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-- Taking 410K to 4million by Year End 2010 (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=187779)
Taking 410K to 4million by Year End 2010
After careful consideration, I have decided to kick off another year with a new target. Percentage-wise, it is not a lot different from the target for last year Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009, which was not achieved. The slow-down in volatility towards the end of last year made me think I should perhaps bring down expecations for this year, as it looks likely to be a low volatility one. However, I believe there are enough opportunities even in a slow year to aim as high as this. My second-half performance last year works out to an average weekly rate of 3.3% compounded. My target this year is for 50 weeks at a compound rate of 4.7% per week.
I am putting a lot of stuff on automation including minimum entry criteria for my discretionary trades, and will ramp up risk taken as the account buffer grows. Once again, my expectation is for a maximum draw-down of 40% (high to low) while trying to hit this target. There will be more overnight/swing-type option trading positions this year: I feel the need to close positions at end of day has limited upside on several occasions. However, those longer timeframes should be reserved for trades with better upside potential.
You are welcome to enjoy the ride.
Best of luck bud.
__________________
One dollar at a time 
2nd! Good luck.
good luck dude.
Good luck. Since I haven't looked at your previous journals, would you mind giving a brief summary of your trading?
What you trade, time frame, style, hold time, etc.
Thanks,
Quote from clacy:
Good luck. Since I haven't looked at your previous journals, would you mind giving a brief summary of your trading?
What you trade, time frame, style, hold time, etc.
Thanks,
i'm not sure what the point of having an unrealistic goal like this. you never met any of your prior years' goals, and i'm gonna go out on a limb now and say you won't meet this one. are these wild goals intended to generate a lot of buzz? i guess "taking 410k to 575k by end of 2010" doesn't sound as interesting.
Quote from blackjack007:
i'm not sure what the point of having an unrealistic goal like this. you never met any of your prior years' goals, and i'm gonna go out on a limb now and say you won't meet this one. are these wild goals intended to generate a lot of buzz? i guess "taking 410k to 575k by end of 2010" doesn't sound as interesting.
One recently recalled a quote from James Cameron discussing the movie Avatar, which stated, "If you set your goals ridiculously high and it's a failure, you will fail above everyone else's successes."
I don't care if the goal is 2 million, 4 or 8, I'm just looking forward to this thread, the drawdowns and struggles and the success that usually follows them.
Happy trading and good luck accomplishing 4 million
Quote from blackjack007:
i'm not sure what the point of having an unrealistic goal like this. you never met any of your prior years' goals, and i'm gonna go out on a limb now and say you won't meet this one. are these wild goals intended to generate a lot of buzz? i guess "taking 410k to 575k by end of 2010" doesn't sound as interesting.
hi keke,
how are you automating with TD Ameritrade?
Quote from bidask:
hi keke,
how are you automating with TD Ameritrade?
I would like to say good job for last year, but when i did the math for your first two trades (POT & SPY and not calculating the options that you bought which was minimal anyway) and figured what you would've made if you had just bought and held all year, you kind of left alot of money on the table. You closed the year with 502k, but if you had just bought and held, you would've closed the year with about 660k or so (I didnt factor in margin costs in that figure, but assuming 12% per year on 500k of margin and you still come up cashing out end of year with an extra 100k in your pocket.
You made a 57% return for the year and you used what...3 to 1 margin? 4 to 1 margin? The Dow is up 26% from when you started trading on Jan 15 2009. At that rate of margin, you should've been up at least 75% to stay even with the market.
Not saying you did bad though, but just dont pat yourself on the back too much or let others pat you on the back until you are outperforming the market in real terms. It can throw you off if you see you made a huge return in % numbers and dont factor in margin to that play. A trader that makes 25% returns on a cash account is a better trader than one that makes 75% returns on a 4 to 1 margin account. Dont get "Fooled by Randomness" 
Good luck next year. If you do take 400k to 4 million by year end this year, you will know you are a good trader (as long as the dow doesnt go to 35,000 by year end, then you would still just be trading alongside the market at 4 to 1 leverage)
Neke Trading
Well done Neke for taking the mantle on again.
What do you think you are going to be doing different this that you were doing last year ? I am interested in this.
And what are you going to keep that works.
Good Trading mate for 2010
All the Best
john
Quote from peilthetraveler:
but if you had just bought and held,
__________________
'Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,' Says the LORD.
Best thread on these forums !!! LOOKING FORWARD TO IT AND GOOOD LUCK NEKE !
Quote from DblArrow:
Surely you have been around long enough to know the stupidity of this statement??
post your results every day, i am sure there will be a hell lot of fun. 
awesome. GL!
What took you so long to open a new thread.... just kidding ...
Cheers and Good Luck
Quote from peilthetraveler:
but if you had just bought and held,
Neke, if I remember correctly, dont you work part time?. If that's the case, at what point did you plan on going full time?
Neke, do you have the typical 4:1 intraday buying power, and 2:1 overnight buying power?
Also, what percentage of your buying power do you typically use every day?
Thanks,
+-*/ Math_Wiz
Good luck, you can do it!!
Quote from konviction:
Neke, if I remember correctly, dont you work part time?. If that's the case, at what point did you plan on going full time?
Quote from Math_Wiz:
Neke, do you have the typical 4:1 intraday buying power, and 2:1 overnight buying power?
Also, what percentage of your buying power do you typically use every day?
Thanks,
+-*/ Math_Wiz
Quote from neke:
Yes, 4:1 intra-day, 2:1 overnight. Typically I do not use all, I haven't computed the figure, but probably at any point in the trading day, I have used half of my buying power on average.
Will be following, looked through last journal, do you use much T/A in your trading?
Quote from neke:
Yes I do have a regular job still. My boss has already asked me if I was a day-trader! I told him, No, but I manage my own investments. If it becomes a problem, I will have to give up the regular job.
Quote from neke:
Yes I do have a regular job still. My boss has already asked me if I was a day-trader!
BIDU was on fire today, even for its OTM Jan calls. I hope you didn't miss the boat.
__________________
Trading equities for small guys is guerrilla warfare!
maybe he made all the 4mil today? cant wait till Friday, Neke, will you give us a early showing?
Quote from trading_time:
maybe he made all the 4mil today? cant wait till Friday, Neke, will you give us a early showing?
Quote from NoDoji:
Neke what would make him ask that?
For the record, I just put on a large NEKE Dec 2,000,000 call position. I apologize for betting short of your goal, but I need to honor my risk management rules
the very fact that you replied probably means you made some money this week so far or today. If this was poker you gave yourself away I would fold.
Quote from neke:
Sorry, it didn't happen!
Quote from peilthetraveler:
I would like to say good job for last year, but when i did the math for your first two trades (POT & SPY and not calculating the options that you bought which was minimal anyway) and figured what you would've made if you had just bought and held all year, you kind of left alot of money on the table. You closed the year with 502k, but if you had just bought and held, you would've closed the year with about 660k or so (I didnt factor in margin costs in that figure, but assuming 12% per year on 500k of margin and you still come up cashing out end of year with an extra 100k in your pocket.
You made a 57% return for the year and you used what...3 to 1 margin? 4 to 1 margin? The Dow is up 26% from when you started trading on Jan 15 2009. At that rate of margin, you should've been up at least 75% to stay even with the market.
Not saying you did bad though, but just dont pat yourself on the back too much or let others pat you on the back until you are outperforming the market in real terms. It can throw you off if you see you made a huge return in % numbers and dont factor in margin to that play. A trader that makes 25% returns on a cash account is a better trader than one that makes 75% returns on a 4 to 1 margin account. Dont get "Fooled by Randomness"
Good luck next year. If you do take 400k to 4 million by year end this year, you will know you are a good trader (as long as the dow doesnt go to 35,000 by year end, then you would still just be trading alongside the market at 4 to 1 leverage)
Quote from neke:
Why strive for less than my worst percentage performance in the last 5 years? Sorry, I strive to beat my best record!
neke, haven't followed your postings and trades from the past. Is this a real money trading account as opposed to a simulated account? Thanks
__________________
we don't know that we don't know what we think we know.....
Weekly Update for week 1/50 ended 01/16/2010
A disastrous start to the year. Down 99.5K (24%). It all happened on Thursday.
Saw the follow-up rally on BIDU on Thursday, and thought it was overdone at 449. Forgot all the harm I have suffered in BIDU on previous occasions, and that this was just a day to expiration. Bought 50 JAN 450 PUTS @ 6.50, as well as shorting 500 shares. Then came another surge and I added another 60 contracts @ 5.80, and extra 500 in shares. Watched all morning for exit point, but instead came another surge by noon, and in vengeance bought 200 contracts @ 4.00. That was the last act of desperation. Watched as the stock climbed and did not look back, while the premiums kept eroding. Finally closed all 310 contracts at prices from 1.80 down to 1.30 as the bids kept disappearing when I put in my limit order to get out. Lost 102K in stock and 14K in options.
Looking for ways to overcome this inability to accept a loss. Right now, I am putting in place an auto-closure of any position that loses 6% of my account AT THE MARKET. Maybe I will learn to adjust my size accordingly and resist the temptation to average down.
Other that the above, the vast majority of the trades were automated trades made with low size -- and too small to appear on the top/bottom trades. I am looking forward to doing more of the automation.
So much for my sad story.
code:
Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss for the week -99,486 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 310,514 Number of Trades 57 Number of Profitable Trades 29 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 01/16/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) -99,486 (Down 24.3%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 310,514 Number of Trades 57 Number of Profitable Trades 29 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE PCLN 2010-01-13-10-30-04 2010-01-13-12-38-20 2500 522375 531799 9390 LONG ------------------------------------------------------- BIDU 2010-01-14-10-07-59 2010-01-14-15-22-18 1000 465000 450605 -14422 LONG BPJMX 2010-01-14-10-07-26 2010-01-14-15-57-53 31000 147300 46080 -101666 BIDU PUT
As long as you learn from this, it's not cash wasted. If you repeat these actions you might as well let it all circle the bowl.
So learn from this, make changes and be the best you can be.
Good luck,
Red
You'll get to even soon enough no doubt.
Yeah definitaly, go over your mistakes, and adjust your strategy.
I rarely offer advice , but I think you should take some time off.
Unless you possess extremely strong discipline the likelyhood of revenge trading is extremely high.
Do something for a week or two which you really enjoy and then you will hopefully return in a good state of mind.
Also if in a certain type of market you do the best wait for that type of market instead of fighting a market you don't do as well in.
__________________
monee
Losing 28% of your account on one trade due to poor discipline is shit trading.
That 28% loss was over 60% of last years profits.
It would be a bit different if it was due to an event outside your control.
Can you not work out of a prop firm where a risk manager can monitor your daily P/L or something like that?
I have never worked at a firm, but i met someone recently who does, they told me if they are down a certain amount during the day they get a phone call and are told to stop trading and go home for the rest of the day.
did you start off on abad foot last year then made 400 some %?.. hey if it makes you feel any better im not getting off on the best foot myself.
I am a risk manager.. I can help you manage risk. Its exactly what the person above me said, I call the trader and tell them there risk percentage has been reached.
If interested, I can help. PM Me
Wrote a new title for you
Taking 310K to 4million by Year End 2010
I love the roller coaster! Go get 'em!
Quote from konviction:
did you start off on abad foot last year then made 400 some %?.. hey if it makes you feel any better im not getting off on the best foot myself.
I would suggest, just as an experiment, stop out and reverse at the zone where a trade's intended direction is breached. With BIDU as an example, on Thursday it opens and makes a new high around $450, stalls and pulls back a bit, you buy puts, BUT you stop out if there's continuation and price hits $451, AND you buy calls. If it's a false breakout, you close out the calls and buy puts again. You WILL end up catching the correct move and the worst case scenario is a manageable loss.
Quote from NoDoji:
I would suggest, just as an experiment, stop out and reverse at the zone where a trade's intended direction is breached. With BIDU as an example, on Thursday it opens and makes a new high around $450, stalls and pulls back a bit, you buy puts, BUT you stop out if there's continuation and price hits $451, AND you buy calls. If it's a false breakout, you close out the calls and buy puts again. You WILL end up catching the correct move and the worst case scenario is a manageable loss.
I dont really know why he feels the need to take on so much risk. I wish him well. It's good entertainment too .
These Momemtum stocks such as BIDU GOOG MA PCLN etc are widow makers if you dont have any discipline--i dont have much of it hence I dont trade em-when you play R:R game given the spreads and stuff trading DE JPM SPG etc work out the same as these high power names on steroids
just my 2c as always
After a record 2008, 2009 was my lowest earning year since I started trading full time in 2003, and I suspect this year will be even worse. Opportunities are fewer and moves are become more unpredictable. This is a time to survive and wait for better markets.
Your hyperaggressive gut-feel strategy was bound to have a major drawdown, be glad it wasn't an even bigger loss. You must scale back your position sizing. Taking massive intraday option positions is not a feasible sustainable strategy.
And get the idea of hitting four million out of your mind. Such a plan just might have worked in 2008 if you traded perfectly, but the trades are simply not there right now.
Neke is not an amateur and he has been around a block a few times. We all have taken up the ..... and such is the price for learning this craft. He needs to re group, re focus and re load. I week time off the screens would not hurt either.
Neke, go easy and remember that emotions need to be firmly in check before you go back behind the screen.
Good luck to you and keep your chin up.
Neke,
Do you even read these boards after you post your results. We all pretty much say the same thing after every loss as I'm sure you know. Although, you are getting less "the sky is falling" posts now. Do you just say eff it, stuff happens when you have big losses, or do you just suck it up and let it go knowing that you will inexorably move higher?
BTW, I'm sorry for your loss. You were simply wrong on BIDU, nothing other than being long could have saved you. This happens and you will be at new highs as your gut has brought you this far. This loss will work itself out over time. Have a beer.
Wilt
Quote from saxon22:
Neke is not an amateur
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
As long as you learn from this, it's not cash wasted. If you repeat these actions you might as well let it all circle the bowl.
So learn from this, make changes and be the best you can be.
Good luck,
Red
Quote from monee:
I rarely offer advice , but I think you should take some time off.
Unless you possess extremely strong discipline the likelyhood of revenge trading is extremely high.
Do something for a week or two which you really enjoy and then you will hopefully return in a good state of mind.
Also if in a certain type of market you do the best wait for that type of market instead of fighting a market you don't do as well in.
Quote from SomeYoungGuy:
Wrote a new title for you
Taking 310K to 4million by Year End 2010
I love the roller coaster! Go get 'em!
One of my cardinal rules of trading is to never short stocks hitting new highs.
Never never never never never never never!
Seven times never!
Let it be one of yours.
+-*/ Math_Wiz
Quote from NoDoji:
I would suggest, just as an experiment, stop out and reverse at the zone where a trade's intended direction is breached. With BIDU as an example, on Thursday it opens and makes a new high around $450, stalls and pulls back a bit, you buy puts, BUT you stop out if there's continuation and price hits $451, AND you buy calls. If it's a false breakout, you close out the calls and buy puts again. You WILL end up catching the correct move and the worst case scenario is a manageable loss.
Quote from Wilt:
Neke,
Do you even read these boards after you post your results. We all pretty much say the same thing after every loss as I'm sure you know. Although, you are getting less "the sky is falling" posts now. Do you just say eff it, stuff happens when you have big losses, or do you just suck it up and let it go knowing that you will inexorably move higher?
BTW, I'm sorry for your loss. You were simply wrong on BIDU, nothing other than being long could have saved you. This happens and you will be at new highs as your gut has brought you this far. This loss will work itself out over time. Have a beer.
Wilt
Quote from CommunistMonkey:
While I don't think Neke's an amateur, losing 28% of your account in one trade is 100% amateur move.
....
Quote from western:
After a record 2008, 2009 was my lowest earning year since I started trading full time in 2003, and I suspect this year will be even worse. Opportunities are fewer and moves are become more unpredictable. This is a time to survive and wait for better markets.
What if Neke had made, say, 20K from his bidu positions? Not a bad week right?
But to bring up an earlier point, with the size of positions taken in those high flyers -- 10, 20, 30K -- means little when on the other side you can lose 100K. Which begs the next question: do you usually need to avg down that hard to produce a good profit in a position? Have you ever added 50, then 100, then another 200 contracts to a winning position. Beware leverage masking randomness/edge deterioration.
Why not take down your max exposure in a position to say 5k or even 2k shares for a while? I know it's hard in a retail account where u can do what you please (the temptation is just too great, I've been there) -- have you ever thought about trading remotely with a prop account where risk parameters can be strictly enforced from the outside?
Neke, I feel your pain. $90k is a lot of money and the lesson from from this is so basic that I don't think it is worth $90k. You need to realize the money in your account is real money and you could have used the $90k to buy something real.
Average down may work before and it may have help you bring your account to this level, but you may want to think about your account size relative to your strategy. Average down is not too big of a deal if you have a small accont and can afford to lose it all, but now your account have grown to a good sum, average down is a huge deal. You need to rethink your trading strategy with a focus on capital preservation.
One good advice I have gotten is that trading is not a sprint race, but is a marathon. There will be a lot of people running faster than you and each time they passed, you will get tempted to out run them. So, don't get tempted.
PA
Quote from neke:
This time, it is activating my max stop rule for a trade. Sometimes it could get you out at the worst time (to see the trade subsequently go in your favor), but on the whole I think it will make me think hard before deciding to average in, and if that helps resolve that, I would be delighted.
Quote from neke:
Lost 102K in stock and 14K in options.
The money is real. To put it in perspective, you could have bought a nice car with that money.
I am sure there are some other successful traders telling us to not think about money when trading, but that is a complete BS! (Yes, I am a newbie and I am calling it a BS) It's too general and it doesn't tell you when and to what extend we have to not think about the money.
The bottom line is that we trade to have a good life. You are already got the good life. Don't throw it all away. Preserve your capital!
PA
Goodluck for 2010!
Btw why do you have a day job when you actively day trade a considerable amount? Considering your profits in earlier years, I can't think of any job which pays more than your profits.
Or maybe you are is a different time zone so that your job does not affects your trading?
Quote from ThePropTrader:
Here we go again.. geez... the difference between you and Neke is that he is one of those people that you and most others question how did they do it when they made it big. When trading, you must detach the value of money and treat it only as credits or points but if you look at the value of money in terms of what kind of car I could buy then you will be the person that all your life you will wonder how the guys driving a 100k car and living in 500k house do it. Sorry for being so blunt but I dont know how else to put it.. Think about this.
neke
somehow, regardless of how many times you may have seen it before,
what sticks out on a loss like this is portfolio management problems:
1) where was the overall portfolio disaster stop? There is never a reason to have a daily loss more than a few %. Avoiding losses is more important than making a profit. [this also goes for individual traders]. Most sage advice seems to be that it is best to limit the potential losses on a large account to 1-2%.
2) how would diversifying your positions help? How would diversifying your trading strategies help? Even mixing in lesser performing instruments/strategies has been shown by various research to help reduce longterm volatility/losses in a portfolio.
Other things is to try and be dollar neutral (balance shorts with longs as possible),
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 1/50 ended 01/16/2010
A disastrous start to the year. Down 99.5K (24%). It all happened on Thursday.
Looking for ways to overcome this inability to accept a loss. Right now, I am putting in place an auto-closure of any position.....
BTW: In hindsight, the BIDU short trade was unavoidable. The problem is not the news. It's general expectation! BIDU was historically a weak GOOG. Traders and hedge funds buy GOOG and short BIDU on a consistent basis. Problem arise when the fundamental relationship changed while everyone was in the wrong side of the market. This caused a huge short squeeze.
If Neke was on the right side (then I am sure a lot of other traders would have been on the right side as well, since they all make their decisions based on the same old stuff--chart), then BIDU wouldn't go up as it did.
The BIDU trade was unavoidable. The only thing that Neke could have done was minimize his loss.
PA
Quote from ThePropTrader:
...If you think that he made a mistake by averaging down into a losing trade then you should have said so in your first post instead of posting pictures of material things...
Quote from Pension_Admin:
The BIDU trade was unavoidable. The only thing that Neke could have done was minimize his loss.
PA
Quote from NoDoji:
The BIDU trade was not unavoidable. You can choose to trade or not trade at any time. You are absolutely right though about the loss minimization because of the nature of the setup
Quote from ThePropTrader:
The BIDU trade was avoidable. Technicals on a daily interval were oversold creating a bullish divirgence even though the prices where falling. If you carefully analyzed the chart you could have predicted a posible reveral, in this case a gap up and a masive bear trap.
neke, i was under the impression (maybe i am wrong) that your plan is to risk more once you have accumulated a cushion of gains for a given year. if this is true than on thursday you violated your position sizing in a major way which is a red flag that you have become reckless. of course, you have a cushion from the last year, so maybe you are still operating within your own size limits (crazy as they may be).
i hope you'll recover quickly.
Neke,
Regardless of what I have mentioned, I just want you to make the money back (either in a month, a year or in a few years), and not take those huge hits.
You are one of the most successful traders on ET and I know you will be able to do it!
PA
how come no one screams its papertrading when its a loss?
(this is sacarsm, since anyone does well ppl post how its just a papertrade)
Quote from Pension_Admin:
In hindsight, it's easy to go long on BIDU. Was it really possible to go long on BIDU without hindsight?
PA
Quote from ThePropTrader:
Yes. You dont need hindsight, a trade is a trade with proper risk management. Sure there was no way of knowing if a gap up was to follow the next day but based on technicals there was a high chance of a possible reversal before the gap up.
Quote from illiquid:
Yes, it was. If you're familiar with the stock, you would know the play was likely to the upside. To short something just because it's up "too much" is frankly an amateur impulse.
Quote from Pension_Admin:
It was definitely in an uptrend, but how much more could it go given that these items was floating in our subconscious mind:
1) BIDU could be a ponzi?
2) China's may be in a bubble?
3) BIDU was historically weak
4) Price is showing overbought
In hindsight, I think the best thing anyone could do is just sit out or cut loss quick. I think only the masters of the universe could have gone long on that.
PA
Quote from wutang:
If all those things are so obvious then there's not a lot of money to be made on the downside but if it does the unexpected and goes up you'll get lots of short covering further increasing price. Which trade had a better R:R? The herd get's slaughtered, right?
Quote from Pension_Admin:
In hindsight, it's easy to go long on BIDU. Was it really possible to go long on BIDU without hindsight?
PA
The third/fourth leg up is usually the most powerful move on all time high, why? Because most people like Neke was trapped to think it is too high and were short, already double/triple down and have to cover, fueling the move explosively. It has nothing to do with News/Upgrades etc. News only caused the gap and it can go either way from there, and if it does not go down hard, it will definitely go up harder as soon as short stops are triggered.
Nodoji is correct; the best way is to wait lower high with tight stop, since usually there is no way to know how many “legs” the stock has, like SNDK did lately.
Classic example of the danger of averaging down. You have the large positions on when it moves again you the hardest since more people are wrong with you the same time and have to bail.
Short term/Day trading is a physiological warfare. Think how to take advantage of your opponent and you will win, and the most importantly, if you are wrong and trapped by your opponent, escape with a small loss, and NEVER average down.
Quote from NoDoji:
...Of course it was possible because the vast MAJORITY of traders were going long BIDU on Thursday, which is why the price was rising....
Quote from Billybob543:
haha..you clowns never learn. The smartest thing I heard someone say last year was that they were quitting trading. Then, it dawned on me that I didn't personally know one single person who made money from retail trading and kept it all. They all eventually gave it back.
I quit trading last year, and that was the best move I ever made in my life. I took the rest of my account and opened up a business that is taking off really really well. Neke, I say take the money you have left and put it in a "real" business. The worst thing that you can do is allow the market to beat you by taking back all the money you stole from it.
Quote from Pension_Admin:
I totally agree about the confirmation and how stop loss need to be set.
However, I believe price move not because traders were going long, but because stop losses were getting hit. Thursday was a short squeeze.
PA
Quote from Hockey Trader:
Just curious...What kind of business did you get into?
Quote from NoDoji:
The reason for traders going long doesn't matter, whether it's institutional investors taking advantage of buying BIDU "low" (many probably expect BIDU to easily hit the 500's now), or whether it's the shorts who didn't take their profits when BIDU was hugely oversold earlier last week.
Now put yourself in the position of the more professional short-sellers who wake up to BIDU's gap Wednesday morning and follow the disaster-management plan of waiting a few minutes after the open before reacting. Price ticks down in pre-market, then falls at the opening bell. The smart shorts will watch carefully for support to be established, realize that this is game-changing news and start to cover once that support is established. Hey, sh*t happens, cut your losses (or at least cover part of the position) and move on.
Now the remaining short sellers who are still holding (hoping this is just a reactionary fluke and price will retrace at least 50% of the gap to the 420 area) will likely place their stops above the opening price.
You are absolutely right, PA, about the short squeeze that will hit if price breaks through that level. That's where the stops get triggered, the panic sets in, and the trend followers become filled with glee as they pile into the breakout.
Quote from Pension_Admin:
I understand now. It's a great way to analyze the situation by putting ourselves into other traders' shoes. It make sense!
Thanks!
PA
Wow, a lot of trading advice ITT from guys that have never put together $410k in the first place..
neke is a talented gambler, using his experience to make huge bets for huge returns. He's not making long term investments after extensive due diligence.
What if neke's bet turned into an immediate win of equal proportion? We would all be saying Way to go! and wishing we were him. No one would be worrying about his stop losses if he nailed a 25% gain in four days.
Go get 'em neke!
Quote from Billybob543:
Then, it dawned on me that I didn't personally know one single person who made money from retail trading and kept it all.
__________________
One dollar at a time
Quote from SomeYoungGuy:
What if neke's bet turned into an immediate win of equal proportion? We would all be saying Way to go! and wishing we were him. No one would be worrying about his stop losses if he nailed a 25% gain in four days.
I'm almost out of words, although I want to be encouraging losing 25% of your capital in a single week is something I can only fathom in world disaster events, and this is clearly not the case.
Not sure what to say Neke, best of luck getting yourself back up but it seems your risk variables need some serious tweaking.
A most sincere prayer to you.
No Heat
What I have learned the hard way is no matter how smart, sophisticated or experienced a trader is, all successful traders that I follow have one common theme: When they realize they have made a mistake, they exit, fast, no excuses, no rationalizing, no debate, no wringing hands, exit, done. That is the sign of a professional in my opinion.
Without a trading plan, the market will sit silently and let you crank out numerous small gains and wait, sit and wait patiently for that one day, that one trade that takes it all back and then some. The only thing that stands in the way of your exit is your pride and ego and at the end of the day you have left neither your pride, your ego, or your money...
"You got to be able to get out while the getting out is good...You can't ignore an error. Once you realize that you have made an error, the best thing is to get out of that error and start again, fresh, and that is what a good trader does." Leo Melamed
As far as averaging down on a losing trade, in the 1987 PBS documentary "The Trader", Paul Tudor Jones has a note on his wall: "Losers Average Losers"
http://trading.jr-print.net/media/v...jones-thumb.jpg
Quote from srmccoy:
What I have learned the hard way is no matter how smart, sophisticated or experienced a trader is, all successful traders that I follow have one common theme: When they realize they have made a mistake, they exit, fast, no excuses, no rationalizing, no debate, no wringing hands, exit, done. That is the sign of a professional in my opinion.
Without a trading plan, the market will sit silently and let you crank out numerous small gains and wait, sit and wait patiently for that one day, that one trade that takes it all back and then some. The only thing that stands in the way of your exit is your pride and ego and at the end of the day you have left neither your pride, your ego, or your money...
"You got to be able to get out while the getting out is good...You can't ignore an error. Once you realize that you have made an error, the best thing is to get out of that error and start again, fresh, and that is what a good trader does." Leo Melamed
As far as averaging down on a losing trade, in the 1987 PBS documentary "The Trader", Paul Tudor Jones has a note on his wall: "Losers Average Losers"
http://trading.jr-print.net/media/v...jones-thumb.jpg
Quote from srmccoy:
What I have learned the hard way is no matter how smart, sophisticated or experienced a trader is, all successful traders that I follow have one common theme: When they realize they have made a mistake, they exit, fast, no excuses, no rationalizing, no debate, no wringing hands, exit, done. That is the sign of a professional in my opinion.
Without a trading plan, the market will sit silently and let you crank out numerous small gains and wait, sit and wait patiently for that one day, that one trade that takes it all back and then some. The only thing that stands in the way of your exit is your pride and ego and at the end of the day you have left neither your pride, your ego, or your money...
"You got to be able to get out while the getting out is good...You can't ignore an error. Once you realize that you have made an error, the best thing is to get out of that error and start again, fresh, and that is what a good trader does." Leo Melamed
As far as averaging down on a losing trade, in the 1987 PBS documentary "The Trader", Paul Tudor Jones has a note on his wall: "Losers Average Losers"
http://trading.jr-print.net/media/v...jones-thumb.jpg
Quote from Pension_Admin:
Great video. Here is another one I found:
Quote from neke:
You only have to get rich ONCE? What is the cut-off?
That Warren Buffet line was amazing... Sacrificing a lot of what you need for what you don't "need"..
Neke.. imagine an equity chart with steady nice rises interrupted by periodic nasty waterfalls.... Now imagine eliminating the waterfalls...
There has to be a broker out there with daily risk management you can set and change only with a phone call and only once a day... I say this because you WILL override even your automatic system in the "MoM" ... Moment of Madness.
__________________
Trade Less
"Saw the follow-up rally on BIDU on Thursday, and thought it was overdone at 449. Forgot all the harm I have suffered in BIDU on previous occasions, and that this was just a day to expiration. Bought 50 JAN 450 PUTS @ 6.50, as well as shorting 500 shares. Then came another surge and I added another 60 contracts @ 5.80, and extra 500 in shares. Watched all morning for exit point, but instead came another surge by noon, and in vengeance bought 200 contracts @ 4.00. That was the last act of desperation. Watched as the stock climbed and did not look back, while the premiums kept eroding. Finally closed all 310 contracts at prices from 1.80 down to 1.30 as the bids kept disappearing when I put in my limit order to get out. Lost 102K in stock and 14K in options."
Numbers do not add up. You mean" lost 102K in options and 14K in stock"?
Am I the only one who does not think Neke actually made too much mistake? NEKE's all trading system is based on "mean reversion", so if he sticks to his method, he had to short (or put) BIDU. NEKE used a lot of average down method in the past, and that's how he has grown his capital in the past. Why last year he made $72K in a week he was a hero, and now he lost $100K he became not disciplined? He is actually very disciplined. He had no fear to use the method that has been proven working in the past few years for him.
Yes, you can say he should cut loss quicker, but what if BIDU suddenly changed direction right after he cut loss? Believe me, this happens to us often.
Yes, you can say he should not have that much risk exposure, but you have to realize he is aiming from 410K to 4 million in a year. In order to get that much gain, he has to have that much risk exposure. Sorry, risk and reward are always tied up together.
If NEKE is only willing to have 3% drawdown each time, trust me, he could only grow his account from $100K to maybe $150K in two years. NEKE is NEKE only because he is willing to take huge risks that many of you can not take.
I can't say whether NEKE's method will work for the long run. I have a hunch it will. At least his number for now is far better than most traders I know.
freewilly
Quote from freewilly:
"Saw the follow-up rally on BIDU on Thursday, and thought it was overdone at 449. Forgot all the harm I have suffered in BIDU on previous occasions, and that this was just a day to expiration. Bought 50 JAN 450 PUTS @ 6.50, as well as shorting 500 shares. Then came another surge and I added another 60 contracts @ 5.80, and extra 500 in shares. Watched all morning for exit point, but instead came another surge by noon, and in vengeance bought 200 contracts @ 4.00. That was the last act of desperation. Watched as the stock climbed and did not look back, while the premiums kept eroding. Finally closed all 310 contracts at prices from 1.80 down to 1.30 as the bids kept disappearing when I put in my limit order to get out. Lost 102K in stock and 14K in options."
Numbers do not add up. You mean" lost 102K in options and 14K in stock"?
Am I the only one who does not think Neke actually made too much mistake? NEKE's all trading system is based on "mean reversion", so if he sticks to his method, he had to short (or put) BIDU. NEKE used a lot of average down method in the past, and that's how he has grown his capital in the past. Why last year he made $72K in a week he was a hero, and now he lost $100K he became not disciplined? He is actually very disciplined. He had no fear to use the method that has been proven working in the past few years for him.
Yes, you can say he should cut loss quicker, but what if BIDU suddenly changed direction right after he cut loss? Believe me, this happens to us often.
Yes, you can say he should not have that much risk exposure, but you have to realize he is aiming from 410K to 4 million in a year. In order to get that much gain, he has to have that much risk exposure. Sorry, risk and reward are always tied up together.
If NEKE is only willing to have 3% drawdown each time, trust me, he could only grow his account from $100K to maybe $150K in two years. NEKE is NEKE only because he is willing to take huge risks that many of you can not take.
I can't say whether NEKE's method will work for the long run. I have a hunch it will. At least his number for now is far better than most traders I know.
freewilly
Trading can't be taught, it can only be experienced. Your experienced you just had will make you one heck of a trader going forward if you learn from it. The last couple of years you have already did what 95% of traders can't do, which is to grow an account year over year. Most all great traders go bust a couple of times or have big draw downs before they move on to new equity highs. Get the risk management under control and you will have another great year!
Neke,
Great trade record so far, and congrats for the success to date.
Have ever considered doing some income generation plays, e.g. covered calls, vertical credit spreads, and so on? Your record and trading account is probably envied by most people here including myself, but i can't help but wonder if part of your account can be put to more stable gains. Perhaps you already have separate account/s that already do so. If so, pls ignore this.
In the last few months of 2009, the indexes were basically going sideways, and it was a fantastic time for option sellers and those doing vertical credit spreads. Certainly 2010 will have its ups and downs, i'm just wondering if might be considering to add some option selling to your trading. Think SPX, RUT, NDX.
Thanks for reading, and i wish you continued success.
Quote from SomeYoungGuy:
Wow, a lot of trading advice ITT from guys that have never put together $410k in the first place..
neke is a talented gambler, using his experience to make huge bets for huge returns. He's not making long term investments after extensive due diligence.
What if neke's bet turned into an immediate win of equal proportion? We would all be saying Way to go! and wishing we were him. No one would be worrying about his stop losses if he nailed a 25% gain in four days.
Go get 'em neke!
On a continued note:
Short term trading contains the requirement of being able to oversee the long term consequences of your repeated actions. Because short term traders tend to be farsighted they let their actions be guided by short term losses or succeses as displayed by their p/l sheets, while they're unable to see the long term consequences of those actions being repeated thousands of times.
Neke, if you want to get rich, write a book about your secret to success now. It's a lot less risky than risking your capital. Given how popular your journal is, I am sure your book will be a success.
PA
Quote from Pension_Admin:
Neke, if you want to get rich, write a book about your secret to success now. It's a lot less risky than risking your capital. Given how popular your journal is, I am sure your book will be a success.
PA
Exactly. The 102K loss was from the options and, contrary to what some have said, was totally avoidable. Because there was no valid reason for a trade of that size to begin with (only the thought that BIDU "was overdone at 449") and one day options allowed no room for error on top of that. Not listening to what the market was saying and compounding the initial mistakes by buying 60 more dying puts and then 200 more only exacerbated the problem. I say none of this in hindsight because I considered BIDU puts based on the same thought that the stock was "overdone" but ultimately passed, thinking it was more of a gamble than a trade.
That doesn't mean one should NEVER add to a losing position. There are times when it makes sense IMO... but only when you have a sound reason for your trade in the first place AND you believe your original rationale for the trade is still valid AND your trade is structured so there's time for it to play out AND you're not risking the farm.
Neke -- I mean none of this with any disrespect. I'm just surprised you'd make a trade like this and would add that I think it would have been a bad trade even if you'd made money on it.
Quote from freewilly:
Numbers do not add up. You mean" lost 102K in options and 14K in stock"?
Quote from crash n burn:
LMAO
no one gets rich by publishing a book, let alone a shallow book aimed at compulsive gamblers, such as the one you hinted here.
Quote from freewilly:
Am I the only one who does not think Neke actually made too much mistake? NEKE's all trading system is based on "mean reversion", so if he sticks to his method, he had to short (or put) BIDU.
Why? The reason for BIDU gapping up was still in force... one could argue increasingly so as time went on based on the news flow.
Quote from NoDoji:
Yes, he had to short BIDU. As an RTM trader he simply cannot allow a gap-and-go setup like BIDU to remain untraded!
Quote from Trader666:
Why? The reason for BIDU gapping up was still in force... one could argue increasingly so as time went on based on the news flow.
Buying near-expiration options is indeed a flaw in his execution. There's a fundamental flaw in his trading method however that even perfect execution cannot repair. The flaw is that securities are not necessarily mean reversing while a mean reversion strategy will never be able to tell you when they're not. In other words, approaching the markets from a mean reversion paradigm will ensure that the market will always be obscured from your view. After all, if you can't tell when you're wrong, what can you tell?
Some suggestions were made to use a form of money management to determine when he's wrong. A stop-loss that's triggered when two percent of his account is lost was suggested for example. This approach aims to plug the holes in his method but isn't able to solve its fundamental flaw. It will simply push the rents backwards by increasing his percentage of unprofitable trades.
Most people here criticizing neke have no idea what it takes to make big money FAST. Sure, you can be conservative and eek out profits steadily but SLOWLY. It is clear that neke wants to make money FAST. In order to do that, you have to have 2 things.
1. An edge. If you have an edge, you will make money.
2. Balls. If you don't bet big, you will have a hard time making big returns. You have to be able to deal with big drawdowns if you want to make high returns.
Seems to me that neke has both, and is willing to risk big sums to make big returns. That's how you make big money. Not by overexcessive risk control.
Quote from MarketOwl:
2. Balls. If you don't bet big, you will have a hard time making big returns. You have to be able to deal with big drawdowns if you want to make high returns.
Quote from MarketOwl:
Most people here criticizing neke have no idea what it takes to make big money FAST. Sure, you can be conservative and eek out profits steadily but SLOWLY. It is clear that neke wants to make money FAST. In order to do that, you have to have 2 things.
1. An edge. If you have an edge, you will make money.
2. Balls. If you don't bet big, you will have a hard time making big returns. You have to be able to deal with big drawdowns if you want to make high returns.
[QUOTE]Quote from NoDoji:
Why would you have to deal with big drawdowns if you have an EDGE???
Because the edge is not 100%. Even with a very good 3-2 win ratio on 1 to 1 risk reward trades, you will have occasional bad streaks of more losses than wins. That's where you get big drawdowns.
By the way, have you ever traded $400K like neke? You sound like a know it all but don't have the results backing up your words.
Quote from Millionaire:
No the correct approach is to make smaller bets but more of them.
Risk 2% on each of 10 trades instead 20% in one.
Neke is making 1000+ trades a year, he doesnt need to bet big to make huge returns.
Great recipe for LOSING BIG MONEY FAST.
An edge doesn't guarantee you squat if you squander it with a series of oversize "bets" and bad decisions.
Quote from MarketOwl:
Most people here criticizing neke have no idea what it takes to make big money FAST. Sure, you can be conservative and eek out profits steadily but SLOWLY. It is clear that neke wants to make money FAST. In order to do that, you have to have 2 things.
1. An edge. If you have an edge, you will make money.
2. Balls. If you don't bet big, you will have a hard time making big returns. You have to be able to deal with big drawdowns if you want to make high returns.
Seems to me that neke has both, and is willing to risk big sums to make big returns. That's how you make big money. Not by overexcessive risk control.
Quote from MarketOwl:
[QUOTE]Quote from NoDoji:
Why would you have to deal with big drawdowns if you have an EDGE???
Because the edge is not 100%. Even with a very good 3-2 win ratio on 1 to 1 risk reward trades, you will have occasional bad streaks of more losses than wins. That's where you get big drawdowns.
By the way, have you ever traded $400K like neke? You sound like a know it all but don't have the results backing up your words.
Quote from MarketOwl:
Most people here criticizing neke have no idea what it takes to make big money FAST. Sure, you can be conservative and eek out profits steadily but SLOWLY. It is clear that neke wants to make money FAST. In order to do that, you have to have 2 things.
1. An edge. If you have an edge, you will make money.
2. Balls. If you don't bet big, you will have a hard time making big returns. You have to be able to deal with big drawdowns if you want to make high returns.
Seems to me that neke has both, and is willing to risk big sums to make big returns. That's how you make big money. Not by overexcessive risk control.
Quote from lescor:
If you're going to go that route then you better have: 3. Good luck. Positive edge + betting big sounds like the path to riches until you get more consecutive losing trades than you bargained for.
Quote from MarketOwl:
Yes, it is a dangerous path. No doubt about it. A bigger edge makes it less dangerous. But following the Kelly formula, if you have a big edge, its best to bet big in order to increase the account size at the fastest rate. After big losses, one must of course adjust bet size down with the newly shrunken account base, and after big wins, increase bet size.
Quote from MarketOwl:
Yes, it is a dangerous path. No doubt about it. A bigger edge makes it less dangerous. But following the Kelly formula, if you have a big edge, its best to bet big in order to increase the account size at the fastest rate. After big losses, one must of course adjust bet size down with the newly shrunken account base, and after big wins, increase bet size.
Quote from neke:
Lost 102K in stock and 14K in options.
Here is a video I view regularly to keep my emotion in check.
Perry let his emotion got to him and got wiped out. The market works the exact same way. It will get you to make a mistake, wipe you out, and would not hesitate to insult you afterward (either in a form of a message board posting or some other kind).
PA
Quote from neke:
.......I need to work on extricating myself emotionally from a trade, and let the rules be the rule.
It would be nice to have a broker with trading platform that enforces risk management rules beyond merely checking buying power or day-trade buying power before an entry is allowed. Ideally I as a user should be able to set my maximum per-trade loss at, say 6%, and the the trading platform at the point of initiation of position should check whether there is a probability of say 10% or more that could be hit intra-day on that position, and reject the order because the risk is above the parameters I chose. Any request to change the parameter (from 6% to say 10%) would take a number of days to be active (so I do not change it on emotion of the moment). I could develop a platform like that, but the bigger issue would be ability to override it (by going straight to the brokers interface), which is why I would like the rules to be bound to the account -- broker side. The summary of this ramble is that I am disappointed there are not enough options for risk-setting / automated risk-management on available broker platforms.
__________________
Lojze
Quote from neke:
It would be nice to have a broker with trading platform that enforces risk management rules beyond merely checking buying power or day-trade buying power before an entry is allowed.
...
The summary of this ramble is that I am disappointed there are not enough options for risk-setting / automated risk-management on available broker platforms.
Quote from lojze:
Neke and other active traders, as this is not available, what is an option to put emotions out of the game?
Quote from Mike805:
This is BS. Assume responsibility for not controlling your risk.
If anything, you should be disappointed in yourself for not planning prior to, and, enforcing strict risk controls during the BIDU trade.
Quote from Mike805:
This is BS. Assume responsibility for not controlling your risk.
If anything, you should be disappointed in yourself for not planning prior to, and, enforcing strict risk controls during the BIDU trade.
Mike
Quote from neke:
Of course I assume responsibility for my action. But if a feature could be helpful for a trader, what is wrong with requesting it? It's like saying brokers should not have a stop-loss order feature because people should bear responsibility for when to exit a trade. If it can be automated effortlessly, why leave it to the manual and subjective?
Just curious why you were trading options controlling 13 mil of underlying on a 400k account ?
What can be learned from this is
NEVER FALL IN LOVE WITH A POSITION,
no matter how right you think you are.
All Neke needs to limit his largest losses is to write a program that prohibits access to his trading account on the 3 days into options expiration. Neke, deduct your losses over the past couple years during these 3 days each month and let us know how much additional $$$ you'd have in your account with such a feature in place.
I would like to know whats stopping neke from trading in the pits.
Quote from crash n burn:
risk 1% per trade, not more than 2 trades per day
can you do it?
if not, then move to another venture
Quote from MarketOwl:
If you risk just 1% per trade, you will be able to take 410K to 4 million in 20 years.... if you are good. The point is to get rich when you can enjoy it, not when you are wearing geriatric diapers.
If you see a very compelling trade, that you have been awaiting for years, to bet 1% would be stupidity, an act of cowardice and self doubt. You've got to bet big on the compelling trades to make big money. 1% or 2% risk on trades will preserve capital, but won't make you rich.
Quote from Mike805:
To me, its been obvious you need to remove yourself from parts of the trading process. Personally, as I've said a few times over the years, I think this is best done through automation and subsequent strict adherence to all rules. That said, automation is the method I've choosen so it may not be suitable to all. At this point, seeing as how you've choosen to proceed without proper risk controls, I am inclined to believe you enjoy the gambling aspect of trading, which is fine given your goals, but, this is an easy thing to change, given that you really want to change it...
Mike
__________________
Trade Less
Quote from Rashid_G.:
Isn't the said broker "feature" automation EXCEPT it's a "bit" harder to override? We do have to admit though that for every LTCM there are others that have trade full lifetimes successfully. Some (Livermore.. etc) are just doomed to, at some point, go a little mad and do something crazy and this tendency NEVER leaves. Lifelong successful trading means NEVER gambling... still trying to eliminate my version of this.
Main point here is trader x (fill in your name here...) WILL do it again in varying degrees.. As he currently is it is a given, so, barring a transplant what else can be done to save such a trader?
Otherwise he'll need to start shooting for 200k up weeks to make this blip look normal on the equity chart...
Quote from Mike805:
quantifiy absolutely everything....
__________________
Trade Less
"Lifelong successful trading means NEVER gambling"
My version of solving this has been to quantifiy absolutely everything. Henceforth everytime I make a decision, I know exactly what my odds are... [/B]
Re: Taking 410K to 4million by Year End 2010
Without Disrespect, the way NEKE trades, it is inevitable that large drawn down will occur and blowing out of the game is very possible. Every poster was cheering on him last year when he made 46.5K (20%) in one week and no one criticized how he gained that 20%. He Tripled down on GS options (50+50+50) and make 16K, double down on AIG options (300+200) and make 37K, and reversing on GOOG options on the fly losing 18K. All these trades are all emotional trades without planning and risk control, YET NO ONE questioned him.
Please pay attention to ILLIQUID’s posts. Quote: Beware leverage masking randomness/edge deterioration. This is an example why many aspiring traders fail -- they just don't know how to learn how to learn, if you get my meaning. Maybe call it metatrading. They just see the numbers and results, and don't care exactly how one gets there. They cannot distinguish between leverage and edge. They cannot project into the future just how damaging being "apparently" successful at trading can be, after you quit the day job and get all nice and comfy in your trading chair. They don't see how and why trading one's own account to put food on the table has nothing to do with percentage returns, managing opm, or setting some insane target to impress others.
I am sure NEKE will come out of this a better, stronger and more consistent trader.
Quote from neke:
07-17-09 07:26 PM
Weekly Update for week 27/50 ended 07/18/2009
Nice week. Up 46.5K (20%). Hope the bottom is in place.
