need to have "FirePlace" come down and unload some bricks and pick up some supplies.

Posted by NoDoji on 05-18-11 09:45 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

It is not about odds. It is about professional abilities to do certain kind of things...

And I am very concerned about your words of strategies "without crap like stops"... It is very dangerous to think longer-term trades do not need stops... They probably need them more than day trades do, because you keep them overnight.

I can confirm that CF can trade, can trade with "impossible" stops, and can trade profitably day after day and seems to have been doing so for at least 3 years, as he's one of the first traders I ever met back in the days of ET's chat room. I had the privilege of having him in my Skype room last year, where I was left shaking my head at his ability to trade Euro futures with a 6-tick stop loss, quite profitably. I learned a lot from him. Once you learn what makes the market tick, as a day trader you will win in a "Spectacular Fashion." You'll just win!

Posted by Visaria on 05-18-11 10:45 PM:

Quote from NoDoji:

Once you learn what makes the market tick, as a day trader you will win in a "Spectacular Fashion." You'll just win!

Posted by DHOHHI on 05-18-11 10:58 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital.

You obviously didn't major in an optimization based area. And you clearly don't understand game theory if you think trading is a zero sum game.

I'm glad it's a losers game --- I've been doing it full time for over 15 years.

If you blew out and failed don't assume everyone else also did.

Posted by Neenisti on 05-18-11 10:59 PM:

Quote from NoDoji:

Once you learn what makes the market tick, as a day trader you will win in a "Spectacular Fashion." You'll just win!

Nicely stated!!

Posted by wrbtrader on 05-19-11 12:04 AM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros, Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital...[/url]

You posted the below quote in your other thread called Day trading difficulties. Simply, am I confused or you confused.

Let me repeat something I said to you in your other thread...most traders are not suitable for day trading which is why most will fail. It's one of the toughest games in town and only a few can do it profitably.

In addition, you yourself admitted you were not suitable for day trading and you specifically name several reasons involving YOU (trader psychology issues) as a trader. My reply to you again is to move on and continue with your swing trading because your going back-n-forth with day trading is starting to seem somewhat strange. Surely you understand it's not your game and that you should spend your time & energy devoting yourself to swing trading or position trading...don't you think ?

Quote from oilfxpro:

05-16-11 04:25 AM

There is a load more money to be made from day trading than swing trading , trading the wind and noise will have the most problems and failures. Higher risk will always give higher rewards.

It is also possible to make as much from swing and position trading , by trading only a few times a week on a select few instruments. On longer t/f swing/position ,the spread and other advantages improve the odds in favour of the trader.

There are certain daily time frame currency strategies producing very good risk reward ratios, in excess of 7 .Compared to this day /frequent trading has r/r ratios of less than 2

__________________
If you're reading my profile...do not contact me nor reply to me if you're a troll, pretender, liar or believe nobody is profitable in trading.

Posted by failed_trad3r on 05-19-11 12:07 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from jokepie:

HOW is it a zero sum game.
Lets say i have appl at 330 today tomorrow it opens at 335 ...how is that zero sum for all the owners of the stock ???

it has to do with the wealth effect of price discovery. When price goes up or down, wealth fluctuates greatly. But not always has money changed hands. It is imaginary.

while daytrading is a zero-sum game, longer term buy and hold or position trading knows an upwards bias. Just look at the DOW charts of 100 years. This is a true edge and has partly to do with technology innovation, and with currency debasement. Buy and hold works. with daytrading however the money comes from other market participants.

Posted by Rashid_G. on 05-19-11 02:17 AM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital.

A few internet marketeers are selling motoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220707

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220676

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218977

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220513

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218160

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=88949

__________________
Trade Less

Posted by cornix on 05-19-11 03:18 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

People like Jim Rogers do not have stops.The proper strategies on fx do not require stops , that is real fx trading, none of you understand it.

Most of the big money is made using these strategies , and they worked for last 40 years.Real fx trading isn't scalping.

1. Jim Rogers does not swing trade, he invests according to his fundamental views. So he is not even a trader in traditional sense of the word.

2. I am more than sure, that he and other successful long term players (probably with rare and lucky exceptions) still use some strategies to limit their risk, probably more solid that stop orders, such as options or hedge in another market.

3. If you are happy with those proper FX strategies you know, why do you bother to talk about day trading at all? What is the purpose of many day trading related threads you recently started @ ET?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 05-19-11 03:25 AM:

Quote from NoDoji:

I can confirm that CF can trade, can trade with "impossible" stops, and can trade profitably day after day and seems to have been doing so for at least 3 years, as he's one of the first traders I ever met back in the days of ET's chat room. I had the privilege of having him in my Skype room last year, where I was left shaking my head at his ability to trade Euro futures with a 6-tick stop loss, quite profitably. I learned a lot from him. Once you learn what makes the market tick, as a day trader you will win in a "Spectacular Fashion." You'll just win!

Thank you NoD. I must say, that you are doing extremely well too, often reading your posts I see your understanding of the markets and the trading business is truly stellar...

P. S. People who helped me in my early years and even some of my current partners are fine with 4-5 ticks on Euro most of the time, so I rather suck with my wide stops.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by stockstalkerv3 on 05-19-11 04:12 AM:

Listen up ppl! Day trading is a losing game b/c you're trading the wrong instrument.

Take your common everyday non-blue chip stock that lures in maybe 1-2 investor/trader a day. They got a big problem convicing those interested to chip in if they don't manufature social proof (buying and selling from their various accounts to create the appearance of volume). Could you imagine how their stock would look if there were only 1-2 real trades per day? If they don't create 100 fake trades, nobody's going buy.

So, you the trader pitch in, thinking you'll make a killing. At whatever price you bought, the computer that manufactures fake volume "knows". So, say you buy in at 10.00 and hoping to get out at 10.50. You think that computer's gonna mark the price up, just so you can get out at 10.50? Wrong!

What the computer will do is mark down the price by 10% or more in the hope of squeezing you out and making 10% off of you. After you sell, the computer will then mark the price up 5-10% from where you bought (this would be 10.50-11.00), hoping either you're stupid enough to buy back in thinking the price will go up higher, or some other sucker comes along and takes the shares at 11.00 (that the computer bought from you at 9.00 after the 10% squeeze out).

Then, the cycle of (trader) abuse repeats itself, which is why you'll see random squiggly lines on the daily chart.

But, if it is a sector play that is just about to become hot, the computer will do whatever it takes to squeeze you out, but -- after each squeeze, the price is made to climb higher and higher in sych with the sector.

So, you can see, day trading is definitely a losing game when the ratio of false:real volume is very high. But, if you're trading something like CL, where fakes:real trades are low, the computer loses its edge --- which means that if you're skilled enough, you can beat the computer at games like CL and make money!

Posted by RobertG on 05-19-11 04:32 AM:

"95%" is such dirty statistic. You have those who guess randomly, those who attended a webinar/seminar and jumped in because trading is "cool", those who see ET and try to do do half-A&$, etc.
How many of the 95% truly dedicated themselves to learn, explore and make intelligent mistakes that could be learned from?
How many of the 95% can digest that there is no "income" from the markets..."I just want 2 points" still cracks me up...and the ups and downs of equity that paralyze traders.

My account:
Jan Win
Feb Win
March Loss LARGE
April Loss small
May New Equity High...so far...all because of shorting silver..could be dumb luck.

When I write this I am a bit mad at myself at how I traded before..pissed tons of cash...but this was not trading.

I ask myself if I am a trader and I say...not yet. I am more active but I just went back to making projects with clients because I don't want to be desperate to make money. if I am, the market will eat me alive. A real trader understands it.

If you are a beginner and you can trade 2 months being negative or more and still continue..you could be ok...if not, try underwater basket weaving which is a lot more relaxing.

RG

Posted by dealmaker on 05-19-11 05:07 AM:

Trading is not rocket science, after trading a while we all learn the set-ups, how to read charts, technicals, fundamentals etc.. The difference between a successful trader and a not so successful ( as long as the time has been put in to learn the game ) is the mental approach.
So guys/gals stop complaining you are losing because of you, not because trading is impossible. Trading is not for everyone, its esoteric and still there are many out there making plenty of $.

Posted by Spearhead on 05-19-11 06:57 AM:

Quote from stockstalkerv3:

So, you the trader pitch in, thinking you'll make a killing. At whatever price you bought, the computer that manufactures fake volume "knows". So, say you buy in at 10.00 and hoping to get out at 10.50. You think that computer's gonna mark the price up, just so you can get out at 10.50? Wrong!

What the computer will do is mark down the price by 10% or more in the hope of squeezing you out and making 10% off of you. After you sell, the computer will then mark the price up 5-10% from where you bought (this would be 10.50-11.00), hoping either you're stupid enough to buy back in thinking the price will go up higher, or some other sucker comes along and takes the shares at 11.00 (that the computer bought from you at 9.00 after the 10% squeeze out).

Which is why stops are generally not a good idea and averaging up or down in a losing position is a better way to go.

Posted by Spearhead on 05-19-11 07:22 AM:

I tend to agree with the main points of the OP. Most traders do fail. If anyone got a real peek at performance of individual accounts of retail traders, it would probably discourage people from ever trading. Since this is the case, those numbers are closely guarded and never released to the public. I think research that was done in the past indicated 90% losers, 1-2% consistent and substantial winners, 8-9% winners but not substantial and probably just treading water. If I remember correctly, out of the 90% of losers, roughly 10% were catastrophic losers who basically blow out their entire account.

These aren't encouraging statistics for aspiring traders. Although I consider myself part of the 1-2% consistent winners, whenever anyone asks me about trading as a profession rather than a hobby, I vehemently discourage it. I suppose out of those 1-2%, everyone has their own "secret" for how they're doing it, but I suspect it is not just a matter of time, effort, and psychology. People on this board seem to think you can read some books, pay for training, spend the necessary time, and you will somehow get good enough to profit from the market. I just don't believe this to be true.

The previous poster mentioned something about finding the right arbitrage / market inefficiencies. On the scale of difficulty, I would venture that it's on the order of coming up with a new, undiscovered physics theory. I'd also guess that most people who spend the next 10 years studying the market will still not be profitable daytraders. It might go from 90% failure rate to 70% or so, but I just can't imagine the majority would be profitable.

How many people do you personally know are successful daytraders? I don't know any besides myself, and I know plenty that tried to trade actively and lost enough to not attempt it again.

Posted by Spearhead on 05-19-11 07:37 AM:

Quote from dealmaker:

Trading is not rocket science, after trading a while we all learn the set-ups, how to read charts, technicals, fundamentals etc.. The difference between a successful trader and a not so successful ( as long as the time has been put in to learn the game ) is the mental approach.
So guys/gals stop complaining you are losing because of you, not because trading is impossible. Trading is not for everyone, its esoteric and still there are many out there making plenty of $.

Don't mean to rag on you but statements like this really IRK me and make me think you are clueless.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-19-11 08:01 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

3. If you are happy with those proper FX strategies you know, why do you bother to talk about day trading at all? What is the purpose of many day trading related threads you recently started @ ET? [/B]

Only two threads on day trading were started by me.The second thread was to learn from a different perspective.The purpose is to learn a bit more and understand .

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 05-19-11 08:41 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Only two threads on day trading were started by me.The second thread was to learn from a different perspective.The purpose is to learn a bit more and understand .

If you want to learn and understand, why do you start your threads with a statement, rather than question?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 05-19-11 08:47 AM:

Quote from Spearhead:

How many people do you personally know are successful daytraders? I don't know any besides myself, and I know plenty that tried to trade actively and lost enough to not attempt it again.

At least a few people I know well for several years and talk with them literally every day. One of them is NoD, who's evolution from a newbie to a great trader I witnessed myself and can definitely say her success is result of her deliberate practice and willing to learn.

Some of others have experience of a few decades and are not just successful, but are true market masters, making millions from their trading. And what they do is start ALL their trades as day trades, but they have enough skills and experience to see when to hold and when to fold, so some of their day trades turn into huge long-term winners with the risk-reward of like 1:100, because initial risk on every entry was as small as it usually is for a scalper.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-19-11 11:22 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

If you want to learn and understand, why do you start your threads with a statement, rather than question?

Do you find scalping easier than day swing trading?Is it easier to see direction on 1 min time frame than 15 min?

Here is some scalping trades for today , 45 pips profit with 8 pip stop ,and target of 8+ . Spreads were 2 pips plus , with cheaper spreads of 1 pip from 66 trades today but lower spreads could bring in 66 more pips.I felt comfortable trading this tight stop scalping.

A few poor entries were made , and a few exits were missed.I see this net profitable performance as repeatable every day .I learnt the use of tight stops.What is your criteria for tight stop entry?Is it trading only in a highly trending market?

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cvds16 on 05-19-11 11:58 AM:

what most people don't get: it's all about context ... that's the reason they can't read their chart, you should have multiple charts of different tf's up to get some idea of how it works. People simplify this so much a robot could do this ! That won't work of course, this is human interaction with all of its subtleties. Most of these subtleties get lost on beginning traders leading them to say: 'this can't be done' ... the truth is they didn't give it a decent try, they just thought they did ...
It's like when I was doing options, I told a few people and said them 'it's money for free' ... but they had to read a few rather thick books with a lot of math equasions in them ... they didn't want to do that cause that would take to much time and effort, meanwhile they kept plodding along and losing money ... Most people just don't get sophisticated enough at this, yes, it's simple, but not that simple ... there are nuances ... if you don't know how to read those, yes then trading is impossible ...

Posted by failed_trad3r on 05-19-11 12:12 PM:

Quote from Spearhead:

I tend to agree with the main points of the OP. Most traders do fail. If anyone got a real peek at performance of individual accounts of retail traders, it would probably discourage people from ever trading. Since this is the case, those numbers are closely guarded and never released to the public. I think research that was done in the past indicated 90% losers, 1-2% consistent and substantial winners, 8-9% winners but not substantial and probably just treading water. If I remember correctly, out of the 90% of losers, roughly 10% were catastrophic losers who basically blow out their entire account.

These aren't encouraging statistics for aspiring traders. Although I consider myself part of the 1-2% consistent winners, whenever anyone asks me about trading as a profession rather than a hobby, I vehemently discourage it. I suppose out of those 1-2%, everyone has their own "secret" for how they're doing it, but I suspect it is not just a matter of time, effort, and psychology. People on this board seem to think you can read some books, pay for training, spend the necessary time, and you will somehow get good enough to profit from the market. I just don't believe this to be true.

The previous poster mentioned something about finding the right arbitrage / market inefficiencies. On the scale of difficulty, I would venture that it's on the order of coming up with a new, undiscovered physics theory. I'd also guess that most people who spend the next 10 years studying the market will still not be profitable daytraders. It might go from 90% failure rate to 70% or so, but I just can't imagine the majority would be profitable.

How many people do you personally know are successful daytraders? I don't know any besides myself, and I know plenty that tried to trade actively and lost enough to not attempt it again.

the reason is daytrading is a zero-sum game. There will ALWAYS be losers.

In a closed system where all daytraders trade against eachother and each spends 10.000 hours to learn daytrading, still you will have losers. Thats why the "business" of daytrading is crap argument and the 10.000 screen time is also a crap argument. It is also the reason discretionary daytrading doesn't work and the reason automated systems stop working sometimes.

Your systems has to be better than others, aka for example in poker if your bluff is better than the others you can consistently make money, but the other will learn to create better bluffs, then you need to step up your game. Is is a constant struggle for edges.

Posted by cvds16 on 05-19-11 12:14 PM:

business is a constant strugle for edges too ... and for that matter so is life (if you don't think so, read up on Darwin)

Posted by cornix on 05-19-11 12:54 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Do you find scalping easier than day swing trading?Is it easier to see direction on 1 min time frame than 15 min?

Here is some scalping trades for today , 45 pips profit with 8 pip stop ,and target of 8+ . Spreads were 2 pips plus , with cheaper spreads of 1 pip from 66 trades today but lower spreads could bring in 66 more pips.I felt comfortable trading this tight stop scalping.

A few poor entries were made , and a few exits were missed.I see this net profitable performance as repeatable every day .I learnt the use of tight stops.What is your criteria for tight stop entry?Is it trading only in a highly trending market?

1. I see no difference in reading 1 minute, 15 minute, 1h or 1 month chart (provided, market has enough volatility). All the same principles, just different fractals.

2. Criteria for tight stop entries is to enter when price moving against you by more than your stop amount proves you wrong and there is no reason to stay in the trade anymore. This is much more often reversals, than trends.

3. Cannot download your attachment, cause you use spaces in your file names and ET screws them up.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by failed_trad3r on 05-19-11 12:57 PM:

Quote from cvds16:

business is a constant strugle for edges too ... and for that matter so is life (if you don't think so, read up on Darwin)

except in business your edges are not always zero-sum, it way easier that way. you can create a whole new market out of nothing.

Posted by cornix on 05-19-11 12:59 PM:

Quote from cvds16:

business is a constant strugle for edges too ... and for that matter so is life (if you don't think so, read up on Darwin)

Exactly! There are many relatively efficient markets besides contracts traded @ exchanges.

For example:

Opening a new restaurant in a city full of restaurants is equally if not more hard as becoming a good trader and also involves fight for the "edge" (to make guests start visiting your restaurant instead of visiting your competitors).

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by wrbtrader on 05-19-11 01:07 PM:

oilfxpro,

You've been making statements that day trading or any other type of trading (except for swing trading) does not work. Heck, you even started this thread that "Day trading is a losers game".

Yet, every once in awhile amongst your negative message posts about day trading...you make a few messages about a particular trading day of day trading profits or making suggestions about ways to beat the market via day trading (e.g. martingale type position sizing).

Simply, you're all over the map...very difficult to understand your opinions via the contradictions that sometimes seem like a "lack of sincerity" to learn about day trading except for the messages that deals with "trader psychology". It's almost as if you're day trading in the background and you don't want us to know about it and once in awhile you have a profitable day trading day (real money or simulator) and that's when you make those rare positive day trading commentary that it "is" or "can be" profitable.

Quote from oilfxpro:

04-26-11 05:57 AM

I am not going to continue with day trading or explore any methods related to day trading. It is not for me...

Therefore, I'm just going to assume from this day forward that you're scalping or day trading regardless if such is via discretionary or an automated/mechanical trading system...regardless if it's every trading day or a few times each month.

Also, you shouldn't attach .rar or .zip files here at ET because most will not open such files for obvious reasons. Thus, I highly recommend you attach images or charts (.gif, .jpg, .png, .doc) to get more ET members to read your attachments. I say this because I did a survey here at ET and elsewhere via posting images or charts in different formats. The .rar and .zip files are least likely to be downloaded by traders along with having the most complaints that it's not viewable.

Mark

Quote from wrbtrader:

04-26-11 05:23 AM

Hi oilfxpro,

You continue answering your own questions that you're currently not suitable for manual day trading (also known as discretionary day trading).

Simply, you know what's profitable for you (automation day trading and automation swing trading). Yet, you remain fixated on discretionary day trading that doesn't work for you. It seems logical to me to spend time & energy on something that works instead of on something that so far has not work considering you're in a very unique situation via having other options. In comparison, most losing discretionary day traders do not have a profitable automation day trading or automation swing trading system like you do.

Further, the #2, #3, #5 and #10 from your above list are very problematic. There such a problem that any trader I meet that mentions such about themselves...

Don't open another chart, don't take another trade and go get professional psychological help prior to returning to day trading (seriously).

Also, most traders sabotage their own trading before realizing what they've done. You seem to be coming to grips with what you're doing.

******
Further, it will be interesting to see if you're addictive to day trading via continuing exploring it with your day trading discussions and chart examples of particular types of intraday price actions as a discretionary trader (no automation) while knowing you're currently not suitable for it and knowing you have a profitable automation trading system involving day trading and swing trading.
******

Mark

__________________
If you're reading my profile...do not contact me nor reply to me if you're a troll, pretender, liar or believe nobody is profitable in trading.

Posted by Fireplace on 05-19-11 01:28 PM:

Excellent!

Quote from cvds16:

Most people just don't get sophisticated enough at this, yes, it's simple, but not that simple ... there are nuances ... if you don't know how to read those, yes then trading is impossible ...

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-19-11 01:44 PM:

Mark

I went back on simulator to change natural instincts on trading.I am trying to see if I can remove all the negative traits from my trading before going live again.

I am also preparing for the swing trading on oil and fx.I have free time on my hands.

This is on trial.If I go on 1 min charts with tight stops and do a hundred trades a day,getting in and out of trades frequently , I find myself in the comfort zone.This fast in and out within minutes style of trading suits my style.If you do 200 trades daily , your problems disappear because you change sides at every turn of the trend line.If you do enough of them , you have an edge because your eyes can see more good opportunities to trade , whereas if you limit your trades to 2 to 3 , your potential is limited.

I traded on simulator for a whole week many months ago , trading 200 times a day .The results were an astonishing 20 % a week.The method could not be implemented on live accounts , this was because it was discretionary based on trading instincts.I tried to apply rules to the method and it failed.Now I found a few rules that can be applied to the method.

Your opinion is welcome as always.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Visaria on 05-19-11 02:10 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

The results were an astonishing 20 % a week.The method could not be implemented on live accounts , this was because it was discretionary based on trading instincts.

Can you expand on why you could not implement this method into live trading? Was it the emotions of trading with real money came into play?

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-19-11 03:36 PM:

Quote from Visaria:

Can you expand on why you could not implement this method into live trading? Was it the emotions of trading with real money came into play?

The simulator worked very well.So I go in with real money and tried to be careful and implement it slowly.I started with half the method trying to be extra cautious.This type of trading is very fast and does not require a slow , cautious approach to trade.The frame of mind to implement the method was not correct, hence the failure.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Neenisti on 05-19-11 03:47 PM:

I found that trying to trade more that 10 times a day per chart, for me anyway, was suicide. 200 is ridiculous. I only day trade for about 4 hours a day tops and 2 or 3 trades per chart in that time frame is comfortable. A lot of my charts average 1 or 2 trades a day maximum.

I've watched individuals try to trade a chart like playing a video game and it drives me nuts. It is absolutely no wonder they loose their shirts.

Posted by Fireplace on 05-19-11 04:10 PM:

I'm with you on this, 1-2 trade setups on average per time frame per day. I have a very specific sequence that I follow and it occurs across all time frames but it's not trading on any one time frame all day long. Toggling between several times frames, I've found, works wonders.

200 trades a day though....I couldnt handle it

Quote from Neenisti:

I found that trying to trade more that 10 times a day per chart, for me anyway, was suicide. 200 is ridiculous. I only day trade for about 4 hours a day tops and 2 or 3 trades per chart in that time frame is comfortable. A lot of my charts average 1 or 2 trades a day maximum.

I've watched individuals try to trade a chart like playing a video game and it drives me nuts. It is absolutely no wonder they loose their shirts.

Posted by Spearhead on 05-19-11 04:23 PM:

Quote from failed_trad3r:

the reason is daytrading is a zero-sum game. There will ALWAYS be losers.

In a closed system where all daytraders trade against eachother and each spends 10.000 hours to learn daytrading, still you will have losers. Thats why the "business" of daytrading is crap argument and the 10.000 screen time is also a crap argument. It is also the reason discretionary daytrading doesn't work and the reason automated systems stop working sometimes.

Your systems has to be better than others, aka for example in poker if your bluff is better than the others you can consistently make money, but the other will learn to create better bluffs, then you need to step up your game. Is is a constant struggle for edges.

Trading is a closed system, but retail daytrading is not. You're competing against traders at banks, hedge funds, market makers. Basically I think the odds are incredibly weighted against individual traders, especially given the enormous profits that the bank traders extract every day.

I do think it's hard for "normal" people to recognize just how stacked the odds are, so it's hard to fault people for trying their luck at it. Daytrading also has a low barrier to entry so you get a lot of people with the get-rich-quick mentality, and a lot of snake-oil salesmen who sell them the dreams. Realize that this board in particular is sponsored by a lot of these snake-oil salesmen, so keep that in mind if you're actually forming opinions based on what you read here.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-19-11 05:37 PM:

Quote from Spearhead:

Trading is a closed system, but retail daytrading is not. You're competing against traders at banks, hedge funds, market makers. Basically I think the odds are incredibly weighted against individual traders, especially given the enormous profits that the bank traders extract every day.

I do think it's hard for "normal" people to recognize just how stacked the odds are, so it's hard to fault people for trying their luck at it. Daytrading also has a low barrier to entry so you get a lot of people with the get-rich-quick mentality, and a lot of snake-oil salesmen who sell them the dreams. Realize that this board in particular is sponsored by a lot of these snake-oil salesmen, so keep that in mind if you're actually forming opinions based on what you read here.

+1

Many of these sites are set up to brainwash new traders into over trading , and generating commissions for brokers.Some of these sites actively promote over trading ideas.Some of these sites are ibs (introducing broker) and receive huge commission .The bots are programmed for rebuttals on propaganda which would affect the site's interests.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by wrbtrader on 05-19-11 06:04 PM:

You can see ET sponsor list at the bottom of the website. Most are brokers, prop firms or software/data providers. In addition, they usually do not participate in discussions here at ET.

Thus, the only thing you see from them are banner ads or new product announcements. In contrast, the discussions about their products are ET members themselves.

Mark

__________________
If you're reading my profile...do not contact me nor reply to me if you're a troll, pretender, liar or believe nobody is profitable in trading.

Posted by Dalmation on 05-19-11 06:48 PM:

Quote from wrbtrader:

You can see ET sponsor list at the bottom of the website. Most are brokers, prop firms or software/data providers. In addition, they usually do not participate in discussions here at ET.

Thus, the only thing you see from them are banner ads or new product announcements. In contrast, the discussions about their products are ET members themselves.

Mark

Huh? Sponsors participate in discussions all the time with aliases and directly

Are you a sponsor, mentor or
Author?

Posted by stock777 on 05-19-11 07:08 PM:

how come there are no womentors?

__________________
"Those that know ain't saying, and those saying don't know." - E. A. Neumann

A bear since 1958 and proud of it.

Posted by Neenisti on 05-19-11 08:10 PM:

Quote from stock777:

how come there are no womentors?

There are www.womentor.com

Just like there are consistently profitable day traders. One more thing you were oblivious to.

Posted by Neenisti on 05-19-11 08:16 PM:

Quote from Spearhead:

Trading is a closed system, but retail daytrading is not. You're competing against traders at banks, hedge funds, market makers. Basically I think the odds are incredibly weighted against individual traders, especially given the enormous profits that the bank traders extract every day.

I do think it's hard for "normal" people to recognize just how stacked the odds are, so it's hard to fault people for trying their luck at it. Daytrading also has a low barrier to entry so you get a lot of people with the get-rich-quick mentality, and a lot of snake-oil salesmen who sell them the dreams. Realize that this board in particular is sponsored by a lot of these snake-oil salesmen, so keep that in mind if you're actually forming opinions based on what you read here.

And what do you for a living?

Posted by stock777 on 05-19-11 08:23 PM:

Quote from Neenisti:

There are www.womentor.com

Just like there are consistently profitable day traders. One more thing you were oblivious to.

I know there are many profitable daytraders, and I know you are not one of them.

Dare ya to post even a SINGLE live trade.

__________________
"Those that know ain't saying, and those saying don't know." - E. A. Neumann

A bear since 1958 and proud of it.

Posted by Neenisti on 05-19-11 08:24 PM:

Quote from Dalmation:

Huh? Sponsors participate in discussions all the time with aliases and directly

Are you a sponsor, mentor or
Author?

Have you heard from Naina yet, Mrs. Dalmation?

Posted by Neenisti on 05-19-11 08:33 PM:

Quote from stock777:

I know there are many profitable daytraders, and I know you are not one of them.

Dare ya to post even a SINGLE live trade.

I'll post lots if you pay me just for the profitable ones. If I'm such a scab that shouldn't cost you much, right?

Posted by t0pd0g on 05-19-11 08:53 PM:

I disagree that the stock market is a zero sum game....where every time someone makes money someone has to lose. For example, when LNKD opened at $81 today and I bought there and sold at $82, who lost?

Every trader I talked to made money going long LNKD today!

Another example...A stock closes at $25 one day with no shorts outstanding and opens the next day at $30. Who lost money?

Options and futures zero sum...stocks not.

Posted by Buckythebadger on 05-19-11 09:19 PM:

You are Clueless!!!

You need a model(and a clue) to consistently make money! I have a very conservative model that has made me money every month for the past 8 years. Granted I need to tweak it once in a while when things change, but to think that you can't make money day trading is retarded!

Posted by stock777 on 05-19-11 10:41 PM:

Quote from Neenisti:

I'll post lots if you pay me just for the profitable ones. If I'm such a scab that shouldn't cost you much, right?

That's what I thought. All talk. No sheep.

__________________
"Those that know ain't saying, and those saying don't know." - E. A. Neumann

A bear since 1958 and proud of it.

Posted by stock777 on 05-19-11 10:43 PM:

Quote from t0pd0g:

I disagree that the stock market is a zero sum game....where every time someone makes money someone has to lose. For example, when LNKD opened at $81 today and I bought there and sold at $82, who lost?

Every trader I talked to made money going long LNKD today!

Another example...A stock closes at $25 one day with no shorts outstanding and opens the next day at $30. Who lost money?

Options and futures zero sum...stocks not.

if you only made $1 on that gamble, you lost. Next time you lose $5

Not to mention the $ you left on the table for no particular reason

__________________
"Those that know ain't saying, and those saying don't know." - E. A. Neumann

A bear since 1958 and proud of it.

Posted by BSAM on 05-19-11 10:49 PM:

Why do the people who claim one can't make money trading spend so much time on ET trying to prove it to others?

Why don't they spend all that time learning to trade?

Too simple, huh?

Posted by Fireplace on 05-19-11 10:50 PM:

LOL, guess so

Quote from BSAM:

Why do the people who claim one can't make money trading spend so much time on ET trying to prove it to others?

Why don't they spend all that time learning to trade?

Too simple, huh?

Posted by Neenisti on 05-19-11 10:52 PM:

Quote from stock777:

That's what I thought. All talk. No sheep.

I'll post lots of trades and a majority of them will make money but why should you benefit from them?

Posted by Neenisti on 05-19-11 10:55 PM:

Quote from BSAM:

Why do the people who claim one can't make money trading spend so much time on ET trying to prove it to others?

Why don't they spend all that time learning to trade?

Too simple, huh?

You make wayyyy too much sense. +1

One explanation is that the naysayers are failed traders and it just waxes their butts to think someone succeeded where they failed miserably.

Posted by BSAM on 05-19-11 10:57 PM:

Quote from Neenisti:

You make wayyyy too much sense. +1

One explanation is that the naysayers are failed traders and it just waxes their butts to think someone succeeded where they failed miserably.

Neen....It doesn't matter what anybody on ET says, thinks, posts, or does. Just do what you do. Nobody here is going to pay your bills. If they could, they would steal your strategy in a heartbeat.

Posted by stock777 on 05-19-11 11:04 PM:

lol, no one is fooled.

dude, all I asked was to post ONE trade, for a big swinging dick like you, that should be a no brainer. Now you claim you are worried about being followed?

Who here would be so dumb?

I've posted many trades here that were huge winners. All you have to do is post a 20 cent winner in anything.

__________________
"Those that know ain't saying, and those saying don't know." - E. A. Neumann

A bear since 1958 and proud of it.

Posted by Dalmation on 05-19-11 11:08 PM:

Quote from BSAM:

Neen....It doesn't matter what anybody on ET says, thinks, posts, or does. Just do what you do. Nobody here is going to pay your bills. If they could, they would steal your strategy in a heartbeat.

Steal your strategy? What a joke and a tremendous cop out by the big mouths on elite.

Steve Cohen himself could post his strategy and no one would be capable of following it.

How weak can one be?

Posted by Dalmation on 05-19-11 11:12 PM:

Quote from stock777:

lol, no one is fooled.

dude, all I asked was to post ONE trade, for a big swinging dick like you, that should be a no brainer. Now you claim you are worried about being followed?

Who here would be so dumb?

I've posted many trades here that were huge winners. All you have to do is post a 20 cent winner in anything.

Good point captain.

Neenesti is all hat and no cattle. He or she is afraid to post any trades since everyone will quickly learn those who are most arrogant are the dumbest in this sport.

Posted by Neenisti on 05-19-11 11:12 PM:

Quote from stock777:

lol, no one is fooled.

dude, all I asked was to post ONE trade, for a big swinging dick like you, that should be a no brainer. Now you claim you are worried about being followed?

Who here would be so dumb?

I've posted many trades here that were huge winners. All you have to do is post a 20 cent winner in anything.

OK, here's a bone.
Sell September Euro FX with a 1.4000 target.
That one is just for you.

Posted by Neenisti on 05-19-11 11:19 PM:

Quote from Dalmation:

Good point captain.

Neenesti is all hat and no cattle. He or she is afraid to post any trades since everyone will quickly learn those who are most arrogant are the dumbest in this sport.

You think this is a sport Mrs. Dalmation?

I trade for a living, what do you do to pay your bills?

Posted by BSAM on 05-19-11 11:34 PM:

Quote from Neenisti:

You think this is a sport Mrs. Dalmation?

I trade for a living, what do you do to pay your bills?

Neen, jealousy is a bitch. Let 'em say whatever they want. Don't let people rattle your chain.

Your non-reaction lets them know that they are "barking" up the wrong tree.

Posted by Neenisti on 05-19-11 11:43 PM:

Quote from BSAM:

Neen, jealousy is a bitch. Let 'em say whatever they want. Don't let people rattle your chain.

Your non-reaction lets them know that they are "barking" up the wrong tree.

Agreed!

Posted by Red_Ink_inc on 05-20-11 12:37 AM:

Sitting on a ferry this afternoon with 1hr+ to kill. So I actually sat here and read this entire thread. Not sure if I should laugh or cry.

5 new names added to the ignore list. To the bitter individuals added to the list. Thank you for the money you gave to me in the day trading arena.

Easy to tell who has a clue and who doesn't. To the guys and gal on this thread who fight in the financial trenches every day. I salute you.

Posted by BLUEDAY000 on 05-20-11 12:52 AM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

WTF is wrong with this FORUM ?

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital.

A few internet marketeers are selling motoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220707

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220676

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218977

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220513

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218160

Posted by stock777 on 05-20-11 03:41 AM:

Quote from Neenisti:

OK, here's a bone.
Sell September Euro FX with a 1.4000 target.
That one is just for you.

So you're short Euro at 142.60 or so.

Is there a stop, or are you ready to lose infinity?

I was really hoping for something that might not take weeks to play out, like my call for Linkedin to go <100 today (@ 102) . Within 60 seconds it was 95. Too bad you couldn't get short, but if you were long, it saved you some coin.

__________________
"Those that know ain't saying, and those saying don't know." - E. A. Neumann

A bear since 1958 and proud of it.

Posted by cornix on 05-20-11 04:08 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

The simulator worked very well.So I go in with real money and tried to be careful and implement it slowly.I started with half the method trying to be extra cautious.This type of trading is very fast and does not require a slow , cautious approach to trade.The frame of mind to implement the method was not correct, hence the failure.

If it "worked" on simulator but stopped "working" live, and this fact was not related to live fills vs. sim. fills, does it mean the only problem you have with this system is your emotions?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Neenisti on 05-20-11 01:20 PM:

Quote from stock777:

So you're short Euro at 142.60 or so.

Is there a stop, or are you ready to lose infinity?

I was really hoping for something that might not take weeks to play out, like my call for Linkedin to go <100 today (@ 102) . Within 60 seconds it was 95. Too bad you couldn't get short, but if you were long, it saved you some coin.

I see you aren't familiar with the currency futures.

Entry 1.4260
Stop 1.4285
Target 1.4000

Will exit before target if signal received. I will tightly watch this trade due to a potential short term bottom setting in. Will monitor it remotely today. Out enjoying the sunshine for a change.

On 10 contracts, profit is currently a bit over $10K with price currently at 1.4187

I don't trade stocks. It isn't I can't but I have a preference for large profits on small margins. That is one of the ways I manage risk. This trade won't take weeks to play out but for individuals like you with zero patience, a day or two must seem like years.

Posted by Visaria on 05-20-11 01:57 PM:

Quote from Neenisti:

I found that trying to trade more that 10 times a day per chart, for me anyway, was suicide. 200 is ridiculous. I only day trade for about 4 hours a day tops and 2 or 3 trades per chart in that time frame is comfortable. A lot of my charts average 1 or 2 trades a day maximum.

I've watched individuals try to trade a chart like playing a video game and it drives me nuts. It is absolutely no wonder they loose their shirts.

(Relating to CL) I traded 50 roundtrips a couple of days ago. I was down 100 pips at one point but ended up +155 at the end of the day. I was so exhausted that next day i entered one trade in the morning, chilled the whole day and exited in the afternoon for +280 pips

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-20-11 03:33 PM:

Quote from Visaria:

(Relating to CL) I traded 50 roundtrips a couple of days ago. I was down 100 pips at one point but ended up +155 at the end of the day. I was so exhausted that next day i entered one trade in the morning, chilled the whole day and exited in the afternoon for +280 pips

Thats the difference between good swing trading and day trading, you only need a few good trades without burning out.

If you spend all your energies looking for a few good trades , you wasted it on those wind gush trading.There were three to four good trades on simple systems on oil this week.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Neenisti on 05-20-11 10:27 PM:

Quote from Visaria:

(Relating to CL) I traded 50 roundtrips a couple of days ago. I was down 100 pips at one point but ended up +155 at the end of the day. I was so exhausted that next day i entered one trade in the morning, chilled the whole day and exited in the afternoon for +280 pips

Nice!
I know, I like Crude for intraday trading just can't take that many trades. I like the few trades I take each day.
Then on the other hand I like taking the whole day off and still cleaning up. That Sept. Euro trade was nice for a short swing trade. I'm moving my stop to 1.2187 on half of my position. See how it reopens Sunday.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-21-11 07:50 AM:

Quote from Neenisti:

Nice!
I know, I like Crude for intraday trading just can't take that many trades. I like the few trades I take each day.
Then on the other hand I like taking the whole day off and still cleaning up. That Sept. Euro trade was nice for a short swing trade. I'm moving my stop to 1.2187 on half of my position. See how it reopens Sunday.

Good trade.

What was your criteria for entry?

These people using 10 pip stops on oil have been brainwashed , their stops get hit frequently , they have to do 100 trades after being taken out so many times out of good trades.Your stop should be where the market does not want to go,and it should be there to protect you.I use 100 pip stops on oil , they work fine and there are only a couple of trades a day.

I saw a few traders on tight stops of 8 to 10 pips on forums , these traders are no more ,the remaining ones have increased their stops to 20 pips on fx.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oraclewizard77 on 05-21-11 08:17 AM:

Seriously, just because you need a 100 tick stop, does not mean there are those of us that have better systems than you, and can trade with small stops.

Its called an edge. It means I can predict the future, so that sometimes, I can get into a trade and not even take 1 tick of draw down.

When I talked to NoDoji on skype, we found that we took some of the same trades.

Trust me, she is also a way better trader than you, and per our pm's, she does not need a 100 tick stop either.

Also, its called a tick, not a pip. And, as far as I know both NoDoji and I still post on these forums.

By the way, I had a few of my systems put on tracking sites that record every trade. 1 of them was the number 1 Forex system for over a year out of 3,000 systsems, and 1 of them is an stock / option system that is in the top 10 systems of that site.

Quote from oilfxpro:

Good trade.

What was your criteria for entry?

These people using 10 pip stops on oil have been brainwashed , their stops get hit frequently , they have to do 100 trades after being taken out so many times out of good trades.Your stop should be where the market does not want to go,and it should be there to protect you.I use 100 pip stops on oil , they work fine and there are only a couple of trades a day.

I saw a few traders on tight stops of 8 to 10 pips on forums , these traders are no more ,the remaining ones have increased their stops to 20 pips on fx.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-21-11 08:26 AM:

Quote from oraclewizard77:

Seriously, just because you need a 100 tick stop, does not mean there are those of us that have better systems than you, and can trade with small stops.

Its called an edge. It means I can predict the future, so that sometimes, I can get into a trade and not even take 1 tick of draw down.

When I talked to NoDoji on skype, we found that we took some of the same trades.

Trust me, she is also a way better trader than you, and per our pm's, she does not need a 100 tick stop either.

Also, its called a tick, not a pip. And, as far as I know both NoDoji and I still post on these forums.

10 pip stops get hit more frequently, 20 pip get hit less frequently and higher and higher stops get less frequently.Tight stops are not for everybody , unless u are a very good trader .Tight stops probably won't work for others.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Ghost of Cutten on 05-21-11 09:01 AM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital.

A few internet marketeers are selling motoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

Daytraders don't become super rich for one simple reason - scalability.

Profitable daytrading is still possible, despite the competition from algos - for example as a personal experiment I ran $5k up to over $100k in 2010 daytrading part-time over about 7 months, with minimal drawdowns.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-21-11 09:20 PM:

Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Daytraders don't become super rich for one simple reason - scalability.

Profitable daytrading is still possible, despite the competition from algos - for example as a personal experiment I ran $5k up to over $100k in 2010 daytrading part-time over about 7 months, with minimal drawdowns.

Scalability is not a problem in fx.4 trillion $ market daily.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-21-11 09:28 PM:

Most are of the opinion it is a zero sum game.

A day trader has to find greater fools every day , during his day trading activities, to pay him more than what he paid for the currencies or instrument.These other traders paying him more money are bank traders and professional traders , who are much smarter than the day trader.

The day trader has to predict the direction to make money , he can't predict his own fate.

Who pays the day trader for his profit? How many fools are there greater than the day trader?

After costs , it may be safe to say , day trading fx is a negative sum game.Those who do not agree ,please post audited reports of day trading financial results for last 10 years.Justify your argument with evidence.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by ElecEquity on 05-21-11 09:47 PM:

Why entertain these same redundant thread titles if you're a profitable daytrader? These kinds of people will never relent. Just keep making money and move on.

Posted by flyingdutchmen on 05-21-11 10:05 PM:

Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from BLUEDAY000:

WTF is wrong with this FORUM ?

amazing isnt it

the market is random. it is impossible to trade. daytrading is a losers game. trading is a zero sum game. there is no such thing as an edge, its all a myth. my system has an profitfactor of 5.

you only have one post to read now on ET

[/tread]

Posted by oraclewizard77 on 05-22-11 11:26 PM:

Yes, you are right about that. The problem is some traders not you, may go for a 5 tick profit with at 25 tick stop.

Since they are not currently advertising, this is the model of Alex from puretick. Yes, they have many days where they make money and lose nothing. However, 1 bad day, can destroy a newbie account. Plus instead of honoring requests to cancel subscriptions they keep charging the credit card until or if you fraud close it. I am surprised no one has put them in jail for this.

Quote from oilfxpro:

10 pip stops get hit more frequently, 20 pip get hit less frequently and higher and higher stops get less frequently.Tight stops are not for everybody , unless u are a very good trader .Tight stops probably won't work for others.

Posted by stock777 on 05-23-11 12:23 AM:

Quote from Neenisti:

I see you aren't familiar with the currency futures.

Entry 1.4260
Stop 1.4285
Target 1.4000

Will exit before target if signal received. I will tightly watch this trade due to a potential short term bottom setting in. Will monitor it remotely today. Out enjoying the sunshine for a change.

On 10 contracts, profit is currently a bit over $10K with price currently at 1.4187

I don't trade stocks. It isn't I can't but I have a preference for large profits on small margins. That is one of the ways I manage risk. This trade won't take weeks to play out but for individuals like you with zero patience, a day or two must seem like years.

" see you aren't familiar with the currency futures." = makes no sense at all.

Good call, but you ruined it by the after the fact size and conveniently 'tight' looking stop . Any reason why you didn't post this critical info on entry?

If nothing else , you proved you can read the paper and divine that a currency under attack on 3 or 4 fronts might be a good short. Better than most here have shown.

PS Oh yeah, help me out here. Why are you trading the illiquid Sept? Seems odd at best.

__________________
"Those that know ain't saying, and those saying don't know." - E. A. Neumann

A bear since 1958 and proud of it.

Posted by Neenisti on 05-23-11 02:56 AM:

Quote from stock777:

" see you aren't familiar with the currency futures." = makes no sense at all.
Good call, but you ruined it by the after the fact size and conveniently 'tight' looking stop . Any reason why you didn't post this critical info on entry?
If nothing else , you proved you can read the paper and divine that a currency under attack on 3 or 4 fronts might be a good short. Better than most here have shown.
PS Oh yeah, help me out here. Why are you trading the illiquid Sept? Seems odd at best.

I stated you were obviously not familiar with currency futures because you listed the price incorrectly.

Regardless of the size, a single contract is still currently worth $2,587.50 per contract.

I entered just prior to my signal triggering so I waited till the morning to set my hard stop. That is what is called "confidence in one's trading plan". I've been doing this for going on 18 years so I think I know what set ups work and which one's don't by now. My initial stop I placed when I entered was 20 points higher at 1.4305.

Sorry, I don't read financial rags. I get the local paper and get the rest of my news from sources. The media makes me sick. I'm strictly a chartist. If the chart isn't set up correctly, I don't mess with it. PERIOD!

Oh, I trade whatever contract month is giving me the best set up and the September Euro FX was the winner. The June contract had some nice intraday shorts of Friday but nothing on a longer term swing chart. I knew I was going to in front of the screens on Friday so I picked a nice one for you that could play out for a few days. I don't think the September contract is illiquid, at least not for what I do. I can trade a 10 lot without a great deal of slippage and you can see the value of that play yourself. You just have to know what you are doing.

Thanks for the back handed compliment. It was more than I expected. You simply offered a challenge and I answered. Some of us that can actually trade don't have a problem with posting trades, others that trade like I do, would never post a trade. To each their own preference.

I could post more but then I get questions and I don't have time to answer them. I learned to trade on my own and with the help of one good friend. I've never attended any seminars, though there are a few worthwhile ones out there and I've never read any "how to" books prior to trading. I've read quite a few after I learned but from a point of reference and comedy only.

Posted by Neenisti on 05-23-11 02:47 PM:

Quote from Neenisti:

I stated you were obviously not familiar with currency futures because you listed the price incorrectly.

Regardless of the size, a single contract is still currently worth $2,587.50 per contract.

I entered just prior to my signal triggering so I waited till the morning to set my hard stop. That is what is called "confidence in one's trading plan". I've been doing this for going on 18 years so I think I know what set ups work and which one's don't by now. My initial stop I placed when I entered was 20 points higher at 1.4305.

Sorry, I don't read financial rags. I get the local paper and get the rest of my news from sources. The media makes me sick. I'm strictly a chartist. If the chart isn't set up correctly, I don't mess with it. PERIOD!

Oh, I trade whatever contract month is giving me the best set up and the September Euro FX was the winner. The June contract had some nice intraday shorts of Friday but nothing on a longer term swing chart. I knew I was going to in front of the screens on Friday so I picked a nice one for you that could play out for a few days. I don't think the September contract is illiquid, at least not for what I do. I can trade a 10 lot without a great deal of slippage and you can see the value of that play yourself. You just have to know what you are doing.

Thanks for the back handed compliment. It was more than I expected. You simply offered a challenge and I answered. Some of us that can actually trade don't have a problem with posting trades, others that trade like I do, would never post a trade. To each their own preference.

I could post more but then I get questions and I don't have time to answer them. I learned to trade on my own and with the help of one good friend. I've never attended any seminars, though there are a few worthwhile ones out there and I've never read any "how to" books prior to trading. I've read quite a few after I learned but from a point of reference and comedy only.

Took entire position off at 1.3960 for an even 300 pips per contract or $3,750. Just a nice over-the-weekend trade.

Posted by flyingiguana on 05-23-11 02:57 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

1. I see no difference in reading 1 minute, 15 minute, 1h or 1 month chart (provided, market has enough volatility). All the same principles, just different fractals.

2. Criteria for tight stop entries is to enter when price moving against you by more than your stop amount proves you wrong and there is no reason to stay in the trade anymore. This is much more often reversals, than trends.

3. Cannot download your attachment, cause you use spaces in your file names and ET screws them up.

there are hige differences on different timeframes. more false signals the smaller the timeframe.

Posted by cornix on 05-23-11 03:06 PM:

Quote from flyingiguana:

there are hige differences on different timeframes. more false signals the smaller the timeframe.

All depends on which signals you observe. For me your statement is not true. Signals on all timeframes have equal relative edge, provided volatility is high enough to give trade room for a movement.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Fireplace on 05-23-11 03:08 PM:

I'm totally with you on this....100% agree

Quote from cornixforex:

All depends on which signals you observe. For me your statement is not true. Signals on all timeframes have equal relative edge, provided volatility is high enough to give trade room for a movement.

Posted by stock777 on 05-23-11 06:01 PM:

Now we know why neenster posts from a private Island, surrounded by half naked native women. or men, not too sure about that ;-)

Imagine how many hits et would get if instead of the usual horseshit, trades like this hit the board with regularity.

I'm holding my breath.

__________________
"Those that know ain't saying, and those saying don't know." - E. A. Neumann

A bear since 1958 and proud of it.

Posted by flyingiguana on 05-24-11 02:24 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

All depends on which signals you observe. For me your statement is not true. Signals on all timeframes have equal relative edge, provided volatility is high enough to give trade room for a movement.

doesn't really matter what signals you use. a 1 min chart will give off a larger number of possible entries than say a daily chart. there's more erratic movement on lower timeframes.

Posted by cornix on 05-24-11 02:33 PM:

Quote from flyingiguana:

doesn't really matter what signals you use. a 1 min chart will give off a larger number of possible entries than say a daily chart. there's more erratic movement on lower timeframes.

