Forums (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/index.php)
- Journals (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?forumid=29)
-- Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009 (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=150396)
Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
Another year another target. Last year, I set out to Take 103K to 1.2million by Year End 2008. Did not quite pan out, but was able to return 447% at the end of the 50 weeks. Of more interest was the second half (week 26-50), where I started with 144K, and made 412K (286%) before withdrawals. That is a compounded weekly rate of 5.5%. Again, I could not pull off a similar performance in the first half. The target this year assumes a 5% compounded rate for the next 50 weeks.
Hopefully, this year there will be greater commitment to execution discipline. I shall once again go with the expectation of a 40% maximum drawdown. Amount of risk taken will be proportional to the size of buffer (above opening 320K) I have in my account and recent performance, subject to not exceeding the optimal fraction (Last year, the optimal fraction was 61% for options and 156% for stocks - did not use anything close to that in real trading).
It is possible I split the account or close it out altogether sometime in the year, which could mean ending the journal, since there would be no continuity on the target. Meanwhile, feel free to join along the ride.
Good luck Neke!
Best wishes NEKE, you actually inspired me to push on last year, after a single trade shafted me for a decent sum.......
__________________
we don't know that we don't know what we think we know.....
Image omitted in earlier post
wish you all the best for your 10-bagger endeavor.
neke, imho, you are the only one here among all the charlatans, who talks the talk and walks the walk.
Best wishes in 2009.
awesome. I love seeing someone succeed in an unconventional way. sadly my trading strategies have to revolve around more conservative money management. gl and good trading!!
glad to see this 09 version!!! good luck neke . you're living the dream man.
First post here, subscribing to the thread. Learned a lot by reading the last two years' adventures you've posted.
so what goodies did you buy yourself with the profits?
You are the only thread I read nowadays and wish you all the best toward your new goal.
I wish you goodluck with your trading. I have no doubt that if you stick to what has been working for you from the 2nd half of last year, you will achieve your goal.
I must also say that I admire transparency, it's impressive.
Again Goodluck.
Best of luck to you, Neke
I would wait until the S&P500 revisits old lows and then find a stock in the single digits that may bounce like one of the big mone center banks and go long or simply throw it into a 3x ultrashort now and watch it grow.
I look at xtrends.blogspot.com for ideas.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TAnfo557U...n.+11+18.44.gif
Neke, Thanks for posting your results. It inspires me to keep on trading. It is by far my favorite thread here on ET. I wish you the best of luck for 2009.
Re: Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
Quote from neke:
[B
It is possible I split the account or close it out altogether sometime in the year, which could mean ending the journal, since there would be no continuity on the target. Meanwhile, feel free to join along the ride.
[/B]
Re: Re: Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
Quote from quicktrader12:
Why you thinking of closing the account?
Gluck!
__________________
If you can't beat them join them, he said as he was writing his application to Rotterinvest!
Re: Re: Re: Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
No more IBKR.
Quote from neke:
Closing it and opening account with a different broker. That is a possibility.
Neke,
Wish you the best of luck in 2009. I really want you to show those 20-20 pros and frauds like Madoff how to do it fair and square. Also, you will be doing this completely by yourself as an outsider of wallstreet..
DRYS
Re: Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
hi kele, can you explain what this means? if it was explained before, can you give me the link? thanks.
Quote from neke:
Amount of risk taken will be proportional to the size of buffer (above opening 320K) I have in my account and recent performance, subject to not exceeding the optimal fraction (Last year, the optimal fraction was 61% for options and 156% for stocks - did not use anything close to that in real trading).
Re: Re: Re: Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
That would necessitate ending this journal?
Quote from neke:
Closing it and opening account with a different broker. That is a possibility.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
I agree with wahtthe. Seems odd that opening a new account would lead to ending the journal.
Neke, if you aren't getting anything out of it any more, why do it this year? Sounds like your heart isn't in it this year.
Quote from whatthe:
That would necessitate ending this journal?
__________________
sophiekay
Weekly Update for week 1/50 ended 1/17/2009
Ugly week, down 19K (6%). Not exactly how I wanted to start the year.
The major setback was on Monday when I tried to fade the sell off. Too leveraged: kind of forgot I have no buffer, as I was starting with a fresh capital base. Tried to come back later in the week on reduced leverage. Really putting in a lot of work into deriving a formula that should govern my leverage. It should depend on strategy, historical performance of strategy, buffer above starting capital, and recent performance of strategy.
code:
Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain for the week -18,534 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 301,530 Number of Trades 23 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE POT 2009-01-15-10-33-35 2009-01-15-14-01-38 3000 195480 206279 10784 LONG SZCAD 2009-01-15-10-36-40 2009-01-15-14-02-34 10000 15400 22500 6936 SPY CALL ----------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 2009-01-12-09-45-51 2009-01-12-15-43-09 7000 616843 606830 -10030 LONG SZCAJ 2009-01-12-10-08-27 2009-01-12-15-42-35 35000 58138 38500 -20191 SPY CALL
Re: Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
Quote from neke:
The target this year assumes a 5% compounded rate for the next 50 weeks.
Quote from neke:
Really putting in a lot of work into deriving a formula that should govern my leverage. It should depend on strategy, historical performance of strategy, buffer above starting capital, and recent performance of strategy.
Re: Re: Re: Re: Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
Quote from whatthe:
That would necessitate ending this journal?
Quote from BlindLemonBoosh:
May I suggest a substitution of 'recent volatility of strategy' for 'recent performance of strategy' in your leverage formula?
Re: Re: Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
Quote from bidask:
hi kele, can you explain what this means? if it was explained before, can you give me the link? thanks.
Quote from neke:
Actually when I mentioned historical or recent performance, I am actually looking at the optimal fraction for the strategy over given time frames, which depends in some ways on volatility. Example options have lower optimal fraction than stocks, because the percentage moves in the positions are much bigger. (You could buy an option at $3 and easily sell at 0.30 one day later (90% move): that is hard to come by in stocks.). Now I am analysing the optimal fraction by strategies (several option strategies and several stock strategies).
It was a rocky start for most people. You did something truly amazing last year I believe you will do it again.
After some thought, the fraction, f, to use on a trade shall be a function of 3 variables for stocks, and 4 variables for options:
f = g(cratio, histf(strategy), recentf(strategy)) --stock
f = g(cratio, histf(strategy), recentf(strategy), daystoexp) --options
The meaning of each variable is below:
cratio
This is the ratio of current account value at the time of the trade to the starting value of the thread (320K). The idea is to increase fraction used as the buffer increases, subject to not exceeding the optimal. So at the start of the thread, cratio was 1 for the first trade. At the moment it is about 0.94. The methods calls for extra-conservatism when the fraction is low.
histf(strategy)
This is the historical optimizing fraction for the strategy, which is recalculated after each trade using the strategy. (Example if a strategy has two trades: bought at 10, sold at 12 in the first trade, and then bought at 120, sold at 102 for the second trade, that is 20% gain followed by 15% loss in the underlying, the optimal fraction - what maximizes the total return compounded - is 0.83. This means total return is maximized by using 83% of account value per trade). There is an absolute maximum of 3.0 for stocks and 0.80 for options (arbitrarily chosen). If optimal fraction is negative, a value of 0 will be used. Adjustments will be made where there are not enough historical data (10 is my minimum) for a credible fraction. Fortunately almost all my strategies have enough historical trades to pass that test. The higher this value, the higher the value of f and vice versa.
recentf(strategy)
This is the recent optimizing fraction for the strategy, also recalculated after each trade based on the strategy. This only takes into account recent trades (I am leaning on using only the three most recent trades). If the most recent trade reveal a 0 optimal (negative or zero edge), the value of f will go down. Conversely the higher the value. The absolute maximum imposed by the prior paragraph applies here too.
daystoexp
For options the days to expiration determines what fraction that can be used. The closer to expiration of the option, the faster the percentage moves on the option premium, consequently the smaller shall be the value of f.
Next I shall look at my results for last year,and try to figure out a good formula for the function g as a combination of the above variables.
Its time to get out now. Your down 18 grand and next week might be another 18 grand. Next thing you know you will be like Lenny Dykstra getting sued by the brokerages because you blew the account and couldnt repay the margin loan.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 1/50 ended 1/17/2009
Ugly week, down 19K (6%). Not exactly how I wanted to start the year.
The major setback was on Monday when I tried to fade the sell off. Too leveraged: kind of forgot I have no buffer, as I was starting with a fresh capital base. Tried to come back later in the week on reduced leverage. Really putting in a lot of work into deriving a formula that should govern my leverage. It should depend on strategy, historical performance of strategy, buffer above starting capital, and recent performance of strategy.
code:
Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain for the week -18,534 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 301,530 Number of Trades 23 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE POT 2009-01-15-10-33-35 2009-01-15-14-01-38 3000 195480 206279 10784 LONG SZCAD 2009-01-15-10-36-40 2009-01-15-14-02-34 10000 15400 22500 6936 SPY CALL ----------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 2009-01-12-09-45-51 2009-01-12-15-43-09 7000 616843 606830 -10030 LONG SZCAJ 2009-01-12-10-08-27 2009-01-12-15-42-35 35000 58138 38500 -20191 SPY CALL
Quote from Port1385:
Its time to get out now. Your down 18 grand and next week might be another 18 grand. Next thing you know you will be like Lenny Dykstra getting sued by the brokerages because you blew the account and couldnt repay the margin loan.
Hi neke,
Just a reminder. You owe IRS $4063.58 transaction tax for the week ended 1/17/2009 based on your trading amount (not including your option trading) of $1,625,432.00.
Hope this will never happen to you and to every traders. But it looks like the current situation is in favor of this new tax. It will be interesting to see how you can survive while this new law is passed. I will stop trading immediately and close my brokerage account when this happens.
Gook luck
Quote from aqtrader:
Hi neke,
Just a reminder. You owe IRS $4063.58 transaction tax for the week ended 1/17/2009 based on your trading amount (not including your option trading) of $1,625,432.00.
Hope this will never happen to you and to every traders. But it looks like the current situation is in favor of this new tax. It will be interesting to see how you can survive while this new law is passed. I will stop trading immediately and close my brokerage account when this happens.
Gook luck
Quote from aqtrader:
Hi neke,
Just a reminder. You owe IRS $4063.58 transaction tax for the week ended 1/17/2009 based on your trading amount (not including your option trading) of $1,625,432.00.
Hope this will never happen to you and to every traders. But it looks like the current situation is in favor of this new tax. It will be interesting to see how you can survive while this new law is passed. I will stop trading immediately and close my brokerage account when this happens.
Gook luck
Quote from Trader KGB:
Why do you insist on trolling every single thread on ET? You're pathetic.
Quote from aqtrader:
Hi neke,
Just a reminder. You owe IRS $4063.58 transaction tax for the week ended 1/17/2009 based on your trading amount (not including your option trading) of $1,625,432.00.
Hope this will never happen to you and to every traders. But it looks like the current situation is in favor of this new tax. It will be interesting to see how you can survive while this new law is passed. I will stop trading immediately and close my brokerage account when this happens.
Gook luck
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 1/50 ended 1/17/2009
Ugly week, down 19K (6%). Not exactly how I wanted to start the year.
The major setback was on Monday when I tried to fade the sell off. Too leveraged: kind of forgot I have no buffer, as I was starting with a fresh capital base. Tried to come back later in the week on reduced leverage. Really putting in a lot of work into deriving a formula that should govern my leverage. It should depend on strategy, historical performance of strategy, buffer above starting capital, and recent performance of strategy.
code:
Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain for the week -18,534 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 301,530 Number of Trades 23 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE POT 2009-01-15-10-33-35 2009-01-15-14-01-38 3000 195480 206279 10784 LONG SZCAD 2009-01-15-10-36-40 2009-01-15-14-02-34 10000 15400 22500 6936 SPY CALL ----------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 2009-01-12-09-45-51 2009-01-12-15-43-09 7000 616843 606830 -10030 LONG SZCAJ 2009-01-12-10-08-27 2009-01-12-15-42-35 35000 58138 38500 -20191 SPY CALL
Quote from Nikolas G:
Actually that buffer you talk about is only not there if you section your performance off on a yearly basis. However, this is arbitrary. I am mentioning this, since this might have a positive effect on your psychology when you leverage in the beginning. The buffer has been there ever since you started your blog 3 years ago.
Quote from neke:
Yes, I rebalance on a yearly basis! So as far as it goes, I am starting on a clean slate.
Quote from BigFunky:
Given that you need to compound so frequently, would it not be sensible to 'start on a clean slate' every week?
Weekly Update for week 2/50 ended 1/24/2009
Moderately positive week, up 9.6K (3.2%).
Made it Tues/Wed, lost it Thur, and gained some back on Friday. The market is definitely begging for direction.
code:
Opening Balance: 301,530 Net gain for the week 9,626 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 311,156 Number of Trades 23 Number of Profitable Trades 12 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 01/24/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) -8,908 (Down 2.8%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 311,156 Number of Trades 46 Number of Profitable Trades 23 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SPY 2009-01-21-14-32-13 2009-01-21-15-59-20 8000 661960 672000 10016 LONG --------------------------------------------------------------------------- STT 2009-01-20-11-09-02 2009-01-20-14-37-56 6000 111465 105271 -6208 LONG
Necessary Weekly Compounding To Reach Goal: 5.17%
Quote from neke:
After some thought, the fraction, f, to use on a trade shall be a function of 3 variables for stocks, and 4 variables for options:
f = g(cratio, histf(strategy), recentf(strategy)) --stock
f = g(cratio, histf(strategy), recentf(strategy), daystoexp) --options
code:
cratio (cratio^2)/(1+cratio^2) 0.5 0.20 1.0 0.50 2.0 0.80 10.0 0.99
Weekly Update for week 3/50 ended 1/31/2009
Nice week, up 25K (8%).
Very good win rate (80%). Lots of trades on SPY as well, with a tendency to exceed my intended size because of averaging up/down: biggest was 8K on Monday, while I lost almost as much on the same SPY earlier. The market see-sawed and ended almost even (open to close). Closed the first position at a loss (8K). Had the good sense to come back immediately in the same direction (LONG) as it appeared I was just shaken out. Glad AMZN came up on Friday, and dished out some gains in stock and options.
code:
Opening Balance: 311,156 Net gain for the week 25,279 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 336,435 Number of Trades 24 Number of Profitable Trades 19 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 01/31/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 16,371 (Up 5.1%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 336,435 Number of Trades 70 Number of Profitable Trades 42 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SPY 2009-01-26-14-05-13 2009-01-26-15-33-30 8000 664230 672500 8245 LONG ZQNBK 2009-01-30-09-36-00 2009-01-30-09-42-05 10000 49956 56690 6563 AMZN CALL --------------------------------------------- CAT 2009-01-26-11-54-47 2009-01-26-13-52-15 8000 257800 254495 -3327 LONG SPY 2009-01-26-12-25-51 2009-01-26-13-51-46 9000 760689 752943 -7771 LONG
well done.
Do you hold any trade overnight or are these all intraday?
Necessary Weekly Compounding To Reach Goal: 5.11%
Hey, stop
Hey, stop, BlindLemonBoosh !
How far are you away from your 3,5 million $?
__________________
Lojze
neke are you a PA only trader, and why do you like spy so
much?..i can think of some bigger movers. But great job anyway!
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from cashmoney69:
neke are you a PA only trader, and why do you like spy so
much?..i can think of some bigger movers. But great job anyway!
Neke, I notice that you seem to be taking on less risk this year... Fewer and smaller option positions... More individual securities. What is the reasoning behind this?
__________________
sophiekay
Quote from short&naked:
SPY is very liquid. If he keeps it up it will be the only instrument he'll be trading.
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from cashmoney69:
ya but so is intel and the q's.....
Quote from short&naked:
But not even as close to being as liquid. And my point was that as he increases his position he will incur more slippage trading single stocks. Why do you think that hedge funds tend to focus mainly on S&P futures...
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Limit orders are for amateurs. Market order in to buy and stop-loss to sell. Only way to trade.
I place a market order in to buy then set my stop-loss to sell and thats it. It cant be done with thinly traded securities.
As Niki uses more and more leverage and $$$, he cant utilize thinly traded stocks. It would take him about 2-3 hours to get out of a stock position trading less then 1 million in volume.
Pretty much he is limited to 5 million+ stocks like Apple and Google.
http://finance.yahoo.com/actives?e=us
Quote from Port1385:
Limit orders are for amateurs. Market order in to buy and stop-loss to sell. Only way to trade.
I place a market order in to buy then set my stop-loss to sell and thats it. It cant be done with thinly traded securities.
As Niki uses more and more leverage and $$$, he cant utilize thinly traded stocks. It would take him about 2-3 hours to get out of a stock position trading less then 1 million in volume.
Pretty much he is limited to 5 million+ stocks like Apple and Google.
http://finance.yahoo.com/actives?e=us
Quote from cashmoney69:
Neke isnt a day trader so slippage isnt really that big an issue, and if it was, he can always use limit orders which im sure he does anyway.
Quote from robbie380:
rofl he doesn't trade that much size. it doesn't take too long to get out of 9000 shares on something that trades a million a day. the liquidity is there.
Quote from short&naked:
You'd be surprised how quickly slippage can compound against you over time.
Quote from cashmoney69:
Neke isnt a day trader so slippage isnt really that big an issue, and if it was, he can always use limit orders which im sure he does anyway.
Quote from robbie380:
i trade size bigger than that. it's not a big deal if you know the situations you are getting into and know the stocks. when you get in the trade you already have a decent idea of what kind of slippage you will generate getting in and out.
Yeah, but Neke is aiming to be profitable. He simply cant afford the losses that you incur with each trade.
Quote from robbie380:
i trade size bigger than that. it's not a big deal if you know the situations you are getting into and know the stocks. when you get in the trade you already have a decent idea of what kind of slippage you will generate getting in and out.
Quote from short&naked:
Knowing how much slippage you will incur doesn't change the fact that it will have a huge effect on returns 20 years down the road.
Quote from Port1385:
Yeah, but Neke is aiming to be profitable. He simply cant afford the losses that you incur with each trade.
Quote from robbie380:
you do understand that it is more important to get out of the trade when it is going against you rather than to worry about a couple pennies in slippage, right? if you sit there trying to screw around getting hit on the bid when you are trying to cover a short rather than just crossing the offer up by a nickle or dime to get out of 10k shares then you run the risk of someone else taking the liquidity you need to get out on and you also run the risk the trade moving further against you. further you also cost yourself time by dicking around on an exit for too long rather than continuing to look for more opportunities.
Its so much easier trading the SPY and its leveraged counterparts. The SPY is most often studied and somewhat predictable. You know there is more downroom to go in the current spy. This next week will be filled with bad news sending us down and the wiseman will be in the 3x bear etf that goes against the spy. Then when it all bottoms it will be time to get into our single digit faves to ride it back up. Should be a fun year for Neke.
For example, ALL suddenly dropped 20-30% in two days with no prior indications that it would do this. Individual stocks are simply not predictable where as leveraged etfs are somewhat more of a stable and predictable platform.
Im glad to hear that Robbie is doing well in his papertrading account. While he is at it, he could start posting his trades publicly to one of the many trading websites out there so we can see his performance versus hearing how good he is and his size.
Quote from Port1385:
Its so much easier trading the SPY and its leveraged counterparts. The SPY is most often studied and somewhat predictable. You know there is more downroom to go in the current spy. This next week will be filled with bad news sending us down and the wiseman will be in the 3x bear etf that goes against the spy. Then when it all bottoms it will be time to get into our single digit faves to ride it back up. Should be a fun year for Neke.
For example, ALL suddenly dropped 20-30% in two days with no prior indications that it would do this. Individual stocks are simply not predictable where as leveraged etfs are somewhat more of a stable and predictable platform.
Im glad to hear that Robbie is doing well in his papertrading account. While he is at it, he could start posting his trades publicly to one of the many trading websites out there so we can see his performance versus hearing how good he is and his size.
Quote from Port1385:
Its so much easier trading the SPY and its leveraged counterparts. The SPY is most often studied and somewhat predictable. You know there is more downroom to go in the current spy. This next week will be filled with bad news sending us down and the wiseman will be in the 3x bear etf that goes against the spy. Then when it all bottoms it will be time to get into our single digit faves to ride it back up. Should be a fun year for Neke.
For example, ALL suddenly dropped 20-30% in two days with no prior indications that it would do this. Individual stocks are simply not predictable where as leveraged etfs are somewhat more of a stable and predictable platform.
Im glad to hear that Robbie is doing well in his papertrading account. While he is at it, he could start posting his trades publicly to one of the many trading websites out there so we can see his performance versus hearing how good he is and his size.
Quote from short&naked:
Do you hold any trade overnight or are these all intraday?
Quote from cashmoney69:
neke are you a PA only trader, and why do you like spy so
much?..i can think of some bigger movers. But great job anyway!
Quote from sophiekay:
Neke, I notice that you seem to be taking on less risk this year... Fewer and smaller option positions... More individual securities. What is the reasoning behind this?
This is a prudent approach Neke. I was biting my nails every Fri. last year, knowing that you were as much as 100% invested in 1 or 2 option position.
I find that I make less mistakes when risk management rules are adhered to. Would be interested to see how it works for you.
Quote from neke:
If you look at my prior sizing analysis, I should take smaller risk (position size) as my account size is just too close to my starting capital (that must be protected at all cost). Still working on completing and putting into effect my position sizing rules.
__________________
sophiekay
Weekly Update for week 4/50 ended 02/07/2009
Another nice week, up 25K (7%).
Pleased there were no stand-out losers except the SPY put on Friday. Incidentally biggest gainer was POT put on the same day. Emphasis this week was reducing risk through reduction in holding time frame. While it works to give a smoother curve, some potential big winners were cut short.
code:
Opening Balance: 336,435 Net gain for the week 24,942 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 361,377 Number of Trades 17 Number of Profitable Trades 12 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 02/07/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 41,313 (Up 13%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 361,377 Number of Trades 87 Number of Profitable Trades 54 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE PYPNR 2009-02-06-09-41-25 2009-02-06-10-55-54 20000 84000 96000 11678 POT PUT SPY 2009-02-02-13-57-00 2009-02-02-15-40-35 8000 655520 664000 8456 LONG ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SZCNH 2009-02-06-12-30-45 2009-02-06-15-39-26 60000 138000 132616 -6313 SPY PUT
I don't want to clutter your thread with pointless posts, I just have to say this though!
Ride On Neke!!!! Keep it up, very inspirational to those trying to succeed in the markets!
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 4/50 ended 02/07/2009
Another nice week, up 25K (7%).
Pleased there were no stand-out losers except the SPY put on Friday. Incidentally biggest gainer was POT put on the same day. Emphasis this week was reducing risk through reduction in holding time frame. While it works to give a smoother curve, some potential big winners were cut short.
code:
Opening Balance: 336,435 Net gain for the week 24,942 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 361,377 Number of Trades 17 Number of Profitable Trades 12 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 02/07/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 41,313 (Up 13%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 361,377 Number of Trades 87 Number of Profitable Trades 54 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE PYPNR 2009-02-06-09-41-25 2009-02-06-10-55-54 20000 84000 96000 11678 POT PUT SPY 2009-02-02-13-57-00 2009-02-02-15-40-35 8000 655520 664000 8456 LONG ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SZCNH 2009-02-06-12-30-45 2009-02-06-15-39-26 60000 138000 132616 -6313 SPY PUT
first, yours is the only journal i've followed on ET; as i believe it's authentic as well as unique.
couple questions about your options trades which i haven't seen you address:
would you mind walking thru the mechanics of your options trades? by that, i mean the actual trade execution process. your # of contracts are always even numbers. given the large # of contracts you trade, it makes me curious as to what type of orders you're entering. bid/ask are, of course, always changing both in price and spread; and my experience is many times getting partial fills on limit orders. given the potential for rape with market orders, i doubt you're entering market orders. hence, my mechanics question. are you placing 'generous' limits to ensure execution? also, are your orders always online, or do you sometimes pick up the phone?
as to exiting the trade: do you use the same method as the entry? given risk/money management, especially if things are moving rapidly against you, limit vs market orders each have their downside. personally, limit orders that don't get executed result in chasing it when i've exceeded max pain for the trade and discipline dictates exiting. again, given the # of contracts you trade, coupled with the fact that you time stamp your trades in your update (implying all your trades execute in 1 order), it makes me keenly interested in how you accomplish this.
finally, how often do you find an options trade that, when it comes to executing it, you can't do it without slippage due to size? along the same lines, given the large % of acct. size that your method takes per trade, at what acct. size do you think you will hit the wall with the options part of your strategy?
thanks.
__________________
pining for the pork of the porcupine
most your trades are intraday, but you only made 17 trades this whole week?...is that right?
oh and what stocks did you trade this week?
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Good job neke. Keep this up and youll have some new years party.
Quote from gangof4:
first, yours is the only journal i've followed on ET; as i believe it's authentic as well as unique.
couple questions about your options trades which i haven't seen you address:
would you mind walking thru the mechanics of your options trades? by that, i mean the actual trade execution process. your # of contracts are always even numbers. given the large # of contracts you trade, it makes me curious as to what type of orders you're entering. bid/ask are, of course, always changing both in price and spread; and my experience is many times getting partial fills on limit orders. given the potential for rape with market orders, i doubt you're entering market orders. hence, my mechanics question. are you placing 'generous' limits to ensure execution? also, are your orders always online, or do you sometimes pick up the phone?
as to exiting the trade: do you use the same method as the entry? given risk/money management, especially if things are moving rapidly against you, limit vs market orders each have their downside. personally, limit orders that don't get executed result in chasing it when i've exceeded max pain for the trade and discipline dictates exiting. again, given the # of contracts you trade, coupled with the fact that you time stamp your trades in your update (implying all your trades execute in 1 order), it makes me keenly interested in how you accomplish this.
finally, how often do you find an options trade that, when it comes to executing it, you can't do it without slippage due to size? along the same lines, given the large % of acct. size that your method takes per trade, at what acct. size do you think you will hit the wall with the options part of your strategy?
thanks.
Quote from neke:
You will have to divide the quantity column by 100 to get the number of contracts traded. So for SZCNH for this week, it is 600 contracts (representing 60000 shares). For a very liquid option like SPY options it is easy to place a limit order and get all the fills you want. For the particular trade above, I actually placed three different buy orders for 200 contracts apiece (averaging down demon at work again!), the executions taking place at 12:30, 12:39 and 13:26 as shown in the Ameritrade listing below. Got out of the entire trade (600 contracts ) at 3:39pm @ 2.21. My entries are always limit orders, and depending on the liquidity and spread I determine what price to place the limit and have a reasonable chance of being filled in short order. I might move that limit order a while until I get my complete fill. When I placed the first order at 2.48, the bid was 2.47 and ask 2.48. So I was basically hitting the offer, and because of good liquidity got all filled. When i decided to get out (600 contracts) the bid was 2.22 and ask 2.23, I place a limit order to sell at 2.20 (I just wanted to get out!) and got filled at 2.21. Market orders on exit? In the last one year that probably did not happen more than twice for options (and that out of despondency). I want to be in control of slippage suffered and therefore always use limit. Once of those I used market order was on ISRG option last year (think October, the week I gained 51%), it was expiration day and all my attempts to get out at limit were not successful - tiny fills while the price kept going against me; finally replaced the remaining with a market order and got out at a whopping loss, the option would have eventually ended the day worthless.
The timestamp on my top/bottom trades (entry/ exit) are the time of the first execution and the last execution, not necessarily for all the executions. My orders are all online. Size is dependent on what the performance of the strategy has been, along with the liquidity of the option, and time to expiration, but in any event not exceeding 50% of my account. In general I avoid options where the spread is such that the stock needs to move by more than 1% in my favour to break-even on the spread.
__________________
pining for the pork of the porcupine
Quote from cashmoney69:
most your trades are intraday, but you only made 17 trades this whole week?...is that right?
oh and what stocks did you trade this week?
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from cashmoney69:
most your trades are intraday, but you only made 17 trades this whole week?...is that right?
oh and what stocks did you trade this week?
Quote from gangof4:
thanks for the reply. yeah, my guess was, as i do, you use generous limit orders when you want to make sure you get out. as you pointed out, sometimes that doesn't work when it's really moving against you.
i understood the # of contracts you were trading (ie: the POT puts were 200 contracts, not 2000). my question was about running into size issues with even 200 contracts on individual stocks (not so much SPY options, as their liquidity gives you lots of room to grow). i've run into fill issues with less than 100 contracts, so i figured you must run into the same thing with several 100. what i've seen is, for example, i getting executed on 1/2 or 1/3 of an order and then having the spread widen in an 'ok this guy wants 60 contracts, if he wants the remaining 25 executed, he's going to have to chase it and take the newly engineered wide spread' rape. open interest in those POT puts was less than 1000, so i figured 200 contracts at once was probably pushing the envelope in terms of size you can get into and, more importantly, get out of.
Quote from neke:
In many of such trades I put the limit order (many times between the bid and ask) and let it hang there until my time-limit for entry is over (say 30 minutes). Very often the execution will take place.
Neke,
What kind of indicators do you use? Simple Trendlines? Any Occilators? How are you able to scan so many stocks, indexes at once and still find intra-day setups?
Quote from short&naked:
Neke,
What kind of indicators do you use? Simple Trendlines? Any Occilators? How are you able to scan so many stocks, indexes at once and still find intra-day setups?
Neke, I have ameritrade also, do you use Command Center or Strategy Desk for your intra day trading ?
Quote from neke:
No fancy indicators. I just keep my eyes open everyday.
Quote from neke:
No fancy indicators. I just keep my eyes open everyday.
indicators should be used as a reference to get a better idea of the market situation imo, too many people think of it as a entry signal.
Mr. Market,
Thanks for knocking me out of my positions with a big loss, and then rebounding immediately afterwards. I shall have my revenge!
Quote from neke:
Mr. Market,
Thanks for knocking me out of my positions with a big loss, and then rebounding immediately afterwards. I shall have my revenge!
Weekly Update for week 5/50 ended 02/14/2009
Woeful week, down 18K (5%).
What started like a good week ended terribly. Was up 20K on Monday after some good trades fading the rally early in the day. Surrendered all that on Tuesday when the market zapped against my positions: was on the wrong side of all the moves. Gained some little more on Wednesday. The came Thursday, and I was once more up about 20K for the week, only for me to initiate some ill-fated long positions in stocks and options on the spy, adding some more as the market down down. Then when I could handle it no more, crashed out (3:01pm) only to watch in disgust as the market rebounded soon afterwards: Had I held the positions to the close, my account balance should be greater by about 64K! That is the extent of the pain.
Not sure whether to look forward to next week.
code:
Opening Balance: 361,377 Net loss for the week -17,939 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 343,438 Number of Trades 27 Number of Profitable Trades 17 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 02/14/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 23,374 (Up 7.3%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 343,438 Number of Trades 114 Number of Profitable Trades 71 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE PYPNS 2009-02-09-10-14-58 2009-02-09-12-10-31 15000 78000 85500 7261 POT PUT GS 2009-02-09-09-32-11 2009-02-09-10-41-16 3000 286922 292800 5862 SHORT --------------------------------------------------------------------------- SZCBD 2009-02-12-13-02-04 2009-02-12-15-01-43 40000 87000 66000 -21621 SPY CALL
I sympathize that was one brutal short covering rally Thursday. Better luck next week.
Neke,
You can see from my # of posts that I don't post often as I am still studying the markets and trading. But in the last couple of days I read your entire 2008 journal with immense interest and I have to say I love it! It was like reading a great novel that you can not put down -- the story has its highs and lows, twists and turns, all kinds of characters and a great hero, a fabulous $138k climax and half a million finale. I could not have asked more for a trading journal!
Congratulations on what you have achieved so far and thank you for sharing with us such a wonderful and inspirational journal.
This week was not so great for you but considered the bloodshed on Thursday your weekly loss I believe is within reasonable. Good luck next week. I am rooting for you.
Quote from neke:
No fancy indicators. I just keep my eyes open everyday.
Quote from neke:
What started like a good week ended terribly. Was up 20K on Monday after some good trades fading the rally early in the day.
Had I held the positions to the close, my account balance should be greater by about 64K!
Anyone can trade from the middle of the chart. Hang in there, those 64k weeks are just a matter of time. As if im not jelious enough of you. 
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from neke:
After some thought, the fraction, f, to use on a trade shall be a function of 3 variables for stocks, and 4 variables for options:
f = g(cratio, histf(strategy), recentf(strategy)) --stock
f = g(cratio, histf(strategy), recentf(strategy), daystoexp) --options
The meaning of each variable is below:
...
daystoexp
For options the days to expiration determines what fraction that can be used. The closer to expiration of the option, the faster the percentage moves on the option premium, consequently the smaller shall be the value of f.
Neke, do you use minute charts or tick bars for your intra day trades?
Weekly Update for week 6/50 ended 02/21/2009
An OK week, up 20K (6%). Makes me look like a genius, considering how terribly I traded: rule violations and missed opportunities.
Did fairly OK on Tue, Wed. Then Wed evening bought 2000 shares of PCLN @ 76 after their nice earnings. The following morning, shortly after the open, my greed got the hold of me and added another 6000 shares at the much higher price. As if that was not enough bought 200 contracts of the FEB 80 CALL @ 2.20 average apiece and watched as the stock pulled back some afterwards. Closed the option at 1.25, losing 19K, offset somewhat by the 9K gain on the stock. It was not surprising to see that stock close at 83.75 on Friday even in a down market, after inflicting that pain on me. Now that I have defined the rule for position sizing with regards to days to expiration, I hope I will have the discipline to stick to it.
Made up for the loss on Fri catching the bounce on the SPY with some MAR calls.
code:
Opening Balance: 343,438 Net gain for the week 20,325 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 363,763 Number of Trades 17 Number of Profitable Trades 10 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 02/21/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 43,699 (Up 13.7%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 363,763 Number of Trades 131 Number of Profitable Trades 81 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SZCCZ 2009-02-20-14-43-46 2009-02-20-14-53-49 45000 153000 166500 12810 SPY MAR CALL PCLN 2009-02-18-16-11-42 2009-02-19-15-39-36 8000 632896 641654 8720 LONG -------------------------------------------------------------------- CMCSA 2009-02-18-08-37-35 2009-02-18-09-49-49 10000 132500 124000 -8515 LONG PUZBP 2009-02-19-09-37-35 2009-02-19-15-38-41 20000 44000 25000 -19321 PCLN FEB CALL
Rules violations !!! Who gives a shit ?
If justified ,fair enough...keep doing what makes you feel comfortable..the only one who knows about the "discomfort" will be you and you are in control.
I look forward to a profitable journal this year...good luck.
A least you made a profit over last week. How does day trading with TDameritrade not kill you in commission costs?..why not get a direct access broker?, and what was the strike on your SPY mar calls?
thanks.
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from neke:
rule violations and missed opportunities.
[/B]
Weekly Update for week 7/50 ended 02/28/2009
Flattish week, up 3.8K (1%). It was a fantastic week on another front with the birth of our baby boy. Spent most of the week on errands, though managed to flip a few trades in between errands.
code:
Opening Balance: 363,763 Net gain for the week 3,860 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 367,623 Number of Trades 10 Number of Profitable Trades 7 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 02/28/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 47,559 (Up 14.9%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 367,623 Number of Trades 141 Number of Profitable Trades 88
neke,
Congrats on the new baby!
Congrats on the baby.
Congrats on the baby! Ang gluck trading with the baby on your mind. Looking back this years results are even better taking this news into account.
__________________
If you can't beat them join them, he said as he was writing his application to Rotterinvest!
Congrats
neke,
Have you considered trading thru a Prop Firm? Great leverage (50:1)... gi ven your performances with little leverage, you probably would have been able to grow your account about 10 fold if you had the trades in 2008 leveraged at 50:1...
Walt
Quote from jones247:
neke,
Have you considered trading thru a Prop Firm? Great leverage (50:1)... gi ven your performances with little leverage, you probably would have been able to grow your account about 10 fold if you had the trades in 2008 leveraged at 50:1...
Walt
trading
just came across your post/forum...what are you trading? stocks, futures etc?
thanks for reply
Weekly Update for week 8/50 ended 03/07/2009
Ugly, ugly week, down 34K (9%).
Had my account reset (to starting balance) on Monday and Tuesday with steep losses on CMED, and then trying to anticipate a bounce in the market. Lost 31k in SPY stock and options as the market lacked institutional support to stage a bounce - It was a miserable market to watch, four weeks in a row of at least 4% weekly loss, and yet no meaningful bounce! I think it afforded me an opportunity to re-assess my game plan, and my expectation from each strategy. Looks like when I was ready to step up after some little buffer, I am sent back to the starting line. Let's just call this a false start.
Laboured the rest of the week picking up some little pieces here and there.
code:
Opening Balance: 367,623 Net loss for the week -33,636 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 333,987 Number of Trades 28 Number of Profitable Trades 16 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 03/07/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 13,923 (Up 4.3%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 333,987 Number of Trades 169 Number of Profitable Trades 104 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SZCOR 2009-03-05-10-14-11 2009-03-05-11-58-38 20000 55800 71000 14886 SPY PUT DECK 2009-03-02-10-50-46 2009-03-03-09-37-29 5000 189665 201254 11553 LONG --------------------------------------------------------------------- SPY 2009-03-02-10-41-15 2009-03-02-15-50-57 8000 572800 564000 -8824 LONG CMED 2009-03-02-09-30-33 2009-03-02-15-37-21 10000 139500 124000 -15522 LONG SZCCU 2009-03-02-10-41-48 2009-03-03-13-33-36 40000 94000 71008 -23620 SPY CALL
Hi Neke,
Since I'm an options trader myself, mostly in the SPY and ES, I read your journal from time to time to get some perspective on how you approach your trades. So I was wondering what made you decide to trade CMED this week. I cannot see anything special about it from a volatility stand point that is if you are a long gamma trader. Thanks.
Quote from iloveoptions:
Hi Neke,
So I was wondering what made you decide to trade CMED this week. I cannot see anything special about it from a volatility stand point that is if you are a long gamma trader. Thanks.
Quote from neke:
That was a (post-)earnings play on the stock
Don't worry Neke, everyone has their drawdowns. My month isnt
getting off on the right foot either, but we do what we can right?
Best of luck - CM69
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Neke,
Did you exit your DECK position in one fell swoop, or did you pare out 2500 shares at a time?
Thanks, just curious. I think I'd be scared with that many shares, I'm not up to that level yet. So I'm just wondering how you handled it.
Thanks,
+-*/ Math_Wiz
Quote from neke:
[B]Weekly Update for week 8/50 ended 03/07/2009
Ugly, ugly week, down 34K (9%).
Quote from Math_Wiz:
Neke,
Did you exit your DECK position in one fell swoop, or did you pare out 2500 shares at a time?
Thanks, just curious. I think I'd be scared with that many shares, I'm not up to that level yet. So I'm just wondering how you handled it.
Thanks,
+-*/ Math_Wiz
code:
03/03/2009 09:33:35 Sold 300 DECK @ 41 12,292.93 $418,660.04 03/03/2009 09:34:05 Sold 2400 DECK @ 40.8 97,912.45 $516,572.49 03/03/2009 09:37:29 Sold 1700 DECK @ 40.1065 68,173.61 $584,746.10 03/03/2009 09:37:29 Sold 100 DECK @ 40.03 4,002.97 $588,749.07
Thanks Neke,
+-*/ Math_Wiz
Weekly Update for week 9/50 ended 03/14/2009
An OK week, up 24K (7%).