The week started on a good course on Monday, buying GS 145 calls after the bullish comments from one Meredith Whitney (the market apparently believes her spot-on call on citigroup nearly 2 years ago was due to her extraordinary genius), buying 50 contracts @ 5.5, averaged another 50 @ 4.90, and yet another 50 @ 4.70, closing all later at 6.10 for a net of +16K. Regret not holding on for more. As a hedge against this, bought 300 contracts of AIG 14 PUT about the same time (on the second day of its massive bounce), which I closed for a loss of 7.5K.
Then came good Tuesday. Watched AIG up in pre-market pretending to be set for a third day of rally. Couldn't short in Ameritrade, set a trigger to buy 300 AIG 14 put @ 0.70 if the stock price is above 15.50 after the market opens. Checked after market opened, and saw it had executed, and the stock was still rising. Added 200 AIG 15 PUT @ 0.99. Shortly before 10am the stock started descending, accelerating a few minutes later. Closed AIGSO @ 1.78 netting 15K, and then 10 minutes later closed AIGSN @ 1.45 netting 22K.
Was set to close the week on high note, but then came expiration Friday, and it wasn't good. Got Whipsawed on GOOG options. First bought 50 GOOG 430 PUT @ 4. Closed out at 2, losing 10K, then reversed and bought 80 GOOG 430 CALL @ 2.00, closed out later @ 1.05, losing 8K. The day I learn not to be complacent after a home-run, that is the day my account will start shooting thru the roof.
LoveTrading, you quoted a beautiful illustration of my recommendation to Neke. It was expiration week and his Monday and Tuesday trades were great. That should've been the end of his trading that week
Am I the only one who does not think Neke actually made too much mistake?
Quote from ThePropTrader:
Losing 100k on a trade on a 5M account might have been understandable...
ThePropTrader wrote:
"Assume you made 200k on that BIDU trade after you've heavily averaged down. The next time you would be in a similar loser situtation you would average down even more becuase you remember how much you made the last time you averaged down but this time the stock rips several $ more in less than 5 minutes on yet another news and never turns around in time until you blow through your 400k capital and get a huge margin call that you cant pay. Now you are definetly screwed! This type of trading is a recepie for suicide."
I can't stop myself from relating this story.
I had friend who had an account worth 4 million dollars at the top in March 2000. She traded the hot stocks. for years, since 96, anytime she would get into a position that moved against her she would double down (sometimes several times, sometimes holding positions for months, meeting margin calls (small) by writing checks from the equity line of credit she had on 2 houses she had bought a few years earlier (the houses had zoomed in value in the California market). WHen the big sell-off occurred in the spring of 2000, she got wiped out by a margin call, but still had about a million dollars worth of equity left in the 2 houses she had bought. (She claimed they had sold out her positions without even giving her the opportunity to meet the call, a few years later the case made it to arbitration and she lost).
She vowed to come back, and eventually, by the Oct 2007 top she had recouped alot, she had a 900K account and 1.5 million in home equity.
Through 2008, As prices declined, she went right back to her old ways, doubling, tripling down. on ridculous stocks that had lost 80% of the value from their 52 week highs. Stocks that HAD TO bounce (and the oversized positons she had in place would bring her back in a hurry)..
On Wednesday 11-19-2008, after the close, she called to demand that I tell her that I expected the market to turn up. I told her we were close to a short-term bounce but prices hadn't turned yet.
She was at the end of her rope, in the course of the year she had maxed out ALL the equity in both of her houses. She had maxed out her credit cards with cash advances to the tune of 165K, and on that Wednesday she had another margin call that had forced her to do 2 things: she had to shunt stocks from her brother's account into her own AND she had to get a transfer of funds from her mother's life savings into her account (to meet the margin call that day (different broker than the case that went to arbitration).
The next day, Thursday, November 20, 2008 she got the margin call that she couldn't meet and due to the excessive borrowing and relative worthlessness of the positons held, she virtually bankrupted herself.
Adding to a losing position is a dangerous thing to do.
Quote from vertigo3:
ThePropTrader wrote:
"Assume you made 200k on that BIDU trade after you've heavily averaged down. The next time you would be in a similar loser situtation you would average down even more becuase you remember how much you made the last time you averaged down but this time the stock rips several $ more in less than 5 minutes on yet another news and never turns around in time until you blow through your 400k capital and get a huge margin call that you cant pay. Now you are definetly screwed! This type of trading is a recepie for suicide."
I can't stop myself from relating this story.
I had friend who had an account worth 4 million dollars at the top in March 2000. She traded the hot stocks. for years, since 96, anytime she would get into a position that moved against her she would double down (sometimes several times, sometimes holding positions for months, meeting margin calls (small) by writing checks from the equity line of credit she had on 2 houses she had bought a few years earlier (the houses had zoomed in value in the California market). WHen the big sell-off occurred in the spring of 2000, she got wiped out by a margin call, but still had about a million dollars worth of equity left in the 2 houses she had bought. (She claimed they had sold out her positions without even giving her the opportunity to meet the call, a few years later the case made it to arbitration and she lost).
She vowed to come back, and eventually, by the Oct 2007 top she had recouped alot, she had a 900K account and 1.5 million in home equity.
Through 2008, As prices declined, she went right back to her old ways, doubling, tripling down. on ridculous stocks that had lost 80% of the value from their 52 week highs. Stocks that HAD TO bounce (and the oversized positons she had in place would bring her back in a hurry)..
On Wednesday 11-19-2008, after the close, she called to demand that I tell her that I expected the market to turn up. I told her we were close to a short-term bounce but prices hadn't turned yet.
She was at the end of her rope, in the course of the year she had maxed out ALL the equity in both of her houses. She had maxed out her credit cards with cash advances to the tune of 165K, and on that Wednesday she had another margin call that had forced her to do 2 things: she had to shunt stocks from her brother's account into her own AND she had to get a transfer of funds from her mother's life savings into her account (to meet the margin call that day (different broker than the case that went to arbitration).
The next day, Thursday, November 20, 2008 she got the margin call that she couldn't meet and due to the excessive borrowing and relative worthlessness of the positons held, she virtually bankrupted herself.
Adding to a losing position is a dangerous thing to do.
vertigo3 + ThePropTrader, that's a sorry tale, if I ever heard one. She literally lost her home....Shocking.
Why can't people just trade on sim till they convince themselves that their system works?
My worthless impression is that focus should be more on flawless execution of a system instead of on results.
Quote from neke:
Piece of belated consolation for me: BIDU is trading now at $442
__________________
Trade Less
Her system did work...for a time. I'd say a system that increases your account several times over in 4 years is a successful one for those particular market conditions. Unfortunately, it was a 50 ton Brontosaurus that was ill equipped (or unwilling) to adapt when the comet came. What was missing was the risk control and also a dash of common sense. Also, assume you did start sim trading in 96/97...given the results you experienced, I doubt anyone (even cautious traders) would continue for more than 6 months given those results.
Jesse Livermore (who blew out entire accounts more than once) took a bunch of his profits and opened a trust fund with enough money to keep his family comfortable in the event he ever blew up again (he did).
Quote from TheGoonior:
Jesse Livermore (who blew out entire accounts more than once) took a bunch of his profits and opened a trust fund with enough money to keep his family comfortable in the event he ever blew up again (he did).
__________________
200to2million.blogspot.com
seangmclaughlin.blogspot.com
Quote from Sean McLaughlin:
Probably the finest piece of advice offered on this thread. It should be everyone's goal here to at the very least do what Livermore did with regards to permanently withdrawing some profits to set aside to take care of basic needs - forever.
I've a long way to go. But one of my goals is to put $3 million away earning a safe 5% interest. This will pay me $150K a year - with no effort - forever. My family can live on that.
In my mind, if I've accomplished nothing but this, then I win.
Quote from neke:
Piece of belated consolation for me: BIDU is trading now at $442
Quote from NoDoji:
You said you planned to swing trade more this year. If you'd bought 50 FEBRUARY puts last week instead of the rapidly expiring Jan ones, you'd have collected a nice profit today.
Quote from NoDoji:
You said you planned to swing trade more this year. If you'd bought 50 FEBRUARY puts last week instead of the rapidly expiring Jan ones, you'd have collected a nice profit today.
Quote from neke:
Piece of belated consolation for me: BIDU is trading now at $442
For the "Hindsight is 20/20" comments, come on!
Time decay occurs right before your eyes and how many times has Neke done this?
Quote from TraderZones:
If you blow out your account, it is no guarantee that it won't go deeply negative. People who do highly leveraged trading will find that blowout does not mean your obligation ends at 0, under the circumstances of a huge unexpected move against them (like 9/11, when the markets were closed for a few days). and that $3 million account won't necessarily be safe.
__________________
You can do it!!
while hindsight is 20/20 - no disagreement there - there could also be a case made within the risk management framework for allowing swing trading options for more than a day/less than a week with a reasonable (conservative, etc) amount of ones capital. maybe not gonna make 4mill by the end of the year like this (esp. cuz would have had to use Feb options in this case), but could get out at pre-defined risk point or ones profit target (assuming the technical case for trade was there and not invalidated, by whatever measure you use)
not to jump aboard the opinion express, and while i'm sure you know this, it never hurts to say it out loud, as these two axioms have helped me:
define your time frame and define your risk.
Quote from neke:
Sad story, but that insanity occurred only intra-day, and EOD I was flat. Besides, even after the last entry in the options, my size was 147K (about 35% of account). Not to justify my action, but I KNEW I had to stop. I could easily have added extra.
Piece of belated consolation for me: BIDU is trading now at $442
Was neke trading like this before he made his first 100k? or was the 100k from savings?
Quote from konviction:
Was neke trading like this before he made his first 100k? or was the 100k from savings?
Trading is gambling, doesn't matter how much risk you throw in the equation. If chris ferguson, Johnny Chan, or any other pro gambler only risk 3% of their chips, or 50%, it's still gambling on an uncertain outcome.
Quote from GG1972:
Another illustrious contribution -- do you really think the guy who made and put the $3 million into that account would be an idiot and if you read as much as you post the guy was talking about "relative" safe returns averaging 5%. He wasnt talking about trading.
Wow. You both could not be more wrong. The reason for BIDU gapping up was still fully in force at the time of the trades. "Betting" against that with 300+ expiring option contracts because you felt BIDU "was overdone at 449" was reckless and totally avoidable, without any hindsight. Ever hear of giving a trade time to work? Talk about backing one's self into a corner with no room for error...
Quote from Mike805:
What is this; the "would'a could'a should'a" thread?
Come on now, the flaw in neke's process has nothing to do with trade selection.
Quote from No.Heat:
No disrespect No Doji but hindsight is 20/20, looks so obvious after the fact yet proves nothing since the past shows everything of pretty much every theory out there.
Hindsight or no hindsight. What matter is, who actually capitalized by going long on BIDU on Thursday given the "obvious" situation.
Quote from Trader666:
Wow. You both could not be more wrong. The reason for BIDU gapping up was still fully in force at the time of the trades. "Betting" against that with 300+ expiring option contracts because you felt BIDU "was overdone at 449" was reckless and totally avoidable, without any hindsight. Ever hear of giving a trade time to work? Talk about backing one's self into a corner with no room for error...
Which is it?
Quote from Mike805:
One man's right is another man's wrong...
...there are general best practices when it comes to risk management that apply to everyone, no matter the style of trading.
Quote from Mike805:
Taking the trade in itself wasn't reckless, its the size and risk management that was reckless.
Quote from Mike805:
the flaw in neke's process has nothing to do with trade selection
Quote from Trader666:
Which is it?
Size and risk management are, in part, a function of what's being traded.
It's not that simple. One can't say that size on a 400K is ALWAYS reckless... the rationale behind the trade and what's being traded are also critical factors.
Quote from Mike805:
the size is what is reckless here.
Quote from Trader666:
It's not that simple. One can't say that size on a 400K is ALWAYS reckless... the rationale behind the trade and what's being traded are also critical factors.
How's his leverage 30-1? Besides his short position on stock, He brought long puts, and that's all he could lose. He leverage is 1-1 on these options.
Quote from jzeng:
How's his leverage 30-1? Besides his short position on stock, He brought long puts, and that's all he could lose. He leverage is 1-1 on these options.
First of all, if you really do "have 100's of positions" they can instantly become WAY more correlated than you can imagine given the wrong circumstances.
Second, by BUYING options, neke couldn't lose more than he paid for them. So whatever percent of his total account he put at risk would not necessarily have been reckless under different circumstances (without calculating it I'm thinking roughly about a third of his account). Because, as I said, the rationale behind the trade and what's being traded are also critical factors.
Finally, here's a real life, real trade example. On the morning of Sep 8 2008, the google web crawler dredged up an old article on United Airlines filing for bankruptsy and the stock tanked. I was almost certain it was an old article and jumped into the STOCK with both feet. Notice the difference here -- near certainty it was a mistake (as opposed to a feeling the selloff was "overdone") AND buying stock, as opposed to expiring options. Trading was halted a few minutes later and UAUA reopened significantly higher early that afternoon.
Quote from Mike805:
Well, in my book it is that simple. 30-1 leverage on one position is definetly reckless, no matter the trade. That's just begging for pain or a blow-up.
FYI, I trade intraday only and my position size is never more than 3-5% of my account. Granted I'll have 100's of positions on occasion, some correlated and some not, but, my combined exposure to anyone instrument/market move is minimal (I also don't shoot for triple digit returns either). At 30-1, for one instrument, you're roadkill waiting to happen. Its insane no matter how you look at it...
Quote from Trader666:
First of all, if you really do "have 100's of positions" they can instantly become WAY more correlated than you can imagine given the wrong circumstances.
Second, by BUYING options, neke couldn't lose more than he paid for them. So whatever percent of his total account he put at risk would not necessarily have been reckless under different circumstances (without calculating it I'm thinking roughly about a third of his account). Because, as I said, the rationale behind the trade and what's being traded are also critical factors.
Finally, here's a real life, real trade example. On the morning of Sep 8 2008, the google web crawler dredged up an old article on United Airlines filing for bankruptsy and the stock tanked. I was almost certain it was an old article and jumped into the STOCK with both feet. Notice the difference here -- near certainty it was a mistake (as opposed to a feeling the selloff was "overdone") AND buying stock, as opposed to expiring options. Trading was halted a few minutes later and UAUA reopened significantly higher early that afternoon.
Quote from Pension_Admin:
Hindsight or no hindsight. What matter is, who actually capitalized by going long on BIDU on Thursday given the "obvious" situation.
Quote from zdreg:
how do u figure that the BIDU situation was obvious?
Quote from konviction:
Trading is gambling, doesn't matter how much risk you throw in the equation. If chris ferguson, Johnny Chan, or any other pro gambler only risk 3% of their chips, or 50%, it's still gambling on an uncertain outcome.
So you claim you sometimes "have 100's of positions" yet your "allocations are weighted" so you "don't get too hurt"? OK LOL.
Second, you have NO IDEA what my idea of near certainty was on that trade. You're just grasping at straws -- again.
Third, I never said anything about risking 30% on one position "on a regular basis" -- you did. I said that one can't say it's ALWAYS reckless. Because it's not.
Finally, you wrote "the flaw in neke's process has nothing to do with trade selection" and that's just flat out wrong. If you can't see the distinction between between differing reasons for putting on trades and trading stocks versus options that expire in one day, I can't help you.
Quote from Mike805:
To your first point; yes, I know that and my allocations are wieghted so I don't get too hurt when everything goes to shit. I have bad days just like everyone else.
your idea of "near certainty" is as discretionary as neke's version of "overdone".
Who cares about what you think you're certain about. If you're going to risk 30% of your account or more on one position on a regular basis, you risk of ruin is huge.
Can't we all just get along?
Let's call it a truce, shall we?
Let's let the PM resume updating us with his latest endeavors to recover from a rough start to the new year.
__________________
200to2million.blogspot.com
seangmclaughlin.blogspot.com
When one achieves consistency through years of practice/money management/discipline it is no longer gambling because the outcome is not uncertain anymore.
TT
Quote from konviction:
Trading is gambling, doesn't matter how much risk you throw in the equation. If chris ferguson, Johnny Chan, or any other pro gambler only risk 3% of their chips, or 50%, it's still gambling on an uncertain outcome.
Quote from Trader666:
So you claim you sometimes "have 100's of positions" yet your "allocations are weighted" so you "don't get too hurt"? OK LOL.
Second, you have NO IDEA what my idea of near certainty was on that trade. You're just grasping at straws -- again.
Third, I never said anything about risking 30% on one position "on a regular basis" -- you did. I said that one can't say it's ALWAYS reckless. Because it's not.
Finally, you wrote "the flaw in neke's process has nothing to do with trade selection" and that's just flat out wrong. If you can't see the distinction between between differing reasons for putting on trades and trading stocks versus options that expire in one day, I can't help you.
You really have no idea who you're talking to, LOL
This from the one who stubbornly maintains that neke's loss had nothing to do with trading options expiring in one day (along with several other naive misconceptions).
I know who I'm talking to alright... yet another ET "expert."
Quote from Mike805:
It kinda sounds to me like you're full of shit.
Please don't try to help me.
It didn't. It had to do with controlling 30,000 shares of a $400 stock on a $400k account.
Sure it did. To say that risking 1/3 of one's account with one day options is equivalent to risking 1/3 of one's account with stock for example is silly. Size was only one of several factors and size by itself doesn't cause losses.
Quote from lescor:
It didn't. It had to do with controlling 30,000 shares of a $400 stock on a $400k account.
Quote from Mike805:
Well, in my book it is that simple. 30-1 leverage on one position is definetly reckless, no matter the trade. That's just begging for pain or a blow-up.
Quote from lescor:
It had to do with controlling 30,000 shares of a $400 stock on a $400k account.
Quote from neke:
What's all this talk about leverage on a simple options play and controlling 30K shares? This is options not futures! Does anyone think if I bought 100 GOQBT (GOOG FEB 700 CALL ) @ 60cents (current quote), therefore paying $6K on a 310K account or about 2% of account, that I am having an insane leverage of 18:1 ? Will a 5.5% fall in stock price wipe out the account? Please folks present a consistent logical argument!
Quote from Mike805:
Neke, for the BIDU trade in question, you bought $147.3k worth of puts that day, correct? If so, that's a substantial difference from a $6k position, notional value aside.
Quote from neke:
What's all this talk about leverage on a simple options play and controlling 30K shares? This is options not futures! Does anyone think if I bought 100 GOQBT (GOOG FEB 700 CALL ) @ 60cents (current quote), therefore paying $6K on a 310K account or about 2% of account, that I am having an insane leverage of 18:1 ? Will a 5.5% fall in stock price wipe out the account? Please folks present a consistent logical argument!
Quote from neke:
Yes, I've already accepted I put on more size than I should be comfortable with, but you are making it look like it's the notional value that determines the risk.
This model boils down the thoughts I've expressed here into four simple steps. Everything ultimately follows from one's trade thesis. But since there are so many different ways to trade the same thesis, taking these steps in order is a logically consistent way to develop a trade. No hindsight required.
Step 1: Determine Trade Thesis:
a) What do you expect to happen?
b) When do you expect it to happen?
c) How certain are you of a & b?
Step 2: Determine Trading Instrument based on Trade Thesis
Step 3: Determine Size based on Trading Instrument IN LIGHT OF Trade Thesis
Step 4: Determine Position Management based on Trading Instrument AND Size IN LIGHT OF Trade Thesis
Quote from neke:
Please folks present a consistent logical argument!
Weekly Update for week 2/50 ended 01/23/2010
Moderately positive week, up 3.6K (1%).
Not a lot going on in the discretionary department, as I keep defining the objective rules for play which are going to be incorporated into my automation. A bunch of tiny-size automated trades produced the result for the week.
code:
Opening Balance: 310,514 Net gain for the week 3,620 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 314,134 Number of Trades 45 Number of Profitable Trades 21 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 01/23/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) -95,866 (Down 23.4%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 314,134 Number of Trades 102 Number of Profitable Trades 50
Good job, Neke.
Where is the performance chart?
Quote from NeoRio1:
Where is the performance chart?
looking forward to it again this year neke, keep up the good work.
pneuma
__________________
Great Minds Think Differently
Weekly Update for week 3/50 ended 01/30/2010
Negative week, down 27K (8.6%).
Was supposed to be a lacklustre week, with plenty of automated trades paying slippage and commission. Decided to size up on discretionary trades on Fri and paid the price. Bought 7000 ESI at various prices and got stopped out by my system when the max loss of 18K was attained in a broad market sell-off. Tough way to learn.
code:
Opening Balance: 314,134 Net loss for the week 27,334 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 286,800 Number of Trades 99 Number of Profitable Trades 44 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 01/30/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 123,200 (Down 30%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 286,800 Number of Trades 201 Number of Profitable Trades 94 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE ESI 2010-01-29-09-39-24 2010-01-29-11-42-09 7083 711883.9 693000.8 -18934 LONG
You need a 43% or so return to come back to breakeven on the year...not a good position to be in but with your style of trading it can be done. Good luck
__________________
One dollar at a time
with the increase in volatility and his inability to control losses, he's more likely to blow up this year.
He should stick to his automated trading, churn out a steady return over a couple of years and then move to managing OPM. That's where the real money is anyway.
Quote from l2tradr:
You need a 43% or so return to come back to breakeven on the year...not a good position to be in but with your style of trading it can be done. Good luck
Neke,
Taking the time to offer my most sincerest advice, hope it serves you well.
In order to make it you need to think risk first reward later.
Obviously you are not doing this.
If something bad can happen that's just too much risk because eventually it will happen.
The only way I was able to skin from this ruthless business called trading was to study the market hard enough and long enough until I was able to spot how to enter virtually heatless. Effectively knowing from the very start if things were not looking good and exiting for a small loss because I was obviously wrong.
In my most humble opinion until you can find the magic of no heat entries your trading business is at risk.
Best spirit to you,
No Heat
You should listen to the post above very carefully. It's the best advice you will ever get.
I suggest you cease all discretionary trading at once. There is no kind way to put this........ you're not very good at it.
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
I suggest you cease all discretionary trading at once. There is no kind way to put this........ you're not very good at it.
__________________
One dollar at a time
neke, you need to take a week off, come back fresh and start working on your MM; your risk management is way too high while not having any cushion to start the year with. The odd is always against you the bigger the hole you dig the harder it is to climb out, just wait until you've built up some of the houses money and then start swinging for the fence. Good trading to you.
sws
Quote from No.Heat:
Neke,
Taking the time to offer my most sincerest advice, hope it serves you well.
In order to make it you need to think risk first reward later.
Obviously you are not doing this.
If something bad can happen that's just too much risk because eventually it will happen.
The only way I was able to skin from this ruthless business called trading was to study the market hard enough and long enough until I was able to spot how to enter virtually heatless. Effectively knowing from the very start if things were not looking good and exiting for a small loss because I was obviously wrong.
In my most humble opinion until you can find the magic of no heat entries your trading business is at risk.
Best spirit to you,
No Heat
Neke, I'm not doing that great either this year so far. All we can do is trust ourselves, and the system at hand, having faith that it will all work out nicely in the end. Draw-downs are just a part of business unfortunately.
KON
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
I suggest you cease all discretionary trading at once. There is no kind way to put this........ you're not very good at it.
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
You should listen to the post above very carefully. It's the best advice you will ever get.
I suggest you cease all discretionary trading at once. There is no kind way to put this........ you're not very good at it.
All these advice threads are useless because:
1. We all trade differently
2. Neke doesn't know who is a pro trader on here and who isnt. Advice here on ET is a dime a dozen.
I don't think Neke has any intention of changing the way he trades..at least I havn't read any such post.
Nodoji, im afraid i have to disagree, stochastics are great for trends, why not try this- buy oversold in an uptrend and short overbought in a downtrend.
Regardless , you've had a bad trading week. take yourself off somewhere and let the automated trading get you back to breakeven. Once you hit breakeven , try 2% risk, that way you'll make money but you wont hit 4 million im afraid.
why not just try to get 50-60% yearly returns, thats really really good and compounded youll hit 10 million easily within a decade.
Quote from breeze:
Can you explain what you mean "no heat entries"?
Thanks.
Quote from TGpop:
Nodoji, im afraid i have to disagree, stochastics are great for trends, why not try this- buy oversold in an uptrend and short overbought in a downtrend.
Quote from No.Heat:
You enter a trade and goes in your favor from the start.
No Heat
Quote from No.Heat:
You enter a trade and goes in your favor from the start.
No Heat
__________________
Trade Less
Quote from konviction:
I don't think Neke has any intention of changing the way he trades..at least I havn't read any such post.
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. "
-Benjamin Franklin
Quote from NoDoji:
You are correct, but I use the 20 EMA for the same thing when looking to enter a trend.
In a very strong trend, though, stochs can fail badly in the time frame you're trading. In a very strong trend I think your best way to enter is to look at a smaller time frame than the one you're trading and find an entry there using stochs.
Look at a 5-min ESI chart Friday. Price opened oversold and quickly became VERY oversold. However, price kept falling and never became fully overbought until just before noon. If you waited for price to become fully overbought on the 5-min chart to go short, you'd have missed the largest move of the day. If you referenced a 1-min or 3-min chart near the open and shorted the first overbought move, you'd be short just before 10:00 a.m. in the 102.00's and caught a piece of a 5.00 move down before any price-moving support was even established.
I'm not sure if this the holy grail, but I started referencing shorter time frames for entry points recently and it's been very positive.
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
You should listen to the post above very carefully. It's the best advice you will ever get.
I suggest you cease all discretionary trading at once. There is no kind way to put this........ you're not very good at it.
Quote from shortie:
devil's advocate: neke IS PROFITABLE, there is a non-zero possibility that MAY change once he screws enough with his approach.
Quote from ChkitOut:
How does he turn his back on something that has made him wealthy over the past few years? year after year??
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
Neke is profitable is most areas of his trading, but has a massive hole in his game. When his first position in ESI went against him a certain pre determined amount he should have dumped it and maybe even reversed his position. Refusing to admit you're wrong and averaging down in hopes the market will prove you 'right' is insanity.
One thing he did do correctly was cut his loss before it got really ugly. So I do see a positive here. Neke just needs to stick to what he's good at and he'll make dough.
The battle isn't Neke vs. the market. It's Neke vs. Neke.
Hi Neke,
I have a question for you.
How do you know when your strategy stopped working vs. when it is just going through a normal period of drawdown?
Thanks!
PA
Quote from ChkitOut:
How does he turn his back on something that has made him wealthy over the past few years? year after year??
Neke don't pay attention to the naysayers, just tone down the risk
Red Ink:yeh it's low volaitlity at the moment, that doesn't mean it's always goign to be like that. counter-trend movement will come back ....just wait and be patient and let your automated trading play out
Quote from NoDoji:
I suggest he watch for momentum stocks to reach extremely overbought/oversold conditions, then put on an option swing trade. As an example SHLD is getting ripe, IMHO. Neke could put on a $30K or $40K position with a 50% stop loss and hold it for reversion to the mean. SHLD has large swings, so risking $15K or $20K he has a strong chance of gaining $50K-$100K or more, depending on which month he plays and how long he's willing to hold.
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
While I am not certain. I suspect he made a lot of his dough in periods of above average volatility. We are in a period of low volatility (though it may pick up). There just aren't as many countertrend bounces in low VIX environments.
That seems to be what he looks for. In low volatility things just keep grinding in one direction.
In other words the market has changed. Change with it or accept the consequences.
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
In other words the market has changed. Change with it or accept the consequences.
The entry point is price...the exit point is price.The end result is the difference between the two.
Can somebody explain to me why a clock is so important?
NiN
I wish you well ,Neke....
Quote from goldhombre:
.....Lets just hope Neke has enough money left over to pay the taxman from last year's wins;)
Neke is doing everything a good trader
must not do,like averaging down on losers,revenge trading,putting all the $$ in one position,failure to learn from past trades/keep repeating same mistakes.Its his style and big risk taking,huge profits and losses make this thread sexy.
Quote from Billybob543:
This is the best point I have seen so far.
There will be severe ramifications to Neke blowing up, if he does. The IRS will want their cut of last year's profits irregardless of whether Neke blows up or not..
Quote from konviction:
I thought you only pay taxes on the money you withdraw from the broker account?, no?
Quote from konviction:
I thought you only pay taxes on the money you withdraw from the broker account?, no?
Quote from Billybob543:
Then again, personally, I would have taken the money and ran when my account hit $450k.
Quote from Billybob543:
This is the best point I have seen so far.
There will be severe ramifications to Neke blowing up, if he does. The IRS will want their cut of last year's profits irregardless of whether Neke blows up or not. Personally, I would take out my taxes owed for last year, today.....just in case.
Then again, personally, I would have taken the money and ran when my account hit $450k. The meaning of losing almost 200k within the span of a month will begin to hit you if your account hits the 200k mark. Think about all the other opportunities you could have exploited with the money.
Quote from Billybob543:
Wrong. The IRS will consider has trades to be short-term capital gains if held for less than one year. Taxes accrue when the positions are SOLD. When you withdraw the funds has nothing to do with it, unless it's a retirement plan.
Quote from Billybob543:
This is the best point I have seen so far.
There will be severe ramifications to Neke blowing up, if he does. The IRS will want their cut of last year's profits irregardless of whether Neke blows up or not. Personally, I would take out my taxes owed for last year, today.....just in case.
Then again, personally, I would have taken the money and ran when my account hit $450k. The meaning of losing almost 200k within the span of a month will begin to hit you if your account hits the 200k mark. Think about all the other opportunities you could have exploited with the money.
Quote from konviction:
So why not just trade out of an IRA account..thats not taxed right?
He makes the bulk of his profits in a handful of trades clustered around Aug/Oct. I think his system does well when funds begin re balancing for the next year. The rest of the year he's always fighting to stay in the game. I'm sure he already knows this from reviewing his stats. His game plan should be to trade automated until his high probability discretionary time frame.
having said that, back to the same comments someone posted last year. He should focus on creating free cash flow rather than winning the lottery.
His loss from top is around 300K. That easily would have bought a couple of properties generating rent income. Free cash flow. That's how real wealth is generated.
Quote from goldhombre:
One has to put this journal into a certain perspective. Neke is not really trading, but gambling. He throws all his coins into one huge leveraged basket. If the trade goes against him then he loses big, but if the trade goes with him then he wins big.
Lets just hope Neke has enough money left over to pay the taxman from last year's wins;)
Quote from konviction:
So why not just trade out of an IRA account..thats not taxed right?
__________________
200to2million.blogspot.com
seangmclaughlin.blogspot.com
Quote from Sean McLaughlin:
you pay capital gains tax on the money withdrawn,
__________________
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPs_j1EEplI&feature=feedwll&list=WL
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
The battle isn't Neke vs. the market. It's Neke vs. Neke.
As we go into a new week, max loss per trade has been reduced to 6K. It's time for an ultra-defensive posture. No more averaging down - take predetermined size upfront, and no more. The effect on the account has been proven negative on the account in absolute dollars all the prior years, no need to keep doing what does not help -- sure ratio of winning trades will come down, but not the overall performance. It is a battle I am committed to winning. Stop losses have been incorporated on all automated trades. Risk will be incrementally sized up as performance improves, and a buffer appears. Will have to commit to implementing the acceleration/deceleration rules.
Quote from fkbsuhites:
His loss from top is around 300K. .
Go get 'em neke! Still love the roller coaster!
I hope to someday become confident enough in my trading that I can fling around the sums that you do.
Quote from neke:
As we go into a new week, max loss per trade has been reduced to 6K. It's time for an ultra-defensive posture. No more averaging down - take predetermined size upfront, and no more. The effect on the account has been proven negative on the account in absolute dollars all the prior years, no need to keep doing what does not help -- sure ratio of winning trades will come down, but not the overall performance. It is a battle I am committed to winning. Stop losses have been incorporated on all automated trades. Risk will be incrementally sized up as performance improves, and a buffer appears. Will have to commit to implementing the acceleration/deceleration rules.
Quote from neke:
As we go into a new week, max loss per trade has been reduced to 6K. It's time for an ultra-defensive posture. No more averaging down - take predetermined size upfront, and no more. The effect on the account has been proven negative on the account in absolute dollars all the prior years, no need to keep doing what does not help -- sure ratio of winning trades will come down, but not the overall performance. It is a battle I am committed to winning. Stop losses have been incorporated on all automated trades. Risk will be incrementally sized up as performance improves, and a buffer appears. Will have to commit to implementing the acceleration/deceleration rules.
Quote from freewilly:
Hi, Neke,
It is probably a nice way to go, but you probably can kiss your goal goodbye now if the risk is limited to 6K.
This type of trading is vastly similar to the style of trading I did about 15 years ago. I made enormous gains and losses.
In the end, for me, this type of trading could not make a career so it was eventually put to rest, and I trade entirely differently now.
Quote from konviction:
So why not just trade out of an IRA account..thats not taxed right?
Quote from DisciplinedHedg:
This type of trading is vastly similar to the style of trading I did about 15 years ago. I made enormous gains and losses.
In the end, for me, this type of trading could not make a career so it was eventually put to rest, and I trade entirely differently now.
i can PM some stock if you want with technicals and if you do not like it u dont buy
here is one NEU...
nice head and shoulder possibility of touching 95 or higher
__________________
MY POINT
There is no Holy Grail when it comes to trading. Most people understand that fortunes are made in decades of hard work and then can be lost overnight.
1. Preservation of capital
2. Managing the fear and greed
3. Discipline
4. Commitment to self education
5. Understanding psychology of the market
6. Understanding yourself
7. Realistic returns
8. Enjoying trading
__________________
Made off with your money/not guilty
Quote from Madeoff:
There is no Holy Grail when it comes to trading. Most people understand that fortunes are made in decades of hard work and then can be lost overnight.
1. Preservation of capital
2. Managing the fear and greed
3. Discipline
4. Commitment to self education
5. Understanding psychology of the market
6. Understanding yourself
7. Realistic returns
8. Enjoying trading
Not true for a Roth IRA.
Quote from TraderZones:
It is tax deferred - you are taxed when using the money during your retirement period. Not untaxed.
I hope Neke didnt double down today.
Quote from Millionaire:
I hope Neke didnt double down today.
Quote from Millionaire:
I hope Neke didnt double down today.
Quote from neke:
No I didn't. I am serious about eliminating the tendency to average down.
i have a feeling his numbers will be in the 5 figures.
I got up 4% calls. My breakeven is 4.25% 
__________________
One dollar at a time
Weekly Update for week 4/50 ended 02/06/2010
Positive week, up 19K (6.7%).
Tightened up the noose a bit on some of my strategies and collected a nice stream of dividends from the automated trades: nothing spectacular, but pleased. The "big" discretionary trades was a call option on AMZN on Tues (failed to reap all the gains), marred by my short position in SOHU on Monday after earnings: wrong reading of the report, and a bit larger size than I should have taken: stopped out at my max loss point.
code:
Opening Balance: 286,800 Net gain for the week 19,277 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 306,077 Number of Trades 64 Number of Profitable Trades 34 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 02/06/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 103,923 (Down 25%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 306,077 Number of Trades 265 Number of Profitable Trades 128 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE QZNFEB202010115.0CALL 2010-02-02-10-10-40 2010-02-02-12-28-42 10000 42000 52000 9855.3 AMZN CALL SOHU 2010-02-01-09-48-45 2010-02-01-10-01-26 6000 295774 288122.3 -7676.5 SHORT
Nice week, great job Neke
Nicely done. Remember what works and don't wing it and you'll be fine.
Quote from NoDoji:
All Neke needs to limit his largest losses is to write a program that prohibits access to his trading account on the 3 days into options expiration. Neke, deduct your losses over the past couple years during these 3 days each month and let us know how much additional $$$ you'd have in your account with such a feature in place.
code:
Qty Bought Sold Net ??? 2008-01-16-10-03-51 2008-01-16-14-38-23 6000 19400 32200 12670 ??? 2008-01-17-09-52-01 2008-01-17-12-25-41 15000 14750 2540 -12475 ??? 2008-01-17-10-30-38 2008-01-17-14-51-12 10000 10800 5300 -5670 ??? 2008-01-17-15-48-47 2008-01-18-09-37-50 400 10480 11370 864 ??? 2008-01-18-14-32-43 2008-01-18-15-07-48 2000 8220 7400 -870 ??? 2008-04-16-10-31-02 2008-04-16-10-37-34 1000 6900 7500 565 ??? 2008-04-17-10-15-35 2008-04-17-15-46-34 1200 12360 25200 12802 ??? 2008-04-18-12-21-06 2008-04-18-12-40-01 1000 11500 14500 2965 ??? 2008-04-18-14-05-16 2008-04-18-15-30-37 5000 12750 11250 -1595 ??? 2008-05-14-09-34-35 2008-05-14-14-29-09 4500 26100 25200 -998 ??? 2008-05-14-09-43-22 2008-05-14-09-56-08 5000 10000 11750 1655 ??? 2008-05-15-09-44-26 2008-05-15-10-23-41 5000 11480 10500 -1085 ??? 2008-06-18-09-58-33 2008-06-18-10-26-31 10000 24000 27000 2830 ??? 2008-06-19-09-32-03 2008-06-19-13-48-25 5000 19500 6500 -13105 ??? 2008-06-19-09-48-24 2008-06-19-13-48-25 3000 26070 19800 -6335 ??? 2008-06-20-14-33-32 2008-06-20-14-38-58 5000 14400 14700 205 ??? 2008-06-20-15-34-33 2008-06-20-15-53-28 5000 14300 13600 -795 ??? 2008-07-16-11-01-29 2008-07-16-12-08-30 5000 9500 13750 4155 ??? 2008-07-16-15-43-36 2008-07-16-15-58-33 10000 13300 14300 830 ??? 2008-07-17-09-33-43 2008-07-17-10-30-17 3000 9300 9850 475 ??? 2008-07-17-09-42-44 2008-07-17-10-46-22 2000 5600 5740 90 ??? 2008-07-17-11-42-56 2008-07-17-12-56-32 1500 6000 5700 -343 ??? 2008-07-18-09-43-19 2008-07-18-09-49-09 500 5890 7200 1282 ??? 2008-07-18-10-38-39 2008-07-18-12-04-46 1000 15490 15500 -35 ??? 2008-08-14-10-05-45 2008-08-14-10-19-43 10000 26035 29100 2895 ??? 2008-08-14-13-10-39 2008-08-14-14-40-48 10000 21000 17500 -3670 ??? 2008-08-14-14-44-38 2008-08-14-15-01-05 10000 17300 15022 -2448 ??? 2008-08-14-15-02-57 2008-08-14-15-51-53 10000 19487 16100 -3557 ??? 2008-08-15-09-59-42 2008-08-15-10-18-31 5000 17000 20000 2905 ??? 2008-08-15-11-16-06 2008-08-15-13-45-24 1000 5300 5600 265 ??? 2008-09-17-10-19-29 2008-09-17-10-48-51 7000 14700 10500 -4325 ??? 2008-09-17-10-50-12 2008-09-17-14-30-15 14000 38500 32431 -6319 ??? 2008-09-17-11-10-59 2008-09-17-11-15-40 5000 35000 42500 7405 ??? 2008-09-17-11-27-43 2008-09-17-11-58-52 2200 18690 16305 -2448 ??? 2008-09-17-12-01-44 2008-09-17-14-30-50 2000 24600 17505 -7155 ??? 2008-09-17-14-32-01 2008-09-17-15-38-38 10000 19240 15100 -4310 ??? 2008-09-17-14-33-57 2008-09-17-15-39-15 2000 15000 14000 -1050 ??? 2008-09-17-15-53-56 2008-09-17-15-56-21 5000 18725 19000 170 ??? 2008-09-18-11-11-10 2008-09-18-14-03-54 7000 14210 16800 2465 ??? 2008-09-18-15-04-29 2008-09-18-15-51-50 7000 22400 36400 13875 ??? 2008-09-19-11-16-43 2008-09-19-12-00-42 5000 7000 5000 -2095 ??? 2008-09-19-12-06-16 2008-09-19-13-44-19 10000 46250 41500 -4930 ??? 2008-09-19-15-33-08 2008-09-19-15-45-17 10000 39500 41000 1330 ??? 2008-10-15-10-15-11 2008-10-15-15-52-26 40000 105782 204000 97597 ??? 2008-10-16-09-48-12 2008-10-16-10-33-29 40000 94000 198000 103349 ??? 2008-10-16-10-36-23 2008-10-16-14-25-31 5000 94000 115000 20904 ??? 2008-10-17-09-31-28 2008-10-17-10-20-31 80000 146000 81288 -65952 ??? 2008-10-17-10-32-46 2008-10-17-12-47-35 15000 100000 12280 -87930 ??? 2008-10-17-11-10-03 2008-10-17-12-28-01 10000 68000 38000 -30170 ??? 2008-10-17-14-35-40 2008-10-17-15-13-44 10000 62500 58000 -4670 ??? 2008-11-19-09-38-20 2008-11-19-11-04-19 15000 67500 55500 -12255 ??? 2008-11-19-12-18-06 2008-11-19-15-22-19 20000 48560 42600 -6290 ??? 2008-11-20-09-41-56 2008-11-20-12-00-40 40000 66820 72050 4600 ??? 2008-12-17-11-07-04 2008-12-18-15-51-32 20000 88460 89680 920 ??? 2009-01-15-10-36-40 2009-01-15-14-02-34 10000 15400 22500 6936 ??? 2009-01-15-15-43-50 2009-01-15-15-59-30 10000 22500 28500 5836 ??? 2009-02-19-09-37-35 2009-02-19-15-38-41 20000 44000 25000 -19321 ??? 2009-02-20-12-10-59 2009-02-20-14-17-38 45000 139300 144000 3996 ??? 2009-02-20-14-43-46 2009-02-20-14-53-49 45000 153000 166500 12810 ??? 2009-03-18-14-31-26 2009-03-18-15-24-03 20000 31900 23560 -8661 ??? 2009-03-19-09-31-09 2009-03-19-09-40-20 20000 17400 26100 8379 ??? 2009-04-17-09-42-54 2009-04-17-10-41-06 6000 33900 49800 15788 ??? 2009-04-17-10-08-08 2009-04-17-15-09-21 50000 63470 11650 -52619 ??? 2009-05-13-10-44-16 2009-05-13-12-38-05 60000 74600 68400 -7130 ??? 2009-05-13-14-48-51 2009-05-14-09-38-34 5000 6200 8957 2668 ??? 2009-05-14-09-34-46 2009-05-14-12-30-22 5000 43000 17000 -26090 ??? 2009-06-17-10-46-17 2009-06-17-12-59-44 10000 14500 19900 5236 ??? 2009-06-17-14-27-33 2009-06-17-14-50-36 10000 24000 20400 -3765 ??? 2009-07-16-09-33-48 2009-07-16-15-05-14 25000 12500 16250 3361 ??? 2009-07-16-09-51-56 2009-07-16-10-31-01 25000 13645 12500 -1541 ??? 2009-07-17-10-04-02 2009-07-17-10-54-09 5000 20000 10000 -10096 ??? 2009-07-17-11-00-14 2009-07-17-11-43-38 8000 16600 8400 -8341 ??? 2009-07-17-11-57-55 2009-07-17-12-02-11 10000 20000 23000 2835 ??? 2009-08-19-09-34-26 2009-08-19-09-56-53 30000 36000 30000 -6465 ??? 2009-08-19-10-22-44 2009-08-19-11-55-59 40000 40000 54000 13371 ??? 2009-08-19-10-35-50 2009-08-19-10-37-38 6100 1830 1586 -350 ??? 2009-08-19-11-28-49 2009-08-19-11-52-43 33900 79970 91530 11028 ??? 2009-08-19-12-24-22 2009-08-19-15-09-37 20000 43000 47204 3889 ??? 2009-08-20-10-34-15 2009-08-20-14-09-38 40000 89600 88010 -2227 ??? 2009-08-20-13-49-54 2009-08-20-14-02-30 20000 56000 70000 13684 ??? 2009-09-16-09-30-28 2009-09-16-13-37-48 40000 121000 86000 -35564 ??? 2009-09-16-11-55-54 2009-09-16-15-35-38 30000 199796 218890 18663 ??? 2009-09-16-12-36-45 2009-09-16-15-36-59 23000 91600 120750 28827 ??? 2009-09-17-09-32-32 2009-09-17-10-42-15 30000 144500 151500 6578 ??? 2009-09-17-09-51-14 2009-09-17-10-45-04 10000 60000 56000 -4145 ??? 2009-09-17-10-50-59 2009-09-17-11-11-34 10000 60000 52500 -7652 ??? 2009-09-17-11-05-57 2009-09-17-12-06-38 50000 244000 250000 5302 ??? 2009-09-17-13-23-18 2009-09-17-15-49-37 40000 71200 80000 8264 ??? 2009-09-18-09-30-19 2009-09-18-12-56-42 30000 180970 126000 -55398 ??? 2009-09-18-09-42-29 2009-09-18-13-01-49 60000 107000 114000 6182 ??? 2009-09-18-15-08-04 2009-09-18-15-55-22 10000 172000 166830 -5325 ??? 2009-10-14-09-41-25 2009-10-14-11-35-29 20000 92000 115000 22723 ??? 2009-10-14-09-50-33 2009-10-14-10-02-30 20000 84140 90000 5584 ??? 2009-10-14-11-38-45 2009-10-14-11-59-07 100 480 520 25 ??? 2009-10-14-15-11-37 2009-10-14-15-22-10 40000 52400 58000 5065 ??? 2009-10-15-11-01-53 2009-10-15-12-11-23 10000 27900 23000 -5045 ??? 2009-10-15-12-22-24 2009-10-15-13-27-32 10000 12500 7000 -5644 ??? 2009-10-15-12-54-33 2009-10-16-09-38-34 20000 55895 61398 5214 ??? 2009-10-16-09-35-06 2009-10-16-10-47-30 10000 18000 26750 8598 ??? 2009-10-16-10-20-18 2009-10-16-11-25-27 10000 100000 110056 9908 ??? 2009-10-16-11-42-40 2009-10-16-12-19-35 10000 67990 60006 -8130 ??? 2009-10-16-12-29-40 2009-10-16-13-28-54 20000 75000 42640 -32656 ??? 2009-11-18-09-42-50 2009-11-18-10-07-14 20000 64000 66000 1724 ??? 2009-11-18-09-45-29 2009-11-18-10-11-48 30000 50100 60094 9582 ??? 2009-11-19-10-45-13 2009-11-19-14-30-37 40000 66000 62400 -4136 ??? 2009-11-19-10-52-23 2009-11-19-14-29-58 100000 95000 81000 -15323 ??? 2009-11-20-10-42-48 2009-11-20-15-22-03 40000 54080 60800 6177 ??? 2009-12-17-09-53-08 2009-12-17-13-02-28 20000 61854 65000 2849 ??? 2009-12-18-09-31-18 2009-12-18-10-26-34 20000 34000 38000 3725 TOTAL -53637
i think neke account is forming nice inverse head and shoulder
__________________
MY POINT
Anyone else find it kind of interesting that when Neke has a good week no one seems to care. Compare the amount of replies to this Friday's update to last Friday's.
