Forums (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/index.php)
- Trading (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?forumid=1)
-- Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=19489)
Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
In my opinion, daytrading is merely the recognition of patterns. A rat eventually learns to run the correct way in a maze.
Fundamental analysis is requires brainpower, for it is required by the analyst to examine the data and apply it to his own view of what is a successful business model. Making a proper call on the proper fundamentals means that the analyst actually knows more than the market. It's a great place to be.
So I summarize by saying===> average returns are for average investors, superior returns are for superior investors.
Your comments are welcome.
Please stop spamming this board.
We are growing very weary of your posts.
Thank you.
If
Fundamental analysis is requires brainpower--------
__________________________________________
Then
How's daytrading treating you??
Vega
__________________
If your gut tells you get out, then get the hell out
Quote from bobcathy1:
Please stop spamming this board.
We are growing very weary of your posts.
Thank you.
Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from mrmarket:
In my opinion, daytrading is merely the recognition of patterns. A rat eventually learns to run the correct way in a maze.
Fundamental analysis is requires brainpower, for it is required by the analyst to examine the data and apply it to his own view of what is a successful business model. Making a proper call on the proper fundamentals means that the analyst actually knows more than the market. It's a great place to be.
So I summarize by saying===> average returns are for average investors, superior returns are for superior investors.
Your comments are welcome.
I prefer TA cause when done right its like Zen – you just go with the flow, trade the trend, don’t argue with the market.
But I realize that the richest people in the world use fundamental analysis as their approach to investments in: stocks, businesses, real estate, ect.
The best approach probably is to combine both, bet on value and trade the trend.
Stocks within 2% of their 52 week high with a 52 week price appreciation > 300%
Quote from bobcathy1:
Please stop spamming this board.
We are growing very weary of your posts.
Thank you.
Re: Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
There is a certain amount of truth to what you say. I've always thought that fundamental analysis requires great intellectual arrogance. As you say, it's an exercise in saying you are smarter than the market. The historical returns of actively managed funds, with all the high-priced analysis talent at their disposal, suggest that this arrogance is usually misplaced.
As I understand your selection criteria however, I wouldn't say you invest using fundamental analysis, at least not as your primary tool. You run several quant screens, then I suppose make a final due diligence type review that has fundamental elements. You are trying to ride the last momentum gasp of great winning stocks. I like that approach, but it's not really what Warren Buffett does, is it?
Quote from opw:
Is this not a price pattern? One of your own rules, from your site...
Re: Re: Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from mrmarket:
... .
It is a known fact that the money managers who went to the top business schools outperformed those that went to lesser schools when they did empirical and normalized return analysis of their respective funds. ... .
Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
Seriously, has anyone ever done a study like that?
Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from mrmarket:
So I summarize by saying===> average returns are for average investors, superior returns are for superior investors.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
Seriously, has anyone ever done a study like that?
Re: Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from AAAintheBeltway:
There is a certain amount of truth to what you say. I've always thought that fundamental analysis requires great intellectual arrogance. As you say, it's an exercise in saying you are smarter than the market. The historical returns of actively managed funds, with all the high-priced analysis talent at their disposal, suggest that this arrogance is usually misplaced.
As I understand your selection criteria however, I wouldn't say you invest using fundamental analysis, at least not as your primary tool. You run several quant screens, then I suppose make a final due diligence type review that has fundamental elements. You are trying to ride the last momentum gasp of great winning stocks. I like that approach, but it's not really what Warren Buffett does, is it?
__________________
Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from mrmarket:
In my opinion, daytrading is merely the recognition of patterns. A rat eventually learns to run the correct way in a maze.
Fundamental analysis is requires brainpower, for it is required by the analyst to examine the data and apply it to his own view of what is a successful business model. Making a proper call on the proper fundamentals means that the analyst actually knows more than the market. It's a great place to be.
So I summarize by saying===> average returns are for average investors, superior returns are for superior investors.
Your comments are welcome.
Re: Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from estrader:
Let's see:
1) I'd rather be a rat that has figured out the maze and milks it day in and day out, than the herd of rams that rushes to work every morming and then back home in the afternoon.
2) If financial analysts knew anything they would not be working, but be rich and retired. If a business model does not make money, you may as well use it to wipe you know what.
Bottom line stock market is the place where to make money, Academia is where to analyze yourself into oblivion.
Then System Trading (not limited to technical but also fundamental systems) uses the most brain power developing one...
Re: Re: Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from mrmarket:
It is a known fact that the money managers who went to the top business schools outperformed those that went to lesser schools when they did empirical and normalized return analysis of their respective funds. Not to be outdone, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ has outperformed all of these bozo's in the last 12 years, using my system.
