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-- jasinhbca's quest for discipline, knowledge & profits (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=210502)
jasinhbca's quest for discipline, knowledge & profits
Hey Traders,
Like many i feel I'm close to becoming a more consistent , profitable trader. Still, i can't quite make it over the hurdle.
Currently I'm live day trading the NQ but may go back to sim if results don't pick up soon.
Hopefully with this journal and the help of the other ET'ers i can log what it takes to become profitable. Maybe it's just more screen time. I don't know.
My current goals are to:
1. continue to have patience in trade selection
2. complete my trade worksheets which will track my entries, exits and mistakes
3. Review the days chart to increase my knowledge of PA and better understand my entries. The better I understand my entries and exits the less hesitation on execution I hope to have.
4. Hold my winners longer
5. Remember to treat each trade independently. Sometimes I'm taking quick profits just to get back to even for the day despite PA to the contrary.
I'll soon post some charts.
Here's are a chart showing a couple trades from yesterday. Pretty indicative of how I'm trading currently.
My problem is exits. Surprising to me as i always figured finding entries would be the hard thing. OK, that's still a challenge too.
Another trade from yesterday.
Definitely feels like I'm trading scared. Early exit from today's trade.
That's all i got for now. Back to the markets.
PS My hard stop loss placed with my entry is 3 points. I of course try to avoid that when possible.
Only the 1 trade yesterday. Had to leave the office before the last hour.
Today sold the HOD failed breakout. Late entry - hesitated
Just trying to book green on the first trade, but looks like a decent read of PA.
I like your charts. Very clear presentation of your reasoning for entries and exits.
I have always struggled with exits when trading in a discretionary manner. There's always a reason to exit early, and that reason usually seems to be wrong. I've found it helpful to adopt some objective exit criteria (e.g., breach of most recent swing H/L, breach of H/L of preceding 5-minute bar, or whatever else works for your system), which if used properly can keep you in the trade as it develops. Your mileage may vary.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Definitely feels like I'm trading scared. Early exit from today's trade.
That's all i got for now. Back to the markets.
PS My hard stop loss placed with my entry is 3 points. I of course try to avoid that when possible.
Quote from worldwary:
I like your charts. Very clear presentation of your reasoning for entries and exits.
I have always struggled with exits when trading in a discretionary manner. There's always a reason to exit early, and that reason usually seems to be wrong. I've found it helpful to adopt some objective exit criteria (e.g., breach of most recent swing H/L, breach of H/L of preceding 5-minute bar, or whatever else works for your system), which if used properly can keep you in the trade as it develops. Your mileage may vary.
Quote from TraderZz:
You sold right into support. When a level gets flipped from R to S, you buy, you dont keep your stop there.
Very fortunate for you this is a easy mistake to correct. I would suggest you have 2 criteria to exit the trade. TL break might be one, but more important than TLs are horizontal price levels.
Another suggestion would be PA momentum contrary to your POV.
So if you go long, wait for a LH and keep your stop on a LL. This will let you in the strongest trends for a good time.
All the best.
Here's what i need to work on for next week. More trades.
One of the key things for me as far as increasing my pecentage of winning trades has been to have patience and wait for good trades. Sometimes i think i'm taking that too far, though. Yesterday and today during the "lunch hour", 9- 11 my time i've become more distracted and less willing to take trades during this supposedly slow time. And the markets do feel slower. But i'm seeing set up's i like but decide to just watch and they turn out to have been good entries.
So next week more focus during lunch and a willingness to quickly enter good set ups during this time.
Oh yea, different topic. This morning i placed a trade and i get a fill 2 points above the market. Ninja shows my pnl down 2 as well. WTF right ? then i see that i'm not getting quotes. i swear i just had been. I immediately close the trade and my fill is half point from my entry. Close and reopen NT and now there's the missing price bars. Bad quotes, bad internet , i don't know . It's never happened before. For now i assume a one time glitch.
1 trade so far today +4.25
Nice sell off occurred at 7:15 am that i missed . Not sure why i missed as it's a setup i like.
Not proud of this trade. I'm supposed to be more patient around
HOD / LOD per my own rules. Possibly influenced by missing prior down move.
Bottom line i should have waited and not taken this trade. Discipline issue.
5 trades -6.25 NQ pts.
Felt like decent entries at the time but in review perhaps i was too eager. That is i should have waited to see if some breakouts were going to hold before i entered.
Comments on trade 1 & 4 on chart.
Trade 2 a buy. Should have waited with the market being down as much as it was and the TL a bit steep but 7:00 am pst often gives nice reversals.
Trade 3 selling LOD. Sometimes they work plus the market looked weak. This is a tough one for me to figure out. Not sure if i should just pass on these.
Comments always appreciated.
Last trade of the day chart attached.
Sat on my hands after this one. I thought the action felt a little strange; choppy and quick.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
5 trades -6.25 NQ pts.
Felt like decent entries at the time but in review perhaps i was too eager. That is i should have waited to see if some breakouts were going to hold before i entered.
Comments on trade 1 & 4 on chart.
Trade 2 a buy. Should have waited with the market being down as much as it was and the TL a bit steep but 7:00 am pst often gives nice reversals.
Trade 3 selling LOD. Sometimes they work plus the market looked weak. This is a tough one for me to figure out. Not sure if i should just pass on these.
Comments always appreciated.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Not too critical at all. Thanks !
3 trades, + 5.75 NQ points total
1st trade i should have exited sooner after the reversal bar at the fib 50 -1.75
2nd trade Looks OK to me but didn't work -.25
I'll post 3rd trade next
3rd trade was off a pattern i was reviewing this past weekend. Glad it worked . +7.75
This move started off a large LOD Triangle. Exit was apparently early but looked like price was struggling and i wanted the points.
-3.75 Frustrating. Lots of movement today . Seems like i should have been able to pull a couple points out of it.
1st trade was simply a boredom trade. Knew it as soon as i got in and regretted the entry. I haven't made this type of impatient mistake in a while. And to top it off i sat on it for a full stop. -3.00
2nd trade annotated on chart. Held it too long and rode + 5.75 to a .75 loss. Pretty sure I was ignoring price action and listening to hope/greed on this one.
Missed trades - The turns came quick today. Quite simply I think those trades are above my current skill level. I'll be reviewing todays action.
After reflecting on my trades yesterday i'm begining to believe that when i'm focused my entries are not bad. I think i'm making a small step in the right direction which gives me a small bit of hope. My current problems are not waiting for good set ups and not finding good exits.
Today i again made an unfocused, impulsive trade that isn't really one of the set ups i look for. - 3.00
Next trade (attached) decent entry, saw the M.top and waited for the pullback . Maybe s/h exited sooner when failed to make a lower low. Not entirely sure. Given overall strength of market probably should have. -.75
Going forward no more impulse or boredom trades. Only trade my set ups. And how will I do this ? Fcking willpower, baby ! I know. I'm not the first to say that.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Going forward no more impulse or boredom trades. Only trade my set ups. And how will I do this ? Fcking willpower, baby ! I know. I'm not the first to say that.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Thanks, jp. The big gaps are still unfamiliar to me. Appreciate the input.
Generally I don't trade the first hour or so on thursdays as wed is a late night for me.
When i did make it to the office the action seemed slow, but I did buy a break out. I think this is a decent trade that just didn't work. I'm aware to be careful on HOD/LOD b/o's but as noted on chart this looked like a good set up.
Maybe the slow action should have been a tip off just to stay out.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Generally I don't trade the first hour or so on thursdays as wed is a late night for me.
When i did make it to the office the action seemed slow, but I did buy a break out. I think this is a decent trade that just didn't work. I'm aware to be careful on HOD/LOD b/o's but as noted on chart this looked like a good set up.
Maybe the slow action should have been a tip off just to stay out.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
jp, not sure i understand what you mean but i'll keep looking. I haven't noticed much of diff between volume and tick charts.
thanks.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
jp, not sure i understand what you mean but i'll keep looking. I haven't noticed much of diff between volume and tick charts.
thanks.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Ok, that 's what i thought you meant. thanks
Seems like there's time to post.
This is becoming one of my favorite set ups .
exit for b/e . The way the week has been going i didn't want to watch this turn into another loser. Normally i would have given it a bit more time. So does that mean i'm not following my plan ? Maybe. But trying to preserve a little mental capital is part of my plan too at this point.
JP, You'll notice the ema. I'm giving it a try. Also was watching a 250 tick chart today and kinda like how the S/R shows up.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Seems like there's time to post.
JP, You'll notice the ema. I'm giving it a try. Also was watching a 250 tick chart today and kinda like how the S/R shows up.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
I'm calling it a day. Got a few things that need to get done. Taking some charts home to review.
Anybody have any problems with the NT7 upgrade ? I haven't done it yet. Expect to do it next week unless somebody has a horror story.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Anybody have any problems with the NT7 upgrade ? I haven't done it yet. Expect to do it next week unless somebody has a horror story.
Quote from FirstDegree:
If you're going to do it, do it after hours. I did it yesterday after the CL open only to find out that it wiped my charts clean. I had to manually open each chart again (I have 4 separate charts) along with adding indicators, changing colors, resizing windows, etc.
I haven't had any technical problems. I'm still getting used to the different menus, and a few other little things that are different.
-2.25 Buy off LOD
One possible mistake i see is buying on the down TL near possible resistance. I've frequently seen these kinds of buys turn up fast so i don't think the entry is terrible. Now, maybe the fact that it didn't take off should have been a indication to get out sooner.
Another way to play it would be wait for more of an upside b/o then enter on a pullback.
Didn't re-enter because market moving slow and looking range bound.
1 trade + 7
Possible areas of improvement . Earlier entry , earlier exit or could have re shorted at failure to get above R1.
On the daily charts I've got a very bearish bias right now so I was trying to hold this short as long as i could with out giving up too much in open profits. Finally decided to just book profits.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
1 trade + 7
Possible areas of improvement . Earlier entry , earlier exit or could have re shorted at failure to get above R1.
On the daily charts I've got a very bearish bias right now so I was trying to hold this short as long as i could with out giving up too much in open profits. Finally decided to just book profits.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Thanks , JP !
I hold stocks and will swing trade for longer trades but currently just focusing on learning to day trade the futures. I actually tried day trading futures almost 20 years ago. Pre internet days. (Anybody remember the NYFE ? ) Pick up the phone, reach for the speed dial button, hmm, no, put the phone back, reach for the phone again, dictate your order, they read it back, "Is that correct?", "yes", write down your fill ,hang up and heavy exhale ! I sure love the internet! 
My stock holdings right now are primarily QID an ETF that double shorts the nasdaq.
My acct size is small and until i get some consistency i'll just trade 1 car although i could trade more now.
+1.5 on 1 trade short. MFE +6.25 but a realistic exit would be around +5 if i acted sooner. There was a reversal bar that i could have acted on. Holding any longer than i did would have turned profit to loss.
Lesson: Need to trust price action and act quickly.
No other trades due to the slow action today.
I'm keeping track of all my trades and noting type of entry pattern, exit reason and any mistakes. This worksheet and a chart go in a binder; winners in one section losers in another.
I then log into excel the points made or lost into various columns, time, entry pattern etc. Trying to determine where and when my wins and losses are coming from and how much mistakes are costing me.
I also keep another binder with several sections labeled by pattern; breakout, 2 & 3 bar reversal patterns, M-top's etc. As i find patterns they get filed in this binder. I also include failed patterns for reference.
So far i'm finding it helpful and would expect if i'm going to trade on PA then this is an absolute requirement.
No trades yesterday and looking like none today. I think i'd rather go study some charts than watch more of todays non-action.
Have a good weekend traders !
Patience pays off. 2 trades, + 6.75
Brief notes as usual on the chart.
There was another good short entry when 2212 was taken out.
My trading plan right now does not allow me to add to my position. Pyramiding winners is key to increasing profits, IMO so when i become more consistent i will add this to the plan. It would seem to me that i should only add when i'm already up x amount on a position.
And now that i think about it i also want to initiate w/ multiple cars and scale out. Incorporating these two ideas is going to take some thought.
Maybe i'll just stay a 1 lotter forever ! 
Hi JAS,
Thanks for your post on my thread the other day, I just got the joke about my spelling while reviewing things over the weekend!
You traded futures 20 years ago? What has brought you back to them now?
The easy money !
I guess the short answer is I'm stubborn and i love the markets. I never had the quite the success i thought i should have had in trading so i want to do it till i get it right. I bought my first stock when i was 15 and tried trading stock index options in my early 20's. Then tried the futures.
I've spent many hours reading and researching the market over the years. I still love the challenge and the self improvement aspects that are part of the process. Last summer i came across the price action threads here on ET and thought it time to give it another try.
And yes the money. That of course is a motivator.
Some of the keys , i think , to success in trading are self honesty, perserverance and a love of the markets (or perhaps a love of the challenge). I've read your journal and think you no doubt have the first two. If you find you truly enjoy this pursuit you have a better of success than most.
Thanks for the trading plan
I skimmed thru and have done most of that, but I'll read it in more detail and see.
Have you read Al Brooks book? What do you think of it?
I just got Al's book last week. Only about 20 pages in right now. First impression is that the material could have been presented in a clearer easier to understand manner. Should have started with some definitions of his set ups then shown some examples. He jumps right in to the bar by bar analysis leaving it to the reader to find his set up he's referring to.
But, I like it and will continue to read and re read it. Certainly, helps to have experience reading charts before tackling his book.
No trades. Waited with everyone else for FOMC to end then couldn't find an entry. Either poor focus or more likely poor ability in reading price action today. Saw a few places where i was thinking short but felt like I was chasing so i stayed out. Missed the final 6 points due to an interruption.
Not a complete loss though as I've reviewed the action and see some very good clues i missed that would have provided good entries.
Since I also believe that missing trades can be caused by a poor understanding of my set ups, I'm trying to refine if possible some of the specific entry rules.
2 trades, +5 & +5.5 Both shorts.
Internet went out for last 2 + hours and never came back up. Hopefully verizon gets it fixed by tomorrow.
The first trade if i had held longer i would have picked up another 4 points or so if i remember correctly. Had decent reason to exit when i did so i won't beat myself up about that.
Second trade hesitated a bit on entry. Waited for a break out to sell instead of taking the earlier price action clues. Could have picked up another 2 or 3 points i think. Fortunately, i got lucky and didn't take any significant heat.
Very frustrating to have a good day yesterday and not be able to follow through. -5 today, 2 trades
1st trade i made a mistake and entered short at support. That's clear to me and i'll try to avoid doing that again.
2nd trade is similar entry as one yesterday. To me it looked like it had momentum to take out the prior low at 2215.5 Seems to me this trade is a good R:R. Anybody care to comment ?
Possible reasons why i should not have taken this trade are the bullish bias on the day i.e.; bigger time frame trend still up and adv/dec numbers quite bullish. Also i'm tired today and perhaps should have been more selective or just stayed out.
Well this is interesting. I'm reviewing my trades for the past two and a half months, which includes sim trades, and i see that on my winners my MAE is rather small. Only 2 trades where it was > 2 points. And yet i'm using a hard stop of 3 points and have many discretionary stops > 2 points. In doing some quick calculations if I change my stop to 2.25 points the points I save less the points on the winners i would have been stopped out of is about 15 points. This is based on about 80 trades. So the questions is
a) Am i an idiot for not realizing this sooner
b) Is sample size too small.
I'm going with a) right now and will be adjusting my stop down. I'll also be reviewing the numbers again and more frequently and watch to see if this turns out to be too tight. It's possible if volatility picks up that 2.25 may stop me out of trades that become profitable.
Just looking at my last 5 profitable trades the total was 26.75 points with a combined MAE of 3.25.
Yes, this is very interesting !
Looking forward to your results...
RE: Market Bias.
I usually do a good job of not having much of a bias. I've got pretty much the same number of long as short trades. Lately i've become very bearish on the market and have only taken short trades, even though i've seen some decent buy set ups.
Today there was a very nice DB that i just watched. I know i'm not supposed to have a bias and yet... So going forward I'll try to not let my bias keep me out of trades.
Re: Focus. Didn't have it today. Maybe the slower volume, maybe trades going against me, maybe I'm tired. I need to be more aware of my mental state. Actually a little irrated with myself as i'm usually pretty self aware in this regard. Hmm, irrated and no focus. Guess i'm tired.
-4.75 pts today. Probably will join the other traders and cut back on the trades through rest of the year.
Felt rested and focused today. The only way to trade.
1 trade for 2 points. Not a huge win but I think i had a pretty good read of the market so happy about that.
How is it going Jas?
Read any more of Brooks?
Quote from Hooti:
How is it going Jas?
Read any more of Brooks?
First trade in awhile.
Stopped out of my long trade for -2.25. Glad i recently revised my stop loss. In review this wasn't a great PA read but it wasn't a random entry either. Hopefully just rusty after the break.
2nd trade short for + 4.00. No real complaints on this. Watched a re-test of a break out then sold. Could have picked up another 2 points if i held longer but wanted to lock in profits. Also wasn't a clear indication price would continue further down.
I expect and look forward to volatility picking up soon.
Goals this year are to increase consistency and then increase size.
Fighting my market bias again today. Thought about going long around 7:30 pst which would've been a great entry with no heat. Instead decided to wait for what i thought would be a less risky short. Then later thought again about long but passed.
First half of the day about every pullback could have been bought for a profit.
Finally found my short around 10:00. Slight hesitation on entry, price went 2 pts in my favor then quickly reversed. Closed for -.25
After that i soon decided to call it a day before I did something stupid.
Frustrating to sit infront of the screen as the eyeballs dry out and not have anything to show for it. Oh well, can't dwell on it.
On the plus side i think my PA reading skills are slowly improving.
Last thought: I really want to catch a 30 pt NQ down move. Is it 'cause i want the excitement, a big win (ie ego boost) or some kind of validation that i can do it. I don't know. I'm not sure this is healthy then again isn't getting big wins the goal ?
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Fighting my market bias again today. Thought about going long around 7:30 pst which would've been a great entry with no heat. Instead decided to wait for what i thought would be a less risky short. Then later thought again about long but passed.
First half of the day about every pullback could have been bought for a profit.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Thanks, JP. My problem is that on the big picture i'm quite bearish and think the market could roll over any day now. I'm expecting at minimum a 10- 15 % correction. I need to either ignore that or only trade on the short side and accept i'll miss trades. I think the obvious answer is ignore my bias. Should be an easy fix , right ?
Combine lack of discipline and market chop and want do you get ?
-4.50 pts 2 trades
Boredom, late entry long and then chased a short.
Nothing else really to add except i need to get my sht together. This lack of discipline is unacceptable.
It's sure not easy,
had a -2 pts today in one trade. We did about as well as each other.
Looked at what turned into the 8 pt drop, and said out loud that I should short there, but just didn't. I was just a little late, then didn't get in.
Next time...
-.75 on first trade short
I think i should have taken a bit more heat and not exited at resistance as has been pointed out to me before.
Otherwise i don't see anything terribly wrong. Any comments on fine tuning this though are appreciated.
will post my second trade soon.
forgot to attach the chart
Don't even look at my thread today!
You are doing great
trade 2 - 1.75 short again. I don't mind too much having losses but man, i sure would like to have a few more winners.
Again i don't think this is a bad entry just sometimes they don't work out. Didn't take any more trades after this. Trying to get the balance between don't chase a trend and jump in now. I'm getting some clues i think.
Lot's of good PA today to study for the weekend.
Quote from Hooti:
Don't even look at my thread today!
You are doing great
-6 today on 3 trades.
As a new trader the first thoughts are: have i lost my edge, did i ever have one or is this just a slump. Over the weekend i was thinking that as long as i'm patient and limit my mistakes my limited trading history shows i have an edge. Of course, It's easy to say after the fact that a mistake was made and without a certain trade or two i'd have an edge. So maybe what i should say is as long as i'm able to recognize my mistakes and reduce them then i should be able to have an edge.
Christ, i think i'm starting to just ramble here.
First 2 short trades stopped out. 2nd entry came too soon after the first. At this point I need to take more than a 10 minute break after a losing trade.
3rd trade long went 4.5 positive then sold off quickly. When i exited at -1.5 i immediately thought Don't exit ! It's at support and has stalled. That was the bottom and it went back up for probably 7.5 pt gain or if I was really good about 13 points.
So now i'm going to review the trades further. If I don't improve soon then i'll go back to sim trading.
Another thing i know about myself is i do behave differently when in a trade. While stalking trades i'm pretty relaxed and get good reads. In the trade i'm a bit more anxious and i think rush my understanding of what is occuring. I'm working on reminding myself to relax and stay focused while in the trade. I think being aware of this is more than half the battle.
Tonight i'll get some exercise and come in tomorrow focused and with no worries about today.
No trades yesterday.
-2.25 today 1 trade
My read in price action was off a bit. I should have given this more time to set up. Main problem was mis reading a normal pullback as a failed breakout.
Shorting near support can work if price has momentum so don't think that was terribly wrong in regards to the entry
The 20 ema was still moving up which could have been another tip to wait.
That's about it.
No trades today.
I think i mention this every thurs so this will be the last time. I'm up late on wed so I get to office about 8 (pst) on thursday's. (I play guitar as a hobby, wed night is band practice. We're still putting together our third set and then hope to play somewhere)
After the nice up move i watched and missed a couple entries on the pullbacks on the down move. Showed good restraint in not chasing the market today, though.
This is the goal. To read the chart as easily as today and believe what i see and act on it. I saw every one of these buys and failed to to take them. Why is for me to figure out. The negative a-d numbers and large new lows today was part of it. I need to place less emphasis on that. But this was helpful in gaining more trust and confidence in myself.
I mean really, look at this chart. Sometimes it's so obvious it's hard to believe.
Mostly a repeat of the other day. Seeing entries but choosing not to take them. No regrets though. I'm printing up charts and making notes. There was a short entry around 6:45 i missed but I saw several buys that would have worked.
I guess i'm being stubborn w/ my bearish bias but it's not often i have such a strong opinion on the market. I'd rather miss some trades on the long side than be in what i perceive to be higher risk trades at this time. I realize as a trader this is not the approach i should be taking but i'll allow myself a bit more time to indulge this bias.
Hey Jas,
I sat in on Al Brooks free 2 days of listening to him talk as the day progresses... If I heard him right he sees one possibility of the ES retesting back to 1250 or so. ...with lots of 'ifs', etc. Maybe it will happen!
Thanks Hooti,
I'm looking for spx of about 1180 on the first leg down, after that i'll see how things look. 1000 later this year looks possible but not locked in to that.
How was the seminar ?
Some days better lucky than good. Missed some good entries but still ended up + 7.25 on 2 short trades.
My time i'm able to devote to the market is quickly diminishing as my "real" work will soon require all my attention until about April 15th. Hope to trade the first hour or 2 but we'll see.
No time to post a chart today unless someone actually wants to see it.
Took awhile to get in synch w/ the market today. Finally found a long trade for +6.75. Very poor exit based not on PA but on a little panic on seeing the quick action and wanting to book profits . Could have been worse and I could have sold on the first pullback for +2.5. So no complaints and very happy to pick up some points while i continue to learn.
Another thing i noticed was my reluctance to trade after closing the trade. i didn't want to give up any of the days profits and potentialy missed the subsequent short trade. I think i need a separate log sheet to keep track of how often these types of psychological issues pop up. I don't expect it to be a problem but it's something i should track.
Chart attached but no notes.
Still expecting lots of downside in the days ahead.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
This is the goal. To read the chart as easily as today and believe what i see and act on it. I saw every one of these buys and failed to to take them. Why is for me to figure out. The negative a-d numbers and large new lows today was part of it. I need to place less emphasis on that. But this was helpful in gaining more trust and confidence in myself.
I mean really, look at this chart. Sometimes it's so obvious it's hard to believe.
Thanks Snowman, much appreciated.
I like to keep an eye on the a-d to get a feel for what's going. Not watching the 'tick' as some do 'cause i figure it'll just confuse me w/ too much info. Keepin' it simple.
Yeah I know. Some people have a funky way of trading the a-d with the tick but I just never got into it. At the end of the day we all need to find our own road to success. tough.
This trade frustrates me. -1.25 that if i held a minute longer would have been profitable. I've been shaken out of trades before just like this so at least there's a pattern that i can turn in my favor next time, i think. I'll have to review some other trades.
Part of the problem was i hesitated a bit on the entry so felt a little unsure even being in the trade.
After the trade i checked email to clear my mind a bit and missed the reentry.
I think it's possible this was a very inexpensive lesson that will pay off in the long run.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
This trade frustrates me. -1.25 that if i held a minute longer would have been profitable. I've been shaken out of trades before just like this so at least there's a pattern that i can turn in my favor next time, i think. I'll have to review some other trades.
Part of the problem was i hesitated a bit on the entry so felt a little unsure even being in the trade.
After the trade i checked email to clear my mind a bit and missed the reentry.
I think it's possible this was a very inexpensive lesson that will pay off in the long run.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
JP,
Your comments are always appreciated and worth paying attention to. When you told me to put a MA on my charts a while back i honestly didn't see the value. Now after a time of using it , it's starting to click.
I do look at a 5 minute chart as well.
Thanks for the advice i'll be re-reading and studying later.
I'll go buy a protractor this weekend.
Quote from jokepie:
Jas,
I have had similar experience and this is what has helped me with my conviction in a trade.
- I need the moving average to be at a incline higher than 35-40 degrees up/down doesn't matter. (this just sounds technical, however the idea is that there is REAL momentum in the move.)
- If the pull back BARS/CANDLES are of NORMAL (size) and SPEED; Also, its NOT a range bound DAY. I let the trade run free. and some times even add to the position AFTER it starts to move in my favour again.
Hypothesis remains the same; Object in motion will stay in motion, Slow down before STOP and then reverse direction after STOP.
Do you have a higher time/volume frame chart also open with a smaller MA. That sometimes also helps, i.e helps to stay objective and look at the bigger pictures. example IF i trade at 2/3 minute time frame i usually have 5 min chart to guide my trades (especially stops.)
I hope this helps.
EDIT: I just remembered, I also use a LOWER time/tick chart but with heikin ashi candles as a guide.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
I'll go buy a protractor this weekend.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Recap for the day.
as previously posted -1.25 on first trade
2nd trade was an embarrassed- to- post- chart long trade stopped out -2.25
3rd went short about 12:22 and exit 12:57 for +6.75
Net for day +3.25
My entries still need work. I'm hesitating about 30 seconds to a minute +. Pretty decent exit on the last trade. priorLOD was taken out but price stalled. I soon exited.
Big range today that i should have been able to get more of , IMO. My concern is that when the small range days appear again i won't be able to catch any thing but losses. We'll see. I think as long as i'm patient my set ups will work fine.
Very pleased to end the day positive.
No focus today. A bit tired maybe. Missed a good long entry and then didn't feel like chasing the trend although that's what i should have done (up to a point)
So no trades.
Last week i talked about keeping track of my "psych. issues" so i printed up a calendar and i'm keeping track now. Last friday was a "R" "P" day. Revenge trade and profitable for the day.
Today 'N" and zero day. No focus and zero trades. Easy to keep track. I'll see what develops.
I also keep track on my trade worksheets the mistakes i make on entry and exits which are not necessarily psych stuff; like: exit too soon, hesitate on entry, bad read etc.
Today i was patient when i should have been entering and entering when i should have been patient.
2 trades - 3.00 total.
I haven't seen such a wide choppy range before that i recall. Lot's of opportunities but missed them. I'm still having a problem acting on what i see sometimes. I hesitate waiting for more confirmation then price moves quickly. I don't want to chase from the ideal entry point but sometimes the late entry would have worked out just fine. i expect more screen time and further review of my set ups will eventually correct this.
I think i have a decent understanding of what i should be doing. Hopefully it will all come together soon.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Today i was patient when i should have been entering and entering when i should have been patient.
2 trades - 3.00 total.
I haven't seen such a wide choppy range before that i recall.
Lot's of opportunities but missed them. I'm still having a problem acting on what i see sometimes. I hesitate waiting for more confirmation then price moves quickly. I don't want to chase from the ideal entry point but sometimes the late entry would have worked out just fine. i expect more screen time and further review of my set ups will eventually correct this.
I think i have a decent understanding of what i should be doing. Hopefully it will all come together soon.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
If you do enter everytime you feel "IT". only thing you will do is increase your number of trades, its OK if you manage your risk and reward properly.
That'll wake you up.
Nothing exciting to report.
3 trades, - 1.25 total. Still feeling out of synch a bit. My regular workload is increasing and is probably a source of distraction. Even if i'm devoting the first couple hours to trading there's still other work to be done in the back of my mind. No worries though. I'll find a balance.
Psych issues today. I hate seeing $$ left on the table or the points i could have made if i had entered when i first thought about it.
Today:
Missed a trade short. Next went long and got stopped out but quickly reversed short. The second trade was good for 9.75. So now i'm up +7.5 for the day, which is very good for me. Normally i'd be very happy.
However, that second trade i covered at 2304.50 (Todays low 2258)
Missed another trade short around 2295. Not sure why . I may have taken a quick break but i know i only missed by a fraction and didn't want to chase.
So that's about when discipline left to get an early start on the weekend. 3 more short trades after LOD made trying to catch the 'crash' that were all stopped out. R/R wasn't bad on them but the probabilties of them working weren't great I suppose. Ended the day + half point.
Lessons learned today:
1. Get over missed trades and points. It's part of the business and the goal is not necessarily to catch every move.
2. Good trading begets more good trading. If i had taken the entries i should have, there would not have been a need or desire to force trades later on.
Still thinking about multiple cars which would allow a scale out and chance to ride the winners longer. Again though i want a bit more consistency first.
I hope the rest of you made lots today !
Trading is so easy......after the fact.
2 trades net = 0 pts, Errors = 3 ?
1st trade went + 6.75 MFE . I thought about exiting at +6 but decided to use PA for the exit. ended up +2.25
My ultimate goal is to make 3-6 pts a day. My current goal is to become a profitable and consistent trader, which includes trying to let profits run. Seems they may be conflicting goals. It brings up scaling out concept again which i tried in sim but didn't find a big difference. Profit targets ? Maybe.
2nd trade -good entry but price stalled. The premise for this set up suggests it should go higher quickly. Should have exited when premise failed. could have got plus 1 or BE.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Oh, i just had a flash back to sim trading when i had that 'how tough can this be attitude" I think i did something like 20+ trades in two days and 90% losers.
As someone said somewhere in some book quote
"Because he is prepared to run quick -- say, stop his loss at two points when all he hopes to make is two points -- he hugs the fallacy that he is merely taking a fifty-fifty chance"
Very nice analysis,
You will one day start getting pisseed evevn before you utter Could, would should.....
I saw that you drew a line showing the trend and you also have a MA on the chart.
Hesitation is due to the FEAR of being wrong or loosing monies. Its hard to gain confidence when there is no one around you to tell you take it, i believe in your analysis, you are doing a good job and so forth.
Truth is there will be no one ever probably there. You will have to your own coach that needs to push you, when you feel you are right. I am not encouraging over trading. But atleast when you feel you are right (and this changes with experience).
Remember that all the trades that will make you HAPPY the most will be the ones in which you had Anticipated the moves, with either TA or some system and pattern. I believe and this is my personal analysis is that this is because of that lil Gambling bug in our minds that tells you that the ODDS look good and then you WIN and its all fun.
I moved away from that long time ago and it helped me. I now see ACTION i size my self in that move. Obviously has to start strong to get my attention. What this does is that my only bias to enter is SEEING visually something and if that trade fails I do not feel frustated because i do not have anything to BLAME (system, resistence, support, TA etc.)
IF I SEE SOMETHING I DO SOMETHING (period)
Once in the trade, i have been repeating mentally why i enered the trade, because sometimes every new candle seems like it will take me out. SO I keep repeating my hypothesis to myself.
I handle EXITS the same way. I see failure (fast rejection or move) of price I get out. Zooming out of the chart also helps to reduce focus from noise in the price. Plus MA is always a guard rail.
I am not sure what the exact quote is but this is definately from Jesse Livermores book - TAKING A POSITION IS "KEY", and then ONLY THEN MARKET WILL TELL YOU WHERE IT WANTS TO GO. And you will SEE it. He always took small peice when he saw something or felt it.
Hope this helps
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Thanks JP
Price will, at times, suggest where it will go. Believe what you see, act quickly and watch for signs of price rejection.
Something like that ?
Despite my lack of profits i've finally come to believe success is not a question of 'if' but 'when'.
Quote from jokepie:
Very nice analysis,
You will one day start getting pisseed evevn before you utter Could, would should.....
