Forums (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/index.php)
- Index Futures (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?forumid=13)
-- Approach to trading the ES contract (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=163702)
Approach to trading the ES contract
I thought I would do this to provide an orientation for new traders
I prefer no outside comments
Trolls and flamers not welcome and please do not post
I will ask that the moderator remove all such posts.
I will post a general orientation first using the $DJX (Dow Jones Cash)
I will post charts on several times frames and try to tie it all together so that an observer could see a reasonable method of trading the ES contract.
I will being using "pieces and parts" from several threads here at ET. I will try to show how these concepts can be combined to make a systematic approach that actually makes money.
Profitable systems have to include risk management, trade management and position sizing rules. I will add comments about these issues so that a person can see the big picture.
Okay then this is to be an approach to trading the ES contract intraday
We start by orienting ourselves to the longer term using Dow Cash Charts
As can be seen on this first chart, we have been in an uptrend since March
On a 60 minute time frame, I have added support and resistance lines.
As you can imagine this is a less objective but no less important part of the system. In my opinion, a trader has to learn to accurately identify support and resistance for themselves.
And here we zero in a bit closer to the intraday action where we can see consolidation happening on the 15 minute timeframe
Finally we look a little bit closer using 5 minute candles. Here we can see price consolidating intraday.
This chart could be used to make decisions for entry and exit
Once you orient yourself to the market on the longer term, you assume that the odds favor one side more than the other.
In this case we believe that the odds favor the long side. Although we take trades on both sides we may size our long positions bigger and we may give them more wiggle room (bigger stops).
One method that works consistently well is to combine signals from several methods to find an entry. When two or more of these signals occur in close physical relationship to each other we believe that the chances of success are increased, because there are likely to be more traders on the trade.
We look for signals using the following sources
1. Market Profile numbers
2. Pivots
3. EMAs
4. Ergodic Indicator
5. MACD indicator
6. Events
Where two or more of these "line up" in close proximity, we call that "confluence" and assign that setup higher odds of success.
Translating price action from the Dow Cash ($DJX) chart to the ES contract is not particularly difficult. The operative concept is to watch for "tests" of specfic price points.
We will start by using Market Profile numbers as an example
The night before, make a spreadsheet that contains the important numbers for Market Profile traders. In our experience the most important numbers are the
Value Area High 926.25
Value Area Low 916.25
As can be seen in this intraday chart, the market opened at 912.25. Our orientation is to look for price to test the VAL early in the session.
As it happened, price tested up to a early high of 913.50.
If you scan to the left, (following the horizontal line) you can see that price failed to take out that point. At 6:35 (second candle) price tested that point again and failed again, indicating a possible short entry. Because of the proximity of the pivot point at 910 we might still take the trade but with smaller size and tighter stop (1 to 1.5 point max).
The attached chart shows the possible entries
On that same chart price hit an intraday low at 6:50am PST
If you were running both this and the Dow Cash chart side by side you would see the cash test one of our support/resistance lines
Here we show the Dow Cash on a 3 minute chart to emphasize the test. On that chart we can see the dow test our line at 6:45 and again at 6:48 and the subsequent failure at 6:51
What we have so far, is a MACD entry, and an entry suggested by test and failure of our support & resistance lines. In our opinion this would be enough of a confluence to interest us in a long position. In addition because we are in a longer term uptrend we could trade bigger size.
For this chart we show the intraday low at 905.75
and the test low at 906 (next candle)
Followed by an up candle and a retest down
When that retest fails it confirms (in our opinion) the reversal
and so we suggest entry long at 908.50
We look at this entry as favorable because one can see pretty quickly whether price is going to display enough momentum to break through the pivot lines. If it doesn't, you will see weakness right away and can stop the trade out minimizing the loss or possibly scratching the trade.
Although we view each individual trade as random, we can see that this particular trade moved right on up to 915 before pulling back. If one had held or possibly scaled out along the way, you could have realized profit up to the high of 916.50.
Our final comment for today is about managing the trade(s)
One nice feature about using the Dow Cash is that you can monitor the movement and get "early warning" for possible exit points.
In addition one can also get early warning about a possible range or consolidation day. In this instance, look at the way that price continued to test support. Using this method you get a possible warning that we are in for a choppy market within the first hour.
Okay its a new day Tues 12 May
We start by reviewing the longer term data which indicates that we are still in an uptrend however we are at extremes. This means we could see a correction at any time.
We check in with Forex factory and Briefing.com economic calendars to see if there are reports or events that might impact the day.
We check out the overnight action and look at our Market Profile numbers, which tell us
Value Area High = 913.50
Value Area Low = 909.00
Price opens at about 912. Because we opened under the Value Area High, we normally work a short trade on a test and failure of the number.
As you can see from our chart, price moved up to touch the number but could not take it out.
We are running both the $DJX (Dow Cash) and ES futures side by side. So we can see what the Dow is going to suggest and match it to the price action on the futures.
Look carefully at the Dow Cash chart. As you can see it opened at the previous day's low and moved right up to test the high. Look at how it goes right up to the support/resistance line, then scan to the left and see how it corresponds with previous high from yesterday. The next candle cannot take it out. This is called a test and failure. We look to enter short on the open of the next candle
To enter the short we watch the futures chart ESM9 and we see that it tests the Value Area High at 913.50, hitting it briefly. Our resting order did not get filled so we put in a marketable order which did get filled at 913.25
Price fails down below the Pivot and below the EMA. This confluence gives us some breathing room and confidence to hold the position as we recognize that this is a possible correction down. As long as price maintains a distance from the EMA, we will continue to hold our position.
Our money management process is to scale out along the way and when price closes above the EMA at 6:54am we close the position, waiting for a new signal.
Looking at the Cash Dow again we see that it tests another of our support and resistance lines at 7:00am PST
Looking at the futures chart we notice that the pending short signal is confirmed at 7:01 PST and that is our next continuation short at either 7:03 or 7:04 (905.25 or 904.50)
That short takes us down to 900 before retracing to 903 area, for a possible profit of 5 pts.
This is the futures chart that goes to the previous post
As can be seen in the chart we have multiple signals (confluence) from the Dow Cash and the MACD confirmation signal.
Based on this a trader would be paid for the day and done after about 1 hour of pretty concentrated work.
My initial comment on this is that the confluence and use of the Cash Dow chart seem to work pretty well.
Additionally I would suggest to traders that the most important and productive part of the day is the open (first hour). This is when a trader is likely to see the best opportunities for profit (or loss) because this market often "follows through" (moves a significant distance) based on open orders and imbalance correction. New traders are advised to work on getting to recognize signals that usually occur within the first 5-10 minutes. and to lay off of entries that are late.
As you develop experience with this market you will see that moves are often 5 to 10 points. Therefore entering late when a move has already gone 7 or 8 points is counterproductive and usually leads to whipsaw moves that chop the newby up. Do not enter more than .50 to .75 late on a signal.
Here is another item of info that could help traders
Regarding MACD, I was taught to use it to provide entry and exit during an established trend. I was also taught that when price transitions from trend to chop, that MACD is not as effective and to use another method.
The method I use for choppy or consolidating markets is to identify the range of the channel using the first high and low. Placing a horizontal line at each extreme I wait for price to exceed either extreme (giving preference to entries that represent continuation of previous trend). So as can be seen in the chart example, we have a consolidation high of 903.50 and a consolidation low of 899.25.
When price breaks up out of the range we wait for it to fail. This represents a possible continuation entry short. The short is when price re-enters the range (903) and the stop is very tight right above the previous high (904.50). In this case the short entry would have been profitable, bringing in 3 pts as of this post. We would be shooting for a re-test of 899.25 or better.
and at about 8:50am PST we get our test of 899.25.
and a failure and breakdown. At this point we would hold looking for a test of S2 at 895 or thereabouts.
We did not take this last trade, however it is a trade we would normally look for at the end of significant correction off a high.
Its 9:21am PST and we are about to test the S2 at 895.25
If price takes out this price point our next important obstacle would be 893.25 which is a Market Profile number. If we get there that would mean this trade "continued" and turned into a 10 pointer (give or take a tick). and yes I wish I had taken it.
A couple of comments quickly
First I notice that readers have given this thread the max amount of stars. To me that means people believe there is value in the information and (perhaps) want to learn more. It also means that the thread is flying beneath the troll radar for the moment, which is nice.
That being the case, before I proceed forward I will take questions that readers may have. I don't think of myself as a particularly skilled teacher but I will try to help as best I can.
This interesting exercise for those who are following along with the use of the $DJX (Dow Cash) chart.
As you know, we put in support & resistance lines on that chart and use it as part of the decision making process.
What do you think might happen if you simply replace the $DJX symbol with the futures symbol? (ES #F for Esignal users).
Here is that chart with the support & resistance lines in place but framing the ES futures data instead of the $DJX cash. I have also put pivots in place (daily, weekly & monthly).
Basically a trader could have just traded the chart the way it is.
And to put things in perspective we review today' price action in the Dow Cash as follows (using a chart with 15 minute candles)
First, price opened and ran up to test the top of the previous day's channel. It failed to take out that resistance. About 45 minutes into the session, a minor rally took price back up to test the previous low. Price failed here as well, trending down to test the low of the longer term channel at 9:45am PST.
At 10:00 am PST buyers came in to initiate a sustained move from the lows up to a high at 12:15 PST. If you scan to the left you can see that price tested the midpoint of the previous "wide range" candle (opening candle on 5/11). It failed again to take out that price point, falling back into the channel created by the previous action on 5/11.
This leaves us about in the middle of the channel created several weeks ago.