Lots of activity (30 trades), and a high winning percentage (73%) helped offset the terrible losses on Thurs. Lost more than 33K shorting MS and SPY with excessive leverage. But for that the week should have been very good.
code:
Opening Balance: 333,987 Net gain for the week 23,629 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 357,616 Number of Trades 30 Number of Profitable Trades 22 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 03/14/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 37,552 (Up 11.7%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 357,616 Number of Trades 199 Number of Profitable Trades 126 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE GILD 2009-03-12-09-25-37 2009-03-12-09-54-41 10000 411198 424660 13439 LONG SZCOX 2009-03-13-10-07-27 2009-03-13-11-18-23 20000 36800 47430 10316 SPY PUT ---------------------------------------------------- SPY 2009-03-11-14-34-04 2009-03-11-15-14-57 18000 1313808 1301128 -12715 SHORT SPY 2009-03-12-11-34-16 2009-03-12-15-30-21 15000 1128000 1104077 -23958 SORT
Neke...that's interesting that you chose to short the market on Thursday. What was your reasoning for this?
Great thread, subscribing...
__________________
When you're not the lead dog, the view never changes...
I think we'll see 300k before 400k. I love Fibonacci!
P.S. YES! I am suggesting that one can ascertain one's emotional trading state by analysing one's equity curve.
03/22/2009
Weekly Update for week 10/50 ended 03/22/2009
Negative week, down 15K (4.2%).
The week began on a deeply negative note on Monday. Shorted C, lost 13K, turned around and went long - wrong time - lost another 10K. If only I could restraint myself from revenge trading!. Not a lot going for me the remainder of the week, as the gains barely outpaced the losses.
Disgusting to be up single digit (%) after 10 weeks of trading. That is a lot of time marking, and hardly worthy of the time and effort expended. I hope there could be a take-off soon.
code:
Opening Balance: 357,616 Net loss for the week -14,857 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 342,759 Number of Trades 24 Number of Profitable Trades 14 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 03/22/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 22,695 (Up 7.1%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 342,759 Number of Trades 223 Number of Profitable Trades 140 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE FDXCI 2009-03-19-09-31-09 2009-03-19-09-40-20 20000 17400 26100 8379 FDX CALL FSLR 2009-03-17-09-47-07 2009-03-17-09-55-53 2000 220600 228600 7985 LONG ----------------------------------------------------------- C 2009-03-16-13-51-27 2009-03-16-15-05-11 50000 128500 118500 -10015 LONG C 2009-03-16-10-15-20 2009-03-16-11-02-44 100000 220000 206578 -13444 SHORT
15k a week for 52 weeks is 780,000 a year, nothing to sneeze at. Not bad if you ask me.
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from cashmoney69:
15k a week for 52 weeks is 780,000 a year, nothing to sneeze at. Not bad if you ask me.
^ He lost 15K, not made.
And even with a 7% return so far, that's 22K and probably more than most people here is making dollarwise so far.
Think of it this way, 90% of the people here are not even making any money, so you should be happy that you are part of an elite group of traders simply making money from the market. Cheers.
Weekly Update for week 11/50 ended 03/29/2009
An OK week, up 9K (2.7%).
Lots of hits and misses. Largely overtraded. End result is just sufficient for a week's worth of effort.
Still refining my methods on position sizing viz-a-vis expectation for profit and risk. Happy to announce the addition of an automated/mechanical strategy to the mix. Hoping for better things this time around.
code:
Opening Balance: 342,759 Net gain for the week 9,181 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 351,940 Number of Trades 36 Number of Profitable Trades 23 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 03/29/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 31,676 (Up 9.9%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 351,740 Number of Trades 259 Number of Profitable Trades 163 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SZCDC 2009-03-23-14-51-56 2009-03-23-15-40-11 20000 63795 71400 7441 SPY CALL ----------------------------------------- SZCDE 2009-03-25-10-37-18 2009-03-25-12-47-16 20000 59000 51200 -8114 SPY CALL
neke,
first, congrats on the baby, good luck on the year, and thanks for taking the time to post and help other traders.
i noticed in one of your posts you said you used ameritrade. Do you like it for basic stock and options trading? Do you watch a lot of graphs and does it freeze ever during high volume? Do you use any of Ameritrade's screeners or filters, are they decent? Thanks again, and good luck.
Neke,
9k may not be a lot for you, but this week was not an easy week as the market was very choppy except Monday. Would you elaberate a bit more on your Monday trading -- would you consider it a day of "credible strength"so you would go long with size, if so Monday should be the kind of day you make a major killing; if not why not?
Thanks for posting each week.
OC
Quote from shbhanda:
neke,
first, congrats on the baby, good luck on the year, and thanks for taking the time to post and help other traders.
i noticed in one of your posts you said you used ameritrade. Do you like it for basic stock and options trading? Do you watch a lot of graphs and does it freeze ever during high volume? Do you use any of Ameritrade's screeners or filters, are they decent? Thanks again, and good luck.
Quote from OptionsCharm:
Neke,
9k may not be a lot for you, but this week was not an easy week as the market was very choppy except Monday. Would you elaberate a bit more on your Monday trading -- would you consider it a day of "credible strength"so you would go long with size, if so Monday should be the kind of day you make a major killing; if not why not?
Thanks for posting each week.
OC
Weekly Update for week 12/50 ended 04/04/2009
A moderately positive week, up 7K (1.9%). Still drifting sideways.
What's annoying is making so many trades (24) and having the end result accounted for by less than one trade. Built up nicely Monday to Wed, lost it shorting the market move on Thursday. Again picked up an early gain in RIMM in after hours, only to surrender most of it the following day.
Still awaiting the break-out.
code:
Opening Balance: 351,940 Net gain for the week 6,744 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 358,684 Number of Trades 24 Number of Profitable Trades 14 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 04/04/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 38,620 (Up 12%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 358,684 Number of Trades 259 Number of Profitable Trades 163 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE RIMM 2009-04-02-16-14-19 2009-04-02-16-17-31 10000 565194 578526 13315 LONG SZCPA 2009-03-30-09-45-42 2009-03-30-15-05-15 20000 59200 68000 8486 SPY PUT ------------------------------------------------------- SPY 2009-03-31-15-23-08 2009-03-31-15-57-51 12000 964000 957720 -6313 SPY CALL SCHN 2009-04-02-10-46-16 2009-04-02-15-26-44 4000 151990 144692 -7313 SHORT
What was your reasoning for not holding SCHN overnight?
+-*/ Math_Wiz
Neke, you don't happen to live in Pennsylvania?
Quote from neke:
What's annoying is making so many trades (24) and having the end result accounted for by less than one trade.
Quote from Math_Wiz:
What was your reasoning for not holding SCHN overnight?
+-*/ Math_Wiz
Weekly Update for week 13/50 ended 04/11/2009
Another moderately positive week, up 10.5K (2.9%). Pleased to end the week positive given how horribly I traded.
Thursday was full of scary trades.Bought 5000 WFC at 19.69 shortly after market open. The stock kept drifting down and I added another 5000 @ 19.59 shortly thereafter, and then more and more as it went down until I was almost out of buying power: total 50000 shares @ average of 19.00. Crashed out by 10:30 @ 18.50 for a 25K loss, and immediately took revenge: shorted 50000 @ 18.50 and covered at 18.10, netting 20K. Regretted as the stock kept going lower, and shorted more at 17.50 and 17.81: wrong move, covered at 18.00, losing 13K. At the same time initiated a series of quick long scalps on BAC which made me whole for the day: again regret not holding for the duration of the move. Too much leverage violating my new sizing rules, and revenge trading: to be avoided.
Have to remind myself to tread cautiously next week.
code:
Opening Balance: 358,684 Net gain for the week 10,528 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 369,212 Number of Trades 25 Number of Profitable Trades 18 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 04/11/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 49,148 (Up 15%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 369,212 Number of Trades 308 Number of Profitable Trades 195 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE WFC 2009-04-09-10-31-28 2009-04-09-10-48-00 50000 904386 925080 20655 SHORT BAC 2009-04-09-12-29-25 2009-04-09-12-56-23 40000 342400 358035 15611 LONG BAC 2009-04-09-15-32-59 2009-04-09-15-35-22 100000 962000 970060 8021 LONG BAC 2009-04-09-15-19-59 2009-04-09-15-31-25 100000 945855 953001 7108 LONG ------------------------------------------------------------------ WFC 2009-04-09-11-53-47 2009-04-09-12-34-51 40000 720867 707483 -13437 SHORT WFC 2009-04-09-14-30-43 2009-04-09-15-19-45 40000 760000 745440 -14601 SHORT WFC 2009-04-09-09-32-53 2009-04-09-10-30-22 50000 950137 925284 -24926 LONG
Another "rags to riches" dreamer, this forum is full of them.
AHAHAHA BarbaraM. I laugh at you. What the f is he dreaming about hater? Stop trying to project your inabilities and inferiority onto others in a veiled attempt to create a higher relative value of yourself. Bitch. Good job Neke. BTW, I'm sure you blew BarbaraM's PnL out this week too. Keep it up. If you don't have have haters you're not doing anything right. You should be proud Neke.
Wilt
Quote from BarbaraM:
Another "rags to riches" dreamer, this forum is full of them.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 13/50 ended 04/11/2009
Another moderately positive week, up 10.5K (2.9%). Pleased to end the week positive given how horribly I traded.
Thursday was full of scary trades.Bought 5000 WFC at 19.69 shortly after market open. The stock kept drifting down and I added another 5000 @ 19.59 shortly thereafter, and then more and more as it went down until I was almost out of buying power: total 50000 shares @ average of 19.00. Crashed out by 10:30 @ 18.50 for a 25K loss, and immediately took revenge: shorted 50000 @ 18.50 and covered at 18.10, netting 20K. Regretted as the stock kept going lower, and shorted more at 17.50 and 17.81: wrong move, covered at 18.00, losing 13K. At the same time initiated a series of quick long scalps on BAC which made me whole for the day: again regret not holding for the duration of the move. Too much leverage violating my new sizing rules, and revenge trading: to be avoided.
Have to remind myself to tread cautiously next week.
code:
Opening Balance: 358,684 Net gain for the week 10,528 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 369,212 Number of Trades 25 Number of Profitable Trades 18 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 04/11/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 49,148 (Up 15%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 369,212 Number of Trades 308 Number of Profitable Trades 195 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE WFC 2009-04-09-10-31-28 2009-04-09-10-48-00 50000 904386 925080 20655 SHORT BAC 2009-04-09-12-29-25 2009-04-09-12-56-23 40000 342400 358035 15611 LONG BAC 2009-04-09-15-32-59 2009-04-09-15-35-22 100000 962000 970060 8021 LONG BAC 2009-04-09-15-19-59 2009-04-09-15-31-25 100000 945855 953001 7108 LONG ------------------------------------------------------------------ WFC 2009-04-09-11-53-47 2009-04-09-12-34-51 40000 720867 707483 -13437 SHORT WFC 2009-04-09-14-30-43 2009-04-09-15-19-45 40000 760000 745440 -14601 SHORT WFC 2009-04-09-09-32-53 2009-04-09-10-30-22 50000 950137 925284 -24926 LONG
Quote from BarbaraM:
Another "rags to riches" dreamer, this forum is full of them.
keep it up man! inspirational to watch, one thing that would be interesting would be to hear/read more about why you entered and exited trades. ie: did you just go long WFC because of momentum or are you using intraday technials or trading the news? some more knowledge of your tools and thoughts would be great. even if you dont' want to share that, still great to watch this. keep it up and cheers on the new child!
Quote from bwolinsky:
Yeah, I'm up 15% this year, too, but it didn't take 300 trades staring at a screen all day to do.
Quote from bwolinsky:
Yeah, I'm up 15% this year, too, but it didn't take 300 trades staring at a screen all day to do.
Quote from bwolinsky:
Yeah, I'm up 15% this year, too, but it didn't take 300 trades staring at a screen all day to do.
04/18/2009
Weekly Update for week 14/50 ended 04/18/2009
Dreadful week, down 67K (18%). Lost my tenuous gains for the year and more!
I was served notice of this on Monday when I lost 31k shorting BAC and other financial stocks with leverage. Struggled the rest of the week to claw my way back, and basically achieved that by Friday morning before tragedy struck a second time. What the heck is SLG? I didn't know the stock, only that it has shot up too much. Decided to buy 200 APR 20 PUTS, and averaged down another 300 on expiration day! Well, I got my head handed to me as the stock kept rallying to the close when I was out at an average 23cents/contract. Total lost 52K! Total disregard for due diligence on a stock heavily shorted and down 80% from a 52-week high of 102, and basically not the type of liquid stock I should be trading option on.
Will spend next week trying to get back my sanity and see the range of changes to make. First off, I am going to automate closure of positions averaged down on. My positions monitor should not allow initiation of further positions on a current position after the initial position is taken. I haven't done a thorough financial analysis of the impact of averaging down on my results last year and this, but all the signals I get is that it has severely dented my performance.
Good night.
code:
Opening Balance: 369,212 Net loss for the week -67,092 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 302,120 Number of Trades 24 Number of Profitable Trades 14 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 04/18/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) -17,944 (Down 5.6%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 302,120 Number of Trades 332 Number of Profitable Trades 209 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE CME 2009-04-15-10-41-37 2009-04-15-12-00-38 4000 940550 956414 15812 LONG ------------------------------------------------ SLGPD 2009-04-17-10-08-08 2009-04-17-15-09-21 50000 63470 11650 -52619 SLG PUT
Quote from neke:
04/18/2009
Weekly Update for week 14/50 ended 04/18/2009
Dreadful week, down 67K (18%). Lost my tenuous gains for the year and more!
I was served notice of this on Monday when I lost 31k shorting BAC and other financial stocks with leverage. Struggled the rest of the week to claw my way back, and basically achieved that by Friday morning before tragedy struck a second time. What the heck is SLG? I didn't know the stock, only that it has shot up too much. Decided to buy 200 APR 20 PUTS, and averaged down another 300 on expiration day! Well, I got my head handed to me as the stock kept rallying to the close when I was out at an average 23cents/contract. Total lost 52K! Total disregard for due diligence on a stock heavily shorted and down 80% from a 52-week high of 102, and basically not the type of liquid stock I should be trading option on.
Will spend next week trying to get back my sanity and see the range of changes to make. First off, I am going to automate closure of positions averaged down on. My positions monitor should not allow initiation of further positions on a current position after the initial position is taken. I haven't done a thorough financial analysis of the impact of averaging down on my results last year and this, but all the signals I get is that it has severely dented my performance.
Good night.
code:
Opening Balance: 369,212 Net loss for the week -67,092 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 302,120 Number of Trades 24 Number of Profitable Trades 14 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 04/18/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) -17,944 (Down 5.6%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 302,120 Number of Trades 332 Number of Profitable Trades 209 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE CME 2009-04-15-10-41-37 2009-04-15-12-00-38 4000 940550 956414 15812 LONG ------------------------------------------------ SLGPD 2009-04-17-10-08-08 2009-04-17-15-09-21 50000 63470 11650 -52619 SLG PUT
Quote from NeoRio1:
With your grand style of trading you should be on your knees thanking the trading gods that you are only down 18%.
Quote from neke:
What the heck is SLG? I didn't know the stock, only that it has shot up too much.
__________________
'Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,' Says the LORD.
Quote from cstfx:
Feel free then to post your actual, real results.
Like neke does.
Quote from Trader KGB:
Didn't we already hear enough of this lecturing in 2008?
Quote from neke:
04/18/2009
Weekly Update for week 14/50 ended 04/18/2009
[/code][/font]
Quote from Trader KGB:
Didn't we already hear enough of this lecturing in 2008?
Neke,
That's not a fun week or feeling. I certainly have been there and worse. I'm not going to tell you you suck, this was inevitable etc. All I will say is that you still have more than 4/5 of your money. You're still in the driver' seat. It is much harder getting those bigger numbers to grow like the smaller ones did. You're method is not in question; your self control/risk management is. So, take 30-50K and do what you did before. It will relieve the pressure of having so much on the line and you'll probably surprise yourself with how much actual cash you're able to pull in, and how those earnings compare to what you would have made if you were using it all to reach your goal of 3.5 mil.
Wilt
Like those who wrote before. Taking 300 to 3000 is a totally different ball game. The more money is at stake the more one loses his ability to think straight. The emotional dynamics are skewed against you when big numbers come to play. Re think, re focus and after careful analysis, re load.
Good Luck!
BTW the word around the campfire is that you are able to pull off trading and working full time as well. How do you do it? I am in a similar situation and find the two incompatible. What is your remedy?
Quote from bwolinsky:
www.collective2.com/go/pairsqidqld
You asked, and it looks like 30.8% right now for this month.
Quote from saxon22:
BTW the word around the campfire is that you are able to pull off trading and working full time as well. How do you do it? I am in a similar situation and find the two incompatible. What is your remedy?
Thanks
I very much enjoy your thread and appreciate your honesty and willingness to share. You are one of the very few guys on this board brave and honest enough to post your results for last week. I know just how tough a week like that can be... and can easily spoil one's weekend.
For what it's worth... I have found the last 3-4 weeks especially perplexing. My system gave very poor signals that often reversed quickly. I usually like to hold positions for 30 minutes to a couple of hours throughout the day... somewhere between "day-trading" and "swing-trading". But these past few weeks my win-loss ratio has dropped from 68% to 45% and this has pushed p&l results into the red.
I'm working this weekend trying to pin down what needs to change. But #1... I will cut my size in half next week; all 5 days. I will look for hitting singles, will scale into positions... NEVER down only up. And focus on getting my mind into an objective, zero-emotion, market-neutral ZONE that Mark Douglas writes about.
We all experience these periods of drawdown. It is how we respond to these situations that separate the successful traders from the not so.
Cheers, Joe
__________________
Trend, Patience, Discipline
Quote from NeoRio1:
So I take it -18% weeks are normal for you?
Do you even realize how irresponsible that is?
Do you even realize how fast that would blow an account?
Small picture traders who live with the hopes of riches after 240 trading days are pathetic.
Don't feel so bad man. Look at it this way, you still have four 18%'ers before you blow out, and last week was your 1st. Try to keep a smile on your face next week
Quote from Trader KGB:
I'm just saying the same comments were made last year (ad nauseum) when the same risks were taken. I don't endorse his methods, but he's aiming for a 10-bagger and double-digit daily swings (as crazy as that is) are going to be par for the course. That being said, he's got a 447% gain on the books in '08, so let his numbers do the talking.
Quote from Specterx:
Impressive. Why, you're almost back to breakeven from a year ago, and the OP only managed a measly 450% return in 2008.
Quote from Specterx:
Impressive. Why, you're almost back to breakeven from a year ago, and the OP only managed a measly 450% return in 2008.
Quote from cstfx:
Collective2 is not real trading. It is hypothetical, no real money on the line trading. neke puts his money on the line and bleeds his losses here on the board. I asked you (bwolinsky) to post your real results in a real account like neke does and instead you post "hypothetical results".
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
Amen. I have the utmost respect for anyone who puts real money on the line like neke does. Only they know the pain you feel in the pit of your stomach when the numbers to the right of the (-) minus sign represent real money.
Anyone posting 'results' from Collective2 as proof of thier prading prowess is a joker.
check your math..
Quote from iloveoptions:
Don't feel so bad man. Look at it this way, you still have four 18%'ers before you blow out, and last week was your 1st. Try to keep a smile on your face next week
I personally believe that excluding high frequency trading, if you were a retail investor paying retail rates, the highest consistent return that you can hope to achieve without say a greater than 50% drawdown is 100% per year. Can someone prove me wrong?
this is important...if we know the highest potential return, we can decide what not to trade which is as important as what to trade.
Quote from neke:
[B]What the heck is SLG? I didn't know the stock, only that it has shot up too much. Decided to buy 200 APR 20 PUTS, and averaged down another 300 on expiration day! Well, I got my head handed to me as the stock kept rallying to the close when I was out at an average 23cents/contract. Total lost 52K!
Quote from neke:
So SLG, you're now down to 15.30 after I got out? Had I exercised the puts, my account should be higher by 223K! Thanks for teaching me.
Quote from neke:
So SLG, you're now down to 15.30 after I got out? Had I exercised the puts, my account should be higher by 223K! Thanks for teaching me.
__________________
monee
Quote from neke:
So SLG, you're now down to 15.30 after I got out? Had I exercised the puts, my account should be higher by 223K! Thanks for teaching me.
Weekly Update for week 15/50 ended 04/25/2009
Moderately positive week, up 6K (2%). Dug a deep hole for myself on Monday, and spent the rest of the week climbing back to positive.
It appears to be my last desperate act of averaging down before I put in the automatic closure on Tuesday: Bought 10000 LVS @ 5.28 Monday morning after the positive analyst note, averaged in further quantities as the share price and the market went down until I had 80000 shares to my credit. Capitulated at 4.62, losing 26K. Hurts to see the stock close Fri at 7.42!
My automated checks came in place Tuesday, and glad to say I haven't averaged down (one forced closure) since then. Had a nice stream of singles for the rest of the week on reduced leverage, netting 6K at the end.
My work is still cut out for me as I try to:
--come to break-even
--build up a buffer
--accelerate the return through incremental leverage based on buffer
code:
Opening Balance: 302,120 Net gain for the week 6,054 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 308,174 Number of Trades 35 Number of Profitable Trades 23 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 04/25/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) -11,890 (Down 3.7%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 308,174 Number of Trades 367 Number of Profitable Trades 232 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE JUXQQ 2009-04-24-09-41-56 2009-04-24-09-56-37 40000 48000 60000 11385 JNPR PUT ----------------------------------------------------- LVS 2009-04-20-09-22-17 2009-04-21-11-31-11 80000 395572 369625 -26035 LONG
Quote from neke:
Had a nice stream of singles for the rest of the week on reduced leverage, netting 6K at the end.
Quote from cstfx:
Collective2 is not real trading. It is hypothetical, no real money on the line trading.
http://www.collective2.com/content/...o_technical.htm
(key phrase: Hypothetical results can be vastly different than the real-life results you can achieve in your trading account, almost always for the worse.)
You are not risking anything by having an account there. Which may explain why he has 6 different "systems" but chose to only boast about the hypothetical returns he has amassed this month already. At the end of the month, he is able to go to the hypothetical mall and purchase some hypothetical extravagance for his hard work this month.
neke puts his money on the line and bleeds his losses here on the board. I asked you (bwolinsky) to post your real results in a real account like neke does and instead you post "hypothetical results".
Quote from bwolinsky:
You're full of shit. You can see covestor.com, and I guarantee I'm not going to be giving you my statements. Covestor is as close as you can come, if you don't believe c2. Collective2 is as close to real world trading as you're going to get. Think not? I'd bet lots of money you have no ability to trade. You thinking that just because they're hypoethical results makes them invalid only shows your naievete, because I know you have no ability to trade as well as I do. Think not, have a look at the equity curve on both www.collective2.com/go/pairsqidqld and the curve from my backtest. Then you decide if you would committ serious money to it, and if you're answer isn't yes, you're an idiot and have no idea what you're talking about.
Quote from cstfx:
Kinda sucks being called out, doesn't it. The sites your reference are for people who have no skin in the game, and as such make decisions that they would not normally make if it were their money on the line. You have 6 pretend accounts on C2, and only one is making anything impressive. But let's pretend they don't exit. After all, you did.
Read your site's own literature and warnings:
"Hypothetical results can be vastly different than the real-life results you can achieve in your trading account, almost always for the worse."
Not my words, theirs.
And if you were serious about generating a client base, you would have to supply audited, real money results, unless of course you are just trolling the ignorant masses for hits, which it appears anyone who uses these sites are looking for. Hell, even Timmay with his 3-penny stocks has great numbers, even better than yours, but do you think anyone is going to give him anymore money?
Also, I am not here to prove myself to anyone. I have no need to post my results. I have money to trade with, I don't need to troll for some widows and orphans to sucker.
You criticized someone who puts his money on the line and you were challenged to produce your real money results, like neke has done for over a yr, and instead you go with this pretend money-manager site with it's monopoly money.
Good luck with your business plan jackass. You'll need it.
Quote from firscall:
A small loss from a trade entered in accordance with a plan is better than a profit from an emotional gamble.
STICK TO YOUR PLAN!!!
__________________
PS. TradingSolutions is a piece of shit software application (no addons, no user forums, labourious, resource intensive, vastly overpriced, poor support, ill conceived notion that modelling an optimal signal is the only way to profit from the markets, no walk-forward testing, it doesn't retrain automatically, a hedge fund has purchased IP rights to the software which means YOU will only receive a version of the software missing LOADS of basic functionality) so don't waste your money instead buy neuroshell!
Another week of hard-hitting, gritty action Neke, job well done.
bwolinksy, please start your own thread where you talk about your phenomenal gains, an stop trolling neke's party.
__________________
...
bwolinsky is a smart guy,but hasn't figured out how to make any money from selling his systems.
Who says consumers are ignorant?
Oh leave him alone.
After all, he is "One of the best trading strategy developers in the world. "
Quote from rolextrader:
bwolinsky is a smart guy,but hasn't figured out how to make any money from selling his systems.
Who says consumers are ignorant?
Quote from bpcnabe:
Oh leave him alone.
After all, he is "One of the best trading strategy developers in the world. "
Quote from bwolinsky:
Of course, but having 4 top 10 most profitable limit order scripts, two top 10 most profitable market order and wl score scripts, as well as being a top 2% collective2 vendor, I guess, only time will tell, and I'm very confident that I will be proven right over years on this. Again, check out covestor.com for bwolinsky or www.collective2.com/go/pairsqidqld
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
#2) Stop polluting Neke's thread. Start your own for your fantasy trading.
I come here to read about Nekes results not some blowhards.
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
#1) Trade real money, or kindly STFU. The sites you mention are the financial equivalent of Dungeons and Dragons.
#2) Stop polluting Neke's thread. Start your own for your fantasy trading.
Feel free to post here. ............ http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...6&highlight=p/l
Breaking even...
Hey Neke,
Haven't posted for a while and it was a bit sad to see the averaging issue pop up once again. I just wanted to comment on one of your goals, being getting to break even. I know you must have given it some thought but it seems that this year the money, the levels and little goals are playing a bigger part in your trading than in previous times. What I am meaning to question is why should a level such as 0 +/- PNL play any role in your trading? For me trading is the act of searching for oppertunities, analysing them and taking advantage of them, how you approach these oppertunities should in my opinion never be affected by your PNL. I understand that the 3.2 mil is a goal but not one that you would change your trading to achieve it is solely one that highlights the level of risk you are willing to take and a level which if oppertunities appear (and the stars align ) you will be able to achieve.
Once again thanks for keeping us posted in both the good weeks and the bad, it says volumes about how far you have come as a trader.
Gluck
FGBS
__________________
If you can't beat them join them, he said as he was writing his application to Rotterinvest!
Re: Breaking even...
Quote from FGBS:
Hey Neke,
Haven't posted for a while and it was a bit sad to see the averaging issue pop up once again. I just wanted to comment on one of your goals, being getting to break even. I know you must have given it some thought but it seems that this year the money, the levels and little goals are playing a bigger part in your trading than in previous times. What I am meaning to question is why should a level such as 0 +/- PNL play any role in your trading? For me trading is the act of searching for oppertunities, analysing them and taking advantage of them, how you approach these oppertunities should in my opinion never be affected by your PNL. I understand that the 3.2 mil is a goal but not one that you would change your trading to achieve it is solely one that highlights the level of risk you are willing to take and a level which if oppertunities appear (and the stars align
Once again thanks for keeping us posted in both the good weeks and the bad, it says volumes about how far you have come as a trader.
Gluck
FGBS
Re: Re: Breaking even...
Quote from neke:
I know it does not sound very logical, but a 40% drawdown when the balance is 320K (128K loss) would be more devastating than a 40% loss if and when the account has grown to say 2mill on the year (800K loss).
Re: Re: Re: Breaking even...
Quote from NoDoji:
What would be the benefit of EVER allowing a 40% drawdown on your account?
The approach is sound, especialyl if you go into a growing buffer area.
Example:
You ahve 100.000. Return planned: 10.000 per month.
Anything above is play money. Make it. Loose it. Try to explode pofit. But the buffer slowly grows. Get conservative if you ever hit it ;)
Good approach, I like it ;) Did the same in the past and on a demo account short while ago (I prepare reentering the market, so some demo training is needed, to sharpen my old edge from years ago).
You can even move the surplus out to a separate account ;) And go risky there;)
I hope this is my first and last post to pollute this one of the most supported thread aiming to achieve outstanding performance.
Mr. Bwolinsky has been continuing to deny the fact that trading is all about psychology and a system without psychology get involved is inconclusive (worthless). The only way to get psychology involved is to trade with real hard-earned money. For some people who autotrade with real money, please don't get me wrong, your psychology is getting involved despite you say that you use 100% automate program. One thing I'm sure is that you will find way to interfere your system several times in the day depending on your stress level.
Quote from bwolinsky:
Starting capital is 100k and has these results:
Long + Short
Starting Capital $100,000.00
Ending Capital $1,588,422.27
Net Profit $1,488,422.27
Net Profit % 1488.42%
Annualized Gain % 170.24%
Exposure 37.96%
Cash Interest $45,243.05
Margin Loan Interest ($33,720.32)
Total Commission ($1,136.00)
DividendsPaid $0.00
...
Quote from eagle:
The only way to get psychology involved is to trade with real hard-earned money. For some people who autotrade with real money, please don't get me wrong, your psychology is getting involved despite you say that you use 100% automate program. One thing I'm sure is that you will find way to interfere your system several times in the day depending on your stress level.
Quote from eagle:
I hope this is my first and last post to pollute this one of the most supported thread aiming to achieve outstanding performance.
Mr. Bwolinsky has been continuing to deny the fact that trading is all about psychology and a system without psychology get involved is inconclusive (worthless). The only way to get psychology involved is to trade with real hard-earned money. For some people who autotrade with real money, please don't get me wrong, your psychology is getting involved despite you say that you use 100% automate program. One thing I'm sure is that you will find way to interfere your system several times in the day depending on your stress level.
__________________
Great Minds Think Differently
Is it too much to ask to leave Nekes's thread alone ?
Let's keep this thread for Neke and comments about his trading.
__________________
monee
Agreed.
05/02/2009
Weekly Update for week 16/50 ended 05/02/2009
Awful, awful week, down 43K (13.8%). Thought I bottomed two weeks ago. Now it gets uglier.
What began as a good week on Monday, with a +20K gain, got progressively worse as the days went by, reaching a climax on Thursday with two PUT options on FSLR after their earnings ( a veiled attempt at averaging down) ending disastrously. This is depressing. Need to get the market off me for some days, and hopefully have better clarity.
code:
Opening Balance: 308.174 Net gain for the week -42,517 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 265,657 Number of Trades 33 Number of Profitable Trades 17 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 05/02/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) -54,407 (Down 17%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 265,657 Number of Trades 400 Number of Profitable Trades 249 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE WHR 2009-04-27-11-29-38 2009-04-27-12-17-34 10000 476888 487628 10707 SHORT ------------------------------------------------------------ SZCEJ 2009-04-29-14-33-46 2009-04-29-15-32-31 20000 51600 42800 -9122 SPY CALL HJQQQ 2009-04-30-10-34-47 2009-04-30-11-53-26 10000 97000 84000 -13166 FSLR PUT HJQQN 2009-04-30-09-30-29 2009-04-30-11-45-15 15000 80000 57500 -22762 FSLR PUT
Quote from neke:
05/02/2009
Weekly Update for week 16/50 ended 05/02/2009
Awful, awful week, down 43K (13.8%). Thought I bottomed two weeks ago. Now it gets uglier.
What began as a good week on Monday, with a +20K gain, got progressively worse as the days went by, reaching a climax on Thursday with two PUT options on FSLR after their earnings ( a veiled attempt at averaging down) ending disastrously. This is depressing. Need to get the market off me for some days, and hopefully have better clarity.
code:
Opening Balance: 308.174 Net gain for the week -42,517 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 265,657 Number of Trades 33 Number of Profitable Trades 17 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 05/02/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) -54,407 (Down 17%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 265,657 Number of Trades 400 Number of Profitable Trades 249 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE WHR 2009-04-27-11-29-38 2009-04-27-12-17-34 10000 476888 487628 10707 SHORT ------------------------------------------------------------ SZCEJ 2009-04-29-14-33-46 2009-04-29-15-32-31 20000 51600 42800 -9122 SPY CALL HJQQQ 2009-04-30-10-34-47 2009-04-30-11-53-26 10000 97000 84000 -13166 FSLR PUT HJQQN 2009-04-30-09-30-29 2009-04-30-11-45-15 15000 80000 57500 -22762 FSLR PUT
Quote from eagle:
I hope this is my first and last post to pollute this one of the most supported thread aiming to achieve outstanding performance.
Mr. Bwolinsky has been continuing to deny the fact that trading is all about psychology and a system without psychology get involved is inconclusive (worthless). The only way to get psychology involved is to trade with real hard-earned money. For some people who autotrade with real money, please don't get me wrong, your psychology is getting involved despite you say that you use 100% automate program. One thing I'm sure is that you will find way to interfere your system several times in the day depending on your stress level.
Hello Neke,
This is first time i post my comment here..
I can't understand your choice of stocks (options) you trade...
Why don't you take something more certain than some shit banks or overvalued solar stocks?
If you employed your capital to play.. let's say Msft you would make killing with the size of your account... why do you need this risky stocks?
You are playing the market the way I did it 15 years ago.... like an amateur ... no disrespect here
Try this .... buy Msft calls and average down forever... when they start going up you can bank $10.000 with every tick up..
think about it...
Take dow or s&p best companies and play those....
Quote from TMcKenna:
Hello Neke,
This is first time i post my comment here..
I can't understand your choice of stocks (options) you trade...
Why don't you take something more certain than some shit banks or overvalued solar stocks?
If you employed your capital to play.. let's say Msft you would make killing with the size of your account... why do you need this risky stocks?
You are playing the market the way I did it 15 years ago.... like an amateur ... no disrespect here
Try this .... buy Msft calls and average down forever... when they start going up you can bank $10.000 with every tick up..
think about it...
Take dow or s&p best companies and play those....
Quote from TMcKenna:
You are playing the market the way I did it 15 years ago.... like an amateur
Try this .... buy Msft calls and average down forever... when they start going up you can bank $10.000 with every tick up..
think about it...
Quote from Nexen:
This is a contradiction as only an amateur would average down forever.
Sorry, try again.
Nexen
My account would blow up if MSFT went bankrupt... but you have to admit this was very unlikely scenario... right?
Quote from TMcKenna:
Not true... Averaging down is the most powerful approach if you pick the right stock. Think about it.... just a month ago MSFT was trading at $17 now its over $20...
When you decide to average down you have to pick strong company which has been beaten down to the ground.. and then you enter your first long trade, and then average down forever (according to your account size)
MSFT is just one example, I didn't want to suggest you should buy this specific stock .... but .. there were and still there are plenty of similar stocks...where you can make killing if your account size is appropriate.
Neke trades with 300k account, my account is just above 150K, but I made killing last 3 months... I kept buying the best companies and averaged down forever.... too bad they turned up too soon because I was ready for much more... my stop loss was at DOW 3000 and s@p 400, but we never got there....
Quote from Nexen:
There is nothing to think about.
What happens when you pick the wrong stock ?
Give me a break, pure amateur talk.
Nexen
Quote from TMcKenna:
Not true... Averaging down is the most powerful approach if you pick the right stock. Think about it.... just a month ago MSFT was trading at $17 now its over $20...
When you decide to average down you have to pick strong company which has been beaten down to the ground.. and then you enter your first long trade, and then average down forever (according to your account size)
MSFT is just one example, I didn't want to suggest you should buy this specific stock .... but .. there were and still there are plenty of similar stocks...where you can make killing if your account size is appropriate.
Neke trades with 300k account, my account is just above 150K, but I made killing last 3 months... I kept buying the best companies and averaged down forever.... too bad they turned up too soon because I was ready for much more... my stop loss was at DOW 3000 and s@p 400, but we never got there....
Quote from TMcKenna:
If you pick the wrong stock you are an amateur....
Here is something for you... some "wrong"
stocks:
INTC, MSFT, KFT, ORCL, GLW, EMC, TSM, GOOG, YHOO, JPM, MS, GS.....
Let me know when they go bankrupt and I will admit you were right and I was wrong..
OK?
Quote from Nexen:
Enron
Bear Stearns
C
Lehman
GM
I could go on, but what's the point, your risk management sucks.
Nexen
Quote from TMcKenna:
Well, If you picked those to average down... what can I say? Do something else ... stock market is not for you
Quote from Nexen:
Hindsight speak.
Nexen
Quote from TMcKenna:
No hindsight not at all.. the companies I listed you should start buying this Monday and make sure you average down, check this post later.. let's say 3 months from now... ok?
Quote from TMcKenna:
Not true... Averaging down is the most powerful approach if you pick the right stock. Think about it.... just a month ago MSFT was trading at $17 now its over $20...
When you decide to average down you have to pick strong company which has been beaten down to the ground.. and then you enter your first long trade, and then average down forever (according to your account size)
MSFT is just one example, I didn't want to suggest you should buy this specific stock .... but .. there were and still there are plenty of similar stocks...where you can make killing if your account size is appropriate.
Neke trades with 300k account, my account is just above 150K, but I made killing last 3 months... I kept buying the best companies and averaged down forever.... too bad they turned up too soon because I was ready for much more... my stop loss was at DOW 3000 and s@p 400, but we never got there....
Quote from TMcKenna:
Hello Neke,
This is first time i post my comment here..
I can't understand your choice of stocks (options) you trade...
Why don't you take something more certain than some shit banks or overvalued solar stocks?
Quote from neke:
05/02/2009
Weekly Update for week 16/50 ended 05/02/2009
Awful, awful week, down 43K (13.8%). Thought I bottomed two weeks ago. Now it gets uglier.
What began as a good week on Monday, with a +20K gain, got progressively worse as the days went by, reaching a climax on Thursday with two PUT options on FSLR after their earnings ( a veiled attempt at averaging down) ending disastrously. This is depressing. Need to get the market off me for some days, and hopefully have better clarity.
code:
Opening Balance: 308.174 Net gain for the week -42,517 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 265,657 Number of Trades 33 Number of Profitable Trades 17 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 05/02/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) -54,407 (Down 17%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 265,657 Number of Trades 400 Number of Profitable Trades 249 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE WHR 2009-04-27-11-29-38 2009-04-27-12-17-34 10000 476888 487628 10707 SHORT ------------------------------------------------------------ SZCEJ 2009-04-29-14-33-46 2009-04-29-15-32-31 20000 51600 42800 -9122 SPY CALL HJQQQ 2009-04-30-10-34-47 2009-04-30-11-53-26 10000 97000 84000 -13166 FSLR PUT HJQQN 2009-04-30-09-30-29 2009-04-30-11-45-15 15000 80000 57500 -22762 FSLR PUT
seems to me you began to make money last year after the crisis began.....and the volatility increased....before that it was so so.
the same for 2009 where you made money at the beguining of the year when the volatility was still huge.
So it seems to me that you have a strategy that work when the volatility is uge.
Now you need to find a solution for normal day.
Just a direction to maybe think.
Good luck.
Neke,
Don't push it. Good weeks will come but you have to manage your money proper these days.
Good luck.
25000 puts on FSLR?? For an intraday trade? That's not trading, that's donating. 
You need some time off. Maybe also consider the fact that you are getting too big for your time frame in certain names?
Maybe I missed it, but I don't recall Neke asking for advise.
It's funny how everytime he stumbles the trading geniuses come out of the woodwork with their proof of why they're smarter than him.
Hopefully Neke has the good sense to employ liberal use of the ignore feature.
Quote from Mike Morrison:
Maybe I missed it, but I don't recall Neke asking for advise.
It's funny how everytime he stumbles the trading geniuses come out of the woodwork with their proof of why they're smarter than him.
Hopefully Neke has the good sense to employ liberal use of the ignore feature.
As a full time trader for the past 6 years, I've followed this thread with interest.