I saw that you drew a line showing the trend and you also have a MA on the chart.
Hesitation is due to the FEAR of being wrong or loosing monies. Its hard to gain confidence when there is no one around you to tell you take it, i believe in your analysis, you are doing a good job and so forth.
Truth is there will be no one ever probably there. You will have to your own coach that needs to push you, when you feel you are right. I am not encouraging over trading. But atleast when you feel you are right (and this changes with experience).
Remember that all the trades that will make you HAPPY the most will be the ones in which you had Anticipated the moves, with either TA or some system and pattern. I believe and this is my personal analysis is that this is because of that lil Gambling bug in our minds that tells you that the ODDS look good and then you WIN and its all fun.
I moved away from that long time ago and it helped me. I now see ACTION i size my self in that move. Obviously has to start strong to get my attention. What this does is that my only bias to enter is SEEING visually something and if that trade fails I do not feel frustated because i do not have anything to BLAME (system, resistence, support, TA etc.)
IF I SEE SOMETHING I DO SOMETHING (period)
Once in the trade, i have been repeating mentally why i enered the trade, because sometimes every new candle seems like it will take me out. SO I keep repeating my hypothesis to myself.
I handle EXITS the same way. I see failure (fast rejection or move) of price I get out. Zooming out of the chart also helps to reduce focus from noise in the price. Plus MA is always a guard rail.
I am not sure what the exact quote is but this is definately from Jesse Livermores book - TAKING A POSITION IS "KEY", and then ONLY THEN MARKET WILL TELL YOU WHERE IT WANTS TO GO. And you will SEE it. He always took small peice when he saw something or felt it.
Hope this helps
I'll post one chart that will perhaps help shame me in to better trading. I get shaken out of good trades too often.
1st trade long exited too soon -1.5 when a small supp area was TESTED. I think i was looking at a smaller time frame chart that probably made it look worse than it was. entry wasn't the best but the trade should have worked; my hard stop would not have been hit.
- 3.5 for the day on 3 trades.
Today i'm trying to focus on staying relaxed and focused on PA while in the trade. Also trying to not get shaken out of profitable trades. There were good reasons for exiting my second trade earlier, rev bar at low, 2b buy, but the trend looked steeply down and volatile so i stayed with it. I had MFE on 2nd trade of 9 and probably could have easily exited at +7. Instead i stayed in and ended up exiting at + 2.25. In the past leaving this much on the table would have bothered me but today it doesn't. It does make me again think about multiple cars and sure i'll take another look at it but no worries at least !
My first trade i should have reversed and gone long but i don't like to start the day with the feeling of overtrading . But this would have been a good set up so there's a mental issue there.
Hey JP, you're words were in my head on my second entry. OK, i don't remember now exactly what you said but basically trade what you SEE and don't hesitate. I'm happy with the entry as all the PA supported it.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Today i'm trying to focus on staying relaxed and focused on PA while in the trade. Also trying to not get shaken out of profitable trades. There were good reasons for exiting my second trade earlier, rev bar at low, 2b buy, but the trend looked steeply down and volatile so i stayed with it. I had MFE on 2nd trade of 9 and probably could have easily exited at +7. Instead i stayed in and ended up exiting at + 2.25. In the past leaving this much on the table would have bothered me but today it doesn't. It does make me again think about multiple cars and sure i'll take another look at it but no worries at least !
My first trade i should have reversed and gone long but i don't like to start the day with the feeling of overtrading . But this would have been a good set up so there's a mental issue there.
Hey JP, you're words were in my head on my second entry. OK, i don't remember now exactly what you said but basically trade what you SEE and don't hesitate. I'm happy with the entry as all the PA supported it.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Ahhh ! I want the trade back. I want the points ! What was i thinking ?
kidding.
Have a great weekend traders.
-2.25 on Monday . No trades yesterday +5.25 today so far.
Have work to do so won't be watching market for a couple hours.
Thought the market had a shot at a nice collapse this morning but wrong again. Maybe this afternoon.
The fill on my exit was not where i would have liked. Maybe next time i'll wait for a retrace ?
Still keep thinking about 2 contracts. Today would have exited 1 at PP and 2nd still holding maybe. I don't know, just thinking out loud.
p.s.
Great trading , Sam ! Stay focused and keep it going.
Sold a LOD around 11:40 -2.25
+3 for the day
Pretty sure these LOD sells rarely work for me. I'll have to stop taking these and look for better entries.
Entries are getting slightly easier for me to recognize and act on timely. I will always be trying to improve on this but then that's the job of a trader.
Exits are my current challenge. I've never liked the idea of profit targets or resting orders to exit but I'm considering everything now.
2 trades this morning +4.25.
One more little pop to the upside left in this market and a very nice top will be. (And if i keep saying that one of these times i'll be right)
Re: Exits.
Losing trades are usually not much of a problem. Either stopped out or trade fails to soon go my way in which case experience says tighten up the stop. Sort of a price action/time stop.
Winning trades i'm not managing well. I figure it's possibly a combination of 1) not having clear enough exit rules and 2) not being in the state of the "quiet mind".
1) I try to exit on PA; reversal bars, TL breaks, S/R etc. Having said that i know from experience that my read of PA is influenced at times by my open profits or how far away i may be from MFE. Profit targets or something more objective may serve me well. This will not be a quick fix and is going to take more time to review.
2) I've read about and known for awhile the concept of the quiet mind. Basically being focused and unemotional. I'm good about this getting into trades but once in i've noticed i slip out of it. (More accurately fall hard out of it.) I flip from chart to chart too much, tapping the foot too much , becoming a little too excited and forgetting to breath. Forgetting to breath ! I'm pretty sure this is common but it doesn't paint a pretty picture.
So the first area i'll be working on is trying stay relaxed and focused in the trade through pre/post-market breathing and relaxation exercises and then try to attain that state while in the trade. Right now i'm not sure when i'll find the time but that's the objective.
No chance today to try out my new calm state of mind.
Stopped out of 2 short trades -4.50
That's all for today
Looking like an interesting day.
+7.50 on 1 trade so far but have work to do so not sure if i'll get any more trades in
Haven't seen a nice M top in awhile so good to see one today. Not the best entry. I'll take it though.
Exit was after it looked like support was holding. Stayed pretty calm and aware of my breathing, body postion etc on this one.
If only the market was so generous everyday.
No trades last two days. Yesterday was choppy and today i was working and missed the one drop that fits my set ups i look for.
At this stage of the game i wonder if i would have taken it.
Made some notes on the chart (not posted) and added to my collection for later review.
2 trades. 1st -2.25 on a long , 2nd + 5.75 on short. +3.50 for the day.
In the past i think i would have been frustrated i didn't make more on a day like today. Although to be fair my trading was slightly limited due to arriving late due to getting over a cold and then had work to do. Anyway, i'm just pleased i was able to finish green.
Here's the big issue for today. I did see one of my favorite short set ups. Thought about taking it then thought "this is so obvious it can't work this time." Naturally it would have been an excellent entry had i taken it.
I'm not used to seeing set ups develop so easily and be so text book. Usually there more ambiguity.
I guess i'm wondering if anybody else ever sees set ups so clearly ? I guess this is the ultimate goal, right ? See it unemotionally and with time to act.
It's always interesting...
Absolutely no discipline today.
Trying to shake this cold so slept in and missed some of the down move. (first 2 hours of trading) After that just started chasing at the wrong time. I've been waiting for a market correction and kind of kept thinking i can't miss this move. On one hand i think the R:R was there, on the other i think i should have exercised more patience.
3 trades - 5.75
Tomorrow i'll exercise more focus and patience.
Just look at the charts and see whn you entered trade ...Were you the right side of the EMA ? Was ur trade in the direction of the trade. Did you get out when you were suppose to.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Thanks JP i hear what you're saying. I did manage to do all that.
First trade the move was pretty extended from the prior consolidation area. I should have passed or at least entered sooner. full stop + .25 slippage, -2.50
2 trade- i like. I'd do it again. -1.75
3rd trade - again should have entered sooner. -1.5
After 3 rd trade i had clients to see and was done which was probably a good thing.
I am glad that you are using MA, However I want to warn you that, since our brain reacts to visual signals and its easy to start gazing at the MA rather than the price !! Its like ur eyes start to lock on them.
What helps - Zoom out - back and forth after few minutes.
It is important to keep telling yourself this !! Until you KNOW it.
GL.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Thanks JP i hear what you're saying. I did manage to do all that.
First trade the move was pretty extended from the prior consolidation area. I should have passed or at least entered sooner. full stop + .25 slippage, -2.50
2 trade- i like. I'd do it again. -1.75
3rd trade - again should have entered sooner. -1.5
After 3 rd trade i had clients to see and was done which was probably a good thing.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
The whole sheet, each arrows move together.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
Just noticed something - Pointing it out. May be it helps.
Look at your chart. Imagine your ARROWS on the chart were actually drawn on a transparent Sheet (tracing sheet). Now move THAT SHEET little to the LEFT. (I hope it does not sounds crazy). Only a few candles !!!
Do you see it. ????
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Protractors and tracing paper. This is getting good.
I see that if i want to take these trades there are earlier entry clues: ?
If you do move all the trades few bars to the left - IT translates that you entered LATE in each case and by almost the SAME AMOUNT OF time may be a minute or two. Its just a matter of response time and it will get better in due time. It just tells you that you are on the right path.
1st trade the MA acts as resistance as well as price moving to a prior s/r area. price shows rejection and LH and LL
2nd trade also a few LH bars and price rejection ( close well off the high of the bar) AND at a resistance area.
3rd - same resistance area around 2295. strong thrust bar down through MA
MA is NOT a resistance. Its like a ONE WAY sign on the street - Price may or may not follow it. Price is the ultimate. ONLY ASSERTION to be drawn from MA is that when they are stretched at an angle up or down. that is the direction of the momentum. Steeper the angle, longer you can STAY in the trade. DO NOT USE for ENTRIES. Just managing trades or exits.
You know humans look for structure, HL LH etc.. same thing with the "Great dipper" in the sky its just a mere RANDOM arrangement of stars. I do not focus too much on them.
your 2nd trade was one of the better trade than the other two. Money is IN the anticipation of the MOVE. 1st and 3rd were just a lil too late.
Especially in the 3rd trade ...did you feel you froze after the price started to break faster and harder after failing to make a new high ? and you WAITED looking for a pull back to enter ?
Freezing is due to waht i mentioned earlier - need more experience to get confidence to hit the trigger.
Looking for pullback - is because you want or looking for structure.
Pull back entries work better on LONGS than on shorts, SHORTS are just Inherently uncertain trades.
Part of this is accepting the uncertaintity of entry and to avoid waiting for too much confirmation.
Whataya think ?
You said exactly what i babbled above. Your Professional edge is to deal with Uncertainty and accepting is the first step. Imagine you were on the floor of CME with floor trader and its your 3rd trade. As the High/Top failed you could hear roars or SELL orders but you waited until you could start hearing BUY louder than SELL and then SHORTED??? LARGE UGLY reds or GREENS are your EDGE...thats where the Main action is..momentum...pullbacks are COVERS or Speculator buys!!!
And lastly i think my edge is my patience and focus. i did not have that today.
Thanks !
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
thanks again. I still doubt my trading abilities on days like today. I really appreciate your thoughts and encouragement .
Very embarrassed to say that my trading continues to implode.
And to be perfectly honest i feel i'm disappointing those who have been trying to help me. (JP and a couple people who have PM'd me.)
6 trades -8.75
Was trying to not hesitate today. The bigger issues were not taking good set ups. The market was volatile and choppy and i should have been more patient. By the tine the nice uptrend started i was done. I'm also still trading "hope" .
I was short going into the LOD which was strong support. It held and reversed and my MFE of 7 turned into a 1 pt profit. I kept giving it more time figuring if it reversed through LOD it would be a great trade.
I'm determined to get this right and be very profitable. I must get back to patience, focus and acting quickly when the set up is there. I think i should write down reminders of what clear exit signals are. ie The LOD was a bullish reversal bar on the 5 minute chart. That's a pretty solid reversal signal i saw develop and ignored.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Very embarrassed to say that my trading continues to implode.
And to be perfectly honest i feel i'm disappointing those who have been trying to help me. (JP and a couple people who have PM'd me.)
6 trades -8.75
Was trying to not hesitate today. The bigger issues were not taking good set ups. The market was volatile and choppy and i should have been more patient. By the tine the nice uptrend started i was done. I'm also still trading "hope" .
I was short going into the LOD which was strong support. It held and reversed and my MFE of 7 turned into a 1 pt profit. I kept giving it more time figuring if it reversed through LOD it would be a great trade.
.....
Quote from Matcha:
OMG. I just had the same feeling , same day as you had too..
Hate to disappoint the traders who have been so supportive and giving me best advice and want me to succeed(not many people will do that).
Today's volatility made me sick on my stomach too.. the volatility also created the larger risks. and I over traded too.
I think we should forget about all the feelings now. Foucs focus on the setups, focus on analyzing the trades after market. Focus on "think probablities". Never give up!
I recommend, find some time and read this quick read...!!
"reminiscence of a stock operator" A biography of the greatest wall streets best. Back in the Days. His theory's still work 100 yrs later..
and its inspirational.
Trust me...I have blown up a/cs after a/c to get where i am . I wish I hadn't. I had some one to guide me instead of market FISTING me for years to teach me how to dance.
There is a quote from the book: - " I can't help making money" Sweet.
Something that helped me in Day trading was that I started trading on a 5 min chart as if it was a DAILY CHART. I created an illusion and soon it became a reality.
Jas - gave you the link to the thread before. I know it will take time for this concept to sink in...or might not even work for you. But I believe in sharing and teaching makes my Game better. So I have all the selfish interest in this. So should you do.
Look at the same chart from today - remove the time and price axis from it. and think WOULD you have traded it differently if each candle took a DAY ??
Have a good weekend,
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
We all travel the same road don't we. I've read Livermore and at least 100+ books over the past many years. I too have blown up stock accts by being incredibly overleveraged on margin. Not proud of it still have a few scars, but that's for talk over beers or some good wine sometime.
I've checked out the other thread you mentioned and a few others in the psych area here.
I do like your idea to look at the 5 as if it were a daily and i'll pull out the Livermore book again.
Despite my set backs i feel more prepared and confident than ever before. i have a pretty good idea of what i NEED to do and part of that includes just focused screen time.
Thanks JP, You have a great one too !
Just looking for green today.
2 trades + 3.25
1st trade attached.
good entry , poor exit
2nd trade . not a great entry but made up for it with a good exit.
only made 1 point but traded what i saw and avoided hoping for more.
The 2B sell off the highs would have been a good entry. I need to study these more.
no trades yesterday.
so far today 4 trades +1 point. still lots of room for improvement.
Food for thought...
Have you see a Steel Cable ? They are hard, tuff but can bend. However to bend them it take some force AND they dont bend at 90 degrees easily.
Now Imagine ur MA was a Cable like that....heavier it gets as you increase the period = thickness of the cable. Heavier is harder to bend.
Price action = Forces to bend the Cable !! Longer candle, consecutive onese mean higher force !!!
1st trade, a good technique to limit the loss by stops based on money management. However, Always remember, and I know they you KNOW this - That your entries WILL NEVER BE PERFECT, nobody can do that!!! NO body. So once you make the entry, ur stop should ONLY activate if the price ACTUALLY changes Direction/ trend.
Since you can never pick perfect entries stops should give enuf room to cancel the noise. Some will say it should be certain points for NQ, or right below ur entry bla bla... fact is it should be determined based on the Trend.
If the trend JUST started or YOU anticipated the trend. STops hould be as close as possible (still based on the previous price action).
IF the TREND is in motion (Give room) as that heavy cable (actually the market) is on your side. You should relax and be more confident.
Its like a Anticipatory trade is RISKIER and there fore more REWARD as you get in EARLY. that why needs better risk and reward. on the other hand established trends have low risk, low rewards (expected off course) and can have looser risk management.
You might think that you have a system with set rules. But practically and theoretically one system cannot achieve consistent results in a purely random structure of the market. Its like trying to fit random sized balls in a fixed size bucket, you will always get different number of balls in. That is the reason why folks dont get consitent results and think there is something wrong with them !!!
i think i puked enuf for a lunch break !! need get salad and loose some weight.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Been busy w/ work last couple days. Today had some internet issues for a bit.
Got 1 trade in for +2.75. Very unspectaculer trading on my part. Late entry had me second guessing, resulting in an early exit. Think i was more focused on replacing some mental capital over anything else. Some days i need that. No complaints.
Thanks JP, for your 'steel cable' post.
I like to have names for the set ups and price action i see. Calling something an M Top, reversal bar , 2b sell, whatever, allows me to not only more easily recognize it in real time but to also go back over past charts and identify whether it's a valid pattern.
Yesterday, i was watching the market drop but didn't see any patterns i could name. It just 'felt' like it was going to go lower. I figure this is my subconscious recognizing something that "I" wasn't. It happens sometimes and i kept hesitating looking for a name , a reason, to go short. Finally I found a setup but because i had "missed" so much already (unwarranted bias on my part) i exited too soon.
Looking at it today maybe the DT is valid enough reason. I also now see a measured move some of you talk about that would have projected price going to 2346 which could have kept me in the trade.
Missed a couple short entrys and then to punish myself I shorted near the low. I knew as i was doing it this was a revenge trade against myself and a poor entry.
I've shut down my trading platform for now until i have better focus and discipline.
Overall, this should be an easy fix. My other workload is no doubt distracting me. Still, not too pleased at this exact moment.
Soon the quest continues.
I haven't traded or looked at any intraday action in about 6 weeks. Busy season at work has passed so i'll soon be able to focus on trading. For the next couple weeks I plan on reviewing and adjusting my trading plan, reviewing set ups and generally getting back in to it.
I picked up several books to keep me busy too.
One Good Trade - M Bellafiore So far an easy yet informative read. A good reminder of the basics - discipline and hard work. Only about 50 pages in right now.
Market in Profile- Dalton. Snowman recommended this book. I'm looking forward to it when i can devote the time.
New Commodity trading Guide - g. Kleinman.
Real Happiness: The Power of Mediation - Salzberg . Almost done with this and tried meditating once. I thought meditating might keep me more focused during market hours. Not sure how this will work out as finding the time to do it is going to be a problem. If i knew it would be helpful i'd make the time but not sure right now. But i guess i should try it more than once, huh ?
Next thurs off to Cabo for 4 nights for the annual guys trip. After that hangover wears off i'll be ready for some serious market study. Looking forward to it !
Studied some charts this past week and am easing back into trading. It's not quite like riding a bike.
Did 2 sim trades today for a net of 4.50 NQ points. Placed a resting limit sell order at my profit target rather than use my typical fully discretionary exit. This is new for me. The idea is to take out some of the confusion, second guessing and stress of when to take profits. Going forward i expect to always be using profit targets but will consider exiting sooner if PA suggests. When my consistency improves i'll enter w/ multiple cars and scale out.
no chart, as who really wants to see Sim trades ?
i do some of my trades are sim, some are real. I personally post them all
Hey Snowman, How's it going ?
Here's yesterdays chart and trades w/ notes
Market a little slow and choppy so i'll post this mornings trade. Cash acct today- no sim. -1 point
The entry is a pretty good example, i think , of reading price action and not trading a specific pattern set up.
The exit is not so good but i was able to tighten up my initial stop at least.
I'm trying to analyze the PA not in terms of price so much but as other traders. Who's going to get hurt if price moves here and what are they feeling currently. This type of thinking is not exactly easy for me but hopefully with some practice i'll get a better feel for it that will be helpful.
In terms of points made, today was my best day ever. + 15.50 NQ points. 2 trades +17.75 , -2.25
A couple things worth noting.
In my private journal i wrote the other day : Strive for perfection but realize it's unattainable. and: It's possible to be very profitable without being perfect.
I wasn't entirely pleased with my entry and started thinking i should have entered earlier. Then i realized my entry was valid where it was and IT WASN'T PERFECT BUT THAT'S OK.
I did not place any resting exit orders at targets but instead watched those area of prior support. Fortunately today was a no brainer once in the trade as the market did a good job of falling pretty quick. The exit was after a bounce off support and a TL break.
2nd trade not a great read and i realized the entry i used was not applied in the proper context, ie market still in a bit of chop. Call it a tuition trade.
Not sure if i can post 2 charts in in one post but trying. Both are of the first winning trade. Basically selling the B/O of the triangle
Looks like you can't post 2 charts. Here's the big picture chart. I may have to frame this one and put it on the wall. Very pretty !
2 trades +7.75 ( short + 3.50, long +4.25)
Missed 1 long trade after exiting the first trade. The little DB after my exit. I was taking a break to avoid forcing/overtrading. Would have been a good one but more concerned with building my confidence and patience. In time i'll catch those as well.
After the second trade i was pretty much done. I'm not trying to catch every swing. Just want to get to the point where i can get 4 - 10 points/ day consistently. I know, aren't we all. Still was watching but nothing looked solid.
The second trade missed my target resting order by 1 tick , stalled then fell. Decided to close at that point despite some small support. Good or bad i justed wanted to book the win. Entry was a nice triangle B/O . It felt a little slow at first but the volume was confirming and the ES and DJIA were leading the way.
Trading very calmly lately which i think maybe just comes with experience. After blowing so many trades and missing trades you get to the point where "it is what it is, i'll either catch them or i won't". Geez, 2 days of profits and i'm a goddmamn philosopher of trading. i better stop here.
Good Job Jas,
Keep a objective mind and just focus on the price action. Thats the ultimate key.
There is no loss in missing a trade. U did well.. Try to do market orders when you feel you are ready. As taking a position is as important as identifing the trend.
Also, After the day is over, Look at the Over al price action in different markets on a longer time frame - 15 min or 30 min, not on Daily.
Try to see if the following
- Does the over all trend (bull in current scenario) affect the profitability of LONGS tover shorts. i.e. IF you would have taken longs at the positive price action even though market seemed to be crashing in the short term - would that have been an edge ?
- Look at the mid day action in the time frame as noted in the above bullet. Do you see stronger buying action during mid day on DOWN days in a Bull Market.
- Look at the opening and closing actions - the first hr and last hr.
see if there is a long bias in the last hr of the day even on DOWN days in BULL market.
Hope this helps..
GL>
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Thanks JP for the suggestions. They are always welcomed.
I had the steel cable MA in mind yesterday which helped keep me in the trade through the minor pullbacks.
Good trading to you !
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Just want to get to the point where i can get 4 - 10 points/ day consistently. I know, aren't we all.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Had a hard time focusing and getting a good read on the PA today. Maybe because it's first week back trading and still adjusting to getting up earlier.
Took 3 trades for + .75
My best move of the day was getting in long after my first short was stopped out. I'm happy i was able to get back in quickly with a good read of PA. Did move my trailing stop up a little tight though.
No complaints w/ trades i took but would have liked to have caught some of the big down move. I'll review that later.
Afternoon was chop for the way i trade and i did a good job of staying out.
Ended the week with 8 trades +23 pts. + 4.50 pts in sim monday. That's my best week ever. Hopefully it's the beginning of a trend.
Quote from jokepie:
I am glad it helped you.
Just wanted to point out. That the quoted line might subconsciously sabotage your game...... When you are below that target you will feel you did not do good, above it you might get careless....and around the target you might leave some on the table that might dramatically skew your return, you never know when that 6 sigma event will hit. I say this coz I know you posted upon the book - power of now.
Its of great feeling when you believe that trading is merely an event/ or a task that you do or participate, just like driving to the grocery store. its not the Means to make money or achieve a goal (certain PnL). Its not easy to get this, but once you can achieve this state of mind, trading becomes very Boring. I mean fun but less emotional.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
. And on occasion its affecting my decision that day to continue trading or not. I think right right now it comes down to booking profits to build my 'psychological capital" ie confidence.
Thanks for getting me to think this through and talk it out a bit.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Missed a good short entry so rather than chase it I'll distract myself here.
Shown on chart is a trade i didn't feel comfortable taking today but because of the 1-2-3 low pattern i forced myself to take it. Quickly stopped out.
I wonder if there any other clues than the 1 noted on the chart that i should have avoided this trade.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Missed a good short entry so rather than chase it I'll distract myself here.
Shown on chart is a trade i didn't feel comfortable taking today but because of the 1-2-3 low pattern i forced myself to take it. Quickly stopped out.
I wonder if there any other clues than the 1 noted on the chart that i should have avoided this trade.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Yes i should have got short after the failure of that last b/o in the pullback.
I'm trading too conservatively. It's intentional right now as i'm trying to build my confidence and get a string of profitable days together. Possibly not the best plan but i think it's working. I still find myself questioning some set ups so i don't want to overtrade and get frustrated. I do feel hesitant about taking some entries for FEAR of a quick reversal. I'm trying to remind myself to see the bigger trend and trust my ability. We'll see how that goes. And as i've said before trading involves uncertaintity and i need to remember and accept that.
Soon i'll push myself to catch more of the swings on a day like today that had several of them.
3 trades today first BE
2nd short shown on previous chart +7
then the long -2.25
Net + 4.75
Profitable on a point basis 5 of last 6 days
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
FEAR of a quick reversal.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
thanks JP guess i'm trying to catch all the moves without paying any bribes.
but right , i need to listen to the market when a trade doesn't work out. It's telling me my analysis may be wrong.
I must say i'm rather pleased with the way i handled this trade.
Couple things i did right were 1 ) patience after the entry. The ES YM were not confirming this move and the NQ was stalling. I almost exited with 1 point loss but price was still above a nice support area so i held.
2) I exited at my target without hesitation. In the past i would have probably held on to let my profits run but as noted on the chart there were 3 good reasons to exit. Also the ES & YM were still acting weak. I don't expect it will always work out this way but nice when it does. When i begin to trade 2 contracts I would have trailed a stop on the second one.
I got in to office late today so missed the nice down move. I'll see what else develops today.
+5 on this trade Chart attached showing how i picked my target exit
+3.50 on another long +8.50 for the day . I'm done.
Thought this trade would work higher on more short covering. Stalled at resistance so took quick exit.
If the rest of the month continues well I'll probably start trading 2 contracts in June and try scaling out.
1st trade -1.50
2nd +2.50
3rd -2.25
net -1.25 for the day .
Had a hard time getting a feel for the market today. Last trade was forced a bit. Not sure if i should have taken it but no regrets.
The 2nd trade had the potentional to make the day profitable IF i were trading 2 cars. I was thinking i would have exited 1 at + 3 when price stalled then held the other for at least another 4 pts. Woulda, coulda. I need to size up and put my PnL where my mouth is. I'll stop whining about it and do like i said the other day and wait till the month is over. I don't want to size up too quickly given my past performance of inconsistency but it's beginning to feel like it's the right thing to do.
**** STEEL CABLES ****
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
**** STEEL CABLES ****
A slight bit frustrated at the moment.
1st trade probably not a great entry but it resulted in a failed breakout which is the set up for next Long entry. Price stalled and i started thinking i should use a 'time stop' 'cause usually my trades work out pretty quickly. So i finally exit then naturally price takes off. Missed the re-entry 'cause i had a phone call.
Lessons learned today. re -think time stops, price action wasn't great but it was still consolidating and holding pretty well. Be willing to take some heat when necessary.
Stress & frustration are not conducive to good trading so i've taken some deep breaths, took a short break and now ready to focus on the next opportunity.
And note to self: This is part of trading. You will miss moves. As you get better you will miss less but it will never be perfect. Accept that.
Reply to self: Fck you i should have caught it.
Breath, breath...
2 trades today + 2.50 pts. For the week +12.50 NQ pts. 2 weeks in a row of profits.
The errors i'm noting that i make are mostly hesitation or not taking entries. I think this is partly lack of confidence, misreading price action sometimes and being overly patient. I figure with continued review of set ups and trades along with more screen time i'll improve. This has been my most common error lately so i will have to try to push myself to take more trades. Today i was feeling a bit rundown so that didn't help.
The mistakes i used to make were more often chasing the markets, revenge trades and being impatient and forcing trades. That's not happening much lately. I definitely feel more in control of my trading lately.
Have a good weekend Traders.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
2 trades today + 2.50 pts. For the week +12.50 NQ pts. 2 weeks in a row of profits.
The errors i'm noting that i make are mostly hesitation or not taking entries. I think this is partly lack of confidence, misreading price action sometimes and being overly patient. I figure with continued review of set ups and trades along with more screen time i'll improve. This has been my most common error lately so i will have to try to push myself to take more trades. Today i was feeling a bit rundown so that didn't help.
The mistakes i used to make were more often chasing the markets, revenge trades and being impatient and forcing trades. That's not happening much lately. I definitely feel more in control of my trading lately.
Have a good weekend Traders.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
...you are doing good.
1st trade -1.50 but had MFE +4.25
2nd trade -2.25
3rd +5.50 MFE 9.75
Net +1.75 for the day.
No complaints on first trade. Think i traded it fine.
2nd trade was questionable entry buying into resistance.
3rd trade was a buy of a triangle breakout. I would like to have entered this sooner but I didn't see any valid reason to.
In review the exit was not ideal. I thought that final breakout would turn into a nice run. Being that it was still at a resistance area of last week i should have made that my target and been happy with 9+ points.
Going forward my goal will be to concentrate on target exits.
I was also feeling a bit excited (greed, hope) on the final breakout which probably influenced my read of price action. Again, having targets will help eliminate this.
I'd like to ask-Whats the fascination with the 888 vol chart??I use multi
vol charts and multi time charts, not that I'm doing any better than you!
Quote from pt199:
I'd like to ask-Whats the fascination with the 888 vol chart??I use multi
vol charts and multi time charts, not that I'm doing any better than you!
Guess i was due for a mini meltdown -9 pts, 0 for 4 trading. 
Had a hard time getting a read on PA today. That should have been a clue to take it easy. I'm not feeling mentally sharp today either and guess i thought i could just force myself to focus.
It was all very amateurish trading. I bought in a consolidation expecting a breakout and ignored the context and obvious weakness. And thinking , well if it can just move above resistance we'll get some nice short covering.
I sold the low which quickly retraced. Stuff like that.
On the plus side there were clear signs i should not have entered these trades. I see them now and usually do a good job of seeing them in real time, too.
I did break a rule in that i'm not supposed to trade anymore if i have 3 losses in a row for the day.
Tonight i'll get some exercise and a good night sleep and come in focused and ready tomorrow.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Guess i was due for a mini meltdown -9 pts, 0 for 4 trading.
Had a hard time getting a read on PA today. That should have been a clue to take it easy. I'm not feeling mentally sharp today either and guess i thought i could just force myself to focus.
It was all very amateurish trading. I bought in a consolidation expecting a breakout and ignored the context and obvious weakness. And thinking , well if it can just move above resistance we'll get some nice short covering.
I sold the low which quickly retraced. Stuff like that.
On the plus side there were clear signs i should not have entered these trades. I see them now and usually do a good job of seeing them in real time, too.
I did break a rule in that i'm not supposed to trade anymore if i have 3 losses in a row for the day.
Tonight i'll get some exercise and a good night sleep and come in focused and ready tomorrow.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Well, at least i was focused today. Yesterday after my meltdown I realized i was pretty tired. Add that to the morning checklist from now on. Are you rested and in a good state of mind ? It occurs to me since there's no one here to monitor my trading and readyness I need to be both trader and coach. Yesterday my coaching ability sucked. I should have been sent to the locker room after the second trade.
Today 0 for 2. -4.50 pts. Not terrible entries, i think. Second trade i did not manage my exit well.
Overall i had a hard time getting a good read on PA again. Looking back i see a nice entry that i did not take. If time allows today i'll take a look on replay. I started recording the session today using Ninja's replay feature.
Mentally i feel much better today. Just keep studying and not stress about past mistakes. But do learn from them.
1 trade + 2.25 MFE 5. Exit ? Hmmm...
Didn't care for the price action today so played cautiously.
Will review ' cause think i missed a decent entry.
And so it goes.
1 trade today + 1. Believe i managed the exit poorly when I sold at support. Anticipated it would break support and i'd be back to even, but it held. Had i held through the test i might have got 3 points.
-8.50 points for the week. Wednesday killed me and if i had stuck w/ my "stop trading after 3 losing trades" rule i'd ONLY be down -6.25.
But i didn't stop.
Doing a quick review of the week it's not as bad as it first appears. I did have a couple good entries but the exit was less than ideal. 1 trade i failed to use an exit target or rather ignored it and gave back 4 points. A couple other trades just held too long despite signs of trade not working.
