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-- PowerShares DB Oil Fund(DBO): Rubish at tracking Crude oil price! (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=216020)
PowerShares DB Oil Fund(DBO): Rubish at tracking Crude oil price!
I have bought last week, on the 15th of February when the crude oil spot price was $85.3, some PowerShares DB Oil Fund at $28.
I'm very supprised by the gap between the return from this ETF and the actual crude oil spot price:
Crude oil trade at $97.36 which imply that I should have a return of 14.13%
while PowerShares DB Oil Fund is trading at $30 which make an absolute of return of 6.2%.
How such a big gap is possible?
Thanks in advance for your answer.
Because many ETF's apparently are very poor proxies for the pure commodity play. Factor in the basket construction slippage and the management fees - and you get what you pay for.
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I would recommend OIH over DBO.....
You can never replicate the spot returns of a commodity. Unless you buy physical and store it at your house. And even that costs money (opportunity costs, transaction costs, storage, insurance etc.)
And in the futures world you always pay transaction costs, slippage and must account for the term structure.
Adjusted for contango and ETF costs, the crude oil fund USO had a net gain of 0% over the last 18 months while spot crude went from $70 to $100 over the same period.
USO tracks gud.
Quick comparison between DBO, OIH and USO since the 15/02/2011:
ETF's fucking suck if your trying for the same returns of the commodities there supposedly follow , even a fuckin idiot like me learned that the hard way . But so do the losses .
One piece of advise NEVER EVER buy UNG (natural gas ETF)
Quote from Joe Doaks:
USO tracks gud.
I haven't had time to run the numbers yet but I'm starting to think that XOM tracks the price of Oil better than any friggin Oil ETF.
not really... oil companies will not perform well in the mid-run according to the fact that high oil price could trigger a double deep recession in western economies which will in turn lower the exports of emerging economies and thus decrease the global demand for oil.
The best short/mid term play are futures
Look at the chart of XOM against ETF's
Quote from Butterball:
You can never replicate the spot returns of a commodity. Unless you buy physical and store it at your house. And even that costs money
You bought at $85.3? Aren't you happy now that its trading at $109?
If you want a guarantee, buy a
toaster. (c) Clint Eastwood
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