Neke has a very discretionary trading approach. A combination of market timing and news plays. This style worked quite well for much of 2008 as the financial crisis resulted in alot of forced liquidations and resulting rebounds. Relatively easy to anticipate for the experienced trader.
But that has changed in 2009. Liquidity is gone and stocks can have quite overextended moves based on little reason. Trading stocks based on gut instinct and what you "think" a stock should is increasingly difficult in this market.
You can easily lose big on a moderate position in this market. Add in the emotional self destruction that all discretionary traders are vulnerable too, and its tougher than ever to make a living.
I believe the goal of 320k to 3.5mil is not only completely unrealistic, its also very detrimental as it causes you to take much larger risks per trade than your account can handle. You are only a few -40k weeks away from completely wiping out your account.
2009 is not a year to swing for the fences but rather merely survive and wait for better market conditions.
what western said.
only play when the market feels like giving out easy money.
a flat choppy market is the time to go on vacation.
be patient a trading opportunity is coming soon.
volatility will increase, moves will get bigger, the market will trend.
take some time off and plan your attack.
theoretical picture of when to trade next
Quote from Nexen:
Enron
Bear Stearns
C
Lehman
GM
I could go on, but what's the point, your risk management sucks.
Nexen
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Interestingly many traders have been having disastrous times lately (myself included, went spectator a week ago), it really does seem there is a lot of manipulation going on looking at the charts and the spikes. Makes me wonder if the "normal" times will return.
Quote from TMcKenna:
Hello Neke,
.........Try this .... buy Msft calls and average down forever... when they start going up you can bank $10.000 with every tick up......
05/09/2009
Weekly Update for week 17/50 ended 05/09/2009
Great week, up 62K (23.4%). What a relief to come back above break-even after the prior weeks' disasters. What a salvation! I had thought I would need another two months just trying to get back to break-even.
A good measure of wnning trades (73%), especially on Thursday and Fri, playing mostly these financial stocks that appear to be on steroids. Shorted PRU after the initial run on Thu, closed it 30 minutes later for a gain of 16K, Came back later in the day and went long for another 13K run. Should be shorting some financials like COF on Monday if they dare pop-up again.
code:
Opening Balance: 265,657 Net gain for the week 62,242 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 327,899 Number of Trades 26 Number of Profitable Trades 19 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 05/09/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 7,835 (Up 2.4%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 327,899 Number of Trades 426 Number of Profitable Trades 268 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE PRU 2009-05-07-09-42-17 2009-05-07-10-18-12 10000 405627 422294 16627 SHORT PRU 2009-05-07-11-21-27 2009-05-08-09-48-25 18900 790204 804151 13856 LONG BAC 2009-05-06-12-29-13 2009-05-06-15-16-15 40000 484800 498002 13168 LONG SWGEM 2009-05-08-11-51-23 2009-05-08-14-41-13 20000 44600 53800 8885 SPY CALL ------------------------------------------------------ SWGEM 2009-05-06-09-57-34 2009-05-06-10-52-30 20000 43400 36200 -7515 SPY CALL DIS 2009-05-06-11-27-41 2009-05-06-12-33-48 30000 776959 762478 -14550 SHORT
Quote from neke:
Great week, up 62K (23.4%). What a relief to come back above break-even after the prior weeks' disasters. What a salvation! I had thought I would need another two months just trying to get back to break-even.
__________________
...
hhaha very nice Neke, keep it up!! Just another post to congratulate you! And an inspiration to myself and I am sure many other! wooohoooo!
Quote from neke:
05/09/2009
Weekly Update for week 17/50 ended 05/09/2009
Great week, up 62K (23.4%). What a relief to come back above break-even after the prior weeks' disasters. What a salvation! I had thought I would need another two months just trying to get back to break-even.
A good measure of wnning trades (73%), especially on Thursday and Fri, playing mostly these financial stocks that appear to be on steroids. Shorted PRU after the initial run on Thu, closed it 30 minutes later for a gain of 16K, Came back later in the day and went long for another 13K run. Should be shorting some financials like COF on Monday if they dare pop-up again.
code:
Opening Balance: 265,657 Net gain for the week 62,242 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 327,899 Number of Trades 26 Number of Profitable Trades 19 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 05/09/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 7,835 (Up 2.4%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 327,899 Number of Trades 426 Number of Profitable Trades 268 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE PRU 2009-05-07-09-42-17 2009-05-07-10-18-12 10000 405627 422294 16627 SHORT PRU 2009-05-07-11-21-27 2009-05-08-09-48-25 18900 790204 804151 13856 LONG BAC 2009-05-06-12-29-13 2009-05-06-15-16-15 40000 484800 498002 13168 LONG SWGEM 2009-05-08-11-51-23 2009-05-08-14-41-13 20000 44600 53800 8885 SPY CALL ------------------------------------------------------ SWGEM 2009-05-06-09-57-34 2009-05-06-10-52-30 20000 43400 36200 -7515 SPY CALL DIS 2009-05-06-11-27-41 2009-05-06-12-33-48 30000 776959 762478 -14550 SHORT
Quote from bwolinsky:
PRU rose large amounts after your alleged "cover."
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
"alleged" hahahaha, I guess you'd only believe him if he did it on "Collective 2" (aka financial Dungeons and Dragons).
What a wanker you are.
START YOUR OWN FUCKING THREAD IF YOU WANT TO PIMP YOUR PRODUCT. STOP POLLUTING neke's THREAD WITH YOUR BULLSHIT.
If you have no respect for anyone except those on covestor, then what the fuck are you doing here?
bo, you are a fucking asshole and every time you post, you just prove you are nothing but some idiot fucking 24 y.o. kid.
Quote from cstfx:
START YOUR OWN FUCKING THREAD
Quote from bwolinsky:
Put yourself in my shoes.
You stated:
Great week, up 62K (23.4%). What a relief to come back above break-even after the prior weeks' disasters. What a salvation! I had thought I would need another two months just trying
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
With a statement like that it doesn’t sound to me like your following any sort of rules or trading plan?
Be careful of those huge drawdowns. Things don't always swing back to give you a breakeven point (example: GM and BSC )
I would consider using better money management techniques or you'll be leaving it up to chance.
Trade wisely and good luck to you...........
322170
Quote from bwolinsky:
Neke's interests are better served from being verified by a 3rd party. I heard of this guy that started with an M that seemed to make unverified claims for about 20 years. I take issue with anyone on this site thinking they can just post results like that proves anything.
I'm not a kid either. I have responsibilites over millions of dollars, and I find posting on ET is good exposure, as you said. Whether I'm an asshole or not shouldn't matter if what I'm stating is fact, and I don't lie out here in the public.
I certainly didn't say I don't respect anybody who is not on covestor. I regard c2 and a couple other sites just as highly, but maybe not on the same level.
Put yourself in my shoes. I can't make claims about performance unless there's another 3rd party verifying my results. I hold everybody else to the same standard and that's perfectly reasonable.
I've tried to talk to Neke, but profits just as much as the losses may not actually be the truth.
I think you're taking it the wrong way. It's obvious Neke's looking for some sort of acknowledgement, and the only way he's truly going to receive that is by being verified by a third party. Whether he wants to do that on c2, covestor, or any other site is up to him, but the point is while these reports do appear legitimate, the fact that they might not be does call into question what he's reporting, and this is one of the primary problems I see with the reports.
covestor doesn't seem to process futures trades. does anyone know if there is a service like covestor for futures trading?
also, which brokers work with covestor?
Quote from bwolinsky:
You're just as stupid for believing him out here. I guess everyone can go visit covestor where real brokerage accounts are verified. It's free.
Here's the link www.covestor.com and you can search for bwolinsky, straight out of my own brokerage accounts.
You're welcome to join, Neke, I have a lot more respect for traders on that site than anywhere else.
It even tracks your accounts for you with a nice widget.
******** language="javascript" src="http://www.covestor.com/ext/widget?w=l&mid=19677" >
Quote from bidask:
covestor doesn't seem to process futures trades. does anyone know if there is a service like covestor for futures trading?
also, which brokers work with covestor?
Quote from bwolinsky:
I think you're taking it the wrong way. It's obvious Neke's looking for some sort of acknowledgement, and the only way he's truly going to receive that is by being verified by a third party.
__________________
If you can't beat them join them, he said as he was writing his application to Rotterinvest!
Quote from FGBS:
BS Bo..
I am one of the guys that has followed Neke's thread for 2 years now with great anticipation and respect. Neke has gotten my acknowledgement and at times criticism for his posts and achievements. This without a third party verification. You might be a guy that lives life to find your reward in compliments from others and hoping that others will give you the pat on the back. But believe it or not there are guys out there that live to please themselves and the people around them they love. That can look in the mirror in the morning and like what they see, that don't need that compliment or pat on the back from some guy on an internet thread. A LOT of people have learned a hell of a lot from Neke's thread even if only by glimpsing at the financial rollercoaster that trading with a certain risk appetite can bring with it. Let me point out one very important point. It is peoples CHOICE to read this thread, they come here week in week out to read about NEKE's achievements. The last couple of weeks that choice has been polluted by some fool calling into question Neke's performance and urging him to prove himself. Why don't you just let it be buddy? In one post you could have written, "Hey Neke there are products out there that would let you verify your own performance and you would get way more respect from the non-believing trading community, have a look if you like." But instead you have hijacked this thread instead of starting your own. Neke does not go onto other thread's linking to this one, he does not brag about his results in other threads, he doesn't hijack other journals, no he only writes in this one and that is why he has earned a lot of people's true respect. So I ask you kindly, leave this thread alone, you have made your point but in my opinion Neke has nothing to prove. Or he is a risk-loving trader kind enough to share his ups and downs, or he is the best fiction trading writer alive as he adds such realism to his posts and lets us enjoy the emotional rollercoaster with him. Either one is fine with me.
Best of luck with all your futures endeavors.
Cheers,
FGBS
__________________
monee
I enjoy Neke's post and I believe him.
Quote from FGBS:
In one post you could have written, "Hey Neke there are products out there that would let you verify your own performance and you would get way more respect from the non-believing trading community, have a look if you like."Best of luck with all your futures endeavors.
Cheers,
FGBS
Quote from monee:
Agree:
Everyone should realize Neke has never even hinted at wanting anything from anyone, and if they don't think his journal is legit it certainly has legit drawdowns.
All these stupid comments continue and Neke could get disgusted and pull the journal.
I don't understand how moderators allow this Blowinsky wanker to pollute this thread.
If I may ask, wtf is your job as a moderator, cause this guy definitely seems out of place here.
One last thing, in case you haven't got it yet, he is promoting his bullshit for free.
__________________
Nexen
Daytrader not paper
Quote from bwolinsky:
This might be what bothers me more than anything else, and perhaps Neke could answer it.
Neke, I think you might be someone who trades better when they are down. Personally Im the same way. When my account has nice gains I take excessive risk, and make stupid trades. When my balance is down, I make better trades because I have no cushion and don't want to lose my savings.
Weekly Update for week 18/50 ended 05/15/2009
Another sad week, down 58K. Lost almost the entire gains for last week. Seems its going to be a long dark night to recovery.
Had 13 trades of 20 profitable, but none worthy of talking about. The size of the losers dwarfs that of the gainers. Had the first set-back buying CTRP after their earnings. That stock has a poor history of holding on to gains after earnings, but I ignored that to my detriment. The route was completed on Thursday on CME: Was bearish on the stock and options and averaged in until I could do no more. It wasn't a surprise I capitulated at the worst levels, losing a total 46K. Had I held till EOD, I would have been profitable, but this happens when one takes a risk well above his tolerance limits: found a clever way to undermine my system checks (that closes positions averaged in).
Now I need to do a wholistic assessment of why I cannot keep to well-laid rules. It's almost instinctive to average into losses, but I practically never average into gainers. Result is my losing trades get so monumental compared to my winners. Almost tempted to now size-up upfront so there will be no buying power to average in: at least this way the winners could also be huge, even if the losers are as well: only I am afraid what the draw-down might become.
code:
Opening Balance: 327,899 Net loss for the week -57,682 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 270,217 Number of Trades 20 Number of Profitable Trades 13 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 05/15/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -49,847 (Down 15.6%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 270,217 Number of Trades 446 Number of Profitable Trades 281 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE ANF 2009-05-15-09-30-52 2009-05-15-10-43-57 33950 894987 898010 2917 LONG ---------------------------------------------------------- CTRP 2009-05-12-09-54-33 2009-05-12-11-42-55 10000 398223 384985 -13276 LONG CME 2009-05-14-09-30-45 2009-05-14-12-34-19 4000 1173024 1153527 -19569 SHORT CMEQU 2009-05-14-09-34-46 2009-05-14-12-30-22 5000 43000 17000 -26090 CME PUT
Attachment
Quote from neke:
It's almost instinctive to average into losses, but I practically never average into gainers.
Quote from neke:
I cannot keep to well-laid rules.
[/code][/font]
LOOKS LIKE A 1-2-3 LOW, AND I AM BETTING THAT HIS ACCOUNT WILL GO UP, IF HE CAN BREAK THE #2
[QUOTE]Quote from neke:
"Now I need to do a wholistic assessment of why I cannot keep to well-laid rules. It's almost instinctive to average into losses"
Very simple Neke -- because it "sometimes" worked in the past. You only remember the times it worked but rarely the times it costs you big. Granted, this is a strategy some employ -- but be careful -- if you don't know what you're doing -- you will blow out the account.
Kev
__________________
The worth of our lives comes not in what we do, or whom we know, but
by who we are.
Neke:
As far as sticking to the rules:
I know its probably not what you want to hear since you're swinging for the fences but , less leverage makes the losses smaller and phycologically easier to stomach and still stick with the plan.
To be able to stick with the rules when you only need 5 or 6 of these kinds of losses to be at 0 or less losses than that to cripple your buying power you have to be super human.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 18/50 ended 05/15/2009
Another sad week, down 58K. Lost almost the entire gains for last week. Seems its going to be a long dark night to recovery.
Had 13 trades of 20 profitable, but none worthy of talking about. The size of the losers dwarfs that of the gainers. Had the first set-back buying CTRP after their earnings. That stock has a poor history of holding on to gains after earnings, but I ignored that to my detriment. The route was completed on Thursday on CME: Was bearish on the stock and options and averaged in until I could do no more. It wasn't a surprise I capitulated at the worst levels, losing a total 46K. Had I held till EOD, I would have been profitable, but this happens when one takes a risk well above his tolerance limits: found a clever way to undermine my system checks (that closes positions averaged in).
Now I need to do a wholistic assessment of why I cannot keep to well-laid rules. It's almost instinctive to average into losses, but I practically never average into gainers. Result is my losing trades get so monumental compared to my winners. Almost tempted to now size-up upfront so there will be no buying power to average in: at least this way the winners could also be huge, even if the losers are as well: only I am afraid what the draw-down might become.
code:
Opening Balance: 327,899 Net loss for the week -57,682 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 270,217 Number of Trades 20 Number of Profitable Trades 13 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 05/15/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -49,847 (Down 15.6%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 270,217 Number of Trades 446 Number of Profitable Trades 281 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE ANF 2009-05-15-09-30-52 2009-05-15-10-43-57 33950 894987 898010 2917 LONG ---------------------------------------------------------- CTRP 2009-05-12-09-54-33 2009-05-12-11-42-55 10000 398223 384985 -13276 LONG CME 2009-05-14-09-30-45 2009-05-14-12-34-19 4000 1173024 1153527 -19569 SHORT CMEQU 2009-05-14-09-34-46 2009-05-14-12-30-22 5000 43000 17000 -26090 CME PUT
__________________
monee
Quote from neke:
I capitulated at the worst levels, losing a total 46K. Had I held till EOD, I would have been profitable...
Quote from Compulsive:
LOOKS LIKE A 1-2-3 LOW, AND I AM BETTING THAT HIS ACCOUNT WILL GO UP, IF HE CAN BREAK THE #2
Quote from saliva:
Everything looks perfectly clear in hindsight. But don't fall for this trap.
Quote from NoDoji:
.......Now replay that trade: You put on the trade and it moves against you, drawing down your account 2%, boom you're stopped out and you either reverse your position or keep your eye on the price action for a better entry. You try again, stopped out again down another 2%. Price keeps moving against what you expect and the volume is picking up big time, meaning supply or demand is going to be exhausted soon. Sure enough there's a pivot and you jump on board and this time you caught the wave you wanted and your account is up 8% on the move. This pivot point is the washout point where, had you held the loser, you had to capitulate because of the drawdown.....
Way too many pros with advice here. Draw downs occasionally hit the best traders including Neke.
Quote from neke:
The route was completed on Thursday on CME: Was bearish on the stock and options and averaged in until I could do no more. It wasn't a surprise I capitulated at the worst levels, losing a total 46K. Had I held till EOD, I would have been profitable...
bwolinsky,
Neke's journal has been on ET for years and it is one of the most interesting threads. He is a real trader not just some troll with 1000s of posts.
So why does it bother you ? Why do you want a 3rd party to confirm his trades ? Is he offering you a service, is Neke asking to manage your money ? No ! Please stop the drama. His journal is great, you should watch and learn. If you don't like it leave. He is not asking anything from you, please do the same.
05-11-09 04:21 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from monee:
Agree:
Everyone should realize Neke has never even hinted at wanting anything from anyone, and if they don't think his journal is legit it certainly has legit drawdowns.
All these stupid comments continue and Neke could get disgusted and pull the journal.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from bwolinsky:
This might be what bothers me more than anything else, and perhaps Neke could answer it.
Oppertunity
Hey Neke,
Just a quick question and throwing an idea into the group which some people may see as weak and others may agree with.
Do you size your trades with the size of the oppertunity? It seems like last year when the sh*t hit the fan you were raking it in when everyone lost their mind and the market would flip and turn and it looked like if you were on the ball there were oppertunities everywhere. This year and especially recently you may have spotted MASSIVE oppertunities but I really don't believe the edge has been as big. So an idea may be to trade smaller as trading a 2% oppertunity with 10% expectations is very likely to burn.
Furthermore I really believe the downswing has filtered out a lot of the more negative EV traders and that the traders left today are making the market more effecient than then second half of 2008 when you performed so well. Until there is a severe upswing and Joe and Bob enter back in the market I think it is realistic to lower expectations a tad until larger oppertunities present themselves.
Just an idea but I am curious to hear what you think and if your analysis says something different in that the current oppertunities ARE as big as in previous more profitable times.
Last thing, I have been the trader trying to get to even for the week/month/year many times and know that I overtrade and try to force stuff, look back and see if you stand by all the trades you did even if there were only 20.
Gluck screwing the head back on a little tighter and keep the focus.
FGBS
__________________
If you can't beat them join them, he said as he was writing his application to Rotterinvest!
Don't worry about this loss. What's done is done. You're still in the game. You have a full time job, you're not going to go hungry. Sit on your hands until a surefire, no lose play comes up and trade that. You will make money, it will be no surprise to you that you did, and your confidence, collectedness, and cash will rise. The market will be there, don't rush to make it back. I have and others have blown out accounts that way. You have too much to lose. The easy play will come. Whether it's 3 days, 1 week, or 2 weeks, it will come as sure as snow. LISTEN TO ME NEKE, I'M SERIOUS and my advice is right.
Wilt
What did you do last year that was successfull? Look over your charts of trades that you took, and re-read your last journal.
if you dont keep a copy of the trades you take, i'd strongly recomend doing that.
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from Mike805:
...
Anyhow, Neke, you've made good progress and I remember a while back you toyed with automation. Has that gone anywhere or are you still experimenting with it? It would be an interesting exercise if you could validate your strategy via back-testing and go forward using what you've created as a template.
Regards,
Mike
Quote from western:
...
2009 is not a year to swing for the fences but rather merely survive and wait for better market conditions.
Quote from BPtrader:
You described me accurately. I have an exit rule that I have never followed, each trade, every day. Sometimes I wonder why I haven't murdered myself.
I thought you solved the problem years ago. Did you go backwards? I thought once you have it, you won't lose it.
Quote from FGBS:
Hey Neke,
Just a quick question and throwing an idea into the group which some people may see as weak and others may agree with.
Do you size your trades with the size of the oppertunity? It seems like last year when the sh*t hit the fan you were raking it in when everyone lost their mind and the market would flip and turn and it looked like if you were on the ball there were oppertunities everywhere. This year and especially recently you may have spotted MASSIVE oppertunities but I really don't believe the edge has been as big. So an idea may be to trade smaller as trading a 2% oppertunity with 10% expectations is very likely to burn.
Furthermore I really believe the downswing has filtered out a lot of the more negative EV traders and that the traders left today are making the market more effecient than then second half of 2008 when you performed so well. Until there is a severe upswing and Joe and Bob enter back in the market I think it is realistic to lower expectations a tad until larger oppertunities present themselves.
Just an idea but I am curious to hear what you think and if your analysis says something different in that the current oppertunities ARE as big as in previous more profitable times.
Last thing, I have been the trader trying to get to even for the week/month/year many times and know that I overtrade and try to force stuff, look back and see if you stand by all the trades you did even if there were only 20.
Gluck screwing the head back on a little tighter and keep the focus.
FGBS
Quote from illiquid:
Isn't it possible that it only went down because you got out? Or, that it wouldn't have gone up that much to begin with had you not gotten in? And that perhaps somebody knows how much pain viz time/price you can take?
Be afraid, be very afraid.
Quote from Wilt:
Don't worry about this loss. What's done is done. You're still in the game. You have a full time job, you're not going to go hungry. Sit on your hands until a surefire, no lose play comes up and trade that. You will make money, it will be no surprise to you that you did, and your confidence, collectedness, and cash will rise. The market will be there, don't rush to make it back. I have and others have blown out accounts that way. You have too much to lose. The easy play will come. Whether it's 3 days, 1 week, or 2 weeks, it will come as sure as snow. LISTEN TO ME NEKE, I'M SERIOUS and my advice is right.
Wilt
Quote from neke:
You certainly see why quitting a full-time job is not a decision I could just make willy-nilly, with a family and two young kids to look after. It's amazing how the money does not look like money when I am breaking the rules, but at the end of the week, seeing a draw-down of nearly 100K from the high, I suddenly realise this is something I cannot save from my regular employment in two years. It is then some reality begin to sink in. Climbing back to 370K from 270 is certainly much easier than coming back (370K) from , say, 50K. So at this levels, CAUTION shall be my watch-word.
I have been following your thread for two years and usually I get inspired and think " He does it, so it can be done. "
I have the same capital you have, but the truth is that I could never ever do what you do. A 2% every month is enough, that's why I sell options.
You have the guts to go up and down $ 100k in a few weeks but most people do not.
A LOT of stuff could be done with 100k. It would take most people more than a year to spend that kind of money and still live large. Very large.
Quote from neke:
You certainly see why quitting a full-time job is not a decision I could just make willy-nilly, with a family and two young kids to look after. It's amazing how the money does not look like money when I am breaking the rules, but at the end of the week, seeing a draw-down of nearly 100K from the high, I suddenly realise this is something I cannot save from my regular employment in two years. It is then some reality begin to sink in. Climbing back to 370K from 270 is certainly much easier than coming back (370K) from , say, 50K. So at this levels, CAUTION shall be my watch-word.
I did automate a number of strategies, but had to stop because I was not too pleased with the performance. Now, for the most part, I try to add some discretionary element to the "automated" strategies: Get the system alert me when a qualifying set-up arises, and the I can use my discretion to go ahead with the trade or not. My aim eventually is to have all my trades dictated by the system, while I use my discretion (based on my experience of the markets over the years -- which I believe I cannot get the computer to fill in) to take the trade or skip. Of course that means I am still leaving room for psychological flaws; but it is really like being caught between the devil and the deep sea.
Quote from Mike805:
...Also, it might be pyschologically wise for you to focus on getting all the emotions out of it at this point via going the full-automation route, i.e. no breaking rules, no discretion.
Mike
Weekly Update for week 19/50 ended 05/23/2009
No let up for a battered soul. Down 29K (10.7%). Almost running out of ideas.
I don't know how I forgot it was CME that killed me last week, fading its over-extended up move in stock and options. Did the same again on friday on the stock, shorting 500 shares at 287.50, and then averaged down until insanity, as the stock kept climbing. What's the need sizing down on the initial position, when I would eventually go all in if the position moves against me?
Will spend more time automating some strategies that have promise, and gradually wean myself from being responsible for placing trades. With this, a decision is being made now: If the account balance goes below 225K (down 30% from starting balance of 320K), I shall cease ALL discretionary trades for the remainder of the year, and rely only on automated trades and position sizes. Maybe that will spur me on more to strategy development instead of trade execution: it's obvious I continue to lag behind in the later.
code:
Opening Balance: 270,217 Net loss for the week -29,535 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 240,682 Number of Trades 18 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 05/23/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -79,382 (Down 24.8%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 240,682 Number of Trades 464 Number of Profitable Trades 292 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE STLD 2009-05-19-11-53-00 2009-05-19-15-58-29 30000 412684 415464 2735 SHORT ------------------------------------ SPY 2009-05-20-12-02-41 2009-05-20-15-49-02 9000 822532 815400 -7174 LONG AMD 2009-05-19-18-28-50 2009-05-20-11-31-21 60020 283892 273845 -10124 SHORT CME 2009-05-22-10-10-50 2009-05-22-15-16-11 4000 1186989 1171125 -15978 SHORT
Quote from neke:
Did the same again on friday on the stock, shorting 500 shares at 287.50, and then averaged down until insanity, as the stock kept climbing. What's the need sizing down on the initial position, when I would eventually go all in if the position moves against me?
Give $10k to your wife and tell her she can shop with $1k for everytime you avg down
The past 9 weeks as a whole is abnormal for traders who have not seen that happening.
Neke is doing ok. Once he get a handle of what the current situation means in weekly level, he should be able to get back his $ in no time.
p.s. I don't post much in your thread but you have my support!
only advice i am qualified to give
As a trader who loses a lot, it is important to remember to not let the amount you are down change your strategy (unless it is to make you more conservative).
It seems when I am down, I lose all patience, do not wait for perfect entry points (like perhaps your CME trade today), but when I am up i don't feel any compulsion to trade and end up getting in trades with perfect setups.
I'm sure you are fine as for your overall financial situation, so, don't worry, be patient, only get in perfect trades, and don't worry about missing big moves. Good luck.
I'm sorry you're down this week. I'm sure you're not a wannabe who just trades for pennies. The only recommendation I can make for you is to cut loses quick. It seems like you're just throwing money at the trades and thinking it will come back to you. I'm sure you know the market can stay irrational longer than you can keep your account above zero. Keep your head up. If you're a praying man, I'd say you start it all with prayer....Keep you eyes open and look for the setups that works for you.
Quote from neke:
No let up for a battered soul. Down 29K (10.7%). Almost running out of ideas.
__________________
...
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
You're a Champion, Neke.
You've made us shut up before, I know you'll do it again.
***
Fuggedaboutit, have a great weekend, and get ready to step into the trenches come Tuesday.
Quote from monti1a:
Neke, you should remove as much discretion from your system/method as possible because this is the only way for you to determine whether you have an edge or not.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 19/50 ended 05/23/2009
No let up for a battered soul. Down 29K (10.7%). Almost running out of ideas.
I don't know how I forgot it was CME that killed me last week, fading its over-extended up move in stock and options. Did the same again on friday on the stock, shorting 500 shares at 287.50, and then averaged down until insanity, as the stock kept climbing. What's the need sizing down on the initial position, when I would eventually go all in if the position moves against me?
Will spend more time automating some strategies that have promise, and gradually wean myself from being responsible for placing trades. With this, a decision is being made now: If the account balance goes below 225K (down 30% from starting balance of 320K), I shall cease ALL discretionary trades for the remainder of the year, and rely only on automated trades and position sizes. Maybe that will spur me on more to strategy development instead of trade execution: it's obvious I continue to lag behind in the later.
code:
Opening Balance: 270,217 Net loss for the week -29,535 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 240,682 Number of Trades 18 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 05/23/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -79,382 (Down 24.8%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 240,682 Number of Trades 464 Number of Profitable Trades 292 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE STLD 2009-05-19-11-53-00 2009-05-19-15-58-29 30000 412684 415464 2735 SHORT ------------------------------------ SPY 2009-05-20-12-02-41 2009-05-20-15-49-02 9000 822532 815400 -7174 LONG AMD 2009-05-19-18-28-50 2009-05-20-11-31-21 60020 283892 273845 -10124 SHORT CME 2009-05-22-10-10-50 2009-05-22-15-16-11 4000 1186989 1171125 -15978 SHORT
I take back everything I said about you knowing how to trade SPY. I just went and added up your net profit for SPY and SPY calls and puts and you've lost
drum roll.....
$96,122
Maybe you should refrain from buying SPY calls or puts. You'd be almost 100k higher without those trades.
Quote from monti1a:
Neke, you should remove as much discretion from your system/method as possible because this is the only way for you to determine whether you have an edge or not.
Quote from saliva:
Personally, I believe the best policy of demonstrating one's trading prowess is to post those damn trades in real time. Just my otherwise worthless 2-cents.
unless you have a team of top level programmers like goldman sachs that have the knowledge and bank account to make such an automated system, just stick to manual trading like everyone else. It's more fun that way anyway.
I'm sure you can automate some tasks, but leaving it all too a computer is imo very risky.
just reduce your size, and did you look at your trades from last year like I suggested?...if not, do it, it will help.
- nate
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Sorry to hear the loss again.
I did not trade much last week, so my account is pretty much unchanged.
My suggestions:
1. Do not force trades. Many people forget cash is also a position, and very important position.
2. I would say recall what you did last year. I don't think it was just random luck. You made so many trades last year, it can't be just luck. See what setup was successful and what wasn't.
3. I doubt automation will help you much.
Quote from cashmoney69:
It's more fun that way anyway.
Quote from bwolinsky:
And also why the street loves discretionary traders.
Quote from bwolinsky:
If I saw that curve on C2, I'd be thinking, "he doesn't know how to trade." However, if you really did turn a paltry amount into 300k, while this doesn't predict future success, I'd go back and study what I was thinking about during that period. I hope you've been jotting down notes during this time you've been posting. If not, you can probably go back and read your own threads. I'd be looking at my journal to see what I was thinking about, assuming you've kept one as most people recommend you do. You'd probably find you made money for the wrong reasons, not the right ones. Something tells me your overall view of the market and your bias is impeding your capital growth. Try and go read some articles on bloomberg if you want an idea what big money is doing, because its definitely not focused on the stocks your trading in, and certainly not in those directions.
Your whole week should be centered around the Bloomberg Economic Calendar. That's enough to decide which direction to trade in. Breakout trades are bread and butter on some of these headline news events.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html
It's so fucking easy to read the market focus and interpret the market moving events for the day from that. You get the reaction very quickly, and, assuming you know what a breakout trade is, you'll find it's very profitable, too.
For those who don't, there's several events that cause the market to move substantially in one direction or the other. Literally seconds before the news release you place OCO order a few ticks above and below the current price. It has good MFE in most cases, and sufficiently covers your price if you're fast enough to take the profit, as the market generally overshoots by large amounts, maybe 10 to 15 ticks above or below your long or short as a stop order for futures only. In your case, Neke, you'd want to do something like 6 to 10 cents above and below at stop on SPY, which is where I see your trading is quite good in.
Stop averaging down. That shit is lame. It won't ever turn a pig into Beyonce. If you don't know what your exposure and expectation is going in, then you're no different than mom and pop who haven't the desire or brains to understand what they're doing and are just riding the wave. Good trades don't test you, they're all smiles. Stop hoping. Stop trading to trade. Wait until the easy play comes like I told you. You will be alright.
Wilt
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
Neke, don't be in a such a hurry to "blow-out your account", or in your case, hit your yearly account stop-loss. You still have a pretty good sized account right now. You think you feel bad right now...think about how you would feel if you hit your yearly stop-loss. You should consider taking time off from your trading to stop and smell the roses and re-group.
Now is not the time to get aggressive. Instead, since your trading is obviously "off the tracks", I would suggest you drop down to a much smaller position size, and focus on developing your EDGE, CONSISTENCY, and DISCIPLINE.
Consistency, Discipline, and an Edge are to a trader what oil is to a car. And you sir, with all due respect, have neither consistency nor discipline. And, it's debatable whether you have an edge.
Think about it for a second, what is the point of trading if you can not achieve consistent results in your trading? You would be better of going to Vegas. I know I would not want to play this "game" if I had no EDGE. I can think of a million other things to do with my money other than trading without an EDGE, CONSISTENCY, and DISCIPLINE.
Consistency and Discipline are the easiest to overcome if you have a true and good Edge. Developing a good edge requires keen knowledge of how markets really work. A good edge is OBJECTIVE, SIMPLE, ROBUST enough to work on ALL MARKETS, and has, "thus far", withstood the "test of time" (I don't really believe that edges last forever but that is another story. I'm happy with "now"). Unfortunately, it took me years to find an edge that consistently works on all markets, and all time frames, but it can be done.
The things that is worrying about nekes averaging down is that if he does this on his losing trades then he maybe doing it on a lot of his winning trades too. And they wouldnt be winners if didnt average down on them.
I hope this isnt the case for neke but it normally is for traders who habitually average down.
...and the great Neke was no more. RIP.
Averaging down isnt the main problem here. If MM is in place he can risk the same buying the stock 3 different times as he could buying it all at once. I almost never average down btw.
I think the problem is his size, and getting emotional after losses. If he's getting more and more depressed after each week then cut size.
from now on, dont risk any more than 7200.00 which is roughly 3% of your account, and then divide that in 3 or more for when you average down.
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Oh god, here comes all the wonderful advice from those who never made a dime trading (except red_ink). Also can't leave out the misery loves company crowd.
How predictable.
Hey Neke,
Contrary to what you and most people on here believe I think you should continue your discretionary trading. At the beginning of last year you were thinking about fully automating your trading, but that went by the wayside as your discretionary trades started doing better.
At another point in time you were considering cutting out options from your trading because they had been consistently losing you money. Shortly after that they were the only type of trade making you money.
I think you have a lot of different strategies and trading methods: your ability to switch toward the successful strategy of the moment has resulted in a lot of gains for you. Automated trading though, has never been a big part of your strategy. I do think you have used your efforts to automate to help inform your discretionary trading but it has not been one of your main investment vehicles. I believe the reason for this is how aggressive your investment strategy has been. In my opinion that aggressiveness is the reason you have been so successful and why you see a lot of jealous posts on here.
I think the question of whether to continue is the same as it has always been. Do you have an edge? If you believe so then continue discretionary trading. You can expect an outlier event over a long period of time and at your risk level I'm not even sure if this qualifies. Possibly the reason you are considering significantly reducing your risk level is outside factors are affecting your investment decisions. In the beginning you started out with nothing to lose. Nothing has really changed, you've already made money even if you lose your current account. Of course there is a lot more money at stake now. The question is, are you willing to risk it all as you were in previous years? If not then you have to completely reevaluate your investment goals. If it is then you have to convince yourself it is play money and focus on strategy not results.
If by discretionary trading you mean shorting "overextended" stocks like FSLR and CME, then yes by all means extract this way of thinking from your brain. Sometimes there is a very subtle difference between what to do vs what not to do, here you are just completely off track.
A trader must "learn to love his/her lossess" for what they have to teach them.
You took your account from 320K < a quarter of a millon dollars in a period of less than 5 months.
It's up to you to learn the lesson(s) hidden in your losses, stem the tide, and reverse the trend (shown by Compulsive's hilarious - though accurate, chart) and continue working towards your goals (with what is, by any measurement, an extremely well-funded trading account).
We're all rooting for your to win Neke, even the naysayers. They are just taking the opposite side of the bet in case their feelings are wrong (if nobody cared, they wouldn't post).
__________________
...
Quote from ang_99:
Oh god, here comes all the wonderful advice from those who never made a dime trading...
Quote from trendy:
Yeah, exactly.
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthrea...540#post2434540
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from Wilt:
Stop averaging down. That shit is lame. It won't ever turn a pig into Beyonce. If you don't know what your exposure and expectation is going in, then you're no different than mom and pop who haven't the desire or brains to understand what they're doing and are just riding the wave. Good trades don't test you, they're all smiles. Stop hoping. Stop trading to trade. Wait until the easy play comes like I told you. You will be alright.
Wilt
Quote from short&naked:
...and the great Neke was no more. RIP.
Quote from cashmoney69:
who exactly are you and ang directing your comments too?
__________________
...
Quote from NeoRio1:
Successful trading is boring trading.
With your grand style of trading you should be on your knees thanking the trading gods that you are only down 18%.
I am not saying your strategy is impossible when it comes to making money. I am saying however that almost all successful traders have tried it and almost all of them have moved on to more conservative and less emotional methods.
Risk the life of your account daily or start being responsible? I always thought that was a pretty easy choice.
Weekly Update for week 20/50 ended 05/30/2009
A nice week, up 21K (8.8%). A much welcome relief from the recent battering.
Finally got it right on CME on Wednesday, shorting at about 308 and covering at 299 before end of day. The prior day, Tues, wasted an opportunity to make money on FSLR put, as I got out just before it accelerated its decline.
The emphasis has been extreme selectivity in what I trade - made only 10 trades, including the semi-automated ones. I hope to continue this cautionary phase as I seek to rebuild.
code:
Opening Balance: 240,682 Net gain for the week 20,517 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 261,199 Number of Trades 10 Number of Profitable Trades 6 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 05/30/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -58,856 (Down 18.4%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 261,199 Number of Trades 474 Number of Profitable Trades 298 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE CME 2009-05-27-10-43-20 2009-05-27-15-33-03 1583 475067 488080 12965 SHORT EXEL 2009-05-28-09-14-47 2009-05-28-12-05-09 60000 332566 341457 8806 SHORT ------------------------------------------------------ HJQRP 2009-05-26-09-57-34 2009-05-26-11-55-21 5000 62500 58000 -4591 FSLR PUT
Awesome, Neke! You really have everything it takes to keep that kind of return going. Your mental toughness is always an inspiration.
Quote from ifue:
Hey Neke,
Contrary to what you and most people on here believe I think you should continue your discretionary trading. At the beginning of last year you were thinking about fully automating your trading, but that went by the wayside as your discretionary trades started doing better. At another point in time you were considering cutting out options from your trading because they had been consistently losing you money. Shortly after that they were the only type of trade making you money.
I think you have a lot of different strategies and trading methods: your ability to switch toward the successful strategy of the moment has resulted in a lot of gains for you. Automated trading though, has never been a big part of your strategy. I do think you have used your efforts to automate to help inform your discretionary trading but it has not been one of your main investment vehicles. I believe the reason for this is how aggressive your investment strategy has been. In my opinion that aggressiveness is the reason you have been so successful and why you see a lot of jealous posts on here.
I think the question of whether to continue is the same as it has always been. Do you have an edge? If you believe so then continue discretionary trading. You can expect an outlier event over a long period of time and at your risk level I'm not even sure if this qualifies. Possibly the reason you are considering significantly reducing your risk level is outside factors are affecting your investment decisions. In the beginning you started out with nothing to lose. Nothing has really changed, you've already made money even if you lose your current account. Of course there is a lot more money at stake now. The question is, are you willing to risk it all as you were in previous years? If not then you have to completely reevaluate your investment goals. If it is then you have to convince yourself it is play money and focus on strategy not results.
great week and I hate to criticize but you are still shorting CME, do you know something we don't? This thing has been on a tear since the cds exchange thing was announced a few weeks ago. Anyway, good trading, way to come back.
Just curious, how much of your lifetime gains came from options?With that huge bid ask vig against you its hard to make money daytrading them
congratulations!
Freewilly!
Quote from Daal:
Just curious, how much of your lifetime gains came from options?With that huge bid ask vig against you its hard to make money daytrading them
Reviewing some of your trade history at random, it seems your method does well in Volatile markets. Especially downtrending volatility. You also average down on your trades - with size. ie the more a trade goes against you, the more you add to the position.