I always keep track of my mistakes on my individual trade worksheets that then gets filed in a binder along with the chart. What i started doing this week is keeping a small notebook on my desk. I have the page divided down the middle. Left side mistakes for the day right side correction actions for the day. It's pretty handy to review what i need to work on and by keeping track of what i'm doing right i don't get discouraged. This week mistakes were: buying/selling into res/sup, poor read of price action, not exiting at target and overtrading/lack of discipline.
I think this will be very helpful going forward to keep me aware of what i should be focusing on.
I've got another idea I'm going to to try next week to help me monitor my intra-day performance and discipline. I'll post on it next week if it looks like it's working.
Pre-holiday slow so i'm done for the day.
Good to see you trading again Jas
Liked the post about trading relaxed...
Hooti,
Glad to see you're still around. How's the trading going ? Are you going to continue w/ your journal ?
I'm feeling good right now about trading. I started 'for real' in Jan and lost points. In Feb my losses were reduced to 25% of Jan. In March I cleared 1.5 points (whoo hooo!)
April I lost 6.25 pts. But in May I started working online one on one with a mentor (3 hrs a week, usually during the open), as part of the class package I have. It has really helped and I am developing some consistancy, and hopefully know why that is happening.
Posting seemed somehow to distract me right now, so I have rarely, and it has not helped my mentor understand what I'm doing... which was my intention from the start.
But I have learned so much from others posts, I'd like to begin again. Really appreciate you all.
Quote from Hooti:
I'm feeling good right now about trading. I started 'for real' in Jan and lost points. In Feb my losses were reduced to 25% of Jan. In March I cleared 1.5 points (whoo hooo!)
April I lost 6.25 pts. But in May I started working online one on one with a mentor (3 hrs a week, usually during the open), as part of the class package I have. It has really helped and I am developing some consistancy, and hopefully know why that is happening.
Posting seemed somehow to distract me right now, so I have rarely, and it has not helped my mentor understand what I'm doing... which was my intention from the start.
But I have learned so much from others posts, I'd like to begin again. Really appreciate you all.
3 trades
short -1.25
long -2.25
long + 3.75
net +.25 for the day.
Kind of a slow grind today. Nice run up in the last hour that i missed because i had pretty much stopped watching.
Loss on first trade was due to a bad price read i think. Shorted a pullback but the reversal leading to the pullback showed some signs of bullish strength. Probably should have expected the low to hold and stayed out of it.
2 trade is becoming a common mistake. I'm anticipating price too much. Thought the move would continue into a nice breakout but instead ended up buying at resistance which held. There are times when anticipating the break out works and other times when you must wait. Outside of market hours i have a fair idea of when to wait and when not to. During market hours I'm not getting it. I'll write up more notes for myself.
3rd trade. Waited for the breakout rather than anticipate. How 'bout that, it worked ! The market does reward proper trading.
-1.50 pts , 3 trades.
Dow - 280 today. All trades to the short side so at least i was trading the right direction.
1st trade I hesitated then chased. 2 mistakes.
2nd trade exited on a pullback, -half point. Mistake was not being willing to take heat (which would have been 1.25 points, hindsight is great) and exiting near a resistance area.
3rd trade had MFE of 5.5 then exited at +1.00 to lock something in.
Had to leave and missed last hour and a half.
I need to remember the market doesn't know where i got in. Watch S/R a little closer on pullbacks and exit based on PA not on a trade going from profit to loss. Be willing to take more heat. This is Trading 101 ; start doing it !
Part of the day, the early part, i was thinking i don't know what i'm doing. Then later i thought this is easy , don't over analyze just look at what the market is telling you.
Frustrating to miss the big moves but it won't be the last time and there are always more opportunities tomorrow.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
-don't over analyze just look at what the market is telling you.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
***STEEL CABLES***
Dont push urself today, its gonna be choppy. may be some movement towards the close.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Thanks JP i was thinking the same earlier but did catch some of the short through OR(1st hour) Low.
NASDAQ showing strength . YM & ES still below ORL.
Going to be interesting.
Nice call JP. chop.
1 short trade +5.25 MFE 10.00
I accept i will never master exits. However, I will try to improve on them.
It just now occurs to me that on my trades that move a few points in my favor then retrace I am impatient (afraid ?) and exit too soon. With trades that run well in my favor i possibly hold too long. Since the big winners (approx 10 pts for me) come less frequently maybe i should just grab them when i have 'em. I doubt I'll do it as it goes counter to my current beliefs but i'll give it more thought.
Attached chart , placed my exit above the ORL as a trailing stop.
It looks like you did a good job there on the exit.
For polishing your exits -
You need to Identify the daily ranges in % (just guess based on the pre market activity and FTSE/NIKKE activity) It does not nesesarily be used to set target but Exits. They both are different. Target and exit both can be derived from the expected daily ranges.
Since I trade equities mostly, I know that the avg. move in the Futures of Indexes, sector I am trading in and then I have a feeler exit plan in the back of my mind.
lets say the futures are about 0.50% down, I am looking for stocks in the down move WITH VOLUME (this is a game changer for daytraders in equities). My expected exit of a profitable trade would be some where around that number. IF the profit runs over that number anything over that is a gift. Usually STOCKS on the move overshoot futures say by twice on an average.
Problem (I dont want you to convert to equities)with futures is that they are CHoppy for the most part of the day - very few directional moves with clearer entry points. Once on the move, they move quickly and in a volatile manner. They can retrace more than the "reasonable". Stocks seldome do that. you can excercise better position management and risk.AAND the Best seller is that you have way to many options. By options, I dont mean not all the 10K stocks listed on the exchanges, but selected few (may be 10 - that fit my filters for ON THE MOVE STOCKS) there will be few EVERY DAY. with little of no reactions. I can post a few if you want. Its a no secret to any successful equities trader. However, the day its CHOP oN futures you will get burnt easily if you are not patient.
Futures can mean alot of money, quick with leverage. But you have to be a Sharp shooter Elite - SNIPER.
Wait ...See ....Kill ....Retreat.
GL.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
It looks like you did a good job there on the exit.
For polishing your exits -
You need to Identify the daily ranges in % (just guess based on the pre market activity and FTSE/NIKKE activity) It does not nesesarily be used to set target but Exits. They both are different. Target and exit both can be derived from the expected daily ranges.
Someday (soon) i'll be a decent trader. maybe not great but decent.
-4 points today , 4 trades and net zero for week.
Mostly i enter on breakouts. For whatever reason stalled pullbacks scare the shit out of me and i just stay out of them. Going to have to work on that because i'm missing some good entries.
My stops RARELY get hit and then have the market turn and run in the expected direction. Today that happened twice. One could have been avoided if i hadn't hesitated on the entry. I'd prefer not to widen my stops but it's something i'll consider. Certainly based on the chart my stop should have been wider. I think my problem is entries though.
1st trade was a good entry (not a brreakout) but when support held and price moved strong i exited for -.5. Lesson here is just because support held doesn't mean resistance is going to be taken out in the opposite direction. Probably should have given this trade more time. Drawdown would have been 1.25 pt had i held. Upside today - the moon !
At least i did better than last week.
So in regards to stops. I could pick my exit area first and then make sure my entry is with 2.25 points of that stop. The problem is then sometimes i'll miss trades because price is too far from stop. I've gone through this whole debate with myself months and years ago and I like the fixed point stop based on entry. It's easy (that's not necessarily a good thing) and i don't miss any trades.
Wider stop ? Maybe but based on past trades i shouldn't need to. If volatility picks up so that i continue to get whipsawed then i will have to adapt and use wider stops.
The solution to days like yesterday are good entries. I missed a good entry after the first trade and I hesitated on the second. If i hadn't done that that solves alot. Re-entries. I need to realize my stops getting hit were whipsaw retracements. My view of direction was correct and nothing changed to alter that view. Usually when i'm stopped out it's because i'm wrong on the direction. I then sit and wait till i figure out whats going on. Yesterday, maybe i should have realized sooner i was trading the right direction and market structure was still heading lower. I'm not sure what i'm saying here. Realize difference between a whipsaw stop and look for reentry versus a stop that means you were wrong. Something like that.
Confidence and conviction. Again the first trade. I don't want to be arrogant with the market and maintain my short trade bias when it holds support . But i need to have a little more confidence that i know what i'm doing and stick with this trade a bit longer. Be willing to take some heat. This is tough and hopefully I just need more market experience.
Monday: uneventfull 2 trades -1.00 . Then had internet problems
Tuesday waited around for Verizon to come fix internet. (btw, impressed w/ their service. Tech fixed problem and recommended a new modem, vz shipped new modem to me overnight)
Today Began trading 2 contracts. Didn't get a chance to scale out of anything as nothing really moved much after entry. Ended up minus 2 points total or 1 point per car. 3 trades.
Did a good job on second trade of taking some heat.
Third trade I should not have taken. I see that now. It was a poor read of PA on my part.
I definitely feel i should be trading better at this point but I realize it will not help to worry or become frustrated about it. So some more review and back at it tomorrow.
working hard for nothing so far. 4 trades net -2.25 points per contract. trading 2 cars today. was even after 3 trades.
1st three trades had good entries. 1st trade didn't get enough follow through and ES acting stronger so i exited.
2nd trade price made another new low and stalled. ES did not make a new low so i exited.
I think i may have to stop watching ES. It's not helping.
I was thinking about 'confirmation bias" after that second trade. The idea that we look for or put more weight on evidence that supports our position/belief.
I think i had the opposite of confirmation bias. I was looking for evidence i was wrong and found it in the ES.
3rd trade not shown on chart was a nice long entry that broke out and stalled.
4th trade i may have rushed the entry a bit buying a break out.
For the most part trading OK, focused with good entry reads. Exits need some work.
C
A
B
L
*
*
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Exactly.
I was in the state of mind of ready to take heat on the second trade but then outsmarted myself by watching the ES too much.
lesson learned , i think.
trades 3 and 4 attached. trade 4 not entirely proud of. trade 3 if anything should have exited sooner but i don't think it's too bad
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Exactly.
I was in the state of mind of ready to take heat on the second trade but then outsmarted myself by watching the ES too much.
lesson learned , i think.
trades 3 and 4 attached. trade 4 not entirely proud of. trade 3 if anything should have exited sooner but i don't think it's too bad
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
thanks JP. great advice.
I had laser focus MOST of the day but focused on a couple wrong things. Still i think something good must have been etched in the gray matter today.
been noticing a few new nuances this week that will eliminate some of my common mistakes. Lots to review today too. Interesting action - a weeks worth of possible set ups in one day
How interesting to feel so close and yet realize how much more i need to learn. A fair amount of cursing today.
2 charts of my 1st trade
Problems i see in my trading are, as JP has pointed out, i'm not weighing the overall trend enough and then I get shaken out by my poor read of PA. I think that's the problem anyway. Notations on chart.
As noted on chart i only entered w/ 1 car because unsure of entry. Had i entered w/ 2 i would have exited 1 at first hour low which would have likely kept me out of the next 2 losing trades. Hey it's Monday, i'll play quarterback as much as i like.
another look in shorter timeframe. Used 500 vol as market a little slow
You can also see my attempts to disrespect the multiweek low (in pink) and sell above it. Genius !
Was slightly profitable on first trade so did 2 cars on second trade for a full stop.
I'll post 1 more chart of my last trade in the next post when the cursing really started.
(BTW, i'm kidding on the cursing, it was mild and I'm really not frustrated at all. I really am learning some good stuff and reinforcing some positive beliefs in my methods )
last trade. only 1 car . Again 2 cars ..blah..blah..blah..
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
last trade. only 1 car . Again 2 cars ..blah..blah..blah..
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
Do you really think 2 cars will help u manage the EXIT better ??
You should try it (Offcourse live), but i am little skeptical of this at your stage.
I would rather suggest entring a secong car after the trade has moven in your direction already (few ticks). This will ensure you a certain cushion to work with and still give flexibility to manage it with two cars.
Scenario when entring two cars at ONCE does not help if you still have a poor PA read and cannot easily sit through reactions to higher momentum. There will be times whne the trade will instantly move against you and hit stops (on Bracket orders) as they tend to me hard stops and can very well fall victimi n a high volatility.
All being said.... sit in peace and answer this to ur self....
1. ARE YOU STILL FOCUSSING ON ENTRING AND EXITING BASED ON PRICE and NOT TREND ???
2. DO YOU LOOSE FOCUS ON THE TREND AFTER YOU ENTER A TRADE AND YOUR ENERGY SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ON MANAGING YOUR PnL IN GREEN?
GL
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
I'm certain of very little at this point. I do think 2 cars is worth trying. I think my entries are generally better than my exits so if i could scale out, psychologicaly i'm better off and likely profit wise i'm better off. I've reviewed past trades and although it's somewhat guessing as to where i would have definitely exited, it looks like conservatively i'm no worse off.
Your idea of entering 1 then look to add 1 after a few ticks is very interesting. I had really only thought of pyramiding after the trade was strongly in my favor. I'll give that some thought.
1. lately i've been confusing pullbacks with false breakouts. I'm not reading trend properly.
2. You're right. I realized earlier today after in a trade i notice i'm focusing too much on the right edge , smaller time frames rather than big picture. Too much focus on pnl ? Maybe. i'm not use to some of the pullbacks we're getting. Not normal for me to have a trade MFE + 5 then retrace back to even and then after exit move MFE +>5. That's a focus on price that is different than what i'm used to and i'm now trying to adjust to that and stay focused on dominant trend.
Thanks, buddy .
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Mostly watched chop till my eyes were sore. Missed the open run as i wasn't set up at my desk yet.
took 2 shorts that weren't bad entries. had good discipline in being patient and took some heat at the right time.
-1.50 pts on 1st trade x 2 cars
-.25 on second trade , 1 car
reviewing my set ups today to try to avoid the recent bad trades
i've taken
internet out again last 2 hours. vz coming back tomorrow
2 trades + 10.5 points total
Good entries but made some mistakes on exits that i think are easy to correct and not some kind of curve fitting idea.
First trade a gimme entry i immediately recognized. It was like the defenders moved away from the basket giving me an easy layup. Or like driving a car, JP. I took it. Trade management has been on my current daily goals list which includes be willing to sit through pullbacks. So i was long had a target which i later realized was too high (mistake 1) and then ignored the PA quick reversal (mistake 2). Price came back to my entry and support so i held and it slipped into the support area until i was stopped out. So MFE of 3.5 or 4 to -2.25. Probably another mistake in there. Third mistake was not enough attention to larger trend still being down. Should consider looking to take long profits sooner.
Second trade short. exit 1 car a bit above 1st hour LOD +4 . The other car had MFE +20 and i should have exited cause at some point i think you have to just take profits. Held through a long pullback and panicked on the exit near the high of the retrace for +11.
Good lessons and despite the mistakes good for the confidence.
No trading for me tomorrow . Will be at home but won't have access to internet most of the day.
I have not been trading well the past few days . I have reduced my position size back to 1 car for most of the trades.
Used to be i generally had good entries and poor trade management. Now i am just getting bad PA reads on entry and getting stopped out. I plan on reviewing my set ups and keeping better stats. Now i just keep stats on trades taken. I'll need to keep stats on all potential set ups.
Today i'm working on deciding what set ups to track, what data to record and then create an excel w/s.
i expect to not be posting as often until i get back on track.
Frustrated but not discouraged and still stupidly optimistic.
cheers .
Ive found trading the 30min range breakout has been working lately. so far this week its 5/6. Today i profited 3 points off the first one, which quickly reversed and hit my trailing stop, came back into the range, hit the bottom (which was also mondays close) and reversed for a 30 point move. I caught 16 points of it, i entered when it broke the top range again. My suggestion to you is use those breakouts and mark down all the closing prices for the week on your charts. Also the previous days high and low are also critical areas. I learned this from Linda Raschke. check out her site LBRgroup.com and go to the article section. There are alot of informative articles in there. Also i have started a journal you can check out and see how i trade.
Good luck,
T
Quote from Tradethoven:
Ive found trading the 30min range breakout has been working lately. so far this week its 5/6. Today i profited 3 points off the first one, which quickly reversed and hit my trailing stop, came back into the range, hit the bottom (which was also mondays close) and reversed for a 30 point move. I caught 16 points of it, i entered when it broke the top range again. My suggestion to you is use those breakouts and mark down all the closing prices for the week on your charts. Also the previous days high and low are also critical areas. I learned this from Linda Raschke. check out her site LBRgroup.com and go to the article section. There are alot of informative articles in there. Also i have started a journal you can check out and see how i trade.
Good luck,
T
Still here.
yesterday +4 pts, today -2.25
Plan on to keep pluggin' away until something clicks. Doesn't mean i'm approaching this passively. Still trying to understand PA and doing lots of review and reading.
One thing i'm trying to learn is using the 3 minute chart with a smaller time frame chart; either a volume chart or a 1 minute chart. I think the slightly larger time frame will give me a better read. We'll see.
Considering my long was exited around 2269 and NQ went to 2280 ish id say i haven't quite mastered this pursuit YET. The exit was based on price not making a new HH. Here's where looking at the 3 minute chart may have helped keep me in if i realized it was a normal pullback. Also i'll be noting that failure for trend to immediately continue does not mean reversal.
Here a chart for those that like that kind of thing.
just posting the previous trades again but on 1 minute w/ volume bars instead of the Volume chart. I don't know , someone may want to see it.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Hey Jp ,
I'll respond in the a.m.. Thanks for looking and your questions point out to me the obvious NOW
I'll soon see these things in real time; whch may result in variable stop placement or different entries.
Still working on my homework too.
Check ur PM
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
JP,
notes on chart.
trend identification is key. is that what we're trying to pound into my thick head ?
Re: Stops. I spent a fair amount of time thinking about fixed v. market structure stops. A blend is ideal which limits entry price and may result in missed entries. Based on market structure usually requires larger stops. I'll be keeping an eye on this whether to make a change. adaptation and self monitoring are key to continued success.
2 trades net + 4
first trade long -1.75. Not good enough R:R to have taken trade.Trend still up but chance of getting through HOD resistance after a 3 day rally and prior attempt failed should have kept me out. -1.75
short +5.75 little late on entry .MFE + 9.75 Gave this every chance to go lower and exited when it appeared odds had shifted. Pleased overall w/ trade management as i held through the 11:20 and 11:30 pullbacks
Watched the 1 minute chart a lot today for entries instead of Volume chart. I like it. Using 3 minute chart as well.
1 trade -1.25 pts
Couple notes on chart. Not much else to say about this one. I don't think it's a bad r:r trade. Basically selling near resistance. If anything my failure was to misjudge the support. Or perhaps just stay out of chop next time.
2 trades yesterday -4.50 pts
My concern at this point is that i become one of those traders who always thinks they're on the brink of finally getting it. My gut
tells me i'm on the right path but my PnL says otherwise.
Made some mnor adjustments this week. Spending more time watching 3 & 1 minute charts rather than volume charts. If i do look at volume it's mostly 500vol chart. I'm aware that many fail due to jumping from 1 indicator to the next w/o really taking the time to learn one method. Don't think changing charts counts as changing methods but it may take a little time to absorb.
Refined my set ups a little as well. One set up i had was a trend anticipation entry. My write up on it noted it was the most discretionary set up i had. I'm taking it out. My set ups are now the basic pullback in a trend, failed bo/ , a couple reversal patterns etc. I have rules i should follow and i think i can more easily hold my self accountable with these refinements.
Reviewing my initial stop placement also. May be going back to my old 3 point stop and then tighten if necessary. Might even go to a wider catastrophic stop and manage the trade as market dictates. I don't fully trust myself to do this and i still beleive my winnng trades rarely have more than 2 points MAE.
I'm ready to take a leap of faith in myself and trade with new confidence and the patience to wait for good trades.
1 trade +1.25. MFE 5.50
uneventfull. followed my plan. 1 minute chart attached
2 trades -1.50
3 minute chart attached which i'm using more frequently for set ups and then using 1 minute to time entry and exits.
First trade i sold at support which is one of my problems i'm working on. I was fooled by quick drop and thought momentum would carry it lower. I think i'm about ready to be done making this mistake. There's a time to anticipate and a time to wait. I either should have sold closer to resistance or waited for confirmation of support breaking.
2nd trade had MFE +6.50 but exited at + 1.25 Now i can come up with several reasons to have exited sooner but in real time i'm not getting it. Clearly my "let profits run" is not a complete exit strategy.
1st trade on the 1 minute chart
Last post for awhile. Until my trading improves i don't think posting my ongoing mistakes is helping anyone; myself included.
3 trades today -7.75 pts
I'll be back.
Drop this S/R, break out/down...mumbo jambo....
I see one Short - mega excellent short money maker...pounding at 7:35 AM and tne out and reverse long at 8:45 just a scalp- honering the big trend.
Don't chicken out coz you had a bad day.. keep posting ur loosers. You need this. trust me.
Check ur pm
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
OK JP for better or worse i'll keep posting
2 trades net +1
Only posting chart of 2nd trade. Wasn't thrilled with my entry short at support but looked like it fell hard from 2362 without a bounce and big pic trend still down
I don't trade off of Elliot Wave but i did see a nice ABC correction and really thought about selling at 2362. It's not in my plan so waited and sold bit later at 2359.25.
Marked up the chart with the EWT count i noticed.
1st trade had the right idea short but got stopped out. Probably a little impatient on the entry
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
OK JP for better or worse i'll keep posting
2 trades net +1
Only posting chart of 2nd trade. Wasn't thrilled with my entry short at support but looked like it fell hard from 2362 without a bounce and big pic trend still down
I don't trade off of Elliot Wave but i did see a nice ABC correction and really thought about selling at 2362. It's not in my plan so waited and sold bit later at 2359.25.
Marked up the chart with the EWT count i noticed.
1st trade had the right idea short but got stopped out. Probably a little impatient on the entry
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
Actual Prices (individual candles) are RANDOM do not focus on them.
Once the trend is established, get in, entry price doesn't matter - i KNOW THIS IS HARD TO SWALLOW BUT then...
and when you got it right (ur PnL will loudly suggest)...pound.
Get out either wen you see a big move in your favour, or price action ACTUALLY justustify trend reversal.
GL man...
Quote from Instynct:
Entry price does matter, especially to small retail traders. It determines how much risk you need to put up on that trade, and it can easily make the difference between a 5 pt potential profit and 10pts potential profit. And it could even make the difference between a profitable day or losing day. If the market is constantly oscillating, whether it be trending up or down, why would you want to enter short at the bottom of the oscillation or enter long at the top of the oscillation?
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
I can show you tons of charts where the price just bleed-ed slowly from 9:30 am till late in the day with little or no reactions. Also, I can show you similar charts on larger time frames and vice versa (longs).
2 trades - 5.25 points
Anticipate the breakout or wait for it then enter ? I'll do both depending on how i see PA develop. The thing that i'm realizing that is more important is trade management. If you buy anticipating a breakout as i did today and price stalls then the premise for the trade , a breakout , is no longer valid. Maybe it's just pausing before it tries again ? Not likely. Exit with minimal loss or BE and then enter if price actually does breakout.
2nd trade same kind of thing. i need to stop looking at my stop as 'there's still hope' and exit when PA turns. I think this is one of the biggest challenges in trading; staying objective while in the trade.
Missed a nice long entry in the a.m. 'cause i couldn't put a name on the set up. It's how i think and if i don't know the set up it feels like i'm guessing and shouldnt trade it. Nevermind the intuition side of trading for now the thing is it was a a 123 low set up. Holy shit am i becoming senile ? How'd i miss that ?
3 trades + 4.50 All in about the first hour . Lost some focus in the afternoon and kind of needed to just book a day of profits so i wasn't looking too hard for another trade. Nice action though.
I could have let my one winner run more but lately i've seen so many trades at 5+ that turn into BE that i was eager to lock in the +7.25 i had.
First trade i missed by a few seconds booking a couple points that got closed for -.50. Notes on chart
My plan today was to trade without hesitation and i did a good job of that.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
3 trades + 4.50 All in about the first hour . Lost some focus in the afternoon and kind of needed to just book a day of profits so i wasn't looking too hard for another trade. Nice action though.
I could have let my one winner run more but lately i've seen so many trades at 5+ that turn into BE that i was eager to lock in the +7.25 i had.
First trade i missed by a few seconds booking a couple points that got closed for -.50. Notes on chart
My plan today was to trade without hesitation and i did a good job of that.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
market.
Have considered using limit orders for entries. Usually the qtr or half i might save is not worth possibly missing the trade. On exits unless i have a target i just want out.
Please don't tell me i should be using limit orders. My little brain can only handle so much
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
market.
Have considered using limit orders for entries. Usually the qtr or half i might save is not worth possibly missing the trade. On exits unless i have a target i just want out.
Please don't tell me i should be using limit orders. My little brain can only handle so much
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
1 Trade -1 pt
My usual get to office late on thurs + had some distractions so missed alot.
just the 1 trade short late in the day.
Back tomorrow rested and ready.
This trade (chart posted) is the set up i want to take more of and have had trouble pulling the trigger on before.
Unfortunately works better when the market isn't range bound like today but i like the R:R. Had MFE +4.5 closed for +1.00
Target at the 41 area may have been smart.
first trade today -2.25
-1.25 on day. Unless something happens soon i may call it a day early. If i'm going to watch paint dry then i'd rather do it at home where i actually do have a room to paint today.
Didn't have the focus today that i would have liked which happens more often on Mondays. I was aware of it and didn't force or chase any trades even after missing some nice entries.
Pleased about that.
1 trade + 5.25 pts MFE +9 MAE - .50
One of my big beliefs has been that trading can be learned through lots of non passive screen time. Watching price react to S/R and different set ups and trying to make sense of it and see it in real time is the key, IMO. So far i still believe that and feel i'm slowly making progress in seeing and getting the entries i want to be taking.
Another belief i've come upon recently is regarding why do traders fail. From my own experience i think it has to do with trade management and very specifically staying objective while in the trade. As a discretionary trader i can be pretty good about stalking my set ups with patience and objectivity. Once in the trade i tend to tense up, much less than before, and focus too much on the very last price. I may also hold winners too long hoping for more despite signs to the contrary. Being able to act on what i see while in the trade, see the bigger picture and recognize the market clues is the objectivity that is crucial to my success. I think recognizing this is a step towards doing it. Time will tell.
Missed the trade i thought about taking and should have taken then went on tilt. Was concerned about shorting a strong open so didn't take the trade. Missing trades has probably led to more bad trades than anything i'd guess.
3 trades - 7.00 pts
shutting down platform to avoid any revenge trading. Will go get some excercise and be back at it tomorrow.
-7 pisses me off but the reality is i can make that back on 1 decent trade so i'll keep it in perspective as best as possible.
I'll also add that the first trade i took was really a stupid trade. Had another chance to short and i went long instead. Must have left my brain at home today.
2 trades +6.50 pts ( -3.00 + 9.50)
Pretty much sat on hands after that then went out to lunch.
Next step for me is power of NOW and to keep trading after booking , for me , a decent daily point total.
Felt a little confused in the morning then i remembered i'm not trying to predict every move, just waiting for me set ups. And they came.
Charts available on request 1 minute, 3 minute and 500 volume
No trades today.
2 trades; - 3.75 pts
Made a mistake in stop placement which is really inexcusable at this point. I figured i would exit before stop was hit anyway so didn't bother to move to where market structure dictated. Price jumped and stopped me out before i closed. Proper stop placement would have allowed a profitable trade or a smaller loss if i did decide to exit. oh well. Lesson learned.
The 'easy' money was on the long side but i was very hesitant given weak ES YM and adv/dec numbers. NQ just kept grinding up in a perfect breakout pullback manner. I recognized trades but had the 'too high' mentality so just waited.
Besides the stop placement error there was a failure to re enter after the stop that i should have taken.
For the most part i still feel i'm making progress in the right direction. Keeping notes on what i should be focusing on and getting better at being objective.
Now it's time to start making some $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ !!
2 short trades -2.75 points
Good entry on first , fair entry on second. Good trade management today.
If i did anything wrong today it was failure to take another short set up. And i suppose not recognizing the bull trend earlier in the day.
The progress is subtle; not chasing, seeing better entries ( but not quite trusting myself to take them) and better focus in the trades.
It's a fine line between pushing myself to the next level and being impatient in trade selection.
3 Trades -.75, -1.00, +4.75 net +3.00 points
too much of a short bias perhaps. no doubt influenced by the negative adv/dec numbers.
no real mistakes overall. continuing to focus on quick entry when signal occurs and trying to stay calm and objective in my trade management. passed on a couple entries due to indecision but didn't chase when price moved in the expected direction so i see that as a positive.
As long as i can keep my head above water and pick up a few points a day then i feel it's just a matter of time until the bigger days start to roll in.
Loose the adv/dec numbers....its after the afct news... no real actionable info...
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Where do i start ? +5.25 points today.
The positives: traded my first 2 trades quite well. not perfect but well. On past large down, volatile days i likely would have lost money. After recognizing my first trade was wrong i exited and reversed within 15 seconds. I showed good patience MOST of the day in not chasing.
Negatives: Patience ran out near end of day and i sold a low.
-3.00 points bringing my +8.25 total down. I should have been more aggressive in selling the early trend breakouts given the bias today. My don't chase attitude instilled in me kept my out too much. Lost some focus in the afternoon- need to take better breaks during chop and review set ups. I was being too cautious in trade selection after being up +8.25 which then led to impatience.
Looks like a alot of mental issues. Recognize the problem then solve it. Feeling better now. About threw my mouse through the wall after I chased that last trade for a loss.
chart of first 2 trades . very pleased with both entries.
We've all heard that trading is mostly mental and i've frequently thought bullshit. Give me a setup and the mental part will be easy. Finding the set ups is the hard part. Today i think i get it.
It's more mental than i realized. My 'set ups' are price patterns and my ability to read the market. When i'm focused and patient that's the edge that lets me find and manage good trades. The mental part is realizing when i'm tired, unfocused or impatient. Trying too hard to find trades is mental, getting discouraged after a bad trade, and by bad i mean forced, is a mental issue. Getting discouraged because i miss a trade is mental. These are some of the issues i had today.
I felt rested today but the focus wasn't quite there. i think it might have been the breakfast of donuts. I'm done doing that.
First trade was a bad read. Trying too hard.
Then second trade i forced and entered when my basic rules, experience and setups dictate not to. It was a 'hope' trade. Maybe a revenge trade.
Third trade i closed too soon that would have made up for the first two losses.
Mentally beat i didn't have the heart to try any more of the afternoon sell setups.
I don't believe in static setups but in setups within market context. Until i'm proven wrong on that belief i will be working on calm focus and patience. I'll still continue to refine and increase my market reading skills but having the proper mental state gets more attention now.
-7.75 today.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
We've all heard that trading is mostly mental and i've frequently thought bullshit. Give me a setup and the mental part will be easy. Finding the set ups is the hard part. Today i think i get it.
It's more mental than i realized. My 'set ups' are price patterns and my ability to read the market. When i'm focused and patient that's the edge that lets me find and manage good trades. The mental part is realizing when i'm tired, unfocused or impatient. Trying too hard to find trades is mental, getting discouraged after a bad trade, and by bad i mean forced, is a mental issue. Getting discouraged because i miss a trade is mental. These are some of the issues i had today.
I felt rested today but the focus wasn't quite there. i think it might have been the breakfast of donuts. I'm done doing that.
First trade was a bad read. Trying too hard.
Then second trade i forced and entered when my basic rules, experience and setups dictate not to. It was a 'hope' trade. Maybe a revenge trade.
Third trade i closed too soon that would have made up for the first two losses.
Mentally beat i didn't have the heart to try any more of the afternoon sell setups.
I don't believe in static setups but in setups within market context. Until i'm proven wrong on that belief i will be working on calm focus and patience. I'll still continue to refine and increase my market reading skills but having the proper mental state gets more attention now.
-7.75 today.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
Its alwasy that you are wrong and after knowing you are wrong - only recourse is to correct your self.
GL
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Correct yourself ? You mean stop and reverse or correct YOURSELF- attitude.
thanks, JP
i WILL get this trading game
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
2 trades 9 points. + 4.25 & + 4.75
Good entry on first trade, no hesitation.
Did a good job of avoiding chop although there were some missed opportunities.
second trade . using initial 3 point stop now kept me 1 tick from being stopped out. My 2.25 stop i had been using would have taken me out. This is the way to go start w/ 3 and tighten if price structure allows. I'm also watching price and seeing where stop would be if i entered to help find good entries when i can. But mostly still if price action dictates an entry i just focus on pulling the trigger.