Not larger number of signals in relation to sample number of bars, absolutely not. The only problem with low timeframes can be, when volatility is too low and signal has not enough room for a movement to be worth taking it.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by flyingiguana on 05-24-11 04:49 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Not larger number of signals in relation to sample number of bars, absolutely not. The only problem with low timeframes can be, when volatility is too low and signal has not enough room for a movement to be worth taking it.

intraday trading vs longer-term trading results in a much larger pool of potential trades. it really shouldn't even be a debate. even factoring in the amount of bars. the data is smoothed out a lot more on daily and weekly charts.

Posted by cornix on 05-25-11 06:11 AM:

Quote from flyingiguana:

intraday trading vs longer-term trading results in a much larger pool of potential trades. it really shouldn't even be a debate. even factoring in the amount of bars. the data is smoothed out a lot more on daily and weekly charts.

I have nothing against you thinking so.

As for me, relative to the time amount, amount of trades on smaller time-frames is larger indeed. Relative to the sample number of bars, no, if the market is volatile enough, it is not even always possible to distinguish the time-frame if you hide the time and price scale.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-25-11 08:56 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

I have nothing against you thinking so.

As for me, relative to the time amount, amount of trades on smaller time-frames is larger indeed. Relative to the sample number of bars, no, if the market is volatile enough, it is not even always possible to distinguish the time-frame if you hide the time and price scale.

Only a genius can trade gushing wind and see trends and use 5 tick stops.Great signals you have in kung fu trading.

It is more profitable in fast high volatility with 40 t0 50 pip bars on 15 m, and there no clear trendlines or set ups !

and the old addage on genuises applies

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 05-25-11 09:02 AM:

LOL, I am far from thinking I am any close to being genius.

Just some common sense used, fine tuned entry on small time frame within the context of bigger one.

Very simple really, if you invest some of your time into watching a few time frames simultaneously.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by flyingiguana on 05-25-11 10:11 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

I have nothing against you thinking so.

As for me, relative to the time amount, amount of trades on smaller time-frames is larger indeed. Relative to the sample number of bars, no, if the market is volatile enough, it is not even always possible to distinguish the time-frame if you hide the time and price scale.

i'm sure you can find a subset of data where this is true, but over a full year it is not the case. my setups use oscillators on multiple timeframes. i've found the lower timeframes to be almost a random walk a large % of the time (large enough to make the risk/return not worth the effort).

given the choice between trading a 4 hour chart on multiple currency pairs vs trading a lower timeframe on one pair, i'd gladly go with the higher timeframes across multiple pairs for the same # of entries. less bs moves and cleaner charts.

Posted by cornix on 05-25-11 11:03 AM:

Quote from flyingiguana:

i'm sure you can find a subset of data where this is true, but over a full year it is not the case. my setups use oscillators on multiple timeframes. i've found the lower timeframes to be almost a random walk a large % of the time (large enough to make the risk/return not worth the effort).

given the choice between trading a 4 hour chart on multiple currency pairs vs trading a lower timeframe on one pair, i'd gladly go with the higher timeframes across multiple pairs for the same # of entries. less bs moves and cleaner charts.

I am in no way trying to convince you, that your setups are the same on all time frames.

Only saying that my setups on small time frames have about the same hit rate as on large.

Probably that is the reason why I trade basically just EURUSD currency pair using really small time frames for entries.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-25-11 11:24 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

I am in no way trying to convince you, that your setups are the same on all time frames.

Only saying that my setups on small time frames have about the same hit rate as on large.

Probably that is the reason why I trade basically just EURUSD currency pair using really small time frames for entries.

Try some of the noiser pairs like cable

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 05-25-11 12:24 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Try some of the noiser pairs like cable

Why? Euro is the most liquid and volatile enough currency pair and one of the world's best instruments for day trading.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Visaria on 05-25-11 12:27 PM:

There's a hint for you oilfxpro, stop trading noisy instruments!!!!

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-25-11 12:42 PM:

Quote from Visaria:

There's a hint for you oilfxpro, stop trading noisy instruments!!!!

Like oil?

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-25-11 12:44 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Why? Euro is the most liquid and volatile enough currency pair and one of the world's best instruments for day trading.

Thats when you will see the difference on your system between longer time frame and short time frame.If e/usd starts behaving like noisy pairs , the systems can fail.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 05-25-11 12:44 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Like oil?

Ask NoDoji, she trades CL and does it really well without the need for wide stops too.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 05-25-11 12:47 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Thats when you will see the difference on your system between longer time frame and short time frame.If e/usd starts behaving like noisy pairs , the systems can fail.

I watch & trade EURUSD almost every day since 2005... As you probably guess, there were times it behaved very differently during these years, from pathetic chop & creep of 2007 to insane volatility of October 2008.

Also traded a variety of other instruments. Same principles everywhere, provided there is enough liquidity and volatility.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 05-25-11 12:49 PM:

Of course it doesn't mean use 6 ticks stop blindly for every instrument in the world. It should be adjusted and may vary from 2-3 ticks (FESX, FGBL) to 10-15 ticks (CL, HSI).

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Visaria on 05-25-11 12:54 PM:

You have to define "noisy" for yourself. Oil, for me, (atm) is definitely NOT noisy.

Posted by cornix on 05-25-11 01:50 PM:

I like challenges, so checked GBP charts to see if my stuff would work there... Looks even better than Euro due to high volatility of the cable.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-25-11 02:06 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

I like challenges, so checked GBP charts to see if my stuff would work there... Looks even better than Euro due to high volatility of the cable.

Works great on 1,000 a/c trading futures with Dr Stumm's signals room.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 05-25-11 02:44 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Works great on 1,000 a/c trading futures with Dr Stumm's signals room.

Maybe, no idea what Dr Stumm does and what his room is like.

One of ET old-timers and few real traders on this forum, bighog once said he never used other people signals, cause he didn't want to depend on them.

I agree with him.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by flyingiguana on 05-25-11 03:05 PM:

well maybe thats why i dont like trading the eur/usd. i'm mostly into yen carry trade pairs..

my understanding is the larger timeframes have more volatility within the bar but smaller timeframes have more volatility over a certain period of time, ie overbought to oversold level. not to mention a lot more chart noise to boot.

Posted by cornix on 05-25-11 03:48 PM:

Yes, my plays are mostly reversals, and intraday charts provide a lot of them.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-25-11 03:59 PM:

Here is random scalping , it makes money in day trading.Wide stops etc

76 trades , profit 3608/8 hours,running loss 2122

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by eudaemon on 05-25-11 04:07 PM:

Everyone is a daytrader the day they put a trade on or take it off. Therefore everyone is a loser. Except, of course, me.

Posted by Neenisti on 05-25-11 04:34 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Here is random scalping , it makes money in day trading.Wide stops etc

76 trades , profit 3608/8 hours,running loss 2122

Good for you man. I just can't trade that much. I had 9 trades in July Crude yesterday trading a faster chart. I was really happy but considered I had over traded. Today, so far, only 2 and still long.
Again, way to go. Just goes to show that there are many different was to skin the market.

Posted by cvds16 on 05-25-11 06:27 PM:

I know cornixforex now over three years and have been in a private chatroom with him since about 2 years now. I can attest to the fact the he is both a professional and can trade like the best out there tying all kinds of tf's together. He's mainly trading reversal with his six pips stop and stays in the trend when the bigger timeframes show him too. In fact he has been a great inspiration for me. So despite what a lot of people think, this can be done ...

Posted by Neenisti on 05-25-11 07:27 PM:

Quote from Dalmation:

Good point captain.

Neenesti is all hat and no cattle. He or she is afraid to post any trades since everyone will quickly learn those who are most arrogant are the dumbest in this sport.

No comment Mrs. Dalmation . . . I didn't think so.
Easy to see now who is the most arrogant & dumbest now.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-29-11 10:17 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

I like challenges, so checked GBP charts to see if my stuff would work there... Looks even better than Euro due to high volatility of the cable.

Try it , call some live trades in advance and post the results .

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by athlonmank8 on 06-12-11 04:22 PM:

I can vouch for Cornix too. He posted live trades for months in his thread. Excellent trader

Posted by targus on 06-24-11 12:10 AM:

Don't you just love it when everything lines up. Cable long, yeah, 100 pips plus?

Posted by efficiency on 06-24-11 03:39 AM:

Quote from athlonmank8:

I can vouch for Cornix too. He posted live trades for months in his thread. Excellent trader

I must be a modern Rip Van WINK-ull Musta missed sumpthin', somewhere.

Mayan calendar?

Since I rely upon numbers, I would hope it was just a clever way to terminate a blog.

Posted by cornix on 06-24-11 05:36 AM:

Quote from efficiency:

I must be a modern Rip Van WINK-ull Musta missed sumpthin', somewhere.

Mayan calendar?

Since I rely upon numbers, I would hope it was just a clever way to terminate a blog.

I didn't terminate it, just found that blog format is too limited for my ideas and interests.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 06-24-11 05:44 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Try it , call some live trades in advance and post the results .

I do it for a few months already @ StockTwits & Twitter with some explanations in my journals as well as some longer-term plays (mostly options).

Sorry for the delay with an answer, simply was away for some time and didn't day trade actively or checked ET.

For the case you are interested, welcome to follow my calls @ where I said above I do them and ask any questions you want, I'll try to answer them as much as I can.

P. S. And no, I am NOT going to sell any magic indicator, trading system or whatever.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 06-24-11 09:16 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

I do it for a few months already @ StockTwits & Twitter with some explanations in my journals as well as some longer-term plays (mostly options).

Sorry for the delay with an answer, simply was away for some time and didn't day trade actively or checked ET.

For the case you are interested, welcome to follow my calls @ where I said above I do them and ask any questions you want, I'll try to answer them as much as I can.

P. S. And no, I am NOT going to sell any magic indicator, trading system or whatever.

Do any of you who preach tight stop truly understand probabilities?If yes , please explain probabilities of different stop distances getting hit.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 06-24-11 10:07 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Do any of you who preach tight stop truly understand probabilities?If yes , please explain probabilities of different stop distances getting hit.

I called a couple of live trades today and explained one of them, specially upon your request.

As for probabilities, yes of course I know all stats related to my own signals in relation to different stop-loss, profit target et cetera.

And I picked tight stops, because it provides me the highest profit in units of risk as opposed to wider stop.

I must mention though, that sometimes I may use the wider stop, when signal or price action suggests.

Tight stop is not an idol for me to worship, it's just the tool to optimize my trading.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by galvinlee888 on 06-24-11 03:28 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Here is random scalping , it makes money in day trading.Wide stops etc

76 trades , profit 3608/8 hours,running loss 2122

Just curious what happen to your another 11 "open trades", each of them are currently in red and has a wide SL of 800, if they all get hit, you are actually going to loss 8800 ?

Also, how can you have the buy and sell the same instrucment (EUR/USD) in the same time ? Is the broker allow you to do so ?

Posted by DanielSherman7 on 06-24-11 07:21 PM:

You are wrong. There are many succsesful day traders and those people would never reveal how they do it so they would never post stuff on a site like this. They real successful day traders are very very secretive but they are out there. most of them trade situations and news not techinals from sites like briefing and thechopreport. sorry but they are out there

Posted by galvinlee888 on 06-25-11 10:58 PM:

Quote from DanielSherman7:

You are wrong. There are many succsesful day traders and those people would never reveal how they do it so they would never post stuff on a site like this. They real successful day traders are very very secretive but they are out there. most of them trade situations and news not techinals from sites like briefing and thechopreport. sorry but they are out there

So you are one of them ?

Can you link me to your web site address or sell me your system ?

Posted by dealmaker on 06-27-11 10:07 PM:

"Can you link me to your web site address or sell me your system ?"
-Gavinlee888

Obviously you do not understand trading. Unless that was a sarcastic remark.
More people use the same system less effective it becomes and at one point stops working all together. Any system you'll buy will not be effective unless you shell out millions and are the only person with that system.
Besides trading is not about certainities, its about probabilities and any trading system or technique one has developed will stop working at one time because the conditions that made that technique work has changed.
Trading is not a destination, its a journey; you have to continually work on your process, technique and adapt to the continually changing environment.
So instead of buying a system invest in learning trading, especially the psychology. Best of luck!

Posted by cornix on 06-28-11 08:43 AM:

Oilfxpro:

I called 3 trades today as well (didn't trade yesterday), all with initial stops in the range of 6 pips (would require even less heat after the entry), all realtime for a total of +40 pips. Check them out if you are still interested.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 03-10-12 02:04 PM:

May be there are not enough trends in day trading for day traders to make money?How many trends are there in a week?

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 03-10-12 02:32 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

May be there are not enough trends in day trading for day traders to make money?How many trends are there in a week?

Hmm... 2-3 per session on average on 5-min chart. So 10-15 per week.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by wiesman02 on 03-10-12 02:38 PM:

Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from mikeenday:

Don't move stops, rather focus on getting the entry correct (by reading bid/ask).

Actually, in my opinion, you've got it dead wrong. Getting the entry right isn't that important. You can always average down to a certain extent. Its getting the exit correct. Knowing how to read the price action once you're in a position and nagivating it correctly so you come out ahead.

Posted by oilfxpro on 03-10-12 03:01 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Hmm... 2-3 per session on average on 5-min chart. So 10-15 per week.

how many fail by the time you catch them? None of this fib fib fobonnaci stuff!

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 03-10-12 03:04 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

how many fail by the time you catch them? None of this fib fib fobonnaci stuff!

Some fail, some not, there are enough of them to make money, that's all any trader should care about, not about definitions of what is trend or not.

BTW, ranges can be just as (if not even more) profitable.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 03-10-12 03:09 PM:

Quote from galvinlee888:

Just curious what happen to your another 11 "open trades", each of them are currently in red and has a wide SL of 800, if they all get hit, you are actually going to loss 8800 ?

Also, how can you have the buy and sell the same instrucment (EUR/USD) in the same time ? Is the broker allow you to do so ?

There are 6 buys and 5 sells , so net loss is potentially $800 , but before we get to that situation , mental stop will come in.There will be other trades making a profit , before we get there.

The brokers I use allow me to do have buys and sells.

Sorry about delay in response.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 03-10-12 03:34 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Some fail, some not, there are enough of them to make money, that's all any trader should care about, not about definitions of what is trend or not.

BTW, ranges can be just as (if not even more) profitable.

How much is noise or what appears to be a trend , but is infact random movements?You can see trends where none exist.

Even coin tossing can be profitable, if you know how.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 03-10-12 03:36 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

How much is noise or what appears to be a trend , but is infact random movements?You can see trends where none exist.

Even coin tossing can be profitable, if you know how.

Why should I care? Our job is to make money from trading, let economists debate about definitions.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cyoungmark on 03-10-12 03:38 PM:

I don't think you should define your trading before your trading defines you. In other words, don't trade everyday because you want to daytrade, trade everyday if and ONLY if you have setups or whatever your strategy implies. If you define your trading before hand, you will overtrade and lose.

Posted by cornix on 03-10-12 03:39 PM:

Quote from cyoungmark:

I don't think you should define your trading before your trading defines you. In other words, don't trade everyday because you want to daytrade, trade everyday if and ONLY if you have setups or whatever your strategy implies. If you define your trading before hand, you will overtrade and lose.

Exactly. Follow the market, don't think about it too much, we are not paid to think, we are paid to follow the market in the right direction of delta or other greeks (in the case of option fans

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 03-10-12 03:47 PM:

Quote from cyoungmark:

I don't think you should define your trading before your trading defines you. In other words, don't trade everyday because you want to daytrade, trade everyday if and ONLY if you have setups or whatever your strategy implies. If you define your trading before hand, you will overtrade and lose.

If you know how to counter trend trade , u can make money consistently.

Winning soccer teams don't always play the best technical game , often they play defensively in their own half , they play less possession yet come out winning by scoring the vital goals.They only need a few minutes in a game to score the goals. , yet they could play ugly football and come out winning .

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 03-10-12 03:50 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

If you know how to counter trend trade , u can make money consistently.

Winning soccer teams don't always play the best technical game , often they play defensively in their own half , they play less possession yet come out winning by scoring the vital goals.They only need a few minutes in a game to score the goals. , yet they could play ugly football and come out winning .

You should know how to trade with the trend, how to trade counter-trend, how to trade trend reversals, how to trade in absence of the trend.

Trading is Darwinism at it's best. Adapt to survive.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by RCG Trader on 03-10-12 04:34 PM:

Look, two things.

There is trending and there is mean reversion. There is nothing else.

If you countertrend trade, then you are in error. Trying to catch a falling knife, as it were.

You should have a mean reverting strat, and a trend strat. That is all you need.

Posted by thehitman on 03-10-12 04:40 PM:

Define the trend, choose a point at which the trend is violated and call that your stop, buy at a value point and go for a target or trail your stop.

End of story. Send 5% of your new found success in trading to me.

Posted by Eight on 03-10-12 05:06 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

May be there are not enough trends in day trading for day traders to make money?How many trends are there in a week?

idiot

Posted by oilfxpro on 03-11-12 08:15 AM:

Quote from RCG Trader:

Look, two things.

There is trending and there is mean reversion. There is nothing else.

If you countertrend trade, then you are in error. Trying to catch a falling knife, as it were.

You should have a mean reverting strat, and a trend strat. That is all you need.

Counter trend trading has a negative edge , trading with the trend is the most profitable IMHO.There are not enough strong trends in day trading , to day trade profitably by relying solely on trading trends..

The advantage of trading trends is there is the force of the market is with you , the stop losses can be much smaller in trends , the rewards can be much bigger because the price wants to move , and it wants to move in a particular direction.

I did some simple back testing yesterday, to see average number of strong trends weekly .The testing strategy was look at price at midnight , place a buy order 50 pips above and a sell order 50 pips below.On average there were 170 trending trades a year , on euro /usd , tested over 10 years.There might be more than 170 , by adding 1/3 more trades *70 = 23 , therefore potentially there are about 200 trends a year , some of these happen overnight , so day trader may be limited to 120 potential day trending trades .The 1/3 trades are reversals which form into trends.Average 2 strong trending days in a week for day trading IMHO.

I will now work on the mean reversion strategies , I already have some of them.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 03-11-12 09:03 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Counter trend trading has a negative edge , trading with the trend is the most profitable IMHO.There are not enough strong trends in day trading , to day trade profitably by relying solely on trading trends..

The advantage of trading trends is there is the force of the market is with you , the stop losses can be much smaller in trends , the rewards can be much bigger because the price wants to move , and it wants to move in a particular direction.

I did some simple back testing yesterday, to see average number of strong trends weekly .The testing strategy was look at price at midnight , place a buy order 50 pips above and a sell order 50 pips below.On average there were 170 trending trades a year , on euro /usd , tested over 10 years.There might be more than 170 , by adding 1/3 more trades *70 = 23 , therefore potentially there are about 200 trends a year , some of these happen overnight , so day trader may be limited to 120 potential day trending trades .The 1/3 trades are reversals which form into trends.Average 2 strong trending days in a week for day trading IMHO.

I will now work on the mean reversion strategies , I already have some of them.

You seem to reason too rigidly. Who and when has proven that counter trend trading has negative edge? What kind of counter-trend trading is meant? What sort of entries, analysis, position management?

This is serious business, leave superficial rants and theories for losers, please (I assume you are not the one).

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 03-11-12 09:26 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

You seem to reason too rigidly. Who and when has proven that counter trend trading has negative edge? What kind of counter-trend trading is meant? What sort of entries, analysis, position management?

This is serious business, leave superficial rants and theories for losers, please (I assume you are not the one).

Have you ever had posts examined by an independent third party for waffles and beans?

Here are the simple test results with several variations.Most trading against this test would be simple counter trend trading.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 03-11-12 09:30 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Have you ever had posts examined by an independent third party for waffles and beans?

Here are the simple test results with several variations.Most trading against this test would be simple counter trend trading.

I never say "impossible" in any of my posts, if you noticed. Because no matter how I trade, I know different people can be profitable while trading very differently.

Your "test" is just something based on some limited parameters. How can it be a serious proof of whole "counter-trend trading" bunch of methods not having an edge?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 03-11-12 09:43 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

I never say "impossible" in any of my posts, if you noticed. Because no matter how I trade, I know different people can be profitable while trading very differently.

Your "test" is just something based on some limited parameters. How can it be a serious proof of whole "counter-trend trading" bunch of methods not having an edge?

By counter trend trading you are expecting the herd to do what you expect it to do , the herd is strong and pushing against you , your profits are smaller than when trading with the herd.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 03-11-12 09:48 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

By counter trend trading you are expecting the herd to do what you expect it to do , the herd is strong and pushing against you , your profits are smaller than when trading with the herd.

Now that is a different point.

Yes, definitely potential average profit is smaller, when one is picking minor retraces against the main trend, picking the entries, where trend traders take profits etc.

But "smaller average profit per trade" and "negative edge" are two different substances.

Counter-trend scalps can be good, with enough experience they can nicely add up to trader's profits, because she/he would exploit all the "zigzags" of the move and not just sit them out.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by clightmarathon on 03-11-12 10:27 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

May be there are not enough trends in day trading for day traders to make money?How many trends are there in a week?

There are enough trends.

To help you a little:
In eurusd during the last 14 month period there were approximately 190 occasions where a 4 hour period had a range larger than 100pips. About 0.6 per day, or about 10% of the 4H bars.
Even 1 per week would be enough. If you narrow it down you will find that 2 specific 4 hour bars are likely to have that range, and if you want to be more specific one 4 hour bar, the pre New York- New York 4 H bar is the most likely period, as one would expect. So You find there were about 90 cases of 100 or more pips during this 14 month period, about one third of the days had 100 or more pips range during that 4 hour period. And these are just the "mega" trends, like Friday in eurusd. That is enough, imho. Of course I'd love to have it every day, but that would be too easy, wouldn't it

Posted by cornix on 03-11-12 10:32 AM:

Quote from clightmarathon:

Of course I'd love to have it every day, but that would be too easy, wouldn't it .

Yea, and for those times, when there's no trend, we have reversal signals in the arsenal.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Lights on 03-11-12 02:00 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital.

A few internet marketeers are selling motoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220707

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220676

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218977

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220513

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218160

It's true, 95%+ fail in daytrading. But the minority consistently makes. It's akin to professional sports. Same goes for investing.

Posted by oilfxpro on 03-11-12 02:18 PM:

Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from Lights:

It's true, 95%+ fail in daytrading. But the minority consistently makes. It's akin to professional sports. Same goes for investing.

It is highly possible to consistently make money from day trading.These are friday's counter trend trades , it shows you can make money even on a bad day on the wrong side of the market.

Overall a net loss of 220 pips , but a $ figure of profit $220

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Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 03-11-12 02:33 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

It is highly possible to consistently make money from day trading.These are friday's counter trend trades , it shows you can make money even on a bad day on the wrong side of the market.

Overall a net loss of 220 pips , but a $ figure of profit $220

How can it be a loss in pips, but a profit in dollars?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 03-11-12 02:34 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from cornixforex:

How can it be a loss in pips, but a profit in dollars?

I will offer u training course for $20k , it is called magical trading course.I will make a magician/trader.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 03-11-12 02:40 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

I will offer u training course for $20k , it is called magical trading course.I will make a magician/trader.

Thank you for this generous offer, but I am too stupid to learn from any course anyway, so will continue to watch funny pictures aka charts the way I do last 7 years.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 04-06-12 11:35 AM:

There are fundamental reasons why trend trading is more profitable.

The spread eats into your profits , trend traders trade with the support of the market and run their profits whilst cutting their losses , day traders and scalpers cut their profits short and are seeing their profits eaten by the spreads.A day trader might make 10 to 30 trades a day and pay loads of spread , a trend trader might trade only several times a week.

The day traders find themselves trading from 1 and 5 min charts ,charts which are deceiving , noise and random.Just a few reasons why day trading is difficult to make money from.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by bln on 04-06-12 11:58 AM:

Day trading like other trading styles do work for some people. But I have found it pays low income per hour. Lots of wasted hours in screen time, stress, high blood pressure and low pay per effective time invested. There are better trading styles that gives more freedom and higher or same returns.

Posted by euclid on 04-06-12 01:04 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

The day traders find themselves trading from 1 and 5 min charts ,charts which are deceiving , noise and random.

Quote from oilfxpro:

On the 1 minute charts the view is much clearer than other time frames.

Posted by trade4ever2day on 04-06-12 01:50 PM:

Daytrading for most is a recreational activity with a remote possibility of making some money. For some it is an addiction. For very few it is a profitable activity.

Posted by RCG Trader on 04-06-12 02:52 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are fundamental reasons why trend trading is more profitable.

The spread eats into your profits , trend traders trade with the support of the market and run their profits whilst cutting their losses , day traders and scalpers cut their profits short and are seeing their profits eaten by the spreads.A day trader might make 10 to 30 trades a day and pay loads of spread , a trend trader might trade only several times a week.

The day traders find themselves trading from 1 and 5 min charts ,charts which are deceiving , noise and random.Just a few reasons why day trading is difficult to make money from.

The problem is no one knows when a trend starts, or when it ends.

If you have enuf screen time you will almost always see some trend trade that is clear as day in the debriefing but you did not take when it was forming on the hard right edge. Chart analysis has it merits, but really, it is like a cornerback who watches tape of how a receiver beat him.

Posted by oilfxpro on 04-06-12 03:27 PM:

Quote from euclid:

If you trade on the minute but synchronize with the higher time frame , there are less false signals and noise.

Here is an example how noisy 5 minutes can be , whereas the 15 minutes is smoother in trends.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Riffraffpatrol on 04-06-12 03:31 PM:

The right combination of multiple time frame analysis, pattern recognition skills at the hard right edge (not what has formed, but what is forming), along with a true understanding of where true supply and demand is on the charts, and ultimately executing a trade based on more precise shorter time frame entry signals with proper position size and risk management/stop loss techniques is the key to success.

The majority who try to day trade will only incorporate a fraction if any of the above, and hence fail.

Posted by Riffraffpatrol on 04-06-12 03:36 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

If you trade on the minute but synchronize with the higher time frame , there are less false signals and noise.

Here is an example how noisy 5 minutes can be , whereas the 15 minutes is smoother in trends.

Olixpro-- try overlaying bollinger bands on top of the 5 min chart (using a 20 EMA in lieu of SMA)... it will make A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE in your analysis, and IMHO ultimately trading success.

I refuse to trade w/o bbs on a chart.

Posted by luckyluciano on 04-06-12 08:10 PM:

To those that are profitable at daytrading. Please post the average annual percentage returns on your trading stake. Average monthly returns on trading stake.

To those who are profitable swing or position trading, please post your average annual and monthly returns on your trading stake.

Only those consistently profitable should post.

If you lie, you are lying not only to the group but more importantly to yourself and you are useless. You know who you are so stay out.

This will quash this useless debate.

Posted by GTS on 04-06-12 08:19 PM:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-response_bias

Posted by shopster on 04-06-12 10:15 PM:

Quote from emg:

Now that my work is done on passing along negative about trading due to 99% of ET members are extreme successful traders and own luxury tangible goods, i will begin posting positive.

is this a trend change.

i did not see a diverged double bottom with a zero lag cross...............

__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.

Posted by bigarrow on 04-06-12 10:34 PM:

Quote from Fireplace:

Bro, I've been doing this since 1998, thanks for the offer but you wouldn't be able to pay me enough!

PS It's a wonder why you are still here....haven't you moved on?

What do day trade stocks or futures?

__________________
"I don't wear no Stetson But I'm willin' to bet son That I'm as big a Texan as you are"

Posted by TradeCrushers on 04-06-12 10:43 PM:

I've been a professional stock day trader for a little over 4 years now. There's definitely a long learning curve involved, but it's far from impossible.

The best advice I can give to those starting out is to find a mentor. Too many traders make things too complicated and are looking for the holy grail. A successful trader can help you avoid the common beginner's mistakes and shorten your learning curve tremendously.

Posted by mm19 on 04-07-12 12:05 AM:

Quote from bln:

Day trading like other trading styles do work for some people. But I have found it pays low income per hour. Lots of wasted hours in screen time, stress, high blood pressure and low pay per effective time invested. There are better trading styles that gives more freedom and higher or same returns.

Could not said better myself. However I do find intraday trading useful to erase urge to put on a real trade. Taking on couple of minor trades cures me and my mind back in patience mode to wait for real thing

Posted by HATEtheRisk on 04-07-12 01:06 AM:

My daytrading is exactly same successfull how my swingtrading, and i am very successfull, i make money on 9 of 10 trades.

Believe it or not, but its a fact.

But my swing trading is much more stressless than daytrading, because what i can make with one swingtrade in 1 - 4 days, i would need 3-4 daytrades or more, depending on the daytrading setup.
And its more stressy to wait and hit exactly the daytrade setup, its more likely to miss more setups, while its totally easy with swingtrading.

I often play around within my swingtrading setups and trade them as daytrades or some mix of them, because the price always move in cycles, so often i only switch around and seek for the best and nearest in time - next move............

What for you might be a daytrade, is for me just a cycle on a lower time frame of a swingtrade.

Fazit:
Daytrading have the same success level as Swingtrading, if you have statistics to prove this fact and you are mentally able to follow this rules to create some real time statistics from that.

The only difference is the time..........

Posted by Grandluxe on 04-07-12 01:11 AM:

Quote from HATEtheRisk:

My daytrading is exactly same successfull how my swingtrading, and i am very successfull, i make money on 9 of 10 trades.

Believe it or not, but its a fact.

But my swing trading is much more stressless than daytrading, because what i can make with one swingtrade in 1 - 4 days, i would need 3-4 daytrades or more, depending on the daytrading setup.
And its more stressy to wait and hit exactly the daytrade setup, its more likely to miss more setups, while its totally easy with swingtrading.

I often play around within my swingtrading setups and trade them as daytrades or some mix of them, because the price always move in cycles, so often i only switch around and seek for the best and nearest in time - next move............

What for you might be a daytrade, is for me just a cycle on a lower time fram of a swingtrade.

Fazit:
Daytrading have the same success level as Swingtrading, if you have statistics to prove this fact and you are mentally able to follow this rules to create some real time statistics from that.

The only difference is the time..........

hows the volume for your daytrading been recently?

Posted by HATEtheRisk on 04-07-12 01:23 AM:

Quote from Grandluxe:

hows the volume for your daytrading been recently?

Forex: 10 - 20 lots on average daytrade profit of 80pips.

Divided up on several brokers, all retail.
I will never move the market with my daytrading, not even when i will soon start to trade on the real fx market.

Posted by Grandluxe on 04-07-12 01:34 AM:

Quote from HATEtheRisk:

Forex: 10 - 20 lots on average daytrade profit of 80pips.

Divided up on several brokers, all retail.
I will never move the market with my daytrading, not even when i will soon start to trade on the real fx market.

oh i thought you traded stocks

Posted by RedTankEra on 04-07-12 02:08 AM:

There are many options to be consistently profitable in trading, many techniques, styles and approaches that do make money, but there is only one winning mindset.

Unfortunately when the proper mindset is not present the trader quickly blames the technique because he has no idea about that utmost important pre-requisite.

Posted by HATEtheRisk on 04-07-12 05:47 AM:

Quote from Grandluxe:

oh i thought you traded stocks

Sorry i dont trade stocks.

I will never trade one stock in my whole life, as long there is the real ***** out there.

20 lots in FX is equal to 2,000,000. If you daytrade a Dow30 Stock, with 2,000,000 do you move the market ?

Maybe only at pennystocks ???

I dont know and i dont care.

I dont want insult anyone, but in my opinion only retarded monkeys from yesterday trade stocks. Except futures on stocks, might be ok.

Only the markets with the most volume and the less trading breaks in time are the real money places, thats where money never sleeps.
Forex OTC and futures on commodities, thats the real deal.

But what do i know, i am just a troll.

LOL

Posted by oilfxpro on 04-07-12 12:02 PM:

Quote from TradeCrushers:

I've been a professional stock day trader for a little over 4 years now. There's definitely a long learning curve involved, but it's far from impossible.

The best advice I can give to those starting out is to find a mentor. Too many traders make things too complicated and are looking for the holy grail. A successful trader can help you avoid the common beginner's mistakes and shorten your learning curve tremendously.

Thank u very much.

All the losers hanging around on E T promoting mentoring services of failed traders?

I hired your mentor yesDoji ,paid $ 5,000 to Austen for a course ,and had Dr Coernelius take 50% commission from marketing services on $100 dollar trades at Oanda.

Why do bother selling a course that does,nt work?

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Grandluxe on 04-07-12 12:06 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Thank u very much.

All the losers hanging around on E T promoting mentoring services of failed traders?

I hired your mentor yesDoji ,paid $ 5,000 to Austen for a course ,and had Dr Coernelius take 50% commission from marketing services on $100 dollar trades at Oanda.

Why do bother selling a course that does,nt work?

You paid NoDoji and austinp ?

Posted by Grandluxe on 04-07-12 12:07 PM:

Quote from HATEtheRisk:

Sorry i dont trade stocks.

I will never trade one stock in my whole life, as long there is the real ***** out there.

20 lots in FX is equal to 2,000,000. If you daytrade a Dow30 Stock, with 2,000,000 do you move the market ?

Maybe only at pennystocks ???

I dont know and i dont care.

I dont want insult anyone, but in my opinion only retarded monkeys from yesterday trade stocks. Except futures on stocks, might be ok.

Only the markets with the most volume and the less trading breaks in time are the real money places, thats where money never sleeps.
Forex OTC and futures on commodities, thats the real deal.

But what do i know, i am just a troll.

LOL

forex seems good now, flush with liquidity, but one day it will end and then you will have to trade STOCKS

Posted by cornix on 04-07-12 12:56 PM:

Quote from Grandluxe:

You paid NoDoji and austinp ?

He continuously tries to troll in hope someone gets touched by it and offers him mentor help to prove something. But nobody does.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 04-07-12 03:11 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

He continuously tries to troll in hope someone gets touched by it and offers him mentor help to prove something. But nobody does.

Bang on the money ,we can all read charts telling them the future from historical charts , yet no one knows their own destiny.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 04-07-12 03:24 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Bang on the money ,we can all read charts telling them the future from historical charts , yet no one knows their own destiny.

No different from telling the future from the tape or DOM, which are considered "professional" tools as opposed to such an inferior craft as chart reading.

And much more reliable than telling future based on what some talking heads, which have no clue themselves say on cretinoscope aka TV.

But no, you have no chance to be mentored even for all world's money.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 04-07-12 03:34 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

No different from telling the future from the tape or DOM, which are considered "professional" tools as opposed to such an inferior craft as chart reading.

And much more reliable than telling future based on what some talking heads, which have no clue themselves say on cretinoscope aka TV.

But no, you have no chance to be mentored even for all world's money.

I guess you can all read where the next order is coming from , ie forex order telepathy.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 04-07-12 03:36 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

I guess you can all read where the next order is coming from , ie forex order telepathy.

Yes, guessing is all you are left with.

OK, enough for donation to not let the little troll die because of starvation and that's it.

Good luck!

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by RCG Trader on 04-07-12 03:57 PM:

Quote from HATEtheRisk:

Sorry i dont trade stocks.

I will never trade one stock in my whole life, as long there is the real ***** out there.

20 lots in FX is equal to 2,000,000. If you daytrade a Dow30 Stock, with 2,000,000 do you move the market ?

Maybe only at pennystocks ???

I dont know and i dont care.

I dont want insult anyone, but in my opinion only retarded monkeys from yesterday trade stocks. Except futures on stocks, might be ok.

Only the markets with the most volume and the less trading breaks in time are the real money places, thats where money never sleeps.
Forex OTC and futures on commodities, thats the real deal.

But what do i know, i am just a troll.

LOL

Exactamundo!

Congrats on figuring it out. My only suggestion would be to move your money over to Oanda, where position sizing can be made mathematically precise.

Posted by FreakofNature on 04-07-12 04:05 PM:

Quote from HATEtheRisk:

Sorry i dont trade stocks.

I will never trade one stock in my whole life, as long there is the real ***** out there.

20 lots in FX is equal to 2,000,000. If you daytrade a Dow30 Stock, with 2,000,000 do you move the market ?

Maybe only at pennystocks ???

I dont know and i dont care.

I dont want insult anyone, but in my opinion only retarded monkeys from yesterday trade stocks. Except futures on stocks, might be ok.

Only the markets with the most volume and the less trading breaks in time are the real money places, thats where money never sleeps.
Forex OTC and futures on commodities, thats the real deal.

But what do i know, i am just a troll.

LOL

When was the last time you saw a Forex Pair move 15% in one day ?

They all have pros and cons.

Posted by tenthousandmen on 04-07-12 04:08 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Day trading is losers game

only for losers

thanks for paying for the cupholder in my boat btw....if you blow up another account, do it before june, I gotta get some things.

Posted by RCG Trader on 04-07-12 04:28 PM:

Quote from FreakofNature:

When was the last time you saw a Forex Pair move 15% in one day ?

They all have pros and cons.

That's just the point, FX does not have those kind of crazy Swan events.

Posted by FreakofNature on 04-08-12 01:25 AM:

Quote from RCG Trader:

That's just the point, FX does not have those kind of crazy Swan events.

If you get caught on the wrong side of them, yes, but there are measurements you can take to limit your losses. However if you are on the right side you can ride comfortably for large gains.

Considering the above, don't see problematics, but merits.

Unless your strategy is to average down in such instruments not sure, you arent being very clear, could you please expand?

Posted by oilfxpro on 04-08-12 07:11 AM:

Quote from RCG Trader:

Exactamundo!

Congrats on figuring it out. My only suggestion would be to move your money over to Oanda, where position sizing can be made mathematically precise.

You don't have to be precise or accurate on forex .

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by RCG Trader on 04-08-12 08:58 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

You don't have to be precise or accurate on forex .

Another good point, you can be relatively sloppy but it will lengthen your extraction times, and thus reduce your profits.

Posted by RCG Trader on 04-08-12 09:05 AM:

Quote from FreakofNature:

If you get caught on the wrong side of them, yes, but there are measurements you can take to limit your losses. However if you are on the right side you can ride comfortably for large gains.

Considering the above, don't see problematics, but merits.

Unless your strategy is to average down in such instruments not sure, you arent being very clear, could you please expand?

Averaging down is an option, but you must have a very wide capital base to do this correctly.

In stocks, these corrections often come pre or post market where liquidity is thin and if you are on the wrong side, you are screwed.

As far as being on the right side, if you go back and look at Swan events, usually they occur in a technical environment that does not alert the trader to the existence of a problem until it is too late.

Anyone can post Swan event charts, and there is almost never any indication of a problem, until you have a problem. This does not go on in FX. Even when the central banks get involved.

Posted by oilfxpro on 04-08-12 09:51 AM:

Quote from RCG Trader:

Averaging down is an option, but you must have a very wide capital base to do this correctly.

In stocks, these corrections often come pre or post market where liquidity is thin and if you are on the wrong side, you are screwed.

As far as being on the right side, if you go back and look at Swan events, usually they occur in a technical environment that does not alert the trader to the existence of a problem until it is too late.

Anyone can post Swan event charts, and there is almost never any indication of a problem, until you have a problem. This does not go on in FX. Even when the central banks get involved.

There are custom indicators which show you the right side of the market, so there is no need to average down ,just average up .

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Brass on 04-08-12 03:33 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

You don't have to be precise or accurate on forex .

I'm not sure I follow. I would think that the higher the leverage, the more precise you would want to be, and forex offers 100-to-1 leverage.

Posted by Brass on 04-08-12 03:43 PM:

Quote from RCG Trader:

...Anyone can post Swan event charts, and there is almost never any indication of a problem, until you have a problem. This does not go on in FX. Even when the central banks get involved.

I don't trade currencies, so I won't pretend to know. But I didn't think any market was immune from significant and unexpected events that would be characterized as black swans.

Posted by Xspurt on 04-08-12 03:47 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

You don't have to be precise or accurate on forex .

So you mean if I put several charts and some of them were Fx and the others were stocks, you'd know the difference if you couldn't see which were which. After all if they behave differently and the Fx charts don't require as much precision or accuracy, telling the difference would be a piece of cake.

I'd like to see the proof of this theory as it sounds like a losing day traders fantasy. I hear this all the time about different markets and also that it's all noise on the 1m chart so stick with the big time frames, but no one ever seems to want to prove how accurate or precise or factual their reasoning is.

Wanna step up to the plate?

It's like saying day trading is a loser game, therefore you'd know an intraday 1min chart from weekly chart because somehow the rules are different for each time frame. You'd be a loser if you can't tell the difference between a stock and an Fx chart or a weekly and a 1 min chart. Huh?

__________________
Xspurt

Posted by dom993 on 04-08-12 04:16 PM:

One lose much more slowly trading off weekly charts, for sure.

Can we all agree that day-trading is a negative-sum game, and as a result, there is necessarily more money lost than won at that game?

On the other hand, I have yet to be convinced that multi-days/weeks/months trading is any better (ie. a true zero-sum game or even better a positive-sum game), even in stocks.

Posted by Brass on 04-08-12 04:19 PM:

Quote from dom993:

One lose much more slowly trading off weekly charts, for sure.

Can we all agree that day-trading is a negative-sum game, and as a result, there is necessarily more money lost than won at that game?

On the other hand, I have yet to be convinced that multi-days/weeks/months trading is any better (ie. a true zero-sum game or even better a positive-sum game), even in stocks.

All futures and other derivative trading is zero sum (minus costs) because for every contract or unit held long there is a contract or unit held short by someone else.

Posted by RCG Trader on 04-08-12 05:20 PM:

Quote from Xspurt:

So you mean if I put several charts and some of them were Fx and the others were stocks, you'd know the difference if you couldn't see which were which. After all if they behave differently and the Fx charts don't require as much precision or accuracy, telling the difference would be a piece of cake.

I'd like to see the proof of this theory as it sounds like a losing day traders fantasy. I hear this all the time about different markets and also that it's all noise on the 1m chart so stick with the big time frames, but no one ever seems to want to prove how accurate or precise or factual their reasoning is.

Wanna step up to the plate?

It's like saying day trading is a loser game, therefore you'd know an intraday 1min chart from weekly chart because somehow the rules are different for each time frame. You'd be a loser if you can't tell the difference between a stock and an Fx chart or a weekly and a 1 min chart. Huh?

I think what he meant was the FX charts do tend to be smoother. No gaps, and barring a defualt, your currency spread won't go to zero.

Unless you like the CHF or the JPY, there is less chance for disaster.

Posted by RCG Trader on 04-08-12 05:22 PM:

Quote from Brass:

I don't trade currencies, so I won't pretend to know. But I didn't think any market was immune from significant and unexpected events that would be characterized as black swans.

No, you are correct, there will be Swans in every market, but currencies tend to be mean reverting, so the trick is from my experience, if you wake up and the central bank has decided something, simply trade around that position as it will most likely revert.

Posted by RCG Trader on 04-08-12 05:27 PM:

Quote from Brass:

I'm not sure I follow. I would think that the higher the leverage, the more precise you would want to be, and forex offers 100-to-1 leverage.

Some shops offer 400-1 leverage. Here in the states, the best we can get is 50-1

Posted by RCG Trader on 04-08-12 05:30 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are custom indicators

All indicators do the same thing, they take a chunk of price and interpret that chunk based on some sort of parameters.

The fastest indicator is price. Not saying other indicators do not work, but reading price is by far the fastest way to find out what is going on.

Posted by RCG Trader on 04-08-12 05:34 PM:

Quote from shopster:

is this a trend change.

i did not see a diverged double bottom with a zero lag cross...............

s

Interesting way to use the MACD.

Posted by dom993 on 04-08-12 06:45 PM:

Quote from Brass:

All futures and other derivative trading is zero sum (minus costs)

and that's why it is a negative-sum game.

Make an estimate of how much these "costs" amount in a day on your favorite market ... that's how much market participants collectively lose on a daily basis to exchanges & brokers, and that amount must be put in the market *every day* by the markets participants as a whole.

Posted by RCG Trader on 04-08-12 07:17 PM:

Quote from dom993:

and that's why it is a negative-sum game.

Make an estimate of how much these "costs" amount in a day on your favorite market ... that's how much market participants collectively lose on a daily basis to exchanges & brokers, and that amount must be put in the market *every day* by the markets participants as a whole.

Well, my account for one, keeps growing. Two pips is a small price to pay for the opportunity to participate in the largest market on earth.

Posted by oilfxpro on 04-08-12 07:31 PM:

Quote from dom993:

and that's why it is a negative-sum game.

Make an estimate of how much these "costs" amount in a day on your favorite market ... that's how much market participants collectively lose on a daily basis to exchanges & brokers, and that amount must be put in the market *every day* by the markets participants as a whole.

If u picked the right instrument to trade in the right direction , there is capital appreciation in the long run , as well as short term volatility.Long Gold is a prime EXCEPTION to the zero sum game because in the long term it will be higher at $5,000 per oz.

It is more than a zero sum game with gold ,Governments are printing money and honouring I O U 's with new bigger I O U to pay for the old I O U.

http://drpetersnews.com/gold-price-...-2015-2016.html

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by jnbadger on 04-08-12 07:46 PM:

Quote from RCG Trader:

The fastest indicator is price. Not saying other indicators do not work, but reading price is by far the fastest way to find out what is going on.

Yes. A buddy of mine in our group keeps trying to sell me on this RSI overbought/oversold bullshit with an arbitrary stop of 2 dollars. So I ask him if he's trading GOOG or WFC. He says it doesn't matter, you just use a hard stop of 2 bucks.

I didn't even argue with him. I just hung up the phone.

Posted by oilfxpro on 04-08-12 07:50 PM:

Quote from jnbadger:

Yes. A buddy of mine in our group keeps trying to sell me on this RSI overbought/oversold bullshit with an arbitrary stop of 2 dollars. So I ask him if he's trading GOOG or WFC. He says it doesn't matter, you just use a hard stop of 2 bucks.

I didn't even argue with him. I just hung up the phone.

True friends don't recommend anything to do with gambling or where their friend is going to get fxxkced up

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=236978

Only experts are recommendatory for their selfish gain.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by RCG Trader on 04-08-12 08:11 PM:

Quote from jnbadger:

Yes. A buddy of mine in our group keeps trying to sell me on this RSI overbought/oversold bullshit with an arbitrary stop of 2 dollars. So I ask him if he's trading GOOG or WFC. He says it doesn't matter, you just use a hard stop of 2 bucks.

I didn't even argue with him. I just hung up the phone.

It's funny, a couple years ago, I would have made some snarky comment about your friend, now, as a trader who has come to the end of the road, all I want to do is go back and tell others where they are, as I have been there already.

That said, your friend has not yet found that stops must be relative to the volatility of the instrument. Two bucks on GOOG is going to get you sliced up. Two bucks on C, not so bad a stop.

Tell him to research volatility.

Posted by RedTankEra on 04-08-12 08:14 PM:

One of the dangers of public forums dealing with delicate subjects. Anonymous posing as experts posting very dangerous fallacies.

Posted by RCG Trader on 04-08-12 08:20 PM:

Quote from RedTankEra:

One of the dangers of public forums dealing with delicate subjects. Anonymous posing as experts posting very dangerous fallacies.

Which fallacies could be considered very dangerous in trading? It is a pretty benign activity.

Posted by jnbadger on 04-08-12 08:25 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

True friends don't recommend anything to do with gambling or where their friend is going to get fxxkced up

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=236978

Only experts are recommendatory for their selfish gain.

The scary thing is that he has been at this as long as I have. Mid 90's. He's panicking and grasping. It's scary to watch.

I just don't think there is anything better than price. When you are short, and the RSI or STOCH is pegged at 100, you fall into hope mode. I personally don't like that feeling. He should know that.

Posted by Brass on 04-08-12 11:16 PM:

Quote from dom993:

and that's why it is a negative-sum game...

Never said it wasn't. I only pointed out that derivative markets are of that nature because of the equal long anf short interest.

Posted by Brass on 04-08-12 11:19 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

If u picked the right instrument to trade in the right direction , there is capital appreciation in the long run , as well as short term volatility.Long Gold is a prime EXCEPTION to the zero sum game because in the long term it will be higher at $5,000 per oz.

It is more than a zero sum game with gold ,Governments are printing money and honouring I O U 's with new bigger I O U to pay for the old I O U.

http://drpetersnews.com/gold-price-...-2015-2016.html

Trading in any commodity becomes zero sum (negative sum for the sticklers) if it is traded as a derivative, because of the equal long and short interest.

Posted by HATEtheRisk on 04-08-12 11:31 PM:

part 1

Dear traders,

I can trade all markets. I have hundreds of statistics of stocktrades, commodity trades and currency trades.

But i only want to trade FX and commodities, because there are the 24 hour markets and the most volume and that is for my trading the best playing field.

I could trade stocks and i would trade them in the same way as i do all the other markets. But aslong there are faster moving markets, i mean tick by tick and of course leverage - i have no need for it. I am a short term trader, as long term trader, it makes no difference, there i also could trade ETFs.....but in my short term analysis they are two different worlds........

I dont want swan events, i only trade statistic data, get in and out of the trade in a given time.

15% a day on a stock, so what, if you trade with leverage you can make 100% of your account in a few days.

I must be 100% accurate always all the time.

There is not such an thing as a easier market to trade, every market have its own behaviours, you must study precisly, before trading it.

------------------------
I didnt know where to post this, but now i post it here:

William D. Gann: 90% winrate trader in Stocks and Commodities.
Cycle analist, statistican and master in the stochastic proccess.

Introducing W.D Gann
WD Gann was born on a farm some 7 miles out of Lufkin, Texas at 10.34am on 6 June 1878. He was first born of 11 children, 2 girls and 8 other boys to Sam H. Gann, and Susan R. Gann.