Quote from WDGann:
Then System Trading (not limited to technical but also fundamental systems) uses the most brain power developing one...
Re: Re: Re: Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from bubba7:
We know you don't have time to answer financial Q's because of of time constraints caused by your job. your wife and your 3 kids.
You went to work for a chemical company and you do a sararied thing there daily week after week year after year. money managers do otherwise as they share fruits of participation and a host of other perks. trophy wives is their alternative as well and it is glitz oriented. Do your kids go to public schools as a preference that you have for continuing your family's traditions? most money managers send their kids to private schools.
I was wondering if the capital in your more successful approach is greater than the money managers get paid torun.
I compared what the wizzards to as they roll along to your published results. you are not by any standard that I know of building muchy real wealth when you net it back to buying power and that kind of stuff.
A combine fundamentals (more sophisticated than yours) with TA and I also use maths too. You have a lot to do to produce any kewl results as I see it. don't use me as a standard; Im not in your league.
Price itself is a great indicator in and of itself. In a sense, it incorporates all FA, sentiment and market conditions, et al, and distills it. It's not used, however, to help ascertain what an equity's share price may be 3 years down the road, as FA may be used. The problem is that things happen during the holding period to change the prospects of such as a longer term hold. Case in point, MSO. In 2002, the company was a brand name leader, no debt, had been consistently growing earnings for a few years, was establishing new markets via new products, media and expansion into Japan, and despite a sluggish economy, was the one publishing outfit asking for and getting higher CPM revenue, which said a lot about the company. The stock did well, until Martha lied to the Feds, as we all know, about her IMCL stock sale -which had not a thing to do fundamentally with MSO except that she's so closely tied to it. So with FA, keeping up with changes is essential. With TA, it's already in the price, so to speak: when the price started waning off it's peak and dipping into s/r, 50/100 moving average and what not, then that provided the update needed. But of course it's essential to consider that the horizon and aims are different for both groups as well and that has a part that plays in all of this too: How can one think in terms of FA when one is entering a trade that will last but a few moments or a few days?
Now, despite likening TA traders to rats and FA investors to higher brainpower, which is a nonsensical analogy and perhaps meant more to rile the readers, it could be noted that rats do very well for themselves, as they seem to prosper, while many analysts have been known to be way, way off the mark, even misleading, at times. Then there's the statistic that roughly 80% of all actively managed funds underperform their index. That's in any year. What's also noteworthy is that it is a minute minority of money managers who *consistenly* outperform their index year after year. It's not the same 20%! It changes every year. For the majority then, their analysis doesn't seem to help them stay on top.
Both TA and FA require brainpower, obviously. The technical trader as well as the fundamental investor both wish to profit and that can't be done without thought, ideas and action. To intimate that one group does and the other doesn't require brainpower is, again, nonsensical. Now as I start to peel the arguments as laid forth, I'm wondering why I ever thought this might be an earnest discussion in the first place, besides the fact that it's Earnest's discussion...
The conclusion that "average returns are for average investors, superior returns are for superior investors", while maybe could be a truth stated in and of itself, really is spurious as a conclusion to the hypothesis given. There is not any connection I know of that proves FA provides superior returns or is the method used by superior traders, nor that TA provides average returns and is only used by average traders, which I believe is what was implied or close to what was implied. Perhaps mrmarket would like to cite the studies that prove conclusively the assertions he made.
Quote from gms:
Price itself is a great indicator in and of itself. In a sense, it incorporates all FA, sentiment and market conditions, et al, and distills it. It's not used, however, to help ascertain what an equity's share price may be 3 years down the road, as FA may be used. The problem is that things happen during the holding period to change the prospects of such as a longer term hold. Case in point, MSO. In 2002, the company was a brand name leader, no debt, had been consistently growing earnings for a few years, was establishing new markets via new products, media and expansion into Japan, and despite a sluggish economy, was the one publishing outfit asking for and getting higher CPM revenue, which said a lot about the company. The stock did well, until Martha lied to the Feds, as we all know, about her IMCL stock sale -which had not a thing to do fundamentally with MSO except that she's so closely tied to it. So with FA, keeping up with changes is essential. With TA, it's already in the price, so to speak: when the price started waning off it's peak and dipping into s/r, 50/100 moving average and what not, then that provided the update needed. But of course it's essential to consider that the horizon and aims are different for both groups as well and that has a part that plays in all of this too: How can one think in terms of FA when one is entering a trade that will last but a few moments or a few days?