However, when he has a bad week everyone is out in full force to watch the train wreck. I guess that's just human nature. Pretty sad though.
Good luck next week Mr. Neke.
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
Anyone else find it kind of interesting that when Neke has a good week no one seems to care. Compare the amount of replies to this Friday's update to last Friday's.
However, when he has a bad week everyone is out in full force to watch the train wreck. I guess that's just human nature. Pretty sad though.
Good job neke!!!
Rough start.... this is the first time I've looked since the year began.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
Anyone else find it kind of interesting that when Neke has a good week no one seems to care. Compare the amount of replies to this Friday's update to last Friday's.
However, when he has a bad week everyone is out in full force to watch the train wreck. I guess that's just human nature. Pretty sad though.
Good luck next week Mr. Neke.
__________________
'Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,' Says the LORD.
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
Anyone else find it kind of interesting that when Neke has a good week no one seems to care. Compare the amount of replies to this Friday's update to last Friday's.
However, when he has a bad week everyone is out in full force to watch the train wreck. I guess that's just human nature. Pretty sad though.
Good luck next week Mr. Neke.
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
Anyone else find it kind of interesting that when Neke has a good week no one seems to care. Compare the amount of replies to this Friday's update to last Friday's.
However, when he has a bad week everyone is out in full force to watch the train wreck. I guess that's just human nature. Pretty sad though.
Good luck next week Mr. Neke.
__________________
You can do it!!
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
Anyone else find it kind of interesting that when Neke has a good week no one seems to care. Compare the amount of replies to this Friday's update to last Friday's.
However, when he has a bad week everyone is out in full force to watch the train wreck. I guess that's just human nature. Pretty sad though.
Good luck next week Mr. Neke.
Quote from NoDoji:
Come on, Red, you been around long enough to know big winning weeks are FAKE!
Quote from ThePropTrader:
You said you will only risk max $6k per trade. -7676.50 is not -6k!
Quote from breeze:
You are kidding, right?
Quote from ThePropTrader:
You said you will only risk max $6k per trade. -7676.50 is not -6k!
You are going to lose A LOT of money due to slippage sending orders like that. Switching to a broker like IB that supports pegged and iceberg orders would save you a ton.
On the other hand, people who trade like that do help MY bottom line
Quote from lescor:
You are going to lose A LOT of money due to slippage sending orders like that. Switching to a broker like IB that supports pegged and iceberg orders would save you a ton.
On the other hand, people who trade like that do help MY bottom line
Quote from neke:
That was a stock running away from me. I could program pegged or iceberg-like order submission into my system, but I would still be vulnerable if the stock takes off and does not look back.
__________________
Trade Less
good luck Neke
hope you are having a great week. I am trying to build my cash back up myself.
Hammer
__________________
I want to retire at 35....
Quote from lescor:
On the other hand, people who trade like that do help MY bottom line
__________________
Suspend all beliefs and opinions; just trade the windsock.
Quote from ave331:
This type of smug talk is definitely uncalled for, even if you are really that good in your trading.
Quote from ave331:
This type of smug talk is definitely uncalled for, even if you are really that good in your trading.
Quote from lescor:
Switching to a broker like IB that supports pegged and iceberg orders would save you a ton.
__________________
200to2million.blogspot.com
seangmclaughlin.blogspot.com
Quote from Sean McLaughlin:
You threw me a curveball here. Can you please explain what "pegged" and "iceberg" orders are?
thanks.
Quote from Sean McLaughlin:
You threw me a curveball here. Can you please explain what "pegged" and "iceberg" orders are?
thanks.
Weekly Update for week 5/50 ended 02/13/2010
Negative week, down 19K (6.2%). Gave back what I collected last week.
There is no shocking loss, except being stopped out at my max loss of 6K on an ERTS trade on Tues - entry was based on wrong information. The rest was a woeful collection of stops on my automated system on Monday: System entered a rash of trades only to be stopped out of every one of them. I am tightening the rules on that system to avoid so many entries at once.
Looking forward to better times.
code:
Opening Balance: 306,077 Net loss for the week 19,125 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 286,952 Number of Trades 18 Number of Profitable Trades 6 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 02/13/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 123,048 (Down 30%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 286,952 Number of Trades 283 Number of Profitable Trades 134 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE BPJFEB202010490.0PUT 2010-02-12-10-14-07 2010-02-12-10-50-08 2000 21000 25000 3960 BIDU PUT ------------------------------------------------- MMMFEB20201080.0PUT 2010-02-11-11-27-33 2010-02-11-15-58-40 15000 21750 16800 -5159 MMM PUT ERTS 2010-02-09-09-34-39 2010-02-09-11-15-46 15000 241828 235803 -6050 LONG
i wouldn't worry, that just sounds like a standard/average losing week.
I see a double bottom forming / inverse hns
ouch!
Good stuff sticking to discipline!
Have a nice WE
Quote from neke:
.....The rest was a woeful collection of stops on my automated system on Monday: System entered a rash of trades only to be stopped out of every one of them. I am tightening the rules on that system to avoid so many entries at once.
Looking forward to better times.....
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Good job sticking to the rules Neke, but for that it could have been much worse.
You've done well in the past and will do so again in future.
Neke, what percentage of your trades become profitable in the first few minutes?
Prop, I don't think Neke ever holds overnight.
Also, I think he started with around $5000 a few years ago and had grown it to over $500K by the end of 2009.
Neke always starts the year down 40% or 50% to get everyone all riled up.
It's true, he does start almost every year down 50%. Maybe he should only trade the second half of the year.
I have come to this journal on a mission of mercy. Traders it is almost time to cover your NEKE short positions. One more good downdraft and it will almost be time. Wait just a little longer.
Quote from ThePropTrader:
If you just started with a $50k account and compounded it by an average 30% every year for 20 years you would have $9.5M. Not bad at all.
Quote from ThePropTrader:
Neke, Pinksheets and OTCBB stocks move 10x-100x your money and have lower risk than options. You actually have a higher chance of hitting your $4M target by trading them. My inbox is open 24/7 if you need help finding good candidates.
Quote from ThePropTrader:
Red, you seem you have a misconception about pinkshits. Do you trade all NYSE or NAS stocks or only the ones with good liquidity? Same applies to pink shits and there are a bunch of them that double, tripple, or quadrupal in just 3 days every month. Not something you see stocks do on NYSE or NAS.
http://valuevista.blogspot.com/2007...50-returns.html
Quote from konviction:
What publicly known figure in history do you know that has created such returns?
"What-if" possibilities are always fun to think about.
Folks...dont bother to lecture Neke for his highly leveraged all or nothing ways. I believe there have been several hundred people who have given Neke the talk. Neke is a grown adult probably 30+. He is aware of what he is doing and this is what he likes to do.
I dont agree with his strategy either, but this is what he wants to do. He has not listened to the past few hundred messages about his overleveraged ways, so its just time to accept what he is doing and hope for the best.
His ways are, of course, not your ways and you should not use them. You should come up with a strategy you feel most comfortable. For now, this is how Neke trades and its the poison he has choosen. Now sit back and watch. Thats all you can do.
um, what about this week?
Weekly Update for week 6/50 ended 02/20/2010
D-E-P-R-E-S-S-I-N-G week, down 57K (20%).
No words to explain the disaster that happened. Began on Tuesday, with what was supposed to be 100 contracts of X FEB 50 PUT worth 16K that I initiated via a Trade-Trigger. Unfortunately, there were double executions (was in the process of modifying the trigger when it fired - didn't know and the replacement caused another execution): When I realized that, I was coming dangerously close to the max loss of 6K. Instead of closing it out, decided to double down with 100 X FEB 55 PUT (worth 98K) in a bid to break-even. That was not to be. Instead the stock kept moving against me, I exceeded the max loss, and nothing fired (realised that my program was unable to process the new option symbology format), and I lacked the will to close the losses. Finally closed it when it was unbearable, losing 17K in one, 18K in the other, and the stock position was closed out at the max loss of 6K. That defined the rest of the week as I couldn't get anything right. No gain worth mentioning.
There will be no manual trade entry anymore from now till end of March, as I seek to prevent this draw-down from becoming a blow-up. Only entries initiated by my automation, or triggers entered before 9:30am will be allowed. I shall program the system to automatically close out any manual entry initiated between 9:30 amd and 4:00pm. I shouldn't even login to my account except between 3:45pm and 4:00pm, just to check no unintended open position is being left overnight by the automation.
Looking forward to better times. This bleeding has to stop!
code:
Opening Balance: 286,952 Net loss for the week 56,661 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 230,291 Number of Trades 18 Number of Profitable Trades 5 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 02/20/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 179,709 (Down 44%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 230,291 Number of Trades 301 Number of Profitable Trades 139 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE X 2010-02-16-09-45-46 2010-02-16-10-40-20 5000 255496 249223 -6290 SHORT QHBFEB202010120.0PUT 2010-02-19-09-38-05 2010-02-19-11-04-09 5000 22915 15250 -7744 FSLR PUT XFEB20201055.0PUT 2010-02-16-10-03-06 2010-02-16-13-18-50 20000 98000 80950 -17325 X FEB 55 PUT XFEB20201050.0PUT 2010-02-16-09-35-36 2010-02-16-13-20-57 20000 31368 13400 -18249 X FEB 50 PUT
when u have a f up like that and you dont want to take the loss, you were obviously wrong at the time and probably stil wrong if you are of the same beleif moments and - 1000's later, just sprd it off for now, it cant get any bigger than the sprd, and you can leg out of it later , you have stopped the damage, you didnt have to take a loss yet , and it doesn't f up the other stuff you are tending to. As far as locking yourself out of your own system,if yesterdays after close action took place at 10 a.m., what would you do, if you are locked out?
Hi Neke,
I am sorry to hear about your loss for this week. Please don't be depressed, because money doesn't define who you are. Just think that the $57K you loss went into a lesson. I believe as long as you remember the lesson, you will be able to earn a lot more in the future.
BTW: Is your daily max loss still $6K? Are you going to reduce it to 2% of your account? Also, what do you think about sitting out for awhile and rethink about the strategy and the expectancy?
PA
Quote from Pension_Admin:
Hi Neke,
I am sorry to hear about your loss for this week. Please don't be depressed, because money doesn't define who you are. Just think that the $57K you loss went into a lesson. I believe as long as you remember the lesson, you will be able to earn a lot more in the future.
BTW: Is your daily max loss still $6K? Are you going to reduce it to 2% of your account? Also, what do you think about sitting out for awhile and rethink about the strategy and the expectancy?
PA
__________________
http://scriabinop23.blogspot.com
Had an accident similar in that I bought 500 calls instead of 5. But I closed out 350 to keep the position from causing a major problem. I think once you realize you are in a mistaken trade for example double the number of contracts or buying when you want to sell, the best thing to do is just close the position and take the loss rather than then trying fix it after the fact. My calls cost only 15 cents and I got out of them at 10 cents.
TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE
X 2010-02-16-09-45-46 2010-02-16-10-40-20 5000 255496 249223 -6290 SHORT
QHBFEB202010120.0PUT 2010-02-19-09-38-05 2010-02-19-11-04-09 5000 22915 15250 -7744 FSLR PUT
XFEB20201055.0PUT 2010-02-16-10-03-06 2010-02-16-13-18-50 20000 98000 80950 -17325 X FEB 55 PUT
XFEB20201050.0PUT 2010-02-16-09-35-36 2010-02-16-13-20-57 20000 31368
I've found you either trade on the open, or after the first hour of expectational bullshit where the mm's decide where to move the market to and fuck over a bunch of people.
Entry times are a bit of an issue for me here prior to 10 am in most cases. I don't know if anyone else finds this particular period as bullshitly volatile as I do, but I'm open for debate.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
do not feel too bad. It has been hard to trade for your style this year. No method works for all market conditions.
Oh Neke!
Sorry about the loss but this is a great reminder about how to handle a screwed up trade so in a way I guess I'm grateful for you re-enforcing a steadfast rule I have:
Always, always, always immediately close a botched trade. ALWAYS!!!! Anyone whose ever traded has had a similar mistake happen. Hell, it probably happens to me 5-6 times every year and it's already happened once this year. (meant to short 5K AAPL and did 25K by mistake). But you have to close those trades immediately without exception and without regard to where you are pnl wise. No exceptions.
If I were you I'd take a week off, but good luck either way.
The funny thing is if you work for a hedge fund, and screw up, you can call you buds at the Nasdaq to bust the trade for you. I am sure if the trade worked out, they would not call.
Quote from Deadwood:
Oh Neke!
Sorry about the loss but this is a great reminder about how to handle a screwed up trade so in a way I guess I'm grateful for you re-enforcing a steadfast rule I have:
Always, always, always immediately close a botched trade. ALWAYS!!!! Anyone whose ever traded has had a similar mistake happen. Hell, it probably happens to me 5-6 times every year and it's already happened once this year. (meant to short 5K AAPL and did 25K by mistake). But you have to close those trades immediately without exception and without regard to where you are pnl wise. No exceptions.
If I were you I'd take a week off, but good luck either way.
good decision not to continue revenge trading and take a break to cool off emotions and let the system do its thing. As long as you have bullets left, you can fight another day.
you have my respect for what you are doing, very few people here are willing to post a real journal like you do. but there are plenty posers willing to criticize.
good luck moving forward into the year of the tiger, ride its back!
thanks for keeping up with the journal it made so far for an entertaining read, sorry for your recent losses BUT I think you deserve them. I honestly believe you made the best decision this past week, you prove very clearly that you dont have the emotional and mental mindset to be a successful discretionary trader and from my experience you may never become one either so I think going the automated route may be a way IF you are able to identify an edge.
Almost all the time when a trader cannot let go of doubling down it shows very clearly that this person lacks an essential skill necessary for trading, which is being consistently disciplined and risk averse. You are neither. Accept it and do the thing where you have an edge. You are gambling thats all you have been doing the past couple months.
Good luck, hope automating some trades works out for you.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 6/50 ended 02/20/2010
D-E-P-R-E-S-S-I-N-G week, down 57K (20%).
No words to explain the disaster that happened. Began on Tuesday, with what was supposed to be 100 contracts of X FEB 50 PUT worth 16K that I initiated via a Trade-Trigger. Unfortunately, there were double executions (was in the process of modifying the trigger when it fired - didn't know and the replacement caused another execution): When I realized that, I was coming dangerously close to the max loss of 6K. Instead of closing it out, decided to double down with 100 X FEB 55 PUT (worth 98K) in a bid to break-even. That was not to be. Instead the stock kept moving against me, I exceeded the max loss, and nothing fired (realised that my program was unable to process the new option symbology format), and I lacked the will to close the losses. Finally closed it when it was unbearable, losing 17K in one, 18K in the other, and the stock position was closed out at the max loss of 6K. That defined the rest of the week as I couldn't get anything right. No gain worth mentioning.
There will be no manual trade entry anymore from now till end of March, as I seek to prevent this draw-down from becoming a blow-up. Only entries initiated by my automation, or triggers entered before 9:30am will be allowed. I shall program the system to automatically close out any manual entry initiated between 9:30 amd and 4:00pm. I shouldn't even login to my account except between 3:45pm and 4:00pm, just to check no unintended open position is being left overnight by the automation.
Looking forward to better times. This bleeding has to stop!
code:
Opening Balance: 286,952 Net loss for the week 56,661 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 230,291 Number of Trades 18 Number of Profitable Trades 5 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 02/20/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 179,709 (Down 44%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 230,291 Number of Trades 301 Number of Profitable Trades 139 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE X 2010-02-16-09-45-46 2010-02-16-10-40-20 5000 255496 249223 -6290 SHORT QHBFEB202010120.0PUT 2010-02-19-09-38-05 2010-02-19-11-04-09 5000 22915 15250 -7744 FSLR PUT XFEB20201055.0PUT 2010-02-16-10-03-06 2010-02-16-13-18-50 20000 98000 80950 -17325 X FEB 55 PUT XFEB20201050.0PUT 2010-02-16-09-35-36 2010-02-16-13-20-57 20000 31368 13400 -18249 X FEB 50 PUT
Oh piss off you bitchers and moaners. Quit telling Neke to slow down. That just ain't his style. His is a highly speculative, highly leveraged method that is not right for you, in the same way your style is not for Neke. Listen to retaildaytrader. Neke is shooting for the stars here and he won't hit his goals by being a pansy.
Neke, I still love the roller coaster. But every roller coaster has to start upwards sooner or later. I want you at 800k by the end of the month. I know you can do it. Go get 'em!
When I used to get into that situation, a long time ago I learned you have to identify it in your gut immediately when it starts. As soon as you feel that many things go wrong you have to let go immediately. Think back on your feelings during that trade. My guess it was torturous. You DO NOT want to put yourself through that again.
A few days off and your conscious will be over it before you know it. Trading during this time is dangerous to your mentality.
hi neke,
sorry to hear about your bad week. my only advice, and i hope you aren't offended by it, is that if you are taking large high-risk positions in a commodity stock like X, then you should also be very closely monitoring all major commodity etfs and commodity stocks:
like SLX, JJC, FCX, GLD, FXE, etc
for clues as to where the dollar and commodities want to head. I have found that in this environment, where pretty much everything is moving together, it is far better, at least for me, to monitor the graphs of 100 stocks and etfs, then to just monitor a few indexes and stocks.
I like medved quotetracker since its free, doesn't use much cpu and memory, and does a good job with 100+ graphs (usually updates every .5 sec or so.)
anyway, good luck next week.
you dont know a thing, this trading style is devastating to Neke as well as to anyone. We understand you enjoy the show as we all do but I gave honest advice to Neke based on years of observations of other traders. To trade discretionary profitably for years takes a lot of discipline. Some have it some dont, Neke does not. And he is smart enough to realize at least for now. Sure you have the occasional great month or year but suchlack of discipline almost guarantees bankruptcy. His trading style is not even that bad its his not respecting stops and doubling down on losing trades rather than doubling up on winning trades which took him almost to the cleaners. He does great when he has a winning streak but throw one big loser his way and he completely loses it. I am not making anything up go back and read the thread it comes out in almost every of his posts.
So, maybe you wanna first shut up and read up on the basics of money management and probabilities.
Quote from SomeYoungGuy:
Oh piss off you bitchers and moaners. Quit telling Neke to slow down. That just ain't his style. His is a highly speculative, highly leveraged method that is not right for you, in the same way your style is not for Neke. Listen to retaildaytrader. Neke is shooting for the stars here and he won't hit his goals by being a pansy.
Neke, I still love the roller coaster. But every roller coaster has to start upwards sooner or later. I want you at 800k by the end of the month. I know you can do it. Go get 'em!
One bit of advice here Neke. A rule you should adhere to strictly is, when you enter a trade in error, always close it out immediately, no matter if it's profitable or looks like it might work out ok. It was not a trade in line with your system rules and you are not going to have the confidence or mental state to trade it properly. Just get out and reassess.
Also you should adjust your size down as your account drops. You've lost almost half your capital, so you should be trading half the size with half the $ risk. It will take you longer to get it back, but capital preservation should ALWAYS be priority #1.
Based on previous recent posts I thought your max loss per trade would be set as 6k.
You clearly can't follow your own trading rules, if so, what's the point of a trade plan and without a plan what's the point of trading?
__________________
Nexen
Daytrader not paper
Quote from bwolinsky:
I've found you either trade on the open, or after the first hour of expectational bullshit where the mm's decide where to move the market to and fuck over a bunch of people.
Entry times are a bit of an issue for me here prior to 10 am in most cases. I don't know if anyone else finds this particular period as bullshitly volatile as I do, but I'm open for debate.
I won't offer any advice to you Neke, but I do have one question...
What is your uncle point?...what does your account balance have to drop to before you say, fuck this shit?
Neke, I think you have found the answer yourself: automate this all, as your emotions get the better out of you. Been there done that, found some other ways around that myself by no more trading intraday but using EOD data only to remove myself from the heat of trading. Good thinking and you try to circumvent your weaknesses which is great. Big reminder: if you continue like you were you WILL blow up, I have seen it too many times and lived through it once myself and I know how that story ends ... it gets very predictable once you have seen it a few times ... it's not a matter of if, but only when ...
Don't let these last words get you down however but use them as a stimulus to further work on things ...
Automate what? His automated trades aren't what got him here. It'll take another 9-month-60% straight line up for the markets for him to possibly replicate his performance last year.
Not to be harsh but don't confuse brains with a bear market retracement.
this doesn't seem a bear market retracement to me, seems more like a depression hitting the economy to me ... those swings are way too wild and something will give in the end ...
just like I saw this coming for Robert Weinstein too months ago, just like there are technical patterns on charts you can predict, you can predict traders by their swings and drawdowns ... like I said before: it wouldn't be the first blowup I would be predicting ... it's time to regroup and play defense ... not offense
Why are you guys so mean to Neke. He is a hero in my book. He has the courage to fight. He will succeed.
A guy who made his 10 millions in trading told me, in the first million dollar you make, be prepared to lose $100K in one trade. It kind of making sense to me. The methods are all there. Many people can handle small account sizes.
In order to become a great trader, at some point, you have to learn how to handle big losses.
Livermore got wiped out couple of times.
if I came across as mean that was not my intention. I would very much for Neke to survive as he has indeed shown courage to report his results for all to see ... I am wishing him all the best ... but in that spirit I also want him to take care ...
EDIT: Livermore is hardly the example to follow as he blew his brains out in the end totally broke ...
Quote from freewilly:
Why are you guys so mean to Neke. He is a hero in my book. He has the courage to fight. He will succeed.
A guy who made his 10 millions in trading told me, in the first million dollar you make, be prepared to lose $100K in one trade. It kind of making sense to me. The methods are all there. Many people can handle small account sizes.
In order to become a great trader, at some point, you have to learn how to handle big losses.
Livermore got wiped out couple of times.
Quote from cvds16:
if I came across as mean that was not my intention....... I also want him to take care ...... Livermore is hardly the example to follow as he blew his brains out in the end totally broke ...
When I read about the Neke's troubles with recent trading, I wonder, if it wouldn't be much easier to earn decent money in trading, if serious trader joins prop firm or even go to work for a professional investment firm.
Quote from lescor:
That's total bull and it's dangerous for inexperienced traders to think that's how it has to be done. It isn't a race. Preserve capital above all else and execute a positive expectancy edge as often as you can and you'll make lots of money. The home run hitters who strike it rich are the exception and the street is littered with the bodies of people who try to trade that way.
__________________
Lojze
Quote from BPtrader:
You ARE mean, regardless of your intention.
You are suggesting that neke will commit suicide in a messy way!
Quote from cvds16:
my words
you are a nutcase ! enough said
Neke dude,
Not being in any way pessimistic and I sincerely hope you will turn things around just as you did last year but in case you have not started to by April 15th and you have yet to make the mark-to-market taxation election(which I would guess you may have done so years ago), it may be a good idea so as to not be limited to the $3000 annual loss. Beyond that, you get to write off a bunch of trading related expenses you would not otherwise be able to do and as you don't trade futures (i think), you are not giving up their tax friendly 60/40 status. Just an idea that I hope you don't have to use.
Peace and slightly better timing prosperity to you
The guys who make the multi millions are guys like neke who are super aggressive and go for home runs. One of the interesting things I read from the book Market Wizards was that almost all the great traders who made huge sums of money blew up or nearly blew up early in their career. That tells me that those that succeed and make big money are using lots of leverage and willing to accept big drawdowns to get there.
Those trying to make 20% a year trading stocks will never get rich unless they already are.
Quote from MarketOwl:
The guys who make the multi millions are guys like neke who are super aggressive and go for home runs. One of the interesting things I read from the book Market Wizards was that almost all the great traders who made huge sums of money blew up or nearly blew up early in their career. That tells me that those that succeed and make big money are using lots of leverage and willing to accept big drawdowns to get there.
Those trying to make 20% a year trading stocks will never get rich unless they already are.
Neke has an edge with his discretionary trades: All he has to do is put off whatever discretionary trade he wants to do by one day.
1/14/10: Loss of over $100K buying near month BIDU puts the day before expiration. Had he waited until the next day and bought the Feb puts, price gaps down the next trading day and falls to over $40 from the high. If I’m not mistaken, that would equate to at least a $250K overnight gain based on 100 contracts.
1/29/10: Loss of almost $19K going long 7000 shares ESI. Had he waited until 2/1 (next trading day) and bought 7000 shares, ESI gains almost $4 over the next 2 days.
2/16/10: Loss of just over $35K buying near month X puts a few days from expiration. Had he waited until the next day and bought Mar puts he would’ve had a small gain or worst case stopped out near break even.
Quote from MarketOwl:
The guys who make the multi millions are guys like neke who are super aggressive and go for home runs. One of the interesting things I read from the book Market Wizards was that almost all the great traders who made huge sums of money blew up or nearly blew up early in their career. That tells me that those that succeed and make big money are using lots of leverage and willing to accept big drawdowns to get there.
Those trying to make 20% a year trading stocks will never get rich unless they already are.
you dont seem to get it. It has NOTHING to do with any market sentiment. With Neke's approach to trading he will go belly up no matter which direction the market trades. It does not matter how much time it takes to make it back. It matters NOT to blow up. If he finds an edge in system trading then he should go for it.
Quote from illiquid:
Automate what? His automated trades aren't what got him here. It'll take another 9-month-60% straight line up for the markets for him to possibly replicate his performance last year.
Not to be harsh but don't confuse brains with a bear market retracement.
nobody is mean.
This is a business, no place for heros, courage, fights. Courage in trading gets you to the poorhouse in no time. Respect for markets, honoring stops and strict risk management gets you to richest. Very simple yet most dont live by those...
Quote from freewilly:
Why are you guys so mean to Neke. He is a hero in my book. He has the courage to fight. He will succeed.
A guy who made his 10 millions in trading told me, in the first million dollar you make, be prepared to lose $100K in one trade. It kind of making sense to me. The methods are all there. Many people can handle small account sizes.
In order to become a great trader, at some point, you have to learn how to handle big losses.
Livermore got wiped out couple of times.
Quote from asiaprop:
nobody is mean.
hahahha here comes asiaprop and his "wisdom" now that neke has a temporary drawdown. notice how he was missing in action when neke was doing well.
asiaprop is just a faker and a failed trader. in another thread, he was caught using another alias to reply to his own posts. pretending to be a guru with supporters lol.
asiaprop cannot accept to himself that he has no trading success after 10 years of trying, while a retail guy like neke kicks his ass. neke has it. asiaprop doesn't. end of story. bye.
Great Point. Exactly....isnt it ironic that a lot of people dont even get the message after reading market wizzards? How do they get the message when they watch markets each day?
I stopped wondering long time why there sometimes is a dime here or there lying on the street to be picked up for free.
Quote from Pension_Admin:
Did you really read that book?!?!
What message do you think the "wizards" were trying to convey?
Quote from cvds16:
if I came across as mean that was not my intention.
Livermore is hardly the example to follow as he blew his brains out in the end totally broke ...
well some get the message after they violated stops one or two times, others do it over and over again and cant help it. The wisest thing then is to change the approach to trading and Neke announced he is doing just that right now. I applaud him for that.
peace
Quote from Pension_Admin:
Well, then let's talk nicely to one another then.
this is no small draw down buddy, he is down percentage wise more than any trend following fund. Every prop trader in an ibank will be fired right away for that. Simple but true!!!
lol, i never used any other alias nor other id. Just because someone disagreed with me and made up a story this has to be true? Maybe my way of communication is direct and sometimes hurts but at least its honest. You spread lies. Whats better...you chose for yourself I chose my approach. Peace.
Neke can take the advice or leave it, you dont need to defend him or anyone else.
Quote from timmyz:
hahahha here comes asiaprop and his "wisdom" now that neke has a temporary drawdown. notice how he was missing in action when neke was doing well.
asiaprop is just a faker and a failed trader. in another thread, he was caught using another alias to reply to his own posts. pretending to be a guru with supporters lol.
asiaprop cannot accept to himself that he has no trading success after 10 years of trying, while a retail guy like neke kicks his ass. neke has it. asiaprop doesn't. end of story. bye.
Wax on Wax off
Good thread, look at NEKE go!! Neke you can turn this thing around, remember what Miyagi alway teach you..
Man who catch fly with chopstick.... , .....can accomplish anything...
* A talent made by heaven, definitely has its use......
Spread your wings and fly, not limiting that only to your dream.. *
Neke is talented! However... like an architect building a tall building ... The Fundation Must be SOLID!!!! Neke is talented but his fundation is not Solid yet ... he must Improve on his money management. Must calculate Risks/Rewards.. the Rewards must be much bigger than the Risks!
The market is full of millionaires and billionaires ... if one is not careful ...even with a capital of one million or 5 million... it can easily burnt into smoke..
i think Neke is a talented young man and i would like to see/wish him SUCCESS in trading and life.
Livermore didn't blow his brain because of trade but a woman.
Quote from cvds16:
if I came across as mean that was not my intention. I would very much for Neke to survive as he has indeed shown courage to report his results for all to see ... I am wishing him all the best ... but in that spirit I also want him to take care ...
EDIT: Livermore is hardly the example to follow as he blew his brains out in the end totally broke ...
Instead of closing it out, decided to double down with 100 X FEB 55 PUT (worth 98K) in a bid to break-even. That was not to be. Instead the stock kept moving against me, I exceeded the max loss, and nothing fired (realised that my program was unable to process the new option symbology format), and I lacked the will to close the losses. Finally closed it when it was unbearable, losing 17K in one, 18K in the other, and the stock position was closed out at the max loss of 6K.
I would like to ask neke:
1. Do you feel you are losing money because of emotional flaws (double down, and not cutting losers).
2. Or because your trading method is flawed.
- kon
Neke,pay no mind to these nannnering neighbobs of negativity..If anyone has traded for more than 30 seconds,they would understand that a 40% drawdown is to be expected when attempting to take 410k to 4 mil by year end...
hows what i said negative? It's an honest question.
Kon,wasnt referring to you at all....
Its "disturbing" to see all these keyboard warriors spew trading 101 at a guy who has the balls to lay it all out there for all to see and attempt to make 10 fold on his money.....
Its like going into the ring with the heavyweight champ of the world and telling me to keep my hands up,chin down and dont get hit..
Quote from konviction:
hows what i said negative? It's an honest question.
Quote from freewilly:
A guy who made his 10 millions in trading told me, in the first million dollar you make, be prepared to lose $100K in one trade.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Quote from oraclewizard77:
The funny thing is if you work for a hedge fund, and screw up, you can call you buds at the Nasdaq to bust the trade for you. I am sure if the trade worked out, they would not call.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Quote from NoDoji:
....I call this "miss the boat" disease and I struggle against it every day. You're afraid of missing that nice reversal so you jump in when price "seems" to be too high or too low, figure you'll average down if it moves against you and end up getting a profit when it finally reverses.
But you're underestimating the power of crowd sentiment. One of my ET mentors noticed I was always trying to counter-trend trade based on price being "too high". As a result I missed fantastic breakouts and trend following trades. (I'll never forget the day in July when ES was pushing major resistance @ 954 and even though he always told me to trade those breakouts because they indicated strength, I was afraid to because price was "too high", it pulled back from there the day before and surely it would reverse there again. I believe I left a 20 pt move behind that day by not trading in the direction of strength.) He finally got through to me: If price is trending in a direction it will tend to keep going unless something changes the crowd sentiment. If price breaks through a support or resistance level, that's a sign of extreme strength or weakness.
Always look for continuation until price action proves otherwise. That's why W bottoms and revers M tops are so powerful. They occur at the end of strong moves and indicate that sentiment is changing.
Which brings us back to X. On 2/5 X left behind a standard reversal pattern of a hammer at the bottom of a downtrend (very close to a W bottom from the 1/29 low). Then a higher low on 2/10 provided confirmation for the conservative longs and resulted in 3 strong days up. Tuesday was a gap and go, with price breaking through the 20-bar moving average. DO NOT SHORT THIS KIND OF STRENGTH. Wait until the price action tells you whether it's really overbought and ready for a breather or if there's more gas in the tank.
I didn't wait for confirmation on X Wed morning, but I had a stop in place that limited my risk to around $60. I wouldn't average down if it showed further strength that day; I'd wait until a lower high was put in.
One last thing, check out www.shortsqueeze.com. X has large short interest, a "days to cover" ratio of 17 and a very high squeeze ranking meaning any bullish move in the price will be heavily amplified by short covering. Don't underestimate how far these stocks can rise even if the company is the worst one in its sector.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
absolutely agree, BUT: When you actually hit such draw down you need to adjust your position size, tighten stops, slow it down to avoid a complete wipe out. Every experienced trader knows that, unless you treat trading as a complete gamble there is no other choice, sure it takes longer to make it back.
What you suggest is to continue with the wild ride. Neke has the free choice but best advise is to adjust to the new account level.
Quote from taowave:
Neke,pay no mind to these nannnering neighbobs of negativity..If anyone has traded for more than 30 seconds,they would understand that a 40% drawdown is to be expected when attempting to take 410k to 4 mil by year end...
Tell that to Warren Buffett.
Quote from MarketOwl:
Those trying to make 20% a year trading stocks will never get rich unless they already are.
beautiful, so true and applies to almost any wealthy investor/trader. Name someone who really made it in this business by risking 10+% of his account on a daily/weekly basis. I claim there exists none.
Quote from Trader666:
Tell that to Warren Buffett.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 6/50 ended 02/20/2010
D-E-P-R-E-S-S-I-N-G week, down 57K (20%).
No words to explain the disaster that happened. Began on Tuesday, with what was supposed to be 100 contracts of X FEB 50 PUT worth 16K that I initiated via a Trade-Trigger. Unfortunately, there were double executions (was in the process of modifying the trigger when it fired - didn't know and the replacement caused another execution): When I realized that, I was coming dangerously close to the max loss of 6K. Instead of closing it out, decided to double down with 100 X FEB 55 PUT (worth 98K) in a bid to break-even. That was not to be. Instead the stock kept moving against me, I exceeded the max loss, and nothing fired (realised that my program was unable to process the new option symbology format), and I lacked the will to close the losses. Finally closed it when it was unbearable, losing 17K in one, 18K in the other, and the stock position was closed out at the max loss of 6K. That defined the rest of the week as I couldn't get anything right. No gain worth mentioning.
There will be no manual trade entry anymore from now till end of March, as I seek to prevent this draw-down from becoming a blow-up. Only entries initiated by my automation, or triggers entered before 9:30am will be allowed. I shall program the system to automatically close out any manual entry initiated between 9:30 amd and 4:00pm. I shouldn't even login to my account except between 3:45pm and 4:00pm, just to check no unintended open position is being left overnight by the automation.
Looking forward to better times. This bleeding has to stop!
code:
Opening Balance: 286,952 Net loss for the week 56,661 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 230,291 Number of Trades 18 Number of Profitable Trades 5 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 02/20/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 179,709 (Down 44%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 230,291 Number of Trades 301 Number of Profitable Trades 139 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE X 2010-02-16-09-45-46 2010-02-16-10-40-20 5000 255496 249223 -6290 SHORT QHBFEB202010120.0PUT 2010-02-19-09-38-05 2010-02-19-11-04-09 5000 22915 15250 -7744 FSLR PUT XFEB20201055.0PUT 2010-02-16-10-03-06 2010-02-16-13-18-50 20000 98000 80950 -17325 X FEB 55 PUT XFEB20201050.0PUT 2010-02-16-09-35-36 2010-02-16-13-20-57 20000 31368 13400 -18249 X FEB 50 PUT
Quote from mastacoli71:
You seek to prevent this drawdown from becoming a blowup??? Hate to inform you but you blew up the week you drew your account down 10%.
__________________
'Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,' Says the LORD.
he was talking about the drawdown of the week.
Quote from DblArrow:
Ok, gotta clarify - you consider any draw down of 10% or greater a blowup??
Seems to me a tad on the side of ignorance.
Quote from asiaprop:
he was talking about the drawdown of the week.
__________________
Suspend all beliefs and opinions; just trade the windsock.
neke theres an old saying for trading, u make 90% of your money on 10% of your trades, the trick is to limit the losses on the other 90%. Your job is not to get killed while waiting for those 10% or (250 x 10% = 25) those 25 trend days a year where you clean up,... not busting your balls,... just saying you , or any of us, have to learn when to press, and when to coast,
actually, the point about inevitable drawdown makes sense.
when conservative hedge fund managers risking maybe 1-2% per trade expect 10-20% drawdown at times, if you make 2-3 times the risk then 2-3 times the drawdown is expected
you are obviously missing some point: when you have a 10 % dd, you need to make about 11% to be whole again, when you have a 20% dd you need to make 25%, when you have a 40% dd you need to make 67% to break even ...
Don’t worry my biggest drawdown was $125K I know what you are going through I have created a simple money management strategy and the percentages could be different for other people. It simply goes: when I lose X (2%) I stop trading for a week, when I lose Y (6%) I stop trading for a month, when I lose Z (12%) I stop trading until I can create a strategy that can make me a high % returns vs. the risk in my case is in the 80s-90s percentage. These are just basics if you want me to fill you in with the details let me know.
Quote from cvds16:
you are obviously missing some point: when you have a 10 % dd, you need to make about 11% to be whole again, when you have a 20% dd you need to make 25%, when you have a 40% dd you need to make 67% to break even ...
__________________
'Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,' Says the LORD.
I can only suggest that when you're down to 20k left that you save it to keep your life intact.
Quote from arbs-r-us:
I can only suggest that when you're down to 20k left that you save it to keep your life intact.
Re: Taking 410K to 4million by Year End 2010
best laid plans...
never happen.
i don't have time to look at your previous year posts, but first look says you didn't come close to 100K to 1.2M if you're at 410K now.
but 100K to 410K is respectable, if it's a real accomplishment and not paper gains.
eliminate your targets.
get realistic.
focus on the now.
take time off to reevaluate.
analyse.
adjust.
execute.
then look backwards.
you'll probably exceed your wildest expectations, which most traders would set as FAIL making such a blind prediction.
bonne chance.
rb.
Quote from neke:
After careful consideration, I have decided to kick off another year with a new target. Percentage-wise, it is not a lot different from the target for last year
Best watch that hubris.
Quote from neke:
As if my life depended on 20k
Poor soul, do you know how many 40% compounded loss it will take for the balance to get to 20K?
Quote from arbs-r-us:
I can only suggest that when you're down to 20k left that you save it to keep your life intact.
Hi Neke!
im also on way.
Target: from 600 Euro to 1.000.000 Euro.
I started on 11th Feb 2010.
I'm with you.
fussel
The spike is because the broker has a credit bonus campaign (in/out).
Quote from Fussel:
Hi Neke!
im also on way.
Target: from 600 Euro to 1.000.000 Euro.
I started on 11th Feb 2010.
I'm with you.
fussel
Is this account money you are comfortable losing?
Tough year.
I hope you do better in the future.
Cut your loses let your profits run.
Protect your capital better from trades that go against you.
Pick your spots.
You should be more selective.
You have made BAD trades. I would make an immediate course change, it is the smart thing to do. You have to stop the bleeding.
You don't need to trade every day and right now might be a good time to take a break.
I would.
Most would.
It would be the correct next step.
Unless you can't stop trading?
Good Luck
I hope you have a good week.
Quote from BPtrader:
wow, you made a whopping 30% gain already! That's better than most hedge fund managers.
__________________
Nexen
Daytrader not paper
Quote from Nexen:
Hedge fund managers are nothing but traders averaging down using a big load of capital.
Quote from Nexen:
Hedge fund managers are nothing but traders averaging down using a big load of capital.
Quote from Pension_Admin:
They definitely don't average down. If they do, they won't be running their funds for long.
Quote from Petro:
I work for a hedge fund and I can tell you that alot of them definately do average down and some have been running their funds for a very long time.
Quote from Pension_Admin:
The only thing different ....
Quote from lescor:
Is that they are trading someone else's money with no risk to themselves. Pretty huge difference wouldn't you say?
Quote from Pension_Admin:
They definitely don't average down. If they do, they won't be running their funds for long.
__________________
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPs_j1EEplI&feature=feedwll&list=WL
When I was first starting out after university, I worked for a company that was the Administrator for PTJ's funds and yes, he too has averaged down. Also, I don't know a single hedge fund mgr who doesn't have a substantial amoiunt of his net worth invested in the fund he runs.
Quote from vhehn:
nonsense
Quote from Petro:
When I was first starting out after university, I worked for a company that was the Administrator for PTJ's funds and yes, he too has averaged down. Also, I don't know a single hedge fund mgr who doesn't have a substantial amoiunt of his net worth invested in the fund he runs.
Looking at the picture, I am thinking maybe he was trying to prevent other people from averaging down, so he could do all the average down himself? :O Average down could be the Holy Grail!!!! LOL
Quote from Petro:
When I was first starting out after university, I worked for a company that was the Administrator for PTJ's funds and yes, he too has averaged down. Also, I don't know a single hedge fund mgr who doesn't have a substantial amoiunt of his net worth invested in the fund he runs.
As for fund manager having substantial amount of capital in their fund, I agree with you. (Beside those mutual fund managers who work in banks.)
The response I provided to lescor earlier was an IF scenario and it just apply to ME only.
What Hedge fund do you work for?
Quote from Petro:
I work for a hedge fund and I can tell you that alot of them definately do average down and some have been running their funds for a very long time.
EVERY trade you make you should have a price target and an EXIT price if the trade goes against you.
It is a bad idea to add additional funds to a trade gone wrong.
It is good to protect a trade with options but adding into losers hoping they will recover is a recipe for disaster.
Adding into a losing trade is not wise money management.
I don't usually post..but I almost fell over laughing at this post. Great quote SomeYoungGuy!!
Quote from SomeYoungGuy:
Wrote a new title for you
Taking 310K to 4million by Year End 2010
I love the roller coaster! Go get 'em!
__________________
"I'm possible is a word only to be found in the dictionary of fools."
Napoleon
I'm a prop trader in boston and i agree with ThePropTrader 110%..WTF are you talking about dude????
You NEVER EVER think about money when trading. You think about what you can LOSE first ..then what you can make. You must be new to the game..no worries. Just watch and learn.
Quote from ThePropTrader:
Here we go again.. geez... the difference between you and Neke is that he is one of those people that you and most others question how did they do it when they made it big. When trading, you must detach the value of money and treat it only as credits or points but if you look at the value of money in terms of what kind of car I could buy then you will be the person that all your life you will wonder how the guys driving a 100k car and living in 500k house do it. Sorry for being so blunt but I dont know how else to put it.. Think about this.
__________________
"I'm possible is a word only to be found in the dictionary of fools."
Napoleon
Quote from BoSoxFan:
I'm a prop trader in boston and i agree with ThePropTrader 110%..WTF are you talking about dude????
You NEVER EVER think about money when trading. You think about what you can LOSE first ..then what you can make. You must be new to the game..no worries. Just watch and learn.
Quote from Pension_Admin:
Looking at the picture, I am thinking maybe he was trying to prevent other people from averaging down, so he could do all the average down himself? :O Average down could be the Holy Grail!!!! LOL
__________________
Nexen
Daytrader not paper
Quote from TGpop:
wrong
__________________
Nexen
Daytrader not paper
I agree. There is nothing wrong with trying to make the most you possibly can and to grow your capital and maximize your profits....but when you set goals that are unrealistic or unobtainable and require you to be overly aggressive and force things you are starting off on the wrong foot.
Quote from CommunistMonkey:
While I don't think Neke's an amateur, losing 28% of your account in one trade is 100% amateur move.
I love the thread, but I still think Neke makes a ton more cash going for 410k->820k and skips posting about it.
There are plenty of "averaging down" threads where you can continue this debate:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=190949
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=191926
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=190780
Quote from salvador90:
i doubt that very much... on thing is average down another thing is scaling in and scaling out which in fact he does a lot.
In interviews he refuses averaging down completely so i doubt it about what you said...
NEKE, why don't you ask the mods to lock your thread until you decide to start trading again? It's only gonna add 30 pages of bullshit debates and back-and-forth bickering anyways.
Good luck
__________________
One dollar at a time
Quote from 1flyfisher:
I agree. There is nothing wrong with trying to make the most you possibly can and to grow your capital and maximize your profits....but when you set goals that are unrealistic or unobtainable and require you to be overly aggressive and force things you are starting off on the wrong foot.
__________________
200to2million.blogspot.com
seangmclaughlin.blogspot.com
Quote from l2tradr:
NEKE, why don't you ask the mods to lock your thread until you decide to start trading again? It's only gonna add 30 pages of bullshit debates and back-and-forth bickering anyways.
Good luck
Quote from Sean McLaughlin:
Your quote reminded me of the only quote that I have taped to my monitor:
"To live for results would be to sentence myself to continuous frustration. My only sure reward is in my actions and not from them."
Quote from BPtrader:
Yep, I have the same quote taped to my monitor. I am no longer concerned about the negative result. My only sure reward is in my actions of trading the wonderful stock market.
To make sure I will continue to receive the sure reward, I will refill my trading account with my eighth credit card. I am planning to apply for my ninth credit card.
__________________
200to2million.blogspot.com
seangmclaughlin.blogspot.com
Quote from Petro:
Legging in to a position as it's going against you is averaging down. If he was already at a full weight, he wouldn't exceed that
Quote from Nexen:
Hedge fund managers are nothing but traders averaging down using a big load of capital.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
when dees neke post his trades. ? end of week.. curious to see how he has fared in this roller coaster .week
but isnt it the same thing week after week..
the mkt seems to be going no where. dubai ,,GREECE.. Euro.. deficit.. unemployement... recovery... etc etc.. same thing. churned around..
When will "The number" be coming out? I base all my trading decisions off this, and need to know asap. Thanks
Weekly Update for week 7/50 ended 02/27/2010
An OK week, up 10K (4.4%).
Turned on my automation in full gear this week, and collected some nice gains. For the most part kept to my word of abstaining from initiating positions manually after 930am - gave some leeway and made it 10am! Will continue this week-end adding more automated processes. I have also started keeping positions overnight (small size).
code:
Opening Balance: 230,291 Net gain for the week 10,269 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 240,560 Number of Trades 22 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 02/27/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 169,440 (Down 41%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 240,560 Number of Trades 323 Number of Profitable Trades 150
Am I surprised at the lack of response to neke's profitable week?
The lack of response indicates only one thing: these mf are here to watch a train wreck, and they are extremely disappointed.
This brings out the question of what purpose neke's thread serves.
If it serves the purpose of satisfying the secret and vicious desire of watching a train wreck/earthquake/murder/flood/war/child molestation/rape, you might as well produce a "down another 50k this week" post. It will bring out a lot of evil posters from their hiding holes.
Quote from BPtrader:
Am I surprised at the lack of response to neke's profitable week?
The lack of response indicates only one thing: these mf are here to watch a train wreck, and they are extremely disappointed.
This brings out the question of what purpose neke's thread serves.