At 13, Gann travelled the trains selling cigars and newspapers. In so doing, he overheard many conversations on investing�he listened.
Gann wondered if it were indeed possible to predict the future. Many conversations he had overheard seemed to revolve around predicting the prices that their cotton would bring. Was it possible?

Gann moved to New York in 1903 at the age of 25 and began working at a major Wall Street Brokerage house. During the First World War, he and his family moved from Manhattan to Brooklyn. Gann reportedly predicted the November 9, 1918 abdication of the Kaiser and the end of the war.
W.D. Gann began by studying the basic principles of price patterns and philosophy on how to accumulate wealth, and keep it. After becoming successful, he wanted to know why and how markets, and numbers repeated under certain time cycles. This led to further studies of ancient geometry and astrology.This research led to Gann accumulating over 50 million dollars up until his death on the 18th June 1955.

Posted by HATEtheRisk on 04-08-12 11:32 PM:

part 2

WD Gann became the only Financial Astrologer of his time. A quote in the Journal of Commerce on the 15th January 1921 states, �His calculations are based on the Science of letters, Numbers and Astrology�. It has been said that Gann used planes to inspect crops, however this is highly unlikely as he knew in advance what the market was doing. This is proven in �Tunnel thru the air� where he forecast the exact top and price of cotton on 8th September 1927 at 24.40 (page 196), also on page 208 of �How to make profits in Commodities� for the exact time and price. He also forecast that the stock exchange would close due to panic selling on 3rd October 1931, the low was on 5th October and the market rallied from 85.51 to a high of 119.15 on 9th November 1931 as predicted in �Tunnel thru the air� on page 321 to 323. The book was published on 9th May 1927. It was possible that the planes were a tax deduction and he flew the money he made to a South American bank account.

Since his death, W.D. Gann has become something of a legend in financial circles. His capacity to make big financial gains (both on the market, the Cuban lottery and horse racing) gave him a reputation for uncanny foreknowledge of market trends. The rumour circulates even now that he would enter his numbers at the Cuban lottery on one date and fly to Cuba on the day of the selection in his private plane flown by his young female pilot to pick up his winnings without waiting for prior notification. He is said to have predicted WW1 in 1914 and the resulting panic in stocks. In March of 1918 he predicted the end of the war and the Kaiser�s abdication. He predicted improvements in business in 1921 and in November 1928 he forecasted the end of the Bull Market in stocks for September 3, 1929. He was often dead right in the 20�s and 30�s regarding the price variations in cotton and wheat. In 1935, of 98 trades in cotton, grain and rubber, 83 trades showed a profit. His percentage of profitable trades was often 90% and higher. Stories of this sort have led speculators and traders to ask just how it was that he achieved his stunning successes.

Gann was the author of numerous books on trading in which he hinted at his secret, yet upon close study of his works, the real secret eludes us. Instead, Gann himself suggests a mystical source for his methods. In one of his books. �The Magic Word,� Gann promises �health, happiness and prosperity through the magic word, Jehovah�. He treats the reader to a baffling pilgrimage through the most mystical parts of the Bible, often repeating himself and frequently asserting that, in some way (which he never makes explicit), Jehovah (which he calls �the Lost Word�) is the key to the good things in life.

Numerous hints in Gann�s writings alert the astute reader to his Masonic membership. The allusion to Jehovah as the Lost Word in the work cited above, for instance, is recognisable to Royal Arch Masons. W.D. Gann was a member of Commonwealth-Stella Lodge No. 409, Free & Accepted Masons, New York City. Yet his Masonic career is not the key to his successes on Wall Street. He was made a Mason on December 15, 1922 and �raised� a Master Mason on March 27, 1923. He �demitted�, ie. Dropped his Masonic affiliation in 1939. Gann himself was reported as saying that his �biggest discovery� was made in New York City in 1908. Whatever his secret, he discovered it long before his was a Mason.

--------------------------
Interview with Mr. Gann:

Since all great swings or movements of the market are cyclic theyact in accordance with periodic law."
1
"Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law, and aCause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can bedetermined years in advance. ... Everything moves in cycles as a resultof the natural law of action and reaction. By a study of the past, I havediscovered what cycles repeat in the future."
2
"... everything works according to past cycles ... history repeatsitself in the lives of men, nations and the stock market."

For the past ten years I have devoted my entire time and attentionto the speculative markets. Like many others, I lost thousands of dollarsand experienced the usual ups and downs incidental to the novice whoenters the market without preparatory knowledge of the subject."I soon began to realize that all successful men, whether lawyers,doctors, or scientists, devoted years of time to the study andinvestigation of their particular pursuit or profession before attemptingto make any money out of it."Being in the brokerage business myself and handling largeaccounts, I had opportunities seldom afforded the ordinary man forstudying the cause of success and failure in the speculations of others. Ifound that over ninety per cent of the traders who go into the market without knowledge or study usually lose in the end."I soon began to note the periodical recurrence of the rise and fallin stocks and commodities. This led me to conclude that natural lawwas the basis of market movements. I then decided to devote ten yearsof my life to the study of natural law as applicable to the speculativemarkets and to devote my best energies toward making speculation aprofitable profession. After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the Law of Vibration enabled meto accurately determine the exact points to which stocks or commoditiesshould rise and fall within a given time. The working out of this lawdetermines the cause and predicts the effect long before the Street isaware of either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is lookingat the effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses."It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the Law of Vibration as I apply it to the markets, however, the layman may be ableto grasp some of the principles when I state that the Law of Vibration isthe fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy, wirelesstelephones and phonographs are based. Without the existence of thislaw the above inventions would have been impossible

Posted by HATEtheRisk on 04-08-12 11:33 PM:

part 3.

In making my calculations on the stock market, or any future event, I get the pasthistory and find out what cycle we are in and then predict the curve for the future, whichis a repetition of past market movements. The great law of vibration is based on likeproducing like. Like causes produce like effects. Wireless telegraphy, the phonograph andthe radio are based on this law. The limit of future predictions based on exactmathematical law is only restricted by lack of knowledge of correct data on past history to work from. It is just as easy to figure 100 years or 1000 years in the future as one or two years ahead, if you have the correct starting point and know the cycle which is going tobe repeated."

"In order to test out the efficiency of my idea I have not only put in years of labor in the regular way, but I spent nine months working nightand day in the Astor Library of New York and in the British Museum of London, going over the records of stock transactions as far back as1820. I have incidentally examined the manipulations of Jay Gould.Daniel Drew, Commodore Vanderbilt, and all the other important WallStreet manipulators from that time to the present day. I have examinedevery quotation of Union Pacific prior to and from the time of E. H.Harriman's securing control, and can say that of all the manipulationsin the history of Wall Street, Mr. Harriman's was the most masterly. Thefigures show that, whether unconsciously or not, Mr. Harriman workedstrictly in accordance with natural law.
9
"In going over the history of markets and the great mass of relatedstatistics, it soon becomes apparent that certain laws govern thechanges and variations in the value of stocks and there exists a periodicor cyclic law, which is at the back of all these movements.
10
Observationhas shown that there are regular periods of intense activity on theExchange followed by periods of inactivity. Mr. Henry Hall, in his recentbook devoted much space to 'Cycles of Prosperity and Depression' whichhe found recurring at regular intervals of time.
11
The law which I haveapplied will not only give these long cycles or swings, but the daily andeven hourly movements of stocks. By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each willreceive support and at what point the greatest resistance is to be met."Those in close touch with the markets have noticed thephenomena of ebb and flow,
12
or rise and fall in the value of stocks.

What we know in science as the law of periodicity is but another instance of therhythmic sequence of vibrations, another name for the Kabalistic doctrine of numericalsequence. � If Nature observes these cyclic and periodic laws, then assuredly man mustreflect them in his constitution, and, through his dependence on physical conditions, inhis thought also."

Ebb and flow are words associated with the tides. In Gann's day, harmonic analysis (aterm he uses a few sentences later in this interview) was used in predicting tides

certain times a stock will become intensely active, large transactionsbeing made in it; at other times this same stock will become practicallystationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. I have foundthat the Law of Vibration governs and controls these conditions. I havealso found that certain phases of this law govern the rise in a stock andan entirely different rule operates on the decline."While Union Pacific and other railroad stocks which made theirhigh prices in August were declining, United States Steel common wassteadily advancing. The Law of Vibration was at work, sending aparticular stock on the upward trend, whilst others were trendingdownward."I have found that in the stock itself exists its harmonic orinharmonic relationship to the driving power or force behind it.
13
Thesecret of all its activity is therefore apparent. By my method I candetermine the vibration of each stock and by also taking certain timevalues into consideration I can in the majority of cases tell exactly whatthe stock will do under given conditions.

Harmonic Analysis. � About forty years ago Sir W. Thompson (now Lord Kelvin)suggested that the principle of harmonic analysis might with advantage be applied to thereduction of these tidal constituents and to the simplification of the calculations; and atthe British Association meeting of 1868 he made a report describing his proposed methodof procedure."As harmony in music may be described as the union of sounds which individuallyappear different, but when blended together form a collective chord, or as the flowingtogether of several sounds into one, so the object of the harmonic analysis of the differenttidal constituents is to reduce 'the complicated motions of the tides into a series of simpleharmonic motions or waves in different periods and with different amplitudes, or ranges;and these simple harmonic constituents added together give the aggregate tide.'"Each inequality of any one of the tidal constituents is regarded as a smallersuperimposed tide of period approximately equal, producing with the chief tide acompound effect which corresponds to the discord of two simple harmonic notes in musicapproximately in unison with one another." William Henry Wheeler,
A Practical Manual of Tides and Waves.

Posted by HATEtheRisk on 04-08-12 11:33 PM:

part 4

Thus, I affirm, every class of phenomena, whether in nature or inthe stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causation andharmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause.
18
"If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal withcauses. Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfectrelationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematicalprinciples of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things.Faraday said: 'There is nothing in the Universe but mathematical pointsof force.'
19
"Vibration is fundamental; nothing is exempt from this law; it isuniversal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe."Through the Law of Vibration every stock in the market moves inits own distinctive sphere of activities, as to intensity, volume anddirection; all the essential qualities of its evolution are characterized inits own rate of vibration. Stocks, like atoms, are really centers of energies, therefore they are controlled mathematically. Stocks createtheir own field of action and power; power to attract and repel, whichprinciple explains why certain stocks at times lead the market and 'turndead' at other times. Thus to speculate scientifically it is absolutelynecessary to follow natural law."After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfactionas well as demonstrated to others that vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market.

----------------"My calculations are based on the cycle theory and on mathematical sequences."
"Mathematical science, which is the only real science that the entire civilized world has agreed upon, furnishes unmistakable proof of history repeating itself and shows that the cycle theory, or harmonic analysis, is the only thing that we can rely upon to ascertain the future."
"Mathematics is the only exact science. All power under heaven and on earth is given to the man who masters the simple science of mathematics."
"Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law and of a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. The future is but a repetition of the past, as the Bible plainly states�"
After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfaction as well as demonstrated to others that vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market."
"After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences, I discovered that the Law of Vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points to which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time. The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the Street is aware either."
"By knowing the exact vibration of each individual stock I am able to determine at what point each will receive support and what point the greatest resistance is to be met.
"Those in close touch with the market have noticed the phenomena of ebb and flow, or rise and fall in the value of stocks. At certain times a stock will become intensely active, large transactions being made in it; at other times this same stock will become practically stationary or inactive with a very small volume of sales. I have found that the Law of Vibration governs and controls these conditions.
"Thus, I affirm, every class of phenomena, whether in nature or in the stock market, must be subject to the universal law of causation and harmony. Every effect must have an adequate cause.
"If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with causes. Everything in existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles of the highest order lie at the foundation of all things. Faraday said: `There is nothing in the Universe but mathematical points of force.'
"Vibration is fundamental; nothing is exempt from this law; it is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe.
"After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfaction as well as demonstrated to others that vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market."--------------------------
My conclusion:

Grandmaster Gann was a perfectionist in statistics of cycles.
The more data he could analysis in statistics the more longer and shorter time cycles he found, while studied this cycles how often they repeat them selfs - while different cycles flow into other cycles, what is called the law of harmony.
This cycles are what i call patterns and every pattern have its own statistical rules of where price have to go in which time window, because statistics of the past say so.

I think, his big secret, is simply that he have found out, that statistics of the past, do forecast the future exactly, with the tool of stochastic process - that is a nature law - the law of vibration.

That was also my first clue about how to make money in a field what looks on the first view random, but with applied mathematics, it is everything else, but not random.

My statistics also tell me, that time pattern are rule price pattern, and Gann agrees on that point.

Best Regards and good profits,

HATEtheRisk
------------------------------------------
The whole article is here.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/65263938/...aw-of-Vibration

Posted by dom993 on 04-09-12 04:57 PM:

Quote from Brass:

Trading in any commodity becomes zero sum (negative sum for the sticklers) if it is traded as a derivative, because of the equal long and short interest.

You don't understand what commodities futures are, then.

Because these markets allow for physical delivery, the real Long interest can differ vastly from the real Short interest, resulting in a persistent imbalance moving into the last trading day(s) for a particular expiry.

Posted by Landis82 on 04-09-12 05:36 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Perhaps its because you don't know how to spell Soros or Simons correctly.

Posted by Brass on 04-09-12 06:07 PM:

Quote from dom993:

You don't understand what commodities futures are, then.

Because these markets allow for physical delivery, the real Long interest can differ vastly from the real Short interest, resulting in a persistent imbalance moving into the last trading day(s) for a particular expiry.

Putting a finer point on it perhaps, the strictly speculative element is zero sum. As for the commercial hedging component, there is the opportunity cost that can accompany hedging which, at least in the abstract, can bring it back to zero sum. And so, here we are.

But to reiterate, among the speculators who close out their positions before last trading day, it is strictly zero sum (minus costs). And I suspect that this is how most of us here at ET would be classified, rather than as commercial hedgers.

Posted by Brass on 04-09-12 06:12 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of...Jim Symons etc...

Sebastian Mallaby writes about Jim Simons and Rennaisance Technologies in his book, More Money Than God. I read the book soon after it was published, about two years ago, but if memory serves, Simons's trades averaged about 90 minutes or so.

Posted by riskbiscuit on 04-09-12 06:29 PM:

I think day trading would really only be a losing game if you aren't able to manage risk and set realistic goals for yourself such as a profit target and daily risk potential your account can sustain. I think it's really dependent on the longevity of your account and how long you are able to participate in these markets with your initial deposit.
Other than that, if you are a newbie and trade these markets thinking your a pro with a good amount of volume, chances are you'll lose your whole account within your first few weeks of trading :/

Posted by Jason Fournier on 04-09-12 06:42 PM:

I only trade stock and options and I guarantee there are real quantifiable edges. I have traded for a living for a long time and I do well. For those who believe otherwise I advise you to either quit now and save time and money or be prepared to put in the work required to find and implement edges. It is obviously very challenging because most must lose for you to win and you are competing with some of the brightest people in the world.

Posted by oilfxpro on 04-10-12 07:17 AM:

Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from Brass:

Sebastian Mallaby writes about Jim Simons and Rennaisance Technologies in his book, More Money Than God. I read the book soon after it was published, about two years ago, but if memory serves, Simons's trades averaged about 90 minutes or so.

Aren't most of it hft and automated?

Manual traders placing bets on charts of > 15 min , will often get different outcomes for same set ups .Reading set ups on lower time frames and predicting prices , it can be quite difficult as no one knows the order flow.The order flow and hidden order flow dictates prices and order flow changes several times a day.Day trading is almost like placing blind bets with different outcomes .

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by athlonmank8 on 04-10-12 08:35 AM:

Daytrading is not impossible. You can do it. Just find very very very reliable entries. It's following that method that will tear you apart at times if you can't handle it.

Posted by oilfxpro on 04-10-12 11:53 AM:

Quote from athlonmank8:

Daytrading is not impossible. You can do it. Just find very very very reliable entries. It's following that method that will tear you apart at times if you can't handle it.

Day trading can be profitable , but not using trend trading ,technical indicators , prediction method or some price action.

If any of the above are used , they have to be used very selectively as there will be a load of false signals and noise to bet on.

Alternatives are HFT or some other non chart based approach .

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Macho on 04-10-12 11:58 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Day trading can be profitable , but not using trend trading ,technical indicators , prediction method or some price action.

If any of the above are used , they have to be used very selectively .....

Do you actually read what you write before posting?

Second paragraph a complete contradiction to the first.

__________________
BELIEVE,ACCEPT and LEAVE THE TRADE ALONE

Posted by oilfxpro on 04-10-12 12:27 PM:

Quote from Macho:

Do you actually read what you write before posting?

Second paragraph a complete contradiction to the first.

Of course , what I meant you have to be very selective when using any of the above indicators ,trends (80 % of trends on 1 minute charts fail ) , even p/a set ups fare similarly.

Take a look at this chart with 9 indicators , only one out of 3 trends materialised although the indicator signals ,p/a and trend set ups were the same for all three.

It can be profitable , but you have to be very selective in picking the right signals.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by RobertG on 04-11-12 04:19 AM:

I am not here to determine whether one style or another is a "loser's game"

This is my 2 cents: what turns any style to a "loser's game" is the one trade that "kills". You develop a methodology, you refine it and trade it for a long time. One day it does not go your way, and you make all the mistakes you have done before you even picked up your first book of trading. These trades are account killers.

They happen to all traders, and what takes over is complete mysticism.
This is when most of us come up with all kinds of conclusions about trading, whether day trading works or not, etc.

I had once a bad trade, and it could have ended uglier if it wasn't for my discipline. BUT, I don't know if it won't happen again.
This particular day started a journey of deep thoughts with the theme of "you don't know anything, and not even yourself".

In the event that I lose my trading capital, I will close my account, come here, share with you that idiotic trade and move on. Until then, I pick up my monthly tick checks.

RG

Posted by oilfxpro on 04-22-12 11:18 AM:

Here is another reason why day trading is difficult

It is the inability to predict the order flow , and trader is betting on unknown outcome.Set ups fizzle out and intraday trends are very short and trends appear where none exist in random illusions , and risk reward ratio is smaller.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by shopster on 04-22-12 02:13 PM:

Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from ElectricSavant:

If you are to make it in Forex you gotta be senile and forgetful. If you remember the pain that you have endured then nothing in your trading career can equal it out when you become successful.

Life is pain.

In Forex nothing works for a long time if you have an edge.

You always must be on the hunt.

ES,

what a crock of crap.

this is the mentality of the 98% club.

the game is the same every day and the bankers only have 3 tricks to play.

forex anon. meetings should help you get off the needle.

s

__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.

Posted by Humpy on 04-22-12 02:16 PM:

There probably has been a real time trading thread on ET but I must have missed it.
However there are RT threads on other forums. Quite interesting to see how good the posters really are and why.

Perhaps some of you would like to start one, on say the S&P 500 ?

Or is it going to be all "hot air" posts bragging etc. ?

Posted by Brass on 04-22-12 02:29 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Here is another reason why day trading is difficult...

I think you've done a splendid job of convincing yourself.

Posted by RCG Trader on 04-22-12 02:55 PM:

Trading is only difficult until you begin to look at the Matrix itself. Not the patterns it creates. Once you can see directly, trading becomes a mundane activity that is profitable. I for one am glad that few can do this, because if everyone could do it, they would definitely start changing laws because no one would any reason to undesirable jobs.

Posted by 2steps on 04-22-12 05:37 PM:

I wish I saw this thread earlier and I would have quit trading and saved me some money.

I wished someone told me earlier that day trading is a loser's game.

Posted by wonereheb on 04-22-12 06:02 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Of course , what I meant you have to be very selective when using any of the above indicators ,trends (80 % of trends on 1 minute charts fail ) , even p/a set ups fare similarly.

Take a look at this chart with 9 indicators , only one out of 3 trends materialised although the indicator signals ,p/a and trend set ups were the same for all three.

It can be profitable , but you have to be very selective in picking the right signals.

There's too much stuff on your chart. If you use the price bars by itself, there's 6 good trading signals and all of them make a profitable trade.

Can someone pleas direct me to real time trading forum for euro?

Posted by tradin4profits on 04-22-12 06:31 PM:

Quote from 2steps:

I wish I saw this thread earlier and I would have quit trading and saved me some money.

I wished someone told me earlier that day trading is a loser's game.

Day trading is only a loser's game if thats what you make it. Most of the people posting on this and many other boards most likely have never made a trade with real money in their life.

Too many people give up because it is not as easy as they thought. It can and is being done by many people successfuly. It's like any other thing, most people are lazy and will not put the effort into it. You get out of something what you put into it.

Others try to make it too hard and too techincal. Trading is really pretty easy if you allow it to be.

Posted by trader198 on 04-22-12 06:57 PM:

it is true: the brokers and exchange are the consistent winners.

and the game is not zero sum.

when two parcipants put into $100 in a trade ( a buyer and a seller), the loser lose his commisin and fees, plus his $100 worth trade, also the winner lose commission and fees, he/she does not win $100, he/she needs pay to collect his rewards. so we have two losers if you stand in the view of brokers and exchange.

only if we go curb trading.

day trading is hard. sure it is. even looks every day is the same kind of up/down. but from mathematical point of view, the combinations of up/downs is unlimited. the kind of up/downs you bet is just a small set of them, so the odd is very low, just like picking a needle in a sea. the more you zoom in (the magnitude of up/down) or the smaller the timeframe, the more combinations (tick to tick, quote to quote, one1minute to 1minute bar) you get, so the less chance the expected up/down event will occur.

but if you zoom out a little bit, less combinations are there. for example, 100points move in NQ in a day session is very rare, in other words you have slim chance to get 100point move either against you or in your favor. 3points move is just one 1' bar, in a day there (9:30 to 4:00), there are 6.5*60 bars=390. you will see 390bars, your odd to win your 3point move is slim since there are too many 3points there, the particluar one you expect is just one of them, if you think each 3point move as an indepent event, the chance to win your 3point move is 1/390. of course it is not that kind of low, but that tells you: you should bet on high probaility event, while not low odd event.

most people have an illusion about high probability and low probability. they may think 3point move is a high probability event, but the probability of to win a paticular 3point move which you expect is very low. I can almost 100% be sure next monday NQ will not have 100 point either up/down, that is the high odd of betting, even though it is a low low probability event. or I even further claim none of those five days will have 100points move (tuesday AAPL earning may cause such exception).

day trading is just this illusion. I once see one tutorial to cateer day trading use a gap down example, a stock trends very well up, around $80, then something like peer compettitor or financial maniuptaltion news release overnight, the stock gap downed to $10, lost almost 90% of its value, so the daytradeing tutorial claims you should do day trading otherwise you see you lose so much.

actually it is misleading, if you short it before the news release or you buy put options, hold overnight, man, one deal you are in the rich people 10% club.

day trading is just one way to make money. but the requirements to day trade successfully is higher than any other ways: such as option trading betting on scheduled event, stock swing/investment. you must be able to reponse to the market on the fly. if you do others, you have plnty of time to plan your trade, so the trade quility is high. for example, option earning play (you know the date, market expectation etc. beforehand ), or trend following in a trending market (you can easily see the trend whether using EMA or trendline methods, what event such as FDA drug approval agenda etc./earning)

day trading really is not for everyone.

Posted by alexvnew on 04-22-12 08:09 PM:

Quote from trader198:

and the game is not zero sum.

when two parcipants put into $100 in a trade ( a buyer and a seller), the loser lose his commisin and fees, plus his $100 worth trade, also the winner lose commission and fees, he/she does not win $100, he/she needs pay to collect his rewards. so we have two losers if you stand in the view of brokers and exchange.

If you add a third player - exchanges and brokers - the game becomes zero-sum.

Sure, even the NFL final game is zero-sum. Only one wins the final and the other loses it. It is time for people here to stop using this term. Trading is a financial game for wealth (re)distribution and if you are smart enough you take advantage of it. If you are not, you go around complaining that it is a zero-sum game, blah, blah, blah...

Posted by oilfxpro on 04-22-12 10:24 PM:

Quote from Brass:

I think you've done a splendid job of convincing yourself.

Apart from the illusive George Sorroses of forums who make their money from trading or selling courses and trading coaching , my posts are subjective as to why day trading is a loser's game.

The costs of day trading ,profit potential , mindset problems , signal verification issues and other reasons make day trading a virtually impossible game .80 % of intra day trend trading illusions fail on the longer time frame.

Another fact :longer term traders can make money because they pay the spread for much higher returns , whereas day traders pay the spread for much lower returns.Infact trend trading systems make money cause they don't pay the spread so many times.A trend trader may pay a 1 pip spread for 100 pip potential whereas day trader may pay 1 pip for 5 to 10 pips profit potential , ie 10 to 20 % of profits in trading costs.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by rockefehler on 04-22-12 10:38 PM:

Thee market is a self-similar fractal system, so it makes sense that you trade the shortest timeframe you're able and comfortable with. If you can't make it in that timeframe, you can't make it in the longer ones either.

Posted by Visaria on 04-23-12 09:23 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Another fact :longer term traders can make money because they pay the spread for much higher returns , whereas day traders pay the spread for much lower returns.Infact trend trading systems make money cause they don't pay the spread so many times.A trend trader may pay a 1 pip spread for 100 pip potential whereas day trader may pay 1 pip for 5 to 10 pips profit potential , ie 10 to 20 % of profits in trading costs.

Yes!

Note that the time frame is not as important as much as how much potential there is in the trade. If you could obtain 100 pips worth of potential many times a day, then fine, go ahead and day trade (many times).

Typically you can't, hence you need to look at longer term trades.

Posted by Visaria on 04-23-12 09:26 AM:

Quote from rockefehler:

Thee market is a self-similar fractal system, so it makes sense that you trade the shortest timeframe you're able and comfortable with. If you can't make it in that timeframe, you can't make it in the longer ones either.

Other way around, you should look towards making money in longer term time frames and only if you are successful, look at shorter time frames. You'll probably realise you don't want the hassle.

This is only a generalisation, if somehow you are the new Marty Schwartz, then sure go ahead and trade v short term.

Posted by trader198 on 04-23-12 10:58 AM:

jessise livemore seems he was a good day trader. when he lost in his long-term trading, he back to bucket shop to day trade.

he read tape, bet the tape. sadly he switched to speculation, and broken, commited sucide.

I think it depends on someone's personality. someone may be suitable for long-term, they can not sit 24hrs a day before the screen.... or someone may be just for day trading, a tiny profit here and there, if added up, become a big pile, he enjoyes the in/out....

but most people may be just between. if you are particularly long-term players, you may end like warren buffet. or you are particularly short term, you may end up like martin schwartz.

those between are those 90%?

Posted by Visaria on 04-23-12 11:09 AM:

Quote from trader198:

jessise livemore seems he was a good day trader. when he lost in his long-term trading, he back to bucket shop to day trade.

"The big money is in the big swings" - from Reminiscences

Posted by rockefehler on 04-23-12 01:36 PM:

Quote from Visaria:

Other way around, you should look towards making money in longer term time frames and only if you are successful, look at shorter time frames. You'll probably realise you don't want the hassle.

This is only a generalisation, if somehow you are the new Marty Schwartz, then sure go ahead and trade v short term.

I'm trying it right now, scavenging longer-term trades ... so far only costing me money by turning sooner than anticipated. I need to watch all the time and be able to react to every turn to be profitable, it seems.

When trading longer term I aim for the big move; when scalping I take profit at the first sign of topping. The latter works better for me so far.

I can try still longer timeframes though; patiently waiting for the right chance and setup. AAPL for instance; should be a nice long after it bottoms around 540.

Posted by Visaria on 04-23-12 02:59 PM:

You have to do what is right for you. There are many shoes on the shelf, wear the ones that fit.

Posted by FuriousTrader on 04-24-12 06:32 AM:

Quote from Visaria:

You have to do what is right for you. There are many shoes on the shelf, wear the ones that fit.

what he said!

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-06-12 09:31 AM:

Here is last weeks price action.All the trend moves were sudden and single moves, most trend traders would have missed them or gotten chopped out.

Here trend trading does not work.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by applejuice on 05-06-12 10:12 AM:

day

Posted by Riffraffpatrol on 05-06-12 02:59 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Here is last weeks price action.All the trend moves were sudden and single moves, most trend traders would have missed them or gotten chopped out.

Here trend trading does not work.

So what's your point???

The thread I thought was about u trying to make a case on why day trading is a loser's game??? You've done nothing to bolster your case with this meaningless post.

Day traders will spot these short term opportunites to make nimble profits up and down with these swings.

Keep looking oilfx...

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-06-12 05:27 PM:

Quote from Riffraffpatrol:

So what's your point???

The thread I thought was about u trying to make a case on why day trading is a loser's game??? You've done nothing to bolster your case with this meaningless post.

Day traders will spot these short term opportunites to make nimble profits up and down with these swings.

Keep looking oilfx...

Small profits in high volatility will result in stops getting hit faster than take profits.To have small profits ,one must have smaller stop to make be profitable , and smaller stops get hit more frequently and it messes up positive expectancy.This is not good for the psyche,discipline and emotions of the trader.

Those image shows hardly and major trends , most of those obvious trends break down in a few pips.

If I was selling trend trading courses ,I wouldn't want people to believe they don't work.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Riffraffpatrol on 05-06-12 06:12 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Small profits in high volatility will result in stops getting hit faster than take profits.To have small profits ,one must have smaller stop to make be profitable , and smaller stops get hit more frequently and it messes up positive expectancy.This is not good for the psyche,discipline and emotions of the trader.

Those image shows hardly and major trends , most of those obvious trends break down in a few pips.

If I was selling trend trading courses ,I wouldn't want people to believe they don't work.

That's why u only enter on high probability, high profit potential (relative to risk...ie stop loss distance) low risk trades. It's not rocket science...

Posted by luckyluciano on 05-08-12 01:11 PM:

I could be wrong but we look at most of the big success in trading markets most are not day traders. Does market wizards have any day trader interviews?

Posted by Laissez Faire on 05-08-12 01:43 PM:

Quote from luckyluciano:

I could be wrong but we look at most of the big success in trading markets most are not day traders. Does market wizards have any day trader interviews?

Several.

Posted by Alcibiades on 05-08-12 05:52 PM:

daytrading

Daytrading can be quite lucrative. Daytrading
firms that are looking for deposit to let you
trade 100 shares at a clip with 1,000 "traders
in training" doing so , are probably ones to stay
clear of . A good daytrading outfit will assess
talent with either a proven track record or
with hands on training without all hidden fees .
Most so called daytraders that fail are ex employees
of some financial institution that believe just because
they were around trading desks , they can do it
without any real training . I have seen numerous
succesful traders but they are prodigies of other
successful traders who incorporated numerous
styles into their own . Simulators are good but
can be gamed , the real way to become a successful
trader is hook up with a firm who WANTS YOU TO
BE SUCCESSFUL and has a program designed to
fit your strengths and needs.

Posted by flipside21 on 05-08-12 05:58 PM:

Quote from luckyluciano:

I could be wrong but we look at most of the big success in trading markets most are not day traders. Does market wizards have any day trader interviews?

Marty Schwartz (MW1), Linda Bradford Raschke (MW2), Mark Cook (SMW).

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-11-12 08:56 AM:

Quote from Riffraffpatrol:

That's why u only enter on high probability, high profit potential (relative to risk...ie stop loss distance) low risk trades. It's not rocket science...

This is a very nice set up for small profit takers with loads of trades around support and resistance.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-18-12 08:25 PM:

Here is the choppy markets during the day , but the big clean move happens when most day traders are closed late on friday.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by rtr1129 on 05-19-12 06:14 AM:

Hey just wanted to let you guys know that it's not possible to transplant a kidney. I studied for a LONG time, like two whole months, read multiple books, so you can see I really put a lot of effort into this and was very well prepared. I mean, it's not like people would study something for 10 years before they became an expert, that would be ridiculous! When would you have time for XBox and beer? Anyway, when I tried the transplant it totally didn't even work!!1 Like wtf???

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-19-12 09:27 AM:

Quote from rtr1129:

Hey just wanted to let you guys know that it's not possible to transplant a kidney. I studied for a LONG time, like two whole months, read multiple books, so you can see I really put a lot of effort into this and was very well prepared. I mean, it's not like people would study something for 10 years before they became an expert, that would be ridiculous! When would you have time for XBox and beer? Anyway, when I tried the transplant it totally didn't even work!!1 Like wtf???

writers of books write because they can't make money from trading.Learning from 95% club of losers.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by bigarrow on 05-19-12 02:34 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

writers of books write because they can't make money from trading.Learning from 95% club of losers.

Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, George Soros, Jim Rogers

__________________
"I don't wear no Stetson But I'm willin' to bet son That I'm as big a Texan as you are"

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-19-12 03:13 PM:

Quote from bigarrow:

Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, George Soros, Jim Rogers

Buffet ,Sorros and Jim Rogers use fundamental investing ,they really aren't traders.

Peter Lynch . any blind monkey investing /managing funds would have made money from 1977 to 1990 would have made money.Blind monkeys throwing darts on stocks made money during that era.He was not a trader , he was an investor .

http://www.investopedia.com/univers...p#axzz1vKDASJ4W

Traders are gamblers , these people are investors.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by bigarrow on 05-19-12 03:55 PM:

Yeah good argument, Peter Lynch was just lucky.

__________________
"I don't wear no Stetson But I'm willin' to bet son That I'm as big a Texan as you are"

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-19-12 05:45 PM:

Quote from bigarrow:

Yeah good argument, Peter Lynch was just lucky.

All these rises in the stock markets were due to the increase in money supply ,and abolishment of gold standard.Most of these rises in stock markets were the direct result of fiat money printing inflation.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by intradaybill on 05-19-12 06:07 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Buffet ,Sorros and Jim Rogers use fundamental investing ,they really aren't traders.Traders are gamblers , these people are investors.

Wrong! Soros has been one of the biggest gamblers of our times. He made most of his gains in a single day back in the early 1990s shorting GBP.

Rogers is fundamentally a trend-follower, meaning a trader. He is not a buy and hold investor. He is a market timer. He often changes his outlook about currencies, commodities, etc. I would not be surprised if he also does swing trades.

Traders are not gamblers in general, but some traders are gamblers and some gamblers are also traders.

I think you have not worked for an investment bank or a commodity house to see what real traders do. Their job is easier than that of the people in this forum because they move size. They use mostly the same tools for analysis. This is the trading size. I am not talking about the product development and pricing side. That is a different story.

Posted by NetTecture on 05-19-12 06:16 PM:

Lets also get real - the reason you do not fid traders in this size is that in this money size you need to be there you CAN NOT TRADE.

You can start as a trader, but making a billion or more profit per year is not something POSSIBLY for a day trader - maybe a programmer, but not a trader. YOu can nto track enoughn markets and the markets you trade doe not have enough liquidity - you start moving the market going in and out.

The result? STrategies change when you scale up and you get longer in your trades. It is easy to jump in and out of ES with 10 contracts - it is not to seasy with 10.000 contracts ;)

Posted by intradaybill on 05-19-12 06:26 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

All these rises in the stock markets were due to the increase in money supply and abolishment of gold standard. Most of these rises in stock markets were the direct result of fiat money printing inflation.

Why do you think a little steady inflation is bad? Only capitalists think so. Without inflation there is no way for middle class to ever replay its debt. Marxists who cry for the return of the gold standard, and you sound like one, are the opposite side of the coin that wants total economic control via the abolishment of fiat currency and the enslavement of the middle class to those who own gold, like in pre-French revolution.

I wonder why you think like that because I suspect you are not a wealthy person, as a matter of fact I think you are struggling to survive, yet you want fiat currency abolished? Who is going to give you gold to buy food? Do you have an aunt in the Royal family?

Fiat currency is a right that was achieved by the peoples of this world. Most companies that exist today would not have even started should fiat currency were not available. The owners of those companies would be either dead or enslaved in basements of the rich gold owners like it was happening in France before the revolution.

The right to have and print fiat currency on demand is an integral part of free societies.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-19-12 06:34 PM:

Quote from intradaybill:

Why do you think a little steady inflation is bad? Only capitalists think so. Without inflation there is no way for middle class to ever replay its debt. Marxists who cry for the return of the gold standard, and you sound like one, are the opposite side of the coin that wants total economic control via the abolishment of fiat currency and the enslavement of the middle class to those who own gold, like in pre-French revolution.

I wonder why you think like that because I suspect you are not a wealthy person, as a matter of fact I think you are struggling to survive, yet you want fiat currency abolished? Who is going to give you gold to buy food? Do you have an aunt in the Royal family?

Fiat currency is a right that was achieved by the peoples of this world. Most companies that exist today would not have even started should fiat currency were not available. The owners of those companies would be either dead or enslaved in basements of the rich gold owners like it was happening in France before the revolution.

The right to have and print fiat currency on demand is an integral part of free societies.

I believe a little inflation is good and has given opportunities to the middle class to strive.I do actually own of gold in the jewellery business.

I was merely making a point about the returns (net of fiat inflation) .

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Xspurt on 05-19-12 06:50 PM:

Quote from NetTecture:

Lets also get real - the reason you do not fid traders in this size is that in this money size you need to be there you CAN NOT TRADE.

You can start as a trader, but making a billion or more profit per year is not something POSSIBLY for a day trader - maybe a programmer, but not a trader. YOu can nto track enoughn markets and the markets you trade doe not have enough liquidity - you start moving the market going in and out.

The result? STrategies change when you scale up and you get longer in your trades. It is easy to jump in and out of ES with 10 contracts - it is not to seasy with 10.000 contracts ;)

Correct: the biggest day trader I know of has a small clip size of 4000 ES and full size is 20,000 ES in a single trade. If the exchange limit on a single trade was higher he would day trade trade bigger size. He never holds overnight and he's a quiet private trader working from home. There are no books about him, no big noises, zero attention.

He uses TA, has developed his own system but he also incorporates outside timing software that costs about $20,000.

There are a few great day traders on ET that I know of but they are not interested in posting anything of what they do, partly because the few who do post some information receive ridicule. The result is dumbing down threads like this abound whereas years back you got more quality posts by successful traders about what did work rather than failed traders telling the world what doesn't work.

Now there are even threads where nutters with multiple aliases chat to themselves. As others have explained, if day trading was that easy everyone would be at it. There was a time when it was that easy and everyone was at it but then the bubble burst and folks discovered there was more to day trading that riding a rampaging trend. The inverse of that is to think day trading can't be done and one notion is a sound as the other.

__________________
Xspurt

Posted by bigarrow on 05-19-12 07:12 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

All these rises in the stock markets were due to the increase in money supply ,and abolishment of gold standard.Most of these rises in stock markets were the direct result of fiat money printing inflation.

Didn't he average 30% returns managing billions, what was your returns during that time or hell during any time. After all you're smart and he's just lucky.

__________________
"I don't wear no Stetson But I'm willin' to bet son That I'm as big a Texan as you are"

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-19-12 08:49 PM:

Quote from bigarrow:

Didn't he average 30% returns managing billions, what was your returns during that time or hell during any time. After all you're smart and he's just lucky.

All fund managers did well when the printing presses were printing money that lead to the current crisis.

They forgot to boast they lost money for 16 years prior to 1982.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by RebateMonkey on 05-20-12 03:56 AM:

Quote from Xspurt:

Correct: the biggest day trader I know of has a small clip size of 4000 ES and full size is 20,000 ES in a single trade. If the exchange limit on a single trade was higher he would day trade trade bigger size. He never holds overnight and he's a quiet private trader working from home. There are no books about him, no big noises, zero attention.

He uses TA, has developed his own system but he also incorporates outside timing software that costs about $20,000.

There are a few great day traders on ET that I know of but they are not interested in posting anything of what they do, partly because the few who do post some information receive ridicule. The result is dumbing down threads like this abound whereas years back you got more quality posts by successful traders about what did work rather than failed traders telling the world what doesn't work.

Now there are even threads where nutters with multiple aliases chat to themselves. As others have explained, if day trading was that easy everyone would be at it. There was a time when it was that easy and everyone was at it but then the bubble burst and folks discovered there was more to day trading that riding a rampaging trend. The inverse of that is to think day trading can't be done and one notion is a sound as the other.

Just out of curiosity, what timing software is that? Is the 20k a monthly fee or a one time fee?

Thank you.

Posted by cornix on 05-20-12 05:28 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

writers of books write because they can't make money from trading.Learning from 95% club of losers.

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_tc_2...r_id=B000AP7JOU

I assume Einstein was a total loser in physics that's why he had to write many books and read lectures.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by dv4632 on 05-20-12 05:39 AM:

LOL....

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-20-12 08:06 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_tc_2...r_id=B000AP7JOU

I assume Einstein was a total loser in physics that's why he had to write many books and read lectures.

Einstein was an exception , millions others losers wrote books for the money .

Typical example is trading educators selling day trading training , they post only their winning trades after the event , to impress noobs from demo accounts or $100 trades at Oanda. Take a close look at their blown accounts which they do not want the public to know.

The einstein mentors only show the winning trades , that's why they hang around bucket shops.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by mm19 on 05-20-12 08:23 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_tc_2...r_id=B000AP7JOU

I assume Einstein was a total loser in physics that's why he had to write many books and read lectures.

hum... i think he was just a promoter. some english guy came up with the whole theory.

Posted by Xspurt on 05-20-12 09:52 AM:

Quote from RebateMonkey:

Just out of curiosity, what timing software is that? Is the 20k a monthly fee or a one time fee?

Thank you.

It's a one off $20K but it's not available at the moment.

Next time he makes the offer available I'll PM you and you can check it out then.

__________________
Xspurt

Posted by cornix on 05-20-12 10:27 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Einstein was an exception , millions others losers wrote books for the money .

Typical example is trading educators selling day trading training , they post only their winning trades after the event , to impress noobs from demo accounts or $100 trades at Oanda. Take a close look at their blown accounts which they do not want the public to know.

The einstein mentors only show the winning trades , that's why they hang around bucket shops.

Nope, no real-time day trading calls except for those who already know enough... yet.

Keep thinking it's impossible.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-20-12 11:24 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Nope, no real-time day trading calls except for those who already know enough... yet.

Keep thinking it's impossible.

It is not impossible , but it is not possible with all known systems and methods.Until you accept it is a zero sum game and after spread a minus sum game , it is virtually impossible to be consistently profitable.Accept it is a minus sum game , then devise a system to trade probabilities and it will become possible.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 05-20-12 12:01 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

It is not impossible , but it is not possible with all known systems and methods.Until you accept it is a zero sum game and after spread a minus sum game , it is virtually impossible to be consistently profitable.Accept it is a minus sum game , then devise a system to trade probabilities and it will become possible.

That's the problem of most who lose in this game. You think it's the method, not the trader.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-20-12 01:27 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

That's the problem of most who lose in this game. You think it's the method, not the trader.

That is 95 % of traders , it has to do with mindset , as you say it is not the methods .......but the person's phsyche.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=6&pagenumber=1

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 05-20-12 01:50 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

That is 95 % of traders , it has to do with mindset , as you say it is not the methods .......but the person's phsyche.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=6&pagenumber=1

No different from starting any other business from scratch (failure rate of restaurants is close to 90% for example) or kind of activity which requires serious focus, a lot of work and iron discipline (failure rate of smokers trying to quit and obese people trying to lose weight are good examples).

Life is the same in all aspects of it.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-20-12 02:22 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

No different from starting any other business from scratch (failure rate of restaurants is close to 90% for example) or kind of activity which requires serious focus, a lot of work and iron discipline (failure rate of smokers trying to quit and obese people trying to lose weight are good examples).

Life is the same in all aspects of it.

Even psychologists have 95 % failure rate at successfully treating patients.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by traderich on 05-20-12 02:23 PM:

I have heard that 95% of traders are losers..

This is the same with poker players, blackjack players, and 99.999% of slot players.

However, with that said, there are professional poker players, blackjack players, and even slot players, and of course day traders.

One thing I would mention is this: Uncle Sam wants everyone to report their stock trades but does not want you to report how much you gambled at the casino unless you won. Ever wonder why? It is because the government knows that even a monkey can make money in the stock market.

I had posted a log about 'my simple yet profitable trading method'. I reported EXACTLY what I do to make money and no one did it except me.

There is a new slot machine called SLOT EDGE by IGT. Look it up online. It is a skill based slot machine with a positive EV if you know how to play it. It takes practice but you can win at it. As ridiculous as it sounds, the casino actually 86's people who learn how to beat it. lol.

Cheers...

Posted by cornix on 05-20-12 02:59 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Even psychologists have 95 % failure rate at successfully treating patients.

Nope, not the case, because consulting a client is not something that demands iron discipline and deliberate practice. So if you just have enough experience it's easy and far not so demanding as trading.

But ask an old smoker if that's easy to stop smoking and you'll see the reality: being disciplined by his/her own free will is probably one of the hardest tasks for a human.

Is that simple to lose weight for example? Of course, everyone knows how. But do most who try succeed at it and get into the perfect physical shape? Rhetoric question.

Trading is the same IMO. It's hard not because there's some hidden secret, but because it's extremely tough emotionally to first do your home work and then execute with perfect discipline again and again for years in a row knowing even small lapse can make a difference between winning and losing.

Only who tried it know how it's like.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by kut2k2 on 05-20-12 03:15 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Even psychologists have 95 % failure rate at successfully treating patients.
Nope, not the case, because consulting a client is not something that demands iron discipline and deliberate practice. So if you just have enough experience it's easy and far not so demanding as trading.

But ask an old smoker if that's easy to stop smoking and you'll see the reality: being disciplined by his/her own free will is probably one of the hardest tasks for a human.

Is that simple to lose weight for example? Of course, everyone knows how. But do most who try succeed at it and get into the perfect physical shape? Rhetoric question.

Trading is the same IMO. It's hard not because there's some hidden secret, but because it's extremely tough emotionally to first do your home work and then execute with perfect discipline again and again for years in a row knowing even small lapse can make a difference between winning and losing.

Only who tried it know how it's like.

I have to somewhat disagree. Trading is hard because it requires not only discipline, it does require learning some secret(s). The stuff published in trading books and articles is at least 98% crap, especially the conventional TA crap like macd. Until you learn some actual verifiable trading techniques, you're doomed no matter how much discipline you have. And price action is for the birds. It's like trying to learn how to fly a plane in a gale-force storm by the seat of your pants while completely ignoring the value of learning to use some instrument(s). No thanks.

Posted by cornix on 05-20-12 03:23 PM:

Quote from kut2k2:

I have to somewhat disagree. Trading is hard because it requires not only discipline, it does require some learning some secret(s). The stuff published in trading books and articles is at least 98% crap, especially the conventional TA crap like macd. Until you learn some actual verifiable trading techniques, you're doomed no matter how much discipline you have. And price action is for the birds. It's like trying to learn how to fly a plane in a gale-force storm by the seat of your pants while completely ignoring the possibility of learning to use some instruments. No thanks.

That fits into "do your homework" category in my view. Indeed it takes a lot of time to notice patterns of the market, which work then develop your signals based on those, back/forward test them, demo trade them and then slowly start live trading them. But what stops most who try from doing it is not lack of time, it's lack of dedication to the goal and discipline in doing what's required to learn and develop a solid trading approach.

As for the price action/TA validity argument, I'll refrain from it for now.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by RebateMonkey on 05-20-12 04:50 PM:

Quote from Xspurt:

It's a one off $20K but it's not available at the moment.

Next time he makes the offer available I'll PM you and you can check it out then.

Thank you.

I'm training and doing it the hardcore way, but from time to time, it's good to see things beyond my focus which might broaden my horizon.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-20-12 06:04 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Nope, not the case, because consulting a client is not something that demands iron discipline and deliberate practice. So if you just have enough experience it's easy and far not so demanding as trading.

But ask an old smoker if that's easy to stop smoking and you'll see the reality: being disciplined by his/her own free will is probably one of the hardest tasks for a human.

Is that simple to lose weight for example? Of course, everyone knows how. But do most who try succeed at it and get into the perfect physical shape? Rhetoric question.

Trading is the same IMO. It's hard not because there's some hidden secret, but because it's extremely tough emotionally to first do your home work and then execute with perfect discipline again and again for years in a row knowing even small lapse can make a difference between winning and losing.

Only who tried it know how it's like.

A true psychologist would know brain science is the least advanced ,and we know very little at least about the subject.Anyone who attempts to treat patients is not necessarily successfully at accomplishing the job of curing the patient , 95 % of them fail to accomplish the job OF SUCCESSFULLY CURING THE PATIENT.Like 95 % of traders.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by vincentvega on 05-20-12 07:13 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital.

A few internet marketeers are selling motoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220707

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220676

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218977

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220513

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218160

It is not a losers game, you (oilfx) have not mastered it yet.

Most day traders lose. Maybe it's 50%, or maybe 90%.

I prefer swing trading. But day trading with real risk management (for noobs it starts with stop orders and position sizes) is an ideal place to start, because most don't have the capital to do swing trading at first.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-20-12 11:35 PM:

Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from vincentvega:

It is not a losers game, you (oilfx) have not mastered it yet. Most day traders lose. Maybe it's 50%, or maybe 90%.

I prefer swing trading. But day trading with real risk management (for noobs it starts with stop orders and position sizes) is an ideal place to start, because most don't have the capital to do swing trading at first.

Have you any argument to prove your point , or is this just merely an opinion?

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by RCG Trader on 05-20-12 11:44 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

Have you any argument to prove your point , or is this just merely an opinion?

Isn't all of this merely opinions?

Posted by Don Bright on 05-21-12 12:46 AM:

OK, from a totally biased, self absorbed, bad guy who is only trying to further his own firm.

In other words, take this with however many grains of cholesterol....

Trading, day trading or not, can be the answer to your dreams, or you worst nightmare. IT IS NOT EASY.

As with any solid profession, it takes time, education, and "sitting at the edge of your seat" to make to work.