Now, despite likening TA traders to rats and FA investors to higher brainpower, which is a nonsensical analogy and perhaps meant more to rile the readers, it could be noted that rats do very well for themselves, as they seem to prosper, while many analysts have been known to be way, way off the mark, even misleading, at times. Then there's the statistic that roughly 80% of all actively managed funds underperform their index. That's in any year. What's also noteworthy is that it is a minute minority of money managers who *consistenly* outperform their index year after year. It's not the same 20%! It changes every year. For the majority then, their analysis doesn't seem to help them stay on top.
Both TA and FA require brainpower, obviously. The technical trader as well as the fundamental investor both wish to profit and that can't be done without thought, ideas and action. To intimate that one group does and the other doesn't require brainpower is, again, nonsensical. Now as I start to peel the arguments as laid forth, I'm wondering why I ever thought this might be an earnest discussion in the first place, besides the fact that it's Earnest's discussion...
The conclusion that "average returns are for average investors, superior returns are for superior investors", while maybe could be a truth stated in and of itself, really is spurious as a conclusion to the hypothesis given. There is not any connection I know of that proves FA provides superior returns or is the method used by superior traders, nor that TA provides average returns and is only used by average traders, which I believe is what was implied or close to what was implied. Perhaps mrmarket would like to cite the studies that prove conclusively the assertions he made.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from bubba7:
We know you don't have time to answer financial Q's because of of time constraints caused by your job. your wife and your 3 kids.
You went to work for a chemical company and you do a sararied thing there daily week after week year after year. money managers do otherwise as they share fruits of participation and a host of other perks. trophy wives is their alternative as well and it is glitz oriented. Do your kids go to public schools as a preference that you have for continuing your family's traditions? most money managers send their kids to private schools.
Quote from gms:
Then there's the statistic that roughly 80% of all actively managed funds underperform their index. That's in any year. What's also noteworthy is that it is a minute minority of money managers who *consistenly* outperform their index year after year. It's not the same 20%! It changes every year. For the majority then, their analysis doesn't seem to help them stay on top.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from mrmarket:
You want wealth? Try an extra inning game of wiffle ball with your 3 kids someday, and think about what really is important.
__________________
You must be in to win!
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from mrmarket:
Most money managers are not in my league:
I have outperformed the S&P 500 in each of the last 12 years using my quantitative model. Most money managers struggle to beat the market 50% of the time.
Most money managers did not attend Wharton nor do they have 19" biceps....they fail miserably when compared to me.
Thanks. I've read it - good book - but the quoted thoughts about money managers I had read some time ago in Random Walk Down Wall Street, I think it was.
Quote from dbphoenix:
Excellent post, gms. You haven't by any chance read Taleb's Fooled by Randomness, have you?
You're still comparing apples to oranges.
Traders are not investors and while many investors delude themselves into believing that they are "active" traders (something to do with the "thrill", the "glamour", and the "freedom"), it is a world of difference.
Do you really believe that those traders in the pit really give a flip about fundamentals? THEY'RE TRADERS. Geez, learn the difference. They aren't trading for their frigging 401K account in the hope of investment returns. They're making ACTIVE income by trading. Do you calculate your salary based on annualized returns? Sheesh.
Two thoughts...
MrMarket, you mentioned something on the theme of knowing more than the markets etc...I wonder if this is an impossibility tautologically...the markets have a price at close today for any stock you want to name...and the bottom line is, if you own that stock today, that's what you can get for it. Whether the prospects for appreciation are x or y for any given stock, the market is the final arbiter and the closing bell (disregarding afterhours trading of course) is the bottom line today. I understand FA and agree that finding "value" in a company and a high probability of a target in the future if everything goes as planned are skills to some extent, honed with experience and some hard work and yes, a bit of intellectual acumen necessary to Think ahead. But until any given stock truly does grow at such and such a rate, and produce earnings for this quarter or that quarter, it hasn't managed it yet and the market says: "here is what i'll pay you today for that company." In 4 to 6 weeks (your standard targeted time I *think* from your posts) the market may say different. But at no time in the 4 to 6 weeks, or before, or after, was the market ever wrong about the price or value of any company. Potential value is just that, potential....and Sept. 11ths, Martha Stewarts, Enrons and other sundry smaller incidents like the suicide or car accident claiming the life of a CEO can all impact Potential value, regardless of due diligence. You play probabilities well according to things that "make sense" to you. I just don't think its a matter of being ahead of or better than the market itself.