If it serves the purpose of satisfying the secret and vicious desire of watching a train wreck/earthquake/murder/flood/war/child molestation/rape, you might as well produce a "down another 50k this week" post. It will bring out a lot of evil posters from their hiding holes.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 7/50 ended 02/27/2010
An OK week, up 10K (4.4%).
he has been doing the right thing: automating his stuff; good job !
Keep up the good work Neke, slowly and steadily..
Well, he did a good job to automate more of his trading, including risk management. At the same time the thread pretty much lost all of its appeal. Not because of the results but whats the point of seeing his p&l and nothing else...before there were trades that could have inspired ideas....among other things...
Quote from BPtrader:
Am I surprised at the lack of response to neke's profitable week?
The lack of response indicates only one thing: these mf are here to watch a train wreck, and they are extremely disappointed.
This brings out the question of what purpose neke's thread serves.
If it serves the purpose of satisfying the secret and vicious desire of watching a train wreck/earthquake/murder/flood/war/child molestation/rape, you might as well produce a "down another 50k this week" post. It will bring out a lot of evil posters from their hiding holes.
Quote from BPtrader:
Am I surprised at the lack of response to neke's profitable week?
The lack of response indicates only one thing: these mf are here to watch a train wreck, and they are extremely disappointed.
This brings out the question of what purpose neke's thread serves.
If it serves the purpose of satisfying the secret and vicious desire of watching a train wreck/earthquake/murder/flood/war/child molestation/rape, you might as well produce a "down another 50k this week" post. It will bring out a lot of evil posters from their hiding holes.
Neke, to keep your journal a worthwhile read, could you please continue to post some of your trades that your system has taken? No need to mention stops or targets, there is no intention to ask you to reveal any of your system. Also a little more detail on your overnight positions would be much appreciated and could spark an interesting discussion. It may also serve you well to document what has been going on with your system and overnight trades...
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 7/50 ended 02/27/2010
An OK week, up 10K (4.4%).
Turned on my automation in full gear this week, and collected some nice gains. For the most part kept to my word of abstaining from initiating positions manually after 930am - gave some leeway and made it 10am! Will continue this week-end adding more automated processes. I have also started keeping positions overnight (small size).
code:
Opening Balance: 230,291 Net gain for the week 10,269 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 240,560 Number of Trades 22 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 02/27/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 169,440 (Down 41%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 240,560 Number of Trades 323 Number of Profitable Trades 150
Neke can make this back. I don't think its the leverage thats the problem. If he can stop doubling down, and learn to cut losers, he'll do much better. Good job this week.
Quote from neke:
An OK week, up 10K (4.4%).
__________________
Robert Weinstein
"No other occupation that I know of makes the day go by so quickly or the weekend so slowly as trading."
Interesting thread. Keep it going, want to see the result at the end, either way is good result.
43 weeks left here's how that would compound:
3.00% 256.45%
3.25% 295.61%
3.50% 338.97%
3.75% 386.95%
4% 440.05%
4.25% 498.78%
4.50% 563.74%
I'd take that...
Great journal Neke, you have inspired me to do a similar thread on et, i have 285K in my account, will try to get to 1million by the end of the year... will create my journal shortly..
Quote from southall:
Great journal Neke, you have inspired me to do a similar thread on et, i have 285K in my account, will try to get to 1million by the end of the year... will create my journal shortly..
That's true in your statement, but with an 'if' in it, missing 'else' if not.
Quote from TRYKtrading:
285 in cash, times 20-25:1, you're at 5-6M in leverage. you could trade one stock, like SQNM or PALM or...any number, and make 25% to hit your million in a single day.
i'm not seeing how it's that complicated. someone clarify it if it is...
Quote from PaulRon:
yea totally not complicated to quadruple your stack in a day
Let me translate your post to percentages..
Quote from TRYKtrading:
any fund manager who can't make 5% in a day, or a week, or a month, should reevaluate their jobs.
Quote from SomeYoungGuy:
Let me translate your post to percentages..
..and that's nonsense.
Quote from TRYKtrading:
it's not. if i can make $6000 on a $10K account today with $200K leveraged, then...
sorry. it's as possible as losing it to zero, which is more likely than hitting a million.
Quote from rew:
What is nonsense is to think you can do that day after day without blowing up. In hindsight each of us can find a trade every day that had we made it the day before we would have doubled our money. Doing that consistently in foresight ain't gonna happen.
what's the point of this nonsense ? you can't do it! So please take your garbage elsewhere instead of hijacking this thread.
Quote from southall:
Great journal Neke, you have inspired me to do a similar thread on et, i have 285K in my account, will try to get to 1million by the end of the year... will create my journal shortly..
Quote from rew:
What is nonsense is to think you can do that day after day without blowing up. In hindsight each of us can find a trade every day that had we made it the day before we would have doubled our money. Doing that consistently in foresight ain't gonna happen.
Quote from TRYKtrading:
any fund manager who can't make $250K on $5M in capital in a day, or a week, or a month, should reevaluate their jobs.
i'm not saying i could, that would be arrogant, but there are a thousand examples of buy and hold overnight, or open to close, where that was possible today and yesterday, on relatively minor market moves.
Quote from heech:
For every 38 monkeys who play roulette in Vegas and randomly fling poo at the wheel (repeating throws in case of a doubled up number)... one of the 38 will be up 3700% after one spin.
I'm not arrogant enough to say I am that monkey, but I think the other monkeys should re-evaluate their jobs (as should the guy responsible for cleaning up the poo).
Quote from heech:
For every 38 monkeys who play roulette in Vegas and randomly fling poo at the wheel (repeating throws in case of a doubled up number)... one of the 38 will be up 3700% after one spin.
I'm not arrogant enough to say I am that monkey, but I think the other monkeys should re-evaluate their jobs (as should the guy responsible for cleaning up the poo).
Quote from heech:
For every 38 monkeys who play roulette in Vegas and randomly fling poo at the wheel (repeating throws in case of a doubled up number)... one of the 38 will be up 3700% after one spin.
I'm not arrogant enough to say I am that monkey, but I think the other monkeys should re-evaluate their jobs (as should the guy responsible for cleaning up the poo).
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Quote from TRYKtrading:
any fund manager who can't make $250K on $5M in capital in a day, or a week, or a month, should reevaluate their jobs.
i'm not saying i could, that would be arrogant, but there are a thousand examples of buy and hold overnight, or open to close, where that was possible today and yesterday, on relatively minor market moves.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Quote from TRYKtrading:
285k in cash, times 20-25:1, you're at 5-6M in leverage. you could trade one stock, like SQNM or PALM or...any number, and make 25% to hit your million in a single day.
i'm not seeing how it's that complicated. someone clarify it if it is...or else.
__________________
Lets discuss ideas/Strategies
Trend/Day/System
Growing Fund in progress
Quote from coolweb:
ridioclous
this guy forgot to compute that the average daily range = 2%
you are leveraged up 20x-25x, you can blow up 50% of your capital in a 2% pitiful noise move.
risk control is impossible when you are too higly leveraged
yeah, right bigmouth ! NOT
i'll take the lead as the curious little sh!t.
How'd this week go neke?
Quote from TGpop:
i'll take the lead as the curious little sh!t.
How'd this week go neke?
code:
if( neke.weekly_P&L <-$5000) { elitetrader.post("neke is a gambler.. his risk level is suicide... he is going to blowup sooner rather than later .. blah blah blah"); } else { // silence }
Weekly Update for week 8/50 ended 03/06/2010
Negative week, down 2.4K. Should have been moderately positive had I restricted myself to only automated trades.
The purpose of instituting a max loss per trade (4K for stocks last week) was to contain the urge to average in endlessly, effectively limiting the damage that could be done. I was stopped out twice this week on my trades (both discretionary) and the slippage is not funny. On SNDA closing 6K shares at the market effectively cost me abot 1.2K in slippage on Monday (went contarian buying the early sell-off after the earnings). Will have to determine under what conditions to exit with market orders vs. trying to "work" my way out, with the risk of the losses increasing.
Will try and add another strategy to my automated arsenal this week-end.
code:
Opening Balance: 240,560 Net loss for the week 2,428 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 238,132 Number of Trades 20 Number of Profitable Trades 9 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 03/06/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 171,868 (Down 42%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 238,132 Number of Trades 343 Number of Profitable Trades 159 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE PCLN 2010-03-02-09-57-45 2010-03-02-15-59-26 1000 241400 244150 2733 SHORT ----------------------------------------------------------------- SNDA 2010-03-01-09-33-11 2010-03-01-09-43-20 6000 248949 243780 -5193 LONG
Good job neke. Seriously, it wasnt a plus week, but 2k is a lot less than the 10k losses you've been taking.. what's this new strategy you mention?..can you tell us more? has it been backtested?
kon
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 8/50 ended 03/06/2010
Negative week, down 2.4K. Should have been moderately positive had I restricted myself to only automated trades.
Will try and add another strategy to my automated arsenal this week-end.
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Neke, dont wanna say you are hopeless but you took discretionary trades 2 weeks after you suffered a massive loss and promised yourself to entirely focus on automation? I dont get it or did I misread your post that time?
I think how some posters praise you is bollocks. Even if you had made 100k in discretionary trades past week it would have been plain wrong and was the worst that could have happened cause it means you took again outrageous risk right after you suffered a devastating loss. Why dont you stick to your own decision to only do automated trading for a while until you have put down IN WRITING a better risk management plan for your discretionary approach...just my 2 cents
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 8/50 ended 03/06/2010
Negative week, down 2.4K. Should have been moderately positive had I restricted myself to only automated trades.
The purpose of instituting a max loss per trade (4K for stocks last week) was to contain the urge to average in endlessly, effectively limiting the damage that could be done. I was stopped out twice this week on my trades (both discretionary) and the slippage is not funny. On SNDA closing 6K shares at the market effectively cost me abot 1.2K in slippage on Monday (went contarian buying the early sell-off after the earnings). Will have to determine under what conditions to exit with market orders vs. trying to "work" my way out, with the risk of the losses increasing.
Will try and add another strategy to my automated arsenal this week-end.
code:
Opening Balance: 240,560 Net loss for the week 2,428 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 238,132 Number of Trades 20 Number of Profitable Trades 9 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 03/06/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 171,868 (Down 42%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 238,132 Number of Trades 343 Number of Profitable Trades 159 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE PCLN 2010-03-02-09-57-45 2010-03-02-15-59-26 1000 241400 244150 2733 SHORT ----------------------------------------------------------------- SNDA 2010-03-01-09-33-11 2010-03-01-09-43-20 6000 248949 243780 -5193 LONG
just keep doing what you're doing. 2.4k is a very small down week for an account your size anyway
Quote from asiaprop:
Neke, dont wanna say you are hopeless but you took discretionary trades 2 weeks after you suffered a massive loss and promised yourself to entirely focus on automation? I dont get it or did I misread your post that time?
I think how some posters praise you is bollocks. Even if you had made 100k in discretionary trades past week it would have been plain wrong and was the worst that could have happened cause it means you took again outrageous risk right after you suffered a devastating loss. Why dont you stick to your own decision to only do automated trading for a while until you have put down IN WRITING a better risk management plan for your discretionary approach...just my 2 cents
you should really work on giving up averaging completely...
quick question: does your automated system also average in?
Q:
How did you manage to code a profitable automated system without knowing how to manually trade yourself?
Is your automated system plucked from like wealthlab or something?
cause to code a profitable system, means you need to relatively know how to trade profitable manually.
From the looks of your manual trading, I personally feel you aren't really insync with the markets or don't understand it at all.
PCLN long - Very bad area to Buy,
In my opinion you were sheeping
SNDA long - insanely bad idea to buy (mainly cause of the gap down and the randomness associated to it)
In my opinion it was a random bet
both ideas follow no rhyme or rule to good trading methology (buy low sell high) how did you manage to code an automated system that makes money?
__________________
Lets discuss ideas/Strategies
Trend/Day/System
Growing Fund in progress
Coolweb
If you look at his statement you can see that PCLN was a short
Quote from krackelacke:
Coolweb
If you look at his statement you can see that PCLN was a short
__________________
Lets discuss ideas/Strategies
Trend/Day/System
Growing Fund in progress
[code]
if( neke.weekly_PL% < -.0025) {
elitetrader.post("neke is having a nothing week!");
} else {
if( neke.weekly_PL% > 10%) {
elitetrader.post("Neke will be up 30% next week for sure");
} else {
if( neke.weekly_PL% < 10%) {
elitetrader.post("Amateur");
} else {
if( neke.weekly_largestloss < $10,000 ) {
elitetrader.post("Is Few and Far Between");
} else {
// silence
}
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
one last loop..
} else {
if( neke.weekly_largestloss > $50,000 ) { -- happened twice this year
elitetrader.post("NEKE will BLOW UP account!");
Quote from asiaprop:
Neke, dont wanna say you are hopeless but you took discretionary trades 2 weeks after you suffered a massive loss and promised yourself to entirely focus on automation? I dont get it or did I misread your post that time?
I think how some posters praise you is bollocks. Even if you had made 100k in discretionary trades past week it would have been plain wrong and was the worst that could have happened cause it means you took again outrageous risk right after you suffered a devastating loss. Why dont you stick to your own decision to only do automated trading for a while until you have put down IN WRITING a better risk management plan for your discretionary approach...just my 2 cents
Quote from TRYKtrading:
here's an idea:
short appl.
go all-in at ~219, dump at least 10,000 shares into it, keep half your leverage in reserve.
and wait until the sell-off bottoms out around, oh, wednesday.
you'll make about 10-15 a share if you watch the real time charts closely for the micro bounces.
but that's just what i would do...
This will turn out just like Robert Weinstein. Jumping around fading the trend not a good strategy in a rising market.
Weekly Update for week 9/50 ended 03/13/2010
Positive week, up 4.4K (2%).
It is encouraging there were no forced stops (on maximum loss). The losses were smaller size compared to the gains, even if more numerous. The most important thing is to keep operating according to my rules on sizing up/down. The maximum loss (forcible closure) limit will be maintained at 6K for stocks and 9K for options for next week. Ordinarily I should hardly ever hit the limit, if I am responsible with my sizing. The number of closures each week will tell me how irresponsible I have been with my sizing.
Still putting in a lot of effort toward my automation.
code:
Opening Balance: 238,132 Net gain for the week 4,385 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 242,517 Number of Trades 25 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 03/13/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 167,483 (Down 41%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 242,517 Number of Trades 368 Number of Profitable Trades 170
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 9/50 ended 03/13/2010
Positive week, up 4.4K (2%).
It is encouraging there were no forced stops (on maximum loss). The losses were smaller size compared to the gains, even if more numerous. The most important thing is to keep operating according to my rules on sizing up/down. The maximum loss (forcible closure) limit will be maintained at 6K for stocks and 9K for options for next week. Ordinarily I should hardly ever hit the limit, if I am responsible with my sizing. The number of closures each week will tell me how irresponsible I have been with my sizing.
Still putting in a lot of effort toward my automation.
code:
Opening Balance: 238,132 Net gain for the week 4,385 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 242,517 Number of Trades 25 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 03/13/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 167,483 (Down 41%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 242,517 Number of Trades 368 Number of Profitable Trades 170
neke, the market is deciding whether to turn south or rally , a sort of explosive sideways move, stay smaller than normal, be cautious , once it's safe , then go back to biz as usual,good week
what are you talking about? This was not about trading convictions, Neke did the only thing he should do and what he said he would do which is to focus right now on his automated trading. The results show fruit.
Also, trading is NOT about whether having doubt or not. Conviction is important when putting on a trade but much more important is proper risk management something I believe Neke lacks the most among all the other skills needed to successfully trade. He is working on this and I again applaud him for that. Trading is not about becoming a big swinging dick. You can see where big swinging dicks got us in the world economy. If you dont worry about "how you land" on each and every trade, no matter how small, you will never ever cut it as trader.
Quote from SomeYoungGuy:
I praise neke for the strength of his trading convictions, something I completely lack. neke is often wrong, but never in doubt.
I don't even trade, I just "look at the squiggles" in the evening, as my wife says. I will be happy when I can make a leap the size that he does without worrying about the landing.
Go get 'em neke!
Good job this week neke.
Weekly Update for week 10/50 ended 03/20/2010
Positive week, up 5.3K (2%).
Good again there were no forced stops (on maximum loss), as I seek to go according to the rules on position sizes on the few discretionary trades made. The lack of volatility has meant some of my automated strategies are just idling away waiting for opportunities. One is tempted to reduce the parameters in order to fetch trades. However, that is not advisable from my experience.
Will keep plodding away at the small size for quite some time.
code:
Opening Balance: 242,517 Net gain for the week 5,287 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 247,804 Number of Trades 21 Number of Profitable Trades 14 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 03/20/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 162,196 (Down 40%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 247,804 Number of Trades 389 Number of Profitable Trades 184
I hadn't checked this thread in over 2 months. Sorry to say Neke, but you are not going to make it in this game if you don't learn to put in what I call "disaster prevention" rules to stop you from blowing up.
You should have time framed drawdown rules in your business plan.
Here are my rules:
1) A 5% drawdown in any 20 day stretch requires position resizing of half of original intent.
2) A 8% drawdown in any 20 day stretch requires 2 months of time away from the markets.
3) A 15% drawdown in any 60 day stretch requires a 4 months of time away from the markets.
4) A loss of 30% or more in the funds entirety requires a shutdown of operations and to never return to trading.
5) As long as there is a portfolio loss, you are not allowed to take on any position with original sized intent. In addition, you may not trade more than 50% of capital in sum until you have brought your portfolio to a gain.
This is the second time I've seen you drawdown like this Neke. You need to penalize yourself. You need consequences. It is the only way to prevent you from taking on big drawdowns like this.
You are taking on too many trades in a market that is light in volatility. In other words, your system is chopping you up and up good.
In addition, when you press yourself with too lofty of a goal, you take on more than you can chew. Realize, that if you can do 50% year over year you are doing well. Perhaps set goals you can achieve rather than trying to impress.
Quote from FutsTrader111:
I hadn't checked this thread in over 2 months. Sorry to say Neke, but you are not going to make it in this game if you don't learn to put in what I call "disaster prevention" rules to stop you from blowing up.
Quote from TRYKtrading:
i think he should take his 250K and split it up into three foreclosures in really nice neighbourhoods: new york, san francisco, and london. rent the places out, and in 3 years, collect your $4M tax free.
Quote from TRYKtrading:
or, wait until two weeks before GOOG reports earnings, go allin for 2000 shares and write the may 590 puts for another 60K+ in potential profits and then buy the houses.
ha, how true. Though I think Neke is somewhat different from the masses. If he keeps on being disciplined he could make it all back this year. Hope he learned the lesson. Must be painful to piss away such stack in a matter of a few weeks only to have to make it back in a year or more.
Quote from FutsTrader111:
He (and many on here) need to lose it all to really understand that the pursuit of money wasn't and isn't their life calling.
Quote from asiaprop:
ha, how true. Though I think Neke is somewhat different from the masses. If he keeps on being disciplined he could make it all back this year. Hope he learned the lesson. Must be painful to piss away such stack in a matter of a few weeks only to have to make it back in a year or more.
Quote from FutsTrader111:
He (and many on here) need to lose it all to really understand that the pursuit of money wasn't and isn't their life calling.
[QUOTE]Quote from asiaprop:
if he were disciplined, he would never have lost $150K, or 40% of his account. and it's not just the loss, it's what he COULD have made on from $400K up that he's kissed off. if i had to crunch the math, i'd say he's lost more like 600-700K compounded. discipline isn't the cure here. investing in real estate is. no one can lose money in real estate coming out of "the worst recession since the great depression".
buy a house, neke. go back to your day job.
or give $25K to me and i'll turn that =o[ into =o] in three months.
Quote from CommunistMonkey:
I disagree completely. Neke's finally putting it together. If he churns our $4-5k/week for the rest of the year (and adjusts his goals accordingly ) he'll make about $200k from here and do a hell of a lot better than nearly everyone on ET. If he gets up to $10k/week which I think his strategy can probably produce that's closer to $500k. It's when he tries to make $50k/week that he completely blows up and has huge down weeks.
I still think this thread's a bad idea (though I read and enjoy it weekly) - 2/3 of it just haters goading him into taking more risk and pointing out he's gonna need to ramp up the risk to get to 4.1M which is the worst possible advice available.
SC and Pauld Tudor Jones only made money because they focus on limiting risk first and foremost before making money. I think you have a very interesting way of approaching trading...
correctly you should have said that YOUR trading is like gambling.
Quote from TRYKtrading:
i disagree. daytrading is like texas hold 'em. i say go all in on a sure hand, and make it back and then some. only great traders have the balls to make the really big bets. that's why they're paid like baseball players. and then some...
http://www.finalternatives.com/node/11825
i'd never pay $100M for a painting, but then if i had $100M, why the hell not. it's not like SAC needs to count his pennies anymore. he's too busy swimming in his gold coin vault.
truly spoken like a total beginner. If history taught us anything then its that prices can go anywhere. You want to bet your farm, your whole life, and your wife that this is the real estate bottom in the US? I dont!!!
Quote from TRYKtrading:
[QUOTE]Quote from asiaprop:
if he were disciplined, he would never have lost $150K, or 40% of his account. and it's not just the loss, it's what he COULD have made on from $400K up that he's kissed off. if i had to crunch the math, i'd say he's lost more like 600-700K compounded. discipline isn't the cure here. investing in real estate is. no one can lose money in real estate coming out of "the worst recession since the great depression".
buy a house, neke. go back to your day job.
or give $25K to me and i'll turn that =o[ into =o] in three months.
IDIOT. Seriously!!! So why are you not rich by today after all you saw all this coming for C and PALM RIGHT? How stupid do some posts get here, really...
Quote from TRYKtrading:
C is up from 3.25 to 4.10 in less than a month. a 30% gain. on 250K he'd have made back half his loss already. on leverage, 2:1, he'd have broken even by today. at 4:1, he'd have made that and another 50%.
just short PALM this month, he'd have made back that plus another 200-400%, and PALM is hitting zero before it's bought by microsoft.
just wait for that announcement, it's coming.
but i digress. risk isn't what he needs. balls is what he needs.
Quote from asiaprop:
IDIOT. Seriously!!! So why are you not rich by today after all you saw all this coming for C and PALM RIGHT? How stupid do some posts get here, really...
Quote from TRYKtrading:
C is up from 3.25 to 4.10 in less than a month. a 30% gain. on 250K he'd have made back half his loss already. on leverage, 2:1, he'd have broken even by today. at 4:1, he'd have made that and another 50%.
just short PALM this month, he'd have made back that plus another 200-400%, and PALM is hitting zero before it's bought by microsoft.
just wait for that announcement, it's coming.
but i digress. risk isn't what he needs. balls is what he needs.
Quote from CommunistMonkey:
You proved my point exactly :P (the one that this thread is nothing more than a chance for a bunch of loser jerkoffs to encourage Neke to take too much risk)
Quote from CommunistMonkey:
You proved my point exactly :P (the one that this thread is nothing more than a chance for a bunch of loser jerkoffs to encourage Neke to take too much risk)
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 10/50 ended 03/20/2010
Positive week, up 5.3K (2%).
Good again there were no forced stops (on maximum loss), as I seek to go according to the rules on position sizes on the few discretionary trades made. The lack of volatility has meant some of my automated strategies are just idling away waiting for opportunities. One is tempted to reduce the parameters in order to fetch trades. However, that is not advisable from my experience.
Will keep plodding away at the small size for quite some time.
code:
Opening Balance: 242,517 Net gain for the week 5,287 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 247,804 Number of Trades 21 Number of Profitable Trades 14 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 03/20/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 162,196 (Down 40%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 247,804 Number of Trades 389 Number of Profitable Trades 184
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 10/50 ended 03/20/2010
Positive week, up 5.3K (2%).
Good again there were no forced stops (on maximum loss), as I seek to go according to the rules on position sizes on the few discretionary trades made. The lack of volatility has meant some of my automated strategies are just idling away waiting for opportunities. One is tempted to reduce the parameters in order to fetch trades. However, that is not advisable from my experience.
Will keep plodding away at the small size for quite some time.
code:
Opening Balance: 242,517 Net gain for the week 5,287 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 247,804 Number of Trades 21 Number of Profitable Trades 14 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 03/20/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 162,196 (Down 40%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 247,804 Number of Trades 389 Number of Profitable Trades 184
Quote from Pumpy Dumper:
Neke, here is a list of stocks that are currently in strong, secure uptrends. The trend is your friend until the end?
CBST
WBMD
CEPH
MYL
INTU
BIIB
IACI
TEVA
UAUA
Quote from Pumpy Dumper:
Neke, here is a list of stocks that are currently in strong, secure uptrends.
Quote from TRYKtrading:
lol. an airline stock. a health website? are you nuts?
AAPL
dump every dime you have long into apple and sit back and watch it split 4:1 and break earnings wide open next quarter because of the ipad.
jesus, does it have to be so fucking complicated making money trading? it's so damn obvious. and y'all miss it every time.
Quote from TRYKtrading:
lol. an airline stock. a health website? are you nuts?
AAPL
dump every dime you have long into apple and sit back and watch it split 4:1 and break earnings wide open next quarter because of the ipad.
jesus, does it have to be so fucking complicated making money trading? it's so damn obvious. and y'all miss it every time.
Quote from lescor:
Please define a "secure uptrend"
Quote from NoDoji:
Pick your time frame and then buy AAPL when it moves 1 tick above its last resistance level; sell AAPL when it moves one tick below its last support level.
Profitable traders don't care if a stock is overvalued, or if the balance sheet sucks, or if the company's a cash cow, or if a stock with very little growth potential has been making 52-week highs for half the year. All we care about is where price goes and when price breaks through previous support or resistance, we know who's in control and we join them!
I'll bet a lot of traders sold UAUA short between 2/15 and 2/26 around 16.00 a share because it was a crappy airline close to 52-week highs and obviously failing to attract enough buyers to make a new high. The traders who bought that crappy airline stock at 16.00 enjoyed a nearly 28% gain in less than a month once it broke out. (That would be the equivalent of AAPL hitting 280.00 in a month from here.)
short AAPL to 215.
Easiest money anyone will ever make
Quote from NoDoji:
Pick your time frame and then buy AAPL when it moves 1 tick above its last resistance level; sell AAPL when it moves one tick below its last support level.
Profitable traders don't care if a stock is overvalued, or if the balance sheet sucks, or if the company's a cash cow, or if a stock with very little growth potential has been making 52-week highs for half the year. All we care about is where price goes and when price breaks through previous support or resistance, we know who's in control and we join them!
I'll bet a lot of traders sold UAUA short between 2/15 and 2/26 around 16.00 a share because it was a crappy airline close to 52-week highs and obviously failing to attract enough buyers to make a new high. The traders who bought that crappy airline stock at 16.00 enjoyed a nearly 28% gain in less than a month once it broke out. (That would be the equivalent of AAPL hitting 280.00 in a month from here.)
Quote from Pumpy Dumper:
Basically what I meant was the stocks I listed were in defined uptrends over a period of time. Throw some mental stops on them and maybe some bollinger bands and there you go, trading with the trend 101. The reason why I chose this particular group though, was because of the momentum they all had. Maybe ride the wave a little further and get a piece of it before it sputters out... or more... or less. Who knows.
Quote from fkbsuhites:
short AAPL to 215.
Easiest money anyone will ever make
Quote from lescor:
Exactly, who knows... You've identified trending stocks, just buying them doesn't mean you'll make any money. The entry is among the least important things in trading profitably. You throw out some symbols, unless you are also tossing in a clearly explained trading plan it's kind of pointless.
Good job neke keep grinding out those 5k weeks. Must feel better not having all that leverage on your shoulders, yes?
It's called stopping out once the market does not do what you expect it to do.
If it breaks above 230 it's going to act like BIDU and may well hit 300 by the next week after the break. I'm a trader and my opinion changes with every tick. Based on todays close this market has legs to move higher.
Quote from TRYKtrading:
and what if aapl knocks its first day sales reports of the ipad out of the park? go long and eat crow?
Quote from NoDoji:
Profitable traders don't care if a stock is overvalued, or if the balance sheet sucks, or if the company's a cash cow, or if a stock with very little growth potential has been making 52-week highs for half the year. All we care about is where price goes and when price breaks through previous support or resistance, we know who's in control and we join them!
Quote from fkbsuhites:
It's called stopping out once the market does not do what you expect it to do.
If it breaks above 230 it's going to act like BIDU and may well hit 300 by the next week after the break. I'm a trader and my opinion changes with every tick. Based on todays close this market has legs to move higher.
Quote from lescor:
Exactly, who knows... You've identified trending stocks, just buying them doesn't mean you'll make any money. The entry is among the least important things in trading profitably. You throw out some symbols, unless you are also tossing in a clearly explained trading plan it's kind of pointless.
Weekly Update for week 11/50 ended 03/27/2010
Moderately negative, down 1K (0.5%).
The big loser was a forced sell-out on my put option in BIDU on Wed - yes BIDU once again! Bought 31 contracts worth about 60K put option when the stock spiked again in the morning. Really thought chance of 9K loss stop-out on the option was slim. I got it wrong, as the early afternoon climactic top (stock was about 612) forced me out with a loss of 10 K (9K + nearly 1K slippage). Putting in place a mechanism in my system to better predict chance of my max loss limit being reached intra-day when initiating/increasing a position. If the chance is greater than 5%, close out the position immediately (should not allow me to carry on too much size relative to my loss threshhold). Other than that, it should have been an OK week.
Still keeping my small size on the automatic trades.
code:
Opening Balance: 247,804 Net loss for the week 1,139 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 246,665 Number of Trades 30 Number of Profitable Trades 18 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 03/27/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 163,335 (Down 40%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 246,665 Number of Trades 429 Number of Profitable Trades 202 BPJAPR172010600.0PUT 2010-03-24-09-44-45 2010-03-24-12-34-31 3100 61014 51150 -9939.9 BIDU APR 600 PUT
teeny loss this week, good trading
BIDU. BIDU... .. has costed many folks HUGE LOSSES in the last week..
hence ur 1K is minimal.
i think NEKE lost 90 K one week some time ago and most was on BIDU.
it is a PORTFOLIO KILLER..
Neke, you've come a long way with your risk management. A big congrats on that.
BIDU is in a majorly strong uptrend. Buy any dip and you'll be on the other side of those losses.
I looked at a BIDU chart in real time Thursday because I liked its huge daily ranges, so yesterday I thought I'd trade it. I opened it on a DOM and the bid/ask were outside my range of view most of the time.
Screw this, I said, and lit up some more POT
I must admit, I have not followed this whole thread, but can you explain what you mean?
Quote from NoDoji:
Neke, you've come a long way with your risk management. A big congrats on that...
Quote from HattieTheWitch:
I must admit, I have not followed this whole thread, but can you explain what you mean?
After all, he has lost > 35% of his account in 3 months.
Buy BIDU at market open on Monday. If it opens flat, put your stop in at 582. If it opens down, put your stop in somewhere between 570 and 585 depending on the open. I think BIDU has fairly high probability of going to 610-615. Sell around there somewhere or wait for a close below the upper bb before your sell is triggered.
Now I'm off to light up some granddaddy purp kush...
Quote from darwin666:
BIDU. BIDU... .. has costed many folks HUGE LOSSES in the last week..
hence ur 1K is minimal.
i think NEKE lost 90 K one week some time ago and most was on BIDU.
it is a PORTFOLIO KILLER..
Quote from darwin666:
BIDU. BIDU... .. has costed many folks HUGE LOSSES in the last week..
hence ur 1K is minimal.
i think NEKE lost 90 K one week some time ago and most was on BIDU.
it is a PORTFOLIO KILLER..
Quote from HattieTheWitch:
I must admit, I have not followed this whole thread, but can you explain what you mean?
After all, he has lost > 35% of his account in 3 months.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Quote from NoDoji:
He lost around $100K on a BIDU trade this year. To limit a loss to $10K this time is a big step forward in risk management, IMHO.
Tight risk management means it's tougher to leverage your way to $4 million, but your risk of ruin is almost nil once mastered.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Quote from bwolinsky:
$610-$615. Damn, better get right on it. I think you're wrong. It'll be to $900 before the market even opens and likely higher b/c of this post.
Weekly Update for week 12/50 ended 04/03/2010
Positive week, up 7.8K (3.2%).
Nice week with no major surprise, and no forced liquidation. Made two options trades, one lost 1.8K the other gained 2.9K. My automated strategies performed really well, with maximum loss of just $802 and maximum gain of $2,200.
Will ramp up average dollar size on my automated stock strategies next week to 62.5K (25% of balance of c. $250K) from the existing 48K (20% of then balance of $240K). This is in line with my acceleration formula. Forced liquidation limit for my discretionary trades remains 6K for stocks, and 9K for options.
code:
Opening Balance: 246,665 Net gain for the week 7,847 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 254,512 Number of Trades 17 Number of Profitable Trades 10 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 04/03/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 155,488 (Down 38%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 254,512 Number of Trades 446 Number of Profitable Trades 212
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 12/50 ended 04/03/2010
Positive week, up 7.8K (3.2%).
Quote from NoDoji:
Awesome week, Neke!
I noticed you do a lot of trades despite having a full time job. Is this your automated system doing most of that, and are you able to monitor it, or are you simply trusting it to handle everything properly?
Nice job this week neke.
Question, how did you setup your automated system? How much did it cost to program, and does it run on your computer, or does it run on a server somewhere that has a direct connection to the exchanges?
There is a company called Rithmic that runs automated systems for people on their own servers that have direct connections.
kon
Quote from konviction:
Nice job this week neke.
Question, how did you setup your automated system? How much did it cost to program, and does it run on your computer, or does it run on a server somewhere that has a direct connection to the exchanges?
There is a company called Rithmic that runs automated systems for people on their own servers that have direct connections.
kon
Wait! I thought you blew up your account?
Nice trading neke chipping away at the numbers. Glad to see you are getting better at tuning out the noise.
Quote from FutsTrader111:
I hadn't checked this thread in over 2 months. Sorry to say Neke, but you are not going to make it in this game if you don't learn to put in what I call "disaster prevention" rules to stop you from blowing up.
You should have time framed drawdown rules in your business plan.
Here are my rules:
1) A 5% drawdown in any 20 day stretch requires position resizing of half of original intent.
2) A 8% drawdown in any 20 day stretch requires 2 months of time away from the markets.
3) A 15% drawdown in any 60 day stretch requires a 4 months of time away from the markets.
4) A loss of 30% or more in the funds entirety requires a shutdown of operations and to never return to trading.
5) As long as there is a portfolio loss, you are not allowed to take on any position with original sized intent. In addition, you may not trade more than 50% of capital in sum until you have brought your portfolio to a gain.
This is the second time I've seen you drawdown like this Neke. You need to penalize yourself. You need consequences. It is the only way to prevent you from taking on big drawdowns like this.
You are taking on too many trades in a market that is light in volatility. In other words, your system is chopping you up and up good.
In addition, when you press yourself with too lofty of a goal, you take on more than you can chew. Realize, that if you can do 50% year over year you are doing well. Perhaps set goals you can achieve rather than trying to impress.
Quote from athlonmank8:
Man, you're quite the dictator.
#4 is ludicrous. You're not going to learn anything if you don't blow out a few times. Never return to trading? lol.
Let's be realistic here. With all the time you're taking off from trading, you're never going to learn anything.
= "gambling"
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. Balls. If you don't bet big, you will have a hard time making big returns. You have to be able to deal with big drawdowns if you want to make high returns.
Quote from Pumpy Dumper:
Buy BIDU at market open on Monday. If it opens flat, put your stop in at 582. If it opens down, put your stop in somewhere between 570 and 585 depending on the open. I think BIDU has fairly high probability of going to 610-615. Sell around there somewhere or wait for a close below the upper bb before your sell is triggered.
Now I'm off to light up some granddaddy purp kush...
Ok I'm done
Quote from Pumpy Dumper:
Hit my mark in 6 days. The probabilities were with me. Anything over 630 is a screaming sell according to my 'system'. Also, if 613 holds as support tomorrow, increase the size. It's all based on the open tomorrow. Exit can be determined thereafter through intraday trending and watching for the break.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Quote from bwolinsky:
Did you find it was more ethical to pump and dump all of the stocks you have mentioned if you tell us up front that that's what you're doing?
GD
Neke, do you have a max risk per trade limit?
Quote from traderrn:
Neke, do you have a max risk per trade limit?
Weekly Update for week 13/50 ended 04/10/2010
Moderately positive week, up 5K (2.0%).
The week began horribly on Monday. Held only a bunch of shorts in my account, and lost 11K for the day with the market rally. The biggest one was CREE. Faded 3000 @ 76.21, another 2000 @ 77.2, had to take a loss @ 77.60 near the close of the market as the end-of-day squeeze kept the stock rising - bigger size than my current risk level dictates.
Recovered nicely the rest of the week, and added some 5K.
code:
Opening Balance: 254,512 Net gain for the week 5,008 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 259,520 Number of Trades 25 Number of Profitable Trades 17 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 04/03/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 150,480 (Down 37%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 259,520 Number of Trades 471 Number of Profitable Trades 229 SPYAPR172010116.0CALL 2010-04-08-09-33-51 2010-04-08-11-56-05 10000 22500 26500 3856 SPY CALL CREE 2010-04-05-09-52-27 2010-04-05-15-55-29 5000 387997 383170 -4862 SHORT
another nice week.
Hi neke:
Good work this week. But why short CREE. 15 months in an uptrend. The last 6 being very strong. Gapper looks like strength. Why not catch a weak stock on a rally in a strong downtrend.
Weekly Update for week 14/50 ended 04/17/2010
Mournful week, down 37K (14%).
Just when I thought I've started getting it together managing the risk. On Wednesday, got stopped out of ISRG on my ISRG shorts when the 6K loss limit was violated (such was the relentless uptrend). Took on too much size. Then got a double-whammy on Thursday from the same ISRG after earnings. Bought just after the earnings in after-hours, 1000 @ 397, and added another 500 GOOG @ 580, thinking the negative reaction was unwarranted, all just before leaving the office. Ignored all the flashing red light that the size was too much as the stocks were yet to settle. Drove off from the office, and by the time I got home and checked, as feared both positions were firmly against me. Closed ISRG @ 373, losing 24K, and GOOG @ 566, losing 7K. (Because this was after hours, my position monitor was powerless as the market order to close the positions would not have executed until the following day). I have tried to avoid doing anything with my automation to execute limit orders after hours (whether entry or closing) due to fear of wrong quotes and illiquidity; but with this I will have to extend my monitoring to include orders entered after hours, exiting at a limit if loss limit is exceeded.
Back to reduced size, and days of sorrowing.
code:
Opening Balance: 259,520 Net loss for the week 36,826 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 222,682 Number of Trades 24 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 04/17/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 187,318 (Down 46%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 222,682 Number of Trades 495 Number of Profitable Trades 240 ISRG 2010-04-14-09-53-31 2010-04-14-10-48-46 1500 571500 565083 -6455 SHORT GOOG 2010-04-15-16-05-56 2010-04-15-17-49-17 500 290353 283302 -7070 LONG ISRG 2010-04-15-16-13-38 2010-04-15-17-49-52 1000 397954 373825 -24149 LONG
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 14/50 ended 04/17/2010
Mournful week, down 37K (14%).
Just when I thought I've started getting it together managing the risk. On Wednesday, got stopped out of ISRG on my ISRG shorts when the 6K loss limit was violated (such was the relentless uptrend). Took on too much size. Then got a double-whammy on Thursday from the same ISRG after earnings. Bought just after the earnings in after-hours, 1000 @ 397, and added another 500 GOOG @ 580, thinking the negative reaction was unwarranted, all just before leaving the office. Ignored all the flashing red light that the size was too much as the stocks were yet to settle. Drove off from the office, and by the time I got home and checked, as feared both positions were firmly against me. Closed ISRG @ 373, losing 24K, and GOOG @ 566, losing 7K. (Because this was after hours, my position monitor was powerless as the market order to close the positions would not have executed until the following day). I have tried to avoid doing anything with my automation to execute limit orders after hours (whether entry or closing) due to fear of wrong quotes and illiquidity; but with this I will have to extend my monitoring to include orders entered after hours, exiting at a limit if loss limit is exceeded.
Back to reduced size, and days of sorrowing.
code:
Opening Balance: 259,520 Net loss for the week 36,826 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 222,682 Number of Trades 24 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 04/17/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 187,318 (Down 46%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 222,682 Number of Trades 495 Number of Profitable Trades 240 ISRG 2010-04-14-09-53-31 2010-04-14-10-48-46 1500 571500 565083 -6455 SHORT GOOG 2010-04-15-16-05-56 2010-04-15-17-49-17 500 290353 283302 -7070 LONG ISRG 2010-04-15-16-13-38 2010-04-15-17-49-52 1000 397954 373825 -24149 LONG
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 14/50 ended 04/17/2010
Mournful week, down 37K (14%).
Just when I thought I've started getting it together managing the risk...
now you need change thread into "taking 200k to 25k" by year end 2010
q1 410k becomes 205k -50%
q2 205k becomes 102k -50%
q3 102k becomes 50k -50%
q4 50k becomes 25k -50%
better made the generous donation decision now, so you get good tax relief
buy top and sell bottom is very common among investors
standing in front of a freight train when its going your direction right after earnings come out..
I wouldn't call that trading, espically when you don't have a long term view on the position, That momentum of the train will run you over that day 110% of the time.
Check all your big losses, all of them was standing in front of a train , manual bets.
__________________
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why is this bad luck? Its bad discipline. Neke, seriously, why did you add size at a time you should have known you have limited control over your position? You made a coin toss style bet, I dont think thats the edge you are seeking, are you?
Quote from darwin666:
Bad luck buddy..
darn.
so you are saying you first shorted ISRG.. then suddenly decided to go long.. in after hours.?? then (another cardinal sin) left the position and drove home. with no stops in place.. and then finally closed it .
I was short both ISRG and GOOG and was sweating.. but both of mine were OTM positions.. naked calls OTM. 420 strike for ISRG and 650 strike for GOOG.
for my ISRG, I got a margin call in After hours. .for my options as it had spiked to 409. but if u observe the chart ,it was brief
ISRG.- was fully cooked, I think the short strategy would have played out( its easy to say in hind sight) but the pressure was too much... next time If I see such a setup, i will be long rather short and sweating away..
ISRG once ruined me when it jumped from 160 to 225 after results. but since then always its OTM premiums have increased and I choose strikes as far away as possible. but it is another PORTFOLIO Killer.
absolutely correct. Neke, when some of us looked at your large losses harder than you yourself did then there is definitely something wrong. What? You dont look hard enough at your biggest losses and as a result do not learn from them. You still try to fade moves which is ok for some (I myself am a huge proponent of trading breakouts and being on the direction of the trend) but what you are doing is dumb, going against the trend without stop, HOPING for the better. I wonder why you dont investigate a lot more what you actually did wrong!!! If you fade moves but cannot put in a stop or control the situation then DO NOT put on the position, I am very surprised you did not put this down as one of the most important points in your trading repertoire a lot earlier.
Quote from coolweb:
standing in front of a freight train when its going your direction right after earnings come out..
I wouldn't call that trading, espically when you don't have a long term view on the position, That momentum of the train will run you over that day 110% of the time.
Check all your big losses, all of them was standing in front of a train , manual bets.
The ISRG is what I'd call a revenge trade. Having steel balls can be bad and good for a trader like Neke. I think part of the problem is a lot of your trades are based on emotion. Trading during your regular job makes it even more difficult to trade efficiently.
Take a look at selling naked CALLS for big cap plays. Don't go crazy, just enough to slowly build back your bankroll. Apple 270 May CALLS would fetch you 2.45 a contract. Apple would have to go up 25 points in a month before you'd be at a loss. The stock is priced to perfection. BIDU 750 CALLS priced at 3.50. The highest price target on BIDU is 730.
Good luck to you
Extending your automation to after hours seems like an idea that will lead to disaster or at least negative unintended results.
I think your better off just ensuring you can manually baby sit any afterhours trades, or else not trade them.
Quote from WallStWhizKid:
The ISRG is what I'd call a revenge trade. Having steel balls can be bad and good for a trader like Neke. I think part of the problem is a lot of your trades are based on emotion. Trading during your regular job makes it even more difficult to trade efficiently.
Take a look at selling naked CALLS for big cap plays. Don't go crazy, just enough to slowly build back your bankroll. Apple 270 May CALLS would fetch you 2.45 a contract. Apple would have to go up 25 points in a month before you'd be at a loss. The stock is priced to perfection. BIDU 750 CALLS priced at 3.50. The highest price target on BIDU is 730.
Good luck to you
This guy is going to blow up. He's been on a losing streak since November of last year.
His automated trading seems to be doing well, but he can't help himself from putting on large discretionary trade.
I'm assuming he keeps on putting large discretionary trades more for the emotional rush than for the money. Which in 100% of the cases translates into a monetary disaster. Should have bought those rental properties as someone suggested last year instead of giving it all back to Mr. Market.
Quote from fkbsuhites:
I'm assuming he keeps on putting large discretionary trades more for the emotional rush than for the money.
I appreciate the thread warts and all. Neke you show how difficult it is to trade. The paradox of keeping losses small is that you have to let a lot of trades go. Watching the train leave the station without you is tough but at this point you have to stick to the max loss whatever you deem that to be. People can sit here all day and criticize and/or give advice but this is your journey so enjoy the ride. Remember being rich or poor doesn't make you a better human being. There will be lots of opportunities next week so hang in there.
http://www.webtrading.com/phantom/chapter5.htm
Trading earnings are a complete gamble, as No Doji pretty much said herself. A lot of people trade earnings in hope of fast money of a gap up or strong rally the day after.
The problem though wasnt ISRG earnings, it was when he kept trading dispite his the 5k loss limit.
Weekly Update for week 15/50 ended 04/24/2010
Nice week, up 12K (5.3%).
Lots of activity on the automated front with the stream of earnings in play. Got a decent sum there, plus some nice option plays buying SPY on the dip.
Next week should be active well as earnings season peaks.
code:
Opening Balance: 222,682 Net gain for the week 11,768 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 234,450 Number of Trades 30 Number of Profitable Trades 14 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 04/24/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 175,550 (Down 43%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 234,450 Number of Trades 501 Number of Profitable Trades 242
I will never understand the mindset of a trader who *supposedly* is trading real money posting their trades on some Internet trading board. It's almost a set up for failure because of the ego factor. I also cannot fanthom how any real trader could lose over 40% of their trading capital amid one of the greatest bull runs of all time.
Quote from SkepticTrader:
I will never understand the mindset of a trader who *supposedly* is trading real money posting their trades on some Internet trading board. It's almost a set up for failure because of the ego factor. I also cannot fanthom how any real trader could lose over 40% of their trading capital amid one of the greatest bull runs of all time.