My theory, and I'm pissing in the wind here, is you average down and give the trade a certain time to move your way before taking the loss. In downtrends since the moves are faster, your time limit stop is not hit.
I posted earlier that the holy grail is automation. More importantly the automation of the money management part.
I normally don't give 2 cents about these "Journals". However I assume your posting trade history is to get some feedback.
Quote from neke:
Nice observation. It is frustrating when you make / repeat so many dumb action that negatively impacts your account balance. At such times, it naturally comes to my mind to go fully/solely automated. So far, the automated strategies, when put in practice, have only had mediocre results. There are so many aspects of my trading decision that I just cannot automate: price/volume data is just one variable that goes into determining a discretionary trade. There is no way I could have automated the shorting of EXEL on Thursday: it is driven on interpretation of news, and is not what a computer could do for me. What I have started doing is get alerted on possible automateable set-ups during market hours and making a decision to place the trades or not. I believe with so many of such trades to occupy my attention, I would not be unduly fixated on one discretionary trade that I want to be profitable to make my day/week. I really want my discretionary trades to come to me, and not me looking for them: there is always that subconscious desire that the next trade should be a home run, or at least should not be a loss. The result is trying to average down when it goes against me, and even if it eventually goes my way, I am only too pleased to get out at break-even. So the size of the losers outstrip the size of the gainers. I want to have so many automated prompts that I take with smaller size, and take the discretionary when the right set-up appears, instead of trying to force a discretionary trade.
Great thread...
Keep battling Neke, this keeps me going when I'm on a bad week of trading.
I can't imagine being down 100k, makes most here look like peanuts..
Just read through some of this for the first time. I was put off by the title and figured it was just another piker fabricating trades.
A lot of people seem to have some faith in you, developed in what I assume was your last thread. Good luck neke, and let me say it's rare to see someone telling what seems to be the whole truth on here, especially about losses.
great job neke!
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from traderNik:
it's rare to see someone telling what seems to be the whole truth on here, especially about losses.
__________________
'Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,' Says the LORD.
Quote from DblArrow:
Gotta love a place when they cheer and believe ya when you lose and call you all kinds of names when you win.
Nothing personal here - just seems to be the overall attitude - believe ya when you say your losing and think the worst of ya when you say your winning. (except maybe geez's thread).
__________________
...
Quote from BarbaraM:
Ok, Neke, it's that time again. Blow us all away with some awesome numbers. Many of us come to this site solely to follow your legendary trading skills. Don't disappoint us. The stage is yours....
Weekly Update for week 21/50 ended 06/06/2009
The slump continues. Down 15K (5.7%).
The emphasis has been taking the automated set-up alerts, with minimal size (about 20% of what I would normally take with my pure discretionary trades), and was having a flattish week - until Friday. Saw the market opening up strong on Friday, and decided to be adventurous. Bought 300 SPY calls, and witnessed as the market collapsed thereafter. Got out less than 30 minutes later, down 15K in stock and options.
Will continue my automated alert route, and make limited purely discretionary trades.
code:
Opening Balance: 261,199 Net loss for the week -15,062 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 246,137 Number of Trades 22 Number of Profitable Trades 13 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 06/06/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -73,927 (Down 23.1%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 246,137 Number of Trades 496 Number of Profitable Trades 311 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE NKE 2009-06-05-10-01-51 2009-06-05-12-08-41 6000 351027 353764 2707 LONG ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SWGFQ 2009-06-05-09-33-21 2009-06-05-10-00-16 30000 65400 52200 -13672 SPY CALL
Well, you are are not alone. I lost 25K this week as well.
Cheers
When Geithner finally spoke, I guess no one was listening.
Quote from BarbaraM:
Very disappointing, Neke. I thought for sure you would double your account this week!
Quote from BarbaraM:
Very disappointing, Neke. I thought for sure you would double your account this week!
Quote from BarbaraM:
Ok, Neke, it's that time again. Blow us all away with some awesome numbers. Many of us come to this site solely to follow your legendary trading skills. Don't disappoint us. The stage is yours....
100$ says its NOT a chick...
Quote from poyayan:
Neke and everyone, I think you all need to put this person on ignore list.
Quote from NoDoji:
I never did that before until now. Quickly plucked a pesky weed from this thread. Thanks!
Neke, previously you could say you were in a "slump". But up 30K one week, down 15K the next is no longer defined as a slump; it's a natural pullback in an uptrend
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 21/50 ended 06/06/2009
The slump continues. Down 15K (5.7%).
The emphasis has been taking the automated set-up alerts, with minimal size (about 20% of what I would normally take with my pure discretionary trades), and was having a flattish week - until Friday. Saw the market opening up strong on Friday, and decided to be adventurous. Bought 300 SPY calls, and witnessed as the market collapsed thereafter. Got out less than 30 minutes later, down 15K in stock and options.
Will continue my automated alert route, and make limited purely discretionary trades.
code:
Opening Balance: 261,199 Net loss for the week -15,062 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 246,137 Number of Trades 22 Number of Profitable Trades 13 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 06/06/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -73,927 (Down 23.1%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 246,137 Number of Trades 496 Number of Profitable Trades 311 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE NKE 2009-06-05-10-01-51 2009-06-05-12-08-41 6000 351027 353764 2707 LONG ---------------------------------------------------------------------- SWGFQ 2009-06-05-09-33-21 2009-06-05-10-00-16 30000 65400 52200 -13672 SPY CALL
More activity does not equal more profit....
Quote from bwolinsky:
And another 13.6k loss in SPY means you've lost over $110,000 on SPY calls and puts.
Quote from neke:
Where on earth are you getting your figures from? Just to set the record right, I went back to my last year and this year trades to calculate how much made through options. For the period covered by last years thread (1/10/2008 - 12/27/2008) I made 358K in options, of which SPY calls/puts accounted for 265K (mostly in the last 4 months of the year). This year, I am down 92K in options, of which SPY calls/puts are down just 2.3K (including this week's loss). So why not ask instead of cooking up figures?
Quote from bwolinsky:
Well there is some rounding, since you only post your largest wins and losses. If you were to go back on this thread (as I never had interest in following the other one), you have mostly large losses in SPY puts and calls totalling more than 110k now. I'm not saying those are your actual numbers, but I think that that doesn't fit with what you're saying you only lost 2.3k, when your largest losses from specifically spy options have been substantial. While I can accept that you only post the largest winning and losing trades, I seriously doubt you're only down 2.3k in spy options. The losses you've reported in the past are substantial, and you're not doing hundreds of trades a day for teenies. Mostly your position trading intraday, so I'd have to say I don't believe you.
code:
SWGEM 2009-05-06-09-57-34 2009-05-06-10-52-30 20000 43400 36200 -7515 SPY CALL SWGEM 2009-05-08-11-51-23 2009-05-08-14-41-13 20000 44600 53800 8885 SPY CALL SWGFQ 2009-06-05-09-33-21 2009-06-05-10-00-16 30000 65400 52200 -13672 SPY CALL SZCAD 2009-01-15-10-36-40 2009-01-15-14-02-34 10000 15400 22500 6936 SPY CALL SZCAJ 2009-01-12-10-08-27 2009-01-12-15-42-35 35000 58138 38500 -20191 SPY CALL SZCBD 2009-02-12-13-02-04 2009-02-12-15-01-43 40000 87000 66000 -21621 SPY CALL SZCCU 2009-03-02-10-41-48 2009-03-03-13-33-36 40000 94000 71008 -23620 SPY CALL SZCCZ 2009-02-20-14-43-46 2009-02-20-14-53-49 45000 153000 166500 12810 SPY MAR CALL SZCDC 2009-03-23-14-51-56 2009-03-23-15-40-11 20000 63795 71400 7441 SPY CALL SZCDE 2009-03-25-10-37-18 2009-03-25-12-47-16 20000 59000 51200 -8114 SPY CALL SZCEJ 2009-04-29-14-33-46 2009-04-29-15-32-31 20000 51600 42800 -9122 SPY CALL SZCNH 2009-02-06-12-30-45 2009-02-06-15-39-26 60000 138000 132616 -6313 SPY PUT SZCOR 2009-03-05-10-14-11 2009-03-05-11-58-38 20000 55800 71000 14886 SPY PUT SZCOX 2009-03-13-10-07-27 2009-03-13-11-18-23 20000 36800 47430 10316 SPY PUT SZCPA 2009-03-30-09-45-42 2009-03-30-15-05-15 20000 59200 68000 8486 SPY PUT
Quote from neke:
I don't mind responding to reasonable request for information, but when someone decides to fabricate information to glorify unreasoning skepticism, it becomes irritating. Let me give you the benefit of the doubt. Here are the SPY calls/puts (OPTIONS) mentionned in this years thread:
code:
SWGEM 2009-05-06-09-57-34 2009-05-06-10-52-30 20000 43400 36200 -7515 SPY CALL SWGEM 2009-05-08-11-51-23 2009-05-08-14-41-13 20000 44600 53800 8885 SPY CALL SWGFQ 2009-06-05-09-33-21 2009-06-05-10-00-16 30000 65400 52200 -13672 SPY CALL SZCAD 2009-01-15-10-36-40 2009-01-15-14-02-34 10000 15400 22500 6936 SPY CALL SZCAJ 2009-01-12-10-08-27 2009-01-12-15-42-35 35000 58138 38500 -20191 SPY CALL SZCBD 2009-02-12-13-02-04 2009-02-12-15-01-43 40000 87000 66000 -21621 SPY CALL SZCCU 2009-03-02-10-41-48 2009-03-03-13-33-36 40000 94000 71008 -23620 SPY CALL SZCCZ 2009-02-20-14-43-46 2009-02-20-14-53-49 45000 153000 166500 12810 SPY MAR CALL SZCDC 2009-03-23-14-51-56 2009-03-23-15-40-11 20000 63795 71400 7441 SPY CALL SZCDE 2009-03-25-10-37-18 2009-03-25-12-47-16 20000 59000 51200 -8114 SPY CALL SZCEJ 2009-04-29-14-33-46 2009-04-29-15-32-31 20000 51600 42800 -9122 SPY CALL SZCNH 2009-02-06-12-30-45 2009-02-06-15-39-26 60000 138000 132616 -6313 SPY PUT SZCOR 2009-03-05-10-14-11 2009-03-05-11-58-38 20000 55800 71000 14886 SPY PUT SZCOX 2009-03-13-10-07-27 2009-03-13-11-18-23 20000 36800 47430 10316 SPY PUT SZCPA 2009-03-30-09-45-42 2009-03-30-15-05-15 20000 59200 68000 8486 SPY PUT
The total comes to -40K not -110K like you claimed. Now show the list you used. Everyone knows I post my biggest gainers/losers. My win percentage is high (roughly 60%), but the size of my biggest losers outstrip that of the biggest gainers ( could blame that on averaging down). So why is it difficult to believe that the total loss could be 2.3K even though the total for the top gainers/lossers (let's even say equal count) could be as high as 40K?
Quote from bwolinsky:
Looks like I was counting SPY AND SPY Calls and Puts. Most have double counted one of the -20k losses. But this is what I get in chronological order from the thread on your SPY trades:
Comes to almost -$84k.
Quote from atticus:
What do you gain by [incorrectly] accounting for Neke's losses?
Quote from bwolinsky:
Nothing, but maybe the passerby who comes across the article puts it into context. If I had to pick one thing Neke's lost on, it's SPY and its derivatives. I know it will help others put his trading into context.
To what end would Neke bother falsifying some particular piece of his results? He consistently posts both the good & the nasty - especially knowing that posts in either direction bring out the infamous non-trading ET prophets castigating him for some bit of perceived idiocy.
Quote from bwolinsky:
Mostly your position trading intraday, so I'd have to say I don't believe you.
Quote from atticus:
Ahh, altruism.
Right on! Neke can do it! He is not gambling... he is a pro trader!
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
No thanks, I actually like to get laid once in a while.
Now start your own fucking thread meathead.
P.S. Borat called, he wants his suit back.
Quote from BarbaraM:
I agree, Neke is beyond reproach!
BTW...good one Neke, having those trades ready just in case, you are one smart cookie.
Naysayers, be forewarned!
Quote from rolextrader:
How does it feel to have chronic menstral cramps?
Quote from RL8093:
To what end would Neke bother falsifying some particular piece of his results? He consistently posts both the good & the nasty - especially knowing that posts in either direction bring out the infamous non-trading ET prophets castigating him for some bit of perceived idiocy.
R
Quote from BarbaraM:
I agree, Neke is beyond reproach!
BTW...good one Neke, having those trades ready just in case, you are one smart cookie.
Naysayers, be forewarned!
Quote from bwolinsky:
He claims to have only lost 2.3k on SPY Derivatives. The thread suggests substantially more than that, and that's the part that I don't believe. He has no edge in spy or any spx derivative, yet continues to risk cars on these trades or a cheap house.
Quote from shbhanda:
From the regularity and detail of his posts you have to assume that Neke is one of the most honest posters on here....
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 21/50 ended 06/06/2009
Will continue my automated alert route, and make limited purely discretionary trades.
[/code][/font]
It is extremely difficult to make $$ longing calls or puts. I am too a cheerleader for Neke and honestly his trading style needs to be revised.
Weekly Update for week 22/50 ended 06/13/2009
Lost for words for the downturn. Down another 18.5K (7.5%).
I guess I wasn't careful enough with my discretionary trades once again. The culprits were SLM on Monday, and NAV on Tuesday.
On Monday shorted 20000 SLM @ 7.24 pre-market, and added more as it rose. I just noted at the time it was rising as a result of a Cramer pump the prior friday. (Used to fade those pops on Cramers Mad Money a number of years ago when the show was relatively new, and his recommendations lead to big pops in after hours. Made quite some money, but left off when he didn't appear to carry much weight anymore, no more big moves AH. So was surprised to see his call rise so much in pre-market and decided to short). Little did I realise that two analysts had joined him in upgrading the stock (collusion or coincidence?) So instead of me vs. Cramer, it was me vs. Cramer + 2 analysts. OK they won, and I was hit with a 17K loss.
Tuesday, it was NAv that refused to go down after what looked like a horrible earnings forecast. Apparently the market knew much more than I did. Made up for some of the losses with my pint-sized automated alert trades.
With my cut-off threshhold of 225K being hit intra-week, attention will now be focused on improving my automated alerts and trades, and gradually size up as performance dictates. Right now, I am on Level 3 with my automated trade sizing - this means for the average stock trade I would commit just 30% of my account value, which comes to just about 67K now. Compare that to some of my discretionary trades where I have committed 300% of account value intraday. Good thing I could afford to take a lot of those alerts and not be too pre-occupied with one trade going bad.
Further restrictions are being placed on criteria for discretionary trades, such that if I took more than two discretionary trades a week, I must have overtraded. On second thought, I think cutting them off altogether may be harmful in the long run. Prior to this year, they have accounted for the bulk of my gains, and I believe when the time is right, things may fall into place again.
code:
Opening Balance: 246,132 Net loss for the week -18,615 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 227,517 Number of Trades 21 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 06/13/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -92,547 (Down 28.9%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 227,517 Number of Trades 517 Number of Profitable Trades 322 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NAV 2009-06-09-09-53-56 2009-06-09-11-30-02 4000 174375 169936 -4478 SHORT SLM 2009-06-08-08-00-00 2009-06-08-15-51-12 74000 573519 556807 -16831 SHORT
Quote from neke:
Little did I realise that two analysts had joined him in upgrading the stock (collusion or coincidence?) So instead of me vs. Cramer, it was me vs. Cramer + 2 analysts. OK they won, and I was hit with a 17K loss.
Since half the year is gone and your equity curve seems totally random are you questioning if your system or trading plan are severely flawed? Although your previous couple journals were pretty kick ass so..
Not trying to be a dick but just want to get your perspective.
I've worked with traders long enough to know a death spiral when I see one.
I eyeballed your equity chart in May and figured your psychological break point is 200K. Which you are about to hit.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...840#post2437840
You go lower and you'll do yourself serious psychological harm. A equity stop on the entire account is highly recommended. If you want to discuss solutions send me a pm.
Quote from neke:
[/code][/font]
Don't know much about trading, but follow your thread for at least a year.
I have seen enough phony financial advisers and fund managers that I really want to see you be successful.
Anyway, got to polish your weapon before going to war... So, I agree with red ink here.
Neke, you are not listening to the market; you are deciding what the market should do and refusing to believe it when it doesn't do it. I wiped out 30% of my first quarter gains in April by doing this exact same thing. Fortunately it was my GAINS I wiped out, not my core capital.
If your setups are solid, the trade should go your way in very short order. If it doesn't, get out, or better yet, reverse your position. I exited several trades today at or near break even when they didn't go my way. My stops were tight, because the setups were decent and there was no reason to endure a draw down if the setup was invalidated. In fact, if I'd simply reversed my position at the point my stops were triggered, I'd have doubled my profit today!
I dont normally post in peoples journals but I just thought i would point out that it seems that the point in which you started to lose money is the same point in which the markets started to rally. Seems like you made the bulk of your money during the downtrend and since you made alot doing that, you stuck to that type of trading. Since march we have been in a rally and thats when you started losing money. So now you just gotta do the opposite of whatever you were doing...just like opposite george.
Neke are you cutting your losses short? if so theres no problem with having a losing week.
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
NAV 2009-06-09-09-53-56 2009-06-09-11-30-02 4000 174375 169936 -4478 SHORT
SLM 2009-06-08-08-00-00 2009-06-08-15-51-12 74000 573519 556807 -16831 SHORT
Would your results the past few weeks have been appreciably different if you never added to losing trades? My guess is dramatically so. Good luck.
Quote from NeoRio1:
Your discretionary trades are killing you. Why don't you abolish the "limited" discretionary trades for a couple weeks?
You think you are making a change but you keep on conducting the same failed experiment over and over and over. Just now instead of conducting the same failed experiment daily you conduct it weekly.
You use to be the best pitcher in the majors with the best curveball. This year the batters are hitting your curveball out of the park left and right and yet you still keep throwing that same curveball.
To put it frankly you are stubborn as hell, you fell in love with a method and show no willingness to give it up.
Pull the plug, the bitch is dead!
There but for the grace of God (go I)
I’m an occasional reader of this journal. I appreciate your sincerity and directness and truly wish you the best.
Your psychological motivation and technical or fundamental reasons for taking a trade must be examined.
A couple of your recent comments really stand out:
06-05-09 comments - Motivated by adventure…..???
I want to help you. You have enough balls and have your own methods so you're worth helping.
First problem to be corrected. NAV. I looked at their report too. I'm shocked they went up like they did. I had an option on FRX once. They blew out earnings, everything was positive. I bought the option for an intraday trade after the first pullback that day. The stock ended down like 12+%. I thought it was ridiculous and kept my option. I got zeroed out even though there was time for the market to come back to it's senses before expiration. You should not try to predict OR CORRECT the market's reaction to your interpretation of news. True, it is extremely rare that a stock will do the opposite like NAV and FRX did, but it can happen. There's so much money to be made with greater certainty than prediction brings, it's just not worth the risk.
I see you grasping for straws. You have to remember that trading is a business and profits should be expected; not joyous. There is no getback. It's more mathematical than anything. The only joy should be from it making more money than expected. The problem I see with you right now is prediction. I still have no explanation for that reaction on FRX or for that matter NAV, so I write them off as rare anomalies. Don't put yourself into a position where you have to force your correctness on the market.
SLM-If you weren't predicting that it would be faded, you would not have lost money. Pre-market/post-market is the epitome of prediction, especially since you're probably betting on movement for only the following trading day. Don't do anything pre-market or post-market anymore. Period. I'm sure you were shocked at the run SLM did at the open. There was no need to endure it. It is far more rare that reversals occur in pre/after market than the direction continuing. You may be proven right eventually, but you may endure pain you don't want to take with trading ahead of the market.
I suggested that you only trade the sure thing a few weeks ago. That advice is still cogent. The case cannot be made that Cramer's recommendations make any fundamental impact on the company, so that cannot be a sure thing. You were right to look at earnings with NAV, but you messed up with your ahead of the curve approach. If you had waited for the initial run to subside and then shorted, you'd be flattish and possibly ready for the rollover. Simply correct that and be patient for some real fundamental news and you will righ the ship.
Wilt
Great advice from Wilt and LongScalper.
NAV broke through previous resistance Monday and that's a signal to wait for confirmation of a breakout or false breakout before shorting.
More importantly: News
You see the earnings capsule and make a decision based on "good" or "bad", but unless you're in on the conference call, you have NO IDEA what the big money is gonna do.
You reacted to a major earnings miss and lowered guidance, but you missed crucial info from the CEO that the institutional money is going to base its decision on when a stock is trading at a 42% discount to its 52-week high:
Ustian said Navistar has been cutting costs and gaining market share. The company's military truck sales, joint ventures with other vehicle makers and other sideline businesses are helping to offset the weakness in the commercial truck market.
On June 4, Navistar completed the purchase of recreational vehicle maker Monaco Coach Corp. for $47 million. The Oregon-based company, which had filed for bankruptcy earlier this year, is expected to contribute $600 million to $1 billion in revenue to Navistar by the end of 2011.
Navistar also noted that the U.S. Pentagon recently increased the anticipated order size for new armored utility trucks for U.S. troops in Afghanistan to as many as 10,000 vehicles from 2,800. Navistar is one of several truck builders competing for a production contract for the vehicle.
"This is significant amount of business for someone, and we know we're in the mix," Ustian said. Navistar expects sales of military trucks to generate at least $2.7 billion in revenue this year.
Navistar's robust sales of trucks to the military in recent years also is helping to drive revenue higher from replacement parts. Revenue from parts sales rose 32% in the quarter.
How can I get killed when expectancy is on my side? So let me pull the trigger once more... An unfounded application of otherwise rigorous mathematics is in practice as simple as proving that all cats are black using induction. Logic is indeed always impeccable, math sufficiently rigorous, and the only catch is the initial assumption. The first cat need not be black, returns continuous, defaults uncorrelated. Edge need not be stable over all time periods as the Kelly's static model implicitly assumed (kudos to OP for trying to repair this fatal flaw using moving edge estimates - which in themselves required an assumption of the decay factor - not high enough apparently). Generously granting that edge was positive in the first place rather than merely being an unhedged exposure to some risk factors (long vega is a strong suspect here). It is much better to merely guess about what follows from more-relevant assumptions than derive precise conclusions from less-relevant assumptions. Especially when relying on economic quantities which are so hard to estimate as the 'edge' or alpha ('our estimates of expected return are so poor they are almost laughable' - F. Black)
Quote from Port1385:
Its time to get out now. Your down 18 grand and next week might be another 18 grand. Next thing you know you will be like Lenny Dykstra getting sued by the brokerages because you blew the account and couldnt repay the margin loan.
neke,
don't listen to most of those who are acting as advisors to you, because they have no clue what they are talking about.
If you listen to my advice, you will avoid being misled by them.
See, that's good advice, all systems have draw downs, it only becomes a problem if you revenge trade when you are down.
Quote from BPtrader:
neke,
don't listen to most of those who are acting as advisors to you, because they have no clue what they are talking about.
If you listen to my advice, you will avoid being misled by them.
Neke,
Out of curiosity, may I ask if you're trading this as a proprietor or within an entity such as a C Corp or LLC? thanks
Gotta love all the people preaching like Moses but when you hit the P/L journal most of them are nowhere to be found.
Let's not forget the most important part of trading, psychology, that cannot be taught.
Godspeed Neke.
__________________
Nexen
Daytrader not paper
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 22/50 ended 06/13/2009
Lost for words for the downturn. Down another 18.5K (7.5%).
I guess I wasn't careful enough with my discretionary trades once again. The culprits were SLM on Monday, and NAV on Tuesday.
On Monday shorted 20000 SLM @ 7.24 pre-market, and added more as it rose. I just noted at the time it was rising as a result of a Cramer pump the prior friday. (Used to fade those pops on Cramers Mad Money a number of years ago when the show was relatively new, and his recommendations lead to big pops in after hours. Made quite some money, but left off when he didn't appear to carry much weight anymore, no more big moves AH. So was surprised to see his call rise so much in pre-market and decided to short). Little did I realise that two analysts had joined him in upgrading the stock (collusion or coincidence?) So instead of me vs. Cramer, it was me vs. Cramer + 2 analysts. OK they won, and I was hit with a 17K loss.
Tuesday, it was NAv that refused to go down after what looked like a horrible earnings forecast. Apparently the market knew much more than I did. Made up for some of the losses with my pint-sized automated alert trades.
With my cut-off threshhold of 225K being hit intra-week, attention will now be focused on improving my automated alerts and trades, and gradually size up as performance dictates. Right now, I am on Level 3 with my automated trade sizing - this means for the average stock trade I would commit just 30% of my account value, which comes to just about 67K now. Compare that to some of my discretionary trades where I have committed 300% of account value intraday. Good thing I could afford to take a lot of those alerts and not be too pre-occupied with one trade going bad.
Further restrictions are being placed on criteria for discretionary trades, such that if I took more than two discretionary trades a week, I must have overtraded. On second thought, I think cutting them off altogether may be harmful in the long run. Prior to this year, they have accounted for the bulk of my gains, and I believe when the time is right, things may fall into place again.
code:
Opening Balance: 246,132 Net loss for the week -18,615 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 227,517 Number of Trades 21 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 06/13/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -92,547 (Down 28.9%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 227,517 Number of Trades 517 Number of Profitable Trades 322 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE ---------------------------------------------------------------------- NAV 2009-06-09-09-53-56 2009-06-09-11-30-02 4000 174375 169936 -4478 SHORT SLM 2009-06-08-08-00-00 2009-06-08-15-51-12 74000 573519 556807 -16831 SHORT
Neke,
I just joined the forum. Yours was the first and possibly only one
that I will view today. I also have an Ameritrade account. My
concern here is that I believe it would be prudent to buy puts
on positions for "insurance." I've been studying
poweropt/webinars.asp for over a week, now. I have never
used this method and my account reflects it. I plan on using
it, though. Right now I am upsidedown in FAZ and I am just idling
and planning ways to turn my account around. I wish you the
best.
What many fail to realize is that just one good trade will bring him back into the black. In fact, one good trade can make him reach his goal within a few weeks.
There are many single digit stocks on the move up all the time everyday doubling and tripling.
He just needs to get on the train and ride it up like most ET traders do all the time.
Quote from PeterEastgate:
What many fail to realize is that just one good trade will bring him back into the black.
Quote from NoDoji:
This is the kind of thinking that brings gambling addicts to their darkest days.
Neke doesn't need this kind of bullsh*t on his journal. He's had $60K trades in the past and knows that a home run or two can "bring him back". He puts on big trades expecting big profits; that's his style. Sadly he's stayed in losers far past the point of invalidation, and exited with a huge loss close to the capitulation point, only to see the trade reverse to break even or possibly even a profit. This lack of risk management causes a trader to think ANY trade will eventually become profitable with enough patience, averaging, etc, and the trader continues to repeat the same mistakes until the account is gone.
A professional, successful trader will rack up the singles day after day, and now and then hit home runs with the bases loaded because they've trained well and are prepared when the big game is on.
Quote from NoDoji:
This is the kind of thinking that brings gambling addicts to their darkest days.
Neke doesn't need this kind of bullsh*t on his journal. He's had $60K trades in the past and knows that a home run or two can "bring him back". He puts on big trades expecting big profits; that's his style. Sadly he's stayed in losers far past the point of invalidation, and exited with a huge loss close to the capitulation point, only to see the trade reverse to break even or possibly even a profit. This lack of risk management causes a trader to think ANY trade will eventually become profitable with enough patience, averaging, etc, and the trader continues to repeat the same mistakes until the account is gone.
A professional, successful trader will rack up the singles day after day, and now and then hit home runs with the bases loaded because they've trained well and are prepared when the big game is on.
Quote from peilthetraveler:
I dont normally post in peoples journals but I just thought i would point out that it seems that the point in which you started to lose money is the same point in which the markets started to rally. Seems like you made the bulk of your money during the downtrend and since you made alot doing that, you stuck to that type of trading. Since march we have been in a rally and thats when you started losing money.
Quote from Mvic:
Would your results the past few weeks have been appreciably different if you never added to losing trades? My guess is dramatically so. Good luck.
IMHO, one of Neke's problems is that his journal is interactive. As a result, he is consulted by dozens of 'experts' during a time when he should be retreating to his 'den' & refining HIS strategies (not the strategies of others).
Opinions are like assholes. Everybody has one & they all stink.
My style is a different world but I say buy:
TNDM at 24-25ish if it'll let ya with a tight stop at 23.5. If it rolls up, it could retest 30+.
MVSN at open with a tight stop at 22.4 (should go to 28ish)
STAR at 22.8 with a stop at 21.9( may go to 28).
And....how bout ARUN at 7. (may hit 10)
NTES is a watch too.
Whatever doesnt get stopped out build up. And all stops are mental. Give it a couple weeks and see what happens... -Topher
Opinions are like assholes. Everybody has one & they all stink. [/B]
Quote from topherea:
My style is a different world but I say buy:
TNDM at 24-25ish if it'll let ya with a tight stop at 23.5. If it rolls up, it could retest 30+.
PE of 30
MVSN at open with a tight stop at 22.4 (should go to 28ish)
PE of 442
STAR at 22.8 with a stop at 21.9( may go to 28).
PE at 26.91
And....how bout ARUN at 7. (may hit 10)
-5% earnings yield
NTES is a watch too.
PE of 20
Give it a couple weeks and see what happens... -Topher
Yeah I know they're running a bit hot. And ARUN is really outside of my comfort zone. MVSN to me is amazing that it continues up at it's valuation, and has been for the last 6 months without much volatility...(things that make you go hmmm..) But in contrast, look at the volatility on TMDN!
My reasoning is based on trend and averages. I know my advice wont be taken seriously. I'm just having some speculative fun.
If current valuation is a priority, these may feel more in the comfort zone:
DELL at 12.3 
FSYS at 22
MYRG at 18.5
FUQI at 14
For me, as a one to four day position trader, trend, buy point and momentum outweigh valuation because my finger is always on the trigger to sell if the stock doesn't do what I think it will. Best regards
-Topher
P.s. Neke and all who follow this thread, I apologize for my intrusion.
Neke just needs one good trade to bring him up.
First post here,
I have read the thread and I think all should take it for what it is, a gambling thread. I am not criticizing but most of the trades taken were not taken with a lot of logic or market insight thats just a fact. I never wish anyone to fail in their endevor but as Ed Seykota (or was it another prominent trend follower?) once said, everyone is getting what they want to get out of their decisions/strategies. Neke is taking huge risk and has to accept huge drawdowns as well, even risking a complete blow up of his account. So, I dont understand why some flame him for his decision to go this route. It never was nor will it ever be my trading style but hey, I am not Neke and Neke is not me. Good luck!!!
Neke,
Accept you prefer shorting... In strong markets, do little if anything. If you must, short the weak. Markets are seasonally weak in September/October and you'll make a mint then.
I asked last year if you use TA... seems you don't. At least use VERY SIMPLE price level analysis, forget the complex, useless stuff.
Psychologically, you are nearing a bad place. I have been here and trust me, a break is highly recommended. I refused to take one as I thought the time lost was lost profits but actually was the opposite. The time you are nearing is the fear zone which is hard to get out of.
Finally, the pressure of a public journal I sometimes wonder the effect it has on results. Why are you keeping a public Journal? To prove something? Fine, we all do this. The other reason "should" be to hopefully get some good pointers when you are suffering. There are some here that give genuinely good advice but it seems you are here purely to prove something as you clearly don't take advice (I did but only briefly). And please ignore the dolts that say "just one more trade and you'll....." What does that line remind you of?
I think the best sign of a good trader are flat lines on the equity curve showing the trader's discipline to do nothing when either they are in a funk or there are simply no good trades.
TAKE THE BREAK!! YOU WILL SAVE MONEY!! Can't believe I am giving the very advice I didn't take... What's the rush? Remember what Livermore said about the Wall Street fool that thinks he has to trade all the time.
__________________
Swing Trader
http://www.covestor.com/mbr/retire48
Dont listen to these clowns. You are one trade away from doubling or tripling your cash. The stock market goes both ways, it takes, but it also gives to the righteous.
Just find one good stock and ride it up on full margin or ride these bad ones down...anyway, its time to get back to trading. Dont take a break or opportunities will be missed.
Quote from asiaprop:
First post here,
I have read the thread and I think all should take it for what it is, a gambling thread. I am not criticizing but most of the trades taken were not taken with a lot of logic or market insight thats just a fact. I never wish anyone to fail in their endevor but as Ed Seykota (or was it another prominent trend follower?) once said, everyone is getting what they want to get out of their decisions/strategies. Neke is taking huge risk and has to accept huge drawdowns as well, even risking a complete blow up of his account. So, I dont understand why some flame him for his decision to go this route. It never was nor will it ever be my trading style but hey, I am not Neke and Neke is not me. Good luck!!!
fully agree with your assessment but again this thread was not about disciplined trading, correct? I think he pointed out in the very beginning that he is a gun slinger and again, everyone gets out of the market what they look for, Neke never attempted to be a disciplined trader otherwise his account last year would have never grown so fast initially. Again, I do not agree with the approach but its not my thread nor yours. Peace...
Quote from NeoRio1:
First of all it wouldn't matter whether Neke had 300k or ten million. The only difference is that the road to ruin/capitulation would be a few more trades away.
Basically far right conservatives are to far left liberals as disciplined traders are to Neke's strategy.
Everything Neke believes is everything disciplined traders disagree with. Thats why they flame him.
Quote from asiaprop:
fully agree with your assessment but again this thread was not about disciplined trading, correct? I think he pointed out in the very beginning that he is a gun slinger and again, everyone gets out of the market what they look for, Neke never attempted to be a disciplined trader otherwise his account last year would have never grown so fast initially. Again, I do not agree with the approach but its not my thread nor yours. Peace...
Quote from NeoRio1:
First of all it wouldn't matter whether Neke had 300k or ten million. The only difference is that the road to ruin/capitulation would be a few more trades away.
Basically far right conservatives are to far left liberals as disciplined traders are to Neke's strategy.
Everything Neke believes is everything disciplined traders disagree with. Thats why they flame him.
jealous? neke has accomplished far more than your cheap wannabe institutional ass. you should shine his shoes for the opportunity to read this thread. you think you're better than people here? get the fuck out then and crawl back to your desk where you can keep deluding yourself that you're a trader. you're a cheap employee who can't trade. that's why you're an employee. loser.
Quote from asiaprop:
First post here,
I have read the thread and I think all should take it for what it is, a gambling thread. I am not criticizing but most of the trades taken were not taken with a lot of logic or market insight thats just a fact. I never wish anyone to fail in their endevor but as Ed Seykota (or was it another prominent trend follower?) once said, everyone is getting what they want to get out of their decisions/strategies. Neke is taking huge risk and has to accept huge drawdowns as well, even risking a complete blow up of his account. So, I dont understand why some flame him for his decision to go this route. It never was nor will it ever be my trading style but hey, I am not Neke and Neke is not me. Good luck!!!
Quote from timmyz:
jealous? neke has accomplished far more than your cheap wannabe institutional ass. you should shine his shoes for the opportunity to read this thread. you think you're better than people here? get the fuck out then and crawl back to your desk where you can keep deluding yourself that you're a trader. you're a cheap employee who can't trade. that's why you're an employee. loser.
let me guess. you're asiaprop's 69 partner. the two of you can keep deluding yourselves that you're successful traders just because you know the latest trading jargon which you believe makes you an "intelligent" trader. lmao.
don't forget to set your alarm tonight so you can get to work on time in the morning. you need to be there on time and report your cheap ass to your slightly less cheap boss. i know you're very _disciplined_ at doing that.
Quote from timmyz:
let me guess. you're asiaprop's 69 partner. the two of you can keep deluding yourselves that you're successful traders just because you know the latest trading jargon which you believe makes you an "intelligent" trader. lmao.
don't forget to set your alarm tonight so you can get to work on time in the morning. you need to be there on time and report your cheap ass to your slightly less cheap boss. i know you're very _disciplined_ at doing that.
People, why dontcha create another thread to either praise or criticize neke. Leave this thread to allow neke to post his weekly updates. Don't trash it for ure utterly worthless ego.
Quote from saliva:
People, why dontcha create another thread to either praise or criticize neke. Leave this thread to allow neke to post his weekly updates. Don't trash it for ure utterly worthless ego.
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
g(histf(strategy), recentf(strategy))
anybody knows what is the g stands for? thanks.
...play the ball low buddy. Point is all he accomplished was to blow out a significant % not even only of what he made this year (he has not so far) but a big portion of his winnings from even last year. I recommend you dont make gun slingers to your idol otherwise in case they blow out you may also need to shoot yourself.
My point was that this volatility in his equity curve is something that Neke is obviously seeking otherwise he would have listened to the uncountable number of posts made by others and reduce his volatility and trading size. There is no point in flaming him now that he is on a losing streak, something that was inevitable. He must have and certainly is aware this would happen down the road. Case closed. And what is your point?
Quote from timmyz:
jealous? neke has accomplished far more than your cheap wannabe institutional ass. you should shine his shoes for the opportunity to read this thread. you think you're better than people here? get the fuck out then and crawl back to your desk where you can keep deluding yourself that you're a trader. you're a cheap employee who can't trade. that's why you're an employee. loser.
Quote from retire45:...
There are some here that give genuinely good advice but it seems you are here purely to prove something as you clearly don't take advice (I did but only briefly). ...
neke,
Buy STEC on an intraday pullback from right now....
That's your horse.
FUQI and STEC both are looking strong... Tight (mental) stops. That's my worthless opinion. My limits on both are slightly lower than where they're selling now
you've been paper trading your whole career. you just don't know it. nevermind that though. you're too good for the people here right? get the fuck outta here and crawl back to wilmott.com where all the other delusional losers like yourself hang out.
oh you can short&naked with you. i'll take care of his wife while the two of you get really obscene with the vaseline. ;)
Quote from asiaprop:
...play the ball low buddy. Point is all he accomplished was to blow out a significant % not even only of what he made this year (he has not so far) but a big portion of his winnings from even last year. I recommend you dont make gun slingers to your idol otherwise in case they blow out you may also need to shoot yourself.
My point was that this volatility in his equity curve is something that Neke is obviously seeking otherwise he would have listened to the uncountable number of posts made by others and reduce his volatility and trading size. There is no point in flaming him now that he is on a losing streak, something that was inevitable. He must have and certainly is aware this would happen down the road. Case closed. And what is your point?
1) develop a strategy and stick to it
2) cut losses early
3) make the position size a function of your account size and profit/stop targets of the position.
No point in listing advice I dont agree with, above you find pretty much in every basic book.
Cheers
Quote from neke:
Could you please itemize in objective form all the advice ever given here (including the ones you don't agree with), and then tell me the ones you would take?
Quote from bwolinsky:
These are all overvalued. NTES not so much, MVSN grossly so. PE is too high for all of them in a slow growth environment.
Quote from neke:
Could you please itemize in objective form all the advice ever given here (including the ones you don't agree with), and then tell me the ones you would take?
__________________
Swing Trader
http://www.covestor.com/mbr/retire48
Let me guess . . . did you buy POT calls this week?
Hi Neke,
Hope you traded well this week, im eagerly waiting your weekly update.
You have inspired me to start my own ET journal, in a similar style to yours, although my account has nowhere near the balance yours has.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=167177
Quote from neke:
Could you please itemize in objective form all the advice ever given here (including the ones you don't agree with), and then tell me the ones you would take?
Quote from NeoRio1:
You're really looking for advice on this site?
Oh the horror...
Freeze all trading NOW!
Quote from Trader KGB:
sarchasm
Quote from BarbaraM:
Ok Neke, time to put all the naysayers to rest. Tell them all, how just a few good trades this week have propelled your account over the one million mark! Looks like you are laughing all the way to the bank.