Second thought...whether its "average" or not, or involved "superior" intellect..a guy like John Henry, net worth 600 million to 1 billion, has used a very simple technical trend following system, as have many turtles. Whatever one thinks of the turtles, one can't dispute that a truly simple set of mathematical rules, (i.e. buy at new 40 day high, stop at last 20 day low, etc etc) hasn't produced signifant returns and fortunes for many. I'm not knocking your FA with a smidge of technical signals that are the precursor to you even engaging in the FA, but to say that TA alone is "lesser", well I think that's naively dismissive of what the power of TA, properly understood by some and applied by some, can achieve on its own. We all know the world of CNBC is populated by those who can't use either FA or TA very well quite often. Most traders can't either, no matter what their timeframe...but just as most people can't hit a bullseye with every dart throw, the flaw isnt in the dart, its in the people.
Just some thoughts...
Quote from Tacsian:
Two thoughts...
MrMarket, you mentioned something on the theme of knowing more than the markets etc...I wonder if this is an impossibility tautologically...the markets have a price at close today for any stock you want to name...and the bottom line is, if you own that stock today, that's what you can get for it. Whether the prospects for appreciation are x or y for any given stock, the market is the final arbiter and the closing bell (disregarding afterhours trading of course) is the bottom line today. I understand FA and agree that finding "value" in a company and a high probability of a target in the future if everything goes as planned are skills to some extent, honed with experience and some hard work and yes, a bit of intellectual acumen necessary to Think ahead. But until any given stock truly does grow at such and such a rate, and produce earnings for this quarter or that quarter, it hasn't managed it yet and the market says: "here is what i'll pay you today for that company." In 4 to 6 weeks (your standard targeted time I *think* from your posts) the market may say different. But at no time in the 4 to 6 weeks, or before, or after, was the market ever wrong about the price or value of any company. Potential value is just that, potential....and Sept. 11ths, Martha Stewarts, Enrons and other sundry smaller incidents like the suicide or car accident claiming the life of a CEO can all impact Potential value, regardless of due diligence. You play probabilities well according to things that "make sense" to you. I just don't think its a matter of being ahead of or better than the market itself.
Second thought...whether its "average" or not, or involved "superior" intellect..a guy like John Henry, net worth 600 million to 1 billion, has used a very simple technical trend following system, as have many turtles. Whatever one thinks of the turtles, one can't dispute that a truly simple set of mathematical rules, (i.e. buy at new 40 day high, stop at last 20 day low, etc etc) hasn't produced signifant returns and fortunes for many. I'm not knocking your FA with a smidge of technical signals that are the precursor to you even engaging in the FA, but to say that TA alone is "lesser", well I think that's naively dismissive of what the power of TA, properly understood by some and applied by some, can achieve on its own. We all know the world of CNBC is populated by those who can't use either FA or TA very well quite often. Most traders can't either, no matter what their timeframe...but just as most people can't hit a bullseye with every dart throw, the flaw isnt in the dart, its in the people.
Just some thoughts...
It's all about the time frame
I think that the reason that the majority of people here use TA of FA is the time frame. Most here (including myself) are looking for quick moves, in which case FA is not going to help you (unless you have deduced from your FA that corporate news in coming in the very near future). Anyway, they can both work, and I do look at both if I am actually going to INVEST in a stock for a longer time frame, but for short-term trading I could care less what the company does, just give me a juicy looking chart and I'm all over it !!
Vega
__________________
If your gut tells you get out, then get the hell out
Nice Post
Great post Tacsian!
Best regards,
Trapper
Re:''Certain truth''-AAAinthebeltway +technicalls+fundamentals
Quote from mrmarket:
In my opinion, daytrading is merely the recognition of patterns. A rat eventually learns to run the correct way in a maze.
Fundamental analysis is requires brainpower, for it is required by the analyst to examine the data and apply it to his own view of what is a successful business model. Making a proper call on the proper fundamentals means that the analyst actually knows more than the market. It's a great place to be.
So I summarize by saying===> average returns are for average investors, superior returns are for superior investors.
Your comments are welcome.
__________________
murray t turtle,nickname,not an alias
Quote from JT47319:
You're still comparing apples to oranges.
Traders are not investors and while many investors delude themselves into believing that they are "active" traders (something to do with the "thrill", the "glamour", and the "freedom"), it is a world of difference.
Do you really believe that those traders in the pit really give a flip about fundamentals? THEY'RE TRADERS. Geez, learn the difference. They aren't trading for their frigging 401K account in the hope of investment returns. They're making ACTIVE income by trading. Do you calculate your salary based on annualized returns? Sheesh.
