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Learning to read Price Action with P&F Charting
I came to ET about 2 years ago with the hope of picking up enough tidbits to become a day trader when I retire. I am definitely a type A personality, and I know I will go nuts if I don't keep my mind occupied. I think trading can keep my mind sharp for many years. I have been swing trading since 1997, but I wish I knew then what I know now.
Since I own my own business I currently have the best of both worlds. I can trade much of the day without affecting my business to any great length, and I have a great income coming in whether I am successful at trading or not. I am advantaged in that I don't have the pressures to succeed other than the pressures I place on myself. I have been successfully trading futures for only 5 months so I can't say I am , or my methods are the holy grail, but I do know at least for me my trading became consistently profitable when I allowed myself to trade with, and only with P&F charts.
I've tried just about every possible way to trade, but nothing gave me any indication of potential consistency. I did notice that some of the most successful traders only needed price to make money so I finally began pursuing charting techniques that would display price in such a way the eventually I would "get it" I looked at renko charts, tic charts, candlevolume charts, three line break charts, kagi charts, and finally point and figure charts.
This journal is being written to help those that want to learn how to read price with P&F charts. It's not going to be a "hey look what I made today journal". There will be no live trades called. I don't have time to work at the office, trade, and post. I will only answer questions during lunch, if I am available and in the evening.
If there is not any interest, I will stop the journal.
Re: Learning to read Price Action with P&F Charting
very interested
Quote from HolyGrail:
I came to ET about 2 years ago with the hope of picking up enough tidbits to become a day trader when I retire. I am definitely a type A personality, and I know I will go nuts if I don't keep my mind occupied. I think trading can keep my mind sharp for many years. I have been swing trading since 1997, but I wish I knew then what I know now.
Since I own my own business I currently have the best of both worlds. I can trade much of the day without affecting my business to any great length, and I have a great income coming in whether I am successful at trading or not. I am advantaged in that I don't have the pressures to succeed other than the pressures I place on myself. I have been successfully trading futures for only 5 months so I can't say I am , or my methods are the holy grail, but I do know at least for me my trading became consistently profitable when I allowed myself to trade with, and only with P&F charts.
I've tried just about every possible way to trade, but nothing gave me any indication of potential consistency. I did notice that some of the most successful traders only needed price to make money so I finally began pursuing charting techniques that would display price in such a way the eventually I would "get it" I looked at renko charts, tic charts, candlevolume charts, three line break charts, kagi charts, and finally point and figure charts.
This journal is being written to help those that want to learn how to read price with P&F charts. It's not going to be a "hey look what I made today journal". There will be no live trades called. I don't have time to work at the office, trade, and post. I will only answer questions during lunch, if I am available and in the evening.
If there is not any interest, I will stop the journal.
Re: Re: Learning to read Price Action with P&F Charting
Quote from gwac:
very interested
__________________
Spiral Out. Keep going.
HG, I'm definitely interested in learning more. I recently started using PnF charts and so far it has helped me become more consistent in intraday trading. I actually use PnF in conjunction with regular candlesticks and so far it has made a notable difference. It's alot easier to pick the trends and to stay out of chop. I only wish I had started utilizing it a long ago.
I look fwd to your contribution here. TIA.
I'll be back shortly. I have some honey-do's to do. We have lots of people coming over for Easter.
I am going to start at the very beginning so if you know nothing about P&F charts this will give you a basis to start your learning. Those that know something about P&F will find this extremely boring and I apologize in advance.
Before it is all through though I will actually give you some signals that are not in any book you will find, but I promise you they have high probabilities for success. Did I back test these signals? No I did not. I did forward test them though and they are doing great.
Now lets put up a chart of point values.
If you have a stock trading at the following prices the standard box size is given below. We need this box size so we know when there is a reversal. Typically we use three boxes for a reversal so if we have a box size of 1.00 we need a full 3.00 for a reversal.
As you can see, a stock selling at 5.00 and below will have a box size of .25 cents and a reversal of .75 (3 boxes)
So let's pretend we had a stock trading at 0. For every time the stock moves up .25 before it reverses .75 cents we will place an x in the current column. If this fictional stock went straight up to a dollar we would have a column of 4 x's. If it goes up to 1.25 before it reverses to .25 cents it will have 5 x's. When we have a reversal we use Zeros to represent a change in strength.
I am of the opinion(of course I could be wrong), that when you learn price action your edge in trading will never become obsolete. I love p&f charts because they are simple, yet effective. There are no indicators on the chart. No volume. No time bars. Just price. Price really tells you all you need to know. Now I know there are many ways to trade profitably so I am not going to say this is the only way, or even the best way. It is the best way for me, and it might be the best way for you.
OK, now let's see what that chart looks like if our zero stock went right up to 1.00 and then it reversed .75 cents back to .25 cents.
Was that a Bear Stearns chart???
Quote from HolyGrail:
OK, now let's see what that chart looks like if our zero stock went right up to 1.00 and then it reversed .75 cents back to .25 cents.
Quote from 5Pillars:
Was that a Bear Stearns chart???
It certainly could be.
Quote from 5Pillars:
Was that a Bear Stearns chart???
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I am with you on this (I hope we are both right) 
I look forward to learning about P&F charts, as of now I know very little. Thanks for starting this thread HG.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I am of the opinion(of course I could be wrong), that when you learn price action your edge in trading will never become obsolete.
That would be cool to see - thanks.
Quote from HolyGrail:
If someone will remind me I will show you how a P&F'er would have never been in BSC below 74.00
Now let's say the price moves up to 1.25 without going to zero. Our chart will now look like the chart below
I labeled it as a double top buy signal. This is one of the patterns where the standard book on Pnf will tell you to buy. Do I buy. It depends. Right now the only information we have is the bulls(x's) are winning the supply/demand battle at the moment.
Jimmy I hope to change your mind about trading it in futures. My main problem is having a platform that gives reliable pnf information on a timely basis. You always have to stay ahead of the game, and know exactly at what price it will reverse at all times.
Ok, before we go on, lets talk about trendlines. There is only one way to draw a trendline in pnf. There is no way you can get it wrong. All trendlines are 45 degree and in this case it would start at the bottom of the first x column and move up.
Great thread!!!
Another great reference on P&F is
The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure by
Du Plessis
http://www.amazon.com/Definitive-Gu...06221320&sr=8-1
Expensive, but worth it. Full color and 'heavy' text book production quality not the usual trade-book stuff. Good user reviews on Amazon as well.
Some great P&F resources also at:
http://www.answers.com/topic/point-and-figure-chart
Looking forward to this thread!
I also need to mention that when you daytrade you don't use the standard box sizes I mentioned earlier. We will get into that later, but those box sizes are for swing trading only. A daytrader has to be more nimble.
OK let's get some of the standard buy and sell signals out of the way.
The common patterns are called
Double top buy
double bottom sell
Triple top buy
Triple top sell
Traingle buy signals
Triangle sell signals
Bullish catapult
Bearish Catapult
Bullish Signal Reversed
Bearish Signal Reversed
Long Pole up
Long pole down
As Jimmy mentioned, I strongly suggest Point and Figure Charting by Thomas Dorsey. His latest book comes with a cd that is very helpful.
Thank you all for contributing. There are many sites available on the internet that probably explain the basics better than I can. I hope to give you all something that will prevent you from making large errors in trading, and at the same time give you some things that are not in any book.
For review here is a double top buy and sell signal.
OK, as a side note, I will now show how a Pnf'er would never be in bear stearns unless he was short. This chart had such a drop I cannot even get it all in one copy and paste.
On march 6, you have a double bottom sell signal at 74.00
Holy Grail RULE #1
NEVER EVER CONSIDER GOING LONG ON A STOCK(there is one exception) whose last X COLUMN HAS NOT EXCEEDED THE PREVIOUS X COLUMN.
here is some of the rest of bear stearns chart before the move to 2.00. You notice we have a column of x's that could not even make it to the 50% retracement level.
And there we have my only possible exception.
You can go long on any stock that has at least 20 boxes after the first reversal. So if a stock goes down 22 boxes you can buy it on the first reversal with a target of either .38 of the 22 boxes which would 6 boxes over the reversal, or you just trail your stop with three boxes until you get stopped out.
Also remember the opposite is true as well. If you see 20 straight x boxes it is time to go short on the first reversal.
Ok let's get these buy and sell signals out of the way.
Here is what a triple top or bottom sell signal looks like.
Here is a bullish catapult. I cannot emphasize enough that the rising bottoms are IMPERATIVE.
The bearish catapult. Again the LOWER TOPS ARE IMPERATIVE!!!
I look forward to your journal. My desire to learn P n F stems from learning to trade with price and volume like Wyckoff. I presume you are using a 3 box reversal instead of 1, although I haven't read all of your thread yet.
Having watched some videos on Dorsey P n F seems a very simple and logical way to trade.
Hi I am curious what charting tool youre using..
thanks
SS
Yes we are using the 3 box reversal. Welcome to the thread.
Ok here is one of the most powerful signals(catapults are as well along with triangles).
It is called the bullish and bearish signal reversed. Now the rules on this signal is that you must have seven TOTAL columns of lower lows and lower highs. So you can have 4 lower high columns and 3 lower low for a bearish signal reversed or vice versa for a bearish signal reversed.
Normally once that breakout occurs for the bottom or the top all hell breaks loose.
OK, now for another powerful signal that if you are wrong YOU CAN REVENGE TRADE AMD STILL MAKE MONEY.
It's the triangle, and occasionally you will get some false breakouts. but this is only occasionally and when that occasion occurs you are almost a guaranteed winner on the reversal.
OK, the long pole up and long pole down I am not going to show because I already mentioned it. It is at least 20 consecutive boxes up or down.
You buy on the reversal. So if a stock just went down to 25 dollars from at least 45 dollars without a reversal you can now start putting orders in at 28 dollars for a buy. If it goes down to 24 place your order at 27 etc.
This is not my favorite signal. Remember you are wrong if you get an immediate reversal that turns into a double bottom sell signal so your stop has to be 4 dollars. As I mentioned previously, your target minimim would be at least .38 of the number of boxes or 8-9 boxes.
OK now for something you will not read in any book. It is what I call the failed double top buy signal or the failed double bottom signal.
If you trade this signal only for the rest of your trading days I PROMISE YOU WILL BE PROFITABLE.
You have your great failed signals, and you have you SUPER GREAT failed signals.
Here is a SUPER GREAT failed double top.
OK, I am going to rest awhile and allow some of you to absorb this. Feel free to ask anything.
Looking forward to sitting down a little later and really digging in to this. Thanks HG.
__________________
Spiral Out. Keep going.
HG, Thanks very much for the Thread.
Since I have never used P&F charts before, what are the settings to plot on a daily chart. And can they be used for shorter time frames?
Thanks again.
I forgot to mention what the numbers in the columns represent in the charts. It just represents the month. You have 1-9 which represent January thru September, and you have a b c which is October, November, and December.
This is all very interesting. I've never taken the time to learn P&F, but I think I will now. Thanks.
Quote from sharp10:
HG, Thanks very much for the Thread.
Since I have never used P&F charts before, what are the settings to plot on a daily chart. And can they be used for shorter time frames?
Thanks again.
What are your average holding times for each position? Looks like they can be held for weeks if the movement is small.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Time is of no consequence on a pnf chart. A daily chart looks exactly the same as a monthly chart. The only difference is box sizes that you choose to use. If you use the standard box sizes a monthly chart will look the same as a daily chart.
You should not use the standard box size for intraday trading.
For example on ES the standard is a 20 point box. This is fine for daily or weekly trading but not for intraday.
On intraday, I actually use three chart box sizes. .5, .75, and 1.0
Quote from BosyBillups:
What are your average holding times for each position? Looks like they can be held for weeks if the movement is small.
A word of caution. Taking every P&F buy or sell signal will absolutely guarantee your failure. You have to trade signals with high probabilities. We will get into that as well.
WOW - a very civil and yet educational thread at ET, there is hope here after all!!! 
LOL!!!
HG - thanks for the BSC chart.
Quote from 5Pillars:
WOW - a very civil and yet educational thread at ET, there is hope here after all!!!
LOL!!!
great start - also very interested, started using p&f a few weeks ago and am still learning. Have had great success with intraday trades so far and using the charts to determine s&r. Will post my charts soon.
Recently there was a post on Elite trader that now was a good time to buy AMD. I disagreed, and any person using pnf charts would also.
Does that mean we have not bottomed in this stock? Not necessarily, but to me it is just not worth the risk.
Take a look at this chart.
We have 4 levels of down trends.
No x column has exceeded the previous x column since July of 2007.
No downtrend line has been broken.
The bottom line is it is too early to catch this falling kinife.
Care to explain this a bit more?
Quote from HolyGrail:
On intraday, I actually use three chart box sizes. .5, .75, and 1.0
There are four signals I really like to trade, but sometimes the signals do not appear on my main chart of .75, but they do appear on one of the other charts.
If they appear on the 1.0 chart I know I have to adjust my my target and stops higher. If they appear on the .5 chart I tighten my stops and target.
Many times you will first see a pattern on the .5 and it is repeated on the .75 and finally the 1.0.
I normally don't trade double bottom sell signals, but if I see a triple bottom on the .5, a double bottom on the .75 and a column of 0's on the 1.0 then I am shorting.
Quote from HolyGrail:
There are four signals I really like to trade, but sometimes the signals do not appear on my main chart of .75, but they do appear on one of the other charts.
If they appear on the 1.0 chart I know I have to adjust my my target and stops higher. If they appear on the .5 chart I tighten my stops and target.
Many times you will first see a pattern on the .5 and it is repeated on the .75 and finally the 1.0.
I normally don't trade double bottom sell signals, but if I see a triple bottom on the .5, a double bottom on the .75 and a column of 0's on the 1.0 then I am shorting.
Quote from sharp10:
Would you mind posting a ES intraday chart?
Thanks.
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so .5, .75 and 1.0 is the timeframe?
I agree on the double bottom sell. The odds are very great for a short term retrace on dbl bottom/top
Quote from HolyGrail:
There are four signals I really like to trade, but sometimes the signals do not appear on my main chart of .75, but they do appear on one of the other charts.
If they appear on the 1.0 chart I know I have to adjust my my target and stops higher. If they appear on the .5 chart I tighten my stops and target.
Many times you will first see a pattern on the .5 and it is repeated on the .75 and finally the 1.0.
I normally don't trade double bottom sell signals, but if I see a triple bottom on the .5, a double bottom on the .75 and a column of 0's on the 1.0 then I am shorting.
First I want to show you that it is important to take trades that have a decent risk reward.
Here is a current chart of aes. Would I have sold at the triple bottom sell signal? No I would not. Why? Because I might still be right but it could take me over 8 boxes before I knew I was wrong and there is support only 4 boxes away.
Quote from suedeuno:
so .5, .75 and 1.0 is the timeframe?
I agree on the double bottom sell. The odds are very great for a short term retrace on dbl bottom/top
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
When he says 1.00, 0.75 and 0.50 he is referring to the box size of the Pnf chart.
All charts have 3 box reversal (unless using another technique).
Quote from suedeuno:
so .5, .75 and 1.0 is the timeframe?
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PnF charting takes practice and hard work to know what trades to take, and which to pass on.
What they do for everyone immediately whether you understand them or not is NEVER GO LONG ON A STOCK IN A DOWNTREND UNTIL THE STOCK HAS AT LEAST SURPASSED ITS LAST X COLUMN.
Just that alone will prevent you from buying falling knives without a fighting chance for success.
Can you explain how you determine your targets and stops?
Quote from sharp10:
Thanks MandelbrotSet.
I'm just trying to figure out how to read it, since haven't used it before.
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Stops are easy. It is at the point where you are wrong. To be wrong a bullish pattern has to turn into a bearish pattern, or a bearish pattern has to turn into a bulish pattern.
If I buy a double top buy signal I am not wrong in that decision until a bearish pattern exists. You have to look at your previous o column to determine where it would become bearish. If that is a long way away you don't take the trade.
I just posted a chart of aes and said I would not take that trade at that point for that reason.
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
Price is price, regardless of the form in which it is displayed.
Holy Grail probably uses a multi-frame reference to take trades which agree on the higher and lower PnF range box frames.
If you mentally overlay a minute or range bar on the PnF chart, you will see what he is talking about (I have obviously been spending way too much time looking at charts over the past three years, LOL).
The key to trading success is using a method which makes sense to you, you're comfortable with and will allow you to make split-second decisions. If this is what works for Holy Grail, and he wants to share it with the ET Community, more power to 'em.
Good trading.
OK, here is the BEAUTY of pnf charts. Here is a chart of alcoa.
This chart has 8 years of information all on one chart. Every top of an x column is resistance, and every bottom 0 column is support.
This is why time is of little use to me. You couldn't see this amount of information on a monthly candlestick chart.
In terms of targets I base it on support and resistance, but I am a little strange in what I call support and resistance.
Many people say once support is breached it now becomes resistance and vice versa. I agree with that, but I feel it is not strong resistance and I pretty much discount it.
To me strong resistance is the last high of a completed x column, and any new x column will try to exceed the previous x column. So what is my mininum target? The high of the last x column.
Great thread - thanks, HG!
A quick question if I may, HG, or anyone else who cares to answer:
On intrady charts with bars, right now (due to learning something new) I'm using 1 min charts. On eSignal, I can set PnF charts up and specify Box Size and Reversal.
Let's say I want my box size to be .02 (2 cents). Now, would I just plug 3 into the box for Reversal?
Does this then mean price would have to move .06 (6 cents) for a Reversal?
Can yuo give me an example to clarify this if possible?
I'm a bit confused on this one, so any help would be great - thanks!
Quote from trader56:
Great thread - thanks, HG!
A quick question if I may, HG, or anyone else who cares to answer:
On intrady charts with bars, right now (due to learning something new) I'm using 1 min charts. On eSignal, I can set PnF charts up and specify Box Size and Reversal.
Let's say I want my box size to be .02 (2 cents). Now, would I just plug 3 into the box for Reversal?
Does this then mean price would have to move .06 (6 cents) for a Reversal?
Can yuo give me an example to clarify this if possible?
I'm a bit confused on this one, so any help would be great - thanks!
FYI, when ES is dead I will trade YM with a 6,8, and 10 point box size.
Quote from screenstruck:
Hi I am curious what charting tool youre using..
thanks
SS
Quote from HolyGrail:
Yes, if you set up each box size of .02 with a 3 box reversal you will only need .06 cents to change a column of x's to O's.
Now if you have a 95 dollar stock this would not be a good idea, but for a stock trading at 3 dollars this could be a viable box size for intraday.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Sorry I missed this. I use bulls eye broker to display my charts.
It is the only software I know of that keeps everything in proper box size where you can truly draw trends.
The bad thing is it cannot be used with a real time data feed as yet. I would love to find a program that looks like this in real time.
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Quote from trader56:
Thank yuo, HG!
So let's say my stock is trading at 3.10.
Then it goes up to 3.20, so I put 5 X's in a column going from 3.10 to 3.20 - an X for each .02, right?
Forgive my slowness here, but starting at 3.20, when and where would I start drawing O's if the price declines back down to 3.10?
Thanks HG (and everyone else) for yuor patience and help!
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
The "QuoteTracker & DTN IQ Feed" combo can give this too you in real time feed.
Stockcharts.com can give you the data on a delayed intra-day feed.
Quote from HolyGrail:
If the stock made it to a top of 3.20 you would have a reversal at 3 x .02 or .06 from the top which would be 3.14
Quote from trader56:
Ok, so then I put a O at 3.14, and add O's for every .02 down - so, 3.12, 3.10, etc?
Then let's say I get down to 3.02. Now price rises to 3.08, so I start adding X's at 3.08, and add another X for every .02 up?
Thanks again!
basically when you are doing it by hand you look at the current high and if at anytime the current price is 3 times your boxsize under the current high you now have a reversal of 3 boxes. A single box now gets added to that box if your box increment is reached before you have reversed.
Quote from HolyGrail:
a reversal is 3 boxes so for each reveral it is 3 0's on your example and a new zero for every .02 after that as long as you never get a .06 reversal in the next direction.
I can't even imagine trying to do this in real time by hand. Take a look at quote tracker and let it do it for you.
In your example yes, at 308 you would put 3 x's and an x thereafter that exceeds two cents before the next reversal.
Quote from trader56:
Ok, I know I'm trying yuor patience here, but at 3.08, at which would I start in adding the 3 x's ?
Sorry, it's late here so I'm having trouble with this, but am most grateful for the help!
And I can't imagine tis in real time either, but the eSgnal program can calculate it. I'm just trying to get straight at which point I change from X's to O's!
I know I am not making myself very clear so I will try again.
I trade with buttontrader which has a tick chart in front of me.
If I am trading on a 1 point chart I know that I can add 3 points to the lowest tick of the current column, and that is where I will have a reversal of o's to x's. On a .75 chart it will be 2.25 points away. On a .5 it will be 1.5 points away etc.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Yes, at 3.08 you have a reversal. You place the first x at 3.04
the second at 3.06, and
the third at 3.08
Quote from trader56:
Perfect! Thank yuo SO much for the help!
I'll play with this a bit, see if I have it, and annoy yuo with my understanding of the completed example tomorrow.
Happy Easter!
Investor R/T has P&F charting now - http://www.linnsoft.com/pnf/index.htm
Quote from HolyGrail:
Sorry I missed this. I use bulls eye broker to display my charts.
It is the only software I know of that keeps everything in proper box size where you can truly draw trends.
The bad thing is it cannot be used with a real time data feed as yet. I would love to find a program that looks like this in real time.
Quote from 5Pillars:
Investor R/T has P&F charting now - http://www.linnsoft.com/pnf/index.htm
Teamwork my friend -
T ogether
E veryone
A chieves
M ore
I have found DTN.IQ feed to work best with Inv R/T if that helps any.
Quote from HolyGrail:
That is exactly what I have been looking for. Thank you so much.
Now if you are not worried about critical volume data then you can use IB data (the IB snapshot data does not work good for the Inv R/T "VB" Volume Breakdown tool as a heads up).
I was hoping to use IB feed. Not good?
I added comments to my previous post - you can use IB data also.
Thanks again. I'm sold. I have already downloaded.
Goodnight to all.
5Pillar, HG, where r u from?
nice work men!
I am in Austin, TX
could you paraphrase your explanation of the "ultimate" pnf signal and the post on "why you wouldn't sell", i didn't really understand those two thanks?
also do you use volume at all when trading?
thanks, Happy EASTERRRRR
Well it is 5:30 am on Easter Sunday. For some reason I couldn't sleep. Hell who knows, it may be this thread. I really don't feel like I am explaining this very well so I will try to improve this in the future.
In terms of where I live, I live in Houston, Texas. So I guess we have at least two texans in this thread.
Someone asked about volume, and all I can say is volume is of no consequence on a pnf chart. Many believe that volume is an important aspect of trading, and it may be to them because they see something I fail to see. For me price is all you need. I've said this before. Volume has never entered my brokerage account.
I want to make a generalization about pnf charts that may help you understand the philosophy of them.
It may be helpful to look at a pnf chart like a football game. When the current column is an x column and you happen to be long you are on offense. The offense stays on the field until it turns the ball over (a reversal), or it surpasses the previous x column (your target). If it turns the ball over before it reaches the previous x column then it turned the ball over with good field position to the other team.
If right after that turnover the other team makes it past the last column of 0's they are now a team with the ball, they have good field position, and they now have momentum.
If you see a column of x's that are pretty much equal to the last column of 0's then you can assume that no team is in control of the game. Your mission as a trader is to observe which team is gaining the upperhand (momentum), and the potential strength of that gain.
Quote from staffpro:
could you paraphrase your explanation of the "ultimate" pnf signal and the post on "why you wouldn't sell", i didn't really understand those two thanks?
also do you use volume at all when trading?
thanks, Happy EASTERRRRR
There is also one thing I want to forward test, and I will start next week.
If I take a buy signal my inital stop is at the point where we have some kind of bearish signal. This changes the state of the chart from bullish to bearish.
What would happen if we had NO TARGET. Our target is the first bearish signal , or the end of day which ever comes first.
You would keep your original stop until you get a o column that is then reversed. You now move your stop to 1 box below that 0 column.
Now you do risk watching a profit turn into a loss, but as long as you are not risking anything more than your original stop loss it would seem to be a viable strategy.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I have to say it is my ultimate pnf signal because you will not find it in any book. So should you ever lose money on it you have me to blame and no one else.
What I am looking for is an uptrend.
The uptrend actually forms a double top buy signal.
As soon as that signal is given you place a sell order at one box lower than the previous 0 column. If it get's hit, hold on for the ride down because it will be fun.
Now I should mention the odds of a reversal from that point are not likely, and I may actually take the double top buy signal and go long if the next target is a decent risk reward, but should there be a reversal, it is going to be EXTREMELY STRONG.
Normally I place both orders at the same time to go long and short and cancel the one that doesn't get hit.
I should also mention it doesn't even have to give you a buy signal. If it equals the last x column and then reverses below the last 0 column you have yourself an excellent trade.
Ok, as threatened, I thought for my benefit certainly, but hopefully to help others who might have the same confusion, I'd run through my series for price changes and the PnF structure that accompanies them.
I have a .02 box size and a 3 box reversal.
My stock is trading at 3.10 and rises to 3.20.
I start a column of X's and put an X at 3.10, 3.12, 3.14, 3.16, 3.18, and 3.20.
Next day (bar) my stock reverses back down to 3.10
I start a new column of O's and put a O at 3.18, 3.16, 3.14. 3.12, and 3.10.
Next day (bar) my stock trades down from 3.10 to 3.02.
Here, I CONTINUE to column of O's, adding another O at 3.08, 3.06, 3.04, and 3.02.
Next day (bar) my stock trades back up from 3.02 to 3.08.
So, I start a NEW column of X's and put an X at 3.04, 3.06, and 3.08.
If price continues to rise without at least a 3-box reversal, I just keep adding to the column of X's. But, if I get a reversal by at least three boxes, then I start a new column of O's. The O's would continue in the same column unless I get another rise of at least 3 boxes, in which caes, I start a new column of X's.
Have I got it, HG?
Quote from trader56:
Have I got it, HG?
HG,
would you eventually talk a bit about how you trade on an intraday basis, like in the ES, or YM?
I am curious how you set your charts and what you think are the best signals.
Thanks again for this thread.
HolyGrail, back in 88 a close friend was using P&F to trade the S&P and he learned it from a friend of his who was a successful floor trader. At that time it was the way floor traders traded, and it sure worked then and it always will.
Yes, I will be posting charts of the es. Just not in real time unless we have such a slow day on Monday both in my office, and in the market. Those slow crappy days are going to come back someday.
I've had a number of people tell me that pnf charts were used by floor traders. That may or may not be good lol, but I think it is good.
As I said early in this thread. I truly beleive once you learn price action you never have to worry about your system becoming obsolete. I guess if pnf became too popular there could be groups fading the signals, but I am not not too concerned about that. And just like any other systems there are certain types of days where you could be buying the high and selling the low all day long.
I will return later this evening.
Quote from HolyGrail:
You are right on the money!!!!
Quote from yoohoo:
HolyGrail, back in 88 a close friend was using P&F to trade the S&P and he learned it from a friend of his who was a successful floor trader. At that time it was the way floor traders traded, and it sure worked then and it always will.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Yes, I will be posting charts of the es. Just not in real time unless we have such a slow day on Monday both in my office, and in the market. Those slow crappy days are going to come back someday.
I've had a number of people tell me that pnf charts were used by floor traders. That may or may not be good lol, but I think it is good.
As I said early in this thread. I truly beleive once you learn price action you never have to worry about your system becoming obsolete. I guess if pnf became too popular there could be groups fading the signals, but I am not not too concerned about that. And just like any other systems there are certain types of days where you could be buying the high and selling the low all day long.
I will return later this evening.
trader56, yip, drawing X's and O's on the back of fag packets and transferring them to graph paper at the EOD. The most unintensive type of trading I've seen. Box size allows you to be as active as you want.
Good job Holy...I look forward to reading more juicy stuff...thank you for sharing and taking the time to post your thoughts....
__________________
Freedom, I have much love for ya!!
I mentioned earlier when you use pnf for intraday trading you have to be aware of your potential setups BEFORE they materialize. With the current state of volatility you can miss some really great moves. When I trade es intraday I use 3 charts with different box sizes. I do this ONLY because there are few setups I want to trade. One setup may appear on one chart but not on another. I want to have as many good trading opportunities as I can during the day. My preference is to trade on the .75 chart
Under my normal trading, I am trying to get as many points as possible BEFORE there is a reversal. In doing so, I can be leaving many points on the table because the overall pattern may remain favorable even after a reversal.
This is why I mentioned you could decide to move your stops to one box below the last reversal. This will keep you in the trade longer. It will be up to you to decide on your strategy.
If you see a failed double top on a .5 chart you have to realize that the smaller box size is easily reversed and you cannot expect as much profit potential had that same signal appeared on the .75 chart. Now if I take the trade based on the .5, and the failed double top later appears on the .75 or at least some type of bearish signal appeared on the .75 , I will now base my target and stop on the information in the .75 chart.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I mentioned earlier when you use pnf for intraday trading you have to be aware of your potential setups BEFORE they materialize. With the current state of volatility you can miss some really great moves. When I trade es intraday I use 3 charts with different box sizes. I do this ONLY because there are few setups I want to trade. One setup may appear on one chart but not on another. I want to have as many good trading opportunities as I can during the day. My preference is to trade on the .75 chart
Under my normal trading, I am trying to get as many points as possible BEFORE there is a reversal. In doing so, I can be leaving many points on the table because the overall pattern may remain favorable even after a reversal.
This is why I mentioned you could decide to move your stops to one box below the last reversal. This will keep you in the trade longer. It will be up to you to decide on your strategy.
If you see a failed double top on a .5 chart you have to realize that the smaller box size is easily reversed and you cannot expect as much profit potential had that same signal appeared on the .75 chart. Now if I take the trade based on the .5, and the failed double top later appears on the .75 or at least some type of bearish signal appeared on the .75 , I will now base my target and stop on the information in the .75 chart.
I am working on that right now
so if this is to be done on a day to day basis it is probably better to do it with futures because you would have 3 charts open rather than 3 charts open for every single stock you are interested in leading to more chances to fail.????
Quote from staffpro:
so if this is to be done on a day to day basis it is probably better to do it with futures because you would have 3 charts open rather than 3 charts open for every single stock you are interested in leading to more chances to fail.????
P&F signification
Quote from HolyGrail:
I don't daytrade stocks, but if I did, I would use just one chart if I were trading many stocks simultaneously. The three charts would work ok, but it would be difficult to keep up with multiple charts on multiple stocks.
It is difficult for me to copy and paste something from ES as examples because I would have to manually cross off the results of setups so I am going to have to use stocks right now that have current setups.
Here is a chart for corning. It is a 1.0 chart. Right now we have a double bottom. If this were real time chart we would not be using a 1.0 to daytrade this stock so just pretend it is ES. We don't know if this stock is going to continue down. What we do know if this double bottom reverses we will probably have a strong signal.
We need three points for a reversal so a reversal will occur at 25.00. To get a double top buy signal it will need to get to 26.
So even though it has not reversed as yet we place an order to go long at 26.00.
our stop will be at 21.00 if the stock does have a reversal.
Re: P&F signification
Quote from ERIROY:
Somebody can help me.....P&F what is the signification of those 2 letters?
Let me make sure I understand the concept fully. You could also put in an order to go short at 24.00, as that would be a sell signal. Correct? (And if one order is placed, cancel the other, I assume.)
Quote from HolyGrail:
So even though it has not reversed as yet we place an order to go long at 26.00.
Quote from atonix:
Let me make sure I understand the concept fully. You could also put in an order to go short at 24.00, as that would be a sell signal. Correct? (And if one order is placed, cancel the other, I assume.)
Quote from atonix:
Let me make sure I understand the concept fully. You could also put in an order to go short at 24.00, as that would be a sell signal. Correct? (And if one order is placed, cancel the other, I assume.)
Here is a chart for Costco. As you can see this chart is potentially setting up for a bearish reversal signal. We have had 7 straight columns of lower highs and lower lows. Should this reverse to 67.00 it will probably move up substantially more.
What is more likely to happen is we will end up getting some other signal before this signal is reversed, but you still should be aware that a bearish signal reversed could be coming and look for an opportunity to go long on this stock on any bullish signal.
If you are a pattern trader it definitely looks like a pennant, but pennants are not automatically considered a buy signal in a pnf chart.
My last statement wasn't very clear. What I am basically saying is that if the bearish signal reversed does not materialize, I would still take ANY other signal to go long on this stock because it is above its trend line and the overall chart remains bullish. We would not enter this stock until a current x column exceeds a previous x column.
If you notice prior to these seven columns we did have my strongest pnf pattern. A failed double bottom breakout. After that failed breakout the stock moved up 12 dollars before there was a reversal. We would have had the potential to get 8 of those dollars.
in your opinion what is better to use the closing price or the high/low option?
thanks, awesome thread learned so much so far, thankyou so much
The charts I am showing you are based on close. I prefer to use high/low data. Just knowing the stock hit the price that would give it a new x or 0 is good enough for me.
Great question by the way.
OK, going to bed right now. It's been a long day. If you trade nothing but failed double bottoms or failed double tops I PROMISE YOU THAT YOU WILL BE PROFITABLE.
Quote from HolyGrail:
OK, going to bed right now. It's been a long day. If you trade nothing but failed double bottoms or failed double tops I PROMISE YOU THAT YOU WILL BE PROFITABLE.
__________________
...
Thanks Jimmy that is much appreciated.
I forgot to mention one thing on the costco double bottom failure.
We were in no man's land on the price. We were at new highs so I would have probably had a 3 point trailing stop on it which would have only yielded 4 or 5 dollars.
Well before I go to bed we can do a live trade for tomorrow.
J Crew. Symbol JCG
this stock is currently in a reversal off of a double bottom failure. this stock doesn't have much movement so I don't know how long it will take to move up, but it is a buy at 45.00
Good night and good trading.
Great info HG! Thanks for your time and effort.
Thanks HG for a great thread. Your good karma will be rewarded.
I am trying to become a day trader (paper trading at the moment. I am trying NQ. Z and ESTX50. I get very tired siting at the computer for long hours.When I am not there I always miss a great trade. So I want to have one or two trades a day. It seems this might be possible with P & F charts. Your advise and comments much welcome.
Thanks. Comments from anybody else is welcome as well. I use IB and QT . QT has p&f charting facility.
All replies much appreciated.
__________________
A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
Re: Learning to read Price Action with P&F Charting
Quote from HolyGrail:
I came to ET about 2 years ago with the hope of picking up enough tidbits to become a day trader when I retire. I am definitely a type A personality, and I know I will go nuts if I don't keep my mind occupied. I think trading can keep my mind sharp for many years. I have been swing trading since 1997, but I wish I knew then what I know now.
Since I own my own business I currently have the best of both worlds. I can trade much of the day without affecting my business to any great length, and I have a great income coming in whether I am successful at trading or not. I am advantaged in that I don't have the pressures to succeed other than the pressures I place on myself. I have been successfully trading futures for only 5 months so I can't say I am , or my methods are the holy grail, but I do know at least for me my trading became consistently profitable when I allowed myself to trade with, and only with P&F charts.
I've tried just about every possible way to trade, but nothing gave me any indication of potential consistency. I did notice that some of the most successful traders only needed price to make money so I finally began pursuing charting techniques that would display price in such a way the eventually I would "get it" I looked at renko charts, tic charts, candlevolume charts, three line break charts, kagi charts, and finally point and figure charts.
This journal is being written to help those that want to learn how to read price with P&F charts. It's not going to be a "hey look what I made today journal". There will be no live trades called. I don't have time to work at the office, trade, and post. I will only answer questions during lunch, if I am available and in the evening.
If there is not any interest, I will stop the journal.
Thanks for adding this, I was interested in what you'd say about profits on that trade. Do you use trailing stops with your stop moving to higher low method, or either-or?
Quote from HolyGrail:
We were in no man's land on the price. We were at new highs so I would have probably had a 3 point trailing stop on it which would have only yielded 4 or 5 dollars.
Re: Re: Learning to read Price Action with P&F Charting
Quote from Stealth Trader:
You sir, are a scholar and a gentleman. I'll read through the thread after market hours, but just wanted to mention great job.
st
P.S. I applaud your supreme tolerance for the village idiots that will no doubt show up!
Quote from atonix:
Thanks for adding this, I was interested in what you'd say about profits on that trade. Do you use trailing stops with your stop moving to higher low method, or either-or?
Also, getting away from the method a little, could you ballpark the risk you take per trade (most interested in intra-day futures)? As in, what money management do you use with this method of trading?
I understand what you're saying, but I don't think I was clear. I attached what I was meaning. Where do you move stops after you're in the black? (assuming my chart if right.)
Also, are all exits "stop outs", or will you have pre-defined exits?
Quote from atonix:
I understand what you're saying, but I don't think I was clear. I attached what I was meaning. Where do you move stops after you're in the black? (assuming my chart if right.)
Also, are all exits "stop outs", or will you have pre-defined exits?
sorry forgot the chart
JCG has been a good fill thus far.
Very clear. Thanks a lot.
Quote from HolyGrail:
sorry forgot the chart
HG,
let's assume you miss the entry on JCG.
What would you do then if anything, or you just let it go?
Thanks.
funny though if you use high/low data you get many more breakouts/signals but alot of false ones also, and in that case COST is a buy at 64 even not 67 with 1.0 box size/3reversal. ANd yeah i'm also wondering what is your course of action if you miss an entry, buy on a pullback maybe if the risk/reward looks good enough? Also, i know that stocks move independant of one another but HG how would you say your system or the pnf system fairs in general in downtrending markets? do you tighten your stops/ watch over everything more diligently?
Thanks HG, exciting day today, putting all my new knowledge to work for the first time.
edit: i also stumbled upon a website that ran a simulation and close data gathered more than double profits than high/low data over a 5 year period, very interesting.
I pulled the chart of JCG on stockcharts.com and show the breakout buy signal at $47.
Do I have that correct?
Thanks for the input.
Quote from sharp10:
I pulled the chart of JCG on stockcharts.com and show the breakout buy signal at $47.
Do I have that correct?
Thanks for the input.
thanks StaffPro.
I'm trying to plot same chart on my platform, but I am not sure why I'm not getting the same visual, even with the same settings: $1 and 3 box reversal.
Thanks.
Mind providing the link?
Quote from staffpro:
edit: i also stumbled upon a website that ran a simulation and close data gathered more than double profits than high/low data over a 5 year period, very interesting.
I don't have time to post right now but I wanted to mention something.
If you use a high/low chart then you must trade based on that chart. Since the high/low chart does NOT show a failed double bottom, I would not trade the stock.
I know that doesn't make sense, but all I am saying is the stock would not have even been on my radar because it did not meet the criteria.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I don't have time to post right now but I wanted to mention something.
If you use a high/low chart then you must trade based on that chart. Since the high/low chart does NOT show a failed double bottom, I would not trade the stock.
I know that doesn't make sense, but all I am saying is the stock would not have even been on my radar because it did not meet the criteria.
HG, others,
how do you scan for possible set ups that are forming?
For stocks that is.
Thanks.
Quote from sharp10:
HG,
let's assume you miss the entry on JCG.
What would you do then if anything, or you just let it go?
Thanks.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Hell, I even missed my own trade. NORMALLY, if I am using a daily chart I would have placed a conditional trade at greater than or equal to 45.00 the NIGHT before the trade with my broker.
I was so tired last night after being up since 5:30 am that I failed to do that.
Now to answer your question. My preference is to enter the trade no more than 1/2 of a box size from my trigger. Should the stock retrace today to 45.50 I would be a buyer. If not, I forget about it and move on to the next stock. There are always plenty of stocks that are giving buy or sell signals.
Quote from sharp10:
HG, others,
how do you scan for possible set ups that are forming?
For stocks that is.
Thanks.
cash S&P
nvm this post it was answered thanks
Quote from staffpro:
also wondering this, like how did you find jcg or cost just randomly typing in tickers and looking, or some kind of screener?
thankyou!
OK, now a trade for you scalpers who don't want to risk as much per trade.
Please note the attached chart as of 11:41 cdt. From left to right we have a .5, .75, and 1.0 chart. Please note that all charts were close to being bullish. We had a triple top on the .5, a double top on the .75, and a double top on the 1.0.
NONE OF THE CHARTS WERE ACTUALLY IN BUY MODE AT THIS TIME. So what to you do?
I find out what it would take for the smallest chart (the .5) to be put into buy mode. I KNOW that the .75 will trigger a 1/2 point higher than the .5. I split the difference and place a long order 1/4 of a point over the .5 chart trigger.
I also look at the possible failure of these tops, but I am not concerned with that trade yet because if the long trade moves it will move pretty quick. I have time to look at the short side if this trade fails.
On a side note, I did take this trade with an 8 tick target which was hit.
I don't necessarily like this trade because my buy point was actually the high of the day when it was hit. Whenever you buy into the high you have enormous chances for QUICK reversals. Even though the trade worked I would have felt better if we weren't near the highs. I may have even increased my target to 3 points.
I entered the trade with a stop two ticks below the last tick low which was would compute to 1358.50. I entered the trade at 1359.25 (missed the 1359 which was optimum) and exited at 1361.25.
Ok back to work and trading. Good Luck
Quote from sharp10:
I'll know if my platform is displaying these charts correctly by your answer. Thanks HG.
Quote from staffpro:
if your using high/low method then yes that is BUT you are also using .5 boxes for a 30$ stock and from my understanding that produces more signals so you gotta watch out (check out the 1box size chart), all the charts HG has been showing us so far are 1$ box size (depends on what the stock trades at) 3 box reversal, close data method
here is the chart for 1 box size/3rev looks like a setup for bearish signal reversed when we get another column of x's going
Thanks man.
Yes I did realize I was using that. Better off sticking to the $1 size box.
A nice Double TOP breakout happened today in GOOG. Pretty awesome move.
I guess I'm starting to get the basics, waiting on couple books to review more stuff.
Thanks HG for introduce me to this technique.
Quote from sharp10:
A nice Double TOP breakout happened today in GOOG. Pretty awesome move.
I guess I'm starting to get the basics, waiting on couple books to review more stuff.
Thanks HG for introduce me to this technique.