Weekly Update for week 23/50 ended 06/20/2009
A better week. Down 2K (1%). At least the second derivative is positive.
Was gun-shy for much of the week, concentrating on taking my automated alerts. That was essentially break-even with the tiny size being committed.
Will continue development on the automated end.
code:
Opening Balance: 227,517 Net loss for the week -2,147 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 225,370 Number of Trades 27 Number of Profitable Trades 14 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 06/20/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -94,694 (Down 29.6%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 225,370 Number of Trades 544 Number of Profitable Trades 338 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SWGFL 2009-06-17-10-46-17 2009-06-17-12-59-44 10000 14500 19900 5236 SPY CALL ------------------------------------------------------------------ WPI 2009-06-18-10-09-08 2009-06-18-11-06-35 9000 289537 284286 -5322 SHORT
Quote from NeoRio1:
When a guy is blowing his account to shreds and he asks for advice I doubt he is being sarcastic buddy...
Quote from NeoRio1:
When a guy is blowing his account to shreds and he asks for advice I doubt he is being sarcastic buddy...
__________________
...
A better week. Down 2K (1%).
Quote from bwolinsky:
Oh, boy, Barbara, most of your posts are just hilarious. I'd say down another 20k, and are you his mom or something?
__________________
...
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 7/50 ended 02/28/2009
Flattish week, up 3.8K (1%). It was a fantastic week on another front with the birth of our baby boy. Spent most of the week on errands, though managed to flip a few trades in between errands.
code:
Opening Balance: 363,763 Net gain for the week 3,860 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 367,623 .........
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
And as for you bwolinsky ... bro, you're paper-trading a jack hershey ATS as your claim to fame in these parts hereabout.
When you're putting the reall dollars on the line and feeling the joy of success or the burn of one loss after another, then you can advise neke.
But until then ... he's operating on another level from where you're standing. You should have respect when looking up to him.
Quote from neke:
Your sense of perception must be awful. And no, I am not blowing my account to shreds, neither do I need your advice.
Quote from NeoRio1:
I didn't take it sarcastically because the guy you were talking too didn't take it sarcastically.
Of course you don't believe you are blowing your account to shreds. That's WHY you are blowing your account to shreds.
350k to 225k.
You said I was the one with the awful perception?
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
Dude, make a Live Call, post a Blotter, hell do something constructive, but stop trashing Neke's thread ... jealousy must suck!
Neke's trading style has big swing. You took the highest point of his account and compare it to current value. It is like CNBC saying the market has risen 40% from low point during March. Hence, we are in a bull market?
Pointless....
If neke said he doesn't need your advice, then he doesn't.
Nothing against you. Just move on...
Guys:
If you have something constructive and useful to add to this journal that could benefit Neke as well as the subscribers, post it here.
If you want to make a snide comment to Neke, or discuss something very specific with him, PM him.
If you want to argue with each other and engage in putdown one-upmanship, start a new thread in Chit Chat.
Neke I think this could help.
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthrea...threadid=167533
__________________
Brendan Quinn-Narkin
Quote from IndexSwing:
Neke I think this could help.
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthrea...threadid=167533
I wrote the post with Neke in mind. Not sure how providing a link instead of writing the whole thing out again makes me feckless.
__________________
Brendan Quinn-Narkin
I'm rooting for ya, Mandy. Shoot these motherfucking worthless self-pontificated trolls, who obviously only know how to talk, to their rightful place. What a fucking bunch of morons. Geezus, I almost feel sorry for them!
And you, Bwolinskite, nobody cares about your after-the-fact paper trading performance. Put our doubts to rest once and for all by showing us your trades in REALTIME. Otherwise, I personally think you are a flake!
(And, believe me, some of us do post in realtime. But it was you who brought this upon yourself. You always wanted proof. NOW I WANT PROOF.)
This is for ya, Neke. Don't stop believing bro! (Damn, couldn't find the right video )
Quote from bwolinsky:
I manage several million dollars which is way more money than 99% of this site, Mandy.
Quote from saliva:
I'm rooting for ya, Mandy. Shoot these motherfucking worthless self-pontificated trolls, who obviously only know how to talk, to their rightful place. What a fucking bunch of morons. Geezus, I almost feel sorry for them!
And you, Bwolinskite, nobody cares about your after-the-fact paper trading performance. Put our doubts to rest once and for all by showing us your trades in REALTIME. Otherwise, I personally think you are a flake!
(And, believe me, some of us do post in realtime. But it was you who brought this upon yourself. You always wanted proof. NOW I WANT PROOF.)
__________________
...
That's right. However, that's purely up to Neke to decide. After all, it's his own money that's on the line.
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
Thanks sal.
They don't seem to realize that it's really easy to identify someone else's weak spot and tell them what to do, but it's extremely difficult to identify your own weak spot, and take the steps required to fix it.
Once you've done so neke, the world is your oyster.
Good trading
Quote from NeoRio1:
I am not trashing his thread.
I merely stated the obvious that he has shredded a significant portion of his account.
Optimism and trading do not go together.
That is probably the reason why you are a failure.
If you can accept the cold hard reality then you can make the most accurate decisions.
Quote from saliva:
I'm rooting for ya, Mandy. Shoot these motherfucking worthless self-pontificated trolls, who obviously only know how to talk, to their rightful place. What a fucking bunch of morons. Geezus, I almost feel sorry for them!
And you, Bwolinskite, nobody cares about your after-the-fact paper trading performance. Put our doubts to rest once and for all by showing us your trades in REALTIME. Otherwise, I personally think you are a flake!
(And, believe me, some of us do post in realtime. But it was you who brought this upon yourself. You always wanted proof. NOW I WANT PROOF.)
Quote from BPtrader:
You are a pathetic bagholder! The word "manage" reveals that you know nothing about TRADING. The way you panic at the thought of a 30% drawdown confirms my belief that you know nothing about TRADING. Furthermore, you totally misunderstand the way neke is trading.
As a bagholder, you demonstrated your blissful ignorance in trying to give advice to neke.
I read neke's earlier posts and I am convinced that neke knows what he is doing. He has been doing great for years until the recent rough patch.
Maybe I am wasting my time responding to your post, because I know your brain just doesn't comprehend the definition of the word TRADING. TRADING must be an alien concept to you.
"manage"? You make me laugh.
Everytime a person talks about "money management," I know he knows nothing, he is just throwing the term around trying to impress/confuse others and hide his own ignorance.
Quote from bwolinsky:
I know how to trade, but the mods won't let me post my ranking of 9.72 on c2, currently. Neke doesn't. 30% wouldn't phase me if I was annualizing about that, and I am.
Quote from crash n burn:
dude your c2 system is laughable at best.
so far you had two subscribers and both trashed the system before throwing in the towel.
the equity curve looks like a ford pinto.
and the system description is filled with the typical wannabe-wants-to-impress-the-masses stuff in a futile attempt to mask your own ignorance.
My God !!
An interesting journal of NEKE'S and it has turned into a pissing match.
Perhaps a moderator could delete all posts unrelated to Neke's Journal , and hopefully it will stay on topic.
Considering the mess it has turned into I would be surprised if Neke ever posts again in this journal.
Found the journal interesting , much more than journals about scalping.
__________________
monee
At this point, neke SHOULD cease posting. Otherwise these idiots who have nothing better to do than to lecture how neke should or should not trade will never stop. I've done more than my share of telling these assholes to lay off neke and let him trade the way he sees fit. But no, not these self-righteous born-again morons.
Quote from saliva:
At this point, neke SHOULD cease posting. Otherwise these idiots who have nothing better to do than to lecture how neke should or should not trade will never stop. I've done more than my share of telling these assholes to lay off neke and let him trade the way he sees fit. But no, not these self-righteous born-again morons.
Quote from BarbaraM:
Some bunch of guys! Warren Buffett could come on to this forum and he would be insulted as some wanna be moron! We really have the cream of the crop here. Elite trader? Time to rename this forum, perhaps to the Don Rickles Traders Lounge, seems more appropriate.
B
Neke's journal is going to end up the same way that Pennytrader's journal did some years ago...you guys remember him?.. ( http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...6&pagenumber=85 ) I'm sure some of you do, because the same douche bags that destroyed his journal, and led him to leave ET are the same ones that are on this journal as well.
In the mean time the mods do nothing. Keeping good traders here obviously isnt an interest of theirs.
cm out.
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from bwolinsky:
What does it matter to you? This is a public forum. Experienced traders have given him good advice; if you want to find it, you can go back and read the thread. Neke hasn't produced the automation required to remove his emotions and trade better. It appears he's made some attempt at it, but has overridden most of the signals.
At least the results he's posting do not appear fake like other journals on this site, though still unverified by a third party.
Easy. At the first page of this journal, list users people should ignore.
Done.
Quote from cashmoney69:
Neke's journal is going to end up the same way that Pennytrader's journal did some years ago...you guys remember him?..
In the mean time the mods do nothing. Keeping good traders here obviously isnt an interest of theirs.
cm out.
Quote from saliva:
And what the fuck does it matter to you whether neke loses his money or not. This isn't your fucking thread so get the fuck out for once. We're sick and tired of hearing your "Oh I'm such a great trader" shit, especially at the expense of neke.
Enough from me on this thread!
Quote from cashmoney69:
Neke's journal is going to end up the same way that Pennytrader's journal did some years ago...you guys remember him?.. ( http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...6&pagenumber=85 ) I'm sure some of you do, because the same douche bags that destroyed his journal, and led him to leave ET are the same ones that are on this journal as well.
In the mean time the mods do nothing. Keeping good traders here obviously isnt an interest of theirs.
cm out.
Quote from TraderZones:
Well, his "blog" that he redirected to only lasted a month, so...
Re: Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
Quote from neke:
[B]Another year another target. Last year, I set out to Take 103K to 1.2million by Year End 2008. Did not quite pan out, but was able to return 447% at the end of the 50 weeks. Of more interest was the second half (week 26-50), where I started with 144K, and made 412K (286%) before withdrawals. That is a compounded weekly rate of 5.5%. Again, I could not pull off a similar performance in the first half. The target this year assumes a 5% compounded rate for the next 50 weeks.
Hopefully, this year there will be greater commitment to execution discipline. I shall once again go with the expectation of a 40% maximum drawdown. Amount of risk taken will be proportional to the size of buffer (above opening 320K) I have in my account and recent performance, subject to not exceeding the optimal fraction (Last year, the optimal fraction was 61% for options and 156% for stocks - did not use anything close to that in real trading).
Re: Re: Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
Quote from bwolinsky:
To neke's credit, he's about at his maximum drawdown. He'd need to compound about 11% weekly to get to his target. An impressive feat, to be sure. Come on, Neke, you can do it! We'll definitely have to wait and see what happens in the next several months. My bet wouldn't be on a positive year, and certainly nowhere near $3.5 million. 1.45% weekly will get him back to break even by the end of the year when 2% monthly is all private equity asks for.
Re: Re: Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
Quote from bwolinsky:
To neke's credit, he's about at his maximum drawdown. He'd need to compound about 11% weekly to get to his target. An impressive feat, to be sure. Come on, Neke, you can do it! We'll definitely have to wait and see what happens in the next several months. My bet wouldn't be on a positive year, and certainly nowhere near $3.5 million. 1.45% weekly will get him back to break even by the end of the year when 2% monthly is all private equity asks for.
This forum is filled with individuals who assume the role of a Messiah figure. They would go out on their four limbs to "mentor" others even when their advice was never solicited in the first place. When this is challenged, they always become defensive by stating how the OP is down and out in the gutter for the year and their help is absolutely critical for one's salvation. When all is said and done, they would remind you in no uncertain term that this is a "constructive criticism".
Mama, put my guns in the ground
I can't shoot them anymore.
That long black cloud is comin' down
I feel I'm knockin' on heaven's door.
Knock, knock, knockin' on heaven's door
Knock, knock, knockin' on heaven's door
Knock, knock, knockin' on heaven's door
Knock, knock, knockin' on heaven's door
--Bob Dylan
Neke,
On the first page of your journal you mentioned splitting your account. Have you given that another thought now as a possible measure to reduce overall capital risk?
For example 1/3 stays in your original strategy, 1/3 goes to strictly automated trading, and another 1/3 that follows your most conservative strategy possible, etc
This way you can continue your current style of trading that you feel comfortable with and also possibly protect your capital from excessive volatility, and at the same time you can use the performance of your sub accounts to evaluate your approaches.
Just my 2c.
off topic posters
Journal Killers
You should be proud !!! Looks like Neke stopped posting.
In the widely viewed journals there definately should be some moderators deleting off topic posts , (especialy people having an off topic argument) .
This might avoid interesting journals being terminated by their author.
__________________
monee
Re: off topic posters
Quote from monee:
You should be proud !!! Looks like Neke stopped posting.
In the widely viewed journals there definately should be some moderators deleting off topic posts , (especialy people having an off topic argument) .
This might avoid interesting journals being terminated by their author.
missed the post , I stand corrected .
__________________
monee
Neke,
May I ask why you chose to trade options on SPY. This makes little sense, since options are very pricy over time and you could simply use YM if you needed the leverage. Also, at your sizes, it would be wise not to trade single equities:
Look at MTXX, one bad new release out of nowhere and you are in for it big time (especially with large sizes):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MT...id=p52275587445
Quote from BarbaraM:
Neke, Oh Neke! Amaze us with your legendary trading skills! Lay some awesome numbers on us ...
Weekly Update for week 24/50 ended 06/27/2009
More of the same. Down 5K (2%).
Seems like each week, there just has to be that one discretionary trade that messes my week. This time, it was FCX on Wed. What started as an automated alert to short 1200 FCX at 49.08 became a discretionary trade as I averaged down as the stock kept going up. Finally closed all 11000 shares, and came back later to take revenge, buying 8000 shares. Lost 13K on the combined trades. Otherwise the week was spent taking numerous small-sized automated alerts.
Desperately looking for a positive week.
code:
Opening Balance: 225,370 Net loss for the week -5,034 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 220,336 Number of Trades 38 Number of Profitable Trades 19 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 06/27/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -99,728 (Down 31.2%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 220,336 Number of Trades 582 Number of Profitable Trades 357 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE HJQSL 2009-06-25-11-26-36 2009-06-25-15-57-43 8000 68400 74800 6243 FSLR PUT POT 2009-06-26-13-15-31 2009-06-26-14-45-30 4000 367476 370402 2903 LONG --------------------------------------------------------- FCX 2009-06-24-12-19-08 2009-06-24-14-02-29 8000 397936 394097 -3870 LONG FCX 2009-06-24-09-33-21 2009-06-24-11-04-27 11000 554363 545067 -9345 SHORT
Quote from zenith1107:
You need to seek counseling about your issues of assholism and misaligned sexual orientation.
Quote from neke:
code:
Number of Trades 582 Number of Profitable Trades 357
Neke, STOP TRADING You're in a death spiral. Look at your equity chart objectivley and then pull up a stock chart that looks like that. A slow grind down like that usually ends with a fast dive of a cliff where it loses half its value. Remember a chart is a chart. It's summer, the markets sucks anyway, take a couple weeks of to clear your head. Take the 5k you're going to lose next week and go to Aruba and just vege out on the beach with no TV or Newspapers or internet. You've proven you can make money in the market, now show some disipline and take a step back. The market will still be here when you get back. Anyway, thats the best advice I can give, do with it what you will.
PS. To the idiots crapping on this thread, and you know who you are, get a life!
Quote from NQscalper:
PS. To the idiots crapping on this thread, and you know who you are, get a life!
Quote from Millionaire:
You have a 61% win rate, but are still losing money.
You might have scope to take some losses quicker and still win >50% of the time.
Quote from bwolinsky:
+1 for being good advice.
Quote from neke:
Definitely yes. I'm yet to find the time to compute exactly how much, but I believe averaging down has cost much both this year as well as last year. The good overall performance last year obviously masked the amount lost to that bad habit. [/B]
a great, honest thread!
here's some audio stuff that i sometimes use, when dealing with difficult markets, or trying to create alpha in a more controlled way:
arikiev.com/kiev_podcast.htm
it often works for me, people may want to check it out. before you dismiss this kind of stuff, just check it out, several podcasts, it has a good impact.
i think there must be a hidden layer of meaning in some of the podcasts, which programs our subconscious for success . . .
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 24/50 ended 06/27/2009
More of the same. Down 5K (2%).
Seems like each week, there just has to be that one discretionary trade that messes my week. This time, it was FCX on Wed. What started as an automated alert to short 1200 FCX at 49.08 became a discretionary trade as I averaged down as the stock kept going up. Finally closed all 11000 shares, and came back later to take revenge, buying 8000 shares. Lost 13K on the combined trades. Otherwise the week was spent taking numerous small-sized automated alerts.
Desperately looking for a positive week.
code:
Opening Balance: 225,370 Net loss for the week -5,034 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 220,336 Number of Trades 38 Number of Profitable Trades 19 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 06/27/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -99,728 (Down 31.2%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 220,336 Number of Trades 582 Number of Profitable Trades 357 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE HJQSL 2009-06-25-11-26-36 2009-06-25-15-57-43 8000 68400 74800 6243 FSLR PUT POT 2009-06-26-13-15-31 2009-06-26-14-45-30 4000 367476 370402 2903 LONG --------------------------------------------------------- FCX 2009-06-24-12-19-08 2009-06-24-14-02-29 8000 397936 394097 -3870 LONG FCX 2009-06-24-09-33-21 2009-06-24-11-04-27 11000 554363 545067 -9345 SHORT
Weekly Update for week 25/50 ended 07/04/2009
Moderately positive week, up 1.1K (0.5%).
Very light trading week, cut short by holidays and personal time off. Just a number of automated trades that eked out a little over 1K. Still playing with very small positions in the automated arena.
Should still spend some time this week-end to make the system trade some of the signals being generated (right now the final decision to take the alert and place a trade depends on me. I think I am confident enough in a couple of set-ups to let the system place the order when the conditions are met.)
code:
Opening Balance: 220,336 Net gain for the week 1,132 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 221,468 Number of Trades 14 Number of Profitable Trades 8 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 07/04/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -98,596 (Down 30.8%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 221,468 Number of Trades 596 Number of Profitable Trades 365
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 25/50 ended 07/04/2009
Moderately positive week, up 1.1K (0.5%).
Very light trading week, cut short by holidays and personal time off. Just a number of automated trades that eked out a little over 1K. Still playing with very small positions in the automated arena.
Should still spend some time this week-end to make the system trade some of the signals being generated (right now the final decision to take the alert and place a trade depends on me. I think I am confident enough in a couple of set-ups to let the system place the order when the conditions are met.)
code:
Opening Balance: 220,336 Net gain for the week 1,132 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 221,468 Number of Trades 14 Number of Profitable Trades 8 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 07/04/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -98,596 (Down 30.8%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 221,468 Number of Trades 596 Number of Profitable Trades 365
Quote from bwolinsky:
This is one of the earliest mentions of you using complete Automation.
__________________
If you can't beat them join them, he said as he was writing his application to Rotterinvest!
Quote from bwolinsky:
What had you been using for position sizes? 10% of equity? 20k per trade? 100k? Info?
Weekly Update for week 26/50 ended 07/11/2009
Moderately positive week, up 4.2k (2%).
Nothing remarkable on the discretionary front other than Wed when I decided to step in on the end of day rebound after several days of sell-off, making 6K. Marred by a decision to short the rally in RIGL on Thurs,losing 5K. The automated front was fairly OK too, except that I had some wrongful trades on Tuesday: have since fixed the system to avoid a recurrence of that.
Still being very cautious as we head into earnings season.
code:
Opening Balance: 221,468 Net gain for the week 4,206 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 225,674 Number of Trades 23 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 07/11/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -94,390 (Down 29.5%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 225,674 Number of Trades 619 Number of Profitable Trades 376 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SZCGJ 2009-07-08-15-09-19 2009-07-08-15-46-23 30000 47400 54300 6428 SPY CALL -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RIGL 2009-07-09-12-04-58 2009-07-09-15-20-12 14000 182270 177008 -5365 SHORT
Ouch. This has been a painful thread to read through.
Market is going to start a long slide downward after the GS earnings move the SPX up to the 50 DMA.
I'm going to load it short the 915-925 area.
__________________
"How fortunate for leaders that men do not think"
- Adolf Hitler
Not to highjack this thread but I agree with you about the 910-20 level, channel top IMO this lots of resistance and plenty of reasons to go short!
and Neke, atleast you have stopped the red for now. Take it easy.. Always be watching, inspiration even with the draw down! Seen other threads etc.
TT
Quote from JAP:
Ouch. This has been a painful thread to read through.
Market is going to start a long slide downward after the GS earnings move the SPX up to the 50 DMA.
I'm going to load it short the 915-925 area.
This is part of your problem.
Quote from neke:
Right now I am starting off with 30% of account per trade.
Quote from 1flyfisher:
This is part of your problem.
Quote from neke:
How? Are you saying if I have 200K, spending 60K on a stock position for a day-trade is outsized?
Quote from neke:
How? Are you saying if I have 200K, spending 60K on a stock position for a day-trade is outsized?
Quote from inomad:
I don't know what answer you'll get from OP , but I'd say YES. Very much outsized.
And why dont't you take some swing trades also? Your account is big enough to keep some positions overnight and also daytrade.
Just my 2 cents.
__________________
"How fortunate for leaders that men do not think"
- Adolf Hitler
your account is too large. you need withdraw some money from it, or you need split it into several accounts.
one account keep 150k, load some mutual funds or etfs, find good spot and stay there for several months or years
another account is aroun 50k, do day trading, produce some positive cash flow
the remaining is just withdrew, you do not need so much money on the market
Quote from JAP:
Outsized is an understatement...
30% on stocks would be, but not on ETF's. Automation on spy calls and puts is fine.
way too much risk here.
just for stocks
Shooting for 10x return on your money in 1 year is not very realistic either.
Yes, but it's his thread
Might as well go to Vegas and play it on black or red.
Not quite.
Still, I got to give Neke props for putting himself out there and for his honesty.
No problem here
Quote from JAP:
Outsized is an understatement... way too much risk here. Shooting for 10x return on your money in 1 year is not very realistic either. Might as well go to Vegas and play it on black or red.
Quote from neke:
How? Are you saying if I have 200K, spending 60K on a stock position for a day-trade is outsized?
Quote from illiquid:
For an intraday time-frame, you are trading way too big, especially in certain options.
Most people think if they don't hold overnight they can put on a huge position, but that's exactly why those trades usually fail.
PS: Kinda late with this observation, but daytraders usually don't think in terms of % return; it's all about getting green day in, day out. A skilled trader wouldn't need much more capital than what you have to begin with, and be able to bank a 7-figure year while taking out profits each and every month.
Why not just bail on this thread's goal and have a monthly/daily target instead? It's a (mostly) silly trading forum after all, why not get serious about what's important and let the pie in the sky go?
Quote from bwolinsky:
Only in options would that be the case. He's talking about ETF's though, I think, and that's a fine size.
Quote from illiquid:
I'm referring to trades like buying 2k atm puts on FSLR the week of expiration. D'ya think the mm's are gonna let him get away with that stuff?
Quote from NoDoji:
I do not believe Neke ever bought 2000 of any option.
So the rally in AIG is over for now? Glad my puts this morning are making money. Hope it holds!
Quote from neke:
So the rally in AIG is over for now? Glad my puts this morning are making money. Hope it holds!
Quote from neke:
My day is made. Getting out! 300 AIGSN out at 1.45 (bought 0.70), 200 AIGSO out at 1.78, bout 0.99). Not asking for more.
Quote from sheepsucker:
Yo, I hope thats a lot of money.
But still im a little worried. Somehow doesnt sound like emotionless disciplined trading according to plan no matter what. I hope im wrong.
Quote from sheepsucker:
Yo, I hope thats a lot of money.
But still im a little worried. Somehow doesnt sound like emotionless disciplined trading according to plan no matter what. I hope im wrong.
looks like 10k to me. but uhhh his typing is confusing.. could be more. LOL
Quote from sheepsucker:
Yo, I hope thats a lot of money.
But still im a little worried. Somehow doesnt sound like emotionless disciplined trading according to plan no matter what. I hope im wrong.
Weekly Update for week 27/50 ended 07/18/2009
Nice week. Up 46.5K (20%). Hope the bottom is in place.
The week started on a good course on Monday, buying GS 145 calls after the bullish comments from one Meredith Whitney (the market apparently believes her spot-on call on citigroup nearly 2 years ago was due to her extraordinary genius), buying 50 contracts @ 5.5, averaged another 50 @ 4.90, and yet another 50 @ 4.70, closing all later at 6.10 for a net of +16K. Regret not holding on for more. As a hedge against this, bought 300 contracts of AIG 14 PUT about the same time (on the second day of its massive bounce), which I closed for a loss of 7.5K.
Then came good Tuesday. Watched AIG up in pre-market pretending to be set for a third day of rally. Couldn't short in Ameritrade, set a trigger to buy 300 AIG 14 put @ 0.70 if the stock price is above 15.50 after the market opens. Checked after market opened, and saw it had executed, and the stock was still rising. Added 200 AIG 15 PUT @ 0.99. Shortly before 10am the stock started descending, accelerating a few minutes later. Closed AIGSO @ 1.78 netting 15K, and then 10 minutes later closed AIGSN @ 1.45 netting 22K.
Was set to close the week on high note, but then came expiration Friday, and it wasn't good. Got Whipsawed on GOOG options. First bought 50 GOOG 430 PUT @ 4. Closed out at 2, losing 10K, then reversed and bought 80 GOOG 430 CALL @ 2.00, closed out later @ 1.05, losing 8K. The day I learn not to be complacent after a home-run, that is the day my account will start shooting thru the roof.
On the automated front, collected a decent 4k from 8 trades.
code:
Opening Balance: 225,674 Net gain for the week 46,515 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 272,189 Number of Trades 26 Number of Profitable Trades 18 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 07/18/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -47,875 (Down 15%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 272,189 Number of Trades 645 Number of Profitable Trades 394 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE AIGSN 2009-07-14-09-30-06 2009-07-14-10-30-13 30000 20934 43500 22101 AIG PUT GSGI 2009-07-13-09-34-50 2009-07-13-11-11-31 15000 75500 91500 15745 GS CALL AIGSO 2009-07-14-09-35-52 2009-07-14-10-19-01 20000 19800 35600 15485 AIG PUT -------------------------------------------------------------- AIGSN 2009-07-13-09-46-58 2009-07-13-14-25-30 30000 41000 34000 -7486 AIG PUT GOPGF 2009-07-17-11-00-14 2009-07-17-11-43-38 8000 16600 8400 -8341 GOOG CALL GOPSF 2009-07-17-10-04-02 2009-07-17-10-54-09 5000 20000 10000 -10096 GOOG PUT
Good job Neke.
Nice week.....
good luck to us all next week
solid week. great.
Good job this week, neke. Hang in there.
Weekly Update for week 28/50 ended 07/25/2009
Another good. Up 34K (12%). I guess confidence begets confidence
Made a record number of trades for one week (52), as earnings season brought a plethora of automated trades/alerts.
Rode the momentum in the market using stocks and options, the biggest gains being on Thursday and Friday on SPY call options. Made some money also on ISRG calls after its earnings, leaving a bunch on the table. Lost 7K on POT call on Thursday: thought I could just go long anything and make money, but was too late to the party there.
Extremely pleased my automated trades are coming up nicely. Made 12.5k from 25 trades there.
Looking forward to next week.
code:
Opening Balance: 272,189 Net gain for the week 34,158 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 306,347 Number of Trades 52 Number of Profitable Trades 38 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 07/25/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -13,717 (Down 4.3%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 272,189 Number of Trades 697 Number of Profitable Trades 432 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SWGHS 2009-07-23-10-13-53 2009-07-23-15-51-11 20000 44200 55200 10685 SPY CALL SBUX 2009-07-22-10-33-31 2009-07-22-15-20-22 20000 336949 344395 7410 LONG AXVHI 2009-07-23-10-12-31 2009-07-23-10-16-25 5000 60000 67500 7409 ISRG CALL SWGHS 2009-07-24-09-36-16 2009-07-24-13-31-14 30000 73634 81300 7193 SPY CALL --------------------------------------------------------- BIDU 2009-07-20-09-41-14 2009-07-20-10-59-13 2000 657452 653163 -4327 SHORT WFC 2009-07-22-09-31-53 2009-07-22-10-25-47 20000 480800 475714 -5133 SHORT SNDK 2009-07-23-10-30-39 2009-07-23-13-23-29 30000 504442 497728 -6775 SHORT PYPHT 2009-07-23-13-27-22 2009-07-23-15-39-23 10000 43860 37000 -7025 POT CALL
Good work, neke.
You do need to rectify the Net Balance, though.
Quote from neke:
Opening Balance: 320,064
Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -13,717 (Down 4.3%)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance 272,189
Monster comeback Neke, I know how rough on the mindset those DDs can be. Frankly I was skeptical of you and the risk you take but now I can see how you operate. You've found the optimal amount of risk you can stomach. Just be careful not to overstep, it can be devastating to a trading career.
good job neke! seems your system works nice in a bull market. you need to now find a way to hedge your positions in bear markets.
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from cashmoney69:
good job neke! seems your system works nice in a bull market. you need to now find a way to hedge your positions in bear markets.
Quote from neke:
code:
Opening Balance: 272,189 Net gain for the week 34,158 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 306,347 Number of Trades 52 Number of Profitable Trades 38 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 07/25/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -13,717 (Down 4.3%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 272,189 Number of Trades 697 Number of Profitable Trades 432
Quote from cstfx:
Is it just me or is there a problem with the spreadsheet you are using for this dsplay?
Great job neke.
Way to make a powerful comeback, and I see you have more qualiy posters to your thread than not.
That's a big +2!
__________________
...
if he's day trading, then why's he trading on down days if he knows (at least id hope he knows) that his system doesnt work in down markets?
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
Great job neke.
Way to make a powerful comeback, and I see you have more qualiy posters to your thread than not.
That's a big +2!
Way to go Neke! Shoot for the moon. Six figure weekly gains are on the horizon, but what about seven figures, do we dare!
Weekly Update for week 29/50 ended 08/01/2009
Moderately positive week. Up 5.6K (1.8%). Should have been a decent week, but gave back most of that on Friday.
The bias for the week was bullish in the market, making a number of purchases of SPY and SPY options for my discretionary trades. Unfortunately hit a bad patch on Friday. First lost 13K on ill-timed FSLR puts following their earnings; should have made some money holding till end of day. Lost another 6.6K trying to fade the move in WTFC - could easily have been worse if the stock did not retreat at the end of the day.
The week was salvaged by my automated trades: made 12.3K from 31 trades.
Looking forward to next week.
code:
Opening Balance: 306,347 Net gain for the week 5,554 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 311,901 Number of Trades 46 Number of Profitable Trades 27 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 08/01/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) -8,163 (Down 2.6%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 311,901 Number of Trades 743 Number of Profitable Trades 459 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SWGHU 2009-07-30-09-55-54 2009-07-30-10-45-32 20000 46000 52400 6085 SPY CALL BIDU 2009-07-27-09-43-08 2009-07-27-09-59-49 1000 363000 368000 4977 SHORT SPY 2009-07-27-10-59-02 2009-07-27-14-45-16 3000 292350 294600 2228 LONG --------------------------------------------------------------- SWGHU 2009-07-30-13-32-57 2009-07-30-14-20-47 20000 49800 46200 -3915 SPY CALL WTFC 2009-07-31-10-10-53 2009-07-31-15-52-59 21963 574651 568206 -6572 SHORT HJQTK 2009-07-31-09-32-57 2009-07-31-10-44-33 18200 143840 131040 -13104 FSLR PUT
Quote from BarbaraM:
Way to go Neke! Shoot for the moon. Six figure weekly gains are on the horizon, but what about seven figures, do we dare!
__________________
...
I'll state again. And this will be my last and final post on this topic and this journal.
Stick to / refine / then leverage your Automated trading systems.
Discretionary directional trading is a long-term losers game. The volatility is good to get the adrenaline rushing, but it's the quickest path to the poor house.
( Discretionary efficient trade execution based trading is a whole another subject )
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...840#post2437840
05-23-09 02:52 AM
If you lack discipline, AUTOMATION is the holy grail.
The Chart is a classic EW formation down to 200K. Ouch. He's now inside the blow-up danger zone for discretionary traders. On every trade his brain will switch to Revenge trading mode. The solution is simply to step back take a vacation.
Oh, and he seems to break the cardinal rule. Never average down. It works well, but the one time it doesn't work is the one time needed to blow up.
Trade with the trend and average UP. Easier said than done for discretionary traders.
Automation is not the holy grail, discretionary trades are a big part of the equation.
Quote from fkbsuhites:
Discretionary directional trading is a long-term losers game. The volatility is good to get the adrenaline rushing, but it's the quickest path to the poor house.
That was a quick one on +AIGTY (In 3.50 avg, out 4.30), 200 contracts
Now in +SWGHV (300 @ 1.90). Waiting for the rebound in SPY
Quote from neke:
That was a quick one on +AIGTY (In 3.50 avg, out 4.30), 200 contracts
Now in +SWGHV (300 @ 1.90). Waiting for the rebound in SPY
Quote from neke:
Now in +SWGHV (300 @ 1.90). Waiting for the rebound in SPY
Neke, how long have you been trading?
Quote from neke:
Added another 300 contracts @ 1.80
Quote from dealmaker:
Neke, how long have you been trading?
Weekly Update for week 30/50 ended 08/08/2009
Nice week, up 27K (8.7%). Should be more but gave back a lot on Friday.
The bias continues to be bullish with calls on SPY options. The best trade was SPY call on Wed, Bought the pull-back, 200 contracts of SWGHV @ 2.08, added another 200 @ 1.96, and yet another 200 @ 1.84. Closed all later in the day for 2.31, netting 20K. Came again Thur seeking to do the same - 300 @ 1.90, another 300 @ 1.80. Did not quite pan out, closing all at 1.88 for a meagre gain.
The other nice trade was AIG PUT on thursday, after the exuberant open. Bought 200 AIGTY @ 3.50,closing 30 min later @ 4.30, netting 16K. Lots of regret as the PUT hit 6.20 soon after getting out, closing the day at 5.95 (That was 33K left on the table!).
Got complacent on Friday, chasing the rally after initially turning off. Averaged in until I could do no more as the market retreated later in the day. Lost nearly 23K. Need to watch out for this tendency to be complacent after a decent run.
My automated trades was flattish for the week.
Looking forward to next week.
code:
Opening Balance: 311,901 Net gain for the week 27,024 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 338,925 Number of Trades 44 Number of Profitable Trades 26 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 08/08/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 18,861 (Up 5.9%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 338,925 Number of Trades 787 Number of Profitable Trades 485 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SWGHV 2009-08-05-09-57-04 2009-08-05-15-26-00 60000 117600 138600 20068 SPY CALL AIGTY 2009-08-06-09-38-49 2009-08-06-10-06-22 20000 70000 86000 15677 AIG PUT ---------------------------------------------------- HURN 2009-08-03-08-58-23 2009-08-03-10-20-45 3000 41310 35600 -5732 SHORT SWGHW 2009-08-07-11-39-17 2009-08-07-15-48-01 100000 216100 194958 -22682 SPY CALL
Bravo
You're positive for the year now. Keep it up.
Am I reading that correctly???? 531 hits of your account statement???
Neke, it's time you start your own blog.
Weekly Update for week 31/50 ended 08/15/2009
Negative week, down 16K (4.8%). Struggled all week to keep positive, but finally gave way on Friday.
Kept the upward bias on the market, and on individual stocks for the most part. Was whipsawed on Tuesday on FLR. Found it hard to stay away even though I had no conviction which direction it should go. First bought puts, lost 7K and immediately reversed and bought calls, losing 12K.
On Thursday made 18K buying the market on dips (3 X 200 contracts) and closing later in the day. Tried to do the same on Friday with hard luck. Again bought 200 contacts at 2.26, 2.10 and 1.91 as the market sold off in the morning. Sold by noon when it seemed the market was destined for a continued sell-off. Missed the late end-of-day rebound: should have recovered all that and more holding to the close.
My automated trades was deeply negative for the week (lost about 10K).
code:
Opening Balance: 338,925 Net loss for the week -16,204 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 322,721 Number of Trades 39 Number of Profitable Trades 24 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 08/15/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 2,657 (Up 0.8%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 322,721 Number of Trades 826 Number of Profitable Trades 509 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SWGHU 2009-08-13-09-37-01 2009-08-13-10-50-13 60000 147020 165600 17648 SPY CALL TOL 2009-08-12-09-42-23 2009-08-12-14-18-23 20000 456988 468070 11014 LONG PNETJ 2009-08-11-10-38-26 2009-08-11-11-52-49 20000 66000 74000 7670 PCLN PUT --------------------------------------------------- FLRTK 2009-08-11-10-05-29 2009-08-11-10-15-21 20000 36000 29000 -7315 FLR PUT FLRHK 2009-08-11-10-24-04 2009-08-11-10-37-31 20000 41000 29000 -12315 FLR CALL SWGHU 2009-08-14-09-58-19 2009-08-14-12-05-58 60000 125400 108000 -18331 SPY CALL
Neke, fantastic recovery from the drawdown. You amaze me with your resilience.
The loss this week is well within the risk parameters of an account your size.
Have a great weekend, and a very profitable next week.
Quote from NoDoji:
Neke, fantastic recovery from the drawdown. You amaze me with your resilience.
The loss this week is well within the risk parameters of an account your size.
Have a great weekend, and a very profitable next week.
__________________
"How fortunate for leaders that men do not think"
- Adolf Hitler
Quote from NoDoji:
Neke, fantastic recovery from the drawdown. You amaze me with your resilience.
The loss this week is well within the risk parameters of an account your size.
Have a great weekend, and a very profitable next week.
Quote from neke:
Thanks for saying so. I think there is a huddle around the 365K level that I need to cross. I hit that intra-day sometime last week (ended 8/7) and backed down. I will have to ensure there is nothing psychological that is holding back break-out to new highs.
Quote from JAP:
I agree, but it's HIGHLY unlikely that he'll even be over 400K by the end of 2009, let alone 3.5 million.
Quote from NoDoji:
JAP, last year Neke spent half the year dealing with serious drawdowns and stagnation. He then proceeded to MORE than quintuple his $103K account to end the year at well over $500K.
Once a trader masters mental toughness, s/he has the greatest edge of all. The Nekes and Robert Weinsteins among us place their journeys in the public eye and though they may spark cynicism in you, they spark inspiration in a lot of us.
Every day brand new, every trade brand new; expect the unexpected.
Quote from neke:
I think there is a hurdle around the 365K level that I need to cross. I hit that intra-day sometime last week (ended 8/7) and backed down. I will have to ensure there is nothing psychological that is holding back break-out to new highs.
what kind of leverage do you have? otherwise it is impossible to make 1000% trading stocks.
Quote from Math_Wiz:
How do you go about ensuring this? What is your first step?
+-*/ Math_Wiz
Weekly Update for week 32/50 ended 08/22/2009
Nice week, up 45K (14%). Glad to be challenging the previous highs once again.
The bias continue to be towards the bullish side for stocks and the market. In spite of the sell-off on Monday the action of the market the rest of the week showed that buying on the dip/pull-back remains the way to go until the tide changes. This is trend-trading to me: find what is currently in vogue in the market, play it until it no more works, then scale back (cut your loss) and look for something else. My bad performance in Mar-June was primarily because of overplaying the bearish mode even when it was clear the market was on a strong rally.
Monday, went contrarian and bought the weakness in LOW amd on SPY (option). Overstayed in both and went from a good positive to down 7K.
Tuesday, Made up the loss of the prior day being long HD and TGT calls - exited way too early on the TGT call, but still managed to make 9K on both.