Quote from dbphoenix:
Don't know who the "you" is that you're referring to, and it's true that traders and investors do not share the same perceptions.
But unless one is clutching the stock certificates on his deathbed, he's a trader, regardless of what he calls himself. Do some traders incorporate fundamentals into their activities? Of course. That's what CANSLIM is all about, even though one may use it for nothing more than narrowing down the universe of potential trading vehicles. Other traders use TA only, but use so many indicators that price is an irrelevancy. And most traders have never set foot on the Floor.
Even though I no longer incorporate fundamentals into my trading since I no longer trade stocks, I find a greater difference between me and somebody who scalps off tick charts than I do between me and the trader who has eyeballed those fundamentals.
mrmarket
let's not get carried away !!!
__________________
If your gut tells you get out, then get the hell out
Quote from mrmarket:
Another great post...the eloquence of the ET veterans is starting to shine through. Maybe I should be a moderator?
Quote from dbphoenix:
As long as you continue to behave like a normal person, you'll get normal responses. Your comment above implies that you think I am now a fan. Believe me, I'm not. You have the same blind spot that Tom and David Gardner have, and I've been arguing that for nine years (actually, not so much any more). If I want to argue it further, I'll head to the MF site. I'm sure not going to do it here.
My post was directed toward the issue of whether one can incorporate fundamentals and still be a trader. If it stemmed from something you said at an earlier point, the link was purely coincidental.
Quote from mrmarket:
I am normal...the only thing different about me is my amazing stock picking record and my enormous biceps.
Quote from dbphoenix:
But unless one is clutching the stock certificates on his deathbed, he's a trader, regardless of what he calls himself. Do some traders incorporate fundamentals into their activities? Of course. That's what CANSLIM is all about, even though one may use it for nothing more than narrowing down the universe of potential trading vehicles. Other traders use TA only, but use so many indicators that price is an irrelevancy. And most traders have never set foot on the Floor.
Even though I no longer incorporate fundamentals into my trading since I no longer trade stocks, I find a greater difference between me and somebody who scalps off tick charts than I do between me and the trader who has eyeballed those fundamentals.
__________________
You must be in to win!
How long can this lovefest continue??? I say the over/under is until 12 noon EST today, and I have the under. Who wants to make me a winner?
Quote from mrmarket:
How long can this lovefest continue???
I'm was thinking how lots of your comments seem more suited to Yahoo/Motley Fool/Raging Bull type sites and that led me to this question: What happened with you and Motley Fool that you don't frequent them anymore?
Quote from gms:
I'm was thinking how lots of your comments seem more suited to Yahoo/Motley Fool/Raging Bull type sites and that led me to this question: What happened with you and Motley Fool that you don't frequent them anymore?
Quote from mrmarket:
They started charging for their message board service
Quote from mrmarket:
How long can this lovefest continue??? I say the over/under is until 12 noon EST today, and I have the under. Who wants to make me a winner?
__________________
You must be in to win!
Quote from dbphoenix:
But unless one is clutching the stock certificates on his deathbed, he's a trader, regardless of what he calls himself.
Quote from JT47319:
I believe the time frame in discussion was daytrading.
Quote from JT47319:
I believe the time frame in discussion was daytrading.
__________________
You must be in to win!
Re: It's all about the time frame
Quote from vega:
I think that the reason that the majority of people here use TA of FA is the time frame. Most here (including myself) are looking for quick moves, in which case FA is not going to help you (unless you have deduced from your FA that corporate news in coming in the very near future). Anyway, they can both work, and I do look at both if I am actually going to INVEST in a stock for a longer time frame, but for short-term trading I could care less what the company does, just give me a juicy looking chart and I'm all over it !!
Vega
OK, I'll dive in....
Trying to look past the silliness shown in some of the posts, I will try to respond to the orignal premise.....FA and daytrading.
We not only subscribe to, but encourage, all of our traders to be totally cognizant of the fundementals for the stocks they trade. Whether you're pair trading, using relative strength, or simply scalping....it is imperative that you know the fundementals.
Trading is much more than playing a video game (I am not saying that many of you think that, just some of you.....lol). We need to take this profession seriously...and treat the stocks we trade as "children".....children whom we love and cherish (and insist on knowing everything about them....whether they like it or not!).
I know all the basics about every stock I trade....and, yes, I understand that even the "financial records" can and have been "cooked" at times....but, nonetheless, we must know book values, P/E's and all the rest.
Don
__________________
Don Bright (not an alias)
http://www.stocktrading.com
Re: OK, I'll dive in....