No free ride.... but, it can be much easier if you just take the time to approach it correctly. Don't be scared off by those who think it's a "losers game" - And don't be sucked in by promises of greatness..... be real about it. It can work, if you have the training, the capital and the drive.

That's it, sorry... wish there was more to it.

Don

__________________
Don Bright (not an alias)
Bright Trading, LLC
http://www.stocktrading.com

Posted by aquarian1 on 05-21-12 01:14 AM:

Long odds

I started on building my system for day trading 4 years ago.

It's been a much longer haul than I could have imagined. Perhaps not so much from the inherent difficulty as other factors. I built my system for the ES and I wish I had picked a better instrument (as Fed interventions in the market started soon after).

If you defined a successful system as making 3pts on average per day (so 15 net at the end of the week e.g. +3, +5, -2, +6, +3), (distance pts not accounting for contracts per trade (1)), on a consistent basis (e.g 104 weeks) - I doubt many have (any) achieved this.

Regardless of how long the odds are, the goal, and perhaps any goal is achievable, I believe.

In daytrading the ES you have large odds to overcome (not the least of which is losing a point in and out (-0.25+0.25=0.50) for the spread i.e. $25 per trade. (Most brokerages computers internalize the trade (not send it to the exchange) and will not execute your trade until the opposite side of the spread has traded at the exchange for most trades.

The factors improving your odds of success are, I believe:

It could easily be that less and 1/10 of a percentage ever get to making $100,000 per year trading profits and far fewer ever become consistently successful (using the phrase as I have defined it above).

This doesn't mean it is not possible.

Best of luck to all.

----------footnote-------------------
(1) As an example if you scale in 2 at 1300 2 at 1302 an 2 at 1304 and closed the short trade 6 at 1299 - so average cost 1302 and average closing price 1299 - that would be 3 distance points -as I am using the phrase.

Posted by patoo on 05-21-12 03:40 AM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

[B]There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative ....BLAH BLAH BLAH......

Idiot threads like this is why I stopped visiting this website.
oilfxpro, why don't you go piss at somebody else.'s parade. What function can you be serving other than to justify your inabilities?

Don Bright stated the actual case. You, sir, are a whiner, or is that wiener

Posted by cornix on 05-21-12 05:31 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

A true psychologist would know brain science is the least advanced ,and we know very little at least about the subject.Anyone who attempts to treat patients is not necessarily successfully at accomplishing the job of curing the patient , 95 % of them fail to accomplish the job OF SUCCESSFULLY CURING THE PATIENT.Like 95 % of traders.

You confuse psychology with psychiatry. I don't have patients, I have clients and success rate of fixing their problems in the long-term is much higher than 5%, believe me.

P. S. What is your education to judge in such a wide range of knowledge from trading to psychology?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-21-12 09:21 AM:

Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from patoo:

Idiot threads like this is why I stopped visiting this website.
oilfxpro, why don't you go piss at somebody else.'s parade. What function can you be serving other than to justify your inabilities?

Don Bright stated the actual case. You, sir, are a whiner, or is that wiener

Do you have any valid points to enlighten anybody , other than attack posters?

Let me ask you a question ?

Can you make money in the long run using charts, TA, etc?

Everybody can read the same charts ,the market is efficient and unless you know something market does not know , your statistical edge is in the 95 % club.

George Sorros said " you can make money betting on the unknown in today's markets , because everybody knows what is on the charts "

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Don Bright on 05-21-12 02:43 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

Do you have any valid points to enlighten anybody , other than attack posters?

Let me ask you a question ?

Can you make money in the long run using charts, TA, etc?

Probably not, that's why traders never rely just on such things. We probably spend less than 10% of our training and trading on any TA.

Don

__________________
Don Bright (not an alias)
Bright Trading, LLC
http://www.stocktrading.com

Posted by Bison42 on 05-21-12 07:13 PM:

Day Trading is a losing proposition due to the fact that people can't stomach losing their own money. They are ill informed and not seasoned enough to see trades through.

If Day Trading was so much fun, every would be doing it! You can't make a fortune trading a couple of hundred shares a day.

I traded with my firm's capital for over 25 years and I would NEVER Day trade on my own.

Posted by Don Bright on 05-21-12 07:57 PM:

Quote from Bison42:

Day Trading is a losing proposition due to the fact that people can't stomach losing their own money. They are ill informed and not seasoned enough to see trades through.

If Day Trading was so much fun, every would be doing it! You can't make a fortune trading a couple of hundred shares a day.

I traded with my firm's capital for over 25 years and I would NEVER Day trade on my own.

Makes sense. I assume you were trading order flow with a MM firm? I may be wrong. We came from the other side of the street, as always using our own money to trade with. I prefer traders who want to take both the financial risk, and the must needed time risk....it takes some time, off trading hours to keep all your profits.

We've always responded to what the market throws, providing liquidity when viable, and making markets when required. Now we can simply do what we want to do, much easier overall.

All the best,

Don

__________________
Don Bright (not an alias)
Bright Trading, LLC
http://www.stocktrading.com

Posted by tenthousandmen on 05-24-12 12:49 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

Have you any argument to prove your point , or is this just merely an opinion?

Proof=My P&L. Check my recent posts, I posted it somewhere.

What's the problem dude? There are successful day traders. Most I know agree day trading is not the best compared to larger time frames, however it is the only place to start (generally) as a tiny retail trader.

When you haven't figured it out yet (you and daytrading), it becomes stressful and convincing that it is not possible. There are secrets to day trading, none of which are related to traditional indicators of any kind. Once you realize the fundamentals of how day trading works, then you can become a very good discretionary trader with huge profit factors. Automation will not work as well for day trades (not MM).

Arguably it's even easier for some equities. So a crappy blue chip company has huge volume before the open-what do you think is going to happen? A random walk small range??

Personally I like larger time frames much better. I have a thread on this. That doesn't answer why you are so convinced it's a losers game.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-24-12 08:02 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from tenthousandmen:

Proof=My P&L. Check my recent posts, I posted it somewhere.

What's the problem dude? There are successful day traders. Most I know agree day trading is not the best compared to larger time frames, however it is the only place to start (generally) as a tiny retail trader.

When you haven't figured it out yet (you and daytrading), it becomes stressful and convincing that it is not possible. There are secrets to day trading, none of which are related to traditional indicators of any kind. Once you realize the fundamentals of how day trading works, then you can become a very good discretionary trader with huge profit factors. Automation will not work as well for day trades (not MM).

Arguably it's even easier for some equities. So a crappy blue chip company has huge volume before the open-what do you think is going to happen? A random walk small range??

Personally I like larger time frames much better. I have a thread on this. That doesn't answer why you are so convinced it's a losers game.

There are many problems which day trading will cause to trader.

He/she will form bad habits of small stops and small take profits , this interferes with the mindset of run your profits .They get chopped out with small stops more frequently.They get hurt with small stops when market becomes choppy , stops which would not be hit if they were larger .

They can't predict the order flow.

The mindset is often caught in short time frame context , they often get caught on the big moves , and on the wrong side.

With discretionary trading , they are trading their views , these may be different from the consensus.Discretionary trading has a lot of personality trait issues.

Day traders are trying to dance to the tune of every market change ,human's are not able to process so many changes in information and sentiment.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by SteveNYC on 05-24-12 03:56 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are many problems which day trading will cause to trader.

He/she will form bad habits of small stops and small take profits , this interferes with the mindset of run your profits .They get chopped out with small stops more frequently.They get hurt with small stops when market becomes choppy , stops which would not be hit if they were larger .

They can't predict the order flow.

The mindset is often caught in short time frame context , they often get caught on the big moves , and on the wrong side.

With discretionary trading , they are trading their views , these may be different from the consensus.Discretionary trading has a lot of personality trait issues.

Day traders are trying to dance to the tune of every market change ,human's are not able to process so many changes in information and sentiment.

Gawd, I am really disliking the term daytrading.

I prefer daygambling. Sounds more appropriate, too.

Long time ago, I thought daygambling was a losing endeavor. I no longer think so. Daygambling can and could be a winning respectable profession.

Daygambling is like playing poker/blackjack.

Posted by Bison42 on 05-24-12 04:46 PM:

Don't forget the small day trader has to figure in transaction costs when they make a decision to buy and sell. It definitely affects your pricing and timing.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-24-12 06:53 PM:

Quote from Bison42:

Don't forget the small day trader has to figure in transaction costs when they make a decision to buy and sell. It definitely affects your pricing and timing.

The market calls the first move ,the day trader pays spread + latency of signals to enter ,when he enters the market reverses , just another price to pay.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-24-12 07:03 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from SteveNYC:

Gawd, I am really disliking the term daytrading.

I prefer daygambling. Sounds more appropriate, too.

Long time ago, I thought daygambling was a losing endeavor. I no longer think so. Daygambling can and could be a winning respectable profession.

Daygambling is like playing poker/blackjack.

Just expose yourself to the market ,and let it hit you left right and centre .

Those sudden lightning moves by the 5 % who move the markets ,and poor day gambler loses his shirt in strip poker.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Don Bright on 05-24-12 07:29 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

The market calls the first move ,the day trader pays spread + latency of signals to enter ,when he enters the market reverses , just another price to pay.

Just a point, from our perspective. We don't pay the "spread" very often, preferring to park our orders to get paid for providing liquidity. If we do pay the spread, then we use the proper ECN, again to get paid for taking liquidity. Latency is not a major concern unless you're stuck in a HFT led security. As far as market reversing - we certainly hope so, since we are normally "fading" the movements. That's how day traders and MM's make money.

Sold GE at 19.36 today, and bought it at 19.05 - near top, near bottom. But had a dozen other trades in between. Sure, could have gone for a longer time-frame, but I prefer to take more smaller profits to avoid the risk.

FWIW,

Don

__________________
Don Bright (not an alias)
Bright Trading, LLC
http://www.stocktrading.com

Posted by tenthousandmen on 05-24-12 09:16 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

They can't predict the order flow.

LMAO

You are such a bozo its somewhat comical. I wonder what else you enjoy ranting about. You quite clearly have failed in a spectacular fashion with day trading over a period of time. Whatever else that doesn't work in your life, start with the question "well maybe I'm wrong, and maybe my ego is taking up too much space"

cheers

Posted by shopster on 05-24-12 10:41 PM:

oiler is trying to get into Harvard so he can be a better failed trader.

s

__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.

Posted by mm19 on 05-24-12 10:48 PM:

use limit orders and spread cost is gone (almost).

the biggest issue with daytrading vs longer timeframe I see is that daytading consumes large amounts of time and bet sizes are limited. Hearing another daytrader size after 10 years of 100+ pct and high winning rate is like 1k or so. that sucks.

aftert 30 well measured swing wins, your bet size can easily be 100K+

And you can do it over the phone and waste 1 hr per day.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-24-12 11:09 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from tenthousandmen:

LMAO

You are such a bozo its somewhat comical. I wonder what else you enjoy ranting about. You quite clearly have failed in a spectacular fashion with day trading over a period of time. Whatever else that doesn't work in your life, start with the question "well maybe I'm wrong, and maybe my ego is taking up too much space"

cheers

Mate

cut the crap!

Quote from tenthousandmen:

I haven't done any discretionary trading since the fall, but instead have focused all my time on algos. It's worked out well, however the low volatility makes things tough when combined with slippage. Non index contracts almost never mean trade, but trend. I've focuse on systems that are as big as possible while being intraday - so 1 or 3 trades a day per contract, sort of swing trading from the open to the close.

I can only guess you are some freak or rebate merchant or pretender .Maybe you were hired to discredit truth and negativity so some commercial sellers/rebate merchants would get more business with positive noob suckers.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by ElectricSavant on 05-25-12 01:05 AM:

I know that I am a moderator and I realize that Bright Trading is a sponsor, so you probably do not believe me.

Do you think I would be considering to fly out to Las Vegas to take the three-day workshop from Bright Trading this October if this thread title was true? I don't think so. Don has told me that this year is better than other years at Bright Trading...so I believe him and this is possible to not only make a living but a better living.

I am serious...

ES

P.S. It would be nice to hear from some Bright traders that are trading the opens with the alerts from the Bright Trading software. Even though I could buy a house for 200k that was originally 600k in the Las Vegas suburbs...I still need to know if one can trade the opens remotley with the alert software? I just want to make about 200 extra bucks per month in my first year, while I keep my day job. I got to get out of the Forex trap that I am in...They will never let me make money. PM me if you must..perhaps Bright Trading does not allow their traders to post internal information publically. I hope to see you at the workshop...not Maverick...hehe...just kidding. A lot of you know that I am a trader for life and am devoted...I have the passion...I just do not have high expectations and I need some trading friends to support me.

Posted by Don Bright on 05-25-12 01:36 AM:

Quote from ElectricSavant:

I know that I am a moderator and I realize that Bright Trading is a sponsor, so you probably do not believe me.

Do you think I would be considering to fly out to Las Vegas to take the three-day workshop from Bright Trading this October if this thread title was true? I don't think so. Don has told me that this year is better than other years at Bright Trading...so I believe him and this is possible to not only make a living but a better living.

I am serious...

ES

P.S. It would be nice to hear from some Bright traders that are trading the opens with the alerts from the Bright Trading software. Even though I could buy a house for 200k that was originally 600k in the Las Vegas suburbs...I still need to know if one can trade the opens remotley with the alert software? I just want to make about 200 extra bucks per month in my first year, while I keep my day job. I got to get out of the Forex trap that I am in...They will never let me make money. PM me if you must..perhaps Bright Trading does not allow their traders to post internal information publically. I hope to see you at the workshop...not Maverick...hehe...just kidding. A lot of you know that I am a trader for life and am devoted...I have the passion...I just do not have high expectations and I need some trading friends to support me.

I'll do you one better, but you have to promise me total privacy for what I show you.

Call me next week, Mr. ES. I'll give you actual GS accounting sheets, without names of course.

Don

PS, you meant $200 per day, not month, of course.

__________________
Don Bright (not an alias)
Bright Trading, LLC
http://www.stocktrading.com

Posted by ElectricSavant on 05-25-12 01:37 AM:

No Sir...I meant 200 per month...Please do not lie to me. (I mean in year one, $200.00 per month in my hand after labor and expenses. not $200.00 in loss..that is working from 4:30 AM to 8:00 AM Vegas time with small start capital)

Yes I count everything as I consider trading a business, just as I once considered Blackjack as a business.

ES

Quote from Don Bright:

I'll do you one better, but you have to promise me total privacy for what I show you.

Call me next week, Mr. ES. I'll give you actual GS accounting sheets, without names of course.

Don

PS, you meant $200 per day, not month, of course.

Posted by tradin4profits on 05-25-12 01:51 AM:

Quote from shopster:

oiler is trying to get into Harvard so he can be a better failed trader.

s

Yea, he is just like that other clown that went to HeeeeHawvard to get that "Higher Edumacation" he claims is needed to make money. If you want to call making $1000.00 or more on 4 -5 trades before lunch losing and say that daytrading is a losers game then more power to you. By the way to all you " Higher edumacated" people on this board. Losing is the correct way to spell when you can't find where your money went. Loose is what happens when your double wide gets away from you on your way to HeeHawvard!

Posted by SteveNYC on 05-25-12 01:57 AM:

Wouldn't recommend day gambling. Hard work. Doesn't mean it's a losers game. Just a hard game.

Posted by ElectricSavant on 05-25-12 05:29 PM:

What?...

Thats a respectable # per post....

Remember I want that net of expenses and labor...and I am expensive! (I drive a Hummer H2).

Did I tell you that I am a real good looking heavy man?

ES

P.S. Don, I am really serious...don't read this post...just havin' some fun with the traders. I guess I will go over and RSVP.

Quote from trailman:

ES

I don't want to appear rude, but you have 15,000 posts and only seek $200 per month?!

What gives?

TM

Posted by ElectricSavant on 05-25-12 05:48 PM:

ok...so I called a nice lady on the phone named Joyce...

so now you Bright Traders can meet me in person (Wifey says she staying at home with the animals, while I go to Vegas with some other animals) if you go to the class...don't beat me up...remember I will ban you if you hassle me! ☺

Have a nice Memorial Day weekend fellah's...

ES

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-25-12 06:28 PM:

Quote from SteveNYC:

Wouldn't recommend day gambling. Hard work. Doesn't mean it's a losers game. Just a hard game.

E S reckons he can predict market ,order flow and direction on 1 minute basis for $200 a month ,it is that easy to trade.

He can predict where price will be in next minute ,5 minutes and days.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by ElectricSavant on 05-25-12 06:37 PM:

oiler...I can predict where you will be in just about 5 minutes ☺

I do not believe in the premise of your thread. But Hey...what do I know?...I am going to find out though..It feels good. Maybe you mean that Daytrading involves losing more trades than winning?

from what I can gather....its all about your stops. If you have a personality that allows you to accept that trading is gambling and understand that you can use probabilites in your favor...well I suppose the sky is the limit. I hear Don has 20 million at my disposal, using some schlock outfit named Goldman...something or other....errr...

We make money...thats all, thats it....it not about marrying any trade...test the waters see what develops...react.

ES

Quote from oilfxpro:

E S reckons he can predict market ,order flow and direction on 1 minute basis for $200 a month ,it is that easy to trade.

He can predict where price will be in next minute ,5 minutes and days.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-25-12 07:30 PM:

E S

I guess the people making serious money are the hft boys , they are trading probabilities and they are not married to any trade .They do not trade trends , but have a bias for trends in their methods.80 % of trends fail on a daily basis .

If traders are married to a trade , direction , target , entry price , exit price and instruments , they will be imposing their views on the market , views that market should work behave in to their thinking .
Unfortunately market does not behave to any one trader's views and imagination.

Unless traders trade probabilities , they will not succeed intraday.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Don Bright on 05-25-12 07:57 PM:

Quote from ElectricSavant:

ok...so I called a nice lady on the phone named Joyce...

so now you Bright Traders can meet me in person (Wifey says she staying at home with the animals, while I go to Vegas with some other animals) if you go to the class...don't beat me up...remember I will ban you if you hassle me! ☺

Have a nice Memorial Day weekend fellah's...

ES

You'll be safe here my friend. 3 days in Vegas, what could possibly go wrong? Haven't you seen "Hangover" yet, LOL

Don

__________________
Don Bright (not an alias)
Bright Trading, LLC
http://www.stocktrading.com

Posted by logic_man on 05-25-12 08:09 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Unless traders trade probabilities , they will not succeed intraday.

60 pages to get to this?

Seriously, is there anyone really claiming otherwise?

Even when a trader says something is "predictable", what is really being said is "the probability that this is true is not zero".

Posted by shopster on 05-25-12 08:53 PM:

Quote from Don Bright:

You'll be safe here my friend. 3 days in Vegas, what could possibly go wrong? Haven't you seen "Hangover" yet, LOL

Don

what can go wrong........?

Italians and food on one side, guns and ammo on the other............

__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.

Posted by jokepie on 05-25-12 08:55 PM:

Quote from logic_man:

60 pages to get to this?

Seriously, is there anyone really claiming otherwise?

Even when a trader says something is "predictable", what is really being said is "the probability that this is true is not zero".

Can we close this DEBATE. totally irrelevant. and highly irritating.
Any game can be a loosing game if you dont understand the rules of the game. even if you learn the rules, dont make you good at the game. Takes experience to be good. even then you cant be the best on a sustained basis if you are not gifted.
...

Posted by shopster on 05-25-12 08:58 PM:

Quote from ElectricSavant:

I hear Don has 20 million at my disposal, using some schlock outfit named Goldman.

We make money...thats all, thats it....it not about marrying any trade...test the waters see what develops...react.......ES

the Savant goes up the mountain to meet the Grail of daytrade.

do we have a film crew on hand for this.

will the results be posted on " the tube "

please advise.

s

__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.

Posted by shopster on 05-25-12 08:59 PM:

Quote from jokepie:

Can we close this DEBATE. totally irrelevant. and highly irritating.
Any game can be a loosing game if you dont understand the rules of the game. even if you learn the rules, dont make you good at the game. Takes experience to be good. even then you cant be the best on a sustained basis if you are not gifted.
...

time to shove off to a new port of call, jokester.

have a nice trip.

s

__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.

Posted by shopster on 05-25-12 09:11 PM:

Quote from ElectricSavant:

I have got to get out of the Forex trap that I am in...They will never let me make money...........

M,

who are " they ".........?

the market selected to trade should have no bearing on the results

the space between your ears is fully responsible for the outcome to date. get that under control or you will still be drifting with the rest of the unwashed masses.

cheers,

s

__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-25-12 09:14 PM:

Quote from shopster:

the Savant goes up the mountain to meet the Grail of daytrade.

do we have a film crew on hand for this.

will the results be posted on " the tube "

please advise.

s

Savant ends up as a E T Gigolo on $ 5 a blow , he would make $200 in a day.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by shopster on 05-25-12 09:16 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Savant ends up as a E T Gigolo on $ 5 a blow........

when did the price go up..............

__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-25-12 09:23 PM:

Quote from shopster:

when did the price go up..............

s

When he used his backside

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 05-26-12 07:23 AM:

This is the punch .

I have finally devised a day trading system that does work , but it uses discretion It is a combination of ranging ,trending and random noise trading where direction gambling (betting) is done only on formation of major trend trend lines of 15m + , and trading major intra day support and resistance.Stops are wider and trading is done on probabilities of stop sizes getting hit less frequently.There is no marrying to positions , as trades are taken on both sides .It also involves some gambling position sizing etc.

Day trading is mostly betting on unknown outcome , it is going to the casino and throwing your money on the table , with tight stops which get taken out very frequently and losses mount.

Most gamblers get addicted to wins , but market gives non anticipated results frequently to make addicted losers.Using junk science called t/a does not help.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by ElectricSavant on 05-28-12 04:19 AM:

You guys are funny...

I will leave the posts...(you seem very adept and readily imaginitive in blow and backside, which is not my interest)

I must say that the decade that Don Bright has been here I have not read any complaints about him.

He bends over backwards to help out a trader and to bring him along. I have seen it time and time again. Now I can say that he proves it with actions. I now have personal knowledge of his ethics and those of you associated with Bright Trading consider yourselves lucky..

Ok this posterboy will shut-up. Carry-on with your ES jokes...don't worry you will not get banned...give it your best shot...I consider you all my friends...well maybe not that charlatan oiler...hehe just kidding.

ES

Posted by Alcibiades on 05-29-12 03:29 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital.

A few internet marketeers are selling motoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220707

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220676

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218977

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220513

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218160

I BEG TO DIFFER ... YOU GET OUT OF IT
WHAT YOU PUT INTO IT ... PROPER
PLANNING AND LOW EXPECTATIONS
ALONG WITH SUPPORT SYSTEM CAN
CREATE A GOOD DAY TRADER WITH
PROFITS

Posted by IcyTrade on 05-30-12 07:39 PM:

I do believe that profitable trading is possible. It is just for the extremely persistent ppl.

Posted by shopster on 05-30-12 07:47 PM:

Quote from ElectricSavant:

He bends over backwards to help out a trader and to bring him along..........

how much does that cost.......

gotcha.

s

__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.

Posted by Don Bright on 05-30-12 08:22 PM:

Quote from shopster:

how much does that cost.......

gotcha.

s

I've never charged for my personal mentoring. We do have basic classes that charge up to $1,000 - for a Lifetime - not too bad. My 12 years with TASC, all free. My decade with College classes all either free or real cheap. 7 years of radio all free.

Anything I can help you with?

Don

__________________
Don Bright (not an alias)
Bright Trading, LLC
http://www.stocktrading.com

Posted by ElectricSavant on 05-30-12 08:23 PM:

shop...if that is your best shot...well....

ES

Quote from shopster:

how much does that cost.......

gotcha.

s

Posted by shopster on 05-30-12 08:36 PM:

Quote from ElectricSavant:

shop...if that is your best shot...well....

ES

Don missed it.

a scholar and a gentleman.

s

__________________
the world is so certain yet i walk on thin ice.

Posted by ElectricSavant on 05-30-12 09:06 PM:

no shop...he prolly' did not want to break the conduct rules...ya know? (Hint: those are the ones you agreed to when you joined ET)

ES

(Sometimes it really sucks to be a moderator)

Quote from shopster:

Don missed it.

a scholar and a gentleman.

s

Posted by oilfxpro on 06-11-12 07:22 AM:

Here is another weekend gap , a day trader would not have made money on it , most of cleaner moves in the financial crisis come overnight.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by mm19 on 06-11-12 07:28 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Here is another weekend gap , a day trader would not have made money on it , most of cleaner moves in the financial crisis come overnight.

lots of cash in broker account. you sleep well or is this sim account ?

Posted by oilfxpro on 06-11-12 09:15 AM:

Quote from mm19:

lots of cash in broker account. you sleep well or is this sim account ?

Used the account for images .

No system or method for day trading would have made those pips .

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 06-11-12 10:07 AM:

Day trader would definitely not LOSE big on that gap having price shoot through his stop-loss.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by tradin4profits on 06-11-12 11:47 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

This is the punch .

I have finally devised a day trading system that does work , but it uses discretion It is a combination of ranging ,trending and random noise trading where direction gambling (betting) is done only on formation of major trend trend lines of 15m + , and trading major intra day support and resistance.Stops are wider and trading is done on probabilities of stop sizes getting hit less frequently.There is no marrying to positions , as trades are taken on both sides .It also involves some gambling position sizing etc.

Day trading is mostly betting on unknown outcome , it is going to the casino and throwing your money on the table , with tight stops which get taken out very frequently and losses mount.

Most gamblers get addicted to wins , but market gives non anticipated results frequently to make addicted losers.Using junk science called t/a does not help.

You still dont have a clue do you? Reading your posts are funnier than watching reruns of the 3 Stooges.

Posted by oilfxpro on 06-11-12 03:22 PM:

Quote from tradin4profits:

You still dont have a clue do you? Reading your posts are funnier than watching reruns of the 3 Stooges.

This ain't night trading , where the big boys move the prices at night .I am talking about bloody day trading where u get chopped out all day , with an illusive win at night where you had no trade.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 06-11-12 03:54 PM:

This gap close today was such a sweeeet trend for day trader.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 06-11-12 04:01 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

This gap close today was such a sweeeet trend for day trader.

Glad you traded it with $100m

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 06-11-12 04:07 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Glad you traded it with $100m

You have yet to reach the stage of financial freedom to let you understand that happiness in life is not about being in Market Wizards or Forbes/Fortune top, but in harmony with yourself... To answer your post, of course my size is much, much smaller than $100M... but WHO CARES?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by dv4632 on 06-11-12 05:01 PM:

If you can't figure out day trading then find a mentor or join a prop firm. Neither is a guarantee of success but at least you'll have a better chance than you will on your own. In my opinion day trading is a very high level skill that most likely cannot be mastered without some good coaching/mentoring.

I have a friend who has told me the markets can drive you crazy... literally. He has seen guys flip out over this stuff, smashing computers and throwing chairs around, and in the worst cases harming themselves. No sense banging your head against a wall if it's not happening.

Agree with Cornix that lots of money does not necessarily buy happiness. Personally I'd rather be in harmony with myself than be rich, although my ideal choice to be to have both!

Posted by cornix on 06-11-12 05:11 PM:

Yes of course it's better be rich and healthy than poor and sick as we say in RU.

But it's so funny when people challenge others for not trading huge size and otherwise consider them something not "real". That gives away typical attitude of people who never really achieved anything much at all and thus don't respect the fact that results and goals can be different and a person is not obligated to dream about being the second Paul Rotter if she/he trades.

One great trader who helped me so much and whom we often mention on my site still trades about the same size ES as he traded 5 years ago when we met... but bet my arm, he cares less about what others think about him not trading 1000 cars and thus not being "cool guy".

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ElectricSavant on 06-11-12 05:41 PM:

Trading for me personally is about efficiency. I find myself not as nimble minded as I used to be and I am a trader for life. I need to be around trading. It makes me have harmony.

Judging trading competence is brutal. For some efficiency is not enough. Trading is all about profit verses risk some have taught. Simply a trader is judged by his results...not the talk!

Anyways...This is my two cents...Am I a professional no? Am I a successful trader in my own eyes no? why is that? Because I have not focused or stuck with a system long enough to endure. I sidetracked myself with the allure of the little amount of capital needed in Retail Forex...what a waste of 5 or 6 years of time. Another waste of time was when I thought I wanted to trade other peoples money and became a CTA. What a waste of three years that was...I hated it.

So with my own inspection of myself, I have concluded that screen hours, focus, efficiency cannot be taught. If you have the right mentality and know the right people and you can get lucky...well then you will get the big bucks. If you want to tread water and not grow like me then it is your own doing.

I think I want to join a prop shop when I get enough capital...or at least support traders that can trade the trade and walk the walk...

ES

P.S. Did I mention... I am very good looking.

Posted by oilfxpro on 06-29-12 08:53 AM:

Take a look a last two nights , the big moves happened at night.Day traders get chopped out due to news flows during the day.

Somebody thinks day trading is impossible .

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=210122

Is day trading gambling?

http://www.mypivots.com/articles/ar....aspx?artnum=24

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by TheBlackHand on 06-29-12 12:44 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Take a look a last two nights , the big moves happened at night.Day traders get chopped out due to news flows during the day.

Somebody thinks day trading is impossible .

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=210122

Is day trading gambling?

http://www.mypivots.com/articles/ar....aspx?artnum=24

Well that night move was someones day move in Asia or Europe.

Maybe day trading is just impossible for Americans?

Hmmm.

Interesting to see that most of the reference is this thread are related to FX. Most FX traders from what I can make out are failed futures or stock traders. They move to the next gig thinking it will solve their issues. Losers love company.

Posted by tradin4profits on 06-29-12 01:53 PM:

Quote from TheBlackHand:

Well that night move was someones day move in Asia or Europe.

Maybe day trading is just impossible for Americans?

Hmmm.

Interesting to see that most of the reference is this thread are related to FX. Most FX traders from what I can make out are failed futures or stock traders. They move to the next gig thinking it will solve their issues. Losers love company.

+1 You hit the nail square on the head!

Posted by oilfxpro on 06-30-12 07:31 AM:

Quote from TheBlackHand:

Well that night move was someones day move in Asia or Europe.

Maybe day trading is just impossible for Americans?

Hmmm.

Interesting to see that most of the reference is this thread are related to FX. Most FX traders from what I can make out are failed futures or stock traders. They move to the next gig thinking it will solve their issues. Losers love company.

Price behaviours change , those night moves are very rare and often die out.Prior to this financial crisis night moves were very rare.

Your assumption on fx traders is far off , and stock and futures day traders are also in the 95 % club of losers.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by mm19 on 06-30-12 07:45 AM:

i do indices and fx, and extremly rarely stock.

positive in all.

fx seem to be more fluid and thats where my largest gains so far measured by amount of risk taken (stop)

Posted by riffrafffpatrol on 06-30-12 11:38 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

This is the punch .

Day trading is mostly betting on unknown outcome , it is going to the casino and throwing your money on the table

ALL TYPES OF TRADING HAVE UNKNOWN OUTCOMES!!! Regardless of the stats on a high probability setup over a large sample size-- each individual trade based on that setup stands alone as a random event with uncertainty attached to it. Here's the key though:

Consistency comes from knowing what you're going to do next.... NOT knowing what's going to happen next.

If the setup has an edge-- you will be profitable bottom line.

Posted by riffrafffpatrol on 06-30-12 12:08 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

This is the punch .

I have finally devised a day trading system that does work... Stops are wider and trading is done on probabilities of stop sizes getting hit less frequently...

Day trading is mostly betting... with tight stops which get taken out very frequently and losses mount.

Hogwash... pure hogwash.

Success comes from having an edge. Tight stops being taken out frequently is a misnomer as a general statement in and of itself.... there are reasons specifically why tight stops will be taken out. Conversely-- with the right market conditions along with knowing the right trade setups on your individual equity being traded and the timing of the entry results in maximum reward with least amount of risk (1R or less).

As an example-- price comes down intraday to revisit a low of day-- some consider it novice to place a stop just below the low on a long reversal trade-- because market makers know stops are there and will sweep "losers" or "amateurs" away. Not so-- It's all about the edge. Those that have no edge are forced to set wider stops... thinking they are being smarter than the pros by not "advertising" to be taken out by market makers. But that diminishes the reward! What they dont seem to realize is that with the right timing and setups price will have an extremely low probability to revisit that extreme high or low during their trade's timeframe...this allows for max reward! (mathematically impossible to have it both ways-- wide stops and max reward dont go hand in hand-- unless of course u want to raise the risk) The true amateurs are those that are forced to set wide stops due to lack of an edge on timing the entry!

Disagree? Read through this thread (pgs 10-14) which will explain further with a real world trade example:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...444#post3559444

Posted by TheBlackHand on 06-30-12 08:06 PM:

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

ALL TYPES OF TRADING HAVE UNKNOWN OUTCOMES!!! Regardless of the stats on a high probability setup over a large sample size-- each individual trade based on that setup stands alone as a random event with uncertainty attached to it. Here's the key though:

Consistency comes from knowing what you're going to do next.... NOT knowing what's going to happen next.

If the setup has an edge-- you will be profitable bottom line.

Posted by cornix on 07-01-12 04:56 AM:

Very good points, Riffraff!

That's exactly what most don't understand: trading, any trading is always a bet on unknown outcome. Thinking it isn't simply means one either owns the world (the most important inside information at least) already or just is a person who is not in control of his/her own ego.

Second case is much more common of course, this forum is full of unrecognized geniuses, who think they can be more than just pro gamblers in this game.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by plyka on 07-01-12 05:45 AM:

Quote from intradaybill:

Why do you think a little steady inflation is bad? Only capitalists think so. Without inflation there is no way for middle class to ever replay its debt. Marxists who cry for the return of the gold standard, and you sound like one, are the opposite side of the coin that wants total economic control via the abolishment of fiat currency and the enslavement of the middle class to those who own gold, like in pre-French revolution.

I wonder why you think like that because I suspect you are not a wealthy person, as a matter of fact I think you are struggling to survive, yet you want fiat currency abolished? Who is going to give you gold to buy food? Do you have an aunt in the Royal family?

Fiat currency is a right that was achieved by the peoples of this world. Most companies that exist today would not have even started should fiat currency were not available. The owners of those companies would be either dead or enslaved in basements of the rich gold owners like it was happening in France before the revolution.

The right to have and print fiat currency on demand is an integral part of free societies.

god only knows what the hell this guy is talking about.

Posted by ocean5 on 07-01-12 05:50 AM:

trade Silver at full margin,all-in and you`d be alright.Shitting only once a day in your pants while trading is allowed.

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-01-12 06:46 AM:

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

ALL TYPES OF TRADING HAVE UNKNOWN OUTCOMES!!! Regardless of the stats on a high probability setup over a large sample size-- each individual trade based on that setup stands alone as a random event with uncertainty attached to it. Here's the key though:

Consistency comes from knowing what you're going to do next.... NOT knowing what's going to happen next.

If the setup has an edge-- you will be profitable bottom line.

With day trading , you are trading noise and trading with the wind.

If the set up has an edge , IF is the important word. Set ups in day trading are not identifiable from random walks , more set ups fail . INTRA DAY SET UPS based on discretionary trading can not be back tested , to see if they have an edge.

So according to you ,it is all about discipline , psychology , your game plan and how you react to the market behaviour and those failed set ups .It all works fine in theory , until the market starts behaving unpredictably .

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=6&pagenumber=1

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-01-12 06:51 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Very good points, Riffraff!

That's exactly what most don't understand: trading, any trading is always a bet on unknown outcome. Thinking it isn't simply means one either owns the world (the most important inside information at least) already or just is a person who is not in control of his/her own ego.

Second case is much more common of course, this forum is full of unrecognized geniuses, who think they can be more than just pro gamblers in this game.

Beneath every genius is an ordinary bloke trying to express himself! Freaking genuises on E T!

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-01-12 07:09 AM:

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

Hogwash... pure hogwash.

Success comes from having an edge. Tight stops being taken out frequently is a misnomer as a general statement in and of itself.... there are reasons specifically why tight stops will be taken out. .

The true amateurs are those that are forced to set wide stops due to lack of an edge on timing the entry!

Disagree? Read through this thread (pgs 10-14) which will explain further with a real world trade example:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...444#post3559444

Nonsense : Pure snake oil/mentor talk from somebody who doesn't trade.

Tight stops will throw traders out of their most profitable trades , often you hear cases of traders being spiked out, when volatility expands tight stops get slaughtered.

The sensible traders who want to stay in a trade , will use wider stops or mental stops.

If your set up has an edge , you don't need a tight stop.The further away your stop ,the more profitable you will become , you will pay less in shaken out costs and spreads.

Some systems that ran profits for up to 250 pips were more profitable , compared to tight stop traders , because they did not pay the spread many times long a trend.

You will see the price come to your tight stop and take you out ,many times a day , and rebound.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 07-01-12 07:38 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

With day trading , you are trading noise and trading with the wind.

If the set up has an edge , IF is the important word. Set ups in day trading are not identifiable from random walks , more set ups fail . INTRA DAY SET UPS based on discretionary trading can not be back tested , to see if they have an edge.

So according to you ,it is all about discipline , psychology , your game plan and how you react to the market behaviour and those failed set ups .It all works fine in theory , until the market starts behaving unpredictably .

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=6&pagenumber=1

Can DOM scalping in FI or other liquid futures be backtested? Of course not. Does it mean this kind of trading is impossible? Tell this to some FI scalper, make him laugh.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 07-01-12 07:41 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Nonsense : Pure snake oil/mentor talk from somebody who doesn't trade.

Tight stops will throw traders out of their most profitable trades , often you hear cases of traders being spiked out, when volatility expands tight stops get slaughtered.

The sensible traders who want to stay in a trade , will use wider stops or mental stops.

If your set up has an edge , you don't need a tight stop.The further away your stop ,the more profitable you will become , you will pay less in shaken out costs and spreads.

Some systems that ran profits for up to 250 pips were more profitable , compared to tight stop traders , because they did not pay the spread many times long a trend.

You will see the price come to your tight stop and take you out ,many times a day , and rebound.

Wow, dude, now you officially know the only correct way to trade, anything else besides what you said is a losers game, anyone who trades differently from what you said is a loser. Congrats, mr. The One Who Knows Ultimate Truth!

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by riffrafffpatrol on 07-01-12 08:49 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Nonsense : Pure snake oil/mentor talk from somebody who doesn't trade.

Tight stops will throw traders out of their most profitable trades , often you hear cases of traders being spiked out, when volatility expands tight stops get slaughtered.

The sensible traders who want to stay in a trade , will use wider stops or mental stops.

If your set up has an edge , you don't need a tight stop.The further away your stop ,the more profitable you will become , you will pay less in shaken out costs and spreads.

Some systems that ran profits for up to 250 pips were more profitable , compared to tight stop traders , because they did not pay the spread many times long a trend.

You will see the price come to your tight stop and take you out ,many times a day , and rebound.

Sorry Oilxpro-- you are wrong.... Im a full time intraday directional options trader -- I am flat every nite.

Amateurs need wide stops because they truly dont understand proper entries. Proper postion sizing in such cases result in fewer shares/contracts. A trader who has an edge in the market and understands high probability entry criteria can position size for max shares/contracts with the same amount of risk but far larger profit potential. And for the times when the stop loss hits - the trader with the edge moves on looking for that exact same setup-- knowing that he has an edge & that each trade stands on its own merit. For the reckless novice in contrast that didnt positiom size because he felt that widr stop had no chance of hitting -- a huge loss results! What camp do u fall in olix?

Did u happen to read the thread i provided a link on? I will show u equity after equity --day in day out--of the same type of movement that aapl displayed-- with far less than even .19 of price revisiting a pivot lod/hod before reversing -- how is this remotely possible??? The mm sweep of stops as a general rule is pure bs... I see charts everyday in high beta names where it never happens... why olix? U have no clue obviously -- and judging by title of this thread and your ignorant reponses- i dont expect u to understand. Just know that u r wrong -- that is a fact. There are soecific reasons why stops will get swept -- reasons far greater than a consiracy theory that mms see u & want u out -- stops get broken more often than not and novices w/tight stops get swept because their entry was wrong!!! Going long when the clear indication was for new lows to be made! Again did u read the thread I linked???

Posted by riffrafffpatrol on 07-01-12 09:14 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

With day trading , you are trading noise and trading with the wind.

If the set up has an edge , IF is the important word. Set ups in day trading are not identifiable from random walks , more set ups fail . INTRA DAY SET UPS based on discretionary trading can not be back tested , to see if they have an edge.

So according to you ,it is all about discipline , psychology , your game plan and how you react to the market behaviour and those failed set ups .It all works fine in theory , until the market starts behaving unpredictably .

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...=6&pagenumber=1

This is beyond laughable.

Olix- let me guess-- u have failed...and failed miserably I might add-- as a day trader-- am I close to the proverbial nail? If you say no -- i say bs. Because anyone who has succeeded in this biz would never subscribe to such blatant fallacies!

"Noise"???? Lol -- u have got to be kidding-- seriously olix??? Im really beginning to question intelligence here... do u realize the timeframes we are dealing with here intraday? I am almost 100% sure I know what your answer will be... I think I will wait to see if my intuition is correct... but know this--noise definitely exists-- no shred of a doubt here... however once again u are taking a generality and applying it as a rule to fit your thesis. Big problem there olix-- there are layers and layers in between... perhaps u just dont get it olix-- ever think that's a possiblity? Or do we have to much pride? What is it...?

"more setups fail"???? Really now? Please enlighten me first on how many intraday setups exist. Then tell me how many actually fail. Because for u to make such a statement can only mean u know the answer to these questions. Cant wait to here your reply-- but be very careful-- your credibility is at stake now.

No backtesting? Really? Hmmm-- so the intraday strategy setup that I see in a single specific equity multiple times everyday regardless of an inside bearish market day, inside bullish market day, outside bearish/outside bullish market day... cant be tested over let's say a 2 year period on a specific timeframe with a minimum of a specific sampling size number required in order to be statistically meaningful and valid... simply cant be done...?
Hmmm...

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-01-12 10:08 AM:

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

For the reckless novice in contrast that didnt positiom size because he felt that widr stop had no chance of hitting -- a huge loss results! What camp do u fall in olix?

Did u happen to read the thread i provided a link on? Again did u read the thread I linked???

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...033#post3560033

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by riffrafffpatrol on 07-01-12 06:30 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...033#post3560033

Uuuuummmm... were u trying to say something olix...?

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-01-12 06:41 PM:

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

Uuuuummmm... were u trying to say something olix...?

No words are neccesary!Retards would not understand..

Need to change your handle and remove patrol.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by riffrafffpatrol on 07-01-12 07:32 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

No words are neccesary!Retards would not understand..

Need to change your handle and remove patrol.

Just as I thought-- your lack of apologetic rebuttal to my posts refuting your thesis speaks wonders...

It's always amazing to me how many times posters such as u prove themselves wrong with little effort by those in the know.

Here's a tip for you-- get an education how markets really work olix-- there still is hope for u if u truly apply yourself instead of the negative attitude that exudes ignorance.

Posted by riffrafffpatrol on 07-03-12 03:10 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

No words are neccesary!Retards would not understand..

Need to change your handle and remove patrol.

Similar to my AAPL example that I provided a link on-- take a look at LNKD today...

Price rises rapidly during the first 15 min bar of the open....

In the meantime to the left of the chart we see strong resistance from 5/18 where price drops violently from a high of $ 109.47...time at this level is minimal... a stop above the high of the day with an entry on the 3rd 5 min candle that failed to make a new high after a large extended range candle resulted in a drop of almost 3 1/2 points...

Most interesting however is where price stops and reverses-- $ .04 above the pivot low from Friday! $ .04!!! Why didnt market makers not only take out the low... but drop drastically below the low??? Surely the MMs see the stops???

Olix-- is this noise? Of course not... there are plenty of spots on the chart where noise exists... this isn't one of them... When you can recognize the setups... with proper risk mgmt and position sizing... success at day trading is feasible.... simple as that.

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-03-12 09:55 AM:

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

Here's a tip for you-- get an education how markets really work olix-- there still is hope for u

Not buying snake oil trading education.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by riffrafffpatrol on 07-03-12 02:37 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Not buying snake oil trading education.

Who said anything about "buying"???

I am starting to see a pattern here now olix- you make to many assumptions.

I dont sell education! But I make it a point to educate myself everyday in the markets.... you really should try to do the same...

No need to spend any money-- seek out the education available that is free-- there are many resources. Of course its not totally free-- it takes time-- hours and hours and hours over a period of 1-2 years before you will finally get it...

The examples I gave you arent just coincidences.... you simply need to know what to look for...

This stuff is NOT easy-- I am not suggesting that at all-- but it is possible to succeed if you apply yourself... something you havent been willing to do yet.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 07-04-12 05:08 AM:

Quote from plyka:

god only knows what the hell this guy is talking about.

Must be obama's financial advisor.
Quite frankly I've never known of a marxist advocating a return to the gold standard.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by Xspurt on 07-11-12 02:38 PM:

This thread is typical of the hilarious well trodden path for the majority on ET.

Oily has an experienced reality: he has proven to his hearts content that he can't daytrade and his conclusion is profound - if he can't daytrade then no one can.

He is so convinced of his brilliance that anyone attempting to show him an alternate reality is in his mind a con artist. To counter anyone attempting to show him how a set up works he has his rule book of Daytrading Traps & Failures.

It might be quite valuable because doing the opposite of what he says is closer to the way to success. What is funny is how after all these pages some people try to convince him otherwise.

If a set up is good, the time frame doesn't matter. As I have said before, I'll post a few charts here without the time frame on them and I challenge oily to tell me which are daily, weekly, hourly, minute or 10 second charts.

If you can't tell the difference, then how can you trade them differently? Instead of saying what doesn't work, why not say, here is the way to trade this chart.

It's a figment of the imagination to think signals on one chart that are the exact same on another chart don't work because it says a particular time frame.

Here is how to PROVE day trading set ups don't work: put up a daily chart and demonstrate a set up that works. Then put up an intraday chart with the same set up and show why it fails. The problem is not that Oily can't daytrade, it's much deeper seated than that.

__________________
Xspurt

Posted by ExchangeBonds on 07-11-12 03:00 PM:

Oil is either delusional and mentally unstable (my guess) or a giant troll. He's gone from wanting to day trade oil when he first came here to saying day trading is a losers game to I need to hire people to trade for me for my longer term trades that might appear during the night to finding a system that works for day trading currencies. Give me a break. Is day trading possible or not, make up your mind.

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-11-12 03:09 PM:

Quote from ExchangeBonds:

Oil is either delusional and mentally unstable (my guess) or a giant troll. He's gone from wanting to day trade oil when he first came here to saying day trading is a losers game to I need to hire people to trade for me for my longer term trades that might appear during the night to finding a system that works for day trading currencies. Give me a break. Is day trading possible or not, make up your mind.

Day trading is difficult and it is a hard game ,until you master it.When you master it , it is a holy grail.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 07-11-12 03:24 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Day trading is difficult and it is a hard game ,until you master it.When you master it , it is a holy grail.

Why is it a losers game then?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-11-12 03:25 PM:

Quote from Xspurt:

This thread is typical of the hilarious well trodden path for the majority on ET.

Oily has an experienced reality: he has proven to his hearts content that he can't daytrade and his conclusion is profound - if he can't daytrade then no one can.

He is so convinced of his brilliance that anyone attempting to show him an alternate reality is in his mind a con artist. To counter anyone attempting to show him how a set up works he has his rule book of Daytrading Traps & Failures.

It might be quite valuable because doing the opposite of what he says is closer to the way to success. What is funny is how after all these pages some people try to convince him otherwise.

If a set up is good, the time frame doesn't matter. As I have said before, I'll post a few charts here without the time frame on them and I challenge oily to tell me which are daily, weekly, hourly, minute or 10 second charts.

If you can't tell the difference, then how can you trade them differently? Instead of saying what doesn't work, why not say, here is the way to trade this chart.

It's a figment of the imagination to think signals on one chart that are the exact same on another chart don't work because it says a particular time frame.

Here is how to PROVE day trading set ups don't work: put up a daily chart and demonstrate a set up that works. Then put up an intraday chart with the same set up and show why it fails. The problem is not that Oily can't daytrade, it's much deeper seated than that.

Don't worry ! Soon this will be my pitch on E T to sell trading education on day trading.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by mcgene4xpro on 07-11-12 03:29 PM:

Quote from Fireplace:

Humans are amazing.....when they don't succeed at something they believe it must be because it's impossible. LOL

The best post i read today. Agree 100%

__________________
High Risk = High Gain

Posted by Ol' Yella on 07-11-12 04:10 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Don't worry ! Soon this will be my pitch on E T to sell trading education on day trading.

And here we have it--the birth of a trading vendor.

I wonder if this is the path all vendors follow? As the old saying goes--those who can do, those who can't teach.

Posted by emg on 07-11-12 05:17 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Don't worry ! Soon this will be my pitch on E T to sell trading education on day trading.

Quote from Ol' Yella:

And here we have it--the birth of a trading vendor.

I wonder if this is the path all vendors follow? As the old saying goes--those who can do, those who can't teach.

the path for small traders begin losing for the next 5-20 years.

Higher Education is the key to become a successful trader.

Higher Education!

__________________
More Than 90% of Small Traders Lose. THEY JUST LOSE!!!!!

Posted by emg on 07-11-12 05:24 PM:

Higher Education!

__________________
More Than 90% of Small Traders Lose. THEY JUST LOSE!!!!!

Posted by Visaria on 07-11-12 05:25 PM:

Higher education!!!

Are u gonna give us Higher Education, emg?

Posted by LincolnArmy on 07-11-12 06:55 PM:

I wouldn't expect emg to educate you.
He found his mba in a christmas cracker.