Quote from HolyGrail:
only have a few secs but I wanted to mention that you should also keep a journal of every trade you make so you can get an idea of the success rates of each pattern. Try to take screenshots of the trade right after you enter the trade. It is very helpful. I always name my target in the journal, and the total number of ticks from my entry I could have made if I stayed in the trade to the very top. I then analyze whether there was some way I could have predicted it going over my target(perhaps looking at a higher box chart?)
If any of this helps at least one trader then I will feel good about starting this journal.
Quote from HolyGrail:
If any of this helps at least one trader then I will feel good about starting this journal.
Quote from staffpro:
count me too!, you have finally allowed me to discover a method where i am not constantly saying to myself "huh?" or "i wonder what next", love it hope to learn it more in depth over the coming time.
agree with sharp the GOOG move today was nice, i noticed the initial buy yesterday actually.
was the target strictly based on price resistance?
Quote from HolyGrail:
OK, now a trade for you scalpers who don't want to risk as much per trade.
Please note the attached chart as of 11:41 cdt. From left to right we have a .5, .75, and 1.0 chart. Please note that all charts were close to being bullish. We had a triple top on the .5, a double top on the .75, and a double top on the 1.0.
NONE OF THE CHARTS WERE ACTUALLY IN BUY MODE AT THIS TIME. So what to you do?
I find out what it would take for the smallest chart (the .5) to be put into buy mode. I KNOW that the .75 will trigger a 1/2 point higher than the .5. I split the difference and place a long order 1/4 of a point over the .5 chart trigger.
I also look at the possible failure of these tops, but I am not concerned with that trade yet because if the long trade moves it will move pretty quick. I have time to look at the short side if this trade fails.
On a side note, I did take this trade with an 8 tick target which was hit.
I don't necessarily like this trade because my buy point was actually the high of the day when it was hit. Whenever you buy into the high you have enormous chances for QUICK reversals. Even though the trade worked I would have felt better if we weren't near the highs. I may have even increased my target to 3 points.
I entered the trade with a stop two ticks below the last tick low which was would compute to 1358.50. I entered the trade at 1359.25 (missed the 1359 which was optimum) and exited at 1361.25.
Ok back to work and trading. Good Luck
Quote from sharp10:
The question is, what kind of STOP would you need?
so according to the current daily p&f, the SPY and the DIA still have not broken the down trend?
I hope some of you trading es caught the nice failed double top on the .5. It then created a double bottom on the .75 and 1.0. The .5 is the chart on the left.
Me like a jerk had his button trader set for a scalp instead of a normal target and got stopped out after 3/4 points. Yes, it's true, I do make mistakes.
Remember if you are trading Google based on daily charts for swing trades you need to use a 10 point box size above 500 and a 5 point boxsize below 500 so it gets complicated. This is also why I use bulls eye trader become it does this for you automatically.
What I would do is look at the straight downtrend. Take .4 times the number of boxes in the downtrend and assume google will reach that for a retracement level.
We had a 20 box downtrend. 20 * .4 is 8 boxes. 20 * .5 is 10 boxes if we have a 50% retracement. Based on that we have already hit our target and I would be out of the stock. It is still in a downtrend. Now if we have a pullback and then a new double top buy signal I would consider buying it again.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I hope some of you trading es caught the nice failed double top on the .5. It then created a double bottom on the .75 and 1.0. The .5 is the chart on the left.
Me like a jerk had his button trader set for a scalp instead of a normal target and got stopped out after 3/4 points. Yes, it's true, I do make mistakes.
goog.1 box reversal with horizontal counts and trendlines.$10 box size.you can quite clearly see the action.there is a cluster at 470-480
On es right now I am sitting on a buy at 1354.25 and a sell at 1350.75.
goog 5$ box size.1 box reversal.horizontal counts.price in a triangle.could break either way
The trade was just a scalp for two points and it worked. All charts again were in agreement so I just waited for the .5 to trigger.
I also just got into JCG at 45.67
Quote from sandygray66:
Terrific thread HG. I started following P&F charts on ER2 last summer, using entry on retracement to a moving average.
Regarding the failed DT on the .5, will you still take the short, if the DT is broken by more than one X? In this case, if price had gone to 1360.5 or more, instead of just to 1360.0, would you have still taken the short at 1357.5?
Thank you.
Quote from HolyGrail:
No I would not. Based on my experience it needs to surpass by only box or be equal to the last column to get the best trade.
Welcome to the thread, and it is nice to see a fellow P&F trader. I knew there had to be some of you out there.
, since you use 3 charts for ES scalps, 1 box DT reversal short entry on the 1.0, would be a 2 box DT entry reversal on the .5. Would you therefore, not take 1 box DT reversal short entries on the 1.0 x 3 chart, since it would be a 2 box on the 0.5 x 3?
Quote from HolyGrail:
Well before I go to bed we can do a live trade for tomorrow.
J Crew. Symbol JCG
this stock is currently in a reversal off of a double bottom failure. this stock doesn't have much movement so I don't know how long it will take to move up, but it is a buy at 45.00
Good night and good trading.
Quote from trader56:
Just got back to the tread, HG.
A quick question:
Is this the Double Bottom failure at 34.00 or the most recent at 40.00?
Assumming the two points I'm looking at are, in fact, the double bottoms.
Thanks again!
Quote from sandygray66:
I've done several searches over the past year to see what people have discussed about P&F charts, but found very little.
To further complicate my question to you
HG
Thank you so much for your time and willingness to share what you've learned!
Quote from HolyGrail:
Remember if you are trading Google based on daily charts for swing trades you need to use a 10 point box size above 500 and a 5 point boxsize below 500 so it gets complicated. This is also why I use bulls eye trader become it does this for you automatically.
What I would do is look at the straight downtrend. Take .4 times the number of boxes in the downtrend and assume google will reach that for a retracement level.
We had a 20 box downtrend. 20 * .4 is 8 boxes. 20 * .5 is 10 boxes if we have a 50% retracement. Based on that we have already hit our target and I would be out of the stock. It is still in a downtrend. Now if we have a pullback and then a new double top buy signal I would consider buying it again.
Quote from staffpro:
well if you did the "one below last o" column strategy HG mentioned then 416 would be your initial stop and then i guess as it moves up you would trail up always 4 boxes behind?
for a 400$ stock like goog i am using 4boxsize/3rev
ohh and as a target are we looking at the high of the last x column in that case 530?
P & F Trading
I have been trading p&f for a while now. When I discovered it I did a search on this and several other forums and when I found almost nothing I knew I was on to something.
Holy grail, thank you for starting this thread.
I trade off the .50 x3 for intraday trades. I usually only trade triple tops and bottoms. I particularly like the breakouts when there are four or more o's or x's lined up.
I trade a sort of combination scalp and runner plan. I use trade lots in multiples of three. In volitile or trending markets I take the first third off at one point. I take off the next third at two points. I then trail the stop one box under or over each pullback until the runner is stopped. I always move the stop to the entry after the second target is hit so I have a free runner. I have had trades pay off up to twelve points using this method. It does get a little scary since you never know when a pullback will end but large runners on occasion are what you need to have great profits trading.
When the markets slow down or are ranging instead of trending I simply reduce the first two targets to 1/2 point and one point. I find that the only double tops I can safely trade usually are the first pullback after a big news event I will then use the same targets and trailing stop methods. most of the time you get three thrusts on news so when you get in the area of the third thrust and are around the top of the previous column of x's you need to start looking for the exits but that will usually be six or seven points.
I use high low so my charts may not match those of you who use closing charts but I like the extra entry options. You seem to develop a sixth sense about the ones that will be successful after a little chart time. The ES fired off at least four triple tops that were successful this morning. I had $600 in profits by 10:30 eastern this morning.
These entries are primarily breakout entries so if you all will take a little time to start looking at metals and soft commodities you will be pleasantly surprised at how much better these markets are for P$F trading. You need a strong stomach for these markets, however they often trend longer and harder and those are excellent traits for P$F entry signals.
Again thank you HG for starting this I have been hoping to get into a discussion and learn some more strategies.
Re: P & F Trading
Quote from howardcsh:The ES fired off at least four triple tops that were successful this morning.
OK, I am starting to get a lot of PM's about targets. PNF does not manage your trade, you do. There are many ways to determine a target.
Say you are in an uptrend and you get a failed double top. The real question of target price is one that YOU have to answer. PNF basically just tells you the most likely direction.
What I do is ask myself what is the current trend of the day? If the trend is up and it hasn't at least retraced to 38% then chances are it will retrace to at least that level. You have to ask yourself am I willing to hold my original stop to my target or am I going to panic when my winning trade goes below my entry or turns into a loser? If you are not going to panic then you can set your first target to the 38% retracement level(start a trailing stop to breakeven after reaching 38%) and then have your final target at 50%. This is your choice.
You can also draw a channel of the tops and bottoms and assume that it could make it to the bottom of the channel.
Get a feel for what you are trading. If you trade the same stocks all of the time you can easily get a feel for those stocks.
Or you can do what I am currently doing. Keep a journal. Know what you can expect from each trade based on the current trend, and the market volatility etc. For example, in this high volatility market I have determined I can reliably get 6-8 ticks when scalping countertrend. I can get 12-16 tics going with the trend.
If volatility changes these targets may be cut in half very easily.
Welcome to the thread howardcsh. We look forward to more of your insight. the more people we have here that know something about PNF the better off we will all be.
Re: P & F Trading
Quote from howardcsh:
I have been trading p&f for a while now. When I discovered it I did a search on this and several other forums and when I found almost nothing I knew I was on to something.
Holy grail, thank you for starting this thread.
I trade off the .50 x3 for intraday trades. I usually only trade triple tops and bottoms. I particularly like the breakouts when there are four or more o's or x's lined up.
I trade a sort of combination scalp and runner plan. I use trade lots in multiples of three. In volitile or trending markets I take the first third off at one point. I take off the next third at two points. I then trail the stop one box under or over each pullback until the runner is stopped. I always move the stop to the entry after the second target is hit so I have a free runner. I have had trades pay off up to twelve points using this method. It does get a little scary since you never know when a pullback will end but large runners on occasion are what you need to have great profits trading.
When the markets slow down or are ranging instead of trending I simply reduce the first two targets to 1/2 point and one point. I find that the only double tops I can safely trade usually are the first pullback after a big news event I will then use the same targets and trailing stop methods. most of the time you get three thrusts on news so when you get in the area of the third thrust and are around the top of the previous column of x's you need to start looking for the exits but that will usually be six or seven points.
I use high low so my charts may not match those of you who use closing charts but I like the extra entry options. You seem to develop a sixth sense about the ones that will be successful after a little chart time. The ES fired off at least four triple tops that were successful this morning. I had $600 in profits by 10:30 eastern this morning.
These entries are primarily breakout entries so if you all will take a little time to start looking at metals and soft commodities you will be pleasantly surprised at how much better these markets are for P$F trading. You need a strong stomach for these markets, however they often trend longer and harder and those are excellent traits for P$F entry signals.
Again thank you HG for starting this I have been hoping to get into a discussion and learn some more strategies.
HG,
Thank you for this thread. It is easily one of the best and most worthwhile on elitetrader.com
JP
Re: P & F Trading
Quote from howardcsh:
I trade off the .50 x3 for intraday trades. I usually only trade triple tops and bottoms. I particularly like the breakouts when there are four or more o's or x's lined up.
Quote from johnpinochet:
HG,
Thank you for this thread. It is easily one of the best and most worthwhile on elitetrader.com
JP
Nice thread you have here...... I was introduced to P and F while in a program in SF about 7years ago and this program was based on Richard Wyckoff and he had his own PF style.......what I found after many 1000's of hour and ideas that we where trying to automate is that P and F will not allow for volume or any normal indicators.....Thus I use Renko in conjuction with RNF and the combined tools are better than anything out there......I will post some ideas that we have tested and give a few of our issues that we have worked out over the last 3 years. Trade well and good luck to all using this alternative price action method. this is the right track.
Renko didn't help me and I am familiar with the wyckoff method as well.
If you don't mind, I don't want to change the direction of this thread. If you start a thread on your method I promise I will read it.
P & F Trading
For intraday short term trades on ES and ZG I use .5 x 3.
For swing trades in YM I use 25 x 3 or 50 x 3 depending on my level of comfort with the market. I only take triples, quads, spread triples etc. I am looking for lock trades on long term trading so I probably only will trade two or three swing trades a year but they will be big moves. I still scale out and keep a runner which I trail a stop one box away from the previous low or high ( this essentially gets you out on a double top or bottom with a stopped out runner)
For USD/JPY try .025 x 3 and see the huge moves you can catch in this instrument. It is important to use mental stops with forex, never set a hard stop they will find it.
Basically you can do a little research on the net to find the appropriate box size for a given price.
I do not personally use the previous top as a target. I find that the best moves will always have a couple of retracements. As long as each retracement makes a higher low or lower high (for shorts) my stop management will keep me in the trade. You must have the confidence in your method to watch the price retrace and take some of your unrealized profits. You should definately paper trade these charts before you dive in so you know what to expect. I do always move my stop to my entry price as soon as my second mechanical target is taken out. I do not vary my first two targets. You will sometimes watch your first target get hit then get stopped out. It is ok, if you reduce the target sizes too small you will never make enough on winners to pay for stop outs.
My win rate is nearly 70%, so if you are selective with your trades, and follow the rules you can do well.
Oh by the way, I never trade between noon and 2:30 Eastern in the stock indexes and usually try to trade gold between 5:30 and 11:30 Eastern. Most of the best signals are in these time periods. Trade when the market is moving.
P & F Trading
Your initial stop on any trade will be one box below or above the previous column (that is, if you enter a long on a triple top breakout you put the stop one box under the last O in the previous column.) I usually do not take any trades that require a stop more than three points from the entry as the risk reward is not too good. Ideally you want a triple top breakout where the entry is say 1530.00 and the last column of o's has a low of 1528.00. This setup would give you a stop at 1527.50 (2.5 points.) This setup is even more powerful if each successive row of o's finishes higher than the one before it. Think of a bullish flat-top triangle.
As I stated earlier you will develop a feel for the entries that will work and I often now work without a hard stop but it is a feel thing. Some of the most powerful trades are wide spread quad or even quintuple trades where the price sort of makes a hard run at the resistance and some times the payoff is worth having a wider stop.
I promise to attempt to learn how to do screenshots so I can show some of these. Marcrivalland.com has some good basic material on P&F.
P & F Trading
After finding P&F I NEVER want to have another chart with any type of moving average or oscillator. They are useless. P&F gives clear and easy to interpret support and resistance information. Pure price is the only way to trade.
I just got a pm that really worries me. I don't want to see this happen BECAUSE YOU CAN AND WILL LOSE MONEY TRADING ALL PNF SIGNALS. I PROMISE YOU WILL.
The chart was submitted to me for evaluation. I placed it below this post.
Today it broke into a triple top buy signal. Do we buy it?
NOT ONLY NO, BUT HELL NO!!!!
Why do I say that?
First off the stock is in a severe downtrend.
2nd any move up will only likely make it to the 38-50% retracement level which is on 2-3 boxes away.
We have an 11 box risk to make 2 or 3 boxes. This trade sucks.
Now if there was an obvious reverse of the downtrend then yes we might have a different and higher target, but we are not out of the downtrend.
Crap here is the chart.
Re: Re: P & F Trading
Quote from HolyGrail:
That is exactly how I started to become profitable. Trading only triple tops and bottoms.
I later began to look at all large 1 column moves. I then wrote down the characteristics of each move. When I saw that many had the same characteristic I incorporated that into my trading. That is how I came up with the failed double top and/or bottom signal.
I thought I was being original, but I have now been told it is the same as Trader Vic's 2b move.
Soon thereafter I decided to trade three different box sizes to get a better confirmation on my trades.
I guess it is impossible to be original in this game.
Re: P & F Trading
Quote from howardcsh:
After finding P&F I NEVER want to have another chart with any type of moving average or oscillator. They are useless. P&F gives clear and easy to interpret support and resistance information. Pure price is the only way to trade.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Crap here is the chart.
Holy Grail more like holy shit! I started reading your thread on the 22nd with your first couple of posts and i just spent the better half of 2 hours skimming and analyzing the last 30 something pages! And it has all been very relevant...I think that is an ET record.
Awesome thread sir!
I started using p&f's about a year ago to setup vertical debit spreads, but i have moved on to other things that are more "fun" to watch than theta decay i use stockcharts.com (the free part) for my scans and charts.
I also programmed a VBA excel P&F "chart" macro so that i could get realtime updates, but i use thinkorswim so it updates via DDE. Its kind of klunky and unreliable (like when tos hangs and i loose x mins of dde data) so i have moved away from it. I figure i would mention it incase someone has the time and desire, but not the money for a real time charting software package.
Anywhoo i have a nice chart for some of the new people to look at before tomorrows opening.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...=NYB,PWTADANCBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
Once again, great job paying it forward.
P & F Trading
We trended up hard all day on the ES. I only traded from the long side today. There were some short set-ups but why take that risk. The trend is your friend.
On the huge down move displayed on that chart why would you even think about going long there. That may be a great trade but the risk reward is terrible and that will likely be a failed signal. Market makers and floor traders do know these signals and can put out bull and bear traps. You should always look left on the chart for your direction. If the chart is running from top left to bottom right look to be short. If the chart is running from bottom left to top right look to be long. These two simple rules will save you from disasters.
P & F Trading
Thanks Gehko I just put in my limit order. That is a great set-up.
Thanks for the compliment Gheko, and the contribution. I think we really might have something going here as more and more pnf'ers join in. Howard has already made huge contributions.
I'm no expert at this, and probably never will be, but if we put our heads together this could be something really special.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Renko didn't help me and I am familiar with the wyckoff method as well.
If you don't mind, I don't want to change the direction of this thread. If you start a thread on your method I promise I will read it.
Here is a chart to swing trade on the break out.
Symbol ABI
I strongly suggest people keep this in their watchlist. It is in a large perfectly consecutive triangle. This move is going to be huge when it happens. Remember if it gives a false breakout and reverses, double up and take the reversal.
Quote from WyckoffTrader:
Just thought I would offer than as a confirmation chart or some tid bit that some one can use to extract $$$$. I will only stick to PNF here......I do not want to start a new thread but will follow this one and maybe learn a nugget or two....long live alternative pricing.
P & F Trading
One other rule that I follow faithfully is as follows.
When I have taken my first two mechanical targets and my runner is working If the price gets above ten points I always move the stop to that level. Pigs get slaughtered.
Big outsized moves up are almost always followed by large retracements. The market will not allow prices to be extended for long.
P & F Trading
HG, Do you use the three consecutive ups or downs?
I haven't tried them live yet, I do paper trade them and they seem to be better than 50%. If you have used them what has been your results.
Re: P & F Trading
Quote from howardcsh:
HG, Do you use the three consecutive ups or downs?
I haven't tried them live yet, I do paper trade them and they seem to be better than 50%. If you have used them what has been your results.
P & F Trading
No its supposed to be a continuation pattern.
If each successive row of x's is one higher than the last and the bases are also rising you are supposed to be able to buy the third consecutive x.
I don't have a lot of faith in it.
Re: P & F Trading
Quote from howardcsh:
No its supposed to be a continuation pattern.
If each successive row of x's is one higher than the last and the bases are also rising you are supposed to be able to buy the third consecutive x.
I don't have a lot of faith in it.
There is one pattern I do like to trade that I haven't even mentioned and that is the strong uptrend or downtrend. It is a pattern with at least 8 boxes in one direction followed by only a 3 box reversal. I will buy the double top or bottom breakout on that every time, and if it gives me a falled double top I will reverse.
After going over the past 200 days of intraday data of the spy I am going to start tomorrow using the triple top/bottom and quad top/bottom live.
Using them when there are fewer boxes, 4 or less, (below for buy, above for sell) seems to make the signal even stronger.
x x x
xoxox
xoxo
ox
(the above is my crude attempt at showing what I mean by the height of the boxes)
Quote from trackstar:
After going over the past 200 days of intraday data of the spy I am going to start tomorrow using the triple top/bottom and quad top/bottom live.
Using them when there are fewer boxes, 4 or less, (below for buy, above for sell) seems to make the signal even stronger.
_____(signalhere)
x x x
xoxox
xoxo
ox
P & F Trading
That is the pattern. I have had about 50% on paper but it often puts you through a retracement and tests your stop so I don't really like it. I like to get my first target before any retracement that way any stop out only cost 150.00 or so.
So glad I actually found some people who trade these ancient charts. Lets make sure they don't get too popular though.
Dow used these in the nineteenth century. Funny how these charts outperform all the complicated mathematics in all the bands and oscillators. Bollinger band breakouts will get you in at the top better than anything else on the planet. Moving average crosses will get you in just in time to scalp a half point before the price rolls in the other direction yet people still trade these things every day.
Oh and nothing better than an overbot reading for about fifteen minutes while the price just rockets up.
Man we are on the same page Howard.
I'm going to try the bullish and bearish signal on paper and see how it does. There are some good moves with it, and I have a feeling it might have been more of a problem with my trailing stops. I used to trail stops after a 5 tick gain to break even and I have since found by not doing that I increased my profits per trade by 60%
P & F Trading
You have it right trackstar. The ideal setup is a nice triple top or quad where the last row of o,s before the breakout row of x,s is only three high. This is the best for risk reward.
You may get a great trade for your first, but like any trading system expect the first trade to test you. Trust the stop. It is below that last row of o,s or above the last row of x,s because those are support and resistance and they will usually hold. When I first started trading these signals I just used one or two contracts and took profits in total until I got comfortable with seeing the price retrace soon after a breakout. Helped me to visualize it as price breaking through a pivot and then retracing to the pivot before taking off (this is probably actually true). I am to the point of sometimes adding on on these retracements if I feel stongly about the setup. Think about the math. You buy a breakout at 1350.00 stop at 1347.50. You then take profits at 51, and 52. Price then retraces and you put in a buy stop at 1348, or 48.50. If the retracement takes out your order you now have those two or four contracts back with closer targets and even more momentum and only a one point stop.
Here is a great trade.
Leh
Double top breakout and you only need a 30 point stop
P & F Trading
If it put in a three box reversal then turned right back up I'd probably go for the next double top that is a powerful reversal.
Still alot of resistance above though.
Yes it is, and I agree with your assessment. I would take the trade too, and I also would be ready to reverse quick just in case.
HG, I know you're getting plenty of ass-kissing, but thanks again for spending the time here explaining your methods. It's simple as hell (learnable in a day), and very profitable.
It's late and I am going to bed, but I thought I should mention this stock before I do so
UPS
This stock is a buy at 74.00
We have a double bottom failure which has already reversed, and we are close to a buy signal.
I've added something that bulls eye trader also does for you.
On the right hand side you will see relative strength in a pnf format. Normally if you get a buy signal on price and an x column in the relative strength things are good. When you have this and a double top buy breakout on relative strength things are great.
I am going to definitely put my order in tonight.
We should get a quick pop to 79 if our 74 gets hit.
Hey, just came across this thread, going to go back and read it from the start but for anyone who knows - does the technique HolyGrail is describing here work for short-term (intraday 1-5 minute) ES/YM trades?
Yes it does. I trade ES every day with them.
P&F is not timeframe dependent, but yes, it can be used to trade ES/YM intraday.
Quote from shortorlong:
Hey, just came across this thread, going to go back and read it from the start but for anyone who knows - does the technique HolyGrail is describing here work for short-term (intraday 1-5 minute) ES/YM trades?
Nice use of RSI to confirm price action. Have not used P&F RSI... interesting.
P & F Trading
Triple bottom broke on ES broke about 9:49 eastern. Are you still in trailing that stop. This one is a home run.
P & F Trading
Just stopped out on runner with ten points. Very nice trade. You never know which ones will do this you just have to take the trade and manage it. I hope you guys tried to trail your stops on this one.
I'm about to get a triple top long signal. Also happens to be one with a tight stop
I just took this potential failed double bottom on the .5 on the reversal. I don't normally do this, but because we are also bullish on the 1.0 I think this will have a good result. My stop is at 1347 so if I lose it will be a larger loss than normal. That stop loss is based on the 1.0 chart turning bearish.
then again, maybe not
Well needless to say that was a bad trade on my part and I should have paper traded it since it was something new. That's what happens when you get too cocky.
The second red arrow was a short that I simmed using HG's failed DT concept, together with Resistance at 1348 (as shown by blue rectangle, also using prior lows, which become resistance when broken).
The first red arrow is Howard's trade (since he hasn't figured out how to do screen shots yet ).
all systems are go to take out the highs of the day
So how are you liking the Inv R/T charts? I have an addiction to their VB tool, and I still use this charting even though I have moved most everything over to NT 6.5 charts.
Quote from HolyGrail:
all systems are go to take out the highs of the day
I love it so far thank you so much for pointing me in the right direction. I have a lot to learn though. Hell I can't even figure out how to annotate charts yet. When the market closes hopefully I will get it figured out. I still use buttontrader to trade with though.
Damn this has been a tough high to take out.
Are you guys still long?
Quote from HolyGrail:
Damn this has been a tough high to take out.
I'm long three contracts at 1358
Quote from HolyGrail:
I'm long three contracts at 1358
One thing is for sure. If we break through it, it will be a nice move.
Quote from HolyGrail:
One thing is for sure. If we break through it, it will be a nice move.
All I want is 1361 today. Is that too much to ask?
Going to be interesting to see which way they take this into the close.
I know. On the .75 we've had 3 up and 3 down 4 times in a row. We'll probably go 1 box up and then straight down, or vice versa.
when you guys put in orders for the next day do you use buy stop orders or buy stop limit orders? just wondering because i'm papertrading currently
What firm? Thanks.
Quote from trackstar:
I just trade spy. Could be changing soon though as my clearing firm is starting to make it cheaper and cheaper to trade futs.
Well today I got hammered. I still have one trade on but I just broke my 9 day winning streak no matter what the results of the trade. I hate when that happens.
Cumulative delta was showing a build up of "net" short positions as we traded 1356 to 1358 area (several rotatations) before the sell off out of that area to lower prices. Cumulative delta can help you see real breakout or false breakout volume flow (that would be the Volume Breakdown tool within Inv R/T set to Cumulative Delta bars).
Quote from HolyGrail:
All I want is 1361 today. Is that too much to ask?
Quote from 5Pillars:
Cumulative delta was showing a build up of "net" short positions as we traded 1356 to 1358 area (several rotatations) before the sell off out of that area to lower prices. Cumulative delta can help you see real breakout or false breakout volume flow.
BTW, EXCELLENT thread - best in a long time.
Quote from 5Pillars:
BTW, EXCELLENT thread - best in a long time.
P & F Trading
After the early trade I took on the ES it was clear this was going to be a sideways day. The range was small and volume was low.
The P&F signals I know are good for breakouts only. I didn't take any trades after the opening short. Didn't see anything I like. I shitched to gold and had a couple of decent shorts there. It was a pretty good day but I wish someone knew some good fading entries for P&F. I feel like I only have a system for about 50-60 percent of the days we can trade. If the market is going up, good. If the market is going down, good. Sideways markets though suck.
Any ideas?
Re: P & F Trading
Quote from howardcsh:
After the early trade I took on the ES it was clear this was going to be a sideways day. The range was small and volume was low.
The P&F signals I know are good for breakouts only. I didn't take any trades after the opening short. Didn't see anything I like. I shitched to gold and had a couple of decent shorts there. It was a pretty good day but I wish someone knew some good fading entries for P&F. I feel like I only have a system for about 50-60 percent of the days we can trade. If the market is going up, good. If the market is going down, good. Sideways markets though suck.
Any ideas?
Re: P & F Trading
Quote from howardcsh:
After the early trade I took on the ES it was clear this was going to be a sideways day. The range was small and volume was low.
The P&F signals I know are good for breakouts only. I didn't take any trades after the opening short. Didn't see anything I like. I shitched to gold and had a couple of decent shorts there. It was a pretty good day but I wish someone knew some good fading entries for P&F. I feel like I only have a system for about 50-60 percent of the days we can trade. If the market is going up, good. If the market is going down, good. Sideways markets though suck.
Any ideas?
P & F Trading
I made money today because of the large early move and because of the fact that I switched to gold. The metals and soft comms move alot more and don't get faded as much. I would rather trade the ES when it moves because of the liquidity. I just don't think the indexes can be traded with P&F when they are not moving. I use smaller targets in the summer when its slow but I find that fading is better for that type of market.
The best market for long sustained moves and big breakouts is forex, but the forex brokers are basically running bucket shops and I don't feel they can be trusted. I may trade currency futures but I'd rather trade the pairs offered in forex. Take a look at the USD/JPY chart over the last few days. Use .025x3. Gold set for .5x3.
P & F Trading
My consolation for today is that even with five minute charts today would have been a challenge. The price spent the whole day between the PP and R1 and just kind of wandered around so only tape readers probably did well today. I have always been a trend follower so today would have killed me before. With P&F I just don't get any trades I like so I just change markets or sit on my hands. Not much fun but safe. The dollars you don't loose are just as important than the ones you win.
Re: P & F Trading
Quote from howardcsh:
After the early trade I took on the ES it was clear this was going to be a sideways day.
Any ideas?
Re: Re: P & F Trading
Quote from indahook:
Volty ebbs and flows. Just try and be aware that if you have a couple/few wide range days there is a low range day waiting to chop you up. Take a few swings and if nothing sticks walk away and live to fight another day.
I know you guys are trading PnF, but keeping a candle chart next to it can hint at these types of days. Today was a spinning top(*doji) all day on the daily which signifies indecision.
Just my thoughts on da chop.
Good trading to you all and this is a fine thread!
Good job Holygrail.
Ok, I am going to add a new facet to our discussion. This is basically for swing traders only.
It's called the bullish % index.
I've created an index of about 800 of the highest volume stocks. If you have nasdaq stocks or nyse stocks that are readily available you can do it on each index.
Basically what the index tells you is whether you should be looking for longs in your trades, or mainly shorts.
Now I have mentioned that I use bulls-eye broker for this. I love the program. I am not affiliated in any way with them. I don't make a commission on their sailes etc. It is just the only program that is pnf that does it that I am aware of. It also as previously mentioned, automatically changes box sizes based on price of the instrument you are trading. A very nice feature.
I do know other people on this board do something similar, so maybe we can get some insight from others on where they get their information.
Personally, I believe it is extremely important to be with the market. A rising tide does lift all boats.
Normally any time the index gets below 30% it is considered somewhat bullish that we are at or near a bottom.
When we are at 70% we are at or near a top. Personally I think anything over 60% is time to become cautious on your longs.
What this program does is scan the stock and looks for the last pnf signal. If it is bullish then it gets added to the bullish percent index.
It is recommended that you never add to your stocks while there is an 0 column as the current column. At least wait for a reversal before going long.
If you see any kind of breakout on this bullish chart it is even more bullish. If there is a breakout under the last column of 0's then it is extremely bearish to go long.
The key is not to add to your longs when we have an 0 column and not to add to your shorts when we have an x column.
Here is a current through today bullish% chart.
As you can see, we are still in bullish mode so we should be looking for longs in our swing trades. We have crossed over the 30% line as of today which is extremely bullish.
I know the world is predicting doom and gloom, but the chart says NOT RIGHT NOW. So trade based on it.
Based on what I called the last file I guess it must be 2009, so Happy New Year to all.
Also, just in case Indahook does not want to provide guidance on low range days, I think we have to put our heads together here and come up with a system.
I will try to do some research on this, but it would seem to me that we have to incorporate some kind of range guidelines because days like this will kill you. It is my biggest weakness, and it is criminal that the only way I get around it is to have "max loss day".
You come up with some of the most fascinating uses of P&F charts I've ever seen Mr. Grail.
Or should we just call you "Holy", as in "Holy cow, what's he gonna come up with next?"
Thanks a ton for sharing!
I would love to take credit for it, but it's Thomas Dorsey's idea.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Also, just in case Indahook does not want to provide guidance on low range days, I think we have to put our heads together here and come up with a system.
I will try to do some research on this, but it would seem to me that we have to incorporate some kind of range guidelines because days like this will kill you. It is my biggest weakness, and it is criminal that the only way I get around it is to have "max loss day".
Re: P & F Trading
Quote from howardcsh:
After the early trade I took on the ES it was clear this was going to be a sideways day. The range was small and volume was low.
The P&F signals I know are good for breakouts only. I didn't take any trades after the opening short. Didn't see anything I like. I shitched to gold and had a couple of decent shorts there. It was a pretty good day but I wish someone knew some good fading entries for P&F. I feel like I only have a system for about 50-60 percent of the days we can trade. If the market is going up, good. If the market is going down, good. Sideways markets though suck.
Any ideas?
Great thread HG & others.
Could someone discuss trendlines a little more. I understand they are drawn at 45 degrees, but from what point (x,o) do you draw them?
thanks
Quote from TradinMadMan:
Great thread HG & others.
Could someone discuss trendlines a little more. I understand they are drawn at 45 degrees, but from what point (x,o) do you draw them?
thanks
just adding my compliments,HG, for this educational thread.
i had put up a PnF chart a month or 2 ago - only when i discovered my ts2000i had the capability lol. i review it frequently, trying to understand what it's saying. now, i will understand much more. 1 thing i had played with, was the auto trendlines that come w/ TS.. looked like a viable tool. i'll be following your thread, and thanks again.
Quote from BigBubba:
just adding my compliments,HG, for this educational thread.
i had put up a PnF chart a month or 2 ago - only when i discovered my ts2000i had the capability lol. i review it frequently, trying to understand what it's saying. now, i will understand much more. 1 thing i had played with, was the auto trendlines that come w/ TS.. looked like a viable tool. i'll be following your thread, and thanks again.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Also, just in case Indahook does not want to provide guidance on low range days, I think we have to put our heads together here and come up with a system.
I will try to do some research on this, but it would seem to me that we have to incorporate some kind of range guidelines because days like this will kill you. It is my biggest weakness, and it is criminal that the only way I get around it is to have "max loss day".
Quote from trackstar:
Be aware of vol and avg volume throughout the day. Thats the ONLY thing I have from keeping me from getting chopped up on days like today.
Re: Re: Re: P & F Trading
Quote from HolyGrail:
thanks inda. Can I ask you something? At what point during the day when you saw that doji on the daily did you say this is not going to be a trend day? Do you take the range of the first two hours or something similar to that?
Yes, actually it does make sense inda. I guess you will still have to watch the sucker all day, or at least set an alarm for some kind of breakout. Thank you so much for your input.
Quote from HolyGrail:
That could definitely work, but at what point during the day do you make the decision?
Quote from sandygray66:
FWIW, using yours and Howard's concept of triple top breakouts (only on the ES .5 x 3), and only taking them with the trend (as defined by pivot relationships as seen on the P&F chart, with HH & HL for longs and LL and LH for shorts), there were 5 set ups today, all of which yielded 2 pts., if using a fixed target, and more if you used a trail.
9:48 S
10:32 S
11:06 L
12:13 L
11:34 L
It looked like a decent day on the ES .5 x 3, but I'm just a neophyte with these P&F methods.
I think volume may have kept you safe today. I wasn't trading p&f live, but everyone who likes trends and breakouts was hurting today. We were in a nice channel until the end of day (the SCT guys must have loved today).
If you had a magic indicator that would keep you out of chop markets, hell, any MA cross system would be gold.
Quote from howardcsh:
I hope my talking about the bad day didn't make anyone feel badly for me. The first short right at the open did give me a ten point gain.
P.S. The 9.48 short was the ten pointer.
Remember ups is still a buy at 74.
No new trades tonight. I'm busy trying to learn the ins and outs of investor/rt
not sure if this was mentioned on this thread but i stumbled across http://www.xocharts.com/ ... it draws the p&f on excel, data is free, you get it off yahoo, just input the symbol proper....naturally, it's good only for eod analysis...
thanks for the post. I am sure that we be helpful to someone.
i found this chart in one of my books on how to construct a p&f chart.
It is a great advantage to have time taken out of a chart. PNF does this for you.
While time is unimportant in determining price direction, time is critically important from a swing trading stand point.
You may know the direction, but if it takes 6 months to get there you may not want to make that swing trade.
Most commercial packages do not display any time reference in each column. If a new X or 0 is entered in a column, and it is the first time we have placed a new x or o in a column for that month we should replace that x or o with the month number.
An example chart is below.
Now here is an example of what I am talking about.
Sybase symbol SY
This is a great chart, and it may be a great long term hold, but it sure isn't a good swing trade right now. We are at the end of March and this stock hasn't even added an x to the new column it made in January.
If you look at previous columns you see an A and B in columns but not a C. That means we had a whole month of no significant movement.
Hey HolyGrail - great thread
What other indicators do you use besides P&F to determine trades?
Quote from PaulRon:
Hey HolyGrail - great thread
What other indicators do you use besides P&F to determine trades?
We have a potential "bearish reversal" signal that may come up on the .5 chart of ES.
If this column makes it to 1343 we now have a potential bullish catapult.
edit never made it so basically we have nothing.
Hg, others,
what do you think of that bearish reversal today in OIH?
Any thoughts?
hey HG
I am a new trader and want to practice P&F on old markets. What software would you use for backtesting P&F? Thanks dude
hey, HG. I personally do not subscribe to the P&F theory, but I like very much your methodical approach to it! I enjoy your posts. I think they educate people well! So, good luck to you.
Well I think I may have figured out what to do on low range days. I added a .25 chart for entry and traded off the .5. It wasn't a great day, but I did manage to catch a few moves for 2-3 points with mostly 4-5 tick moves so at least something gets added to the bottom line.
When there are quick moves the .25 goes beserk so I don't recommend it on a regular basis, but at least it kept me involved, I kept to my signals that I wanted to trade. No experiments.
Quote from PaulRon:
hey HG
I am a new trader and want to practice P&F on old markets. What software would you use for backtesting P&F? Thanks dude
Quote from MAESTRO:
hey, HG. I personally do not subscribe to the P&F theory, but I like very much your methodical approach to it! I enjoy your posts. I think they educate people well! So, good luck to you.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Thanks Maestro. It's the only thing that helped me understand price movement. No matter what system you use you still have to manage your trade. Entry is the easy part, knowing when to get the hell out is the part that determines success.
Ok I really want to talk about trendlines, and the breaking of trendlines. What I am about to say you may disagree with in principle, and that is ok. This is my opinion from trading with these charts.
It is absolutely essential that your trendlines are drawn at 45 degrees, but also, it is essential your software handles this properly. If the boxes on your chart are not perfectly proportioned correctly your trendline will not be a proper. For those using quote tracker or metastock I can tell you immediately that their trendlines are inaccurate.
Now, here is a question that puzzled me for ages. When is there a REAL trendline break? I'm talking about one you can trade on a reliable basis. Now this doesn't come from any book, this again is just my opinion, so take it as such.
On an uptrend, the trend is NOT BROKEN until the top of the x column fails to stay above the trendline.
Vice versa on a downtrend.
Now does this mean you stay in the stock and ride out the potential loss? That is up to you. I just want you to have a better idea when a trend is truly broken(imo) so you don't buy the first time you see an x cross over a previous downtrend. The market loves to shake you out and if it can it WILL.
I want to make sure that I emphasize this trend break I am talking about is pretty much for a new entry. Don't short or go long on a trend break until you get confirmation, and then buy on the next pnf signal you get.
I am not advocating holding when you get a trendline penetration if you are already in a trade. That is a personal choice. All I am saying is if it is within your risk tolerance to hold until the next column you can see if you get the confirmation or not. Make your decision after the confirmation if it is at all possible and withing your risk parameters.
Re: P & F Trading
Quote from howardcsh:
You have it right trackstar. The ideal setup is a nice triple top or quad where the last row of o,s before the breakout row of x,s is only three high. This is the best for risk reward.
You may get a great trade for your first, but like any trading system expect the first trade to test you. Trust the stop. It is below that last row of o,s or above the last row of x,s because those are support and resistance and they will usually hold. When I first started trading these signals I just used one or two contracts and took profits in total until I got comfortable with seeing the price retrace soon after a breakout. Helped me to visualize it as price breaking through a pivot and then retracing to the pivot before taking off (this is probably actually true). I am to the point of sometimes adding on on these retracements if I feel stongly about the setup. Think about the math. You buy a breakout at 1350.00 stop at 1347.50. You then take profits at 51, and 52. Price then retraces and you put in a buy stop at 1348, or 48.50. If the retracement takes out your order you now have those two or four contracts back with closer targets and even more momentum and only a one point stop.
__________________
A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
HG
you said about trend lines
It is absolutely essential that your trendlines are drawn at 45 degrees
I donot understand the concept why trend lines should be at 45 degrees.
__________________
A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
Quote from osho67:
HG
you said about trend lines
It is absolutely essential that your trendlines are drawn at 45 degrees
I donot understand the concept why trend lines should be at 45 degrees.
Here is what a trend line looks in metastock.
Now here is the same chart with a proper trend line. Quite a difference.
I don't know what is wrong, but one chart goes up to 47 dollars in price and the other does not.
Let me find another example.
Ok, now we have it in the proper prospective with both charts being equal. Here are potential trendlines in metastock.
Now here is the proper trendline.
OK to sum up. If your software can make proportionate boxes then a 45 degree angle will work. If not, all of your trendlines are crap in pnf.
Will you please tell me the software you use?
Thanks!
For real time day trading Investor RT(monthly charge)
For swing trading Bulls Eye Broker. (one time charge of 150.00
Thanks very much HG for all the time you have taken to explin the trend lines in pnf.
I use QT with data from IB and as you have mentioned QT does draw proper trend lines. I donot know why they donot fix the problem. I will send them an e mail as well.
Is there another software which will pick up prices from IB and draw correct trend lines?
Thanks again .
__________________
A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
So far, the only one anyone has been able to come up with is Investor/rt. 5Pillars had to come up with that one.
The problem is pnf is not something many people use, so I guess no one cares to add the proper features.
Equis, the makers of metastock, has many bugs in their pnf charts. One is, during a fast market the damn thing will keep repeating columns over and over. That is why I got bulls eye broker because it can read metastock data. I would look at the charts in metastock and when things started repeating I would look at bulls eye broker to see the real correct columns and trend. I would have to keep hitting refresh in metastock, and then look at bulls eye.
When I called equis about the problem they said that they were aware of the problem, thought they had already fixed it, but did not plan to do anymore work on pnf.
I guess if enough people start requesting it they might feel the pressure. It probably won't happen anytime soon though.