This should be self explanatory
A nice short signal at about 7:30 PST
Here is another example of how channel lines can be used to trade consolidation. Normally I would be waiting for price to exceed the line and then fail. This short entry was higher risk but has paid out so far.
A significant amount of what I was taught relates how to develop a workable and accurate "market concept".
Prior to the open of the S&P market, we review specific data including combined OI and Volume on a daily time frame. This allows us to make a contingent forecast or "game plan". This data can be obtained directly from the exchange (read the daily bulletin) or one can get the data distributed by a third party (like Esignal for instance) The Esignal symbols are ES #OI and ES #V for daily data. In order to make use of the data one has to learn what constitutes low, average and high levels of daily volume and Open Interest. Evaluating the data is relatively straightforward. In a trending bull market, daily volume and OI are likely to trend upward as well. In addition, price will tend to advance even on pullbacks of OI & daily volume. As the trend matures or reaches extremes, pullbacks in volume or OI can signal impending corrections or even the end of a trend move.
I mention it here because I use this information as a backdrop for my own daily trading plan
Attached you will see a chart of daily "Open Interest".
Here is a screen shot of daily volume for the ES contract
You are doing a nice job...stick with it
Thanks for your kind words
As we get ready to start the day (Thurs 14 May 2009) we see the following
VAH = 889
VAL = 882
Early report include
Core PPI
Init Claims
Open Interest & Daily Volume were both "up" yesterday
60 Min chart of $DJX shows a correction off the recent highs (see attached chart)
Yesterday we trended down and closed slightly off the lows
and the 60 min chart of the $DJX
As can be seen we added a new horizontal support line at the bottom of this chart.
Having some technical difficulties in my office today, so while the IT guys handle that I will outline the early morning action
Evaluating the pre-market data, we looked for a move down (we opened "in value") to test the lower bound of value at 882.
We got that test and entered long at 882. We took small heat down to 880.50. We took 5 pts before technical difficulties took us out.
We noticed that Goldman was a seller on the open. At the turn, they were on the phone looking to buy them back. When this happens (a size player gets on the wrong side) they generally come back as a "quiet" buyer or seller to minimize the impact of their decision. That is to say, they try to buy or sell them back without driving the market against them. When that happens it makes it easy for you IF you are on the right side. You just hold and watch the screen.
We are just about ready to go again, so this will be my last post until after the bell.
I think we will move off in a different direction this evening.
First, we will talk briefly about options expiry. As regards the S&P contract, funds and specs tend to want to manipulate the index from about Tues to Expiry Friday. They want to move the index in a direction that permits them to pay out less or to maximize their "investment" (aka inventory). One can anticipate this by analyzing the open interest (which is why I brought it up in the previous posts). Information exists on how to do this (there are several approaches) and we invite interested traders to begin the process on their own by reviewing the available literature.
Also by implication one can see how the market tends to rally up to a point just prior to the options expiry, then just coincidentally it corrects back down in the days just prior to expiration. The way we characterize this is that it is a "tug-of-war" between those who have bought premium and those who have sold it.
One should always monitor the put-call ratio to get an idea of which way it is trending. There are a number of symbols offered by Esignal including $PC-ST which we use intraday.
Additional comment about today's action
As readers know, we anticipated a move down to test previous Value Area Low at 882. Taking the trade we monitored the Cash Dow and watched the move continue a little further down before correcting back up. The wiggle from 882 down to 880.50 is not unusual.
In this market we favor scaling out. Also we advise traders that position sizing matters greatly. Knowing what we know now, we would not be trading less than 12 contracts, and we would be scaling out at 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10, leaving 2 contracts to run. In current volatility we suggest scaling the last two contracts at 13 to 15 pts, leaving the last contract to run to end of session. This is how we would be approaching position sizing.
Generally speaking we terminate open positions when the cash market closes.
Those capable of critical analysis can quickly determine that trading for a few ticks doesn't work. Simply put, a retail trader cannot overcome expenses that way. In fact, to make a good living, one has to capture as many outlier trades as possible as they are the difference between a decent year and a great year.
OP says flamers are not welcome so I suppose that's it for me
its nice when we have an understanding 
Going into todays open we have the following data
Value Area High = 894
Value Area Low = 886.50
Reports scheduled for release include
Core CPI at 5:30am PST
Empire Manufacturing at 5:30am PST
Long Term TIC at 6:00 PST
Capacity Utilization at 6:15 PST
Industrial Production at 6:15 PST
Michigan Sentiment at 6:55 PST
If you look at the economic calendar using either Briefing.com or Forex Factory.com you can see that the Europeans release their information before we do. One can expect that the information they release will reflect continued weakness (as will ours)
At the open of the German (DAX) market we entered a short position on the Globex and will try to hold until the US market opens
As was pointed out previously, we also expect increased volatility due to options expiry. One can look at the Open Interest for QQQQ May Calls & Puts to determine where the battle lines will be for today. Speculators (and institutions) having bought or sold premium will want to move the markets in the direction of some of those strike prices.
We would be looking to take partial profit on a touch of 880
Pre-market short did not work and was stopped out
Why do you use the Dow cash chart
instead of the S&P cash chart when
trading the ES?
That was going to be my question as well, but I thought it might be a stupid one, so was hoping someone would beat me to it 
Where do you get the value area numbers?
Is that the only aspect of market profile you utilize?
You refer to we, the people who taught you and your office. I am just curious if you would tell us a little about your trading education and experience?
I am enjoying and learning from your thread so far.
Thanks.
In answer to the question "why the Dow Cash rather than the S&P Cash?"....I was taught this approach based on the Cash Dow and I did my own research based on comments by Art Collins. One could use the S&P cash as well. I am used to this method and prefer it.
I work in a small professional office, and prefer not to comment on them or identify them because I believe it would not help traders trying to learn from my comments. I can say that I execute orders from a daily book of business, and I manage mutiple accounts including my own.
Quote from DrPepper:
Where do you get the value area numbers?
Is that the only aspect of market profile you utilize?
You refer to we, the people who taught you and your office. I am just curious if you would tell us a little about your trading education and experience?
I am enjoying and learning from your thread so far.
Thanks.
Now for today's action
First we have option expiry. That means that the first and last hour will display most of the volatility. So we know that in order to make money we HAVE TO get on the right side early. We can't miss an entry. So with that in mind we start with the pre market
The overnight market moved down first on weak economic news from Europe. Then just prior to the open, the Globex moved back up to open at 889.
The previous day's value area high & low are
VAH = 894
VAL = 886.50
1. So we opened "in value"
2. We look for price to test one or the other extreme
3. Because of options expiry we expect to see what professionals call a "gamer's day" or a "pinball day" meaning we expect price to swing back & forth early and to chop around at midday.
As can be seen from the chart price opened in value and tested down to VAL at 6:41:50. Price hits the VAL exactly "to the tick" and reverses. The trade runs north to a high of 892.50 for 6 pts
At 7:13 price retraces down to touch 886.50 again. Our policy is to take the second touch long with smaller position size. This one takes only one tick heat down to 886.25. This one moved north to a high of 895.50 for 9 pts.
At the VAH the reversal trade occurred and took 1.5 pts heat. That trade moved south to a low of 876.75
As always, the management protocol is to establish the trade and scale out at 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10....we leave bullets to run to end of day if necessary.
Okay so I have a couple of comments and then I may fold my tent depending on the reception
First, clearly a trader has to have a systematic approach that provides some confidence. The emotional aspect of trading is very important. New traders have no confidence therefore they need to see (to observe) how it works, what it feels like to do this job in a variety of conditions. New traders also need to know how to manage a trade once they are filled.....how to hold through the heat (drawdown)......how to manage their emotions.
I like Market profile as a basic system approach. One could start by reading the literature and taking a few classes from the exchanges. The software is not hard to learn but it does take some screen time.
Developing a sense of how to act when a postion is filled....how to manage a trade....how to manage emotions and how to manage an account takes time. I think the best way is to find employment in a professional office. Unfortunately that is very difficult to obtain, so as an alternative I guess the only thing left is to try to find a good room. Some of the folks affiliated with the exchanges are possible choices. I like Dan Gramza for instance and there are several others.
Decent software is available from Investor RT, Esignal, and WindoTrader, and there are plenty of others.
As mentioned previously I prefer to take signals that occur when more than one system fires off at the same time. This is called "confluence". Examples of confluence are when price hits a Market Profile number AND a pivot, or when price hits a Market Profile number and we get a confirmation from a MACD indicator (as seen in some of my charts). I have also used Bill Blau's Ergodic indicator (I have my own system for that as well). Finally I have used the Dow Cash with support and resistance lines in place for additional signals.
Simply put I figure that if a signal occurs "in confluence" with another system or systems it provides better odds of success. Why? because it is likely that more traders are involved AND depending on the type(s) of indicator(s) used, size players may be involved thus providing additional momentum.
Quote from stevesbg:
Okay so I have a couple of comments and then I may fold my tent depending on the reception
First, clearly a trader has to have a systematic approach that provides some confidence. The emotional aspect of trading is very important. New traders have no confidence therefore they need to see (to observe) how it works, what it feels like to do this job in a variety of conditions. New traders also need to know how to manage a trade once they are filled.....how to hold through the heat (drawdown)......how to manage their emotions.
Developing a sense of how to act when a postion is filled....how to manage a trade....how to manage emotions and how to manage an account takes time.
Quote from stevesbg:
Now for today's action
First we have option expiry. That means that the first and last hour will display most of the volatility. So we know that in order to make money we HAVE TO get on the right side early. We can't miss an entry. So with that in mind we start with the pre market
The overnight market moved down first on weak economic news from Europe. Then just prior to the open, the Globex moved back up to open at 889.