Posted by Eight on 07-11-12 09:12 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

Actually trading is not zero sum. I've been seeing that said for many years, it's easy to remember, to repeat, but it's like an urban legend, it's not true.

If a company beats earnings everybody's shares rise. That is not zero sum. Some people use futures for legitimate purposes, they buy and sell them to offset their risks in other markets. They consider taking a loss on the futures contract to be an insurance payment.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 07-12-12 12:23 AM:

Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from Eight:

Actually trading is not zero sum. I've been seeing that said for many years, it's easy to remember, to repeat, but it's like an urban legend, it's not true.

If a company beats earnings everybody's shares rise. That is not zero sum. Some people use futures for legitimate purposes, they buy and sell them to offset their risks in other markets. They consider taking a loss on the futures contract to be an insurance payment.

You are right, trading is not a zero sum game it has a very strong tendency towards a negative sum game because of slippage and commissions.
The shorter your holding time the greater the tendency towards the negative sum game.

Your last example is all muddled. Someone deciding to play a negative sum game (futures or insurance) as "PART" of an overall strategy does not change the nature of the game being played. one part may be a positive sum game the futures and ins part are definitely negative sum game not zero sum game.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by luckyluciano on 07-12-12 02:09 AM:

I think Oil is asking, for the day traders here, what is your average monthly return? Its the only true measurement of comparison if your winning or losing. Everything else is just noise and babble.
Every day trader man up. What's the number.

__________________
ALL STOCKS ARE BAD UNLESS THEY ARE GOING UP!

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-12-12 07:13 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

You are right, trading is not a zero sum game it has a very strong tendency towards a negative sum game because of slippage and commissions.
The shorter your holding time the greater the tendency towards the negative sum game.

The more trades a day trader does , the more he loses in commissions.If all day traders calculated their profit and loss , the average result would be a whooping bunch of losers.Spread and commissions is 10 to 20 % of profits , a negative sum to start with.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 07-12-12 07:47 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

The more trades a day trader does , the more he loses in commissions.If all day traders calculated their profit and loss , the average result would be a whooping bunch of losers.Spread and commissions is 10 to 20 % of profits , a negative sum to start with.

Of course. But any business is what your bottom line in the end. If day trading makes you better ROC in the end of say a year than swing trading, it's the fact one can't deny. ROC is ROC, who cares how much you paid in commissions or whatever other expenses.

If swing trading makes you more than day trading, then of course, such a day trading is just stupid waste of time.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 07-12-12 08:30 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from cornixforex:

ROC is ROC, who cares how much you paid in commissions or whatever other expenses.

Ahh yes the panglossian sentiments of daytraders of the dot com bubble.

Yeah expenses are irrelevant until: ..

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by cornix on 07-12-12 08:39 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

Ahh yes the panglossian sentiments of daytraders of the dot com bubble.

Yeah expenses are irrelevant until: ..

I started trading in 2005, never witnessed dotcom bubble, but witnessed outstanding volatility of late 2008, it was great.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 07-12-12 08:58 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from cornixforex:

I started trading in 2005, never witnessed dotcom bubble, but witnessed outstanding volatility of late 2008, it was great.

Whatever,

If you don't get my point , someday the market will make it to you.

Perhaps you'll be listening then.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by cornix on 07-12-12 09:23 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

Whatever,
If you don't get my point , someday the market will make it to you.

Perhaps you'll be listening then.

I really don't get you you are trying to explain. Of course we never stop to learn, but I traded in crappy vola of 2005-7, traded in insane vola of 2008, traded during the flash crash, trade now... thousands of trades.

Not to be arrogant, but what else can happen that I don't know about?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-22-12 08:28 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from cornixforex:

I really don't get you you are trying to explain. Of course we never stop to learn, but I traded in crappy vola of 2005-7, traded in insane vola of 2008, traded during the flash crash, trade now... thousands of trades.

Not to be arrogant, but what else can happen that I don't know about?

A string of losses and psychological delusion , backed by emotional trading.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by sheda on 07-22-12 12:22 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

A string of losses and psychological delusion , backed by emotional trading.

WoW yea, because that's not something a person has to overcome to become a profitable trader in the first place, some people are just so lucky they place there first few thousand trades without a lose and only have to deal with the above in the tenth year...

Posted by cornix on 07-22-12 01:12 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

A string of losses and psychological delusion , backed by emotional trading.

Oh, believe me, when you trade 8-15 hours every day for 7+ years, such cases happen many, many times (particularly in first years). And yes, these psychological issues are probably the most ugly of all problems a trader ever meets. But being able to deal with them is one of essential parts of the profession, so... to answer your question, yes, of course I cannot guarantee that I always will keep sanity, doubt anyone can be sure he/she would not go insane ever, but the more you practice correct way to trade, the smaller the chance of doing something wrong, consciously or unconsciously, because correct reflexes get imprinted in one's mind.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 07-22-12 01:16 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from sheda:

WoW yea, because that's not something a person has to overcome to become a profitable trader in the first place, some people are just so lucky they place there first few thousand trades without a lose and only have to deal with the above in the tenth year...

LOL, good one!

Indeed, what Ofxpro stated is rather a typical rookie trouble, which has to be overcome in order to become consistent, because it's extremely important to never hysterically react to losing streaks. They just happen, yes, that's an essential part of an odds game, but... I like to think of it as a great thing, because that's exactly what stops so many from becoming profitable in this game and makes it so profitable for those who are able to deal with this fact... Much like pro poker play vs. amateur play.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-23-12 08:16 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from sheda:

WoW yea, because that's not something a person has to overcome to become a profitable trader in the first place, some people are just so lucky they place there first few thousand trades without a lose and only have to deal with the above in the tenth year...

Seems like the talk of a zombie!E T 's top zombies do it all day long!

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 07-23-12 08:37 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

Seems like the talk of a zombie!E T 's top zombies do it all day long!

How do you think, should pro chess player or athlete worry about if they suddenly go insane after a couple of lost games and wreck their career by impulsive playing?

Or maybe should we worry all the time when driving that we can suddenly go amok and hit the big truck driving by the other side of the road?

From one side, yes, all these cases are possible, but from the other...

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by sheda on 07-23-12 10:12 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

Seems like the talk of a zombie!E T 's top zombies do it all day long!

Yes, pointing out that the bullshit you claim will bring a consistently profitable trader of several years down is something all traders had to overcome early on to in fact become consistently profitable in the first place is " ET zombie talk " Jesus, what trading monsters are you going to be warning him of appearing in his 6th year? A stop loss hit

????

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-23-12 10:43 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from sheda:

Yes, pointing out that the bullshit you claim will bring a consistently profitable trader of several years down is something all traders had to overcome early on to in fact become consistently profitable in the first place is " ET zombie talk " Jesus, what trading monsters are you going to be warning him of appearing in his 6th year? A stop loss hit ????

Have you ever traded a live account?

In trading you are your own worst enemy!

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 07-23-12 10:56 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

In trading you are your own worst enemy!

Definitely so. But in this game, you must play primarily offence and let the stop-loss (or some other way of risk management, built into a system) play defence for you.

It's a matter of focus. One shouldn't always focus on dangers of going impulsive or having a losing streak or whatever else like that. That would be like in my previous sample: driving a car and only thinking about possibility of an accident while doing so... Definitely NOT the ideal way to drive safely.

Focus on success, be logically aggressive, like pro athlete, pro poker player or ace fighter pilot. Focused aggression and deliberate practice makes you an ace, not fear of being defeated.

I got a bit emotional today and misplaced stop-loss (dragged it too early being greedy cause of 3 extra ticks of risk, duuuh), which resulted in a small loss instead of a good profit... Did it make me mad? Yes. I am very cruel to myself for making mistakes, especially such stupid kind of. Did I consider it a valuable lesson 10 minutes after and almost sure will trade BETTER from now on in my career, making everything to NOT repeat such a mistake and feel that pain? Also YES!

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by tradin4profits on 07-23-12 11:05 AM:

Daytrading is a skill where you can make boatloads of money..swingtrading is nothing but a fancy name for Buy and Hold until you crawl out of the hole you made for yourself. My grandmother can swingtrade blindfolded.

Posted by sheda on 07-23-12 11:07 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

Have you ever traded a live account?

In trading you are your own worst enemy!

What is with all this canned crap man? Its almost quoted straight out of a book....

When I first started trading I could not leave a trade in profit alone and closing out trades in the red felt ridiculously painful, way out of proportion for the situation, I found a way to over come it that worked for me, using a demo along side a live account, placing several trades on the demo then one on the live, then back to demo, increasing my live trades as I gained control over my emotions eventually trading 100% live with the emotional and behavioural control I desired..then came the losing streaks and changes of market conditions...followed by a study of the situation and finding what's needed to get me though this stage, if that was a change of approach or a refuelling of nerves to continue as am, what ever..find what works...do it....

BUT HAVE YOU EVER TRADED A LIVE ACCOUNT? HAD A LOSE! A LOSE!!! THE SKYS FALLING!!!!!!

Posted by cornix on 07-23-12 11:12 AM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from sheda:

BUT HAVE YOU EVER TRADED A LIVE ACCOUNT? HAD A LOSE! A LOSE!!! THE SKYS FALLING!!!!!!

LOL... Isn't it great that most have this kind of mentality for real?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ocean5 on 07-23-12 11:17 AM:

Statistic suggests that daytrading IS a losers game.

Posted by cornix on 07-23-12 11:27 AM:

Quote from ocean5:

Statistic suggests that daytrading IS a losers game.

Yea, no different from professional sports or other highly scalable profession. Taleb stated it long ago: scalable professions have smaller chance of success, because they are very demanding (though it's better to say they are scalable, because they are so demanding and consequently only a few of those who try, succeed at it).

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ocean5 on 07-23-12 12:02 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Yea, no different from professional sports or other highly scalable profession. Taleb stated it long ago: scalable professions have smaller chance of success, because they are very demanding (though it's better to say they are scalable, because they are so demanding and consequently only a few of those who try, succeed at it).

http://wallstreetwarzone.com/the-mo...-less-you-earn/

a good one

Posted by cornix on 07-23-12 12:04 PM:

Quote from ocean5:

http://wallstreetwarzone.com/the-mo...-less-you-earn/

a good one

I don't like these numbers. Would prefer to believe this game has 99% losers, otherwise it's not enough of a challenge and consequently, money to be made.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by tradin4profits on 07-23-12 01:33 PM:

Quote from ocean5:

http://wallstreetwarzone.com/the-mo...-less-you-earn/

a good one

That may be true but it doesnt say 100% are losers. Some of us do make money daytrading just like some of you make money buying and holding or as you like to call it "swingtrading" but I would guess there are more losers than winners in buying and holding too. I know I havent been daytrading for almost 13 years on a daily basis because I love losing money. I am not that stupid.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 07-23-12 01:34 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

I don't like these numbers. Would prefer to believe this game has 99% losers, otherwise it's not enough of a challenge and consequently, money to be made.

Warning, 82% of all day traders are losers! But deny it!

Moreover, never the twain shall meet. Each type of investor is as dogmatic as the other. DNA-based ideologies control each one, not rationality. Why? Their minds are made up in advance. Their opinions and beliefs were already cast in stone long ago. To each, facts about the other are totally irrelevant. Indeed, that was a given from the start, as I found out once again in our so-called debate. Here�s why: Just before this little debate we discovered some interesting new data from a BusinessWeek article.

The bottom line is simple�most traders are losers. Earlier, Forbes reported on a study that the �North American Securities Administrators found that 77% of day traders lost money.� Now comes more evidence, BusinessWeek was reporting that 82% of all day traders lose money. That data comes from a recent study by a couple professors at the University of Taipei working in conjunction with University of California behavioral finance professors Terry Odean and Brad Barber. And yes, that is the same Odean and Barber who researched 66,400 Wall Street investors a decade ago and concluded, �The more you trade the less you earn.�

I'm just trying to tell you no matter how good you pretend to be here, be aware of costs.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by sheda on 07-23-12 01:44 PM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

I'm just trying to tell you no matter how good you pretend to be here, be aware of costs.

And if he does make a decent profit on a consistent basis? Why are there so many who seem pathologically incapable of accepting this.

What is it with you guys, come on spit it out we can help you...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

In fact if you all have so much trouble with the concept WHY THE HELL ARE YOU HERE OR EVEN INVOLVED WITH TRADING IN ANY FORM WHAT SO EVER?

Posted by tradin4profits on 07-23-12 01:47 PM:

Quote from sheda:

And if he does make a decent profit on a consistent basis? Why are there so many who seem pathologically incapable of accepting this.

What is it with you guys, come on spit it out we can help you...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

In fact if you all have so much trouble with the concept WHY THE HELL ARE YOU HERE OR EVEN INVOLVED WITH TRADING IN ANY FORM WHAT SO EVER?

You are dealing with a bunch of Larry, Curly and Mo's on this board. If they can't do it ....no one can!

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-23-12 01:51 PM:

Quote from sheda:

And if he does make a decent profit on a consistent basis? Why are there so many who seem pathologically incapable of accepting this.

What is it with you guys, come on spit it out we can help you...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

In fact if you all have so much trouble with the concept WHY THE HELL ARE YOU HERE OR EVEN INVOLVED WITH TRADING IN ANY FORM WHAT SO EVER?

Do you know the costs involved in a zero sum game?

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-23-12 01:52 PM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

I'm just trying to tell you no matter how good you pretend to be here, be aware of costs.

Zombies don't trade for real , they are pretenders and actors.They don't understand spread.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by sheda on 07-23-12 01:53 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Do you know the costs involved in a zero sum game?

More canned crap blah blah blah

Posted by sheda on 07-23-12 01:54 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Zombies don't trade for real , they are pretenders and actors.They don't understand spread.

Oh noes the evil spread!! Noes!!!!

Posted by cornix on 07-23-12 01:59 PM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

I'm just trying to tell you no matter how good you pretend to be here, be aware of costs.

Sorry if I sounded like I want to pretend here... Didn't intend to look bold. I get your point about being in denial of reality, but one good thing about trading is: you can't cheat P&L. Either you make it or you lose it consistently, no other way...

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by PitchBlack on 07-23-12 02:02 PM:

Quote from ocean5:

Statistic suggests that daytrading IS a losers game.

Statistics don't matter. Your own account is the only important statistic that matters.

I have started several companies in my life and my statistics were always better than the average branch statistics.

Many times people asked: if what you want to do would work, others would have done it before you.

Many years later they realize that their statement was wrong.

If personal abilities are excellent you can beat any statistic in any branch.

Even in the zero sum game of daytrading.

Never say: if others cannot... I cannot....
And never say: if I cannot.... others cannot too....

Posted by cornix on 07-23-12 02:04 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Do you know the costs involved in a zero sum game?

Costs are not a problem as long as you overcome them... Only thing which matters is the bottom line. Some markets may have huge deal costs but exceptionally good volatility, which allows to easily pay for business expenses (costs and losses) and come out ahead.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 07-23-12 02:48 PM:

Quote from tradin4profits:

Daytrading is a skill where you can make boatloads of money..1)swingtrading is nothing but a fancy name for Buy and Hold until you crawl out of the hole you made for yourself. 2)My grandmother can swingtrade blindfolded.

1) Wow for someone who lauds day trading you sure have a lot of contempt for swing trading.

2) your grandmother wouldn't happen to be a chimp would she?
http://wallstreetwarzone.com/the-mo...-less-you-earn/

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by ExchangeBonds on 07-23-12 03:07 PM:

Not that I agree with Oilfxpro a lot, but commissions and exchange fees and the spread are major factors in limiting one's profitability. They are a major hurdle in being profitable for day traders. If you don't track those costs, I think you would be surprised what it adds up to. I've personally paid over 10k in commission/fees, and I'm nowhere near a high volume trader. The reason I know exactly how much I've paid is Crossland keeps track of it on their webpage for customers, which is something I was glad they added. Gives you a new perspective of things imo.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-24-12 02:30 AM:

its funny.. its so clear who is burnt up about the fact that they can't find an edge or just wanna give up on it... They now have reasons like "you compete with market makers etc.. etc.." but obviously there are people that have clearly made money here... its totally possible but not for the week of hand or heart...
i haven't done well in FX i've done well in options.. i've often times wanted to combine the two... i love OPTIONS.. i can be wrong so much more and make money.. its ok to be wrong as long as your very quick at knowing it! and with options i could be way off and still not lose money, or i could have been somewhat off and still made money.. with direction FX trading if your off about direction you lose money in a linear fashion! something i haven't mastered!

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-28-12 06:47 AM:

I finally found a robust day trading/scalping system , which is consistently profitable with low drawdowns.

It relies on entry price going above two confirmed supports or price going below two confirmed resistance .Confirmed resistance is where on two previous supports have become resistance and price falls below or two previous resistance have become support and price goes above.

It is a one minute system with stops of 12 pips and exits are reverse of entry rules.

It can fail in ranging markets but is operated with another ranging system in ranging markets.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Xspurt on 07-28-12 07:23 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

I finally found a robust day trading/scalping system , which is consistently profitable with low drawdowns.

It relies on entry price going above two confirmed supports or price going below two confirmed resistance .Confirmed resistance is where on two previous supports have become resistance and price falls below or two previous resistance have become support and price goes above.

It is a one minute system with stops of 12 pips and exits are reverse of entry rules.

It can fail in ranging markets but is operated with another ranging system in ranging markets.

Good luck, and I mean that. I've never seen a system that over the long term didn't self destruct. I used to get emails from a broker who monitored a top list and it was interesting to see the way a system would do well for years but then blow up. He tried to keep investors in the top 5 but needed to change systems every now and then as something would go wrong with a top performer.

The problem is when they go wrong you don't know if it is just a major draw down that is about turn into a super profit run or if it has failed. Systems are no different from gambling as they are attempting a low level short cut to learning the how-to of professional trading and consequently they get blind sided. There isn't a anything that makes up for learning how to trade and without real trading knowledge you won't understand why a system is failing and if it is dead or can be tweaked.

This is perfect way to come back back and say day trading is a losers game when this is really a losers approach. I hope you are the first to prove me wrong and find the perfect system that can cope with a laundry list of political and economic events the world has never had to deal with before now.

Oh and please let me know if you ever find how signals on a daily or weekly chart differ from a 1 min chart.

__________________
Xspurt

Posted by ocean5 on 07-28-12 07:34 AM:

Quote from Xspurt:

Good luck, and I mean that. I've never seen a system that over the long term didn't self destruct. I used to get emails from a broker who monitored a top list and it was interesting to see the way a system would do well for years but then blow up. He tried to keep investors in the top 5 but needed to change systems every now and then as something would go wrong with a top performer.

The problem is when they go wrong you don't know if it is just a major draw down that is about turn into a super profit run or if it has failed. Systems are no different from gambling as they are attempting a low level short cut to learning the how-to of professional trading and consequently they get blind sided. There isn't a anything that makes up for learning how to trade and without real trading knowledge you won't understand why a system is failing and if it is dead or can be tweaked.

This is perfect way to come back back and say day trading is a losers game when this is really a losers approach. I hope you are the first to prove me wrong and find the perfect system that can cope with a laundry list of political and economic events the world has never had to deal with before now.

Oh and please let me know if you ever find how signals on a daily or weekly chart differ from a 1 min chart.

Do you think HFT systems use stop loss?

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-28-12 07:52 AM:

Quote from ocean5:

Do you think HFT systems use stop loss?

nothing beats a great sense of intution.. NOTHING marks on last weeks chart mean something different then this weeks chart so on and so on..

Posted by ocean5 on 07-28-12 08:04 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

nothing beats a great sense of intution....

No thank you,i wouldn`t go live with that...

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-28-12 08:08 AM:

Quote from Xspurt:

Good luck, and I mean that. I've never seen a system that over the long term didn't self destruct. I used to get emails from a broker who monitored a top list and it was interesting to see the way a system would do well for years but then blow up. He tried to keep investors in the top 5 but needed to change systems every now and then as something would go wrong with a top performer.

The problem is when they go wrong you don't know if it is just a major draw down that is about turn into a super profit run or if it has failed. Systems are no different from gambling as they are attempting a low level short cut to learning the how-to of professional trading and consequently they get blind sided. There isn't a anything that makes up for learning how to trade and without real trading knowledge you won't understand why a system is failing and if it is dead or can be tweaked.

This is perfect way to come back back and say day trading is a losers game when this is really a losers approach. I hope you are the first to prove me wrong and find the perfect system that can cope with a laundry list of political and economic events the world has never had to deal with before now.

Oh and please let me know if you ever find how signals on a daily or weekly chart differ from a 1 min chart.

In a worst case scenario , our position sizing can tolerate upto 50 losing trades in a row on long trades and another 50 losers on short trades, the average profit with 70 % hit rate is 50 to 100 pips daily , and a drawdown of 20 % , and a 100 % annual return without compounding.

Realistically , our expected drawdown is 3% , hit rate of around 60 % plus , and profit of 350 % with compounding .

It is not just a system , context is applied with strict stops and a unique position sizing which allows for many losers when markets become irrational longer than you and I can remain solvent..This is not a short cut to learning how to trade , as knowledge of many varied systems and methods are also applied .Most systems fail , but this system is doing well trading the euro/usd when we have the euro crisis.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-28-12 08:09 AM:

Quote from ocean5:

No thank you,i wouldn`t go live with that...

any system developed to automatically trade doesn't have intutition?. but the development of that system had the intuition of the trader developing it no? you don't come up with this marks on the chart just from darts on a dartbooard? no i don't think so i just like discretionary trading.. mechanical automatic trading seems so type A personality.. haha idk.. just my thoughts..
i have a plan of action.. a position size, goals stratigies... but i like the idea of developing my sense of intuition.. instead of letting some programmed trading system send me to my doom . although i have messed around with genetic algos to come up with signals.. i never had much sucess with getting the ratios needed to have a decent system..

Posted by Wide Tailz on 07-28-12 08:23 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

I finally found a robust day trading/scalping system , which is consistently profitable with low drawdowns.

It relies on entry price going above two confirmed supports or price going below two confirmed resistance .

What a shocking revelation. Who knew such a thing was possible?

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-28-12 08:35 AM:

Quote from Wide Tailz:

What a shocking revelation. Who knew such a thing was possible?

like your name wide tailz... probability distrobuter haha

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-28-12 08:36 AM:

you know i never looked into scalping.. do you sit there with the market depth window open popping away at hot keys to buy and sell literally all day?

Posted by ocean5 on 07-28-12 08:37 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

any system developed to automatically trade doesn't have intutition?. but the development of that system had the intuition of the trader developing it no? you don't come up with this marks on the chart just from darts on a dartbooard? no i don't think so i just like discretionary trading.. mechanical automatic trading seems so type A personality.. haha idk.. just my thoughts..
i have a plan of action.. a position size, goals stratigies... but i like the idea of developing my sense of intuition.. instead of letting some programmed trading system send me to my doom . although i have messed around with genetic algos to come up with signals.. i never had much sucess with getting the ratios needed to have a decent system..

�� ,� �� ...

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-28-12 08:40 AM:

bottom line is i probably need to mess with it more.. i've never got it to work for me well.. all the necessary ratios to be a good strategy i could not get up to commonly acceptable levels...

Posted by Xspurt on 07-28-12 09:02 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

In a worst case scenario , our position sizing can tolerate upto 50 losing trades in a row on long trades and another 50 losers on short trades, the average profit with 70 % hit rate is 50 to 100 pips daily , and a drawdown of 20 % , and a 100 % annual return without compounding.

Realistically , our expected drawdown is 3% , hit rate of around 60 % plus , and profit of 350 % with compounding .

It is not just a system , context is applied with strict stops and a unique position sizing which allows for many losers when markets become irrational longer than you and I can remain solvent..This is not a short cut to learning how to trade , as knowledge of many varied systems and methods are also applied .Most systems fail , but this system is doing well trading the euro/usd when we have the euro crisis.

Good to hear. All systems rely on MM to make them survive but when max draw downs are exceeded the question will be do you hang in there? Neke is an example of a winning approach that is suffering so what should he do? There are no shortage of opinions on ET but it had great consecutive years profit.

You might have the winning system and time will tell. If it isn't, do you have the tools to know why and what to do? All mechanical systems that I have seen in almost 30 yrs have a flaw, but that doesn't mean no one can come up with one that works, it just makes it very unlikely.

Systems have a great appeal. You can learn them in very little time and they offer success on a plate and always with a unique twist that makes then better than all the ones that failed: that twist is always MM.

I used to be a pro gambler and I started out with a very successful system that I paid a pro gambler to teach me. Then I wanted to understand the game and that was when I discovered control came from knowing how the market flows. Trading is no different: it is a game of fakes and shark pools and runs but in time they change the game and that is when mechanical systems are shown to be curve fitted.

Btw a system like you quote will sell for tens of millions to the banks. Right now you can get IB's on ET who will get you accredited investors wanting to make 100 to 350% pa with a 3% draw down. There is one problem though, none of them will be interested and either their experience or yours is lacking something and the thread heading makes me think it might be you.

If you prove me wrong you will offer hope to millions of robot and system traders who paid a few bucks to get rich. Trading is a huge time consuming learning curve and what you are doing is part of the dues we must all pay so it is not intended as criticism. I was in those shoes at one time.

__________________
Xspurt

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-28-12 09:13 AM:

Quote from Xspurt:

Good to hear. All systems rely on MM to make them survive but when max draw downs are exceeded the question will be do you hang in there?

All mechanical systems that I have seen in almost 30 yrs have a flaw, but that doesn't mean no one can come up with one that works, it just makes it very unlikely.

I used to be a pro gambler and I started out with a very successful system that I paid a pro gambler to teach me. Then I wanted to understand the game and that was when I discovered control came from knowing how the market flows. Trading is no different: it is a game of fakes and shark pools and runs but in time they change the game and that is when mechanical systems are shown to be curve fitted.

Trading is a huge time consuming learning curve and what you are doing is part of the dues we must all pay so it is not intended as criticism. I was in those shoes at one time.

i love all the above comments you made... fakes and shark pools.. i love that! haha They are all gaming you and overtime your curve fitted system gets arbitraged and you get blasted.. especially with large sums of money being traded.. so eloquently put...

Posted by Xspurt on 07-28-12 09:47 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

i love all the above comments you made... fakes and shark pools.. i love that! haha They are all gaming you and overtime your curve fitted system gets arbitraged and you get blasted.. especially with large sums of money being traded.. so eloquently put...

A friend bought a champion greyhound for a lot of money. Before every race he fed it 6 Mars bars and it went in a few races as the favorite and then the odds widened after that. When the odds were high the dog was set up to win and he hit the market hard.

In horse racing a trainer will run a horse at the wrong weight in the wrong ground conditions over the wrong distance to get the odds out and then when the horse is at it's peak the market is hit.It only take a combination of 7 lbs and one extra length and a slight ground change to put a horse off it's stride - tiny tells that most punters have no idea about.

Big Pharma tell us we are going to die of bird flu and sell a zillion vaccines to the gov that we pay for. Before that the EO's buy their own shares. There are more than 130,000 fines against big Pharma yet the public trust them with their lives.

The banks and big brokers are infamous for ripping off their clients and Obama and AL Gore were up to their necks in setting up a carbon trading exchange so guess what's coming.

Money and greed and gaming the public happens at all levels: always did and always will. In the US the elected representatives are allowed to use insider information to trade, something that is illegal elsewhere and having a set of rules for leaders and a different set for the public makes it feel honest to shaft the public as much as you can.

We used to trade on the back of the Ax on Lev 2 until he saw the piggybacking so then he started gaming. Now it is HFT's that are gaming each other. It is always a game and the rules are unfair and money, greed and sharks go together.

Do they conspire? You better believe it! Can a mechanical system cope with that? Not that I have seen so the fall back is always the MM and sooner or later the same thing as Neke is struggling with happens. I have seen pro traders and gamblers go out of business because for years a superficial understanding was all they needed but when things go pear shaped they do not possess the necessary tools or skill set to investigate what is causing the change in their affairs.

Honestly I hope Oily has got it right but from experience I thought I'd say, at least use the time to learn how to trade the flow of the market.

__________________
Xspurt

Posted by tradin4profits on 07-28-12 01:47 PM:

EXSPURT say's ........"A friend bought a champion greyhound for a lot of money. Before every race he fed it 6 Mars bars and it went in a few races as the favorite and then the odds widened after that. When the odds were high the dog was set up to win and he hit the market hard"

I bet the odds did widen, the poor dog probably died. Giving chocolate to a dog or any animal is like poisoning it. Their bodies cannot digest chocolate and it becomes poison to an animal and will kill it. your freind doesnt seem to be be very bright , or maybe he is just greedy beyond stupidity and doesnt care about the animal!

Posted by sheda on 07-28-12 02:10 PM:

I finally found a robust day trading/scalping system , which is consistently profitable with low drawdowns

Cool! I guess you were wrong about day trading then, was that the same system that appeared on the net under your name in 2007 by any chance?

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-28-12 02:21 PM:

Quote from sheda:

Cool! I guess you were wrong about day trading then, was that the same system that appeared on the net under your name in 2007 by any chance?

I just devised it recently based on my experiences , after trying out and live testing of hundreds of systems.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by notebookled on 07-28-12 02:29 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital.

A few internet marketeers are selling motoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220707

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220676

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218977

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220513

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218160

LOL ... there are a lot of succesfull prop trader, they are daytrader.

"it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc."

because as a daytrader it is impossible to move thats much money as they do! for institutionals daytrader just moves smal amounts (lol smale like a few million$)

Posted by tradegeologist on 07-28-12 02:46 PM:

trading is more about controlling emotions and managing the money properly.
Keep the losses small,
let your profits run,
trade the trend,
have defined entry and exit criteria,
and forget about success ratio of your method.

These are the basic things that all of us know from day one of our trading but only 5-10% traders follow this, and those 10% are the rich guys who take home rest 90% of the money

keep it simple people
follow the basics, get your emotions out of it, and definitely you will experience better trading. It helped me, maybe helps you too

have a nice trading week ahead.

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-28-12 02:50 PM:

Quote from Xspurt:

Good to hear. All systems rely on MM to make them survive but when max draw downs are exceeded the question will be do you hang in there? Neke is an example of a winning approach that is suffering so what should he do? There are no shortage of opinions on ET but it had great consecutive years profit.

You might have the winning system and time will tell. If it isn't, do you have the tools to know why and what to do? All mechanical systems that I have seen in almost 30 yrs have a flaw, but that doesn't mean no one can come up with one that works, it just makes it very unlikely.

Systems have a great appeal. You can learn them in very little time and they offer success on a plate and always with a unique twist that makes then better than all the ones that failed: that twist is always MM.

I used to be a pro gambler and I started out with a very successful system that I paid a pro gambler to teach me. Then I wanted to understand the game and that was when I discovered control came from knowing how the market flows. Trading is no different: it is a game of fakes and shark pools and runs but in time they change the game and that is when mechanical systems are shown to be curve fitted.

Btw a system like you quote will sell for tens of millions to the banks. Right now you can get IB's on ET who will get you accredited investors wanting to make 100 to 350% pa with a 3% draw down. There is one problem though, none of them will be interested and either their experience or yours is lacking something and the thread heading makes me think it might be you.

If you prove me wrong you will offer hope to millions of robot and system traders who paid a few bucks to get rich. Trading is a huge time consuming learning curve and what you are doing is part of the dues we must all pay so it is not intended as criticism. I was in those shoes at one time.

I have spent many years devising profitable systems .I devised an automated package of 44 different systems combined , the systems returns fell to a meagre 15 % in the last 3 years from 23 % over last 10 years. .The bucket shops with their requotes is where one could trade these automated systems , it is no good to trade with these bucket shops , so I stopped using them.

Based on my huge experience , I have devised a system which should and would work intraday .These systems run profits and cut losses.To trade the system , one has to be very quick to exit and calm enough to run profits , we achieved this by running two positions ,one for running profits and one for a small lock in.The system trades an average of 10 to 15 trades a day ,and relies on one or two trades to make the profit.The high number of trades ,the quick exits and re-entries ensure the fakes don't catch us out.I have seen enough fakes designed to shark feed trend traders.

We are as quick as the sharks and we are changing direction and going with the strength and market flow , above all we are following the sharks with quick exit strategy.

I devised the system based on my previous experience and knowledge of the markets.

I have seen the system make profit all week every day , where most other systems have failed.The more people follow the system , the more sharks get eaten , one hedge fund trader was more worried about the army of little guys slaughtering them.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 07-28-12 02:53 PM:

Quote from tradin4profits:

EXSPURT say's ........"A friend bought a champion greyhound for a lot of money. Before every race he fed it 6 Mars bars and it went in a few races as the favorite and then the odds widened after that. When the odds were high the dog was set up to win and he hit the market hard"

I bet the odds did widen, the poor dog probably died. Giving chocolate to a dog or any animal is like poisoning it. Their bodies cannot digest chocolate and it becomes poison to an animal and will kill it. your freind doesnt seem to be be very bright , or maybe he is just greedy beyond stupidity and doesnt care about the animal!

People get all stupid about chocolate killing dogs. It's like us eating caffeine and yes it most certainly can kill you but people love it can't go without it yet a 10 gram dose (depending on your weight )is likely to kill you .

So yeah chocolate is safe for dogs in small doses and they love it just like we love caffeine in the morning to get going.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by sheda on 07-28-12 03:08 PM:

I just devised it recently based on my experiences , after trying out and live testing of hundreds of systems

I am pleased you finally reached the promised land.

Posted by ssss on 07-28-12 07:19 PM:

Retail have not any advantage

Spread
#####

Compare to casino ....

In game where gambler is dissadvantaged (lower as 50 :50)

best chance to win -low quantities (until 3-4 ) bet's with great risk

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-28-12 07:24 PM:

Quote from Xspurt:

Money and greed and gaming the public happens at all levels: always did and always will. In the US the elected representatives are allowed to use insider information to trade, something that is illegal elsewhere and having a set of rules for leaders and a different set for the public makes it feel honest to shaft the public as much as you can.

They only just recently changed the law on that.. Congress can't insider trade anymore

Posted by sheda on 07-28-12 07:25 PM:

Quote from ssss:

Retail have not any advantage

Spread
#####

Compare to casino ....

Come again?

Posted by ssss on 07-28-12 07:34 PM:

You can check trading record's/report's in real money competitons

Each month some 20 000 -50 000 competitors

One result 12 000 % per month + 25000 $ price money

from 1296 $ until 166266$ in one month + 25000 $ price money

http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micr...dereport1st.pdf

some 7-8 result's in range 2000 -3000 %

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king...er-archive.html

But it is only game theory
###################

Lotto ...

Juni 2012 1809 % trading record

http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micr...dereport1st.pdf

Posted by marketsurfer on 07-28-12 07:39 PM:

Quote from ssss:

You can check trading record's/report's in real money competitons

Each month some 20 000 -50 000 competitors

One result 12 000 % per month + 25000 $ price money

from 1296 $ until 166266$ in one month + 25000 $ price money

http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micr...dereport1st.pdf

some 7-8 result's in range 2000 -3000 %

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king...er-archive.html

But it is only game theory
###################

Lotto ...

Juni 2012 1809 % trading record

http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micr...dereport1st.pdf

No, it's survivor bias.

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-29-12 06:10 AM:

Quote from ssss:

Retail have not any advantage

Spread
#####

Compare to casino ....

In game where gambler is dissadvantaged (lower as 50 :50)

best chance to win -low quantities (until 3-4 ) bet's with great risk

If you can achieve a good hit rate of 60 to 80 % , by being very selective on trade entries and exits , there is the answer of the advantage of trader.Out of potential 50 entries , take 10 to 15 , 5 will lose money , another 7 will make enough to recover those losses , the market will give 2 trades for the profit , on average a profit of about 50 pips for 24 hour session.

I found most intraday entries almost 98 % , had no more than 50 % chance of a profit and risk reward of < than 1 .I take 20 % of the entries and hope 2 % will make up the profits , that is 2 out of 10 to 15 trades ,most of the trades make no money overall.It is frustrating to first get 8 losing trades , until you catch that winning trade at the end of the day.

Some days 10 trades make nothing overall , just one trades makes it worthwhile.This one large move will give the profits.Trend trading /breakout trading with wide stops is the same , in that the few winners make all the profit, the only problem with wide stops is you need bigger profits and huge trends and that is very rare.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Xspurt on 07-29-12 07:08 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

They only just recently changed the law on that.. Congress can't insider trade anymore

Thanks for the update CD

__________________
Xspurt

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-29-12 07:15 AM:

yep... imagine how long they were just banking

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/u...y-congress.html

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-29-12 07:38 AM:

As a retail trader , spread of 1 pip is easily covered by trading these large moves .

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-29-12 07:41 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

As a retail trader , spread of 1 pip is easily covered by trading these large moves .

how long have you been making money at trading currency? i'm not a jerk looking to be a jerk i'm just curious.. i've never met anyone that was a professional at trading currency that had a long track record of doing well doing it.. i'm looking to trade options on the euro

Posted by Xspurt on 07-29-12 10:43 AM:

oops CD! Seems they are safe to continue the practice...

http://news.yahoo.com/congressional...-222100811.html

__________________
Xspurt

Posted by ssss on 07-29-12 11:06 AM:

oilfxpro

Registered: Oct 2007
Posts: 1038

wrote ...

If you can achieve a good hit rate of 60 to 80 % ,
#################################

Don Quixote ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EXYcG9f3Uo

Without any scientific matter ...
------------------------------------

If bet = potencial profit ,long term hit rate = 50 %
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Example

Take case of small deviation and (!) no bid ask spread

SPY price = 139 , Retail client (Gambler) is short

with Target 138
Stop loss 140

Profit = Loss 1:1

After 10 000 attempts your hit rate with very great chance would near 50 % ( some 50.02 % or 49.98 %)

...........

oilfxpro

Registered: Oct 2007
Posts: 1038

wrote ...

by being very selective on trade entries and exits , there is the answer of the advantage of trader.Out of potential 50 entries , take 10 to 15 , 5 will lose money , another 7 will make enough to recover those losses , the market will give 2 trades for the profit , on average a profit of about 50 pips for 24 hour session.

I found most intraday entries almost 98 % , had no more than 50 % chance of a profit and risk reward of < than 1 .I take 20 % of the entries and hope 2 % will make up the profits , that is 2 out of 10 to 15 trades ,most of the trades make no money overall.It is frustrating to first get 8 losing trades , until you catch that winning trade at the end of the day.

Some days 10 trades make nothing overall , just one trades makes it worthwhile.This one large move will give the profits.Trend trading /breakout trading with wide stops is the same , in that the few winners make all the profit, the only problem with wide stops is you need bigger profits and huge trends and that is very rare.

Posted by ssss on 07-29-12 11:19 AM:

Statistic

Frankfurt Stock exchange Paper money 12 week contest

http://handelsblatt.boerse-frankfur...CA0D1E257.web03

Rule -1 position not more as 10 % ,derivative not more as 10 % of Portofolio .Real time quote

15000 Competiror's

After 11 week`s
###################

only 33% in profit (5000 from 15000 )
####################

only 412 contestant`s from 15000 have profit more as 10%
only 95 contestant`s from 15000 have profit 30+ %
only 51 profit more as 50%
only 26 more as 75%
only 4 more as 300% (leader 860 %)

Posted by ssss on 07-29-12 11:43 AM:

You can check real money contest result

http://learncurrencytrading.com/Mic.../firstplace.pdf

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king...er-archive.html

3109 % in month calculated on 500$

17087 $
###########

(realy more as 3109 % -month started with some 336.75$ $)

It is second result from 3 years ,each month approx 20 000
-50 000 competitors ( All fxcm account`s with balanse more as 500
$ automatical entry )

Most of them loss

Most of the profit - only one movement GBP/JPY
----------------------------------------------------------------

with one great operation

All profit -only 3 operations

2 short ,1 -long GBP/JPY

100 000 GBP/JPY short 139.8 - 128.25

10 maj -20 maj 2010 + 12894$
------------------------------------------
40 000 GBP/JPY long 134.8 - 139.8
7-10 maj 2010 + 4*540 $
-------------------------------------------

10 000 GBP/JPY short 145.58 -130.42
26 april - 6 Maj +1711 $

Posted by ssss on 07-29-12 12:25 PM:

coleman hawkins think deep

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wv6GNVbgUK0

Posted by ssss on 07-29-12 02:56 PM:

October 2011

1. Canada - 12,725.31% Survey / Trade Report (.xls version)

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king...er-archive.html

http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micr...dereport1st.pdf

----------------------------------------------

Start Balanse - 1296 $
Ending Balanse -39745 $
Floating P/L -126481 $
Equity -166266 $
Month profit - 12,725.31% ( 128 time's )

1.aud/usd 3 oct 2011 Short 70000 -159$
0.96657 -0.96884
2. aud/usd 3 oct Long 70000 0.96870 -0.96658 -148 $
--------------------------------------------------
Balanse lower as 1000 $

3.aud/usd 3 oct short 80000 0.96656 -0.96370 +229 $
4.aud/usd 3 oct -4 oct ,short 100000 0.96341 -0.94387 +1937$
5. aud/usd 4 oct ,short 50000 0.95174 -0.94387 + 393 $
-------------------------------------------------------------

Balanse approx - 3548 $
...........................
6. aud/usd 4 oct 14.16 -15.31 long 200 000 0.94395 -0.94319 - 152 $
7. aud/usd 4 oct 15.31-16.12 short 200 000 0.94317 -0.94743 -852 $
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Balanse approx 2545 $

MOST IMPORTANT OPERATION -Multiple averaging UP AUD/USD
#################################################################

8.1 aud/usd 4 oct long 40000 16.12-18.15 0.94735 -0.94187 -219 $
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
20% of aud/usd position is closed with loss -219 $

Balanse approx -2325$
---------------------------------
8.2 . aud/usd 4 oct long 160 000 16.12 ---- 0.94735
31 oct 1.05290 +17248 $

80 % of AUD/USD ,which was open 4 oct 16.12
hold until end of the month with profit + 17248 $

-------------
8.3 - 8.xx

After that AUD/USD averaging up from 5 oct untill 27 oct
multiple time from 0.94735 untill 1.04754 and all closed by 1.05290
with profit 145 000 $
##############################

and after 27 october until 31 october 4 time aud/usd with loss -15000 $
------------------------------------------------------------------------
(open 1.07 -closed 1.0529 )

Summary 145000 -15000 $ = +130 000 $

+

9. eur/usd 5-9 oct long in 5 part's 210 000 1.33038-1.33895 +781 $
10.aud/usd 7-7 oct in 3 part's long 300 000 0.97564 -0.97735 +401 $
11. eur/usd 7 -9 oct long 20000 1.35139 -1.33898 -248 $
-------------------------------------------------------------------

12. eur/usd 10-14 oct long in 4 part 4*130 000 = 520 000

1.34139 -1.37863 +18300 $
#####################################

Posted by ssss on 07-29-12 03:36 PM:

China

3 result from 507 $ until 13024 $ 2461 %

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king...er-archive.html

http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micr...dereport1st.pdf

Equal story from 12500 $ of profit 10000$

from one operation in parts
###################

in this case short XAU/USD 4* 50

1713-1615

##############

All 3 best result's Fromn Canada,Poland ,China have one most profitable operation (in part's ,averaging up )

GBP/JPY AUD/USD or XAU/USD

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-29-12 06:35 PM:

Quote from ssss:

oilfxpro

Registered: Oct 2007
Posts: 1038

wrote ...

If bet = potencial profit ,long term hit rate = 50 %
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Example

Take case of small deviation and (!) no bid ask spread

SPY price = 139 , Retail client (Gambler) is short

with Target 138
Stop loss 140

Profit = Loss 1:1

After 10 000 attempts your hit rate with very great chance would near 50 % ( some 50.02 % or 49.98 %)

Are entry criteria for attempts same?Are each type of entry criteria backtestable with accuracy?Entry criteria include
trend retracement ,
below support,
below resistance
trend
trend on 1m ,5 m ,15m
trend on 1m ,5 m ,15m ,30 m ,1 hr ,4 hr
trendline factors
stochastics?
time of day of entry
counter trend?
momentum
volatility
low resistance or high resistance level?
low or key support
intermarket correlation in place?
other context readings?
bullish or bearish sentiment?
shark pool area?
stop loss?
volatility
reversal
breakout
spread 1 pip or 3 pips
slippage infliction platform/broker

Do you use a lousy broker/bucket shop called FXCM/REFCO , PFG , or another crook?-

Do your 50 %figures have any meaning if the above can not be back tested?

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by ssss on 07-29-12 07:04 PM:

SPY price = 139 , Retail client (Gambler) is short

with Target 138
Stop loss 140

Profit = Loss 1:1

After 10 000 attempts your hit rate with very great chance would near 50 % ( some 50.02 % or 49.98 %)

----------------------------
Quote from oilfxpro

...Are entry criteria for attempts same?Are each type of entry criteria backtestable with accuracy?Entry criteria include
trend retracement ,

Without any matter ...
########################

Market maker have advatage -spread
##########################

retail sector not
############

It is decisive advantage
###############

For existence one professional need 2000 -5000 retail operator
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

multiple hundred's VP by Goldman Sachs have salary
1 mln $ p.a.

multiple Senior Parner'S have salary 5 mln $ p.a.

... Entry/exit criteria based on different trading systems ,which
linked to economy theory

1. Adam Smit ,D.Ricardo and different Adepts
( Marschal ,Keynes , Friedman , Mjurdal )

2. Teaching Adam Smit based on Lokk doktrin

" Treatise to goverement "

3. Lokk on Bibel

No any scientific evidence ,as based on Religion
##################################

Each retail payed spread from start -that is
profit for Market maker's ( from GS,JPM &)

indepedent for direction
#################

Compare Stock ,future market with Casino or Lotto

Zero summ game
------------------------

Spread ,Broker and margin fees ,Tax

Posted by ssss on 07-29-12 07:14 PM:

Three shades - La Bayad�re

Paris -1992

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gac1q8bznQ

Posted by heypa on 07-29-12 07:16 PM:

Back to congressional insider trading.
They are slick.
They back door every restricting law.
How about family?
How many laws are there?
Needle in the hay stack.
Do we still know all the crap in the health care bill, now constitutional??
I think not.

Posted by ssss on 07-29-12 07:17 PM:

Roulette - Probability Theory Guide
#########################

Probability Theory Basics and Applications - Mathematics of Roulette

http://probability.infarom.ro/roulette.html

We call a simple bet a bet that is made through a unique placement of chips on the roulette table. The table below notes the winning probabilities for each category of simple bet, for both European and American roulette:

Simple bet

Probability (odds)
European roulette

Probability (odds)
American roulette

Payout

Straight Up

18/37 = 48.64% (1.0 : 1)

18/38 = 47.36% (1.1 : 1)

1 to 1

Even/Odd Bet

18/37 = 48.64% (1.0 : 1)
18/38 = 47.36% (1.1 : 1)

1 to 1

Low/High Bet

18/37 = 48.64% (1.0 : 1)
18/38 = 47.36% (1.1 : 1)

1 to 1

Let us denote by R the set of all roulette numbers. Any placement for a bet is then a subset of R, or an element of P (R). Denote by A the set of the groups of numbers from R allowed for a bet made through a unique placement. A has 154 elements.

For example, A (straight-up bet), A (split bet), A (corner bet), A (odd bet), A (the numbers 0 and 19 cannot be covered by an allowed unique placement).

We can define a simple bet as being a pair (A, S), where A and S is a real number.

A is the placement (the set of numbers covered by the bet) and S is the basic stake (the money amount in chips). Because each simple bet has a payout defined by the rules of roulette, we can also look at a simple bet as at a triple , where is a natural number (the coefficient of multiplication of the stake in case of winning), which is determined solely by A. We have that , according to the rules of roulette.

http://probability.infarom.ro/roulette.html

----------------------

In Roullete retail operator best chance by payement 1:1

48.64% ,lower as 50% ,no advantage

In trading retail operator best chance by payement 1:1

lower as 50% ,through spread ,broker and margin fees ,
tax

no advantage
--------------------------

Best strategy to win in game with no advantage

low quantities bets with high risk

Full in correlation with 3 example's above in thread (posting from ssss) Real money King of the Micro Contest

Each month some 50 000 attempts
For 3 Years more as 1 000 000 attempts

3 Best Month results 12700 %,3108% ,2462 % from Canada,Poland ,China -

all related to one operation (80 % of profit )
------------------------------------------

Movement of the pair's AUD/USD , GBP/JPY 1000 pips
or XAU/USD - 100$

Posted by heypa on 07-29-12 07:30 PM:

American. 1 in 38 play 1 in 35 pay. Long term you lose no matter how you manipulate your bet. Your bet size is limited.
Easy to see in roulette or any casino game since they are relatively simple to figure. Harder to figure in trading since we can horrendously complicate any trading method. Still the sum of the parts.

Posted by ssss on 07-29-12 07:36 PM:

heypa

... Harder to figure in trading since we can horrendously complicate any trading method. Still the sum of the parts.

##################################

99.9% of the all trading books stated

that long term SPY/ESU would up long -term

....

" The War is mother of all things " -Heraklit

The Day After (Attack Segment)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VG2aJyIFrA

Author of posting support Heraklit point of view ...

Posted by ssss on 07-29-12 07:40 PM:

heypa wrote -

Harder to figure in trading since we can horrendously complicate any trading method. Still the sum of the parts.

-------------------
...
Pay spread ,broker and margin fees ,tax

Each professional can exist on expense of 2000 -5000 retail operators

Author of posting point of view -retail have not any advantage
##########################################

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-29-12 07:46 PM:

The 45,000 reported congressional financial transactions from 2007 to 2010 totaled anywhere from $85 to $218 million from 323 companies registered to lobby before Congress. One of every eight transactions was directly tied to imminent legislation.