Man, there have been some really great signals on ES today. I sure hope this keeps up.
Thanks for all your hard work HG!!!
Can you tell me what you think about Investor R/T so far?
Any bugs?? Reliable? Stable? etc.
Thanks!
Quote from HolyGrail:
Man, there have been some really great signals on ES today. I sure hope this keeps up.
Quote from sandygray66:
Any chance you can provide some charts to show what you see on the ES today? After market close is fine.
Thanks!
Quote from mo-jord:
Thanks for all your hard work HG!!!
Can you tell me what you think about Investor R/T so far?
Any bugs?? Reliable? Stable? etc.
Thanks!
Quote from sandygray66:
Any chance you can provide some charts to show what you see on the ES today? After market close is fine.
Thanks!
Quote from HolyGrail:
So far, the only one anyone has been able to come up with is Investor/rt. 5Pillars had to come up with that one.
The problem is pnf is not something many people use, so I guess no one cares to add the proper features.
Equis, the makers of metastock, has many bugs in their pnf charts. One is, during a fast market the damn thing will keep repeating columns over and over. That is why I got bulls eye broker because it can read metastock data. I would look at the charts in metastock and when things started repeating I would look at bulls eye broker to see the real correct columns and trend. I would have to keep hitting refresh in metastock, and then look at bulls eye.
When I called equis about the problem they said that they were aware of the problem, thought they had already fixed it, but did not plan to do anymore work on pnf.
I guess if enough people start requesting it they might feel the pressure. It probably won't happen anytime soon though.
Thanks for your help to this thread Goinglite, and I do apoligize for my previous comments to you.
Ok, I am going to post a .75 chart of ES today.
I believe when you first get started in P&F, or if you want to just about always make money trade these signals, and ONLY THESE SIGNALS. Normally you will get at least 1-3 a day. If you feel that you can't make enough money with that many trades then increase your contract size.
What I always do is take a position on the reversing double bottom breakout signal, and then try to add contracts on the retrace.
I normally just place a 3 to 5 point target on this. A target of 3 from the first breakout. Any additions will still have the same target, but hopefully it will be from a better price.
Now remember my target is 3 based on a .75 chart. If you use a .5 I would lower that target, and if you use a 1.0 I would increase that target.
EDIT: by just trading these signals you don't have to go through the trouble of buying new software so you can have trendlines.
Oh, and btw, if these signals all of sudden stop working I am going to be really pissed that I started this thread.
I cant figure out why my esignal charts wont do the .75box/2.25reversal like yours.
At least the signals are working anyway.
Is it that I am charting the SPY instead of the actual ES contract? My intraday chart with those setting makes 4 columns with random Xs and Os.
I have been using a .25/.75 and it has been working intraday.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Thanks for your help to this thread Goinglite, and I do apoligize for my previous comments to you.
Here's a PnF Chart from Sierra.
Great thread HG.
Any ideas about the reliability of quad or triple vs double top breakouts for swing trading?
Seems they would be stronger, but you never know. How about a reversal of a quad top breakout?
I don't have any statistics, but typically the wider the formation the bigger the breakout when it occurs.
Quote from Goinglite:
Here's a PnF Chart from Sierra.
Just a note. The bullish % index his risen to 36%, so even though the market is seemingly dropping, we are most likely going higher, and will probably at least get to the 1400-1420 area on es.
Needless to say if you are long stocks these last couple of days have most likely been a buying opportunity.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I have never seen a p&F chart displayed in such a manner. I assume it must compute the same.
Yes the scale argument makes sense. I'm surprised they don't allow you to change colors. Although I have heard of Sierra charts I am not familiar with them. Are they free?
Quote from HolyGrail:
Yes the scale argument makes sense. I'm surprised they don't allow you to change colors. Although I have heard of Sierra charts I am not familiar with them. Are they free?
Quote from HolyGrail:
Yes the scale argument makes sense. I'm surprised they don't allow you to change colors. Although I have heard of Sierra charts I am not familiar with them. Are they free?
Wow, it turns out Investor r/t automatically records the session so I can show you some things I did today.
As I have mentioned, I like to take confirmed signals when all charts (.5,.75, and 1.0) are at least going in the same direction. I want to have a buy or sell signal actually on the .5, and .75 with one close on the .75.
Here is what the setup looked like. The file is named for the exact time. I went short 1 tick before the .75 kicked in with a double bottom sell.
Why did I assume it would continue down? All charts were one step away from going negative. The last x column was lower then the previous x column.
Now you would think all charts are in a buy or sell situation simultaneously many times during the day, but this is not true. It doesn't happen near as often as you would think. The white chart is the 1.0, grey is .75 and green .5
Now here is what the chart looked like 40 or so minutes later.
It was a 10 point move of which I ONLY GOT 3 ON ONE CONTRACT AND 4 ON THE OTHER.
I have been trying to develop a strategy as to how much I am willing to allow it to pull back against my profits, but I will be perfectly honest I really need guidance here.
I thought, and this does work, that you keep your stop loss above the x column as long as the next 0 column goes below the previous 0 column. The problem is that it does capture big trends, but when the market is not trending strongly you will just about lose or break even on all of your setups. It seems like everything you do is a compromise of some sort.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Now here is what the chart looked like 40 or so minutes later.
It was a 10 point move of which I ONLY GOT 3 ON ONE CONTRACT AND 4 ON THE OTHER.
I have been trying to develop a strategy as to how much I am willing to allow it to pull back against my profits, but I will be perfectly honest I really need guidance here.
I thought, and this does work, that you keep your stop loss above the x column as long as the next 0 column goes below the previous 0 column. The problem is that it does capture big trends, but when the market is not trending strongly you will just about lose or break even on all of your setups. It seems like everything you do is a compromise of some sort.
I'll tell you what, I really like this recorded playback stuff. I am going through the whole day now to see if I am consistent in my approach. I can already see I missed some trades, but that could be when I was busy doing what I am supposed to be doing at the office.
I am going to go back to the low range day where I lost my limit and see if I could have done anything better.
Well here is my worst trade of the day, but when I look at it I would still have entered when I did. It was just unfortunate I did it with 3 contracts. (that always happens when you have too much confidence, and you've had a good day trying to top it off to an even better day)
I bought off the green chart or the .5. My rule is to buy in between the .5 and .75 trigger. Well it hit that trigger and never proceeded to trigger a sell on the grey chart.
I tried to scale out and lost 2.25 points on 1 contract, and 3.5 points on the other two. Greed is not good. Normally I would have traded one contract on the breakout, and 1 on the first reversal. Lack of discipline KILLS.
P & F Trading
HG.
I would have to go back and look at my old posts to see if I mentioned this, but as far as the ten point moves you missed full profits on. I ALWAYS take my position off at plus ten. I my back testing I found few moves that didn't have a significant retracement after going ten or twelve points.
As for the trade management, I always put my stop one box above the last x row for shorts (under the o row for longs) and leave it there until my plus one and plus two are hit. I then move the stop to entry and or trail it one box above or below whichever is better, until it stops out. This means you are always stopped out on a reversal signal. In slow markets I reduce the initial targets to .5 and one. I don't see any other way to trade P&F than with at least three contracts. With two you can only take the initial profit and trail the other. This is fine but very often the moves are plus two or so then a reversal. Getting two than moving stop to entry or one box for last retracement (whichever is better) always gets you a profitable trade. The only loosers are the quick reversals or the one point and done moves and these are manageable losses.
I know its heresy to say this, but if you will apply a 34 period EMA to your charts and take longs only above the MA and shorts only below it you will find that it cuts down on the loosers. You may find that it keeps you out of a few good trades on a big reversal but these are risky trades with a higher level of failure. I hope one moving average doesn't mean its not pure price any more
What I like about this thread is that someone has take a very simple methodology and made it work. Not for just himself but also for struggling traders that are searching for a way just to be consistently profitable. The discovery of additional high % setups, that are not in "the books", is very commendable. Creativity at work
Re: P & F Trading
Quote from howardcsh:
HG.
I would have to go back and look at my old posts to see if I mentioned this, but as far as the ten point moves you missed full profits on. I ALWAYS take my position off at plus ten. I my back testing I found few moves that didn't have a significant retracement after going ten or twelve points.
As for the trade management, I always put my stop one box above the last x row for shorts (under the o row for longs) and leave it there until my plus one and plus two are hit. I then move the stop to entry and or trail it one box above or below whichever is better, until it stops out. This means you are always stopped out on a reversal signal. In slow markets I reduce the initial targets to .5 and one. I don't see any other way to trade P&F than with at least three contracts. With two you can only take the initial profit and trail the other. This is fine but very often the moves are plus two or so then a reversal. Getting two than moving stop to entry or one box for last retracement (whichever is better) always gets you a profitable trade. The only loosers are the quick reversals or the one point and done moves and these are manageable losses.
I know its heresy to say this, but if you will apply a 34 period EMA to your charts and take longs only above the MA and shorts only below it you will find that it cuts down on the loosers. You may find that it keeps you out of a few good trades on a big reversal but these are risky trades with a higher level of failure. I hope one moving average doesn't mean its not pure price any more
Not related to P&F WARNING!! WARNING!!!!
I don't know if you guys are aware of the Put/Call trade but its working tonite.
Put/Call ratio above 1.05 and closing trin one or higher means overnite prices higher. Its a YM trade, go long at five minutes before the close or exactly at close, 60 point stop and close out longs on the open. I usually put in a 100 point sell stop. Oh it is only for down days.
You could have a set t/p (at like 1.5-2 times risk?) for half. Once that's hit, move your stop loss to break even on the other half (so your entry), and either trail it like you do, or grab another 2-3 points).
I would like to ask two questions. Any replies much appreciated
(1) I want to swing trade ES. Can it be done? What settings are recommended?
(2) Can you be in some trade all the time? Say at the start of x column ,you go long and at the start of 0 column you reverse the trade and go short. Box size and reversal settings can be adjusted. Some descrition can be used as well depending on the experience of the trader. There could be small losses and small profits but sometimes you will catch a big move. Could this be done with any Index and for day trading or swing trading.
HG has said that if you take all the trades you are bound to lose money. But I am still asking can this be done with adjustments to box sizes and with some descrition.?
Again replies much appreciated. Thanks
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A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
Quote from atonix:
You could have a set t/p (at like 1.5-2 times risk?) for half. Once that's hit, move your stop loss to break even on the other half (so your entry), and either trail it like you do, or grab another 2-3 points).
Quote from osho67:
I would like to ask two questions. Any replies much appreciated
(1) I want to swing trade ES. Can it be done? What settings are recommended?
(2) Can you be in some trade all the time? Say at the start of x column ,you go long and at the start of 0 column you reverse the trade and go short. Box size and reversal settings can be adjusted. Some descrition can be used as well depending on the experience of the trader. There could be small losses and small profits but sometimes you will catch a big move. Could this be done with any Index and for day trading or swing trading.
HG has said that if you take all the trades you are bound to lose money. But I am still asking can this be done with adjustments to box sizes and with some descrition.?
Again replies much appreciated. Thanks
Quote from osho67:
I would like to ask two questions. Any replies much appreciated
(2) Can you be in some trade all the time? Say at the start of x column ,you go long and at the start of 0 column you reverse the trade and go short. Box size and reversal settings can be adjusted. Some descrition can be used as well depending on the experience of the trader. There could be small losses and small profits but sometimes you will catch a big move. Could this be done with any Index and for day trading or swing trading.
Again replies much appreciated. Thanks
Quote from HolyGrail:
I totally missed your point on this. Yes you can do this, but how in the world would you know when to get out of the opposite trade?
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You'll get killed in chop. Go ahead and try it if you want, but I highly doubt it would work.
Quote from osho67:
I would reverse the position say from buy to sell immediately X row ends and 0 row starts. and vice versa all the time and always in the trade. I donot know what box size or reversal size but if I am doing too many trades I will adjust so I do fewer trades. Papertrading initially ofcourse. Thoughts and suggestions most welcome.
Quote from atonix:
You'll get killed in chop. Go ahead and try it if you want, but I highly doubt it would work.
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I found this thread last night and have read through all the posts. While being aware of PnF charting, I have not used it in the past. But I decided I would give it a try this morning and see if it was helpful.
In the intraday ES, I like the concept of using the different range sizes. This is similar to trading using different timeframes in that it is usually smart to trade in the direction of the longer time frames and in the case of PnF it is a good idea to trade the ES in the direction of the 1.0.
Keeping that in mind, I saw a great trade this morning. At approximately 10:23 ET, the 1.0 PnF went bearish, in that the O's went below the prior column of O's. This put the .5, .75 and the 1.0 in the bearish camp. Within a few minutes, the .5 reversed back to bullish, but the .75 and 1.0 remained bearish. At this point, I figured that when the .5 would reverse back to bearish, it would be a sell. That happened a few minutes later, so the there was a sell at about 1332 (approx 10:38 ET) and within a few minutes, the ES was down near 1328. Anyone else see that?
I like the idea of waiting for .5, .75 and 1.0 to go the same direction , allow for a .5 and maybe a .75 countertrend move and then go with the trend when the .5 and/ .75 get back in synch with the 1.0.
The sync trades are my favorite scalp trades. The duration is normally very short.
I just switched over to ym. Too slow today on es.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I just switched over to ym. Too slow today on es.
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A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
4,5,6 with 3 box reversal
I should menton on the sync trades that the most reliable ones are when they are all about to be in a buy or sell position.
For example, here is a current state in YM.
I did not take this sync trade because we have had one column which has been 0's for a long time.
What I am looking for is a double or triple bottom in all three charts. Then they ARE truly in sync. Some other trades may work when the larger box size is slightly out of sync. This would be something like this
.5 has a double or triple top or bottom
.75 has a double or triple top or bottom
1.0 just started a reversal column and it has at least 3 more boxes to go before it reaches a double or triple, top or bottom.
We have a possible bullish catapult on the .5 in es if 1331.50 gets hit before a new column of 0's
We just had a nice sync trade in ym.
Just completed another sync scalp on ym.
I was following your trades. They make good sense to me! Keep it up!
Thank you Maestro. I'm still trying to learn the best methods, and it does comfort me that you feel this may be on the right track.
We had aI nother one, but I missed it do to some office stuff. 12251 is a pivot point so it probably doesn't have much potential anyway.
We just had another one that I didn't take. If it broke the pivot it would have been a great trade, but I won't trade unless it breaks the pivot pretty strongly, and then only on a slight pullback.
The daily pivots are shown in the chart (a nice feature in investor /rt.
I did trade the setup on my button trader simulator and of course it failed with my normal stops, so I guess I feel pretty good about not taking it.
Well I am done for the day. I made another sync trade that worked out but was scary because of the huge stops necessary, and I just ended the day with this bearish catapult on the 5 point chart
It has been said before, but I want to reiterate this. Your chances of success increase dramatically when you trade any pnf signal with the trend.
The only possible exception is when you are at the highs or lows of the day.
That goes for these sync trades as well. If you want to trade them counter trend you need to have lower targets.
And of course as soon as you make a rule, there are exceptions.
The failed double bottom sell breakout, or failed double top buy breakout should be COUNTER TREND for best results.
And as always, if we are in chop, NOTHING WORKS IN PNF.
Did some work on Sierra Charts. Here's the latest chart example of point and figure.
Holy Grail,
I'm a PnF guy, too. What real-timePnF charting software do use?
Good luck finding a commercial P&F package. I had to write my own to get something I liked.
The problem is that most charting packages are built around a OpenHighLowClose data framework and hours:minutes:seconds and it makes them difficult to render p&f correctly.
Most commercial packages do not deal with p&f trend lines and convert OHLC bars to columns which loses column data. You really need to build the columns as the data comes in to really see choppy areas correctly and to have trend lines work (IMHO). Here is a screenshot of YM late this afternoon showing YM 1x3 boxes. Also on the screen is Time&Sales for ES, YM and NQ. I use p&f to complement other screens and not by itself.
Good trading! Great thread HG!
For real time trading I use investor rt, and it works perfectly and dsiplays everything correctly including trends.
For swing trading I use bulls eye broker, which is a program specifically for pnf, nothing else.
Welcome to thread guys. Please feel free to contribute your ideas on trading pnf.
Great thread HG. Someone earlier in the thread recommended du Plessis's book on P&F. I use the 1 box reversal method in the ES and thought it might be of interest here. The graphic is a comparison of a 1x1 and a 0.5x3 of part of last Thursday. The one box reversal is the only chart where X's and O's can occupy the same column. It allows for a pullback of one box and any increment up to but not including 2 boxes without changing the direction of the chart. This acts as a filter for minor pullbacks while continuing the trend. The small retracements can be seen as an ascending trend of X's with one O under them or descending O's with one X above. I like the way it condenses the chart and I think makes it easier to see patterns forming.
These charts are courtesy of a programmer friend of mine, but I saw on the link to Linnsoft that 5pillars posted that they have the one box chart for anyone that might be interested in following up on this.
Quote from nevadan:
Great thread HG. Someone earlier in the thread recommended du Plessis's book on P&F. I use the 1 box reversal method in the ES and thought it might be of interest here. The graphic is a comparison of a 1x1 and a 0.5x3 of part of last Thursday. The one box reversal is the only chart where X's and O's can occupy the same column. It allows for a pullback of one box and any increment up to but not including 2 boxes without changing the direction of the chart. This acts as a filter for minor pullbacks while continuing the trend. The small retracements can be seen as an ascending trend of X's with one O under them or descending O's with one X above. I like the way it condenses the chart and I think makes it easier to see patterns forming.
These charts are courtesy of a programmer friend of mine, but I saw on the link to Linnsoft that 5pillars posted that they have the one box chart for anyone that might be interested in following up on this.
Well Nevaden, I can already see some advantages to that method. I think where it pays off the most is when you have a long column of x's followed by a long column of o's on the standard pnf chart. You really don't know what is going on with the above other than bulls and bears seem to be equal.
Turn it over to your suggested chart and you can definitely see what is happening.
Now to compare the two charts I am going to display you really have to find the high on both charts so you know where you are looking on the chart.
This is a normal pnf for YUM. Notice during 2007 we would have been standing like a deer in headlights when we had a long column of 0's.
Now we go to the 1 box reversal chart, and we get an earlier signal that there could be trouble in this stock.
Remember with standard pnf we would have probably stayed in the stock because the 0 column did not go below the previous 0 column.
I can definitely see incorporating this into the mix to help define areas on the chart where you need more detail.
This is also the reason why I use 3 charts with different point values.
Here is a link to a research paper on Point and Figure charting from the Queensland University of Technology School of Economics and Finance.
"Point and Figure Charting: A Computational Methodology and Trading Rule Performance in the S&P 500 Futures Market"
Abstract
Point and Figure charting is one of the oldest practitioner techniques for analysing price movements in financial markets, yet has received almost no coverage in the academic finance literature. This paper empirically contributes to the existing trading rule literature by providing a methodology for the calculation of Point and Figure charts using ultra-high-frequency data and tests trading rules using eight objective, pre-defined trading rules on US futures contracts. In general it is found that profits were able to be generated during the test period using the Point and Figure methodology.
Great find Slacker. It's nice to see some empirical results. Thank you!!!
Based on the results I guess we should all be using a 4 box reversal instead of a three. This will obviously require larger stops.
HG, Wyckoff did use P&F and reading him is what got me onto this form of charting. For a good historical view on P&F the du Plessis book is again a great reference. He does an excellent chronology of the development of P&F. Glad to hear you are finding details that aren't so apparent in the 3 box charts in the 1box. I find it just about right in the ES, it is not so twitchy as a smaller increment three box but still usually will generate enough signals during a trading session to try for a decent move for day time frame trades ( I am flat at the close as a rule).
I mostly use the standard stuff, like fulcrums, catapults etc., but I am also a student of Market Profile as well and have adapted some of that into a blend with P&F. They complement each other pretty well with MP used for S/R. I try to find set ups that complement each other from both.
One thing I have noticed using the one box is that when a breakout signal generates, as in column 101 and price of 1338 in the one box chart from my previous post, and column 166 in the 3 box chart, is that if price does not retrace by at least one point after the signal then the market is leaving and probably won't allow stragglers to get on board. I found this by trying to be cute and instead of just taking the trade when the signal came, I would immediately enter an order at (in this instance) 1337, thinking that I could use market noise to improve my entry by one point. The upshot of this is it seemed like every time I didn't get filled the market would generate what would have been a very good trade, and when I was filled at the better price a profit could usually be had but it might not be more than a point or two or probably should be scratched if it doesn't go in pretty short order. As you can see in the charts, a profit of 3,6 and 10 points was available before either a two box pullback or 1338 traded again. So my conclusion from this observation (more than just this one instance, I have missed quite a few good trades trying to be "cute") is that a breakout from a consolidation level like this that does not retrace by one point can be used to gauge the strength of a potential move.
Any thoughts on Box sizes for the Forex markets?
Eur/Usd
Usd/Jpy
etc.
Thanks
(Forgive me if this posted before. I read to page 55 and have to leave for a bit)
I don't trade forex so I really don't know. Maybe someone who is using pnf trading forex can chime in. I would experiment a little. You want your smallest chart to reflect a change of direction but not something that changes direction every minute.
Re: P & F Trading
Quote from howardcsh:
For USD/JPY try .025 x 3 and see the huge moves you can catch in this instrument. It is important to use mental stops with forex, never set a hard stop they will find it.
Basically you can do a little research on the net to find the appropriate box size for a given price.
So far it's been another good day. I am still trading ym today, but since research has shown that 4 reversal boxes give the more reliable setups I changed my settings on ym to a 2 x 4, 3 x 4, and a 4 x 4.
We had a triangle break out on two charts just now which was a nice move that has not ended yet as I am typing this.
HG,
I am new to trading and want to tell you this is one of the best threads I have seen. All posts are very educational and informative.
Welcome aboard, and thank you. I'm just glad there are other people trading with it that can contribute to the thread.
I didn't mean to take credit away from all others who are posting too. There is a wealth of knowledge on this thread and the best part is that it can help you regardless of your level of experience.
Quote from HolyGrail:
So far it's been another good day. I am still trading ym today, but since research has shown that 4 reversal boxes give the more reliable setups I changed my settings on ym to a 2 x 4, 3 x 4, and a 4 x 4.
We had a triangle break out on two charts just now which was a nice move that has not ended yet as I am typing this.
you can read most of jeremy duplessis book.the definitive guide to point and figure .this is available on google books.the preveiw gives you most of the book
slacker.is it possible you could let us have the excel formulae use for youre charting.i use updata.this is by far the best on the market for p/f charting.i am a novice with excel
Here we have another nice ym sync trade. I just got stopped out on partial.
ialwayslearn:regarding youre query on
box sizes.you use the right box size that shows the volatility of the instrument.
basically you must not have columns that are too long.this means you have to go up a box size to shorten any long columns.vice versa if the columns are too short
increase/decrease the box size increase/decreases youre time horizon
so u might find that 0.2% works well for fx.and lower for bond futures.stocks 1% by 3 for med term.etc etc
Other contracts hit target at 30 points. Out of the trade.
Nice triangle forming on YM right now.
Quote from dentist007:
ialwayslearn:regarding youre query on
box sizes.you use the right box size that shows the volatility of the instrument.
basically you must not have columns that are too long.this means you have to go up a box size to shorten any long columns.vice versa if the columns are too short
increase/decrease the box size increase/decreases youre time horizon
so u might find that 0.2% works well for fx.and lower for bond futures.stocks 1% by 3 for med term.etc etc
u might want to try 1 box reversal charts.you can take some good horizontal counts from intraday data
ialwayslearn:
why are you bothering with atr.this really has nothing to do with p/f.it is a calculated line
u must look at the colun lengths.long columns make the chart unreadable.check out the book.it is a free preveiw on google
HG - What are your thoughts on range bars? I have heard that they are similar to P&F charts, some say they are an extension thereon.
Thoughts?
Well I am done for the day. We had two fake triangle breakouts that turned a very good day into an ok day. Then I had a great trade that turned it back into a good day, and my last trade of the day gave back some of my winnings. Still a decent day, but should have been better.
Quote from shortorlong:
HG - What are your thoughts on range bars? I have heard that they are similar to P&F charts, some say they are an extension thereon.
Thoughts?
Dentist007
You had said that you need to choose a box size that captures the VOLATILITY of the instrument.
I was thinking that using ATR, H-L, etc. might be a more objective way of determing box size for a given market rather than saying a column is "too high" or "too low".
I get the concept of what you are saying. I am not looking to re-invent the wheel.
This has been a great thread so far and I was just throwing out some ideas to consider based on what you said about volatility.
Quote from Ialwayslearn:
Dentist007
You had said that you need to choose a box size that captures the VOLATILITY of the instrument.
I was thinking that using ATR, H-L, etc. might be a more objective way of determing box size for a given market rather than saying a column is "too high" or "too low".
I get the concept of what you are saying. I am not looking to re-invent the wheel.
This has been a great thread so far and I was just throwing out some ideas to consider based on what you said about volatility.
ialwayslearn:
first consider what reversal u want ot use.
3box give good vertical counts and also good horizontal counts from a hi or lo .main ones
1 box give good horizontal counts.no verticals
to do good analysis u need to look at both
vertical counts do not work well on 2,4 and 5 box counts
next consider youre time horizon.longer /med then daily data either close only or hi/lo plot.best to choose close to start with.
then by starting at a high box size u go down box sizes to expose the volatility and then look for trading signals
45 degree trendlines are the strongest on 3 box reversal charts
p/f charts allow you to extract the most information about the instrument than any other charting method
In his long chapter on Point and Figure trading Kaufman describes using other means to determine an optimal box size.
I thought it was interesting but not enough to make me want to buy the book! It did not also interest me enough to program it in my charting package which would be easy to do. But hey, maybe I missed something...
At the end of the day I believe for every trade adaptive-box-size helped you, you would lose another trade using the standard boxes.
Probably best is to use another approach to confirm the trade. HG uses several screens of different size boxes, I use other screens following price action, and volume, with a few indicators.
http://www.amazon.com/New-Trading-S...06998492&sr=8-1
Good trading!
kaufman is not quite right on this.there is no optimal box size.if u flip up or down thru box sizes then u will see.
slacker;any chance of the codes for youre p/f charting
Ok, I was just playing around and experimenting a little on this. I took a 200 day atr on YM and ES. If you use 3% of the range you get a pretty nice intraday chart. I tried this on stocks as well and it looks pretty good.
Edit: so if you like to trade apple intraday, at least one of your charts would be a .14 per box size chart.
HolyGrail, I believe you may be mistaken about box size on YM. I think that thesis used the ES. Point for point, if you used a 4 point ES box, you'd be looking at somewhere around 40 YM points. Please correct me if I'm mistaken.
The research paper on P&F shows an average win ratio of less than 45%. However, I noticed their exit signals were not based on S/R or trendlines. For example every B4/S4 entry was closed out with a S1/B1 signal. It is possible that I missed other exit strategies employed by the researcher but if, in fact, the only exit signals were the opposing buy or sell signals, how much influence could that have had on the final win ratios? And what are the best exit signals? Has that already been discussed here?
Quote from atonix:
HolyGrail, I believe you may be mistaken about box size on YM. I think that thesis used the ES. Point for point, if you used a 4 point ES box, you'd be looking at somewhere around 40 YM points. Please correct me if I'm mistaken.
Ah, you're completely right.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I'm not sure I understand what you are saying? I am using a 4 box reversal now both on ES and YM. Points per box is a different story.
Ok, you guys need to know I cheat sometimes. Most of the time I won't, but I do this often and it has a decent track record.
If you have a STRONG uptrend or downtrend and you get a failed double bottom sell signal(in an uptrend), or a failed double top buy signal(in a downtrend) I normally do not wait for another pnf signal before I buy or sell. I buy or sell on the very next column change if it appears on two charts.
The annotations showing the failed double bottom did not show up on my chart for some reason so you will have to spot it manually. It's the last 0 column on each chart.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Ok, you guys need to know I cheat sometimes. Most of the time I won't, but I do this often and it has a decent track record.
If you have a STRONG uptrend or downtrend and you get a failed double bottom sell signal(in an uptrend), or a failed double top buy signal(in a downtrend) I normally do not wait for another pnf signal before I buy or sell. I buy or sell on the very next column change if it appears on two charts.
The annotations showing the failed double bottom did not show up on my chart for some reason so you will have to spot it manually. It's the last 0 column on each chart.
__________________
Boib
Its easy to make a small fortune if you start with a big one
Quote from Boib:
Just so I have it right you would buy as soon as the X colunm printed?
Great thread. Thank you
HG,
What signals are you using to exit out of each position?
It depends on the type of trade I am making. If it is a sync trade I am typically looking for a target on YM for 10-15 points or 1.5-3 points on ES. If it is a failed double top or bottom buy or sell I set my target for a minimum of 3 points and 30 points on YM.
If we are close to a new high or low I will set my target 1 or 2 ticks below the high or 2 ticks above the low. Obviously if the risk/reward is not good enough near that high or low I will not take the trade.
I am also going back to 3 box reversals. I've kept up both types of charts during this and there has yet to be a sync trade with my current YM 4 box reversal set-up, but there have been good ones on the 3 box.
Thanks.
So you mainly use profit targets as opposed to pivot points or fibs, etc.? You never use any other indicator with p&f charts?
I have pivot points on my chart at all times. I consider them support and resistance.
I do not use any other indicator on intraday trading. When I swing trade I add relative strength as my only indicator.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Ok, you guys need to know I cheat sometimes. Most of the time I won't, but I do this often and it has a decent track record.
__________________
...
nobody seems to be using 3 box vertical counts and 1 and 3 box horizontal counts.these are very powerful indecators
they are only suited to p/f charts aswell as 45 degree trendlines on 3 box reversals
these are the only 2 things that enhance p/f charts.it is not just about double-top/bottom.catapults,semi catapults etc etc
once you incorporate these,there is no other charting format that can give you the same amount of information about the instrument you are trading
Give us some details, could you?
Quote from dentist007:
nobody seems to be using 3 box vertical counts and 1 and 3 box horizontal counts.these are very powerful indecators
go to google.register.then go to books.put in definitive guide to point and figure.import it in to youre library.you can preveiw most of the book
under contents go to projecting price targets.it is all there and for free
i have no connections with the author or the publisher of this book.it is a great book.thats it...!!!
There are methods for determining price objectives.
I have not used them for intraday because I don't think they work, but I will post them anyway.
Now Thomas Dorsey does it differently than most pnf'ers. He uses a different formula for shorts than he does for longs. He says this is because of the natural bias to go up.
The four types of price objectives are as follows:
Bullish vertical count
bearish vertical count
bullish horizontal count
bearish horizontal count
Bearish vertical count
bullish horizontal count
Bearish horizontal count
Thank you HG, I read that somewhere else before and I thought he meant something else.
Great job, BTW
Quote from HooLee:
Thank you HG, I read that somewhere else before and I thought he meant something else.
Great job, BTW
Has anyone tried to daytrade w/ stockcharts? They have some nice looking charts.
I was under the impression they only offer eod pnf charting. Has that changed?
Since I only started looking for intraday charts after reading this thread I can't say.
But apparently they have them now.
I've noticed they seem to have all the bells and whistles on their Pnf charts except you have to refresh the page for an update which is a little annoying if you're used to watching real time.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I was under the impression they only offer eod pnf charting. Has that changed?
What's your take of the price objective they show on the chart?
If it worked a good % of the time that would be a great feature.
Seems, ahem, a little high tho. LOL
Well one thing is for sure. We are not going to see it get to that target on an intraday basis. Plus, this move has not retraced at all, so we are going to take a lot of heat.
I find the pnf price projections work pretty well if based on a longer term chart(higher box size) from a significant pivot point. Every time you get a new pnf signal on your chart you will get a new price target based on the very last pattern. Therefore you will get all kinds of weird price projections.
Here is an ES projection based on the vertical count of the last pnf signal. It shows es will make it to 1020 sometime in this downtrend.
Here is an interesting graphic starting at the beginning of the bull trend.
Every large vertical x column had a target that did get hit except for the last signal, and it still came pretty damn close.
Here is some food for thought. What if you have a stock whose projection is that it is going to zero. Would or could that indicate a bottom?
Right now AMD is projected to go to zero.
It'd be interesting to see the charts of stocks that actually went to zero before the fact.
For AMD, at some point INTC will just give them a cash infusion to avoid the regulators.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Here is some food for thought. What if you have a stock whose projection is that it is going to zero. Would or could that indicate a bottom?
Right now AMD is projected to go to zero.
I'm also curious if anyone bought any UPS today. We discussed that it would be a buy at 74 with a failed double bottom sell signal and a new triple top.
I've had my order in for a week, and wondered why it didn't trigger today. I had a stinking typo on my order and inadvertantly set the price at 75.00.
I bought UPS, ESRX and BBH today.
TMA has also been projected to go 0 for some time now. Without backtesting data, I just don't know how much we can trust this "box counting" method.
Close or High/Low?
HolyGrail,
Thanks for the great thread.
Are you still using Close or did you switch to High/Low?
If you use Close, how do you set stops? Wouldn't the High or Low price trigger it?
Thanks for your help!
Quote from HooLee:
I bought UPS, ESRX and BBH today.
TMA has also been projected to go 0 for some time now. Without backtesting data, I just don't know how much we can trust this "box counting" method.
Re: Close or High/Low?
Quote from cclee:
HolyGrail,
Thanks for the great thread.
Are you still using Close or did you switch to High/Low?
If you use Close, how do you set stops? Wouldn't the High or Low price trigger it?
Thanks for your help!
Quote from HolyGrail:
Good call on BBH(imo). I think you will probably have a pullback on esrx which could go all the way to 60, but it is a nice pattern as well.
In terms of box counting I will tell you something I did find to be somewhat true. The horizontal count is a more conservative count, and one which I would consider to be a more reliable count. There are times that you only have a long vertical count to work with so it is that or nothing. One thing is for sure. Targets are not straight up so you always have to figure good buying points to lower your risk. This is why I prefer to enter a pattern after a 3 box reversal. It has the least amount of risk.
FYI - people that are interested in swing trading can get free scans with stockcharts for many of the PnF patterns along with free EOD PnF charting.
Just look for stock scans on the left side of the front page.
Not a bad deal, huh?
Thanks blackchip, that might help some people. It was an uneventful day today for me. I am so far behind on getting the company taxes to the accountant. I doubt I will be able to trade much during the next few days. I did manage to put a limit order to buy UPS at 74.15, and it got hit before the end of the day.
Things remain bullish. Today we formed a double top buy signal on the bullish percent chart which should indicate the rally has legs. I don't know how long this will last, but as long as we have this index in the "x" column you should remain in your stocks.
I would much appreciate the feed back. Anybody has used ThinkorSwim -do they have p&F charts?Thanks
__________________
A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
They don't.
Thanks a lot for this thread. I have been playing with range bars and renko and I like this better. You have really helped me out!
Quote from baggerlord:
Thanks a lot for this thread. I have been playing with range bars and renko and I like this better. You have really helped me out!
__________________
A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
To keep things going.
i call this a HG bull trap.
the pattern is a bearish signal reversed.a flag in candlestick charting terminology
Quote from dentist007:
the pattern is a bearish signal reversed.a flag in candlestick charting terminology
I didn't even get a chance to trade today. Based on looking at the charts and where my signals would have been it looks like it would have been a good day.
Oh well, there will plenty more good days. It still looks like I might not be able to trade all of next week.
I've definitely let too many things slip by at the office.
I posted that ES chart in realtime. Just for comfirmation, do we have the same looking in this 0.5x3 chart? Please post yours if they are different. (Others are invited also.)
Quote from HooLee:
I posted that ES chart in realtime. Just for comfirmation, do we have the same looking in this 0.5x3 chart? Please post yours if they are different. (Others are invited also.)
Hoolee, Is that a Quote Tracker chart?
AmiBroker
Thanks. I have two P&F charts (ES/.50x3) for today one from QT and another from Investor RT and they look completely different!
Quote from HooLee:
AmiBroker
HG,
Compare this to your chart. Do you see the difference towards the end of the day?
Quote from taowave:
Hi HooLee,
I have AmiBroker and wasnt aware it had P&F capability..Did you program it yourself??
Thanks
Tao
Quote from zanjani1:
HG,
Compare this to your chart. Do you see the difference towards the end of the day?
Quote from HooLee:
Hello tao, Amibroker can draw a pf chart, but you do need to reprocess the database. I actually 'borrowed' and modified Graham Kavanagh's code for my own use, you can find those codes in the Library area.
Quote from mark1:
Sorry to bother you HooLee, but what do you mean by "
you do need to reprocess the database"?
You mean the database needs to be in ticks base? Can you be a bit more specific?
I know the 3 P&F codes you can find in the afl library by the way.
Thanks in advance!
PS.
HG thanks for your interesting thread
OK, now that we have the basics down it's time to show how to make money consistently.
To make money consistently you OBVIOUSLY have to know which signals to take and which ones to let go. We have to improve our odds, and when we have a trend we have to take FULL advantage of that trend.
Trends are very easy to see on a pnf chart. The strongest trends have at least 3 or 4 levels. A trendline does not get drawn on a chart until an x column goes above the last x column or vice versa.
Now before we get someone like marketsurfer in here telingl us that trends can only be seen in hindsight, let me answer with no that is not true. We know in pnf charting the potential first trend line and the extension of that line is in force until it is broken. Now when we are looking for trends we don't enter at that first trendline because there is a chance the next column will break it.
Here is a current chart of monsanto. It just started a level 2 trend. I like to enter on any buy signal from a level two, and add to my position any time we get a bounce off of that line. Now the risk we have is all the way down to the first trend line so you have to decide if this is within your risk parameters.
Here is a current chart of motorola. We currently have three levels of down trends. You will very rarely ever get more than 4 or 5 levels before we have a major pullback, but needless to say these trends can last for a very long time.
We basically want to stay short in this stock until the one of the following is reached.
1. our original target is hit.
2. we have an x column that exceeds a previous x column.
3. we have a trend line break.
The choice is yours.
Remember never draw a trendline until an x or o column exceeds its previous x or o column, and never take any pnf signal to enter unless that signal will become at least a level two entry.
Here is a current chart of hewlett packard.
If you notice there was a level 2 downtrend within this uptrend. Since we are still in an overall uptrend we would not have taken this trade, or if we had, we would have had a trailing stop on it once it reached profitablity or once the trend line broke.
The current situation is at 50 dollars this stock will now start a new level 2 uptrend. We are not there yet, but if we get there we should have a profitable trade.
Here is a current chart of Electronic Arts.
It just formed a level 2 uptrend. Would I take this trade? No.
It might do very well, but I don't like that after the first buy signal we got a retracement all the way back down with the next 0 column. I want to see very little retracement after the first buy signal before I will enter a trade on the second buy signal.
I also wouldn't take the trade because we are right at the major downtrend line.
edit: I should mention, I WOULD take the trade at a level 3.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Remember never draw a trendline until an x or o column exceeds its previous x or o column, and never take any pnf signal to enter unless that signal will become at least a level two entry.
You always draw the line regardless. Whether that line has meaning will not be determined until you get a second signal.
HG,
What do you use to scan for p&f chart patterns?
above 50 bucks it might be a buy.1% 1 box chart showing that there is a trendline and res area at $50.if 50 holds on a retrace from above then go long
Quote from HolyGrail:
You always draw the line regardless. Whether that line has meaning will not be determined until you get a second signal.
Quote from zanjani1:
HG,
What do you use to scan for p&f chart patterns?
Quote from HooLee:
Thank you, but what about the entry rule?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...&postid=1850304
I'm really confused by your question so I may not be answering it properly. If we are in an uptrend I am only looking for longs and vice versa. Since that chart was in an uptrend and I did get a failed double bottom sell, I would have taken it even though I did not have the second level uptrend yet. All failed double bottoms cannot have a level two uptrend by their very nature.
Quote from HooLee:
Agree.
You then enter long at "A" box, but it will conflic with this rule, no?
Quote from HolyGrail:
... All failed double bottoms cannot have a level two uptrend by their very nature.
The false double bottom sell and false double top buy signals are just an anomally that seems to work. Day in, day out trading requires a system of high probablity.
The higher probablity pnf signals come from level two trends.
s&p 500 looking bullish up to 1414
s&p 500 still looking bullish on the 1 box chart.bullish up to 1395 area
dow rallying to resistance in an orderly fashion
Quote from dentist007:
s&p 500 looking bullish up to 1414
Quote from dentist007:
dow rallying to resistance in an orderly fashion
__________________
Boib
Its easy to make a small fortune if you start with a big one
small squares are gaps
Quote from dentist007:
small squares are gaps
__________________
Boib
Its easy to make a small fortune if you start with a big one
charting program has the option to display gaps
Hey guys,
I've been trying to keep up this great thread, and on Thursday I started experimenting with P&F setups for both intra-day and swing/position trading.
What do you guys think of these entries:
XTO at $63
MT at $83 <-- Late on the longer term breakout, was planning to trade this intra-day but decided to keep it
What do you guys think? I'm starting small, just bought 2 calls for each of these.
Great thread guys!
XTO looks good. Because of my rules I would not have purchased it until it reached 65, but you have a strong stock with great relative strength.
xto.there is no breakout signal as yet.you might be able to go down to hourly data.but on my time horizon there is no breakout as yet.
MT is another strong stock with great relative strength. It still doesn't fit my personal critera yet, but that only has meaning to me.
What I don't like about it is that an entry here would force me to place my stop at 73. Way too much risk at this point.
very true; both of these entries were based on intra-day breakouts, and I liked the longer-term movement of these stocks so I pulled the trigger.
is this not a reliable way to enter these stocks?
for now I'm just stepping into the water, but I'm thinking of trading intraday with ~5 ATM contracts and position trading with 1-2 contracts
For intra-day I'm looking at triple, quadruple top breakouts/breakdowns on 25 cent box size, and triple/quadruple top breakouts/breakdowns on 1 dollar box size
longer term chart might be of some use
Holy Grail, what do you think?
Both of these entries were based on intra-day breakouts, and so my MT stop is 82.50 and my XTO stop is 62.50
I suppose since my entries were intra-day my exit should be as well?