Quote from freewilly:
2. Guess you never short a market. As a matter of fact, the market is way overdue for a major correction. The FED has pumped too much money in the market and the market is so distorted now. If you can't believe people can lose money in a bull market, guess you don't believe people can make money in a bear market either. You only trade one direction of the market. [/B]
Quote from freewilly:
1. because you don't believe people can help each other on internet. I appreciate Neke's effort.
2. Guess you never short a market. As a matter of fact, the market is way overdue for a major correction. The FED has pumped too much money in the market and the market is so distorted now. If you can't believe people can lose money in a bull market, guess you don't believe people can make money in a bear market either. You only trade one direction of the market.
Well shorting in itself is not wrong, even during the occasional fall out during those past weeks' runup. I made a nice stash on Thursday when all the indexes sold off and the euro got crushed. Its about when to take profit when being right and run as fast as you can, knowing we are still in a strong uptrend or to cut losses immediately when things dont work out. I would never get into a position without initial confirmation and strong catalyst. On Thursday it was the Greek budget deficit surprise, a Fitch report on Japanese government debt. But I waited with my short until initial support levels were broken and the market clearly started selling off because of the same reasons that I saw. I was lucky enough to cover at the almost precise low. I did not expect the market would rebound as fast as it did so that was a lucky exit. (evidence available upon PM request).
Why I say that is because I simply do not see catalysts or confirmations in some of the names Neke shorts or longs other than something ran up too much or sold off too much, which in my book is no explanation nor reason to ever get into any position. Maybe Neke can comment a little more on those discretionary positons and why he exactly took them but I still claim he did not reflect enough on his past mistakes to have made the best out of this learning lesson.
Quote from salvador90:
Why so?
I short the market too and for the past 12 months only shorted it twice or three times, on July 2009, October 09 and last February.
There is simply no reason to short the market, and why a trader keeps insisting on it is beyond me. No matter how rigged, how manipulated or how much money is being pumped up, the fact is the market has been going up, and I better stay on the right side, since ranting about how rigged or manipulated this is won't be doin' much help to me or is it?
Quote from NoDoji:
I really doubt he's putting on these trades for an emotional rush. I'm guessing he's putting on these trades because he's seen certain things happen often in the past on these volatile momentum stocks and believes they're likely to happen again. GOOG beats earnings and sells off hard.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Maybe those that live in glass houses should not be throwing stones...
Quote from bwolinsky:
What were we talking about? Ah, yes, expecting large amounts of incompetent newbies to do nothing but buy the market is not a very good long term plan to bet the farm on. [/B]
he, good laugh. But equally applicable....countless wannabe quants who believe the world yields to the same statistical properties they observed in the past, rejecting that even those properties change dynamically. Niederhoffer is a great example of someone committing such sin over and over. Bwolinsky seems to think a good programmer or a good ATS makes an automatic money machine. If it really is true I always wondered why he had to advertise his services on the shadiest websites there are. It does not exactly help your reputation but I guess to everyone his own... ;-)
Quote from oraclewizard77:
Maybe those that live in glass houses should not be throwing stones...
Quote from asiaprop:
he, good laugh. But equally applicable....countless wannabe quants who believe the world yields to the same statistical properties they observed in the past, rejecting that even those properties change dynamically. Niederhoffer is a great example of someone committing such sin over and over. Bwolinsky seems to think a good programmer or a good ATS makes an automatic money machine. If it really is true I always wondered why he had to advertise his services on the shadiest websites there are. It does not exactly help your reputation but I guess to everyone his own... ;-)
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
april 28, 2010
http://www.google.ca/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:AAPL
268.64
+7.04 (2.69%)
Quote from TRYKtrading:
lol. an airline stock. a health website? are you nuts?
AAPL
dump every dime you have long into apple and sit back and watch it split 4:1 and break earnings wide open next quarter because of the ipad. jesus, does it have to be so fucking complicated making money trading? it's so damn obvious. and y'all miss it every time.
neke.. have u seen BIDU.. portfolio killer or maker... i KNOW you must have played big with him..
come on. /.spit it out
Quote from darwin666:
neke.. have u seen BIDU.. portfolio killer or maker... i KNOW you must have played big with him..
come on. /.spit it out
Quote from TRYKtrading:
too bad most prop managers won't let guys like neke trade bidu, or he'd have made his whole year back just today.
Baidu, Inc.(ADR)
(Public, NASDAQ:BIDU)
709.87
+88.49 (14.24%)
just sick.
time to go short...
This will be interesting to see if Neke was tempted to get involved.....
Weekly Update for week 16/50 ended 04/30/2010
Nice week, up 14K (5.8%).
Once more got a lot of activity with earnings season and an uptick in volatility. Caught flat-footed on Tuesday with the market sell-off, forced out with a loss of 6K on my SPY call. Made that up and more through the remainder of the week.
code:
Opening Balance: 234,450 Net gain for the week 13,557 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 248,007 Number of Trades 42 Number of Profitable Trades 29 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 04/30/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 161,993 (Down 40%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 248,007 Number of Trades 543 Number of Profitable Trades 271 BIDUMAY222010700.0CALL 2010-04-29-11-40-29 2010-04-29-14-04-47 1000 28500 33500 4967 BIDU CALL SPYMAY222010120.0CALL 2010-04-27-09-57-04 2010-04-27-11-31-35 10000 24000 17900 -6244 SPY CALL
Quote from comfy_slippers:
This will be interesting to see if Neke was tempted to get involved.....
Quote from neke:
Yeah, bought the pull-back to the $705 area on the stock (on Thursday) with calls @ 28.50, closed later at 33.50. Just 10 contracts which netted 5K.
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Quote from coolweb:
At your capital level 200-500k, you should be trading at 10-20 contract levels.
Not 100 like before.
This is the bottom for you Neke. Hang in there.
Quote from NoDoji:
That's why if you trade earnings in extended hours you are gambling and should expect no better results than placing your bet on red or black at the Roulette wheel.
Quote from FutsTrader111:
You forget, that for some on here a 50-50 bet is often an edge
__________________
"He was looking for the card so high and wild he'd never need to deal another "
Leonard Cohen
Quote from neke:
Yeah, bought the pull-back to the $705 area on the stock (on Thursday) with calls @ 28.50, closed later at 33.50. Just 10 contracts which netted 5K.
Quote from Dr Who:
Since when is betting on black or red in roulette a 50/50 prop ?
That's just the reasoning behind why so many lose......
Neke you blow your account? You are awfully quite there. Yesterday had to be a big swing day for you.
Quote from FutsTrader111:
Neke you blow your account? You are awfully quite there. Yesterday had to be a big swing day for you.
Gonna be a six figure day for you Neke. Nice scoops off the open!
Quote from neke:
Au contraire, I am counting the cash in my account after scooping up the early morning sell-off. Here are some of the green in my account - Hope they stay!:
Now I know who's responsible when I get those 3-share partial fills
Quote from TRYKtrading:
too bad most prop managers won't let guys like neke trade bidu, or he'd have made his whole year back just today.
Baidu, Inc.(ADR)
(Public, NASDAQ:BIDU)
709.87
+88.49 (14.24%)
just sick.
time to go short...
just one nite only - took out the profit and many extra zero in our a/c..champagne and fireworks--sparkle and spectacular like the shanghai world expo 2010 ... amazingly beautiful
Down 56K. This is surreal!
that's what happens when you try to catch falling knives...
Quote from neke:
Down 56K. This is surreal!
Quote from neke:
Down 56K. This is surreal!
I shorted NQ at 1867 , got stoped out @ 1872 , and market droped +130 points.....
FUCK MY LIFE.
Quote from neveral0ne:
I shorted NQ at 1867 , got stoped out @ 1872 , and market droped +130 points.....
FUCK MY LIFE.
I was going with the momentym didnt think its going to bother going up especially at that time, and to my exact level, wow this is insane.
No wonder people commit suicide playing this game ...
Quote from jmonday:
that's why you don't use tiny stops in big volatility days
you might as well shoot yourself in the foot
Quote from jmonday:
that's why you don't use tiny stops in big volatility days
you might as well shoot yourself in the foot
Doji did you have a crazy record day ? =)
Quote from neveral0ne:
Doji did you have a crazy record day ? =)
Quote from NoDoji:
No, I'm just slow and steady wins the race. Watched CL and ES half the day for signs of a reversal to the long side because they seemed very overdone (lmfao about that now). I traded my old standby, POT, 1 long, 2 shorts, done before 11:00am with a little over a G. Kind of sad I didn't hang on to that last short I covered @ 102.41...
Quote from neke:
Down 56K. This is surreal!
Quote from ~~~:
take a good rest and tomorrow is another day and hopefully a sunny day for you.
Quote from Alexandre:
tomorrow is saturday
Quote from Alexandre:
tomorrow is saturday
Lost 37k! Made 12K and 14K! Lost 56k! Christ, all of you should just admit it that you never want Neke to go fully automated. I seriously and finally thought Neke was on a pathway to full automation and thus dooming this thread with the boring notes of an automated trader but BOY was I wrong! Neke, its time to go balls to the wall, go double or nothing and go all ween babiiii! Youuuu cannn doooo ittttt! Accept your destiny!
in fairness to anyone trading size,getting out of yesterday if you were on the wrong side for 37k is a breath of fresh air considering the alternative
Quote from neke:
Down 56K. This is surreal!
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Doji tell us how you never have a losing day trading futures?You must tell us your secret as i've never heard of anyone who trades futures with a win % like yours.
Quote from piggie2000:
Doji tell us how you never have a losing day trading futures?You must tell us your secret as i've never heard of anyone who trades futures with a win % like yours.
Weekly Update for week 17/50 ended 05/07/2010
Nasty week, down 34K (13.7%). New low for the year. Seems it is becoming two steps forward and one nasty step backward from personal indiscretion or market madness as in this case. Can't complain very much though since for the most part it was my automation working according to rules: but it is apparent I have not made enough provision for extreme volatility like witnessed this week.
Was long a bunch of oil-related issues early Monday which I was too glad to close at break-even. Should have stayed and let the automation close the trades, but was heading for meeting and was fearful of letting the positions remain. The account should have been a lot more. Wednesday was long again a basket of stocks and was up more than 40k at one time (soon after posting the screen shots), but was greedy (after Mondays lesson) wishing to capture even more gains. Was not to be as the market pull-back turned into a sell-off, and I closed with half of the profits gone. That should still have made for a nice week until Thursday. Well everyone knew what happened then. Was triggered into a bunch of stocks early in the day, and watched in horror as one-by-one they all got stopped out at maximum loss (6K). What was worse, as the positions closed they released more buying power for my automation to initiate new positions which got stopped out. By the end of the infamous spike down (3pm) I was down 61K for the day when I triggered remote shut-down of the application. Well none of my stocks made the bust list (Would cetainly have been horrendous to be down 60% per stock!).
I have used my maximum-loss stop rules for three months now, and not once have I been stopped on an automated position (only discretionary ones that I averaged down). So it was a real shocker that I have to think of ways to avoid - like closing all positions and shutting down for the day if I am stopped twice. I will have to see what options to take over the week-end. I still believe my automation is the way to go.
Bye for now.
code:
Opening Balance: 248,007 Net loss for the week 34,049 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 213,958 Number of Trades 57 Number of Profitable Trades 25 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 05/07/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 196,042 (Down 48%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 213,958 Number of Trades 600 Number of Profitable Trades 296
Quote from ~~~:
yesterday was a Super, Super Good Day for traders because it's Super Volatile and it's great for traders to make Huge Amount of Money.
since two month ago with the market going up & up and the greece & now spain $ problem... the market is long over-due for a Major down-turn.
I lost all my profits I've had since October of 09 this week. Even though Monday was my best single trading day ever.No smart words from my end other than it was a tough trading week and I very much appreciate your thread !!!!
Quote from piggie2000:
Doji tell us how you never have a losing day trading futures?You must tell us your secret as i've never heard of anyone who trades futures with a win % like yours.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 17/50 ended 05/07/2010
Nasty week, down 34K (13.7%). New low for the year. Seems it is becoming two steps forward and one nasty step backward from personal indiscretion or market madness as in this case. Can't complain very much though since for the most part it was my automation working according to rules: but it is apparent I have not made enough provision for extreme volatility like witnessed this week.
Good info...
Quote from NoDoji:
I've laid out on this site exactly how I trade in painstaking detail. I posted my ugly messy journey in getting to where I am now. I've often posted my trading blotters and my charts with entries and exits and reasons so anyone can look at a chart and compare what I did to all the detail I've posted here about how I trade. I've described my thought processes behind the trade and also the crowd psychology behind the T/A. Not much more I can add at this point.
I spent months trading ES and CL in my sim account, month after month after month, because when I first started trading ES live I sucked. I'd either stop out for a scratch only to watch the trade move nicely without me, or I'd place a wider stop and that would get hit. I decided it just wasn't for me until I figured it out in sim.
Every night I moved my charts off the screen to the hard right edge and worked on choosing "A" setups, with entry, stop, and target (still do this, by the way). "A" setups have a lot of confluence, reinforced by a variety of factors that I've outlined in many previous posts. So I got to the point where I was having 90% win rate backtesting on paper and duplicating it in real-time in sim AS LONG AS I only took the best setups. It came down to trading with the trend or waiting for confirmed reversal, using momentum in my favor so I could quickly move stops to break even, and also curing myself of "miss the boat" disease where I'd get in too soon because I was afraid I'd miss a move. So what, you miss the first move, but the second move is confirmed and those trades are SO DAMN EASY!
I PM'd a friend on ET back in January after achieving this incredible record of backtesting on paper and sim trading and said, "I always feel like there should be NO reason to have a losing day, but that's crazy, or is it??? In the past when I was all confidence and no fear (and no risk mgmt as well) I seemed to have very long strings of winning days."
And he replied to me: "I know of no reason not to have many consecutive winning days."
I was plagued by this irrational fear (planted in my psyche by all the naysayers on ET) that as soon as I started trading futures live everything I achieved in paper/sim would vanish and I'd started losing everything, because I was told again and again that futures traders all blow up.
Well, I finally got over that, and guess what? Everything I was accomplishing in sim actually worked in my live account. Wow, imagine that!
I also have an incredible visual memory for patterns and numbers. I know the phone number of every store I've ever called, every friend I've ever called. I know my credit card numbers by heart, my VIN numbers at least 3 cars back. I keep thinking I'll run out of brain space someday but so far so good. So something as visual as trading is easy for me now that I mastered patterns that signal the easy trades.
I posted my trading blotter on ES Journal today. Look at those trades and tell me they weren't low risk/high reward setups.
I will have losing trades because even the best setups can fail, but I venture to guess that my losing days will remain very much in the minority. If I'm one day killed by a black swan event like yesterday's crash, well that's the nature of this business, anything can happen.
When you manage money, i think its better to not initiate new market positions or be in it every single day , thats market premium risk you are eating everyday, and one day it might bite your ass.
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Quote from newguy05:
are you fucking kidding, how the hell is thurs a good day for traders? doesnt matter if you are long or short, it was one of the worst days. I am sure there are a few who got lucky with the dice roll but that doesnt change anything
wtf....
Neke, sorry to hear the loss, but no need to blame yourself too hard. Just write it off, it only happened in 100 years, as they say.
it's been well documented what you and neke have done,winners and losers all laid out,i wouldn't worry about the critics,we have no idea what they have done wins or losses,wonder why
Quote from NoDoji:
I've laid out on this site exactly how I trade in painstaking detail. I posted my ugly messy journey in getting to where I am now. I've often posted my trading blotters and my charts with entries and exits and reasons so anyone can look at a chart and compare what I did to all the detail I've posted here about how I trade. I've described my thought processes behind the trade and also the crowd psychology behind the T/A. Not much more I can add at this point.
I spent months trading ES and CL in my sim account, month after month after month, because when I first started trading ES live I sucked. I'd either stop out for a scratch only to watch the trade move nicely without me, or I'd place a wider stop and that would get hit. I decided it just wasn't for me until I figured it out in sim.
Every night I moved my charts off the screen to the hard right edge and worked on choosing "A" setups, with entry, stop, and target (still do this, by the way). "A" setups have a lot of confluence, reinforced by a variety of factors that I've outlined in many previous posts. So I got to the point where I was having 90% win rate backtesting on paper and duplicating it in real-time in sim AS LONG AS I only took the best setups. It came down to trading with the trend or waiting for confirmed reversal, using momentum in my favor so I could quickly move stops to break even, and also curing myself of "miss the boat" disease where I'd get in too soon because I was afraid I'd miss a move. So what, you miss the first move, but the second move is confirmed and those trades are SO DAMN EASY!
I PM'd a friend on ET back in January after achieving this incredible record of backtesting on paper and sim trading and said, "I always feel like there should be NO reason to have a losing day, but that's crazy, or is it??? In the past when I was all confidence and no fear (and no risk mgmt as well) I seemed to have very long strings of winning days."
And he replied to me: "I know of no reason not to have many consecutive winning days."
I was plagued by this irrational fear (planted in my psyche by all the naysayers on ET) that as soon as I started trading futures live everything I achieved in paper/sim would vanish and I'd started losing everything, because I was told again and again that futures traders all blow up.
Well, I finally got over that, and guess what? Everything I was accomplishing in sim actually worked in my live account. Wow, imagine that!
I also have an incredible visual memory for patterns and numbers. I know the phone number of every store I've ever called, every friend I've ever called. I know my credit card numbers by heart, my VIN numbers at least 3 cars back. I keep thinking I'll run out of brain space someday but so far so good. So something as visual as trading is easy for me now that I mastered patterns that signal the easy trades.
I posted my trading blotter on ES Journal today. Look at those trades and tell me they weren't low risk/high reward setups.
I will have losing trades because even the best setups can fail, but I venture to guess that my losing days will remain very much in the minority. If I'm one day killed by a black swan event like yesterday's crash, well that's the nature of this business, anything can happen.
Neke,
I really enjoy reading this forum and admire you for having the courage to put it all out there for the world to see. I don't recall posting here before but feel obliged to tell you this.
In just over four months you've lost nearly half of your capital. Your system has failed. Free advice on the Internet isn't worth much, but I've been playing this game for twenty years, full time for the last ten.
You need to stop, take a breath and get your head together before you blow out. Take some time away from the markets, rework your system and come back with a fresh start.
Your losses are way too large. WAY TOO LARGE. Although you average about fifty percent winners to losers, your losers are bigger than your winners. Do the math.
When you come back, if you do, set your loss limit to between 1% to 1/4 of one percent of your account size and develop some consistency, with this you will regain confidence, which you should have already lost.
There is no need to blow this account out. You still have amble capital but you need to regroup.
Good luck and I hope that you at least think about it.
You def need to breath for a week or so.
Sometimes you cant force things.
Quote from NoDoji:
I've laid out on this site exactly how I trade in painstaking detail. I posted my ugly messy journey in getting to where I am now. I've often posted my trading blotters and my charts with entries and exits and reasons so anyone can look at a chart and compare what I did to all the detail I've posted here about how I trade. I've described my thought processes behind the trade and also the crowd psychology behind the T/A. Not much more I can add at this point.
I spent months trading ES and CL in my sim account, month after month after month, because when I first started trading ES live I sucked. I'd either stop out for a scratch only to watch the trade move nicely without me, or I'd place a wider stop and that would get hit. I decided it just wasn't for me until I figured it out in sim.
Every night I moved my charts off the screen to the hard right edge and worked on choosing "A" setups, with entry, stop, and target (still do this, by the way). "A" setups have a lot of confluence, reinforced by a variety of factors that I've outlined in many previous posts. So I got to the point where I was having 90% win rate backtesting on paper and duplicating it in real-time in sim AS LONG AS I only took the best setups. It came down to trading with the trend or waiting for confirmed reversal, using momentum in my favor so I could quickly move stops to break even, and also curing myself of "miss the boat" disease where I'd get in too soon because I was afraid I'd miss a move. So what, you miss the first move, but the second move is confirmed and those trades are SO DAMN EASY!
I PM'd a friend on ET back in January after achieving this incredible record of backtesting on paper and sim trading and said, "I always feel like there should be NO reason to have a losing day, but that's crazy, or is it??? In the past when I was all confidence and no fear (and no risk mgmt as well) I seemed to have very long strings of winning days."
And he replied to me: "I know of no reason not to have many consecutive winning days."
I was plagued by this irrational fear (planted in my psyche by all the naysayers on ET) that as soon as I started trading futures live everything I achieved in paper/sim would vanish and I'd started losing everything, because I was told again and again that futures traders all blow up.
Well, I finally got over that, and guess what? Everything I was accomplishing in sim actually worked in my live account. Wow, imagine that!
I also have an incredible visual memory for patterns and numbers. I know the phone number of every store I've ever called, every friend I've ever called. I know my credit card numbers by heart, my VIN numbers at least 3 cars back. I keep thinking I'll run out of brain space someday but so far so good. So something as visual as trading is easy for me now that I mastered patterns that signal the easy trades.
I posted my trading blotter on ES Journal today. Look at those trades and tell me they weren't low risk/high reward setups.
I will have losing trades because even the best setups can fail, but I venture to guess that my losing days will remain very much in the minority. If I'm one day killed by a black swan event like yesterday's crash, well that's the nature of this business, anything can happen.
I agree with ~~~. Thursday was a great day for traders. I had my best day in 2010. Such extreme volatility is rare. I watched as ES futures plunged down to -100 from -50 in a matter of minutes... never happened before my eyes before). If you have lived through one, it might just help you how to react. I lived through the week of chaos in September 2008. I knew to put on a lid on my risks (trade smaller size than normal, expecting larger swings in price moves, etc.), but take advantage of the situation if it can lead to good trades.
Neke: automation may or may not be the key. Personally I don't automate my trades because I cannot put my thoughts and tactics into a set of if-then statements and account for all scenarios. (And I am a former computer programmer.) Not to say it can't be done. Obviously there are many successful algo-trading systems out there. Automated or not, the system/method/tactic has to be sound and consistently profitable first. It's one thing that a trader has been consistently profitable and now wants to automate his thoughts/ideas. It's another thing that someone just thinks about an idea, do some "back testings"... they worked... and then automate to forward-test for real with heavy (full-size) sizes. Just some thoughts.
Quote from Bolimomo:
I agree with ~~~. Thursday was a great day for traders. I had my best day in 2010. Such extreme volatility is rare... but take advantage of the situation if it can lead to good trades.
Quote from NoDoji:
If I'm one day killed by a black swan event like yesterday's crash, well that's the nature of this business, anything can happen.
Quote from NoDoji:
I also have an incredible visual memory for patterns and numbers. I know the phone number of every store I've ever called, every friend I've ever called. I know my credit card numbers by heart, my VIN numbers at least 3 cars back.
Hello NoDoji,
Would you mind mentioning the name of the thread where you laid out the details of how you trade the ES, as referenced below?
thanks,
Walt
Quote from NoDoji:
I've laid out on this site exactly how I trade in painstaking detail. I posted my ugly messy journey in getting to where I am now. I've often posted my trading blotters and my charts with entries and exits and reasons so anyone can look at a chart and compare what I did to all the detail I've posted here about how I trade. I've described my thought processes behind the trade and also the crowd psychology behind the T/A. Not much more I can add at this point.
I spent months trading ES and CL in my sim account, month after month after month, because when I first started trading ES live I sucked. I'd either stop out for a scratch only to watch the trade move nicely without me, or I'd place a wider stop and that would get hit. I decided it just wasn't for me until I figured it out in sim.
Every night I moved my charts off the screen to the hard right edge and worked on choosing "A" setups, with entry, stop, and target (still do this, by the way). "A" setups have a lot of confluence, reinforced by a variety of factors that I've outlined in many previous posts. So I got to the point where I was having 90% win rate backtesting on paper and duplicating it in real-time in sim AS LONG AS I only took the best setups. It came down to trading with the trend or waiting for confirmed reversal, using momentum in my favor so I could quickly move stops to break even, and also curing myself of "miss the boat" disease where I'd get in too soon because I was afraid I'd miss a move. So what, you miss the first move, but the second move is confirmed and those trades are SO DAMN EASY!
I PM'd a friend on ET back in January after achieving this incredible record of backtesting on paper and sim trading and said, "I always feel like there should be NO reason to have a losing day, but that's crazy, or is it??? In the past when I was all confidence and no fear (and no risk mgmt as well) I seemed to have very long strings of winning days."
And he replied to me: "I know of no reason not to have many consecutive winning days."
I was plagued by this irrational fear (planted in my psyche by all the naysayers on ET) that as soon as I started trading futures live everything I achieved in paper/sim would vanish and I'd started losing everything, because I was told again and again that futures traders all blow up.
Well, I finally got over that, and guess what? Everything I was accomplishing in sim actually worked in my live account. Wow, imagine that!
I also have an incredible visual memory for patterns and numbers. I know the phone number of every store I've ever called, every friend I've ever called. I know my credit card numbers by heart, my VIN numbers at least 3 cars back. I keep thinking I'll run out of brain space someday but so far so good. So something as visual as trading is easy for me now that I mastered patterns that signal the easy trades.
I posted my trading blotter on ES Journal today. Look at those trades and tell me they weren't low risk/high reward setups.
I will have losing trades because even the best setups can fail, but I venture to guess that my losing days will remain very much in the minority. If I'm one day killed by a black swan event like yesterday's crash, well that's the nature of this business, anything can happen.
NoD:
You sum up your success very nicely here.
You have developed a solid and reliable system with very high probability and you also execute your trades carefully and this combination ensure your excellent performance.
Question here is:
Do you think which part is more critical? Development of a reliable system or the execution? A lot of people in general think that the trading execution is more critical because it involves discipline, psychology and money management and others,
However, in a lot of situations when people were hesitated, forced and rushed to trade, entered or exited too early or too late were because their systems gave ambiguous signals so they got confused or misled or second guessed the market when they tried to make a decision. But on the other hand, once you have established a system that would work 90% of the time with minimal DD for the other 10%, the execution part should be essentially easier and not too stressful. Of course keeping alert to the market dynamics, it is important, but then again, if your system is accurate and robust enough, it would tell you what to do in time.
I think many people beating themselves hard on their discipline and psychological errors, it is probably the system they rely on is in need of improvement, and the system is the foundation that would offer CONSISTENT performance. Look at you, you work hard and smart to finally established a high probability and reliable system, now every day you profit handsomely no matter what, good day or bad day, feeling good and wonderful or feeling tired and lousy, you always end the day with GREEN.
Thank you for your reply in advance.
Quote from NoDoji:
I've laid out on this site exactly how I trade in painstaking detail. I posted my ugly messy journey in getting to where I am now. I've often posted my trading blotters and my charts with entries and exits and reasons so anyone can look at a chart and compare what I did to all the detail I've posted here about how I trade. I've described my thought processes behind the trade and also the crowd psychology behind the T/A. Not much more I can add at this point.
I spent months trading ES and CL in my sim account, month after month after month, because when I first started trading ES live I sucked. I'd either stop out for a scratch only to watch the trade move nicely without me, or I'd place a wider stop and that would get hit. I decided it just wasn't for me until I figured it out in sim.
Every night I moved my charts off the screen to the hard right edge and worked on choosing "A" setups, with entry, stop, and target (still do this, by the way). "A" setups have a lot of confluence, reinforced by a variety of factors that I've outlined in many previous posts. So I got to the point where I was having 90% win rate backtesting on paper and duplicating it in real-time in sim AS LONG AS I only took the best setups. It came down to trading with the trend or waiting for confirmed reversal, using momentum in my favor so I could quickly move stops to break even, and also curing myself of "miss the boat" disease where I'd get in too soon because I was afraid I'd miss a move. So what, you miss the first move, but the second move is confirmed and those trades are SO DAMN EASY!
I PM'd a friend on ET back in January after achieving this incredible record of backtesting on paper and sim trading and said, "I always feel like there should be NO reason to have a losing day, but that's crazy, or is it??? In the past when I was all confidence and no fear (and no risk mgmt as well) I seemed to have very long strings of winning days."
And he replied to me: "I know of no reason not to have many consecutive winning days."
I was plagued by this irrational fear (planted in my psyche by all the naysayers on ET) that as soon as I started trading futures live everything I achieved in paper/sim would vanish and I'd started losing everything, because I was told again and again that futures traders all blow up.
Well, I finally got over that, and guess what? Everything I was accomplishing in sim actually worked in my live account. Wow, imagine that!
I also have an incredible visual memory for patterns and numbers. I know the phone number of every store I've ever called, every friend I've ever called. I know my credit card numbers by heart, my VIN numbers at least 3 cars back. I keep thinking I'll run out of brain space someday but so far so good. So something as visual as trading is easy for me now that I mastered patterns that signal the easy trades.
I posted my trading blotter on ES Journal today. Look at those trades and tell me they weren't low risk/high reward setups.
I will have losing trades because even the best setups can fail, but I venture to guess that my losing days will remain very much in the minority. If I'm one day killed by a black swan event like yesterday's crash, well that's the nature of this business, anything can happen.
Quote from jones247:
Hello NoDoji,
Would you mind mentioning the name of the thread where you laid out the details of how you trade the ES, as referenced below?
thanks,
Walt
Quote from Math_Wiz:
Do you use memory tricks to remember your VIN numbers?
+-*/ Math_Wiz
Quote from NoDoji:
[B]I've laid out on this site exactly how I trade in painstaking detail. I posted my ugly messy journey in getting to where I am now. I've often posted my trading blotters and my charts with entries and exits and reasons so anyone can look at a chart and compare what I did to all the detail I've posted here about how I trade. I've described my thought processes behind the trade and also the crowd psychology behind the T/A. Not much more I can add at this point.
/B]
Thanks NoDoji,
Your insights are appreciated...
Walt
Quote from NoDoji:
Hi Walt,
It's not about how I trade the ES; it's about how I trade anything. I've told the story here a few times of how I'd never traded anything but stocks and my son was about to demo trade forex with a friend. He saw price had made a huge run up and wanted to sell short because "now it has to come down". I looked at the chart and told him, "No, that's a bull flag, it's going to break out." His reaction was to immediately sell short. And it broke out a couple minutes later, a full measured move up in just minutes.
Technical trading is about the same across the board, from what I can tell.
What held me back so long from trading CL & ES was the larger stop loss I had to deal with. It was a mental block and nothing more.
If you read my posts this year on CL Redux and ES Journal after I posted my trade blotter I think I've offered some of the most detailed reasons for my trades. That pretty much sums up in a nutshell what I look for in setups, why I place my stop where I do, what price I target and why. My journal "NoDoji's Day Trading Log" details my journey from dangerous counter-trend trading to consistent profitability.
I'm currently putting together a PDF of all my rules and setups which I intend to post here when done, to give back to this trading community some of the priceless information many have given me.
No, I don't even WANT to remember them, but I see the number reflected in my windshield and it sticks in my brain. My brain is the Venus fly trap of numbers
Quote from OptionsCharm:
Your methodology you have made no secret of it -- it is simple and clear. The Higher Highs, Lower Lows and cheapskate stops are your trademarks.
Quote from NoDoji:
Hi Walt,
It's not about how I trade the ES; it's about how I trade anything. I've told the story here a few times of how I'd never traded anything but stocks and my son was about to demo trade forex with a friend. He saw price had made a huge run up and wanted to sell short because "now it has to come down". I looked at the chart and told him, "No, that's a bull flag, it's going to break out." His reaction was to immediately sell short. And it broke out a couple minutes later, a full measured move up in just minutes.
Technical trading is about the same across the board, from what I can tell.
What held me back so long from trading CL & ES was the larger stop loss I had to deal with. It was a mental block and nothing more.
If you read my posts this year on CL Redux and ES Journal after I posted my trade blotter I think I've offered some of the most detailed reasons for my trades. That pretty much sums up in a nutshell what I look for in setups, why I place my stop where I do, what price I target and why. My journal "NoDoji's Day Trading Log" details my journey from dangerous counter-trend trading to consistent profitability.
I'm currently putting together a PDF of all my rules and setups which I intend to post here when done, to give back to this trading community some of the priceless information many have given me.
No, I don't even WANT to remember them, but I see the number reflected in my windshield and it sticks in my brain. My brain is the Venus fly trap of numbers
Neke,
Stop trading cash, it's overly clear that something it's amiss. It's so obvious you should stop whatever you are doing immediately and make sure you secure whatever balance you have left, which should be plentiful to get back on your feet whenever you tight the loose ends.
You need to collect your thoughts and do some serious studying because at the present time your risk management is horrible.
Here's how a trader should think:
Risk management above all. If you can lose X amount of dollars and you are not ok with that, no matter how much the reward is or how high the probability of obtaining such reward, the mere fact that the possibility exits and you are not ok with it, should be enough for you to say, "such trade should never be taken".
I've been around, I got the scars, this is my wisdom to you, hope you take it.
Quote from No.Heat:
Neke,
Stop trading cash, it's overly clear that something it's amiss. It's so obvious you should stop whatever you are doing immediately and make sure you secure whatever balance you have left, which should be plentiful to get back on your feet whenever you tight the loose ends.
You need to collect your thoughts and do some serious studying because at the present time your risk management is horrible.
Here's how a trader should think:
Risk management above all. If you can lose X amount of dollars and you are not ok with that, no matter how much the reward is or how high the probability of obtaining such reward, the mere fact that the possibility exits and you are not ok with it, should be enough for you to say, "such trade should never be taken".
I've been around, I got the scars, this is my wisdom to you, hope you take it.
Quote from JJacksET4:
I don't really know what else to say - I guess Neke will do whatever he does and whatever happens will happen, and if he is OK with that, then no big deal.
JJacksET4
hey neke, so sorry about what has happened.
Clearly you need to stop as others have suggested.
Hope things work out and best of luck.
when did neke realize $100k to $600k? any thread?
I think a good trader is not defined by how much money he earned or what return he received.
this year I made some or got good return far better than the index, but I felt I am not a good trader. why? I may trade one tiny miny contract because of fear, then suddenly I may trade 10lots of full contracts and totally ignore the possible drawdowns, or I may suddenly decide to trade individual stocks I did not do any study with size varying from 50lot for a penny stock and 1000lot for a 150 buck stock, I sometimes use strict risk mamangement rules, sometimes just ignore them all and take it for granted" rules are nonsense, that hurts me".....subconciously those things will lead me into big trouble late on.
so from whatever view, I feel I am a noob or not a mature trader. a good trader first he must be mature. as for money, that is the byproduct.
I have a new friend, he earned almost 1m in dot com bubble (crazy buying dot.com bubble stocks like yahoo, amzn... using full margin, averaging up), everyone around him felt he was the king of the market. but late his 1m was quickly wiped out, and more, even his home equity loan. he never touched stock market again from then on. I just heard his story several weeks again in a church gathering since he asked me what I was doing, then he voluteered to me his story.
Quote from JJacksET4:
What's funny is all the people who said what a good trader he was when he went from $100someK to $600K still seem to think he's a good trader??
JJacksET4
Quote from NoDoji:
It's not about how I trade the ES; it's about how I trade anything. I've told the story here a few times of how I'd never traded anything but stocks and my son was about to demo trade forex with a friend. He saw price had made a huge run up and wanted to sell short because "now it has to come down". I looked at the chart and told him, "No, that's a bull flag, it's going to break out." His reaction was to immediately sell short. And it broke out a couple minutes later, a full measured move up in just minutes.
__________________
Lojze
Quote from lojze:
NoDoji, I wonder how you traded ES on friday. The market was so volatile, but still with clear direction ...
Did you trade more than normal, or ...?
Quote from trader198:
when did neke realize $100k to $600k? any thread?
Quote from No.Heat:
Neke,
Stop trading cash, it's overly clear that something it's amiss. It's so obvious you should stop whatever you are doing immediately and make sure you secure whatever balance you have left, which should be plentiful to get back on your feet whenever you tight the loose ends.
You need to collect your thoughts and do some serious studying because at the present time your risk management is horrible.
Here's how a trader should think:
Risk management above all. If you can lose X amount of dollars and you are not ok with that, no matter how much the reward is or how high the probability of obtaining such reward, the mere fact that the possibility exits and you are not ok with it, should be enough for you to say, "such trade should never be taken".
I've been around, I got the scars, this is my wisdom to you, hope you take it.
__________________
Trade Less
Quote from coolweb:
When you manage money, i think its better to not initiate new market positions or be in it every single day , thats market premium risk you are eating everyday, and one day it might bite your ass.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Hey Neke - I wish you well in your trading and hope this is a better week for you.
I am curious if you're paying the full 10$ +.75/contract for options at Ameritrade ?
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 17/50 ended 05/07/2010
Nasty week, down 34K (13.7%)...
Quote from Sanaz3:
Is there any way you could now change the title of this thread to" taking 410K to 410 by year end" or something along those lines? Seriously what made you pick such a bold title for your thread in the first place?
__________________
'Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,' Says the LORD.
Quote from DblArrow:
Go read through the thread and his previous threads this has been answered many times.
Quote from Sanaz3:
You mean there is no way he could change the thread's title any more or else he would have done it ALREADY?
__________________
'Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,' Says the LORD.
Quote from Sanaz3:
Seriously what made you pick such a bold title for your thread in the first place?
let him do what he does, it isn't easy if it was one us could have killed yourselves by taking such big losses. He has time to make it back and he will. Good luck Neke.
Weekly Update for week 18/50 ended 05/15/2010
Great week, up 33K (15.6%). Recovered almost all of last week's plunge.
Biggest gain was a regretful one. Hit BIDU puts with 127 contracts, about twice what was intended, when the stock did its final push up to 82 on Thur, immediately closed out 67 contracts at break-even to bring the size down, and closed the rest as the price came down to 79, netting 9K. That was way too soon, was just too scared of holding onto that dangerous momentum stock. Had I held till EOD, the gain should have been a whole lot more. All my decisions recently on whether to close at target or hold till EOD have been horrible: When I close early, I leave too much on the table; when I hold for EOD, I give back much of the gains.
code:
Opening Balance: 213,958 Net gain for the week 33,353 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 247,311 Number of Trades 30 Number of Profitable Trades 20 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 05/14/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 162,689 (Down 40%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 247,311 Number of Trades 636 Number of Profitable Trades 322 BIDUMAY22201080.0PUT 2010-05-13-09-48-41 2010-05-13-10-54-01 12700 33720 42560 8632 BIDU PUT PCLNMAY222010220.0PUT 2010-05-11-09-35-32 2010-05-11-10-45-42 2000 20600 27712 7065 PCLN PUT
Congrats, neke. I don't think I've ever commented on this thread, but I've always been a regular reader. I think you deserve two thumbs up just for sharing your results with grace during times good and bad.
As far as results... you don't owe an explanation to anyone but your investors (if you ever decide to take any), and perhaps your spouse.
attachment
Keep it up. I like the journal.
Quote from heech:
Congrats, neke. I don't think I've ever commented on this thread, but I've always been a regular reader. I think you deserve two thumbs up just for sharing your results with grace during times good and bad.
As far as results... you don't owe an explanation to anyone but your investors (if you ever decide to take any), and perhaps your spouse.
Quote from maximillion:
it isn't easy if it was one us could have killed yourselves by taking such big losses.
Way to go Neke. I'm happy for you.
And for the people who loves seeing Neke lose money - get a life. There isn't much happiness in other people's misery.
Neke, if you hit breakeven by end of year, you've done much much better than 95% of the people who trade (or on ET for that matter).
Quote from polpolik:
And for the people who loves seeing Neke lose money - get a life. There isn't much happiness in other people's misery.
Quote from polpolik:
Neke, if you hit breakeven by end of year, you've done much much better than 95% of the people who trade (or on ET for that matter).
__________________
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPs_j1EEplI&feature=feedwll&list=WL
Quote from SkepticTrader:
If he ever decides to take in any investors?????? Who are you kidding???? Only a fool would entrust their money to someone who has suffered over a 40% drawdown.
neke,your stubborn,it's a good trait ,but very expensive,hang in there,be a can not a cant,but take your losses with a little more pride,anyone can make money trading,the winners learn how to hang on to it,you will,but learn to cut your losses,you can always get back in at a better price,pride doesn't know a supp or res,only a must win...expensive lesson
lol to all the haters, drawdown just shows you have belief in your ,method; richard dennis had 70-80% drawdowns on his trades
Quote from TGpop:
...drawdown just shows you have belief in your ,method;
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Quote from bwolinsky:
Pardon me, does anyone know what his method is?
Quote from gkishot:
I believe it's double down.
__________________
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPs_j1EEplI&feature=feedwll&list=WL
Quote from gkishot:
I believe it's double down.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Weekly Update for week 19/50 ended 05/22/2010
Good week, up 17K (6.9%). Was playing fading over-extended moves in the SPY for the most part, and exiting when target bounces reached. Missed out on Fri rally. Set my trigger to load up on diverse stocks when the market comes to a certain level. Missed the target on SPY by a couple dimes and didn't feel like chasing the market as the rebound happened so fast and furious after the open. Should make some adjustments not to miss it so completely next time.
code:
Opening Balance: 247,311 Net gain for the week 17,478 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 264,789 Number of Trades 27 Number of Profitable Trades 16 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 05/22/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 145,211 (Down 35%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 264,789 Number of Trades 653 Number of Profitable Trades 338
nice job neke.
There are too many haters in this world and on this site. I guess thats what happens when you put your performance up for the world to see.
I can see that the OP (neke) has violated many esoteric principles in this thread... (note the #'s are arbitrary).
Esoteric principle #abc: The value of silence.
The moment you reveal anything to the world, including your intention to turn 400K into 4M is the moment you being to lose your power to attain such destiny.
Esoteric principle #bcd: Those who exalt themselves will be humbled, while those who humble themselves will be exalted by others.
Esoteric principle #cde: Preceding every rise, there is a decline. Preceding every decline, there is a rise. To go up, one must first go down. To go down, one must first go up.
Quote from gettinglucky:
Esoteric principle #abc: The value of silence.
can you please post your most recent value of your portfolios? i hope to see you success....it's a big motivation for every trader.
Weekly Update for week 20/50 ended 05/29/2010
Moderatley positive week, up 6.6K (2.5%).
Decent week, marked by small gainers and a high win rate (20 of 27), just marred on Thursday by a heavy short position that cost me 12K. Looking forward to next week.
code:
Opening Balance: 264,789 Net gain for the week 6,621 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 271,410 Number of Trades 27 Number of Profitable Trades 20 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 05/29/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 138,590 (Down 34%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 271,410 Number of Trades 680 Number of Profitable Trades 358
Is this from the fully automated system?
good goin
Weekly Update for week 21/50 ended 06/05/2010
Positive week, up 10.5K (3.9%).
Not a lot happening in individual stocks, except the oil-related issues which supplied most of the gains. The big regret was Friday, when I shorted a bunch of those oil-related issues, got beaten up having an unrealized loss of 8K at one point (about 10:20am), got out relieved as the stock retraced for break-even for the day by 11:05am. Missed the sell-off in the market and in those stocks afterwards. Easily left 20K on the table.
code:
Opening Balance: 271,410 Net gain for the week 10,504 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 281,914 Number of Trades 26 Number of Profitable Trades 14 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 06/05/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 128,086 (Down 31%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 281,914 Number of Trades 706 Number of Profitable Trades 372
Please explain to me FIRST: why a great trader like you lost 31% at the first place? How is it possible? I am certain you will make it back but I was a little surprised you would lose more than 10% at the first place. Keep up the good work like this week, you might get to millions soon. I believe so. Thank for posting and good luck.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 21/50 ended 06/05/2010
Positive week, up 10.5K (3.9%).
Not a lot happening in individual stocks, except the oil-related issues which supplied most of the gains. The big regret was Friday, when I shorted a bunch of those oil-related issues, got beaten up having an unrealized loss of 8K at one point (about 10:20am), got out relieved as the stock retraced for break-even for the day by 11:05am. Missed the sell-off in the market and in those stocks afterwards. Easily left 20K on the table.
code:
Opening Balance: 271,410 Net gain for the week 10,504 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 281,914 Number of Trades 26 Number of Profitable Trades 14 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 06/05/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 128,086 (Down 31%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 281,914 Number of Trades 706 Number of Profitable Trades 372
Quote from kds:
Please explain to me FIRST: why a great trader like you lost 31% at the first place? How is it possible? I am certain you will make it back but I was a little surprised you would lose more than 10% at the first place. Keep up the good work like this week, you might get to millions soon. I believe so. Thank for posting and good luck.
__________________
'Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,' Says the LORD.
he's aiming for a 1000% percent return, you think that can be done with <10% drawdown?!?!
right good week neke
Weekly Update for week 22/50 ended 06/12/2010
Bitter week, down 39K (14%). Another giant step backward.
Was having a flat week till Thurs afternoon. Thought I needed to show something for a week's effort and decided to take heavy size on SPY PUT as well as short BP when it seemed like the rally was fading away, hoping to reap some gains from small downside move. Grossly wrong, as both took off immediately afterwards. Closed BP short for a loss of 18K, and SPY puts for a loss of 12K. Stupid decision trying to pick pennies expecting to magnify it with leverage, while forgetting the downside. That set me up for another psychologically losing day on Fri as I threw away another 10K. Still fighting the battle of how to prevent complacence after a number of positive weeks.
Thoroughly exhausted. I need a shower.
code:
Opening Balance: 281,914 Net loss for the week 39,035 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 242,879 Number of Trades 33 Number of Profitable Trades 16 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 06/12/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 167,121 (Down 41%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 242,879 Number of Trades 739 Number of Profitable Trades 388 SPYJUN192010109.0PUT 2010-06-10-14-08-32 2010-06-10-15-21-47 20000 53000 41000 -12275 SPY PUT BP 2010-06-10-14-06-23 2010-06-10-15-21-48 18000 588368 571200 -17206 SHORT
They tried to sell it off like every other rally, but the key was that there was substance behind the rally, and oversold energy sector from the previous day, people actually wanted some of those firms in their portfolio.
In other words, it wasn`t going to sell off, they tried late in the day, and boom you had an explosive bar on the chart that broke the late day sell-off pattern, and then everybody knew that they were going to bust the shorts with putting in a higher high towards the close.
why do you take discretionary trades? I dare to judge that you do not have the mental composure to make a good discretionary trader. Your risk and money management sucks extremely big time. You should SERIOUS consider stopping this, you start to act like a gambler and addict. Go back and work on your automated trading strategies. Having worked for more than a decade in the business let me tell you I never came across someone who had no respect for risk and over-leveraged and made a later turnaround into a great risk manager. This is not something you learn also but something that is inside of all of us, either you got it or you dont. You dont, I risk to say. If you must take discretionary trades keep a very small portion of your main account to gamble and play around but dont risk your main account on a losing proposition.
I think you could do some serious damage (not your own account but others in the marketplace) by improving on your automated trading and concentrating on this.
My 2 cents and I am pretty sure you wont listen to me, but you may remember my post later on, because I am pretty sure if you continue to go down this road that you end up with a busted account. Good luck!!!
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 22/50 ended 06/12/2010
Bitter week, down 39K (14%). Another giant step backward.