Sadly, the current congressional ethics guidelines shield them from any accusations of insider trading, but the silver lining is having the spotlight shone on the considerable and unfair investment advantages Congress enjoys over the people whose interests they are elected to serve.

Their shady dealings weren't against the law, but it certainly wouldn't have been against common decency to help their constituents better weather the economic crisis they knew was coming with an inside tip.

This by no means surprises me... i just forgot for a second that the house always wins! haha it was just a pony show to get the public off their back..

Posted by ssss on 07-29-12 08:03 PM:

SWANILDA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUOWUjM4B_0

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-29-12 08:04 PM:

Quote from ssss:

SWANILDA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUOWUjM4B_0

OK???? haha

Posted by Xspurt on 07-29-12 08:27 PM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

The 45,000 reported congressional financial transactions from 2007 to 2010 totaled anywhere from $85 to $218 million from 323 companies registered to lobby before Congress. One of every eight transactions was directly tied to imminent legislation.

Sadly, the current congressional ethics guidelines shield them from any accusations of insider trading, but the silver lining is having the spotlight shone on the considerable and unfair investment advantages Congress enjoys over the people whose interests they are elected to serve.

Their shady dealings weren't against the law, but it certainly wouldn't have been against common decency to help their constituents better weather the economic crisis they knew was coming with an inside tip.

This by no means surprises me... i just forgot for a second that the house always wins! haha it was just a pony show to get the public off their back..

Yip, the show must go on!

__________________
Xspurt

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-30-12 06:21 AM:

Quote from ssss:

SPY price = 139 , Retail client (Gambler) is short

with Target 138
Stop loss 140

Profit = Loss 1:1

After 10 000 attempts your hit rate with very great chance would near 50 % ( some 50.02 % or 49.98 %)

----------------------------
Quote from oilfxpro

...Are entry criteria for attempts same?Are each type of entry criteria backtestable with accuracy?Entry criteria include
trend retracement ,

Without any matter ...
########################

Market maker have advatage -spread
##########################

retail sector not
############

It is decisive advantage
###############

For existence one professional need 2000 -5000 retail operator
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

multiple hundred's VP by Goldman Sachs have salary
1 mln $ p.a.

multiple Senior Parner'S have salary 5 mln $ p.a.

... Entry/exit criteria based on different trading systems ,which
linked to economy theory

1. Adam Smit ,D.Ricardo and different Adepts
( Marschal ,Keynes , Friedman , Mjurdal )

2. Teaching Adam Smit based on Lokk doktrin

" Treatise to goverement "

3. Lokk on Bibel

No any scientific evidence ,as based on Religion
##################################

Each retail payed spread from start -that is
profit for Market maker's ( from GS,JPM &)

indepedent for direction
#################

Compare Stock ,future market with Casino or Lotto

Zero summ game
------------------------

Spread ,Broker and margin fees ,Tax

Your post is F O S.

A stop of 12 and a target of 8 points will give a hit rate of approximately 67 % , how you trade manage above will affect your profitability.This 67 % hit rate can be improved by being selective on trade entries.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by ocean5 on 07-30-12 06:33 AM:

I've never seen so many intelligent people in my life,before I signed up to ET!!!

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 07:21 AM:

Quote from ocean5:

I've never seen so many intelligent people in my life,before I signed up to ET!!!

Alternatively gifted you mean?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-30-12 07:26 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Alternatively gifted you mean?

E T intellectuals!

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 07:30 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

E T intellectuals!

Pseudo. Intellectuals.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 07:34 AM:

ssss's premise is that trades performed by traders are random. In this case of course this game is a negative sum one.

But who said, that entries can only be random and different edges cannot be gained by performing analysis of various aspects of markets?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ocean5 on 07-30-12 07:36 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Alternatively gifted you mean?

Alternatively oriented,I mean...

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-30-12 07:41 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

ssss's premise is that trades performed by traders are random. In this case of course this game is a negative sum one.

But who said, that entries can only be random and different edges cannot be gained by performing analysis of various aspects of markets?

Patterns in Randomness.. the more you fall back on the fact that everything is random.. the more likely you are to succeed in my opinion.. but i'm just an ET retard... why do you think we all run our strategies through monte carlo simulations.. ? thats throwing pure randomness at your strategy... now why would we do that? haha

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 07:49 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

Patterns in Randomness.. the more you fall back on the fact that everything is random.. the more likely you are to succeed in my opinion.. but i'm just an ET retard... why do you think we all run our strategies through monte carlo simulations.. ? thats throwing pure randomness at your strategy... now why would we do that? haha

Who are "we all"?

The most successful traders I have ever known don't "test" anything at all, they just trade it, based on their experience with some (only the absolutely required minimum) money management and analytical criteria to define risk/entry/exit etc.

And if it was random, there would be no edge to extract. It is random at times, at times it is not, for some bright people it is not for the most of the time...

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-30-12 08:26 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Who are "we all"?

The most successful traders I have ever known don't "test" anything at all, they just trade it, based on their experience with some (only the absolutely required minimum) money management and analytical criteria to define risk/entry/exit etc.

And if it was random, there would be no edge to extract. It is random at times, at times it is not, for some bright people it is not for the most of the time...

i actually agree with both my statement and your statement and yet i'm still withholding judgement on both.. haha.. I do believe just as in any business you can create an edge for yourself.. but i as well believe your better off attributing wins to luck sometimes and losses to your lack of skill.. somethings are just not predictable.. No model out there isn't curve fitted to the past in some way.. its not that we don't error its just like what you say.. risk to reward.. position size.. etc.. .

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 08:30 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

i actually agree with both my statement and your statement and yet i'm still withholding judgement on both.. haha.. I do believe just as in any business you can create an edge for yourself.. but i as well believe your better off attributing wins to luck sometimes and losses to your lack of skill.. somethings are just not predictable.. No model out there isn't curve fitted to the past in some way.. its not that we don't error its just like what you say.. risk to reward.. position size.. etc.. .

The best way to avoid curve fitting is just trade it, not discuss or "test it.

Real results will speak for themselves.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-30-12 08:48 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

The best way to avoid curve fitting is just trade it, not discuss or "test it.

Real results will speak for themselves.

well i'm discretionary trading like you.. obviously that couldn't apply to those mechanical traders out there.. they just let their automated trading systems rip..
to be honest.. i know all lies start like that haha.. jk but seriously.. i think i've done rather well considering... i'm not rich but i haven't blown up my account and i've been marginally profitable.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 09:47 AM:

cornixforex wrote

But who said, that entries can only be random and different edges cannot be gained by performing analysis of various aspects of markets?
##########################################

Trading record of 3 top performer's of real money contest through years ( approx 20 000 /50 000 per month * 36 month =
approx 1 000 000 attempts)

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king...er-archive.html

1. Canada - 12,725.31% October 2011

http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micr...dereport1st.pdf

approx .80 % of profit
one operation with averaging up AUD/USD movement 0.94-1.05

2. Poland - 3109.97% , May 2010

http://learncurrencytrading.com/Mic.../firstplace.pdf

approx. 80 % of profit
one operation with GBP/JPY movement 139.8 -128.25

3.China - 2464.12% , December 2011

http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micr...dereport1st.pdf

approx .80 % of profit

one operation in part's XAU/USD 1713-1615

It is very comparable with lotto
####################

or casino
######

one great operation ...

It is fortune ,not the analysis

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 09:49 AM:

Are these numbers supposed to impress me?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-30-12 09:51 AM:

He quoted you and said nothing

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 09:58 AM:

cdcaveman

Quote from cornixforex:

ssss's premise is that trades performed by traders are random. In this case of course this game is a negative sum one.

But who said, that entries can only be random and different edges cannot be gained by performing analysis of various aspects of markets?

Patterns in Randomness.. the more you fall back on the fact that everything is random..

###########

Napoleon ,Machiavelli and another ... stated about Fortune

1. Is possible to win game with dissadvantage ?

yes - exist limited quantities (approx 10+)
of Operator`s in lotto which won 50 mln $

2. How many operator's exist ,which loosed in lotto ?

--multiple 10 000 000

3. Calculate your chance ....

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-30-12 10:08 AM:

sorry your not clear i can tell which opinion your trying to side with

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 10:10 AM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1236

07-30-12 09:49 AM
Are these numbers supposed to impress me?

------------------

It is the best result with real money ,which author observed to date ...

12700 % = 128 time's in one month

Result is performed in Contest ,is public ,possibile controled from CFTC
and/or related national authority

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 10:11 AM:

Quote from ssss:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1236

07-30-12 09:49 AM
Are these numbers supposed to impress me?

------------------

It is the best result with real money ,which author observed to date ...

12700 % = 128 time's in one month

Result is performed in Contest ,is public ,possibile controled from CFTC
and/or related national authority

Meaningless figure without other parameters included, such as % risk per trade, # of trades to achieve that result etc.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 10:22 AM:

cornixforex

Are these numbers supposed to impress me?

------------------

It is the best result with real money ,which author observed to date ...

12700 % = 128 time's in one month

Result is performed in Contest ,is public ,possibile controled from CFTC
and/or related national authority

Meaningless figure without other parameters included, such as % risk per trade, # of trades to achieve that result etc.

###############

You must check trading record ...
####################
Maximum margin 400:1 -it is liquidation margin
Start balance 1296 %

Time of which operation ,position value - all present in record

http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micr...dereport1st.pdf

Example

first operation ,start balanse 1296$

3 oct 2011 ,0.23 short 70 000 AUD/USD 0.96657
1.41 close with 70 000 AUD/USD 0.96884 loss =-158.90 $

Summary First operation performed with low risk

Start balanse 1296$
Margin used 0.9688 *1000$:400 =242 $
free margin in time of position opening 1296 $- 242 $ = 1054$
stop loss AUD/USD 0.96884-0.96657 =0.0227

or approx 22.7 pip of AUD/USD ,or loss 158.9 $ for 70 000 AUD/USD

2 operation ...
3 operation ...
4 operation ...

&

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 10:32 AM:

For cornixforex

SHORT SUMMARY ( you can perform more detailed analysis)

October 2011

1. Canada - 12,725.31% Survey / Trade Report (.xls version)

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king...er-archive.html

http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micr...dereport1st.pdf

----------------------------------------------

Start Balanse - 1296 $
Ending Balanse -39745 $
Floating P/L -126481 $
Equity -166266 $
Month profit - 12,725.31% ( 128 time's )

1.aud/usd 3 oct 2011 Short 70000 -159$
0.96657 -0.96884
2. aud/usd 3 oct Long 70000 0.96870 -0.96658 -148 $
--------------------------------------------------
Balanse lower as 1000 $

3.aud/usd 3 oct short 80000 0.96656 -0.96370 +229 $
4.aud/usd 3 oct -4 oct ,short 100000 0.96341 -0.94387 +1937$
5. aud/usd 4 oct ,short 50000 0.95174 -0.94387 + 393 $
-------------------------------------------------------------

Balanse approx - 3548 $
...........................
6. aud/usd 4 oct 14.16 -15.31 long 200 000 0.94395 -0.94319 - 152 $
7. aud/usd 4 oct 15.31-16.12 short 200 000 0.94317 -0.94743 -852 $
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Balanse approx 2545 $

MOST IMPORTANT OPERATION -Multiple averaging UP AUD/USD
#################################################################

8.1 aud/usd 4 oct long 40000 16.12-18.15 0.94735 -0.94187 -219 $
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
20% of aud/usd position is closed with loss -219 $

Balanse approx -2325$
---------------------------------
8.2 . aud/usd 4 oct long 160 000 16.12 ---- 0.94735
31 oct 1.05290 +17248 $

80 % of AUD/USD ,which was open 4 oct 16.12
hold until end of the month with profit + 17248 $

-------------
8.3 - 8.xx

After that AUD/USD averaging up from 5 oct untill 27 oct
multiple time from 0.94735 untill 1.04754 and all closed by 1.05290
with profit 145 000 $
##############################

and after 27 october until 31 october 4 time aud/usd with loss -15000 $
------------------------------------------------------------------------
(open 1.07 -closed 1.0529 )

Summary 145000 -15000 $ = +130 000 $

+

9. eur/usd 5-9 oct long in 5 part's 210 000 1.33038-1.33895 +781 $
10.aud/usd 7-7 oct in 3 part's long 300 000 0.97564 -0.97735 +401 $
11. eur/usd 7 -9 oct long 20000 1.35139 -1.33898 -248 $
-------------------------------------------------------------------

12. eur/usd 10-14 oct long in 4 part 4*130 000 = 520 000

1.34139 -1.37863 +18300 $
#####################################

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 10:33 AM:

Just as I suspected... I called possible Euro short here today, well in advance of the actual move down: http://stocktwits.com/cornixforex

Was it taken on 400:1 margin it would yield about 100% yield by now in a couple of hours, not even days... Does it tell anyone how great trader I am?

Of course NOT!

This game is marathon, not sprint and furthermore not some lottery game (except for those who treat it like that and are, consequently just amateur gamblers, not professional speculators).

Those insane % winnings in contests have nothing to do with trading business.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 10:35 AM:

cornixforex

1.Those insane % winnings in contests have nothing to do with trading business.

##############

Business -it the task of professional's from Goldmans Sachs ,not retail
sector . the Goldman Sachs market -maker have advantage ,retail not

For retail it is gambling
#############

2.Just as I suspected... I called possible Euro short here today, well in advance of the actual move down: http://stocktwits.com/cornixforex

Was it taken on 400:1 margin it would yield about 100% yield by now in a couple of hours, not even days... Does it tell anyone how great trader I am?

You can reduce margin ... 10 time ,100 time's

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 10:36 AM:

Quote from ssss:

Those insane % winnings in contests have nothing to do with trading business.

##############

Business -it the task of professional's from Goldmans Sachs ,not retail
sector

For retail it is gambling
#############

Yes, it is. But there is gambling and there is gambling. Professional poker player gambles and drunk fish at the same table also gambles, while house gets the rake from both... Get the difference?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 10:39 AM:

.. Get the difference?

-----

Spread

If you gambler -spread/odds in casino against you
If you owner of casino -it is source of your profit ...

Equal in stock market ...

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 10:49 AM:

Quote from ssss:

.. Get the difference?

-----

Spread

If you gambler -spread/odds in casino against you
If you owner of casino -it is source of your profit ...

Equal in stock market ...

Wrong. It is equal to poker table, not roulette.

Reversed into a long trade, obviously pure luck...

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 11:20 AM:

cornixforex wrote

Wrong. It is equal to poker table, not roulette.

###########

?

Spread
###########

check 10-k by www.sec.gov from Goldman Sachs

Source of income/profit ...
############

you would find -Market maker activities ,not the poker bluff
#######################################

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 11:27 AM:

Do you have GS as your clearing firm or what?

Obviously it's GS pushing EURUSD one extra tick to hit your $100K notional size stop-loss order...

Get real. Stop justifying why you are losing and start to think over what you do wrong. There is no other way to succeed.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 11:59 AM:

cornixforex wrote -

Do you have GS as your clearing firm or what?

Obviously it's GS pushing EURUSD one extra tick to hit your $100K notional size stop-loss order...

Get real. Stop justifying why you are losing and start to think over what you do wrong. There is no other way to succeed.

#####################

1.Author is not losing money

Ground -Author would not send any cent to any company
---------------------------------------------------------------------
with exception price money ,which author win in
different paper moeny contest

Author is participant of mutiple paper money contest's

zero risk ,
#########

but not taxed (Germany law win in paper money = win in lotto -not taxed) price money
------------------------------------

2.cornixforex wrote -"...Get real. Stop justifying why you are losing and start to think over what you do wrong. There is no other way to succeed."

That is some art of primitive propaganda for mass
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Another example's of this "art"

"...Trading changed of my life"

" ... In my life i was not teached to be right ,but a make a money "

Last statement was present on PFG web site in 2011

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 12:04 PM:

Well, I have nothing against you making a living by winning $1000 in trading contests sometimes... Good luck!

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 12:12 PM:

cornixforex-Well, I have nothing against you making a living by winning $1000 in trading contests sometimes... Good luck!

----------------

Thanks .

Belov is last example of author win- 1785 euro price

Milstar in text of Frankfurter Stock Exchange -is the nick of author

http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/de/n...ist+alles+33620

Wochenbericht: Timing ist alles
Dass der richtige Zeitpunkt des Verkaufs mindestens so wichtig ist wie der des Kaufs, zeigen die Wochengewinner mit und ohne Hebel.

13. Juni 2012. FRANKFURT (B�rse Frankfurt). �Kehrtwende im richtigen Moment� titelt J�rg Hackhausen vom Handelsblatt

�ber den Wochengewinner Milstar,
----------------------------------

der bei einem DAX-Plus von gerade mal einem Prozent �ber 214 Prozent Rendite erwirtschaftet hat.

########
in USA

Author won 2000 $ ... from PFG ! ( in 2007) Contest MarketZAR

and received ! With assitance of Court of IOWA

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 12:22 PM:

At least I must say this is pretty creative way to exploit financial industry. Maybe not as a profession, but certainty as a hobby.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 02:00 PM:

cornixforex wrote -

Maybe not as a profession,
###############

It is can not be ...

Retail operator(=gambler) and professional in financial service
have different task's

Author meet professional derivative trader in he's life ,as example

L.Fisher by JPM , later he was CEO CSFB (in 40 yers old ) ,today work
for Rotshild ...

It is all different

Multiple VP until 30 years by GS received 1 mln $ p.a.
taxed

Best Price for 1 place in paper money contest with 15 000 -20 000 contestant's

some 50 000 -100 000 euro(Price was in Germany Jaguar XK ,Porsche S , Range Rover ,Jaguar XF )not taxed in Germany

Best Price for 1 place real money contest with 50 000 contestants 25 000 $ , Price moeny not taxed in Germany .Profit from operations taxed

But in real money contest 70-90 % of competitor's loose real money
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 02:02 PM:

Do you state that retail trading is impossible?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 02:11 PM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1244

07-30-12 02:02 PM
Do you state that retail trading is impossible?

######################

It is game ,where operator have dissadvantage

equal to Casino or Lotto

As stated before in Lotto exist 10 operators ,which won 50+ mln $ each

and *100 000 000 ,which are loosed small amount

Occasionaly some retail operators in FXCM real money contest would

win 2000 % per month and best 12700 %

10 persons for 1mln attempts in 3 years

and 90 % would have loss on account with 500$ -5000 $

Compare with 100 young professional by Goldman Sach's

28 years old , each year 1 mln $
#####################
5 year good - Senior Partner in 33 year
with 5 mln $ per a.

Different ...

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 02:14 PM:

What if some retail "operator" is consistently profitable for years and thousands of trades? Is it pure luck?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 02:33 PM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1245

07-30-12 02:14 PM
What if some retail "operator" is consistently profitable for years and thousands of trades? Is it pure luck?

######################

Where are statement's from SEC ,CFTC ,BAFIN ?

Without that your suggest without any matter
#################################

Sorry Sir

Author not interessed for this case of religion propaganda for mass ...
######################################

...Have not any relevant inforamtion about any lotto winner which won

1 attempt -10 mln $
and after that second time -10 mln $

Best results by Real money competitions FXCM
80% related to one great movement
##########################
-one operation
##########
(in parts, with averaging up &)

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 02:34 PM:

I am not trying to prove you anything here, just asking: what IF you met such a trader, saw 3rd party verified track record or witnessed many trades called live? Would you say he/she just got lucky to have a streak of thousands of trades making him/her decent profit overall?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 02:36 PM:

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 02:38 PM:

What if statement is made by 3rd party and is clearly not fake?

What about live calls? Would you consider someone just lucky if he/she made you say 100 live calls in a row which would yield decent profit overall?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 02:40 PM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1247

07-30-12 02:38 PM
What if statement is made by 3rd party and is clearly not fake?

What about live calls? Would you consider someone just lucky if he/she made you say 100 live calls in a row which would yield decent profit overall?

#########

Dear Sir

Please ask
www.sec.gov
http://www.cftc.gov/index.htm

Authority would answer your request

Your respectfully

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 02:43 PM:

How can SEC or CFTC make you a proof of some retail trader's activity?

I wonder what else could make you believe it's possible. What about live calls? Would you believe your own eyes if trades were called to you in advance?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 02:57 PM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1248

07-30-12 02:43 PM
How can SEC or CFTC make you a proof of some retail trader's activity?

I wonder what else could make you believe it's possible. What about live calls? Would you believe your own eyes if trades were called to you in advance?

###############

It is possible.

Author have multiple conflict's with different paper money contest provider's

As example author have more as 30 e-mail's communication
with Chef of Derivative Department Germany BAFIN (Germany analog SEC and CFTC)

He checked auhtor paper money result and after that Commerzbank payed price money

Court of Iowa checked auhtor result by PFG ,after that PFG-Marketzar
payed money

In case of real money contest author have not any doubt ,that
SEC or CFTC on request of author would check contest and author result or ... would check without any request of any person

Best wish ...

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 02:58 PM:

So anyone can request SEC to audit his/her performance and give official conclusion?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 03:01 PM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1249

07-30-12 02:58 PM
So anyone can request SEC to audit his/her performance and give official conclusion?

##########

From experience of the author -yes
######################

No any doubt
##########

Result is used by contest provider for propaganda
He is public on official site of Frankfurter Stock exchange
or CME or ... site of the broker

And that is related to multiple law

Not only law of security operations ,but advertising
#################################

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 03:03 PM:

And if someone showed you statements audited by serious organization such as CFTC you would conclude that retail trading is possible?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 04:04 PM:

Cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1250

07-30-12 03:03 PM
And if someone showed you statements audited by serious organization such as CFTC you would conclude that retail trading is possible?
###################################

That was answered multiple time's above
--------------------------------------------------

In game ,where mass of retail operators are dissadvantaged against
professional win and great win for retail operator is possible ,as in lotto

But this win is matter of Fortune ,not the business
#################################

Business make Market-maker from Goldman Sachs ,whic hhave advantage atleas through spread

Broad mass (multi 100 000 000 )of lotto operators loss small amount of the money ,but exist some 10 persons ,which won 50 mln $ each

If operator is dissadvantaged in game (lower as 50 to 50 by payement
1:1 ) ,than best what he can make -low quantities of high risk bet ...

Long time dissadvataged game
#####################
with high quantities oeprations
####################
make chanse to loss more
##################

That is scientific ,as in casino ...

As exist multi mln retail operator's in stock,future ,derivative

than is possible ,that some would from this retail would have profit
long time with high quantities smalll operation's

Ground -very high quantities of retail operators
############################

and very limited quantities of retail ,which would perform that

With time ,quantities of this retail which would be in profit would be lower

Statement of CFTC and SEC in this case would give proof ,that this
operator is you ( 1 from 1 mln or 1 from 100 000 )
###########

and this kind or result is scientific fact
########################

Example

After statements of CFTC

12700 % (128 time's)on capital 1296 $ in one month
from 1 000 000 attempts in 3 years is scientific fact
#################################

with very good chance
##############

Best wish

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 04:06 PM:

Even win as a result of say 1000 of trades is just fortune, not professionalism?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 04:13 PM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1251

07-30-12 04:06 PM
Even win as a result of say 1000 of trades is just fortune, not professionalism?
--------------------------

Game theory ....

Scientificaly casino retail operator have dissadvantage
(ODD payments)
IN Europha best Casino retail operator have 48.64%
by payement 1:1

this dissadvantage -source of multi mln $ profit of casino owner

That very comporable with dissadvantage through spread -
MM by GS 1 mln $ p.a. i n28 years -norm

...say 1000 of trades is just fortune, not professionalism?
##################################

Which group of interess can win with

Statement " ...Profitable Trading for retail operator
with multiple 100 operations is matter of professionalism "

Answer - Bank's ,MM as this kind of statements is
effective promoutions

propaganda for broadly mass

Result of this kind of propaganda - Mass of new retail clients ,90%
of which would lose he's money for mln $ salary of IB

Posted by cornix on 07-30-12 04:18 PM:

Can you simply answer "yes" or "no"? If someone posts a verified statement of thousands of trades, which clearly show presence of an edge (say 66% profitable trades with 1:1 R/R) would you consider it luck or something else?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 04:18 PM:

Django Reinhardt - In A Sentimental Mood - Paris, 26.04.1937

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znbZ1oZ_OrQ

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 04:26 PM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1252

07-30-12 04:18 PM
Can you simply answer "yes" or "no"? If someone posts a verified statement of thousands of trades, which clearly show presence of an edge (say 66% profitable trades with 1:1 R/R) would you consider it luck or something else?
###########

Retail operator ?

thousands of trades 66% .... with payement 1:1 ?
--------------------------------------------------------------

After payement of spread ,broker and margin fees ?

For multi mln profit of Casino in best EU Casino in Monte-Carlo

in roullete by payement 1:1 enough 51.36% "profitable trade's "

....

You must ask another ET member ... they would answer
###################################

Posted by Wide Tailz on 07-30-12 04:49 PM:

I just made $54 day trading my sim account this morning.

Posted by BlueTurtle on 07-30-12 05:08 PM:

Quote from Wide Tailz:

I just made $54 day trading my sim account this morning.

LOL....I know you are kidding, but here is the problem. the "$" should be left out entirely. This is why SIM is so dangerous.

You actually say "dollars" and "made money".

It's a good racket.

It should be "I got 54 banana peels today."

No difference, until you say stuff like "I could have....if real money." LOL. then the mind starts doing its thing.....

Posted by Wide Tailz on 07-30-12 05:19 PM:

Quote from BlueTurtle:

LOL....I know you are kidding, but here is the problem. the "$" should be left out entirely. This is why SIM is so dangerous.

You actually say "dollars" and "made money".

It's a good racket.

It should be "I got 54 banana peels today."

No difference, until you say stuff like "I could have....if real money." LOL. then the mind starts doing its thing.....

I just made 6R daytrading my sim account today.

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 05:33 PM:

Wide Tailz wrote -

I just made 6R daytrading my sim account today.

#######################

You can try ...

Copy e-mail to author

There are less than 7 days left to register to our latest contest! Over 1363 traders have already registered, what about you?

The prizes are in total of $8500 so hurry up and register here: http://www.myfxbook.com/contests/tr...mmexfx/10/rules

Regards,
Myfxbook team.

Posted by Wide Tailz on 07-30-12 05:55 PM:

Quote from ssss:

You can try ...

I just signed up.

Somebody give this memo to Jack Hershey.

Posted by dv4632 on 07-30-12 06:37 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

And if someone showed you statements audited by serious organization such as CFTC you would conclude that retail trading is possible?

No, because some people will then say the statements are faked.

Simply proving to someone that trading is possible will not do them any good. It's been proven to me by a couple of people but that hasn't made it any easier for me to learn how to do it. Sure, it's encouraging at first but after a while reality sets in and you realize there is no shortcut.... duplicating someone else's discretionery trades is nowhere near as easy as you'd expect it be, even if you know all their 'rules'. In the end you still have to go through the hard and frustrating process of learning to trade.

So threads like this will always be a fact of life on forums. But maybe since Oil has found a profitable method this thread can finally die off.

Posted by oilfxpro on 07-30-12 08:44 PM:

Quote from dv4632:

No, because some people will then say the statements are faked.

Simply proving to someone that trading is possible will not do them any good. It's been proven to me by a couple of people but that hasn't made it any easier for me to learn how to do it. Sure, it's encouraging at first but after a while reality sets in and you realize there is no shortcut.... duplicating someone else's discretionery trades is nowhere near as easy as you'd expect it be, even if you know all their 'rules'. In the end you still have to go through the hard and frustrating process of learning to trade.

So threads like this will always be a fact of life on forums. But maybe since Oil has found a profitable method this thread can finally die off.

It will all of Baron's rebuttal mob to ruin this thread.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by sheda on 07-30-12 08:51 PM:

But maybe since Oil has found a profitable method this thread can finally die off.

29 Jun 2011 � oilfxpro is a Forex Guru in the Forex Trading | MetaTrader Indicators and Expert Advisors. View oilfxpro's profile

Is this the same oilfxpro? Why were you describing your self in such a manner if you have only just come across a profitable method?

Posted by pavlov0032 on 07-30-12 09:38 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital.

A few internet marketeers are selling motoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220707

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220676

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218977

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220513

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218160

Tell this tot hat guy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J60GtLVZSY&feature=plcp

LOL!

Posted by dv4632 on 07-30-12 10:09 PM:

Quote from sheda:

Is this the same oilfxpro? Why were you describing your self in such a manner if you have only just come across a profitable method?

Do you really believe everyone on the internet is being honest about their profitability? I think you need to be more cynical.

Of course there are real career traders out there, but I've learned that not everyone who claims to be a player can be believed.

Posted by ocean5 on 07-30-12 10:09 PM:

Daytrading is gremlins game

Posted by sheda on 07-30-12 10:26 PM:

Quote from dv4632:

Do you really believe everyone on the internet is being honest about their profitability? I think you need to be more cynical.

Not really, just haven't come across many self proclaimed gurus who are happy enough to produce a 100 page post about the inability to trade and on page 78 claim they have finally become consistent...

Posted by ssss on 07-30-12 10:40 PM:

copy

pavlov0032

Registered: Nov 2007
Posts: 333

Tell this tot hat guy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J60GtLVZSY&feature=plcp

LOL!

#########################

They speak russian ...

After dissoluttion of UdSSR Russia,Ukraina was filled with different kind of junk -

Soros ,Friedman ,another jews ideals and they's adepts

" ... Investment Banking business -that is social relation" -Goldman Sachs ,jews bank

Correct .... plus propaganda for broad mass,which would be used as source of income
for professional

In trading for existence one professional need approx 2000 -5000 retail operator's

Salary of VP 28 jears old from Goldman Sachs approx 1-1.5 mln $ per a.
In Retail Forex 90 % of all accounts have loss after first year

Posted by oraclewizard77 on 07-31-12 01:27 AM:

Jack H has produced over a 1,000 pages for free. He recently called a short on open for the market that proved to be correct. Now no one likes anyone to be successful, but at least he is not going to charge you money to learn his method. However, it takes time to read over 1,000 pages and most don't want to put in the effort or time to become a good trader.

Quote from sheda:

Not really, just haven't come across many self proclaimed gurus who are happy enough to produce a 100 page post about the inability to trade and on page 78 claim they have finally become consistent...

Posted by ocean5 on 07-31-12 02:39 AM:

Quote from oraclewizard77:

Jack H has produced over a 1,000 pages for free. ... at least he is not going to charge you money to learn his method.

Who knows...But i`m personally spent $60K on his teachings,and he`d rather be arguing with detractors,then to help to those who really care.I`m verry dissapointed with Jack,but who cares!...

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 02:56 AM:

Quote from ocean5:

$60K on his teachings

holy crap! Amazing what just having good friends is really worth..

Posted by ocean5 on 07-31-12 02:58 AM:

Yes,it was indeed a 'holy crap'!

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 03:34 AM:

Quote from ocean5:

Yes,it was indeed a 'holy crap'!

i'll hold your hand and talk you out of your aniexites for 10 bucks.. last offer

Posted by ocean5 on 07-31-12 03:36 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

i'll hold your hand and talk you out of your aniexites for 10 bucks.. last offer

Go ahead..

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 04:43 AM:

Quote from ssss:

Retail operator ?

thousands of trades 66% .... with payement 1:1 ?
--------------------------------------------------------------

After payement of spread ,broker and margin fees ?

For multi mln profit of Casino in best EU Casino in Monte-Carlo

in roullete by payement 1:1 enough 51.36% "profitable trade's "

You must ask another ET member ... they would answer

I am asking you. If someone showed you a credible track record of many trades with average win rate over 60% (after all fees and spread) with at least 1:1 risk/reward, would you admit retail trading is possible?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 04:46 AM:

Quote from dv4632:

No, because some people will then say the statements are faked.

Simply proving to someone that trading is possible will not do them any good. It's been proven to me by a couple of people but that hasn't made it any easier for me to learn how to do it. Sure, it's encouraging at first but after a while reality sets in and you realize there is no shortcut.... duplicating someone else's discretionery trades is nowhere near as easy as you'd expect it be, even if you know all their 'rules'. In the end you still have to go through the hard and frustrating process of learning to trade.

So threads like this will always be a fact of life on forums. But maybe since Oil has found a profitable method this thread can finally die off.

Absolutely agree, DV... But you know, I am a shrink, so am very interested about real roots of ssss's disbelief in trading and willing to help him to find those reasons and maybe fix them.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 04:49 AM:

Quote from ocean5:

Who knows...But i`m personally spent $60K on his teachings,and he`d rather be arguing with detractors,then to help to those who really care.I`m verry dissapointed with Jack,but who cares!...

You spent $60K on Jack Hershey?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Wide Tailz on 07-31-12 06:18 AM:

If he really did give Jack $60 for The Answer to his endless riddles, it should finally settle the controversy over his suspected Guru status.

Gurus always do it for the money (and girls).

Posted by ExchangeBonds on 07-31-12 06:27 AM:

Quote from oraclewizard77:

Jack H has produced over a 1,000 pages for free. He recently called a short on open for the market that proved to be correct. Now no one likes anyone to be successful, but at least he is not going to charge you money to learn his method. However, it takes time to read over 1,000 pages and most don't want to put in the effort or time to become a good trader.

Seriously? Who cares if he called the opening correct. The market can go up or down so big deal if he got it right. How about all the times he has been wrong, or the fact that he claims you can make more than the daily range every day? How come all of his followers aren't billionaires? The guy is fucking crazy.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 06:33 AM:

you ever think that these guys could play the hell out of you buy sending out emails or making recommendations to people like this..
send 1,000,000 direct mails or mail.
50% say market goes up
50% say market goes down...

then when the market went up.. he sends 500,000 emails
50% say market goes up
50% say market goes down...

then 250 thousand more.. 50 percent up 50 percent down...

after three sends.. even one or two percent yield would produce 2500 leads of people thinking you know what your talking about... .. then with a good pitch about some propertiery indicators and rocketship light speed trading technologies that we are going to let you in on.. BOOM your stupid haha

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 06:46 AM:

Yep. Sample size should be large enough to be a legit proof.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 06:58 AM:

you know its soooo funny.. The public catches wind that their brokerages could be betting against them.. boom you see commericals advertising "is your broker betting against you, go with us, we have integrity and look out for your best interest" such crap.. bucket shops.. i swear nothing seems to different from the way that Mr. Jesse Livermore described it..

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 07:21 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

you know its soooo funny.. The public catches wind that their brokerages could be betting against them.. boom you see commericals advertising "is your broker betting against you, go with us, we have integrity and look out for your best interest" such crap.. bucket shops.. i swear nothing seems to different from the way that Mr. Jesse Livermore described it..

I don't know if brokers often bet against their clients, but I have seen many, many trades going in a hair from stop-loss to yield a decent profit after.

Probably the factor of brokers betting against clients is much exaggerated, which looks perfectly logical, hence it switches responsibility from trader to broker to justify one's losing.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 07:43 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

I don't know if brokers often bet against their clients, but I have seen many, many trades going in a hair from stop-loss to yield a decent profit after.

Probably the factor of brokers betting against clients is much exaggerated, which looks perfectly logical, hence it switches responsibility from trader to broker to justify one's losing.

yeah and the freaking retail loser loves it.. thats me so far haha as far as currency trading is concerned.. so many bait and switches .. and running stops .. i tried wider stops .. all i did was get greater losses.. they still got hit haha.. had to have been betting the wrong way.. haha i'm just like every other guy that starts trading.. i think i can call reversals.. and to be honest i think at some time frame you have to.. but i'm not expert..

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 07:55 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

yeah and the freaking retail loser loves it.. thats me so far haha as far as currency trading is concerned.. so many bait and switches .. and running stops .. i tried wider stops .. all i did was get greater losses.. they still got hit haha.. had to have been betting the wrong way.. haha i'm just like every other guy that starts trading.. i think i can call reversals.. and to be honest i think at some time frame you have to.. but i'm not expert..

It is interesting, because I don't see how currency markets are any different from other markets (set aside typical "market character" of course). All just a matter of getting used to a certain market.

dv4632, who posted in this thread said today on my site, that it's got easier for him lately to trade Euro vs. ES, despite before it was the other way around. Must be something to do with time spent staring @ Euro chart.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 08:21 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

today on my site

WHATS YOUR SITE

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 08:29 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

WHATS YOUR SITE

LOL... Would be against ET rules to post it... But can be easily found, being equal to my username.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 08:37 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

LOL... Would be against ET rules to post it... But can be easily found, being equal to my username.

who is this "Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha" strip that out.. you do well at all with the advertising on your site... my friends wife does over 10 grand a month on this couponers unite site.. werid how people make so much blogging... i dated a girl for a while that put 250 in her saving account last year email marketing of all things..

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 08:39 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

who is this "Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha" strip that out.. you do well at all with the advertising on your site... my friends wife does over 10 grand a month on this couponers unite site.. werid how people make so much blogging... i dated a girl for a while that put 250 in her saving account last year email marketing of all things..

Ha, just template designer, it's fair to give him credit.

Advertising pays just for hosting, no intention to make it serious source of income, rather to have a place to discuss trading under my own rules, not being obligated to obey someone else's.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 08:49 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Ha, just template designer, it's fair to give him credit.

Advertising pays just for hosting, no intention to make it serious source of income, rather to have a place to discuss trading under my own rules, not being obligated to obey someone else's.

true.. well i'm doing something simliar soon.. i need to a little more logging of my trades.. i've always thought of constructing a trading journal app with some analytics.. but i just have't had the time to dig into it.. but i definitly need to log my own trades.. and i was working in excel with some stuff that i'm going to be inserting into a DB and what i was thinking was mapping it to charts on my blog that update on a continuous basis.. you know stuff i come up with rather then just your off the shelf crap.. i like messing around with web apps and programming so i do it for fun.. plus like you i don't always like obeying the rules

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 08:51 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

true.. well i'm doing something simliar soon.. i need to a little more logging of my trades.. i've always thought of constructing a trading journal app with some analytics.. but i just have't had the time to dig into it.. but i definitly need to log my own trades.. and i was working in excel with some stuff that i'm going to be inserting into a DB and what i was thinking was mapping it to charts on my blog that update on a continuous basis.. you know stuff i come up with rather then just your off the shelf crap.. i like messing around with web apps and programming so i do it for fun.. plus like you i don't always like obeying the rules

Yeah, planning to throw in some s/w to produce automated track record so that people could follow it...

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 09:00 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Yeah, planning to throw in some s/w to produce automated track record so that people could follow it...

oh yeah.. you blowing up over there.. killing it.. ready to show off? haha

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 09:01 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

oh yeah.. you blowing up over there.. killing it.. ready to show off? haha

LOL... No, really my goal is not being a guru or feel "cool"... Some people helped me a lot in past... for free. So I have to "pass what you have learnt" (c) Yoda.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 09:05 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

LOL... No, really my goal is not being a guru or feel "cool"... Some people helped me a lot in past... for free. So I have to "pass what you have learnt" (c) Yoda.

You know thats good to hear.... So many sharks out there looking for traders money... its so annoying.. friendships/relationships pay the best in so many ways anyways.... friends will cut you in on the truth and share proprietory crap etc etc.... while all the sharks try to cut your throat with it

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 09:09 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

You know thats good to hear.... So many sharks out there looking for traders money... its so annoying.. friendships/relationships pay the best in so many ways anyways.... friends will cut you in on the truth and share proprietory crap etc etc.... while all the sharks try to cut your throat with it

One of the main truths I have learnt is there is literally no "proprietary" stuff in discretionary trading. All is in front of eyes, everything needed is just some help from someone to push you to deliberately practice and keep doing it until you succeed.

Real proprietary stuff, such as working quant models is either never sold or is... as you said: crap and not something that works.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 09:13 AM:

So true so true do you have any favorite authors.... i get so frustrated with forex on a side note.. I seem to always bet the wrong direction... I feel like its a slippery snake i can sometimes put my hands on but then i never really get a hold of it

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 09:17 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

So true so true do you have any favorite authors.... i get so frustrated with forex on a side note.. I seem to always bet the wrong direction... I feel like its a slippery snake i can sometimes put my hands on but then i never really get a hold of it

Never read anything particularly related to forex, besides Cornelius Lucas (forgot the exact name, "Trading the Currency Market" or like that). But that book is more of a descriptive nature than actual guide for a trader.

My stuff is based on... Edwards & Magee (who could have guessed, considering it's mainly TA, ha) and Vic Sperandeo who's great in explaining both fundamentals driving markets and technicals... His books written decades ago are still as applicable to reality as now.

Some Al Brooks probably could be used too, but he's WAY HARD to read (can severely damage one's brain I believe, lol). Very detailed, though, but I would say Edwards & Magee + Sperandeo would build a good base for any TA trader already, at least to start constructively working on your own methodology.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 09:29 AM:

yea there so much psychology behind the market. Ive read alot on ta sometimes i think some of it is such garbage other times i think some of the stuff works but is taken so out of context... The answer is so clear sometimes and yet still we make bad decisions.. ive read alot of books on ta.. elliot wave,fib, to all sorts of ocsalators.. ichimku etc.. haha and ive messed with alot of their parameters and curve fitted the indicators to match the underlying.. but in essense my love has always been options.. i realyy wanna start trading more currency options... xde etc..

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 09:30 AM:

I'm too lazy (Russian, you know ) to analyze options lately... Agree on psychology, would recommend Mark Douglas on the matter, good stuff worth reading too.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 09:34 AM:

amos trversky and taleb... i love rare event trading... bleed slow exponientially make up for it on tail events.. i have a ratio backspread on the euro puts in case some real crazy stufff hits the fan... i have always thought there was alot of really agreesive double down trading in currency because of the swings.. martingaling blow ups..

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 09:35 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

amos trversky and taleb... i love rare event trading... bleed slow exponientially make up for it on tail events.. i have a ratio backspread on the euro puts in case some real crazy stufff hits the fan... i have always thought there was alot of really agreesive double down trading in currency because of the swings.. martingaling blow ups..

As you mentioned Taleb does it mean you mostly are net long?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 09:44 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

As you mentioned Taleb does it mean you mostly are net long?

Im long volatilty as you would put it.. If euro goes up im fine.. im long interest rates asxwell or you could say im short bonds... Euro trade is on the jan 14 options series... why would you assume that i would be net long when i said taleb

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 09:46 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

Im long volatilty as you would put it.. If euro goes up im fine.. im long interest rates asxwell or you could say im short bonds... Euro trade is on the jan 14 options series... why would you assume that i would be net long when i said taleb

Yes, long volatility, that's what I thought when you mentioned Taleb (aka Black Swan I assume

).

Not sure @ long interest rates of ECB, though, considering the current fundamental context. But that's your game, you must know better.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 09:53 AM:

Ecb? haha no i think europe know their problems better then we do... Im taking a while bet but small bet on inflation to hyper inflation in the usa.. interest rates dont stay below 2 forever. they are an option spread on the tbt

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 09:55 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

Ecb? haha no i think europe know their problems better then we do... Im taking a while bet but small bet on inflation to hyper inflation in the usa.. interest rates dont stay below 2 forever. they are an option spread on the tbt

I see... Well, almost deflation currently even with zero rates, so...

Of course all those QE's will eventually lead to hyper-inflation as econ starts to recover, but that's quite a long-term bet I would say.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 10:01 AM:

yea it sure is. . But the guys that bet againts those subprime mortgage bonds probably thought that was along term investment to... i wanna figure out how to limited risk lever up big time on a jump in interest rates with alot of room for error on timing.. best i can come up with are deep otm calls or ratio backspreads.... ratios have margin requiremetns that you could just as well buy a less amount of dotm options to make up for.. tie less money up but expirence theta burn.. Options dont have black swans priced in :-)

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 10:01 AM:

cornixforex wrote

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1267

1. First version of your questions

thousands of trades 66% hit .... with payement 1:1 ?
--------------------------------------------------------------

2. Second version of your questions

...I am asking you. If someone showed you a credible track record of many trades with average win rate over 60% (after all fees and spread) with at least 1:1 risk/reward, would you admit retail trading is possible?

Difference " thousands of trades 66% hit "
----------------------------------------------------
against "many trades with average win rate over 60%"
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Many and thousands -that is very different matter

Real money Record belov with multiple's small operations

China - 2116.39% Survey / Trade Report (.xls version)

May 2011
http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micr...2011/1stpdf.pdf
http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king...er-archive.html

But ...

1. That is many small profitable trades, but
not "thousands of trades 66% hit "

2. Exist more as 1 record's in this contest, which are

a. have more high % -12700%, 3108 % ,2464 % &
b. 80 % profit of which is related to one operation
--------------------------------------------------------

......

For multi mln profit of Casino in best EU Casino in Monte-Carlo

in roullete by payement 1:1 enough 51.36% "profitable trade's "

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 10:04 AM:

Retail trading is possible if you dont act retail :-)

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 10:07 AM:

cdcaveman

Registered: Aug 2011
Posts: 509

07-31-12 10:04 AM
Retail trading is possible if you dont act retail :-)

#############################

Did you received broker fees reduction ?

For placement this kind of message's
on regulary basys in all possible forum's

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 10:16 AM:

SSSS,

You won't escape.

Whatever is "many", let it be 1000 trades with average hit rate of 60% and 1:1 R/R. Would such a statistics make you sure retail trading is possible?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 10:18 AM:

i never can follow what you guys are talking about

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 10:18 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

i never can follow what you guys are talking about

Yea, someone's English definitely needs refining...

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 10:20 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Yea, someone's English definitely needs refining...

not you. ?what is he trying to argue?

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 10:21 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

i not you. ?what is he trying to argue?

Same old story. Game is rigged so you can't win.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 10:24 AM:

I can relate to that feeling haha when im losing and needing an excuse :-)

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 10:25 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

I can relate to that feeling haha when im losing and needing an excuse :-)

Yea, a lot of mental strength is needed to keep responsibility and objectivity during periods of losing.

P. S. Wonder if Zuckerberg now blaming FB dump on stupid users who don't click ads often enough.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 10:33 AM:

Wonder what one cares about with that much money... haha. So you lose 7 bill in theoretical value that really wasn't there. How could that bother ya when you have turned so much out of that app

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 10:34 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

Wonder what one cares about with that much money... haha. So you lose 7 bill in theoretical value that really wasn't there. How could that bother ya when you have turned so much out of that app

Ego issues can hurt even worse than actual money lost. Relates much to trading as well.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 10:37 AM:

cornixforex

SSSS,

You won't escape.

Whatever is "many", let it be 1000 trades with average hit rate of 60% and 1:1 R/R. Would such a statistics make you sure retail trading is possible?

############

You must check contest of RTS

http://forum.rts.ru/viewforum.asp?f=13

Конкурс "Лучший частный инвестор - 2011 -2007

Winner's performed scalping , have made lot of operations ,
possible comparable with your quantities 1000

but ...

1. Specific condition of the game ( diifferent to EU,USA)
2. With very good chance winner is biased from RTS
-----------------------------------------------------------

first year contest winner was - jews
second year winner pupil of first year winner -jews
third year winner - wife of pupil
winner have connection ,which have had lower time
delay as another competitors ( by scalping decisive)
winner is related to professional scene

For non Russia resident this contest is not suited -
tax is 30 % ( compare for resident 13%)

Long term multiple year many ( 1000 + operations )
in game ,where operator (retail) have dissadvantage
----------------------------------------------------------------

have incomporable lower chance for profitability ,
if compare with small quantities of heeavy risk bet ...

That would answer for third version of your questions

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 10:39 AM:

What if say, EURUSD trader presented you a track record of consistent winning after 1000 trades?

Would be "sponsored by the broker" I guess?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 10:48 AM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1274

07-31-12 10:39 AM
What if say, EURUSD trader presented you a track record of consistent winning after 1000 trades?

Would be "sponsored by the broker" I guess?

###########################

...
Author presentedto you mutiple result's in real money contest's
with approx 1 000 000 attempts for 3 years

With result 12700% ,3108 % ,2800% ,2400% &

per month
#######

Is result bof your trader better ?
CFTC checked result ?
Is your operator professional ?
Is your operator ex-professional and used advantage of old relation's ?
Are relative of your operator worked/work in financial service industry ?
Did you have any criminal record ?

And another questions ,which would make great pleasure for you and your protege ...

....

You or your trader realy ready to answer this questionns and many other to CFTC or Attorney of the state ?

Fundamental -Retail sector is disadvantaged through

1. Spread
2. Margin and broker fees
3 .For some strategy connections with more high delay as by professional

Long term for great quantities of opreatiosns odds of retail
worster as 50 to 50 by payement 1:1
########################

Monte Carlo Casino make multi mln profit with odds 51.36%

by roullete by payement 1:1

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 10:50 AM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1274

07-31-12 10:39 AM
What if say, EURUSD trader presented you a track record of consistent winning after 1000 trades?

Would be "sponsored by the broker" I guess?

############

Please disscus this matter with agency belov

http://www.cftc.gov/index.htm

http://www.cftc.gov/Contact/index.htm

This page lists the primary contact information for the CFTC. If you can't find what you�re looking for, please send an email to Questions@cftc.gov.

MAIN OFFICE

Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st Street, NW
Washington, DC 20581

202-418-5000
202-418-5521, fax
202-418-5514, TTY
questions@cftc.gov

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 10:52 AM:

What an excellent example of pre-set beliefs with amazing ability to adapt any new information received from outside so that it fits those beliefs.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 10:56 AM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1275

07-31-12 10:52 AM
What an excellent example of pre-set beliefs with amazing ability to adapt any new information received from outside so that it fits those beliefs.
#######

Dear Sir

Please all follloving questions and statements about 66 % hit
in many 1000 operations with 1:1
send to CFTC

They would answer ...