+6.50 pts for week. I'll take it.
yesterday -5.75. today +3.00
I think yesterday i figured out my edge. Focus. I was tired yesterday and didn't feel focused. The entries weren't bad but they just didn't work. I was kind of going through the motion of identify set ups but not having the feel for it.
Today should have been much better. I got nervous on the last short and bailed out. That would have been THE Winner of the day. Easily +10 maybe + 20. For the most part today I traded relaxed and enjoyed the process.
The psychology of trading is knowing how you react in certain situations then being aware to try to react properly next time. Getting there s l o w l y.
I've decided this will be the month where my trading takes off !
I see improvements but watch out for that greed
Thank you. I will.
Mostly try to focus on my mini goals. Enter without hesitation, verbalize PA action out loud (i've found it helps me), and stay calm and manage trade based on PA (failed a bit on that today)
Thanks.
if you have a big losing day because you messed up, don't expect it to win it back in 1 day. If you messed up understand it will take multiple days or weeks to get it back
***STEEL CA.........******
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
***STEEL CA.........******
Quote from traderslair:
if you have a big losing day because you messed up, don't expect it to win it back in 1 day. If you messed up understand it will take multiple days or weeks to get it back
6 trades -3.00 points
More lack of experience i hope than mistakes.
Usual too early exit on first short. Got shaken out on the pullback. +3.75 that could have been good for another 10.
2nd trade didn't get the fill i expected so moved stop and ended up exiting -3.75. The good action on my part was the entry was still valid so i re-entered within 30 seconds. That trade ran + 9.75 MFE but my let profit run strategy i didn't do before took hold and i ended up watching it pullback until i exited +2.50 It was the correct exit at that point as price never came back.
Other trades just didn't work- no big deal on those.
Missed about an hour of good price action to take care of some unexpected personal business. Had to cancel a new floor/carpet install after talking with the wife. She found some shady things about the contractor on the internet
ANd my dog all of sudden has really bad arthritis and can barely walk. x-ray showed no tumors though so that's good. Just started once a day meds but doesn't seem frequent enough. will consult with vet thurs of friday
OK done venting. Didn't mean to bring all the personal stuff in but i guess it's really on my mind.
i hope u are sim trading
you need to follow your plan 100%
not 99,9% BUT 100%
No . real $$$'s
If you have any recommendation on exits i'd gladly take them.
I've considered multiple contracts to scale out. Break of S/R on retrace indicating change of trend- gives back alot of profit. Targets . Mostly rely on my 'skill' to find exit points. Yep, it's not working.
I've considered fixed profit targets as well as trailing stop of , say half (? ) of open profits.
My most preferred choice is develop constistency then add another car so i can scale out.
Thanks
Been waiting and expecting for about a year a drop like today. dow -500
Didn't trade. Dog back to vet. Will be at home with dog tomorrow too. Oh well. the market will be there next week. not so sure about our dog.
Just a personal update.
Not really sure what to post. Does my personal life really matter on an anonymous trading journal ?
Spent more days at the vet this month than trading. The previously mentioned dog was put to sleep aug. 5. Twelve year old shepard/husky mix all of a sudden lost use of all limbs. Mentally was still smart and alert. Tried some treatment that failed and have some regret i didn't explore other options. The loss devasted my wife and i more than we expected.
Next went to Lake tahoe area for 3 nights . missed some wild market action but wasn't in the proper mindset to trade it anyway.
Wife and i decided to take last week off to rest, hike and have some nice dinners out. Our other dog then proceeded to tear a ligament in the knee. Guess it's common in big dogs. That required surgery and a night in the hospital. She needs assistance walking right now and we're spending alot of time watching over her. Can't wait for this month to be over.
As for trading i'm in the process of switching brokers; over to Mirus. Redoing my home office and bought a new computer. Once i get caught up again at work i expect to trade from home a bit more. It's been a couple weeks since my last trade. I expect to start up again next week.
Guess that's enough for now.
Sorry to hear you've so much going on.
I have a 100# dog also.... Huge hound of some kind. They surely do become a part of life.
HOpe things become more regular for you...
Thanks Hooti. Appreciate your well wishes.
I'm easing back into trading this week and expect to be back into my regular routine next week.
OK i'm back. Expecting good things this month after a lousy August.
6 trades today . zero points. Overall good trade management except for my last long which I got nervous on and bailed right away. That would have been the one good trade i needed today to net around 5 points.
I think i mentioned i switched to Mirus brokerage for lower commisions. Psychologically paying lower comm is a big help to me. If a trade was only slightly profitable in the past i may have held to try to cover more comm but now i think i can be more objective and just trade what i see without worrying about comm.
Also noticed execution of orders appears faster. Advertisement over.
My current objective or mindset is to not try to catch 10- 20 point moves. I've always had a bit of swing for the fences mentality. I'm tired of giving up too much in open profits Now i'm just trying to get 5+ points whenever possible, keep my losses small and try to improve my win percentage. Yep, easy stuff, right ?
No charts today- nothing really worth posting.
I have a problem with big gap days. Just don't trade them well. The bias was up and i mostly waited for a reversal pattern to get short. Not a great strategy.
I took a long late in the day that stalled. (chart attached) Ideal way to have traded it would have been to either use a wider stop or exit at B/E. Given i was buying near HOD with djia +200 i didn't want to widen stop. Instead i sat and took my normal stop instead of a quick exit. Not the way i want to be playing it. Lost focus after that and went and had lunch.
My attitude now with trades still near my entry point is to exit as soon as it looks like it's not working. This is a bit different from before when i'd give them more room. I expect if this works for me I'll have more trades but overall a lower average loss.
2 trades -2.00 pts
+ 5.50 pts : +4.75 -.50 + 1.25
Got too cautious after first trade and didn't take a good setup.
Made up for it after exiting 2nd trade with a re entry 3 minutes later.
Lots of missed opportunities but overall pleased with my focus and results.
Brilliance and stupidity. Some great entries and terrible exits.
This has been my problem for awhile. Today all mental mindgames; being influenced by prior trade, trying to stay profitable on day and not taking heat plus the volitilty threw me off a bit. Staying objective in the trade is what it comes down to. I've improved in this area but not enough.
5 trades today + 5.75 points. 3 wins 2 losses.
For the half dozen people looking at my charts i'll post a couple.
1 more chart. I think there's something to be learned from my mistakes and the few things i do correctly.
i am a perfect Fog horn...
Whn Cables are at a higher angles u can stay in the trade longer... thats all...
so easy ... JK....
U r doing good... its a solo journey anyways...
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
i am a perfect Fog horn...
Whn Cables are at a higher angles u can stay in the trade longer... thats all...
so easy ... JK....
U r doing good... its a solo journey anyways...
Tired and distracted with other work. A couple ok trades but bottom line should not have been trading today.
-6.75 pt on 5 trades then stopped trading midday. Too bad. There were some great opportunities but i just didn't have the focus.
My edge is my focus. Tomorrow i'll bring it.
And i think i must be getting old. Did some painting around the house over the weekend . Up and down the stairs. Up and down. Son of a bitch I'm exhausted.
Hey Jas,
Hope all is well. Have you considered trading the 5min chart instead of the 1min? Price action probably doesn't have much meaning on the 1min. I trade the STOXX (index is around 2000) and while I initially thought of taking bigger slices I focus now on 5 pts off the 5min. Later I plan to incorporate a 1/2 off, other 1/2 BE stop and running the rest.
I think being patient and trying to get the very best screaming oppties makes a difference. I notice on a couple of your charts, you seem to be trading just to make a trade and placing too much emphasis on a couple of bars when the overall trend was against you. Draw a couple of trendlines. They help me. Have patience and try to get in on the first pullback. But be careful that the pullback has stopped pulling back first.
Good luck!
Sophocles
P.S. you can never be too old to trade. too tired yes, but never too old!
Quote from Snowman75:
Hey Jas,
Hope all is well. Have you considered trading the 5min chart instead of the 1min? Price action probably doesn't have much meaning on the 1min. I trade the STOXX (index is around 2000) and while I initially thought of taking bigger slices I focus now on 5 pts off the 5min. Later I plan to incorporate a 1/2 off, other 1/2 BE stop and running the rest.
I think being patient and trying to get the very best screaming oppties makes a difference. I notice on a couple of your charts, you seem to be trading just to make a trade and placing too much emphasis on a couple of bars when the overall trend was against you. Draw a couple of trendlines. They help me. Have patience and try to get in on the first pullback. But be careful that the pullback has stopped pulling back first.
Good luck!
Sophocles
P.S. you can never be too old to trade. too tired yes, but never too old!
-5.75 pts.
I'll just say that despite the negative numbers it wasn't as bad as it appears. At least i'm mostly trading in the right direction, early a few times today, and i'm not hesitating to re-enter a trade after the first time didn't work.
Had MFE of +8.5 on one trade but exited at + 3.25. I see that as the potential is there but i'm just not quite getting it. I should be though.
I did stop trading mid day to do some other work so missed some action.
no trades today. didn't have time for the markets
Winner !
1 Trade + .75 pts .yep that's right, 3/4 a point.
I'm rich, i'm rich, i'm a wealthy miser.
Good entries but volatility ie fast reversals is not working in my favor today. OpEx today.
first trade MFE +3.75 that reversed quickly. I should have acted and exit with something. Instead -1.75
Next trade BE
Did i mention our other dog had knee surgery ? Back to vet today for 1 month xray / check up. I'll miss a couple hours of mkt. May trade after lunch.
Jas,
You really should not have finished the day in a loss. On the first trade, where were you looking to exit? You should have never got out at a loss. Why didn't you either a) take 1/2 off and put the rest at BE, or b) take your profit!!! You already had twice as much profit as you risked so definitely worth getting out I think. Also since the market was in a downtrend I would have taken profit before the previous swing high which ultimately turned out to be resistance.
2nd trade: Although HH, I like it but you should have taken the HH into account and took the quick profit.
Good luck this week!!!
S.
Quote from Snowman75:
Jas,
You really should not have finished the day in a loss. On the first trade, where were you looking to exit? You should have never got out at a loss. Why didn't you either a) take 1/2 off and put the rest at BE, or b) take your profit!!! You already had twice as much profit as you risked so definitely worth getting out I think. Also since the market was in a downtrend I would have taken profit before the previous swing high which ultimately turned out to be resistance.
2nd trade: Although HH, I like it but you should have taken the HH into account and took the quick profit.
Good luck this week!!!
S.
5 trades. -.50 pt
Still making notes for myself and trying to learn what i'm doing.
If anything I know this: I will not blow up. It's just a matter of time before i start booking consistent profits.
In the past i haven't cared much for daily/weekly profit goals but prefer 'process' type goals. Take set ups, don't hesitate etc. I've been rethinking that and now have added as a goal that of booking a minimum of 5 points a day. Perhaps it will get me taking profits when i should. It's a measurable goal and specific and will keep me focused on the main objective- make $$$$ !
If i book between 5 - 7 points i'll stop for the day. If more than 7 then i'll continue until i have a loss. Still playing around with the details. For example if i make 10 pts on my first trade but lose half on my next, i'll still trade.
a few trades attached. probably more comfortable in my trading than i've ever been. I'm generally liking my entries and getting better at trade management. There's a few set ups i'm missing getting in on - pullbacks in a trend- so working on that.
actually that long 2nd trade shown probably wasn't the best idea going into resistance.
Hi "jas_in_hbca",
my advice:
be much more conservative in your trading setups.
Only trade the BEST of the BEST, this should be your standard.
If there is no super perfect setup, do NOT trade, take a walk for the day - the next setup will come soon.
Stop scalping, look on longer timeframes and more products.
And risk much more on that super perfect BEST of the BEST conservative Setups, then you will win & and dont need to make so many little trade a day for that much stress and litle profit.
Control your risk, once you are in the trade, and allow the trade to reach their full move potential.
good luck
Hi,
i see 2 possible good trades here, i would have taken, if i would trade on 1 min charts.
see pic.
greetings
Quote from HATEtheRisk:
Hi "jas_in_hbca",
my advice:
be much more conservative in your trading setups.
Only trade the BEST of the BEST, this should be your standard.
If there is no super perfect setup, do NOT trade, take a walk for the day - the next setup will come soon.
Stop scalping, look on longer timeframes and more products.
And risk much more on that super perfect BEST of the BEST conservative Setups, then you will win & and dont need to make so many little trade a day for that much stress and litle profit.
Control your risk, once you are in the trade, and allow the trade to reach their full move potential.
good luck
Quote from HATEtheRisk:
Hi,
i see 2 possible good trades here, i would have taken, if i would trade on 1 min charts.
see pic.
greetings
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Awesome ! Thanks very much. I appreciate your time and advice !
Is there some entry trigger on that first trade or just context of price action and location of S/R ? If the latter then i see it.
I like the tip on triple tops/bottoms should hold.
Thanks again.
by the way, dont bet easily on triple bottoms/tops, they will fuck you..... its just another indicator for your analysis....
otherwhise it would be to easy. And as you know, NOTHING is easy in trading.
Cool.
Thanks again.
Holy smokes. Crappy trading in missing entries.
I've trained myself pretty well not to chase moves. I realized today that when i'm seeing a quick, big "thrust' bar then i wait to see if it retraces. I hesitate thinking don't chase this one bar. But context is important and i should have been entering these trades which would have resulted in little to no heat and nice gains.
After 5 trades i was -5.50 pts with zero wins. I realized my hesitation was costing me so in the final 20 minutes i jumped on a short entry pullback. Still not the best execution but good enough for 6.50 to finish + 1.00 on the day.
What a relief.
attached trade summary today
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Holy smokes. Crappy trading in missing entries.
I've trained myself pretty well not to chase moves. I realized today that when i'm seeing a quick, big "thrust' bar then i wait to see if it retraces. I hesitate thinking don't chase this one bar. But context is important and i should have been entering these trades which would have resulted in little to no heat and nice gains.
After 5 trades i was -5.50 pts with zero wins. I realized my hesitation was costing me so in the final 20 minutes i jumped on a short entry pullback. Still not the best execution but good enough for 6.50 to finish + 1.00 on the day.
What a relief.
attached trade summary today
Do you really think the rich pro traders make money every day ???
They do not, maybe they try.
But in reality its not so easy.
70% of all possible trades are missed by the trader, because he cant always watch the markets all the time, also some signals are not too clear on the start price move point, and also traders can not trade every possible trade.
They just focus on their goal for the day or the week or the month.
And choose the best trades and dont do anything else.
If you want to make money, you must change your trading style.
Do more historically statistical work, much more. This will never end, its a part of trading, dosnt matter if you are successfull or not.
Statistics are the only thing in trading you can count on, they are the only thing that shows you the real odds/probabilites in the different market situations.
You must learn to read the charts like a book.
Choose your BEST setups and risk MORE on this trades.
Then you will WIN. I guarantee it.....
So start working out you strategies.....
its not coming from real trading, success comes from historical research, that is the basis for your decisions.....
Dont be lazy.....you can be lazy, when you ve made a lot of money..........
sincerely
hatetherisk
Thanks HtR. Agree some of my set ups are not the Best. I'm seeing that now. Continuing to watch , study and learn to read the markets. Slow progress but i think i'm moving in the right direction.
Thanks !
3 trades + 2.50 pts. (2 BE trades)
Huge volatility after fed statement. Had a slight moment of panic and had to double check to make sure i was flat.
Went out to lunch and missed the final 1 1/2 hours. Nice drop. I hate missing that kind of action.
That's about it. Will do some more review.
Appears i'm trading scared. Doesn't feel like it but looking at the results that's what it looks like.
I'm exiting slightly profitable trades at the first hesitation in price. Getting out for 1 pt or less gain then missing 5 , 6 or more points. Mental thing i'll work on by staying calm and focus on price S/R
Once again trading tired today with predictable results. I knew there was lots of opportunity today so that added a little pressure to do well. Stupid mindset.
7 trades -6.75 pts
Beating myself up for mistakes doesn't work for me or motivate me. ( Learning from my mistakes i always try to do.) So not going to dwell on todays performance. At the same time i can't become complacent and continue to accept my poor performance.
Possible Entry >
Gather Conviction >
FORM HYPOTHESIS (describes only exit criteria) >
ENTER trade >
Stay in Until HYPOTHESIS is valid on Chart.
P.S. above material is copyrighted ;)
Gudluck,
Guru
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Yep it really is that simple. Not easy but simple.
Thanks JP
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Appears i'm trading scared. Doesn't feel like it but looking at the results that's what it looks like.
7 trades -6.75 pts
I feel for you... I am where you are less often than before.. A couple of times I would trade crap, kill my account.. THEN the juicy setups come and I thinking... WHAT is WRONG with me???
Unfortunately only PAIN teaches here and it takes different levels of pain for different people. You are in potentially the best business in existence, you have "figured" it out... BUT!!!??
Problem is when your impatience leads you to see poor setups as good setups... You know to do THIS but you keep doing THAT because your mind constantly clouds what is this and what is that.
Remember, the good setups STAND OUT...
To not make points in this volatility is excruciating.. Hang in there..
__________________
Trade Less
Can't argue with what your saying. Guess i'm a slower learner but starting to be able to tell good set ups from poor set ups.
thanks for calling it like you see it
and thanks for this
"i thought u have very good setups, while reading ur posts.
WHY do u dont trade them"
it helps.
Enjoy the weekend !
Quote from HATEtheRisk:
oh oh, my dear jasinhbca,
didnt learn what i ve told you.
you are saying, u having lots of oppurtunities,
BUT, wtf do you do then.
it seems u have no discipline to wait for your best setups.
do u have any profitable setups anyway ?
if yes, then only trade them.
u just want to trade dosnt matter if u make money or loose it, huh ?
better get an xbox for u need of pulling the trigger....
i could tell u this a thousand more times, maybe once you get it.
ONLY TRADE THE BEST SETUPS
and
KEEP URSELF AWAY from the other bullshit.....
i thought u have very good setups, while reading ur posts.
WHY do u dont trade them.
for what do you have a plan if u dont use it.
if u dont learn to be disciplined sweety u are just a gambler and ur finally destiny is getting broke...
think about it,
whish u the best
cheers
Thanks Rashid. Every bit of encouragement helps at his point. appreciate your thoughts and advice. You've descibed the learning process well.
Seems the good set ups do stand out but they can also be the scary ones to trade. I'm learning to deal with it.
Cheers !
Quote from Rashid_G.:
I feel for you... I am where you are less often than before.. A couple of times I would trade crap, kill my account.. THEN the juicy setups come and I thinking... WHAT is WRONG with me???
Unfortunately only PAIN teaches here and it takes different levels of pain for different people. You are in potentially the best business in existence, you have "figured" it out... BUT!!!??
Problem is when your impatience leads you to see poor setups as good setups... You know to do THIS but you keep doing THAT because your mind constantly clouds what is this and what is that.
Remember, the good setups STAND OUT...
To not make points in this volatility is excruciating.. Hang in there..
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Can't argue with what your saying. Guess i'm a slower learner but starting to be able to tell good set ups from poor set ups.
"i thought u have very good setups, while reading ur posts.
WHY do u dont trade them"
+3.5 pts today on 5 trades
here's a chart w/ first 3 trades
i think they're good set ups. great ? not sure.
I have a small stack of charts with examples of set ups that i print up as i see them repeat from day to day. I need to review them more often. I review before the trading day but i think i should study before bed as well.
i'm also developing traders paranoia and not sure if i will keep posting my set ups. Which of course is really hilarious 'cause who cares about a barely break even traders charts.
We'll see. i like the feedback on the trades and i did hope to provide some insights to traders in my same position. not sure if i'm doing that and actually doesn't look like too many people are viewing them so probably doesn't matter either way.
have a great weekend traders !
Everything i held to let run came back for a small gain or loss. Everything i should have held i exited too soon.
I've been working on my entries and that paid off today now i need to really focus on exits. Lack of plan ? Bad price read ? Mental issue ? Probably a bit of each. This has been my problem for awhile. Watching higher time frame more could help.
Other mistake was quitting early. Didn't trade last hour. Didn't want to chase after my early short exit but there were some good setups i could have taken.
3 minute chart. 1st trade not shown
oh yesterday was a tilt day -10. i'm not even going there.
here's the trade PnL for the day. 62 % profitable . A dream day for me. And yet...after commish BE.
Today's PA was really a text book day for entry set ups.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
here's the trade PnL for the day. 62 % profitable . A dream day for me. And yet...after commish BE.
Today's PA was really a text book day for entry set ups.
Price needs time to move..__________________
Trade Less
I knew the holy grail had to do with numerology. So MORE than 3 minutes . Got it !
Yep, look scared. I need to relax. I've got the opposite of confirmation bias. i see everything as a sign the trade is not working.
thanks
I have come across some great traders that walk away once they place trades... Not being cowardly, just accepting personal faults. After all, how is your presence likely to help the trade (PROPER stop in place)? If the answer is not CLEARLY yes, then walk away for a bit.. these have been my better trades.
At some point it is better to stop driving past the liquor store everyday... change routes...
__________________
Trade Less
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
I knew the holy grail had to do with numerology. So MORE than 3 minutes . Got it !
Yep, look scared. I need to relax. I've got the opposite of confirmation bias. i see everything as a sign the trade is not working.
thanks
thanks guys.
BTW, is there some kind of law of trading that says the closer i think i am to "getting it" the more likely i'll get slapped back to beginners level.
Getting chopped up today. sheesh.
50k in a day ? Nice ! I need to dream a lot bigger.
I got skinned today as well... THE unemotional way to have read today would have been (premise being uptrend requires new highs):
1. Daily High from yesterday not even approached before failure..
2. Morning drive up did not hold overnight high..
On this basis any intraday failure (2264 from opening area) should have been at least tried short.. I did at 2259 but had been beaten up in the early chop I didn't let it run.. I will be watching 2220 area for confirmation of new downtrend or 2285 for continuation up. So far we have an inside day (I include overnight trading)..
IF one can derive plan from Daily and Hourly chart you should TRY to trade in that direction only.. otherwise we get jerked around endlessly..
__________________
Trade Less
Cluttering your thread BUT...
In your given time-frame there MUST be a logical reason to be able to trade AGAINST successive bars heading (shorting 54's or 63's today) into a level that LIKELY will hold due to a HIGHER current. The lower the time-frame the more lies price tells and therefore the more I lose when I am blind to the bigger picture.
__________________
Trade Less
thanks rashid. feel free to post here anytime.
I was entering too late today. mostly had direction right just wasn't getting the follow through. A couple nice profits held too long.
Once again left for lunch and missed last hr drop.
Interestingly when i was getting chopped up i thought i was trading badly. Looking back now most of the trades weren't as bad entries as i thought.
The 2246 support area held longer than i thought it would. I should have realized that sooner and stop looking to short near it.
Think i may have been trying too hard today. Need to go with what the market is offering.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
thanks guys.
BTW, is there some kind of law of trading that says the closer i think i am to "getting it" the more likely i'll get slapped back to beginners level.
Getting chopped up today. sheesh.
50k in a day ? Nice ! I need to dream a lot bigger.
Quote from Rashid_G.:
Cluttering your thread BUT...
The lower the time-frame the more lies price tells and therefore the more I lose when I am blind to the bigger picture.
No band practice last night so was able to get to bed early. Also traded from home today so it was a nice way to start.
On a positive note i had best green day in awhile. A few months ago days like today i would probably have been chasing a lot and lost.
I've reached that Pogo moment .. "i've found the enemy and it is I " or something like that.
I can't hold winners. I should have had easily another 30 points just by holding a couple trades i was already in.
Steel cables, power of now, i'm not doing it. My 5th & 6th trade were losses so the next trade i'm pretty sure i exited just to make back the two losses plus a bit more.
1st trade probably thinking of early in the week losses.
Happy to be plus 13.75 for the day but i really need to focus on exiting my winners based on something more than 'that's enough , i'll take it".
and i am looking at higher time frame. the problem is not so much analysis as discipline. I think.
Anyway i like most of my entries , a couple were forced, so i feel progress there. now to get the other side of the trade
PnL attached. charts available on request
Nice! I notice you were smart enough to quit while you were ahead. Were you comfortable today? This is HUGE and is the reason that even when I have a good day but was under stress I still doubt my future in trading. Being positive with big dreams is great BUT if from day to day there is heavy stress in trading, either A. long term you will lose money, OR B. the stress will kill you...
Great day..
__________________
Trade Less
Quote from Rashid_G.:
Nice! I notice you were smart enough to quit while you were ahead. Were you comfortable today? This is HUGE and is the reason that even when I have a good day but was under stress I still doubt my future in trading. Being positive with big dreams is great BUT if from day to day there is heavy stress in trading, either A. long term you will lose money, OR B. the stress will kill you...
Great day..
4 trades , +2.00 pts. all in about the first 2 hours
hard time getting a read on the mrkt today. felt choppy and a little more volatile.
The LOD afternoon b/o kept failing and gave me a bit of decision fatigue. sat out last half hour. now i see a couple clues that will make the read easier next time, i think.
Possibly should have been a little more aggressive mid day. i think there were entries i just wasn't reading quite right. I think i also have a tendency when i see chop to sit on my hands too much and take a few extra breaks. Good to realize that as next time i can be aware of my focus slipping and remember that chop doesn't last forever. There can still be good opportunities.
looking forward to a volatile and profitable october.
Today proves that one can be profitable w/ a low win %. Well almost profitable.
After 7 losing trades - 8.50 pts. Last trade + 9.00. after commish down a bit. Not my preferred way to trade but i like my ability to pull the trigger. My willingness to take a bullet is still a problem.
One trade in particular i had a very good entry then bailed when it wasn't working after a few minutes. The trade was still valid so i should have stayed in and it would have been an easy big winner.
I think in order to get to the next level i need to trust my ability more, that is, gain more confidence through more experience. I also need to continue to be aware of my mistakes- currently exiting too soon- and make more of an effort to overcome them.
In this case maybe a timer would be helpful.
hey,
Thats a good realization, conviction in your decisions.
Rest is all about risk a management. Remember that you need to capitalize on your winners by adding to them as they validate themself. Dont be afraid to add a few cars after your trade moves nicely in your direction. Managing risk via size is the ultimate trick in making real money.
Guru
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Today proves that one can be profitable w/ a low win %. Well almost profitable.
After 7 losing trades - 8.50 pts. Last trade + 9.00. after commish down a bit. Not my preferred way to trade but i like my ability to pull the trigger. My willingness to take a bullet is still a problem.
One trade in particular i had a very good entry then bailed when it wasn't working after a few minutes. The trade was still valid so i should have stayed in and it would have been an easy big winner.
I think in order to get to the next level i need to trust my ability more, that is, gain more confidence through more experience. I also need to continue to be aware of my mistakes- currently exiting too soon- and make more of an effort to overcome them.
In this case maybe a timer would be helpful.
Quote from jokepie:
hey,
Thats a good realization, conviction in your decisions.
Rest is all about risk a management. Remember that you need to capitalize on your winners by adding to them as they validate themself. Dont be afraid to add a few cars after your trade moves nicely in your direction. Managing risk via size is the ultimate trick in making real money.
Guru
Quote from jack411:
been reading the journal the whole time man. Looks like you are continuing to improve, especially psychologically. The fact that you're recognizing what you need to work on is a very good sign. Keep going at it. Lets see the charts too!
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Thanks Jack ! Really appreciate the encouragement.
morning chopped me up. nothing to see there.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
Do see steel cables...?
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
You know what i start doing when i get in a trade ? I start watching the bid/ask quotes on the right side of my chart (not shown). I think it's taking my focus away of S/R and the MA yet sometimes i think it helps.
Another thing that i think happened was the scale on my chart at the time was too narrow so it was looking like i was close to my stop. In actuality the current price was further from my stop than i was thinking i was seeing. It makes sense in a weird kind of way.
So yeah thanks i need to stay calm and objective and see everything.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
Only thing that matters is price....looking at ur charts settings...average range of a candle is abt 2 points...a trend or a trade will be only meaning ful over a few candles..!!! Thats rufly 6-8 points. Stop geting in an out of 1 or two candles...ur trading scared. Face the facts. Be realistic....it will take 4-5 candles in opposite direction of the trend to change the direction of the cable...even then price will be in ur range of entry/stop for few minutes...focust on price...let price to reveal its cards...
thanks guys.
yes, i've become too focused on PnL and bid/ask. I need to focus on the chart which is what's getting me into the trades. Sometimes i'm getting pretty great entries too , i think. Then i blow it because i'm taking focus off the chart.
Entries and exits off same info. Ignore noise, stay focused and hold until chart says the trade is no longer valid.
From the psych side of it .....when in the trade; just relax a little more. it's only one trade. And as i type that i realize i'm also being influenced by prior losses in the day which is making it harder to relax. So from now on my first trade must always be a large winner so the rest of the day will be stress free. Oh wouldn't that be nice
Quote from jack411:
stop looking at the DOM.
__________________
Trade Less
Quote from Rashid_G.:
Well said.. I actually changed platforms from one that had no other useful entry method other than the DOM.. drove me to madness.. I will ask the question you jas may not like the answer to...
In recent months how has watching the trade every minute IMPROVED your results?
Ninja does a good job of risk management right?
I dont know ... may be i am lill old school... but i am not in favor of letting STop's be used as an exit or use set targets with the system.
a- for the most part it takes the fun out of the game,
b- It takes away the learning experience.
c.- if a stop is SET or A target IS FIXED >>> this only means that YOU expect/hope/even WANT the market to behave according to your rules.
Learnin in trading is to read the price action - plain and simple. Making decisions come naturally then & that's how it is suppose to be. Big money cannot be made with this type of trading.
just a personal read.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Jas, ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS have a stop in place. Don't listen to anything else. Mental stops are b*lls**t.
Quote from Snowman75:
Jas, ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS have a stop in place. Don't listen to anything else. Mental stops are b*lls**t.
Yup! You know the day you don't put a stop, is the day some stupid news will come out and move the market a zillion points in the opposite direction and you can't click "close trade" fast enough.
10 trades , zero points
The usual early exits. the only good thing going on is my read of the mrkt on entries has improved over where it used to be. Not sure how it'll be when volatility dies down but expect the set ups
not to be effected.
I need to seriously think about what i'm trying to accomplish with my trades and understand better why i'm doing what i'm doing.
Conservatively i should be up +25 right now , 40 if i were real good letting them run.
One thing i've heard good traders do is to try to visualize future price action. Anticipate. I'm not doing that.
I think i'll pull out my copy of The Disciplined Trader. This is a mental problem only i can resolve.
PS my short i exited early is still falling
chart later . 3 hrs to go . I may be done for the day
wondering if my constintency is good enough to try 2 cars and scaling out. I';ll have to look at the numbers.
I am afraid, adding an extra car is only going to increase your risk per trade... you are still very sesitive to your PnL with one car... i would not recommend, until you have mastered learning to differentiate between winners and loosers....
rather i would suggest trying to add once you know its a winner...that way you have certain cushion build up to carry the 2nd car rather than starting with two cars ...
Humas usually only analyse positive outcomes better than negatives.... incase a two car trade runs against you and hits ur stop... you will be thrown off balance mentally.
adding a car @ initial trade = adding more risk to begin with!
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
I need to seriously think about what i'm trying to accomplish with my trades and understand better why i'm doing what i'm doing.
One thing i've heard good traders do is to try to visualize future price action. Anticipate. I'm not doing that.
Take 2 units only if account risk remains the same (smaller stop which probably doesn't work)... Adding a unit for scaling reasons doesn't make sense unless the second unit REALLY pays for itself rather than simple add risk. I have tried this only to find I got even more nervous.. you are already not holding near long enough as it is.. IF not holding long enough is the issue (it is for me) then you (I?) need to go to 1/2 unit so I can be less nervous...
You COULD also think.. "2 units, more risk therefore I will be more selective"... BUT if not.. more losses.
__________________
Trade Less
Really not a lot to say. 15 trades + 12 points. not all shown on the chart.
Sometimes my stops are too tight and i re enter a couple times before i get the trade. That's fine with me.
Holding winners is a problem which if you look at the chart you'll see what i'm talking about.
If i lost $ today i would be frustrated and angry . As it is i'm more in awe of what could have been. I'll admit it's a little amusing as well in a strange kind of way.
I will figure this out. I will not let myself be beat by me !
Trying too hard today and lacking a bit of focus.
-5.25 pt and too many trades- 13.
Today i tried holding some winners that didn't work out. MFE of 6.50 on one trade exit +1.75. Another MFE +3.5 exit -1.25. Don't let a winner become a loser. This 'rule' i wonder about. Strictly follow or be willing to take some heat ?