Was having a flat week till Thurs afternoon. Thought I needed to show something for a week's effort and decided to take heavy size on SPY PUT as well as short BP when it seemed like the rally was fading away, hoping to reap some gains from small downside move. Grossly wrong, as both took off immediately afterwards. Closed BP short for a loss of 18K, and SPY puts for a loss of 12K. Stupid decision trying to pick pennies expecting to magnify it with leverage, while forgetting the downside. That set me up for another psychologically losing day on Fri as I threw away another 10K. Still fighting the battle of how to prevent complacence after a number of positive weeks.
Thoroughly exhausted. I need a shower.
code:
Opening Balance: 281,914 Net loss for the week 39,035 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 242,879 Number of Trades 33 Number of Profitable Trades 16 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 06/12/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 167,121 (Down 41%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 242,879 Number of Trades 739 Number of Profitable Trades 388 SPYJUN192010109.0PUT 2010-06-10-14-08-32 2010-06-10-15-21-47 20000 53000 41000 -12275 SPY PUT BP 2010-06-10-14-06-23 2010-06-10-15-21-48 18000 588368 571200 -17206 SHORT
Quote from asiaprop:
why do you take discretionary trades?
sounds like a good idea, I have the same feeling ...
Just curious...
Hello Neke,
First time posting here.... have been skimming through your post history this year and was just wondering--
Do you utilize any technical analysis indicators at all prior to your decision to execute a particular trade?
It seems that from the majority of posts I skimmed through with your weekly updates, that a "gut feel" approach was utilized more often than not... (I could be wrong however... please correct if I am)
I'm wondering in the case of the ugly BIDU trade earlier in the year if you have gone and backtested some common TA pattern indicators to see if your decision to go short would've been validated... or the opposite was the case.
There has been a lot of talk throughout this thread about the proper use of risk management---but it seems it is along the lines of "don't average down"... "don't risk such a high % of capital to one trade"... "set tigher stop loss and/or max loss/trade", etc... but a huge part of risk management that is often overlooked is increasing your probabilities of being in the right trade in the first place-- distinguished specifically by TA... and increasing those probabilities even further with multiple confirmation TA techniques...
Thoughts? Anyone?
Quote from neke:
Stupid decision trying to pick pennies expecting to magnify it with leverage, while forgetting the downside.
neke, do you feel you have to trade,the title of thread suggests this,you can sit back and take fewer trades with better setups,bigger profits,less losses,and when your suspicions about the markets or stocks upcoming move is confirmed ,you can add with trailing stops..this is the first week of summer like volume and lack of daily rotation from openng highs and lows,we may be in for another 6 out of the next 12 weeks of same action,if you do sitback and wait for better setups, it will give you time to reflect on your trading and the way the market is trading and give you a chance to get in synch
Neke, take it from me. My trading hasnt been great this year..in fact its been below my expectations, so what did I do? I stopped trading and just sat on the positions I have.
Currently holding FCX, and C. No point in digging a deeper ditch, I might as well hold on to something I think will do well long term, and sit on my hands.
Find something you like, and hold on, it might help you climb out of your hole, at least partially.
- kon
I just took a look at classifying the trades and summarizing for automated and discretionary trades. I looked at the period from 2/20/2010 (after the initial drop in my account to 230K) to today (6/12/2010) with a balance of about 243K. Over that period of three-and-half months, the number of automated trades is 294 resulting in a gain of 73K, while the number of discretionary trades is 159 resulting in a loss of 60K. So while not spectacular (about +31% return) the automated trades have definitely been Ok. Yes I have considered doing nothing but auto-trading, but afterwards I have always felt I would be leaving an awful lot of opportunities if I gave up on discretionary trading - no amount of automation can discover and leverage on those opportunities. Bolstering this conviction is the realisation that I have made BIG money in years past using mostly my discretion (>150% 2007, > 450% 2008, > 50% 2009) so it is going to be a tough decision. On the plus side, I would have more time for research on improving my automated strategies, and time for regular work.
One big handicap I have with my discretionary trades is that when the opportunities are not there, instead of staying away, I am trying hard to create them, and using excessive leverage, and that has been most damaging. This year there hasn't been that many great opportunities (yes some in May, but I missed a lot of them anyway). So yes, I am still considering whether to throw in the towel for good on discretionary trades.
Re: Just curious...
Quote from Passion4Mkt:
I'm wondering in the case of the ugly BIDU trade earlier in the year if you have gone and backtested some common TA pattern indicators to see if your decision to go short would've been validated... or the opposite was the case.
Quote from neke:
Over that period of three-and-half months, the number of automated trades is 294 resulting in a gain of 73K, while the number of discretionary trades is 159 resulting in a loss of 60K.
Quote from NoDoji:
The right decision is in front of you.
you dumbfounded me with your comments of having 30% in 3 and a half months is not spectacular. In my book that"s an 145% return on an annual basis ... 99% of the traders on ET would commit a murder for anything likewise. You would have beaten yourself almost every year with that kind of return even when your discretionary trading was at your best. More so you would probably sleep better
The conclusion seems obvious to me: go with automation and stop the discretionary trading. Perfection creates ulcers those kind of results are allready more than outstanding.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 22/50 ended 06/12/2010
Bitter week, down 39K (14%). Another giant step backward.
Was having a flat week till Thurs afternoon. Thought I needed to show something for a week's effort and decided to take heavy size on SPY PUT as well as short BP when it seemed like the rally was fading away, hoping to reap some gains from small downside move. Grossly wrong, as both took off immediately afterwards. Closed BP short for a loss of 18K, and SPY puts for a loss of 12K. Stupid decision trying to pick pennies expecting to magnify it with leverage, while forgetting the downside. That set me up for another psychologically losing day on Fri as I threw away another 10K. Still fighting the battle of how to prevent complacence after a number of positive weeks.
Thoroughly exhausted. I need a shower.
code:
Opening Balance: 281,914 Net loss for the week 39,035 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 242,879 Number of Trades 33 Number of Profitable Trades 16 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 06/12/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 167,121 (Down 41%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 242,879 Number of Trades 739 Number of Profitable Trades 388 SPYJUN192010109.0PUT 2010-06-10-14-08-32 2010-06-10-15-21-47 20000 53000 41000 -12275 SPY PUT BP 2010-06-10-14-06-23 2010-06-10-15-21-48 18000 588368 571200 -17206 SHORT
good luck!!
Neke, why didn't it work?
Was it just a matter of right or wrong? Or was it something related to the underlying mechanics of the market that made losing this type of leveraged trade much more easier?
What could we learn from this lesson?
PA
Quote from arbs-r-us:
Please. Rename this thread. "Taking 410k to zero by year end."
Quote from Pension_Admin:
Neke, why didn't it work?
Was it just a matter of right or wrong? Or was it something related to the underlying mechanics of the market that made losing this type of leveraged trade much more easier?
What could we learn from this lesson?
PA
Neke, My suggestion would be for you to open a $10K for discretionary trading and your main account on auto-trading, that way you still satisfy you urge for discretionary trading on a smaller account.
Quote from neke:
Bitter week, down 39K (14%).
Thoroughly exhausted. I need a shower.
Quote from asiaprop:
My 2 cents and I am pretty sure you wont listen to me, but you may remember my post later on, because I am pretty sure if you continue to go down this road that you end up with a busted account. Good luck!!!
are you stalking me? You seem to comment on each and every post I make, no matter where. While I am flattered I dont know how much value it adds...;-)
peace
Quote from ~~~:
He's not going to listen to anyone of us.
Why shld he? we're not his boss
just like asking teenagers don't spend too much time on their iphones/ipads..hmmm ... they can't help it cos they love their iphones/ipads more than their parents (just joking!)
Quote from asiaprop:
are you stalking me? You seem to comment on each and every post I make, no matter where. While I am flattered I dont know how much value it adds...;-)
peace
eg: you ,big hog, ammo, lescor, Bolimomo.
Quote from NoDoji:
The right decision is in front of you.
Weekly Update for week 23/50 ended 06/19/2010
Better week, up 26K (10.8%). Delighted to have made some headway into last week's loss recovery.
The better trades have been buying SPY call options on pull-backs. No big loss on my completely discretionary trades. Interestingly my automated trades delivered a very poor result of 11K loss. Break-down of trades into auto and discretionary is given below. Trades are classified as automated if the original discovery and entry of the trade was by the system. Sometimes I do interfere with the system by closing the trades discretionarily (not waiting for the system to close it) or adding to existing position. That happened to one of the trades this week, where I added to a losing auto trade, and had a net loss of 9.4K; that made the loss from automated trades (would still have been a loss anyway) much worse.
code:
Opening Balance: 242,879 Net gain for the week 26,257 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 269,136 Number of Trades 28 Number of Profitable Trades 14 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 06/19/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 140,864(Down 34%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 269,136 Number of Trades 767 Number of Profitable Trades 402 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 16 -11,228.10 2,317.10 -9,401.50 DISCR 12 37,212.10 9,725.30 -1,297.60 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETAIONARY TRADES SPYJUN192010110.0CALL 2010-06-18-09-59-28 2010-06-18-10-31-25 20000 30000 40000 9725 SPY CALL SPYJUN192010109.0CALL 2010-06-16-09-33-54 2010-06-16-11-26-10 20000 52295 61000 8416 SPY CALL
nice!
Must be a weird feeling sitting in a meeting at the office and just having won or lost a months pay in the last 15minutes.
Looking really bad, neke,
My niece put me in charge of her IRA back in Nov '09. It was worth $7,200 back then. The market has been really tough on EWZ (Brazil) this year. Currently, her account value is $7,150. I've been successful at limiting its downside by selling & repurchasing EWZ at a lower price.
Compared to you, I'm looking really good.
obviously you are an investor, not a trader.
my suggestion is: buy and hold if no margin involved, do not report your P/L so regualarly.
just hold on, buy something undevalued, hold on tight. set an alert in your account, when it reaches $1m, pages you, then writes a blotter here, we will celebrate your gain.
the key to investor's success is patience, no more than that.
Quote from neke:
[/code][/font]
Quote from trader198:
obviously you are an investor, not a trader.
my suggestion is: buy and hold
Quote from Trader KGB:
Where did you ever get the idea he's an investor?
And where does everyone get the idea that this journal is an open invitation for unsolicited advice for neke? (most of which is ridiculous, and/or indicative of the failing 90%)
Quote from Trader KGB:
Where did you ever get the idea he's an investor?
And where does everyone get the idea that this journal is an open invitation for unsolicited advice for neke? (most of which is ridiculous, and/or indicative of the failing 90%)
Quote from Trader KGB:
Where did you ever get the idea he's an investor?
And where does everyone get the idea that this journal is an open invitation for unsolicited advice for neke? (most of which is ridiculous, and/or indicative of the failing 90%)
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Quote from cstfx:
The fact that he posts here on ET leaves him open for such "advice" but their unsolicited advice is really nothing more than the 95%'ers trying to prove that they know more than the next guy. If he didn't want the input, as it were, he should have started a blog and limited people's ability to share their own hard learned lessons. Kinda laughable sometimes reading their "expert" advice when you have the very same guys who admittedly have been trading for only a few months or trading demos telling neke how he should be trading the 400k account he built from a minimal starting balance.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
who cares why he made this journal? And who cares how he chooses to trade his money? If you do, why? This is just fun entertainment on the side. All these naysayers know they are losing too. They just like to think to themselves, "Man, if I had a 400k account, I wouldn't have to overleverage my account anymore and I'd become a successful trader. This guy must be an idiot." Every trader that first starts thinks this same way about others. Neke nor anyone else cares what any of you write because the advice most of you give him is complete BS. If you had actually followed his journals the last few years, you would have seen he is usually a very successful trader with some hiccups in the road, but we all have them. What he decides to do in the future is irrevelant to your life, so just let it be. Please, for the sake of mankind, let your halfcent advice go.
[QUOTE]Quote from neke:
[B]Weekly Update for week 23/50 ended 06/19/2010
Good going Neke!
Quote from Petsamo:
Looking really bad, neke,
My niece put me in charge of her IRA back in Nov '09. It was worth $7,200 back then. The market has been really tough on EWZ (Brazil) this year. Currently, her account value is $7,150. I've been successful at limiting its downside by selling & repurchasing EWZ at a lower price.
Compared to you, I'm looking really good.
Quote from bigb:
who cares why he made this journal? And who cares how he chooses to trade his money? If you do, why? This is just fun entertainment on the side. All these naysayers know they are losing too. They just like to think to themselves, "Man, if I had a 400k account, I wouldn't have to overleverage my account anymore and I'd become a successful trader. This guy must be an idiot." Every trader that first starts thinks this same way about others. Neke nor anyone else cares what any of you write because the advice most of you give him is complete BS. If you had actually followed his journals the last few years, you would have seen he is usually a very successful trader with some hiccups in the road, but we all have them. What he decides to do in the future is irrevelant to your life, so just let it be. Please, for the sake of mankind, let your halfcent advice go.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Quote from neke:
Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 06/19/2010
Opening Balance: 410,000
Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 140,864(Down 34%)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance 269,136
Number of Trades 767
Number of Profitable Trades 402
[/code][/font]
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Quote from bwolinsky:
402/767=52.41% win percentage....a little bit higher than vegas card counting.
Too many trades, really. Overtrading half way through the year.
post trades
Do you guys post your trades here? It would be good for others if they want to follow you or simulate your performance.. just a thought.. it could be a great knowledge base for everyone if we start posting trades.
cheers,
Sam
There are different threads for that already. Just look at the CL and the ES thread. No way you could put all these expert ()trade calls in one thread in a coherent manner.
Quote from JamesL:
There are different threads for that already. Just look at the CL and the ES thread. No way you could put all these expert (
Quote from novel20:
Yeah, should only trade when you are going to win.
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Quote from saminny:
Or may be each trader here can create his own thread named after his id and include his trades. entry, exit and stop loss and relevant analysis/charts. Just a thought
honesty
Neke-
Thanks for the information. Glad you are honest on your gains/losses, unlike many in this business. Keep posting. Thanks!
__________________
Ed Baroncini
Re: honesty
I second that. While I disagree with his approach and risk management skills I appreciate he is (still) honest to himself and his journal. I dont think he cares much of what others have to say, and why does he have to. Its a game of golf. There are tournaments and competitions with others, however, the real competition is inside of our head, whether we are able to learn from mistakes and really figure out how to find the needed patience, concentration, and willpower to stick to rules aside the ability to adapt to the environment.
Most here on ET are complete morons and idiots and honesty definitely sticks out.
Quote from ebaronjr:
Neke-
Thanks for the information. Glad you are honest on your gains/losses, unlike many in this business. Keep posting. Thanks!
Weekly Update for week 24/50 ended 06/26/2010
Bad week, down 19K.Bad week for buying SPY option on the dip. That cost quite a lot this week. The worst trade was shorting BVF on Tue with leverage. That cost 14.7K, the worst loss for the week.
Going thru my discretionary trades for the last one year. I want to be able to lay down some basic quantitative conditions that have to be met for a discretionary trade to be allowed. I think I have frequently hung myself given too much freedom in how I choose and enter discretionary trades. Automated trading was lacklustre this week.
code:
Opening Balance: 269,136 Net loss for the week 18,415 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 250,721 Number of Trades 28 Number of Profitable Trades 16 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 06/26/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 159,279 (Down 39%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 250,721 Number of Trades 795 Number of Profitable Trades 418 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 18 774.30 4,983.20 -2,761.70 DISCR 10 -19,196.30 11,123.20 -14,734.20
Neke-
In reference to BVF, I think it may be a good idea to study up a bit on Bollinger Bands because a signal wasn't given yet to open the short.
Quote from Topper:
Neke-
In reference to BVF, I think it may be a good idea to study up a bit on Bollinger Bands because a signal wasn't given yet to open the short.
Quote from Topper:
Neke-
In reference to BVF, I think it may be a good idea to study up a bit on Bollinger Bands because a signal wasn't given yet to open the short.
__________________
'Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,' Says the LORD.
trading still on a gut feel?
I still strongly feel that probability of success will be much greater if you set up confirmatory technical analysis before deciding to play the dips...
Resistance/support patterns, fibs, etc....
Playing from the gut does NOT work.... bottom line...
You are destined to have big winners and big losers over and over...
Tight stops if the technicals aren't confirmed by the move will limit the losses
A tip for fading strong moves is to wait a day or two. The day of the news rarely produces good fading opportunities, but the day or two after usually has a decent pullback, profit-taking on moves up and the dead cat bounce on moves down.
dbl arrow - i'm not debating that there isn't more than one way to skin a cat but without the tight stop and the high probability entry, a trader is playing with fire. it is in my opinion that in relation to the bb's, BVL hasn't shown weakness and/or confirmation of weakness.
do you have a different view?
Quote from Topper:
dbl arrow - i'm not debating that there isn't more than one way to skin a cat but without the tight stop and the high probability entry, a trader is playing with fire. it is in my opinion that in relation to the bb's, BVL hasn't shown weakness and/or confirmation of weakness.
do you have a different view?
__________________
'Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,' Says the LORD.
Quote from DblArrow:
With your first sentence, I have no different view.
With your second sentence, yes I do have a different view - as to the stock, no opinion, as I do not trade stocks - as to the BB's, I bet neke is not trading based on them so to say he needs to look at them before this trade, is in my opinion idiotic. To imply that because you use them and watch them and neke did not therefore was incorrect in his entry negates the first part of your first sentence above.
Quote from Topper:
I see where you're coming from as I don't put a lot of time into explaining my thoughts thoroughly when I post. Basically what I was 'thinking' was that bollinger bands are considered to be a basic 101 t/a tool and my point was that using a basic foundation to determine entries/exits would be better than using a method that creates such a drastic drawdown. But, for each his own.
However, if interested, I'd be more than happy to show how I would use bb's for that trade once the opportunity presents itself.
__________________
'Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,' Says the LORD.
Skin the damn cat
It appears that too many traders get caught up in the process of trading and quickly lose sight of the trading results. Anyone who tells you that trading is about anything other than the bottom line are merely trying to sell you the process. As we all know...there are many ways to skin a cat, there are many roads to the same destination, and there are numerous ways to extract profits from the markets. However when you place anything above extracting profits you are creating a very expensive hobby for yourself. So regardless if you use technical analysis, fundamental analysis, psychic powers, bollinger bands, fibs, & etc.; the profit and loss statement is the ultimate judge of the effectiveness of your chosen process. It seems very basic but I've seen time after time numerous traders trade for ego, glory, excitement, etc with profits not even being in the top 5 reasons why they even trade. It appears that young Neke would fit into that category as well. There are hundreds of ways to skin a cat...just make sure to choose a method that actually skins the damn cat.
__________________
Just doing it and doing it well.
Re: Skin the damn cat
Quote from JustDoingIt:
It appears that too many traders get caught up in the process of trading and quickly lose sight of the trading results. Anyone who tells you that trading is about anything other than the bottom line are merely trying to sell you the process. As we all know...there are many ways to skin a cat, there are many roads to the same destination, and there are numerous ways to extract profits from the markets. However when you place anything above extracting profits you are creating a very expensive hobby for yourself. So regardless if you use technical analysis, fundamental analysis, psychic powers, bollinger bands, fibs, & etc.; the profit and loss statement is the ultimate judge of the effectiveness of your chosen process. It seems very basic but I've seen time after time numerous traders trade for ego, glory, excitement, etc with profits not even being in the top 5 reasons why they even trade. It appears that young Neke would fit into that category as well. There are hundreds of ways to skin a cat...just make sure to choose a method that actually skins the damn cat.
I'm afraid Neke its time for you to hang it up. You do realize that you need a 50%+ gain from here on out to break even don't you?
Any hedge fund that gets down to those levels usually closes shop. Do yourself a favor man, recognize that you are in this because of a bad gambling habit. that you can't get away from. Whatever system you are using, is not working.
You are better off taking what you have left and go out enjoying life, get a job. Blowing $400K will be devastating to your mental well being. Trying to impress people has backfired on you - never trade to impress others. You put yourself out there and seriously, you shouldn't have - there was no need. You goals are ridiculous as well to turn 900% profit in a year.
I want you to win but win in life my friend. Short term trading is not something that can be sustained over time. You have to know when to get out when you are ahead as well as when you are underwater. You've already broken your business plan so I am puzzled why you continue to trade.
Quote from FutsTrader111:
I'm afraid Neke its time for you to hang it up. You do realize that you need a 50%+ gain from here on out to break even don't you?
Any hedge fund that gets down to those levels usually closes shop. Do yourself a favor man, recognize that you are in this because of a bad gambling habit. that you can't get away from. Whatever system you are using, is not working.
You are better off taking what you have left and go out enjoying life, get a job. Blowing $400K will be devastating to your mental well being. Trying to impress people has backfired on you - never trade to impress others. You put yourself out there and seriously, you shouldn't have - there was no need. You goals are ridiculous as well to turn 900% profit in a year.
I want you to win but win in life my friend. Short term trading is not something that can be sustained over time. You have to know when to get out when you are ahead as well as when you are underwater. You've already broken your business plan so I am puzzled why you continue to trade.
unless you are a turbo scalper or arbitrageur you going to have mutli month draw downs in this business and if you risk 2 or more percent of your account on each trade you are going to have draw downs in the region of 50%.
on the other side recovery time can be quick too, sometimes you can make 100% in a couple of months when the market matches your style and you are betting 2%+ per trade.
Weekly Update for week 25/50 ended 07/03/2010
Moderately positive week, up 6K.
Nothing significant, except decent opportunities I missed entries by a dime. My automated methods continue to disappoint, which is a bit irritating.
code:
Opening Balance: 250,721 Net gain for the week 6,444 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 257,165 Number of Trades 26 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 07/03/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 152,835 (Down 37%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 257,165 Number of Trades 821 Number of Profitable Trades 429 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 14 -6,954.10 1,881.80 -1,627.60 DISCR 12 13,503.90 7,261.90 -4,772.20
neke,
would be great if you could post the biggest gainer/loser trades.
At this mid-point stage for the year, it is worth taking a look at the performance both for the short-term, and over a longer period. This year, I set out to minimise risk by lowering position sizes, and accelerating based on growth in account buffer. Needless to say that has not happened, since I have been underwater since week one of this year. On the other hand I have not cured the tendency to average in. The result has been having outsized position sizes when I am losing. Going forward, I am working on taking on bigger sizes upfront, leaving no room for averaging down. With that at least my profitable trades would also be on big size. It is a sorry sight to see biggest loser this year is -102K (BIDU option of Jan), while my biggest gainer is only 11K on the discretionary trades.
Just wanting to see how I stand on the longer term perspective. Below are charts of cummulative P/L. Chart (A) is normal chart for this year's thread showing adjusted balance. Chart (B) is the cummulative P/L since start of trading in Dec 1999 (not 2000, just P/L, not balance). The portion shown is from Nov 2004 when I bottomed with a cumulative loss of -54K and account balance of 5K till date. Chart (C) is the cummulative from start of first thread (Feb 2007), with starting balance of 76K and P/L initialized at 0. Charts B and C cover every trading day, including the few weeks each year between the end of the prior thread to the start of the new one, and is based on daily P/L (not end-of-week data).
Although the current drawdown is prolonged, I can take solace in the fact the cumulative P/L graph isnt so bad. Yes I know the balance on the account is now reduced (after the cumulative withdrawals) and would take quite some time to go to a new high. As for suggestions that I permanently cease trading based on a 50% draw-down, I think that would have taken place already several times in my trading life (the first one would have been 2 weeks from start of trading!).
you turned 5k starting balance in 2004 to a gain of 800,000 thats pretty fking impressive.. thats a return of 16000% over 6 years. That is better than any strategy I have come across over this time period. And the graph looks fantastic with minor setbacks, no major drawdowns and a very good up trend. Congratulations my friend!!
Also forgot to mention neke... dont take too much advise from folks here... whatever you are doing is working really good.. as i said if anyone can show me a better performance, i would be really freaking surprised
Quote from neke:
On the other hand I have not cured the tendency to average in. The result has been having outsized position sizes when I am losing. Going forward, I am working on taking on bigger sizes upfront, leaving no room for averaging down. With that at least my profitable trades would also be on big size.
Quote from NoDoji:
Neke, when you started the year you were looking at doing more swing trades. I thought that was a really good idea, allowing you to average in (if necessary) over time based on an expected RTM move. I recommended SHLD options as a good swing trade idea in January and it went from a high of $106 the next trading day straight down to the $88's over the following 2 1/2 weeks. I'm wondering why you haven't done any swing trades, considering buying options defines your absolute risk.
I'm glad to see you posted your cumulative results because it's annoying to see all the posters on your thread who are certain that you are on the road to ruin when in fact you have done very well when the entire picture is in view.
We started out over 20 years ago with nothing but $5K to put down on a house and eventually leveraged the growing equity in the house to finance a business, purchase an office building, and do some buy and hold investing in high dividend stocks.
Our overall equity curve from, say, 2007 with stocks and real estate hitting downright silly levels, through the present, would look somewhat dismal, but it's a far different picture when viewing our equity curve from our initial investment of $5K through the present.
Weekly Update for week 26/50 ended 07/10/2010
Bad week, down 11K (4%).
Was away on a course for much of the week, and didn't do much discretionary trade. The big discretionary losers were from going long the market on Tues with options. Promptly paid the price as the rally sold off. Nothing working on the automated front either.
code:
Opening Balance: 257,165 Net loss for the week 11,065 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 246,100 Number of Trades 16 Number of Profitable Trades 5 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 07/10/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 163,900(Down 40%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 246,100 Number of Trades 837 Number of Profitable Trades 434 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 12 -3,834.50 3,613.70 -3,004.90 DISCR 4 -7,441.30 3,182.80 -6,054.50
insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Refine or stop.
__________________
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Quote from coolweb:
insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Refine or stop.
what's Neke's high water mark? Is it $800k?
Hey coolweb at least neke is putting his numbers out there. What are your numbers? having visited your thread and watched you turn every trade into a 5c scratch, I'm guessing your bleeding slowly 5c at a time.
Quote from billyjoerob:
what's Neke's high water mark? Is it $800k?
Weekly Update for week 27/50 ended 07/17/2010
Moderately positive week, up 3K (1%).
Mostly buying SPY call options on the dip through the week, until Friday, when a similar attempt mopped up a good chunk of the gains for the week (8.8K loss). The automated front is still not quite delivering yet.
code:
Opening Balance: 246,100 Net gain for the week 2,950 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 249,050 Number of Trades 28 Number of Profitable Trades 20 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 07/17/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 160,950(Down 39%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 249,050 Number of Trades 865 Number of Profitable Trades 454 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 16 -1,473.90 2,031.20 -3,110.00 DISCR 12 4,543.70 5,140.80 -8,844.20
9% gain in 6 days and u still bought spy call option on friday?
if you really want to make some big money buy aapl 300 put option for 2011.
aapl is going to touch 199 (flash crash low) sooner or later plus possible h&s pattern on aapl and sndk.
__________________
MY POINT
Quote from gobar:
9% gain in 6 days and u still bought spy call option on friday?
if you really want to make some big money buy aapl 300 put option for 2011.
aapl is going to touch 199 (flash crash low) sooner or later plus possible h&s pattern on aapl and sndk.
Quote from Jackie Treehorn:
word, i have a large short aapl position.
__________________
MY POINT
Quote from gobar:
broke the neckline.
tomorrow inside day or goes down another $10 ?/?
Quote from Jackie Treehorn:
AApl always pops on earnings regardless, so i will shave some off today, then pick a re entry tomorrow night/Wednesday....
Quote from trackstar:
Be wary of anyone that uses the words "always" and "regardless" to talk about a trading event. They havent been around very long.
Quote from trackstar:
Be wary of anyone that uses the words "always" and "regardless" to talk about a trading event. They havent been around very long.
Weekly Update for week 28/50 ended 07/24/2010
Ugly week, down 21K (8.3%).
A collection of bad losses accounted for the mess. Nothing outsized by itself, and I did not have much rule violation to report, no averaging down, yet I got clobbered in both discretionary and automated trading. Playing earnings news really hurt me bad. After the negative reaction to strong Intel results, you would think the market would take down any major cap that disappointed. Not so for GS and AMZN, and that cost me quite a lot. For AMZN shorted 2000 shares after earnings @ 102.50 on what looked like terrible earnings for a high multiple stock (thought this was the short of the month). Turned out to be an enormous short trap. Covered Fri pre-market @ 106.20 (Glad I did considering how the stock ran up to 119!)losing 7K.
With a fourth straight week of losses in my automated trades, I am forced to size down and consider whether this is a normal draw-down or a break-down of strategies.
code:
Opening Balance: 249,050 Net loss for the week 20,728 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 228,322 Number of Trades 41 Number of Profitable Trades 19 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 07/24/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 181,678 (Down 44%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 228,322 Number of Trades 906 Number of Profitable Trades 473 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 22 -7,516.70 3,058.30 -3,904.90 DISCR 19 -13,220.30 7,149.30 -6,861.50
sometimes the best trades are the ones you dont make. Market is not cooperating, and even the best are getting hammered. Down 120 one day, up 260 another is not a normal market. good luck Neke!
__________________
Ed Baroncini
Quote from ebaronjr:
sometimes the best trades are the ones you dont make. Market is not cooperating, and even the best are getting hammered. Down 120 one day, up 260 another is not a normal market. good luck Neke!
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Neke your down almost 50 percent this year. You are drastically underperforming the market. Maybe you should read when superstar traders meet kryptonite. Some great traders those who made millions have gone bust. I really hope you form a contingency plan just in case things don't make a turn around. Im pulling for you hope you can end the year on a high note.
Quote from Bolimomo:
HWM was where he started the year with $410K. Lost $100K in second week, one day, from BIDU option.
Quote from darwin666:
yes... that was a Maserati car. equivalent which vanished..
Quote from darwin666:
yes... that was a Maserati car. equivalent which vanished.. same week. I also lost 4K in BIDU.. .it is a portfolio killer.. I have slowly clawed back.. but we are not here to discuss my story.. we are here to offer positive analysis for neke who bares it all.. the trading process in getting refined. one day we will see the light .
as some experienced traders. say " you just don't get it , do you?"
we aspire to cross into the realms of the succesful retail traders( only 1% of the pool). ( common known fact.. trading is a loosing proposition. 99% of retail traders loose in the long run!)
Quote from neke:
After the negative reaction to strong Intel results, you would think the market would take down any major cap that disappointed. Not so for GS and AMZN, and that cost me quite a lot.
Neke I don't post much, but I've followed you since you started making goals for yourself and sharing them.
Trading is a tough business and luckily you have another source of income. It is a very good thing you've kept your place of employment since that in itself helps in excelling as a trader. Full time trading is a lifestyle that requires you sell your soul to try and make it, and can easily be taken away at any moment, regardless of how long it took to build.
My suggestion would be to leave this current market environment alone, until you see things starting to work for you again. You can always creep back in and swing for the fences again. You'll get your type of fertile market environment prime for your strategies once again.
AMZN caught me off guard. I was short, but had no idea they had earnigns out the next day, so I rushed to buy calls as a hedge in case of an ugly gap up. The stock gaped down 7 points the next day and I closed out the calls with a 1k loss and some change. No problem i thought im still short a few hundred shares and it will go lower. But just it case I moved my position to b/e, and sure enough it rallied HARD and I got stopped out.
Just avoid earnings. The excitement is not worth the risk
Interesting conclusion to draw from Neke's travails. Many people make similar recommendations after taking a hit or seeing others take a hit. Imho, the correct conclusion isn't to 'avoid' earnings (or ES or CL or pre-mkt or other areas where traders frequently struggle...) but rather avoid anything in which you do not have a demonstrated edge. If you have an edge, then you are also likely to know how often the specific play is successful (& therefore - how often it will fail). Unless your edge is proven at 100% success (very unlikely), you understand that some % of the time, an unprofitable play is expected. If you do not have a demonstrated edge, you're simply gambling & don't even know how bad the odds....
Quote from konviction:
Just avoid earnings. The excitement is not worth the risk
Quote from konviction:
AMZN caught me off guard. I was short, but had no idea they had earnigns out the next day, so I rushed to buy calls as a hedge in case of an ugly gap up. The stock gaped down 7 points the next day and I closed out the calls with a 1k loss and some change. No problem i thought im still short a few hundred shares and it will go lower. But just it case I moved my position to b/e, and sure enough it rallied HARD and I got stopped out.
Just avoid earnings. The excitement is not worth the risk
Is neke on holiday this week?
Quote from RL8093:
Interesting conclusion to draw from Neke's travails. Many people make similar recommendations after taking a hit or seeing others take a hit. Imho, the correct conclusion isn't to 'avoid' earnings (or ES or CL or pre-mkt or other areas where traders frequently struggle...) but rather avoid anything in which you do not have a demonstrated edge. If you have an edge, then you are also likely to know how often the specific play is successful (& therefore - how often it will fail). Unless your edge is proven at 100% success (very unlikely), you understand that some % of the time, an unprofitable play is expected. If you do not have a demonstrated edge, you're simply gambling & don't even know how bad the odds....
Neke: sorry to interrupt your thread - best of luck next week.
All the best,
R
Quote from atticus:
I just caught your journal. How are you short xxx shares of AMZN with <$10k?
Still no word from neke.. he normally gives an update every friday.
I hope his account hasnt fallen below 200K this week.
Lost it all selling FCN Puts... more later.
Quote from short&naked:
Lost it all selling FCN Puts... more later.
Hi Neke thanks for sharing this journal.
From what I've read from others about you, you are a good trader. However, I do not understand your risk mgmt policy and WHY you have chosen this policy - which too me seems as if excessive risk is being taken unnecessarily. Can you please shed light on how you decide when to take a loss? Do you feel that you have to bet big to win big? Do you use mental stops?
Thank you.
Give the guy a break, it take time to make up trades. He has a life outside this forum.
Quote from BarbaraM:
Give the guy a break, it take time to make up trades. He has a life outside this forum.
I wanted to come on here to report Neke has been wiped out, he has left the building. There were a few options trades that went bad. Neke is no more...
Quote from retaildaytrader:
I wanted to come on here to report Neke has been wiped out, he has left the building. There were a few options trades that went bad. Neke is no more...
Quote from TGpop:
are you serious?
How can that be? I though he had around 200k left. He could not have lost all that since last week or so.
Quote from retaildaytrader:
I wanted to come on here to report Neke has been wiped out, he has left the building. There were a few options trades that went bad. Neke is no more...
Quote from short&naked:
not funny...
See... this is how nasty little rumors get started...
No update from neke this weekend , he always did an update every friday without fail.. could these blowup rumours be true
Why do you all gloat and wish for his demise?
WHY
Why would you short AMZN in the after hours market at 102.50. Listen.... forget staying away from earnings STAY AWAY FROM PRE MARKET AND AFTER HOUR TRADING!!!
QUOTE]Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 28/50 ended 07/24/2010
Ugly week, down 21K (8.3%).
A collection of bad losses accounted for the mess. Nothing outsized by itself, and I did not have much rule violation to report, no averaging down, yet I got clobbered in both discretionary and automated trading. Playing earnings news really hurt me bad. After the negative reaction to strong Intel results, you would think the market would take down any major cap that disappointed. Not so for GS and AMZN, and that cost me quite a lot. For AMZN shorted 2000 shares after earnings @ 102.50 on what looked like terrible earnings for a high multiple stock (thought this was the short of the month). Turned out to be an enormous short trap. Covered Fri pre-market @ 106.20 (Glad I did considering how the stock ran up to 119!)losing 7K.
With a fourth straight week of losses in my automated trades, I am forced to size down and consider whether this is a normal draw-down or a break-down of strategies.
code:
Opening Balance: 249,050
Net loss for the week 20,728
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance: 228,322
Number of Trades 41
Number of Profitable Trades 19
Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 07/24/2010
Opening Balance: 410,000
Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 181,678 (Down 44%)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance 228,322
Number of Trades 906
Number of Profitable Trades 473
BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY
Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser
AUTO 22 -7,516.70 3,058.30 -3,904.90
DISCR 19 -13,220.30 7,149.30 -6,861.50
[/QUOTE]
Quote from The Bishop:
Why do you all gloat and wish for his demise?
Quote from neke:
With a fourth straight week of losses in my automated trades, I am forced to size down and consider whether this is a normal draw-down or a break-down of strategies.
Quote from The Bishop:
Why do you all gloat and wish for his demise?
Quote from Picaso:
Hope everything is ok, Neke, and that you're charging up the batteries in Bahamas.
Quote from neke:
Sorry about the belated post. Was away from Thurs on a trip where I had no chance to get on the web or trade, just coming back. Funny the kind of imagination at work. For the week (3 days of trading) lost about 2.5K. More details after I have rested. I think I indeed need some Bahamas cooling off.
NoDoji,
Your Account > Edit Options > 40 Posts Per Page.
I had to switch mine back to 10/page to find the graph. haha
I have to say that is pretty impressive!
Quote from retaildaytrader:
I wanted to come on here to report Neke has been wiped out, he has left the building. There were a few options trades that went bad. Neke is no more...
Quote from neke:
I think I indeed need some Bahamas cooling off.
Weekly Update for week 29/50 ended 07/31/2010
Light week of trading, down 3K(1.3%).
Made 8 automated trades Mon, Tue, Wed as I was involved in an allday workshop, and was having +1.2K to show. Made one discretionary trade on Wednesday afternoon fading the SPY move and that was a loss that wiped out the automated gains and more. Turned off my automation as I was on trip Thur/Fri and I didn't trust it enough to run unattended for days.
It will probably be a slow grind from here till year end as I concentrate more on improving my automation.
code:
Opening Balance: 228,322 Net loss for the week 3,032 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 225,290 Number of Trades 9 Number of Profitable Trades 5 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 07/31/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 184,710 (Down 45%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 225,290 Number of Trades 915 Number of Profitable Trades 478 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 8 1,191.00 1,504.70 -1,398.40 DISCR 1 -4,188.60 0.00 -4,188.60
Weekly Update for week 30/50 ended 08/07/2010
Nice week, up 18K (7.9%).
Week began badly on Monday when I shorted HUM after the earning on leverage. Lost 7K in that one. Started a nice comeback on Tuesday on both the automated and discretionary front, including gains on PCLN long/call options, and finished the week 18K higher.
code:
Opening Balance: 225,390 Net gain for the week 17,868 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 243,258 Number of Trades 28 Number of Profitable Trades 17 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 08/07/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 166,742 (Down 41%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 243,258 Number of Trades 943 Number of Profitable Trades 495 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 15 5,862.40 2,411.90 -2,745.80 DISCR 13 12,106.70 8,072.00 -6,904.60 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETAIONARY TRADES PCLNAUG212010270.0CALL 2010-08-04-09-43-57 2010-08-04-15-35-12 4000 53980 62140 8072 PCLN CALL PCLN 2010-08-03-18-18-42 2010-08-04-10-30-16 300 80250 84300 4035 LONG PPO 2010-08-05-09-40-20 2010-08-05-11-22-26 6152 167961 165246 -2746 LONG HUM 2010-08-02-09-34-07 2010-08-02-15-18-53 15000 727482 720666 -6905 SHORT
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 30/50 ended 08/07/2010
Nice week, up 18K (7.9%).
Week began badly on Monday when I shorted HUM after the earning on leverage. Lost 7K in that one. Started a nice comeback on Tuesday on both the automated and discretionary front, including gains on PCLN long/call options, and finished the week 18K higher.
that's the style
hey; i'm considering learning more about options....but find natenberg so dense and it just doesn't sink in ! any advice on more beginner friendly books?
Quote from NoDoji:
Nice, Neke! Good to see you playing off the trend and the scrambling shorts on PCLN
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 30/50 ended 08/07/2010
Nice week, up 18K (7.9%).
Week began badly on Monday when I shorted HUM after the earning on leverage. Lost 7K in that one. Started a nice comeback on Tuesday on both the automated and discretionary front, including gains on PCLN long/call options, and finished the week 18K higher.
Weekly Update for week 31/50 ended 08/14/2010
Sad week, down 23K (9.3%).
Just when I thought I have taken a step forward, now a giant step backward. Started on Monday going long HPQ amidst the early sell off. Averaged down, and the result was -11K loss. Pared the loss the remainder of the week, especially Thursday longing the market in the early sell-off. Then gave back even more on Fri buying JWN (My automated shorted the stock, when I saw it, decided againts it, and instead went long, then averaged in as it went againt me. Result -16K.
Heartbroken.
Had a glitch with my automation that took some unwanted positions at the open Tuesday (Was testing my automation the prior night, did not realise it left a bunch of open orders until the market started on Tues when some of them got filled. Glad it cost only 2K).
I need a moment of reflection.
code:
Opening Balance: 243,258 Net loss for the week 22,740 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 220,518 Number of Trades 26 Number of Profitable Trades 13 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 08/14/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 189,482 (Down 46%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 220,518 Number of Trades 969 Number of Profitable Trades 508 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 14 -1,988.20 635.00 -1,314.20 DISCR 12 -20,752.30 6,248.60 -16,368.50 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETAIONARY TRADES SPYAUG212010107.0CALL 2010-08-12-10-42-35 2010-08-12-15-58-18 30000 75450 82125 6249 SPY CALL HPQ 2010-08-09-09-32-24 2010-08-09-12-12-47 18000 780539 769184 -11410 LONG JWN 2010-08-13-09-53-28 2010-08-13-13-41-31 24000 763569 747332 -16369 LONG
Quote from neke:
Then gave back even more on Fri buying JWN (My automated shorted the stock, when I saw it, decided againts it, and instead went long, then averaged in as it went againt me. Result -16K.
This is why once you are in a trade with a stop and target, you will less logically then before. Taking a position is usually against logic.
For example, in the morning, a master forex trader told me that the report was good news, so I went long ES, and was stopped out for a small loss, because I did not follow my system.
However, the next trade, I went long CL, and made a profit that was double my loss, but still did not follow my rules which were to stay in the trade longer.
Quote from saminny:
I am curious why you decided to go against the automated strategy for JWN. Did you have a strong bias on this stock? Looks like this move didn't work and had a most drawdown.
On JWN, 24000 is the number of shares traded? Or your max size position?
Quote from neke:
I need a moment of reflection.
Quote from lescor:
You need several moments in a 12 step rehab program for your gambling addiction.
hi, not that i'm an expert, but it seems i went thru some of what you did, and also my sizing is smaller.
- Be careful with avg down, it can kill you. Why are you avging down? i know you are trying to break even, and some time it did, sometime it did not. The tricky thing is as u avg down, u are also increasing the size. And why you need to avg down, because the price is going down, not up, and proved that you are wrong in your 1st decision to buy it. Yet you are increasing your size in this wrong buy.
- You are going against the trend.
- why not try decrease your size till you are back to your winning form?
Hope these helps, because i did go thru some heartbreaking moments (big losses) as you did...
I am going to have to agree, averaging down is def not the way out, its so cliche but true...
Staying neutral for the week is better than being down, 20 some thing K....
I know you got yourself into a hole, and are trying to work your way out, but with the unpredictability of the market and low volume, now is not the time to take a stand...
Work on your system and wait for a volume rebound... Maybe work on some swing trading, intra day is becoming much more volatile and less visable...
Again cliche but, Adapt or die..
Quote from innovest_11:
hi, not that i'm an expert, but it seems i went thru some of what you did, and also my sizing is smaller.
- Be careful with avg down, it can kill you. Why are you avging down? i know you are trying to break even, and some time it did, sometime it did not. The tricky thing is as u avg down, u are also increasing the size. And why you need to avg down, because the price is going down, not up, and proved that you are wrong in your 1st decision to buy it. Yet you are increasing your size in this wrong buy.
- You are going against the trend.
- why not try decrease your size till you are back to your winning form?
=..
neke, don't feel too bad, this week had some incredible volatility in general. I got run over myself. but as long as you have air in your lungs, you can easily make that money back. keep your risk management in check and good luck next week.
Neke, reflect on what signaled your entry into each trade.
If it's a technical signal with a sound reason for entry, then a technical breakdown point is where your stop needs to be, no exceptions.
If it's an intuition, then go in small and let the price action tell you whether your intuition is right. Your stop still needs to be based on a technical breakdown point, no exceptions.
If it's an opinion, avoid the trade. The way you can tell it's an opinion is when your thoughts about the trade contain words like "always" ("Price always bounces/crashes when this happens."), or "never" ("It's never before done Y after X occurs.").
Other hints that you're about to trade an opinion are thoughts like: "The news isn't that bad; this is really overdone." (HPQ), and "Earnings were fantastic; this one's really gonna run." (DV), and "It can't go much higher/lower than this; if it does, I'll just add to the position and take profits on the retrace." (OK, I realize that is actually a viable strategy for the experienced counter-trend trader who utilizes a fixed max stop loss planned in advance, but the way you know you're an experienced counter-trend trader who fits that description is that either your name is Ammo or you have a consistently positive equity curve over a long period of time with infrequent drawdowns).
In pre-market/afterhours as well as the first 15-30 minutes after the open, emotions run high with fear and greed at their worst when it comes to earnings/news gaps. Tread carefully.
I see a lot of good spirited replies. However, I'm afraid your good intentions might cause more harm than good.
Neke is not trading, he is gambling, his risk aversion is in the toilet and until the day comes where he recognizes this his capital will continue to to deplete.
ESD
:]
Auto -- shorted. But you decided against it. Result -16k. Why even bother automating -- if your going to go against it?
Seriously WTF -- do you enjoy ppl laughing at you [even if it's digital] and we have no idea who you are.
Quote from neke:
(My automated shorted the stock, when I saw it, decided againts it, and instead went long, then averaged in as it went againt me. Result -16K.
Heartbroken.
Neke,
Shouldn't you stop and re-evaluate your trading strategy? You can't lose >50% of an account. That's basically the definition of blowing up an account. Something is wrong.
Let me ask you and hopefully create a learning experience for everyone, from beginner to advanced traders: what is your risk mgmt policy?
Quote from neke:
I need a moment of reflection.
......................
BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY
...............
__________________
"The Pursuit of Happyness" --- Chris Gardner
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/qna.html
Past performance does not guarantee a future repeat.
This dude is heading for a blow up, assuming > 50% is not one already.
Wake up guy, you burning the green !
Save something for the kids lol
__________________
Nexen
Daytrader not paper
actually fully agree. The more I read about Neke's approach to trading the more it comes across as a gambling addiction. I have never heard of anyone to get rich by fading the market, and thats precisely what Neke is in the majority of cases doing...
Quote from lescor:
You need several moments in a 12 step rehab program for your gambling addiction.
is this "always" the way to tell whether its an opinion or not? Or sometimes?
You sound like ready to publish another of those "the electronic daytrader" books.
Quote from NoDoji:
The way you can tell it's an opinion is when your thoughts about the trade contain words like "always" ("Price always bounces/crashes when this happens."), or "never" ("It's never before done Y after X occurs.").
I have an automated trading system where the weakest link is myself. I keep futzing with it, even though the data shows that it works over time.