Not forgett ,that State have Power ... not you
################################

Example

Update 3: Russ Wasendorf Sr., the founder and CEO of PFGBest, reportedly attempted to commit suicide this morning outside the corporate headquarters in rural Cedar Falls, company officials confirmed Monday afternoon.

Update 2: PFGBest had $400MM in customer segregated funds at the end of April. Is JPMorgan about to "discover" another $400 million in Q2 "profits"?

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 10:59 AM:

I don't care much to prove anything here or anywhere else. My methodology is so simple monkey could follow it and make money.

Trading and particularly talking with people interested in trading gives invaluable examples of how human mind operates, because circumstances of uncertainty peculiar to trading provoke classic activities such as distortion of reality etc.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 10:59 AM:

This page lists the primary contact information for the CFTC. If you can't find what you�re looking for, please send an email to Questions@cftc.gov.

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 11:01 AM:

1. cornixforex wrote -

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1276

07-31-12 10:59 AM
I don't care much to prove anything here or anywhere else. My methodology is so simple money could follow it and make money.

Trading and particularly talking with people interested in trading gives invaluable examples of how human mind operates, because circumstances of uncertainty peculiar to trading provoke classic activities such as distortion of reality etc.

#####################################

2. Example

Update 3: Russ Wasendorf Sr., the founder and CEO of PFGBest, reportedly attempted to commit suicide this morning outside the corporate headquarters in rural Cedar Falls, company officials confirmed Monday afternoon.

Update 2: PFGBest had $400MM in customer segregated funds at the end of April. Is JPMorgan about to "discover" another $400 million in Q2 "profits"?

3.
http://www.cftc.gov/index.htm

http://www.cftc.gov/Contact/index.htm

This page lists the primary contact information for the CFTC. If you can't find what you�re looking for, please send an email to Questions@cftc.gov.

MAIN OFFICE

Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st Street, NW
Washington, DC 20581

202-418-5000
202-418-5521, fax
202-418-5514, TTY
questions@cftc.gov

This page lists the primary contact information for the CFTC. If you can't find what you�re looking for, please send an email to Questions@cftc.gov.

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 11:06 AM:

cornixforex wrote -

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1276

07-31-12 10:59 AM
I don't care much to prove anything here or anywhere else. My methodology is so simple monkey could follow it and make money.

......

About many 1000 operations with hit 66%
############################

For our full coverage of the financial fallout at Peregrine Financial Group, click here.

CEDAR FALLS, Iowa --- Peregrine Financial Group filed for bankruptcy Tuesday and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a concurrent complaint against the company and its owner, Russell Ralph Wasendorf Sr., to freeze company assets.

The action came a day after Wasendorf, 64, allegedly attempted to take his own life and another regulatory arm, the National Futures Association, took action against the company.

The company filed for bankruptcy Tuesday under Chapter 7 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code, usually the course companies take toward liquidation. But the CFTC action seeks a restraining order to freeze assets, appoint a receiver and preserve records. It also seeks restitution, and civil monetary penalties.

The company�s bankruptcy petition, filed in federal court in Chicago Tuesday, was signed by Wasendorf�s son, Russell Wasendorf Jr. The younger Wasendorf is the company�s president and chief operating officer. The filing noted Wasendorf Jr. was empowered to take the action pursuant to a power of attorney action due to his father�s incapacitation. The power of attorney action was dated July 3, according to the company�s bankruptcy filing.

Officials said Wasendorf Sr. was taken to University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics in Iowa City, and his condition wasn�t available. Court records filed Tuesday stated he is believed to be in a coma as a result of the suicide attempt. A note left by Wasendorf prompted investigators to notify the FBI, which is conducting a preliminary inquiry.

The CFTC complaint, filed Tuesday in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, alleges PFG and Wasendorf committed fraud by misappropriating customer funds, violated customer fund segregation laws and made false statements in financial statements filed with the commission.

The commission alleges PFG falsely represented that it held in excess of $220 million of customer funds during an NFA audit when in fact it held approximately $5.1 million. CFTC alleges PFG and Wasendorf failed to maintain adequate customer funds in segregated accounts as required by the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC Regulations.

The alleged bogus numbers go back to February 2010 when the company claimed $207 million in its segregated customer funds account but really had less than $10 million. In March 2011, the complaint further alleges, defendants made false statements in filings required by the commission regarding funds held in segregation for customers trading on U.S. Exchanges.

In the aftermath of Wasendorf�s suicide attempt, the staff of the NFA received information that Wasendorf may have falsified certain bank records.

Signs of trouble surfaced months ago. In February, the company and its executives paid $700,000 to settle charges by the National Futures Association, the regulator that shut PFG down this week. The association alleged Peregrine had failed to supervise brokers who made deceptive sales pitches and sought big commissions at the expense of customers.

That helped convince Phil Flynn, at the time a broker with Peregrine, to leave the firm after five years.

�For me, that was a big red flag to start looking for another firm,� Flynn, who now works with Price Futures Group in Chicago, told The Associated Press. �My only regret is that I didn�t act faster.�

Flynn said Wasendorf Sr. gave an awkward, rambling speech at the company�s most recent Christmas party about his early business career and what it takes to become a success.

�It was kind of a downbeat thing for a Christmas party, kind of out of place and weird,� he said.

Flynn said some firm employees referred to Wasendorf�s inner circle as �Wasendorfians.� He said the chairman was often surrounded by underlings who treated him �like he was the rock star of the firm, with great deference.�

Wasendorf built an $18 million headquarters for the company that included a daycare center, a Montessori School for employees� kids and free breakfast and lunch, Flynn said.

�It was almost unbelievable,� he said of the facility�s opulence.

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 11:07 AM:

How is particular brokerage scam related to ability of a trader to trade profitably?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 12:46 PM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1277

07-31-12 11:07 AM
How is particular brokerage scam related to ability of a trader to trade profitably?
###########################

1 .That is criminal case

2. In year 2011 on site of PFG was statement ,which is
some equal to your statement

Compare -

PFG wrote
---------------

"In my life i was teached not to be a right ,but a make a money "

cornixforex wrote
--------------------
I don't care much to prove anything here or anywhere else. My methodology is so simple monkey could follow it and make money.

3. All statement's from respondent cornixforex
#################################

as "...thousands of trades 66% .... with payement 1:1"
"... thousands of trades, which clearly show presence of an edge (say 66% profitable trades with 1:1 R/R) "

without any scientific evidence
#####################

No any CFTC or SEC verification ,only propaganda ...

This page lists the primary contact information for the CFTC. If you can't find what you�re looking for, please send an email to Questions@cftc.gov.

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 12:52 PM:

There was no propaganda, there was a QUESTION to you: IF you see such a statement, would you believe retail trading is possible?

You never answered just "yes" or "no", so who's doing propaganda here?

Still have no idea how PFG case is related to the fact if trading possible or not.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 12:55 PM:

SSSS,

What if you see LIVE CALLS right in front of your eyes, many live calls in a row... Would you believe trading is possible then?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by sheda on 07-31-12 01:00 PM:

Be more interested if he could learn how to quote

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 01:05 PM:

It demands even harder work than learning how to trade.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 01:35 PM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1280

07-31-12 12:52 PM
There was no propaganda, there was a QUESTION to you: IF you see such a statement, would you believe retail trading is possible?

You never answered just "yes" or "no", so who's doing propaganda here?
####################

1. Your changed your statement mutliple time's

... thousands of trades, which clearly show presence of an edge (say 66% profitable trades with 1:1 R/R)

to

...Whatever is "many", let it be 1000 trades with average hit rate of 60% and 1:1 R/R

2. Your questions was answered before

In game ,where retail operator is dissadvantaged
################################

low quantities of the high risk bet fundamental correct approach

Many operations -chance tobe ruined is higher

But as exist 100 mln + reatail operators ,than can exist very limited quantities which can be profitable with many operations

Author not informed about existence of any retail operator with 1000 operations with 60 % of win rate by payement 1:1

No any information to date ,which was verified from CFTC
###################################

In all case's exist or not exist -that is only matter of game theory
#########################################
(if case is verified from CFTC and SEC ,no relation to professional scene ,no relative & )

It is very good comparable with lotto win

Retail sector fundamental dissadvantaged through spread ,broker and margin fees

Advantage of only 51.36% by payement 1:1 in Monte Carlo Casino
is enough to make mlm $ on regulary basys with your art of activities

".. thousands of trades"

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 01:38 PM:

I changed the question because it's not important how many is "many", whatever you find large enough sample.

Did I understand you right, that you admit: among all retail traders there can be some who are consistently profitable after making many (thousands) of trades?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 01:41 PM:

Copy

cornixforex wrote

-IF you see such a statement, would you believe retail trading is possible?

You never answered just "yes" or "no
#######################

You questions is false -have only propaganda objective
---------------------------------------------------------

You wrote - " retail trading is possible?"

It exist ... as gambling
##############

Exist more as 100 mln retail operators ,which are performed
trading acitivities

But most of them (90 %) loss money
########################

Profitability in game ,where operator is dissadvantaged -

is related only to game theory or Fortune
############################

Casino ,Lotto , retail trading

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 01:44 PM:

Why did you decide my intention is propaganda?

My intention is not to let distortion of reality happen.

I got what you mean. And agree about 90%+ losing. Now tell me, what % of athletes who try to make a career in sports become Olympic winners? No need for exact numbers, just how do you think, what % approximately.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ExchangeBonds on 07-31-12 01:47 PM:

itt: If most people can't do it, it must be gambling.

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 01:51 PM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1281

07-31-12 01:38 PM
I changed the question because it's not important how many is "many", whatever you find large enough sample.

Did I understand you right, that you admit: among all retail traders there can be some who are consistently profitable after making many (thousands) of trades?

1. Very limited quantities of retail operators ,which play
Game with odds funamental lower as 50 % ( Dissadvantage)
with payement 1:1

can be profitable after long amount of operations

Ground Very high quantities of all operators - 100 mln

2. Profitability of this very limited quantities of retail operator's
in Game with dissadvantage

is the matter of Fortune ,Game theory
#########################

not the professionalism
###############

Professional - that is VP by Goldman Sachs
###########################

28-30 years old , 1-1.5 mln $ p.a.

3. In game with dissadvantage result of profitable operators ,which
make low quantities of operations with high risk is better

as result of profitable operators with high quantities of operations

That is full correlated with statistic of real money contest of FXCM

Approx 1 mln man -attempts for 3 years

5 best results (from 2400% until 12700 % per month)
related mostly to one operation with movement 1000 pips or 100 $ XAU/USD

Posted by sheda on 07-31-12 01:52 PM:

Daytrading is gremlins game

But i`m personally spent $60K on his teachings

Posted by Paddler on 07-31-12 01:52 PM:

Quote from oraclewizard77:

Jack H has produced over a 1,000 pages for free. ... However, it takes time to read over 1,000 pages and most don't want to put in the effort or time to become a good trader.

Oh yeah???

Look at how many of his followers spending years to learn and yet never become a profitable trader. It is a hard truth.

Why so?

Simple. Some flaws in his thought process and some missing pieces in his methodology.

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 01:53 PM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1282

07-31-12 01:44 PM
Why did you decide my intention is propaganda?

My intention is not to let distortion of reality happen.

I got what you mean. And agree about 90%+ losing. Now tell me, what % of athletes who try to make a career in sports become Olympic winners? No need for exact numbers, just how do you think, what % approximately.

#########

Please provide any relevant information ,verified from CFTC

about retail operator with 1000 operations hit ratio 60%
by payement 1:1

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 01:53 PM:

What makes you think there are as many retail traders as 100M people? And among those, how do you think, what is the probability of someone being just "lucky" having say 60% win rate with 1:1 R/R after thousands of trades happened during years?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 01:55 PM:

Quote from ssss:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1282

07-31-12 01:44 PM
Why did you decide my intention is propaganda?

My intention is not to let distortion of reality happen.

I got what you mean. And agree about 90%+ losing. Now tell me, what % of athletes who try to make a career in sports become Olympic winners? No need for exact numbers, just how do you think, what % approximately.

#########

Please provide any relevant information ,verified from CFTC

about retail operator with 1000 operations hit ratio 60%
by payement 1:1

I never said I will provide it to you. I only ASKED QUESTIONS.

Now, you didn't answer my question about athletes. You don't like athletes? Let's try different question: many % of young guys who try to create a rock/pop band become rock/pop stars?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 01:56 PM:

Quote from Paddler:

Oh yeah???

Look at how many of his followers spending years to learn and yet never become a profitable trader. It is a hard truth.

Why so?

Simple. Some flaws in his thought process and some missing pieces in his methodology.

It looks to me Jack just over complicates trading way too much.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 01:59 PM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1284

07-31-12 01:53 PM
What makes you think there are as many retail traders as 100M people? And among those, how do you think, what is the probability of someone being just "lucky" having say 60% win rate with 1:1 R/R after thousands of trades happened during years?

#########

Check FXCM real money contest

3 years = 36 month

Each account with more as 500 $ automaticaly entry

50 000 accounts *36 month = approx 1 mln attempts
#################################

85-90 % all forex account are loosed

Exist no any winner with 1000 operations
############################

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king...er-archive.html

That is result of winner with most quantities of operations

China- 1627.14% Survey / Trade Report (.xls version)
http://media.dailyfx.com/sales/micr...dereport1st.pdf

He is not the best and not in top 5
That is not 1000 operations ,lower ...

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 02:01 PM:

1) 1 mln attempts is likely the same people trying over and over.

2) The fact that 85-90% lose means that 10-15% win, right?

3) Why would anyone consistently profitable participate in contests? Consistency and maximum short-term profitability are not very well mixed if you get what I mean. Most consistent traders would never win any contest, they just make their moderate profit month after month.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Paddler on 07-31-12 02:01 PM:

Quote from ocean5:

Who knows...But i`m personally spent $60K on his teachings,and he`d rather be arguing with detractors,then to help to those who really care.I`m verry dissapointed with Jack,but who cares!...

Hey....ask for refund.

He HELPS to make you confused even more.

Does he know? I doubt it.

He blames you as being lazy and stupid.

Am I rude?

Posted by sheda on 07-31-12 02:03 PM:

SIXTY K:dddddddddddddddd

Posted by Paddler on 07-31-12 02:10 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

It looks to me Jack just over complicates trading way too much.

No.

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 02:13 PM:

Quote from Paddler:

No.

LOL

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Paddler on 07-31-12 02:18 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

LOL

The issue is not "complicated". LOL

How much do you know his method? There are some flaws and some missing pieces.

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 02:20 PM:

cornixforex

Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 1286

07-31-12 02:01 PM
1) 1 mln attempts is likely the same people trying over and over.

Yes ,most of them performed multiple attempts

2) The fact that 85-90% lose means that 10-15% win, right?

No ...
#####
5-7 % going to 0
by another 2.9 % + profit is very limited
0.1 % have profit 50-100 %

and 0.01 have more as 500%

3) Why would anyone consistently profitable participate in contests?

Consistency and maximum short-term profitability are not very well mixed if you get what I mean. Most consistent traders would never win any contest, they just make their moderate profit month after month.

....
Your statement without any matter

Please provide CFTC/SEC verified statements ...
############################

http://www.cftc.gov/index.htm

Author knew no one retail operator ,which can provide ... profitablity verified CFTC after 1000 operations with 60 % hit rate and payement 1:1

Author have not to date any CFTC /SEC verified statements of
retail operator

with 1000 operations hit rate 60 % and payement 1:1

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 02:32 PM:

Quote from Paddler:

The issue is not "complicated". LOL

How much do you know his method? There are some flaws and some missing pieces.

Know it more or less, spent at least a month back in 2007 chatting with him personally. From what I remember he's mostly based on price action and some volume added there.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 02:34 PM:

Quote from ssss:

and 0.01 have more as 500%

So 1% is well profitable when trading?

Your statement without any matter

Please provide CFTC/SEC verified statements ...
############################

http://www.cftc.gov/index.htm

Author knew no one retail operator ,which can provide ... profitablity verified CFTC after 1000 operations with 60 % hit rate and payement 1:1

Author have not to date any CFTC /SEC verified statements of
retail operator

with 1000 operations hit rate 60 % and payement 1:1 [/B]

Of course, who of those who just do it would care to prove something to forum sceptics? Trolling them is much more fun.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by ssss on 07-31-12 03:15 PM:

cornixforex wrote ...

So 1% is well profitable when trading?

Depend from time ...

IF after one year 3-5 % of account profitable by retail forex ,than
after 3 years would lower ....

after 5 years -decrease more as after one
after 10 -more decerease as after 5

##########
cornixforex wrote ..

Of course, who of those who just do it would care to prove something to forum sceptics? Trolling them is much more fun.

Responsiblity for evaluation of your own activities on this forum
#######################################
cornixforex wrote - " ...Trolling them is much more fun."
#################################

belong to you-cornixforex
###############

Not clear in this case why root /adm not forced you out ...

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 03:18 PM:

Quote from ssss:

cornixforex wrote ...

So 1% is well profitable when trading?

Depend from time ...

IF after one year 3-5 % of account profitable by retail forex ,than
after 3 years would lower ....

after 5 years -decrease more as after one
after 10 -more decerease as after 5

Sounds fair to me. Trading is a very scalable profession, so there MUST be very low % of consistently profitable private traders. It's a good things IMO, not bad.

Those who don't like this fact may work at McD, guess failure rate there is much lower.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 03:27 PM:

Quote from ssss:

Not clear in this case why root /adm not forced you out ...

Of course because I am paid propagandist.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Paddler on 07-31-12 03:38 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Know it more or less, spent at least a month back in 2007 chatting with him personally. From what I remember he's mostly based on price action and some volume added there.

You know near to nothing.

I am not endorsing his method nor saying it is junk. You can make money with some parts of it though.

Posted by sheda on 07-31-12 03:39 PM:

Quote from Paddler:

You know near to nothing.

I am not endorsing his method nor saying it is junk.

Did you spend 60 large to learn to?

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 03:45 PM:

Quote from Paddler:

You know near to nothing.

I am not endorsing his method nor saying it is junk. You can make money with some parts of it though.

Likely I don't... Not that I care too much. It looks too complicated anyway.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 03:46 PM:

Quote from sheda:

Did you spend 60 large to learn to?

So that's how Jack got rich...

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Paddler on 07-31-12 03:52 PM:

Quote from sheda:

Did you spend 60 large to learn to?

Try harder, jerk.

Why don't you ask: Did you make 60 large?

Posted by sheda on 07-31-12 03:55 PM:

Quote from Paddler:

Try harder, jerk.

Why don't you ask: Did you make 60 large?

Hurt ego

Jerk!!!!!

Posted by Paddler on 07-31-12 04:03 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Likely I don't... Not that I care too much. It looks too complicated anyway.

Sure. Nothing is easy in any profession.

Posted by cornix on 07-31-12 04:05 PM:

Quote from Paddler:

Sure. Nothing is easy in any profession.

Yeah, but something is simple (not easy, simple).

Probably Jack trades well, I don't know, just seems a bit redundant to trade profitably to me.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Paddler on 07-31-12 04:21 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Yeah, but something is simple (not easy, simple).

Probably Jack trades well, I don't know, just seems a bit redundant to trade profitably to me.

It sure is good not to know or worry too much.

Do you have 5-min volume bars on your charts? Can you READ the mind of last forming volume bar (current) moves up and lulls and change color? No? Good, I have an upper hand over you.

How about reading the DOM?

Just for laugh.

I know someone is lurking. Jack?

Posted by sheda on 07-31-12 04:44 PM:

Quote from Paddler:

It sure is good not to know or worry too much.

Do you have 5-min volume bars on your charts? Can you READ the mind of last forming volume bar (current) moves up and lulls and change color? No? Good, I have an upper hand over you. How about reading the DOM?

Just for laugh.

I know someone is lurking. Jack?

Dam.. I need indicators that change colour to READ the all seeing market mind??? And if I don't have a rainbow I don't have the upper hand? Darn it!

Posted by jack hershey on 07-31-12 05:59 PM:

Quote from Wide Tailz:

If he really did give Jack $60 for The Answer to his endless riddles, it should finally settle the controversy over his suspected Guru status.

Gurus always do it for the money (and girls).

What do they call guible people.

How much of my day is 60K? Besides I support learning for free.

Do a profile of ocean 5. He is a B type detractor.

Try to recognize a person who baits others to get attention.

This is a summer day. In CW parlance it is called "chop". Chop is probably a sailing term from the LI sound wealthy traders who sail out of Larchmont or Greenwich (Indian Harbor) or the guys on the other side of bell 32A (Oyster Bay).

To make money you pay attention to longer laterals where you have permission to trade on the sub.

Posted by sheda on 07-31-12 06:22 PM:

Longer like the 5 minute charts, you say?

Posted by cdcaveman on 07-31-12 09:05 PM:

hahaha.... but don't the guy realize that any big business has leverage over the small guy? doesn't matter if their selling ice cream or donuts.. or hey coffee..

Posted by cornix on 08-01-12 06:01 AM:

Quote from Paddler:

It sure is good not to know or worry too much.

Do you have 5-min volume bars on your charts? Can you READ the mind of last forming volume bar (current) moves up and lulls and change color? No? Good, I have an upper hand over you. How about reading the DOM?

Just for laugh.

I know someone is lurking. Jack?

You are welcome to be in the move ahead of me, I have nothing against.

Personally, I don't try to be cute and be first in and first out, instead I wait for confirmed signals with enough potential to get the "meat" of the move and that's it. One old and experienced trader taught me this, simple even primitive stuff... But as long as it works, and it always did, does and will...

Guys who try the same style soon start making nice ticks nearly every day... Do they worry about not being the first in every swing? Doubt it...

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 08-01-12 08:11 AM:

Quote from sheda:

Dam.. I need indicators that change colour to READ the all seeing market mind??? And if I don't have a rainbow I don't have the upper hand? Darn it!

Did Jack teach you about rainbow colours on charts and their effectiveness?

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cdcaveman on 08-01-12 08:43 AM:

this guy jack seems to have a nak for stringing people along haha

Posted by jack hershey on 08-01-12 08:30 PM:

This thread hs been around for a while. Many others have too.

With respect to the topic of the thread.

Day trading means doing trades intraday.

Gaming the markets probably means using gamiing techniques to win doing a series of trades during the day.

Losers are mentioned in the title. Most potential traders participate in markets for a while and then they quit. The potential life span of such a participant is brief and the expereince really leaves as mark on the person for the rest of his life.

the process for becoming successful is simple and well explained. Please go to Behavioral Finance and print the lead there which is entitled "BF or BS?". It is a good standard for discussing whether "Day Trading is a Loser's Game".

For most people who take up considering trading; they observe, some experiment and all are ignorant. In terms of probability, and in terms of gaming, being successful in trading doesn't work.

the financial industry could not survive on trading either. Instead, the financial indutry uses other non trading avenues to survive.

There are an assortment of self policing membership organizations that give away "credentials" that indicate a person did what was required to make a payment in return for getting the credential.

If a person does not get credentials and say he is a professional, he has to obey certain limitations to not break the laws if he is to continue to trade for others than himsleve. All brokers are required to have their trading clients answer a regulatory agency questionaire periodically.

Today most IB's are quite stuffy about allowing any kind of out of the ordinary trading to go on under their rooves. The filed paperwork they require is followed up by personal interviews with such clients.

The questionaire is very clear about sorting amateurs from professionals. If you get classified as a professional, then you have different fees and costs than an amatuer. Professionals also have more severe reporting requirements.

Hee in this thread some paricipants have looked at the records of organizations that reugulate professionals. They reported back to ET some facts they think they found out.

There are many good examples of beginners becoming successfu.

Some have written books.

Today, it is no different than it has been in the past. Except there is more information and it is more readily available.

In conclusion, the vast majority of beggining potential traders keep their focus on repeated failure. finally, they accomplish quitting trading and then they tell others about what they cannot do.

Posted by Wide Tailz on 08-01-12 08:47 PM:

Quote from jack hershey:

With respect to the topic of the thread.

I am not impressed with your performance.

Posted by jack hershey on 08-01-12 08:58 PM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

this guy jack seems to have a nak for stringing people along haha

I have a lot of "nak's".

My vantagepoint is one that comes from a good and long experience.

As a student in a department where juries judged creativity by ranking the students relative to one another, I quickly learned to select a reasonable approach and spend my time iteratively refining the concept.

After working my way through school while not borrowing money, I learned one important thing. Money is a commodity and it is not scare at all.

So I followed my contemporay, Darvas, and took money out of the markets. From the beginning I could see as did he, that in a period of time an given amount of money was available for extraction. I did nothing unusual except steadily take money out of the market at a steady money velocity. Others, in the course of my life, observed me doing this. All they did was look at where I lived and what I did.

Today, I live in Tucson, AZ and I do what I want as time passes. I am known to have multiple accounts at an IB in California. It is known that the CEO of the brokerage visits me in Tucson. some of WJO'N's protogeges visit me too. WJO'N wrote a book as did Darvas. In his second book WJO'N mentions his beginnings. He worked 27 months to make enough money from his intial capital ($500) to start IBD, etc.

It is the nature of all markets to offer all the time during RTH. this is a market "nak". People observe me taking the market's offer. that is they sit in a chair near me. they do not talk. I talk and I exhibit behavior. these two "nak's" are valuable to others. They see money being made by taking the market's offer. Before I act, I explain my thinking using my vocabulary which they have learned.

As you say, there is a name for what I do to my visitors. I string them along.

They have laptops and they have accounts. They press buttons on their laptops. They watch my mice being operated by my hands. My mice have specific jobs that they do.

I use Snagit to make electronic files fo my annotated trades. My computer stores these on thunb drives. I email the files to the people who watch me and those people in the Tucson office and their friends and friends of those friends. There is a network of people I have the "nak" of stringing along.

I write documents. I print those documents and give them away. My last print I bound in 3 ring binders. It ws to get ready for a Paltalk I didn't do. 5 copies cost me 200 dollars. I expected to hand out a 100 more copies to the Paltalk friends of the host. Why? I was seeking addresses of other traders who had been vetted. My wish was not granted. I was stringing along all these people.

Posted by cdcaveman on 08-01-12 09:09 PM:

Haha... "doesn't do it for me"

Posted by jack hershey on 08-01-12 09:09 PM:

Quote from Wide Tailz:

I am not impressed with your performance.

glad to hear that; contrarily, most people who see my performance (as you have, I presume) think otherwise.

Please post the basis of your judgement so others can see how you got to learn of my performance.

Posted by cdcaveman on 08-01-12 09:12 PM:

Why does anyone care about anyone's performance unless your trying sell it!

Posted by jack hershey on 08-02-12 12:28 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

Why does anyone care about anyone's performance unless your trying sell it!

copy catting and coattailing are important for passive tradesr/investors who wish to be wealthy in a brief period of time.

Say you wish to double your capital every 3 or 4 days. you can have your broker do that for you by coatailling someone else's performance.

Its wednesday, do you want to have twice the capital next wednesday?

Posted by cdcaveman on 08-02-12 01:33 AM:

thats called front running.. thats like selling a short sale house to a friend and being a silent partner.. or being travelocity and a plane carrier in collusion gaming your internet price requests.. first time you go.. its 210 for a ticket.. you go back same computer.. its 230.. and funny thing is you go directly to delta and its 260... but if you were to try the request on another computer all together.. delta might be cheaper then your orginial request to travelocity. as well boom you as well find travelocity is cheaper on a first request on a different computer then your second request on the previous computer.. its going on everywhere..
i wouldn't believe anyone who didn't tell me that there isn't teams of quants analyizing how the majority of the players are gaugin the next market move so that they can front run them.. or in another way take their money..

Posted by cornix on 08-02-12 04:58 AM:

Quote from jack hershey:

...

In conclusion, the vast majority of beggining potential traders keep their focus on repeated failure. finally, they accomplish quitting trading and then they tell others about what they cannot do.

True that. That's why trading and traders are so interesting from psychological point of view. Situation of constant ambiguity creates perfect conditions for classic psychological phenomena associated with beliefs, success, failure, self-control etc.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 08-02-12 05:05 AM:

Quote from cdcaveman:

Why does anyone care about anyone's performance unless your trying sell it!

Probably those who ask for those, either subconsciously (or even consciously) want to see the proof that trading is possible (to confirm their hopes about it) or hear a refuse to confirm their beliefs that it's impossible (in their logic, everyone who refuses to spend his/her valuable time to proove them what they ask is a loser too

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 08-02-12 07:53 AM:

Jack Hershey,

I have one idea why so much negativity around your teachings. When I got interested in it back in 2007 and we chatted about it, it looked good, but during discussion on the forum it often leaves impression like you state the possibility to close/reverse nearly every trade for a nominal profit and refuse to accept the definition of nominal loss. Hence so much suspection from people, especially those, who have experience.

I wonder if that's really your idea or was some misconception somewhere in the process of delivering your ideas to the public?

P. S. To me process of extracting of money from markets is the continuous process not divided to single trades as much as possible. Thus single trades can be winners or losers, but extraction process is a guaranteed result, which is effectively a "real" Holy Grail.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cdcaveman on 08-02-12 08:01 AM:

Gosh this jack hershey guy is like the owner of chic flia in the et world

Posted by sheda on 08-02-12 08:59 AM:

In conclusion, the vast majority of beggining potential traders keep their focus on repeated failure

Yep ! Because when one loses there wallet, they do not learn " how to look for it better " they learn how to protect it more and make sure its always in there pocket... the emotion of loss comes out in trading to and as emotion reinforces learning so heavily the unaware among us simply learn to lose..... oh I can do it here...they lose!!! they just lose!!!

Posted by cornix on 08-02-12 09:08 AM:

Quote from sheda:

Yep ! Because when one loses there wallet, they do not learn " how to look for it better " they learn how to protect it more and make sure its always in there pocket... the emotion of loss comes out in trading to and as emotion reinforces learning so heavily the unaware among us simply learn to lose..... oh I can do it here...they lose!!! they just lose!!!

Yea, and it becomes their worst fear, very hard to overcome. Only fantastic focus and willpower allow to keep doing things right to eventually get the winning experience and mental/emotional associations related to trading then change... for a few who get to that stage.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by jack hershey on 08-03-12 12:46 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Jack Hershey,

I have one idea why so much negativity around your teachings. When I got interested in it back in 2007 and we chatted about it, it looked good, but during discussion on the forum it often leaves impression like you state the possibility to close/reverse nearly every trade for a nominal profit and refuse to accept the definition of nominal loss. Hence so much suspection from people, especially those, who have experience.

I wonder if that's really your idea or was some misconception somewhere in the process of delivering your ideas to the public?

P. S. To me process of extracting of money from markets is the continuous process not divided to single trades as much as possible. Thus single trades can be winners or losers, but extraction process is a guaranteed result, which is effectively a "real" Holy Grail.

Recently, I put that question to rest.

I considered samples and where the p< 0.05 fit into the picture.

To do this I started with one person and that failed. Another person chimed in and dropped the ball, too.

The sample grew sufficiently in each case.

Recently I just asked a person to contribute an Excel spread sheet that he used or to make an Excel up that would be suitable in his opinion. I was shooting blanks, yet once again. In the past I have asked the same question and I have gotten a 100% non response.

I would say that the posting I have done provides a good sample. In the sample, any person who wishes can skew it to cause me to have some poor looking trades from a money velocity point of view. BUT, it is also true that the trades do demonstrate the importance of the principle of always being on the currect side of the market.

I did about 100 reversals after opening bar entries and before bar 78 exits. At no time during RTH was it unclear which side of the market I was on nor where the profit segment began or ended.

Anyone who wishes can do the tabulation. Mostly people do not make any effort, except as you say, they just fuel their suspicions out of ignorance. But they do not use the ignore button and then just make comments that are unfounded.

The summary of my views is that I follow a system and the money takes care of itself. There is a lot of interpretation of what I say. I do not correct the views others express usually.

One of the recent core abridgements by a detractor recently was: always in; always makes 3x the dailly range and never takes any losses. This strongly suppports those who have suspicions and who may have a lot of trading experience.

Today, someone posted a wikipedia source. I read it and made a comment. My comment is alone in the comments section. All other comments were in the approval category where 100% of the comments are reported. A neat use by wikipedia of the comment results. May be some readers will think my negative comment is from a person who is like all the other commentors. I posted one sentence: "I was looking for the use of the Scientific Method."

As you state and I agree with you, the record of comments by experienced traders is that they are suspicious of me. It is not that my comments are lengthy so much as it is that I speak in a language that is foreign to them. This is not a criticism of them it is just a fact that I describe the market in detail and from a Scientific point of view. They do what they do and I do what I do. There is very little common ground.

So, as may be seen, I have an advantage gotten by my choice of where I fit into the infinite scheme of things. I am parasitic, front running, technical (Scientific) extracting-the-full-offer-of-the-market, always in and always on the correct side of the market trader. My presenting level of trading is advanced beginner. My personal level of trading is expert.

If someone imposes on me, then I answer their need or want; they also get the consequences of my answer.

Trade Navigator is doing a training session somewhere on the 15th to 17th of september. I may go s a paying customer. I do not use their platinum level and they are touting its usage. Therefore, I may not be allowed to attend their meeting. I phoned them to find out where it is. I left a message since I called early in the RTH and they were not open at that time.

Posted by cdcaveman on 08-03-12 12:50 AM:

We are already.transitioning into talking about.paying for some
.. jack I love you.. I'm going to come up with a product for you to sell haha

Posted by Wide Tailz on 08-03-12 01:05 AM:

Quote from jack hershey:

If someone imposes on me,

I think it's the other way around. In every thread where you create another episode of The Jack Hershey Show, there are four elements that are conspicuously missing.....

1. Proof that you trade

2. Students who "graduated"

3. Concise writing

4. Risk management

Not to mention respect for the original topic......

Posted by cdcaveman on 08-03-12 03:53 AM:

i just wanna say.. anyone that really knows a subject can more easily put things to where an idiot would understand them.. (like myself) ...
Heres good ole Albert.. "If you can't explain something simply, you don't know enough about it. " Be frank.. realize everyone isn't at astro physics math.. We all weren't phd statisticians. And making yourself seem smarter with the level of complexity of your language just makes you look like a jerk.. And we aren't interested in buying anything thank you

Posted by ExchangeBonds on 08-03-12 04:16 AM:

I've never seen someone spew so much bs, so consistently and in every post. The small fact is that if your system was half as good as you say it is, you'd be a billionaire. That is why no one with half a brain believes you. "Always on the right side of the market." Really?

Posted by cdcaveman on 08-03-12 04:21 AM:

this guy must totally get a hard on for these kind of responses.. cause he sure invokes alot of them hahah

Posted by cornix on 08-03-12 05:45 AM:

I have nothing against Jack, even appreciate time spent chatting with him (when I had a different username here ), but regarding performance... When asked, almost any trader can give calls or show his/her trades, there is no problem about it unless you exploit some rare edge, which can easily be eroded if someone follows you.

But when someone refuses to make a few calls or show a few trades (no need for actual $ figures of profit, that's confidential info and it would be unpolite to ask for that for any normally socialized person, unless a trader is willing to show it publicly him/herself)... it makes other people ask themselves a question... why so?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by pythontrader on 08-03-12 08:33 AM:

Quote from jack hershey:

So, as may be seen, I have an advantage gotten by my choice of where I fit into the infinite scheme of things. I am parasitic, front running, technical (Scientific) extracting-the-full-offer-of-the-market, always in and always on the correct side of the market trader. My presenting level of trading is advanced beginner. My personal level of trading is expert.

If someone imposes on me, then I answer their need or want; they also get the consequences of my answer.

Trade Navigator is doing a training session somewhere on the 15th to 17th of september. I may go s a paying customer. I do not use their platinum level and they are touting its usage. Therefore, I may not be allowed to attend their meeting. I phoned them to find out where it is. I left a message since I called early in the RTH and they were not open at that time.

Jacky, take your meds, please. It is me,your doctor trader. It will be alright, ok? Nothing to worry about... Liz will be waiting for you. Just take your meds.

We will meet tomorrow,watch television, talk about reversing, post on ET, drink tea with Liz. There will be a lot of your friends all dressed the same from the Navigator platinum ok? Just take your medication and go to sleep now.
And you were absolutely right, the meaning of your communication is the response that you get. Swallow the meds... Good boy. Sweet dreams.

Lights went off. The patient fell asleep.

Posted by FreakofNature on 08-03-12 08:57 AM:

Quote from jack hershey:

I do not use their platinum level and they are touting its usage. Therefore, I may not be allowed to attend their meeting.

See this right here gives you away, if you could 3x, hell, 1x range a day, you would not give a crap about pesky subscriptions like this.

In fact, you would be a billionaire, registered with the most wealthy persons in the world, listed in Forbes and what not.

Only idiots follow you, but you are no idiot, you are in fact, a sick demented twisted old man, that takes pleasure into deceiving traders looking for guidance.

Posted by pythontrader on 08-03-12 09:11 AM:

Doctor:"Jacky, take your meds, please. It is me,your doctor trader. It will be alright, ok? Nothing to worry about... Liz will be waiting for you. "

Jack: " Oh really! Great!!! Who is Liz?"

Doctor:" The one using DADA you know... The Liz?! Ok... it is not important anyway just take your meds."

Jack: " I can't. I have to tell everybody how great I'm" Why are the detractors using OODA? I use MADA. I'm a scientific terrific parasitic trader."

Doctor:"Ok, Ok, calm down.We will meet tomorrow,watch television, talk about reversing, post on ET, drink tea with Liz and be always in. There will be a lot of your friends all dressed the same from the Navigator platinum ok? Just take your medication and go to sleep now.
And you were absolutely right, the meaning of your communication is the response that you get. Swallow the meds... Good boy. Sweet dreams."

Lights went off. The patient fell asleep with a peace of paper with loggin on it and a message to a mysterious Spydertrader on it. Tell them the differencies read the message... Million hits in an ET thread...

Posted by Fahad_s on 08-03-12 11:05 AM:

I trade before intraday for little time, but no good results.. Now I trade longer term, better results. I think daytrading you need to be special person who have high stress bariers.

Posted by pythontrader on 08-03-12 12:10 PM:

Quote from pythontrader:

Doctor:"Jacky, take your meds, please. It is me,your doctor trader. It will be alright, ok? Nothing to worry about... Liz will be waiting for you. "

Jack: " Oh really! Great!!! Who is Liz?"

Doctor:" The one using DADA you know... The Liz?! Ok... it is not important anyway just take your meds."

Jack: " I can't. I have to tell everybody how great I'm" Why are the detractors using OODA? I use MADA. I'm a scientific terrific parasitic trader."

Doctor:"Ok, Ok, calm down.We will meet tomorrow,watch television, talk about reversing, post on ET, drink tea with Liz and be always in. There will be a lot of your friends all dressed the same from the Navigator platinum ok? Just take your medication and go to sleep now.
And you were absolutely right, the meaning of your communication is the response that you get. Swallow the meds... Good boy. Sweet dreams."

Lights went off. The patient fell asleep with a peace of paper with loggin on it and a message to a mysterious Spydertrader on it. Tell them the differencies read the message... Million hits in an ET thread...

Will be continued...

Posted by Fleming Snopes on 08-03-12 12:32 PM:

Quote from pythontrader:

the meaning of your communication is the response that you get

Are you and I the only two people on ET who understand and use NLP? You will find the first usage of it on ET here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...get#post1120380

So long ago as ET goes.

It might help you shed your addiction to Jack if you realize that he is the L. Ron Hubbard of trading. Let that rock drop.

Posted by ocean5 on 08-03-12 12:48 PM:

Run, run, run! - Vincent! Run at thunder, girl! Thunder can't hurt! Harmless noise! Bullshit! You deceitful old fuck! Hershey, you fuck!

How could you betray so many people??

Posted by pythontrader on 08-03-12 01:20 PM:

Quote from Fleming Snopes:

Are you and I the only two people on ET who understand and use NLP? You will find the first usage of it on ET here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...get#post1120380

So long ago as ET goes.

It might help you shed your addiction to Jack if you realize that he is the L. Ron Hubbard of trading. Let that rock drop.

Guilty as charged.., Hypo. Guilty as charged...

I would like to drop that rock, but don't you think Jack is just too fragile for that? And what reason will I have to post on ET when he won't be able to put his bones together after that?

I mean ET would lose the most valuable supporter of traffic... Wouldn't you agree?

Posted by Fleming Snopes on 08-03-12 01:31 PM:

Quote from pythontrader:

Guilty as charged.., Hypo. Guilty as charged...

I would like to drop that rock, but don't you think Jack is just too fragile for that? And what reason will I have to post on ET when he won't be able to put his bones together after that?

I mean ET would lose the most valuable supporter of traffic... Wouldn't you agree?

Greater than that loss would be the real-time ET IQ testing he provides. Invaluable. I continue to read him closely because his being 13 years older than I am he gives me hope that I might still get it together and become a trading cult leader.

BTW, when I wrote "Drop that rock" I was referring to the psychological exercise of holding your arm out straight with a heavy rock in hand until you can hold it no more. "There, doesn't that feel better?"

Posted by pythontrader on 08-03-12 01:39 PM:

Quote from Fleming Snopes:

BTW, when I wrote "Drop that rock" I was referring to the psychological exercise of holding your arm out straight with a heavy rock in hand until you can hold it no more. "There, doesn't that feel better?"

Ahhhaaaaaaa. Ok I understand now. You meant I should drop that rock on Jack's head? I thought that would be too brutal.

Posted by Fleming Snopes on 08-03-12 01:51 PM:

Quote from pythontrader:

Ahhhaaaaaaa. Ok I understand now. You meant I should drop that rock on Jack's head? I thought that would be too brutal.

I mean that you should quit aggravating yourself. I assure you that you aggravate yourself more than you aggravate him. I have been dancing with him for over ten years now. At first I thought he was serious, as most newbs do. A lot of time wasted there, but hey, I was usually wasted myself. Next I thought he was teasing, hinting at good ideas. That proved to be a fruited line of devestigation. Now I think of the movie "Dinner With Schmucks", which in the oraginal French version was "Le Diner Avec Cons" (dinner with cunts). Jack is mocking the blind grasping greedy stupidity of newbs. And dissing ET in general. But he still teases. A few days ago he posted something I discovered that I didn't think anyone else but me knew. So I changed my opinion about whether he trades or not. He wouldn't know what he teased if he didn't trade.

Posted by Fleming Snopes on 08-03-12 01:56 PM:

Go read Jack's very first post here. Note in retrospect the sly mocking tone. Then read his next ten or so posts. They presage all that followed. Great long-running theatre! And my tonguewistic analysis still proves that he is a conjoined personality. Having dinner with schmucks.

Posted by Fleming Snopes on 08-03-12 02:03 PM:

Quote from jack hershey:

Recently, I put that question to rest.

I considered samples and where the p< 0.05 fit into the picture.

To do this I started with one person and that failed. Another person chimed in and dropped the ball, too.

The sample grew sufficiently in each case.

Recently I just asked a person to contribute an Excel spread sheet that he used or to make an Excel up that would be suitable in his opinion. I was shooting blanks, yet once again. In the past I have asked the same question and I have gotten a 100% non response.

I would say that the posting I have done provides a good sample. In the sample, any person who wishes can skew it to cause me to have some poor looking trades from a money velocity point of view. BUT, it is also true that the trades do demonstrate the importance of the principle of always being on the currect side of the market.

I did about 100 reversals after opening bar entries and before bar 78 exits. At no time during RTH was it unclear which side of the market I was on nor where the profit segment began or ended.

Anyone who wishes can do the tabulation. Mostly people do not make any effort, except as you say, they just fuel their suspicions out of ignorance. But they do not use the ignore button and then just make comments that are unfounded.

The summary of my views is that I follow a system and the money takes care of itself. There is a lot of interpretation of what I say. I do not correct the views others express usually.

One of the recent core abridgements by a detractor recently was: always in; always makes 3x the dailly range and never takes any losses. This strongly suppports those who have suspicions and who may have a lot of trading experience.

Today, someone posted a wikipedia source. I read it and made a comment. My comment is alone in the comments section. All other comments were in the approval category where 100% of the comments are reported. A neat use by wikipedia of the comment results. May be some readers will think my negative comment is from a person who is like all the other commentors. I posted one sentence: "I was looking for the use of the Scientific Method."

As you state and I agree with you, the record of comments by experienced traders is that they are suspicious of me. It is not that my comments are lengthy so much as it is that I speak in a language that is foreign to them. This is not a criticism of them it is just a fact that I describe the market in detail and from a Scientific point of view. They do what they do and I do what I do. There is very little common ground.

So, as may be seen, I have an advantage gotten by my choice of where I fit into the infinite scheme of things. I am parasitic, front running, technical (Scientific) extracting-the-full-offer-of-the-market, always in and always on the correct side of the market trader. My presenting level of trading is advanced beginner. My personal level of trading is expert.

If someone imposes on me, then I answer their need or want; they also get the consequences of my answer.

Trade Navigator is doing a training session somewhere on the 15th to 17th of september. I may go s a paying customer. I do not use their platinum level and they are touting its usage. Therefore, I may not be allowed to attend their meeting. I phoned them to find out where it is. I left a message since I called early in the RTH and they were not open at that time.

Look at this one. Jack did not write this. Maybe Saint Liz did. Or Archangel Spydie. No grammatical errors. Well reasoned. Few typing errors. No spelling errors. No misused words. Unaccustomed use of subordinate santa clauses. No repetition of old posts. D'ordinaire, you can copy a short new Jack sentence, search on it, and find one or more near or exact matches. I have long suspected a random cut-and-paste approach to Jack posting. Also sometimes it is clear that the conjoined minds sit around a computer drinking beers, yukking it up, and writing in "Naked Came the Stranger" style. I am insanely frustrated that they don't invite me to participate. I can mock ET with the best of them.

Posted by pythontrader on 08-03-12 02:14 PM:

Quote from Fleming Snopes:

Look at this one. Jack did not write this. No grammatical errors. Well reasoned. Few typing errors. No spelling errors. No misused words. Unaccustomed use of subordinate santa clauses. No repetition of old posts. D'ordinaire, you can copy a short new Jack sentence, search on it, and find one or more near or exact matches. I have long suspected a random cut-and-paste approach to Jack posting.

You have to be kidding me. Are you serious? Hypo, come on. Stop disappointing me... Well reasoned?!Take the last paragraph for instance. WTF was it? No repetition?

PS:Thanks for pointing to the movie. Will watch it sometime.

Posted by Fleming Snopes on 08-03-12 02:21 PM:

Quote from pythontrader:

You have to be kidding me. Are you serious? Hypo, come on. Stop disappointing me... Well reasoned?! No repetition?

PS:Thanks for pointing to the movie. Will watch it sometime.

So I eggsaggerated. But you see the difference in style from the usual incoherent rants. I am minded to add that there is indeed a cultic undercurrent. Years ago I was on the receiving end of the most viciously vituperative PM exchange you can invagine. Cruel, pointed character attacks in the misguided opinion that I have any character. And several times Jack read me so well that he plunged his hand into my heart and squeezed. But he didn't know that I don't have one. Make no missnake. He is VERY good at NLP.

Speaking of movies, this personality inexplicably doesn't have MarketSlurper on ignore. He recently posted a link to the upcoming film "The Master", a loose depiction of the style of L. Ron Hubbard. Or maybe it is about Jack? I am so confused.

Posted by pythontrader on 08-03-12 02:35 PM:

Quote from Fleming Snopes:

So I eggsaggerated. But you see the difference in style from the usual incoherent rants. I am minded to add that there is indeed a cultic undercurrent. Years ago I was on the receiving end of the most viciously vituperative PM exchange you can invagine. Cruel, pointed character attacks in the misguided opinion that I have any character. And several times Jack read me so well that he plunged his hand into my heart and squeezed. But he didn't know that I don't have one. Make no missnake. He is VERY good at NLP.

Speaking of movies, this personality inexplicably doesn't have MarketSlurper on ignore. He recently posted a link to the upcoming film "The Master", a loose depiction of the style of L. Ron Hubbard. Or maybe it is about Jack? I am so confused.

Well. That is the Hypo I knew. I almost dropped dead. You scared the shit out of me. Well, I guess the only difference between you, me and Jack is that we both are lovely assholes but he is an evil one.

PS: I hope I provided some clarity.

Posted by Fleming Snopes on 08-03-12 02:52 PM:

Quote from pythontrader:

Well. That is the Hypo I knew. I almost dropped dead. You scared the shit out of me. Well, I guess the only difference between you, me and Jack is that we both are lovely assholes but he is an evil one.

PS: I hope I provided some clarity.

Your garden variety manic cultic guru will spew forth in push-of-speech style a machine-gun stream of derivative plattitudes and platypusses. Some of them will be true, and resonate with the prospective accolyte (or in Jack's case, accolite). I read him closely because some of the word vomit contains re-edible pieces. Remember, he is not one person, he is biblical Legion. So sometimes a gem of truth finds its way out, like an accidentally swallowed diamond.

Posted by pythontrader on 08-03-12 03:04 PM:

Quote from Fleming Snopes:

Your garden variety manic cultic guru will spew forth in push-of-speech style a machine-gun stream of derivative plattitudes and platypusses. Some of them will be true, and resonate with the prospective accolyte (or in Jack's case, accolite). I read him closely because some of the word vomit contains re-edible pieces. Remember, he is not one person, he is biblical Legion. So sometimes a gem of truth finds its way out, like an accidentally swallowed diamond.

You have to be drunk... Hypo, stop this nasty habit. It is 11 in the morning. Start looking for some pussy instead.

Posted by Fleming Snopes on 08-03-12 03:11 PM:

Quote from pythontrader:

You have to be drunk... Hypo, stop this nasty habit. It is 11 in the morning. Start looking for some pussy instead.