Wed, started losing 6K on HPQ put initiated without due diligence. However, seeing the strength in the stock, read the earnings release and was pissed of at myself for buying put after what was essentially a decent report. Went long (calls) in HPQ and the market. made 13K on HPQ and 11K on the SPY call.
Started Thu losing 13K shorting GME: shorted 10K shares pre-market, added extra as the stock climbed. Covered @ 23.88 avg, before the stock went down. Should have at least broken even. Then caught a little of the momentum on AIG (Bought 5000 shares @ 31.20 on the break-out, closed @ 32.70 three minutes later as the stock eventually went to 35 - too early as always - just not confident holding that stock). caught the momentum on GOOG later in the day with 200 GOPHL that I closed for a 14K gain.
Did not trade on friday. Taking some time off for the family.
code:
Opening Balance: 322,721 Net loss for the week 45,215 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 367,936 Number of Trades 26 Number of Profitable Trades 19 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 08/22/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 47,872 (Up 15%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 367,936 Number of Trades 826 Number of Profitable Trades 509 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE GOPHL 2009-08-20-13-49-54 2009-08-20-14-02-30 20000 56000 70000 13684 GOOG CALL HPQHV 2009-08-19-10-22-44 2009-08-19-11-55-59 40000 40000 54000 13371 HPQ CALL SWGHS 2009-08-19-11-28-49 2009-08-19-11-52-43 33900 79970 91530 11028 SPY CALL AIG 2009-08-20-10-37-51 2009-08-20-10-40-49 5000 155900 163500 7582 LONG TGTHP 2009-08-18-09-44-51 2009-08-18-10-10-14 40000 68000 74000 5377 TGT CALL --------------------------------------------------------- SWGHS 2009-08-17-11-05-13 2009-08-17-15-42-17 20000 41800 40000 -2115 SPY CALL SWGTY 2009-08-20-10-34-15 2009-08-20-14-09-38 40000 89600 88010 -2227 SPY PUT LOW 2009-08-17-09-31-21 2009-08-17-15-56-41 30000 617435 612000 -5493 LONG HPQTR 2009-08-19-09-34-26 2009-08-19-09-56-53 30000 36000 30000 -6465 HPQ PUT GME 2009-08-20-09-28-10 2009-08-20-09-59-39 30000 716315 703450 -12968 SHORT
Nice work Neke!
__________________
sophiekay
Nice going neke. Glad to see you are up over 100k in less than a month. Enjoy the time with your family.
Question concerning your recent trading style, I notice you are relying on options more and more. When you started this year's journal, your emphasis was not nearly so much in option trading. Is this newer strategy because it gives a low risk (cost of the premium) high reward ratio? Just curious.
Neke how many of the call options GOPHL did you purchase? 200?
TT
Nice work, WTG.
Why does it say, "net LOSS for the week" under opening balance.
Quote from ang_99:
Nice work, WTG.
Why does it say, "net LOSS for the week" under opening balance.
Quote from trading_time:
Neke how many of the call options GOPHL did you purchase? 200?
TT
Congrats on the big comeback bro! Let's bust through those highs this week! I'm pulling for you.
__________________
Think of adversity as that tiny piece of sand that gets trapped in the oyster's shell. Although it's a pain in the oyster's arse, he eventually makes a pearl out of it.
Quote from cstfx:
Nice going neke. Glad to see you are up over 100k in less than a month. Enjoy the time with your family.
Question concerning your recent trading style, I notice you are relying on options more and more. When you started this year's journal, your emphasis was not nearly so much in option trading. Is this newer strategy because it gives a low risk (cost of the premium) high reward ratio? Just curious.
Quote from neke:
Yes 200 contracts
I have seeing your posts for years since your balance below 100K, nice work, glad to see you are back on track again. Wish all the best!
Quote from trading_time:
How did you go about getting this order filled, if I may ask.. And how long did the filling process take. Was it all in all out. Or did you enter in segments like you do with a lot of your trades?
Thanks..
neke can you discuss what type of options you trade..itm, otm, ?.. the strategies as well?...are most of these covered calls? as your buying the options along with owning the stock?
how long do you hold on to these option trades?...hrs..days?
I'm trying to trade options now. I just opened an account with TOS.
I actually took my first option trade a few days ago.
10 june 8 citi calls at .11 per contract.
if you dont want to say in the thread, could you PM me instead?
thanks
- Nate.
side note --> I dont have much capital in my account..just shy of 10k, so being able to trade options successfully would REALLY help.
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from cashmoney69:
neke can you discuss what type of options you trade..itm, otm, ?.. the strategies as well?...are most of these covered calls? as your buying the options along with owning the stock?
how long do you hold on to these option trades?...hrs..days?
I'm trying to trade options now. I just opened an account with TOS.
I actually took my first option trade a few days ago.
10 june 8 citi calls at .11 per contract.
if you dont want to say in the thread, could you PM me instead?
thanks
- Nate.
side note --> I dont have much capital in my account..just shy of 10k, so being able to trade options successfully would REALLY help.
Solid performance for 4 days trade. Just imagine what a non trader would think of making 45k in four days.
400k is the magic number!
Quote from bwolinsky:
I don't think going to the most juiced derivative you can possibly trade is going to help you learn. It's unlikely that you'll trade these options successfully, and it sounds like you bought deep otm calls, which will most likely expire worthless.
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from neke:
Net Balance: 367,936
Nice journal, Neke. Just wondering, have you looked at how much money you spent on commission?
Quote from cashmoney69:
neke can you discuss what type of options you trade..itm, otm, ?.. the strategies as well?...are most of these covered calls? as your buying the options along with owning the stock?
how long do you hold on to these option trades?...hrs..days?
I'm trying to trade options now. I just opened an account with TOS.
I actually took my first option trade a few days ago.
10 june 8 citi calls at .11 per contract.
if you dont want to say in the thread, could you PM me instead?
thanks
- Nate.
side note --> I dont have much capital in my account..just shy of 10k, so being able to trade options successfully would REALLY help.
Quote from novel20:
Nice journal, Neke. Just wondering, have you looked at how much money you spent on commission?
i sold my c calls, made 50 in a couple days.
now I got 1 SEPT VLO 16 call. break even is 19.42 and price right now is 19.35...i think we can go + 5 cents in the next three weeks.
Is this more like a trade you would take?
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from neke:
So far this year 73K. Bigger than my net gains. But I hope it changes soon.
Quote from cstfx:
So the numbers posted weekly are net of the commissions? Or just net margin interest?
Just wondering which broker your using? GL
Now loaded on AIG puts (avg IKGUX price 5.70)
Quote from neke:
Now loaded on AIG puts (avg IKGUX price 5.70)
Quote from neke:
Exited half position @ 7.50. Holding the rest for more!
Quote from neke:
Exited the rest at 8.00. Too fast!
Quote from arizonadreamer:
How many contracts?
Quote from neke:
300 contracts (100 @ 5.60, 100 @ 5.80, 100 @ 6.20 entries). Bad move in DELL removed somewhat from my joy for the day.
Neke, good trade. Now call it a day. I hope these numbers are ADDED to a good week.
Just curious, but how much slippage do you get on sizes like that?
Weekly Update for week 33/50 ended 08/29/2009
Another nice week, up 64K (17.3%). Delighted to be on a new high. Finally some buffer starting to build up.
The emphasis continues to be bullish on the market, buying on dips. The market was basically flat for the week, so could easily have profited shorting (buying puts) on rallies as well. Buying strength after earnings however proved horrible on COCO and DELL this week.
The star trade was on AIG puts on Friday. On thursday saw the rally, and tried fading, bought 100 IKGUS (SEP 45 PUT) @ 6.5, put in a limit order for another 100 @ 5.5 and went away. When I came back the order had filled as AIG went to 50 and came back down below 47. Could have exited for a little gain, but held on too long as the stock made another push higher. Exited @ 5.55, losing 9K. Made another attempt at a quick one later in the day, again losing 4K. Should have left it alone. Then Friday the stock took off again in the morning. Felt it was now very ripe for a pull-back, buying 100 IKGUX (50 Put) @ 5.80, another 100 @ 5.60. Waited and saw the stock attempt a comeback about 9.46, added another 100 @ 6.20. Watched as the stock paused at 54 and remained there while the market sold off: it was clear a "strong hand" was propping it up. Was determined to sit it out and see how long the hand could hold it. Didn't take too long as the sell off began shortly before 11.30am. Exited 150 @ 7.50 and the remaining 150 @ 8.00 some minutes later. Net 56K. The joy was punctuated by lousy trading on DELL (DLYIC). Waited for the market to open to load up on the call. Unfortunately it shot up high at open, and instead of shying away decided to buy 200 contracts @ 2.03. Kept adding 200 contracts as the stock came down, total 1200 cars, until a buzzer rang in my head -- TOO MUCH LEVERAGE. Immediately exited 400 contract almost at the price the last ones were bought. Waited some more minutes, and the stock showed no signs of life: decide to exit all, and suffer the 26K loss. Good decision as I could have suffered severely.
The other great trades were SPY calls buying on pull-backs Wed, Thur and Fri.
code:
Opening Balance: 367,936 Net gain for the week 63,508 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 431,444 Number of Trades 25 Number of Profitable Trades 19 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 08/29/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 111,380 (Up 34.8%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 431,444 Number of Trades 877 Number of Profitable Trades 547 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE IKGUX 2009-08-28-09-34-57 2009-08-28-11-56-03 30000 175855 232500 56214 AIG PUT SWGIX 2009-08-27-09-53-05 2009-08-27-13-36-17 40000 91000 106800 15256 SPY CALL SWGIX 2009-08-28-12-22-30 2009-08-28-15-28-12 40000 102800 113200 9856 SPY CALL SWGIX 2009-08-26-11-32-38 2009-08-26-15-53-23 40000 106800 114800 7416 SPY CALL -------------------------------------------------- IKGUS 2009-08-27-15-29-09 2009-08-27-15-41-14 20000 103435 100000 -3712 AIG PUT IKGUS 2009-08-27-11-16-46 2009-08-27-14-05-30 20000 120000 111000 -9284 AIG PUT COCO 2009-08-25-09-39-43 2009-08-25-11-31-21 40000 772077 760099 -12152 LONG DLYIC 2009-08-28-09-33-34 2009-08-28-11-18-50 120000 196701 171905 -26423 DELL CALL
Quote from NoDoji:
Those second tests of resistance can trigger the biggest breakouts.
Low 200's was a major psychological pivot. You're approaching another major pivot at 450K. A wrong move and your back to your opening balance.
Neke you are like a trading gladiator. Some become heroes. Others get their heads chopped off.
Outstanding neke. Love to see your fortitude. That's your biggest edge IMO. You will never go broke because you can't be broken, are innovative, and adaptable. Stay smart and profitable.
Wilt
Awesome job neke. Wife must be proud! .
Someones getting laid tonight
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
nice work
nice work, neke.
nice job Neke, I thought I was brave throwing around 20 lots in aig. Unreal volatility in this stock, good trading.
Neke, sorry you've probably been asked this a million times but what % of your gains is from option trades?
Quote from DT3:
Just wondering which broker your using? GL
Quote from NoDoji:
Long Neke - 1000 contracts
Quote from ang_99:
Neke, sorry you've probably been asked this a million times but what % of your gains is from option trades?
Quote from neke:
TD Ameritrade
Quote from DT3:
Any reason why you don't switch to option house where they charge a flat 9.95 per trade no mater how many contracts you trade. Could save you a ton of money
Obviously, some that trades your size, should be able to get a better deal.
I saw this by googling for cheapest option broker
Options Broker
www.InteractiveBrokers.com Options Brokered As Low As $0.15/Contract + Exchange Fees.
If this helps you out, please feel free to re-pay the favor....
Yea but there is a catch that commission only applies to SPY options.
Quote from DT3:
Any reason why you don't switch to option house where they charge a flat 9.95 per trade no mater how many contracts you trade. Could save you a ton of money
Really? I didn't see that anywhere in the fine print. Obv that sucks if true, but the way they are advertising it they make it seem like its on all options.
Quote from DT3:
Really? I didn't see that anywhere in the fine print. Obv that sucks if true, but the way they are advertising it they make it seem like its on all options.
Swinging a big stick I c, nice trades.
Weekly Update for week 34/50 ended 09/05/2009
Painful and turbulent week, down 67K. Lost all of last week's gain, and some.
The disaster started on Tues. Bought SPY calls as the market went down, another attempt at buy on pull-back. Ended disastrously with a loss of 32K wiping out my earlier gain on a put on CME the same day. Set of a chain of frenzied action which only served to deepen the loss. Went long AIG as it sold off, closed for a loss of 24K, turned round and bought puts on the same, closed it for a loss of 20K. Came later in the day trying to call a bottom on the sell off with SPY calls. Lost 13K once again. The rest of the week fared no better, as excessive leverage on FCX calls ensured I booked a loss at the worst time before the stock rebounded: should have finished with a gain. Ditto IAG stock.
Hope I can forget the week, and move forward.
code:
Opening Balance: 431,444 Net loss for the week -67,078 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 364,366 Number of Trades 32 Number of Profitable Trades 18 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 09/05/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 44,302 (Up 13.8%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 364,366 Number of Trades 909 Number of Profitable Trades 565 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE CMEUU 2009-09-01-10-03-00 2009-09-01-10-54-54 12200 107680 136665 28802 CME PUT AMED 2009-09-03-09-41-38 2009-09-03-09-55-35 6193 195167 206819 11619 LONG ------------------------------------------------------- SWGIW 2009-09-01-13-44-07 2009-09-01-15-50-43 100000 184000 172000 -13318 SPY CALL IAG 2009-09-03-12-54-40 2009-09-03-15-48-11 49748 718806 699272 -19679 SHORT IKGUJ 2009-09-01-12-31-50 2009-09-01-13-46-32 30000 141000 120900 -20528 AIG PUT FCXIM 2009-09-03-09-30-33 2009-09-03-10-47-00 80000 162833 141600 -22312 FCX CALL AIG 2009-09-01-10-48-46 2009-09-01-12-29-21 8000 316989 292612 -24413 LONG SWGIW 2009-09-01-11-00-57 2009-09-01-12-41-10 100000 217800 186675 -32472 SPY CALL
Dispite the losses, you have what it takes to make it as a trader. You had a losing trade but weren't afraid to get back in.
question to you sir. Did you follow your system on EVERY trade?..if so don't worry about this week. you'll come back.
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Blow-off top? Lol, just hatin'
neke,
are you certain that it is worth putting your money in single stocks (even if it only intra-day)? Look at what happened to MTXX!
have you considered the other commodities such as corn, OJ, etc?
Quote from cashmoney69:
Dispite the losses, you have what it takes to make it as a trader. You had a losing trade but weren't afraid to get back in.
question to you sir. Did you follow your system on EVERY trade?..if so don't worry about this week. you'll come back.
Hmmm. What can I add that's useful that I haven't said already? Nothing. Oh my gosh, you had a losing week! The sky is falling, time to question whether one should even trade! ... Is water really wet? Oh well, you had a negative week. Happens. Try to forget about it. Try to enjoy the weekend. Despite these imperfections, your account balance marches inexorably upwards.
Wilt
The guy is attempting to increase his account 10 fold,and you are commenting on his volatility??
If he is not 100% scar tissue at year end,he deserves "The Trading Medal of Honor"...
Give credit where credit is due...
Quote from bwolinsky:
Dispite (lol) the losses, it's not really hit Neke that he has no edge in the Spy calls or puts. Mostly he's recently had big wins in AIG, followed by big losses, which just accents the fact that he didn't know what he was doing with the calls in the first place.
Still up, but with way too much volatility.
Hi Neke,
This comment sticks out to me:
"Set of a chain of frenzied action which only served to deepen the loss."
You went on tilt it seems. Nothing wrong with getting frustrated every once in while, as long as it doesn't reinforce bad habits per taking poor trades that "work out" by luck or poor R/R management.
That urge to "frenzy" is one of the most difficult to control and I'm worried you're pushing your will power/discipline to its limits. This is the most difficult part of discretionary trading IMO. Handling the market's tendency to consistently push you towards that breaking point - and - not breaking... i.e. just walking away for a while.
I guess I'm not really saying anything new here since you're willing to deal with such swings, but, if your size is causing you to get to that frenzy point, maybe your're pushing too much size.
Mike
Quote from taowave:
The guy is attempting to increase his account 10 fold,and you are commenting on his volatility??
If he is not 100% scar tissue at year end,he deserves "The Trading Medal of Honor"...
Give credit where credit is due...
Quote from neke:
Opening Balance: 431,444
Net loss for the week -67,078
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance: 364,366
What vol did you pay for the calls??
I hear Neiderhoffer was a massive seller..
Quote from NoDoji:
Neke, you've dipped down to previous resistance. Now it's important that previous resistance becomes new support; this sets up the rally to a new high.
Don't chase trades, let the setup confirm, and no revenge trades. (I can give advice because I'm long 1000 NEKE Dec 975K calls)
Quote from taowave:
The guy is attempting to increase his account 10 fold,and you are commenting on his volatility??
If he is not 100% scar tissue at year end,he deserves "The Trading Medal of Honor"...
Give credit where credit is due...
Gotta say this is one hell of a thread! Just signed up and have taken the time the read this whole thing, very educational to say the least.
This is my first year live trading so I have tons to learn. Surprising I am up 78% since Feb, which for a newbie is quite an accomplishment from what I hear. This thread has definitely educated me in one respect, how not to trade.
I wish you luck Neke in your future trading, but it is obvious you are a gambler, not a trader. Now I can see how traders blow up, it is very sad. Hope you pull yourself out of this predicament.
Quote from Mike805:
Hi Neke,
You went on tilt it seems. Nothing wrong with getting frustrated every once in while, as long as it doesn't reinforce bad habits per taking poor trades that "work out" by luck or poor R/R management.
Quote from gladtobehere:
it is obvious you are a gambler, not a trader.
Quote from gladtobehere:
Gotta say this is one hell of a thread! Just signed up and have taken the time the read this whole thing, very educational to say the least.
This is my first year live trading so I have tons to learn. Surprising I am up 78% since Feb, which for a newbie is quite an accomplishment from what I hear. This thread has definitely educated me in one respect, how not to trade.
I wish you luck Neke in your future trading, but it is obvious you are a gambler, not a trader. Now I can see how traders blow up, it is very sad. Hope you pull yourself out of this predicament.
Quote from acerbits:
every decision in life is a gamble. reward involves risk, some of us chose to embrace that fact. It's just about how much your willing to lose and your ability to stick to that no matter what.
I calculated that he had only a 15% recent draw down which is fine related to his goal of going for a 300% profit. The higher % of profit you go for, the greater the draw down, you are going to have.
Also, he noted the problems with the recent trades and took steps to solve them.
Unless you run a hedge or mutual fund then you are going to be taking risks with your own money and need accept that you will have losing trades and have draw downs.
Quote from gkishot:
$300,000 of your capital? Is it how much you are willing to lose? If so then good for you. What if you lost it in a week? Would it be fun?
neke, do u use trendlines?
[i]Quote from
The second area for improvement is my inability to hang on to winners longer. Had I held to the CME puts to the end of day (Tue), I might have been break-even for the week. Maximum holding time frame should be determined at time of initial entry, and I should be willing to let the winners run till then when I am right: that is going to be tough. [/B]
Do you like baseball? Treat each day as an inning, 3 losses and its over force yourself to wait until the next day.
And always have stop limits on your trades, based on the risk/reward ratio of each. Create a $ scale for your trades, small gains are singles, medium gains doubles etc. And as someone said aim for the fences every once in a while, a couple of home runs each week will do... Learn to use momentum and trendlines to read when the ball is heading out the park..... And secure it with a limit..... Sometimes youll be able to reach nirvana (a grand slam secured with a stop loss)
j
Quote from Mike805:
....but, if your size is causing you to get to that frenzy point, maybe your're pushing too much size.
Mike
Quote from neke:
I guess you too are a gambler with lesser risk parameters.
I've never played the lottery, and will not, because I believe the statistics do not line up in my favour. I do this (trading) believing I have an edge and statistics of probability lines up in my favour. Sure I do not execute perfectly some of the times - glad for those that have been trading for long who have never deviated from a plan of execution.
Weekly Update for week 35/50 ended 09/12/2009
Slow week, up 16K (4.4%). Not a lot happened in the holiday-shortened week as I was away from the system most of the time.
A nice collection of single hits (11 gains out of 13 trades) was marred by a set-back on BIDU on Thursday. For the most part was fading the excess moves in select stocks using put options, and that worked fine until I was dazed by BIDU on thursday, as the stock kept climbing higher and higher to the close, blasting through its 52-week high. The strength in the market is incredible; there wasn't even a meaningful pull-back to buy into.
Looking forward to next week.
code:
Opening Balance: 364,366 Net gain for the week 16,495 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 380,861 Number of Trades 13 Number of Profitable Trades 11 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 09/12/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 60,797 (Up 19%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 380,861 Number of Trades 922 Number of Profitable Trades 576 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE FHZUN 2009-09-08-09-31-55 2009-09-08-09-42-54 40000 128000 144000 15455 FCX PUT BPJUL 2009-09-09-09-52-23 2009-09-09-14-11-41 20000 177500 190000 12207 BIDU PUT ---------------------------------------------------- BPJUL 2009-09-10-10-13-22 2009-09-10-15-54-28 35000 217000 182250 -35245 BIDU PUT
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 35/50 ended 09/12/2009
Slow week, up 16K (4.4%). Not a lot happened in the holiday-shortened week as I was away from the system most of the time.
A nice collection of single hits (11 gains out of 13 trades) was marred by a set-back on BIDU on Thursday. For the most part was fading the excess moves in select stocks using put options, and that worked fine until I was dazed by BIDU on thursday, as the stock kept climbing higher and higher to the close, blasting through its 52-week high. The strength in the market is incredible; there wasn't even a meaningful pull-back to buy into.
Looking forward to next week.
Weekly Update for week 36/50 ended 09/19/2009
Frenetic but ugly week, down 16K (4.3%). Lots of big moves, tried to end week positive, but it was not to be.
The big losers were puts on FSLR on Monday, going in with the early weakness in the stock. Came again two days later when I thought it was due for another leg down. Missed it completely. Fortunately made up for these gaffers with calls on AMZN, AAPL and SPY, until friday. Got way ahead of myself on what was supposed to be a 50 contract trade on GOOG call. Ended up with 300 contracts on expiration day, and had -55K to show for it.
Will be looking at why I failed to implement my sizing strategy over the week-end.
code:
Opening Balance: 380,861 Net loss for the week -16,468 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 364,393 Number of Trades 25 Number of Profitable Trades 16 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 09/19/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 44,329 (Up 14%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 364,393 Number of Trades 947 Number of Profitable Trades 592 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE QZNIQ 2009-09-16-12-36-45 2009-09-16-15-36-59 23000 91600 120750 28827 AMZN CALL APVIO 2009-09-16-11-55-54 2009-09-16-15-35-38 30000 199796 218890 18663 AAPL CALL SWGIX 2009-09-14-09-55-42 2009-09-14-10-43-57 40000 98980 114000 14469 SPY CALL -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QHBUG 2009-09-14-10-49-40 2009-09-14-14-50-25 30000 155460 135000 -20874 FSLR PUT QHBUI 2009-09-16-09-30-28 2009-09-16-13-37-48 40000 121000 86000 -35564 FSLR PUT GOPIK 2009-09-18-09-30-19 2009-09-18-12-56-42 30000 180970 126000 -55398 GOOG CALL
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 36/50 ended 09/19/2009
Frenetic but ugly week, down 16K (4.3%). Lots of big moves, tried to end week positive, but it was not to be.
The big losers were puts on FSLR on Monday, going in with the early weakness in the stock. Came again two days later when I thought it was due for another leg down. Missed it completely. Fortunately made up for these gaffers with calls on AMZN, AAPL and SPY, until friday. Got way ahead of myself on what was supposed to be a 50 contract trade on GOOG call. Ended up with 300 contracts on expiration day, and had -55K to show for it.
Will be looking at why I failed to implement my sizing strategy over the week-end.
code:
Opening Balance: 380,861 Net loss for the week -16,468 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 364,393 Number of Trades 25 Number of Profitable Trades 16 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 09/19/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 44,329 (Up 14%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 364,393 Number of Trades 947 Number of Profitable Trades 592 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE QZNIQ 2009-09-16-12-36-45 2009-09-16-15-36-59 23000 91600 120750 28827 AMZN CALL APVIO 2009-09-16-11-55-54 2009-09-16-15-35-38 30000 199796 218890 18663 AAPL CALL SWGIX 2009-09-14-09-55-42 2009-09-14-10-43-57 40000 98980 114000 14469 SPY CALL -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QHBUG 2009-09-14-10-49-40 2009-09-14-14-50-25 30000 155460 135000 -20874 FSLR PUT QHBUI 2009-09-16-09-30-28 2009-09-16-13-37-48 40000 121000 86000 -35564 FSLR PUT GOPIK 2009-09-18-09-30-19 2009-09-18-12-56-42 30000 180970 126000 -55398 GOOG CALL
Quote from neke:
Got way ahead of myself on what was supposed to be a 50 contract trade on GOOG call. Ended up with 300 contracts on expiration day, and had -55K to show for it.
Quote from NoDoji:
Front month options on expiration Friday should be sold, not bought, because the decay becomes exponential.
No. There is not much time value left on expiration day. It is a pure directional play with huge leverage. You will never make big wins or losses that fast like neke.
Quote from NoDoji:
Front month options on expiration Friday should be sold, not bought, because the decay becomes exponential.
Quote from novel20:
No. There is not much time value left on expiration day. It is a pure directional play with huge leverage. You will never make big wins or losses that fast like neke.
Quote from bwolinsky:
God damn....that last GOOG call was a $55k loss in 3 and a half hours....I'm at a loss for words. I agree with your direction, but I think you pushed way too hard. Obviously it would have went lower, but if the position size wasn't so large, you probably could have made that a profitable week.
So you bought at 9:30:19 today at a goog price of 495.5145 is the tick I have for that, and sold at 12:56:42 and I have a price of 494.1012. You lost $1.4133 on a $495.5145, or about 0.28522% loss, but on your account, you lost $55,398 from what I presume was about $436,259 or a percentage loss of 12.69842%.
So your leverage was exactly .1269842/.0028522=44.5214922.
Neke, this is an insane amount of leverage. I don't even think I've ever heard a professional surviving for long at that level. I would say you need to back off a bit. You've talked about trying to hit singles with the occasional home run, but you should think about starting every trade as a single, then you wouldn't run into the leverage issue.
15% here, 15% there. No worries!
HI NEKE
when the tide goes out we find out whose been swimming naked
WAREN BUFFET
CHEERS
JOHN
i think you did pretty well last week. The last GOOG call could go either way, but unfortunately the luck was not on your side. You could make 100K on that trade.
Yea he can keep making these 100k trades until there is no more equity to do it with. Proper risk management is lacking from neke's strategy. What the point of making big $ one week if you give it back next week?
Quote from freewilly:
i think you did pretty well last week. The last GOOG call could go either way, but unfortunately the luck was not on your side. You could make 100K on that trade.
Quote from kxvid:
Yea he can keep making these 100k trades until there is no more equity to do it with. Proper risk management is lacking from neke's strategy. What the point of making big $ one week if you give it back next week?
Quote from short&naked:
How dare you question neke the master!
Funny thing is the haters on this thread are still negative for the year. Worry about yourselves first, LOL.
Quote from neke:
That trade started as a 50 contract trade. Had I adhered to my policy, I should not have averaged in for a total of more than 100 contracts. Work still to be done on compliance with rules.
Quote from kxvid:
Yea he can keep making these 100k trades until there is no more equity to do it with. Proper risk management is lacking from neke's strategy. What the point of making big $ one week if you give it back next week?
Weekly Update for week 37/50 ended 09/26/2009
Nice week, up 27.5K (7.5%). Decent win rate (13 of 19), managed to avoid some potential disasters.
Biggest gainer was RIMM short position (3000 shares @ 75.10) initiated after their earnings release on Thurs. Closed pre-market for a 14K gain. On the other end was the call on SPY on thurs, buying on the dip, that cost 11K. Then came Friday, and I got quite a scare in MA. Bought 4000 shares (2000 @ 210.30, 2000 @ 209.50) with the stock trading normal volume. No sooner had I initiated my position than the stock plunged precipitously on terrific volume. Searched frantically for news as my position soured, found none, and bought 154 OCT 210 calls @ 5.45 avg. The stock rebounded to about 208, and I exited both, losing 7K on the stock, gaining 10K on the option, to my relief. Glad I did not hold to the close of trading.
Looking forward to next week.
code:
Opening Balance: 364,393 Net gain for the week 27,505 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 391,898 Number of Trades 19 Number of Profitable Trades 13 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 09/26/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 71,834 (Up 22%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 391,898 Number of Trades 966 Number of Profitable Trades 605 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE RIMM 2009-09-24-16-14-27 2009-09-25-09-20-08 3000 211496 225300 13784 SHORT MALJB 2009-09-25-10-21-46 2009-09-25-10-58-43 15400 83980 93940 9722 MA CALL AMZN 2009-09-21-09-58-16 2009-09-21-11-12-59 5000 443691 450789 7058 LONG ------------------------------------------------------------------ MA 2009-09-25-10-09-13 2009-09-25-10-59-04 4000 839717 832954 -6813 LONG SWGJA 2009-09-24-10-02-35 2009-09-24-14-59-48 80000 198200 188000 -11280 SPY CALL
Quote from neke:
Searched frantically for news as my position soured, found none, and bought 154 OCT 210 calls @ 5.45 avg.
Around 450K is a large psychological barrier ( probably had a large blow up before at that level? )
par down size and control risk till you are above 500K. If you can break 500K, I'll bet good money you'll close above 700K for this year.
Quote from fkbsuhites:
Around 450K is a large psychological barrier ( probably had a large blow up before at that level? )
par down size and control risk till you are above 500K. If you can break 500K, I'll bet good money you'll close above 700K for this year.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 37/50 ended 09/26/2009
Nice week, up 27.5K (7.5%). Decent win rate (13 of 19), managed to avoid some potential disasters.
Not a chance!!!
Weekly Update for week 38/50 ended 10/03/2009
Working late in the office tonight, so will post details tomorrow. But it was a nice week, up 45K (11.6%)
Awesome job! I always told people that you must do things different to get different results from everyone else.
Quote from GOP_trader:
Awesome job! I always told people that you must do things different to get different results from everyone else.
Quote from NoDoji:
Nice trading, Neke. I like that W where previous resistance became support; new highs coming.
Quote from dealmaker:
Not a chance!!!
Weekly Update for week 38/50 ended 10/03/2009
Nice week, up 45K (11.6%). Another decent win rate (16 of 21). Glad to be at a new high.
Started bad on Monday, fading the market early strength with SPY put, thought it was a dead-cat bounce. Didn't know it would finish up 1.90 on thin volume. No surprise it trended lower the rest of the week. Interestngly, the biggest gain was from ETRM on friday. Bought a token 50000 shares @ 0.90 pre-market (just 45K exposure, or 11% of account). Sold intra-day @ 1.24, gaining 17K. Waited for the market to sell of in the early goings, did not get to my limit, so missed a good part of the bounce, but made some money on AAPL call, buying into the strength after the upgrade.
Looking forward to next week.
code:
Opening Balance: 391,898 Net gain for the week 45,266 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 437,164 Number of Trades 21 Number of Profitable Trades 16 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 10/03/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 117,100 (Up 37%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 437,164 Number of Trades 987 Number of Profitable Trades 621 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE ETRM 2009-10-02-08-16-47 2009-10-02-10-29-50 50000 45000 62000 16985 LONG APVJQ 2009-10-02-09-49-17 2009-10-02-14-14-33 20000 86285 97000 10439 AAPL CALL SWGJA 2009-09-30-09-47-56 2009-09-30-12-32-46 40000 84160 94000 9290 SPY CALL CIT 2009-09-30-09-33-25 2009-09-30-09-38-44 50000 61500 69000 7484 LONG RIMM 2009-09-28-15-50-28 2009-09-29-13-38-30 3000 199138 204450 5293 LONG SWGJX 2009-10-02-09-46-59 2009-10-02-14-40-46 40000 99773 104428 4097 SPY CALL RFYJM 2009-09-28-15-40-36 2009-09-30-09-31-39 3000 11100 15240 4087 RIMM CALL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CMG 2009-09-29-10-13-09 2009-09-29-15-21-54 4000 389740 387844 -1962 LONG SWGJZ 2009-10-01-10-07-31 2009-10-01-11-38-30 40000 86000 78400 -8143 SPY CALL SWGVB 2009-09-28-09-45-22 2009-09-28-14-30-23 40000 92920 78800 -14663 SPY PUT
Hey neke,
I know you have been having these journals for a few years now and was wondering is this your main source of income - is this what you do? Or is this something on the side and the 117k you have pocketed so far this year nothing more than "black truffle gravy"?
Curious as to the psychology behind the trading.
Nice job Neke keep losses small.
Quote from neke:
Interestngly, the biggest gain was from ETRM on friday. Bought a token 50000 shares @ 0.90 pre-market (just 45K exposure, or 11% of account). Sold intra-day @ 1.24, gaining 17K.
Quote from cstfx:
Hey neke,
I know you have been having these journals for a few years now and was wondering is this your main source of income - is this what you do? Or is this something on the side and the 117k you have pocketed so far this year nothing more than "black truffle gravy"?
Curious as to the psychology behind the trading.
__________________
Great Minds Think Differently
Quote from pcvix:
neke, did you consider shorting ETRM at all?
Quote from short&naked:
What... take outrageously high risk? In the end the results will be same.
Quote from pcvix:
neke, did you consider shorting ETRM at all? [/QUOTE
[QUOTE]Quote from NoDoji:
If Neke even contemplated shorting a stock that dropped almost 95%, found rapid support in pre-market @ .50 a share and had a max risk of .90 a share at the point he went long, then I'm closing my NEKE Dec $975K call position
Quote from cstfx:
Hey neke,
I know you have been having these journals for a few years now and was wondering is this your main source of income - is this what you do? Or is this something on the side and the 117k you have pocketed so far this year nothing more than "black truffle gravy"?
Curious as to the psychology behind the trading.
Ameritrade wont let you do many things. I found that many loosely traded penny stocks cant be traded through Ameritrade. I tried opening up a position on QTWW using a limit order that wasnt over the ask and also on UXG. They wouldnt let me do it and refused the order.
One time when I tried establishing a position in XIN a representative from their risk control department called me and explained why they were rejecting the order.
My experience with IB is that they will take any order. There are no safeguards with them.
Quote from neke:
You got that NOD. It would be insane to short something down so much already for an intra-day trade (assuming Ameritrade allowed that). The risk-reward wasn't there. I took that small position for the dead-cat bounce, got it, and exited.
Loaded up on FCX puts (FHZVO @2.30). Hope this goes down today!
Quote from neke:
Loaded up on FCX puts (FHZVO @2.30). Hope this goes down today!
Quote from neke:
Out at 2.31 break-even. Do not like the action
Quote from retaildaytrader:
Ameritrade wont let you do many things. I found that many loosely traded penny stocks cant be traded through Ameritrade. I tried opening up a position on QTWW using a limit order that wasnt over the ask and also on UXG. They wouldnt let me do it and refused the order.
One time when I tried establishing a position in XIN a representative from their risk control department called me and explained why they were rejecting the order.
My experience with IB is that they will take any order. There are no safeguards with them.
Quote from pneuma:
For me that's how trading should be, profits come way down the list when it comes to the motivations behind trading.
Quote from atticus:
Great job last week. Hope your luck continues. I like GS short Nov vol neutral to 185 if you're inclined to take a spread.
Quote from kinggyppo:
I noticed them starting roll over add JPM too which has been rolling, Neke trade options with tight spreads makes it less painful when you are wrong. Can't beat spy and qqqq for liquidity.
AAPL is also amazingly liquid. I've been sim trading some AAPL option strategies and it's very easy to manage risk tightly
Quote from NoDoji:
AAPL is also amazingly liquid. I've been sim trading some AAPL option strategies and it's very easy to manage risk tightly
Quote from pneuma:
For me that's how trading should be, profits come way down the list when it comes to the motivations behind trading.
pneuma
Weekly Update for week 39/50 ended 10/10/2009
Very good week, up 98K (22.3%). Good win rate (22 gains out of 31) accelerated by a few outsized bets.
Most significant moves were on Wed and Thurs. Faded the move on BIDU on Wed to the tune of 240 contracts averaged in, expecting the stock to drop after several days run-up, did not quite pan out, got out losing 19K on the option just as GOOG began its upward climb in the afternoon. Jumped on board GOOG with 150 call contracts (more of revenge, seeing I avoided taking that call earlier in the day). Glad it panned out, getting 37K. Then Thurs, saw BIDU once again on the rise, hit it with 200 put contracts @ 8.55 avg, closed it 30 minutes later @ 10.50 on a pull-back on the stock, netting 39K. A few minutes later hit MA with puts (smaller size of exposure), netting 14K. (An attempt at FCX did not work as well).
Had 11 automated trades that yielded 11K. Should be having more of these now that earnings season is upon us.
Finally pleased to have some good buffer with which to press on the accelerator, but I need to be careful and avoid knee-jerk action.
code:
Opening Balance: 437,164 Net gain for the week 97,533 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 534,697 Number of Trades 31 Number of Profitable Trades 22 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 10/10/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 214,633 (Up 67%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 534,697 Number of Trades 1018 Number of Profitable Trades 643 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE BPJVB 2009-10-08-09-48-26 2009-10-08-10-19-28 20000 170790 210400 39324 BIDU PUT GOPJU 2009-10-07-14-41-40 2009-10-07-15-11-39 15000 247340 285000 37395 GOOG CALL MALVB 2009-10-08-10-33-13 2009-10-08-11-03-39 30000 75000 90000 14594 MA PUT GPYVR 2009-10-06-10-01-29 2009-10-06-10-33-38 20000 120250 128382 7848 GS PUT --------------------------------------------- BIDU 2009-10-07-09-37-08 2009-10-07-14-49-17 1000 408966 405660 -3330 SHORT AAI 2009-10-07-09-28-07 2009-10-07-09-54-28 20000 106000 99113 -6904 LONG BPJVT 2009-10-07-09-37-05 2009-10-07-14-52-47 24000 225000 205940 -19419 BIDU PUT
Damn, you got some serious nuts trading like that. nice work.
Quote from neke:
Finally pleased to have some good buffer with which to press on the accelerator, but I need to be careful and avoid knee-jerk action.
Awesome
WTF!!
Nice job Neke !!!! Take your wife out and celebrate this week !!!! Was that the biggest weekly gain ever?
Congrats big boy !!
Engine, he's coming into his biggest week ever: middle of last October he had a $138K week
Just trade October
Just trade October and take the rest of the year off ;-)
AWESOME performance this week !!!
Quote from neke:
Then Thurs, saw BIDU once again on the rise, hit it with 200 put contracts @ 8.55 avg, closed it 30 minutes later @ 10.50 on a pull-back on the stock, netting 39K. A few minutes later hit MA with puts (smaller size of exposure), netting 14K. (An attempt at FCX did not work as well).
Quote from neke:
Finally pleased...
neke, what are you doing different during this uptrend in your p/l as opposed to what you were doing during the draw down?
This years graph is looking a lot like last years graph:
Big move up around week 38. Range bound before that.
Last Year:
This Year:
If Neke manages to close above 1million this year. The first half of this year will look much more compressed than it currently looks on the chart.
Nice recovery there Neke.
My advice... quit now while you're up 200K.
__________________
"How fortunate for leaders that men do not think"
- Adolf Hitler
Quote from JAP:
Nice recovery there Neke.
My advice... quit now while you're up 200K.
Quote from JAP:
Nice recovery there Neke.
My advice... quit now while you're up 200K.