Quote from Don Bright:
Trying to look past the silliness shown in some of the posts, I will try to respond to the orignal premise.....FA and daytrading.
We not only subscribe to, but encourage, all of our traders to be totally cognizant of the fundementals for the stocks they trade. Whether you're pair trading, using relative strength, or simply scalping....it is imperative that you know the fundementals.
Trading is much more than playing a video game (I am not saying that many of you think that, just some of you.....lol). We need to take this profession seriously...and treat the stocks we trade as "children".....children whom we love and cherish (and insist on knowing everything about them....whether they like it or not!).
I know all the basics about every stock I trade....and, yes, I understand that even the "financial records" can and have been "cooked" at times....but, nonetheless, we must know book values, P/E's and all the rest.
Don
Re: OK, I'll dive in....
Quote from Don Bright:
Trying to look past the silliness shown in some of the posts, I will try to respond to the orignal premise.....FA and daytrading.
We not only subscribe to, but encourage, all of our traders to be totally cognizant of the fundementals for the stocks they trade. Whether you're pair trading, using relative strength, or simply scalping....it is imperative that you know the fundementals.
Trading is much more than playing a video game (I am not saying that many of you think that, just some of you.....lol). We need to take this profession seriously...and treat the stocks we trade as "children".....children whom we love and cherish (and insist on knowing everything about them....whether they like it or not!).
I know all the basics about every stock I trade....and, yes, I understand that even the "financial records" can and have been "cooked" at times....but, nonetheless, we must know book values, P/E's and all the rest.
Don
__________________
You must be in to win!
(Oh my good god, on this I find myself in agreement with mrmarket.) Actually, even for free it's a joke.
Quote from mrmarket:
They started charging for their message board service, which I thought was a joke.
MM capitalization
How many stocks is MM holding?
What is his average tim of hold now?
what is the trend of holding time over the last three years?
I think his money velocity is in decline.
What are the facts.
HE works
Has a 10 yr old car
three kids going to go to private schools if he treats them as he was treated.
maybe wife will have needs to socialize on a normal level soon.
will he get a home so kids can have their own rooms.
The split on the take.
Has MM mentioned on how much he pulls a month to supplement salary?
how much monthly growth does he leave in at this point?
Any body know this stuff.
we can make a model of his stuff and see what he means.
Looks like he thinks the S&P is some kind of rference. But for what?
If you pace the indexes you are standing still in buying power and relative wealth creation.
He usually comes on here to satisfy personal needs and we can take him out of here with one single post. history will repeat but it would be nice to find out why he is stuck where he is and what it will take to get him to begin to reason about any thing at all.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from mrmarket:
Most money managers did not attend Wharton nor do they have 19" biceps....they fail miserably when compared to me.
I dont know how FA can be used for intraday trading.......it doesnt matter that the company may or may not earn x $$$ or its p/e is right on the money.....hell it doesnt mater if the CEO of the company is a crook and cooking the books by sticking inventory in some warehouse out in Texas and booking it as a sale (sunbeam) if the price is going up and ur long who cares.......peace
__________________
Freedom, I have much love for ya!!
Hershey, give it a rest. This has actually turned into a fairly decent thread. If you want to fight with somebody, put on your bubba 7 suit and hit Chit Chat.
Re: Re: OK, I'll dive in....
Quote from inandlong:
Knowing the fundamentals is one thing, basing your intraday entry and exit decisions on them is another.
I doubt you teach your traders to jump in when the P/e gets to 18.1 and get out when it is 18.5. I am sure you don't send a quick note to your guys and say, "Hey, GE just bought another imaging company, let's ride this baby for a quick 20 cents."
Re: Re: OK, I'll dive in....
Quote from inandlong:
Knowing the fundamentals is one thing, basing your intraday entry and exit decisions on them is another.
I doubt you teach your traders to jump in when the P/e gets to 18.1 and get out when it is 18.5. I am sure you don't send a quick note to your guys and say, "Hey, GE just bought another imaging company, let's ride this baby for a quick 20 cents."
Maybe there is room for you to write a book Don, "Daytrading with Fundamentals"!
__________________
Don Bright (not an alias)
http://www.stocktrading.com
Re: Re: Re: OK, I'll dive in....
Quote from dbphoenix:
But once the universe is defined, continuing to make the fundamentals a factor can kill you (it's a good stock; it'll come back). At that point, TA rules.
__________________
Freedom, I have much love for ya!!
Re: Re: Re: OK, I'll dive in....