I would trail it and ride it as long as you can. Especially mt which has had a nice straight up run.
xto
holygrail
great thread thanks for your efforts, learning some new ideas even though I always use pnf as a basis for my trading. On XTO ( using stockcharts daily) I have found entering early, before a double top break is dangerous, xto reminds me of my last before the break trade CMED, I entered around 57.50 only to be stopped out on the next colum of ooo's. I know it's obvious after the fact but at the time CMED looked and felt unstoppable. Anyways my rule is wait for confirmation to lower your risk then find a corrlated stock and buy otm put , sort of a modified pair trade in case things go horribly wrong ( again reducing the risk )you give up some profit buying put/call in opposite direction but my trading record over the years is spotted with occasional heavy losses right through my stops.
my 2 cents
Good advice Holy Grail, and dentist/blue, and everyone else
What do you guys think of increasing commitment after, say, a pullback of X% as long as the longer term trend is still intact?
The only thing is that this would obviously increase my cost basis and if (please no) it gapped down I would be a lot more exposed.
For example, I got in at 83 and saw a high of 86, if it were to get to 85 tomorrow on another intra-day breakout, do you think it would be too risky to get onto another contract?
Obviously these 1-2 contracts are small potatoes but after some practice trading the P&F charts I'd like to increase size.
I realize that everyone has different trading styles but I value all your inputs
I have no problem adding on a pullback as long as it is done with less contracts than your original purchase.
Sierra Charts will soon have P&F charts with the "x's" and "o's".
sierra charts
how soon?
how many days of intraday data does it hold.intraday on updata is expensive
dentist, is updata 100 pounds a month?
300 a year for eod.1000 for intraday
plus tax
Ever heard of Giggleswick?
near bedford
Near Skipton and Leeds. It is a tiny village.
I have to post this because it was so perfect.
We had a level 2 buy signal on the 4 x 3 chart of ym, and a false double bottom sell signal simultaneously. Needless to say it was a good trade.
a good area foe point and figure charting
Quote from HolyGrail:
I have to post this because it was so perfect.
We had a level 2 buy signal on the 4 x 3 chart of ym, and a false double bottom sell signal simultaneously. Needless to say it was a good trade.
Quote from HooLee:
...while ES was having a bullish catapult on 0.5x3 and an ascending triple top breakout on 0.75x3 chart.
In case anyone is curious, I exited MT when it was 86.04 and XTO when it was at 64.16. My rationale? I didn't want to think about what it was doing while I had classes ... next time will just institute trailing stops as Holy Grail prudently suggested.
You still did OK with the trades so congrats.
So far today was a day that if you took only level 2 and 3 pnf signals you would have had no losers. I will show a chart later today.
Here is a 4 x 3 chart of ym today. All level two and three pnf signals were profitable. Of course it all depends on how you play them, but there were some very decent gains to be made almost no matter how you played them.
Your best gain would have come from waiting for a reversal from bullish to bearish or vice versa, but to be honest I did not play them that way. I went with pre-defined targets.
edit: for those not following a level two means it is the second bullish or bearish signal in a row. Level 3 are three consecutive bullish or bearish signals in a row.
Potential swing trade
AIG just broke out at 48 with a level two trend.
Another potential swing trade.
This would be a great buy if it reaches 82.
3M ready for a level 2 breakout. Relative strength already broke out.
Put BAC on your watchlist. This is going to be a big move when it finally does happen.
Typically on a triangle breakout the breakout will occur in the direction of the last pnf signal which in this case would be a downside breakout.
Remember if you get stuck in a false breakout immediately take the other side because this will be a big move one way or the other. It's a coiled spring.
Here is a very interesting chart of Coach.
We have a potential bullish catapult forming should the stock hit 34. It will also be a level 2 buy signal at the same point.
OK, last chart. Comcast cable
This will be a level 2 buy at 21. Relative strength already broke out, and main downtrend will be broken.
No more free homework for the peanut gallery.
HG, There is one topic that I think deserves more discussion. What "expectancy" ( as per Van Tharp’s book “Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom") can one expect from this trading methodology? What is your target and/or historical risk/reward ratio? Do you subscribe to a predefined formula? Do you use R multiples (how much you win or lose on a trade as a percentage of your initial risk) to monitor your performance? I realize we all have different trading styles, which will have a direct impact on our results but it doesn't hurt to discuss it and compare notes.
Quote from zanjani1:
HG, There is one topic that I think deserves more discussion. What "expectancy" ( as per Van Tharp’s book “Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom") can one expect from this trading methodology? What is your target and/or historical risk/reward ratio? Do you subscribe to a predefined formula? Do you use R multiples (how much you win or lose on a trade as a percentage of your initial risk) to monitor your performance? I realize we all have different trading styles, which will have a direct impact on our results but it doesn't hurt to discuss it and compare notes.
As far as I am concerned this thread is finished. I really don't believe I have anything else to contribute. I want to thank everyone for participating, and I sincerely do hope this has helped someone.
I am leaving you with a synopsis of our discussion.
Good Trading & Good Luck!!!
HG -
Thank you very much for initiating this thread and putting together this summary!
In opening your attached document, there are many large blank areas. Are there supposed to be charts in those blank areas?
Thanks again.
Sandy
It's been a great read and informative thread. Continued profitability to you.
Thanks for your unselfishness.
Quote from HolyGrail:
As far as I am concerned this thread is finished. I really don't believe I have anything else to contribute. I want to thank everyone for participating, and I sincerely do hope this has helped someone.
I am leaving you with a synopsis of our discussion.
Good Trading & Good Luck!!!
__________________
Boib
Its easy to make a small fortune if you start with a big one
Quote from sandygray66:
HG -
Thank you very much for initiating this thread and putting together this summary!
In opening your attached document, there are many large blank areas. Are there supposed to be charts in those blank areas?
Thanks again.
Sandy
Quote from Boib:
Excellent thread Holy Grail;
Well presented without the usual ET flaming.
If anything could be added it would be a dissertation on how you manage your trades. I realize that trade management is a personal thing but an overview of how you manage your trades would be nice to see.
How do you determine where to put your targets and how you decide whether to go for a spedific target or let the trade stop itself out at the first reversal signal.
When and where do you add to a trade.
Thank you for your time and effort.
B
I should add if we have a really long column I will not allow myself to lose that entire column. I expect a small retracement after a long column so I will set a stop one box below the halfway point of a long column for protection. If the column is more than 20 boxes I wll sell on the first reversal.
I should also mention when I say I follow the trend I mean I will follow it forever until I get a bearish signal if I am long, or a bullish signal if I am short.
Revised synopsis without blank pages.
Great thread ...... HG
sending some good karma your way
Thank you Grail Guy.
You have been a great help. Always nice to have a different view of the market.
Good trading:
B
__________________
Boib
Its easy to make a small fortune if you start with a big one
I have to be honest. This has to be one of the first flame-free threads of this length. Thank you all for that.
Good Luck to each and every one of you!!!!!
Quote from HolyGrail:
Revised synopsis without blank pages.
For swing traders - SWX - looks like a potential failed double bottom.
What do you think?
FWIW, I downloaded the synopsis and there are no problems. I see plenty of images pasted into the document, and some white space where it seems normal. Otherwise, it looks fine to me.
Quote from sandygray66:
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this revision seems to be filled with blanks also (one new chart, and the two that appeared the first time are gone this time).
Are the chart insertions large files (like more than 1 meg)? Maybe that's causing a problem when the word file is uploaded to ET?
Quote from blackchip:
For swing traders - SWX - looks like a potential failed double bottom.
What do you think?
Quote from riaamaan:
FWIW, I downloaded the synopsis and there are no problems. I see plenty of images pasted into the document, and some white space where it seems normal. Otherwise, it looks fine to me.
I like to find them before they break out.
Other than that you don't see any red flags?
Quote from HolyGrail:
Not until it makes it to 31.
The only red flag is the stock is an extremely slow mover. It may take a while. What you do have going for you is gas will probably continue to move up.
Quote from sandygray66:
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but this revision seems to be filled with blanks also (one new chart, and the two that appeared the first time are gone this time).
Are the chart insertions large files (like more than 1 meg)? Maybe that's causing a problem when the word file is uploaded to ET?
__________________
Boib
Its easy to make a small fortune if you start with a big one
Quote from HolyGrail:
As far as I am concerned this thread is finished. I really don't believe I have anything else to contribute. I want to thank everyone for participating, and I sincerely do hope this has helped someone.
I am leaving you with a synopsis of our discussion.
Good Trading & Good Luck!!!
Quote from Stealth Trader:
Excellent thread! You are, without a doubt, a trading scholar and a gentleman.
If nothing else, you have shown that less can indeed be more, i.e., KISS!!!!
Best wishes,
st
Quote from Stealth Trader:
Excellent thread! You are, without a doubt, a trading scholar and a gentleman.
If nothing else, you have shown that less can indeed be more, i.e., KISS!!!!
Best wishes,
st
Fantastic thread, HG! Thanks for sharing your ideas and knowledge.
A couple of questions . . . .
What is your win% of trades? What is the avg win amount vs the avg loss amount. I know it does'nt backtest well, your approximation is fine.
I've gone through 60 pages or so, could'nt find any mention of these numbers.
I noticed I didn't fully answer Boib's question.
When do I add to the trade.
When I am shooting for targets, I am full in and full out. No adding.
For Level 2 trades it depends. If I am going against the predominant trend I do not add. If I am with the trend I wait for the first reversal and do not add until that reversal reverses.
Sounds complicated but it really is not. The attached chart explains my gibberish.
Thank you for your comments Maestro. They are appreciated.
HG:
I would like to ask a question about risk control.
This mornings ES charts show a sell signal at 1360.50.
Would you have taken this trade as the risk was high. That is a reversal signal would have been 1366.
Thanks
B
__________________
Boib
Its easy to make a small fortune if you start with a big one
Quote from Boib:
HG:
I would like to ask a question about risk control.
This mornings ES charts show a sell signal at 1360.50.
Would you have taken this trade as the risk was high. That is a reversal signal would have been 1366.
Thanks
B
Quote from HolyGrail:
That would have been considered a sync trade. When I take a sync trade I have a flat stop(normally 2.5 points in this volatility) and a flat target (normally 2-3 points.
I would not have taken that trade because we were close to a pivot point at 1358.75, which would only yield 1.25. I would have looked for an entry below that as a second level trade.
__________________
Boib
Its easy to make a small fortune if you start with a big one
HG, I have a quick question about the sync trade. You said all three charts should be about to show the same signal. Do you wait for a signal from all three or do you take the trade with only 2 signals? In your example it looks as if you take the trade without the third signal.
What I try to do is look where all three will trigger and pick the signal in the middle.
If the 1.0 will trigger at 1350.25
and the .75 triggers at 1350.00
and the .5 triggers at 1349.75
then I will pick 1350 as my entry.
Got it. Thanks. I was a little confused because in the synopsis you said (below quote) you take the "average" of two signals (.5 and .75) for entry.
"What I do is take the smallest chart and next to the smallest chart and average the two. I place my order at that spot."
holygrail
i have put youre synopsis in pdf form.it looks like it is easier to read.great stuff...many thanks
open office converts doc to pdf.it is a free download from sun
Quote from dentist007:
holygrail
i have put youre synopsis in pdf form.it looks like it is easier to read.great stuff...many thanks
lets see the nq trades.thanks
Bear in mind it's a new instrument for me so my stops and trailing stops need to be worked on.
posting a chart so people can see where the trades were taken.
the time on the horizontal axis is london time.not ny time.the charting package is actually french
HG, I am having difficulty matching some of the trades with actual signals on the chart. for example I don't see a sell signal at 1809.25 or a buy at 1802. Can you explain some of the trades that don't correspond to signals on the chart? I assume different box values were used for your trades.
Yes, I used a 1.0, .75 and .5 chart. I'm at the beach right now. I took nothing but level two trades and sync trades. Look at it from that basis. If you are still having trouble I will try to recreate the charts when I get back.
at the beach...!!!
we had snow in london last sunday.....
mind you...this is unusual for april
nas 100.i have put the tick chart .0.75 by 3 hilo data.it is for 2 days.thursday and friday.the blue line is market open on friday.
you can see the trend into friday quite nicely.i have put the chart in pdf form so it can be enlarged etc.it is much clearer in pdf than png or gif
dentist007, E-mail from this site is getting caught in my spam box so I just got your message and replied. Sorry about the late response.
HG,
It would be very helpful if you could attach today's chart for ES (.75x3) and show us which trades you would have taken with your entry points, targets and stops using the P&F signals discussed here.
Quote from zanjani1:
HG,
It would be very helpful if you could attach today's chart for ES (.75x3) and show us which trades you would have taken with your entry points, targets and stops using the P&F signals discussed here.
HG,
Although you didn't trade today, it would be good to see how you would have traded and to know the rationale and logic behind your entry points, targets and stops.
Investor r/t will allow me to play back the day. I have no idea how the day went other than the final total. I will post the trades I would have made in real time tonight. I will post my trades as I take them. Who knows, I may lose money, but we will see. I can make the program go at just about any speed I choose. I will make 1 second =20 seconds so I will not have to stay up the entire trading day in real time. It should be fun. I also will note that I never trade before 9am.
PS Please don't plan on me doing this on a regular basis because it just isn't going to happen. I am pretty much done with this thread except for questions that may arise.
Thanks. I really appreciate your input. This has been extremely helpful.
OK, first some ground rules of what I am going to do. I will only trade 1 contract on all setups with the exception of false double bottom buy or sell signals. I will trade two contracts on those setups.
First setup is a sync trade at approximately 9am. The chart below is what it currently looks like. I have no idea whether it is profitable or not. The white chart is the 1.0, the .75 is grey, and the .5 is green.
Like I said previously. I have to anticipate the trade. I would have taken this trade at 1334. 1334.25 was the trigger on the .75 chart, and 1333.50 was the trigger on the .5. The 1.0 shows it has much room to go down even though it is not near a sell signal.
My stop would be based on the .5 chart because I have a better stop I can use. The stop would be at a double top buy signal on the .5 or 1336. I will have a 2.0 target with a trailing stop. I will ALSO PLACE AN ORDER TO BUY AT 2 CONTRACTS AT 1336 IN ANTICIPATION OF A POTENTIAL FAILED DOUBLE BOTTOM BUY SIGNAL ON THE .5 CHART.
edit: I should also mention my trailing stops do not begin for 6 ticks.
Trade is over. Target hit at 9:16:31 Old buy order at 1336 cancelled.
Sync trade 2 points
cumulative for the day 2 points.
ok we just got another sell signal on the .5. I would not take this signal. The reason is we have a long column on the .75 will no pullback, and the 1.0 is very close to support as well. It still may turn into a trade, but I would need a pullback on the .75 and then a new sell signal, or a sell signal on the 1.0. I want at least two charts with sell signals, and preferably three.
OK we have two potential trades that could occur.
We could have a 2 contract failed double bottom on the green chart. We would place an order right now at 1332.
We would also place a sell order at 1328.75 because the .5 will trigger a sell at 1329 and the .75 will trigger at 1328.25
The two contract buy signal triggered at 1332. We are now in a trade with a stop at 1329.
Long trade did not work out. We lost 3 points with two contracts or 6 points.
We now stand cumulative -4 points for the day.
A new sync trade was triggered at our stop loss. We are now short with a two point target.
Edit: we are in at 1329 stop at 1332.75
2 point Target hit.
cumulative for day -2 points
A potential failed double top on the .5. 2 contracts placed if we hit 1325.
short order placed at 1325 2 contracts. Target 1322. stop 1328
2 contract buy order also placed for possible failed double bottom at 1337. Stop of current order moved to 1337
Stopped out of 2 contracts for 2 points, or -4 points.
cumulative for the day -6 points.
We are now in 2 contracts long at 1327. Target is 1329 based on last resistance. Initial stop at 1334.50.
Target hit for 2 points with two contracts or +4.
Cumulative for the day -2
The trade worked out, but the r/r was terrible on that one and I shouldn't have taken the trade.
I will take the trade on the break out of this pattern because either one will be a triple top or bottom.
Breakout occurs. We are long 1 contract at 1330. Our target is 1332 because we should reach the next highest column of x's which is at 1332. Our stop is at 1327.50. We also place a two contract sell order at the same price in case we have a failed double top.
If you notice the red line in the green chart that is a previous pivot point. In a trending day I would have made that my target, but today is obviously a chop day so I am shooting for smaller targets.
Anyway target is hit for 2 points.
cumulative for day is 0
as it turns out we exceeded the red line and it would have been a much better trade.
Next trade is a sync trade with everything in a buy signal. this is normally a good setup. We are in at 1335.25. Stop will be used on a double bottom sell signal on the .5 which will be 1331.50(we are using this because if we used the .75 we would have to go down to 1329.
Target is the top of the last higher x column which would be on the .75 1338.75
Stopped out for a loss of 3.75 points.
Cumlative for the day -3.75.
we now have a 2 contract order placed at 1334.50 in case we have a failed double bottom on the green chart.
We also have a sell order for one contract at 1331.25
Failed double bottom buy triggered. We are in 2 contracts at 1334.50 with a stop at 1331. Target is 1338.75
End of day reached at 1337.50. We close our trade with a profit of 3 points times two contracts or +6 points.
cumulative for the day 1.25 points.
When you consider commissions I am sure we are at breakeven or less.
Low range day.
Low range profits.
That's all folks!!!!
My brain is now officially fried just like it is at the end of every trading day.
I can tell you right now I will not do this again. If I traded NQ all day today, and then did this, I would be ready for the funny farm.
Do you mean posting and trading?
Quote from tyler19:
Do you mean posting and trading?
Yeah I like to turn off all distractions when I trade. It just becomes to much, sometimes the music even distracts me from my focus.
HG,
This really helped me understand your thought process behind each trade. Thanks for putting so much effort in to it.
Outstanding job HG ! Thanks so much for your time.
Well I hope it helped. I do want to emphaisize that on high range days your targets will tend to be so much higher....typically 4 to 5 points are not out of the realm for false breakouts and 3 to 4 points for sync trades.
Strong trend days you can sit on 2 or three trades for the entire day.
the point and figure method is just another way of presenting data.candlesticks are another way.line/close is another way
so:enclosed is a point and figure chart of the s & p 500.its 30 day momentum.you can see that moomentum is definitely in an uptrend
no.i forgot it is 50 day momentum.
you can use the p/f method for any oscillator and cumulative lines.ie obv
it can make divergences easier to spot and as there is a filter.it does wipe out the noise.it does not work well with smoothed oscillators ie slow stochs or macd
here we have a chart of 14 day rsi of the s & p 500.chart is 0.5 by 3.you can quite clearly see ob and os areas
and enclosed is a 21 day commodity channel index chart of the s & p 500.
point and figure enhances analysis
there is no other chart format that gives you as much inormation on the instrument you are trading
no real b/o or action in the obv chart.could be a false breakout
I read through this thread, but one question I still have is where do you get your stock ideas? Do you run a stock scan for both bullish or bearish stocks?
How is the scan designed? I have been trading stocks using fa for awhile, but maybe using some price action will help me become more profitable.
One other thought, do you think it would be worth it to say buy a vertical put option on a stock that gives you a sell signal and/or buy a vertical call option on a stock that gives you a buy signal? Or because you will be stuck in the option till time expires, it is not worth it?
There is a scanner in bulls eye broker that looks for specific signals. I prefer to look at charts and anticipate breakouts before they happen. I look at 824 charts every day. As far as options are concerned, I have no reason to believe it couldn't work.
Ok, thanks. One of the accounts that I manage is in a big broker's account that does not allow shorting and charges around $ 35 commission. So I think I will need to look for just long stock trades when the market is going up, and then buy one of those negative index funds like the QID when the market is going down.
I am currently holding some long term positions that I will need to trade out of, but then I will try the strategy with a portion of the account say 30% once I am able to free it up.
holy grail...may i congratulate you on the excellent rule .
waiting for the second buy/sell signal in succession.
you are right.it keeps you out of the chop
many thanks
Hey thank you for your contribution to this thread as well Dentist.
Take a look at another thing I have been experimenting with for the last two days with success. I have been taking the first signal if and only if there is no 0 column resistance close by, and we are only dealing with the previous x column high. It seems that in a very high percentage of cases (so far 12 out of 13) the target of at least 1 box below last high x column will be reached.
An example is given below.
Now here is one with an 0 column close by that I would not take even if it was a second signal. I might take it after it exceeded 0 column.
yes.so the format being to discount any res columnsif they are not close by.ie more than 3 columns away.if you are long.
vice versa if you are short
was the bullish % in a breakout buy mode.ie did you have the wind behind you on that trade.?
hey all,
Ive been looking into using pnf charting as a basis for longer term, position trading, where I'd want to capture a couple (or more) dollars as opposed to a few cents (relatively) trading intraday .
While I've only read posts regarding intraday trading , do you think this method would be conducive to longer term trading ?
Thanks again for the insights holy Grail and dentist and everyone else !
h
I have been doing this with es and nq the last two days. The chart I posted was just a quick example I could find in stocks.
Although it would be an added bonus to have bullish percent and relative strength on your side, I believe it will hit the target regardless. I obviously still have more work to do on this, but it looks VERY promising.
If there seems to be any nuances that need to be adhered to I will definitely come back to this thread.
When you are trading the emini's today take a look for this type of price action and see if you notice the same things that I did.
Quote from yayt:
hey all,
Ive been looking into using pnf charting as a basis for longer term, position trading, where I'd want to capture a couple (or more) dollars as opposed to a few cents (relatively) trading intraday .
While I've only read posts regarding intraday trading , do you think this method would be conducive to longer term trading ?
Thanks again for the insights holy Grail and dentist and everyone else !
h
es looks like it is going down to 1381 area.atight range,i think.difficult to trade.?
Quote from dentist007:
es looks like it is going down to 1381 area.atight range,i think.difficult to trade.?
we had a really untradeable range on the ftse100.a nice downtrend started as soon as the us opened
holy grail.i have emailed the queen of england asking her to give you a special commendation for that trading rule.consecutive signals.it certainly keeps you out of the chop.bravo
had no reply from her as yet
This is in the mail...
Thank you. Just got back from Vegas and soon found out that there are no sync trades or level two trades in blackjack.
I really enjoyed this thread. It looks like it has gone quiet. I thought I would bring some new life into it. My posts will simply be pnf charts. They are all in hindsight. The idea is to help create some steadfast rules that would enable traders to capture these moves. I would welcome any comments on how you would have played these charts. Please note these charts are not mine but borrowed from charthub. I don't have a live pnf platform
another crude oil chart
es chart
1 box reversal chart.0.4% box size.you can see the price started a relatively smooth uptrend from the base of the trendline in blue.consecutive signals showing the buyers are keen.short retracement columns.there is a res area at 1424 ish
you can see from previous columns to the blue trendline that sharp moves up and down,showing indecision.price wants to go higher smoothly now
i dont have the nymex futures.i only have the etf oilb.looking like a triangle is forming
What is the main reason/benefit for using a % box value?
% box sizes.just use when i am scanning.because each stock has different price moves,then i dont want to keep adjusting box sizes.to see the fine detail then go to arithmetic box sizes
Any opinions on these charts would be greatly appreciated. Its always a pleasure to understand the reasoning behind fellow point and figure technicians. If its possible to post more than one chart per post please let me know how.
bund
crude oil
dax cash
djia cash
e-mini-russell
e-mini-sp400
es future
eurjpy
euronext100
eurusd
ftse
minigold
ndx
s&p cash
stoxx50e
usdjpy
usdjpy
do u want opinions or actual trading signals.what is youre time horizon.????
ok.so here is one tipped today by a leading guru in the u.k.
glaxosmithkline/gsk.price is in pence.close price on friday was 1152p.ie £11-52p
i have put the 5p by 3 reversal chart.now u can see price moving up with new columns.consecutive double-tops.however,price has approached a major resistance area at 1160.also i am not happy that the double-tops dont seem to give moer than 3 box advance before giving a reversal column .so to me this should not be traded just yet.
anybody else thinking the same.?
looking at gsk on a 1 box reversal chart.then u can see the chart is not very bullish as yet
holy grail.u got any ideas for some input fo this one.?
PnFguy,
I like those InvestorRT charts. What settings should I use for fixed income intraday? Like US Ten Year.
PnF shows support/resistance and breakouts real well. I trade futures and getting intra day settings right is tricky.
thanks
I want to thank all the fellow Point and Figure technicians for their commentary. I'm only posting charts for the educational benefit. The two heads better than one concept. I would never trade on opinions of others. I have very strong rules that I try to never deviate from. However, I may be able to learn something new from a fresh objective. I guess the best way to respond is to answer three quick questions. 1. Your opinion (Bullish-Bearish)
2. How you would trigger an entry on this specific chart 3. Where your stop would be
If anyone has more ideas on relevant questions for each posted chart that would be of benefit to all lets give it a try.
My take on GSK
1. Kind of neutral its right at key resis
2. In a ideal world I would have been long at 1025p and taking profits right here at 1155
3. Stop would be 990 on close
Here is a great resource that hasn't been mentioned yet in this thread. Its a free 60m webinar on point and figure done by the CME.
http://www.cme.com/extlt/createAcct...ferringUrl=null
gsk h-l range pnf chart
Regarding the 10yr note. I would trade it on 4 different settings.
1. 2tick/3 reversal (H+L+C/3)
2. 4tick/3 reversal (H+L+C/3)
3. 2tick/3 reversal (High low range)
4. 4tick/3 reversal (High low range)
Quote from pnf.guy:
I want to thank all the fellow Point and Figure technicians for their commentary. I'm only posting charts for the educational benefit. The two heads better than one concept. I would never trade on opinions of others. I have very strong rules that I try to never deviate from. However, I may be able to learn something new from a fresh objective. I guess the best way to respond is to answer three quick questions. 1. Your opinion (Bullish-Bearish)
2. How you would trigger an entry on this specific chart 3. Where your stop would be
If anyone has more ideas on relevant questions for each posted chart that would be of benefit to all lets give it a try.
My take on GSK
1. Kind of neutral its right at key resis
2. In a ideal world I would have been long at 1025p and taking profits right here at 1155
3. Stop would be 990 on close
Here is a great resource that hasn't been mentioned yet in this thread. Its a free 60m webinar on point and figure done by the CME.
http://www.cme.com/extlt/createAcct...ferringUrl=null
Now here is the chart I would have used for GSK. I would not buy this stock at this time because it has negative rsi and it has not broken out yet.
good point of veiw.the price chart and rel strength have to be in agreement
Quote from HolyGrail:
Now here is the chart I would have used for GSK. I would not buy this stock at this time because it has negative rsi and it has not broken out yet.
bulls eye broker for swing trading(no real time charts), and investor RT for day trading.
thanks for a very informative thread HG.
Has anybody used the charts from XOcharts.com?
Pretty basic. However, I can't figure out how to check commodities on it. ( I need to figure out what CSV files are)
checked the stocks in one of my portfolios, and almost all of them are in an uptrend. (I'll have to call him and see if he uses P&F)
Now I would like to figure out how to use it to check commodities so I can check on my broker when he recommends some options I trade in.
If you keep this up HG, I may be able to S.C. my broker someday.
Quote from staffpro:
in your opinion what is better to use the closing price or the high/low option?
thanks, awesome thread learned so much so far, thankyou so much
Quote from WyckoffTrader:
Nice thread you have here...... I was introduced to P and F while in a program in SF about 7years ago and this program was based on Richard Wyckoff and he had his own PF style.......what I found after many 1000's of hour and ideas that we where trying to automate is that P and F will not allow for volume or any normal indicators.....Thus I use Renko in conjuction with RNF and the combined tools are better than anything out there......I will post some ideas that we have tested and give a few of our issues that we have worked out over the last 3 years. Trade well and good luck to all using this alternative price action method. this is the right track.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Renko didn't help me and I am familiar with the wyckoff method as well.
If you don't mind, I don't want to change the direction of this thread. If you start a thread on your method I promise I will read it.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Here is a great trade.
Leh
Double top breakout and you only need a 30 point stop
Quote from Goinglite:
Here's a PnF Chart from Sierra.
Quote from slacker:
Good luck finding a commercial P&F package. I had to write my own to get something I liked.
The problem is that most charting packages are built around a OpenHighLowClose data framework and hours:minutes:seconds and it makes them difficult to render p&f correctly.
Most commercial packages do not deal with p&f trend lines and convert OHLC bars to columns which loses column data. You really need to build the columns as the data comes in to really see choppy areas correctly and to have trend lines work (IMHO). Here is a screenshot of YM late this afternoon showing YM 1x3 boxes. Also on the screen is Time&Sales for ES, YM and NQ. I use p&f to complement other screens and not by itself.
Good trading! Great thread HG!
Quote from nevadan:
Great thread HG. Someone earlier in the thread recommended du Plessis's book on P&F. I use the 1 box reversal method in the ES and thought it might be of interest here. The graphic is a comparison of a 1x1 and a 0.5x3 of part of last Thursday. The one box reversal is the only chart where X's and O's can occupy the same column. It allows for a pullback of one box and any increment up to but not including 2 boxes without changing the direction of the chart. This acts as a filter for minor pullbacks while continuing the trend. The small retracements can be seen as an ascending trend of X's with one O under them or descending O's with one X above. I like the way it condenses the chart and I think makes it easier to see patterns forming.
These charts are courtesy of a programmer friend of mine, but I saw on the link to Linnsoft that 5pillars posted that they have the one box chart for anyone that might be interested in following up on this.
Quote from pnf.guy:
I really enjoyed this thread. It looks like it has gone quiet. I thought I would bring some new life into it. My posts will simply be pnf charts. They are all in hindsight. The idea is to help create some steadfast rules that would enable traders to capture these moves. I would welcome any comments on how you would have played these charts. Please note these charts are not mine but borrowed from charthub. I don't have a live pnf platform
Quote from osho67:
I would much appreciate the feed back. Anybody has used ThinkorSwim -do they have p&F charts?Thanks
Quote from HolyGrail:
As far as I am concerned this thread is finished. I really don't believe I have anything else to contribute. I want to thank everyone for participating, and I sincerely do hope this has helped someone.
I am leaving you with a synopsis of our discussion.
Good Trading & Good Luck!!!
Absolutely not. Please continue. I only meant my contributions will be limited from this point forward.
Hello HolyGrail,
Like many who have written on this thread, I'd like to offer my thanks for your contribution. Although it is probably a little too soon to tell for certain, so far using PnF charts has made a very significant difference to my trading.
A couple of comments:
1. Helps me know when not to trade. It is easier to see when the markets are not moving enough for momentum / breakout style trading. I have MUCH smaller drawdowns on bad days.
2. Helps me clearly identify the higher probablility trades. It's helped me push my win ratio from the low 60s% to mid 70%, which is the difference between a lot of frustration, and decent gains most nights.
3. It's helped my confidence and discipline because the rules are easier to apply.
4. Finally, the boxes cut down on the market noise, especially because I trade the HSI a lot.
I mainly trade the asian markets as I live on the east coast and have a day job. Between 9 and 10:30 the HSI and SPI offer pretty good trading. Tonight was a good example. The triangle that broke to the downside around 11pm est was a thing of beauty. More than 300 pts in around 30 minutes (~usd 2k / contract).
I just want to say I'm very grateful for turning me on to PnF charts.
Sincerely, b
Quote from byzantium:
Hello HolyGrail,
Like many who have written on this thread, I'd like to offer my thanks for your contribution. Although it is probably a little too soon to tell for certain, so far using PnF charts has made a very significant difference to my trading.
A couple of comments:
1. Helps me know when not to trade. It is easier to see when the markets are not moving enough for momentum / breakout style trading. I have MUCH smaller drawdowns on bad days.
2. Helps me clearly identify the higher probablility trades. It's helped me push my win ratio from the low 60s% to mid 70%, which is the difference between a lot of frustration, and decent gains most nights.
3. It's helped my confidence and discipline because the rules are easier to apply.
4. Finally, the boxes cut down on the market noise, especially because I trade the HSI a lot.
I mainly trade the asian markets as I live on the east coast and have a day job. Between 9 and 10:30 the HSI and SPI offer pretty good trading. Tonight was a good example. The triangle that broke to the downside around 11pm est was a thing of beauty. More than 300 pts in around 30 minutes (~usd 2k / contract).
I just want to say I'm very grateful for turning me on to PnF charts.
Sincerely, b
Quote from byzantium:
Hello HolyGrail,
Like many who have written on this thread, I'd like to offer my thanks for your contribution. Although it is probably a little too soon to tell for certain, so far using PnF charts has made a very significant difference to my trading.
A couple of comments:
1. Helps me know when not to trade. It is easier to see when the markets are not moving enough for momentum / breakout style trading. I have MUCH smaller drawdowns on bad days.
2. Helps me clearly identify the higher probablility trades. It's helped me push my win ratio from the low 60s% to mid 70%, which is the difference between a lot of frustration, and decent gains most nights.
3. It's helped my confidence and discipline because the rules are easier to apply.
4. Finally, the boxes cut down on the market noise, especially because I trade the HSI a lot.
I mainly trade the asian markets as I live on the east coast and have a day job. Between 9 and 10:30 the HSI and SPI offer pretty good trading. Tonight was a good example. The triangle that broke to the downside around 11pm est was a thing of beauty. More than 300 pts in around 30 minutes (~usd 2k / contract).
I just want to say I'm very grateful for turning me on to PnF charts.
Sincerely, b
Hey all,
A recent trade I made (forgot to post about it when I was thinking about it) was CMI when it was at 58. I closed a couple days ago when it was at 69 (got pissed when it kept going up to 70 but happy now, haha)
The problem is, the signal came a couple days before its earnings came out, and while I knew this because I looked into the company and did some research before I went in, I thought it'd be helpful to warn people when holding onto longer term P&F based positions that news events (that you can know about in advance) may cause a P&F chart to fail you (like if earnings were TERRIBLE, compared to market expectations).
Anyway, other trades I made around the same time were long NE, IBN, COH, CELG. These are either underwater or about breakeven, but more than offset by CMI.
With regards to position trading, does it seem feasibly to take the private equity approach, and hope for lots of breakevens/slight losses and 1 or 2 homeruns?
Ideally, I would like to use P&F to do position trading which are less stressful and time consuming than intraday trades.
If you are going to do position trading I strongly recommend that you keep some type of bullish % charts, and keep a pnf chart on the sector of the stock in question and make sure that both sector and stock are bullish or bearish.
Makes a lot of sense.
On a side note, has anyone used Quotetracker's PnF charts? It's what I use when I pretend to be an intraday trader.
Do you think it is possible to gather years of daily open/high/low/close data on the universe of stocks and do backtesting on the results of the various P&F strategies?
This could be another contribution to the thread, although with intraday data (off Yahoo) it possibly wouldn't provide much confirmation to intraday traders.
I am starting to look into this now, I think the biggest hurdle will be programming the actual rules and the nuances each have
I've used quotetracker before. It was better than I what I was using in the past, but does not compare to investor rt. Of course one is free and the other you have to pay for.
I'm sure you can backtest pnf, I just wouldn't want to be the one writing the program. It can't be easy.
I read a back test study a long time ago that went into some depth and I think someone even posted a link to it somewhere in this thread but it did not cover stocks.
I may get flamed for this but I'm not a big fan of back testing (however, I forward test every day).
Quote from HolyGrail:
I've used quotetracker before. It was better than I what I was using in the past, but does not compare to investor rt. Of course one is free and the other you have to pay for.
I'm sure you can backtest pnf, I just wouldn't want to be the one writing the program. It can't be easy.
hmm, I'll look into IRT.
Why are you not a fan of back testing? To avoid unrealistic fills, I want to assume buying/selling at the close and only use intra-day data.
What else can we do to make sure the results are accurate? I think this is a worthwhile endeavor, it'd make me more comfortable risking my money if I had some confirmation that the strategy works approximately X% of the time (and X > .60, lol)
i think to backtest a trading strategy must also include the bullish % reading,and also its p/f stance when the trade was taken.the bp% reading gives you a look at what the follow thru of the trade that was put on.
so some kind of correlation between the p/f signal on the stock with some bp% in the final analyis
is anybody in agreement with this.?
Quote from dentist007:
i think to backtest a trading strategy must also include the bullish % reading,and also its p/f stance when the trade was taken.the bp% reading gives you a look at what the follow thru of the trade that was put on.
so some kind of correlation between the p/f signal on the stock with some bp% in the final analyis
is anybody in agreement with this.?
Is there a way to get this percentage reading, similar to downloading the historical daily data from Yahoo? I'm not really sure what Bullish % is
I think the easiest one to test first would be double top/bottom breakout/breakdown, with a stop at the last column of O's?
You can get B% charts at www.stockcharts.com. Also check out www.investorsintelligence.com who invented the B% charts. They also have RS charts for stocks and their sectors.
Holy Grail,
My 1st post on this thread......I have been following it for a while, and have purchased 2 books on the subject (Dorsey - the book is good, but he tries to promote his services too much, and (Du Plessis - this is a great book !).
In any event, I have a quick question for you. When you trade ES using P&F, I see that you use 0.5, 0.75, and 1.0 box size. For the purposes of day-trading or scalping ES, are you using a 3-box reversal for each of the 3 box sizes ??
Hence, for this instrument, are you just trading based on these 3 screens (0.5 x 3, 0.75 x 3, and 1.0 x 3) OR are you using different variants of the reversal size as well ?
Also, if you trade YM intraday, what P&F parameters would you recommend for that ?
Many thanks in advance, and thanks for putting so much detail into this thread.
Best Regards
__________________
"Those who can't do teach, those who can't teach, teach Gym."
Quote from yayt:
hmm, I'll look into IRT.
Why are you not a fan of back testing? To avoid unrealistic fills, I want to assume buying/selling at the close and only use intra-day data.
What else can we do to make sure the results are accurate? I think this is a worthwhile endeavor, it'd make me more comfortable risking my money if I had some confirmation that the strategy works approximately X% of the time (and X > .60, lol)
Quote from zanjani1:
You can get B% charts at www.stockcharts.com. Also check out www.investorsintelligence.com who invented the B% charts. They also have RS charts for stocks and their sectors.
hayman,
I can't speak for holygrail but I day trade with P&F charts and it looks like he is doing something similar to what I do (using different time frames).
So if you were asking me...then I would answer yes, you have all the charts up at the same time and you are watching all of them, the different box sizes give you different time horizons and filter out noise differently. I mostly use a reversal of 3 on my charts.
Quote from subq:
I wasn't trying to discourage you from back testing it. I would be interested to see your results.
Hello johnpinochet,
The most common box sizes that I trade are:
HSI: 10
For HSI it varies between 8 and 15 to characterize the price behavior, but I almost always feel more comfortable at 10 for trading.
SPI: 2 or 3
I prefer 2, which offers more trade opportunities, but 3 offers cleaner signals. You can only trade 3 on volatile nights.
STW: .2
Not my favorite index to trade. It doesn't trend as long as the SPI (but it doesn't have as many false breakouts either). It also doesn't have the noise of the HSI that makes it so easy to get in and out of a position. It does often have one or two big moves each night. .2 let's me scalp a bit, and get in on the significant moves.
Quote from byzantium:
Hello johnpinochet,
The most common box sizes that I trade are:
HSI: 10
For HSI it varies between 8 and 15 to characterize the price behavior, but I almost always feel more comfortable at 10 for trading.
SPI: 2 or 3
I prefer 2, which offers more trade opportunities, but 3 offers cleaner signals. You can only trade 3 on volatile nights.
STW: .2
Not my favorite index to trade. It doesn't trend as long as the SPI (but it doesn't have as many false breakouts either). It also doesn't have the noise of the HSI that makes it so easy to get in and out of a position. It does often have one or two big moves each night. .2 let's me scalp a bit, and get in on the significant moves.
If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
crude oil pp
Bund h-l If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
Bund PP If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
DJI H-L If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
DJI PP If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
EMD H-L If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
ER2 If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
EUR-USD If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
EUR-JPY If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
EURONEXT 100 If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
FCAC If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
FDAX If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
FESX If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
FTSE If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
GOLD If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
NDX If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
NIKEI If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
SPX If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
U.S. 10YR If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
USD-JPY If any one tracks this market I would really like to hear your comments or even better please post up a chart with a few annotations.
auth
I am currently long AUTH based 1st on a P & F scan.
After coming up positive on some P & F scans that I ran, I then researched the stock and liked what I saw.
It is a tech stock with biometric patents which just won a verdict in court based on those patents. Goal is to keep the stock for at least 6 months to 1 year.
My current plans on investing in stocks will be to look for stocks using technical scans and then research them. If I like what I see, I will go long them. This will be diversified by having some financial dividend paying stocks including preferred shares plus some bonds.
Finally, I have a few long shot stocks, but will no longer be going long small cap stocks in the future since that strategy involves too high of a risk vs reward. Some of these stocks are waiting FDA approval, but I have been burned by the FDA before so it seems you only have a 30% chance of winning which is too low for me.
Regarding ticker symbol AUTH. It looks like you have nice little stock here. Its more or less tracking the indexes but has a little more strength behind it in my opinion. Heres how I would of played it off the chart if you beleived it was a good fundamental story. Scale in 1: Long at 10.00 Scale in 2:at 11.30 Scale in 3: is coming soon on the most likely test of 12.00 My objective would be 15.70
I hope your long at 10.00 or 11. 30 or better and nothing more than 12.00. This stock could easily come back to 11.00 or 10.00. I'm almost certain that its coming back to 12.00
I like your strategy. I am currently long just 100 shares at around current price, but sold a covered call with a strike price of $ 15/sh, which would be a decent profit if I get called away and reduces my cost of owning the stock.
As noted, I do plan to average in more if we fall back to support. However, my current goal in say going long based on a P & F signal is to buy on the signal and not wait for a pullback that may never come.