Quote from NoDoji:
Awesome, Neke! You got to this point because you had a severe drawdown and had to rethink your strategies and risk management. You can double your account again by adhering to the same processes that got you here. No matter how much buffer you have, protect it, keep taking only the very best setups and be careful on exp Friday!
Quote from NoDoji:
Engine, he's coming into his biggest week ever: middle of last October he had a $138K week
Quote from ang_99:
neke, what are you doing different during this uptrend in your p/l as opposed to what you were doing during the draw down?
GOOG and ISRG
Quote from neke:
Thanks for mentioning it: I am on a double alert for expiration Friday. I know what happened to me on GOOG call last month, and ISRG put about this time last year.
__________________
Lojze
neke - just for my edu, would you go over again on how the BIDU options trade made profit (BPJVB)? I think it was a long put trade? for the strike price of 410, but during that day (Oct 8 or later), BIDU never dropped down below 412, and the premium was $8.54 I believe.
Thanks
__________________
Trading equities for small guys is guerrilla warfare!
Quote from HeSaidSheSaid:
neke - just for my edu, would you go over again on how the BIDU options trade made profit (BPJVB)? I think it was a long put trade? for the strike price of 410, but during that day (Oct 8 or later), BIDU never dropped down below 412, and the premium was $8.54 I believe.
Thanks
thanks.
I noticed the volume of puts on the trade was quite low. I assume you haven't had problem to get out of your positions for this type of trade? (like trading a low-volume stock).
__________________
Trading equities for small guys is guerrilla warfare!
Psychology
Awesome way to go Neke! I must say that trading at this level requires "balls of steel". I am curious as to what you have done to reach at this level where you are bale to handle larger sizes and what advice would you give to someone like me who is still traidng a very small account aspiring to reach your level
Got big respect for you!
Re: Psychology
Quote from FXSnipe:
Awesome way to go Neke! I must say that trading at this level requires "balls of steel". I am curious as to what you have done to reach at this level where you are bale to handle larger sizes and what advice would you give to someone like me who is still traidng a very small account aspiring to reach your level
Got big respect for you!
Weekly Update for week 40/50 ended 10/17/2009
An OK week, up 28K (5%). Lots of moves up/down. It is interesting one or two trades could have made the difference between an OK week and a stellar one.
Managed to stay alive on Tues, when it could have been either a disastrous day or a very nice one. Bought 2000 ISRG @ 256.50, betting on a good appreciation after the upgrade. Added extra 2000 shares as the stock pulled back to 255. Watched till about 11am and could have closed it out as it was not confirming my expectation, decided to give some more time. To my horror, checked about 15 minutes later, and the stock was down to 246 and cruising down fast. Exited for a loss of 38K. (The stock later bounced back some within the day). Fortunately I bough 200 BIDU 410 calls earlier on when it went down at the open. It later shot up significantly and I closed it for a 49K gain.
Friday, was careful to avoid anything stupid on expiration day. Put in a trigger to get some GOOG calls if the stock price drops below 544 at the open after th earnings. It didn't happen as I watched the stock go up. Finally, bought the 550 CALL ( 100 car @ 4.00) when the stock was about 553.4 (almost the top) at 12.30pm, another 100 car @ 3.50, and watched the reward for my stupidity as the market makers started plunging that stock to pin it back to the 550 strike. Got out at 2.10, losing 33K. Can't believe it was the same GOOG that hit me last month on expiration.
More caution as we go into the avalanche of earnings next week. Got more than 10K from my automated trades.
code:
Opening Balance: 534,697 Net gain for the week 27,619 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 562,316 Number of Trades 31 Number of Profitable Trades 22 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 10/17/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 242,252 (Up 75.7%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 562,316 Number of Trades 1050 Number of Profitable Trades 665 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE BPJJB 2009-10-13-09-51-46 2009-10-13-11-38-52 20000 137000 186000 48714 BIDU CALL GPYJR 2009-10-14-09-41-25 2009-10-14-11-35-29 20000 92000 115000 22723 GS CALL DRIV 2009-10-12-12-24-11 2009-10-12-14-10-53 20000 513000 527047 14012 LONG ------------------------------------------------------ GOPJY 2009-10-16-12-29-40 2009-10-16-13-28-54 20000 75000 42640 -32656 GOOG CALL ISRG 2009-10-13-09-33-36 2009-10-13-11-13-21 4000 1023000 984700 -38346 LONG
How much capital is your automated system using to generate 10k in a week?
you are doing what all on ET want to do...great trading!!!...have you ever successfully traded a smaller account...say $3,000 to $5,000?
Quote from neke:
Exited for a loss of 38K.
Re: Re: Psychology
Quote from NoDoji:
Check his journal when he had a much smaller account: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&threadid=87977
Quote from increasenow:
you are doing what all on ET want to do...
__________________
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPs_j1EEplI&feature=feedwll&list=WL
Quote from HeSaidSheSaid:
thanks.
I noticed the volume of puts on the trade was quite low. I assume you haven't had problem to get out of your positions for this type of trade? (like trading a low-volume stock).
Quote from wutang:
How much capital is your automated system using to generate 10k in a week?
Quote from neke:
Sometimes it's just me against the market maker, so I just hit their bid/ask.
Quote from increasenow:
you are doing what all on ET want to do...great trading!!!...have you ever successfully traded a smaller account...say $3,000 to $5,000?
)
Quote from BPtrader:
neke, how could you take such a loss? How could you do such a thing?
I would never take a loss until the market closes. I would never allow a loss to happen during the market hours, never, a loss can only happen over my dead body.
Actually, a loss and a dead body happen at the same time, at least in my case.
You are a master trader, neke. I would rank you at the same level as Red_Ink, Dustin and Anekdoten.
Neke I have a question. Would u mind explaining to us in sequential order how you came to where you are? Meaning explain how you started with your first small account to how you got to where you are. Did you always trade options? Thanks.
Quote from poyayan:
I am amazed that you can over come the ask/bid spread.
Quote from pjmalcolm1:
Neke I have a question. Would u mind explaining to us in sequential order how you came to where you are? Meaning explain how you started with your first small account to how you got to where you are. Did you always trade options? Thanks.
Quote from wutang:
How much capital is your automated system using to generate 10k in a week?
Neke i have a question do you have an algorythm or scan or a set of rules to pick the stocks you trade or are you just gambling? Your approach to GOOG last week seems to be one of a gambler
nothing wrong with gambling, just curious
thanks!
Quote from jr07:
nothing wrong with gambling, just curious
thanks!
"betting on a good apreciation after the upgrade" i believe neke wrote on friday.
Not gambling? Hmmmmmm.....
Quote from jr07:
"betting on a good apreciation after the upgrade" i believe neke wrote on friday.
Not gambling? Hmmmmmm.....
I agree with everything you say NoDoji, but to me someone who goes long a stock that's been upgraded or short one that has been downgraded is a gambler, that is not a trading system
If it were that simple, anyone could simply subscribe to briefing.com's morning update, receive in the email the upgrades and downgrades, go long the upgrades, go short the downgrades, and retire early rich.
Analyst upgrades and downgrades are not trading signals, it's the public's reaction to those reviews which generates a trading signal through the tape. And that is what I was looking for, I was curious to understanding better Neke's system for deciding to go long or short X or Y stock.
If it's simply based on analyst upgrades and downgrades, without further considerations, he's just been lucky! And I hope his luck doesn't run out
I wouldn't be idolising neke so much like most people on this thread do, I don't see what the skill is behind going long upgraded stocks or short downgraded stocks.
J
Quote from jr07:
I agree with everything you say NoDoji, but to me someone who goes long a stock that's been upgraded or short one that has been downgraded is a gambler, that is not a trading system
If it were that simple, anyone could simply subscribe to briefing.com's morning update, receive in the email the upgrades and downgrades, go long the upgrades, go short the downgrades, and retire early rich.
Analyst upgrades and downgrades are not trading signals, it's the public's reaction to those reviews which generates a trading signal through the tape. And that is what I was looking for, I was curious to understanding better Neke's system for deciding to go long or short X or Y stock.
If it's simply based on analyst upgrades and downgrades, without further considerations, he's just been lucky! And I hope his luck doesn't run out
I wouldn't be idolising neke so much like most people on this thread do, I don't see what the skill is behind going long upgraded stocks or short downgraded stocks.
J
[QUOTE]Quote from neke:
I did not disclose and will not disclose.
Fair enough!
This was my original question, no need to get upset, sorry I ruffled some feathers.
All I wanted to know is how you chose your trades, if you don't want to disclose that's fine.
Sorry I asked.
By the way, a trade without a plan behind it is indeed a bet, but a trade with a plan isn't a bet. It's a trade. I'm sorry you can't see this subtle difference.
Good luck!
This is really interesting Neke, I wish more people would post this stuff up on ET. I've decided I'm definitely going to so people can see how good I'm doing when I get the money to trade properly.
Neke...I would imagine you did take the below 2k to the 320k that this journal started with...correct?...where did you get this 320k to trade with? cash in a 401k, IRA, inheritance, savings, cash from other business, rich uncle?
Quote from neke:
Need to go back to 2004 and earlier for a size that small. But yes, I once traded that size. I remember when I ran my account below 2K. Could no more use margin on Ameritrade, so could not short, was not cost-effective to trade stocks (given the $20 round-trip commission) and I had to wait for some option set-ups. Of course could only do 3 day-trades a week, trying to avoid the day-trader designation. (When I eventually ran foul, opened an IB account for a while and served the 3-month ban
Quote from jr07:
I wouldn't be idolising neke so much like most people on this thread do,
J
Quote from increasenow:
Neke...I would imagine you did take the below 2k to the 320k that this journal started with...correct?...where did you get this 320k to trade with? cash in a 401k, IRA, inheritance, savings, cash from other business, rich uncle?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...&threadid=87977
Neke is the real deal! I like because he does not do what everyone is doing therefor he does not end up with the same results.
Quote from jr07:
By the way, a trade without a plan behind it is indeed a bet, but a trade with a plan isn't a bet. It's a trade. I'm sorry you can't see this subtle difference.
Good luck! [/B]
Quote from increasenow:
Neke...I would imagine you did take the below 2k to the 320k that this journal started with...correct?...where did you get this 320k to trade with? cash in a 401k, IRA, inheritance, savings, cash from other business, rich uncle?
code:
Balance Nov 12, 2004 5.3K Deposit 3.2K P/L 8.7K Withdrawal -2.2K ------- Balance Dec 31, 2004 15K Deposits 13K (made the deposits Mar/Apr after a drawdown that brought the balance below 25K, after being tagged a PDTrader) P/L 2005 132K Withdrawals -25K (Aug thru Dec) ---- Balance Dec 31, 2005 135K (transferred my balance in IB to Ameritrade in january 2006, and closed the account) P/L 2006 125K Withdrawals -169K (taxes and funding a project) ---- Balance Dec 31, 2006 91K Jan 2007 P/L -30K Feb P/L 20K Withdrawal -5K --------------------------- Balance 28 Feb 2007 76K
Quote from trading_time:
would you like to clarify this a bit more, I am confused. Thanks.
TT
that's amazing Neke! I wish you continued success.
Quote from neke:
Since this question is directed at me, let me try and give a brief summary before someone speculates too far. I mentioned that I started my trading in Dec 1999, opening my account with Datek Online (now part of Ameritrade) with deposit of 16K (6K+10K), basically my whole savings from my job, and within 2 weeks I lost 50% of that. A screen shot of those initial balance and trades are attached (good thing Ameritrade keep their online history as far back as that). Through the years till Nov 2004 I lost a cummulative of 54K (account goes down, replenish, get the next drawdown, and so on). By that point in time I had also opened an IB account with a little over 2K which I was trading as well. At that time, the balance in the two accounts came to 5.3K. Every thing in the account now sprung from that balance with some additional deposits, and lots of withdrawals as follows:
code:
Balance Nov 12, 2004 5.3K Deposit 3.2K P/L 8.7K Withdrawal -2.2K ------- Balance Dec 31, 2004 15K Deposits 13K (made the deposits Mar/Apr after a drawdown that brought the balance below 25K, after being tagged a PDTrader) P/L 2005 132K Withdrawals -25K (Aug thru Dec) ---- Balance Dec 31, 2005 135K (transferred my balance in IB to Ameritrade in january 2006, and closed the account) P/L 2006 125K Withdrawals -169K (taxes and funding a project) ---- Balance Dec 31, 2006 91K Jan 2007 P/L -30K Feb P/L 20K Withdrawal -5K --------------------------- Balance 28 Feb 2007 76K
The rest of the story is in my first thread (Taking 76K to 500K by Year End) and subsequent ones.
If I hear one more person say "too much leverage...too much risk" I will blow my top..
THE GUY IS TRYING FOR A 10 BAGGER IN 1 YEAR
OF COURSE HIS RISK/MAX DRAWDOWN IS GOING TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN YOURS, WE AIN"T LOOKING AT A NICE COMFY 25%
Ontop of that he's openly accepted he can and will go broke for taking a shot at the target.
If your buddy walked into a casino (assuming he is also +ev) with a $100 note, and said "I want this to turn into $1000, i'm prepared to go bust"...Would you suggest he start betting $3 per hand??....
Don't get me wrong, Neke's appetite for risk is well beyond what I could ever cope with... But he needs to assume this risk to have any shot at the objective..
Love it/Hate it/Agree/Disagree this has got to be the most entertaining journal on ET...
my 2c
Weekly Update for week 41/50 ended 10/24/2009
A nice week, up 72K (13%). Decent win rate (34 out of 48) made up for lack of home runs.
Missed the big action in AMZN for the most part on Friday. Stayed away as it did not pull-back at the open to my target. Finally entered in the afternoon after a minor pull-back from 117.40 to 116.50, getting 200 NOV 115 calls @ 6.4, sold later for 7.30. Astonishing to see the size of the move for a big company like AMZN after earnings. Looks so much like the dotcom days.
Need to strive to hold up the uptrend as we approach the final part of the year.
code:
Opening Balance: 562,316 Net gain for the week 72,675 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 634,991 Number of Trades 48 Number of Profitable Trades 34 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 10/24/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 314,927 (Up 98.4%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 634,991 Number of Trades 1098 Number of Profitable Trades 699 TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE QZNKC 2009-10-23-13-57-56 2009-10-23-15-13-20 20000 128000 146200 17915 AMZN CALL FHZWQ 2009-10-23-09-43-31 2009-10-23-11-00-49 20000 86000 103000 16723 FCX PUT ISRG 2009-10-21-09-35-11 2009-10-21-10-29-50 6000 1503758 1519509 15670 SHORT APVKT 2009-10-20-10-17-46 2009-10-20-10-46-32 15000 81600 90000 8189 AAPL CALL AAPL 2009-10-21-13-37-36 2009-10-21-15-34-19 6000 1233024 1240734 7643 SHORT ------------------------------------------------------------ APVWT 2009-10-21-10-47-08 2009-10-21-15-33-18 40000 159000 150000 -9545 AAPL PUT PENN 2009-10-21-09-42-13 2009-10-21-11-00-36 10394 301409 291536 -9902 SHORT LXK 2009-10-21-09-56-05 2009-10-21-12-46-14 11000 314301 303886 -10458 SHORT
well you have doubled your account, excellent work, can't wait for your year end finish!
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 41/50 ended 10/24/2009
A nice week, up 72K (13%). Decent win rate (34 out of 48) made up for lack of home runs.
__________________
Great Minds Think Differently
Quote from neke:
Since this question is directed at me, let me try and give a brief summary before someone speculates too far.
Quote from epetrov:
The first million is always very questionable.
Quote from sub0:
Neke was an offshore coke smuggler who met up with a girl while on vacation in Panama and fell in love. He later found out her father was one of the largest dealers out of South America and got intertwined in the family business. 200 helicopter shipments later off the Florida keys and he netted a nice sum of 320k that he'd like to move to 3.5 million by year end. Why 3.5 million? Some triads out of Hong Kong put a hit on him and have kidnapped his girlfriend. The only way to get her back and remove the hit is to pay them 3.5 million dollars or him and all his friends and family will die. Will he succeed, or will the he fail? Stay tuned folks.
Quote from neke:
I mentioned that I started my trading in Dec 1999, opening my account with Datek Online (now part of Ameritrade) with deposit of 16K (6K+10K), basically my whole savings from my job, and within 2 weeks I lost 50% of that. A screen shot of those initial balance and trades are attached (good thing Ameritrade keep their online history as far back as that). Through the years till Nov 2004 I lost a cummulative of 54K (account goes down, replenish, get the next drawdown, and so on).
are you a price action only trade neke? what time frames?
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
you are the man. Neke.
maybe shouldn't say this, but try to stay focused when things is going well.
solid work!
Quote from neke:
Since this question is directed at me, let me try and give a brief summary before someone speculates too far. I mentioned that I started my trading in Dec 1999, opening my account with Datek Online (now part of Ameritrade) with deposit of 16K (6K+10K), basically my whole savings from my job, and within 2 weeks I lost 50% of that. A screen shot of those initial balance and trades are attached (good thing Ameritrade keep their online history as far back as that). Through the years till Nov 2004 I lost a cummulative of 54K (account goes down, replenish, get the next drawdown, and so on). By that point in time I had also opened an IB account with a little over 2K which I was trading as well. At that time, the balance in the two accounts came to 5.3K. Every thing in the account now sprung from that balance with some additional deposits, and lots of withdrawals as follows:
code:
Balance Nov 12, 2004 5.3K Deposit 3.2K P/L 8.7K Withdrawal -2.2K ------- Balance Dec 31, 2004 15K Deposits 13K (made the deposits Mar/Apr after a drawdown that brought the balance below 25K, after being tagged a PDTrader) P/L 2005 132K Withdrawals -25K (Aug thru Dec) ---- Balance Dec 31, 2005 135K (transferred my balance in IB to Ameritrade in january 2006, and closed the account) P/L 2006 125K Withdrawals -169K (taxes and funding a project) ---- Balance Dec 31, 2006 91K Jan 2007 P/L -30K Feb P/L 20K Withdrawal -5K --------------------------- Balance 28 Feb 2007 76K
The rest of the story is in my first thread (Taking 76K to 500K by Year End) and subsequent ones.
__________________
Lojze
Neke, I'd like to say something to you. Congratualations. I am very impressed with the profits. I wish all the best of luck to you. My comments are because I've seen too many blowups. Things like a 3 hour google call that loses $55k, you know? It's not just that one, but I'm sure I'm not the only elite trader that would say that. I'm sure you know, and I'm very aware that's your MO, but I truly hope that you can keep it up, and actually have ironclad rules governing your transactions. I'm getting the sense that you do now, but maybe didn't have them in the beginning, even on the 76k early thread. But, who cares? You made money, and I'm sure you think it was worth it. The cooper comment on the previous page is right. You went to the casino to make $1,000 with $100. Of course you could go bust, or lose half before you call it quits.
Impressive results! Congrats.
I just found your thread and will follow it from now on (although I don't trade Stocks/Options, but Futures, it's educational to see profitable trading in other instruments).
Quote from neke:
Missed the big action in AMZN for the most part on Friday. Stayed away as it did not pull-back at the open to my target. Finally entered in the afternoon after a minor pull-back from 117.40 to 116.50, getting 200 NOV 115 calls @ 6.4, sold later for 7.30. Astonishing to see the size of the move for a big company like AMZN after earnings. Looks so much like the dotcom days.
Quote from lojze:
Neke, which instruments did you trade in those early years? And when die you start trading optins?
Quote from BPtrader:
Don't you think losing 50% in the first 2 weeks is a little too quick?
Neke, What is the greatest lesson you learned since you started trading? What are you doing now that you didn't do in your early years that lead to your success?
neke you have big big cojones... what a rollercoaster... this is better than soap opera drama....
i hope you do get your target.
Quote from buckoboy:
Neke, What is the greatest lesson you learned since you started trading? What are you doing now that you didn't do in your early years that lead to your success?
Quote from cashmoney69:
are you a price action only trade neke? what time frames?
__________________
Greed captures, cuts through, and clarifies the essence of the American spirit
Quote from cashmoney69:
bump
I'll check out Stock Market Wizards. Is there a book in which you base your trading style?
The reason I ask is because I've been trading for 3 years now and have recently fallen into a huge downhill roll. No mater which way I trade, I can't get it right and am personally becoming skeptical to speculation and market timing long term.
Quote from buckoboy:
I'll check out Stock Market Wizards. Is there a book in which you base your trading style?
The reason I ask is because I've been trading for 3 years now and have recently fallen into a huge downhill roll. No mater which way I trade, I can't get it right and am personally becoming skeptical to speculation and market timing long term.
Weekly Update for week 42/50 ended 10/31/2009
Ugly week, down 59K (9.3%). Gave back most of last week's gains. The market is begging for direction, and hit me with a wave of bigger moves than anticipated, catching me on the wrong side.
Three successive days of 20+ pts uni-directional moves in the S&P500. Down Wed, Up Thurs, Down Fri. Was hit really hard on Wed and Thur, and sat down to reflect on Friday.
Wed, what started as an automated trade in GRMN turned into a discretionary averaging down disaster as the stock failed to bounce back. Finally capitulated @ 12:51, selling 20220 at the market when I could bear it no more. The stock was then trading at 31.08; Got filled at prices between 30.85 and 30.94. That was the low of the day: somebody knew the last combattant had fallen!
Thursday, loaded up on FSLR puts sometime after the open after their bad earnings. Wrong timing of entry(waited too long) and exit, as the market roared to close the day up more than 2%. Gave up 45K.
Cut down on my automated size to minuscule level after Wed: the strategies do not like big uninterrupted moves.
code:
Opening Balance: 634,991 Net loss for the week -58,994 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 575,997 Number of Trades 34 Number of Profitable Trades 17 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 10/31/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 255,933 (Up 80%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 575,997 Number of Trades 1132 Number of Profitable Trades 716 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE BIDU 2009-10-26-17-50-48 2009-10-27-09-31-55 827 296604 319677 23044 SHORT QZNWX 2009-10-26-10-02-30 2009-10-26-11-35-53 30000 203570 216000 12021 AMZN PUT ------------------------------------------ PVTB 2009-10-26-12-06-47 2009-10-26-15-35-07 22470 291311 270491 -20862 LONG GRMN 2009-10-28-11-11-50 2009-10-28-12-51-27 20220 660963 625419 -35616 LONG QHBWE 2009-10-29-09-51-32 2009-10-29-11-16-10 40000 272000 228000 -44547 FSLR PUT
Neke: I am disappointed. How could you lose this week and by that much? Maybe you do not know how to read the overall market or the end of a trend and emergence of new trends? In the absence of an explanation, I would start to think that you have no edge.
PS: I know I was watching GRMN among other stocks that fell hard. I think I traded it on short side, but I did NOT cover at the bottom if I did trade it--- So I did not take your money. This week I was in other problem stocks such as FSLR, BIDU, and some others I do not even know what they do.
Quote from riskfreetrading:
Neke: I am disappointed. How could you lose this week and by that much? Maybe you do not know how to read the overall market or the end of a trend and emergence of new trends? In the absence of an explanation, I would start to think that you have no edge.
PS: I know I was watching GRMN among other stocks that fell hard. I think I traded it on short side, but I did NOT cover at the bottom if I did trade it--- So I did not take your money. This week I was in other problem stocks such as FSLR, BIDU, and some others I do not even know what they do.
You mis-understood what I wrote/meant. If others than you got the same understanding as you, and if they ask me to re-explain I would redo it-- otherwise your comment is an outlier.
Oh well Neke. I got hit hard this week too. At least a 10% loss is 60K for you, you have nice profits this year. One week does not a trend make. These transitional periods are difficult. I am long SNDK and haven't a clue why after such stellar earnings they are selling offas hard as they are. Next week, new plays.
Wilt
Quote from riskfreetrading:
You mis-understood what I wrote/meant. If others than you got the same understanding as you, and if they ask me to re-explain I would redo it-- otherwise your comment is an outlier.
Quote from riskfreetrading:
You mis-understood what I wrote/meant. If others than you got the same understanding as you, and if they ask me to re-explain I would redo it-- otherwise your comment is an outlier.
Quote from Nanook:
I am one of those that "mis-understood" what you meant:
Please "re-explain" your "redo it".
Thanks.
AMZN earnings were last week...LOL!
Fucking histerical.
Like I said, don't bother. I'm really not interested in what anyone with 3K+ posts has to say.
Quote from illiquid:
I believe partly what he is referring to is the fact that Neke's nominal returns certainly are impressive, but what kind of positions are he putting on to get them? He is day trading 5-figure share sizes (or the equivalent in options) in stocks like Amazon, First Solar, even Garmin -- volatile names to say the least. You need to compare sizes put on to returns made; for say 20k share positions on average, a weekly net in mid-5 figures means around 2-3 pts TOTAL net gain. 2 or 3 pts on stocks like FSLR or AMZN certainly is beyond noise, but not really by much when you think about it.
I trade many of the volatile names Neke trades, I only trade a max size of a couple thousand shares per position. But my daily net swings are in the mid-to-high four figures already; if I were to ever put on a position of say 20K shares of AMZN or GRMN, I would most definitely be looking for mid-5 figure gains DAILY; weekly, almost certainly over 6 figures.
That's just the nature of the stocks he trades; to me, the only way one can get into a position of 20-30k shares of AMZN (this week in particular), only to exit all for 1 or 2 pt gain, is if one continually averages down into that size throughout the course of the day and finally exits in relief. Otherwise, if one actually timed that such a position in a decent manner, a six-figure intraday profit on a single position should not be such a rare occurence on his blotter (all those stocks mentioned had earnings or news events this past week -- AMZN itself went from 94 to 120 within 2 sessions).
Please don't look upon this post as some sort of mean-spirited critique, returns in this caliber on this board are obviously pretty rare and deserve to be celebrated first and foremost. But the question of "edge", as opposed to just reserve buying power and the willingness to use it, is a valid one and one which neke should always be asking himself no matter what how his account is doing.
Edit: I know that Red Ink follows this thread as well; I would ask that he chime in on this subject as he obviously trades in equivalent or even larger sizes on an intraday time frame. I'm not yet swinging that big a bat but at least I am familiar with the stocks that are mentioned in this thread.
Quote from Nanook:
I am one of those that "mis-understood" what you meant:
Please "re-explain" your "redo it".
Thanks.
Quote from Mike Morrison:
AMZN earnings were last week...LOL!
Fucking histerical.
Like I said, don't bother. I'm really not interested in what anyone with 3K+ posts has to say.
Quote from riskfreetrading:
In my view this past Wednesday was a typically day wished for by traders--- "easy" and classical. Seasoned traders should love it, as the market was clearly going down in continuation of previous day, smooth in its progress and yet fast.
Quote from BPtrader:
My suggestion to you: shut up your mouth, because you have no clue what you are talking about.
In 5 years, you may (not guaranteed) realize how stupid your comment is.
I am not going to tell you why, you have to get it by yourself, if you are lucky.
Neke is one of the few traders who graduated from the University of Hardknocks, while you, my friend, has just registered for Trading 101 course.
by the way, 95% of the students in the University of Hardknocks fail to graduate, go figure your own chance of survival.
Quote from illiquid:
I can tell already you've contributed many constructive posts with well placed f bombs
Quote from riskfreetrading:
My initial interest in markets was not to make money but rather to run laboratory experiments with respect to human nature as a group.
the neke threads serve many educative purposes with emphasis on what role plays averaging down on a successful trading strategy.
despite the criticism and strong opposition from the so-called trading gurus, averaging down it is effectively the single most important aspect of any successful trading plan and in many cases a MO by itself.
Quote from illiquid:
I can tell already you've contributed many constructive posts with well placed f bombs
Quote from crash n burn:
despite the criticism and strong opposition from the so-called trading gurus, averaging down it is effectively the single most important aspect of any successful trading plan and in many cases a MO by itself.
Quote from Mike Morrison:
If you think what you guys are posting is constructive you're nuts.
I would never do anything but wish a profitable trader good luck even if I personally didn't see what he saw in a trade. At most I might say be careful but never would I presume to be smarter, especially in hindsight and with no skin in the game like you two.
And I sure as hell wouldn't be offering advice to someone whose made more money than me. Maybe you should shut up and try learning instead of teaching.
For anyone here (and on other threads) who claims otherwise, nobody knows in advance what the market's going to do and when it's going to reverse direction.
Very early this month in pre-market the ES fell off a cliff on very bearish disappointing news and I'm sure MANY traders thought, "This is really bearish news. This is the big correction we've been expecting" and were shorting and adding to their short positions all the way down to the 1012 zone where it found rapid support in an established long term uptrend and moved on to break "DOW 10000". I'm sure there were traders who shorted 1013, expecting a push into the 900's before finding support.
What has cost me the most as a trader in both profits cut short and in losses is market bias.
Market bias: "Price has gone too high, it has to come down." "Price has gone too low, it has to go back up." "Earnings were bad, this stock is gonna tank." "The economy is a mess, this market can't keep going up." Etc.
What's worked like an ATM machine is positive expectancy based on technical price action zones: "We've reversed and left a higher low, go long now." "We're in a downtrend, sell the next rally to the 20 EMA with a stop at 55% retracement to the previous resistance level." "We're about to test the high in a strong uptrend, place a buy stop just above the high for the breakout." Etc.
Some people say you have to have bias to make a decision which direction to put on a trade, but I've learned from a few mentors on ET that you absolutely do not. (This doesn't mean I've yet shaken my bias; it's still a huge struggle for me to get over and as a result I often cut my winners too quickly.)
What's crucial is to trade the price action and use technical zones (S/R and overbought/oversold) as a GUIDE to positive expectancy. News may be very bearish, but if the big money sees a support level at the trend line in an established uptrend it will continue to accumulate to the long side and the stock (or market) will go up, because the trend is your friend until it ends and picking tops/bottoms should only be done technically and with extremely tight inviolable stops.
Fading tops/bottoms requires averaging into losers (except in those rare cases when you get very lucky and catch the true pivot high/low). Although this strategy can produce losses (as can any strategy), it can also produce very nice gains.
Neke, I believe you get into trouble on trades where you have a strong bias going in and when it inexplicably moves against you, you continue to fade the move by averaging in until the pain is too much. This is the result of lack of planning.
My suggestion is to KNOW IN ADVANCE how much you're willing to lose on the trade, divide your full position into 3 or 4 parts to average in with, and exit at the predetermined max loss. If you find yourself having the thought "This HAS to turn around", that's a sign you're trading on bias and emotion instead of a trading plan (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/print...threadid=114977).
Planning a trade means you've accepted a potential loss of $X on the trade and by accepting that in advance as the price of admission to the trade, you won't get emotional over it if it runs against you.
Seriously, are you willing to lose $40K or $50K on a single trade? Probably not unless your AVERAGE winner is $60K or better.
Based on the above, I'd say your name fits you quite well
Quote from crash n burn:
averaging down it is effectively the single most important aspect of any successful trading plan and in many cases a MO by itself.
Quote from illiquid:
instead of just getting a hard-on over the figures like yourself.
Quote from Mike Morrison:
If you think what you guys are posting is constructive you're nuts.
I would never do anything but wish a profitable trader good luck even if I personally didn't see what he saw in a trade. At most I might say be careful but never would I presume to be smarter, especially in hindsight and with no skin in the game like you two.
And I sure as hell wouldn't be offering advice to someone whose made more money than me. Maybe you should shut up and try learning instead of teaching.
Quote from Mike Morrison:
LOL!..You have no clue.
While his style isn't for me it sure is exciting to watch.
Quote from Mike Morrison:
I especially like the people who post their +/- $50 days on the PnL thread giving advice about how the markets and the big money works.
This thread is one of two I subscribe to. It is a good one.
Neke has given a different perspective on risk/reward. He would less likely have achieved this level of success from similar humble beginning as a lot of traders if he treats risk as everybody else;
A lot of people are critical of double down. Double down is part of neke's success. Whether to use double down it depends on time frame of favorable trend, account size, draw down tolerance ability. Buying on dip is effectively double-down. Therefore it should not be ruled out completely, should be used in discretion.
__________________
Silent, Omnipresent Gravity
With enough money, you can buy God.
Quote from Mike Morrison:
LOL!..You have no clue.
It just cracks me up to read the jibberish some of you write. I especially like the people who post their +/- $50 days on the PnL thread giving advice about how the markets and the big money works. Absolutely fucking classic! Only on ET can one find such nonsense so easily.
__________________
Nexen
Daytrader not paper
Neke, let's see the account balance?
Morrison you said it,trade to make 50 here,and lose 30 there you really need some trading skills, you people be better off selling dvds on Shay, pathetic. ..
Quote from dealmaker:
Neke, let's see the account balance?
Quote from dealmaker:
Neke, let's see the account balance?
__________________
Nexen
Daytrader not paper
neke, here's one of the legends of Jazz piano, who played with Miles Davis and scores of other giants in that genre. Hope this will lessen the pain for this week and get you back up on your feet. Enjoy!
Quote from riskfreetrading:
Neke: I am disappointed. How could you lose this week and by that much? Maybe you do not know how to read the overall market or the end of a trend and emergence of new trends? In the
absence of an explanation, I would start to think that you have no edge.
I'm amazed at your run... totally blown away. Now if you were me, you'd take all of the money off the table and put it into high yielding rental properties, and take the relatively passive income and start a new nestegg with it. Within 2 months, you'll have 10 grand to repeat this whole process with. ( I think you could easily generate $5k net/month off 600k of cash in some socal foreclosure real estate if you focused). With some leverage and the right credit situation, you could probably turn that $5k/month into $8k/month net...
__________________
http://scriabinop23.blogspot.com
Quote from TraderZones:
That is because you do not understand what happens occasionally when someone does this. Try watching some of the systems at places like C2 where "vendors" do this. A lot of the blown out systems were averaging down and then got wiped out on an unexpected large market move.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 42/50 ended 10/31/2009
Ugly week, down 59K (9.3%). Gave back most of last week's gains. The market is begging for direction, and hit me with a wave of bigger moves than anticipated, catching me on the wrong side.
Three successive days of 20+ pts uni-directional moves in the S&P500. Down Wed, Up Thurs, Down Fri. Was hit really hard on Wed and Thur, and sat down to reflect on Friday.
Wed, what started as an automated trade in GRMN turned into a discretionary averaging down disaster as the stock failed to bounce back. Finally capitulated @ 12:51, selling 20220 at the market when I could bear it no more. The stock was then trading at 31.08; Got filled at prices between 30.85 and 30.94. That was the low of the day: somebody knew the last combattant had fallen!
Thursday, loaded up on FSLR puts sometime after the open after their bad earnings. Wrong timing of entry(waited too long) and exit, as the market roared to close the day up more than 2%. Gave up 45K.
Cut down on my automated size to minuscule level after Wed: the strategies do not like big uninterrupted moves.
code:
Opening Balance: 634,991 Net loss for the week -58,994 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 575,997 Number of Trades 34 Number of Profitable Trades 17 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 10/31/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 255,933 (Up 80%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 575,997 Number of Trades 1132 Number of Profitable Trades 716 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE BIDU 2009-10-26-17-50-48 2009-10-27-09-31-55 827 296604 319677 23044 SHORT QZNWX 2009-10-26-10-02-30 2009-10-26-11-35-53 30000 203570 216000 12021 AMZN PUT ------------------------------------------ PVTB 2009-10-26-12-06-47 2009-10-26-15-35-07 22470 291311 270491 -20862 LONG GRMN 2009-10-28-11-11-50 2009-10-28-12-51-27 20220 660963 625419 -35616 LONG QHBWE 2009-10-29-09-51-32 2009-10-29-11-16-10 40000 272000 228000 -44547 FSLR PUT
Quote from scriabinop23:
I'm amazed at your run... totally blown away. Now if you were me, you'd take all of the money off the table and put it into high yielding rental properties, and take the relatively passive income and start a new nestegg with it. Within 2 months, you'll have 10 grand to repeat this whole process with. ( I think you could easily generate $5k net/month off 600k of cash in some socal foreclosure real estate if you focused). With some leverage and the right credit situation, you could probably turn that $5k/month into $8k/month net...
Actually he gave good advice, assume he is suggesting purchase with all cash and no mortgage. Because that is what I have done. Now I trade mostly to piss around and pass the time.
The majority of Neke' profit has all been in a handful of days I can count on one hand. The vast majority of the time he treads water, loses, or is fighting back.
Therefore, given his winning days are with extreme leverage and on, oh maybe 4 days out of all the trading days, statistically he may very well go back and test his opening numbers.
Never underestimate the value of free cashflow. Free cashflow thrown towards a compounding vehicle, is how real multi-generational wealth is created.
Quote from bwolinsky:
That bullshit about investing in illiquid assets is what bankrupts more people in this country than anything. The biggest hit for celebrities is always what to do with 20 million dollar mortgage with no income. Even if you got 2 mill in the bank it will still bankrupt you, and that's even with a quarter million dollar a year income, which would be hard to come by if you're washed up. Neke doesn't have enough money to do that. His liquidity and trading does him more good than a piece of a money pit.
Quote from neke:
There are ways and ways to trade the markets. Some profitable traders fade moves, some others go with the trend, yet others are direction-neutral, and of course some mix all of the above. It is naive to think all profitable traders see the same thing the same way at the same time. As for question about an "edge", that is better left to individual interpretation, but since I read somewhere you won a mathematical championship, I would pose this to you:
If you had $10,000 to start with, and staked 50% of your balance on the toss of a fair coin. Heads, you win as much as you staked; tails you lose your stake. (So if first toss is a win, you have $15,000 for the next play, and can stake 7,500). There is some chance that after 2 tosses you could be ahead. What is the probability of having more than $10,000 balance after 100 tosses? I pose this to you because you should easily be able to compute this from your background, and my own statistics tells me without an edge, leverage diminishes your chance of being ahead in the long-run and not the reverse.
Part of my drawdowns come from rule violations, and I seek to get better in avoiding those. Others are a natural part of my trading, and there is nothing to do than bear them. Drawdowns are inevitable part of my trading, and it would be silly to get worked up after every such. I have traded long enough to be able to put one week's result in the longer-term perspective.
Sorry to post again (this will be the last topic of the thread I will butt my head into, promise), but I don't see how using high leverage to produce gains reinforces the idea that one has an edge. A negative edge can temporarily show extraordinary performance with extreme leverage; in fact, that's usually the only way they can. Considering neke had a pretty deep drawdown from peak only a few months ago, I don't think you can compare his trading to 10,000 coin flips just yet. Additionally, even a postive edge, using high leverage, can quickly deteriorate into catastrophe if conditions change (LTCM).
But the whole question of edge is moot. All markets change over time, what is important for longevity is understanding where and how your gains are achieved, understanding that can give you the ability to even anticipate when and under what conditions your returns will deteriorate. Leverage is not an edge; on the contrary, it just makes the slope even more slippery on the way down if that is indeed the case.
I tried to make a point for the sake of giving precaution, but now I really don't feel there's anyone listening. Good luck whenever you decide to go full-time with this.
Illiquid:
I would be good if you could stay and post more. Your posts provide value. I wanted to comment, but thought to step aside until Neke had a chance to read it.
Neke:
It would be useful if you could signal whether it is ok with you if there would be a debate. Maybe some comments on Illiquid's points would also be appreciated by the thread readers.
This thread is becoming more and more intersting! Keep going, please.
Weekly Update for week 43/50 ended 11/07/2009
Another bad week. Down 24K(4%). Really bad trading decisions all around. Glad the week has ended to think of fixing what is broken.