Quote from Don Bright:
I don't think that the book will have that exact title (but you never know...lol)....and if we used fundamentals for daytrading (especially 1997-2000 or so), we would have all gone broke. However, as a Relative Strength measure (when pair trading, or using sector strength), it is always good to have the "numbers" already in your head.
Remember, this is an easy game to keep score in.....$$ and cents (and sometimes a little "sense" goes a long way).
Don
__________________
You must be in to win!
Re: Re: Re: Re: OK, I'll dive in....
Quote from ElCubano:
PRICE rules over NEWS which rules over TA which rules over FA.......
__________________
You must be in to win!
Quote from ElCubano:
I dont know how FA can be used for intraday trading.......it doesnt matter that the company may or may not earn x $$$ or its p/e is right on the money.....hell it doesnt mater if the CEO of the company is a crook and cooking the books by sticking inventory in some warehouse out in Texas and booking it as a sale (sunbeam) if the price is going up and ur long who cares.......peace
Quote from inandlong:
It seems to me that the inclusion of fundamental analysis in the thread title implies a longer time frame than daytrading. I would venture that less than .1% of daytraders use FA. As such, there really wouldn't be much discussion posited by the daytrading FA crowd.
Re: Re: Re: Re: OK, I'll dive in....
Quote from ElCubano:
PRICE rules over NEWS which rules over TA which rules over FA.......
you can have a great looking chart in an amazing trend and have some shmeckle head on cnbc mess it all up.....peace
Re: The split on the take.
Quote from jack hershey:
Has MM mentioned on how much he pulls a month to supplement salary?
how much monthly growth does he leave in at this point?
Any body know this stuff.
we can make a model of his stuff and see what he means.
Looks like he thinks the S&P is some kind of rference. But for what?
If you pace the indexes you are standing still in buying power and relative wealth creation.
He usually comes on here to satisfy personal needs and we can take him out of here with one single post. history will repeat but it would be nice to find out why he is stuck where he is and what it will take to get him to begin to reason about any thing at all.
Quote from dbphoenix:
Hershey, give it a rest. This has actually turned into a fairly decent thread. If you want to fight with somebody, put on your bubba 7 suit and hit Chit Chat.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: OK, I'll dive in....
Quote from jack hershey:
why not just learn to be on the right side of the moves???? somedaay you will notice that someone is one the opposite side of where you are stuck.
__________________
Freedom, I have much love for ya!!
Re: Re: The split on the take.
Quote from mrmarket:
Maybe you'll find this email I received today from Investors Business Daily of interest:
From: forumsupport@investors.com
To: mr_market63@yahoo.com
Subject: RE: I have 25 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better...I am the greatest stockpicker on the planet
Date: Wed, 2 Jul 2003 10:50:10 -0700
Excellent results to go along with the bravado. If these type of results continue, provided you're investing an appreciable amount per stock, you'll be financially independent in the not too distant future. Be careful as you enjoy the best meats and cheeses.
-------------------------------------------------
You are receiving this message from IBD Forums because you have flagged this forum, topic or user.
Quote from jack hershey:
what is getting your attention besides me now?
Quote from dbphoenix:
Actually, I try to avoid paying any attention to you at all.
Re: Re: The split on the take.
Usually everytime I write someone I get a nice somewhat personalized letter back too, but that's not quite the same as a real endorsement. Are you suggesting your email is just that? Shall we call IBD and ask them if that letter is to be taken as an endorsement of your methods?
Quote from mrmarket:
Maybe you'll find this email I received today from Investors Business Daily of interest:
Re: Re: Re: The split on the take.
Quote from gms:
Usually everytime I write someone I get a nice somewhat personalized letter back too, but that's not quite the same as a real endorsement. Are you suggesting your email is just that? Shall we call IBD and ask them if that letter is to be taken as an endorsement of your methods?
Anyway, about mixing FA with TA made me think of Richard Rhodes. A couple of links:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content...und8/P35964.asp
https://www.therhodesreport.com/res...dout8-24-02.pdf
Re: Re: Re: Re: The split on the take.
Quote from mrmarket:
I'm not suggesting anything...I just thought some of you might want to see it.
Is Richard Rhodes related to Dusty Rhodes, the American Dream?
__________________
Freedom, I have much love for ya!!
Elcubano
I beg to differ, The Road Warriors, The Legion of Doom, call em what you like but Animal and Hawk are undeniably the best tag team ever !!!
Vega
__________________
If your gut tells you get out, then get the hell out
Re: Elcubano
Quote from vega:
I beg to differ, The Road Warriors, The Legion of Doom, call em what you like but Animal and Hawk are undeniably the best tag team ever !!!