The previous day's value area high & low are
VAH = 894
VAL = 886.50
1. So we opened "in value"
2. We look for price to test one or the other extreme
3. Because of options expiry we expect to see what professionals call a "gamer's day" or a "pinball day" meaning we expect price to swing back & forth early and to chop around at midday.
As can be seen from the chart price opened in value and tested down to VAL at 6:41:50. Price hits the VAL exactly "to the tick" and reverses. The trade runs north to a high of 892.50 for 6 pts
At 7:13 price retraces down to touch 886.50 again. Our policy is to take the second touch long with smaller position size. This one takes only one tick heat down to 886.25. This one moved north to a high of 895.50 for 9 pts.
At the VAH the reversal trade occurred and took 1.5 pts heat. That trade moved south to a low of 876.75
As always, the management protocol is to establish the trade and scale out at 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10....we leave bullets to run to end of day if necessary.
Quote from stevesbg:
Going into todays open we have the following data
Value Area High = 894
Value Area Low = 886.50
Reports scheduled for release include
Core CPI at 5:30am PST
Empire Manufacturing at 5:30am PST
Long Term TIC at 6:00 PST
Capacity Utilization at 6:15 PST
Industrial Production at 6:15 PST
Michigan Sentiment at 6:55 PST
If you look at the economic calendar using either Briefing.com or Forex Factory.com you can see that the Europeans release their information before we do. One can expect that the information they release will reflect continued weakness (as will ours)
At the open of the German (DAX) market we entered a short position on the Globex and will try to hold until the US market opens
As was pointed out previously, we also expect increased volatility due to options expiry. One can look at the Open Interest for QQQQ May Calls & Puts to determine where the battle lines will be for today. Speculators (and institutions) having bought or sold premium will want to move the markets in the direction of some of those strike prices.
Quote from Now is Now:
Let's talk about the one area that I shun from in my trading....fading....
Right or wrong, I take that to mean that the trader increases a "wrong trade" by increasing the exposure by the level as described above and then if it is still "wrong" the trader then increases the exposure further at a given point and so forth.
To get me straight, and a lot of others, who may have similar concerns, could you provide some guidance using the above VAL as if it went throught the 886.00 mark and down to the close, taking into account the LOD?
Rarely will I add on an exposure if I am in the "wrong"...I do,but it was predetermined and usually because I initially traded a half lot to open the exposure.
Incidently, I caught 1 1/2 pinballs, but the QQQQ spooked me to cover @ 4 ..needless to say it was wrong, but still a good profit.
Your contribution has been articulate and while there have not been that many responses, I am inclined to think that there are a few have been taking "notes".
Ideally, I would like to see a day when things don't go "right" and you can provide an explanation to your trading technique, not so much in numbers (although useful), but in your response and attitude to the result; and your response the next day.
Newbies will then understand that it is not "all beer and skittles".
Thankyou again,
NiN
Quote from Ronin08:
Was curious to know more about you decision to hold the short position until the 9:30am est Open , when there was a Report at 8:30am est( 5:30 pst ) and since one of the confluences that you use is an Econ. Report : #6. “ Events” “Where two or more of these "line up" in close proximity, we call that "confluence" and assign that setup higher odds of success.”
Were you expecting the 8:30am “ Event “ to have confluence ?
Quote from stevesbg:
...in times of increasing volatility a trader COULD enter in increments (depending on the position size). For instance, if you normally put on a position of 12 contracts all at once, in times of increasing volatility you might instead put on only 3 contracts initially. If your wiggle room was 2 points, you might wait and add 6 more if the position went against you (up to your 2 point stop). One of two possibilities will happen at that point. Either the position moves in your favor, in which case you would scale out your initial 3 contracts, or the position would continue against you resulting in a stopped out trade
Quote from trendy:
Sorry, but that doesn't sound like a very robust methodology to me. If the initial trade moves in your favor, you will cash on only 3 contracts. However, if the trade is a loser, you will be exposed on 9 contracts.
Quote from operator:
I agree. You should have your biggest position size on when you are right and your smallest position size on when you are wrong.
Unfortunately most traders have it the other way around.....
Quote from stevesbg:
Alright, I think I understand your comment and questions
I have asigned a value to what I call "wiggle room"..Lets say for example, that I will hold a position while it oscillates up and down for about 2 points, depending on what lines up above or below my entry. This "wiggle room" is based on an estimate of local volatility.
ENTERING IN INCREMENTS INSTEAD OF "ALL IN"
The way you enter can affect your ability to stay in a trade as it "wiggles around". For instance, in times of increasing volatility a trader COULD enter in increments (depending on the position size). For instance, if you normally put on a position of 12 contracts all at once, in times of increasing volatility you might instead put on only 3 contracts initially. If your wiggle room was 2 points, you might wait and add 6 more if the position went against you (up to your 2 point stop). One of two possibilities will happen at that point. Either the position moves in your favor, in which case you would scale out your initial 3 contracts, or the position would continue against you resulting in a stopped out trade
If the position moves in your favor, you have established a position slightly smaller than normal but at slightly "better prices"
If the position continues to move against you to your stop out point, you take a loss, however the loss is smaller than normal because your position is slightly smaller AND a portion of that position was established at "better" prices.
Modifying your method of entry is one way of managing changes in local volatility.
FRAMING MARKET ACTION
I watch the markets reaction to events including economic reports. If the market reacts favorably to negative events I take notice. Conversely if the market reacts negatively to events that normally one would see as positive, I take notice. The way the market reacts informs me of a bias. I look to trade that bias or tendency.
When the market opens "in value" despite potentially negative economic news it tells me that the market is discounting that news. If this view is correct, confirmation of that bias will come when the market tests the previous day's value area low and bounces off it to the upside. If my opinion was incorrect, I would have taken a loss on my first trade and reset my strategy looking for an appropriate place to get short.
Quote from operator:
I agree. You should have your biggest position size on when you are right and your smallest position size on when you are wrong.
Unfortunately most traders have it the other way around.....
__________________
...
When the previous poster finds a way to have big size on only when they are right, please post that solution.....
When the previous poster finds a way to have small size on only when they are wrong, again please post it.
I am always glad to learn something new.
Averaging into trades keeps a trader in the market long enough for his or her edge to kick in. It is an unfortunate necessity in markets that are noisy (like index futures). If like many newbies you have no real edge, then this method won't help you....and it is probably wiser just to stand aside until you develop a tradeable system.
Scaling out of trades works very well in markets that cycle back and forth through price ranges (like the S&P). Scaling works particularly well at the beginning of a trade because it allows the newbie to ring the register and develop some confidence. As always there are tradeoffs, but generally speaking I would suggest that new traders scale out of winners when trading a mean reverting market on an intraday basis.
Finally, this is simply my approach to trading the ES contract. I have done my own testing of various elements of the work and find that these ideas work for me at least. I want to suggest that traders become good researchers of their own markets and trade ideas. Ultimately it will serve you best to arrive at your own conclusions.
Thank you Stevesbg for an intelligent discussion of volatility and scaling in.
I have two additional questions.
How have you been able to keep the flamers away?
Two years ago we began an educational series of articles on ET and got obscene reactions by newbies who obviously had little trading experience, or worse lots of experience but a long period of losing.
Second, we have done lots of studies with value areas and found that over the long run with real cash, they lead to large drawdowns.
Have you traded cash with some of the previous described methods, and what has been your experience?
Thanks,
Successfully,
Alex L. Wasilewski
Co-Founder & Head Trader
Trades That Work
www.puretick.com
1-877-GOLONG1 ( 1-877-465-6641 )
I have no idea why the local trolls have stayed away. Perhaps they have been learning something new?
As for your comment about value areas, my experience has been quite different, and although I do trade the value areas as well as many other market profile derived numbers, I am pretty sure that my approach is different from most. Although I am not willing to give the details what I can say is simple.
Index futures markets are very noisy. Most retail traders do not fully appreciate how that noise affects them and their attempts to make money. Rather than go through the tedious math, I will sum it up as follows. No matter what single system a trader develops....no matter how carefully he or she "tunes" and tests their approach, their edge, their indicator blah, blah blah....no matter what...the market is going to cycle in and out of alignment with that strategy.....I don't care how smart a trader is, how much data they test on, how crafty they are with indicators...ITS GOING TO HAPPEN.
So I don't trade single use systems. Instead I monitor a range of data elements and use the principle of confluence. In other words I look for areas to trade where multiple "signals" exist either in the same place or in proximity to each other. Doesn't eliminate the problem, but it does minimize its impact on my P&L.
Have I ever traded with cash?....except for options positions, in our office we trade on margin.
Thanks for your questions.
Okay a quick briefing
First, prior to the pre-market check I calc'd my basic Market Profile numbers as follows;
VAH = 907.50
VAL = 895.50
We expected poor reports today as follows
Building Permits
Housing Starts
Both were below expectation and as a result the market moved as follows;
At 5:21am PST just prior to the release the Globex moved to a high of 912.25. As the data came out the market dropped on selling, testing yesterday's high at 908.75. We saw a pullback to 910.25 and then the primary move down resumed. We took out the VAH at 907.50 and that move is still in progress.
We have a "single" at 904.25 that should stop the move and provide a springboard for a possible retest on the open. If that single does not stop the move down, the pivot at 897 likely will, and below that we have the obvious obstacle (VAL) at 895. At this point it looks like we will once again open "in value"..