After I took 8 days of losses in a row, I found myself extremely gun shy, and the thought of losing, whether or not it was big or small, was incredibly painful. This is why I kept screwing around with my system, and it cost me a lot of money. I psychologically couldn't take the pain of taking more losses.
If you find yourself second-guessing the system, you need to analyze it and regain the faith you had. If you find yourself wanting to mess with the system, cut the size of the trade in half, and don't touch it.
Remember, you have an automated system for a reason, if you keep messing with it, you will lose money. I've learned this from experience.
Quote from asiaprop:
I have never heard of anyone to get rich by fading the market, and thats precisely what Neke is in the majority of cases doing...
Quote from asiaprop:
You sound like ready to publish another of those "the electronic daytrader" books.
Quote from anesthesiaman:
Neke,
Shouldn't you stop and re-evaluate your trading strategy? You can't lose >50% of an account. That's basically the definition of blowing up an account. Something is wrong.
Let me ask you and hopefully create a learning experience for everyone, from beginner to advanced traders: what is your risk mgmt policy?
Quote from rallydog:
I begged him a couple of months ago, as have many others. His system has failed, but there is still plenty of cash left to pull it out IF he stops and regroups.
Go to another method and get small, really small, like ten shares small. Right now it is all about preserving capital.
Good luck Neke
Quote from illiquid:
On JWN, 24000 is the number of shares traded? Or your max size position?
You position sizing scheme and concentrated bets -- are absurd to say the least.
Might as well just go skydiving -- if your in such dire need of adrenalin.
Quote from neke:
Maximum position size at one time (accumulated thru averaging down)
Quote from asiaprop:
You sound like ready to publish another of those "the electronic daytrader" books.
Quote from NoDoji:
Never.
Quote from Picaso:
Nod, I remember reading in your journal that you were putting up a pdf, did you publish an e-book on trading?
Why never?
I'm sure it would be interesting, both for you and for anyone reading it.
Quote from neke:
Maximum position size at one time (accumulated thru averaging down)
Neke...just stop doing it.
The majority of people that have replied to Neke appear to be doing it from the goodness of their heart and it seems that they sincerely want to see Neke succeed. Neke has several issues to address; none of them too major individually but together they are an account killer.
1st...The market determines what type of strategy you must use in order to extract profits during the prevailing market action.
You have trend-following, mean reversion, and range bound strategies as the 3 major types of market action and then you must use a strategy that excels in that particular market action.
2nd...Neke has failed to separate and distinguish luck from skill due to his early success. It is not hard to make lots of money if you have a bearish bias and the market happens to be in a downtrend. Consistently profitable traders quickly realize when their bias and their positions are counter to the price action and they admit that they are on the wrong side of the market ASAP.
3rd...Neke has been trying to trade a 400k account in the same manner that he traded a 15k account. That is probably his biggest mistake. Your psyche and life is not greatly affected if you lose 15k or have a 50% drawdown(only $7500) but when you start taking 50%+ drawdowns on $400k then you are talking about major money. In a large account capital preservation is paramount because you already have what so many others are trying to get(money).
The majority of the trades Neke has been making have had no basis in logic and they were merely someone grasping at straws with the flawed notion that he had a 50% chance of making money on each trade...he either hits a winner or he hits a loser. But in actuality the majority of those trades never had a chance once he entered the trade. This train wreck has been imminent for quite some time but the good news is that you still have a nice sized account from which to work and grow equity if you devise a sound, market logic based trading strategy. Go buy a motorcycle or join some sort of extreme sport to fulfill your need for excitement. Trading is boring as hell and if it is exciting...you are doing it wrong.
__________________
Just doing it and doing it well.
Re: Neke...just stop doing it.
Quote from JustDoingIt:
2nd...Neke has failed to separate and distinguish luck from skill due to his early success. It is not hard to make lots of money if you have a bearish bias and the market happens to be in a downtrend. Consistently profitable traders quickly realize when their bias and their positions are counter to the price action and they admit that they are on the wrong side of the market ASAP.
3rd...Neke has been trying to trade a 400k account in the same manner that he traded a 15k account. That is probably his biggest mistake. Your psyche and life is not greatly affected if you lose 15k or have a 50% drawdown(only $7500) but when you start taking 50%+ drawdowns on $400k then you are talking about major money. In a large account capital preservation is paramount because you already have what so many others are trying to get(money).
The majority of the trades Neke has been making have had no basis in logic and they were merely someone grasping at straws with the flawed notion that he had a 50% chance of making money on each trade...he either hits a winner or he hits a loser. But in actuality the majority of those trades never had a chance once he entered the trade. This train wreck has been imminent for quite some time but the good news is that you still have a nice sized account from which to work and grow equity if you devise a sound, market logic based trading strategy. Go buy a motorcycle or join some sort of extreme sport to fulfill your need for excitement. Trading is boring as hell and if it is exciting...you are doing it wrong.
Re: Re: Neke...just stop doing it.
Quote from illiquid:
Neke, take this post to heart. Do you really believe there is a 50/50 chance on each trade you put on? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you're beyond that point already and have other issues to deal with (issues I'm all too familiar with, not being hypocritical just trying to help) but if that's really the way you see things then you need to stop for a much needed reality check.
Up +18K, so you felt good about yourself and decided to "tweak the system", which led you to a big loss. Ain't that right, neke?
Re: Re: Re: Neke...just stop doing it.
Quote from saminny:
When did he claim he had a 50-50 chance on a trade? Have you considered may be he had a strong reason to take position on those stocks and was proved otherwise?
I understand the risk management needs a lot of work.... but lets not throw too much at him...
Re: Re: Re: Re: Neke...just stop doing it.
Quote from illiquid:
I'll bet the instinct just isn't there; if you're already up on 5, 10k shares, why press your luck, right? There's a natural asymmetry everyone shares. But remember, the market will always give you as large a losing position as your buying power can handle, whereas shares on the winning side are as (relatively) scarce as gold.
Neke,
I got nothing against averaging down as long as you keep an ultimate emergency stop as you evidently do.
Problem I see, is that you keep averaging down against the trend.
Ever tried averaging down with the prevailing trend, it's much easier to make money that way.
It works for me, unfortunately I don't have your capital, I'm a very small fish, but it works for me.
Good luck man.
__________________
Nexen
Daytrader not paper
Quote from neke:
Just checked, and I am up 6K since you "begged" me (5/7/2010). That's not bad
Yes, seriously, I am re-evaluating my discretionary trading. It is obvious I cannot continue like this. It appears given enough rope, I am all too eager to hang myself. At the same time I do not think ceasing completely is the answer. I am looking at restrictions I can immediately put in place/enforce for my discretionary trading,
24000 in JWN is over $800000 . . . that's insane.
Weekly Update for week 32/50 ended 08/21/2010
More of the same, down 7K (3.2%).
Was making some little gains and headed for a positive week until Thursday. Put in a trigger to buy SPY calls on pull-back. Did not realize a sell-off was happening. Closed later for a loss of 14K (Too much size for a day before expiration).
After due analysis of my transactions for this year, I came to the conclusion that leverage is responsible for 100% of the losses this year. Most of the bad leverage came through averaging down. I took all the initial entry prices and the final exit prices, and derived the average returns based on those prices (eliminating the intermediate averaged prices), and the result showed stocks had an average loss of 0.02% (ratio 0.9998), while options had an average gain of 0.5% per trade. Combined they were a little above break-even. The summary was that the cummulative effect of leverage handicap is responsible for the staggering loss.
[I gave this example before of the effect of leverage when the edge is too slim:
This is an example of what I call the "leverage handicap". You are shorting a stock in two trades. The stock goes from 120 to 100 in the first trade,
and then back to 120 in the second trade. You would think that is a break-even trade (minus commissions). But it is not, especially if you go with leverage like I do.
At the first trade, with a balance of say 150K in account and buying power of 300K (2Xaccount), you could short 2500 shares @ 120. You cover at 100, gaining 50K. You now have 200K and a buying power of 400K. You can now short 4000 shares @ 100. You cover at 120, losing 80K. On the whole you have lost 30K (20%) through pure stock volatility. Does not really matter whether the stock goes down first and up or the reverse.
So to make it in those times, your edge need to be stellar. ]
This year it has been close to 50-50 proposition on trades (excluding averaging down), so the negative effect of leverage has become too apparent. Going forward for the remainder of the year, size on stocks is being capped at 1Xacctvalue (currently $210K worth), while for options the value of the underlying should not be more than 3Xacctountvalue ($630K worth) - example maximum permissible SPY calls would be 58 contracts (with SPY @ 108). My position monitor will see to the enforcement of this. So yes, no more size of $778K on JWN with an account size of 213K!
code:
Opening Balance: 220,518 Net loss for the week 7,114 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 213,404 Number of Trades 16 Number of Profitable Trades 10 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 08/21/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 196,596 (Down 48%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 213,404 Number of Trades 985 Number of Profitable Trades 518 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 7 1,188.60 2,659.30 -1,370.40 DISCR 9 -8,303.10 2,467.30 -14,037.70 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETAIONARY TRADES SPYAUG212010107.0CALL 2010-08-19-09-52-39 2010-08-19-12-58-47 17800 35145 21360 -14037.7 OPOCOL-SPY
Quote from neke:
This is an example of what I call the "leverage handicap". You are shorting a stock in two trades. The stock goes from 120 to 100 in the first trade,
and then back to 120 in the second trade. You would think that is a break-even trade (minus commissions). But it is not, especially if you go with leverage like I do.
At the first trade, with a balance of say 150K in account and buying power of 300K (2Xaccount), you could short 2500 shares @ 120. You cover at 100, gaining 50K. You now have 200K and a buying power of 400K. You can now short 4000 shares @ 100. You cover at 120, losing 80K. On the whole you have lost 30K (20%) through pure stock volatility. Does not really matter whether the stock goes down first and up or the reverse.
it is all about edge. Nothing else.
If you have it, leverage is great. If you don't have it, leverage kills you. Plain and simple.
Do not forget how much you have gained last year. If you didn't use leverage, your gain last year would be much smaller.
Quote from neke:
This is an example of what I call the "leverage handicap". You are shorting a stock in two trades. The stock goes from 120 to 100 in the first trade,
and then back to 120 in the second trade. You would think that is a break-even trade (minus commissions). But it is not, especially if you go with leverage like I do.
At the first trade, with a balance of say 150K in account and buying power of 300K (2Xaccount), you could short 2500 shares @ 120. You cover at 100, gaining 50K. You now have 200K and a buying power of 400K. You can now short 4000 shares @ 100. You cover at 120, losing 80K. On the whole you have lost 30K (20%) through pure stock volatility. Does not really matter whether the stock goes down first and up or the reverse.
This year it has been close to 50-50 proposition on trades (excluding averaging down), so the negative effect of leverage has become too apparent. Going forward for the remainder of the year, size on stocks is being capped at 1Xacctvalue (currently $210K worth), while for options the value of the underlying should not be more than 3Xacctountvalue ($630K worth) - example maximum permissible SPY calls would be 58 contracts (with SPY @ 108). My position monitor will see to the enforcement of this. So yes, no more size of $778K on JWN with an account size of 213K!
You've found a wordy way to say "I've been killed in the market because I trade with too much size", which is exactly what people have been warning you about going back to last year's journal. I wouldn't trade 1/10th your size with multiples of your account equity. Even your new and improved sizing rules are ludicrous. Just my opinion though, good luck.
Quote from neke:
After due analysis of my transactions for this year, I came to the conclusion that leverage is responsible for 100% of the losses this year.
you should consider your edge temperature,if its been hot you trade a little larger,cold, you trade a lot smaller...,preserve capital til you get hot again,......look at yourself as a manager of a professional team,......if the QB,just got body slammed on his throwing shoulder, you are not going to send in a pass play,you play it safe, wait to you see if he's healthy or even replace him,....the coach is logical while farve and his ego may not be,....... posting this journal might make you think you have to produce to avoid embarrassment,you may feel you have to produce to get your money back.....niether thought has any concern for the market....i dont know what your thinking ,but i've been in your spot and had these thoughts... i would love to see you post 3 winning 3 k weeks in a row
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 32/50 ended 08/21/2010
More of the same, down 7K (3.2%).
Was making some little gains and headed for a positive week until Thursday. Put in a trigger to buy SPY calls on pull-back. Did not realize a sell-off was happening. Closed later for a loss of 14K (Too much size for a day before expiration).
After due analysis of my transactions for this year, I came to the conclusion that leverage is responsible for 100% of the losses this year. Most of the bad leverage came through averaging down. I took all the initial entry prices and the final exit prices, and derived the average returns based on those prices (eliminating the intermediate averaged prices), and the result showed stocks had an average loss of 0.02% (ratio 0.9998), while options had an average gain of 0.5% per trade. Combined they were a little above break-even. The summary was that the cummulative effect of leverage handicap is responsible for the staggering loss.
[I gave this example before of the effect of leverage when the edge is too slim:
This is an example of what I call the "leverage handicap". You are shorting a stock in two trades. The stock goes from 120 to 100 in the first trade,
and then back to 120 in the second trade. You would think that is a break-even trade (minus commissions). But it is not, especially if you go with leverage like I do.
At the first trade, with a balance of say 150K in account and buying power of 300K (2Xaccount), you could short 2500 shares @ 120. You cover at 100, gaining 50K. You now have 200K and a buying power of 400K. You can now short 4000 shares @ 100. You cover at 120, losing 80K. On the whole you have lost 30K (20%) through pure stock volatility. Does not really matter whether the stock goes down first and up or the reverse.
So to make it in those times, your edge need to be stellar. ]
This year it has been close to 50-50 proposition on trades (excluding averaging down), so the negative effect of leverage has become too apparent. Going forward for the remainder of the year, size on stocks is being capped at 1Xacctvalue (currently $210K worth), while for options the value of the underlying should not be more than 3Xacctountvalue ($630K worth) - example maximum permissible SPY calls would be 58 contracts (with SPY @ 108). My position monitor will see to the enforcement of this. So yes, no more size of $778K on JWN with an account size of 213K!
code:
Opening Balance: 220,518 Net loss for the week 7,114 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 213,404 Number of Trades 16 Number of Profitable Trades 10 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 08/21/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 196,596 (Down 48%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 213,404 Number of Trades 985 Number of Profitable Trades 518 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 7 1,188.60 2,659.30 -1,370.40 DISCR 9 -8,303.10 2,467.30 -14,037.70 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETAIONARY TRADES SPYAUG212010107.0CALL 2010-08-19-09-52-39 2010-08-19-12-58-47 17800 35145 21360 -14037.7 OPOCOL-SPY
Darn, this is painful to see.
It seems like, edges can go away or get smaller or you can stray from your system. For any of those reasons you can start having a losing streak. Then you think about reworking your system or decreasing size. But right then you hit a small winner. So you think you are back winning, only to hit a new bigger loser. And so it goes.
At least I have to incorporate some hard rules to decrease size aggressively if equity decreases, because discretion cannot be trusted even for a very experienced guy like neke.
Attributing your losses this year to the leverage handicap will prevent you from making the changes to your trading that you need to make to turn things around. It seems that too much of your decision about position sizing comes from looking at the buying power in your account rather than evaluating the quality of each trade and using the amount of edge in the trade to qualify how much capital you are willing to risk a priori.
The one thing that will help you most is moving away from a percentage return goal and trying to grind out a given amount of profits for the quality of the trading conditions that appear each week for your trading strategies. Your trades lack scalability and shooting for some ridiculous ROI I think has contributed greatly to your losses.
A thorough evaluation of the quality of each of your trades setups, coupled with defining the amount of capital you are willing to risk on each setup, will go a long way towards moving yourself to become consistently profitable. Edges change over time and it is most important to always be redefining the setups that work best for you. I would also state that indiscriminate fading has long since been purged from my strategies. The process of purging it ended up fundamentally changing the way I trade and you may find a reevaluation of your setups may lead to new stratagies that will reinvigorate your trading.
I wish you all of the best and look forward to a profitable comeback.
How do we know if its Neke to blame or the market conditions? Last year his journal did very well. maybe this is just drawdown, and he'll come back and kill it next year...
IMO he does take a lot of risk, but I've read about traders in Trader Monthly that took huge risks, and made huge sums. I personally wouldnt be able to handle it.
Quote from konviction:
How do we know if its Neke to blame or the market conditions?
Quote from konviction:
How do we know if its Neke to blame or the market conditions? Last year his journal did very well. maybe this is just drawdown, and he'll come back and kill it next year...
IMO he does take a lot of risk, but I've read about traders in Trader Monthly that took huge risks, and made huge sums. I personally wouldnt be able to handle it.
Quote from konviction:
How do we know if its Neke to blame or the market conditions? Last year his journal did very well. maybe this is just drawdown, and he'll come back and kill it next year...
IMO he does take a lot of risk, but I've read about traders in Trader Monthly that took huge risks, and made huge sums. I personally wouldnt be able to handle it.
Neke,
I hold no illusion you’ll listen to me – but I’ll post my thoughts just the same
Reading over the last several pages– arguably the best, most competent traders – this site has to offer – are posting the same message
If you don’t see it…, if it isn’t registering…, then your ego is amuck and overshadowing your trader sensibilities…
Without exception they have your best interest at heart – it’s reflected in their message
Listen to them – Please…..
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At times we are prone to taking trading too personal – and it is at those times specifically we are most susceptible to doing ourselves the greatest damage
For once trading becomes personal – it is the hardest for us to step back – be objective – and dispassionately assess what we’re doing..., and the results our efforts are having…
Please step back – and objectively assess your results as of late…
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By the very nature of our business traders are a cut throat bunch – but we still have a heart – our heart aches when we see a colleague running headlong into blow up…
You’re not a bad trader – You’re simply trading badly – we all do on occasion – we’re only human
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imho
Even if by chance you recover without modifying your current trading approach – you’re going to be right back in this same situation at some point – it’s inevitable (one of the lessons I took away from Livermore)
Respectfully
RN
Quote from konviction:
How do we know if its Neke to blame or the market conditions? Last year his journal did very well. maybe this is just drawdown, and he'll come back and kill it next year...
IMO he does take a lot of risk, but I've read about traders in Trader Monthly that took huge risks, and made huge sums. I personally wouldnt be able to handle it.
Support and Resistance Levels???
Just out of curiosity Neke (or anyone who knows his system)...
Do you use even something as basic as S/R levels?
Do you use simple trend lines at all?
Your leverage example is ludicrous to say the least if even the most basic price action tools are used....
neke ,i don't know your age ,nor your history with wealth,but it's very common to shoot youself in the foot to allow your ego to regain control,if its never seen wealth before and has lost control of neke ,or any of us
Quote from ammo:
neke ,i don't know your age ,nor your history with wealth,but it's very common to shoot youself in the foot to allow your ego to regain control,if its never seen wealth before and has lost control of neke ,or any of us
Here is what I see:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWy_0_r3pJI
Still big fan of yours, neke. Good Luck!
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
OK this is getting painful to watch.
As per your example, and I realize this is only an example. However it's one you chose as an example of how might operate.
Who in the Hell puts on 60% more size on a short when a stock has just fallen from 120 - 100 (a drop of 16.6%) and then let's it retrace 20 points (a move of 20%)?
I'll tell ya who. No professional trader that I know of but plenty of gamblers would.
Leverage is a very useful tool when used correctly. When used as recklessly as you use it, it leads to financial death. You do realize this is actual money you're flushing down the toilet right?
There's many people on this site who simply have no clue. I believe you actually have some talent. That's why watching you piss it away is so disappointing.
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
WRONG your losses are due to crap risk management.
You're batting .523 for the year and you're losing money. That's terrible risk management. You'd need to be over .800 to make any dough with your risk management. So sad.
Quote from lescor:
You've found a wordy way to say "I've been killed in the market because I trade with too much size", which is exactly what people have been warning you about going back to last year's journal. I wouldn't trade 1/10th your size with multiples of your account equity. Even your new and improved sizing rules are ludicrous. Just my opinion though, good luck.
Neke
I'll refrain from beating the point to death, but please take a step back and reassess everything. A lot of good traders have given you golden advice on here, so as Redneck said, please listen to them. It's the same advice you'll get from any Head of Trading Operations at any firm, except it'll be more of any order than an advice.
You don't come off as a clueless trader, so please do the smart thing and reassess.
I continue to root for you. Best of Luck.
EKO
Weekly Update for week 33/50 ended 08/28/2010
Positive week, up 9.3K (4.4%).
Small size plays all week, with decent win rate. Should have capped it up with a stellar day on Friday but it was not to be. Bought 70 SPYSEP 104 Calls @ 2.80 when the market dipped after 10am, but quickly decided to sell when the index rebounded a bit @ 2.98. Made 1.3K, and watched the market tear away all day. Easily left 7K on the table.
Will keep focused on sticking to the sizing discipline for my discretionary trades (Max $150K for stocks, and contracts worth $750K for options).
code:
Opening Balance: 213,404 Net gain for the week 9,313 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 222,717 Number of Trades 16 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 08/28/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 187,283 (Down 46%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 222,717 Number of Trades 1001 Number of Profitable Trades 529 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 5 3,314.90 2,685.40 -1,121.70 DISCR 11 5,997.90 3,081.40 -1,592.30 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETIONARY TRADES TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SPYSEP182010105.0CALL 2010-08-25-09-49-42 2010-08-25-15-39-34 5100 12801 15963 3081.4 SPY CALL -------------------------------------------------------- SPYSEP182010106.0PUT 2010-08-24-10-30-20 2010-08-24-11-29-43 6000 18540 17040 -1592.3 SPY CALL
nice job Neke !!!
Love to read your post neke, good job.
Quote from neke:
Easily left 7K on the table.
Quote from neke:
[B]BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY
Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser
AUTO 5 3,314.90 2,685.40 -1,121.70
DISCR 11 5,997.90 3,081.40 -1,592.30
Quote from neke:
[B]Bought 70 SPYSEP 104 Calls @ 2.80 when the market dipped after 10am, but quickly decided to sell when the index rebounded a bit @ 2.98. Made 1.3K, and watched the market tear away all day. Easily left 7K on the table.
Trading alone ...
With all the problems this year, is trading alone, w/o professional mentor at the neke's size of the account wise ?
__________________
Lojze
Re: Trading alone ...
Quote from lojze:
With all the problems this year, is trading alone, w/o professional mentor at the neke's size of the account wise ?
Lol, over 200K in base kapital, and this is all he/she kould akomplish in a week... A measly 7k?
Quote from gettinglucky:
Lol, over 200K in base kapital, and this is all he/she kould akomplish in a week... A measly 7k?
Quote from gettinglucky:
Lol, over 200K in base kapital, and this is all he/she kould akomplish in a week... A measly 7k?
Quote from cvds16:
your arrogance knows no bounds ! what have you added allready to this forum besides stupidity ?
I have a niece who is five years old, she knows better replies than that lol
how much is neke worth now?
i doubt anyone knows except neke.
Neke might perform better if he starts a new thread next year, "Taking 41k to $4.10 BY Year End 2011". The whole idea of making 1000% return just because you want to suggests exactly why Neke doesn't invest well. However, this in itself makes it fairly educational, the question is at what point does Neke read his own journal and change his ways.
Weekly Update for week 34/50 ended 09/04/2010
Negative week, down 2.6K (1.2%).
Was on a workshop for most of the week. Only one discretionary trade on Monday, losing 1.6K, while the rest were automated trades (including 2K lost to order duplication as a result of a bug). Will still be doing mostly auto trades next two weeks as my workshops continue.
code:
Opening Balance: 222,717 Net loss for the week 2,636 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 220,081 Number of Trades 9 Number of Profitable Trades 4 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 09/04/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 189,919 (Down 46%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 220,081 Number of Trades 1010 Number of Profitable Trades 534 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 8 -999.40 2,244.20 -3,449.00 DISCR 1 -1,645.30 0.00 -1,645.30
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 34/50 ended 09/04/2010
Negative week, down 2.6K (1.2%).
Was on a workshop for most of the week. Only one discretionary trade on Monday, losing 1.6K, while the rest were automated trades (including 2K lost to order duplication as a result of a bug). Will still be doing mostly auto trades next two weeks as my workshops continue.
code:
Opening Balance: 222,717 Net loss for the week 2,636 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 220,081 Number of Trades 9 Number of Profitable Trades 4 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 09/04/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 189,919 (Down 46%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 220,081 Number of Trades 1010 Number of Profitable Trades 534 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 8 -999.40 2,244.20 -3,449.00 DISCR 1 -1,645.30 0.00 -1,645.30
Weekly Update for week 35/50 ended 09/11/2010
Dead week, down $829. Was away from the market for much of the week on workshop. Automated didn't find much trades either.
Need some stirring in the market.
code:
Opening Balance: 220,081 Net loss for the week 829 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 219,252 Number of Trades 8 Number of Profitable Trades 5 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 09/11/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 190,748 (Down 46.5%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 219,252 Number of Trades 1018 Number of Profitable Trades 539 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 5 -139.10 1,819.00 -2,773.00 DISCR 3 -689.40 944.80 -880.50
I hope we get some action and volume in the next several weeks (next week may still suck cause of opex). This week was boring as hell !!!!!
Good luck next week neke
Neke is getting ready to make a run. I can feel it!
Weekly Update for week 36/50 ended 09/18/2010
Better week, up 4K (1.8%). Finally had time to put on a number of discretionary trades in addition to the automated. Will keep trying to push on with the size limits in effect and see how that plays out by year-end.
code:
Opening Balance: 219,252 Net gain for the week 3,936 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 223,188 Number of Trades 16 Number of Profitable Trades 9 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 09/18/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 186,812 (Down 45.6%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 223,188 Number of Trades 1034 Number of Profitable Trades 548 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 10 328.90 1,575.90 -1,348.70 DISCR 6 3,607.30 1,217.90 -41.70
Better week, up 4K (1.8%). Finally had time to put on a number of discretionary trades in addition to the automated. Will keep trying to push on with the size limits in effect and see how that plays out by year-end.
I knew it, two more positive weeks and you've got a trend.
Neke, ignore the naysayers, ignore your original goal, ignore your gambling urges.
Listen to the best you.
You can do it. You have done it before. You will do it again.
Best trading to you.
Weekly Update for week 37/50 ended 09/25/2010
Positive week, up 3.5K (1.6%). Lots of activities, mostly trying to dig myself out of a hole dug on Monday. Initiated a bunch of short positions (automated and discretionary) that suffered with the massive rally. Down about 9K for the day. Spent the rest of the week digging myself out and going to positive territory. Still trading on reduced size.
Shut down a couple of automated strategies this week, after going nowhere for six months, and with a couple hundred trades between them. Some more are on review for possible shut-down, while I try to come up with a couple new ones.
code:
Opening Balance: 223,188 Net gain for the week 3,492 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 226,680 Number of Trades 30 Number of Profitable Trades 18 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 09/25/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 183,320 (Down 44.7%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 226,680 Number of Trades 1064 Number of Profitable Trades 566 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 16 -1,876.20 1,469.30 -2,415.80 DISCR 14 5,367.60 3,838.30 -3,535.30
I'm the kind of guy who likes to shut up and don't interfere with other ppl's business, this is actually my first reply to other ppl's post. But I couldnt help with this post.
I have only been trading for less than 2 years so I might be wrong but the numbers don't lie. Just because you made a 50% something return with leverage last year does not mean you are able to make a 1000% return this year. After all, w/o the leverage you did not even beat the market and if you cant beat the market, what's the point of trading right? I started trading a small account of my own in 2009 and had a 100% return that year with no leverage, and that's the first time I traded and I knew so many people who did much better than me. Although I am an amateur but I know setting an unrealistic goal is definitely a bad start. If you want to argue that setting a high goal will push yourself to work hard, then change the title of this thread to "Taking $1 to 1 trillion by tomorrow".
The way I see it, there are two kinds of people who replied your post.
1) People who offer honest and good advice and really want to help, this is the majority of the replies so far.
2) People who support your trading "strategy" and yell "GO GO NEKE YOU CAN MAKE IT ALL BACK", those people are only saying that because it is not their money being lost. They visit this thread to entertain themselves while you pay the bill.
It is easier to read about someone who is being supportive and difficult to accept an advice that points out your mistakes. But as I said, numbers don't lie, you suffered a 50% loss so far, already blowed up your account. Not a big deal, you still have the chance to recover IF AND ONLY IF you stop trading right now and fix the existing problem with your "strategy" (btw, as many people pointed out already, there is no strategy, only gamble addiction).
The fundamental problem that caused your loss is not bad risk mgmt, bad entry point, bad exit point, bad or no strategy, but all of them. The market is always right, don't blame market conditions.
But I guess you won't listen. Numerous people offered more professional and helpful advice months ago and here you are, doing what you do. If you are a real-life friend of mine I would slap you in the face to wake you up. And you really need someone who can do that to you. Unfortunately, despite of the fact many good-hearted folks wanted to help you, they can not slap you.
Weekly Update for week 38/50 ended 10/02/2010
Good week, up 12K (5.5%). Opportunities were rare, but when they showed up, it was high quality. Great winning rate (8 of 9 trades) made it all the more impressive. Greatest gainer was scooping up SPY calls on Tues morning after the 10am sell off. Netted 5K on that one with 70 contracts.
Still pressing on with the tame size levels
code:
Opening Balance: 226,680 Net gain for the week 12,352 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 239,032 Number of Trades 9 Number of Profitable Trades 8 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 10/02/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 170,968 (Down 41.7%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 239,032 Number of Trades 1073 Number of Profitable Trades 574 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 3 6,133.60 2,805.60 0.00 DISCR 6 6,210.10 4,934.70 -2,625.30 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETIONARY TRADES TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SPYOCT162010113.0CALL 2010-09-28-10-01-43 2010-09-28-11-36-01 7000 15400 20440 4934.7 SPY CALL
ar1zona,
you have been trading for less than two years, but you already sound like you're the big stuff. Sorry, but Neke has been around the block a lot longer than you. He also managed to cope with drastically different market environments and made money in most of them. Have you? If you started in 2009 you most likely only experienced a raging bull with occasional hick ups. Not nearly the same.
I believe that the last thing he needs is some newbie to tell him how to run things based on a short term track record. His total performance over the years so far exceeds yours by a great margin, so I'm not sure why you feel you should be so cocky.
Trading is a personal business. You have to find a strategy that suits you and your own risk tolerance. Every strategy sooner or later will hit a rough patch.
So will yours.
Good luck y'all.
nice job !!
Quote from Klaragorn:
If you started in 2009 you most likely only experienced a raging bull with occasional hick ups.
Hi Klaragorn
First of all, if you read my original reply, I explicitly said I am a beginner and recognize many many others, including neke, is much more experienced. I never meant to sound big, instead, I pointed out I am a newbie from the start (you didnt find it out, I said it myself). In terms of techniques, I am in no position to tell anyone how to run things.
But this thread had been going on for a while and numerous people have said pretty much the same thing that I did, but softer. And Neke himself had admitted there are certain problems that need to be worked on. You picked me because out of everyone how offered pretty much the same advice, I explicitly said I am a new trader. Oh and I sound harder than others, because the soft advices had been said already. I dont want to simply copy and paste previous replies.
Second, I never said my short little track record is significant, recall from my original reply, I did write "many others did better than me". And I did say its a small account. Trading a small account is different than trading a big account. In fact, this is one of the things people had been suggesting in this post, many said neke traded this account the same way one would trade a small account. But this is technical stuff, and I am in no position to comment on this.
Third, I never mentioned anything technical about neke's trading. I am just saying the numbers dont work out, I did say the account was blowed out, but then a hundred people said the same thing before me, I was repeating what half of the repliers are saying. So I am saying this again: i dunno neke's strategy, if there is a problem with it, i dunno how to fix. Instead, my reply was focusing on trading altitudes. What I was trying to say is if something very bad happened, it is the right thing to give yourself a stop and take a deep breath. You do not need to be an expert to tell something went wrong during the first half of the year right? While more experienced people replied with advice on how to fix the problem, I simply said there is a problem, which I believe is obvious.
Anyways, if I accidently sound like big stuff, I never meant it. In fact, I never wanted to mean it that's why I wrote in advance I am a beginner so people don't take it the wrong way. But even experienced traders like neke (i dunno a lot about him, but i assume he is experienced based on what others said) can make mistakes occasionally. This is my logic: beginners like me only learnt the basic stuff (i.e. cut loss), so I remembered the basic stuff. As you become a better trader and learn tons of advanced analytical tools, people tend to forget the first thing they learnt. You know who tends to drown? The ones who know how to swim. I dont think there is any bans against beginners commenting on the psychological aspect of other people's tradings. Btw, I didnt sound completely negative either, I did write neke will get it all back, but after you are involved in a losing streak, its good to take a break before resume.
So lets get the misunderstandings out, my original reply can be summarized as: if you lose a certain % of your capital, you don't need to be an expert to tell its time to take a break. If there is anything wrong with this statement, please point it out. I'm a beginner and I am here to learn, so if my logic is wrong, please let me know. Either way, enjoy your weekend and happy trading next month.
Quote from Klaragorn:
ar1zona,
you have been trading for less than two years, but you already sound like you're the big stuff. Sorry, but Neke has been around the block a lot longer than you. He also managed to cope with drastically different market environments and made money in most of them. Have you? If you started in 2009 you most likely only experienced a raging bull with occasional hick ups. Not nearly the same.
I believe that the last thing he needs is some newbie to tell him how to run things based on a short term track record. His total performance over the years so far exceeds yours by a great margin, so I'm not sure why you feel you should be so cocky.
Trading is a personal business. You have to find a strategy that suits you and your own risk tolerance. Every strategy sooner or later will hit a rough patch.
So will yours.
Good luck y'all.
Nice Job Neke!!
Congrats, Neke. Keep it up and easy on the size.
Weekly Update for week 39/50 ended 10/09/2010
Disastrous week, down 26K (10.8%). Another major set-back on my attempt to break out of this rut. New lows in confidence.
I did have some premonition on Monday when I reached a high of +5K in P/L intraday only to close up barely +1K. I thought I should be on guard the rest of the week. Unfortunately that message got lost in the heat of the battle. Got long LPS on Tues. Stock got halted just before I could get out at end of day, got out the following day, losing 6K on normal size. The total loss after that came to 9K via some other bad trades. Then revenge set in as I placed an order to buy 1000 EQIX at 77. Got filled as the the stock crashed hard, and I decided not to get out but average in. My position monitor immediately closed out my trades that were above size, and instead of stopping, I decided to commit the unpardonable sin: remotely shut down my system, and then proceeded to average down until I had a size of more than 4K shares, four times the intended size. Watched helplessly, and eventually capitulated near the low of the day, losing 20K.
Still wondering why I had to shut down my system. It was there to protect me, and so far I had been diligent not to exceed the size limit until Wed. I still want to believe this is one off, and I will be faithful to my size limits going forward. Sure it would still have been a losing week, but not by this much.
The ability to remotely shut-down the system was primarily for cases where the system is acting incorrectly, or on wrong market data, or extremely unexpected market scenarios (say May 6), not to override my position monitoring. I shall look at limiting this capabililty to only those defined scenarios.
code:
Opening Balance: 239,032 Net loss for the week -25,930 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 213,102 Number of Trades 21 Number of Profitable Trades 9 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 10/09/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 196,898 (Down 48%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 213,102 Number of Trades 1094 Number of Profitable Trades 583 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 11 2,305.30 5,216.40 -5,821.40 DISCR 10 -28,235.20 3,672.50 -19,846.60 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETIONARY TRADES TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE EQIX 2010-10-06-09-48-58 2010-10-06-13-21-44 7400 551095.9 531342.1 -19846.6 LONG (above is total qty traded, maximum position held was 4k shares)
ever tried respecting strong trends?
averaging in, particularly, averaging in against strong trends
is a losers play
__________________
Nexen
Daytrader not paper
Neke
I'm also suffering through a double digit percentile loss this week. Remember: what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Mondays a new week, learn your lesson and move on.
Neke, I really appreciate the brutal honesty of this journal. It must take a lot of courage to write your logs when you know you had a week like you did this week, so I sincerely applaud.
That being said, if you are doing stuff like shutting off your position monitor, etc, and doubling down and making mental mistakes, I think you should take the rest of the month off and take a mental breather.
You are on tilt, and you need a mental reboot. I'm not telling you to quit, since your record previous to this year speaks for itself, but you should really take breather, at least for a week or two. You seemed to be off your game, and rebooting might help you focus again.
The markets will always be there. Your account unfortunately might not if you keep at it like this.
jedwards great reply.
Neke, you should read again his post, maybe 3-4 times.
Good Luck.
Quote from heech:
Neke
I'm also suffering through a double digit percentile loss this week. Remember: what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Mondays a new week, learn your lesson and move on.
Neke, with all due respect it seems your trading has been negative expectancy for a while now. Why not size down until you find some consistency. It seems to me that your equity is doing exactly the opposite of what you want, going down. And it is going down consistently. Why not size down to very small position sizes until you find some consistency once again and build some confidence? Remember capital preservation is key and you are only pissing away money. I am not very clear on your trading system(s) but your equity curve is telling the story. Why not size down, put a band aid on the bleeding until you build some confidence? Good luck.
Neke,
Great journal from a reader point of view. Much respect for having the brass ones for maintaining it. I am going to make this a little bit quick because any typing is difficult lately.
I think it was Ed Seykota who said "everyone gets what they want out of trading" or something close to it. Well sir you are getting what YOU want out of trading and from someone watching this multi-month car crash it is plain as day.
It would appear that the reason you shut down your computer is that your not interested in making money but rather your interested in the action and the avoidance of immediate pain. Your trying to fight who you ARE and that is a fight you can not win. You do NOT need to change your rules you need to change what your thinking and why your thinking it.
You made the limit size rule for a reason and the reason I would guess is that from previous trades you found that this rule would save you money by limiting your loss. You did not follow this rule because it was "TOUGH" or hard mentally to do. Call me a liar if you can but I bet you can't. The reason getting out of the trade was hard at the proper time was your fighting against yourself and your mental frame of mind. How can you win a fight against others when you are busy fighting against yourself?? You can't and from the outside it is plan as day.
How many days have you taken off from trading this year that was by your choice? I bet not very many if any. Take Monday off if you want my advice. Disrupt your routine so that you can start to break the mental merry-go-round that your on. If you feel that you can not take a day off due to all the money you may be missing out on then you know for sure you need to take a day off by the way....
You may have stepped over and gone to the dark side but the good news is that you can from the next day you trade start making money. Ending higher or lower for the year makes NO difference and hopefully you can understand that. What ONLY matters is from THIS POINT forward in trading you do your best and that you make money. Once you trade with an edge and are profitable there is no need to worry about what you did yesterday as we all know profitable trading takes care of everything and as long as you have working capital the sky is the limit.
Get yourself a copy of Mark Douglas "Disciplined trader" and read it this weekend. It will start you on the right path. Next step is this is a must is to get the audio book "psycho cybernetics" by Dr. Maltz and Kennedy. anyone who is trading and has not listened and or read Dr. Maltz's book several times is leaving a lot of gains on the table.
Next step is get some MP3 to listen to about mental trading attitude to put you to sleep at night and learning breathing/relaxation techniques
The good news is you CAN fix this and you can end this year on a very good note. It is much better to have this type of problem then a problem that is hard to fix like your algo is no longer effective.(or think about all those specialists that were killed when ECNs showed up)
Best to you Neke and I know how you feel as I have made every mistake in the book and invented a few myself. It appears you have what it takes to make it so it is just a matter of if your willing to look inside to allow yourself to be as good as you can be.
RW
__________________
Robert Weinstein
"No other occupation that I know of makes the day go by so quickly or the weekend so slowly as trading."
Taking advice from Bobby W - that's gotta be a new low.
Some of you guys are simply just too nice.
This is like watching an addicted gambler throw his life away.
Neke, I'll be quick, you got no discipline, your strategy sucks, you constantly countertrend and enjoy adding to losers, which, no surprise makes you a loser.
Stop trading before you lose it all.
Sorry I was blunt I see no reason to cover the painful truth.
No Heat
Quote from heech:
Neke
I'm also suffering through a double digit percentile loss this week. Remember: what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Mondays a new week, learn your lesson and move on.
Insanity; doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Well, sad to see that your winning streak ended with a massive (~10%) loss, giving up roughly all of your gains over the previous three weeks.
You still have plenty of capital left. You really need to cut your size down until you get this worked out. Preserve capital, the first rule of trading.
You're honest with this thread which give you tremendous cred with the people that follow it. Now be honest with yourself. This system has failed. Go back to square one and when you're ready to trade with real capital start small until it proves itself worthy of more size.
Good luck.
This is painful to watch.
Many experienced and successful traders have given you good advice about stopping and you probably will also not listen to this advice.
Take out 90% from your account to protect yourself.
Quote from sheepsucker:
Take out 90% from your account to protect yourself.
__________________
Trade Less
what have you learned from the 19K mistake?
__________________
Trading equities for small guys is guerrilla warfare!
Quote from heech:
Neke
I'm also suffering through a double digit percentile loss this week. Remember: what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. Mondays a new week, learn your lesson and move on.
^ he started with over 400k, and you want him to trade on 10k or less? lol, thats a joke, if not insulting. A 10k account to neke might as well be zero.
Quote from konviction:
^ he started with over 400k, and you want him to trade on 10k or less? lol, thats a joke, if not insulting. A 10k account to neke might as well be zero.
__________________
Trade Less
Quote from Rashid_G.:
True.. but since he won't take the time needed off it's the next best option... 30k fine also. There is a VERY rewarding aspect of taking time off.. you find you CAN live on without trading. You cannot trade effectively when you cannot take time off.
I dont really know how neke trades because he doesnt give details, but its possible that the trading strategies that he once used to make good profits, are no longer suitable in this new market enviroment.
I'm sure Neke isnt the only one struggling to make the money they once were. Is it fair to say that he is gambling because he is down 40%? If he is not following his trading plan, they yes, he is gambling, but if he is sticking to his plan, then I think that he should get some props for that.
Quote from konviction:
Is it fair to say that he is gambling because he is down 40%? If he is not following his trading plan, they yes, he is gambling, but if he is sticking to his plan, then I think that he should get some props for that.
Quote from neke:
Then revenge set in as I placed an order to buy 1000 EQIX at 77. Got filled as the the stock crashed hard, and I decided not to get out but average in. My position monitor immediately closed out my trades that were above size, and instead of stopping, I decided to commit the unpardonable sin: remotely shut down my system, and then proceeded to average down until I had a size of more than 4K shares, four times the intended size. Watched helplessly, and eventually capitulated near the low of the day, losing 20K.
Gambling is a serious addiction.
When you set unrealistic goals you are setting yourself up for failure from the get go. Trying to turn your capital into a major return (410 to 4 mil) in one year is like the guy hoping to hit the lottery.The gambler hoping to get rich over night. Trying to hit the home run every week and taking such large positions is being done for the rush. ANY TRADER that doesn't first and foremost protect their capital and cut their losses is ultimately doomed. Averaging into losing positions in an attempt to recover failed broken bad trades instead of cutting your loses,, you are hoping for luck to correct your mistakes. That's the gambler at the roulette wheel.
There is so much wrong here.
And it's ALL examples of Gambling Addiction.
I and others have suggested you take some time off but you simply can't. I strongly suggest you speak to a professional about gambling addiction and have them explain it to you. But an addict won't do that till they hit rock bottom.
Good Luck Neke.
Quote from konviction:
I dont really know how neke trades because he doesnt give details, but its possible that the trading strategies that he once used to make good profits, are no longer suitable in this new market enviroment.
I'm sure Neke isnt the only one struggling to make the money they once were. Is it fair to say that he is gambling because he is down 40%? If he is not following his trading plan, they yes, he is gambling, but if he is sticking to his plan, then I think that he should get some props for that.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 39/50 ended 10/09/2010
Disastrous week, down 26K (10.8%). Another major set-back on my attempt to break out of this rut. New lows in confidence.
I did have some premonition on Monday when I reached a high of +5K in P/L intraday only to close up barely +1K. I thought I should be on guard the rest of the week. Unfortunately that message got lost in the heat of the battle. Got long LPS on Tues. Stock got halted just before I could get out at end of day, got out the following day, losing 6K on normal size. The total loss after that came to 9K via some other bad trades. Then revenge set in as I placed an order to buy 1000 EQIX at 77. Got filled as the the stock crashed hard, and I decided not to get out but average in. My position monitor immediately closed out my trades that were above size, and instead of stopping, I decided to commit the unpardonable sin: remotely shut down my system, and then proceeded to average down until I had a size of more than 4K shares, four times the intended size. Watched helplessly, and eventually capitulated near the low of the day, losing 20K.
Still wondering why I had to shut down my system. It was there to protect me, and so far I had been diligent not to exceed the size limit until Wed. I still want to believe this is one off, and I will be faithful to my size limits going forward. Sure it would still have been a losing week, but not by this much.
The ability to remotely shut-down the system was primarily for cases where the system is acting incorrectly, or on wrong market data, or extremely unexpected market scenarios (say May 6), not to override my position monitoring. I shall look at limiting this capabililty to only those defined scenarios.
code:
Opening Balance: 239,032 Net loss for the week -25,930 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 213,102 Number of Trades 21 Number of Profitable Trades 9 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 10/09/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 196,898 (Down 48%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 213,102 Number of Trades 1094 Number of Profitable Trades 583 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 11 2,305.30 5,216.40 -5,821.40 DISCR 10 -28,235.20 3,672.50 -19,846.60 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETIONARY TRADES TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE EQIX 2010-10-06-09-48-58 2010-10-06-13-21-44 7400 551095.9 531342.1 -19846.6 LONG (above is total qty traded, maximum position held was 4k shares)
I think you might have been better off trying to make 20 or 30% for the year and actually doing it or making 10 or 15% instead of risking swinging for the fences.
Looks like both your automated and discretionary systems don't work. I wonder what's different between what you backtested and what transpired?
Level 2 quotes may be wrong
Here is something to keep in mind ...If you are using TD Ameritrade the level 2 quotes may be wrong .. I lost over $100,000 only to find out that there is a known issue with the level 2 quotes being wrong . i.e he level 2 quotes are lagging the realtime by a few minutes . I have it all documented on my blog but if I post a link in here my account will be restricted ...If you are using Ameritrade and mounting all these losses it could be your level 2 quotes !
__________________
http://stockmarketloss.wordpress.com/
Weekly Update for week 40/50 ended 10/16/2010
Positive week, up 12.5K (5.9%). String of gains (13 of 16) added to make for some restoration in confidence.
Biggest gainer was picking up some GOOG calls after their earnings on FRI, which I closed for a 5.7K gain. Back to trading my pared down size, and watching like a hawk for any urge to violate the sizes. Did put in additional automated means to check excess size, and limited my ability to remotely shut down system.
I will not respond to every one commentary on my last week's loss, but to say taking time off does not cure anything. I have had enough time within the year to look at the issues (including vacations where there wasn't much beside automated trades), and while I recognize the principal reasons, addressing them is an ongoing endeavor.