Vega
I am IRON MAN
Used to love hearing that music as they stormed the ring and beat the crap out the opposition. And MM, 2 points for not saying that your biceps are bigger than theirs, lol !!!!!!!!!!
Vega
__________________
If your gut tells you get out, then get the hell out
The debate of technical vs. fundamental will go on forever. I think both camps have positives and negatives. Personally, I'm in the technical camp....However, I think the trump card in this entire debate is Risk Management. Without proper risk controls in place neither system will ultimately produce superior results.
YYYAaaaawwwwnnnn
Good day fellow ET bretheren....
Im yawning because ive been taking naps all day....I love the days leading up to a holiday weekend....ANyway, I just had to see hpw everythihg was going and I think it's wonderful that despite my absence, Mr. Market is stilll irratating people, Inandlong is back ( thankd god) and is talkin to magna again....And my ol buddy Jack Hershey can write a 500 word essay that makes absolutley no sense!!
HOW MANY SHARES DO YOU TYPICALLY TRADE?
after all, holding 50- 100 shares of a losing stock is easy iof you downside ( assuming bankruptcy) is a grand or two right?
What is the biggest share position and what is the smallest share position you currently hold?
Happy and safe 4th holiday to all......and I truly believe MM is a decent gut having some fun.....One question that has elluded me though for quite some time though is this
__________________
_____________________________
Although I don't believe in an after life, just in case, Im going to bring a fresh pair of underwear with me when i die...
Fair enough. Some of me didn't want to see it, but thanks anyway.
Quote from mrmarket:
I'm not suggesting anything...I just thought some of you might want to see it.
Re: I am IRON MAN
Quote from vega:
Used to love hearing that music as they stormed the ring and beat the crap out the opposition. And MM, 2 points for not saying that your biceps are bigger than theirs, lol !!!!!!!!!!
Vega
2nd request
HOW MANY SHARES DO YOU TYPICALLY TRADE?
after all, holding 50- 100 shares of a losing stock is easy iof you downside ( assuming bankruptcy) is a grand or two right?
What is the biggest share position and what is the smallest share position you currently hold?
Happy and safe 4th holiday to all......and I truly believe MM is a decent gut having some fun.....One question that has elluded me though for quite some time though is this
__________________
_____________________________
Although I don't believe in an after life, just in case, Im going to bring a fresh pair of underwear with me when i die...
Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from mrmarket:
In my opinion, daytrading is merely the recognition of patterns. A rat eventually learns to run the correct way in a maze.
Fundamental analysis is requires brainpower, for it is required by the analyst to examine the data and apply it to his own view of what is a successful business model. Making a proper call on the proper fundamentals means that the analyst actually knows more than the market. It's a great place to be.
So I summarize by saying===> average returns are for average investors, superior returns are for superior investors.
Your comments are welcome.
Re: Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
Quote from UTP:
I don't know about "brain power', but daytrading earns me about 300% a month...
__________________
You must be in to win!
If I want to go to the supermarket I can take a bicycle. If I want to go to the beach I can take a camping car. I never oppose the two since they are different vehicules for different destinations. FA and TA are complementary. In fact I called my model Fundamental Model because it is a micro-economic model. But since it only uses historical datas it can be viewed as TA. So the idstinction between the two cannot be so obvious. Using ratios like Price Earning Ratio is just kind of TA also from statistical point of view.
__________________
The dialectical method of Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (1770-1831) consists of two main steps: the invention of artificial extremes (``thesis'' and ``antithesis'') which superficially conflict with each other, and the synthesis from that conflict of a goal, which is made to appear to be the product of consensus. The artificial extremes are chosen and propagandized (marginalizing the population) in such a way that the goal is naturally synthesized from them. It is, essentially, a trick - a fraud. It is a strategy of ideological divide-and-conquer. The dialectic ruse dissipates the energy and coherency of its targets - unless they recognize the ruse as such.
The Architecture of Modern Political Power
Re: Re: Daytrading vs. fundamental analysis
I would like any info you may be able to share on your results.
Quote from UTP:
...I don't know about "brain power', but daytrading earns me about 300% ...
up date from website.
web updated the 15th
He can sell UTSI for 15% profit; 29 winners in a row
One other stock is up from the 15th: AXL
Nine others are falling.
10 holds: 1 up; 9 down.
holds over a year: 5 one is up
holds over 4 weeks: 8 one is up
holds over 6 weeks: 8 one is up
holds under the 4 to 6 week time target: 2 both down.
Two money streams in cash for several weeks; no new buys.
All times are GMT. The time now is 07:50 AM.