Quote from pnf.guy:
Regarding ticker symbol AUTH. It looks like you have nice little stock here. Its more or less tracking the indexes but has a little more strength behind it in my opinion. Heres how I would of played it off the chart if you beleived it was a good fundamental story. Scale in 1: Long at 10.00 Scale in 2:at 11.30 Scale in 3: is coming soon on the most likely test of 12.00 My objective would be 15.70
I hope your long at 10.00 or 11. 30 or better and nothing more than 12.00. This stock could easily come back to 11.00 or 10.00. I'm almost certain that its coming back to 12.00
pnf.u got a really big shopping list.
firstly,there will only be a few that have good signals.so let us know which ones you think have.then the real analysis can begin.
it is more about the chart showing good signals which are tradeable.rather than having a list with vertical /horizontal counts,fibs etc.you might be waiting for some time for any action to begin
so in order to make things easier:
1.define youre time horizon.ie 5 boxes as target.or as holygrail put in 5 week max.this time horizon will then define what box size you should be looking at
2.you can then see what signals look good to you
3.post the chart.then we can all give some advice.there is enough knowledge on this thread to really give you a good opinion
you actually learn the most from other people who examine youre set up and criticise it.dont be afraid.it is a great opportunity to learn
thst ids why i posted gsk last week.not one of mine,but tipped by a guru
here is a chart for oilb.the etf for brent oil.i dont have data for nymex future.as you can see from the chart there are no real tradeable signals.it is in an uptrend,but no signs of any pullback for entry.also no sign on this chart of any trend reversal.so no real signals as yet.that is what p/f is all about.supply and demand.price only,no time ,no volume
it is about..are the longs winning against the shorts...no more
forgot the chart
Hello dentist. Good to hear your comments. I always like to read what you post. I guess I should clarify my intentions. I track all those markets just for fun and personal satisfaction. I only trade two markets the ym or es which ever one offers the better opportunity. My style is position day trading. I'm looking to catch a nice trend or two during the day. My use for daily pnf is in the realm of position sizing. In bullish daily pnf mode. I want to have either a two times or three times larger position on my long positions compared to my bear positions, when the market is in daily bull mode. In a bear pnf daily mode I want my shorts to be two to three time larger than my longs in bear mode. In neautral mode each postion is sized equal. Basically what I'm asking you clever guys is if your bias on the daily mode is bullish, bearish, or neutral and why you came to that conclusion.
confusion here.the daily?
what box size.the daily hi/lo/close prices are coming into youre charting package.the charting package will want an input for box size.ie arithmetic or log.once you have entered box size it will ask for what size reversal.i 1,2 or 3.it will then display a chart.now some box sizes of the same instrument will show no tradeable signals.possibly others will.you will then define what chart /signals you want to take.also trend lines will alter according to box size and reversals
so it is not like a candle stick,where you get signals from the daily/weekly or monthly
incidentally,weekly hi/lo,close data should not be used on a p/f.just daily
as you change the box size on the daily.this alters youre time horizon.the reversal size more to do with the trend
going back to youre discussion.you will have a bias for each chart depending on the box size.all the data is daily in p/f.
you can see with holygrail ...he is defining good tradeable signals on a specific box size that suits his time horizon
Thanks for your comments. I'm well aware of the way a pnf chart is constructed not exactly using time as an input. I use the term daily more as an umbrella term to cover short term price action not long term. I like my pnf charts to be sensitive but not noisy. Here is good reference point for how I like my charts. For the DJIA a 25pt/3. For the S&P 500 2/3 and NDX 2/3
fine
a better way to look at the daily bias is
hourly close.this will give you one data point per hour.it will then take out the noise of hi and lo points.you should quite easily get 3 months of data points into the charting package.this will then give you the fine tuning before the market opens.then use youre intraday routine
intraday box size should be 10% of the daily box size.data could be hourly close.15 min close,1 min close etc etc.use hi lo data if needed.to get the full picture
for the hourly close.something like 10 by 3.must be able to backfill the data when the computer is switched off.obviously there will be times when the boxes dont move.but then watch the action when europe opens.,and on to the us open.go down to a 1 minute close the hour before.something like 5 by 3
all this for the dow.chnge box sizes for the es/ndx etc
then when market opens back to youre normal routine looking for tradeable signals that suit youre time horizon
Very interesting take on things, dentist and pnf. Thanks for the input.
Re: auth
Quote from oraclewizard77:
I am currently long AUTH based 1st on a P & F scan.
Re: Re: auth
Signal did not occur today, it was a previous signal where AUTH broke out of down trend.
Hold period and profit targets are something I am currently still testing out with real money. I guess hold period could also be used as a time stop loss or could also be combined by stop loss based on p and f. I think you should really go real money trading since paper trading is close to useless for stock trading unless you are using it to develop a strategy. You could just do small buys say 100 shares of a stock to get your feet wet. To do P & F trading, I think you need at least $ 15,000.
Quote from flyinglead:
I must be missing something because my charts (stockcharts) don't come close to matching yours and I don't see what signal you used to enter.
I spent the all yesterday looking for stocks that had a good signal (comesurate with my level of knowledge). I am going to paper trade strickly stocks for the next 6 months and see how I do. At this point I am only using PnF signals on the charts. Weeding out the bad ones with other research will have to come later as I learn. I've only gone thru The NYSE so far and skipped all the financials and funds and probably missed a few more.
I used a 3 box reversal with traditional scaling and Hi-Low price.
BNI Buy 103.47 Stop 96
EL Buy 48.08 Stop 43
FMC Buy 67.22 Stop 60
HON Buy 59.59 Stop 54
IT Buy 23.88 Stop 18
MDS Sell 14.88 Stop 17.5
PAG Buy 20.08 Stop 18.5
PH Buy 83.59 Stop 78
PHH Buy 19.38 Stop 17
RIO Buy 39.58 Stop36
TWC Buy 29.67 Stop 24
WHR Sell 72.43 Stop 77
I still have to figure out What contract size would be best, How long to hold one that doesn't move, when to take a profit etc.
feel free to critique me if you like.
Re: Re: Re: auth
Quote from oraclewizard77:
Signal did not occur today, it was a previous signal where AUTH broke out of down trend.
Hold period and profit targets are something I am currently still testing out with real money. I guess hold period could also be used as a time stop loss or could also be combined by stop loss based on p and f. I think you should really go real money trading since paper trading is close to useless for stock trading unless you are using it to develop a strategy. You could just do small buys say 100 shares of a stock to get your feet wet. To do P & F trading, I think you need at least $ 15,000.
Re: Re: Re: auth
Quote from oraclewizard77:
Hold period and profit targets are something I am currently still testing out with real money. I guess hold period could also be used as a time stop loss or could also be combined by stop loss based on p and f. I think you should really go real money trading since paper trading is close to useless for stock trading unless you are using it to develop a strategy. You could just do small buys say 100 shares of a stock to get your feet wet. To do P & F trading, I think you need at least $ 15,000.
Re: Re: Re: Re: auth
Quote from yayt:
I was thinking of getting into BNI at 100 but it didn't seem to have a lot of strength when I was watching it - it kept hitting a 100 and then heading back down.
BNI: Regarding your trade idea. I would not trade it at these values. I would love to here the reasoning and see the charts if some one has a different perspective than me. I have an open mind and enjoy discussing point and figure charting.
EL: Regarding your trade idea. I would not trade it at these values. I would love to here the reasoning and see the charts if some one has a different perspective than me. I have an open mind and enjoy discussing point and figure charting.
FMC: Regarding your trade idea. I would not trade it at these values. I would love to here the reasoning and see the charts if some one has a different perspective than me. I have an open mind and enjoy discussing point and figure charting.
HON: Regarding your trade idea. I would not trade it at these values. I would love to here the reasoning and see the charts if some one has a different perspective than me. I have an open mind and enjoy discussing point and figure charting.
IT: Regarding your trade idea. I would not trade it at these values. I would love to here the reasoning and see the charts if some one has a different perspective than me. I have an open mind and enjoy discussing point and figure charting.
PAG: Regarding your trade idea. I would not trade it at these values. I would love to here the reasoning and see the charts if some one has a different perspective than me. I have an open mind and enjoy discussing point and figure charting.
PH: Regarding your trade idea. I would not trade it at these values. I would love to here the reasoning and see the charts if some one has a different perspective than me. I have an open mind and enjoy discussing point and figure charting.
PHH: Regarding your trade idea. I would not trade it at these values. I would love to here the reasoning and see the charts if some one has a different perspective than me. I have an open mind and enjoy discussing point and figure charting.
TWC: Regarding your trade idea. I would not trade it at these values. I would love to here the reasoning and see the charts if some one has a different perspective than me. I have an open mind and enjoy discussing point and figure charting.
RIO- My methodology would allow me to day trade this ticker symbol around the price of 38.00 from the long side. I would day trade it all the way up to the price objective of 42.00. However, I personally don't trade anything other than the ES or YM.
Quote from pnf.guy:
RIO- My methodology would allow me to day trade this ticker symbol around the price of 38.00 from the long side. I would day trade it all the way up to the price objective of 42.00. However, I personally don't trade anything other than the ES or YM.
thanks for your input pnf.guy. I'll have to see how the different chart size indicators work out. I realize it won't be as simple as picking one chart size and buying everything that has a good signal.
What really surprises me browsing thru all the charts, is how many companies have gone from $20, 30 or even 40 or more down to almost nothing in the last couple years.
Quote from flyinglead:
thanks for your input pnf.guy. I'll have to see how the different chart size indicators work out. I realize it won't be as simple as picking one chart size and buying everything that has a good signal.
What really surprises me browsing thru all the charts, is how many companies have gone from $20, 30 or even 40 or more down to almost nothing in the last couple years.
to be honset, I wasn't looking, but I should have been. I'm only part way thru the nasdaq, so I'll strt looking.
chart
(a day isn't complete until you learn at least one new thing) --adding attachments
Quote from hayman:
Holy Grail,
My 1st post on this thread......I have been following it for a while, and have purchased 2 books on the subject (Dorsey - the book is good, but he tries to promote his services too much, and (Du Plessis - this is a great book !).
In any event, I have a quick question for you. When you trade ES using P&F, I see that you use 0.5, 0.75, and 1.0 box size. For the purposes of day-trading or scalping ES, are you using a 3-box reversal for each of the 3 box sizes ??
Hence, for this instrument, are you just trading based on these 3 screens (0.5 x 3, 0.75 x 3, and 1.0 x 3) OR are you using different variants of the reversal size as well ?
Also, if you trade YM intraday, what P&F parameters would you recommend for that ?
Many thanks in advance, and thanks for putting so much detail into this thread.
Best Regards
Quote from flyinglead:
chart
(a day isn't complete until you learn at least one new thing) --adding attachments
Quote from yayt:
I'm really curious to see how this works out for other declining stocks,
pnf ,what do u think of aig?
Quote from pnf.guy:
RIO- My methodology would allow me to day trade this ticker symbol around the price of 38.00 from the long side. I would day trade it all the way up to the price objective of 42.00. However, I personally don't trade anything other than the ES or YM.
Regarding AIG, I would maintain in my own vocabulary a daily short bias from the 49.00 price level. This term daily caused confusion on this thread so it could also be called a short-term short bias.
My plan of action would be
1. I would initiate a short bias when price hit the 49.00 price level a while back.
2.I would day trade this stock on the short side.
3. I would terminate my short bias when price touches 37.00.
4. Or I would terminate my short bias if 52.00 is touched before 37.00
pnf.guy
since most of my charts show a short bias starting at $44, would you still use the same charts and bias if you were longer term trading?
(I know you wouldn't use the same chart, but would you come up with the same signals)
thanks
thnks pnf
Hey FlyingLead, if it helps, I would have gotten short as soon as it went under 44.
Anyway, I'm going to start work on backtesting PnF signals on Wednesday, I should hopefully have something done by Wednesday night.
I'm planning on testing just the simple signals: double, triple, quadruple top breakout/breakdown, and de/ascending triple/quadruple top breakout/breakdowns.
I can already think of possible improvements to the raw signals we have above, such as investing more on a quadruple top (assuming it's a stronger move against stronger resistance) as opposed to a double top.
what chart size are you using? I've been mostly using 3 box Reversal with High-Low. but checking that against the 2 box reversal and the 3 box close sometimes gives quite different indications. throw in a couple different box sizes, and my mind goes rummy.
(I'm back to rereading this whole thread and continuing in Jeremy's book)
Quote from HolyGrail:
Here is a chart for Costco. As you can see this chart is potentially setting up for a bearish reversal signal. We have had 7 straight columns of lower highs and lower lows. Should this reverse to 67.00 it will probably move up substantially more.
What is more likely to happen is we will end up getting some other signal before this signal is reversed, but you still should be aware that a bearish signal reversed could be coming and look for an opportunity to go long on this stock on any bullish signal.
If you are a pattern trader it definitely looks like a pennant, but pennants are not automatically considered a buy signal in a pnf chart.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Sorry for the late response , I just got back to town. When I trade ES and NQ I do use a 3 box reversal with the .5, .75, and 1.0 charts.
On ym I use 4, 6, and 8 point charts.
__________________
"Those who can't do teach, those who can't teach, teach Gym."
Today is just a slow moving trend day so you will definitely get less signals on a day like this. I don't trade all signals, but on a typical day in es you will have 10-15 pnf signals.
edit: Also, I gave you wrong information. I haven't traded ym in awhile so I went by memory. I loaded up ym charts to look at what I have been using and it has been 3,4 and 5 point boxes with 3 reversals.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Today is just a slow moving trend day so you will definitely get less signals on a day like this. I don't trade all signals, but on a typical day in es you will have 10-15 pnf signals.
__________________
"Those who can't do teach, those who can't teach, teach Gym."
Quote from hayman:
[To clarify: I am using QuoteTracker with IB tick data. But with QT, you have to specify a chart period, for a given chart, as well as box size and reversal. So, I have been using 50 bars. It will use the Hi/Low from each 50 ticks then, in making reversal determination. Is this a mistake ? Should I go with a lower chart (bar) period ???]
I want to scalp ES during the day.
Thanks again !
Quote from HolyGrail:
The chart period has nothing to do with pnf. It has only to do with the lookback period. When I used QT I used the full 2 days as a look back period.
__________________
"Those who can't do teach, those who can't teach, teach Gym."
Quote from yayt:
The problem is, the signal came a couple days before its earnings came out, and while I knew this because I looked into the company and did some research before I went in, I thought it'd be helpful to warn people when holding onto longer term P&F based positions that news events (that you can know about in advance) may cause a P&F chart to fail you (like if earnings were TERRIBLE, compared to market expectations).
With regards to position trading, does it seem feasibly to take the private equity approach, and hope for lots of breakevens/slight losses and 1 or 2 homeruns?
Ideally, I would like to use P&F to do position trading which are less stressful and time consuming than intraday trades.
Quote from dentist007:
going back to youre discussion.you will have a bias for each chart depending on the box size.all the data is daily in p/f.
you can see with holygrail ...he is defining good tradeable signals on a specific box size that suits his time horizon
Hello HG, I have two Q's:
1. the bullish percent chart is a 2x3 chart, right?
2. regarding your RS chart, it actually is a particular stock against the whole 800 stock database? what settings are used? 2%x3 ?
Quote from HolyGrail:
Ok, I am going to add a new facet to our discussion. This is basically for swing traders only.
It's called the bullish % index.
I've created an index of about 800 of the highest volume stocks. If you have nasdaq stocks or nyse stocks that are readily available you can do it on each index.
Basically what the index tells you is whether you should be looking for longs in your trades, or mainly shorts.
Now I have mentioned that I use bulls-eye broker for this. I love the program. I am not affiliated in any way with them. I don't make a commission on their sailes etc. It is just the only program that is pnf that does it that I am aware of. It also as previously mentioned, automatically changes box sizes based on price of the instrument you are trading. A very nice feature.
I do know other people on this board do something similar, so maybe we can get some insight from others on where they get their information.
Personally, I believe it is extremely important to be with the market. A rising tide does lift all boats.
Normally any time the index gets below 30% it is considered somewhat bullish that we are at or near a bottom.
When we are at 70% we are at or near a top. Personally I think anything over 60% is time to become cautious on your longs.
What this program does is scan the stock and looks for the last pnf signal. If it is bullish then it gets added to the bullish percent index.
It is recommended that you never add to your stocks while there is an 0 column as the current column. At least wait for a reversal before going long.
If you see any kind of breakout on this bullish chart it is even more bullish. If there is a breakout under the last column of 0's then it is extremely bearish to go long.
The key is not to add to your longs when we have an 0 column and not to add to your shorts when we have an x column.
Here is a current through today bullish% chart.
As you can see, we are still in bullish mode so we should be looking for longs in our swing trades. We have crossed over the 30% line as of today which is extremely bullish.
I know the world is predicting doom and gloom, but the chart says NOT RIGHT NOW. So trade based on it.
Quote from HooLee:
Hello HG, I have two Q's:
1. the bullish percent chart is a 2x3 chart, right?
2. regarding your RS chart, it actually is a particular stock against the whole 800 stock database? what settings are used? 2%x3 ?
Thank you HG. The s&p 500 seems to be the most used performance benchmark.
Look at this page for BP charts, it's pretty convenient: http://stockcharts.com/charts/candl...PENER,$BPFINA|E
a word of caution here.
the bullish per cent charts are calculated using the chartcraft method. 2% is a longer term box size.so the chart can print a double-top by virtue of a high reading on one day.this does not mean for sure there is a breakout,especially in these volatile markets.the best way round is to go to a 1% box size chart.ie the number of stocks in the index that have a bullish pattern on that box size.time the entry on that.vice versa on a downtrend
I thought I would post this chart. I bought this yesterday and we have a very nice chart in a bullish catapult, and a double top buy on relative strength.
Here is another catapult that appeared today. I don't like it as much as Emerson, but nevertheless it could be a good one.
On a side note, I have decided to swing trade only(maybe a couple of day trades). I am so far behind in my work at the office it is embarrassing. Shame on me.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I thought I would post this chart. I bought this yesterday and we have a very nice chart in a bullish catapult, and a double top buy on relative strength.
Right now both stocks are still below the price that triggered the buy, so they are still buys right now. But to answer your general question I wouldn't buy it more than 1 box over the trigger, and if I did that I would only buy half and look for a slight pullback for the other half.
OK. Since I am not using any other indicators at this time, I was wondering if time movement has any bearing on chance of a good trade.
ie. EMR had an 8 box movement in May before the breakout, would you still take the trade if the box before the breakout had a 2 or 3 in it.
Yes, as long as we are currently in a move.
Firstly, H.G. thanks for posting some of your swing trade ideas. It really helps the learning process for all of us P&F chartists.
Regarding ticker symbol EMR. My methodology doesn't agree with your trade idea. I'm really excited about this because this may become a genuine learning experience for me if my methodology turns out to be wrong.
1. I believe EMR is at resistance and I would day trade it with a short bias
2. I don't believe the broad market has tipped its hand yet. I don't see more than 50/50 probability at these levels that it will experience a major upside breakout. I see more of a consolidation. I would not be buying individual stocks at resistance just yet.
3. My methodology would allow me to take a long bias when the retracement to 54.00 recently took place
4. I would terminate my long bias at about 57.00
5. I think the 54.00 to 57.00 was the meat of this move and I would move on to another stock at these levels.
I hope you disagree with all of my take on this stock. That is the real way to learn. Constructive disagreement for the sake of true knowledge.
EMR chart plotted with only the pivot point rather than the H-L range.
emr.54 is a strong supp area.1 box close.50 cents box size
There is no question we are close or at resistance. I took this trade for four reasons.
1. Most catapults are very reliable. (failed catapults are typically strong reversals)
2. If it breaks through this resistance it will be at a new high.
3. even on the next chart higher (a 2.0 chart) we have a buy signal.
4. Relative strength made a double top buy signal.
I really don't disagree with anything you said other than trading this stock with a short bias. There is nothing in my charts that indicate this stock should be shorted.
If the catapult fails, your short bias will be correct and this stock will drop like a rock, but I first have to see an indication of failure.
edit: actually a fifth reason would be bullish percent chart is still moving up and still in an x column. No shorting for me while that indicator is in an x column.
Its true this isn't such a great short. There are better stocks out there to short. My immediate thoughts upon viewing the chart is that I would rather be short than long. There is no real good reason to take a short position home with you overnight on this stock. My method would be to only short this stock with a intra-day holding period. Please keep posting your charts I enjoy them.
Well from an immediate return standpoint it looks like Tiffany TIF was the better trade. So far it is up 2.20 today.
A good free 30m video on P&F can be found at this link.
http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/...zieg-interview/
this one had lots of good signals, including your favorite. And another one forming.
If I was a betting man, I'd bet we get the reversal instead of the breakout.
ugh.....
i cannot see one.there is a failed b/o.but you would have to be quick to get it
i am not quick enough for this one
russian roulette is a safer option
updata charts might be screwed.they are showing price of 62 ish.ignore the last chart.
here is the shart with the right data.targetes have been met from the upside vertical counts.the latest thrust columns retrace to the 68 level.these should go to ahigher level.iehigher lows.o the breakout could be a non starter
tif: a brick wall at $48
Quote from HolyGrail:
Well from an immediate return standpoint it looks like Tiffany TIF was the better trade. So far it is up 2.20 today.
Well that one was the one I unfortunately didn't trade. If I did I would take profits by the end of the day.
Why close it, if I may ask?
I think dentist had it slightly wrong(maybe a mistype) The brick wall is at 49.00 and it may take awhile to get above it. Also when a stock gives me better than a 5% return in one day I am out of there and looking for a pullback to enter again.
My take on Tif on a pivot point plot
1. I think 52.00 level is in play for a target
2. I would love to get long at either 45.00 or 44.00
3. If I was long this stock for this move today I would take profits and wait to re-enter an 45.00
FDG looks great
1. I would look to take a long bias on the retracement to 65.00 and day trade around there
2. This stock really looks good it may be a good long term buy on the retracement to 55.00
I like it as well, and I am not afraid to buy a stock after a run-up with a minimal reversal, and a new breakout. I would buy half at 73 and the other half at 70-71 if given the opportunity.
i must be wrong on tif.my data is eod.based on wednesday close.so i think the res area i quoted must stand as the next support area when the profit taking begins
the res area i quoted was updata charting generated
MOS has run up hard recently, I still like this 130 breakout. The daily trend is up, relative tight stop can be placed and it can move to 140/50 in a hurry. Anyone disagree? (I own Jun140 Calls.)
Quote from HolyGrail:
I think dentist had it slightly wrong(maybe a mistype) The brick wall is at 49.00 and it may take awhile to get above it. Also when a stock gives me better than a 5% return in one day I am out of there and looking for a pullback to enter again.
__________________
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You should be home free if it makes it to 134. It's relative strength is not good right now so if we have a pull back this might get hurt more than the rest of the market.
It's in X and ready to reakout. Do you have a different RS chart than this one?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...0!!2!20]&pref=G
Yes I do. Hmm, we need to figure out the difference.
It looks like the problem is on my end. I show rs to be 9046 you show 9056, but my chart does not reflect 9046
I've noticed the differents before, and that's why I asked up about how your RS charts are constructed. We don't have control over the software we are using, this makes it hard to compare our views.
Anyway, I agree that MOS is not as strong pattern as we like it to be in this breakout. I'll watch it closely. I do like the potential running to new high and the R/R ratio here.
It's driving me nuts. There should not be that big of a difference in the pattern, especially considering the values are within .1.
First newbe post.
Per your pm suggestion, I've purchased bull's eye. I get my data from TC2000, which I have a great deal of confidence with.
If you open the chart toolbox and change the Ratio Multiplier to 1000 (you probably have it on 10) you will get the same percentage changes as the stockcharts RS chart. The pattern however will not be the same as stockcharts, but yours is correct.
Prior to purchasing bull's eye, I was using stockcharts for the P&F and RS charts. I have now found many many times that the stockcharts charts (both the P&F and RS) are different than mine created with TC2000 data. I really don't put any trust in the FREE stuff at stockcharts.
relative strength calculation depends on the start date of the data.there is an option in updata to start it from the first date of the visible chart or the first date in the data set.i think that is where the difference might be
Many things can cause the difference, such as:
1. data reliability - just as Robert pointed out;
2. data point(s) used - some use H and L, some use C only;
3. reversal method - looking for continuation of current column first, or look at reversal first;
4. starting point - this only affects the first few columns in the chart.
Solutions? some thoughts here:
1. multiple data sources - I have used Qcharts, eSignal and some other package, they all have "bad tick" from time to time;
2. signal confirmation - other charting style, other box size, timeframe etc.
3. do your own chart - old timers did it, some still doing it today, by hand;
4. risk control - including position sizing.
a few bad ticks would not spoil the rs chart too much.it is the look back period that gives the most discrepancy..i think.???
Regarding Ticker symbol Mos
1. I would have a long bias from 119.00
2. I would terminate my long bias at 130.00
3. If I was in at 140 calls I would not be to happy with the current action however nothing indicates its a good shorting candidate either.
There is no reason that candles can't be used in conjunction with P&F. I find this candlevolume chart to be helpful. This chart of MoS indicates price came down with abnormally large volume. This current bounce off of 115 has been on relatiively light volume. This is no reason to be short but it does indicate there is supply at these levels
Quote from flyinglead:
If I was a betting man, I'd bet we get the reversal instead of the breakout.
What it really did
( I may be right in the short run considering what the market is doing today.)
If there is a decent trend more times than not the breakout will be in the direction of the trend.
abx...barrick gold
anybody got any veiws.?
Quote from dentist007:
abx...barrick gold
anybody got any veiws.?
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I concur. Excellent analysis JJ.
Whenever I am in doubt about a stock I always move up to the next incremental box size and see if it looks bullish.
Here is abx on a 2.0 chart. Not a pretty sight.
Now that is not to say this can't move up. It just tells me of all the gold stocks this is just not one I would want to be long right now.
agreed.i got a phone call today from a trader who works for a hedge asking did i want to go long on this stock.they said there target was $46
root canal is a safer bet
Quote from HolyGrail:
Whenever I am in doubt about a stock I always move up to the next incremental box size and see if it looks bullish.
Here is abx on a 2.0 chart. Not a pretty sight.
Now that is not to say this can't move up. It just tells me of all the gold stocks this is just not one I would want to be long right now.
__________________
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I see what your friend is looking at. I don't think its such a bad trade to be long ABX from the recent lows with a target of 46.00
My method would let me get long this stock on the retrace to 35.00 it just missed that level so i would have had no trade.
When you look at the ticker symbol GLD The picture looks much more bullish. What this tells me is that there may be accumulation going on here in gold stocks at these levels. There are better stocks to own than ABX but none the less it may hit his objective if the sector as whole moves topside
Ticker symbol ABX
Quote from pnf.guy:
I see what your friend is looking at. I don't think its such a bad trade to be long ABX from the recent lows with a target of 46.00
My method would let me get long this stock on the retrace to 35.00 it just missed that level so i would have had no trade.
When you look at the ticker symbol GLD The picture looks much more bullish. What this tells me is that there may be accumulation going on here in gold stocks at these levels. There are better stocks to own than ABX but none the less it may hit his objective if the sector as whole moves topside
__________________
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Quote from HolyGrail:
OK, now for another powerful signal that if you are wrong YOU CAN REVENGE TRADE AMD STILL MAKE MONEY.
It's the triangle, and occasionally you will get some false breakouts. but this is only occasionally and when that occasion occurs you are almost a guaranteed winner on the reversal.
__________________
Brad
Quote from HolyGrail:
Time is of no consequence on a pnf chart. A daily chart looks exactly the same as a monthly chart. The only difference is box sizes that you choose to use. If you use the standard box sizes a monthly chart will look the same as a daily chart.
You should not use the standard box size for intraday trading.
For example on ES the standard is a 20 point box. This is fine for daily or weekly trading but not for intraday.
On intraday, I actually use three chart box sizes. .5, .75, and 1.0
__________________
Brad
Quote from tampatrader82:
I have a question. When you mean you can revenge trade, do you mean if there is a false buy signal and you buy, when it dips back down go short?
thanks.
Quote from tampatrader82:
Is this only good for ES, or do you think it can be used on equities?
Quote from tampatrader82:
Is this only good for ES, or do you think it can be used on equities?
Does anyone Swing trade on a weekly basis using pnf?
ie. Buy a portfolio of stocks Monday and liquidate everything (that didn't already get stopped) out Friday?
Looking at 3 paper trading portfolios I "bought" the first part of the week, it seems to make sense to take my profits and run and start fresh next Monday.
Hey all,
I've made a significant amount of progress, I think, in programatically constructing P&F charts using end of day historical data.
I have been comparing these charts to that of stockcharts and have noticed the sole difference being that of rounding error.
What are the conventions with regard to rounding?
i.e. if in a downtrend, round up? if in an uptrend, round down? if in a reversal, round away from the reversal direction?
also, if anyone can help with the formula to calculate price objective, that'd be a great help as well.
Quote from yayt:
also, if anyone can help with the formula to calculate price objective, that'd be a great help as well.
Quote from flyinglead:
Does anyone Swing trade on a weekly basis using pnf?
ie. Buy a portfolio of stocks Monday and liquidate everything (that didn't already get stopped) out Friday?
Looking at 3 paper trading portfolios I "bought" the first part of the week, it seems to make sense to take my profits and run and start fresh next Monday.
Any one have any thoughts on the Dow Jones Composite
Any one have any thoughts on the Dow Jones Industrials. Please share them if you do. I see the market at some very critical levels right now
Any one have any thoughts on the Dow Jones transports
the big money is buying rails and shipping and selling trucking because of fuel costs
newmont.this gave a holygrail entry signal.consecutive signals.a better looking chart than barrick gold.coming up to trendline resistance now.so a bit late.but i have told the hedge that is what i am looking for not the shapeless barrick chart
Now that I have a method to my madness thanks to HolyGrail, I am trying to find the best Broker/ charting interface to work with. I like the simple charts like Stockcharts or even the ones like Holy Grail post. I have no clue what the brokers account page would look like, but I am comfortable with a format like yahoo finance's personal portfolios.
Hopefully I can find one that interfaces, so I can have the list of stocks Im trading at the top and a PnF chart of each stock in the portolio below on the same page. I figure to have about 10 at one time.
Any recommendations for a good combination. ie Bullseye Broker and IB etc.
I set up an account with Think or Swim so I could paper trade.
If someone could post or PM me a picture of what their program looks like, I'd appreciate it.
I may sound like a simpleton on this, but I am pretty much a computer moron.
thanks
Quote from pnf.guy:
Any one have any thoughts on the Dow Jones Composite
CWU, excellent post. We are all lucky to have you aboard this thread. You have clearly demonstrated your command of P&F principles to be first class all the way. Just from your one post a novice can learn a great amount of knowledge in the practical application of P&F. I hope that you will continue to post here on this thread.
Welcome to the thread CWU. Impressive knowledgeable post. Don't be a stranger.
I am unable to see the copy/pasted charts from the beginning of HolyGrail's posts. Is it because the post is too old?
Anyways, can someone explain the details of the SUPER GREAT failed double top/bottom?
Thanks
A synopsis of trading pnf is here.
http://www.clalloys.com/pnf%20charting.pdf
Quote from protodigm:
I am unable to see the copy/pasted charts from the beginning of HolyGrail's posts. Is it because the post is too old?
Anyways, can someone explain the details of the SUPER GREAT failed double top/bottom?
Thanks
Great explanation staffpro.
AKAM provides us with many examples including one currently.
Edit: I do want to mention that it is not only a shakeout formation, it is a shake-in formation. It is basically a buy or sell signal that makes you think the trend is either going to continue, or reverse, only to do just the opposite. It is a very strong signal, as are all FAILED pnf signals.
A really nice podcast done by the P&F authority Tom Dorsey can be found at this link. I think all people will like this one and its free.
http://media.dorseywright.com/rss/D...ghtPodcast7.mp3
Since we were talking about failed signals I wanted to show one that I traded today on NQ. It was a failed catapult and it was good for 5 points. (actually good for more, but I wussed out after 5. This was on the NQ .5 chart.
How do you know exactly when the pnf signal starts to fail?
Do you simply enter into both short/long positions after every pnf signal and cancel the failing/not entered one?
For AKAM, can you give example of where you would place your entry points, both long/short for each of the signals?
The catapult example you showed, in hindsight it looks obvious it failed. But when did you exactly notice that it was failing? After the last O column? by then it would be too late to enter.
Thanks for the great guidance HolyGrail.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Great explanation staffpro.
AKAM provides us with many examples including one currently.
Edit: I do want to mention that it is not only a shakeout formation, it is a shake-in formation. It is basically a buy or sell signal that makes you think the trend is either going to continue, or reverse, only to do just the opposite. It is a very strong signal, as are all FAILED pnf signals.
Quote from protodigm:
The catapult example you showed, in hindsight it looks obvious it failed. But when did you exactly notice that it was failing? After the last O column? by then it would be too late to enter.
Thanks for the great guidance HolyGrail.
in the above the "last let" was supposed to be the last leg
Quote from protodigm:
For AKAM, can you give example of where you would place your entry points, both long/short for each of the signals?
Thanks for the great guidance HolyGrail.
One other comment. I showed where my stops would be on akam. Normally what I really do is consider what is happening. If a false sell signal occurs during an uptrend I will keep moving my stop up to 1 box below the last 0 column. This is because I am trading with the trend. I will try to ride this as long as possible depending on s/r.
If a false sell signal was during a downtrend, I would exit after the first column reversal of the chart that gave me the signal because now we are trading countertrend.
Here is one for you swing traders. We have a stock about to make a move. Whichever way it goes it will most likely be a pretty strong move.
Stock is USB. The stock is sitting at 33.30. At 36 it becomes a bullish catapult. At 31 it becomes a failed bullish catapult.
If I had to guess I would say the stock is going to move up even though at present we are in a O column on relative strength.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Here is one for you swing traders. We have a stock about to make a move. Whichever way it goes it will most likely be a pretty strong move.
Stock is USB. The stock is sitting at 33.30. At 36 it becomes a bullish catapult. At 31 it becomes a failed bullish catapult.
If I had to guess I would say the stock is going to move up even though at present we are in a O column on relative strength.
A really good thread on P&F was just opened yesterday over at Traders Laboratory. If you are a P&F enthusiast and not just dabbling this thread is a must. It has great potential. I'm looking forward to it. If you are not familiar with Traders Laboratory its hands down the best trading forum out there. Its not so amatureish like Elite Trader. Any way this thread was started by two graduates of the wyckoff stock market institute. If you are not familiar with that school its probably the best one that exists for technical analysis. Heres the link
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/fo...rting-3889.html
Looking back to some stocks that were mentioned on this thread last week. The ticker symbol TIF looks like it will be in play this week. I would like to get long this in the 46.00- 45.50 zone
There was also some comments on ABX last week. It looks like getting long was a good idea. It recently bounced rather nicely.
Quote from Humpy:
A double top ??? and so ^
Is it current or past ?
If the latter what did it do ??
My MOS trade really went south, thanks everyone who offered their opinions.
Try again, how about this one: XOM
It responds to today's crude inventories report with a breakout, it will be stronger if takes out 96.
and the 2x3 and RS chart
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/....0!!2!20]&pnf=y
Quote from pnf.guy:
A really good thread on P&F was just opened yesterday over at Traders Laboratory. If you are a P&F enthusiast and not just dabbling this thread is a must. It has great potential. I'm looking forward to it. If you are not familiar with Traders Laboratory its hands down the best trading forum out there. Its not so amatureish like Elite Trader. Any way this thread was started by two graduates of the wyckoff stock market institute. If you are not familiar with that school its probably the best one that exists for technical analysis. Heres the link
http://www.traderslaboratory.com/fo...rting-3889.html
__________________
"Those who can't do teach, those who can't teach, teach Gym."
agreed.with above.
the consecutive signals/holygrail
that rule is great..it certainly keeps you out of the toxic waste !!!!
agreed.with above.
the consecutive signals/holygrail
that rule is great..it certainly keeps you out of the toxic waste !!!!
agreed.with above.
the consecutive signals/holygrail
that rule is great..it certainly keeps you out of the toxic waste !!!!
Quote from HooLee:
My MOS trade really went south, thanks everyone who offered their opinions.
Try again, how about this one: XOM
It responds to today's crude inventories report with a breakout, it will be stronger if takes out 96.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Nothing wrong with the stock. Might be a little something wrong with the r/r at this level. Theoretically you would have to place your stop at 87.00.
Edit: well maybe not. The horizontal projection is at 120, so actually it looks pretty damn good.
Because the weather has been too bad to work the last 2 days, I spent a lot of time going over charts. Altho I have found lots of good buy and sell signals, I realize there is no way I can go thru all the charts I need, to catch all the good signals so I can decide the best stocks to buy in a timely fashion.
Even using the Stockcharts scans and looking at the ones that have already given a signal takes an exorbitant amount of time. (and no, I'm not looking for something to just fall in my lap with no work), but I spent all day today and barely scratched the surface doing it manually.
After drawing a chart with some of my picks and comparing them to different markets, indices, I started to recognize something similiar to the charts "TheRumpledOne" has posted on jjrvat's thread, I got to wondering if it was possible or if someone has developed scans and filters that would take some of the time out of searching thru charts.
Disregard the actual stocks, markets compared to and results, as some have been just put in erroneoulsy and are probably comparing to the wrong markets
STOCK------$SPX -----$INDU-------$NYA ---------SECTOR---------BP%
CGN-----------^ ----------^-------------^ -------------^ --------- x%
DVN------------Y-----------Y--------------^-------------Y ---------- x%
FCS------------^----------^--------------^-------------^----------x%
OMX-----------^----------^--------------^--------------^-----------x%
TKS------------^----------^--------------^--------------^-----------x%
CMCSK--------^----------^--------------^--------------^-----------x%
FORR----------^----------^--------------^--------------^-----------x%
MCCC---------^-----------^-------------^--------------^------------x%
MRTN----------^-----------^-------------^--------------^------------x%
PACR----------^-----------^-------------^--------------^------------x%
VRGY----------^-----------^-------------^---------------^-----------x%
Its pretty crude but I was wondering what it would take to set up a scan/ filters to do this searching a little quicker than checking each one manually. or if Bullseye Broker, InvestorRT or Dorsey Wright already have this capability?
the bottom part of this is what I was thinking of, with different market comparisons instead of MA's.
I have no idea what you are trying to display, but yes, bulls-eye broker can scan for any pnf signal as well as relative strength signal, or both.
For example you can look for any bullish or bearish pnf signal that also has an x or 0 column in relative strength etc.
edit: bulls eye broker also allows you to make two relative strength comparisons so for example you can use the s&p 500 and the sector of ths stock.
Quote from HolyGrail:
For example you can look for any bullish or bearish pnf signal that also has an x or 0 column in relative strength etc.
edit: bulls eye broker also allows you to make two relative strength comparisons so for example you can use the s&p 500 and the sector of ths stock.
I don't think you can go wrong with bulls eye broker. It's inexpensive and will pay for itself quickly.
If you are swing trading it's great because it can provide you with the bullish % index every day which IMO is critical for swing trading.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I don't think you can go wrong with bulls eye broker. It's inexpensive and will pay for itself quickly.
If you are swing trading it's great because it can provide you with the bullish % index every day which IMO is critical for swing trading.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I don't think you can go wrong with bulls eye broker. It's inexpensive and will pay for itself quickly.
If you are swing trading it's great because it can provide you with the bullish % index every day which IMO is critical for swing trading.
__________________
"Those who can't do teach, those who can't teach, teach Gym."
Is anyone that's following this post , swing trading a portfolio of stocks (large or small) that they don't attend day and night.
Do you select a proportional mount of shorts to go with the longs to protect against market fluctuations?
If one isn't there to counteract the market trend all day, it seems it would be better to pick a portfolio that has a proportional amount of each
After watching how a couple portfolios performed the last two weeks, Last week I was a King, this week I'm a Chump.
Right now, my mediocre long positions are dragging down the great positions.
I haven't touched anything in my portfolios yet, because I want to see how they do in different trends, and its obvious that even p&f signals don't make you immune to the market, but a few good home runs like CSIQ, PERY and ZEUS will keep a person afloat.
Thanks
This is what I do.
When bullish % is in an x column I will only go long on stocks. If it has a 0 column I will only look for shorts.
If an 0 column appears in bullish percent I will then look at the relative strength of any longs I own. As soon RS turns negative I am out of the stock.
If the bullish % is positive but over 60% I will put a trailing stop on all long stocks. If bullish % dips below 30 percent I will place a trailing stop on all my shorts.
a slight change of direction.the forum is about p/f price action.all we seem to be doing is talking about stock tips.
anyway here is an intraday chart for eurodollar,you can definitely see the trend is up.eurodollar deposit rates are showing tha interest rates in euroland are going up a tad.hence the chart is looking very bullsih.any comments.??
hourly data.5 points box size.data plot is hilo range.3 box reversal
here is the longer term chart.daily data.3 reversal.box size 100 pips
here is a hot topic at the moment..oil.the etf for brent crude.box size 0.5 by 3 reversal.with some price targets from vertical counts
here is the chart.looks like the end of the gas guzzlers
can anyone tell me why the big difference between MO on Bulls-eye Broker and Stockcharts? Stock split?? Using MLdownloader for data, and checked yahoo which shows the same big drop
stockcharts
Bullseye Broker
Dentist: You said "eurodollar deposit rates are showing that interest rates in euroland are going up a tad.hence the chart is looking very bullsih.any comments".??
I'm kind of confused by that statement could you clarify if you have the time. Are you talking about the Eurodollar instrument that trades on the cme. When you say interest rates in the E.U. are you refering to the bund,bobl, or schatz. The instrument that is designed to track the movements in policy by the E.C.B. Or finally are just commenting on the Eur/Usd currency cross.
My take on Eur/Usd if that is what your are talking about is that its right at a pivotal point in both the short term and long term.
I see short term resistance at 1.5825 If that is breached it may continue the uptrend and breakout of the 1.6000 level. I personally would like to get long on a long term basis at 1.4900 so I'm hoping for a down leg here before it breaks the 1.6000 level.
My eur/usd chart that shows resis
Its my opinion its necessary to watch usd/chf to trade the euro in the longer term
my chart that shows usd strength on the usd/chf cross
Are you more careful if a chart has buy signal after buy signal after buy signal like 4 in a row or similar?
hope everyone is enjoying their long weekends.
Patrick
I personally think one should not trade from a framework of fear. Such as there have been three previous up legs prior to this up leg and therefore I will decide not to participate in this leg. One should just follow the signals and use intelligent stops, end of story. I think I see where you could be going with your question. It may be related to Elliot Wave or some thing like that. My opinion on Elliot wave is that its not an inherent characteristic of the markets. Most of the time it doesn't work and some times it does work. Its similar to Fibonacci projections. The only reason it works is because someone really big operating in that security has decided to use that projection as a profit target. Thats why it works sometimes and not others. Its not an inherent characteristic of the market. However, many vendors will try to proclaim that it is.
ok now another question about the horizontal/vertical projections i read the articles from the traders laboratory for determining objectives using the horizontal/vertical projection method and i find it ingenious BUT i realize that no real world example will be perfect so first of all if you are trading from 3 box reversal chart would you determine your HPP(horizontal price projection) from the 3 box chart or a 1 box chart.