Looking at the 60 min $DJX chart we can see that the cash bounced off our lowest support level and trended up all day. It will be interesting to see what happens on the open. check out the last candle and then scan left. You can see that the high of the day in the cash tested the midpoint of the wide range bar way over to the left. This happens quite often.
Best of luck to everyone.
Intraday we can see that open interest is up
and intraday volume is down (below 2.6)
To our eye this indicates that size is "in the market" and that we have a healthy trending process in place.
To sum it up, yesterday the market moved up significantly on lower than average volume and slightly higher than average open interest
On the open we would be looking to trade a test of a value extreme.
We would be watching for strength or weakness in the Dow as evidenced by early readings in the $VOLD and $ADD
Also we would be monitoring the $TICKI watching for evidence of early program execution. To suppport a continuing move up, we would like to see significant size programs hit the tape within the first 10 minutes.
Quote from stevesbg:
On the open we would be looking to trade a test of a value extreme.
We would be watching for strength or weakness in the Dow as evidenced by early readings in the $VOLD and $ADD
Also we would be monitoring the $TICKI watching for evidence of early program execution. To suppport a continuing move up, we would like to see significant size programs hit the tape within the first 10 minutes.
i think he said tiki, which goes max, plus or minus 30 ,if program buying shows up on the open that should be stronger than plus 20, i'm not sure what steve considers a strong reading
Quote from ammo:
i think he said tiki, which goes max, plus or minus 30 ,if program buying shows up on the open that should be stronger than plus 20, i'm not sure what steve considers a strong reading
$TICKI is the Dow Tick
A reading of 18 to 24 is probably a program basket
Sorry folks I am not ignoring you, but I have no time to post at the open.
For what its worth locals were short in the hole here. That is usually the kiss of death for shorts. Joey came in a seller but could not push it down enough to make a difference. Someone (probably an institution or fund) came to buy quietly and moved it up from outside the pits. The single at 904.25 seems to have been the pivotal area.
If any of you have Market Profile charts, look at the IB. You can see that they "one ticked" that range and moved up from there.
Sorry folks, this briefing will be a little bit less detailed
I have maintenance to do on my own account. Spreadsheet analysis of performance for several systems (every 100 trades). I dislike the process (its tedious) but it really makes a difference so I do it.
For tomorrow
VAH = 913
VAL = 908.25
As regards today's action, we attach a chart of the #DJX with significant "test" areas marked.
Starting with the open we see price move up to test the previous session's closing print at about 6:40am PST.
Then price moved south to test a support line
Then back up to re-test a support/resistance line, and up to establish a daily high.
As can be seen there were no shortage of tests to trade. Combining them with other data points, I would hope a trader could find at least of couple of nice entries. It was a pretty simple day.
Moving to the end of the chart you can see where the market rolled over and then re-tested the midpoint of the previous wide range bar. As I have mentioned before (recently), this is a common test and failure that is often a good entry area for a short.
In this chart using 15 min candles we can see where we are in what is now a well established channel
Intraday Open Interest is up
Intraday Volume was down
Today was an excellent day.
Attached chart of the $DJX shows a number of trading opportunities that could have been taken as follows
1. From 6:45 to 7:30 PST we had multiple tests of the previous highs
2. Around 10am PST we saw test of a support line (Scan left to see the previous price point where the test could occur)
3. From about 10:30 PST until 12:00 we saw price test the midpoint of the previous "wide range candle" (a concept referred to several times now).
I have family obligations to take care of now, but I will be back tonight to post a final comment on todays action along with another chart for reference.
OK so here's how we will do this today
This first chart shows yesterday's close and the re-test of the intraday low at 903.50
You can also see the overnight Globex market and the move up from there during the Asian and European Markets
This next chart is 1000 tick candle with 9 & 34 period EMAs
The lower pane shows MACD (3,10,16)
Market Profile numbers were
VAH = 913.75
VAL = 908.75
1. Market opened "above value" at 915
2. It then moved down to double tap 914
3. From there price ran north to 917.75
Significance.....Price opened up and continued the existing trend
Also notice how the distance between the 9ema & 34 ema widens. This indicates two things....one...that the existing trend has strength and two...that the existing trend is likely to continue. Given this, the general rule is to buy the first pullback from an established trend.
In the lower pane, we see that the MACD "signal line" (white line) is above the zero line. This is the first part of a possible long signal. Just below, the histogram displays what we call a "zero line rejection", where the line tests but fails to take out the zero line. This is the confirmation of a long signal.
Looking at price we see a classic "retrace then resume" long entry signal at 916.25 with an initial profit target of 920.75
Notice how the distance between the 9 & 34 emas remains steady indicating continuing strength. Price takes out the pivot just above 920.75 and continues up to a high of 923.50 for a profit of 7+ points.
We direct your attention back to the $DJX chart posted previously. On that chart (using 15 minute candles) you saw the cash test its previous high, starting at 6:45.....
Now look at the ES chart attached below and you see that at 6:45, price is testing 917.50 area....in other words the $DJX chart is giving a "heads up" that the ES might be nearing an intraday high. The distance between the 9 & 34 emas remains constant so we know that this is not the high.
At 7:00am PST, we see price continue up to test the pivot, and STILL the distance between the 9 & 34 remains constant.
At 7:15 the $DJX spikes briefly leaving a "sellers" tail. At 7:23 on the ES chart, price hits an intraday high of 923.50. Again we see that the $DJX gives a "heads up" that an intraday high is about to take place.
At this point notice how price closes inside the space between the 9 & 34 emas. Notice also how the upper ema "rounds over" indicating that the up trend is about to collapse.
From 7:30 to 7:45 price consolidates at the pivot
At 7:46 price closes below the 34ema for the first time, signaling the possible end of that consolidation. Professionals sometimes call this first move out of a consolidation a "peekaboo"...as it offers us a look at where stops might be positioned.
At 7:50 price retests the pivot AND the 34ema. This confluence provides and the subsequent failure move are the entry signal we would take at this point.
Take a long look and memorize the conditions. They will appear over & over.
At 8:45 we get our first pullback in this new downtrend
Looking down at the indicator pane, we have confirmation of a short entry
Short entry at 916.50 provides a nice profitable trade
The main ideas to take away from the preceding charts are as follows;
1. Identify the major trend on a longer term chart
2. Use the $DJX to get a "heads up" as to what the ES is likely to do
3. Identify the minor trend on the tick chart ( I use 1000 ticks)
4. Look for confluence (proximity of two or more signals)
5. Look for a good entry
6. Scaling out allows you to stay in the trade longer. The longer you stay in a profitable trade, the more money you make.
No pre-market report today.
What I do want to do however is to refer traders to the method in this link.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...492#post2432492
The OP is "DonKee". He was kind enough to post a method that uses the MACD (3,10,16) and to show plenty of examples of intraday trades. It works if YOU make it work.
What does that mean? Well it means that you act mechanically to execute when the conditions line up. It means that you take all the trades and hold for at least a couple of points (he suggests putting in a break-even stop at +1.5 pts).
My opinion for trading the ES contract is simple. I wouldn't trade at all unless I could afford to put on 10-12 contracts. Thats how I would trade it. Don't trade for ticks. Once you enter a trade there are three possible outcomes as follows;
1. You take a stop loss (for me this is 2 pts min in the S&P)
2. You take profits
3. You scratch the trade (breakeven minus commissions)
As mentioned previously I won't trade single use systems. So I want at least one additional reason to take a trade. That additional reason could be a filter like $ADD, or $VOLD (my favorite), or previous day's volume (ES #V) and Open Interest (ES #OI). I might also take a trade where the signal occurs in proximity to a pivot, a Market Profile number, or some other price action that you have researched. The reason for this (as previously stated) is that I believe that entry with at least two signals indicates that more traders are on the trade, giving the trade better odds of positive outcome.
greta thread steve
For Thursday May 21st
Attached see the chart showing the overnight action prior to the market open
Notice the extended move down during Asian and European Market hours.
Market Profile numbers
VAH = 919
VAL = 907.75
Notice that the market opened well below value at 889.75. Combined with the overnight action, we should have expected a correction
The "tell" that occurred early in the session was the move UP to test for buyers right before the reports released.
Reports
Initial Claims
Leading Ind
Philly Fed
21st May
Continuing on we observe the following
At approx 6:50 the market spiked up to test a previous S/R area. To confirm this take a look at the
The question is "Why the move up"? and OUR answer is "The market is looking for evidence that buyers (buy stops) were in place above the open in anticipation of a move up.
Now lets stop here and look at the next chart attached below
Here's the problem with reviewing charts after the fact....First I put a horizontal line in to show how price tested a previous area (support/resistance) at 893....Then I ask you to scan left (I have used this same language before) to illustrate how to put this price action in perspective...
For those interested in actually learning something, this is important take away....you have to learn to do this the opposite way......
You start by placing the horizontal line in under the lower boundary of the consolidation BEFORE the market opens. As you can see, it "forecasts" the possible move up (benefit #1)
AND it allows you to put the move in perspective in such a way as to make money from it....how...well clearly you have a test, and you can trade the failure move off of that test (benefit #2)
Finally, because you are playing the short side, you are trading with the (intraday short term) trend and in this case you have some nice short entries set up right in front of you as price tests up again two more times.
I hope someone gets this because it is the reason that after the fact analysis does so little for new traders (after all its "backwards" from what you see in real time).
As we know I prefer multiple signals as they increase the odds of success.
In the attached photo, we see the same tests outlined AND this time we direct your attention to the last test and then down to the indicator pane where the MACD sets up a short signal (the first of two in this chart).