My price read on some of these was saying exit but i was trying to impose the hold longer mindset i lacked yesterday. The difference though was yesterday i was exiting quickly more on emotion and to grab profits whereas today when i was wanting to exit i think it was a more legitimate read of PA. All part of the learning curve i think.
There is progress despite the lousy results today. I still believe my read of the market is far better than before. In the past it felt like i was just trying things or jumping into trends. Now i know why i'm taking trades.
Still lots and lots of room for improvement.
Holding winners for more despite price holding/pausing at S/R levels.
Again a couple trades w/ MFE +5 that i exit -.50 and -1.00
Majority of my entries are where i want to be getting in and are good reads on the market. Still a few flat out bad entries.
Moving my stop to near BE too soon and not taking profits based on price action are still my problem areas.
Looking at past trade results if i use 2 cars and exit 1 at a fixed
+ 3.00 pts and hold the other and exit based on my actual exit then it definitely adds points overall. Even of course figuring the 2 cars on losses. I would expect the actual results to be even better because it would allow the second car to run more than my historic numbers.
logically it makes sense to me , psychologically i'm not quite sure if i'm ready to do it.
Anyway, down -6.00 pts today. I hope i'm not deluding myself in my abilities or my methods. It seems that what i'm doing currently(even staying at 1 car ) with just a slightly different exit strategy should work very well.
chart w/ a few trades
take a look
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Thanks JP.
Enter on pullbacks in the direction of the TREND.
In general I know i currently trade reversals set ups better than my other set ups. At least w/ entries. Entering on pullbacks is not my strength and i'm aware of it and working on it. Maybe it's leading to a bias in what i'm looking for. Thanks for the reminder.
Cheers !
No trades today.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Thanks JP.
Enter on pullbacks in the direction of the TREND.
In general I know i currently trade reversals set ups better than my other set ups. At least w/ entries. Entering on pullbacks is not my strength and i'm aware of it and working on it. Maybe it's leading to a bias in what i'm looking for. Thanks for the reminder.
Cheers !
No trades today.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
another thing
resistance is in a AREA and not in a specific numbers... price has to show clear REVERSAL OF TREND to confirm a reversal in those AREAS.... 2-3 average sized candles are still in the AREA of resistand - thats 3* time frame of wait BEFORE you can START looking for reversal entries.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Still struggling. not much to say at this point. Whatever i'm doing wrong i need to figure out myself and find a way to correct.
My most common problems are still: bad price read- usually going counter trend at wrong time, exiting winners too soon or not willing to take heat.
Today had some volatile swings in NQ which didn't make it easy at times. I actually thought about switching to ES as it seems a little less volatile. Not going to do that just yet.
Lately i haven't had as much time to do post mrkt review. Going forward i should have more time and intend to spend more time learning from my mistakes.
that's it for now.
I think I'm not taking enough trades with the trend.
One of my entry triggers is reversal bars. Lately i'm not taking them in the proper context. A bearish reversal bar in an uptrend is less likely to work unless there are other signs of a reversal ie 123 top or dbl top. I'm taking too many reversal bars out of context.
I need more with trend entries. Why make it harder than it should be ? And more patience.
8 trades- zero wins. 6 trades on the short side. i'm relying too much on reversal set ups. Go with the trend.
attached a couple trades i'm not embarrassed to post.
I'll admit that with what i think i know i should be doing a hell of a lot better. Clearly i don't know as much as i think i do. Still learning- slowly.
strategy suggestions
jas,
looking at your chart there I think you may benefit from these two threads:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=113456
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...3&highlight=AHG
good luck,
tihfa
Re: strategy suggestions
Quote from tihfa:
jas,
looking at your chart there I think you may benefit from these two threads:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=113456
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...3&highlight=AHG
good luck,
tihfa
I gotta laugh. I mean really what else can one do at times like this.
Confidence issue in my trades. Trust myself more. i think i had some right ideas then i mucked it up with some crap.
easy to see after the fact
first trade i liked how i took a little heat at the beginning which is good for me. after that it fell apart.
on some level i think i know what i should be doing but it's just not happening. geez i must sound like every other wannabe trader.
Not easy.. After watching the first 45 minutes I simply did not want to trade. At least you got some experience. The mental forces are strong.
My mental psyche when I was doing well very different from lately.. I see more loss in the PA than profit.. Mainly because it takes much longer in low vol chop to get to relative safety per trade.
__________________
Trade Less
Solution ( i have brought this up before too) - move to eqities...its less choppy if you kow how to screen stocks... trends are very consistent - if you can pick the right stocks...
Mu day trading screener only gave me 4 stocks out of the 9000 listed US equities...!!
the ususal suspects are in the watch list/ small charts in on screen - a glance over them will check for any entries.
Also, futures DO NOT TREND WELL - LEVERAGE causes PnL to move too much too fast - making it difficult to get the pulse of direction.
If you switch - you wont be s Leaver/looser - but smarter. Must realize that ur a/c size, risk tolerance, experience are not in sync to handle the futures market - let alone whne Vix > 20. Its not a retreat, its a move thats appropriate to the situation. Attached is my screener result - pull up their 5/3 min charts and see fr ur self what i am talking about. Jas - keep steel cables in ur mind when you look at these.
GL.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
ah but i'm having so much fun with the NQ.
I realize it's about the cash - equities, futures whatever it takes. I'll take a look at the charts of those stocks later today. Not quite ready to switch just yet though i'm pretty sure.
I do need to refer more to the larger time frame , 3 or 5 min chart, more often after a trade to get proper perspective. i watch 30 minute as well.
Thanks for the support JP and Rashid.
I can relate to where you are coz... i went thru the same shit phase...its not that anything changes whn you switch from NQ to equities or forex..
Basic realization is ture that trading is independent of assest class that you are trading...true ... but and its a big butt - that trading is only possible on trends/momentums. same security does not Trend everyday - all the time. This results in overtrading - taking semi confirmed setups ...solely because you are bored.
Some securities like futures are not as liquid/ do not have finer price breaks(ie only .25pt per tick or 1 per tick) so you end up getting a higher ALPH on your trade (PnL). for an a/c as small as beginners they do not realize this. And get damaging performance. hit and misses, loose mental balance quickly.
As a trader all you are doing is managing risk !! Risk tolerance is directly propotional to your a/c size and experience. So its like giving a cessena pilot to fly a boeing 747. He could fly it - but chance are that he will fuck up during landing or take off. Ability to control risk mid trade is very key as you need to adjust your exposure based on market movements.
Trader should be adaptable to changing market conditions. Its a cliche however - you can make/ choose the markets/securities that your are adept with. Other way around comes ONLY with experience - a/c size has nothing to with that.
The stocks that I have on the screener - have very basic filers on stock price size, unusual volume, Cap size, avg vol. etc. What its doing is - its bringing forward stocks on the move at that very moment - nothing more nothing less. you dont have to analyze whats in the news, how , why when, or predict which way they are moving. There will be a clear move in one direction and with VOLUME. Thats the key to tie these basic elements and create a situation that can be managed easily (size) and is not Unpredictable (trend with Vol).
Don't think if you switch you have given up on trading - but learned an important chapter in your career - Picking the Race you KNOW you will Win.
GL
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
More patience today, more looking at higher time frame and less counter trend trades. Once the opening range low was taken out i was just looking for shorts. There were a few areas where i thought about going long but decided to stick with the dominant trend. In the last hour looked like enough buying was coming in and some downsloping TL were broken so i took a long for a couple points.
Only problem today was missing some solid entries. I'll review to try to figure out why i missed. Think it was i was seeing a set up but not seeing a solid trigger. Entering on a break out is not my favorite trigger.
5 trades + 6.75 pts
market blasted off in last hour. i hesitated on a long entry and missed it. The main lesson for me is :If the market doesn't do what you think it should be doing then it will likely do the opposite.
Today for example the market tried several times to make a new HOD and failed. It then fell below a support level confirming a top but it wouldn't fall much further. If longs were nervous about their position the market should have fallen as they exited but that didn't happen. As price came back into the range it made one more attempt to go lower then quickly reversed paused and then shot up. This was more than a failed downside break out, which usually happen faster, this had a different feel and look but same result.
makes sense to me.
6 trades + 6.50 pts. bailed to soon on my winning long.
PnL attached
A little Short are we??
__________________
Trade Less
Quote from Rashid_G.:
A little Short are we??
shutting down
very frustrated once again.
not looking for pity.. no comments necessary. just trying to document the journey and figure out what i'm doing . trading chop and some bad reads. some discipline issues .
if i sell a break out it fails , if i don't sell it, it drops. normal stuff.
on some level i am learning. At least i hope i am. I'll admit i'm disappointed in myself but i will figure this out.
-19.75 points. yes really.
You saw my trades for today... The thing I simply don't seem to be able to get in my head is:
SIT TIGHT AND WATCH until you can read what is going on. If you don't do this you trade what you EXPECT to go on. Two VERY different results. But because I want EVERY swing I get involved before the quality of the PA is known.
So what if I miss the first couple of GREAT swings.. Great, clean swings are a sign of a good trading day so why not wait until it reveals itself.
This road CAN be forever.. it really can be. It is possible in 10 years the same patterns are repeating.. Starting TOMORROW do what you haven't done before so you can make profits you haven't made before.
Sorry about your loss.. I can feel it.
__________________
Trade Less
Thanks. you had a nice comeback btw.
I think lack of patience at times comes from trying too hard. for me at least. The hard thing to do and the correct thing to do would be to have patience. Trying harder sometimes means doing nothing. Not what we are typically use to doing.
It's a vicious cycle. A couple losses lead to trying harder and more trades.
Quote from Rashid_G.:
You saw my trades for today... The thing I simply don't seem to be able to get in my head is:
SIT TIGHT AND WATCH until you can read what is going on. If you don't do this you trade what you EXPECT to go on. Two VERY different results. But because I want EVERY swing I get involved before the quality of the PA is known.
So what if I miss the first couple of GREAT swings.. Great, clean swings are a sign of a good trading day so why not wait until it reveals itself.
This road CAN be forever.. it really can be. It is possible in 10 years the same patterns are repeating.. Starting TOMORROW do what you haven't done before so you can make profits you haven't made before.
Sorry about your loss.. I can feel it.
I have just finished reading your journal.
Thanks for sharing your travel.
It is almost a year you started it and I see progress, I wish I can tell that in a year myself.
You got many great advices from jokepie and others.
Please, continue, and post charts if it is not much of a hassle.
I've had days like that and they suck. You gotta always keep in the back of your mind the question "Is this a sideways chop day?"
I didn't do well either but kept it small. Plus it was sim so didn't feel so bad On the other hand, I made a killing in this past month in sim.
Keep at it.
S.
Clight & Snowman,
Thanks guys .
I was mostly frustrated with myself yesterday. I do believe the market can be read so it's not a futile attempt but a patience and control myself issue.
Although a better understanding of PA is always what i'm striving for too.
quick chart
down move felt extended. exited quick
one thing i've tried doing lately is primarily trade direction of major trend. today took all shorts because trend on 30 minute chart was down. I'm not so thrilled with the idea. Some nice long trades after a quick reversal at the lows i passed on .
trying some new ideas and working on patience
- 2.00 pts
Hey Jas
Thanks for your posts. The issues you have been dealing with have helped me understand some of my problems too.
In the thought of 'crazy is doing the same things and expecting different results', two recent changes I've made....
I spent $100 on a spreadsheet program to track my trades. Thinking about what you have said, and looking at my spreadsheet... some things were obvious. I thought I had a pretty good DIY spreadsheet, but a professional one has helped me understand much more.
I also started putting markers on my charts to indicate where a likely trade would be as the day progresses... and coded them for 'iffy' or 'high confidence' [like a tiny light green trendline for an 'iffy' long entry and a tiny dark green trendline for a 'high confidence' long entry] . So I'm sort of paper trading on my live chart. Committing with just a marker to places in the past I might have put on a real trade.
Then as I watch the market unfolds, I see how in or out of sink with the market I am... and I find I'm becoming more selective when I place an actual trade. It's like I'm paying more attention... in a different way, and getting more feedback. I have more confidence when I'm in sink and then place a real trade.
....at least this is working for the present!
At the end of the day I look at all my 'sim' trades which are still sitting on the chart and compair with the best trades the day offered. And the trades I actually took. It's revealing!
Anyway, wish you the best and thanks for posting!
Great that you're making progress, Hooti ! What'd i say ?
Actually nevermind what i said. Do you have an example of what you learned by looking at a spreadsheet of your trades ?
TIA
Comments about with-trend versus countertrend trading, being selective... etc. etc. I have all those issues, up and downs too.
One thing I saw right away was how poorly I was doing countertrend trading. The next thing that stood out to me was that... on reveiwing the day... I was taking trades, but missing the best trades of the day. And I could track my thinking in the process of that. So I'm beginning to change that.
Someone on ET recommended the spreadsheet.
http://tradingspreadsheets.com
or google 'trading journal spreadsheet'
I bought the $100 one, 'TJS pro'.... they have one that does multiple markets that I'm not doing... it costs more.
I'm happy with it, it probably paid for it's self within a day or two.
Have you ever done something like the 'sorta paper trading' I described? I've just plain paper traded... but doing it this way has just been a totally different experience. This way I get into that relaxed attentive space of papertrading... where losses aren't personal!
When I am successful, I kind of carry that relaxed attention into my real trade. I am much more aware of what's going on instead of what I think should be going on! ...also I'm tracking my 'sorta papertrades' and learning from them. A double benefit.
Another problem is that I've consistently reviewed the days chart afterwards... and seen how many 'perfect' set ups that I didn't even see real time. But when I paper trade I tend to see them. That really puzzled me for awhile. I observe it's because I'm more relaxed papertrading and not trying to force the market as I instinctive do when my money is on the line! So when I'm putting just my 'marker' down on the chart where I'd make a trade... my attitude changes. Hope that makes sense!
Most will say they understand Price action, but few "live it".
Most of the time, Price will make "Secondary Low or High" (testing of previous low or high of move), this will either be start of a New Trend or a retracement back of old trend. In Elliot wave terms, the Secondary will be wave 2. So either by noticing the move that forms the lowest low or highest high to see if that was a previous long trend or short OR the Index has moved so many points that are normal for a completed swing can help one to figure out if market is due for change of trend. Another clue can be the EMA, by seeing the slope and only trading in the direction of the slope. I keep a ten day average of the day session range, so from a low to day session high is what this average is and a secondary pivot high is testing the high of the day, it might fail and I can sell and my risk wil be tight.
One of your recent charts the EMA was flat and cutting thru the middle of most of the bars, this is chop, so unless you are selling highs, buying lows and using small targets and risk, best to avoid. Wait till you have several bars worth of slope before seeking a trade, let price come down to touch EMA and then buy above lowest high, place stop a few tics below the lows for protective stop. If this bar is too large than normal which increases risk, pass on the trade to see if a new lower high will form, often this forms this way to suck in the inexpereinced to buy too high. If trend has just started, can get for 5-10pts, but longer the trend duration, smaller the target.
Maybe cut back your trading, shoot for a goal of 5/10pts and four trades max, and trade only first 90 minutes. If you can get good enough to make 2-300 a week, dozen weeks later, increase to a two lot.
Keep track of breaking of pivots, if index breaks it by a few tics, chances are not enough volume to push it higher, but if price breaks pivot high by several tics, look for continuation. Watch out for really huge bars, often times next several bars will fit inside that big bar, never know which direction Price will go.
I have always thought trendlines are better suited for 60 minute and beyond timeframes, too much false moves in smaller timeframes for me unless you have patience for false breakout, retracement, then enter order for original breakout. There are reasons why there are so many false breakouts, to cause lose for those who don't understand Price Action.
When I watch Price bars, I constantly am looking where the "little guy is going to get screwed", cause there 95% of them are certainly doing a fine job.
Actually, I do the same as Hooti, I am marking all my signals on the chart as the day progresses. It is easier with 5 min tf, but one could do it easily on 2 or 3 min as well. It helps the focus, and at the end of the day you can evaluate more easily. I also take a snapshot of each signal and I collect them in folders and keep stats in spreadsheets.
But you are much ahead of me, reading your journal, so you will get out of this slump.
-----------
I agree with Handle123 on the pa and the small guys losses.
Some of my signals evolved from the fact that I always got stopped out. may be look at your trade history again from this angle.
just my 2 cents.
Thanks Handle,
Pretty much every time i come across one of your posts i end up printing it.
I do try to anticipate where stops are and think that way but haven't quite got it yet.
Thanks for the tips . I'll be reviewing them some more.
I haven't done the mix of sim and real. If i made $$ on sim and i'd probably become more frustrated.
I like what you're doing . It sounds like your on the right path.
GL
Quote from Hooti:
Comments about with-trend versus countertrend trading, being selective... etc. etc. I have all those issues, up and downs too.
One thing I saw right away was how poorly I was doing countertrend trading. The next thing that stood out to me was that... on reveiwing the day... I was taking trades, but missing the best trades of the day. And I could track my thinking in the process of that. So I'm beginning to change that.
Someone on ET recommended the spreadsheet.
http://tradingspreadsheets.com
or google 'trading journal spreadsheet'
I bought the $100 one, 'TJS pro'.... they have one that does multiple markets that I'm not doing... it costs more.
I'm happy with it, it probably paid for it's self within a day or two.
Have you ever done something like the 'sorta paper trading' I described? I've just plain paper traded... but doing it this way has just been a totally different experience. This way I get into that relaxed attentive space of papertrading... where losses aren't personal!
When I am successful, I kind of carry that relaxed attention into my real trade. I am much more aware of what's going on instead of what I think should be going on! ...also I'm tracking my 'sorta papertrades' and learning from them. A double benefit.
Another problem is that I've consistently reviewed the days chart afterwards... and seen how many 'perfect' set ups that I didn't even see real time. But when I paper trade I tend to see them. That really puzzled me for awhile. I observe it's because I'm more relaxed papertrading and not trying to force the market as I instinctive do when my money is on the line! So when I'm putting just my 'marker' down on the chart where I'd make a trade... my attitude changes. Hope that makes sense!
Thanks CL,
Do a search on Handle and read some his posts in different threads. He always is worth reading
Quote from clightmarathon:
Actually, I do the same as Hooti, I am marking all my signals on the chart as the day progresses. It is easier with 5 min tf, but one could do it easily on 2 or 3 min as well. It helps the focus, and at the end of the day you can evaluate more easily. I also take a snapshot of each signal and I collect them in folders and keep stats in spreadsheets.
But you are much ahead of me, reading your journal, so you will get out of this slump.
-----------
I agree with Handle123 on the pa and the small guys losses.
Some of my signals evolved from the fact that I always got stopped out. may be look at your trade history again from this angle.
just my 2 cents.
I'm trying to incorporate the use of trendlines more. Looks promising but it's screwing with my head a bit. Blending it with price action is tricky. The PA needs to take the priority however sometimes a TL can be a good filter and indicate an entry may not be the best spot .
My brain is on overload. Is it a failed breakout or breakout pullback ? Pullback in a trend or new trend ? I'm probably trying too hard to understand every move then get fatigued. When in doubt stick with trend and try to find my set ups and ignore the noise. And review after hours.
Like Hooti said, i'm getting trades just not getting the good trades i should be. Might post more this weekend if i stumble onto anything good.
Arrived to office late so missed the early run up.
5 minute 20 ema too flat on some trades i took. 1 minute time frame they looked better. I need a bit more patience.
As always, after the fact there were better entries.
Still trying to digest a couple new ideas.
Better focus today. Had an interruption around 12:00 pst
and missed a good short entry. Getting into a trend is still tough for me at times so just watched and tried to learn something.
6 trades +12.25
Still too greedy or biased. Had 1 trade MFE of 5 that i exited for .75. Should have been more willing to take some heat on a couple trades as trade was still working. Then again i like for them to work very quickly. i'm going to lose readers as it's the same old story.
This quest that you're on... It's to hell and destruction. The last time I checked, it is a sin to pilage and destroy other innocent traders' accounts.
oh they're not so innocent.
How 'bout: jasinhbca's Highway to Hell
Cue soundtrack..
Cruel markets reward then slap you across the face.
Exited at my target w/ a resting order a bit above support. Yeah ! + 9
Market then continued to fall with barely a pause another 20 points.
Frustrated ? Only for the first 15 pts i missed.
After that, oh well that's the way it goes sometimes, right ?
(I'll be looking at that target selection again)
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Cruel markets reward then slap you across the face.
Exited at my target w/ a resting order a bit above support. Yeah ! + 9
Market then continued to fall with barely a pause another 20 points.
Frustrated ? Only for the first 15 pts i missed.
After that, oh well that's the way it goes sometimes, right ?
(I'll be looking at that target selection again)
__________________
Trade Less
Quote from Rashid_G.:
Brother, weep with me.. I shorted 2349.75 (key level from yesterday).... fearfully took 3.75 profit.
Trade management.
Had a decent entry on a short. Placed my stop a little wider than normal based on structure. Price went my way to + 4 . Figured if it showed signs of reversing i would exit. Well, it did reverse, about 9 pts in less than 30 seconds. I was looking at a diff time frame chart saw the acceleration but too late. Hit my stop for
-3.25
I assumed quite wrongly i would have time to exit.
Lesson learned . move stop. even if only to BE. No reason a trade that far in my favor should become a large loss.
Another topic/comment. Sometimes i look at the chart and think "this makes no sense. Is there order here ? What the hell am i doing ?" 
PnL attached
Trust the trend.
I keep letting myself get shaken out by quick reversal bars.
Psych issue partly 'cause i'm thinking about getting in, hesitate, enter late then start thinking i'm wrong.
Again.
My price read was a failed b/o but I didn't wait to see if Supp would hold and turn it into a break out pullback.
This is same problem i had a year ago-exit at support.
some kind of need for instant gratification or just plain fear ? don't know.
I'm not seeing context as well once i get in the trade. i think that's it. More focus on the big picture- that is more than the last 2 bars !
Really, this should be an easy fix.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Again.
My price read was a failed b/o but I didn't wait to see if Supp would hold and turn it into a break out pullback.
This is same problem i had a year ago-exit at support.
some kind of need for instant gratification or just plain fear ? don't know.
I'm not seeing context as well once i get in the trade. i think that's it. More focus on the big picture- that is more than the last 2 bars !
Really, this should be an easy fix.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
I know. I know. My mind doesn't see them once i get in a trade.
I keep trying to make this harder than it should be.
Quote from jokepie:
C
A
B
L
E
S
W
O
R
K
__________________
Trade Less
cables=MA
this one will probably run 30 pts more but decent pts for me and i managed to hold through the indecision go or fail stage
(not sure why i'm posting so much today. guess i feel chatty. good lessons in the charts too i think)
that last trade ran another 14 after the exit.
+ 7 on the day, 4 trades
Given the volatility i need to be striving for bigger targets.
I'm trading conservatively mostly (i rationalize) due to last weeks poor trading. I really need a decent week to get my head back on straight. So far so good.
Next i'll work on once and for all my problem of exiting too soon.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
that last trade ran another 14 after the exit.
+ 7 on the day, 4 trades
Given the volatility i need to be striving for bigger targets.
I'm trading conservatively mostly (i rationalize) due to last weeks poor trading. I really need a decent week to get my head back on straight. So far so good.
Next i'll work on once and for all my problem of exiting too soon.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
thanks JP. I should start thinking about where i can add rather than where can i take profits. Not that i'm ready to start adding to positions but it's a good mindset and may get me to hold winners longer on the good days.
2 trades -4.25 today. A little forced. Stopped trading early as today looked to be chop. Mostly it was . A couple decent moves late in day it looks like.
Next week i expect limited trading. Having work done at our house so at most will get to trade first couple hours only. Last time i wasn't around for trading (August) the markets had some huge down moves. Hopefully this time i don't miss much
I'm back. Only had 2 trades last week if i remember correctly. (Traded from home so don't have record here) A BE and +1.00
Today 1.50 pts on 5 trades.
I'm approaching the 1 year mark for my ET journal. I expect going forward i will be posting less. It seems to me that it's becoming rather repetitive which doesn't provide much further education for others. I also don't want this to become a self indulgent forum for me to whine about my lousy trading.
Having said that, i like the public journaling and have got some fantastic feedback from other traders. So i will continue posting a couple times a week to document my progress and share any breakthoughs/ideas that may help others.
Soon i'd like to post on what i've learned over this past year and what i need to do to get consistently profitable.
Just to be clear i am not at all discouraged or frustrated w/ my trading currently. I'm in this for the long haul and feel ready to push it to the next level.
A good day for review.
Areas i believe I've improved on over the past year (but will always be working to improve further):
1 I understand the nuances of my set ups much better.
2 I read price action better.
3 Manage my stress levels in trades better through awareness and breathing.
4 Understand my weaknesses better
5 I have more patience and less chasing of trades
Areas I need to improve on:
1 Holding winners
2 Holding winners
3 Take all set ups
4 I need to learn to trade strong trend days better. I miss an entry then never find a place to enter. It always feels like chasing.
As far as holding winners; i think i finally realize that on "normal" days exiting for 3-8 point profit before a sharp retracement generally works fine. On strong trend days like today the fear of retracement is unfounded. I need to trail my stop well above S/R areas. This is all rather vague yet i think i'm slowly getting it.
This is the area i need to conquer and will be working on more specifics.
And JP , damn if i had simply used the 20 ema on my 1 minute everything would be beautiful.
i posted this chart in Instyncts NQ thread also. Embarrassing really.
Its a journey ... just full of fun...so don't forget to nJoy it
A little sarcasm - Whats with you and flat chested trades..i mean flat ema's.. ??? Seriously.... Its like you are playing hide and seek between flat parallel candles. Peekaabooo... I am in and then i am out...!!!
Great that you have started to see the difference between Normal and trendy days...
Next step would be to take advantage of that with not only holding the trade longer but learning to Add size.
That will be the final plunge.... mark my words... that day you will say .... zen...zen.....zenn.....Shit m gonna be rich....!!
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
My thoughts are you ALSO need to add a framework/context to your trading. This can be achieved in different ways. You need to find what you like and what works for you. Examples you can check out are: market profile, pivots, openning high/low, etc
Having such a context will help you with your trades. Personally, it has changed my trading for the better.
Good luck!
thanks guys.
For context i've been using opening range high/low, prior day hi/lo and channels.
i bot one of the dalton books you mentioned awhile back but honestly haven't got to it.
Was tired today. Took 1 trade for + 4.25 pts then pretty much clocked out mentally.
JIH
Read where you were having trouble staying in a trade
In your quest to create context, learn to also create targets
Channels…, S&R levels…, measured moves – identified on a higher a time frame can be use to identify targets on the TF you’re trading
Add to this the ability to read price and volume, you’ll easily stay in a trade till price either hits its target.., or tells ya its changed its mind and ain’t going there
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 minute is good to identify entries on, not so good to actually trade from (too easy to get the jitters/ google juice overload)
I realize the 1 minute is “perceived” as good for low risk entries… but, imo, contributes to more jumpy entries/ exits than Mexican jumping beans….
On one hand it may you save money – but on the other cause you to give it right back / jump out early and miss out
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Btw –
Context needs to be very specific… and reflect what price is saying…
Context should never reflect what you think… (just because I place a line on a chart doesn’t mean squat if price doesn’t acknowledge it)
Price will tell you when you’re nailing it
=======================================
Also, for now, you may consider peeling off the middle of a move…, or even better peeling the middle of “with trend” moves
Save the ‘going both ways” / “entering at the turning points” for later - after you’ve gotten more seat time
========================================
identify with trend entries, using PA and context… wait till target is reached to exit, using context.., knowing when your are wrong exits, using context…, and knowing when to exit early, using PA
In reality, all these rely on PA skills – but it gives you an idea how important specific context really is
=======================================
Two other thoughts
Take all your setups, never know which will be “the one”
Use a higher TF to show you the trend/ move you want to trade
jmho…, and some thoughts to ponder Sir
RN
RN,
Thanks for your time and advice.
I used to use 3 min for higher TF and 1 min for entry. Recently switched to 5 min instead of 3. (I also use some other higher TF for more big picture.) Anyway , i think my traders mind is finally starting to get the interplay between the TF's.
Alot of what you mention i'm aware of but still trying to apply. Measured moves and volume analysis i don't do much or any of so i'll put that on my list of things to learn.
I do think a big part of my issue is mental. I'm not sure why but i think i'm tensing up then start looking for a reason to exit. I might have to give your 'belief' exercise a try and drill down to what's going on. I don't expect perfection in trading but I do expect that i can trade from a more objective , clear mindset.
Quote from Redneck:
JIH
Read where you were having trouble staying in a trade
In your quest to create context, learn to also create targets
Channels…, S&R levels…, measured moves – identified on a higher a time frame can be use to identify targets on the TF you’re trading
Add to this the ability to read price and volume, you’ll easily stay in a trade till price either hits its target.., or tells ya its changed its mind and ain’t going there
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 minute is good to identify entries on, not so good to actually trade from (too easy to get the jitters/ google juice overload)
I realize the 1 minute is “perceived” as good for low risk entries… but, imo, contributes to more jumpy entries/ exits than Mexican jumping beans….
On one hand it may you save money – but on the other cause you to give it right back / jump out early and miss out
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Btw –
Context needs to be very specific… and reflect what price is saying…
Context should never reflect what you think… (just because I place a line on a chart doesn’t mean squat if price doesn’t acknowledge it)
Price will tell you when you’re nailing it
=======================================
Also, for now, you may consider peeling off the middle of a move…, or even better peeling the middle of “with trend” moves
Save the ‘going both ways” / “entering at the turning points” for later - after you’ve gotten more seat time
========================================
identify with trend entries, using PA and context… wait till target is reached to exit, using context.., knowing when your are wrong exits, using context…, and knowing when to exit early, using PA
In reality, all these rely on PA skills – but it gives you an idea how important specific context really is
=======================================
Two other thoughts
Take all your setups, never know which will be “the one”
Use a higher TF to show you the trend/ move you want to trade
jmho…, and some thoughts to ponder Sir
RN
"It might do this instead this time" That's what i was thinking. It may not give the trigger i want this time so just get in.
Wrong !
I hate to reveal this, but the holy grail is....patterns repeat. At least that's the theory for today.
Patience and trust my ability. And don't compound mistakes by repeating them.
Managed to recover on 3rd trade so +1.25 pts for the day. Might take the bankers holiday myself. This day doesn't feel like it fits my style.
short NQ @54.25
target 48.25
__________________
Go Chicago Bulls
You can make it to the Hall of Fame getting base hits or home runs... but you gotta protect the plate!
Patient traders obtain better prices than impatient traders do because they are willing to search longer and harder to arrange their trades at favorable terms. Impatient traders pay for the privilege of trading when they want to trade... Larry Harris, Trading & Exchanges.
...it was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should have showed the greatest profit... their experience matched mine... they made no real money. Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon... but it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. The market does not beat them they beat themselves because though they have brains they cannot sit tight! Reminiscences (V)
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
"It might do this instead this time" That's what i was thinking. It may not give the trigger i want this time so just get in.
Wrong !
I hate to reveal this, but the holy grail is....patterns repeat. At least that's the theory for today.
Patience and trust my ability. And don't compound mistakes by repeating them.
Managed to recover on 3rd trade so +1.25 pts for the day. Might take the bankers holiday myself. This day doesn't feel like it fits my style.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from iceman1:
short NQ @54.25
target 48.25
__________________
Go Chicago Bulls
You can make it to the Hall of Fame getting base hits or home runs... but you gotta protect the plate!
Patient traders obtain better prices than impatient traders do because they are willing to search longer and harder to arrange their trades at favorable terms. Impatient traders pay for the privilege of trading when they want to trade... Larry Harris, Trading & Exchanges.
...it was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should have showed the greatest profit... their experience matched mine... they made no real money. Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon... but it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. The market does not beat them they beat themselves because though they have brains they cannot sit tight! Reminiscences (V)
Quote from iceman1:
out @51
too early in day - looking for sell-off later
will post re-entry
__________________
Go Chicago Bulls
You can make it to the Hall of Fame getting base hits or home runs... but you gotta protect the plate!
Patient traders obtain better prices than impatient traders do because they are willing to search longer and harder to arrange their trades at favorable terms. Impatient traders pay for the privilege of trading when they want to trade... Larry Harris, Trading & Exchanges.
...it was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should have showed the greatest profit... their experience matched mine... they made no real money. Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon... but it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. The market does not beat them they beat themselves because though they have brains they cannot sit tight! Reminiscences (V)
well, the 5 min ema was up. i understand what you're saying re: my entry timeframe. I generally feel like i'm chasing if i wait for more confirmation from a sloping ema. It's an entry technique i'm not good at. Yet.