Lets use LDK (3box/highlow) as an example in this chart if i use the 3 box reversal there seems to be major support at the $30 level with the exception of when the market as a whole was weak in January so if I go one box above the $30 level (as they did in that article) and count the boxes of the formation i get 20-21 boxes and if i add that i get a HPP of $51-$52.
IS this the correct way of using this method or am i doing something wrong?
here is the chart http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...3!!!2!20]&pnf=y
maybe not the best example since last time it had a smaller horizontal formation yet it ran up even higher... weird stock..
Quote from pnf.guy:
Dentist: You said "eurodollar deposit rates are showing that interest rates in euroland are going up a tad.hence the chart is looking very bullsih.any comments".??
I'm kind of confused by that statement could you clarify if you have the time. Are you talking about the Eurodollar instrument that trades on the cme. When you say interest rates in the E.U. are you refering to the bund,bobl, or schatz. The instrument that is designed to track the movements in policy by the E.C.B. Or finally are just commenting on the Eur/Usd currency cross.
My take on Eur/Usd if that is what your are talking about is that its right at a pivotal point in both the short term and long term.
I see short term resistance at 1.5825 If that is breached it may continue the uptrend and breakout of the 1.6000 level. I personally would like to get long on a long term basis at 1.4900 so I'm hoping for a down leg here before it breaks the 1.6000 level.
pnf guy
i dont trade fx.but i do keep a vey watchful eye on fixed income,particularly the spreads on shrt and long term government bonds.mainly 2 year and 10 year.i think these are the main lead indecators for the fx market
Quote from staffpro:
ok now another question about the horizontal/vertical projections i read the articles from the traders laboratory for determining objectives using the horizontal/vertical projection method and i find it ingenious BUT i realize that no real world example will be perfect so first of all if you are trading from 3 box reversal chart would you determine your HPP(horizontal price projection) from the 3 box chart or a 1 box chart.
Lets use LDK (3box/highlow) as an example in this chart if i use the 3 box reversal there seems to be major support at the $30 level with the exception of when the market as a whole was weak in January so if I go one box above the $30 level (as they did in that article) and count the boxes of the formation i get 20-21 boxes and if i add that i get a HPP of $51-$52.
IS this the correct way of using this method or am i doing something wrong?
here is the chart http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...3!!!2!20]&pnf=y
seem to take weeks- to months (depends on stock) to materialize.
1 box reversal chart do tell you more about what is actually going on.however the 45 degree trendlines are broken more often so are not reaally so important.but still draw them.all patterns will be wider than the 3 box.youre analysis in the end should be done with both 1 and 3 reversals
thanks dentist!
Quote from flyinglead:
Bullseye Broker
thanks
I was wondering why the two charts were so far off.
Guess my Fundamental analysis isn't up to par yet
Hello every one.
Hello to all, and allow me to thank you all for great thread, and of course special thanks to the man that started it all, HG!
I have been following the thread for a while now. And i feel very lucky to have found it. I actually trade the forex,-( that's mostly why i never tried to participate in the thread until today)- and when i tried the P&F, found it to be of great help. But i'm a little confused about a few things, and i'd appreciate any help from you guys, and of course from you HG.
I trade intraday charts, mainly hourly, and m30. Now i know that time in theory is irrelevant in P&F, but when i started using them i found that they are based on the high, open, close, or the low prices. So in my case they are based on the OCHL of each hour. So, again the chart differs notably from one time frame to another. What is confusing to me is that if i use High prices in my chart, i find that the chart ignores the low swings, and if i use Low prices, then my chart ignores the high swings. and the same for close and open prices. Very often these swings are very wide, and cannot be ignored, or considered market noise!
I attached two screen shots of the chart i'm using, one with the chart based on High, and the other one based on the low.
You can see the difference between the high swing and the low swing, and they are both taken at the same time.
What would you advise me?
Apparently i can only upload one image at a time, here is the othre one!
weeed7.
there are differences in the method of presentation of the data in p/f terms.the calculation is from the preceeding box,not the close/hi or lo of the day.
the high/low presentation.say the eurusd is in an uptrend it will only print the next box if the hi of the next period goes beyond the next box in price terms.if price reverses by an amount of 3 boxes calculated from the last box.ie the low.then it will print a reversal
the close method calculates the next box from the close of the period in question and ignores the high and the low of the period in question
so the high and low method keeps you in the trend and ignores noise
that is why i think youre charts dont lookm the same
weeed7.the boxes on vt navigator look to be plotted either from the high or the low.you choose which one.
this is wrong.the plot should be calculated by youre software as i have said previuosly.the best method round this is to go down a timeframe and use close only data.ie the box is calculated from the close of the previous period.so a 15 min chart.close only data
cable:gbpusd.here is a 1 box reversal hilo.box size is 50 pips
you can see a long upward column and the start of a retrace.long column meaning the price was overstretched
Thank you very much Dentist007.
Let me make sure i understand what you are saying.
If the price is in an up trend, meaning a column of Xs. then as long as the price is making new highs, the chart will keep printing new Xs! until a reversal of 3 boxes takes place, only then the chart will start a new column of 0s. And in this case, new lows will count, right? So, high price when in an up trend, and low price when in downtrend. am i getting this right or not?
Because i don't think this is what my charts are doing, i think they are using only one price in all cases, meaning if i chose to use the high, then even when the pair is in a downtrend the chart will still count the highs only.
Just follow this flowchart
http://208.149.108.62/cgi-bin/foxwe...lesson=1&page=4
weed7.
yes you have it.that is why you have to look at hilo and close charts.both will give you different information.however the more information you have the better.that is why p/f can give you far more information about the price action than candles.
hoolee.yes the dorsey wright is the chartcraft method of p/f charting.the hilo method.the close price is another method.both give you information on building a picture
weeed 7.go down a timeframe and use the close.that is the better method
Thank you Dentist007, and Hoolee,
It's clear to me now how to build the chart. It's also clear that the people who built VT need to learn how to build it too
I think i will try your way Dentist007 and let you know how it goes.
Thanks again
Weed, welcome aboard the thread. I have recently made a transition to forex my self. Honestly I love the difference. I use point and figure for tactical descions on a intra-day basis. Its amazing how well it works.
I know exactly what you are talking about how different time frames will give different charts. A 1m can be different than a 2m,3m,5m,10m etc using the same box size and reversal amount.
Its my opinion you can disregard what many books say that time has no effect its simply not true for intra day charting. Time does in fact have an important role.
Your problem seems really simple you are not setting your charts up right. You must take the high-low range rather than just the high. If you can't figure it out just call your broker they should be able to help you
Quote from pnf.guy:
Weed, welcome aboard the thread. I have recently made a transition to forex my self. Honestly I love the difference. I use point and figure for tactical descions on a intra-day basis. Its amazing how well it works.
I know exactly what you are talking about how different time frames will give different charts. A 1m can be different than a 2m,3m,5m,10m etc using the same box size and reversal amount.
Its my opinion you can disregard what many books say that time has no effect its simply not true for intra day charting. Time does in fact have an important role.
Your problem seems really simple you are not setting your charts up right. You must take the high-low range rather than just the high. If you can't figure it out just call your broker they should be able to help you
Quote from pnf.guy:
Your problem seems really simple you are not setting your charts up right. You must take the high-low range rather than just the high. If you can't figure it out just call your broker they should be able to help you [/B]
I trade forex with saxobank and they offer P&F charts. They are not the best but they do the basic job just fine.
Quote from pnf.guy:
I trade forex with saxobank and they offer P&F charts. They are not the best but they do the basic job just fine.
Just a note of caution for swing traders. Today the bullish percent column changed to an O column. This does not necessarily mean anything other than perhaps tightening stops on all longs at this time.
thnx hg, tried to cover long puts at close,actually sell options against longs and did not get them off
Quote from HolyGrail:
Just a note of caution for swing traders. Today the bullish percent column changed to an O column. This does not necessarily mean anything other than perhaps tightening stops on all longs at this time.
Quote from pnf.guy:
I trade forex with saxobank and they offer P&F charts. They are not the best but they do the basic job just fine.
hg, pnf, what's the pnf telling you an spx
ammo: how long is a thong,..????
shorter than a piece of floss,with more snap
Quote from HooLee:
Thank you. BP of your 800 stock database, or SPX index?
Quote from ammo:
hg, pnf, what's the pnf telling you an spx
good one ammo...i like it
back to the original thread...holygrail...post the chart and also give us the basic makeup of youre 800.
are they nyse or nas?
what perecentage of each.is there a min volume or capitalisation.??
They are the top 800 largest volume stocks on both the nas and nyse.
I really have no idea on the percentage makeup of my index. I guess I ought to look at that, but it will take me time to develop that info.
thanks hg
Quote from HolyGrail:
It's telling me we are in a trading range unless we break through 1440.
ammo
1 box reversal chart.5 points hilo data.eod
u can see there is an uptrend with a wall of resistance at 1400
however,there is an internal trendline/downwards by virtue of the double-bottom breakdown at 1390
so 1400 break will keep the uptrend .the internal downtrend line does not negate until 1440 area as holygrail posted
the only way to see what is happening is to go down a timeframe.ie hourly close data to define the trend,as there is no real trend on the daily
if there are conflicting trends,then the market is neutral and you have to go down to see if there are shorter term trending signals
spx
a 3box reversal.5 point hi lo.
there are conflicting signals.there is an uptrend line/blue line
bt the last signal was a double-bottom.and as you can see it will take a break above 1440 to have another double-top
also there is an upward column
thanx doc
updata have just added some indecators based on p/f columns.they only work on log scale charts.ie 1% box size and 3 box reversal
as you know p/f has o time scale .so the indecators are based on column lengths.the indecator will not match up to the p/f chart normally.so the measurement is taken by the column length.
so you can now see overbought/oversold and divergences.the same as you would see on a bar/candlestick chart
so there can be lower indecators like macd,rsi obv and directional movement all based on column lengths
enclosed is a chart of admiral insurance a uk stock with a macd indecator.setting are 6/13 and 9 as signal.all exponential.it does give you more information
only tried it out today.so early days for this
there is a sell signal on the s&p500,5point hilo.3 box reversal chart..eod data.the macd is 12,26/9.the ma is based on column lengths.
so i will watch the outcome and see how good this new indecator is
the new indecators are written about by jeremy duplessis in the book "breakthroughs in technical analysis."you can preveiw the chapter on google books.however,only updata has the indecators
enclosed is a better chart.the book states that the indecators should only be used on log scale charts.so the macd is confirming the double-bottom breakout on the chart.1283 is the downside count.could be the non farm payrolls that start the action
doc, 1400 -1440 gap area is lightly traded on this chart, its possible we have one more fill in there in next 2 weeks before going down,odds are in favor of that because sentiment is overwhelmimg that we go down from here,we get a dip in the early part of week and them climb
Quote from dentist007:
there is a sell signal on the s&p500,5point hilo.3 box reversal chart..eod data.the macd is 12,26/9.the ma is based on column lengths.
so i will watch the outcome and see how good this new indecator is
the new indecators are written about by jeremy duplessis in the book "breakthroughs in technical analysis."you can preveiw the chapter on google books.however,only updata has the indecators
MPEL according to stockcharts had a P&F breakout signal to the upside when I bought 200 shares plus good news about increased revenue and profit.
Now it has fallen a couple points, and stockcharts based on P&F is stating that it is a sell, and they give a price target.
However, I have decided to ignore this due to some fundalmental facts.
1) Stock is near long term chart support.
2) They are openning a new casino next year.
3) Licenses have been locked so no more new operators can enter the market for now.
I have decided to buy another 200 shares. If the stock does fall down from $ 11/sh to $ 8/sh, I will double up again and buy another 400 shares. I bet one day in the future the stock does get another p and f breakout to the upside.
Quote from oraclewizard77:
MPEL according to stockcharts had a P&F breakout signal to the upside when I bought 200 shares plus good news about increased revenue and profit.
Now it has fallen a couple points, and stockcharts based on P&F is stating that it is a sell, and they give a price target.
However, I have decided to ignore this due to some fundalmental facts.
1) Stock is near long term chart support.
2) They are openning a new casino next year.
3) Licenses have been locked so no more new operators can enter the market for now.
I have decided to buy another 200 shares. If the stock does fall down from $ 11/sh to $ 8/sh, I will double up again and buy another 400 shares. I bet one day in the future the stock does get another p and f breakout to the upside.
MPEL should be viewed on a .5 chart due to it's current price. Many times it is good to look at the next increment higher to get an idea what the chart is trying to tell us.
Looking at a .75 chart you will see that this stock has been in a steady two year downtrend.
Now I am not saying you can't make money on this stock. All I am saying is the trend is DOWN and you are trading counter trend and against pnf philosophy.
mpel...1 box reversal chart.0.25 box size.you can quite clearly see the price action.a major support area has been breached.uneless somesupport comes in you stand a better chance at roulette/russian
this stock is up today.good.i think u need to build a base above 11-25.this acting as a main support.enclosed is a chart with the new updata macd.ie macd based on the column lengths.you can see that the stock is not oversold as yet
March through May, the stock was in an uptrend when I bought it, I understand now I am posting, it is in a downtrend.
I guess from what you are saying, is if the signal changes, I should either reverse direction or take a stop loss.
I think you also mentioned you give a stock about 4 - 5 weeks to make a move, once you get a single, or if I am wrong, please correct me.
Quote from HolyGrail:
MPEL should be viewed on a .5 chart due to it's current price. Many times it is good to look at the next increment higher to get an idea what the chart is trying to tell us.
Looking at a .75 chart you will see that this stock has been in a steady two year downtrend.
Now I am not saying you can't make money on this stock. All I am saying is the trend is DOWN and you are trading counter trend and against pnf philosophy.
When a stock breaks through its bullish support line it is basically letting you know that there is no longer a clear trend.
When you are long a stock you should sell on any pnf sell signal UNLESS you are still above the bullish support line.
In this case you had a sell signal which also drops below the bullish support line. That is two strikes against you. The negative relative strength is strike three, IMO.
Quote from HolyGrail:
There are two types of methods to project price. One is the vertical count method, and the other is the horizontal count method.
Both methods should only be used after significant bottoms or tops.
First we will talk about vertical column price objectives. Once a stock makes a significant bottom you take the first buy signal off of that bottom and count the columns of that first reversal. Obviously you have to wait for that x column to complete before you can do this. Let's say the buy signal comes from a column that has 9 boxes.
The formula would be as follows 9*box size* reversal size or, in this case (my example will be the stock APC) 9*1*3=27. You would take that 27 and add it to the low point of the 9 box column which in this case is 40. The price projection would be 67.
There was a new significant low on APC in January of this year. Based on the first buy signal after that low APC should make it to 89. We will get to see in real time if it works.
I guess the main problems with these projections is you don't know what a significant high or low is until the move is pretty well under way.
Also as a note, some pnf'ers like Dorsey believe the formula should be column length* box size* 2 for short signals. This is used to account for the natural long bias of the market.
Maybe someone else can do the horizontal count. If not, I will do it when I get back. I am off to Austin, as one of my sons is graduating from the University of Texas today.
For some reason the chart would not upload .
http://clalloys.com/apcVerticalCount.png
Quote from subq:
Since you mentioned targets, I would also point out that Bullseye does not calculate price objectives normally...that is, vertical price targets as traditionally calculated.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I haven't checked his horizontal count, but his vertical count is correct. He basically takes the count of the column that has just given a buy or sell signal and multiplies the box size times the column count times 3 and adds it the the bottom of the column that created the signal.
Now I mentioned that dorsey recommends multiplying times two on shorts, but bulls-eye still uses 3.
Quote from subq:
However, the traditional rule is that the X (or O depending on the direction) column must be completed in order to establish a count. It appears he is doing the count of a column that is not completed yet.
I just checked the horizontal count on bulls eye broker, and it seems fine as well.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Yes, but he does show on the count that it is not completed as shown in the attachment.
I think you are being a little picky. Even though the column is incomplete that is what the target would be had it been complete. At least you have a minimum target because the vertical target cannot go any lower.
Personally I like horizontal targets better because they are much more conservative.
Maybe a ridiculous question, but, how often are these price targets hit?
i.e. what is the reliability of these patterns?
The horizontal target on the nq is 2052 right now. Let's see if it hits it. I am long with a target of 2051.50. This is on the .5 chart based on the last signal. it stands at 2048.50 as I post this.
lol I screwed up. It already hit the 2052.
Basically when you stay with the trend the horizontal target is a pretty good target.
Let's wait for the next bullish signal and check it out.
haha, not bad.
In my preliminary tests using PnF double,triple,quadruple top breakout signals (and exiting on bottom breakdown signals) [vice versa for short], there were lots and lots of small losses (that add up) and a few large gains that barely offset the losses.
(this was using adjust daily close for S&P 500 and Midcap stocks)
Any suggestions on how to make the backtest more reliable/accurate?
I am trying to get it so that it'll only make buy/sell decisions if RS is in an X/O column and higher than the max of the previous X/O column ... thoughts ?
ok we just got a bullish signal on the .5 at 2047. The horizontal price target is 2051.50. We are supposed to hit that before we hit 2044.
To provide more clarification, this was all done using 1X3 box/reversal, and was done more with a position trading view than day trading (plus I think it's easier/more accurate to backtest using daily data).
I think with the addition of relative strength against SPY and against the appropriate sector ETF will make the signals more reliable and have less losses.
I am still trying to figure out a good exit strategy - a PnF sell signal might make me exposed to some pretty large losses in the case of a huge run up, and subsequent retracement.
After I can get the comparison to relative strength working, I want to add bullish support/bearish resistance trendlines, which seems like it'll be the hardest part yet, for some reason.
well, as you can see it did not work too well. The market is tanking quickly and I don't know if it is due to any news.
ignore my last message
Quote from dentist007:
i dont understand why you want to backtest the siganls.p/f is a method of getting information about the behaviour of the price of an instrument
you are working in an environment where the information you get will always be incomplete.so you are just trying to get as much information as possible to try and make a decision.as you will find that candles /bars will also give you more info.
whether the stock/fx gave a better result from a triple/quad top is partly irrelevant as the build up to that is more important to see what follow thru you will get.s o a correlation with market breadth must be included
__________________
Freedom, I have much love for ya!!
Horizontal Target on the 1.0 for nq is 2051 before it hits 2039.
one thing you must document is that where the signals came from.ie 1/3 reversals.arithmetic or log box sizes
Well that target worked on the 1.0. I actually played that one. I got 6.75 points on one contract and 4.25 on the other.
Quote from ElCubano:
I saw that study and posted it a while ago (and posted another one or two), I want to reproduce it for myself and see if it really works.
Since I give RiskFreeTrading such a hard time about making claims without proof I will post the trades that I just said I placed. Small qty so not a big deal as it was a test.
Nice results.
Quote from yayt:
Nice results.
holygrail.why are you limiting the daytrading.?
Quote from dentist007:
holygrail.why are you limiting the daytrading.?
Just a note. If anyone took the EMR bullish catapult call from a couple of weeks ago, the horizontal target for that stock is 69.
TIF horizontal target is 58.
i thought that the business had priority.
thanks for the input on nq/es
Very Good trading HolyGrail. I am going to do the reverse of using fundalmental news to find a stock and ta to know when to get in.
Instead I will use for example pandf to find the stock, then do fa to determine if i want to invest / trade in it on a longer term basis.
I did sell some of the stock that had a reversal signal to limit my risk, but may buy more at a better price or on a new bullish pandf signal.
It seems none of you use S and R with pandf, but in my own system, I find it to be of some benefit.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I just don't have the time. I have neglected my business entirely too much, and THAT is my livelihood. Basically what I do now is look about once every hour or two and see if there is anything brewing on ES or NQ. If I trade I keep it to less than 3 trades a day, and let the chips fall as they may.
One thing I have noticed is that it is a good thing to have both nq and es charts up at the same time. I'm not going to come right out and say the nq leads ES, but I can say that there will be no sustained moves in ES without nq showing the same thing. When they are totally out of sync it is not worth taking on any trade.
what do you mean by S and R ? Support and resistance ? I thought that's exactly what pnf made more clear
I thought that PandF gave more clear signals vs candlesticks or other technical tools. But at least stockcharts will ignore support and resistance.
Quote from yayt:
what do you mean by S and R ? Support and resistance ? I thought that's exactly what pnf made more clear
Quote from oraclewizard77:
I thought that PandF gave more clear signals vs candlesticks or other technical tools. But at least stockcharts will ignore support and resistance.
Holy Grail, doesn't having your stop below the previous O column (or X column) expose you to potentially large losses (i.e. 10% or more?)
Is this acceptable as part of your trading strategy?
This is the one thing that's bothering me about PnF - I feel like, for my own personal trading, a better exit strategy is necessary.
Quote from yayt:
Holy Grail, doesn't having your stop below the previous O column (or X column) expose you to potentially large losses (i.e. 10% or more?)
Is this acceptable as part of your trading strategy?
This is the one thing that's bothering me about PnF - I feel like, for my own personal trading, a better exit strategy is necessary.
Here is an example of what I am talking about and what your thought process should be. It's just an example because I would probably not take this long trade because it is counter trend. If I did take the trade it would be for the easy money to 44.
Quote from yayt:
Maybe a ridiculous question, but, how often are these price targets hit?
i.e. what is the reliability of these patterns?
Quote from oraclewizard77:
I thought that PandF gave more clear signals vs candlesticks or other technical tools. But at least stockcharts will ignore support and resistance.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Your loss is never more than your original stop loss. You are moving that stop loss up as the price moves in your direction. If the risk is too much for your risk tolerance because the signal is far from where you would have to place your stop then don't take the trade.
Before you take any trade you have to decide at what point you would be wrong in your original assessment, and compare it to your potential reward. If it is greater than one to one I will normally take the trade. I prefer higher, but my winning percentage on trades is greater than 60% so one to one will still yield a decent profit.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Here is an example of what I am talking about and what your thought process should be. It's just an example because I would probably not take this long trade because it is counter trend. If I did take the trade it would be for the easy money to 44.
Well today I traded my pnf targets to see how they would work. I was undisciplined. I took too many early profits. Next time I will be more disciplined. I made 11 trades. I made two trades AGAINST THE TREND and lost on both. I did not lose on any with the trend. This should have been a much better day.
The key is to not use a new target price until the old one has reached its target.
How many contracts were you trading per trade?
Quote from HolyGrail:
Well today I traded my pnf targets to see how they would work. I was undisciplined. I took too many early profits. Next time I will be more disciplined. I made 11 trades. I made two trades AGAINST THE TREND and lost on both. I did not lose on any with the trend. This should have been a much better day.
The key is to not use a new target price until the old one has reached its target.
Mostly just one or sometimes 2. I could just shoot myself because my target was 1363 for the last half of the day and I left a good 6 points on the table.
It sounds like for some of your trades, you will trail the stop. However, I think you mentioned something about counting the number of x's on a column to determine the 1st target. Also, I would assume that targets for futures that are not hit by end of day, you manually close out to prevent overnight margin calls.
Can you please go over again how you set profit targets. Also, I would assume best trades are those with the trend. Finally, although I don't use RSI for my own trading, it does sound like you use it. Do you use it with all pandf trades that you take, and I would assume you are looking for example for RSI to either be coming down from the top for a short trade or coming up from the bottom for a long trade.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Mostly just one or sometimes 2. I could just shoot myself because my target was 1363 for the last half of the day and I left a good 6 points on the table.
__________________
...
Quote from MandelbrotSet:
Yeah, I saw your post earlier.
I didn't think it was going to happen (last friday was one-way drop as well), but you totally nailed it ... lesson learned AND money made.
I think you're gonna move up to the big leagues soon.
Quote from oraclewizard77:
It sounds like for some of your trades, you will trail the stop. However, I think you mentioned something about counting the number of x's on a column to determine the 1st target. Also, I would assume that targets for futures that are not hit by end of day, you manually close out to prevent overnight margin calls.
Can you please go over again how you set profit targets. Also, I would assume best trades are those with the trend. Finally, although I don't use RSI for my own trading, it does sound like you use it. Do you use it with all pandf trades that you take, and I would assume you are looking for example for RSI to either be coming down from the top for a short trade or coming up from the bottom for a long trade.
Ok, thanks that makes alot more sense.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Since I am working with different targets now I will only explain the targets I am now using.
There are two types of targets in Pnf. Vertical and Horizontal. I personally never have had success with vertical targets. A vertical target is computed after the column of a new pnf signal has completed. You take the number of boxes in the column and multiply it times 3. You take that number and multiply it times the box size, and then add it to the starting price of the column. Sometimes a vertical target is all we have because after a long column the horizontal target will actually be LESS than the stock is already trading. If a vertical target is all I have I will not take the trade based on the vertical target. I will just at the various resistance points and where the price is likely to have trouble penetrating. I will normally set my target one or two boxes away from that resistance point.
You also mentioned RSI. I don't use RSI. I use RS. RSI is a stocks performance relative to itself, while RS is a stocks relative performance versus an index.
Here is a chart of Hal with current and some previous price targets.
I added one more comment on the hal chart. With all pnf price projections it is absolutely essential that you do not use a new target until the old one was reached or obviously failed (bullish support line failure). New price targets should not be developed until a new trend is in place, or a breakout from consolidation outside of the previous trend)
for example, on the same chart I noted a vertical target for hal that is still in effect (from june 2005) because Hal has not violated its bullish support line. As long as that is true the vertical price targets seem to be fairly accurate.
Holgrail,
In regard to the NYSE Bullish Percent Index, what do you use as your BOX SIZE parameter ??
Thanks in advance.
__________________
"Those who can't do teach, those who can't teach, teach Gym."
2% per box with a three box reversal.
Thanks ! I was curious what you use. Seems like 1 point size with 3 point reversal was a better indicator to catch recent down drift from DOW 13,000.
__________________
"Those who can't do teach, those who can't teach, teach Gym."
I'm only following the conventions of pnf. I'm sure you can use anything you deem worthy. Just remember though, the lower the number the more whipsaws you will have.
Well let's see how good this target stuff works. Es is supposed to make it down to 1344 today based on the .75 chart..
Today was a slow day at the office so I did trade. I was up all day, but watched one 4 point gain turn into break even waiting on my target, and unfortunately I had 3 contracts short on my last trade so I went from plus 415 to -475 on the last trade of the day.
Thought I'd try testing a Neutral Bias trade to see if it will hold up for swing trading on a weekly basis. Looks good the first day, but will have to wait till Friday to see if it really works.
I haven't looked at the shorts yet, but your longs are EXCELLENT picks.
Just be careful on BUD as they are a rumoured acquisition which can change quickly.
Excellent Job!!!!!
thanks
My long term plan is to devise a system where I can get in Monday morning, get out Friday evening and have enough of a neutral bias that those down days like last week don't kill me if I don't watch it like a hawk all week.
Then spend Friday night picking the next weeks Portfolio
pattern
Hi, I have contacted Archer Analysis Pty Ltd which makes bulls eye broker about seeing if they will include this pattern. They said it was a custom development and are getting me a quote on the cost.
Once I get this information if any of you wish to partner with me and split the cost, please let me know.
Also, if I sell my current business I would like to start a LLC to trade using some of these patterns if anyone is interested with the main goal of converting to a hedge fund.
Quote from HolyGrail:
OK now for something you will not read in any book. It is what I call the failed double top buy signal or the failed double bottom signal.
If you trade this signal only for the rest of your trading days I PROMISE YOU WILL BE PROFITABLE.
You have your great failed signals, and you have you SUPER GREAT failed signals.
Here is a SUPER GREAT failed double top.
when volatility starts to rise and it aint even started you have to be quicker takng profits and losses because you will get caught on the wrong side of a few runners
Quote from HolyGrail:
Today was a slow day at the office so I did trade. I was up all day, but watched one 4 point gain turn into break even waiting on my target, and unfortunately I had 3 contracts short on my last trade so I went from plus 415 to -475 on the last trade of the day.
Quote from ammo:
when volatility starts to rise and it aint even started you have to be quicker takng profits and losses because you will get caught on the wrong side of a few runners
Here is where I think I went wrong yesterday.
Yesterday NQ was down all day.
ES was up most of the day.
I should have known there would be no large sustained moves in ES without major help from NQ. I should have set my targets lower or only trade when they were in sync.
So far there have been two horizontal long targets(out of 3) on the 1.0 ES chart that have been hit. Next target if trend continues is 1375.
Well I am done for the day. Didn't have many trades today, but I traded both NQ and ES. I had a 5 point gain on NQ that I let get to break even. (I set it up for an 8 point target, and left a helluva long 18 tic trailing stop). I also took a trade on the button trader simulator that I wanted to take in real time but didn't. Of course it was a good trade, lol.
Anyway, it was an OK day, nothing great.
Questions for Flyinglead.
Are you saying that no matter what, after one week you will terminate all positions? If not do you have targets on all positions?
I'm still working on that. I plan on terminating anything that isn't moving in the right direction. But still testing to see what is the best method.
I don't have a good handle on targets yet
I may have to switch to a two box reversal to do it this way.
Ironically, most of my longs went south today and most of my shorts rose.
The only concern I have about the potential of the system is that it will be quite possible to hang on to your losers and sell your winners, and if you sell all after one week it would seem like you will not have enough time to make any money.
That is true. And why I am only experimenting now.
I'm not sure why you couldn't consider weekly trading just an extension of daytrading. You exit all your trades at the end of the day don't you? Obviously, I will check the stocks each night in case I need to liquidate any that have reached my target, and will probably put stops on all of them.
One of my mistakes is that I bought too many that were on a pullback. To do it this way, I may have to only choose ones that are at the top of their breakout box (or bottom for shorts) plus I may have to choose ones that show plenty of short term movement.
that is one of the reason I prefer stockcharts over bullseye. You can tell instantly when you open a chart where the stock is currently trading in the last column. I can't seem to do that with Bullseye. Although checking the rs is a little more cumbersom for checking the ones I do like.
If you do plan to sell after a week no matter what, you might want to look at charts on a smaller box size to see what is really moving right at that time. If it should be on a 1 point go to .5 etc.
Yes I was thinking along those lines too. Will see how this week pans out then try a couple different scenerios this weekend
thanks
you could buy puts or calls for an overnight protection,they don't have to be 100% insurance, i.e. you could be short potash at 220 and buy the 230 calls on the close ,it would give you some protection on the upside and you would still profit if the stock opened down because you are not spread off 1 to 1,
Quote from ammo:
you could buy puts or calls for an overnight protection,they don't have to be 100% insurance, i.e. you could be short potash at 220 and buy the 230 calls on the close ,it would give you some protection on the upside and you would still profit if the stock opened down because you are not spread off 1 to 1,
Re: pattern
Within your post is the quote:
"Quote from HolyGrail:
OK now for something you will not read in any book. It is what I call the failed double top buy signal or the failed double bottom signal.
If you trade this signal only for the rest of your trading days I PROMISE YOU WILL BE PROFITABLE.
You have your great failed signals, and you have you SUPER GREAT failed signals.
Here is a SUPER GREAT failed double top."
Can you direct me to general area where HolyGrail made that post. I'd like to see the chart and have a better understanding of what I think he's describing.
Thanks,
Chuck
Quote from oraclewizard77:
Hi, I have contacted Archer Analysis Pty Ltd which makes bulls eye broker about seeing if they will include this pattern. They said it was a custom development and are getting me a quote on the cost.
Once I get this information if any of you wish to partner with me and split the cost, please let me know.
Also, if I sell my current business I would like to start a LLC to trade using some of these patterns if anyone is interested with the main goal of converting to a hedge fund.
It is displayed somewhere in this thread and also it is in this synopsis.
http://www.clalloys.com/pnf%20charting.pdf
page 5
Current cost is $ 240 for the changes about 3 hours work on their part at $ 80 per hour plus software license to use their product.
My understanding is from what they told me, they look for the reversal to occur one column after the failed buy or sell signal.
As noted, you need to be precise when telling someone what to program. I would like to know if this correct, and/or if anyone is willing to help me pay for programming.
If I need to give them any additional parameters, please let me know before I tell them to go ahead. I told them I am waiting to close out some long term positions before I can take full use of this product.
Thanks,
I would offer, but I really enjoy looking at my charts. I don't even use the scanner at all.
Strange day for me. I have made 5 trades and all successful, but I don't feel right. I should trade more I guess, because maybe this is how I am supposed to feel when everything goes right.
Anyway, I just feel too strange, so I am going to end the day and do the work I need to do at the office. Next Friday I leave for Italy for two weeks of R&R.
My longs still fell faster than my short stocks. mainly due to BNI.
It hit my stop.
Holy Grail:
Is this when you would short the stock on a reversal, even tho it is still above its Bullish support line??
Maybe with a target of just short of hitting the line??
Quote from flyinglead:
My longs still fell faster than my short stocks. mainly due to BNI.
It hit my stop.
Holy Grail:
Is this when you would short the stock on a reversal, even tho it is still above its Bullish support line??
With today's Retail Sales report, a breakout in SPLS is expected. Will you go long this stock?
Absolutely. A breakout up or down at that point in the chart would be significant.
SPLS is a perfect example of why I like to look at charts as opposed to using a scanner. Here you have a chart about to potentially breakout. It is close to its long term bullish support line, so either way a breakout should be significant. You want to have your order in before it breaks out. You could place a short order at 20, and a long order at 25 and have one order cancel the other.
Thanks. RS already broke up days ago, 1.25 box chart will also breakout at 25. I would take smaller position, if going long, since BP of NYA and SPX are in O.
I went in with a small position because I am going against the bullish % current column.
Absolutely pathetic day. I had 3 contracts on a terrible risk-reward play. Lost 1100 dollars and fought my way back to -245.10. I traded 12 round trips. This was really an easy day, and there was absolutely no excuse to lose money today.
HolyGrail,
.....as a newbie, very informative thread!
By the way I'm interested to know what you actually buy (forgive me if you've already covered this) i.e. do you buy:
- the actual Stock itself?
- CFD (contracts for difference)?
- Spread Bets?
- something else?
What I'm really trying to establish is what level of leverage (if any) you use on your transactions.
If you don't use any leverage (i.e. if you just buy the stock with available cash) I'd be interested to know why? (especially when you have what you consider to be strong signals)
No, I don't use any leverage. Why? Because I don't need or want to. I am at an age and financial condition where protection of assets is by far the most important aspect of my trading. I want consistent returns above the market. I'm not out to set any records, or win any contests.
Holygrail,
Thanks - that's a good enough reason to not use any leverage. Sensible approach!
Are you willing to share approximately what percentage gain you've made per annum since you started using P&F methods successfully?
(Also, assumming your trading account is only partly invested in stocks at any one time - is your increase expressed as a percentage of your whole account or just as a percentage of the funds you've invested?)
I'm really just trying to understand what returns someone could reasonably expect to make - assumming they use P&F effectively and assumming they only look for trades which are 'good bets' rather than jumping in on everything that could be a signal (which looks like your approach).
Quote from HolyGrail:
No, I don't use any leverage. Why? Because I don't need or want to. I am at an age and financial condition where protection of assets is by far the most important aspect of my trading. I want consistent returns above the market. I'm not out to set any records, or win any contests.
Quote from Sam20080617:
Holygrail,
I'm really just trying to understand what returns someone could reasonably expect to make - assumming they use P&F effectively and assumming they only look for trades which are 'good bets' rather than jumping in on everything that could be a signal (which looks like your approach).
So far, my testing of the Neutral bias swing trading using PNF has been looking good. (approx even $ amount of long and short stocks)
Although last week was a wash. ( Short stocks went up just as fast as the long stocks). This week the longs are creeping up and the short stocks are plummeting.
Although my goal to do it on a weekly basis doesn't look realistic, given my current situation. ( I 'm gone a lot)
It appears a 1% per week gain may be possible, but even a .5% would be acceptable.
I'll post results, as soon as I can figure a better way to upload a chart of the portfolio.
Sure would like to see results of other people that are swing trading more than one stock at a time using Pnf. ( What signal they got in on, how they performed , and when they got out.)
Good trading to all. I'm off to italy for two weeks first thing in the morning.
have fun! am heading to Apain in about 2 weeks myself, Europe is amazing, good to experience something unamerican once in a while.
Thanks, and have fun on yours. The good part is I get to spend some of my WORTHLESS dollars.
Too bad Italy still doesn't use the Lira....you'd actually be able to buy something with your $$$.
Have a great time, just stay away from Naples. They're still having garbage problems there.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Good trading to all. I'm off to italy for two weeks first thing in the morning.
just join here
Quote from HolyGrail:
Good trading to all. I'm off to italy for two weeks first thing in the morning.
__________________
happy person
Seems this thread is dying a slow death. Is nobody actively using PnF much that likes to post or are you all afraid to give away any more info.
So far my paper trading using the PnF has been doing great, but doing it in real time will be the best test. Which I will do in a month or two when my real job slows down and I have time to get everything set up.
Since my system relies on an equal amount of short and long stocks, I was wondering how hard is it to go short on stocks? I keep reading that it is being frowned on more and more. If I can't short stocks, I will have to test a different method.
thanks
OP is on vacation, as far as topics to discuss everything has pretty much been said. Lately all that's been going on are questions or discussing possible stock picks.
speaking of which GLD whihc is the gold etf has a pending double top breakout on the 1 box rev @ 89.00 and on the 3 box if it were to break 90.00 then it will be a very strong bearish signal reversed.
i think all will be determined by today's FOMC announcement...
My backtesting going long only using double,triple,quadruple and ascending double,triple,quaduple top breakout had approximately 1% loss for S&P 500 stocks for jan1 2007 to june5 2008.
I didn't backtest going short yet. But I'm trying to see if it's possible to get a profit, stay out of low probability trades, etc.
Was the testing done with all buy signals, not taking into account Bulllish %, RS, and whether is was above or below its Bullish support line?
Where did you set the stops and the limits?
It was using RS; stop was 1 below the low of the last o column
how can we make this better ? I can't figure out how to program bullish support line ; I'll look into that next
no postings please until holygrail gets back from italy
just joking
this thread is dying.there are still many points to be added.so i am sure it will continue
basically,p/f is an easy method to learn.the signals are unambiguous
Backtesting PnF
For those that are using InvestorRT to do their PnF charting, have any of you used it to do backtesting?
The documentation is poor on linnsoft's site. I was hoping to get some information on how to find what the values for the high and low boxes are for a given column.
Thanks for any reply.
b.
lot of long tail down signals forming. Is anyone poised to go long on the first signal or is it just going to be a pullback and then drop further.
low prob
Yes, there seems to be back fill (for example the price moves back down over the next week or month after a signal) when taking a signal especially long, but we are currently in a bear market.
May be a better system if I could also short in the account I manage. Currently I think if you are investing not trading, there are some very good stocks to hold long term right now, of course I could be wrong if oil hits $ 300 but I do have some energy stocks to diversify.
Quote from yayt:
My backtesting going long only using double,triple,quadruple and ascending double,triple,quaduple top breakout had approximately 1% loss for S&P 500 stocks for jan1 2007 to june5 2008.
I didn't backtest going short yet. But I'm trying to see if it's possible to get a profit, stay out of low probability trades, etc.
Don't mean to go off topic here...
Been following on and off since the start.
Question is, I'm using DTN ProphetX but the P&F is not reliable/accurate. I tried InvestorRT, but the interface and usability is very difficult and time consuming (downright awful)...I trade a variety of products and often need to pull up a chart of something quickly.
Any other suggestions on software packages?
I am enthralled by this post.. I've been reading it for the last 2 hours and still have a ways to go. Glad to see another Houstonian on this board.
HG, what are your TOP 3 performing long signals??
Hi HG/Howard,
thanks for the great thread. I just finished dorsey's book and read through the first 1/3 of this thread and want to summarize for my own benefit and also to confirm my understanding and some questions.
If any of the below is wrong, please make the correction.
Patterns
I know many patterns are discussed, but i just want to focus on the basic ones as to keep it simple.
Best probability
False Double/Triple bottoms & tops
1) False double bottom (triple is same except add 2 more columns (xo pair) before the fakeout).
| o | x | <--LONG SIGNAL | ||||
| o | x | x | ||||
| o | x | o | x | |||
| o | x | o | x | |||
| o | o | x | ||||
| o | ||||||
| <--STOPLOSS |
| <--STOP LOSS | ||||||
| x | ||||||
| x | x | o | ||||
| x | o | x | o | |||
| x | o | x | o | |||
| x | o | o | ||||
| o | <--SHORT SIGNAL |
| <--STOP LOSS | ||||||
| x | ||||||
| o | x | x | o | |||
| o | x | o | x | o | ||
| o | x | o | x | o | ||
| o | o | o | ||||
| o | <--SHORT SIGNAL |
| x | <--LONG SIGNAL | |||||
| x | x | x | ||||
| x | o | x | o | x | ||
| x | o | x | o | x | ||
| x | o | o | ||||
| <--STOP LOSS |
Quote from HolyGrail:
We need three points for a reversal so a reversal will occur at 25.00. To get a double top buy signal it will need to get to 26.
So even though it has not reversed as yet we place an order to go long at 26.00.
our stop will be at 21.00 if the stock does have a reversal.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...&postid=1850249
I'm still in vacation mode, but I am back. I still haven't even looked at a chart yet, although I do see that the spy broke it's 5 year trend to the downside. Hope everyone made money while I was gone. I've been busy making dvd's of the trip as I took over 1300 pictures(trimmed down to 640), and about 4 hours of movies.
its gonna take you a while to recover from the pasta and chianti.hope you had a good time.did you travel around.?
we are flying to venice on saturday,going for a cruise round the med finishing in barcelona
We had a great time. We went to Venice,Pisa(yuck), Florence, Assisi, Rome, Pompeii, Sorrento, and Capri.
We met some really great people, and we all planned on meeting again in Sicily for a couple of weeks in 2010.
Quote from HolyGrail:
We had a great time. We went to Venice,Pisa(yuck), Florence, Assisi, Rome, Pompeii, Sorrento, and Capri.
We met some really great people, and we all planned on meeting again in Sicily for a couple of weeks in 2010.
__________________
Freedom, I have much love for ya!!