You see the market breakdown and roll over at the conclusion of the third test. Scanning down to the indicator pane, you see the MACD showing a initial signal for a short, then the histogram confirms the signal dropping down through the zero line at 7:11:36
In my opinion, this is now a high probability short trade, and the only question for me is "where do I enter?" and "how much size do I put on?"
And here is our last comment for the evening
Again we illustrate the concept of putting in a horizontal S/R line and trading the test of that line. As you can see the horizontal line is in place. This is subjective and for that reason, there is a lot of "art" to the placement. In hindsight it is easy, so one should be aware that it will take time to get the feel for how to do this. Once you have it however, you can see the benefits
We put in the horizontal line at the base of the consolidation area at the top left of the chart. Then we wait. The breakdown, signal and short trade that followed was noted on our previous chart.
Then we see signal and confirm from the MACD system (single system signal) that we would probably skip or trade small)
Price climbs back up to test that S/R line, breaks through but cannot take it out, and then climbs back up to test yet again. This time, we see the MACD signal, we see price roll over and the confirmation from the MACD. There are several nice entry points as seen on the chart. Notice that THIS signal has momentum and moves south with conviction (probably because more traders are on this trade).
I think we will will fold our tent at this point.
We will look in periodially to see if there are questions but for the most part we will have to re-direct our efforts to our primary business.
We wish everyone the best of luck
Stevesbg
Quote from stevesbg:
I think we will will fold our tent at this point.
We will look in periodially to see if there are questions but for the most part we will have to re-direct our efforts to our primary business.
We wish everyone the best of luck
Stevesbg
Quote from Whisky:
Do you believe your methods can be 100% automated, or at least close to 100%?. Or, on the other hand, do you believe the subjective/intuitive/situational component can never be elliminated from your approach?.
If so, how far have you gotten along the automation route?.
What kind of monthly % returns on capital are you looking to obtain from your trading ?.
Nice thread. Thanks and regards.
JW
By the way, do you remember the comments by "Spectra" regarding the use of Market Profile numbers (he suggested that his "backtesting" proved it didn't work)....
In the chart attached above, look at how the market tested the Value Area and then broke down, running all the way down to the Value Area Low at 882.50 (almost to the tick again).
Interesting isn't it? I seem to be able to make it work just fine.
Hope everyone has a nice holiday.
Stevesbg
Quote from stevesbg:
Hi JW
I think one could automate this, however I doubt an automated system could trade more profitably.
I am about 50% through my own process.
Can't comment about returns in this venue, sorry.
I do have a small sample of trades that I will publish so folks can see what is possible.
Thanks for your questions and your good work here.
I attach today's chart for those interested in the morning's trades. Since the pit has thinned out considerably I am going to stop right here for the week. Nice easy day once again.
Kind Regards
Stevesbg
Couldn't resist posting this one
First the $DJX
As can be seen, on the open the $DJX does what it often does and tests previous highs or lows (lows in this case)
You could have just waited for the "test" and placed your trade off this chart (long or short depending on your own system approach).
and then the ES chart.
You can see tha the ES showed strength from the beginning.
If you were monitoring the $VOLD and $ADD you would have seen nice indications of buying comming into this market
Plenty of places to get long (I choose to enter long at 80.25 with a 2 pt stop)
Like to scale out even though it is "inferior" 
behavior at 2,3,5,7 and finally at 10 leaving runners in case it continues
As you can see this market continued up on the news. I am still long with a few bullets left as this posts. Current Market high 92.25 and I am tempted to cash out here with a best of 20 pts.
Let's get some real time calls in this thread in order to establish credibility. --Ishmael
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
Let's get some real time calls in this thread in order to establish credibility. --Ishmael
We'll need to see some real time results, most likely several months to a year to determine whether the system has merit. Let's get some real time calls in here and we can establish credibility. Thanks--Ishmael.
We?
Don't make me laugh
If you want to know whether a system is viable, "We" suggest you climb down off your podium and test it yourself.
There "we" go, there's 30 seconds I'll never get back
We is what we is.
JW
Hey bud, "we" hope you're having a good day.
Quote from stevesbg:
Hey bud, "we" hope you're having a good day.
Normally I would characterize this as an "easy day" however TODAY I have a retail trader watching me execute (just doing my boss a favor), and I am reminded of how difficult it can be to just sit and wait for a for a test to either take out a price or fail, and for a position to get some cushion.
As with most days, the signals are straightforward. You watch, you anticipate, you put on the trade and you manage it. In contrast, retail traders watch and second guess and wait too long to enter, too long to exit, and then spend the rest of the time beating themselves up instead of monitoring for the next trade.
Best of luck to all
Just for grins I will post the signal times
Test #1....Signal at 6:42
Test #2....Signal at 6:51
Test #3....Signal at 7:26
Test #4....Signal at 8:36
All times PST
Okay so here is an update that is timely
Why? Because of the recent posts where folks "suggest"
A. That it is unlikely (read impossible) to make money trading off the screen and
B. That one can make money using only the MACD
First the background
Market opened near its highs. Right away (in my office anyway) we are looking for a failure trade and a retrace down to Previous Value (from MP).
Market opens and futzes around like it often does just above a pivot. Normally we look for price to take out the pivot to the downside and retest. At that point we would like to find favorable short entry on the retest and failure.
Check out the chart. We are sitting right next to two retail traders looking at the same chart. We are all supposed to be thinking in the same way about how to interpret the data. We "prefer" to find setups that offer more than one reason to get long or short. This is called "confluence". In this instance we have
A. Price taking out the pivot and retesting
b. MACD showing possible momentum move down
c. $VOLD, $ADD and Prem "confirming" a possible move down
We all get short and what happens after that tells the whole story. The stop for this trade is 2 points. Short entry at 950.50
I pull the trigger, set my stop and lean back to watch. Couldn't give a damn less, as I have seen this about a thousand times before. On either side of me, the retail traders are filled at the same price and they are "tick watching". This means they are nervous and they are watching closely to see what happens. They want something positive to happen right away. Look at what price does...it says "fuck you, I am going to move up and shake you out" and it does just that moving up to 951.50
As price is moving up, the retail guys are asking ME what to do and I am smiling at them and saying "what do YOU want to do?" and they say "WELL IF ITS NOT GOING DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT MINUTE OR SO, I AM READY TO GET OUT WITH A SMALL LOSS."
So I shake my head and say "fine, your call champ"....lets see what happens....as price retests the high point again, they "cave" one of them decides to get flat and predictably the other can't stand the tension of waiting and boom they are both out with a small loss. One filled at 951.25, the other filled at 951.50 (the exact friggin high tick).
As you can see, the market broke down at 6:43 and continued down, taking out several pivots to a low of 933.25 for 18 ES points.
THIS is why retail doesn't make money. Not because they don't have an edge. These guys do...Not because they can't pull the trigger...They got on the trade....But because they have trouble managing their emotions once they get filled. This is why retail are called "weak hands".
Can't say it anymore plainly than that.
Back to work
Quote from stevesbg:
Like to scale out even though it is "inferior"
Quote from stevesbg:
On either side of me, the retail traders are filled at the same price
http://www.goodmorningwallst.com/files/gmws060509r/gmws060509r.html i dont trade with the macd but this little video might be of interest to your newbie's hungry for clues
Quote from stevesbg:
Okay so here is an update that is timely
Why? Because of the recent posts where folks "suggest"
A. That it is unlikely (read impossible) to make money trading off the screen and
B. That one can make money using only the MACD
.
Back to work
Quote from FortuneTeller:
You scale out using the same numbers as steve46 did. What a coincidence.
Quote from BPtrader:
are you NOT a retail trader?
Quote from stevesbg:
I doubt that its a coincidence. If you took a moment to do your own homework you would see that protocol works well in mean reverting markets. Makes sense that other professionals would come to a similar conclusion.
Sadly you are the first on my ignore list
Congrats
Quote from stevesbg:
Sadly you are the first on my ignore list
Congrats
Let this guy write his thread and stop trying to pick it apart. If you dont like it, dont read it.
Quote from stevesbg:
THIS is why retail doesn't make money. Not because they don't have an edge. These guys do...Not because they can't pull the trigger...They got on the trade....But because they have trouble managing their emotions once they get filled. This is why retail are called "weak hands".
Quote from xburbx:
Let this guy write his thread and stop trying to pick it apart. If you dont like it, dont read it.
Thanks for the kind words JW and Xburbx
As regards MP (Market Profile) I like Dalton's work in "Mind over Markets". I also like the nice work they are doing over at IOAMT with volume at profile analysis. From my point of view, these are the basics.
I notice recently that MP numbers are getting front run (both value area high and low). That tells me that more participants are trading these concepts. so I am going to restrict what I say here. I do however want to suggest that any trader who wants to find an edge could do so by simply learning to research how price moves in relation to the "initial balance", and by looking at how the brackets auction inside the balance. I will leave the rest to industrious traders willing to do their own homework.
One concept I will talk about is the way I trade the "confluence" of pivots, moving averages, MP numbers and other significant areas. Generally speaking, what I am looking for is where these price "landmarks" occur either together or nearby each other. I look for price to test once, and then I take a position based on the retest. If we think about it, price tends to act in one of three ways when it hits an important area. It either takes out that price point 1.)to the upside, 2.)to the downside or 3.)it chops around in a range. What I have noticed is that before price "takes out" an area it usually "retests". I use that retest as a signal to get long or short.
Since these areas can be anticipated, one can put in filters and look for price to either take out these areas, or fail. The filters that work well in my opinion include volume (for Esignal) $VOLD and $ADD and one can also use $TICK, $TICKI, PREM AO
Finally I do like MACD but I don't use it by itself and I like to vary the settings depending on the price action that I am trying to capture. Some examples are seen in prior posts.