It's Friday. When I as working I loved Fridays. Now that I am trading I fucking hate them. And Mondays, too. So my choice was drink or shoot. Never both. But as I tweaked some codas yesterday I decided to stay home and watch them work. But that is so dull, like watching a five-minute chart, that I am two-thirds of the way through a bottle of Piper Sonoma Brut, conveniently on sale this week six for $14.64 each.

One of those codes, BTW, is a hack at realizing Jack's "always in" dictum. Not possible IMO on five-minute, but on one-minute I am getting close.

Posted by pythontrader on 08-03-12 03:24 PM:

Quote from Fleming Snopes:

It's Friday. When I as working I loved Fridays. Now that I am trading I fucking hate them. And Mondays, too. So my choice was drink or shoot. Never both. But as I tweaked some codas yesterday I decided to stay home and watch them work. But that is so dull, like watching a five-minute chart, that I am two-thirds of the way through a bottle of Piper Sonoma Brut, conveniently on sale this week six for $14.64 each.

One of those codes, BTW, is a hack at realizing Jack's "always in" dictum. Not possible IMO on five-minute, but on one-minute I am getting close.

I have to go lad... Can you take over Jacky for me? Stay profitable.

Posted by Fleming Snopes on 08-03-12 03:31 PM:

Quote from pythontrader:

I have to go lad... Can you take over Jacky for me? Stay profitable.

I am out of the Jack hairassment game. Better sport elsewhere. Trade well.

Posted by oilfxpro on 08-03-12 08:48 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital.

A few internet marketeers are selling motoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220707

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220676

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218977

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220513

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218160

This thread was about day trading and day gambling and the odds of success .One has to trade it on support and resistance , that is confirmed support and resistance as confirmed by price action and market.

Since none of you including Jack Hershey trade real money . the thread has gone of course.

Please dont post multi billion $ Oanda demo accounts.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 08-03-12 09:01 PM:

Quote from oraclewizard77:

Jack H has produced over a 1,000 pages for free. He recently called a short on open for the market that proved to be correct. Now no one likes anyone to be successful, but at least he is not going to charge you money to learn his method. However, it takes time to read over 1,000 pages and most don't want to put in the effort or time to become a good trader.

I once watched a Kama Sutra cartoon , with Kama showing his acts with his woife by aim for target in mid air on one chandelier and the missus on another chandelier.Now Jack's thousand pages can be put on less than 6 pages , a lot of words are like snake oil , a few words say a lot.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by jack hershey on 08-03-12 09:30 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

I once watched a Kama Sutra cartoon , with Kama showing his acts with his woife by aim for target in mid air on one chandelier and the missus on another chandelier.Now Jack's thousand pages can be put on less than 6 pages , a lot of words are like snake oil , a few words say a lot.

Just go to the one pagers I posted on each application of PEP and code them and use the code to trade.

If you need the code corrected e mail it to me. We have techies here.

Posted by Bob111 on 08-28-12 06:54 PM:

The DIY Investor

http://www.smartmoney.com/invest/st...-1344974209772/

Only about 1 percent of traders are consistently profitable over several years, and investors who trade more frequently tend to underperform the market, according to Brad Barber, a finance professor at the UC Davis Graduate School of Management who has done extensive research on the issue.

field day for emg!

Posted by cdcaveman on 08-29-12 01:08 AM:

That's because there are so many outright blow ups it skews the results in favor of the random walker

Posted by ssss on 08-29-12 08:39 AM:

Only about 1 percent of traders are consistently profitable over several years, and investors who trade more frequently tend to underperform the market, according to Brad Barber, a finance professor at the UC Davis Graduate School of Management who has done extensive research on the issue.

From this one 1% professional must be subtracted

In retail sector profitability is lower as 1 %
-------------------------------------------------

This 1 % is profitable from fortune ... as in lotto ,where
from 10-100 mln operator's exist one ,which won 10-100 $

It it zero summ game ,where retail are dissadvantaged

Posted by ssss on 08-29-12 03:26 PM:

Error correction

was -
-----
This 1 % is profitable from fortune ... as in lotto ,where
from 10-100 mln operator's exist one ,which won 10-100 $
must be
--------
This 1 % is profitable from fortune ... as in lotto ,where
from 10-100 mln operator's exist one ,which won 10-100 mln $

7/8 march 2007 most greatest win in lotto

U.S. Mega Millions

two players won each 190 mln $ .Chans was 1/176 mln

Posted by ssss on 08-29-12 03:28 PM:

oilfxpro wrote -

....Please dont post multi billion $ Oanda demo accounts.

-------------------------------

....belov are trading record of best performer's

all real money

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=247149

Corrected list of top performers with results from march 2009 (41 contest months )

first place

1.october 2011 -12725 % canada A.e 1296.08$-166226.28$
2.may 2010 - 3109 % poland A.e. 532.32 $ -17087.65$
3.dec 2009 -2931.95% china A.e. 725.24 $-21989$
4. sen.2010 -2860.58% canada A.e. 546.74$ -16186.95$
5. dec 2011 -2464.12% china A.e. 507.97$-13024$
6. maj 2011 -2116 % china A.e. 523.38$-11600.14 $
7. march 2009 -1951 % hk A.e. 961.10$-19714.24$
8..februar 2012-1918.36% china A.e. 13928$-281128$
9. jun 2012 -1809 % china A.e. 505.50$-9638.01$
10.march 2011 -1711 % macao A.e. 2122.45$-38456.03$
11.april 2009 -1703 % china A.e. 500.78$-9033.73$
12 .sent 2011 -1627 % china A.e. 502.49$-8678.72$

second place
march 2009 -1918.67% usa 2-place

CONTEST STATISTICS

I'm glad you have recently included weekly updates to the monthly KOM contests.

Another feature that I think would be fun and interesting to keep are statistics for each month's KOM competition:

1) How many active contestants are in the competition for that month.
2) What percentage of contestants made money and lost money.
3) What is the percentage range gain/loss for the overall competition

ex) There were 5,000 eligible traders.
30% Finished positive for the month.
08-16-2010 05:06 PM

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/king...statistics.html
----------------------------

5000 *41 month march 2009 -juli 2012 = approx 205 000 attempt's

Author suspected more ( 1 mln attempts ) as each account with
more as 500 $ account equity -automatic entry

Posted by ssss on 08-29-12 03:31 PM:

Pause ...

with Miss Italy Pamela Camassa

1. Tango

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOrfbraNkxU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HmgFzYub3vc

2. Poker strip

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gj10d3EiqLA

Posted by emg on 08-29-12 05:48 PM:

Quote from Bob111:

The DIY Investor

http://www.smartmoney.com/invest/st...-1344974209772/

field day for emg!

More than 90% of small traders lose. They just lose!

__________________
More Than 90% of Small Traders Lose. THEY JUST LOSE!!!!!

Posted by IeatGoldmanSnax on 08-29-12 09:10 PM:

Quote from emg:

More than 90% of small traders lose. They just lose!

. If I would have listened to garbage like that I would have been stuck being a loser for the rest of my life. Which is probably your case.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-02-12 12:03 AM:

I have finally found an article which really sums up day trading.It is well worth a read.Day traders are doomed for failure.

http://www.rb-trading.com/article10.html

However, even trend-following tools that work in intermediate to long-term time frames won't work in day trading. This is because the trend component is so very small in short-term data that you must use a highly effective method to overcome the costs of trading.Tradeable trends do not show up often in the very short term. They certainly are not present every day. That is why the person who tries to day trade at least once every day, and perhaps even more often, is doomed to failure. The more often you day trade, the more likely it is that you will be a long-term loser.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 09-02-12 04:53 AM:

Now as you opened my eyes, I will stop day trading right now... no, wait, now is Sunday, OK, tomorrow... no, wait, tomorrow is a holiday and I don't trade anyway.... oh well... Some day.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by bigarrow on 09-02-12 05:07 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

http://www.rb-trading.com/article10.html

Good article oilfxpro, thanks.

__________________
"I don't wear no Stetson But I'm willin' to bet son That I'm as big a Texan as you are"

Posted by Xspurt on 09-02-12 06:09 AM:

R-MESA

10 yrs + top rated by Futures Truth.

The exact same multiple trends exist in all time frames. Goes to show that one mans mathematical proof of failure is another man's mathematical opportunity.

I could show the logs of how I called a switch from a 30 second trend to a 2 hr trend last week, but then that's impossible, or it's just a fluke.

__________________
Xspurt

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-02-12 06:22 AM:

Quote from Xspurt:

R-MESA

10 yrs + top rated by Futures Truth.

The exact same multiple trends exist in all time frames. Goes to show that one mans mathematical proof of failure is another man's mathematical opportunity.

I could show the logs of how I called a switch from a 30 second trend to a 2 hr trend last week, but then that's impossible, or it's just a fluke.

The article is so realistic and rationale , statistically 80 % of those lower time trends fail.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 09-02-12 06:24 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

The article is so realistic and rationale , statistically 80 % of those lower time trends fail.

Think about it: if 80% of trends fail, it means market generally does what? Right, ranges... So now what stops you from day trading reversals based on this valuable information, huh?

P. S. Actually intraday trends are just as great as multi-day trends, they indeed happen not often, but when they do, they provide excellent profit opportunities.

P. P. S. Stop reading someone else's B. S. and just WATCH the stuff yourself until you see the reality.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Xspurt on 09-02-12 07:20 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

The article is so realistic and rationale , statistically 80 % of those lower time trends fail.

How can a trend fail? It's impossible. Logic says if it fails then it was not a trend OR it was a trend and has completed it duration and that calls for a reversal.

If you expect it to continue forever then of course it fails.

A trend can change: it can reverse - a new trend can set up, but it is a misnomer to say 80% of trends fail. This is seriously poor trend reading.

When you start off with the wrong assumptions of what a trend is you soon get the results to prove what you believe. For over 10 yrs R-MESA proved cyclical trend analysis worked and Futures Truth confirmed the results throughout that period.

The exact same trends are present in all time frames even below 1 min. A 1 min TF cannot control a 1 hr TF, but when both line up then the 60m TF becomes the master trend. Inside this the 1 min TF the trend will change many times but the master trend is up.

__________________
Xspurt

Posted by cornix on 09-02-12 07:22 AM:

Quote from Xspurt:

How can a trend fail? It's impossible. Logic says if it fails then it was not a trend OR it was a trend and has completed it duration and that calls for a reversal.

If you expect it to continue forever then of course it fails.

A trend can change: it can reverse - a new trend can set up, but it is a misnomer to say 80% of trends fail. This is seriously poor trend reading.

When you start off with the wrong assumptions of what a trend is you soon get the results to prove what you believe. For over 10 yrs R-MESA proved cyclical trend analysis worked and Futures Truth confirmed the results throughout that period.

The exact same trends are present in all time frames even below 1 min. A 1 min TF cannot control a 1 hr TF, but when both line up then the 60m TF becomes the master trend. Inside this the 1 min TF the trend will change many times but the master trend is up.

So true... If in someone's terms 80% trends fail it means just one: that person's ability to spot trends (as opposed to just quick directional swings) is very poor.

A perfect example of a real intraday trend was last Friday in Euro.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-02-12 08:09 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

.

P. P. S. Stop reading someone else's B. S. and just WATCH the stuff yourself until you see the reality.

Took a few years to find a decent article , compared to 98% B S posted on forums .

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 09-02-12 08:28 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Took a few years to find a decent article , compared to 98% B S posted on forums .

What makes you think that article is "decent" and is worth attention?

P. S. True about 98% of B. S. on forums too... But don't fall prey to common fallacy - faith in what's written/talked about in the media. In reality it's usually no better than any other B. S. just packed better and promoted better.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-02-12 10:30 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

What makes you think that article is "decent" and is worth attention?

This is the one article that lay it down in a summary , and it is everything that I have seen proven on statistical back testing over 10 years.Not only does the article put it concisely with good reasoning , but it is confirmed by other studies made using automated programs and back testing.

Now compared against the the biased posts here of system sellers , mentors , trading educators , rebuttal teams ,marketing stooges and their accomplices etc.The posts of these people have no credibility.

The forums have one agenda ,to make money for owners and are biased towards sponsors who pay them.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 09-02-12 10:45 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

This is the one article that lay it down in a summary , and it is everything that I have seen proven on statistical back testing over 10 years.Not only does the article put it concisely with good reasoning , but it is confirmed by other studies made using automated programs and back testing.

Now compared against the the biased posts here of system sellers , mentors , trading educators , rebuttal teams ,marketing stooges and their accomplices etc.The posts of these people have no credibility.

The forums have one agenda ,to make money for owners and are biased towards sponsors who pay them.

So you are like Robin Hood, struggling to prevent newbies from trying to day trade and losing?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-02-12 11:14 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

So you are like Robin Hood, struggling to prevent newbies from trying to day trade and losing?

I want them to hand their money over to the mentors, trading educators , bucket shop sponsors , scams , system sellers and trading pimps and brothels like prop firms , before the day trading takes it away from them.

I thought this was a unbiased opinions on E T , until the pricks started opening opening positive sentiments threads ,until a bigger prick comes along to open more threads than all the small pricks put together.

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Posted by cornix on 09-02-12 11:49 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

I want them to hand their money over to the mentors, trading educators , bucket shop sponsors , scams , system sellers and trading pimps and brothels like prop firms , before the day trading takes it away from them.

I thought this was a unbiased opinions on E T , until the pricks started opening opening positive sentiments threads ,until a bigger prick comes along to open more threads than all the small pricks put together.

What a comprehensive list of pricks who prevent 95% of wannabe traders become rich overnight. Sure world would be so much nicer without them, everyone would make a fortune trading and poverty would cease to exist.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Xspurt on 09-02-12 11:53 AM:

So if I post a chart without the time frame but tell you it is daily, then that is a chart that can be traded profitably.

But if I say, actually it is a 5 min chart - they you will say it can't be traded profitably.

Bet you can't tell the difference.

__________________
Xspurt

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-02-12 12:15 PM:

Quote from Xspurt:

So if I post a chart without the time frame but tell you it is daily, then that is a chart that can be traded profitably.

But if I say, actually it is a 5 min chart - they you will say it can't be traded profitably.

Bet you can't tell the difference.

It is not about time frames ,it is more about timing entries ,being on the right side of the market , but this entry is only one out of 10 aspects of trading , others are risk management , trade management , phsyche , exit , additional entries , money management ,re-entries , stops and targets.

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Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-02-12 04:07 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

It is not about time frames ,it is more about timing entries ,being on the right side of the market , but this entry is only one out of 10 aspects of trading , others are risk management , trade management , phsyche , exit , additional entries , money management ,re-entries , stops and targets.

Not really day trading fails primarily due to higher overhead costs than other time frames.
It really isn't all that hard to see.

It's kinda funny when you think about the HFT firms battling it out for 1 tick.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-02-12 04:11 PM:

Quote from Xspurt:

So if I post a chart without the time frame but tell you it is daily, then that is a chart that can be traded profitably.

But if I say, actually it is a 5 min chart - they you will say it can't be traded profitably.

Bet you can't tell the difference.

If your rules are to get flat at an arbitrary time say EOD (like in daytrading ),yeah it makes a huge difference.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-02-12 04:46 PM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

Not really day trading fails primarily due to higher overhead costs than other time frames.
It really isn't all that hard to see.

It's kinda funny when you think about the HFT firms battling it out for 1 tick.

Day trading suffers from spread costs which make a large % of profits , small profits /larger losses , not enough big trends intra day , noise and wind technical analysis , plenty of false breakouts and reversals , high volume trend breakdowns ,much false volatility due to economic news etc

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Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by trickshot on 09-02-12 05:35 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Day trading suffers from spread costs which make a large % of profits , small profits /larger losses , not enough big trends intra day , noise and wind technical analysis , plenty of false breakouts and reversals , high volume trend breakdowns ,much false volatility due to economic news etc

There are plenty of false breakouts and reversals on the higher time frames too, the only difference is that you don't suffer from exceptionally high frictional costs when you trade the higher time frames.

Take the ES for example, you lose 2 ticks (spread) + comm + potential 1 tick slippage each time you enter an intraday trade, its nearly impossible to overcome such costs unless your win rate is extremely high, or at least its impossible unless we get 2-3 times the trading range we are getting now.

Posted by Cheese on 09-02-12 05:36 PM:

Trading costs are immaterial to successful trading and are immaterial for successful day trading also.

Using CL the opportunities in each daily session follow each other just as night follows day - without fail. The essence is simple: if price starts going up you buy and if price starts going down you sell. That being so you are using probability for entries (or reversals).

Now you put in place a reliable system giving you your buy signals and your sell signals. To this you add your capability to trade with confidence.

As always, as in any serious endeavour to make substantial money, it is the few and not the many who succeed.

Posted by trickshot on 09-02-12 05:36 PM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

Not really day trading fails primarily due to higher overhead costs than other time frames.
It really isn't all that hard to see.

It's kinda funny when you think about the HFT firms battling it out for 1 tick.

HFTs are buying at the bid and selling at the ask, they can't lose unless they are doing something wrong.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-02-12 05:54 PM:

Quote from trickshot:

HFTs are buying at the bid and selling at the ask, they can't lose unless they are doing something wrong.

Sure they can, they lose out to the firm that somehow can do it faster.

I can't think of a worse business model, unless your firm is top dog.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-02-12 05:58 PM:

Quote from Cheese:

1)Trading costs are immaterial to successful trading and are immaterial for successful day trading also.

That's the stupidest idea I've seen outside the P&R forum.

Maybe even including P&R.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-02-12 06:11 PM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

That's the stupidest idea I've seen outside the P&R forum.

Maybe even including P&R.

+1

The main difference between traders who run their profits and day traders is the commission and slippage.A day trader might pay spread 5 to 10 times for entries and re-entries of say 1 tick , the trader running his profits with one trade will pay 1 tick , whereas the other trader paid 5 to 10 ticks daily.The less spreads make the trader profitable .

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Posted by halfwaythere on 09-02-12 08:33 PM:

Hey all, first time poster, and this thread was really quite amazing.

It's really no wonder to me why there are so many losers in the name of day trading, just look at the rampant pessimism and negative attitudes. Trade doesn't do my way? "IT MUST BE RIGGED" What a bunch of whiny girls.

I become profitable after 3 months of trading the TF. It's not rocket science, and I don't consider myself above average in intelligence.

Those who can - do. Those who can't - put there account in mine ;)

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 05:00 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

+1

The main difference between traders who run their profits and day traders is the commission and slippage.A day trader might pay spread 5 to 10 times for entries and re-entries of say 1 tick , the trader running his profits with one trade will pay 1 tick , whereas the other trader paid 5 to 10 ticks daily.The less spreads make the trader profitable .

Let's take an example of two trading businesses:

#1 has monthly trading cost expenses of say 50% of the profit and net ROC of say 100% per year.

#2 has monthly trading cost expenses of 10% of the profit and net ROC of 25% per year.

Which one would you prefer to run?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 05:03 AM:

Quote from halfwaythere:

Hey all, first time poster, and this thread was really quite amazing.

It's really no wonder to me why there are so many losers in the name of day trading, just look at the rampant pessimism and negative attitudes. Trade doesn't do my way? "IT MUST BE RIGGED" What a bunch of whiny girls.

I become profitable after 3 months of trading the TF. It's not rocket science, and I don't consider myself above average in intelligence.

Those who can - do. Those who can't - put there account in mine ;)

That is what is good about this forum , rebuttal recruits turn up regularly.Thank Baron for this forum!

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 05:08 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Let's take an example of two trading businesses:

#1 has monthly trading cost expenses of say 50% of the profit and net ROC of say 100% per year.

#2 has monthly trading cost expenses of 10% of the profit and net ROC of 25% per year.

Which one would you prefer to run?

This is theoretical rebuttal ,but has no relevance to day trading

1) has cost of 80% of sales (day trading)

2) has cost of 20 % of sales (day trend/ swing trading)

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Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 05:13 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

This is theoretical rebuttal ,but has no relevance to day trading

1) has cost of 80% of sales (day trading)

2) has cost of 20 % of sales (day trend/ swing trading)

Let's make it cost of 80% / 20% of gross revenue:

if business #1 has net profit of 100% and business #2 has net profit of 25%, which one would you choose?

Why do you think people day trade, scalp and even HFT? What's their reasoning?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-03-12 05:16 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Let's take an example of two trading businesses:

#1 has monthly trading cost expenses of say 50% of the profit and net ROC of say 100% per year.

#2 has monthly trading cost expenses of 10% of the profit and net ROC of 25% per year.

Which one would you prefer to run?

You're not really serious are you?

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 05:18 AM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

You're not really serious are you?

Absolutely serious. Same question to you: what do you think is the reason people trade more frequently, when they could speculate intermediate-term with monthly/weekly charts only and play golf the rest of time?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 05:35 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Absolutely serious. Same question to you: what do you think is the reason people trade more frequently, when they could speculate intermediate-term with monthly/weekly charts only and play golf the rest of time?

because most retail (hft have different costs) are dumb noobs and have no knowledge of probabilities and costs .

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 05:37 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Let's make it cost of 80% / 20% of gross revenue:

if business #1 has net profit of 100% and business #2 has net profit of 25%, which one would you choose?

The risk cautious will go for 25% ,as the 100 % carries greater risks of failure.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 05:53 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

because most retail (hft have different costs) are dumb noobs and have no knowledge of probabilities and costs .

Did you just claim that ALL day traders, scalpers and HFT traders are dumb noobs who have no knowledge of probabilities and costs?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 05:55 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Did you just claim that ALL day traders, scalpers and HFT traders are dumb noobs who have no knowledge of probabilities and costs?

Most of them , the ones who hang around forums have different agenda ,most of them are pretenders and marketing merchants peddling something on the forums.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 05:55 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

The risk cautious will go for 25% ,as the 100 % carries greater risks of failure.

Why is the risk of failure inherently greater in the case of more frequent trading?

What if day trader places less % of his capital on the risk every time and is exposed to market for much shorter time, even in this case day trading is more risky?

And remember, we are comparing two already profitable approaches, with day trading approach being stated as yielding a few times more net profit.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 05:57 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Most of them , the ones who hang around forums have different agenda ,most of them are pretenders and marketing merchants peddling something on the forums.

How do you know that? Do you have comprehensive stats showing average IQ and level of understanding of risk and probabilities among day traders as well as comprehensive stats about what % of those who talk about it on forums are pretenders and/or marketers?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 06:03 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Why is the risk of failure inherently greater in the case of more frequent trading?

What if day trader places less % of his capital on the risk every time and is exposed to market for much shorter time, even in this case day trading is more risky?

And remember, we are comparing two already profitable approaches, with day trading approach being stated as yielding a few times more net profit.

These are all theoretical hindsight assumptions , in practical trading risks are greater with phsyche and emotions and perfect execution.There are no such profitable traders making 100 % on this forum.

In fact 95 % of them lose , because they have irrational visions , like yourself , about trading risks.

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Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 06:07 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

These are all theoretical hindsight assumptions , in practical trading risks are greater with phsyche and emotions and perfect execution.There are no such profitable traders making 100 % on this forum.

In fact 95 % of them lose , because they have irrational visions , like yourself , about trading risks.

How long did you day trade that you know for sure what are practical issues of day trading?

Do you claim there are no day traders on this forum making 100% ROC per year?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 06:07 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

How do you know that? Do you have comprehensive stats showing average IQ and level of understanding of risk and probabilities among day traders as well as comprehensive stats about what % of those who talk about it on forums are pretenders and/or marketers?

We did back tests on probabilities , and it is not related to IQ .The content of posters and rebuttal teams gives all the clues about the marketing men posting , their posting content gives more clues about their aliases.

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Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 06:08 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

We did back tests on probabilities , and it is not related to IQ .The content of posters and rebuttal teams gives all the clues about the marketing men posting , their posting content gives more clues about their aliases.

Are you sure what you consider "clues" is not your subjective perception, based on the fact you don't believe day trading is possible?

What exactly and how exactly did you backtest?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 06:09 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

How long did you day trade that you know for sure what are practical issues of day trading?

Do you claim there are no day traders on this forum making 100% ROC per year?

More than 5 years .

Yes.Common sense and compounding , which is lacking in these questions and rebuttals.

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Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 06:15 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

More than 5 years .

So you day traded for 5 years and failed? Or were you profitable?

Yes.Common sense and compounding , which is lacking in these questions and rebuttals.

What is "common sense"? And how does it tell you nobody of this forum participants makes 100% per year day trading?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 06:24 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

So you day traded for 5 years and failed? Or were you profitable?

[b]

What is "common sense"? And how does it tell you nobody of this forum participants makes 100% per year day trading?

I found it very difficult for the many reasons,facts and evidence presented .This is also backed by many posters and concise logical explanations , unlike may of the useless points made by some.If any of you pretenders made 100 % per annum , you would be billionaires within years.Simply compound it on a weekly basis .A lot of common sense is lacking in posts.

__________________
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Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 06:28 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

I found it very difficult for the many reasons and evidence presented .

So you quit, because you found it very difficult, right?

If any of you pretenders made 100 % per annum , you would be billionaires with years.Simply compound it on a weekly basis .A lot of common sense is lacking in posts.

Are you aware that your math presented in this sentence is way wrong if applied to trading reality?

Do you know that reality of trading on size has many constraints, which you are unaware of, because you apparently have never traded on the liquidity borderline?

That is what you call "common sense"? Are you sure that your "common sense" really makes any sense then?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 06:34 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

So you quit, because you found it very difficult, right?

Are you aware that your math presented in this sentence is way wrong if applied to trading reality?

Do you know that reality of trading on size has many constraints, which you are unaware of, because you apparently have never traded on the liquidity borderline?

That is what you call "common sense"? Are you sure that your "common sense" really makes any sense then?

No I am not a quitter , not until I beat the shit out of the market.

They have the intelligence to make 100 % , but lack the common sense , and intelligence to solve liquidity constraints.Daft .

__________________
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Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 06:37 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

No I am not a quitter , not until I beat the shit out of the market.

So you admitted day trading is "very difficult", but still keep day trading currently?

They have the intelligence to make 100 % , but lack the common sen sense , and intelligence to solve liquidity constraints.Daft .

What makes you think one can solve liquidity constraints without changing the trading style and the market traded? How would you change the fact that, say 6E liquidity is what it is and not more than that?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 06:44 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

So you admitted day trading is "very difficult", but still keep day trading currently?

What makes you think one can solve liquidity constraints without changing the trading style and the market traded? How would you change the fact that, say 6E liquidity is what it is and not more than that?

Day trading by it's very nature is difficult.

Every problem can be solved , it requires intelligence and common sense.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 07:14 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Day trading by it's very nature is difficult.

It sure is, but the question is: do you currently day trade or not?

Every problem can be solved , it requires intelligence and common sense.

Just one example of common sense applied please, of solving liquidity problem on a given market without changing the trading style and the market traded itself.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 07:34 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

It sure is, but the question is: do you currently day trade or not?

Just one example of common sense applied please, of solving liquidity problem on a given market without changing the trading style and the market traded itself.

I have a proprietary day trading method which I am trying to implement.It eliminates many day trading problems

Firstly you don't trade manipulated illiquid markets , secondly you use high liquidity markets like eur/usd.

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Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 07:38 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

I have a proprietary day trading method which I am trying to implement.It eliminates many day trading problems

Does "trying to implement" mean that you are still struggling to succeed in day trading?

Firstly you don't trade manipulated illiquid markets , secondly you use high liquidity markets like eur/usd.

Do you believe theoretically one can day trade EURUSD to billions of net profit? What do you believe is the maximum order size executed in spot FX without significant slippage?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by angelnish on 09-03-12 07:45 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

I have finally found an article which really sums up day trading.It is well worth a read.Day traders are doomed for failure.

http://www.rb-trading.com/article10.html

However, even trend-following tools that work in intermediate to long-term time frames won't work in day trading. This is because the trend component is so very small in short-term data that you must use a highly effective method to overcome the costs of trading.Tradeable trends do not show up often in the very short term. They certainly are not present every day. That is why the person who tries to day trade at least once every day, and perhaps even more often, is doomed to failure. The more often you day trade, the more likely it is that you will be a long-term loser.

Very interesting oilfxpro, thanks for sharing.
Happy Trading!

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 08:08 AM:

Quote from angelnish:

Very interesting oilfxpro, thanks for sharing.
Happy Trading!

That is an excellent article which sums up the profitability of day trading and odds of success.Everything in the article is unbiased, and it states all the truths.

__________________
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Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 08:19 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

That is an excellent article which sums up the profitability of day trading and odds of success.Everything in the article is unbiased, and it states all the truths.

...and at the same time you admit that you struggle to profitably day trade for 5 years already, simultaneously calling day traders "dumb" and having "no knowledge about probability etc." in the thread started by yourself and named "day trading is a losers game"...

Think I'm starting to understand your "common sense".

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 08:27 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

...and at the same time you admit that you struggle to profitably day trade for 5 years already, simultaneously calling day traders "dumb" and having "no knowledge about probability etc." in the thread started by yourself and named "day trading is a losers game"...

Think I'm starting to understand your "common sense".

Tell me what do you know about the overall probabilities of day trading and odds of being successful?I want a simple concise opinion .

__________________
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Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 08:34 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Tell me what do you know about the overall probabilities of day trading and odds of being successful?I want a simple concise opinion .

I believe average probability of a retail newbie to succeed at day trading is like 1-5%, provided she/he does it all alone without any luck of getting real help from some experienced person. With good help, this chance increases significantly and depends mostly on the degree of dedication of the "student" and qualities of the "mentor".

Have no exact stats to prove it, that's my subjective estimation after 7+ years of trading.

But there is another very interesting statistics: of all people who try to lose weight, more than 90% fail to achieve their goal consistently. Hint, hint (where the problem lies

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 10:20 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

But there is another very interesting statistics: of all people who try to lose weight, more than 90% fail to achieve their goal consistently. Hint, hint (where the problem lies ).

A few internet marketeers are selling mentoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 10:45 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

A few internet marketeers are selling mentoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

No, I didn't hint that.

By the way, I got very lucky myself to get even more than one quasi-mentor who never charged me a penny. So not all people who post on the forums are scams.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 11:00 AM:

Quote from cornixforex:

No, I didn't hint that.

By the way, I got very lucky myself to get even more than one quasi-mentor who never charged me a penny. So not all people who post on the forums are scams.

It is a scam to sell somebody a day trading course ,when you know you can't teach enough or train successfully.You know it is not possible to make somebody a successful day trader , yet you sell a course to him.

__________________
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Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 11:11 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

It is a scam to sell somebody a day trading course ,when you know you can't teach enough or train successfully.You know it is not possible to make somebody a successful day trader , yet you sell a course to him.

Frankly, I never trusted those fancy looking sites selling courses too, mainly because successful trading is not as easy as "buy PDF course, read it and make tons of money". Can't say I didn't buy a few systems and courses in the beginning of my trading journey, one of the brightest samples to mention was MA crossover system I bought for like $1000 back in early 2005.

It's real serious craft, which demands many many days of hard work, best if under supervision of the experienced mentor who is really motivated to make you a successful trader, not just to sell you a course and forget.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Cheese on 09-03-12 11:57 AM:

Trading costs in trading and in daytrading also are immaterial.

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:
That's the stupidest idea I've seen outside the P&R forum.
Maybe even including P&R.

If you are not successful you know nothing.

The gyrations of price (eg CL) provide abundant opportunities in daytrading and the trading costs to me are almost meaningless. As in anything failure or insufficient success or inadequate capabiities blind the many who will never get to the higher levels of material attainment.

However success is still there for the taking!

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 12:04 PM:

Quote from Cheese:

If you are not successful you know nothing.

The gyrations of price (eg CL) provide abundant opportunities in daytrading and the trading costs to me are almost meaningless. As in anything failure or insufficient success or inadequate capabiities blind the many who will never get to the higher levels of material attainment.

However success is still there for the taking!

Indeed, retail commission for CL is how much, like $5/car/RT? That's truly negligible compared to the great moves CL regularly has.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-03-12 12:14 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Let's take an example of two trading businesses:

#1 has monthly trading cost expenses of say 50% of the profit and net ROC of say 100% per year.

#2 has monthly trading cost expenses of 10% of the profit and net ROC of 25% per year.

Which one would you prefer to run?

1) I don't think anybody is consistently getting 100% returns year in and year out in the first place. If they are they are 1 in 100 million people.
2) the variability of returns /vs certainty of expenses makes #1 decidedly less attractive

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 12:15 PM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

1) I don't think anybody is consistently getting 100% returns year in and year out in the first place. If they are they are 1 in 100 million people.
2) the variability of returns /vs certainty of expenses makes #1 decidedly less attractive

You seriously consider 100% ROC per year hardly possible for a successful day trader?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-03-12 12:20 PM:

Quote from halfwaythere:

Hey all, first time poster, and this thread was really quite amazing.

It's really no wonder to me why there are so many losers in the name of day trading, just look at the rampant pessimism and negative attitudes. Trade doesn't do my way? "IT MUST BE RIGGED" What a bunch of whiny girls.

I become profitable after 3 months of trading the TF. It's not rocket science, and I don't consider myself above average in intelligence.

Those who can - do. Those who can't - put there account in mine ;)

Well good luck , I think you're gonna need it.

I read a study put out by finance professors , I believe it was the brokerage info from taiwanese market .
conclusion only 1% of day traders are consistently profitable and the more frequently you trade in general the worse your results.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-03-12 12:35 PM:

Quote from Cheese:

Trading costs in trading and in daytrading also are immaterial.
If you are not successful you know nothing.

The gyrations of price (eg CL) provide abundant opportunities in daytrading and the trading costs to me are almost meaningless. As in anything failure or insufficient success or inadequate capabiities blind the many who will never get to the higher levels of material attainment.

However success is still there for the taking!

No successful business blithely ignores costs, that only happens with fools pontificating on the internet or daydreaming in mom's basement.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 12:43 PM:

Quote from Cheese:

Trading costs in trading and in daytrading also are immaterial.
If you are not successful you know nothing.

The gyrations of price (eg CL) provide abundant opportunities in daytrading and the trading costs to me are almost meaningless. As in anything failure or insufficient success or inadequate capabiities blind the many who will never get to the higher levels of material attainment.

However success is still there for the taking!

When it goes wild and haywire , losses are not made ,just profits.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by riffrafffpatrol on 09-03-12 02:55 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

A few internet marketeers are selling mentoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

Hey Olix....

Do you think Scott Redler is a scam? Mike Lee? Steve Levay? Pete Renzulli? Mark Sperling? Evan Lazarus?

Check out T3. Real traders. 100% total transparency. And they offer education and mentoring.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 03:20 PM:

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

Hey Olix....

Do you think Scott Redler is a scam? Mike Lee? Steve Levay? Pete Renzulli? Mark Sperling? Evan Lazarus?

Check out T3. Real traders. 100% total transparency. And they offer education and mentoring.

Those any good at trading will stick to trading ,at 100 to 1 margin ,magnifying their profits by 100 to 1 and becoming billionaires.

The failed ones will appear like old farts everywhere.Just noisy farts.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by Macho on 09-03-12 03:31 PM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

Well good luck , I think you're gonna need it.

I read a study put out by finance professors , I believe it was the brokerage info from taiwanese market .
conclusion only 1% of day traders are consistently profitable and the more frequently you trade in general the worse your results.

You obviously did not comprehend the information you "read". The survey was related to stock trading ,not futures.

In general, this thread is related to futures.

__________________
BELIEVE,ACCEPT and LEAVE THE TRADE ALONE

Posted by Macho on 09-03-12 03:33 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Those any good at trading will stick to trading ,at 100 to 1 margin ,magnifying their profits by 100 to 1 and becoming billionaires.

The failed ones will appear like old farts everywhere.Just noisy farts.

You scare the shit out of me with your drivel. Please don't try to trade.

__________________
BELIEVE,ACCEPT and LEAVE THE TRADE ALONE

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-03-12 03:46 PM:

Quote from Macho:

1)You obviously did not comprehend the information you "read". The survey was related to stock trading ,not futures.

In general, this thread is related to futures.

Right , gotcha: cause futures trading is sooo much easier than trading stocks.

1) How would you know?

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 03:48 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Those any good at trading will stick to trading ,at 100 to 1 margin ,magnifying their profits by 100 to 1 and becoming billionaires.

The failed ones will appear like old farts everywhere.Just noisy farts.

You didn't answer my question earlier: how do you think, what size is it possible to day trade in EURUSD (one of the most liquid markets in the world) in order to make billions and not incur slippage which would kill your day trading egde at the same time?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 03:51 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

You didn't answer my question earlier: how do you think, what size is it possible to day trade in EURUSD (one of the most liquid markets in the world) in order to make billions and not incur slippage which would kill your day trading egde at the same time?

100 times a day in lots of $5m/10 m each trade , spaced out through out the day.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-03-12 03:52 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

You seriously consider 100% ROC per year hardly possible for a successful day trader?

On a consistent basis ,I sure do.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 04:05 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

100 times a day in lots of $5m/10 m each trade , spaced out through out the day.

Find someone besides Jack Hershey on ET who claims doing that... or maybe that's you?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 04:07 PM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

On a consistent basis ,I sure do.

How long is "consistent basis"?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-03-12 04:21 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Find someone besides Jack Hershey on ET who claims doing that... or maybe that's you?

Me and some of these ol farts make more noise on radio and cnbc.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 04:29 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Me and some of these ol farts make more noise on radio and cnbc.

I see i see... That's what you call "losers game" then?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-03-12 05:03 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

How long is "consistent basis"?

I'd say about 6 contiguous years.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 05:09 PM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

I'd say about 6 contiguous years.

Why particularly 6? And that's regardless of the number of trades made?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-03-12 05:31 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Why particularly 6?

I think that probably rules out chance.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by cornix on 09-03-12 05:38 PM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

I think that probably rules out chance.

But what's the reason it's 6? Why not 4 or 10?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Redneck on 09-03-12 05:59 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

But what's the reason it's 6? Why not 4 or 10?

Personally I'd say it would be the last one - for that is the only one that matters... and defines us

I should add.., for the less astute - I do not mean 10 or 4 or even 6

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-03-12 10:08 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

But what's the reason it's 6? 1)Why not 4 or 2)10?

1) because it's less than six
2) because it's greater than six.

Any other stupid questions?

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by Bob111 on 09-04-12 12:35 AM:

anyone profitable for six years straight? press 1 ... how about six years,every single month? press 2

Posted by SUPERIOR1 on 09-04-12 02:01 AM:

oilfxpro the reason why you say day trading is a losers game is because you have failed to become a day trader

because you didn't go to a good college and go work for a real institution (Goldman Sachs)

because you are egotistical, because you are bad at learning

and maybe because you are not that smart,but smarts does not matter.

Don't take it as an attack. Just stop being such a dick head when there are so many people who are rich day traders. It is possible. You probably have some random day job and don't make allot of money. You run around as the antagonist for everything. Stop being this, and start being a student.

Posted by cornix on 09-04-12 05:57 AM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

1) because it's less than six
2) because it's greater than six.

Any other stupid questions?

Stupid questions don't exist. Stupid answers do.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-04-12 06:29 AM:

Quote from SUPERIOR1:

oilfxpro the reason why you say day trading is a losers game is because you have failed to become a day trader

because you didn't go to a good college and go work for a real institution (Goldman Sachs)

because you are egotistical, because you are bad at learning

and maybe because you are not that smart,but smarts does not matter.

Don't take it as an attack. Just stop being such a dick head when there are so many people who are rich day traders. It is possible. You probably have some random day job and don't make allot of money. You run around as the antagonist for everything. Stop being this, and start being a student.

This is the type of unintelligent posts we get on e t.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 09-04-12 06:34 AM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

This is the type of unintelligent posts we get on e t.

The question is: are you honest to yourself when reacting to this post in a certain way?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Cheese on 09-04-12 12:06 PM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

No successful business blithely ignores costs, that only happens with fools pontificating on the internet or daydreaming in mom's basement.

You continue to miss the point. Trading costs are not ignored. They are known and are immaterial to successful trading (for example in CL). But in business in general marginal cost theory applies in which again you would have no experience.

You should try to learn what is relevant to being successful rather than exposing your inexperience. But of course no harm is done if you want to stay behind most others and prefer playing aimlessly in a fools playground like a baby. As mentioned before, if you are not successful you know nothing.

Posted by mm19 on 09-04-12 12:56 PM:

Quote from Bob111:

anyone profitable for six years straight? press 1 ... how about six years,every single month? press 2

hope you not pressing 2 ?!? if yes then average return must be at least 5% from statistics. If so, you have made 33x original.

Have you ???

i guess not as you cant compound

waste of time. better work as a programmer. you get paid better.

Posted by cornix on 09-04-12 01:12 PM:

Being profitable every month sounds like a realistic goal for day trader.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by mm19 on 09-04-12 01:23 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Being profitable every month sounds like a realistic goal for day trader.

everyone different. one should not leave good job for daytrading. It is harder work and unsecure pay. And health issues. Office at home fantasy gets worn out.

Posted by cornix on 09-04-12 01:25 PM:

Quote from mm19:

everyone different. one should not leave good job for daytrading. It is harder work and unsecure pay. And health issues. Office at home fantasy gets worn out.

That I agree with. If I knew before started to trade how difficult it is, would rather do something else. Now it feels almost like fun, but objectively it's one of the hardest ways to make money.

Correction: it's one of the hardest ways to learn before you actually make consistent money.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by mm19 on 09-04-12 01:38 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

That I agree with. If I knew before started to trade how difficult it is, would rather do something else. Now it feels almost like fun, but objectively it's one of the hardest ways to make money.

Correction: it's one of the hardest ways to learn before you actually make consistent money.

well I am kind like somwewhere there too. however I decided to go for less frequency and scalability especially once i experienced health issues shortterm trading FX. I also like high % win.

I have no problem with large swing position as my odds are well tested over years.

I also keep my reasonably paid job.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-04-12 01:38 PM:

Quote from Cheese:

1)You continue to miss the point. 2)Trading costs are not ignored. They are known and are immaterial to successful trading (for example in CL).3) But in business in general marginal cost theory applies in which again you would have no experience.

4)You should try to learn what is relevant to being successful rather than exposing your inexperience. 5)But of course no harm is done if you want to stay behind most others and prefer playing aimlessly in a fools playground like a baby. 6)As mentioned before, if you are not successful you know nothing.

1) I'm good at that.
2) are you sure we're still talking about daytrading?
3) yeah , you know I have no experience: how?
4,5,) Wow you impress me with your condescension you must be a great trader . Please Please be my mentor.
6) still looking for the holy grail yourself eh?

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-04-12 02:06 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Stupid questions don't exist. Stupid answers do.

You seem to be really upset that I picked 6 years of contiguous returns as being "consistent".

Why how many consecutive years of excess 100% returns are you claiming to have through daytrading?

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by cornix on 09-04-12 02:15 PM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

You seem to be really upset that I picked 6 years of contiguous returns as being "consistent".

Why how many consecutive years of excess 100% returns are you claiming to have through daytrading?

Frankly, this is among things that are very unlikely able to make me worry not even talking of being upset.

4 years here. Yep, I am not consistent by your standards. Surely a reason for deep depression.

But now seriously: what is the true reason of your negativity towards day trading? You have painful experience with it?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by PHOENIX TRADING on 09-04-12 02:23 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

Frankly, this is among things that are very unlikely able to make me worry not even talking of being upset.

4 years here. Yep, I am not consistent by your standards. Surely a reason for deep depression.

But now seriously: what is the true reason of your negativity towards day trading? You have painful experience with it?

Honestly I don't believe you have 4 yrs of compounded 100% gains from day trading.

__________________
Chance favors the prepared mind. (Pasteur)

Posted by cornix on 09-04-12 02:25 PM:

Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

Honestly I don't believe you have 4 yrs of compounded 100% gains from day trading.

100%? No, of course not... I said at least 100%.

And someone believing or not doesn't affect this fact in a slightest way. Neither am I going to bother to prove it.

Still, what about you: what's your day trading experience and results?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-04-12 02:31 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

That I agree with. If I knew before started to trade how difficult it is, would rather do something else. Now it feels almost like fun, but objectively it's one of the hardest ways to make money.

Correction: it's one of the hardest ways to learn before you actually make consistent money.

The only fun is on e t AND $100 WITHOUT K trades at Oanda , then boasting to noobs on E T LIKE ME

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-04-12 02:32 PM:

Quote from cornixforex:

100%? No, of course not... I said at least 100%.

And someone believing or not doesn't affect this fact in a slightest way. Neither am I going to bother to prove it.

Still, what about you: what's your day trading experience and results?

Boaster on E T!

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 09-04-12 02:33 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

The only fun is on e t AND $100 WITHOUT K trades at Oanda , then boasting to noobs on E T LIKE ME

Apparently I should report you to UK authorities (they will arrive soon, please don't leave, cause you are in London too, right?

), because you cracked my account and exposed this shame of it having only $100 to the whole world.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by cornix on 09-04-12 02:33 PM:

Quote from oilfxpro:

Boaster on E T!

Yup... What else would you expect from Russian, huh?

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-05-12 12:25 PM:

Re: Unless you trade with us

Quote from Oleg:

We trade the same signals as our clients . Everything is automated.
Only robots.Only proven strategies. Every trade from history can be seen.
Just give it a try.
www.anttrader.com

A few lines of code is now giving an edge ?

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-05-12 12:44 PM:

Re: About 70000 lines of code

Quote from Oleg:

And 18 months of fine tuning the strategies by the sharpest brains would give a very slight edge over manual trading

What man can not do himself , computers will give you an edge.All these idiots on forums have not got an edge , so they will come to you?Your few lines of code will give an edge?

looking for retards for sharp brains?

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-05-12 01:07 PM:

Quote from Oleg:

70000 lines of code might give me a slight edge

I have a million lines of code , but they don't give an edge.

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by euclid on 09-05-12 01:14 PM:

Re: About 70000 lines of code

Quote from oilfxpro:

I have a million lines of code , but they don't give an edge.

Quote from Oleg:

brains would give a very slight edge

Seems you are out of luck again oily.

Posted by cornix on 09-05-12 01:15 PM:

Re: Re: About 70000 lines of code

Quote from euclid:

Seems you are out of luck again oily.

LOL... must be karma.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by oilfxpro on 09-05-12 02:11 PM:

Re: Re: Re: About 70000 lines of code

Quote from cornixforex:

LOL... must be karma.

the only karma on this forum is .you see a sign banned!

__________________
Trading is very easy job with automation.

Posted by cornix on 09-05-12 02:21 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: About 70000 lines of code

Quote from oilfxpro:

the only karma on this forum is .you see a sign banned!

Brother Oily, no need to get that mad... I don't have anything against you, just trying to explain you at times, that your jihad against day trading, TA and people who talk about it is destructive by it's nature and won't benefit neither you nor anyone else... Better direct your energy to some constructive activity. I am talking very sincerely now.

__________________
Humans are much more prone to influence of words than real facts. Ivan Pavlov.

Posted by Wide Tailz on 09-05-12 08:48 PM:

I say let him stew in his self loathing, and self destruct. Natural selection is nature's way of cutting losses.

Posted by Xspurt on 09-09-12 10:02 AM:

Quote from Wide Tailz:

I say let him stew in his self loathing, and self destruct. Natural selection is nature's way of cutting losses.

https://www.google.co.uk/#hl=en&gs_...iw=1680&bih=918

__________________
Xspurt

Posted by Peternam on 09-09-12 12:28 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: About 70000 lines of code

Quote from cornixforex:

Brother Oily, no need to get that mad... I don't have anything against you, just trying to explain you at times, that your jihad against day trading, TA and people who talk about it is destructive by it's nature and won't benefit neither you nor anyone else... Better direct your energy to some constructive activity. I am talking very sincerely now.

Best post in this thread !

Posted by colonial dr on 09-10-12 11:09 PM:

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: About 70000 lines of code

Quote from Peternam:

Best post in this thread !

__________________
I'm a elite trader newb, but I admire a few of the older users here for being real traders. There are lots of spammers, but still many excellent traders around here.

Posted by Slave2Market on 09-18-12 07:35 PM:

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

Hey Olix....

Do you think Scott Redler is a scam? Mike Lee? Steve Levay? Pete Renzulli? Mark Sperling? Evan Lazarus?

Check out T3. Real traders. 100% total transparency. And they offer education and mentoring.

I am not familiar with T3 but would be very interested in seeing the Profit and Loss curves for the real-time transparent trading of the traders you mentioned above.

I reviewed the site briefly but that information did not appear to be available. Could you please point me to a link that shows the actual trading results?

Thanks - Slave2Market

Posted by Sunset Station on 11-12-12 03:18 PM:

Re: Day trading is losers game

Quote from oilfxpro:

There are so many threads negative about day trading , it was time to ask why is there no successful day trader in the popularity of George Sorros , Jim Symons etc.

Trading is a zero sum game and day trading is a negative sum game.The only people making money out of it is brokers.

If it was profitable to day trade , brokers would hire people to trade with broker's capital.

A few internet marketeers are selling motoring , under the guise of successful day trading , but these are just scams.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220707

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220676

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218977

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=220513

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=218160

This is an insteresting question. Is Forex really a zero sum game? I learned that companies that make positions to hedge risk of their future income and their cost that are denominated in currency different from their basic one.

Actually they give up their extra profit -that originates from exchange rate gain- to avoid unexpectable losses, and they fix their exchange rate for a future moment. Just the opposite what a trader does. It is -strictly speakig- zero sum game, but they don't hurt each other's insterests. If a US company will have for example EUR 50.000 income in half a year it will make EUR futures contract and fix the future exchange rate with it, so in half a year it can get almost the same amount of money in USD than it would get with today's prompt prices while if it exchanges the money on propmt price in half a year even 10-20% percentege losses or gain as well could be suffered.

Anyone who has experience how this looks like at the banks or at the comapanies feel free to comment my opinion!

__________________
Sunset Station / http://managedaccount.blog.com/

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