I was in Capri back in 1978. Our hotel room cost only $5 a night and we had to share the bathroom (we were students) but the scenary was beautiful and I still dream of the pizzas.
holygrail.. maestro
tell us about the chianti,the montepulciano
spaghetti alla vongole,fetuccini alfredo
opera in sienna
fantastico.maestro
bravo
takes my mind of x and o columns
nooooo, lets talk about the x and o!!! it's all about the x and o!!
Quote from newguy05:
4) Why are the below 2 chart different, 1 is from your attachment, the other is from stockcharts.com For the life of me i cannot figure out why. (It's not high/low vs close, i tried both, box size etc are also the same).
LEH: I put the difference in the red box
Your chart: http://spoki.com/showphoto.php?photo_id=29
Stockcharts.com: http://spoki.com/showphoto.php?photo_id=30
thank you once again! [/B]
the only difference could be the method of calculation,the next box should be calculated from the previous box reading not the hi/lo reading
this is why i use updata.they guarantee that the box calculation method is the correct one.this is a very important factor when you pay for software.as you saw previously that trade navigator has the wrong method of calculation
Holy Grail, or anyone else.
I am having terrible results if I buy ( or short) on a pullback after the breakout signal. But great results if I only buy when the price is still in the last box. any comments, same or different results?
I use daily high/low not close.
In the last box meaning, just before it breaks out?
Can you give an example?
I have had good results in my limited trading buying well after the buy signals on down days
After it breaks out, but then pulls back at least one box
DF gave a short signal at 18, then pulled back up a box. Buy thinking you may get in at a higher price, before it continues down, but it continues up. Still not stopped out tho.
well if it helps I just added to my long cmi position and short mt position (at 66.4 and 78.8 respectively )
cmi is similiar to what I'm talking about. Mt is in the last box (but well after the breakout signal.)
do you have a trailing stop on MT ?
Yeah, if it gets above 80 I'm out
Take a look at UYG, this is either a great Long... or Short opportunity .. lol
Will this be a failed double top breakout or will it actually BE a double top breakout? (Close values, High/Low shows a breakout already)
It may be a double top breakout, but how far down do you go before you determine you were wrong?
this is a pattern I have noticed on quite a few charts that I have been trying to develope into a good signal.. Approx 10 boxes down and right back up (or visa-versa). if it then goes down 3 boxes at some point soon and back up four, buy for a 5 point target. However , I think it only works when it is trending the right way first.
Great thread. A couple questions for those in the know...
Is there a free intraday PNF charting service (delayed) available anywhere online?
For the paid services you guys are using, it looks like most are using either bulls eye broker or investor RT... does one have advantages over the other?
So MT was a wash ... Hope cmi keeps doin what it does
I know what you mean flyinGlead, I just try to make a stop at 3 dollars below the entry
Price. Currently abt is still a loss for me but I entered at 57 so not going to sell that yet ;
What do you think of COV?
Actually, to keep the thread going and to learn from each other, I think I will start posting possible trades I made (in case anyone cares). Just as a warning, I barely have no idea what I'm doing ... lol
Right now I am Long ABT since it was about 57, long CMI when it was at 61 and again when it was at 66 and change.
CMI +200 (Realized Gain)
CMI +$130
ABT - $100
MT - $200 (Realized Loss)
So all in I'm up $30 over the past couple weeks ... great! lol
MT was just a stupid mistake, I really had no reason to add to my position on Friday - that alone cost me $150.
Quote from yayt:
What do you think of COV?
COV hit 50.91
After hrs hit 51.00
Did you already buy yayt? You'd already be money ahead, but would you be a true PnFer?
Do any of the PNF charts take into consideration after hr prices?
Hey,
Nope, I didn't buy COV, I will probably buy tomorrow, depending on how it does.
Any other stocks catch your eye?
As an update,
CMI +230 (up $100 from yesterday)
ABT -70 (up $30 from yesterday)
CMI I will probably sell half my position and hold the other for earnings - I think it's due for a pullback tomorrow ... hope it doesn't gap down!
Also, I'm not sure about the after hours. Also, I think it's better to buy right before the breakout if everything else is in place - at least, according to my still-preliminary backtesting.
Work keeps getting in the way of my trading lessons. Half way thru developing my own list of stocks to scan.
last 4 I picked out have done horrible.
DF & TROW short, and
FE and SYK long
I think SYK might do well, I was thinking about going in but I already have ABT, which is just pissing me off, but that's besides the point.
Sold half my CMI position, $210 net.
Other half is currently up $140.
Thinking about what else to go into ...
Yayt
Have you done any backtesting comparing End of Day to High/Low and only when both give good signal??
I've only been using H/L, but going back and looking at some of my bad picks, comparing both, The EOD didn't give a good signal.
Quote from yayt:
Thinking about what else to go into ...
I don't really like the volume and it's kind of a sloth ... took months to move a couple of bucks; that would especially hurt with options
What do you think of IBN? On the Close chart it's looking like a good entry point, 40 Aug Calls
As for the backtesting, I only did it with Close, not High/Low.
So after reviewing some charts, I think EGN might also be good to pursue ... I'll let you know if I go long IBN, short EGN
I really need some way to see what the news stocks are and the ones with the most volume, something like EGN would have been a ridiculously easy trade today ... and no one can claim hindsight 20/20 on that one ;)
I attached a renko chart because I like the way it looks in QuoteTracker better than PnF; pretty much the same thing since for day trading I like to use a 1 box reversal anyway
Quote from yayt:
So after reviewing some charts, I think EGN might also be good to pursue ... I'll let you know if I go long IBN, short EGN
I really need some way to see what the news stocks are and the ones with the most volume, something like EGN would have been a ridiculously easy trade today ... and no one can claim hindsight 20/20 on that one ;)
I attached a renko chart because I like the way it looks in QuoteTracker better than PnF; pretty much the same thing since for day trading I like to use a 1 box reversal anyway
I've watched this thread for some time and enjoyed it having used P*F charts for a long time as the final confirmation of trades I'm, help me establish targets and stay with trends. I've not wanted to comment though because the thread has gone so well and I don't want to bring anything negative to it. However, I think that the chart of JNJ is one worth looking at for a breakout if it gives the setup.
Quote from Brandonf:
I've watched this thread for some time and enjoyed it having used P*F charts for a long time as the final confirmation of trades I'm, help me establish targets and stay with trends. I've not wanted to comment though because the thread has gone so well and I don't want to bring anything negative to it. However, I think that the chart of JNJ is one worth looking at for a breakout if it gives the setup.
I notice it yesterday, while working thru the J, K & L putting together my scan list.
But on my Stockcharts chart, both Close and High/low, it already shows a breakout signal at 68 (which it already reached), so why isn't it already considered a buy?
thanks
After I posted that, I see that Bullseye and Stockcharts are quite different. This is not the first time. I wonder which is correct or do we have the charts set up differently?
Stockcharts indicates that jnj hadn't closed above 67.99 or even hit 68 in the last couple years, so it should be easy to see which is correct.
Bullseye shows it got to 69 twice
Is there a good site or chart to show a daily end of day and high/low for a specific stock for the last 2 years?
High/Low
close
Quote from yayt:
I really need some way to see what the news stocks are and the ones with the most volume, something like EGN would have been a ridiculously easy trade today ... and no one can claim hindsight 20/20 on that one ;)
LIFE SCIENCES RESEAR(NYSEArca: LSR)
Last Trade: 34.05
Change: 1.78 (5.52%)
Nice call flyinglead, although I'm still glad I didn't get in on it, kind of illiquid (50K volume). Hope it goes well for you!
I held EGN for a day, made a quick $50 off of it. Currently I'm just long CMI and ABT.
Also, FlyingLead you are right, JNJ has never been above 70 (or 69, or 68). I'm using Stockcharts.com. I really want to get in on JNJ on a pullback.
Quote from Brandonf:
used P*F charts for a long time as the final confirmation of trades I'm, help me establish targets and stay with trends.
Quote from yayt:
Currently I'm just long CMI and ABT.
Hey,
Sold out of CMI when it was at ~74 (Sold call option for $4.20)
+160
ABT is most likely going to expire worthless for a $125 loss. Oh well.
Anyway, time to look out for new opportunities.
Quote from flyinglead:
Brandonf,
I'm kinda curious what you use as your initial signal since you use PNF as a final confirmation.
Since I am doing it just the opposite. Using PNF as my initial signal and trying to develop other indicators as my confirmation.
Thanks Bf
I've still got a lot to work on
Quote from flyinglead:
Thanks Bf
I've still got a lot to work on
s&p 500.15 point box size.by 3 reversal
chart is displayed with vertical counts calculated by updata
take note of the latest count.this is a longer term chart.however,it is looking like we will revisit 2002/2003 lows.looking like nuclear war out there
bearish.short term until 1305 area is broken
even more bearish for oil.note the downside vertical count
even more bearish than s&p 500
dow also confirming the move down to 2002 /2003 lows.a longer term chart
however,there will be short term rallies.strategy saying short the rallies
jnj.enclosed a med term chart with trendlines and targets
abt.plenty of upside counts to 60-67 area.however,something nasty brewing.a downside count of 51.also the last signal was a double-bottom.need to see what the reaction is at 55 support area
cmi..
make youre own judgement
Thanks dentist
What software do you use to make those charts?
As for CMI I am out of it for the time being
nas 100.there are opposing counts .so no confirmed long term targets as yet.no big moves from the top that have not been negated .market will take its time on this one.it should follow thru the s&p 500.i think,eventually
cov
with counts
updata technical analyst.i use eod.costs $60 a month.includes data feed.
another trader posted about relative strength.before i went on vacation.
one thing about relative strength.it must have a look back period.ie rel strength from 03 jan 2008,etc
another thing about relative strength.some stocks ie utilities,oil producers etc, follow the oil price and the relative strength should be calculated against the oil price.use an etf for this
not all the stocks should have relative strength based against an index,that the oil price must be included in the chart.i nearly got caught out on this recently.
i was looking to go long on drax power,watching it to go long after the early morning shakeout.the stock gapped down 8% after a brokers note saying the stock was only strong because of the oil price...beware
Dentist, and others, what has been your experience day trading using PnF?
holygrail ,i think has the most experience day trading using p/f
updata charge $250 a month for intraday including data feed.a worthwhile expense.
df
opposing counts
this is not so bullish
last signal was a double-top in a downtrend.could be a pole.this a sign of weakness
Thanks dentist
I'm confused by your MT chart, it shows the price at ~100 while I see the price at 84.20 (U.S.)
this is the right chart for mt.
syk
opposing counts
Dentist, allow me to thank you for giving me the name of this amazing piece of software!
you really need to study the book by jeremy duplessis to get the most out of the software
Dentist, if you don't mind my asking, how successful has using P&F been for you, at least in terms of swing trading as that's what it seems you use it for?
I am kind of regretting spending all this time programming something to backtest when something like UpData exists that does all that I wanted and more, hah
so far ,very good.been using p/f for 3 years now.
better still,since i have been using holygrail consecutive rule.
this rule has made me more relaxed about my trading and saves me time when looking for trades
backtesting
in my opinion...dont waste youre time
the results will vary according to the phase of the market as a whole
so .for example: long positions will have had a better follow thru between march 2003 and march 2007.hence bullish % etc must be in the calculation
eyeballing is the best way
backtesting...
updata technical anlyst does have an optimisation programme.it will optimise the box size and reversal over a time period that has been put in by the user.it is optimising for maximum profit
imo it is better to eyeball
yayt:everybody wants to know the most profitable system.once they get wind of it.they go crazy thinking it is the holygrail
as you know there are thousands of systems/all profitable.
the only way i can put my point across is that p/f and will give you the most amount of information about an instrument and its volatility.what you do with this information is up to you
trading is all about working with incomplete information.the more you have the better decisions are made.there is no shortcut
Wondering if anyone can post an up-to-date 1x3 P&F of ES?
Would be interesting to see how this rally stacks up through P&F shades.
Thanks,
Osorico [on vacation]
ES 1x3
Not as nice as HooLee's (PnF is not Ensigns strongsuit), but here's 1x3 of ES 15 minute, expanded out a bit.
And an ES Daily 4x2.
Seems premature to get exicted, IMO
Today is a perfect example as to why you should never trade ES if NQ is not matching it. If nq is up and es is down it will be a choppy day, and vice versa.
Anyone who tried to trade a trend today got destroyed.
a good point.do you ever add ym into the mix.?
Quote from dentist007:
a good point.do you ever add ym into the mix.?
Mucho kudos
First off - thanx to HG particularly and also to many others for sharing their knowledge so generously.
I stumbled onto this thread yesterday and already have devoured thirty odd pages.
I've always leaned towards basic PA - the KISS method always sees to work best for me and now I'm rediscovering PNF.
I've attached a daily chart (CHF if it doesn't make it thru) that appears to conform to HG's DB Reversal trade.
Am I right?
If so, would a legitimate first target be
the 56 area - assuming that the 51 area is taken out?
TIA
Marc
Mucho kudos
Second try to post the chart..
Seems like a good short entry here with a 1 dollar stop
EDIT: On a quick look I probably wouldn't enter, as it has gone up quite a bit in the past couple of days on news
no target of 56 as yet.
box size is $1
3 reversal hilo
the stock is in a downtrend,however there is a recoil to an internal trendline.the last signal was a double-top,so it is bullish.
so thinking in holygrail terms,await the pullback and wait for a consecutive double-top.the 52 area is strong res.the pullbacks from 52 have been fierce
esclosed is a better chart.60 cent box size using close only
price.3 reversal
price is in a strong uptrend and has retraced back to the trend line.if it is a good spot to go long,if the trendline offers support..however,
price is in a downtrend and the last signal was bearish.also a vertical count of 36.6
price has turned today.but make sure that the trendline is the base for the next upswing
On an earlier Post, when I rcommended LSR, YAYT thought it was a no buy because of volume. Am I wrong to disregard volume in swing trading using PNF.
Currently I am judging a stock by its movement. I.e. distance from last numbered box.
enclosed is one good chart and one poor chart
Am I wrong to do it this way?
Good movement
worth considering
Poor Movement
disregard
lamar
good break upwards
acu
lamar
1 box chart.you can really see the price action more clearly.price is in an uptrend,but there are resistance areas coming up
lamar
a nice call.a major downtrend looks set to be broken.i think 40 bucks needs to be the base for any uptrend move.so another double-top above 40 needs to be seen/remember holygrail"s rules for change of trend.?consecutive signals
i dont trade us stocks,so just an opinion
thanks
I think their are a lot of stocks out there poised for an uptrend, but that will depend on what happens with our economy in the near future.
My initial question tho, is not about that particular stock or the particular breakout indicator but about using price action without volume.
ok
i think in some of the charting programs you can integrate a volume histogram.this will give you the areas where the action took place.
you might want to do some kind of market profile technique to do this
perhaps someone else could elaborate on this
in my mind p/f show some kind of volume characteristics as it shows raw supply and demand/price only,showing human instincts for greed
basically it shows raw supply and demand.what you get from this is up to you.but by increasing/decreasing box size and reversal size it will show you the price zones and patterns that might follow thru
What do you guys think of Monsanto?
Seems like the agriculture group in general has, at the least, paused their downtrend and several other agriculture names have broken out. In addition, I like that MON is still above several long term trend lines.
What do you think of ATM Sept. Calls?
Also, I am going to start swing trading using P&F and simulating day trading P&F soon, (I just started looking for some good entries) would any of you be interested in a journal of sorts? I don't want to litter Holygrail's thread, but would any of you read/find any value in a separate thread in the journals section?
Thanks for all the help thus far all
Wow talk about lack of attention to detail, all this time I was thinking Mosaic, not Monsanto.
Sorry guys, see attached:
This is in addition to a bullish triangle breakout on High/Low and a double top on Close only.
yayt
another updata user.few of us around here
mosaic.i think youre chart was too noisy.so i have isolated the price action for 08.gone up some box sizes and using 1 box reversal.i have marked the res areas from the upmoves.they are getting closer together above 140
Dentist, you don't remember? I got the name of the software from you
What's your verdict? I think I will pull the trigger tomorrow morning at open unless it gaps up
yayt
i have posted a better chart.the stock is in a downtrend.there is a sharp rally to trendline resistance area.there are opposing vertical counts.so not really great..imo
there is a major area of s/r at 115.
i am sure there are better ones around
Quote from yayt:
Also, I am going to start swing trading using P&F and simulating day trading P&F soon, (I just started looking for some good entries) would any of you be interested in a journal of sorts? I don't want to litter Holygrail's thread, but would any of you read/find any value in a separate thread in the journals section?
Tried to short KNM and was instantly rejected. Any idea why?? Not a shortable stock?
knm
nice break of support and retest.all downside vertical counts
a smaller box size on this chart
you must be verydisappointed that they would not let you short this stock
Ironically, when I select a bunch of stocks to short and long over the weekend, if the market goes down Monday, it seems like all my lons drop and my shorts go up,
KNM went up, probably be short lived tho.
s&p 500http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=
hoolee.thanks for the input on posting charts.i still cannot do it yet.
right click on "s&p 500.gif", then click on "Copy shortcut" on the popup menu, paste (keyboard: Ctrl+v) the link into your message body. (use Edit button to paste it into your new post)
(click on Quote to look at the code)
thanks hoolee.
i might get it right eventually.
i think it is much better to post the chart on the reply and not as an attachment.saves you flicking between open tabs
ted burge.he posts charts on stockcharts public charts listings.he uses a combination of p/f and other technical tools to create tedlines.has anybody got any experience of his methods.?
Hey all,
Does anyone know about the accuracy of point and figure charts on stockcharts.com? I want to use a stock scanner to look for stocks at a double bottom (to buy off support or to sell short off resistance) but am hesitant to pay for the service unless it is accurate.
I remember some posts before about some inconsistencies between stockcharts.com and other services. Can anyone provide further insight?
how much are they charging you.ie monthly fees $$$$
Dentist,what does your p&f tell you on the es?
long term or short term.give me an idea of youre time horizon and i will post a chart
daily and weekly ,i have a weekly bar at 1295 res using last 3 weeks ,this being the 4th,using tl's, i don't know how to read p&f so please explain ,thanks
ok ammo
s&p 500.this is a 1 box chart.ie 1 box of 15 points causes the columns to reverse.ie change direction.the red x are down moves of 15 points in this index.you can see res at 1320 and then just next to it 3 columns that could not go above the 1305 area.so yes 1300 area is major.there is also a shallow uptrend.so investors not being too bullish just yet.
this is probably equivalent to a weekly chart
there are horizontal counts of 1230 /down and 1365 upwards
hoolee...can u paste this chart into the thread so it is not an attachment.i still have not got the way to do this.i have tried a few thttp://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s
chart here
thanks for the explanation, i haven't figured out how to post a chart either so i always describe what i'm seeeing
short term/daily equivalent
Quote from dentist007:
ok ammo
s&p 500.this is a 1 box chart.ie 1 box of 15 points causes the columns to reverse.ie change direction.the red x are down moves of 15 points in this index.you can see res at 1320 and then just next to it 3 columns that could not go above the 1305 area.so yes 1300 area is major.there is also a shallow uptrend.so investors not being too bullish just yet.
this is probably equivalent to a weekly chart
there are horizontal counts of 1230 /down and 1365 upwards
hoolee...can u paste this chart into the thread so it is not an attachment.i still have not got the way to do this.i have tried a few thttp://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s
thanks hoolee
so hoolee,does that say above 1283,below 1320,as a range?,thanks for the chart
Quote from ammo:
so hoolee,does that say above 1283,below 1320,as a range?,thanks for the chart
dow
dow.
end of day data
box size 40 points.
3 box reversal.hilo data plot.ie the chart prints a new box if the high or the low is 40 points away.it will take 120 points,approx 2% to change column.
notice how the downtrend line keeps inthe price action.this is a 45 degree downtrendline.the chart does not become bullish until 11800 area is broken.this is in p/f terms.last p/f signal was double-bottom breakout at 11520 area.included are some vertical counts.this give you an idea of price targets that could be achieved
eurodollar:got a downside vertical count that has just got activated
holygrail....
it will be alot cheaper the next time you travel to italy
Quote from dentist007:
s&p 500.15 point box size.by 3 reversal
chart is displayed with vertical counts calculated by updata
take note of the latest count.this is a longer term chart.however,it is looking like we will revisit 2002/2003 lows.looking like nuclear war out there
Quote from yayt:
Dentist, and others, what has been your experience day trading using PnF?
Quote from yayt:
Dentist, allow me to thank you for giving me the name of this amazing piece of software!
Quote from yayt:
Hey all,
Does anyone know about the accuracy of point and figure charts on stockcharts.com? I want to use a stock scanner to look for stocks at a double bottom (to buy off support or to sell short off resistance) but am hesitant to pay for the service unless it is accurate.
I remember some posts before about some inconsistencies between stockcharts.com and other services. Can anyone provide further insight?
this is just Bullstick!!!!
this isn't the first time either.
As of now, all my longs except 2 are down substantually for the day and ALL my short stocks are up for the day. (about 15 of each). No wonder most traders are bald
I've got to do a lot better job of analysing the stocks than just good breakout patterns.
intraday s&p 500
5 min close data.box size 3points.3 box reversal.ie 9 points neede to make the columns reverse.
included are trendline.vertical counts and risk/rewrd ratios for each vertical count
a consolidation pattern.nothing excititing to see just yet
found an interesting chart on another website
nyse daily candlestick with a bullish percent chart superimposed for the nyse.there is a positve divergence here.ie nyse going down and bp% going up
anybody got any input on this one.?
Quote from dentist007:
[B]found an interesting chart on another website
nyse daily candlestick with a bullish percent chart superimposed for the nyse.there is a positve divergence here.ie nyse going down and bp% going up
anybody got any input on this one.?
dow jones index.
40 point box size with a 3 box reversal.hilo data config.a 45 degree downtrend line with vertical counts
on the lower chart is the macd calculated from the middle of the columns.not the close as in candle/bar charting.the setiing is 8/15,smoothing ema is 9
we can see that there is a regular peak divergence between the oscillator and price.a very strong signal providing support holds
ignore the above message.
no divergence is present.the oscillator did not achieve a higher low in the downtrend
S&P 500
4 points box size.3 box reversal.hilo data.a 45 degree downtrendlinea macd set on 5/12/9.there is a sequential divergence betwen price and oscillator.however,sequential signal is not as strong as immediate divergence.there is a cluster of counts at approx 1200.if the macd reverses then there will be immediate divergence/a stronger signal
gbpusd/cable
latest downside vertical count has been hit
an interesting chart of the s&p 500.i have put on a 1 box reversal chart.this is long term.
a 5% box size.ie each box is 60 points.1 box reversal ie 60 points and the columns reverse.
observations:
price is in a downtrend,the last signal was a double-bottom at 1370 area.the 45 degree downtrend line has kept in the recent price action.however,notice the support area at 1240/this weeks price range.this is looking to be very important.
notice the step action of the downtrend with the recoil.the horizontal count is approx 1030.bear in mind that this is longer term.at the bottom is the years for this chart
Hey dentist,
thanks for keeping the thread alive, interesting charts.
So I've began my foray into day trading with P&F using QuoteTracker to create the charts (let the UpData trial lapse)
Basically I look for a breakout and then a pullback, and buy once the trend resumes again (assuming it pulls back all the way to the previous close of the O column - perhaps I should not restrict it to that?)
Also make sure it is in a solid up/down trend.
So, trading 100 shares of stock at a time, of an admittedly randomly selected group of stocks has led me to have the following results:
Wednesday: +108
Thursday: +137
Friday: +187
I seem to be getting better?
I will post some charts when I get a chance tomorrow
Okay, here is an example.
What I noticed when I first started looking into P&F was that, after a breakout, there was usually a pullback. I hated seeing those drawdowns. So why not buy at the pullback?
So I look for situations where the price breaks out, falls back to the previous O column, and then reverses 1 box (to confirm resuming of the trend).
Thoughts? Am I getting lucky pursuing a ridiculous strategy?
yayt
excellent stuff.keep up the good work
you are trading a catapult.ie a breakout.pullback into the pattern.no reversal signal given.then breakout again in the direction of youre trade.a catapult is usually a 1-3 box breakout from a triple-top.otherwise,if it is a double-top then b/o is classified a triple-top.
anyway,who cares what the classification of the pattern is ,so long as it is making you money
here is the mon chart yayt posted
There seemed to be a lot of signals fired off today from the strategy I've been implementing but I was honestly too scared of the volatility today, don't know if that makes me smart or stupid, hah.
How did you guys do?
On a side note, Flyinglead, your COV pick has done pretty well (and really weathered the storm today!)
Quote from dentist007:
yayt
excellent stuff.keep up the good work
you are trading a catapult.ie a breakout.pullback into the pattern.no reversal signal given.then breakout again in the direction of youre trade.a catapult is usually a 1-3 box breakout from a triple-top.otherwise,if it is a double-top then b/o is classified a triple-top.
anyway,who cares what the classification of the pattern is ,so long as it is making you money
here is the mon chart yayt posted
Quote from yayt:
On a side note, Flyinglead, your COV pick has done pretty well (and really weathered the storm today!)
After spending the last 4-5 months studying and papertrading the PnF charts, I think the real money is in a combination of PnF, and Fundamentals. Altho there are lots of good signals for breakouts, many act just the opposite to what the market is doing. ( a triple bottom breakout may go the opposite way on a down day) etc.
Checking the RSI and and BS% help, but sometimes it just seems like knowing what's going on in the market is a better indicator. Not only to find good buys, but to keep one away from bad buys.
Many of my stock picks were a wash. (probably because of my lack of good market study skills) but overall, they never hurt me.
A few stocks that were on my "watch list" thruout the last couple months that had potential for great profits or to keep one from making big losses were the following:
FNM @26
FRE @20
AIG @42
LEH @34
and a lot of the energy stocks when oil started to drop
Whether I will be able to follow thru on those type of trades when my TOS account gets funded will be the real test.
(and yes , I did have lots of bad picks too)
So I'm not touting my ability,(because I don't have any record yet) but just some observations
I assume you would have gone short those stocks?
Yeah, having a good fundamental base for taking action on a technical system seems to be a good way of doing things.
As it is, I think I would much prefer day trading using PnF, with the intent of automating it in the near future.
a classic text book chart pattern.bearish signal reversed
Quote from Brandonf:
I've watched this thread for some time and enjoyed it having used P*F charts for a long time as the final confirmation of trades I'm, help me establish targets and stay with trends. I've not wanted to comment though because the thread has gone so well and I don't want to bring anything negative to it. However, I think that the chart of JNJ is one worth looking at for a breakout if it gives the setup.
Hey,
For JNJ, I feel like it is fairly safe and it seems like it will indeed go up, but probably at this point, after having gone down so much, the momo stocks would probably vastly outperform, but of course they are also riskier.
perfect reversal pattern
Finally got my account transferred and my first trade was LSR.
OK I couldn't stand it. I've been watching it go up and after pulling back this week because of the markets I thought I'd buy even tho it wasn't a good pnf signal at the time.
All the pnf studying and my first real buy was a crappy signal, but we will see how it turns out.
At what price did you buy LSR?
For me, one of the biggest hurdles was getting over the emotions of the trade. Take it for what it's worth, but I suggest you set up a hard stop and a trailing stop, and possibly don't look at it so much - you are swing trading for a reason.
EDIT:
Sorry, I thought you were watching it go up and down after buying it.
But another part of the emotion is codifying your rules and only entering and exiting if it fits the rules (and always keeping in mind new opportunities to add to the rules if it's something you see recurring)
My .02
34.82
Not really sure one wants to buy any stocks at the moment, since everything is tanking so bad. Should be good buys once it settles down tho.
Would like to short a few since that is what I did a lot of in my papertrading, but thought I'd better study the pitfalls of shorting a little better before I go there.
Since the rest of the account is now in cash ( I had to divest myself of a couple broker bought stocks once it finished transferring, at a loss) , I can now take my time, look over the charts good.
thanks for the advice.
When are you gonna start your journal??
I actually forgot about it - I'll start it tomorrow. I will be day trading though, but I hope it helps you (and anyone else) and maybe I will get something out of it also
Any opinions? I put in an order to short @71.35
Quote from flyinglead:
Any opinions? I put in an order to short @71.35
Since I'm using High/Low for my scan, I'm going to save a picture of both H/L and Close Only on my trades and see if Close Only would have warned me about a bad trade or too late in. For now, I'm just verifying Close Only doesn't have it going the other way.
If it goes the right way, I'm probably only going to ride it down a few dollars. Don't think it will get to the support line on Close Only
That sounds good
Didn't trade today, too volatile for my .20 box size - I am not yet used to different box sizes, but it has opened my eyes towards that idea, especially if I want to take part in more volatile markets.
But as it is, I am fine with what .20/1 has been giving me thus far.
At least you got to ride the wave today, LSR at 36 last I saw
And your short tech isn't doing so badly either, considering.
Wound up shorting TECH at 71.92 at the open so turned out ok. Peeked in half hour before close and saw it was going up pretty fast. Good thing my account was new and under 25000 so TOS won't let me day trade yet or I would have bailed. Which would have defeated the whole purpose of this exercise.
Quote from yayt:
Didn't trade today, too volatile for my .20 box size - I am not .
I've been looking at a more or less random basket of stocks that I'm slowly narrowing (and expanding)
Hopefully in a couple weeks I'll have a good, profitable list to day trade
Any suggestions?
there are some real up/down movers out there. Not sure that's what you want cause I haven't studied day trading . guy on another post said he made a lot of money trading Visa.
Post a couple stocks you've been watching and I'll see if I run across a few of those patterns. My scans are 3 box reversal approx .50 to $2 tho.
After all the bad news about shorting last night, and since I had a lot of work to do today that needed my total concentration, I decided to get out of Tech at the open. good thing I wasn't here to watch it whipsaw back and forth.
So back to the drawing board. No disipline, no edge, no faith. I'm gonna abandon most of the double bottom and double top breakouts because most that I am watching went the opposite way in this volatile market. At least till I can figure out what the key is to good double bottom and double picks. Maybe Look for a more complex pattern that is more consistent.
Quote from flyinglead:
After all the bad news about shorting last night, and since I had a lot of work to do today that needed my total concentration, I decided to get out of Tech at the open. good thing I wasn't here to watch it whipsaw back and forth.
So back to the drawing board. No disipline, no edge, no faith. I'm gonna abandon most of the double bottom and double top breakouts because most that I am watching went the opposite way in this volatile market. At least till I can figure out what the key is to good double bottom and double picks. Maybe Look for a more complex pattern that is more consistent.
I realize the market we are in is great for the educated, but maybe not for the student.
I've been trying to buy on a breakout of a double or triple top breakout.And Short the opposite. I am starting to recognize some of the reversals Like Holy Grails, so I will keep studying them.
One of my problems is my scan list is too large for the amount of time I can devote to checking charts. Takes me a whole weekend. So I need to weed out the ones that are undesireable.
second I'm not comfortable with shorting for real yet, so I didn't know what to take from the news of the Fed stopping all shorting ( I think just the financials for now). Presently, for shorts, I was going to get a good breakout, check the Days to Cover ( ideally 7 or under, but Tech was at 10) and make sure there are no dividends coming up.
Other than that, i guess you could say i don't have my ducks in a row, but until one starts doing it for real, he doesn't realize how many there were to line up.
Hah, indeed.
What about stops, trend lines, relative strength as compared to Industry or Major Index?
I think those would help weed out the bad ones
yes I have been comparing the RSI to S&P 500 and its sector. watching trendlines too. Stops I haven't got a good handle on yet. As volatile as its been, seems like stops will get hit regardless which way it goes.
I've read through a lot of this thread (like the first) 60 pages, and it seems very much like this system can be automated.
Has anyone tried to do so?
I created a trading system that can create events given any input of data streams.
ie :
given a PF real time stream, each event thread will monitor the stream, and when a given event is seen it will signal a certain way. ie buy or sell (like double top double bottom etc)
these signals can be built upon to colude with other detectors indicting bullish or bearish trends. (that people seem to be using like RSI) (or volume to indicate choppy days etc)
I'm wondering if people who trade this daily think it makes sense to attempt to automate a system around it?
(the paper i read on it isn't a very good idea on PL b/c I don't think they automated their order execution well. They also don't seem to take into consideration risk vs reward ..
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....7#PaperDownload
Hey phubaba,
Actually, I would really like to do so. I took something of a break from working on it, but if you'd like to work together on it, that'd be great. I am pretty certain automating it is not only possible, but makes sense considering one could monitor many more stocks than humanly possible (and react quicker).
I also read that paper a while back and agree, I think there is much to improve on, but regardless it seems just utilizing their approach would lead to profitability considering that the markets are only getting more and more volatile.
Quote from phubaba:
I've read through a lot of this thread (like the first) 60 pages, and it seems very much like this system can be automated.
Has anyone tried to do so?
I created a trading system that can create events given any input of data streams.
ie :
given a PF real time stream, each event thread will monitor the stream, and when a given event is seen it will signal a certain way. ie buy or sell (like double top double bottom etc)
these signals can be built upon to colude with other detectors indicting bullish or bearish trends. (that people seem to be using like RSI) (or volume to indicate choppy days etc)
I'm wondering if people who trade this daily think it makes sense to attempt to automate a system around it?
(the paper i read on it isn't a very good idea on PL b/c I don't think they automated their order execution well. They also don't seem to take into consideration risk vs reward ..
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....7#PaperDownload
CCIX
(any thoughts on this one ?)
close
looks good
I bought, so thats almost a guarantee its going down.
Did you trade yesterday.
One of the big problems I see so far with my system, Is I place my order at night, then go off to work before the markets open.
If I would wait till the markets open, and see which way its going, then I could buy on a bigger pullback or buy as its going up.
Buying in a bear market is probably my biggest problem tho. probably should be shorting more stocks. But finding ones with good signals is tough right now for me, they just been going down too fast.
flying lead,gleaning insight from your weekend posts,i assume you got smacked hard,you could try buying calls or puts instead of stock to limit your losses
thanks Ammo
I am trading real small lots, just to test this in real time. Positions aren't down much, but they always drop right after I buy them. I just have to be patient and see where they go, up like they are suppose to or out the bottom. (two of the five I'm in are up and I expect the other three will go up on good market days.)
bought a couple on pullbacks like yayt suggested.
Why are you not interested in shorting?
I hope my advice proves profitable for you
Quote from yayt:
Why are you not interested in shorting?
I hope my advice proves profitable for you
Quote from flyinglead:
I bought, so thats almost a guarantee its going down.
Just for $hits and giggles, one of these days I'm gonna short all my buy signals and visa versa. Ought to be good for a quick buck or two.
Just wanted to stop by and say hi. Been going through hell lately. Lost our beach house to hurricane Ike. Was without power at my houston house for 10 days. Not doing any trading right now. Taking care of my business which is falling apart with this economy, but should be picking up real soon with the recovery from hurricane ike.
Trade well.
Yes you will do well if you can identify range bouncing and trending correctly. P&F is about trend following, and typical win rate for such systems is about 30-40%.
Quote from flyinglead:
HolyGrail
very sorry to hear of your present bad luck, hope things get better soon for you. thanks for starting this thread I've been making a little money with double bottom/top trades you mentioned. I find in this tough market it keeps me from jumping in too early, which is another way of saying " discipline"
made a scan for dble bottoms am now watching :ANN,AVT,DRI,DRBN,EXM,IVN.to,JLL,M,MOT,TDC,UFS,WRC,
LLY
Short trade I almost took couple nights ago. Was a good signal, but news about FDA decision due this week resulting in a predicted 10% gain or loss scared me away. Been going up ever since.
Any opinions ?
Yeah, when it comes to events like that I'm inclined to stay away. Maybe with earnings I'd stay in unless it was a more explosive stock (like say, RIMM, which I think reports earnings today).
I think you made the right call.
I just checked Coleman Cable and saw that it's down on a huge up day like today ... hmm.
Honestly I try to stay away from such low volume stocks just cause it can either do nothing or move explosively in one way or another on good news, but I'm not sure that's the kind of volatility I want.
HolyGrail, sorry to hear, hope things get better soon!
Quote from yayt:
I just checked Coleman Cable and saw that it's down on a huge up day like today ... hmm.
Honestly I try to stay away from such low volume stocks just cause it can either do nothing or move explosively in one way or another on good news, but I'm not sure that's the kind of volatility I want.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Just wanted to stop by and say hi. Been going through hell lately. Lost our beach house to hurricane Ike. Was without power at my houston house for 10 days. Not doing any trading right now. Taking care of my business which is falling apart with this economy, but should be picking up real soon with the recovery from hurricane ike.
Trade well.
Quote from flyinglead:
Of my two low volume stocks, LSR went up pretty good today, so it more than cancelled CCIX out. but you are probably right, in the long run. Some stocks just seem to go against the market.
What is your breakoff point on volume Yayt? 1M?
I may be wrong (may heck, I usually am) but I got a feeling with the bailout deal off again, tomorrow may be a wild ride.
Did everybody give up? this thread sure went dead.
couple things I've noticed about p&f. doesn't matter how good the signal is, how it is doing against its sector or one of the indexes, a bear market is still a bear market. I'm sure this ties in to bulllish percentage altho I am still struggling with the bullish percentage. Probably cause I haven't studied it thoroughly.
Spent the weekend figuring out a good signal to use for shorting, only to have the market go down so fast this morning I only got one filled. Course it was the slowest of the three going down.
One of the problems I'm having with P&F, is waiting for the signal to materialize on a stock I'm watching , only to have it go past my targeted signal by two or three boxes. I'm not computer literate enough to set up a trade with "sell short if it goes below XX". Maybe I need to get with TOS and figure out how that works, cause I'm missing some trades and if I was doing it for more than testing right now I'd be pretty upset I didn't get filled today.
Even tho my signals proved right, selling a bullish catapult would have been right today so it was all moot.
Quote from HolyGrail:
I have no clue what one can reasonably expect. It depends on your timeframe, your signals, your targets, and your patience. This is a trend following system. When the market is trending you will make good money, when it's not you won't. It isn't different than any other type of trend following system.
I mentioned previously that this is a work-in-progress for me. What the system has done for me is kept my on the right side of the market at all times. Knowing when to be long or short is half the battle. Knowing what stocks to stay away from is another important step.
I'm sure there are some people who have already tried this and have not been able to make money from this system yet. I'm sure there are others that have done well. The more charts you see, and study every day the better you will get at reading price action. What one pattern does in a downtrend may not yield the same results in an uptrend. Only screen time will give you the answers you are looking for.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...t=mt,PLTADANCBO
Possible long candidate (MT, steel)
an interesting (depressive for investors) chart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...=anr,PLTADANCBO
104 seems to have been a very obvious top ... 3rd time around I imagine some of us would've gotten short?
I think a good screen for the future may be stocks that have hit a certain top or bottom 2 or 3 times, but spread out over time. May give some advantageous sell/buy points at the resistance/support.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...=ADS,PLTADANCBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
Keep a lookout for a triangle breakout
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...=npk,PLTADANCBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
Short opportunity for NPK?
Quote from yayt:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...=ADS,PLTADANCBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
Keep a lookout for a triangle breakout
Quote from yayt:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...t=mt,PLTADANCBO
Possible long candidate (MT, steel)
Quote from yayt:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...=npk,PLTADANCBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
Short opportunity for NPK?
Well, it wasn't really a good call, the market as a whole went down, if that went down, say, 20%, then I'd take credit
Regardless, you're right, this is not a time to go long unless everything is lining up (or want to DCA some investments which I'm looking into doing)
Quote from yayt:
Well, it wasn't really a good call, the market as a whole went down, if that went down, say, 20%, then I'd take credit
Interesting methodology guys. Have you tried integrating volume into your analysis?
i really like the simplicity of this style, i feel that it helps me make decisions in a fashion that would make occam proud. with candles i always seemed be able to make an excuse to buy or sell. point and figure helps me build patience into my system.
here is a few trades that i took over the last week. they all turned out well, although i have the feeling i could have chosen anything and it would have worked out more or less the same. focusing on one or two patterns that work for me, and trading exclusivly those patterns as the market gives them to me has done wonders and really helped me stop overtrading.
ok, how do you put more than one file per post?
Quote from nhaupt:
ok, how do you put more than one file per post?
and this
(but you have to wait 60 seconds to post the second file)
thanks flying lead.
here is the charts, as you can see i freaked today and closed all the positions without a clear reason. just got the feeling the market was going to rebound tommorow.
ipg.
ctb.
i know i should wait for some kindof reversal to exit the position, but it seems that would give back the majority of profits, any other methods out there?
Quote from nhaupt:
thanks flying lead.
here is the charts, as you can see i freaked today and closed all the positions without a clear reason. just got the feeling the market was going to rebound tommorow.
You can always get back in on a pullback if you think its still going to go down more.
Only two stocks I'm in right now
Short PHG @27.25
Long CLX @62.84
probalby should have taken a small profit on CLX when I had the chance, but I think it may come back. if not I'll sell when it gives a reversal signal.
untd trade taken at 9.00
s/l set at 10.5
i really like the size of the consolidation ahead of the breakdown. although there seems to be resistance close by from two years back. ill keep this one on a short leash with the falling vix.
how many shares are you trading Nhaupt?
shorted the following today.
APH @ 33.00
MEOH @ 16.25
NFG @ 34.92
PWR @ 18.51
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...=APH,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20][J152821826,Y]&listNum=31
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...MEOH,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20][J152821827,Y]&listNum=31
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...=NFG,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20][J152821828,Y]&listNum=31
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...=PWR,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20][J152821829,Y]&listNum=31
It's unfortunate that you bought these right before what may be a strong day, lol
I like NFG - it has a long way to go, I'd consider scaling out/placing tighter stops around 28
Yea I had a feeling early this morning that they might go the wrong way today.
Turned on Cramer last night and he was just getting done recommending buying PWR. I didn't know wether to get out or double up on it. but he was right for the short term, it really went up this morning.
He also recommended KMP, another one I shorted but got out of a couple days ago for a good profit.. It really went up also. Will be interesting to see if they continue up or go back down.
Still having trouble knowing when to take profits. did good on KMP, but left a lot on the table with OKE and NXY.
Really screwed up on TMO. Tried to short it at 46.05 limit when it was at 45.95 instead of shorting it at market. Watched it drop $2 in an hour. and I never caught up with it. Maybe I can sell it on a pullback tomorrow.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...=TMO,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
PHG hit my target of 22 so I closed that trade.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...0phg,PLTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
Quote from flyinglead:
shorted the following today.