Best of luck to everyone.
Stevesbg
Quote from stevesbg:
I notice recently that MP numbers are getting front run (both value area high and low). That tells me that more participants are trading these concepts.
Quote from ang_99:
MP has been in use for decades and you're just NOW noticing these things huh? You just lost all credibility with that idiotic statement.
Quote from stevesbg:
Thanks for dropping by with your valuable post on MP
Clearly your understanding of markets is limited (probably by your lack of intellect). Concepts like Market Profile go in and out of fashion with traders. This happens because incompetent traders such as yourself move from one system to another failing each time to make it work. Rather than take responsibility for your inadequacies, you decide its the system that has failed and you move on to the next one. That is why periodically, systems like Market Profile get "front run" as more losers like yourself try to find a holy grail. I hope that is simple enough for you to understand.
and since I have lost credibility, naturally you will want to move on to something of more value. What a shame we won't be benefitting from your wisdom.
Bye
Hey stevesbg, thanks for a great thread. I really like your way of looking at the market, and have learned a lot from your posts!
Please, just ignore all the trolls desperately trying to make themselves sound like skilled traders by writing worthless nonsense. They pop up in most threads that actually have some value.
Here's whats going to happen. People are going to piss the OP off and he is going to see this as a waste of time. If you are trying to pick his methods apart , please just dont type anything and read another thread. It takes less energy and time to close the window than it does to type a response.
Please keep posting- I just fouind this thread and am getting into it
Here is tonight's pre-market analysis of the recent action, looking to quantify suppport and resistance
To obtain these S/R areas, I review charts on several time frames including 60, 120, 240 and 300min. I do this because I am trying to determine areas where price has tested multiple times AND trying to find "wide range bars". Both situations can provide possible targets for price during RTH.
On a related subject, one could use these S/R areas to obtain possible targets for trading the overnight. I have found for example that economic reports released during the FDAX/Stoxx sessions often cause movement in the Globex (ES contract) overnight. A person interested in trading the overnight would want to monitor pending economic reports of interest to European investors & traders. One way to do this is to use the Forex Factory Economic Calendar. Here is the link
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Good luck tomorrow
thought it started off pretty decently.
Quote from stevesbg:
I look for price to test once, and then I take a position based on the retest.
Here is the same chart looking at the 15 min candles
Notice how price takes out the line and then retests
and here is the same chart using 5 min candles
Notice how it becomes more clear as price retests but fails and falls.
In answer to the previous post, look at what a short entry at would have produced. We can't know whether price will recover and retrace back into the upper channel however you do have a couple of points cushion (and a scale out profit if you wanted it).
Quote from Michael.jstocks:
Any rules on playing the retest? Do you look for it to make a higher low and a break up before you buy it for example?
cheers
Here is the same chart with weekly pivots in place. Notice how price tested the weekly pivot and failed.
and here is the same chart with Monthly and Daily pivots in place
Notice that price continued to move south and may reach down to tag the pivot at 930. Currently that proposed short trade on the failure at 935 has a cushion of 4 es points. We would not be surprised to see it hit that pivot, bringing in at least 5 points. A decent payday.
Quote from stevesbg:
I hope the preceding charts answer your question. I prefer not to give hard and fast rules as each trader needs to do a bit of research on this before they decide whether it is their cup of tea.
Personally while I look for confirmation in terms of up/down volume and other indications, hopefully as you move forward in this business you will understand that no matter how much analysis you do, the result of any single trade is random. Its only over a significant sample size that your edge kicks in.
For those looking at this along with me this evening we did this because we want to show some of the possibilities for developing a systematic approach to the overnight market. Clearly trading the overnight require different skills and interests and just as clearly one has to have the ability to monitor, anticipate and interpret the economic reports that cause Asian and European markets to move. In our opinion, tonight's move is probably not over. Generally speaking we anticipate moves of about 10 es points (or multiples of 10) from the overnight high to low during times of elevated volatility.
and before we sign off here is the same chart again and as can be seen we have tagged the 930 pivot. This trade (if one were on it) would have brought in about 5 ES points, and of course it may very well continue on down.
Notice a couple of things here. First, the high is up at 940 and the current touch of 930 is (yes you guessed it) about 10 points lower.
Secondly notice the reaction at 930 as buyers came into the market looking for a tradeable bottom. Is this a bottom, we don't know, but if you employed a scale out money management method you would have taken at least some profit at 5 points and you would have the luxury of being able to wait and see what happens.
There is one more item of information that may interest traders who use Market Profile in their trading decisions. Tonight my worksheet shows Previous Value Area High at 945 and the Previous Value Area Low at 937.50. If one were to re-visit the chart, you would quickly see that we had a confluence of the weekly pivot and the Value Area Low nearby at 937.50. For me anyway this would have been a high priority short entry (I did not take it as I was busy doing my homework).
Now my priority is to get some sleep before the RTH market opens.
I hope this helps and good night
]
Here is a step-by-step approach that often produces good results
We begin with a "blank slate". The attached chart uses 22,500V candles. I have marked the open only.
Okay now we scroll to the left so that same chart displays the overnight and the previous day's price action
On that same chart, we place horizontal lines at the highs & lows
and then we scroll back to the right to see the result of our work.
and we mark the tests of each of the S/R lines we drew using the previous day's price action.
As can be seen, one could simply trade the chart as it is, using the S/R lines from the previous day.
and our next chart includes the daily, weekly & monthly pivots as well as the Previous Day's Value Area High (at 945) and Value Area Low (at 937.50).
Of importance here is the "confluence" of pivots, and Previous Value Area High occurring in the area of 945.
From our point of view one could have successfully traded the chart using only the S/R lines, the pivots, and the primary Market Profile numbers.
Now some may not like trading off a 22500v chart. It gives the broad strokes of price movement but disguises the tests are retests that I like to use for entry and exits
So lets take the same chart and type in "3000V" (for Esignal users) and here is what we get with the added detail that helps to see where tests and retests occur.
As can be seen in the attached chart segment, price tests and retests, providing some nice entry points.
and we scroll along a bit further and see the same basic action
as price tests and retests the S/R lines drawn from the previous day's action.
Rather than go through the entire chart, I will leave further analysis to the reader (I have my own homework to do this evening).
The main points to remember are as follows
Using a chart showing the previous day's action, put in your primary S/R lines. You want to place these horizontal lines at swing highs and lows. The charts in the previous examples are 22,500V. You could use 60, 30 or 15 minute bars or candles. The shorter the time frame, the more granularity (more lines/more definition) and thus it could be a little more confusing to new traders. I suggest sticking to the broad strokes at first until one gets used to doing this kind of prep.
Trading from these examples one would want to include a filter. That filter could be $ADD, or $VOLD, $Tick, $Prem, or whatever you find helpful. I included Market Profile numbers to show how they add value to a trader's decision making process.
I received a question relating to my premarket analysis of support & resistance this morning so I will post a couple of charts showing how I put this lines in
The first chart attached shows the premarket as it looked Thursday night
The next chart shows Friday's action
As can be seen the price action could be contained in the S/R lines and they could be the basis for your entry/exit decisions.
So when are you going to start your own website and mentor for a fee? That’s were this will lead. Seen if so many times.
I thought of recording my thoughts hereon ET, but it seems sort of stupid. So I just do in word and excel. And compile my thought there. Why submit yourself to the negative energy here unless you plan on luring in folks.
I posted a comment and reading it, decided I did not like the tone of it. Here's another try
First, I think there are problems associated with communicating on the Internet. I think this comment by Mxjones sums it up accurately.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...116#post2465116
As far as your comment Roman Candle, I think I understand your cynicism. In fact to some degree I tend to be cynical myself. I think however that as I get older I want to make this world a place where at least once in a while, one can find a decent person willing to help, without having their hand out. In spite of my own cynical nature, I have met such people and frankly that is what I would aspire to.
As a practical issue, I don't particularly like to teach. I find it is difficult to do well, and unfortunately the teacher-student relationship does not always work out the way we might hope. One sad truth no one wants to deal with is that there are some folks who are simply don't have the talent necessary to make it in this business. I am sure vendors make money doing this, but there is a dark side to it that I don't have the stomach for, and since I don't need the money, for me at least, it just isn't worth it.
I plan on doing what I do best. I comment on things, I point people in what I believe is the right direction, and at some point in the near future I plan to stop and fall off the radar. I hope some of you benefit, as I know I have, from the many decent folks I have met here. Its the best I can do.
Best Regards
Stevesbg
This post for XB and others who have commented on using S/R to obtain entries/exits
Prior to the open we did our standard worksheet and added lines for the Globex
Market Profile showed VAH at 939.25 and VAL at 933.75. Normally we would expect price to test down first to find sellers. If no joy there, we look for a long to go back up to determine acceptable value.
On this date, price simply moved straight down as can be seen on the attached chart using 5 min candles. Clearly the market found sellers. We saw paper sellers in the pit early. Even if you missed the opening trade, you had another shot at it as price took out our resistance just below 927.50. Also note the confluence of pivots in that area. The re-test of (now support) occurred around 7:00am PST, followed by the failure move down, you got your 10 pts at about 8:10 pst.
Monitoring $VOLD and $ADD would have helped a trader to stay in the position long enough to get the most out of this move down.
Here is $VOLD during that time frame
and a snapshot of $ADD showing the market selling down during that same time frame.
I think its important to look carefully at the premarket. In this instance what I am looking for, are "tests" of a "landmark" (in this case the 200 period ema). When I see that price respects that landmark in the premarket, it suggests to me that price may again respect that line in future. Actually I know this to be true because I have put in the screen time. So what I am more interested in, is how price acts around the 200.