Biggest loss was shorting BDK on its rally after the announcement of the offer. Not enough due diligence made before deciding to short. The stock kept climbing, and I averaged in recklessly and took on too much size, and without the requisite spacing ( 5000 @ 58 after hrs, 5000 @ 58.22, 5000 @ 58.50, 5000 @ 58.66. Covered 1200 @ 59.55, 18800 @ 60.00). Cost me 33K. Then on Fri was taken to the cleaners on HANS. Trades made without conviction and whipsawed endlessly. Shorted 10000 @34.20, covered 34.80 losing 6K, then went long 20000 shares, sold at 18K loss. Came back later for another try at long: lost 8k. Made a little back on AMZN call.
code:
Opening Balance: 575,997 Net loss for the week -24,055 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 551,942 Number of Trades 30 Number of Profitable Trades 20 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 11/07/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 231,878 (Up 72.4%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 551,942 Number of Trades 1162 Number of Profitable Trades 736 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE WFMI 2009-11-05-09-30-08 2009-11-05-11-54-52 20000 561484 580178 18644 SHORT QZNKX 2009-11-06-10-31-22 2009-11-06-15-50-15 30000 128485 139500 10608 AMZN CALL ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HANS 2009-11-06-10-10-56 2009-11-06-10-19-59 20000 678614 670124 -8528 LONG HANS 2009-11-06-09-45-48 2009-11-06-10-06-36 20000 695638 678003 -17667 LONG BDK 2009-11-02-17-51-34 2009-11-03-11-07-03 20000 1199460 1166677 -32869 PRECONS
[QUOTE]Quote from neke:
[B]Weekly Update for week 43/50 ended 11/07/2009
===========================================
Wow! No responses regarding Neke's performance and this was posted yesterday!
What happened to ET?
Hate to intrude, could someone tell me how to include my attachment file as an image as neke has done in his last post?
thanks
Quote from niteowl8:
Wow! No responses regarding Neke's performance and this was posted yesterday!
What happened to ET? [/B]
the amount of confidence you must have to stand those swings.....incomprehensible to me. You have one hell of an edge to run at this level.
Quote from niteowl8:
[QUOTE]Quote from neke:
[B]Weekly Update for week 43/50 ended 11/07/2009
===========================================
Wow! No responses regarding Neke's performance and this was posted yesterday!
What happened to ET?
Quote from Index piker:
Hate to intrude, could someone tell me how to include my attachment file as an image as neke has done in his last post?
thanks
I just have another question. Could you go over the AMZN option trade that you made last Friday? it seems at the time you sold the calls, the time value dropped approximately from 4.28 down to 3.68, even though the premium went up to 4.65. this increase was contributed by the gain in the intrinsic value ($1). actually, the time value loss decreased by 60 cents (4.28-3.68) while the premium gain was 0.36 (4.65-4.28) which was also the profit of the trade.
please correct me if I'm wrong, for this type of trading, profit can be gained from the premium difference. it doesn't matter it's contributed by the time value or the intrinsic value?
Thank you much.
__________________
Trading equities for small guys is guerrilla warfare!
This guy is on tilt, likely to blow up in a few months and close the account with 0.19 cents to his name.
fun to watch
keep losing.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 43/50 ended 11/07/2009
Another bad week. Down 24K(4%).
code:
Opening Balance: 575,997 Net loss for the week -24,055 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 551,942 Number of Trades 30 Number of Profitable Trades 20 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 11/07/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 231,878 (Up 72.4%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 551,942 Number of Trades 1162 Number of Profitable Trades 736
Why don't you post your precious little thoughts in your own thread rather than littering his journal with the above garbage?
Quote from Index piker:
1)This account will grind back down to the 2009 opening value.
2) My portfolio will slowly creep up on and outperform neke's long-term.
2a) How long this will take is probably dependent upon how much of 2008's returns he is willing to give back, and that would truly be a shame.
Quote from Index piker:
Advice: Half a million dollars invested in a diversified asset allocation of inexpensive index funds is nothing to sneeze at , don't blow it.
Don't worry about Index piker guys.
He's innumerate (mathematically ignorant) and is going around showing how great "passive indexing" is ... too bad he isn't doing that. What he IS doing is (a) actively trading (on a long-term basis) ETFs, while they are in an uptrend, and then going to cash when they are in a downtrend ... that is not "passive investing". (b) He is also including his 401k and IRA contributions as part of his "total return". I (and several other traders) pointed these things out to him, but he is (obviously) very stubborn as well as ignorant, so I don't want to waste anymore time on him after pointing out what a half-wit he really is
Link
P.S. It is the greatest irony that he talks about the law of large numbers ... as if he even had a clue!
__________________
...
Quote from NoDoji:
A 72% YTD return is nothing to sneeze at either.
take a look neke
Quote from ammo:
take a look neke
__________________
MY POINT
Quote from Index piker:
True, and I suggest he safeguard some of those gains before he finds them evaporated and a wistful memory.
__________________
...
Quote from ammo:
take a look neke
Quote from Index piker:
True, and I suggest he safeguard some of those gains before he finds them evaporated and a wistful memory.
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
Kinda like what happend to all of the passive index investors when they held on for the downturn in '00 to '03 and again from '08 to '09 ... right?
Right?
Quote from Index piker:
It may come as surprise to you but bear markets don't scare me ...
Quote from Index piker:
... and anyone using periodic investing gets shares cheaper which works in favor of the long term investor.
__________________
...
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
Don't worry about Index piker guys.
He's innumerate (mathematically ignorant) ... (b) He is also including his 401k and IRA contributions as part of his "total return".
Link
P.S. It is the greatest irony that he talks about the law of large numbers ... as if he even had a clue!
Quote from Index piker:
Somehow my success threatens you.
My advice is: you'd better get used to it.
__________________
...
Weekly Update for week 44/50 ended 11/14/2009
An OK week, up 28K(5%). Thought my week was ruined on Monday with BIDU, but started a comeback on Tuesday, and finished green for the week.
On Monday bought 200 BIDU 410 PUT @ 8.50, averaged in another 200 cars as the stock climbed. Same time took on 2000 shares short in two installments. Glad that was all my account could handle. Crashed out later in the day losing 11K on the stock, and 39K on the put option(put in an order to exit 400 @ 7.3, got filled on 327, carried the rest overnight and exited at 6.60). The leverage was insane: clear violation of intention.
caught 3000 shares of PCLN after hours same day following stellar earnings. Closed following morning @ 188.50, netting 17K: WAY TOO EARLY. Glad came back and picked up some call options in two segments (not having the confidence to stay too long), making 15K and 16K.
caution as we approach the final weeks of the year. Effort should now be spent planning for next year.
code:
Opening Balance: 551,942 Net gain for the week 28,329 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 580,271 Number of Trades 15 Number of Profitable Trades 10 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 11/14/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 260,207(Up 81.3%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 580,271 Number of Trades 1177 Number of Profitable Trades 746 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE PCLN 2009-11-09-16-08-02 2009-11-10-08-04-59 3000 549915 566679 16728 LONG PNEKA 2009-11-10-10-57-30 2009-11-10-11-57-10 10000 84000 100230 16077 PCLN CALL PNEKA 2009-11-10-10-00-31 2009-11-10-10-16-35 10000 56976 72000 14878 PCLN CALL QCTWN 2009-11-12-09-31-11 2009-11-12-10-04-26 40000 90870 104000 12579 CTRP PUT M 2009-11-11-08-09-08 2009-11-11-10-02-44 20000 364600 375003 10372 SHORT ------------------------------------------------------ BIDU 2009-11-09-09-36-49 2009-11-09-16-00-26 2000 851200 840564 -10679 SHORT BPJWB 2009-11-09-09-32-41 2009-11-10-10-47-30 40000 325620 286895 -39294 BIDU PUT
Neke,
Here are some things to think about.
If you had just sunk it all into BIDU or APPL at the start of the year then you would be up more then you are now. You made over 1000 trades and did not get as far as some guy who sunk all his cash into a few popular stocks at the start of the year. In fact, there are some mutual funds that outperformed you this year.
You used these lottery ticket methods many times that never panned out and sometimes there were big disasters where you lost a good percentage of your capital. You spent many hours of your time focusing on the market when your time could have been put elsewhere in more constructive ways.
If I might ask, have you learned your lesson yet? The key to success in the market is on the big swings and these lotto ticket like trades will get you nowhere and may even lead to disaster. If I may point out something, now you are trying to avoid the market during the best 6 trading months (November through April). These next 6 trading months have proven to be most profitable through backtesting.
http://books.google.com/books?id=Kw...0market&f=false
Im not here writing to berate or degrade you. Im not here to troll and throw this thread off. However, I am here to give you a dose of reality and make you think. The dose of reality is that you did not do too well this year. You could have done a lot better.
You should not simply give in now because its the end of the year. In fact, the Christmas rally time of December is a great time to make money. It has been proven that November through April is the best time to make money. So maybe you should start another thread about doubling your money from November to April. Your mistake is that you are thinking along conventional periods of time. You have to think along with the market's time, not your time.
retaildaytrader, I have backtested your "strategy" for the last 10 years: buy the first day of november, and sell the first day of may. I used a fixed 300,000 account (Neke's amount at the beginning of the year), and no compounding or margin, and here are the annualized results:
AAPL: 9.33% + 26,000 open (10 years)
BIDU: 7.27% + 50,000 open (5 years)
GOOG: 2.21% + 23,000 open (5 years)
SPY: -0.33% + 17,000 open
DIA: 1.29% + 17,000 open
Hardly the 100% Neke is looking to get every year, but not bad either, considering that the money have only been used for half a year, and no compounding. The trick is picking the right stocks, because if you used the indexes you would be under water.
I think what retaildaytrader is trying to get at is treat each trade as an operation--like how Jesse Livermore did by pyramiding into a winning position.
It's not easy to do, especially if you are already making good money.
Quote from retaildaytrader:
If you had just sunk it all into BIDU or APPL at the start of the year then you would be up more then you are now. You made over 1000 trades and did not get as far as some guy who sunk all his cash into a few popular stocks at the start of the year. In fact, there are some mutual funds that outperformed you this year.
Neke is not an investor in this journal, he is a day trader, and there is a big difference. I am sure if he wanted to buy and hold he would. Your suggestions are only on a couple stocks, which is a all your eggs in one basket thing, not a wise move. not mentioning that you are looking at those stocks after the fact. When has this done any trader any good?
Neke is doing very well, better then most, and more often then not change brings loss. All he needs is fine tuning to make his goal one of these years.
In my opinion no ones needs to tell him what he needs to do.
TT
Quote from retaildaytrader:
[/B]
Quote from retaildaytrader:
Neke,
Here are some things to think about.
If you had just sunk it all into BIDU or APPL at the start of the year then you would be up more then you are now. You made over 1000 trades and did not get as far as some guy who sunk all his cash into a few popular stocks at the start of the year. In fact, there are some mutual funds that outperformed you this year.
You used these lottery ticket methods many times that never panned out and sometimes there were big disasters where you lost a good percentage of your capital. You spent many hours of your time focusing on the market when your time could have been put elsewhere in more constructive ways.
If I might ask, have you learned your lesson yet? The key to success in the market is on the big swings and these lotto ticket like trades will get you nowhere and may even lead to disaster. If I may point out something, now you are trying to avoid the market during the best 6 trading months (November t
Quote from retaildaytrader:
Neke,
If you had just sunk it all into BIDU or APPL at the start of the year then you would be up more then you are now. You made over 1000 trades and did not get as far as some guy who sunk all his cash into a few popular stocks at the start of the year.
Quote from NoDoji:
And he's managing this kind of return despite consistently violating his rules about averaging and leverage. (Neke, stop that! My NEKE Dec $975K calls are at risk here!)
Good job Neke, I disagree with your approach but congratulations on your gains and (hopefully) the end of your slump.
Quote from neke:
Yes, I am mindful of your call options. Each time I suffer a drawdown, I think...
Quote from TraderZones:
I am curious, did you ever run a TradeStation type analysis on your trading?
At minimum, Profit Factor, Sharpe/Sortino, dradown analysis, etc.?
Quote from neke:
I don't know what trade station type is - I don't use them, but I do analyse my results a lot (my code + excel) and get statistics I am interested in - profit factor (yes), sharpe ratio (sort of -whatever anyone wants to make of it), others (not sure of your definition).
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Quote from illiquid:
I believe partly what he is referring to is the fact that Neke's nominal returns certainly are impressive, but what kind of positions are he putting on to get them? He is day trading 5-figure share sizes (or the equivalent in options) in stocks like Amazon, First Solar, even Garmin -- volatile names to say the least. You need to compare sizes put on to returns made; for say 20k share positions on average, a weekly net in mid-5 figures means around 2-3 pts TOTAL net gain. 2 or 3 pts on stocks like FSLR or AMZN certainly is beyond noise, but not really by much when you think about it.
I trade many of the volatile names Neke trades, I only trade a max size of a couple thousand shares per position. But my daily net swings are in the mid-to-high four figures already; if I were to ever put on a position of say 20K shares of AMZN or GRMN, I would most definitely be looking for mid-5 figure gains DAILY; weekly, almost certainly over 6 figures.
That's just the nature of the stocks he trades; to me, the only way one can get into a position of 20-30k shares of AMZN (this week in particular), only to exit all for 1 or 2 pt gain, is if one continually averages down into that size throughout the course of the day and finally exits in relief. Otherwise, if one actually timed that such a position in a decent manner, a six-figure intraday profit on a single position should not be such a rare occurence on his blotter (all those stocks mentioned had earnings or news events this past week -- AMZN itself went from 94 to 120 within 2 sessions).
Please don't look upon this post as some sort of mean-spirited critique, returns in this caliber on this board are obviously pretty rare and deserve to be celebrated first and foremost. But the question of "edge", as opposed to just reserve buying power and the willingness to use it, is a valid one and one which neke should always be asking himself no matter what how his account is doing.
Edit: I know that Red Ink follows this thread as well; I would ask that he chime in on this subject as he obviously trades in equivalent or even larger sizes on an intraday time frame. I'm not yet swinging that big a bat but at least I am familiar with the stocks that are mentioned in this thread.
Quote from illiquid:
Sorry to post again (this will be the last topic of the thread I will butt my head into, promise), but I don't see how using high leverage to produce gains reinforces the idea that one has an edge. A negative edge can temporarily show extraordinary performance with extreme leverage; in fact, that's usually the only way they can. Considering neke had a pretty deep drawdown from peak only a few months ago, I don't think you can compare his trading to 10,000 coin flips just yet. Additionally, even a postive edge, using high leverage, can quickly deteriorate into catastrophe if conditions change (LTCM).
But the whole question of edge is moot. All markets change over time, what is important for longevity is understanding where and how your gains are achieved, understanding that can give you the ability to even anticipate when and under what conditions your returns will deteriorate. Leverage is not an edge; on the contrary, it just makes the slope even more slippery on the way down if that is indeed the case.
I tried to make a point for the sake of giving precaution, but now I really don't feel there's anyone listening. Good luck whenever you decide to go full-time with this.
Quote from retaildaytrader:
...If you had just sunk it all into BIDU or APPL at the start of the year then you would be up more then you are now. You made over 1000 trades and did not get as far as some guy who sunk all his cash into a few popular stocks at the start of the year. In fact, there are some mutual funds that outperformed you this year.
.....
The dose of reality is that you did not do too well this year. You could have done a lot better.
The point of this journal, in my opinion, is not to just cheer Neke on, but to provide constructive observation and criticism in order to assist him in achieving his goals. Sometimes that criticism is not what you want or desire to hear. I can easily sit out of this journal and provide no criticism or post cheerleader remarks when he is up and sympathy when he is down, but that would do no good for Neke. I want to see Neke get to 3.5 million so that is why I provide my honest observations.
I saw some remarks asking about my own personal performance, but this journal is not about myself. Im not saying that I am an expert in trading and I am not. However, input is valuable whether it comes from a trading expert or someone who does not anything about the markets in the first place. Its especially valuable when you are dealing with six and seven digit figures. You want input in order to better yourself and address the issues that are preventing you from obtaining your goals. You want very critical self-analysis of the way you are doing things and Im sorry if that analysis is not what you want to hear, but thats how you improve yourself through addressing the issues.
The fact of the matter is that Neke has been in the trading business for over 10 years. There were many people I knew back in March that were asking me how to open an account on TDAmeritrade. For example, a female doctor asked me to assist her with opening an account and some basic instruction on trading. She knew absolutely nothing about charts, strategies or any of this business. She saw that the market was at a bottom and got in on some mining stocks like TCK and some foreign etfs like FXI. There were also countless articles from market pundants at the time like Doug Kass and a certain short fund manager stating that this was the bottom. Even on this website there were quite a few people saying that March was the bottom.
While I saw some bottom callers in 2008, like Jim Cramer, they were few and far between. No one was asking me how to open a brokerage account and there were a lot of people doubting the market had bottomed. Some people reasoned that the usual bear market lasts 2-3 years and they thought in March it was about that time which seems reasonable. 2008 was still obviously too early for a bottom.
So my question for Neke, and many others, is how come he did not feel March was the bottom? Why get out of the market right now when history clearly demonstrates that the November to April are the best times to trade?
There is some logic in it. I did check back during the crash of the 1930s and someone who used the November to April trading system would have eeked out some gain and missed the huge plunges of the era.
This is just constructive talk and questions designed not only to make Neke think, but everyone else think as well. So far, I have seen excuses why you missed the bottom, but no one really blames themselves. If your occupation or semi-occupation is "trader" then you should be expert enough to see these things coming. How come ordinary people with no trading experience saw it? Just something ask and ponder yourselves so these mistakes will not be made again in the future.
By the way, every year is a great year to get in on something going up. I see quite a few 2-3 dollar stocks out there that have the potential to jump 200-500% in the coming times. In no way do I think this is over. Every year there are stocks that jump up in multiples, you just have to be expert enough to find them. I will give you one good one and that is QTWW. What if the United States Army decides to use the diesel hybrid engines in all of their vehicles and has QTWW make them? The Army sunk 15 billion dollars in just designing and making the Bradley and they could certainly pour a lot of money into that company where the stock could quadruple in very little time.
Quote from retaildaytrader:
There were many people I knew back in March that were asking me how to open an account on TDAmeritrade. For example, a female doctor asked me to assist her with opening an account and some basic instruction on trading. She knew absolutely nothing about charts, strategies or any of this business. She saw that the market was at a bottom and got in on some mining stocks like TCK and some foreign etfs like FXI.
Quote from retaildaytrader:
By the way, every year is a great year to get in on something going up. I see quite a few 2-3 dollar stocks out there that have the potential to jump 200-500% in the coming times. In no way do I think this is over. Every year there are stocks that jump up in multiples, you just have to be expert enough to find them. I will give you one good one and that is QTWW. What if the United States Army decides to use the diesel hybrid engines in all of their vehicles and has QTWW make them? The Army sunk 15 billion dollars in just designing and making the Bradley and they could certainly pour a lot of money into that company where the stock could quadruple in very little time.
you guys
You guys are all small time. My account went to 3.5 million in the first week of the year. I started the year with 8 million.
Quote from retaildaytrader:
If you had just sunk it all into BIDU or APPL at the start of the year then you would be up more then you are now.
__________________
'Not by might nor by power, but by My Spirit,' Says the LORD.
Thanks Neke for replying directly to my posts.
If you read again what you quoted, I never said 6-figures daily. But if you are putting on say 20K shares of GRMN on earnings day, you are most certainly going for a 5-figure trade (as I recall GRMN had about a 7 or 8 pt range that day including premarket). Given the names you trade and the size at which you trade them, even one position at a time, you should not be too impressed with say a 50K gain on the week, given the volatility. Or put it this way: do you think you can achieve the same numbers if you were limited to 2000 shares maximum on each position? If not, how close do you think you would come?
I realize that I am only focusing on your largest gains/losses for the week, so maybe that skews my view of how you trade. But I'm wondering whether you only get into position sizes that large when you are averaging down into losers? You need to be very careful about distinguishing between a real edge and leverage bailing you out. I've been through this realization several times; clues that it's more buying power than edge reveal themselves in the pattern of your wins/losses. Are one or two trades/days making your week/month, so to speak, while the rest cancel each other out? Do your biggest positions taken result in the biggest profits? Or are they usually just avg winners/outright losers? I know for most position/swing traders it's one or two big winners that usually make their months or even years, but as an intraday trader you should achieve a much higher level of consistency.
The coin flip argument about a false edge not being able to survive leverage is specious; trading is just not comparable to a series of 50:50 or 45:55 etc propositions -- percentages are only valid in hindsight. You have to dig right down to the nitty gritty of WHY you've put on the trades you did, and whether those REASONS hold and will continue to hold in the future. If you say you are mostly a discretionary trader, then you can really throw the coin flip stuff out the window -- the whole issue just cannot be quantified in that way with any accuracy for future performance. But IF you can say to yourself "ok [blank] is why my trading works; [blank] are the people I'm making my money off of and whom I will continue to take money from" etc, then you should have much greater confidence in your past projecting into the future.
Lastly: are you really trading these kinds of stocks through a retail broker (Ameritrade) while holding a full-time job? Now that much is impressive in itself.
Quote from illiquid:
Thanks Neke for replying directly to my posts.
Given the names you trade and the size at which you trade them, even one position at a time, you should not be too impressed with say a 50K gain on the week, given the volatility. Or put it this way: do you think you can achieve the same numbers if you were limited to 2000 shares maximum on each position? If not, how close do you think you would come?
Quote from neke:
If limited to 2000 maximum per position, same number of trades, you should not achieve the same result. However, if you have 10 X 2000 positions instead of 1 X 20000, there is no reason not to achieve a similar return with reduced volatility, assuming a similar edge on your trades.
Leverage is not an edge. I don't know how else to illustrate it. You can be bailed out in the short-run, but my example was meant to show that the longer you trade the less likely it is that your result is a fluke if using leverage the way it is granted by the brokers.
If a hedge fund has 2 trades out of say 20 making their year, I do not see why someone having 2 trades of out 20 making their week is any different. Back out my automated trades which are made with small size, you are probably looking at 15 discretionay trades on average a week. I have said it repeatedly I do not make 1000 trades a week: it is not my style.
I used the coin toss analogy because it is the simplest and best I can think of. If you are are making assertions like being "bailed out by leverage" or presenting statements on quantitative metrics as facts, you've got to be able to back those up with sound mathematical reasoning. If that analogy is not a good one, I am waiting for your model that explains how leverage is an edge in the long run. I am irked when people present assertions that do not stand the test of logic, and make no effort to prove them.
Weekly Update for week 45/50 ended 11/21/2009
Flattish week, up 4.6K(0.8%). Made it Tues/Wed, gave it all back on Thurs, and eked out a little gain on Fri.
Still planning what my trading next year should look like. I am increasingly looking at incorporating more swing trades into the equation. I have sadly missed out on many multi-day moves while getting out with little gains for the day. Of course I know that increases the risk profile, but I will see what formula to adopt in position sizing for those trades, given all the points to consider: not tying down capital and missing other opportunities, keeping the overall risk exposure in check, and not choosing too long a timeframe for my patience.
code:
Opening Balance: 580,271 Net gain for the week 4,571 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 584,842 Number of Trades 23 Number of Profitable Trades 14 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 11/21/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 264,778(Up 82.7%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 584,842 Number of Trades 1200 Number of Profitable Trades 760 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE PNEWB 2009-11-17-10-24-14 2009-11-17-15-39-11 20000 76570 89000 12147 PCLN PUT NEMWK 2009-11-18-09-45-29 2009-11-18-10-11-48 30000 50100 60094 9582 NEM PUT ----------------------------------------------------------------------- DKS 2009-11-19-09-19-22 2009-11-19-10-27-50 30000 677057 665550 -11595 SHORT NQWD 2009-11-19-10-52-23 2009-11-19-14-29-58 100000 95000 81000 -15323 INTC PUT
Quote from neke:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DKS 2009-11-19-09-19-22 2009-11-19-10-27-50 30000 677057 665550 -11595 SHORT
NQWD 2009-11-19-10-52-23 2009-11-19-14-29-58 100000 95000 81000 -15323 INTC PUT
Weekly Update for week 46/50 ended 11/28/2009
Ugly week, down 22K (3.8%).
Should have stayed away from those SPY calls. Lately I have been having the raw end of those trades, and I should keep off them, except the individual stocks are not setting up frequently enough.
code:
Opening Balance: 584,842 Net loss for the week -22,041 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 562,801 Number of Trades 12 Number of Profitable Trades 7 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 11/28/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 242,737(Up 75.8%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 562,801 Number of Trades 1212 Number of Profitable Trades 767 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE FYNLF 2009-11-23-11-02-00 2009-11-23-14-13-24 40000 107000 96800 -10744 SPY CALL SWGLE 2009-11-27-11-00-13 2009-11-27-12-58-32 80000 210833 201935 -9964 SPY CALL ---------------------------------------------------- DLTR 2009-11-24-09-36-20 2009-11-24-09-41-29 5000 253500 256650 3129 LONG DLTR 2009-11-24-09-49-51 2009-11-24-10-12-51 12000 618078 623338 5202 SHORT
Weekly Update for week 47/50 ended 12/02/2009
Will be out of town from tomorrow for six days, and will not trade, so ending my week earlier.
Good week, up 35K(6.3%). Will fill in the details when I am back.
Weekly Update for week 47/50 ended 12/02/2009
This is just to post the details for the 3-day week for me for wk 47 earlier mentioned. High winning percentage making up for lack of outsized gain.
code:
Opening Balance: 562,801 Net gain for the week 35,484 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 598,285 Number of Trades 19 Number of Profitable Trades 14 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 12/02/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 278,221(Up 86.9%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 598,285 Number of Trades 1231 Number of Profitable Trades 781 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE SNTS 2009-12-02-09-34-32 2009-12-02-09-54-58 40000 214430 226200 11723 SHORT GES 2009-12-01-09-36-49 2009-12-01-14-59-54 20000 831992 839288 7226 SHORT FHZXQ 2009-12-02-10-05-26 2009-12-02-12-23-35 20000 51786 58400 6339 FCX PUT ------------------------------- NEMXK 2009-12-01-10-35-08 2009-12-01-15-16-55 20000 33200 31800 -1675 NEM PUT QZNXH 2009-12-02-10-05-44 2009-12-02-15-46-33 66000 254525 249408 -6023 AMZN PUT QZNXG 2009-12-01-10-39-30 2009-12-01-15-59-37 40000 118200 111855 -6896 AMZN PUT
Weekly Update for week 48/50 ended 12/11/2009
An OK Week, up 17k (2.8%).
Traded only Wed-Fri, as I was away the first two days of the week. Not much happening in the market for me. Just trying to stay clear of major pitfalls as I wrap up the year.
code:
Opening Balance: 598,285 Net gain for the week 17,022 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 615,307 Number of Trades 12 Number of Profitable Trades 6 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 12/11/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 295,243 (Up 92.2%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 615,307 Number of Trades 1243 Number of Profitable Trades 787 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE RNWK 2009-12-09-09-30-05 2009-12-09-10-16-10 60000 233320 244407 11038 SHORT DAL 2009-12-11-13-31-24 2009-12-11-14-17-46 40000 447823 454739 6848 SHORT ----------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 2009-12-09-09-35-27 2009-12-09-11-12-38 9000 1182140 1178112 -4108 LONG
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 48/50 ended 12/11/2009
An OK Week, up 17k (2.8%).
Traded only Wed-Fri, as I was away the first two days of the week. Not much happening in the market for me. Just trying to stay clear of major pitfalls as I wrap up the year.
code:
Opening Balance: 598,285 Net gain for the week 17,022 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 615,307 Number of Trades 12 Number of Profitable Trades 6 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 12/11/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 295,243 (Up 92.2%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 615,307 Number of Trades 1243 Number of Profitable Trades 787 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE RNWK 2009-12-09-09-30-05 2009-12-09-10-16-10 60000 233320 244407 11038 SHORT DAL 2009-12-11-13-31-24 2009-12-11-14-17-46 40000 447823 454739 6848 SHORT ----------------------------------------------------------- AMZN 2009-12-09-09-35-27 2009-12-09-11-12-38 9000 1182140 1178112 -4108 LONG
__________________
HOW MUCH IS ENOUGH?
Bud Fox
Wall Street
Good work, man. KEEP IT UP.
Nice work. I peak in once in a while. Great attitude about losses and learning from them. That's trading. You are kickin a. Don't understand ameritrade but who cares. All good
__________________
John
Great job Neke, Only reason I've ever peeked at elitetrader is usually to check your progress. I started to check your journals' out since last year. I'm happy with what you are doing, and you are very good at it. Keep up the good work and I hope to see you start another one of these next year. I feel it helps you out as well. Shoot for the stars man.
Take care,
Fermin
Weekly Update for week 49/50 ended 12/19/2009
Awful week, down 45K (7%). What a bad way to end the year (with a week remaining)! If the ratio of winning trades (18 of 23) was an indication of profitability, it should have been a great week, but alas the diaster happened on Monday.
I should not have gotten out of bed on Monday. Bought 300 XOM 70 CALL on Monday morning after the announced acquisition of XTO, thinking the market was overreacting. The stock moved against me, and I averaged in another 300, then another 300... until I had 1500 contracts, at an average of 1.14. The stock did not look up, and I exited @ 0.67 average, losing 72K. I was tired, bitter, and disgusted. Had also bought 800 Visa 85 Calls following the upgrade which in my disgust I dumped for a loss of 23K (Should have at least broken even holding on till end of day not to talk of holding till today, but such was my disgust I just wanted to go alone and sulk). When I closed the positions, I was down 100K for the day and for the week.
Glad I made some back through consistent gains the rest of the week (Had only 2 small losing trades the rest of the week).
It is difficult to put a rational face on the XOM trade. The endless averaging in was uncalled for, I ignored the risk for an expiration week, the spacing of the prices was abysmal - it was sheer inability to accept even a small adverse move. Given the average price in the underlying XOM was probably 70.70 on entry, and 69.70 on exit, it is disheartening to see a 12% loss of account from a mere 1.4% adverse move on the stock, yet I have had moves of 2-4% in my favor in the underlying and yet I haven't made that much money on a trade this year: can't get myself to add to a non-losing position.
Enough of the moaning. Looking forward to next year.
code:
Opening Balance: 615,307 Net loss for the week 44,730 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 570,577 Number of Trades 23 Number of Profitable Trades 18 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 12/18/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 250,513 (Up 78.2%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 570,577 Number of Trades 1266 Number of Profitable Trades 805 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE HJQXJ 2009-12-15-10-19-57 2009-12-15-12-43-18 10000 95695 105000 9158 FSLR PUT AMD 2009-12-16-09-31-10 2009-12-16-09-36-34 100000 913128 921598 8419 SHORT WY 2009-12-15-09-30-42 2009-12-15-09-48-50 6000 269600 277532 7897 SHORT ------------------------------------ VLQ 2009-12-14-10-06-05 2009-12-14-12-22-27 80000 67976 45919 -23126 V CALL XOMLN 2009-12-14-09-31-24 2009-12-14-13-08-35 150000 171406 101020 -72423 XOM CALL
You got nerves of steel, but you also have problems accepting losses. A possibly explosive mixture. But good job, and hope you another great year. I havn't read your whole journal, but just a few posts. I'll probably look more into it this weekend, but can you describe your trading style?... break outs.. forks... indicators?.... tape reading.. etc
thanks
Kon
Awesome job neke. Happy Holidays and New Year! You need to take time off to enjoy yourself and reduce your stress after your year. Great trading and comeback from earlier this year. Never give up!
Good job neke.
Looks like you might be catching up with me next year.
Good Luck
__________________
"All right, they're on our left, they're on our right,
they're in front of us, they're behind us...they can't get away this time."Gen Chesty Puller
Neke, you erred humanly. Very simple to fix, stick to the script. You will eventually. I suggest you backtest what you would have if you hadn't taken the outsized risks that turned into losers. If you calculate that, I'm sure you'll determine it's a net detriment. Run an experiment next year to see how you do strictly taking setups that meet your criteria for a month. Monk like discipline has done wonders for my returns. Good job this year. Enjoy the holidays.
Wilt
This is the second year that I've really enjoyed following your posts, Neke.
To be frank, it has been inspirational to read - both to see you do so well and to keep posting despite the set backs that you've occasionally encountered.
I'm looking forward to next year's thread as well.
Happy Christmas
Hey Neke, nice returns this year, but too much needless risk cost you your goal. I think your idea of doing swing option trades next year is a good one.
Wow, 1500 contracts! Imagine if you bought 1500 contracts on a big momo stock, for example POT $120 puts on 12/10 when it stage a failed breakout through major resistance, and put in a .50 cent stop (since you're willing to lose $75K on a trade). Yesterday you could've collected a cool $2,000,000.
Because you have a large account and significant intraday margin you're trying to use leverage as an "edge. When I found out I had a sim account available to me with IB this summer and started playing with it, I tried trading that way a few times. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you endure a huge drawdown just to end up near break even, and sometimes you bail at a far greater loss than your trading plan allows you to accept. Adding to a loser (unless it's a pre-planned position-build with a pre-planned stop loss) is a waste.
The only reason for trading this way is, the belief that price has to turn in your favor, thereby making you "right".
Quote from NoDoji:
Wow, 1500 contracts! Imagine if you bought 1500 contracts on a big momo stock, for example POT $120 puts on 12/10 when it stage a failed breakout through major resistance, and put in a .50 cent stop (since you're willing to lose $75K on a trade). Yesterday you could've collected a cool $2,000,000.
neke, great job. Don't beat yourself up over XOM. It made no sense what they did to it this week. Deal slightly dilutive to earnings, slightly accretive to cash flow. You can't predict a major asset allocation out of a stock like that. Some due to the arb, but made little sense. I too got caught up in it's contra moves this week. Good luck next year, hope you start a new thread.
-T
Quote from neke:
Nice! Hindsight is always 20-20. I shall look for that trade next year. Sorry to have lost you money on your 975K call.
Hey Neke!
You are one of the "real deal" here on ET.
Happy holidays and cut your losers short FASTER!
Cheers!
Quote from neke:
Bought 300 XOM 70 CALL on Monday morning after the announced acquisition of XTO, thinking the market was overreacting. The stock moved against me, and I averaged in another 300, then another 300... until I had 1500 contracts, at an average of 1.14. The stock did not look up, and I exited @ 0.67 average, losing 72K. I was tired, bitter, and disgusted.
Weekly Update for final week 50/50 ended 12/26/2009
Shocking week to end the thread. Down 68K (11.9%). Not sure what is happening but my plans are being wrecked left, right, center.
Started on Monday with a loss on POT, buying the 300 calls @ 5.20 average, and selling all later for a loss of 19K. Then got buried on Fri, shorting SNDK and averaging in. Not sure what is driving the stock up strong for the fourth day, ending the week +20% higher. I guess we shall find out in coming days/weeks.
Will pull out about 120K between now and year-end, leaving the balance to start the year and hopefully a new thread. Merry Christmas to all, and wish you a happy new year. I shall enjoy my holidays in spite of SNDK and XOM.
code:
Opening Balance: 570,577 Net loss for the week -67,787 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 502,790 Number of Trades 14 Number of Profitable Trades 6 Since Inception of Thread 01/10/2009 - 12/26/2009 Opening Balance: 320,064 Net gain (Less Margin Interest) 182,726 (Up 57.1%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 502,790 Number of Trades 1280 Number of Profitable Trades 811 Top/Bottom Discretionary Trades for the week TICKER ENTRY DATE/TIME EXIT DATE/TIME QTY PURCHASE AMT SOLD AMT GAIN/LOSS TYPE QCOR 2009-12-24-08-43-17 2009-12-24-12-17-10 20100 105667 113635 7917 SHORT SNDK 2009-12-23-09-34-32 2009-12-23-12-01-11 30000 841891 846715 4738 SHORT ------------------------------------------------- PYPAB 2009-12-21-09-34-22 2009-12-21-13-20-09 30000 156820 138320 -18943 POT CALL SNDK 2009-12-24-09-38-06 2009-12-24-12-47-55 40000 1196626 1154715 -41982 SHORT
from your equity curve, the fact you are constantly prone to sudden major losses, says that your defensive money management methods may need a lot of work. THAT is what you need to work on in 2010.
Then got buried on Fri, shorting SNDK and averaging in. Not sure what is driving the stock up strong for the fourth day, ending the week +20% higher. I guess we shall find out in coming days/weeks.
Literally, hpq, sndk, aapl, amzn, msft.......it didn`t matter.....what was it 3 staright days of 15 plus naz days.....naz even pulled dow s&p up for week.............but this is what the hedge funds coordinated and conspired to do during this small window while nobody was trading, and right after options expiration.....literally, every night the nq futures would start up .75 and build..........wallstreet corruption at its finest..........then cnbc says apple moved by tablet..............please.......aaple was moved like all the tech stocks......b/c it is easier to move these names in illiquid markets.
i look for big givebacks in january, especially after macworld.
Aim:
Taking 320K to 3.5million by Year End 2009
Reality:
Took 320K to 0.5million by Year End 2009
Still some good trading in there, you almost tripled the account from its low to its peak, in just a few months.
Its always good to aim high. But i think 400% a year should be about the most you should aim for. Then you have a much better chance of staying 'ahead of target' throughout the year if you beat it.
You manged to get:
800% in 2005.
93% in 2006.
187% in 2007.
447% in 2008.
57% in 2009.
Neke,
How does Canada tax investment gains?
Like the U.S. 15%, 25%?
Quote from neke:
Then got buried on Fri, shorting SNDK and averaging in. Not sure what is driving the stock up strong for the fourth day, ending the week +20% higher. I guess we shall find out in coming days/weeks.
Good trader averages about 25-35% of annual return. That's based on the 12-15% average passive historical market performance.
Neke,
Congratulations for the year. I know you don't quite reach your goal, but how many people can reach that goal? You should be happy with the result and be proud of yourself.
I am looking forward to seeing your new thread next year. I don't post often, but your thread is the only one I check every Friday.
BTW, I bought SNDK puts today. Just can't believe nobody wants to take the profit at this point.
Neke....
... I have very much enjoyed your threads the past two years. Your results are outstanding... keep "aiming high", cut your losers every day and I bet you continue to enjoy 50-200% gains for the rest of your life.
Merry Christmas!!! Be grateful for what you have achieved and go get'em in 2010.
Joe
__________________
Trend, Patience, Discipline
Quote from Red_Ink_inc:
Anyone remember when this was Neke's thread?
I though it would be fun to post a graph of neke's compounded returns, based on weekly percentages, from 2008 to 2009. Initial account value was 100,000.
Amazing job Neke!
Enjoy!
Quote from telozo:
I though it would be fun to post a graph of neke's compounded returns, based on weekly percentages, from 2008 to 2009. Initial account value was 100,000.
Amazing job Neke!
Enjoy!
Neke are you going to start a new journal?
Quote from konviction:
Neke are you going to start a new journal?
Many congratulations neke. This is one of the threads that has been a pleasure to read, and like many others, I wait for your update each weekend, keeping fingers crossed for you. All the best for 2010!
P.S.
This thread is best read with this song running in the background (Rocky theme song "Eye of the Tiger"):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoDKQYn-ANE
Neke, I do not know how you do it and many a times I had mini heart attacks when your account was swinging like a monkey on a branch. Even though you do not do trading "by the books" (with averaging down and sometimes huge losses), you nevertheless come out on top at he end of the year. Good luck to you and many happy returns.
P.S. Your journal is a bright star on otherwise bleak and increasingly juvenile sky of ET.
Good trading in the journal for the year. Your numbers are obvious better than most. Here's to luck on the new year and the new journal, but pls have realistic goals for the year. 10 fold increase may be a little optimistic.
Quote from cstfx:
Good trading in the journal for the year. Your numbers are obvious better than most. Here's to luck on the new year and the new journal, but pls have realistic goals for the year. 10 fold increase may be a little optimistic.
Just to recap for the last two weeks, did some trading, made 28K, withdrew 120K (99,000 end of last year and 21,435 end of day Friday), leaving 410K flat to start the new thread for the year:
Taking 410K to 4million by Year End 2010.
[EDIT BY MAGNA — At Neke's request this thread is closed. Please join him at his new one, link above.]
All times are GMT. The time now is 12:31 PM.