I'll PM you in a bit.
Quote from iceman1:
selling at 55.25- 56.25 (may not get in)
stop 60
__________________
Go Chicago Bulls
You can make it to the Hall of Fame getting base hits or home runs... but you gotta protect the plate!
Patient traders obtain better prices than impatient traders do because they are willing to search longer and harder to arrange their trades at favorable terms. Impatient traders pay for the privilege of trading when they want to trade... Larry Harris, Trading & Exchanges.
...it was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should have showed the greatest profit... their experience matched mine... they made no real money. Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon... but it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. The market does not beat them they beat themselves because though they have brains they cannot sit tight! Reminiscences (V)
Quote from iceman1:
-56.75
__________________
Go Chicago Bulls
You can make it to the Hall of Fame getting base hits or home runs... but you gotta protect the plate!
Patient traders obtain better prices than impatient traders do because they are willing to search longer and harder to arrange their trades at favorable terms. Impatient traders pay for the privilege of trading when they want to trade... Larry Harris, Trading & Exchanges.
...it was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should have showed the greatest profit... their experience matched mine... they made no real money. Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon... but it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. The market does not beat them they beat themselves because though they have brains they cannot sit tight! Reminiscences (V)
-59.25
looking for re-test of T/L
out 55
can't keep watching - on expiration Friday.
NQ will close at 2350
__________________
Go Chicago Bulls
You can make it to the Hall of Fame getting base hits or home runs... but you gotta protect the plate!
Patient traders obtain better prices than impatient traders do because they are willing to search longer and harder to arrange their trades at favorable terms. Impatient traders pay for the privilege of trading when they want to trade... Larry Harris, Trading & Exchanges.
...it was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should have showed the greatest profit... their experience matched mine... they made no real money. Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon... but it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. The market does not beat them they beat themselves because though they have brains they cannot sit tight! Reminiscences (V)
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
well, the 5 min ema was up. i understand what you're saying re: my entry timeframe. I generally feel like i'm chasing if i wait for more confirmation from a sloping ema. It's an entry technique i'm not good at. Yet.
I'll PM you in a bit.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from iceman1:
-59.25
looking for re-test of T/L
out 55
can't keep watching - on expiration Friday.
NQ will close at 2350
__________________
Go Chicago Bulls
You can make it to the Hall of Fame getting base hits or home runs... but you gotta protect the plate!
Patient traders obtain better prices than impatient traders do because they are willing to search longer and harder to arrange their trades at favorable terms. Impatient traders pay for the privilege of trading when they want to trade... Larry Harris, Trading & Exchanges.
...it was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should have showed the greatest profit... their experience matched mine... they made no real money. Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon... but it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. The market does not beat them they beat themselves because though they have brains they cannot sit tight! Reminiscences (V)
not a good day to short NQ
still expect to see 2350 or less by close - but there is an open gap so it's a coin toss this expiry
__________________
Go Chicago Bulls
You can make it to the Hall of Fame getting base hits or home runs... but you gotta protect the plate!
Patient traders obtain better prices than impatient traders do because they are willing to search longer and harder to arrange their trades at favorable terms. Impatient traders pay for the privilege of trading when they want to trade... Larry Harris, Trading & Exchanges.
...it was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should have showed the greatest profit... their experience matched mine... they made no real money. Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon... but it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. The market does not beat them they beat themselves because though they have brains they cannot sit tight! Reminiscences (V)
hard to trade futures if you are "weak hands." Very difficult. I watch the action and think "this is not easy, how the H does a newbie stop from getting shaken out repeatedly." I am not a futures trader per se, but I am used to taking heat. Plus I am long NDX calls today and most days long call or long puts on NDX - -- so easier to buy/short futures.
If the OP is getting shaken out with a ONE lot, then that does not bode well for future consistent profits. But it does look good the the B/D who will make a lot of commish.
better to give you $ to charity. then, try equities or options.
you don't have to persist in trading futures to make $$.
__________________
Go Chicago Bulls
You can make it to the Hall of Fame getting base hits or home runs... but you gotta protect the plate!
Patient traders obtain better prices than impatient traders do because they are willing to search longer and harder to arrange their trades at favorable terms. Impatient traders pay for the privilege of trading when they want to trade... Larry Harris, Trading & Exchanges.
...it was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should have showed the greatest profit... their experience matched mine... they made no real money. Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon... but it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. The market does not beat them they beat themselves because though they have brains they cannot sit tight! Reminiscences (V)
Quote from iceman1:
not a good day to short NQ
still expect to see 2350 or less by close - but there is an open gap so it's a coin toss this expiry
__________________
Go Chicago Bulls
You can make it to the Hall of Fame getting base hits or home runs... but you gotta protect the plate!
Patient traders obtain better prices than impatient traders do because they are willing to search longer and harder to arrange their trades at favorable terms. Impatient traders pay for the privilege of trading when they want to trade... Larry Harris, Trading & Exchanges.
...it was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should have showed the greatest profit... their experience matched mine... they made no real money. Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon... but it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. The market does not beat them they beat themselves because though they have brains they cannot sit tight! Reminiscences (V)
Take profits at LOD or hold ?
Ideally that would be a rule in my trading plan. Next best would be exit half (or other fixed amount) of the position.
My 1 car strategy is try to read PA and stick with trend.
Today a MFE +12 results in a +7.25 exit after LOD held.
2 trades today . +6.75 pts
My long term goal is 5 -10 pts a day and work up to 5 cars. I'm still trying to reconcile in my mind profit goals vs. process goals. I much prefer process goals as a more logical strategy but think for a business plan a profit goal makes sense too. Then there's the blended approach where if i hit my profit goal then keep trading with reduced contracts. I don't know, i'll figure that out later. For know still working on constistency.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Take profits at LOD or hold ?
Ideally that would be a rule in my trading plan. Next best would be exit half (or other fixed amount) of the position.
My 1 car strategy is try to read PA and stick with trend.
Today a MFE +12 results in a +7.25 exit after LOD held.
2 trades today . +6.75 pts
My long term goal is 5 -10 pts a day and work up to 5 cars. I'm still trying to reconcile in my mind profit goals vs. process goals. I much prefer process goals as a more logical strategy but think for a business plan a profit goal makes sense too. Then there's the blended approach where if i hit my profit goal then keep trading with reduced contracts. I don't know, i'll figure that out later. For know still working on constistency.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
For know still working on constistency.
Thanks guys.
'Patience' was one of my first ah- ha moments. Don't try to catch every move and don't feel the need to understand every move. Still working on it which of course is the discipline side.
Discipline is a learned skill. The more you practice it the more benefits you see, and the better you get at maintaining discipline.
Reminds me of what Instynct said about 9 to 5 mentality. In trading you don't get paid in a linear way.. no X$ for XHrs of work.. You may sit 4 hours and in 1 hour get paid for the day... Also difficult to go home with nothing or a loss.. You don't lose money at a 9 to 5 job..
Such a slooow build for some to get this.. I am far from it, even when I make money the sporadic nature causes stress.. A good exercise for a trader would be to monitor the markets all day BUT do nothing.. just watch. Not easy.
__________________
Trade Less
Quote from Rashid_G.:
... In trading you don't get paid in a linear way.. no X$ for XHrs of work.. ...
and i'll add that in most areas of life when you don't succeed you just try harder. In trading trying harder usually naturally results in making more trades. The correct solution is usually the exact opposite; to make less trades.
IMO
With all i've read over the years about how trading is primarily mental i still am not 100% convinced. maybe it's 50/50 psych/skill.
All i know today is that my skills were not enough to trade the market. That didn't stop me from trying though. A little more knowledge may have led to a little more patience.
Still reviewing but i believe 1 was a flat out bad trade. The others were decent entries that just didn't work this time. Although the last short was either mismanaged by too early exit or just missing the proper entry. Hell, maybe it is all mental. I was getting a little nervous on last trade because of the days loss. If i had been up i might have stuck with my proper stop and had a profitable trade.
Well, that says a lot now doesn't it. FOCUS on the CURRENT trade and trade it PROPERLY. And why do i continue to break this rule ? Gotta be confidence in myself.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
With all i've read over the years about how trading is primarily mental i still am not 100% convinced. maybe it's 50/50 psych/skill.
Quote from Redneck:
JIH
IMO
93 to 95% mental.... 5 to 7% mechanical
The nut running the mouse is the major contributor to his/ her success... or failure
RN
I don't think it was psych issues today. Just couldn't catch anything. I kept trading because i didn't feel i was taking bad trades.
O.K. so the question i ask myself is - what IF it was a psych issue ? What mistakes or opportunities did i miss due to my state of mind ?
Hard to say after the fact but possibly holding a short bias too long. Afraid to take a 2B buy (failed b/o). Also exited a trade too soon. Are these psych issues or just lack of experience ? I'll assume both and keep working on solving both. Holding trades longer - i need to just keep reminding myself this is a problem area to work on. Slowly making progress on this. Missing trades is experience and ability to accept the uncertain.
Still going 1 step forward , 1 back.
10 trades -12.75 pts. sounds bad but i think it was just one of those days.
Areas i continue to focus on:
Overcoming hesitation on entries. Accept uncertainty.
Take reasonable profits. Not every one will be a homerun.
Take heat when price action indicates to stay in trade.
I used to print charts of set ups and put in a binder. I've started doing that again. Making notes on charts and filing based on set up category. (Actually i'll be organizing the collected charts over the T-day break.)
Still just trying to grind it out and stay focused everyday. Was able to overcome some missed oppurtunities and frustration to end BE. Afternoon was more hesitation and missed trades.
It's very simple really. See the set up , accept the ambiguity, enter, manage the trade. Repeat.
My trade review process used to consist of printing out the chart for each trade, completing a trade review worksheet (set up type, exit type, gain/loss, mistakes, notes) then putting the info into excel.
After a while i stopped entering into excel. Then it got to the point that it was too many trades a day to complete a worksheet for. Plus i was collecting alot of paper work.
I haven't felt i was training myself properly by skipping the actual recording of info so now i've designed a new worksheet.
The important info in my development has been keeping track of my trading mistakes. So my new w/s is 1 page which i should be able to list all trades for the week on and the main item i'm recording is mistakes. I'll print charts only when it provides a good example for future reference.
I also want to keep track of the # of trades i'm missing.
Rather than describe it further i'll just post a pic.
Comments or suggestions welcomed and appreciated. Thanks !
Today 8 trades -.75 Still making mistakes. Correcting them is my primary focus now. this is an improvement for me as before i was always focused on understanding entries. I'm not improving as quickly as i had hoped but will be happy with at least the little progress i am making.
Happy Turkey day traders ! I hope everybody enjoys their day off.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
My trade review process used to consist of printing out the chart for each trade, completing a trade review worksheet (set up type, exit type, gain/loss, mistakes, notes) then putting the info into excel.
After a while i stopped entering into excel. Then it got to the point that it was too many trades a day to complete a worksheet for. Plus i was collecting alot of paper work.
I haven't felt i was training myself properly by skipping the actual recording of info so now i've designed a new worksheet.
The important info in my development has been keeping track of my trading mistakes. So my new w/s is 1 page which i should be able to list all trades for the week on and the main item i'm recording is mistakes. I'll print charts only when it provides a good example for future reference.
I also want to keep track of the # of trades i'm missing.
Rather than describe it further i'll just post a pic.
Comments or suggestions welcomed and appreciated. Thanks !
Today 8 trades -.75 Still making mistakes. Correcting them is my primary focus now. this is an improvement for me as before i was always focused on understanding entries. I'm not improving as quickly as i had hoped but will be happy with at least the little progress i am making.
Happy Turkey day traders ! I hope everybody enjoys their day off.
jasinhbca, I saw your P&L plots, I admire your analytical approach. The thoughts you share and the efforts you put in at reassessing the trading day and even the printouts you make, shows me that you truly want to learn it in a proper way. Let me attempt to redirect you to the right path because I believe that you are expending your focus on the wrong thing.
We are here to trade trends on a consistent basis by simply following them. At least I can see from your annotations that you are trying it but trade in a very intimidated way. The numerous trades you take and the little proceeds you get from them do hint that you have second thoughts and prefer to close a position before it may turn against you big time. Why is that so? While the market wiggles and you take a mini loss after another, an experienced trend trader has been staying in his position during the whole time. No action was taken at all, but yet the trend trader ends up with a more advantageous position than the one who is being assertive. That trader is convinced of his methods, his bias, his position, his stop, himself. Be more convinced of yourself. We need to acknowledge that markets do not move like elevators, but like waves within a current. Uptrends will always be interrupted by frequent sell-offs whereas downtrends will witness just as many rallies. What the trader has to focus on, is the overall current in the shape of trends because this tells you the path of least resistance.
To avoid fearful closing of positions, you need to know why you are opening the trade in the first place. What is your rationale for going long or short? I cannot help you with it because the entry is at everyone's discretion. What I can recommend is that you put a properly chosen stop level based on price action and let the market prove you wrong. Unless that happens, you must stick to your trade through wiggle and waggle. Hint: the stopout should happen where the original reason for your entry is no longer given due to objective observation of price action (not your gut feel). Make printouts of larger time frames than what you are currently looking at. You focus too much on the random moves intraday, than the actual trend in the broader perspective. Trade those, and you will witness far greater success. It is evident that a trader gets confused every single trading day anew. Randomness has no logic, so do not seek logic in randomness. Start looking at the forest for the trees. My favorite time frame is the 1H. I don't look at anything shorter term. Feel comfortable with holding your position over night, even several nights. It is a common misconception communicated among newbies that you must close your trade within the same day. Trends last more than a single day. They last multiple days to weeks, sometimes months. Why? Because public sentiment does not shift from one moment to the next but takes a long time.
Quote from Bombardier:
jasinhbca, I saw your P&L plots, I admire your analytical approach. The thoughts you share and the efforts you put in at reassessing the trading day and even the printouts you make, shows me that you truly want to learn it in a proper way. Let me attempt to redirect you to the right path because I believe that you are expending your focus on the wrong thing.
We are here to trade trends on a consistent basis by simply following them. At least I can see from your annotations that you are trying it but trade in a very intimidated way. The numerous trades you take and the little proceeds you get from them do hint that you have second thoughts and prefer to close a position before it may turn against you big time. Why is that so? While the market wiggles and you take a mini loss after another, an experienced trend trader has been staying in his position during the whole time. No action was taken at all, but yet the trend trader ends up with a more advantageous position than the one who is being assertive. That trader is convinced of his methods, his bias, his position, his stop, himself. Be more convinced of yourself. We need to acknowledge that markets do not move like elevators, but like waves within a current. Uptrends will always be interrupted by frequent sell-offs whereas downtrends will witness just as many rallies. What the trader has to focus on, is the overall current in the shape of trends because this tells you the path of least resistance.
To avoid fearful closing of positions, you need to know why you are opening the trade in the first place. What is your rationale for going long or short? I cannot help you with it because the entry is at everyone's discretion. What I can recommend is that you put a properly chosen stop level based on price action and let the market prove you wrong. Unless that happens, you must stick to your trade through wiggle and waggle. Hint: the stopout should happen where the original reason for your entry is no longer given due to objective observation of price action (not your gut feel). Make printouts of larger time frames than what you are currently looking at. You focus too much on the random moves intraday, than the actual trend in the broader perspective. Trade those, and you will witness far greater success. It is evident that a trader gets confused every single trading day anew. Randomness has no logic, so do not seek logic in randomness. Start looking at the forest for the trees. My favorite time frame is the 1H. I don't look at anything shorter term. Feel comfortable with holding your position over night, even several nights. It is a common misconception communicated among newbies that you must close your trade within the same day. Trends last more than a single day. They last multiple days to weeks, sometimes months. Why? Because public sentiment does not shift from one moment to the next but takes a long time.
Quote from Instynct:
Your psychological issues with trading might be because you don't have confidence in your plan and your ablility to read the market. It's a viscious cycle that feeds on itself if you don't get to the root of the problem. I've seen some of your past trades plotted on your charts but you don't give much reasoning for why you took them. Post wednesday's trades plotted on a chart and give detailed reasons why you took them. I'd like to throw some non-professional comments to them if I may. Then you can evaluate my comments and see if they help you down the line.
Bombardier,
Thank you for your time and suggestions. In regards to stops/exits, in the past i usually found that most of my winning trades go in my favor immediately with little heat. So now when a trade stalls soon after entry i get nervous. I also use close stops because most of my winning trades have MAE of less than 2 pts (my initial stop is 2.25, sometimes 3.00). This is something i need to continue to monitor and adjust. Jokepie has also suggested as you have that i stick with the trade as long as the reason , price action and proper stop placement, is valid. I believe this is my problem- overcoming my bias or need for immediate confirmation vs the reality of the way markets move.
The largest intra-day time frame i look at is a half hr chart. I'm not sure i'm ready to try trading on a larger time frame than the 5 and 1 minute charts quite yet. Interesting to think about though.
Thank you again for your thoughtful post. I have printed it out and will re-read i'm sure several more times.
Quote from Bombardier:
jasinhbca, I saw your P&L plots, I admire your analytical approach. The thoughts you share and the efforts you put in at reassessing the trading day and even the printouts you make, shows me that you truly want to learn it in a proper way. Let me attempt to redirect you to the right path because I believe that you are expending your focus on the wrong thing.
We are here to trade trends on a consistent basis by simply following them. At least I can see from your annotations that you are trying it but trade in a very intimidated way. The numerous trades you take and the little proceeds you get from them do hint that you have second thoughts and prefer to close a position before it may turn against you big time. Why is that so? While the market wiggles and you take a mini loss after another, an experienced trend trader has been staying in his position during the whole time. No action was taken at all, but yet the trend trader ends up with a more advantageous position than the one who is being assertive. That trader is convinced of his methods, his bias, his position, his stop, himself. Be more convinced of yourself. We need to acknowledge that markets do not move like elevators, but like waves within a current. Uptrends will always be interrupted by frequent sell-offs whereas downtrends will witness just as many rallies. What the trader has to focus on, is the overall current in the shape of trends because this tells you the path of least resistance.
To avoid fearful closing of positions, you need to know why you are opening the trade in the first place. What is your rationale for going long or short? I cannot help you with it because the entry is at everyone's discretion. What I can recommend is that you put a properly chosen stop level based on price action and let the market prove you wrong. Unless that happens, you must stick to your trade through wiggle and waggle. Hint: the stopout should happen where the original reason for your entry is no longer given due to objective observation of price action (not your gut feel). Make printouts of larger time frames than what you are currently looking at. You focus too much on the random moves intraday, than the actual trend in the broader perspective. Trade those, and you will witness far greater success. It is evident that a trader gets confused every single trading day anew. Randomness has no logic, so do not seek logic in randomness. Start looking at the forest for the trees. My favorite time frame is the 1H. I don't look at anything shorter term. Feel comfortable with holding your position over night, even several nights. It is a common misconception communicated among newbies that you must close your trade within the same day. Trends last more than a single day. They last multiple days to weeks, sometimes months. Why? Because public sentiment does not shift from one moment to the next but takes a long time.
Gmst,
Thank you also for your time and suggestions.
Quote from gmst:
very well written post, especially the last few lines.
Reduce your size and increase your timeframe....you will become profitable. I haven't read your journal, but let give an example. If you are trading ES, trade 1 contract for every 20k in account equity. Hold the positions for multiple hours, if required multiple days, put profit target at least 10 points and stops also around that level AND trade less. Take 2 trades in a week - to start off.....do this for next 10 weeks. After you are profitable for at least 5 weeks, then you can increase trading frequency. Good Luck.
P.S. There are three reasons why reducing your trade frequency and increasing stops/profits will improve your PL:
1. Your commissions will reduce. If currently, you are trading really frequently, it will have a huge huge impact on your Pl
2. By trading less, you will only take best quality trades, and ignore other lower probability trades. Will work wonders for your PL and your confidence in yourself.
3. By trading longer time frame trades, you will not trade randomness, rather trends that sustain themselves over multiple hours.
Quote from Bombardier:
jasinhbca, I saw your P&L plots, I admire your analytical approach. The thoughts you share and the efforts you put in at reassessing the trading day and even the printouts you make, shows me that you truly want to learn it in a proper way. Let me attempt to redirect you to the right path because I believe that you are expending your focus on the wrong thing.
We are here to trade trends on a consistent basis by simply following them. At least I can see from your annotations that you are trying it but trade in a very intimidated way. The numerous trades you take and the little proceeds you get from them do hint that you have second thoughts and prefer to close a position before it may turn against you big time. Why is that so? While the market wiggles and you take a mini loss after another, an experienced trend trader has been staying in his position during the whole time. No action was taken at all, but yet the trend trader ends up with a more advantageous position than the one who is being assertive. That trader is convinced of his methods, his bias, his position, his stop, himself. Be more convinced of yourself. We need to acknowledge that markets do not move like elevators, but like waves within a current. Uptrends will always be interrupted by frequent sell-offs whereas downtrends will witness just as many rallies. What the trader has to focus on, is the overall current in the shape of trends because this tells you the path of least resistance.
To avoid fearful closing of positions, you need to know why you are opening the trade in the first place. What is your rationale for going long or short? I cannot help you with it because the entry is at everyone's discretion. What I can recommend is that you put a properly chosen stop level based on price action and let the market prove you wrong. Unless that happens, you must stick to your trade through wiggle and waggle. Hint: the stopout should happen where the original reason for your entry is no longer given due to objective observation of price action (not your gut feel). Make printouts of larger time frames than what you are currently looking at. You focus too much on the random moves intraday, than the actual trend in the broader perspective. Trade those, and you will witness far greater success. It is evident that a trader gets confused every single trading day anew. Randomness has no logic, so do not seek logic in randomness. Start looking at the forest for the trees. My favorite time frame is the 1H. I don't look at anything shorter term. Feel comfortable with holding your position over night, even several nights. It is a common misconception communicated among newbies that you must close your trade within the same day. Trends last more than a single day. They last multiple days to weeks, sometimes months. Why? Because public sentiment does not shift from one moment to the next but takes a long time.
__________________
Go Chicago Bulls
You can make it to the Hall of Fame getting base hits or home runs... but you gotta protect the plate!
Patient traders obtain better prices than impatient traders do because they are willing to search longer and harder to arrange their trades at favorable terms. Impatient traders pay for the privilege of trading when they want to trade... Larry Harris, Trading & Exchanges.
...it was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should have showed the greatest profit... their experience matched mine... they made no real money. Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon... but it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. The market does not beat them they beat themselves because though they have brains they cannot sit tight! Reminiscences (V)
Instynct,
1 trade today. My secrets revealed
Not alot to analyze here. More next week.
iceman,
Rest assured my Mother did teach me manners and i have responded and thanked Bombadier and the others as well.
As far as my lack of success afer a year i'll forgo the discussion of objective goals and different measures of success and simply say, past performance is not neccesarily indicative of future results.
THANK YOU
Quote from iceman1:
This is one of the most astute missives I have read on ET in past 11 years.
Interestingly (so far) the OP did not even comment or thank Bombardier. Maybe he does not get it.
I think after ONE year of trading futures without any success the OP needs to re-think his plan and goals. This constant illusion that he is making progress is just that... an illusion. This is nothing more than I would say and have said to myself. I used to kid myself back in the 90s when losing or making little, that I was making progress - fighting the good fight. But in reality I was just gambling. The OP is doing the same.
I am only stating what I would tell myself, and have.
Further what Bombardier states, in the broader context, is the only way to trade reasonably successfully for most. This getting in and out every fricking minute or day never seemed to me (in futures) to be a paradigm for success except for the very very few (being it is so whimsical and random.)
Now over a longer time period within that day or week, as Bombardier infers, you can justify trading futures from a R/R point of view. Otherwise you are better playing Blackjack or craps.
Also what Instynct says is particularly true; it is a problem I have. I always wonder what I would say if some good traders from ET asked me in person about certain positions. Could I give a reasonable explanation as to why I entered and articulate a winning plan/scenario?! Many times I realize I could not!
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
iceman,
past performance is not neccesarily indicative of future results.
__________________
Go Chicago Bulls
You can make it to the Hall of Fame getting base hits or home runs... but you gotta protect the plate!
Patient traders obtain better prices than impatient traders do because they are willing to search longer and harder to arrange their trades at favorable terms. Impatient traders pay for the privilege of trading when they want to trade... Larry Harris, Trading & Exchanges.
...it was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should have showed the greatest profit... their experience matched mine... they made no real money. Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon... but it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. The market does not beat them they beat themselves because though they have brains they cannot sit tight! Reminiscences (V)
Many thanks, iceman1. That was quite an accolade. I'm amused about your comparisons to craps Sadly, it is true. Traders are too often deceived into false beliefs of consistency. The market is a master in tricking the average trader. If something cannot be told in words convincingly enough, let me illustrate my metaphor in a simple picture. Took me a little time, but I hope you get the idea even better with this. We are not bashing anyone, just here giving some precious advice that will help the rookie skip the hardship of massive losses. One important job of a mentor is to put a mirror in front of the trader to show what energy is put into relative insignificance in terms of the overall perspective.
See the forest for the trees.
With all due respect to Jas....You guys can preach all day long..., but newbies will be newbies. Then after enough pain, and screen time, they'll get it. If they're still into it, that is. But it seems like Jas has what it takes to make it, so good luck.
Schaefer
__________________
Easy does it, one stick at a time!
I don't know Jas but hey he's only been in the journal for 1 year. How long did it take the pros here to become profitable consistently? I'd say if he can't get it together after 5-8 years, then hound him. Even the most elite gurus here where people worshiped them to death and are always missed here have admitted to very painful beginnings and blew through their bank accounts except they didn't make journal entries about them. 95% of traders don't make it but I suspect it's because they get blown out in the beginning and give up. At least he's hanging in there unlike someone promoting and talking up un-tested products based on backtesting and paper trades.
Hopefully people won't be hounding me on my journal in a year or I can actually survive for that long.. LOL
I think it's easy for those who are used to making money to forget how tough it was and all the second guessing they did when they started. From the looks of his chart, he knows what he did wrong. Wasn't that trade a profitable one for him? As long as he was profitable. Looks like he missed some opportunities but they'll arise again. He just needs to be consistent and eventually mechanical with it.
Just my two cents.
Iceman,
Yes, it's a fine line between positive self talk and denial. If you're offering me a reality check then thank you (sincerely). i certainly do question my progress as well at times.
As far as changes; i'm always reviewing and keeping notes. Some of which end up in this journal, some don't. Suffice it to say i've got a list of areas to work on. Are they meaningful changes ? To me they are. We'll see.
Hmm, maybe next year if still no improvement then i'll just try trading like i play craps. With a Jack on the rocks instead of coffee.
Quote from iceman1:
with all due respect...
YES IT IS ! Unless you make a meaningful change - WHAT changes have you made in ONE YEAR??! I bet you cannot articulate any! But it usually takes most a long long time to accept that reality. Kind of like watching the show Intervention. Gotta suffer enough before you wake up from the illusion of addiction !
Just trying to help. But what do I know after 25 years.
Here is what you said over ONE year ago. Why have you not made it over the hurdle yet. The markets this year presented TONS and TONS of opportunities! Short Long and sideways! You could still be holding NQ and ES from a few months ago and still be profitable.
11-16-10 05:29 PM
"Hey Traders,
Like many i feel I'm close to becoming a more consistent , profitable trader. Still, i can't quite make it over the hurdle."
Bro, let me explain what gambling is to a trader:
It is making RANDOM rewards (gains) and then from that creating the delusion that this represents real progress! You get random rewards playing craps, too! But that does mean you know what the dice are going to do on any given roll!
Write that down.
Bombardier,
thank you again. Impressive chart both from a trading perspective and from a how-do-you-cut-and-paste-all-that ? perspective. Certainly swing trading has it's own set of hurdles; albeit on a less hurried time frame. Too soon for me to throw in the towel on this time frame but you've got me thinking.
Schaefer & Sfbayarea,
Thank you both for your post. Very much appreciated.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Bombardier,
thank you again. Impressive chart both from a trading perspective and from a how-do-you-cut-and-paste-all-that ? perspective. Certainly swing trading has it's own set of hurdles; albeit on a less hurried time frame. Too soon for me to throw in the towel on this time frame but you've got me thinking.
Schaefer & Sfbayarea,
Thank you both for your post. Very much appreciated.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
. With a Jack on the rocks instead of coffee.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Instynct,
1 trade today. My secrets revealed
Not alot to analyze here. More next week.
Hi Jas
Since we started trading about the same time, we may be at similar issues...
I can tell from some of the responses I have a long ways yet to go.
Where I'm at currently is breaking down my decison process.
I set up a spreadsheet with a 'why what where when how' down the side and my set ups going across. I am filling in the answers for each of my set ups. I've gotten it this far:
Why think about it this way, do this spreadsheet? To approach the possiblity of 'no losing days'... a concept NoDoji talked about.
First daily question I ask is 'What kind of trading day is it?' Trending, consolodating, or are my trade places in time like Econ reports? [in the spreadsheet I sort my set ups across the columns to fit the type of trading day, first my trending day setups, etc.]
then down the rows I continue with:
Where and when to enter. There are several things to sort thru here. First there is an area of interest... the set up.
Next each set up has a catch or trick or issue unique to it, to make it work. Like is it really a pullback in a trend?
To deal with the issue... I look for inviolable filters... high standard filters that can produce 'no losing days'. If they are not there, I don't take the trade.
Set ups often have optional confluence typical to that set up. Take note of them.
Then I specify the premise of the trade.
Then I look to where to place the stop... where it disproves the premise of the trade.
Then Where to place the Tgt... generally at the next S/R.
And is it a scalp, day, swing or open Tgt?
Having a stop and Tgt, is the R:R good?
Based on the above and my confidence... the confluence, etc., What is my position sizing?
Having done all the above, Then choices about
HOW to enter.
Limit
stop
braket
all in, all out, or fade in or out.... in all the combinations.
Next:
How to handle the trade not going as expected, choices:
Flat/scratch
widen stop (whoaaaaa)
move stop to lock in B.E. or a scalp
Trailing stop (and when to use, as in high volitility)
When to get out and reverse
How to handle the trade going as expected:
Exit at Tgt...all out or fade out?
Adjust stop and tgt?
Hit tgt, is there an immediate follow up trade?
......I realized I was making the above decisions in a hap hazzard manner, and applying them ...inapporpriately to various setups. Some choices were working for one set up but I couldn't figure out why they didn't work the next time I applied them to the next set up. **hair pulling and frustration... crys of 'wheres the consistancy!!** And of course some of the choices above I shouldn't be making at all.
By putting this in a spreadsheet and thinking about how this process of decision making... and the various choices fit or didn't to each set up going across the spreadsheet,
Some things became clear.
My sucess rate and consistancy has improved a lot.
I would guess that after awhile these decisions can be made in seconds. I'm sure there are other choices, these are just the one's I was commonly making.
This whole thing starts with the observation [based on a year of after hours analysis of each day] that I don't have to lose. Period. It is possible to have no losing days. Of course losing trades, but no losing days. I've heard several seasoned people on ET say can become the rule for you. I'm re-thinking everything in light of that. The above is a step in that direction...
Wish us all the best!
jas_
if you had held a ONE LOT position in NQ over the weekend - what would profit would you have today?
__________________
Go Chicago Bulls
You can make it to the Hall of Fame getting base hits or home runs... but you gotta protect the plate!
Patient traders obtain better prices than impatient traders do because they are willing to search longer and harder to arrange their trades at favorable terms. Impatient traders pay for the privilege of trading when they want to trade... Larry Harris, Trading & Exchanges.
...it was never my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should have showed the greatest profit... their experience matched mine... they made no real money. Men who can be right and sit tight are uncommon... but it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. The market does not beat them they beat themselves because though they have brains they cannot sit tight! Reminiscences (V)
LOL. Yeah there were plenty of buy signals on friday to get me into that gap open trade.
Quote from iceman1:
jas_
if you had held a ONE LOT position in NQ over the weekend - what would profit would you have today?
Thanks Instynct. Very good point.
Quote from Instynct:
After reading your notes on your chart, I think you are making a very big mistake to ignore the larger trend at work. Just because you are an intraday trader, that does not mean you can ignore them. I can tell you right now that the big money (or professional money as I like to call them) put their emphasis on the larger trends at work, not on the intraday action.
So first you need to understand market bias from the perspective of the larger trends. The 60 min and daily chart being the focus here. In the 60 min chart I hope it is quite clear to you that the trend, bias, whatever you want to call it, is down. If it's not clear to you, let me know and I can explain in more detail.