What is the need taking two weeks off, to return and continue where I left off? If I am going to emerge out of this, it will be by addressing the issues one step at a time. A lot has already been built into my automation as additional aid to fixing the urge to average down. And yes, I believe I am making progress (in spite of all the doom-and-gloom forecasts. A measure of steadfastness will be the frequency of occurrence of violations.
As for having no edge, or this being a train wreck, I will only point out that, take out the first 8 weeks of the year (the losses of which are well known), the last 32 weeks have been somewhat flattish by comparison, hardly the weekly train wreck some posters want to present. If you have followed all my prior years' postings and results, you should have an idea of your own what is random and what is based on edge, I will not enter into argument with anyone on that: I know where I have come from over the years (say since 2005).
In addition it is interesting to observe so many posts that come from people that seem to have such mastery of themselves and their trading. It would be nice to have some real-life trading journals from these (yes I know a handful do post such).
code:
Opening Balance: 213,102 Net gain for the week 12,508 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 225,610 Number of Trades 16 Number of Profitable Trades 13 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 10/16/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 184,390 (Down 45%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 225,610 Number of Trades 1110 Number of Profitable Trades 596 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 7 545.20 2,393.70 -2,475.70 DISCR 9 11,962.30 5,700.10 -2,393.50
Quote from neke:
In addition it is interesting to observe so many posts that come from people that seem to have such mastery of themselves and their trading. It would be nice to have some real-life trading journals from these (yes I know a handful do post such).
] [/B]
Well done, Neke, keep it up.
If you made 12.5k EVERY week (for 52 weeks) from now on, you'd be up a nice 650 large. I've noticed that your losing weeks however, you are almost double that or more. A problem in deed. But congrats on this week, and knockem dead newxt week too!.
Dear neke,
I've been viewing ur journal on and off for a few years now, you're a dedicated and passionate trader. However I'd just like to make a few observations if i may.
1)You always seem to be swinging for the fences by risking a large portion of your a/c
Instead of this if you had risked 1-3% per trade from the inception of your trading career you might have been way ahead of what you are right now trying to swing for the fences.
2) You average down, this really is of course dependent on your strategy but more often than not it results in disaster somewhere down the line.
Hope you don't mind my comments I would like to add you are very honest and how should i say ..... courageous trader. These traits are hard to find now-a-days as most people on forums feign to be profitable.
Al the best to you.
fugly
Quote from fugly:
Dear neke,
I've been viewing ur journal on and off for a few years now, you're a dedicated and passionate trader. However I'd just like to make a few observations if i may.
1)You always seem to be swinging for the fences by risking a large portion of your a/c
Instead of this if you had risked 1-3% per trade from the inception of your trading career you might have been way ahead of what you are right now trying to swing for the fences.
2) You average down, this really is of course dependent on your strategy but more often than not it results in disaster somewhere down the line.
Hope you don't mind my comments I would like to add you are very honest and how should i say ..... courageous trader. These traits are hard to find now-a-days as most people on forums feign to be profitable.
Al the best to you.
fugly
In addition it is interesting to observe so many posts that come from people that seem to have such mastery of themselves and their trading. It would be nice to have some real-life trading journals from these (yes I know a handful do post such).
Quote from gambler2075:
but then they are more than made up by my swingtrade profits, such as this one...
Quote from NoDoji:
Wow, that is one scary chart from the time you opened the trade. If it hadn't let you out at a profit on 10/7, I'm curious what level of loss would you have taken?
Quote from gambler2075:
I knew they were extremely likely to release positive results, and I had done massive amounts of research to support that hypothesis. It was just a matter of when. I planned on waiting until that happened. Considering that I had 147,000 shares of SPEX I pretty much didn't have a choice, as the volume was too low otherwise.
Glad to see you made some of it back Neke. I still don't see the value in repeating the same trading style/methodology, but everyone has to find their own way in this business.
If you follow your usual pattern, you'll have several weeks of small winners now follow by another huge loss. Let's hope that's not the case. I agree that working on your risk control is a good place to start. I just think doing it with small dollars and share size would make a lot of sense until you're confident you have this worked out.
Good luck & nice job this week.
Quote from NoDoji:
SPEX being a penny stock, I'm sure your account could handle a failure. But look at ITMN, where a huge volume of "big money" bought into the gaps on 3/5 and 3/10 because they knew that 99.9% of the time when the majority of an FDA advisory panel recommends approval, the drug is approved by the FDA, only to find the stock price 30% below the pre-gap levels when the unthinkable happened in May. It dropped from a close of 45.44 to an open of 10.00 the next day. A $300K hit on a $400K position could be a tough one to take
Neke, it's not like I'm trying to discourage you from swing trading. I'm trying to encourage you to avoid swinging "sure thing" biotech stocks
Quote from gambler2075:
And it is also why anyone offering to teach their methods for a trivial fee (say, less than 50,000$) is either a fool, or does not have a working method. As I said before, I would teach my methods for a one day seminar price of 50,000$, mininum 5 people at a time. Anything less, is not worth it for me, and is giving away the golden goose at firesale prices.
i wouldn't sell...
$50k means they'd implement it. they'd be taking it seriously.
Quote from NoDoji:
Even if you give away a virtual Holy Grail of trading, it's quite unlikely anyone will follow the plan anyway.
Please let us know when you're coming out with your book. Your insights, performance and writing skills would make you an instant success as an Author. As I understand it, you keep copious notes and enjoy writing... It would be a natural fit!
btw... hopefully, you'll offer a nice discount to the ET family
Walt
Quote from NoDoji:
SPEX being a penny stock, I'm sure your account could handle a failure. But look at ITMN, where a huge volume of "big money" bought into the gaps on 3/5 and 3/10 because they knew that 99.9% of the time when the majority of an FDA advisory panel recommends approval, the drug is approved by the FDA, only to find the stock price 30% below the pre-gap levels when the unthinkable happened in May. It dropped from a close of 45.44 to an open of 10.00 the next day. A $300K hit on a $400K position could be a tough one to take
Neke, it's not like I'm trying to discourage you from swing trading. I'm trying to encourage you to avoid swinging "sure thing" biotech stocks
gambler: Your chart shows that you bought SPEX at 1.46 and sold at 2.5???
I am looking at SPEX chart from 8/17 to 10/7 I don't even see it pass 1.9. How did you sell at 2.5? May be I am looking at the wrong charts... was just curious that's all
Quote from jones247:
Please let us know when you're coming out with your book. Your insights, performance and writing skills would make you an instant success as an Author. As I understand it, you keep copious notes and enjoy writing... It would be a natural fit!
btw... hopefully, you'll offer a nice discount to the ET family
Walt
Quote from konviction:
That's what they were saying about the turtle trading system. You can give someone a million dollar system and they wont make money because they wont have the discipline to follow the rules, or trying to change something that's already perfect.
Quote from Onevoice:
gambler: Your chart shows that you bought SPEX at 1.46 and sold at 2.5???
I am looking at SPEX chart from 8/17 to 10/7 I don't even see it pass 1.9. How did you sell at 2.5? May be I am looking at the wrong charts... was just curious that's all
Quote from NoDoji:
SPEX being a penny stock, I'm sure your account could handle a failure. But look at ITMN, where a huge volume of "big money" bought into the gaps on 3/5 and 3/10 because they knew that 99.9% of the time when the majority of an FDA advisory panel recommends approval, the drug is approved by the FDA, only to find the stock price 30% below the pre-gap levels when the unthinkable happened in May. It dropped from a close of 45.44 to an open of 10.00 the next day. A $300K hit on a $400K position could be a tough one to take
Neke, it's not like I'm trying to discourage you from swing trading. I'm trying to encourage you to avoid swinging "sure thing" biotech stocks
__________________
You can do it!!
Quote from GG1972:
Other thing is lot of people dont ever factor "anything can happen" into their trading plan. What if there is another 9/11 during market hours or something else happens ? Would you be able to survive and trade another day ? One trade or even for that matter a series of trades should not define or shatter yr trading methodology.
25k per ES contract should be enough margin to survive a 9/11 type deal, this allows for 500 ES points against you. This should be plenty. You can also allocate a small % of your gains towards options to hedge.
Quote from NoDoji:
May 6th indeed gave me pause and I took time to consider the effect on my small trading account of holding a leveraged position during a serious event (such as a 9/11-type event or worse).
Weekly Update for week 41/50 ended 10/23/2010
Tremendous week, up 60K(27%). Giant leap in confidence..
The week was a continuation of the big earnings momentum that started last week with GOOG. This week some of the great momo stocks delivered earnings, and I was just playing long after earnings with options. So bullish was the market that even seeming disappointment from AAPL and AMZN were brushed aside. Every day of the week was positive in my account.
On Tue dabbled a little with AAPL calls in the morning, a mere 17 contracts, after it seemed obvious the market and the analysts brushed aside the weak IPAD sales. Brought when AAPL came down to just above 300 for $5.00 a car, closed when AAPL hit 308 half hour later, sold for $10.00. Thursday went long NFLX calls after their earnings, made 10K there (chased that a bit, since my limit order failed to fill in the early goings before the stock took off). Also caught the SPY dip at 2pm on Thurs, making 6K when the market rebounded (actual max position size was 100 contracts). Fri should have been spectacular had I got my limit hit on CMG and AMZN. Chased CMG afterwards, though decided to hedge a bit shorting RVBD (which I thought was more overbought). Made +25K on CMG and lost 12K on RVBD (covered near the high of the day). Refrained from chasing AMZN, that could have been great as well. Other than RVBD, the rest of the losses for the week were minimal.
Looking forward to good times.
code:
Opening Balance: 225,610 Net gain for the week 60,469 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 286,079 Number of Trades 21 Number of Profitable Trades 15 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 10/23/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 123,921 (Down 30%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 286,079 Number of Trades 1140 Number of Profitable Trades 610 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 3 -285.00 157.10 -427.30 -95.00 DISCR 18 60,754.40 25,462.90 -12,004.90 3,375.24 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETIONARY TRADES TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE CMGNOV202010195.0CALL 2010-10-22-10-33-22 2010-10-22-14-13-10 5000 39950 65500 25463 CMG CALL NFLXOCT222010165.0CALL 2010-10-21-09-38-55 2010-10-21-10-44-10 5500 38500 48950 10350 NFLX CALL AAPLOCT222010300.0CALL 2010-10-19-09-30-19 2010-10-19-10-01-59 1700 8500 16810 8267 AAPL CALL BIDUOCT222010100.0CALL 2010-10-22-09-30-08 2010-10-22-10-20-52 5000 32150 39012 6775 BIDU CALL SPYOCT222010115.0CALL 2010-10-21-14-00-04 2010-10-21-15-18-03 17000 42050 48313 5999 SPY CALL ------------------------------------------------- AAPL 2010-10-18-18-04-12 2010-10-19-09-08-19 250 75824 75041 -798 SHORT CREE 2010-10-19-16-33-51 2010-10-20-09-42-15 2000 97800 96000 -1816 SHORT RVBD 2010-10-22-10-44-44 2010-10-22-13-23-35 9000 498568 486614 -12005 SHORT
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 41/50 ended 10/23/2010
Tremendous week, up 60K(27%). Giant leap in confidence..
Holy crap, nice job!
g
Well done, Neke, give them hell.
(One question, though, did you really short half a million in RVBD? Was that within your size parameters?)
Awesome week !!!! Congrats neke
Quote from neke:
Fri should have been spectacular had I got my limit hit on CMG
Shazam! Earnings season is where it's at. Well done.
Quote from NoDoji:
Ha ha! My music is first on my project list, been putting it off waaaay too long. There are too many trading books and I believe Al Brooks said there's no money in it.
"Also caught the SPY dip at 2pm on Thurs, making 6K when the market rebounded (actual max position size was 100 contracts)."
So that's the equivalent of $12 million in spy. It's pretty clear that neke is a buy the dip trader with massive options positions . . . when the dips get bot, he does well. When the don't he gets slammed and is faced with a "should I double down" choice.
Quote from billyjoerob:
"Also caught the SPY dip at 2pm on Thurs, making 6K when the market rebounded (actual max position size was 100 contracts)."
So that's the equivalent of $12 million in spy. It's pretty clear that neke is a buy the dip trader with massive options positions . . . when the dips get bot, he does well. When the don't he gets slammed and is faced with a "should I double down" choice.
Right.
You had a great week, happy for you.
However, let's not derail from reality, look at your yearly curve, it sucks.
Now take what you can now and reduce size before you lose more, including what you made this week.
__________________
Nexen
Daytrader not paper
Quote from Nexen:
Now take what you can now and reduce size before you lose more, including what you made this week.
bears make money .. bulls make money.... chickens become.. parts is parts
Quote from Nexen:
You had a great week, happy for you.
However, let's not derail from reality, look at your yearly curve, it sucks.
Now take what you can now and reduce size before you lose more, including what you made this week.
__________________
Trade Less
Quote from NoDoji:
The survivors in this game reduce size when losing and increase size when winning. The average trader increases size when losing and cuts winners short.
__________________
Nexen
Daytrader not paper
Someone posted something gone for whatever reason.. anyway the point is for the emotional types public journals are the demon. The cheering on good weeks and opposite on down weeks really eggs on the trader precisely when they should be level headed..
THE most important question for Neke to answer is:
"What did I do last week and can it be repeated consistently?"
__________________
Trade Less
Quote from Rashid_G.:
THE most important question for Neke to answer is:
"What did I do last week and can it be repeated consistently?"
Quote from NoDoji:
What he did last week based on the trades he posted here:
A) Several big winners trading with the trend (buying strong stocks and buy a dip in a strong market).
B) A big loser fighting the trend (shorting a strongly uptrending stock that gapped up even more on great news).
Do more "A" and stop doing "B"
Quote from Nine_Ender:
It looks to me like he invested 65% of his remaining funds in high risk options positions on volatile stocks.
Neke,
I have been following your journal with 'great' interest- never posted before. I also read your previous year's journal end to end.
Good comeback this week. Just a word of caution for the coming week though (strictly from my personal experience) - Many times, I have had big losses (40-50k) after hitting big gains (40-60k) - simply because I became complacent OR I risked more than I should have (with short term pump in confidence). After, I put in stricter MM in place, I was able to control this urge, and I started having positive days/week following a big day/week.
You have enough experience trading - so I am pretty sure you would have experienced this phenomena first hand in past. But still I am writing it hoping I can offer my cautionary wisdom so that you don't lose a lot this coming week - rather a more 'level-headed' trading will let your bull run continue!
Other than that, nothing much to add. Keep up the good work!
__________________
-D
Quote from traderhf:
Neke,
I have been following your journal with 'great' interest- never posted before. I also read your previous year's journal end to end.
Good comeback this week. Just a word of caution for the coming week though (strictly from my personal experience) - Many times, I have had big losses (40-50k) after hitting big gains (40-60k) - simply because I became complacent OR I risked more than I should have (with short term pump in confidence). After, I put in stricter MM in place, I was able to control this urge, and I started having positive days/week following a big day/week.
You have enough experience trading - so I am pretty sure you would have experienced this phenomena first hand in past. But still I am writing it hoping I can offer my cautionary wisdom so that you don't lose a lot this coming week - rather a more 'level-headed' trading will let your bull run continue!
Other than that, nothing much to add. Keep up the good work!
Quote from Picaso:
(One question, though, did you really short half a million in RVBD? Was that within your size parameters?)
Quote from Nexen:
Now take what you can now and reduce size before you lose more, including what you made this week.
Quote from lurefo:
Greg disagrees with you... "Bet MORE!"
starts at 7:57
Quote from neke:
Really? Did you see the date/timestamps on the trades? So if in the course of a year you've traded shares worth $100million on your $100K account, that means you've been levered 1000:1? Awful analysis.
Quote from neke:
The rational for RVBD as explained was that I was trying to "hedge" my position in CMG. I thought it was Friday, both are up huge on euphoria surrounding earnings beat, and anything could happen (market might change its mood) before close. Of the two I thought RVBD was more succeptible to a sell-off than CMG (based on several considerations).
Hi Neke,
Do you continue to focus on strategy? Meaning do you analyze which trades resulted in gains/losses because you read the conditions correctly/incorrectly and which trades' gains/losses resulted from conditions that were unpredictable? I would think you would want to focus on why things happen the way they do so that you can make more accurate predictions (trades).
It seems like you might be a little too focused on results. Just because you made a lot of money in a week doesn't mean it was a good week. If you got lucky but your reasoning turned out to be incorrect, you should be upset and try to focus on the errors in your logic. If you lost money but you believe your rationale for your decisions was correct you should be happy because you know that by repeating that performance you will make money in the long run. If you are focused on developing your skills as a trader I would expect to read more posts mentioning trades because of the quality or lack there of, of your decision making, not because it was a big gain or loss. Basically a way of telling that you are focusing on the right things is are you enjoying the challenges of trading and feeling rewareded from that alone or are you focused on the results?
There is a lot of talk from other posters about your risk level. I think for a while you clearly laid out how risky you were going to be and followed that plan. But when you started losing money you reduced your risk level because of outside factors, factors other than trading logic. If your not comfortable with your risk level anymore, then that is a smart thing to do. But I do think your original plan of risk was rational, very ballsy, but rational. If you follow through on your risk tolerance and focus on rational decision making and continue to learn then I believe you will see excellent results.
One other note, I can't remember what you said your largest expected drawdown would be given your risk tolerance but it was a very large percent. If you keep trading over many years you can expect to see that drawdown many times. I'm not sure after your reaction this time around if you chose the correct risk level for yourself (or if your risk tolerance shrinks as your account grows). The good news is if you continue to improve your skills as a trader then that drawdown amount will drop (as long as you don't increase your risk).
Weekly Update for week 42/50 ended 10/30/2010
Moderately positive week, up 7K (2.5%).
Earnings season brought a lot of activity. Unfortunately the pattern was for me to start each day with a good winner only to enter a dumb trade later that practically wipes out the earlier gains for the day. Need to remind myself to be cautious and do my due diligence before leaping on a trade.
Looking forward to next week.
code:
Opening Balance: 286,079 Net gain for the week 7,030 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 293,109 Number of Trades 37 Number of Profitable Trades 23 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 10/30/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 116,891 (Down 28%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 293,109 Number of Trades 1177 Number of Profitable Trades 633 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 8 -5,029.40 1,260.40 -4,035.10 DISCR 29 12,058.80 10,703.70 -15,451.40
Quote from ifue:
Hi Neke,
Do you continue to focus on strategy? Meaning do you analyze which trades resulted in gains/losses because you read the conditions correctly/incorrectly and which trades' gains/losses resulted from conditions that were unpredictable? I would think you would want to focus on why things happen the way they do so that you can make more accurate predictions (trades).
It seems like you might be a little too focused on results. Just because you made a lot of money in a week doesn't mean it was a good week. If you got lucky but your reasoning turned out to be incorrect, you should be upset and try to focus on the errors in your logic. If you lost money but you believe your rationale for your decisions was correct you should be happy because you know that by repeating that performance you will make money in the long run. If you are focused on developing your skills as a trader I would expect to read more posts mentioning trades because of the quality or lack there of, of your decision making, not because it was a big gain or loss. Basically a way of telling that you are focusing on the right things is are you enjoying the challenges of trading and feeling rewareded from that alone or are you focused on the results?
There is a lot of talk from other posters about your risk level. I think for a while you clearly laid out how risky you were going to be and followed that plan. But when you started losing money you reduced your risk level because of outside factors, factors other than trading logic. If your not comfortable with your risk level anymore, then that is a smart thing to do. But I do think your original plan of risk was rational, very ballsy, but rational. If you follow through on your risk tolerance and focus on rational decision making and continue to learn then I believe you will see excellent results.
One other note, I can't remember what you said your largest expected drawdown would be given your risk tolerance but it was a very large percent. If you keep trading over many years you can expect to see that drawdown many times. I'm not sure after your reaction this time around if you chose the correct risk level for yourself (or if your risk tolerance shrinks as your account grows). The good news is if you continue to improve your skills as a trader then that drawdown amount will drop (as long as you don't increase your risk).
Congrats !!!! very nice continuation of last week !!
Weekly Update for week 43/50 ended 11/06/2010
Positive week, up 10K (3.4%).
Lots of offsetting action for the most part this week on my discretionary trades, until Thur when I lost 12K shorting (SPY PUTs) the market. IF there ever was a day not to fight the Fed, it should have been Thur. That was unfortunate. Good thing I resisted the urge to average down (and my position monitor was on the alert). Made up much of that loss with short trades on Fri on some over-extended rallies. My automated trades came to the rescue big time, netting 12K for the week.
code:
Opening Balance: 293,109 Net gain for the week 10,107 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 303,216 Number of Trades 23 Number of Profitable Trades 16 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 11/06/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 106,784 (Down 26%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 303,216 Number of Trades 1200 Number of Profitable Trades 649 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 5 12,731.20 7,076.00 0.00 DISCR 18 -2,303.00 5,267.70 -11,690.40
Congrats!! Awesome recovery you've made in the last 3 weeks! Keep it going!
Quote from jedwards:
Congrats!! Awesome recovery you've made in the last 3 weeks! Keep it going!
Neke you've had a nice couple weeks. Congrats. Just please don't give it back when/if this market pulls back.
Quote from gettinglucky:
Hardly what I call a recovery... When he/she? breaks even, that will be the beginning uv recovery sonny...
Quote from jedwards:
That's a dumb comment. A few weeks ago he had a self-admitted meltdown after many weeks of losses, and in the last 3 weeks he's made some great gains. I would call that a recovery. He doesn't have to wait till break even to celebrate his victories. He has already acknowledged the first 8 weeks were rough, and he's moved on like any good trader would.
this post and the one you quoted outway all the lost ranters making this a good journal, nice work neke, hope to see you stay on course
Quote from neke:
Thanks for your comment (Was curious when I saw you've posted just twice since registering in May 2009, checked your other post, and voila it was in last year's thread). This journal basically gives the result of my trading, with rough sketches of the trades I do. The intention is not to bring a crowd reading my mind and doing exactly what I would do. Beside this journal, I keep meticulous record of my trades, and classified by strategies (at last count there are more than 30 such classifications traded this year). Yes I do drill down and know the ones that are making it and he ones that are losing, and above all the losses I have incurred as a result of not sticking to plan - those I can't really blame on strategy. I know (have always known) the big obstacle to greater gains is myself (which is why at various times I have considered doing only autoamted, which up till now is still not there - too many variables within my discretion I could never put into a program).
For the prior year, I laid out my expectation that maximum drawdown should not exceed 40%. I think that is still a realistic drawdown given my risk tolerance, but the truth is that much of my drawdown is not due to strategy faithfully implemented, but rather personal issues (averaging down, revenge trading etc). My intention still remains to bring the personal issues under check, and execute faithfully the strategies, and the results will follow.
Weekly Update for week 44/50 ended 11/13/2010
Positive week, up 12K (4%). Delighted to have the first 5-week winning streak in a year. New highs for the year excluding the first week. Now can say, "had it not been for the loss of the BIDU trade on week 1 (-102K), I should be positive for the year".
Was quite a roller-coaster, with some big losses, which were more than taken care of by the big win rate in my discretionary trades. Started the week with a gain of about 9K on Monday. Suffered terribly on Tue with the sell-off. First bought PCLN calls at the wrong moment (waited for it to get to my limit in early trade, when it did not, chased it and bought near the high. Paid for it selling when the stock retraced for a loss of 11K. Then entered SPY calls on the dip, again lost 8K there with the market sell-off. Wed provided reprieve buying the market (SPY call) and a few stocks on the morning dip. Closed the day with gains of 20K. Thur and Fri were slower with the gains/losses.
code:
Opening Balance: 303,216 Net gain for the week 12,119 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 315,335 Number of Trades 24 Number of Profitable Trades 17 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 11/13/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 94,665 (Down 23%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 315,335 Number of Trades 1224 Number of Profitable Trades 666 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 5 -4,130.70 2,951.40 -7,513.60 DISCR 19 15,920.50 8,129.00 -11,634.20
Nice work
Yes...well done...stay focused on what you are doing and be patient...
NiN
Neke, congrats on your 5th winning week in a row.
Just take it easy on the size and don't chase.
Good luck/skill.
Where are all the haters at now? The ones that think they can have a smooth equity curve like madoff. Good job Neke, you are one the best traders on this site and I when you you hit that 1 million dollar mark next year, the guys on this site will still be trying to get their smooth madoff equity curve with no drawdowns.
neke,
what is your average position in options? How many contracts per clip?
Quote from jedwards:
That's a dumb comment. A few weeks ago he had a self-admitted meltdown after many weeks of losses, and in the last 3 weeks he's made some great gains. I would call that a recovery. He doesn't have to wait till break even to celebrate his victories. He has already acknowledged the first 8 weeks were rough, and he's moved on like any good trader would.
Quote from jajuanm2:
Where are all the haters at now? The ones that think they can have a smooth equity curve like madoff. Good job Neke, you are one the best traders on this site and I when you you hit that 1 million dollar mark next year, the guys on this site will still be trying to get their smooth madoff equity curve with no drawdowns.
I been following Neke for 4 years or so, and he is the real deal. He had the one really bad week this year that put him down 100k. Outside of that, he is probably the best trader on this site. Again I don't count the guys going for the smooth madoff equity curves for income, I'm just looking at guys like Neke that are trading for wealth.
Quote from Nine_Ender:
Reading the thread there is no way to agree with this opinion.
Was he a brutally bad trader at times earlier this year ? Most definately yes. Has Neke reformed ? We shall see. It's hard to evaluate his new strategies short term given the obvious huge swings this style can bring.
Neke has his own agenda and only he knows the resources available and risk factor he can handle. What we wouldn't want to see would be people emulating his style who can't afford high risk moves.
If you think he's one of the best traders on here you aren't paying attention. What I see is someone with a wad of cash and a trading hobby. Sometimes a wad of cash can overcome some inefficiencies as a trader, provided he doesn't double/triple/... down on high risk trades.
If you are not trading for money then you shouldn't be trading at all.
Outside of that, he is probably the best trader on this site.
Quote from jajuanm2:
he is probably the best trader on this site.
Quote from jajuanm2:
. Good job Neke, you are one the best traders on this site ....
good comeback Neke. Take a breather, the market is at a crucial point with many leaders reversing lower in higher volume. I think market corrects 5% from here and resumes higher into year end
You can't say that the BIDU losses were an aberration . . . when you take massive options positions on volatile stocks, it's part of the plan.
Quote from charlied:
good comeback Neke. Take a breather, the market is at a crucial point with many leaders reversing lower in higher volume. I think market corrects 5% from here and resumes higher into year end
Neke has the mental make up of a trader and not an analyst like most on this site. Having the mindset to handle drawdown and to battle back is not found in many traders, that's why I said he is probably the best trader on this site. I'm sure there are much better analyst on this site, but I was just looking at his mindset.
Quote from forsalenyc:
take nothing away from neke...he's a fine trader.....and he's on a roll. but you are only showing off your ignorance with comments like that LOL
Weekly Update for week 45/50 ended 11/19/2010
Another positive week, up 15K (4.9%).
Was mostly a week of caution. Made some 4K gain Monday, lost 8K on Tue with the market sell-off as I was mostly long. Refrained from trading Wed/Thur partly from lack of opportunities and partly because of lack of time (too busy in my office). Finally nailed it on Fri mostly with CRM, buying the CALL on the first pull-back today.
Surprisingly my automation made no trades as well.
code:
Opening Balance: 315,335 Net gain for the week 15,385 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 330,720 Number of Trades 10 Number of Profitable Trades 6 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 11/19/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 79,280 (Down 19%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 330,720 Number of Trades 1234 Number of Profitable Trades 672 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser DISCR 10 15,356.70 13,111.60 -5,861.00 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETIONARY TRADES TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE CRMNOV202010130.0CALL 2010-11-19-10-12-04 2010-11-19-14-57-45 5000 11452 24650 13112 CRM CALL -------------------------------------------------------- SPYNOV202010117.0CALL 2010-11-16-09-52-20 2010-11-16-11-30-20 10000 25489 19600 -5861 SPY CALL
Way to go, Neke, keep it up!
Neke, in your opinion, what do you think changed in the last 6 weeks or so? You spent much of the year going back and forth and taking a string of losses just before your dramatic turn around.
In your view, what do you think has lead to this recovery? Was it a change in strategy, tighter discipline in terms of the trades you are taking, the markets changing to suit your trading style, or maybe something else?
Where all the haters at? lol. Great job neke!.
Quote from konviction:
Where all the haters at? lol. Great job neke!.
Sounds like you only started following Neke this year. Go back and look at his journals for the last 4 years and you will see that he is up!1 He started with around 20k. Also you will see that he always has bad first half of the year and does well at the end. I think it might be related to him being busy at work the first half of the year and not as much time to focus on trading.
Quote from Nine_Ender:
It could be that a trainwreck gathers more attention then just some trader that lost 19% this year ( with indexes up 10%-15% ). And someone aiming for 1000% return will more often be a trainwreck then a success.
Seriously now your premise is silly it is true people hate losing money so there will be "haters" when someone advocates a trading system that loses money.
There is some recent evidance that Neke's strategy may be evolving for the better due to the critics on this site ( how's that for irony ). But I'm not sure yet. We've just come off two months of the very best trading environment for a hyper-aggressive trading style ( one directional bull move ). I'm sure there are some options traders out there who made 1000% return in two months. But we really should understand the risk elements in play.
Quote from jajuanm2:
Sounds like you only started following Neke this year. Go back and look at his journals for the last 4 years and you will see that he is up!1 He started with around 20k. Also you will see that he always has bad first half of the year and does well at the end. I think it might be related to him being busy at work the first half of the year and not as much time to focus on trading.
Good points man. However everyone's risk tolerance is different. It also depends on the % of your net worth you are trading with. Neke has full time job, so I think he is trading for wealth and not income. He stated when he started that we was ok with 40-50% drawdowns in order to reach his wealth target. I think if he was trading for 20% profit a year then he would adjust for only 5-10% drawdown. Not many people have the smooth maddoff equity curve... if they did they could just keep adding leverage and be the richest guy in the world within a year or two. Nine_Ender, thanks for bringing up some good points without out the crazy name calling you see on this site. Good to debate things and understand that everyone's beliefs and experiences are different and that makes each person unique and special.
Quote from Nine_Ender:
Ok, I looked back at some old Journals. What I noted was at one point his account had around 90k in it, but using margin I guess he took on 2 trades that had around 90k cost. This is a luxury that only someone who could afford to lose the whole account literally within days can take.
I am reminded how Donald Trump built a financial empire twice, at one point the market turned on him and he was under water.
Money often makes money, size helps, but even size can't protect you from unusual events unless you keep a good risk management system in place.
Quote from neke:
[B]Finally nailed it on Fri mostly with CRM, buying the CALL on the first pull-back today.
Quote from jedwards:
Neke, in your opinion, what do you think changed in the last 6 weeks or so? You spent much of the year going back and forth and taking a string of losses just before
your dramatic turn around.
In your view, what do you think has lead to this recovery? Was it a change in strategy, tighter discipline in terms of the trades you are taking, the markets changing
to suit your trading style, or maybe something else?
Quote from jajuanm2:
Sounds like you only started following Neke this year. Go back and look at his journals for the last 4 years and you will see that he is up!1 He started with around 20k. Also you will see that he always has bad first half of the year and does well at the end. I think it might be related to him being busy at work the first half of the year and not as much time to focus on trading.
Quote from leonarda:
I just looked at these. 4 years, started at 91K in Jan 2007, and he is now at 330K, sounds not too bad, that is an annual return of 38%, which is good in these times. However, 38% annually, with drawdowns of 40-50% is not ideal! If he stops "averaging down" he should improve though.
My preference in trading is low risk position trading with the primary trend, 1-3 month timeframe trades. Made 45% this year with a 12% max drawdown.
With options too, or just stocks, futures?
Quote from leonarda:
I just looked at these. 4 years, started at 91K in Jan 2007, and he is now at 330K, sounds not too bad, that is an annual return of 38%, which is good in these times. However, 38% annually, with drawdowns of 40-50% is not ideal! If he stops "averaging down" he should improve though.
My preference in trading is low risk position trading with the primary trend, 1-3 month timeframe trades. Made 45% this year with a 12% max drawdown.
__________________
Lojze
Quote from lojze:
With options too, or just stocks, futures?
Neke trades a lot with options, where is easier to make big percentages, right?
Quote from leonarda:
stocks, but you're right it's not about me
if Neke keeps off the averaging down he should recover nicely.
__________________
Lojze
Quote from leonarda:
I just looked at these. 4 years, started at 91K in Jan 2007, and he is now at 330K, sounds not too bad, that is an annual return of 38%, which is good in these times. However, 38% annually, with drawdowns of 40-50% is not ideal! If he stops "averaging down" he should improve though.
Quote from neke:
Does your calculation pay attention to cash withdrawals (over 400K during that time period)? Simply checking opening and closing balance does not give you a P&L figure, does it ?
Official trading education
Neke, do you have any official trading education? At least for options?
__________________
Lojze
Hello Neke,
I read this entire thread over the weekend and there is some great advice here. When I read your posts I am reminded of the words, "it's a young man's game" which I heard many years ago when I began my trading career. I went broke trading the way you do. Like you I started with a ridiculously small amount of money and ran it up to a respectable sum. I suffered drawdowns like you did in January and as I got older I was less fit to withstand them psychologically. They were my undoing.
From what I can see even if you make a full recovery you will always be prone to the disasters you faced with the Bidu call trade earlier this year when you pursue this trading style. That is what happens with your discretionary style. You handle it better then most so far. I wish you the best and I look forward to reading your future posts.
the money is there waiting for you,some of it is at the top of mt aetna,inside the volcano, but it's there, some 300 ft under water,both are high risk ,high reward sums, some of it is just sitting there on a park bench,smaller amount, but just sitting there,bidu is high risk money....higher the risk, higher the reward, it's always a question of how much risk
Moderately positive week, up 4.5K (1.4%).
Still not a lot moving, just snapping up SPY CALL on the pull-back here and there, gaining some here, losing some there. My automation again found nothing interesting, the couple of times it should have picked some shorts, the stocks were unavailable to short.
code:
Opening Balance: 330,720 Net gain for the week 4,513 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 335,233 Number of Trades 9 Number of Profitable Trades 6 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 11/26/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 74,767 (Down 18%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 335,233 Number of Trades 1243 Number of Profitable Trades 678 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser DISCR 9 4,513.00 3,479.30 -4,562.60
neke congrats on a good week! I noticed your auto trades seem to be falling off. Any chance you're going to rework them a bit?
Weekly Update for week 47/50 ended 12/04/2010
Negative week, down 10K (3%).
The good win ratio should have meant a positive week but for some nasty beatings in NFLX and the SPY. Lost 16K on Tues trying to call a short-term top on NFLX soon after it rocketed above 200. Got 75 DEC18 200 PUTs @ 8.80. The stock refused to go down, and cost me 16K by end of day. Didn't stay long enough; those options are worth 17.00 now. Will probably look further into possibility of doing some swing trades when opportunities arise. Lost 10K on SPY puts Thursday.
code:
Opening Balance: 335,233 Net gain for the week 10,263 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 324,979 Number of Trades 16 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 12/04/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 85,030 (Down 21%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 335,233 Number of Trades 1259 Number of Profitable Trades 689 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 1 2,127.90 2,127.90 0.00 DISCR 15 -12,075.40 5,114.60 -15,796.60 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETIONARY TRADES TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE --------------------------- SPYDEC031210124.0PUT 2010-12-02-10-04-17 2010-12-02-15-48-39 17000 36220 25670 -10792.4 SPY PUT NFLXDEC181210200.0PUT 2010-11-30-10-24-00 2010-11-30-15-29-24 8500 74900 59250 -15796.6 NFLX PUT
"net gain" should read "net loss" in the table.
you had several very good weeks recently. the way you trade it is easy to get complacent and try to b/e for the year gaining 85K. just be careful.
Weekly Update for week 48/50 ended 12/11/2010
Great week, up 26K (8%). Very few trades, but great win rate (just one losing trade - an automated one losing $886).
Big winner was LULU which I accumulated from pre-market on Thur starting @ 61.70, closing later @ 65.30 avg.
code:
Opening Balance: 324,979 Net gain for the week 26,297 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 351,276 Number of Trades 7 Number of Profitable Trades 6 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 12/11/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 58,724 (Down 14%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 351,276 Number of Trades 1266 Number of Profitable Trades 694 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 2 671.80 1,557.40 -885.60 DISCR 5 25,307.90 13,539.70 0.00 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETIONARY TRADES TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE LULU 2010-12-09-09-22-41 2010-12-09-11-33-51 4700 293310 306883 13540 LONG ----------------------------------------------------------
Quote from shortie:
"net gain" should read "net loss" in the table.
Neke you're making a great come back. That loss in NFLX last week was tough, but that stock has been a widow maker for a while now especially this week with the add to the S&P 500 squeezing shorts.
You've shown the ability to grind it out this year even when many, including myself, were advising you to pull the ripcord.
Well done
Congrats, Neke, awesome comeback. Particularly good to see no large loser this week. Go get'em!
Nice Neke!!! Haters just don't come around that much now.
Why does anyone read this thread and then ask the guy questions?
Why the "hater" bashing?
__________________
www.rapacapintro.com
Do u know that your thread, and also journal of Lescor, and Weinstein provide the best inspiration for us traders, though a pity that Nodoji had stopped hers, pls continue your great comeback, it really require lots of determination and patience to rebound from yor bidu loss, great job
Quote from neke:
Big winner was LULU which I accumulated from pre-market on Thur starting @ 61.70, closing later @ 65.30 avg.
Quote from NoDoji:
Neke, you wily trend-follower. How come you're doing what the HERD is doing? Haven't you been following all the experts on ET who insist that only us dumb retail losing traders do what the HERD is doing. Well, here's to some more "dumb" trading next week
Weekly Update for week 49/50 ended 12/18/2010
Horrible week, down 35K (10%). Nothing going for me this week.
Worst loser was V on Thursday. Not sure why my automation picked it up in spite of other metrics that should have suggested it should avoid buying the dip, and that with a doubled size. One more shortened week, and this year will be over for me.
code:
Opening Balance: 351,276 Net loss for the week 34,913 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 316,363 Number of Trades 16 Number of Profitable Trades 7 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 12/18/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 93,637 (Down 23%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 316,363 Number of Trades 1282 Number of Profitable Trades 701 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 3 -14,848.60 3,736.90 -18,259.20 DISCR 13 -20,064.80 7,841.20 -9,875.20 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETIONARY TRADES TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE ---------------------------------------------------------- V 2010-12-16-14-25-48 2010-12-16-15-47-19 3597 263580 245346 -18259 LONG
neke...take december off this next year...Can we have another journal?
ES
V is really scary that day I saw it, droppin by the dollar
Xmas coming, u can start a new thread next year?
Position size - scaling in and out
Hi,
As we approach year end, in the basence of any major follow thru trends, best to adopt a trading range and reversion to mean strategy.
Position size impt - I see a isgnificant move into first -second week Jan 2011.
Wishing one and all a merry xmas....
Cheers, temujuin
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 49/50 ended 12/18/2010
Horrible week, down 35K (10%). Nothing going for me this week.
Worst loser was V on Thursday. Not sure why my automation picked it up in spite of other metrics that should have suggested it should avoid buying the dip, and that with a doubled size. One more shortened week, and this year will be over for me.
code:
Opening Balance: 351,276 Net loss for the week 34,913 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 316,363 Number of Trades 16 Number of Profitable Trades 7 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 12/18/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 93,637 (Down 23%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 316,363 Number of Trades 1282 Number of Profitable Trades 701 BREAK-DOWN BY AUTOMATED/DISCRETIONARY Number P/L Best Gainer Worst Loser AUTO 3 -14,848.60 3,736.90 -18,259.20 DISCR 13 -20,064.80 7,841.20 -9,875.20 TOP/BOTTOM DISCRETIONARY TRADES TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE ---------------------------------------------------------- V 2010-12-16-14-25-48 2010-12-16-15-47-19 3597 263580 245346 -18259 LONG
Not bad Neke. Just move on to the next week.
bummer week...the market is screwy right now (in my view)...that V move was especially screwy. I don't see how you can run automated trades on something being moved by a significant news event.
Quote from ElectricSavant:
neke...take december off this next year...Can we have another journal?
ES
TAKE DECEMBER'S OFF
Quote from neke:
Yes, I plan to start another. Don't like giving up at the lows. Hopefully should be a better year next.
Quote from neke:
Yes, I plan to start another. Don't like giving up at the lows. Hopefully should be a better year next.
Quote from neke:
Yes, I plan to start another. Don't like giving up at the lows. Hopefully should be a better year next.
Quote from neke:
Yes, I plan to start another. Don't like giving up at the lows. Hopefully should be a better year next.
Quote from lurefo:
Fuck, how many times I've said that... Good luck man. Good luck and good new year to the all struggling traders out there.
Good job this year Neke!. I was a bit worried about you, but you made a nice come back. Best of luck in 2011, and I'll be following your next journal for sure. No lie, sometimes I login just to check your journal every friday. Your subborn as a mule, LOL, but gawd damn, you can run with the best of'em.
Weekly Update for final week 50/50 ended 12/23/2010
Moderately positive week, up 3K (1%).
A little of a dragging 3 days. Closing shop for the holidays now. Going out of town for the next two weeks, and should be back sometime in the new year to start a new thread.
A bad year it was, but glad it could have ended worse.
Merry Xmas all and looking forward to a happy new year.
code:
Opening Balance: 316,363 Net gain for the week 3,077 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 319,440 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2010 - 12/24/2010 Opening Balance: 410,000 Net loss(Less Margin Interest) 90,560 (Down 22%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 319,440
Well done, Neke, that was an impressive comeback.
All the best for 2011!
Merry Christmas, neke. I think there's a special corner of heaven reserved for honest people who risk their money day in and day out given the hellish situations that have to be endured at times. 2011 or bust!
Merry Xmas neke, I sure enjoy your thread. Good luck next year, enjoy the time with your family.
Hi neke,
read through well the start middle and end of your log and just wanted to say it's been a great read.
Totally happens to me, revenge trading, big risk taking, betting the whole house.
The emotional rollercoaster.
[quote=neke]The pain goes away with time, and then guess what -- when I have forgotten the pain that's when the next happens. I am unlikely to repeat this next week. I will try and steady the ship and automate while watching the pain reduce. Thursday afternoon/night was too sore for me.[/quote]
Totally agree with this too. The next big loss comes when least expected. And then all the "hating" in your head comes.
Thanks for journalling and I sense the breaking through during middle of the year the slower wins but more steady returns. Able to deal with losses better.
I've yet to make my own breakthrough but it's great to read someone who has.
All the best for 2011 Neke. And yes. make those big bold targets. Because i quote the SAS(which not many people can handle;aka weaklings) "Who dares wins"
It's like people on the internet. so many of them, but who can become SAS.
and there was this terrible poster Pension_Admin. if he's a dad, he's the worst kind of dad. the one who when you make a mistake jumps all over you and slams and lambasts you. but when you do right he's blind. and he has faded away too. internet is full of these idiots.
but thank god you've been strong. somehow pulling through the dark ages in the cellar.
all the best 2011 neke!
i know this is my first post but i only just discovered this!
__________________
Respect, Humility & Gratitude
Neke,
Great thread, I've been following it for a while !
I had a question for you, on your 12-17-2010 post, you said you bought $263580 worth of V and sold it for an $18k lost an hour and 20 min later.
When I looked up the prices for V for the time that it was bought at though, if you bought $263k of V at the times you did, you would have lost at least $25K and not $18k.
Do you know why the times / amounts are off ? Thanks
Many wanna be/fake traders on ET. Very hard to spot them too. However, the only legit one seems to be neke.
GJ for 2010!
I agree, gettinglucky007 , I think Neke is a legit trader. I was just curious, so I thought I'd ask. Its just a question, for all I know, he could change the times on purpose to guard his strategy (which is understandable).
Quote from zanek:
Neke,
Great thread, I've been following it for a while !
I had a question for you, on your 12-17-2010 post, you said you bought $263580 worth of V and sold it for an $18k lost an hour and 20 min later.
When I looked up the prices for V for the time that it was bought at though, if you bought $263k of V at the times you did, you would have lost at least $25K and not $18k.
Do you know why the times / amounts are off ? Thanks
code:
12/16/2010 14:25:48 Bought 1597 V @ 75.13 -119,989.61 -223,009.87 12/16/2010 14:49:59 Bought 400 V @ 71.775 -28,717.00 -251,726.87 12/16/2010 14:49:59 Bought 900 V @ 71.7922 -64,613.00 -316,339.87 12/16/2010 14:49:59 Bought 700 V @ 71.82 -50,274.00 -366,613.87 12/16/2010 15:47:19 Sold 624 V @ 68.261 42,587.14 113,066.50 12/16/2010 15:47:19 Sold 200 V @ 68.23 13,645.76 126,712.26 12/16/2010 15:47:19 Sold 900 V @ 68.22 61,396.96 188,109.22 12/16/2010 15:47:19 Sold 650 V @ 68.21 44,335.75 232,444.97 12/16/2010 15:47:19 Sold 10 V @ 68.2 681.98 233,126.95 12/16/2010 15:47:19 Sold 1013 V @ 68.17 69,055.04 302,181.99 12/16/2010 15:47:19 Sold 200 V @ 68.16 13,631.76 315,813.75
Good work neke and happy new year
Best of luck to you next year and I look forward to reading your journal.
Thanks for sharing
RW
__________________
Robert Weinstein
"No other occupation that I know of makes the day go by so quickly or the weekend so slowly as trading."
Quick recap of the last two weeks.
Was out of town and didn't have much time to check the market until this week when I came back and was fully involved (spending my last week of vacation from my regular job). Turned out to be an impressive week, up 46K (14%). Almost makes me question why I have to go back to work next week
Much of the week was involved in fading over-extended moves on the upside and downside for quick retracements/bounces.
Putting in a request to take out 30K cash (tax-free, Thank Goodness!), leaving 335K to start the new thread.
code:
Opening Balance: 319,440 Net gain for the week 46,459 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 365,899 NFLXJAN72011175.0CALL 2011-01-03-09-30-27 2011-01-03-11-05-56 7000 24075 38510 14322 NFLX CALL PCLNJAN72011450.0PUT 2011-01-06-10-26-54 2011-01-06-11-05-25 3000 34500 47700 13146 PCLN PUT
typo: net gain, not loss
nice start!
Awesome! I hope you have great trading for 2011!
Quote from shortie:
typo: net gain, not loss
nice start!
Now thats the way to start the new year... sweet
Sweet Neke, you make in one week what I hope to make in the next 12 month ;-)
Good luck this year !!!
Neke, I look foreward to your next journal. Question, How do you determin an over-extended move? Thanks!
After taking out 30K, now have 336K to start the new thread:
2011: Rebuilding My Battered Account
[EDIT BY MAGNA]: At neke's request this thread has been closed.
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