Today, price opened "in value", meaning somewhere in between the previous day's value area high at 911.50 and value are low at 904. When price "tested" 904 soon after the open, a long entry at 904 would have resulted in a nice profitable trade (refer to the attached chart).
If you follow the early move off the open, you can see that price drove up from 904, through the previous day's value area high at 911 and up to a "local high" of 916.25 about a half hour later.
price then retraced back to the 200 period ema (and the previous day's value area high at 911). As I have mentioned in previous posts, when I see that kind of confluence, and my filters ($VOLD, $ADD, etc) give confirmation, THATS A BET I AM WILLING TO TAKE.
So actually we have two possible scenarios.
1. A trader could have entered long at 904, scaled out to 10 pts and kept a couple of contracts in case the trade continued to run in his/her favor, or
2. The trader could have cashed out at 12 pts and then waited for another shot. Seeing the test (and confluence at 911) a new trade could be put on at that point. If a trader entered long at 911, they would have taken only 1 tick heat. That entry would have resulted in another 5 or 6 points depending on the exit.
As can be seen, there were multiple tests and retests that an aggressive trader could have made good use of.
Here is the same chart with the Weekly Pivots in place
As you can see the pivots reinforce the confluence concept and make it easier (my point of view) to take the trade(s).
and the same chart once more with both the daily and monthly pivots in place
Once you see this it should become obvious how important it is to place the right context around price action. Simply put it is easier to lean on a couple of landmarks when putting on a trade than it is to simply trade price (the current fad).
Best of luck in the markets tomorrow.
Stevesbg
I wish there was a way to save threads like these as favorites on this site, and be able to reference them fast.
Great thread Steve!
steve,
do you always have a 200ma on your chart as a strong reference point to add confluence? i missed both of those trades yesterday but the setups were there at both spots but i wasnt quick enough. i caught the short of the IB EOD on the 1min retest. Just curious as to why 16 was a logical high? the reason i was looking to short it was because it has a 2week value extreme at 915 and it looked like a 5min probe to me over that level.
To the above guy looking to add this to your favorites, click the subscribe button on the bottom.
leapup,
in the bottom you can subscribe to a thread and you can always go to your accout and view them, also you can email every time someone posts on a thread you subscribed to.
hope you're enjoying Generals thread. I am and its is interesting.
hope it helps.
JT
Got a moment here before things heat up
The open was a grind, with retail covering shorts and options players moving inventory.
As can be seen in the attached chart. Price hit my S/R lines and retested a couple times. The rest is up to the individual player
$Vold and $ADD kept me out of the early chop and confirmed both retests down.
For those who watch other indexes, the $SOX (Semiconductors) also gave a nice signal.
Close to another 10 pointer
Here's a simple chart showing price bouncing off the 200 just now
Unfortunately there is a single above near the IB low (917.50), and THAT combination (confluence) usually signals resistance.
If that single fills in, I should get a nice ride back up to the highs
I would say the odds are against me, so my position size is small and for those who would ask why take the trade? I already have a payday, so I get to take this one knowing I can scratch the trade if I need to.
Edit
and as it worked out I got two points best scale out on the front end, and scratched the balance as it retraced to my entry
Quote from stevesbg:
Got a moment here before things heat up
The open was a grind, with retail covering shorts and options players moving inventory.
As can be seen in the attached chart. Price hit my S/R lines and retested a couple times. The rest is up to the individual player
$Vold and $ADD kept me out of the early chop and confirmed both retests down.
For those who watch other indexes, the $SOX (Semiconductors) also gave a nice signal.
Close to another 10 pointer
__________________
...
Quote from babykuttan:
leapup,
in the bottom you can subscribe to a thread and you can always go to your accout and view them, also you can email every time someone posts on a thread you subscribed to.
hope you're enjoying Generals thread. I am and its is interesting.
hope it helps.
JT
But, I owe you one! Thanks! My computer skills...
Today's a good day. All automated systems are go. No problems and I have some free time on my hands
So I sit down next to my good buddies (lets call them "Bob & Ted" as in Bob & Ted's Excellent Adventure). This morning they are bitching about the fact that I have them using a very minimal trading screen (couple of simple charts and market internals). The chief complaint is that I have "better tools" and so I have an unfair advantage.....
So I close down my workstation, pull out my laptop and put on a single screen, one chart, a 9 period ema with a close envelope around it and the default MACD on the bottom pane...thats all.
The "boys" laugh about this and say, "we are going to kick your butt today" and I say, "have at it tigers, this is probably the best chance you will ever get"
On the attached chart you can see where "Bob & Ted" got flushed out on a retrace. Also marked where I added to my position on weakness.
Scaled out half of my position along the way. As you can see this is going to be another 10 point move.
Bob & Ted are buying lunch and ironically they are happy as clams because they made some money....
Update on that short trade.
A bit disappointed because I missed an opportunity to scale in some more.
We have a confirmed single so I may reverse if it doesn't fill in the pit. Although I am now looking ahead for 20 pts, the market could reverse at or near 903.75.
We'll see
and we have 15 pts on this last stab down.
I have inventory to park but ideally would like to place it down a few points further. I am going to hold and wait until I get better clarity.
"Bob & Ted" wanted to go home early, but I did not let them. Naturally, as price continues further from their exit they seem less impressed with the day's profits.
This is turning out to be an excellent lesson about "expectations". Namely the market couldn't care less what you think it will do....If you "cash in" thinking you have caught a pretty good move, you may be surprised when you come back to your screen later on. The reason we want to milk trades (by scaling out) is because we have to overcome expenses. Most of the outlier trades happen in bunches during a year. knowing that, especially if you are a retail trader, you better not give up on a trade until that final bell rings. Any individual trade could be the one that really makes your year.
End of the session and at about 1:11 or so price hit its low of the day at 887.75
I was able to unload inventory from 890 down to 888 on that last move. My best scale out was 888.50
So I missed my 20 pts by a few but I got my message across to my buddies (bill & ted) lol. They took 4 pts early in the session and gave back half of that on poor countertrend entries during the chop. I am pretty sure they were pissed that they couldn't find a way to get back on that short earlier, but thats the way this market acts. Often times, if you get on the right side early you have a nice winner. Conversely if you wait, or you wuss out on a winner too early, you have the unfortunate experience of watching the rest of the day as the market moves away from you.
Chart attached
nice trade and nice hold. i entered at the IB retest on the 1min and then got out BE on the pullback at 898. obviously i should have held. what would have made you hold through it? breadth was really really weak, but i saw some stuff going neutral on the retest so i went out BE and couldnt get a reentry with a good setup.
Hi XB
I was "restricted" to a 2 min chart today, no MP no market internals, etc. so I don't know that my opinion has much weight to it, but I can suggest a couple of things.
First, you may benefit from watching $VOLD and $ADD if you have Esignal. They don't lie. Normally, on the open I have them both on 1 min charts. After that I change to 13 min charts and watch how each one acts during pullbacks. The other alternatives include cumulative delta (volume tools on Linnsoft's IRT package) and Market Delta footprint charts both of which have the capacity to show what traded at each price point.
In truth I did have an unfair advantage today, because I keep track of where resting buy and sell volume exists. I didn't have to have that data on a real time basis, because I knew where to expect a move. Its called doing your homework the night before.
Unfortunately speaking of "homework", I have to do some chores here in the office before I can leave, so I will have to sign off (or camp out here tonight).
I will try to post later in the evening.
Best to all
Stevesbg
Steve,
I havent tried VOLD. Im familiar with it, but for internals I use ADD, VIX, TRIN. Trin I believe gives a similar read to VOLD. (correct me if I'm wrong). Do you use volume profile to see where the volume is or to keep track of it or is there another way? I would have loved to have held that IB retest if I had a more confluence
$V0LD is up volume minus down volume on the NYSE. It updates every 6 seconds
$ADD is the number of advancing issues minue the number of declining issues. It also updates every 6 seconds.
These two indicators will sometimes diverge. When they do it often means that institutions are either selling into a rising market (as when $VOLD is up and $ADD is flat or down) or quietly buying (establishing positions) in a declining market ($VOLD is down & $ADD is moving up).
$TRIN is not in my opinion as useful as it used to be. I do not use it.
$Vix is also in my opinion of questionable value intraday
$TICK is useful if one knows how to read it.
$TICKI can tell you that program trades are executing. Readings above 18 often signal program execution.
Of these, I prefer $VOLD and $ADD on a 1 min basis on the open. Once I am filled I watch these two and make my decisions based on how they confirm or deny my bias long or short. When the market has passed 15 minutes I change from 1 min to 13 minute candles and I add an 89 period ema. As the $VOLD approaches and tests the EMA, I generally see significant changes in trend. I try to be on the same page as the $VOLD, long when it is above the 89 period ema, short when it is below. When both $VOLD and $ADD are moving together I consider that a strong indication of trend.
I use various means (volume at price, volume profile, market delta, cumulative delta, etc) to tell me how many contracts have transacted at the highs and lows. This tells me whether the locals or institutions have found buyers or sellers at these important price points. If for instance I am considering a short position at a potential high of the day, I look to see how many contracts "go off" at that point. If only a few contracts move, it tells me that there aren't many buyers (or stops) waiting there. That means I probably can enter short with minimal risk.
I hope that helps
Stevesbg
Interesting thoughts. What are significant numbers with VOLD? Which are the extreme above/below numbers to throw strong bearish/bullishness?