So in your long trade, you were playing against the trend, which is ok if you understand the need to get in early. But you got in after price had already ran up 40 handles and approaching resistance. Look at wednesdays action and tell me you don't see sellers stepping in at the 2183-2185 area. Then think about why your long trade is a losing proposition.
Now to those people that only trade the 60 min or longer time frames, thats great, I'm happy you guys are making money. But Jas has decided he wants to trade intraday, so if you don't have anything to say that will be helpful to his trading, why bother... I mean why try to force your own trading style onto someone else?
I'm using 5 & 10 min charts for setups and 1 minute for entries. It is fast and part of the process is learning not to chase trades if you miss them. That took me awhile to learn.
good trading to you.
Quote from sfbayarea:
Although, it may seem as though there are a lot more opportunities (ie quick money) in the 1 min time frame, it's harder to manage. Prices move too quickly. By the time you set up your limit order or get in your market order to exit, the price has already moved past or reversed. Unless you have a computer algorithm or you are extremely quick on the draw, I would recommend going to a higher time frame. That's just judging from my experience. But what do I know? I'm only 2 months in. LOL
Trading with Glen ? Celebrating some wins early ?
Cheers !
Quote from jokepie:
....I have done it with Glen (straight) ...it is strangely entertaining.
Hooti
Thanks for sharing. Are you using the w/s for trades you take or like ND logging all set ups after hours to gather stats and learn nuances ?
On postion size i'm using fixed contract per acct size. You may want to try it as well as varying position size based on set up just adds another decision to make. then look to add to winners . Just a thought.
Glad the w/s is helping and you're making progress.
Good trading to you
Just wanted to thank everybody again and add that although i'm ALWAYS looking to improve my entries my biggest problem now is trade management. Exiting too early; either a winner or before a trade has a chance to prove itself. It's a psych thing and probably the main reason why my results aren't stronger.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Hooti
Thanks for sharing. Are you using the w/s for trades you take or like ND logging all set ups after hours to gather stats and learn nuances ?
On postion size i'm using fixed contract per acct size. You may want to try it as well as varying position size based on set up just adds another decision to make. then look to add to winners . Just a thought.
Glad the w/s is helping and you're making progress.
Good trading to you
Instynct,
Any tips on the exit ? MFE +10 exit +2.75
I did not have a proper channel drawn which would have made an excellent target. Having missed that is there another better exit than my "crap, i blew it" exit.
60 minute (& daily) large saucer top 2280- 2380 area. The 60 minute trend looks like a pullback up into the top. Yesterday Hi taken out and strong resistance was taken out. So i'm biased a bit to long side up until 2250-2260 area or will short if start seeing weakness.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Instynct,
Any tips on the exit ? MFE +10 exit +2.75
I did not have a proper channel drawn which would have made an excellent target. Having missed that is there another better exit than my "crap, i blew it" exit.
60 minute (& daily) large saucer top 2280- 2380 area. The 60 minute trend looks like a pullback up into the top. Yesterday Hi taken out and strong resistance was taken out. So i'm biased a bit to long side up until 2250-2260 area or will short if start seeing weakness.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Instynct,
Any tips on the exit ? MFE +10 exit +2.75
I did not have a proper channel drawn which would have made an excellent target. Having missed that is there another better exit than my "crap, i blew it" exit.
60 minute (& daily) large saucer top 2280- 2380 area. The 60 minute trend looks like a pullback up into the top. Yesterday Hi taken out and strong resistance was taken out. So i'm biased a bit to long side up until 2250-2260 area or will short if start seeing weakness.
Can't seem to post your chart for some reason, lets try mine.
SF,
Don't believe the old saying 'you can't go broke taking a profit' . I need some medium/ large wins to pay for my losses.
But you are right about swinging for the fences. Problem is i've exited too many trades for small gains that then run another 20 points. Crazy biz. Still trying to find the balance there.
GL
Quote from sfbayarea:
You got a positive gain.. very often perfect exits and entries are tough to time. There will be other opportunities. My focus now is to try to get positive gains the vast majority of time. I take profits when I can get them. Be content. Don't swing for the fences. Let the singles add up. If you want to swing for the fences, then become a swing trader or a long term investor. I just don't do that because I want to sleep well at night. But then again, what do I know. From a rookie to a junior trader. LOL
Not wordy at all. I appreciate you taking the time and posting a chart.
Yes i agree the clues were in the box. I missed them or was locked into a belief.
You've given me some things to think about and some good tips.
Thank you.
'see ya' tomorrow.
Quote from Instynct:
Nice entry, I was looking at a long at that area too but hesistated because I wanted a slightly "better price" and ended up missing the whole move. One thing that will really help you is to stay consistent on how you draw your lines. Make it routine, don't wake up one morning and say ok I'm gonna trade off channels today and then the next day do something different. Draw them exactly the same way, each and every single day. The idea here is to eliminate as much ambiguity as you can from your chart tools. The market is chaotic enough, you don't need to add anymore confusion when you're trying to read price. So remember to draw all your lines exactly the same way everyday. And if you can't find a useful way to read price from these lines then find other methods. For me, I use the same set of horizontal lines and VWAP everyday, that's it. I just sit there and let price meander around these lines and tell me what it wants to do. Because I use so little tools in an effort to keep things simple, I rely a great deal on how price behaves around my lines. For example you see how price broke down below Prev HOD during the globex session, that tells me some things about price that I will take into account as I look for my setups and manage my trades. Also, I monitor ES closely as well.
Ok so about your exit. While there were clues in price that could probably get you out a bit sooner, all in all your exit was ok. At least you did not let it turn into a loser. You reference 10+ MFE, but there's no way you can get all that, so don't distract yourself too much with those stats. But if you look at what price did after it broke above the previous high of 2237.75, it consolidated a bit. I put a box around that consolidation in your chart attached. Here's the deal, if I was in your position and I was targeting 2250, I want to see price in a "hurry." I do not want to see it meander for too long. Basically what you saw in this box is the next round of buyers stepping up, but look at how weak they were, couldn't even test the high (2240.75). So the most I want to see price pull back is within this box, thats the most room I'm willing to give with my stop before I'm out. You have to understand that while you are long, there are participants that need to sell for a myriad of reasons, and they are waiting for the highest prices to sell. So when they see weakness in the buyers, which was evident in the box, then they will sell right away. It's important to looks at things from both a seller and buyers perspective, regardless if you are long or short.
Personally as a scalper, once price broke above 2238 I would've just closed in on my stop and take my profit. There's no need for me to hold on to my position just see to if price will go higher, while putting profits at risk. Take profits first, and ask questions later. There is ALWAYS a re-entry for me if price is indicating that it wants to head back up.
Sorry if my post is too wordy, its not easy for me to put this stuff in words.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Instynct,
Any tips on the exit ? MFE +10 exit +2.75
__________________
'Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,' Says the LORD.
DblArrow,
Sorry for not responding sooner and thank you. The little swing low makes sense too.
thanks & feel free to post here anytime.
jas
Quote from DblArrow:
I know not directed at me but...
Another thought on exits is to simply move your stop to below the previous swing low, in this case just below 2236 after the minor retrace then turn back up. Moving your stop to just below the stalled area just after your entry would ensure a positive trade.
Just another thought....of who knows how many.
No break throughs yet. Still mostly small winning days and losing days. Had a mini blow up week or so ago. Realized after the fact i was tired while trading.
You all know the saying.. a wise man learns from mistakes of others, a fool learns from his own. i'm still aspiring to become a fool. Made that trading while tired mistake several times. I think this time i got.
I've been working on holding trades longer. That was a big problem for me, exiting on slight pullbacks. I've kind of gone the to the other extreme and have held some marginal winners too long. Sometimes 3 pts is all the trade will have to offer.
Today i did have a trade that went +3.25 then pulled back to where i was -.25. PA said to stay in the whole time and was able to exit at +7.50 That's an improvement for me. Before i would have exited at +1 or something.
The next area i need to work on is taking more trades after my daily profit objective is reached. I'd like to get to the point where i'm making on average 5 pts a day. Today after 5 trades i was +5.75 so i wasn't looking as hard for trades. Probably looking more for reasons to stay out. But today was a good day to be more aggressive given the sell off. I need to be more focused on the trades and not being afraid of giving up profits.
But today was a good day to be more aggressive given the sell off. I need to be more focused on the trades and not being afraid of giving up profits.
Thanks RN,
My ego was very loudly asking me if i wanted to close + 5.75 or possibly only +3.75 today. To quiet my ego (or work with it) i need to focus and get satisfaction on process goals. A pat on the back for following my plan is all i should be striving for i suppose . If i can do that the results should be more than satisfactory.
Jokepie (another ET'er) has said focus on Power of Now. Be in the moment. Another way of saying just follow the plan !
not as easy for me to do it as it is to write it. But something must change within myself if i'm going to make it to the next level.
Hmmm.
thanks for getting me to think through this some more.
Quote from Redneck:
Really????
That is after the fact thinking…., and trading
What you should have done… and must do – is have a plan – then follow that plan to the letter
Never... or Ever – will we know what the day will be like – it always unfolds as it does
Which is why we must stay the course – by following our plan
Unless you’re fixin to fancy yourself a fortune teller – that is
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On another note;
Can’t argue with remaining focused… and patient… and disciplined
Nor would I
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As for giving up profits – that is a belief that does nothing but hamper you – may want to change it
We risk some to make some – and that’s all we do
Conversely
Profit ain’t profit - until..., and unless – it is withdrawn from the trading account
Until then it is simply too damn easy to risk it on a trade
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Always pick and choose your battles (trades) carefully – always
RN
Our brains can work better than ALgo's - the hell we write them !!
We sometimes fail/get emotional/can't follow our plan...and therefore mess up often. At the end of the day its our mind that we needto control. My excercise (and by no means I am perfect) is to get into the LOOP mode as I grab a position. just like any program. I also have a post-it with MY LOOP on it in case i get distracted.
At the beginning, i had to literally talk out loud "why am i going to do what I am about to do" - look at my post-it and won't get off my hands (under my Butt) untill my loop demands Exit.
LOOP is just a Hypothesis - a simple Entry/ Exit logic.
Power of now just help me realize that at any moment any Chart is just as static as a Daily chart. If i can read and act on a daily I should be able to do it on a 1 min chart as well. I just have to be faster, focussed and less distracted.
And man, what can i say about experience. i rememebr my first job, 3 months into it. I thought i can do what my VP does. what the hell !!! ... 6-7 yrs later i know I was an idiot to think that way. So who here is struggling - stay focussed, find a real successful mentor, learn and just stick around (long enuf )!!!!!!!!
Guru
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Took some time off during the holidays. A much needed rest. Feel more focused now.
Traded 2 days this week. Still getting my traders mind back on and it's a little fuzzy.
My big problem which i'm working on is that set ups aren't always clear to me. Goes with the job description of a discretionary price action trader, perhaps.
For example , is it a breakout pullback or a failed breakout. Or as i'm learning maybe it's a weak breakout that will just consolidate below the B/O point. i know the clues to look for, like whats the bigger picture trend, how far did price breakout, volume, how fast did it pullback. The ambiguity of set ups is what i'm working on. I accept the idea of uncertainty of trade outcome but i need to get in my head that the decision process must be more certain.
i continue to review set ups through out the day that i miss and take notes. i'm also going to spend more time reading Brooks' PA book.
Going forward i'm entering my busy season at work. i don't expect to do any trading during feb, march and april. (maybe a little in feb ) I am concerned that the skill of reading PA must be continually practiced and being away from the markets may set me back some. My plan will be to at least review post market charts. Actually i will be able to watch some action during the day but not with the focus i'd like. I may set up the market replay also.
I pulled up my trade plan today and did my annual review and 2012 goals.
That's where i'm at currently.
I'd like to thank all of you who have taken the time to offer me advice , suggestions and encouragement this past year. i wish you all a healthy and profitable 2012 !
OMG this is slow action today.
Been researching new guitar amps to keep me from making stupid trades. Mostly worked. 2 trades that didn't work this time (small losses) but ones i would take again.
This year i will be choosing an area of study each month to focus on. This month i've chosen to study failed break outs (2B entries)
I'm collecting and analyzing chart examples and writing up notes/clues/rules on taking w/ trend 2B's and counter trend 2B's.
Also comparing a failed breakout vs a breakout pullback
So far so good. I'll also be reading A Brooks and others on this topic as well.
I've done this kind of study in the past but believe now after hours of screen time i'm picking up more clues. Also staying focused on just one entry rather than collecting info on many set ups is reinforcing some key points.
Not sure what the others months study area will be. Continuing on to break out pullback and break out entries would be logical next.
Been awhile since i've posted some charts/trades so i'll throw a couple up here.
I'm finding the January action slow and a little difficult to trade. VIX has been trending down.
My first short was not an ideal entry and then i exited about when it turned lower. I had taken as much HEAT (edit: for word left out) as i was willing to. I did stay calm and patient and saw a reason to re-enter short and i'm happy with how i stayed focused.
I exited that short based on a measured move and a resting buy order. Exit was at 2437 and price eventually went to 2422 with minor pullbacks. Not frustrated at all though which is an improvement over the past. The error is either relying on measured move as a target or not finding a re enter spot. I think it's the latter.
here's a chart, more to follow
next 2 trades short around a resistance area.
Too early on the first but then re -entered. 2nd trade had MFE of 5 then had a quick retrace. exit for -.25
Failed to exit at a logical target but i was trying to give the trade more time as trend was still down. I had an Elliot Wave count heading lower which helped get me in the trade but was of no help in taking profits. I don't generally trade off EW but sometimes the waves just seem so obvious i'll trade them.
(i posted some charts in Snowriders thread last week and today)
Trailing my stop tighter probably would have been a smart thing.
ended +3.75 today . Although i could have had alot more i mostly traded by my guide lines i've established for myself so i have no regrets. At the same time i'm always looking for ways to improve so i look at the review process with that in mind as well.
Lastly, i scratched my trade review process i previously wrote about. this month i've been printing a chart of every trade and making notes on the chart and on a trade worksheet i have. It takes more time and generates lots of paper but for me it's the most effective review process.
I'm back.
Today i opened my Ninja trading platform for the first time since January. I've been working my real job (taxes) six days a week and have had absolutely no time for any trading or study.
Over the next week i'll be easing back in to trading. Reviewing my trading plan , my notes, charts and set ups. By May i'll be ready to trade with the proper focus and attention required.
This is the year i will get my trading to the next level - consistent profits and increased size. If not i've considered hiring a mentor. Honestly, though i think i have the knowledge within me and that a mentor would only provide hand holding. We'll see.
Enjoy your weekend traders !
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
I'm back.
Today i opened my Ninja trading platform for the first time since January. I've been working my real job (taxes) six days a week and have had absolutely no time for any trading or study.
Over the next week i'll be easing back in to trading. Reviewing my trading plan , my notes, charts and set ups. By May i'll be ready to trade with the proper focus and attention required.
This is the year i will get my trading to the next level - consistent profits and increased size. If not i've considered hiring a mentor. Honestly, though i think i have the knowledge within me and that a mentor would only provide hand holding. We'll see.
Enjoy your weekend traders !
Thanks CL !
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Dealing with ambiquity is a big part of the traders learning curve.
Today i stalked a trade for awhile waiting to see which way it would break. My bias was to the upside and PA clues were there confirming but i failed to act. (about 10:00 am 2705 level)
I think it comes down to lack of confidence in my ability to read price. For a discretionary trader the set up was pretty clear.
On one hand i feel i'm missing a piece of the the puzzle that will confirm the entry and on the other hand i think , as i said, i just need to have confidence (and balls) and take the trade.
Been reviewing and watching this week. First actual trading day in awhile. Initial thought was i'm just a little out of practice. Maybe. I need to reframe my self talk and and analysis so i'm taking these trades.
Good to be back.
No focus today for some reason. Tired i suppose. Frustrating as there were lots of good opportunities but i just wasn't reacting quick enough.
My exits have been less than ideal this week. Too focused on target and not current PA. Exited a couple trades too early on minor pullbacks and held a couple trades too long instead of exiting at logical S/R area. Trying to remain calm and objective when in the trade going forward.
There was also a sense of so much focus entering trade that i then relaxed and became too much of a spectator.
Trade results so far this week attached.
Just here to learn, as a fellow student, so my comments are observations and not critique:
Checked your yesterday's trades on a 5M chart and you had 3 trades.
The first long was a counter trend long after a wide range body (WRB) candle and no double bottom, or higher low, so may be not a high probability entry, although the low of 05/02 was close. Were you bottom picking? Looking at the 1min chart, it was a decent entry, but the price clearly reversed around the 5m 20ema. May be a good target for your counter trend trade. Did you get a short signal on the 1m after that (same as your long may be) reversal?
The two shorts were kind of late in the trend for what I prefer, during/after the third push down, again not the highest probability.
At least you did not lose on them.
CL, your comments are always welcomed and appreciated !
On the long trade i was seeing the 9:30 5 min bar as a 2B buy signal. Fined tuned the entry off the 1 minute. When it failed to quickly take out a res level i exited. I saw that sell signal a few minutes later but just didn't have my head in the game yesterday.
I think i was aware the shorts were late in the trend which is why i exited pretty quick when they didn't produce bigger gains immediately.
Thank you for taking the time to look and comment !
Quote from clightmarathon:
Just here to learn, as a fellow student, so my comments are observations and not critique:
Checked your yesterday's trades on a 5M chart and you had 3 trades.
The first long was a counter trend long after a wide range body (WRB) candle and no double bottom, or higher low, so may be not a high probability entry, although the low of 05/02 was close. Were you bottom picking?
The two shorts were kind of late in the trend for what I prefer, during/after the third push down, again not the highest probability.
At least you did not lose on them.
1st full week back trading; -4.50 pts
Missing trades is leading to taking higher risks set ups. Today 1st trade was good. Then I got too conservative and missed a trade i was waiting for. Long story short went from +4.75 to +.75 for the day on 3 trades. Should have been an easy + 10 day.
I'm missing pullback entries at S/R in the bigger trend. Happened a few times this week. I can't wrap my head around the idea that the trigger may just be a stall at the S/R level. If the turn happens quick then i wait , and miss, 'cause it feels like i'm chasing. This is what i'm working on figuring out and fixing.
chart attached of first 2 trades
sTEEL cABLES....
wELCOME BACK... gl
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
sTEEL cABLES....
wELCOME BACK... gl
Usually my daily goal is to just focus on taking good set ups and exits and not worry about the daily PnL. This week i decided my goal would be to be profitable every day. With lots of luck- so far so good. Even if the gains are small.
The drawback to this is that after getting my acct to the plus side for the day i'm not inclined to continue trading. I'm missing some good trades doing this.
My percentage of winning trades is too low, about 30%. This indicates to me i'm not taking the best set ups. I expect around 45% winning trades and would like to eventually get to the 50 -60% range. For now, just continuing to take it one step at a time.
My in-trade management of the winners has improved fortunately and let me pull out some decent wins to offset the losses. This is a big deal to me. I'm trading more calmly and sitting through normal pullbacks whereas last year i was frequently exiting just to preserve a gain on pullbacks.
I'm using exit targets via a placed order on most trades now where before i was trying to hold for a possible homerun too often. This has helped lock in solid gains instead of hoping a level will be taken out for more gains.
Tomorrow i trade from home so pnl screen shot from this computer for mon -thurs.
Still lots i need to work on and learn.
Damn. I didn't have a good feeling going in today. Attitude is everything and i need to bring it every day. Confidence and patience.
-7.50 pts today, +5.25 for the week.
Taking trades late in the trend, bad stop placement, bad reads. Amateur mistakes IMO.
I'm currently reading Trading on Target by Toghraie. Think I'll go spend some time with that now. I'm likely going to purchase her study course. I was waiting till my price reading skills improved a bit and then take her course to really get to the next level. Maybe i won't wait.
Looking over todays chart all the normal PA clues and reads are there. Always easy after the fact but they're all things i normally look for.
Next weeks goals will be to be profitable for the week, to come in with a confident attitude every day and to look to act in the price areas i should be trading and not hesitate. Simple.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Damn. I didn't have a good feeling going in today. Attitude is everything and i need to bring it every day. Confidence and patience.
Thanks CL. I've been reading it and admire his professional approach to trading. I'll give it another look from the beginning. Don't think my wife will let me emulate his life outside of trading.
Have a good weekend and thanks again.
My goal this week was to approach each trading day rested , focused and with a positive attitude. Seems that i should be doing this all along but i've noticed there are days when i trade despite not being in the proper state of readiness.
Part of the attitude i'm trying to develop is the mindset of confidence in my abilities each day as well as to not think about previous days losses.
I've also cut back on my alcohol during the week. Only beer or a glass of wine and not everyday. Not that i'm an alcoholic but this is somewhat of a lifestyle change for me. I'm sleeping better too.
So, my goal was met for the week. I felt good each day. Had good focus & no stress.
Results weren't what they should have been. 27 trades and
-1.75 pts. Tons of opportunities but missed them for various reasons.
Several times i was in a move too early. I would get stopped out or exit then take a break or review then miss the next chance at the same trade. Some trades i miss due to uncertainty of price action.
Oh, here's another example. In the overall down trend I was shorting pullbacks (or trying to). Sometimes i would sell at resistance then end up exiting as the market chopped around then turned lower. I find it's a fine line between picking a top and getting the right pullback entry. Waiting for a lower high can increase the probablity but some of the reversals happen quickly with no LH. This is what i'm studying now and what i paid the market (more my broker) this week to learn. I think it was a fair deal.
Next week my goal will be to again come in each day rested, confident and focused. I also want to push myself to take more of my set ups.
Cheers traders ! Tonight is Martini night !
Yes, Still here.
I increased my # of monitors, but then every hour or two all of them would go black/blank. So after a week or two of in and out of the shop, the computer guys say the new graphics card is bad and have ordered another. But, whew, this has been hard on my trading. And I have a lot to learn yet even under the best of circumstances.
So I am trading limited hours off my laptop... and have taken the time to read Mark D's 'trading in the zone' with much more time for thought than the prior 2 or 3 times I've read it. I realize I cut corners with his exercise and am going back now and re-doing his exercise with all the consciousness I can at this time. It's making a world more sense than before. --laughing-- of course, that may be because I'm actually doing it. Still have not reached 20 trades in a row yet, but on track to do so this week. This is cool. For example, Two losses in a row and I start doing other things related to trading, but not actually placing trades... Once I started seeing that pattern.... and understanding possible reasons why... Now I'm moving forward again. This is working. So having this time is a gift.
Well, I guess I was put off posting in Et when NoD left. She talked to me once on the phone and I still draw strength from that conversation. I'm even trading CL now... finally!
But I do find Xpurts insights and attitude helpful. His 'emotional TL's' I find often accurate and useful, among other things. So time may heal and will post more as it makes sense.
I've looked at this tread also a time or two to see how you are doing... glad you are here, all the best.
Hooti,
Thanks for the update and well wishes. Feel free to post a CL chart here if you ever get the urge. I'm curious about CL but will stick w/ NQ for now.
I'm using one monitor. When i get around to buying a longer cable i'll try two. Right now i flip around to different charts. It would be nice to have some higher TF's off to the side to check on at a glance.
About your comment of not taking trades after two losing trades. I have the same problem at times. In fact even after winning trades. I just wrote a note to myself to look to re-enter trades;trend persist. My understanding is that the brain when faced with indecision will look for an excuse to not have to make a decision. So we take a break at the wrong time or find some other distraction. Learning to accept indecision &/or having a well understood trading plan can help. That's my take on it.
Good luck w/ your trading !
This trade is worth posting i think. Pullback in trend.
I did not feel comfortable entering and questioned myself after filled. In general though i think it's a good entry. And not just because it worked this time.
Sell is at far right edge.
next post will have the exit
The exit.
Trades like these i'd love to be able to scale out of. LOD was a logical target to exit which i did not take.
Overall pleased with my entry and for holding as long as i did. I gave it every chance to go lower and exited based on a decent read of PA.
Nice trades!
After the second lower peak you could took the same type of trade as the first one
Was there a reason you did not take the signal?
(edit: actually that would have been my preferred place, due to the double top)
Thanks Cl !
Are you speaking of the Dbl Top around 8:20 ?
If so, I was on a break answering email. Did see it after the fact. dang.
Yes that one.
Today i was tired so i was looking for excuses to avoid trades. Too bad as there were lots of opportunities.
Even on my fully rested and ready days i miss too many good trades. I think this comes from my practice of trying to not over trade. When i began trading I tried to limit myself to 3 trades a day. My thougt then was i would learn to only take the best set ups. That was fine for then but now i think i need to change my mindset and take whatever the market has to offer.
I should view overtrading as taking forced or invalid set ups. As long as the set ups are there i need to jump on them.
Not a good week. -19.25 pts. Primarily due to poor results on Mon & Tues.
Biggest problem i see is i'm not capturing the bigger trends of the day. Too many trades just flat out not taken or missed and several trades exited too early. My win rate is too low, IMO, at 35%
Next week i plan on continuing to come in rested and focused each day. To take less breaks during first 2 1/2 hours and to make sure i'm not skipping trades because i'm feeling uncertain.
One postive thing i did this week was to enter some trades as a limit order around a pullback area. Usually i just go market which frequently occurs as the move is already underway. It felt strange to have a sell order above the market. I was concerned that the market would move higher ,fill and keep going higher. Happily i got some great fills this way. In the right areas i think this can be a pretty effective way to get in with lower risk.
last week -11 pts
this week + 18.25
mon -11
tues +11
wed +2.5
thurs +6
fri +9.75
Thurs had a -5 DD on about 6 trades but was able to stay focused and close out w/ a +11 trade
Today a profitable long and short. Looking at higher TF i was expecting the market to turn lower. Instead it kept grinding higher and i stayed out. I remind myself i'm not trying to catch every move but to trade what i see and make money every day. So, no complaints for today.
Overall my best week in awhile. I think all my screen time is beginning to pay off and is helping me to understand my set ups better and incorporate higher TF's better. I hope so anyway.
I've never been convinced in the utility of fib tracements but lately i've been looking at 50% retracements and finding that helpful. Another tool i'll likely keep using.
dang. -2.00 points
mistakes: Not paying enough attention to higher TF, hesitiating at numbers, trading scared.
Mostly decent entries but mismanaged.
I really want to keep the momentum going from last week.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
dang. -2.00 points
mistakes: Not paying enough attention to higher TF, hesitiating at numbers, trading scared.
Mostly decent entries but mismanaged.
I really want to keep the momentum going from last week.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Also, higher TF is nice to have but keep it 3/4 time the trading time frame not more or less than that.
But again you have to find your sweet spot.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
dang. -2.00 points
mistakes: Not paying enough attention to higher TF, hesitiating at numbers, trading scared.
Mostly decent entries but mismanaged.
I really want to keep the momentum going from last week.
thanks JP. Trading scared today. After that last trade i threw in the towel on the day. I agree, 45 degree = strong trend and almost any entry will work. I've got notes and examples on this in my notebook.
180 reversal seems like it might be a little late for my style but i'll keep an eye on it.
Believe it or not i feel like a much better trader than last year. I, mostly, see things better and trade calmer. Now to only back it up w/ positive results.
Thank you !
Quote from jokepie:
Try this one more time
FLAT CABLE = No action i.e if in a trade do nothing, do not add/close or open new positions
Cable at almost 45 deg. = Enter fear lessly, ignore numbers, add if follow through while/ only if PnL is positive.
Close ONLY when Cable reverses by almost 180 deg.
Apologies for repeating this all again.
GL
Thanks tihfa !
I'll take a look at that.
Quote from tihfa:
fwiw...just add 20, 60, 100 EMAs with 60 and 100 being the higher timeframe trend and then btw 20 and 60 use that as a pullback or congestion breakout area...use 10ema as a trailing stop once the price unfolds in direction of primary 60,100 trend
Well, i sound like a broken record. Or is the phrase nowadays a broken ipod ?
Trading scared again. Plus I get down a few points then start looking to just book any profit. Ended up missing a nice run because of that today. Then i see how close i was to catching the trades i start overtrading . Traded way too much today in chop.
14 trades. - 11.25 pts
I'm finally starting to really understand the importance of psychology. The edge in my trading , if there is going to be one, is not simply the rules to enter and exit but the combination of system and ability to follow it. I've been spending most of my time studying price action thinking that if i understand it just a little better trading will be easy and profitable. The thing is, i think i know what i should be doing - i just need to do it. Trading is simple but not easy, right ?
At the same time the question i ask myself is am i really making progress or am i just fooling myself by believing i am ? (I'm sure there are a few ET'ers that have an opinion on that.)
It's probably a good time for me to take another break from posting for awhile. The repetition of me pounding my head against the wall is not exactly where I intended this journal to go.
Hopefully i'll be back soon with postitve updates.
Last chart for awhile.
Quick update. Still plugging along. +15.75 NQ points this week and profitable 4 of 5 days. I've had a few weeks like that and a few where i just blow up and lose 20 NQ pts in a day.
I've finally come to the conclusion and belief that if i am rested, focused and calm then i can make money nearly every day. It's the days when i force and overtrade that are causing the avoidable and large losses.
Now, this week, throughout my trading day I focus on how i'm feeling; frustrated, tired, angry, focused etc. If i'm frustrated , for example, then i take a break and question myself as to why and try to work through it. Basically acknowleding the feelings, try to return to a calm focused state and caution myself to be patient and wait for set ups. Most days i'm calm and focused through out the day with out any issues. I believe if i continue to do this i 'll see managable losing days and more profitable days.
Once i get a bit more consistency then i'll increase to 2 contracts and scale out of one at + 4 points. Based on reviewing my results i generally end up with more profits over what i'm doing now. So even though my losses are twice as big on losing trades it's more than made up for by locking in some 4 point gains. This week that strategy would have resulted in + 31.25 pts. I haven't switched to doing this yet because the bad weeks would have turned in to absolutely horrible weeks. Scaling up is my incentive to staying calm, focused and consistent.
I've started meditating again. I think it helps.
Oh, the other problem i'm working on is that i become too cautious after i book , for me, decent profits. Yesterday i was up 6 pts after 2 trades and i ended up passing on other good trades. i'll figure that one out eventually.
Next week only trading a few days then leaving on vacation for a week.
Update:
Week ending: 7/20/12 + 9.25 pts
: 7/27/12 Vacation in Oregon. 8 nights. Beautiful State.
This past week 8/3 -14.50 pts
Looks like it's going to take more than calm focus to book some profits.
My exits continue to be a problem for me. Yesterday for example 1 trade with MFE of 3 closed for a -.50 loss, another MFE of 3.75 closed -1.25, another MFE 8.50 closed at + 5.75. (That last one i can probably live with.) I do not have a set strategy about moving stops to BE. Seems pretty basic that i should have one.
In the past I've talked about trading 2 contracts and automatically exiting 1 at +4. I'm starting to realize this is not likely going to work. What i do think will work is entering with 2 contracts and exiting 1 at the first price stall or after a quick large move. So rather than a fixed 4 pt target, exit based on PA. So maybe i can lock in some of the 3 pts gains and then exit the other at worse BE or hopefully larger profits. I'm almost certain that for my style and my psychology i need to scale out of trades.
Thursday i had a nice sell entry that was + 7.50 after 1 minute so i exited to book profits. I know that a strong move like that should have continuation but i felt i've seen too many profits reverse on me. That trade was a perfect example where scaling out would have worked well. I could have easily made another 10 pts and if i was even more patient 20 more pts.
I also know about myself that i am holding some trades too long hoping for more gain so that i can make up prior losses faster. The first step in solving a problem is being aware of it. That's where i'm at on that.
Re-reading myself it sounds like I need more defined exits rules. Going forward i'll be working on that, working on continued calm, focused trading and looking to soon add another contract in order to scale out.
I have some other thoughts on the traders learning curve which i may post tomorrow.
Week end 8/10/12 -.75 NQ pts
Last week +13.75 pts
Tried a couple trades last week entering with 2 contracts as i've talked about. It's not the magic solution to getting great exits but i still think it will offer the opportunity for better trade management by scaling out.
Here's my beliefs/thoughts on the traders learning curve:
When I started my public journal I thought there would come a time when after a period of study and screen time I would have a trading epiphany. I would overnight go from losing to consistent wins. I wanted to be able to document that a-ha moment that has eluded me for years. Now I believe there will be no magic moment of clarity. That’s O.K. My belief now, and has been for a while, is that learning to trade is a process of gradual improvement. (That is, as long as I am reviewing and making notes and not just passively watching the screen.)