Do you use VOLD for entry and how tight do you get your stops? I usually target an entry on a retest before it gets there once I see selling/buying coming onto the tape with a MACD rolling over for a bit more confirmation. I also need a pause or pullback with VIX and ADD showing up. I enter on 1 min retests usually.
Volume is variable both seasonally and day to day, and that is why I use the 89 period ema instead of specific volume levels
As seen in previous posts, my $VOLD and $ADD are setup as candlestick charts with only the 89 period ema in place. I react to tests of the 89 ema, using it for confirmation at entry, to keep me out of a bad trade, or to exit.
Just finished doing my homework and here are the S/R lines by time frame
First the daily chart
and the 60 min chart
120 minute chart
180 min chart
240 min chart
There were no additions to this chart
Quote from stevesbg:
240 min chart
There were no additions to this chart
Yes sir, I look at each time frame and add S/R as I see appropriate.
If you stop and think about it as you progress to smaller time frames, you are likely to see more granularity and so there are going to be more places to put S/R lines. There is an art to this.
I try to restrict S/R lines to places where I see previous turning points or where I can connect two or more previous highs or lows
I hope that helps
so it is a timeframe confluence? how do you handle it if there is a 240 min level at say 901 and 60min at 904. They are close, but would you put in 2 separate lines for them or just 1? My guess is 2 and then watch price action?
Quote from xburbx:
so it is a timeframe confluence? how do you handle it if there is a 240 min level at say 901 and 60min at 904. They are close, but would you put in 2 separate lines for them or just 1? My guess is 2 and then watch price action?
Today was a "textbook" day previous to an economic event or report.
First we have the "context" as follows;
Previous day was volatile with good size range to the downside.
Most participants expected a continuation move off the open
Instead, market volatility contracts and we have less volatility and a "dull" low volume market in front of the FOMC statement tomorrow.
I have marked the overnight highs at 894.25. I always look for previous highs/lows in the premarket just prior to the open. They are the most obvious targets for tests and retests
In the attached chart you can see how price opened near the support line but then probed up to test the previous high. Just coincidentally price "happened" to be in the vicinity of that previous high just as the housing report was released. A short entry there took only 1 tick heat before moving down to test the bottom of that range and test the previous lows.
As I have said a few times before, I am always looking for 10 pts. and again we see (just coincidence I am sure) that price continues its move south until we have a 10 move off of the high.
As seen in the chart, price then moves back to test the low end of the range, comes back to retest, setting up a nice long trade back into the range.
These elements are obvious in hindsight OR if you have sufficient experience to anticipate the moves. If you stop and think about it the choices are limited. Price either moves up, consolidates or continues its trend move down. I was taught that "markets breath, just like people", and this is where the market decided to "catch its breath", prior to the event tomorrow
Seeya
Ok then FOMC announcement is an interesting event day.
Typically we have low vol (both volatilty & volume) until the release
The "prototype" is to take it down the day before and then mark it up into the announcement.
The suggested strategy is to
1. know the context (what I've just stated)
2. prepare by getting your S/R lines in place
3. process the data before the market opens
4. develop an action plan
For me the "action plan" is simple
We look for price to consolidate while the market waits for the release. The tendency is to move the market up (slow grind up) pre the release. So we look for a test of previous high or low to confirm or deny our plan.
The attached chart shows the premarket, with S/R lines, pivots(daily, weekly, monthly) and a 200 ema in place
Based on the data at hand premarket, we make the inference that price is going to follow the established protocol and grind up.
If thats true we are going to look for a place to get long.
We notice that in the premarket, they have marked it up to previous resistance at 900 and then pulled back. This pullback is one of the places where we might find a nice entry.
Now in this next attached chart, the ONLY thing we have added is a 9 period ema (displaced +2 points).
Notice how the market opens and then moves down to test that 9 period ema
Then we advance to the next bar (same chart) and we can see
the result of that test. Price moves up off the open to again challenge previous resistance at 900. A long entry at the test area (896.25) would have resulted in a profitable position right away.
and we advance the chart a few bars further.
Here you can see that the long entry at 896.25 (approx) would now (if held) have hit 10 points profit. You can also observe that price has now tested previous resistance (line we put in prior to the market open). This is the natural place to exit the trade, keeping a few contracts in place in case in continues.
and advancing the chart a few more bars, we see the pullback is actually a trend change, as price takes out the 9 period moving average.
Unfortunately I have to stop here. I have a strategy to trade the actual announcement, but I am not willing to reveal it. I hope the comments to date have been of help.
The main message (the big picture) is
1. "find a logical way to approach the markets"
2. "find a logical way to view the data"
3. "prepare yourself prior to the open"
4. "plan your trades based on what you expect the market to do"
5. "if the market does what you expect....execute with discipline"
6. "if the market surprises you....adapt and change your plan"
7. "when you get into a profitable trade, hold it.
8. "when you get into a loser....honor your stops.
A retail trader can do some of these things, but is inconsistent. This inconsistent behavior can often be attributed to lack of discipline and/or lack of emtional control. A professional does all of it (and a little more) consistently. If you understand this, one way to "get there" is to make a check list and move methodically through it, until you have each point under control.
At this point is it probably a good idea for the moderator to close the thead.
Wishing everyone the best of luck
Stevesbg
Exceptional thread, stevesbg.
If possible, a moderator should bump it periodically, so that the new traders will have access to the knowledge base.
Good trading
__________________
...
Yea, thanks for the great thread Steve.
Just tried to PM you but it said you arent receving messages. If you are leaving, could you shoot me a quick PM for a couple last questions?
Thanks!
Quote from stevesbg:
Once you orient yourself to the market on the longer term, you assume that the odds favor one side more than the other.
In this case we believe that the odds favor the long side. Although we take trades on both sides we may size our long positions bigger and we may give them more wiggle room (bigger stops).
One method that works consistently well is to combine signals from several methods to find an entry. When two or more of these signals occur in close physical relationship to each other we believe that the chances of success are increased, because there are likely to be more traders on the trade.
We look for signals using the following sources
1. Market Profile numbers
2. Pivots
3. EMAs
4. Ergodic Indicator
5. MACD indicator
6. Events
Where two or more of these "line up" in close proximity, we call that "confluence" and assign that setup higher odds of success.
Just finished reading this thread.
First of all, I want to thank you for taking the time to make an effort to get a serious trading related discussion going, a rare in ET.
Now, onto my comments
* Indicators over price action calls ? Clearly at a disadvantage here.
* I never understood why the OPs of threads like this manually annotate charts with entries, exits, adds, etc. Why not post the real execution plots, most charting platforms do this for you automatically, not only does it add credibility but it makes your job easier. Many will even allow to hide size. Yes, Im a skeptic, this is a trading, will always be a skeptic in this department.
* Whenever you mark S/R I see that you can tell, with impressive skill, how S or R is going to hold, in hindsight to me and to all, it looks tremendous, but in realtime, I see price testing R from below, and, there it goes, taking out my stop, yet on the manually annotated charts you guys got incredible skill. Please explain how you are able to do this, or I'm going to call tremendous bullshit.
Good theories, I don't buy the executions.
Sorry.
__________________
Nexen
Daytrader not paper
Quote from Nexen:
[B]Just finished reading this thread.
First of all, I want to thank you for taking the time to make an effort to get a serious trading related discussion going, a rare in ET.
Now, onto my comments
* Indicators over price action calls ? Clearly at a disadvantage here.
* I never understood why the OPs of threads like this manually annotate charts with entries, exits, adds, etc. Why not post the real execution plots, most charting platforms do this for you automatically, not only does it add credibility but it makes your job easier. Many will even allow to hide size. Yes, Im a skeptic, this is a trading, will always be a skeptic in this department.
* Whenever you mark S/R I see that you can tell, with impressive skill, how S or R is going to hold, in hindsight to me and to all, it looks tremendous, but in realtime, I see price testing R from below, and, there it goes, taking out my stop, yet on the manually annotated charts you guys got incredible skill. Please explain how you are able to do this, or I'm going to call tremendous bullshit.
Good theories, I don't buy the executions.
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
Exceptional thread, stevesbg.
If possible, a moderator should bump it periodically, so that the new traders will have access to the knowledge base.
Good trading
Quote from ivanbaj:
Thanks!
Quote from The General:
The General
__________________
...
What is wrong boys-the 15 min clock stop?
The General
Nexen - if you know a bit more about MP you would know that his entries are based on indicators and internals, but the trades to take are based on MP for the most part. his stuff is good and legit
Quote from The General:
What is wrong boys-the 15 min clock stop?
The General
__________________
...
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
LOL
Better than "the general's" (aka ProfLogic) perfect charts ...
P.S. They are sooo perfect he spends all day and all night posting on ET, while selling them in seminars.
ROTFLMAO!
Quote from xburbx:
Nexen - if you know a bit more about MP you would know that his entries are based on indicators and internals, but the trades to take are based on MP for the most part. his stuff is good and legit
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
LOL
Better than "the general's" (aka ProfLogic) perfect charts ...
P.S. They are sooo perfect he spends all day and all night posting on ET, while selling them in seminars.
ROTFLMAO!
__________________
The Market is constant chaos and randomness . . . but if you find what is perfectly consistent in that chaos . . . and then trade it, trusting only yourself and what you SEE, the cloudiness the randomness causes will subside. . . . Wm Schamp (Me)
"Not everything that can be counted counts. Not everything that counts can be counted" . . . Albert Einstein
Dilute simplicity and it becomes complex. . . . me again
"I never saw an instance of one of two disputants convincing the other by argument." - Thomas Jefferson
Thread closed by request of OP.
__________________
There is no spoon.
All times are GMT. The time now is 06:31 AM.