A few years back I was trying to learn, for me, a difficult guitar part. (The intro to Johnny B. Goode). I‘d practice the 7 second intro very slowly at least 50+ times a day. I figured that after a week I would gradually work it up to speed and be able to play it easily. Nope. Got it right only about 60% of the time. About that time I read on a guitar website that it can take several months of practice for the brain to build the neural pathways needed to play something consistently correct. I kept practicing and gradually i got better. After a couple months I was able to play it almost every time without mistakes.
So, that’s kind of how I’ve viewed trading. There’s the time needed to learn the actual mechanics and the time needed to internalize that information. There may be physiological limitations as to how quickly one can do the latter. I don’t know if this is completely accurate but this belief does reduce my occasional frustration and gives me the patience to persevere. I’ll also add that I believe trading is more difficult to learn given the emotions involved and the uncertainty of the markets.
Maybe next year my beliefs will change but for now the path is, study and practice, study and practice, over and over again. I fully expect this will lead to continued gradual improvement and greater profits.
There will be many A-ha moments !
Just like the guitar episode, it needs time... think of a pilot with first cert. of a single engine plane ... gotta put up hours before a Boeing 747.
I remember a quote from reminiscences of a stock operator :
"When you learn what not to do, you begin to learn what to do."
There are many jewels in that book, I recommend it for the 6th and the 7th read... can't make it clearer than this.
GL.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
I remember a quote from reminiscences of a stock operator :
"When you learn what not to do, you begin to learn what to do."
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Thanks JP.
Kind of like, "Do more of what works and less of what doesn't".
Good advice.
I've read Reminiscences twice years ago. I actually don't own the book so i'll buy a copy and read through it again.
I'm currently reading Schwager's latest; 'Hedge Fund Market Wizards'
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jokepie:
http://www.alibris.com/booksearch?q...s*listing*title
you can get a copy for 99cents; and if you search the net for pdf copies you may get lucky as well.
This time when you read it. write down all the quotes/ his learning in word doc or paper. so you don't have to go back and do re-reads.
+4.75 pts this week, which puts me down about 30 bucks after commissions. Mostly trading 2 contracts every time now.
Tues & Wed were negative days for me. First time in a few weeks i've had two losing days in a row.
Thurs i had problems with Ninja Trader so only 1 trade. I spent hours sending emails and waiting for responses. Pretty much a wasted day. Got 1 of the problems resolved this a.m. after Support phoned me. The fix for missing data was easy and IMO should have been resolved much sooner. Oh well, overall great product and support in general i'd still consider very good.
Volatility picked up a little this past week which i think may have thrown me off a bit on tues & wed. Today my focus slipped away mid-day. Literally, slipped away. One moment i'm focused and reading action, next i'm a spectator in a trance saying let's give this trade a bit more time.
Mistakes: Exits. I'm losing objectivity in trades. I'm now aware confirmation bias is keeping me in trades too long. I'm either holding on for more gains or watching a trade thats +/- a few ticks turn into a stopped out trade. For example , i'm seeing logical areas/signs to exit but I start thinking maybe it's just a pullback.
Another mistake is i'm becoming too cautious after a profitable trade. Thurs before i contacted support there were more trades i should have taken.
Mostly i'm pleased with my progress. i think i need to raise my expectations of myself and begin booking larger weekly profits.
Focus is the key.
Quiting early today - pre holiday and all.
+8.25 pts for week but down about $ 30 again after commish.
Tues was only losing day at -16 pts.
All trades 2 contracts except for today. From a psych standpoint i'm comfortable trading 2 cars and dealing with the larger intraday drawdowns. Being able to scale out has made trade management less stressfull at times. But scaling out is not the quick fix to more profits. I still have same problems with exits of holding too long. The result of "Hope" trading. Really this should be easy to fix.
Tuesday was weird in that i felt completely out of synch. Not good for the confidence. In reviewing my notes now i wrote that IF i had cut some loses quicker , a few trades that just hung around BE that ended full stop, and taken a some small profits on stalled trades i could have been down 5 pts for the day. Of course, playing What IF only works if i can learn from it.
Guess that's it for now.
I'm playing golf today. I pretty much stopped playing about 10 years ago 'cause i'm such a lousy player. But it'll be nice to get out and get some fresh air and hang with some friends. And likely about 120 opportunities to practice moving from one bad "trade" to the next with calm focus.
In spectacular fashion i was zero pts for the week. - $ 155 in commish.
tues + 21 pts. best day ever. finally making progress !
wed -6.50
thurs +7.25 back on track . i can do this. (wasn't trading first hour and a half so missed alot of the upmove. i was happy to get the +7.25)
fri -21.75 pts what the hell are you doing ?!
traded in chop today. Trying to force the market to give me money to close the week really strong. The market wouldn't budge and it won.
The only way i can keep pushing on and staying motivated is to look at the positive things i'm doing. 9 weeks ago i started keeping better records. In the past i was more concerned wih focusing on learning my setups , exits and studying price action. Now it's about measurable performance. For the 9 weeks my acct is down $ 170. I'm pretty certain that is my lowest drawdown compared to similar periods. Last year i was rarely covering commissions for the week. So, that's a positive in my mind. That'll keep me studying and ready to come back next week.
Everyday i jot down some notes on my mood. Am i focused, rested, anxious , eager ? Today i didn't do it. Forgot ? I guess so. Not sure how i missed that. Anyway not sure if that has anything to do with the losses today.
that's mostly it. I still believe if i can come in everyday calm and focused and PATIENT that i'll be able to have consistent positive results.
if i was the kind of guy that breaks keyboards , today would be the day. Might take it out on my liver later on. Moderately.
-60 pts this week. Especially frustrating because i came in to the week with great expectations. trading 2 cars this week blew up on me.
I could not read the market this week. I don't know what happened. set ups i normally take i passed on then chased.
i've got that goddam traders tightness in the chest and knot in the stomach.
Had projects at work that needed to get done so didn't have as much calmness and review time as i would have like.
the good thing is that when i did review the trades i see the mistakes and the set ups i should have taken. Again these are things i've usually seen fine in real time lately. I was a different trader this past week. that's what bothers me the most.
i will be reviewing and making notes this weekend. I expect set backs but still.
I was caught in the circle of being frustrated , realizing frustration leads to poor trading, getting calm, more bad trades then back to frustrated.
Anyway there are worse problems to have in life. i will get past this. I'm in it for the long haul.
This is the process and i'm pretty sure it's not unique to me. So, next week, new opportunities and back to 1 contract trades for a bit.
Still in a drawdown last week. My thought is that the low volatility is part to blame plus some impatient and bad trades on my part. The vix is currently around 14. I'd guess a better trading environment for me would be a vix above 16 or 17 at least. Just guessing.
Last week i decided to look at different instruments. I took a few trades in 6E. Made a little $. Not sure the time this actively trades and way it trades is right for me. I started looking at CL. Very interesting. I'm going to sim this one a bit. Not sure what stops and targets i should start with.
I also started the process of re-writing my trading plan to incorporate what i've learned over the past 2 years and consolidate alot of the notes i've taken. Most of the set ups should remain the same but i want to have more specifics. For example entering a pullback in a strong trend vs weak trend. A strong trend a break out entry can and should work immediately. A weak trend i'll look for a simple or complex pullback and a trigger to enter or the Traders trick entry technique. Defining a weak vs strong is still subjective but i've got guidlines that may become more rigid. This kind of differentiation is not in my original plan.
I'll be leaving for Cabo this week so not much trading or updates until 2nd week of October.
the past two weeks i've traded CL. one day in sim, the rest Live.
net after commish. first week +$ 179
this week + $ 248
So far CL trades a bit different than NQ. True breakouts work very quickly and provide good R:R. I don't face the uncertainty about whether i should chase these moves. I'm either in or i'm not.
Trading CL has given me a shot of optimism after spending the past few months churning in the low volatility NQ. Even if NQ begins to pick up i may not go back to it. At least not right away. Always flexible though.
I view the past 2 weeks as, at best,moderately successful. There are several things i need to improve on.
1. I become too conservative after a modestly winning trade and often stop trading. For example, Thursday i was -7 ticks after first trade then 2nd trade made +40. Pleased with the nice gain i half-heartedly continued to watched and failed to take several more good trades. I think this has less to do with my familiarity with CL and more to with me not having the proper traders mind or a plan with enough details.
2 Missing trades. A combination of unfocused or unsure. CL moves quickly and it magnifies my weaknesses. I like it because of that. I need to, still, better understand my set ups and come up with a procedure list to get me to focus on the important action so i can anticipate my set ups.
Basically, look left and pay attention to context is the starting point. Triggers. Am i going to use a resting order to enter on a break out or enter earlier at market ? I do both but need to spell this out more clearly.
3 Trade review. I need more of it.
Despite any profits i may make, until i get these issues resolved i will not be comfortable with my progress. The quest continues..
Hey Jas
Good to see your posts. Thanks for your honest putting-it-out-there. It has encouraged me. And we did start trading about the same time.
I switched to CL back in March. No regrets, hope you like it also. I do believe that NoD said it likely takes 6 - 9 months to really get a feel for CL... but it's worth it.
You mention 'trade review'. I started taking screen shots... I call it a 'decision log'. With just a few notes on the screen shots. At the end of the day I put them in a word document and can look back and see decisions the 'hard right edge'. That in and of it self I've found very helpful. Much better than printing out the chart at the end of the day and reviewing it.
I go on and do more work and separtate the screen shots of actual trades... a separate word document for each setup wins and another for the failures for that setup. That way I can quickly flip thruogh and see commonalities...
At first it really opened my eyes to some of my trading tendencies. Made some changes. For example, I had one day where a setup with a normal 52% win rate.... had 7 losses in a row! At the end of the day I could see a reason why. Very cool.
After a while imagine will just do it one day a week or so, or if my stat's start to slide.
You may have a better system, whatever works for you. The best to you , thanks again for posting
Hi Hooti,
Thanks for sharing your process. It's really great to hear from you and know you're still trading.
I have alot of charts with my PA observations that are filed under my various set up tabs in a binder. I like your hard right edge approach.
I used to print a chart of every trade along with my trade review worksheet and file in a different binder. Winners in front, losers in back.
Also helpful but i haven't done that for awhile. Review has just been EOD on the screen.
As i mentioned recently i'm doing a complete re-write of my plan. I need this for my peace of mind/confidence and so that i don't miss trades or mismanage them. My set ups are still the same but now i have the experience and knowledge to be very specific. I've wanted this type of plan for quite awhile so i'm very pleased it's coming together. I also added "PA clues to pass on trade" . I still have several more set ups to spell out.
This weekend i've spent several hours marking trades on some past days charts with the stats i want to keep track of. Later today i'll start with the excel worksheets. This is the direction i'm now going in and will add more data each day. Ideally, i would have done this a long while back but oh well.
Good trading to you ! It sounds like you are definitely on the right track and no doubt you're results likely reflect that. Bravo !
Quote from Hooti:
I switched to CL back in March. No regrets, hope you like it also. I do believe that NoD said it likely takes 6 - 9 months to really get a feel for CL... but it's worth it.
You mention 'trade review'. I started taking screen shots... I call it a 'decision log'. With just a few notes on the screen shots. At the end of the day I put them in a word document and can look back and see decisions the 'hard right edge'. That in and of it self I've found very helpful. Much better than printing out the chart at the end of the day and reviewing it.
I go on and do more work and separtate the screen shots of actual trades... a separate word document for each setup wins and another for the failures for that setup. That way I can quickly flip thruogh and see commonalities...
At first it really opened my eyes to some of my trading tendencies. Made some changes. For example, I had one day where a setup with a normal 52% win rate.... had 7 losses in a row! At the end of the day I could see a reason why. Very cool.
Hi Jas,
While trading CL, there is a order flow that many feeds don't provide. Its called block trades. CME has a free feature online for this feed. You can also get a feed from them for few bucks.
As a test you can scan this feed and tie it to big breaks in CL. block orders over 500 would move the market instantaneously and usually are sustained moves. keep an eye especially on big option trades. Reading the strike price on them is easy once you get used to them.
I have attached the link below, do some analysis on you own and get comfortable. tie the chart to times these big trades are reported and you will see.
http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/tr...YM&assetclass=7
Remmeber that these trades happen OFF the exchange and then get reported to CME, by rule within 5 minutes so the reactions are usually swift but reliable.
Happy hunting.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Thanks for the post NoD.
JP, Great to see you're still here ! Thanks for the cme info. I'll spend some time with it.
Here's a chart from today. Been awhile since i've put one up.
1st trade was a failed b/o of a swing hi and at prior resistance area. I tightened my stop too quickly so got out at -3 ticks.
2nd trade was a play off the failed LOD breakout. I did not have the channel drawn in at the time which if i had would likely have kept me out.
tight stop 'cause it should work quickly if it's going to. -4 ticks
3rd trade still in buy mode from lod failed b/o. Now i've got the channel . buy the TL break and break of box. not the best box i've seen but took it nonetheless. Tighten stop after failure of price to move through 100 ema (5 min 20 ema) and resistance. If this trade is going to work shorts will be covering faster than they were. + 6
took another trade not shown -5 so ended -6 on day.
I pretty much backed off after that. PA looked choppy and my set ups are not yet specific enough to trade the last 1.5 hr drop.
I spent a fair number of hours over the weekend writing up some set ups, reviewing charts and writing an excel w/s. This will take alot more time but i have a clear idea of what i want to accomplish which i think is the hard part.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Thanks for the post NoD.
JP, Great to see you're still here ! Thanks for the cme info. I'll spend some time with it.
Here's a chart from today. Been awhile since i've put one up.
1st trade was a failed b/o of a swing hi and at prior resistance area. I tightened my stop too quickly so got out at -3 ticks.
2nd trade was a play off the failed LOD breakout. I did not have the channel drawn in at the time which if i had would likely have kept me out.
tight stop 'cause it should work quickly if it's going to. -4 ticks
3rd trade still in buy mode from lod failed b/o. Now i've got the channel . buy the TL break and break of box. not the best box i've seen but took it nonetheless. Tighten stop after failure of price to move through 100 ema (5 min 20 ema) and resistance. If this trade is going to work shorts will be covering faster than they were. + 6
took another trade not shown -5 so ended -6 on day.
I pretty much backed off after that. PA looked choppy and my set ups are not yet specific enough to trade the last 1.5 hr drop.
I spent a fair number of hours over the weekend writing up some set ups, reviewing charts and writing an excel w/s. This will take alot more time but i have a clear idea of what i want to accomplish which i think is the hard part.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
Thanks for the post NoD.
JP, Great to see you're still here ! Thanks for the cme info. I'll spend some time with it.
Here's a chart from today. Been awhile since i've put one up.
....
Quote from nkhoi:
looking good, only thing missing in your game is an identical chart but on higher time frame.
__________________
Guru,
-----------------------
"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
------------------------------
I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
JP, Thanks for the chart.
Nkhoi, Good to hear from you.
I have a 5 min chart on another monitor and look at 5000 vol and some higher time frames also.
I recently added the second monitor. I was hesitant because i don't want info overload. But i'm liking it and actually do less flipping from chart to chart now. Took me a long while to realize if i just focus on the 1 min chart i can read price better than trying to go back and forth between a 30 sec or a fast tick chart then back to 1 minute.
So mostly it's 1 minute on one screen, 5 min with some channels , ema on the other.
Quote from jas_in_hbca:
JP, Thanks for the chart.
Nkhoi, Good to hear from you.
I have a 5 min chart on another monitor ...
So mostly it's 1 minute on one screen, 5 min with some channels , ema on the other.
nkhoi,
You seem to feed me info right when i'm ready for it.
The majority of my time has been spent watching the 1 minute chart or faster tick charts in fast markets. In the past week or so i've been re thinking this and am starting to spend more time to find set ups off the 5 minute and fine tune entries off the 1 minute. I think this slightly bigger TF will keep me on the right side of mkt and simplify my analysis.
Thanks !
Last week results: gave back prior two weeks gains. I'll be in Sim for awhile until i adjust to CL and finish the revision of my trading plan.
Nothing to add that won't sound cliched 'i can do this' trader optimism.
Time sure flies. Been about a month since last update.
I've been doing a little sim trading but mostly working on my revised trading plan. It's taking longer than i expected due to work and life's little interruptions. The attention to detail this plan has also requires more thought and time.
Trying to balance strict rules with the discretionary reading of the market and context is tricky for me. For testing purposes i'd like the rules as unambiguous as possible. Some of my set ups/exits have that, some don't. That's the reality of trading , IMO. Entry triggers and exits have become more defined which will be extremely helpful going forward.
I'm still wrestling mentally with different exits. The balance of greed and fear of missing out on more profit with the accepting what the market is offering. Trailing stops vs targets, scale out or not. And the reminder that it doesn't have to be perfect, just profitable.
I'll post again when i have something worth sharing.
The plan is improved but not perfect. Exits still are rough and looking ahead to trading multiple contracts i'm not sure about scaling out.
There has been improvement in results though. (Still trading CL)
It finally set in that It's a Numbers Game. I put together an excel w/s showing various % wins/losses and average win/loss. My goal became to have 40% wins averaging 15 ticks and 60% losses averaging 7 ticks. This provides an edge and seemed quite possible. It made the series of losses easier to accept by keeping in mind the bigger picture of the Numbers Game.
December results came in with 46 % wins and 54% losses. Unfortunately average win was only 6.09. Clearly not a winning strategy.
The review of my trades pointed out the problem i've had since day 1- not holding winners.
With this in mind i resolved to hold winners when PA dictated. By knowing this was my weakness and reminding myself in trades to hold, remembering its a Numbers Game, focusing and doing some diaphragmatic breathing i've seen some improvement. There were a couple trades that were hard to hold yet by staying in paid off well. Still, i have plenty of room for improvement. Today i panicked (why ?) and sold for +4 when i should have held for +25.
Results for January 41.2 % wins, 58.8 % losses. average win 13.93, ave. loss 5.80 Net was 79 ticks on 34 trades.
I'm happy with the results and expect if i can stay focused on improving my trade management i can get better results. Ideally i'd like to get my win % above 45% also.
I still print out my charts everyday and save to jpgs the good ones. I've also started saving to a different folder Questionable trades. Trades where i probably didn't read context correctly. Maybe after some review i can find my weakness or a rule thats helps my set up criteria.
Sometimes i think consistency will be ever elusive then other times i think - it's just a numbers game, hang in there.
how about some charts ?
good day
followed by today although +7 for day
the second trade on this chart where i exited too soon is the exact spot i noted on the previous chart where i was nervous. That's gotta mean something ?
Monday after 3 losses in a row i thought i probably should quit for the day. My focus was poor and i was trading in chop. I ended up taking one more loss. In alot of other areas in life we can push through being tired or dig a little deeper to push on. Not the best strategy, for me anyway, to try that in trading.
The interesting thing is we often know the right course of action. Choosing to listen is another thing. That's the discipline so often talked about. I think it's partly a matter of accepting we can't be 100% all the time.
The rest of week went fine. Finished nicely positive.
A couple other things. One, i'm not drinking coffee during trading anymore. I love coffee but i think the caffeine wasn't a good mix.
Two, i mostly enter using stops now. I used to always enter w/ market orders before. It makes quite a difference in being able to, usually, calmly plan your trade then place your orders. Frequently i'll cancel if it doesn't move as expected. This works alot better for me than making quick, reactive decisions to fire off a trade. Once i place an order i can start thinking about possible trade management.
Somewhat off topic. I recently read "Miracle in the Andes" by N. Parrado. Traders around my age probably remember the book in the '70's titled 'Alive" about the rugby team whose plane crashed in the Andes. "Miracle" was written a few years back, 30+ years after the crash, by one of the survivors that hiked out. Absolutely incredible story about survival and perserverance. He writes about the whole ordeal then talks about what he's been doing since, why he wrote the book and what the other survivors ended up doing. Inspiring i thought and a reminder that whatever set backs i may have in trading are minor in the scheme of things and can be overcome with a never give up attitude.
I'm hoping to trade another week or two then expect i'll be too busy with work until late april.
lastly, my wife has been spending alot of free time watching the panda cam. Actually very worth checking out. The little guy is very entertaining.
http://www.sandiegozoo.org/pandacam/
I think that covers everything and then some.
Since my last post i only had time to trade 2 more days. Feb 15 was my last trading day. That's more than i traded last year in Feb.
Feb. results : 23 trades. 39 % losing. Net +46 ticks in CL. Average win + 13.67, average loss -5.50
This is two 'months' in a row of profit and the best results i've had, by any metric, since i've started this journal. Best absolute $$ gain, best profit/loss ratio, best mental focus etc.
I would have liked to finish out the month to see if i could have really finished positive. It would've been a nice confidence boost to have two complete months of profit but oh well. I'm happy with the progress.
I'll start trading again in April. First sim then back to live. I need another month of good results then i'll consider increasing to 2 contracts and scaling out. Adding to winning trades is something i will also need to consider.
When i started this journal i didn't want to miss any trading days for fear of missing the next big trade. Now i miss trading simply because it's beginning to be fun. I like the challenge of trying to maintain calm focus, the challenge of reading the context of price action and the reviewing of trade stats and market behavior to find ways to improve.
See you in April.
And so the journal continues a bit longer.
First full week of live trading. + 55 ticks ; $ 470 net. All of this comes from thursday trading when i caught a + 84 tick trade in CL. I exited way earlier and should have held for another +40. A trailing stop would have worked well. The exit was based on a channel as well as any excuse to book profits. It was my best trade ever and I was eager to close. The prior week i traded live once and was - 21 ticks.
Today only two trades(-6). Not a great night of sleep and i admit hesistant to give back $ profits and emotional profits from yesterday. Still i like the trades i took. i did miss one trade where i placed an order in the wrong spot so i cancelled it and couldn't get it replaced quick enough. A total of maybe 5 seconds but i missed a nice 15 -20 tick trade.
I felt a bit out of practice this past week so i honestly expect better results going forward.
Most of my progress has come from focusing on my weaknesses. A current issue i have is when i become slightly positive on the day, especially after being down, i usually stop trading. That happened tuesday. Trades i saw and should have taken i passed on. I'll be working on that by simply accepting that i will have to take trades which may result in going back negative for the day. If i can do that now , continue to take trades, it will make me a better trader in the long run.
Another goal is to add to a winner. This month i have to add to at least two trades.
I think i tend to under trade. Possibly a confidence issue. Ill be thinking about that.
Have a great week end traders !
ps Did i mention i had my best trade ever ? i was rather excited.
All Right!
and glad to see you post again.
Thanks Hooti ! I hope your trading is going well. oh, BTW that big win was off an Elliot wave set up. I don't take those too often but this was a count i couldn't pass up. Let me know if you want to see it.
.................
Lately I've been reading “ Subliminal. How your unconscious mind rules your behavior” by Leonard Mlodinow. Most of what I read are books that I hope will somehow improve my trading. (Except for The Hunger Games a while back which a friend recommended and I quite enjoyed). Well, I think I found a little nugget that could be helpful.
In chapter 8 Mlodinow discusses In & Out Groups. Humans have evolved with an 'us versus them' mentality. Historically, our family or living group (In group) must be ready to fight outside groups for scarce resources. Within our living groups are other in and out groups. Our nationality, ethnicity, sports team we play on, our career etc can all create an In group/ Out group mindset. Based on whether a person is in our group or out of our group will affect how we feel about them. But more importantly our perception of ourselves and our actions can be affected by the group we feel we belong to.
A Harvard study gave a math test to groups of Asian American Women. “These Asian American Women were members of two In groups with conflicting norms: they were Asian, a group identified with being good at math, and they were women, a group identified as being poor at it.” The women were 'primed' by giving them a questionnaire prior to the test. One group was asked about their family, the languages they spoke, questions that would make them identify with being Asian. Another group was asked about co-ed dorms and questions that would make them identify with being a women. A third control group was asked about phone and cable services.
The women primed to identify as Asian did the best, the control group performed second best and the women who were reminded of their female In group did the worst. Their performance had been subliminally affected.
Another study was done in Petrified Forest National Park. “.. researchers created a sign condemning the fact that many visitors steal wood” from the forest. When the sign was up 8% of the visitors stole wood. When the sign was not up only 3% stole. Subliminally, visitors were hearing (reading) that the group norm for 'visitors' was to steal and since they were in that group they became more likely to do so.
OK so what's this have to do with trading ?
I identify myself as being in the In Group called “Traders”. What's the one thing we know about traders ? Exactly ! 90 % of traders lose ! Holy smokes does that mean that for me to belong to the group I have to lose ? Is that what my subconscious is hearing ? I don't know but I think it's possible.
This is what I will be doing. On an index card I will write then read every day “100 % of traders who review their trades are consistently profitable”. Really ? That's me ! I review all my trades therefore I must be in the group of consistently profitable traders.
Will this work ? Again I don't know but I’m certain it won't hurt.
The Mlodinow book is an interesting and easy read. The author has a good sense of humor. And “Catching Fire” is on my Kindle waiting to be read.
I had a time also when I thought losing was just to be expected, part of the price you paid to learn.
Then NoD started talking about having losing trades but... when she followed her rules... which you might call reviewing your trades (before you place them!)... she said she basically had no losing days.
No losing days is a very realistic goal.
My latest bump up in quality of trading came from considering Xspurts observation that when he trained people, one of the commonalities was that they would start by saying what kind of trader they were and how they would trade. After watching them trade for a day he'd ask them if they traded the way they had said. They said 'yes' and totally thought they did. But he observed they were not doing what they were thinking and saying they had done.
I hope I am representing what he said rightly. At any rate, I started looking for places I was not doing what I thought I was. Which is an odd thing to do! I finally found some, and my trading improved immediately. Tho what I was doing.. that I didn't think I was... had become a habit, and changing that is much harder than it would appear, even with awareness.
In terms of 'reviewing their trade' I'm not sure if you mean before or after placing it? Sounds like before. I totally agree. The process of reading the market, deciding what it means, looking for valid reasons to pass... also if it doesn't do the expected, to reverse. Continuing the process with placing an order and trade management. This 'process' is far more important than the setup itself. If I skip any part of it, pffft, the trade becomes an amature thing and the data from it is meaningless. There is really nothing to learn from these trades, IMO, but to become professional and create data that you can learn from.
It was recognizing that my data was not useful that made my ear perk up when Xspurt make his observation about traders he mentored. His POV on it and way of describing it was very helpful.
I do EWT also, think I know where you were. Tho I don't always catch them! And the counts and fibs lately are not lining up as nicely as sometimes. All the best
Excellent piece
Thanks
Quote from Hooti:
I had a time also when I thought losing was just to be expected, part of the price you paid to learn.
Then NoD started talking about having losing trades but... when she followed her rules... which you might call reviewing your trades (before you place them!)... she said she basically had no losing days.
No losing days is a very realistic goal.
My latest bump up in quality of trading came from considering Xspurts observation that when he trained people, one of the commonalities was that they would start by saying what kind of trader they were and how they would trade. After watching them trade for a day he'd ask them if they traded the way they had said. They said 'yes' and totally thought they did. But he observed they were not doing what they were thinking and saying they had done.
I hope I am representing what he said rightly. At any rate, I started looking for places I was not doing what I thought I was. Which is an odd thing to do! I finally found some, and my trading improved immediately. Tho what I was doing.. that I didn't think I was... had become a habit, and changing that is much harder than it would appear, even with awareness.
In terms of 'reviewing their trade' I'm not sure if you mean before or after placing it? Sounds like before. I totally agree. The process of reading the market, deciding what it means, looking for valid reasons to pass... also if it doesn't do the expected, to reverse. Continuing the process with placing an order and trade management. This 'process' is far more important than the setup itself. If I skip any part of it, pffft, the trade becomes an amature thing and the data from it is meaningless. There is really nothing to learn from these trades, IMO, but to become professional and create data that you can learn from.
It was recognizing that my data was not useful that made my ear perk up when Xspurt make his observation about traders he mentored. His POV on it and way of describing it was very helpful.
I do EWT also, think I know where you were. Tho I don't always catch them! And the counts and fibs lately are not lining up as nicely as sometimes. All the best
__________________
Guru,
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"Happiness is not at the END of the road, its ALL the way along it"
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I would not stop until I can say the following : " I can't help making money"
Thanks Hooti. Not doing what you think you're doing. I'll have to give that some more thought.
On trade review I was actually speaking of post -trade review. I find that most helpful for me. During the trading day I will sometimes begin to make notes on my charts to keep me focused on the key price action so that's a little pre trade review. Overall I learn most from after the trade review.
Quote from Hooti:
I had a time also when I thought losing was just to be expected, part of the price you paid to learn.
Then NoD started talking about having losing trades but... when she followed her rules... which you might call reviewing your trades (before you place them!)... she said she basically had no losing days.
No losing days is a very realistic goal.
My latest bump up in quality of trading came from considering Xspurts observation that when he trained people, one of the commonalities was that they would start by saying what kind of trader they were and how they would trade. After watching them trade for a day he'd ask them if they traded the way they had said. They said 'yes' and totally thought they did. But he observed they were not doing what they were thinking and saying they had done.
I hope I am representing what he said rightly. At any rate, I started looking for places I was not doing what I thought I was. Which is an odd thing to do! I finally found some, and my trading improved immediately. Tho what I was doing.. that I didn't think I was... had become a habit, and changing that is much harder than it would appear, even with awareness.
In terms of 'reviewing their trade' I'm not sure if you mean before or after placing it? Sounds like before. I totally agree. The process of reading the market, deciding what it means, looking for valid reasons to pass... also if it doesn't do the expected, to reverse. Continuing the process with placing an order and trade management. This 'process' is far more important than the setup itself. If I skip any part of it, pffft, the trade becomes an amature thing and the data from it is meaningless. There is really nothing to learn from these trades, IMO, but to become professional and create data that you can learn from.
It was recognizing that my data was not useful that made my ear perk up when Xspurt make his observation about traders he mentored. His POV on it and way of describing it was very helpful.
I do EWT also, think I know where you were. Tho I don't always catch them! And the counts and fibs lately are not lining up as nicely as sometimes. All the best
Good trading leads to good trading and ......
Missing too many trades overall. The trades I missed today are driving me crazy. I will be doing market replay this weekend.
For the week I was +27 ticks. This is a good result for me compared to last year but well below what I expect I should be doing. On the plus side i'm trending in the right direction.
So why am I missing trades ? Probably fear of loss/being wrong. I took breaks at the wrong time, or it was the "wrong" time of day to trade or waiting for a bit more confirmation. And there's the bad trades I take that then make me hesitant. Not losing trades but fighting the trend too soon trades.
I think there's some psych. issues that may take a bit of time to figure out regarding the fear. Eliminating some of the bad trades shouldn't be difficult. I'll need to review my trading plan and charts and that usually helps.
Sometimes I think I need to stop analyzing so much and just trade what I see. My god man, It's a numbers game ! Relax !
I am closer than I've ever been. I want a breakthrough to the next level. But trying harder doesn't mean trading more.
OK, enough rambling.
A good week overall. Tues and Wed I was frustrated about missing trades. Thurs made the week with a + 86 tick trade. It was my best trade management to date IMO. Net for the week was + 67 ticks ($600 after commish)
The trade was very quickly + 28 then retraced to only be up a few ticks. I had moved my stop to BE+1 and very luckily avoided being stopped out by 1 tick. I kept raising my target and thought about closing at + 30 and +60. Instead I trailed my stop and had a very acceptable exit. I did think about adding but did not.
I'm thinking in the future i'll probably not place orders for targets. I rarely use them and it's just one more thing to think about while in the trade.
I'm again looking at trading two and scaling out. In reviewing my trades, if the right target is picked it always improves my results.
I am finding lucky 13 seems to be a good number. I'll review this more at end of month. I have an excel (open office) spreadsheet that I can dump my trades into and play what if with and see what happens if I exit 1 at various targets.
I've attached the weeks trades. You can see there were several that went > +12 but were closed at minimal profit. Assuming the trades
were closed at +13 when possible and the losing trades were twice the amount actually taken then I still end up with 37 more ticks. this is somewhat hypothetical because it assumes the remaining contract is exited at the same place as actual. In reality I may end up holding for more gains on some and lesser gains on some. Still, in every month I get better hypothetical results by doing a scale out vs trading one car.
I'm still not trading in the manner I want to be so i'll continue to work on my weakness of missing trades.
Today only took 1 trade because I was a tired.
This was my best 1 week return since starting the journal and my third consecutive profitable week.
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