APH @ 33.00
MEOH @ 16.25
NFG @ 34.92
PWR @ 18.51
Does anyone else care to show some of their trades using pnf? And why the took them?
My biggest problem is getting out of a bad trade. I'm taking too big of a loss before I get out.
Enclosed are my other trades
MINI bought 24.75 sold 18.01
TSCO 44.15 37.24
CCIX 13.09 9.10
CLX 62.84 54.00
LSR 34.82 35.32
NXY short 22.70 closed 20.20
BLL 41.52 38.50
OKE 33.98 29.34
KMP 52.86 42.86
PHG 27.25 21.99
Long trades were all a week to two in duration and short trades were a couple days in duration.
All the shorts were taken after they fell below the support line. I left a lot on the table on the first three I took (NXY, BLL and OKE)
closed out untd for 1.60 per share
flying led im still learning, so i trade very few shares. im still unhappy with my exits, based on emotion more than anything else, even if they were right in the short term in this instance.
Quote from nhaupt:
flying led im still learning, so i trade very few shares. im still unhappy with my exits, based on emotion more than anything else, even if they were right in the short term in this instance.
Quote from yayt:
I like NFG - it has a long way to go, I'd consider scaling out/placing tighter stops around 28
what is a good program for intraday PF charts? Thanks.
Quote from flyinglead:
Nice call Yayt. I know you were using Close only and I use Hi/Low, but they both showed about the same thing
Quote from mike007:
what is a good program for intraday PF charts? Thanks.
Quote from yayt:
I currently use Quotetracker (free).
I evaluated Updata Technical Analyst (VERY cheap considering its' quality!) - it is an amazing program that I will upgrade to in a little while.
Dentist007 uses this program as well.
does anybody have a name for this chart pattern.?
a 1 box reversal hilo data.0.5% box size
i am thinking of: fishing line with a hook
The Screaming Buy?
- or, alternatively -
The Screaming Sell?
- or, alternatively -
The Screaming in general?
Here's an article on P&F Box Sizing.
Enjoy
***
Part I
I’m going to paste a document that is in line with what I’m looking for, is that people who explain the procedure for use and how to build graphics to guide us.
Determining the Box Size on P&F Charts Determining the Box Size on P & F Charts
By Colin Nicholson
Point and figure charting originated on Wall Street. US prices per share are, by custom, much higher than in Australia. The most common box size for point and figure charts was one dollar, which was known in that market as one ‘point’. This is the most likely origin of the ‘point’ in ‘point and figure’ — the charts were scaled as one dollar per box. There are other customary differences on Wall Street, such as quoting prices in eighths, quarters and halves that make it difficult at times to apply their text books to our markets, which are quoted in decimal units of currency.
While most of the point and figure charts drawn on Wall Street were scaled at one dollar per box, both low priced stocks and high priced stocks required an adjustment of the box size. Extension of the technique to futures markets also required different box sizes, both because of the different prices of the contracts, and because of the character of the trading and the generally shorter-term emphasis in that trading.
Point and figure charting has a large element of filtering of the price action as recorded on the charts. This allows enormous flexibility in the method, allowing use for very long-term studies and also for intra-day trading. The primary method of condensing a point and figure chart is by changing the box size.
The choice of box size will depend upon the price range over which the instrument trades and also on the time frame in which the analyst wishes to use the chart. It is very common for a point and figure chartist to have more than one chart of a given instrument. For example, take BHP, which is the largest stock on the Australian market. The analyst might have a 50 cent box size chart for long-term studies, a 20 or 25 cent box size chart for medium term studies and a 10 cent box size chart for timing entry and exit to the market. This is somewhat akin to using monthly, weekly and daily or weekly, daily and hourly bar charts.
However, while these divisions of time work quite well for most markets in bar charts, a similar clear rule does not exist for point and figure charts. This is a source of difficulty for beginners, who are looking for rules to follow. The reality is that different instruments and markets trade with a different character, and the box size must be adjusted to suit. There is no getting away from this element of art or judgement in the method.
Indeed, its existence is a strength of the method, when one considers the purpose of the charts. The purpose is to judge what is happening to the balance of supply and demand in the market. The flexibility to change box size will often allow the skilled analyst to better identify what is happening.
However, it is possible to give some starting point guidelines for box size, from which the analyst must experiment. The guideline is to take the range over which prices have varied historically, or over which you expect them to vary, and determine a mid point price for this range. Then use a box size that is about two percent of the mid point price.
When starting a chart for a new instrument, start off with a box size that is two percent of the initial price. As you would expect, this guideline works best when prices are near the mid point. When prices move towards the historical extremes, larger or smaller box sizes will be needed to study recent price action effectively.
__________________
...
Part II
There is another dimension to the choice of box size. This hinges on the consideration that it was much easier to maintain longer-term hand drawn charts directly from the basic chart, rather than from the original data. For this reason, we try to keep the box sizes such that each larger box is twice the smaller one. This was easy on Wall Street, where the smallest quotes were in eighths, so the chart sizes were eighths, quarters, halves, dollars and so on. However, in Australia, the lowest share price is one tenth of a cent. This drives the starting point, and the sequence of box sizes would be 0.1c, 0.2c, 0.4c, 0.8c, 1.6c, 3.2c and so on, if it were not for the need to take another consideration into account.
This is a phenomenon of support and resistance levels — that people tend to think and bid/offer prices in round numbers — the so-called ‘psychologically important’ numbers that occur in all markets. Since the primary reason behind filtering the prices in the point and figure method is to detect when the price breaks beyond support and resistance levels, it is highly desirable to use round numbers in choosing box sizes.
Thus, the convention is to use the sequence 0.1c, 0.2c, 0.5c, 1c, 2c, 5c, 10c, 20c, (sometimes 25c), 50c, $1.00, $2.00, $5.00 and so on. It is therefore necessary to have access to the original data when moving from a 0.2c to a 0.5c, or 2c to 5c, or 20c to 50c (and so on) box size.
Fortunately, with use of a computer to draw the charts for us, this is less of a problem than it was a decade ago.
Putting it all together, we can express the guidelines in the following table:
Midpoint of Price Range: 5 10 25 50 100 250 500 1000
Box size: 0.1 0.2 0.5 1 2 5 10 20
The same considerations will drive choice of box size in any market, by starting with the minimum bid and moving up in the sequence as shown above. For example, in the interest rate or currency markets, substitute basis points or decimals of a currency unit for the basic one tenth of a cent above and start with the two percent rule.
The discussion of box size has been lengthy, but, as this is the most difficult aspect of the method for beginners, it needs a solid explanation.
***
Warning: MetaStock, SuperCharts and some other charting software do not draw the basic one box reversal point and figure chart correctly. This seems to be because the US market has swung over almost entirely to small box sizes with condensed charts using the three box reversal method. They have overlooked that the one box reversal chart is drawn such that there is always a minimum of two boxes plotted in any one column. The need for this is quite strongly based in the classic books by De Villiers, Wyckoff, Gartley and Wheelan. Indeed, CompuTrac and Telerate charting software in the US use the correct method, as does Insight Trader in Australia.
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Quote from dentist007:
does anybody have a name for this chart pattern.?
a 1 box reversal hilo data.0.5% box size
i am thinking of: fishing line with a hook
mrcy trade placed on double bottom breakdown
beauty of this system : IT would have kept you out september and october and it will probably not give you a longer term signal to get back (enless you are playing the short etfs) till this shithole economy cools down or stabilizes.
thanks!
perfect trade (What could have been)
I set a target to sell tmo short when it reached
46 on the double bottom breakout. When it got below 46, instead of selling it at market, I thought I'd get cute and sell it a few cents higher since it was bouncing around at the time. never got it bought.
Once it started down, it went right to the target of 35 (using YAYT's method of targeting)
unfortunately, I never got in at 46 (or so I thought)
I came home this morning and checked my account to find out I never cancelled my order and it triggered Monday
So now I'm in at 46, and its at 42.33
Set a stop and 45 and a target at 38.
so I learned two good lessons this week due to my stupidity and it didn't cost me a bunch of money this time.
ROFL
that's a good story
out at 45. should be a good triangle forming tho.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=tmo,P
Quote from dentist007:
does anybody have a name for this chart pattern.?
a 1 box reversal hilo data.0.5% box size
i am thinking of: fishing line with a hook
Automating this is taking quite a while ... over the past 3 days of paper trading through IB (100 share lots), 1 day of -$200, and 2 days of +$200 each, averaging about 10 trades per day
not enough trades per day, but it definitely looks to have a lot of potential
+$900 over 33 trades yesterday, a little over half of which was from 2PM onwards,so probably best to ignore those trades, haha, can't count on a 10% rally occurring too often
I remember another user was talking about automating PnF, have you had any success thus far?
Quote from flyinglead:
good call, but did you wait for the breakout and it already went to the bottom before you could short??
yayt, I'm not seeing where NPK is in a trading range on the long term P&F scale. From what it looks like it just broke out of a quad top and there was a buy at 60. Here's the chart I'm looking at:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=npk,P
Also, what is your targeting method that you are using to set price targets?
Quote from hdawg87:
yayt, I'm not seeing where NPK is in a trading range on the long term P&F scale. From what it looks like it just broke out of a quad top and there was a buy at 60. Here's the chart I'm looking at:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=npk,P
Also, what is your targeting method that you are using to set price targets?
to anybody using the prorealtime p/f charts.these are free for eod.
us,uk,european stocks index and futures.also commods and interest rates etc
the hilo charts,especially the 3 box reversal charts are correctly calculated.i have compared them to updata
however,there is a problem that can be corrected easily by the user.on some charts when loaded the x and the o are disproprtionate.ie the o are not round and the x are can be elongated.to get properly proportioned charts ,put the mouse on the scale and move it up or down.focus mainly on the o,once it gets round then fix it.then you can draw the 45 deg trendlines.to move the chart around then put mouse on the chart and move it to where you want to put it.
the software cannot handle the scaling on the p/f properly,to correctly proportion the x and o size
enclosed is the daily chart of emini s &p.the x and o were generated by the software.as you can see the x and o are not proprtioned properly
.the second chart is where i have put the mouse on the scale and reproportioned
hope this helps someone.maybe if we all email prorealtime,they will correct this bug
it turns out i am unable to save the newly proportioned chart.the software wont allow this.maybe we can get this resolved also
a sensible solution to this problem,which i think prorealtime can do easily is to have a facility to reduce/ increase the sizes of the x and o.once the these have been reproportioned.this will enable the whole chart to be put on the screen
do not use the 1 box rversals.these are not calculated according to the wyckoff/one step back method.also only use close or high-low range on the box configurations.the rest are not appropriate in p/f
a few small points to take note of.
great FREE charts.once you know how to handle them
to reproportion the x and o.go to the scale/left click and move either up or down depending which looks right
different PNF chart
I am still studying these PNF chart
But when I try to study . for example DJIA/$INDU
i got different chart , all is under :
BOX : 1
Reversal : 3
but from Stocksharts AMibroker, or Prorealtime i got 3 different chart..
Is it because PNF is for personal or is it the starting point is different.. ?
need comment..
thx
it is all to do with the method ofcalculation of the boxes.the method should be from the hilo or close of the previous box and not the close/ rnd of day
check also that you are inputting point size and not percentage
This thread hasn't had much action as of late
Anybody have chart examples?
Here is what I was looking at trading Diamonds today, perfect example of how P&F makes identifying support and resistance easy (and profitable).
great stuff
KEEP THOSE PROFITS COMING IN
MANY MORE
keep up the good work
Hey, still new to the P&F charting method, but it makes a lot of sense to me. Spent the last couple of days reading this post and and a few other places as well.
What do you think of shorting KO if it breaks $42ish, from a P&F standpoint? Good trade/bad trade?
Looks like it would be a quadruple bottom sell signal if it were to break, am I correct in the analysis?
Just trying to gain more insight. Thanks.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...t=ko,PHTADANCBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G
Yeah, I think that would be a very bearish sign, it seems like very strong support. You can see that it has been bouncing up less and less, there's been less buying pressure
Hey guys, some more charts from early action today
Support levels quite clear, but it looks like a top may be forming and we might be heading down
I was looking and saw some additional weakness in CPB. It looks like if it continues to do go down past 30 it would be a good short, double bottom sell signal.
But what I would like to know is, the risk profile for this trade. I feel that if it would break this level it would head further down, but not sure if the risk/reward ratio is appropriate.
I feel the market had an early break down today but not anything major, so we could get a rally putting this stock at a loss if shorted now. Looking to try to learn more about favorable/unfavorable trades.
Time frame 1 box. 3 box reversal.
happy thanks giving to all.we dont celebrate it here in the u.k.
an update for the s&p 500.the chart is 20 points box size.3 box reversal.daily data.hilo data input
i have included some vertical counts.all the downside counts have been achieved except the last one.the last column is moving upwards and i have put on a vertical count.this has not been fixed as yet.ie there has not been a retracement column.it will not get activated until there is a break above 920.you can see the target so far only takes us to the top of this range at 1060.so we watch this last column to find out where it retarces so we can get an idea of how far this rally will go.once we get an activated upward count then the 520 count gets taken out
dow.
the upide vertical count put in as a guide.no activation as yet
downside counts clustering in the 6750-6900 region
if it breaks above 9000 and retraces this count will be active
codetroll
some vertical counts on campbell/cpb
the last signal was a double-bottom.the main uptrend line has not been broken.no real breakout pattern as yet
does this help.?
Dentist, I think your chart is not up to date. CPB last closed at 31.88 according to Google Finance.
I think tomorrow would be a good day to get short, Codetroll - it broke down and retraced to a lower high, looks like a good time to enter (tight stop though).
yayt
you are right.here is the updated chart with vertical counts.i dont trade us stocks.
dow.intraday data
hourly data.50 points/box size.3 box reversal.the vertical count from the latest low is giving a target of 9400.it has just broken out of its latest consolidation
Quote from dentist007:
dow.intraday data
hourly data.50 points/box size.3 box reversal.the vertical count from the latest low is giving a target of 9400.it has just broken out of its latest consolidation
some targets generated from 1 minute data.25 ma of the columns
A dentist from the UK, eh?
You wouldn't happen to be Lemming of the BDA would you?
Quote from codetroll:
Thanks Dentist for the CPB chart, I didn't get into the move because I felt there was upside in the indexe(s).
I agree with you on your 9400 call, a lot of people are expecting a rally, I was just curious what vertical count are you using to make the projection? (50 * X? * 3) + 8600(?)
If 9,400 is our "target" wouldn't it be a good time to start looking at creating short positions with the assumption that the index is still range bound?
stevegee58
i drill teeth part time only now.i should really give it up,i make alot more from p/f charts than i ever did from dentistry.however,with daytrading you dont get to meet too many people.
codetroll
i forgot to add.
dont look for any short positions until you have confirmation that the trend has reversed.if in doubt,use what is on holygrails synopsis for picking out reversals.so on the hourly 50 point dow,we are in an uptrend.the market numbers/read correctly will give you confirmation of any reversal
dentist007,
Do you have any thread you can point to that summarizes your current trading via P&F? If not, would you point me to any other threads or URLS or books?
Regards,
John
Hey Dentist or anyone else,
I was looking at the P&F charts and I noticed the downward movement today.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$INDU,P
Would you say that it's a minor pullback, not sure the "O" columns did a 50% retracement.
To me, it looks like it didn't have a 50% retracement, the move might not be over, but if it were to begin another X column, wouldn't that be considered a sign of strength, that it didn't reach 50% yet?
-troll
MSFT
Just felt like posting something I saw today.
MSFT - sell signal? perhaps. coincides with 3 different box sizes.
.1, .25, and .5. ~ 2 weeks worth of data, intraday.
Didn't trade it, why? Felt the market was low and might get a rally back up, making this a false breakout.
Re: MSFT
Quote from codetroll:
Just felt like posting something I saw today.
MSFT - sell signal? perhaps. coincides with 3 different box sizes.
.1, .25, and .5. ~ 2 weeks worth of data, intraday.
Didn't trade it, why? Felt the market was low and might get a rally back up, making this a false breakout.
I'd look to get short msft if it reached the previous 2 tops and then began reversing down again
keep posting, I'll try to post some charts soon myself
good job on the trade though
BA short
Possible double bottom sell signal for BA, if it reached 40.00 flat. Should be interesting.
It almost hit it but formed a double bottom on the candlestick chart and shot backup, any additional weakness though and I could see it retracing to prior resistance levels before another run up.
Looks good from a risk-reward standpoint though.
Edit: .25 box size, 3 box reversal.
http://img143.imageshack.us/my.php?image=bashortpi8.jpg
-troll
I've been looking at intraday PnF charts myself, on YM and ES using QuoteTracker.
One thing that jumps right out at you is the suggestion of sensible stop placement. PnF charts are really cool.
You could either set a stop at 43.25 which is the top of the double bottom pattern, or 42.00 which is just a 3 box reversal.
Yeah, I honestly did not get anywhere trading before I started researching late last year.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...3!!!2!20]&pnf=y
What do you guys think of getting long if it hits 18 again? That was the low from the end of the dot com bubble
Quote from yayt:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...3!!!2!20]&pnf=y
What do you guys think of getting long if it hits 18 again? That was the low from the end of the dot com bubble
merry christmas to all the contributors to this thread and to all the readers
i know it will be a very profitable 2009 for all.
just reading and learning fom this thread will give you the edge
A Mery Christmas to you and all the other contributors on here.
a very prosperous new year to all readers of this thread.may the volatility continue
i just thought i would put forward an idea mooted by marc rivalland.the highly respected point and figure chartist.his argument is that stocks are due a rally.however,the instigator will be whether investors have the apettite to go back in to more riskier stocks.so he is watching the nas 100 and its relative strength to the dow.the nas being the one to watch
i have put on a relative strength chart of the nas 100 to the dow.this is a normalised rel stregth chart where it plots the relative performance as a percentage.box size is 0.5%,3 box reversal.you can see that the nas 100 got sold off more than the dow in the big down move after the lehman bankruptcy.there was a horizontal count of 94.5.so it got oversold against the dow,which you would expect
now the last column is moving upwards and could be bullish soon.ie a double-top above 95 area.so according to rivalland,january could decide the outcome.before or after the obama inauguration
the above post should not be confused with the possible rally we might get in the next few days.this rally,if it happens will be on thin volume.the above is looking towards a more sutainable rally
Hello,
Anybody can help me with some info where I can get to draw p&f charts? I have been trying xocharts and archeranalysis but it is not working for me as I have metatrader free data only,
Thank you!
Thank you HG
have learned a lot about PnF trading
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"There is a tide in the affairs of men, which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune..."
- Shakespeare (Julius Caesar)
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agreed
thanks hg
happy new year to you and youre family
a variation of holygrail"s shakeout chart formation.marc rivalland the p/f chartist gives up to 3 box tolerance when there is a false signal in a trend
posting a chart of the eurjpy cross.
according to robin griffiths a market strategist.markets will look at this fx cross.currently it is at a low/euro
all to do with the carry trade
so he says
I have been reading this journal from the beginning, and it's great, but the one thing I have not felt confident about at any point is trendlines.
In many of the posted charts, I see numerous places where a trendline should be drawn according to HolyGrail's description of how to draw a trendline, but a trendline is not drawn.
Example: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...&postid=1849155
Around the 11.00 price level, near the center of the chart where the 8,9 is, it looks like there should be a trendline, but no trendline was drawn.
There are many other charts like this that have been posted. I basically just want to feel confident when drawing a trendline on PnF charts, but I feel like I'm missing something.
Is it really as simple as an X going higher than the previous X, and an O going lower than the previous O? In the posted charts, did people just leave off trendlines that were unimportant to the point they were making, or did they not draw the trendlines because a trendline shouldn't have been drawn?
If you follow this trendline algorithm you’ll do just fine. I didn’t invent it but it’s in my own words. Master this, and then you can add the secondary types of trendlines.
1. Let's call the Bullish Support Line the BLSL, and the Bearish Resistance Line the BRRL.
2. Begin by always going to the hard left edge of your data (where the chart begins). What is the first signal that forms? If it's a buy signal (double top) then we are going to go to the bottom of the lowest column of O's to the left of that signal, and start a BLSL. If the first signal is a sell (double bottom), then go to the top of the highest column of X's to the left of that signal, and start a BRRL.
3. From that point on (either the first BLSL or BRRL) there will always be a trend line in place. The trend will either be positive (trading above the BLSL) or negative (trading below the BRRL).
4. When a BLSL ends, a BRRL begins. When a BRRL ends, a BLSL begins.
5. A BLSL can only end when a column of O’s penetrates it, and it's on a sell signal. Penetration means the column of O's not only landed on the BLSL, but went at least one or more boxes below it.
6. A BRRL can only end when a column of X’s penetrates it, and it's on a buy signal. Penetration means the column of X's not only landed on the BRRL, but went at least one or more boxes above it.
7. If a BLSL is the active line, and a column of O's come down and stops directly on the BLSL, and then reverses back up, then drop the BLSL down one box so it's directly under this most recent column of O's, and that is where it will continue from.
8. If a BRRL is the active line, and a column of X's rises up and stops directly on the BRRL, and then reverses back down, then raise the BRRL up one box so it's directly over this most recent column of X's and that is where it will continue from.
Quote from rtr1129:
I have been reading this journal from the beginning, and it's great, but the one thing I have not felt confident about at any point is trendlines.
In many of the posted charts, I see numerous places where a trendline should be drawn according to HolyGrail's description of how to draw a trendline, but a trendline is not drawn.
Example: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...&postid=1849155
Around the 11.00 price level, near the center of the chart where the 8,9 is, it looks like there should be a trendline, but no trendline was drawn.
There are many other charts like this that have been posted. I basically just want to feel confident when drawing a trendline on PnF charts, but I feel like I'm missing something.
Is it really as simple as an X going higher than the previous X, and an O going lower than the previous O? In the posted charts, did people just leave off trendlines that were unimportant to the point they were making, or did they not draw the trendlines because a trendline shouldn't have been drawn?
the difference between the holygrail and cwu method of a trendline breach
cwu.is looking for a double-top in a downtrend at or near/within 1 box of the downtrend line
vice versa for a breach of of an uptrend line
whereas holygrail
in ann uptrend he looks for the retrace below the trendline to see if it stays below
vice versa etc etc
please correct me if you think my interpretation is wrong
nas 100 setting up for a double-top after a shakeout.if this fails ,then a nice breakdown
euro going to get a hammered
just broken the 8850 support
our english pound is certainly making a recovery.an unactivated vertical count of 1.7200
i might even be able to afford a vacation this year...!!
nas 100 has definitely been outperforming the dow recently
cahrt is nas 100 relative to the dow.since jan 07.been outperforming by a few percentage points recently
dow ,s&p500 been sluggish recently
please let me know if you disagree
Okay, I gave it a try. See attached chart. I included the double top/bottoms and connected them to the trendlines. Let me know if that's correct, incorrect, or just overkill
Quote from CWU:
If you follow this trendline algorithm you’ll do just fine. I didn’t invent it but it’s in my own words. Master this, and then you can add the secondary types of trendlines.
1. Let's call the Bullish Support Line the BLSL, and the Bearish Resistance Line the BRRL.
2. Begin by always going to the hard left edge of your data (where the chart begins). What is the first signal that forms? If it's a buy signal (double top) then we are going to go to the bottom of the lowest column of O's to the left of that signal, and start a BLSL. If the first signal is a sell (double bottom), then go to the top of the highest column of X's to the left of that signal, and start a BRRL.
3. From that point on (either the first BLSL or BRRL) there will always be a trend line in place. The trend will either be positive (trading above the BLSL) or negative (trading below the BRRL).
4. When a BLSL ends, a BRRL begins. When a BRRL ends, a BLSL begins.
5. A BLSL can only end when a column of O’s penetrates it, and it's on a sell signal. Penetration means the column of O's not only landed on the BLSL, but went at least one or more boxes below it.
6. A BRRL can only end when a column of X’s penetrates it, and it's on a buy signal. Penetration means the column of X's not only landed on the BRRL, but went at least one or more boxes above it.
7. If a BLSL is the active line, and a column of O's come down and stops directly on the BLSL, and then reverses back up, then drop the BLSL down one box so it's directly under this most recent column of O's, and that is where it will continue from.
8. If a BRRL is the active line, and a column of X's rises up and stops directly on the BRRL, and then reverses back down, then raise the BRRL up one box so it's directly over this most recent column of X's and that is where it will continue from.
Quote from rtr1129:
Okay, I gave it a try. See attached chart. I included the double top/bottoms and connected them to the trendlines. Let me know if that's correct, incorrect, or just overkill
Quote from rtr1129:
Okay, I gave it a try. See attached chart. I included the double top/bottoms and connected them to the trendlines. Let me know if that's correct, incorrect, or just overkill
I believe it's AMD, from about 1 year ago. It was a chart that HolyGrail posted toward the beginning of this journal. But any example you are willing to provide would be much appreciated.
Quote from CWU:
What is the symbol of the stock you are charting? I'll post a correct chart with just the BLSL and BRRL.
Quote from rtr1129:
I believe it's AMD, from about 1 year ago. It was a chart that HolyGrail posted toward the beginning of this journal. But any example you are willing to provide would be much appreciated.
Same chart but I've added a few secondary TL's like the Bullish Resistance Lines and Bearish Support Lines. The strongest ones are always the first or second ones of the bottom or a top. They do capture channels very well.
Okay, I think I'm getting it now (or getting closer). Here's a chart of AMZN.
Quote from CWU:
Okay, here's AMD with just the BLSL's and BRRL's. You can see that one of them is always in place.
A P&F chart is either bullish (on a buy signal) or bearish (on a sell signal) and the trend is either positive (trading above the BLSL) or negative (trading below the BRRL).
Now you pick a chart and put them in place.
Quote from rtr1129:
Okay, I think I'm getting it now (or getting closer). Here's a chart of AMZN.
Here's one for AES. I wasn't sure about the green lines. Should they not be drawn because they are not the primary trend? Would it be accurate to say that you want the minimum number of trend lines so that there is at least one trendline covering every column?
I know I'm really late to this thread but I have to say that I am blown away. I started watching PNF charts recently (read all 34 pages of this thread in that time!) and it's like this set of glasses that filter out everything you don't need. It has made my trading experience incredibly simple and enjoyable! I'm 100% HOOKED!
I currently trade mini-DOW futures and have been experimenting with different charts but am getting comfortable with a 2x2, 3x3, 4x3 and a 10x3 all open at the same time, looking for setups and signals on all of them as the day plays out. Not sure why they all work together but taking those along with market internals like TICK or even just a list of the DOW components +/- is all I need.
The entries in trending days are super easy and I tend to hit targets quickly; I think I'd have incredible success if I only traded those days. The choppy days are (as told 100's of times here) difficult but I will say this... It's rare that on a breakout or other setup the trade will go against me in the short-term (3-10 minutes), but if the momentum doesn't carry on QUICKLY after the entry signal you're probably in trouble.
So, what I'm doing on these days is watching the 3x3 and 4x3 for some sort of sync and pulling the trigger. Then, I watch 2x2 religiously for signs of slowing or reversal and base exits off of that chart. They can be super fast trades but I'm finding that I might get 10-12 points in my direction and then 2x2 says GET OUT and I exit with say 8-10 points profit and watch the price go back to my entry and beyond. If I were more confident, I would immediately reverse my position but baby steps here... Only a few trades have actually materialized after the slight correction/drawdown back in my direction and got to the original profit target but I'm willing to pull small profits quickly before it gets back to ground zero when the trade doesn't carry the momentum I was hoping for...even if it means occasionally watching the profits add up after I exit. There's just too much risk on the choppy days to play it "normal" and for me to feel comfortable playing the ebbs and flows of the market.
I prefer trading on the trending days with longer time in trade and basing entry/exit off longer-term charts but I'm finding that a sort of "scalp" strategy using short-term boxes can be a nice alternative on the choppy days!
It's a never-ending process and I'm really stoked to be a part of it and see how I can trade better with PnF!!
Anyway, I'll keep checking this thread. Keep up the great posts everyone!!!
bmills
Great threat,thanks HG
Quote from bmills313:
I know I'm really late to this thread but I have to say that I am blown away. I started watching PNF charts recently (read all 34 pages of this thread in that time!) and it's like this set of glasses that filter out everything you don't need. It has made my trading experience incredibly simple and enjoyable! I'm 100% HOOKED!
I currently trade mini-DOW futures and have been experimenting with different charts but am getting comfortable with a 2x2, 3x3, 4x3 and a 10x3 all open at the same time, looking for setups and signals on all of them as the day plays out. Not sure why they all work together but taking those along with market internals like TICK or even just a list of the DOW components +/- is all I need.
The entries in trending days are super easy and I tend to hit targets quickly; I think I'd have incredible success if I only traded those days. The choppy days are (as told 100's of times here) difficult but I will say this... It's rare that on a breakout or other setup the trade will go against me in the short-term (3-10 minutes), but if the momentum doesn't carry on QUICKLY after the entry signal you're probably in trouble.
So, what I'm doing on these days is watching the 3x3 and 4x3 for some sort of sync and pulling the trigger. Then, I watch 2x2 religiously for signs of slowing or reversal and base exits off of that chart. They can be super fast trades but I'm finding that I might get 10-12 points in my direction and then 2x2 says GET OUT and I exit with say 8-10 points profit and watch the price go back to my entry and beyond. If I were more confident, I would immediately reverse my position but baby steps here... Only a few trades have actually materialized after the slight correction/drawdown back in my direction and got to the original profit target but I'm willing to pull small profits quickly before it gets back to ground zero when the trade doesn't carry the momentum I was hoping for...even if it means occasionally watching the profits add up after I exit. There's just too much risk on the choppy days to play it "normal" and for me to feel comfortable playing the ebbs and flows of the market.
I prefer trading on the trending days with longer time in trade and basing entry/exit off longer-term charts but I'm finding that a sort of "scalp" strategy using short-term boxes can be a nice alternative on the choppy days!
It's a never-ending process and I'm really stoked to be a part of it and see how I can trade better with PnF!!
Anyway, I'll keep checking this thread. Keep up the great posts everyone!!!
bmills
Quote from johnpinochet:
bmills,
What are you using for real-time charting of P&F?
Regards,
John
the latest chart for the s&p 500.eod data.box size is 5 points.hilo data.3 reversal.auto vertical counts
Long at 745, stop at 744?
update for the nas 100
eod data.10 point box size.3 reversal
hilo data
vertical counts also
russell 2000
eod data
box sizes and reversals are labelled on the charts
gold .spot price
eod data.box size is $5.3 box reversal
hilo data plot
dow industrials
eod
trannies...eod
eurodollar spot
eod data.looking like parity is looming
yayt...could be.it is a long downward column with no retrace.depends on the news coming out i would think
dax
not broken a major support as yet
in the uk...just announced,that northern rock bank which was nationalised a year ago is now offering mortgages to home buyers
nikkei
eod.
updated chart of the dow
p/f for fx
tasc article
s & P 500
no vertical count has been established as yet.a rising upthrust column that has not retraced as yet
same with the dow
an upside vertical count has been established with the dax
a vertical count also established with the ftse100
dollar getting stronger against the swiss franc
dollar getting weaker against the euro
euro/swiss.
swiss franc definitely under pressure.safer to put youre money under the bed than a swiss bank.?
no up vertical count established as yet with the russell 2000
no vertical count on the nas 100,as yet
usdjpy
Quote from dentist007:
no vertical count on the nas 100,as yet
update on gold
nikkei
seems to be lagging
they are not trading methods.just posting a few charts with a bit of chat added...
nothing more
sorry to offend you
Quote from superIvan:
I don't wanna sound mean to you, I am sure you are a good dentist
but your trading methods I wouldn't want if they were free
oh wait they are free
seriously this sucks, I would look for something more REAL
Hey Doc, I'm familiar with the more old-school format of P&F charts (e.g. those from stockcharts.com). Your format from Update Technical Analyst has some annotations I haven't seen before.
What are the pink vertical lines under/over some of the columns? Projections perhaps? Also, what are the pairs of numbers along the bottom of the chart?
pink vertical lines are the vertical count targets.updata has an algorithm for calculating and displaying vertical column counts
it gives you an idea of the trend that might happen.,with a target
the 07,08,09 at the bottom of the chart are the years.gives you an idea of the timeframe of the chart
i am posting these charts so that evrybody on this thread can look at them.i find the updata ones easier to interpret than the stockcharts ones.
Are the counts equivalent to the standard P&F "price objective"?
something that i have noticed is that the us indexes have not retraced..ie a downward column from the latest upthrust.i have got the same box setting for all.
the eauropean indexes/dax and ftse 100 have retraced and broken above the previous upthrust column.activating a vertical count,wheres the us indices have not done this
i am not sure what to make of this.that is why i posted the charts
anybody got any ideas.??
0.9% box size is medium term
two types of counts
1.horizontal..ie the width of a consolidation
2.vertical.the first move from a top or a bottom
its all explained on stockcharts and dorsey wright.
holygrail has put these on at the beginning of the thread
us dollar is strong against the canadian $
nas 100
we got an upside vertical cunt today of 1305.the top end of the latest consolidation.so no big numbers as yet
a slight mistake on the previous chart.the one posted is a 2 box reversal.the 3 box has no activated count as yet
here is the 3 box reversal chart
no count as yet
dow ..eod data
50 by 3 reversal hilo plot.if it prints 7500,then the upside count of 9050 becomes active
update on the nas 100
there is a base bulding.massive res area though
chart enclosed
base forming in the s500
So is that base likely to break up or down?
Quote from sandygray66:
So is that base likely to break up or down?
This chart looks like it does not include Thursday's and Friday's price data (at least).
Friday's close was 842.5, certainly beyond any base forming.
s&p 500 at a resistance.a high box size.10 points by 3 reversal
close data
when i posted the chart with a base formation.it was a short term support.it held after the news about the gm bankruptcy.we are certainly at resistance.needs to print a close above 850 for the last chart to become bullish
so just some thoughts
a longer term chart of the s&p500
20 point box size by 3 box reversal
close data
it seems that 900 and especially 1000 are the real big resistance areas.on this chart 850 and 870 areas dont even show up
notice last few rally 's resistance
yes.
this chart picks up those at 865 area
however,if you look at the higher box size that i puut on,then this area does not show up,only the 900 and 1000 really show.so,in my mind,these are really major res areas.it all depnds if we get a close above 1276,then the res on the 12 by 3 chart is broken.this is a crazy market and can easlily happen
Good site with S+R lines
All
Just started reading this thread, I have been using pnf charts for a while now and trying to get better. I found a good site that has handy S/L lines for several of the main indices, etc. Looks like we are currently between the main S/L lines of 805 and 898 on S&P 500.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...684038&cmd=show[s129091841]&disp=P
Possible SDS trade?
All
Just wondering if it may be a good time to go long SDS (2x inverse S&P) based on current pnf chart: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...=SDS,PLUADANRBO[PA!B20!B50][D][F1!3!1!!2!20]&pref=G
The chart shows that SDS now has a O in the 68-69 box, which looks like a support box. It can go as low as 67.01 before it fills in the next lower box (67-68). Closing price as of Fri 4/10 was 67.13, so it looks like it is very close to a good support level and stop loss point.
My trade would be: go long SDS now, down to as low as 67.01. Set stop at 66.99 because if it goes lower than this, looks like the next lower support it could go to is a O in the 65-66 box. Assuming you get in at 67.13 and then get stopped out at 66.99, this is a 0.2% loss (not too bad).
If stopped out I would then watch it when it reaches the 65-66 level and jump in at this level (somewhere in the 64.01 - 65.99 range).
Does anyone have any thoughts on this trade? Any ideas welcome, thx.
Good thread.
subscribed
sds. do you have any confirmation that it is reversing that last downtrend.?
if so.post the chart
dow..a high box size chart
200 points by 3 reversal .close data
the main res area is 9000.as shown/red line.this is 9% away for the today price
whereas in the s&p 500 it is 900.approx 5% away from today price
s500 needs to close above 876 for the previously posted 12 by 3 to be bullish.then its on to 900
in theory the s500 should get to the main res first
anybody got ideas.??
I am new to P&F charting, do any of you have educational resources other than this thread to understand it fully.
if you go to google and put in the p/f books in youre library.you can then read most of the stuff
nas 100 already at the major res area
a better veiw.we are 1 box away from major es on the nas100 ie i3-4%
so showing the same characteristics as the s500
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?$BPNYA,$BPCOMPQ,$BPOEX,$BPNDX,$BPSPX,$BPINDU,$BPDISC,$BPSTAP,$BPENER,$BPFINA|E this page shows the oex,dow and naz with upside room and the spx hitting resistance
Quote from dentist007:
sds. do you have any confirmation that it is reversing that last downtrend.?
if so.post the chart
it probably is a low risk trade,as you are at a major resistance point on the s&p 500.it will be even more reliable if you confirm it with a reversal pattern.
this is well presented in holygrail" s synopsis
you could use other confirming signals on a candle chart..such as oscillator divergence and or looking at dmi/wait for the range to get smaller ie the directional movement must be getting smaller.there should be a reasonably definite area of support/res that keeps the price in check
hope this helps
please do youre own analysis.this is my opinion only
agreed regarding going thru Holygrail's thread. I am on about page 30, so it will be slow going with >200 pages. Good idea about checking for oscillator divergence, will check for this.
what is the next move.?
s&p 500.
12 point box size.by 3 reversal
close data
v
are we at the bottom?
could be.might be difficult to break above $62 area.that seems to be keeping the price in check
eurodollar
thanks for the great charts as always dentist
nas 100 has broken resistance.will the res hold as support?
PnF question about box size
Anyone
Is it generally ok to change the box size to a smaller box size, in order to get a more fine tuned idea of entry, exit points? Or is it not worth it due to normal market noise or variation, so that the smaller box sizes may not be as accurate?
I think you can't go wrong by using a large box size to ascertain the trend and areas of s/r, and using a small box size to look for a good entry point and logical stop. go for it
MZZ trade?
All
After looking at the pnf chart for MZZ, this morning I put in a limit order to buy MZZ at 44.99 and also at 44.49. If it gets filled I will put in a stop at 43.99.
Assuming I only get filled at 44.99, then get stopped out, this would be a loss of 2.2%. If both orders get filled, my avg price will be 44.74, so if I get stopped out my loss would be 1.7%.
It looks to me like the potential target would likely be in the 48-49 box, so if you assume target = 48, this would be a gain of 6.6% (if filled at 44.99) or 7.3% (if filled at avg price of 44.74). So it looks like the reward:risk would be roughly 3:1.
ANy thoughts on this trade? I used a pnf with box size of 1.
the trend is clearly down and there is no support in this area, why are you trying to go long?
Sorry forgot to post the chart of MZZ.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...=MZZ,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!2!20]&pref=G
Quote from yayt:
the trend is clearly down and there is no support in this area, why are you trying to go long?
Quote from mdszj:
yayt - looks like MZZ has been trading in a bit of a range recently and I am expecting a general mkt pullback in next couple days. MZZ is a 2x inverse etf of mid cap index.
when you say "going with the trend" you are referreing to the longer upward trend, say over past month or so?
Quote from mdszj:
when you say "going with the trend" you are referreing to the longer upward trend, say over past month or so?
Correct - MZZ is an inverse fund so has been going down as the mkt has been going up. So my basis for this trade is that I believe that we are due for a mkt turnaround (down). Since MZZ looks like it is approaching a support line of about 45 I am thinking it is a reasonable low risk trade if I can get it the prices I mentioned.
QUOTES FROM HolyGrail
===> 3/22/08 (Original Post)
Since I own my own business I currently have the best of both worlds. I can trade much of the day without affecting my business to any great length, and I have a great income coming in whether I am successful at trading or not. I am advantaged in that I don't have the pressures to succeed other than the pressures I place on myself. I have been successfully trading futures for only 5 months
===> 9/24/08
Not doing any trading right now. Taking care of my business which is falling apart with this economy…
Q.E.D. Amazing, how going from “profitable trader with great business” to no longer trading and business struggling in only 6 (that’s SIX) months. Especially with the name “HolyGrail” and starting a thread to teach others how to do it. One man’s “success” is another man’s “well, not really…”
you are an idiot
Bought MZZ at 44.99, got stopped out at 43.99. Re-bought at 44. Hope this works out. Stop = 43.49. Guess we will see Monday...
Sorry to hear, (and my previous post wasn't directed towards you)
hope it works out for you 2nd time around
no prob - I figured it was for the other guy.
now I wish I had bought SDS instead of MZZ. Probably not that big a deal, will catch it next time around.
Quote from yayt:
you are an idiot
s500.i think you have to look at this as two lots of double-tops and not a quadruple top.above the line could be a trap zone
Quote from TraderZones:
If you think making an accurate observation makes one an idiot, then you need to go back and complete the second grade.
Quote from flyinglead:
TraderZone (and Yayt)
this has been one of the more civilized threads on ET. Hopefully it will stay that way and you two will discontinue your taunts.
Will this method work for everyone? Nope, I am having a hard time with lots of it, but it does give me some good insights, which I am using in my other trading methods.
Holygrail took the time to expose some of us to the basics of this method,. where we go from here is up to us.
Lastly, there are a lot of businesses that have taken a severe downturn lately. Maybe HG's happens to be one of those.
Thanks
I've always liked P&F as well as MP because of their ability to clearly illustrate fresh breakout and value areas.
P&F is 'old as the hills' - many floor traders in the '60's and '70's used to pencil in P&F sheets standing in the pits. As late as the early '90's you could still see the older guys with P&F sheets stuffed into their trading jacket pockets.
In terms of 'reading' actual price action other than an initial breakout or run to a fresh value area, there are certainly better tools than P&F IMHO.
__________________
Spread, Relative Value, and Correlation Trading Instruction from a Professional Trader. The only thing that matters are Clients making money IN LIVE MARKETS. Why not interview my clients for yourself on an independent basis. My typical client is an outright directional trader looking to pick up an industry-recognized specialty technique. http://www.spreadprofessor.com
Quote from bone:
I've always liked P&F as well as MP because of their ability to clearly illustrate fresh breakout and value areas.
In terms of 'reading' actual price action other than an initial breakout or run to a fresh value area, there are certainly better tools than P&F IMHO.
eurodollar..eurusd
a bearish signal reversed.this pattern looks to be forming
30 year treaury now offering an attractive yield
nas 100 setting up a bull trap.i think
eod data.10 point box size by 1 reversal
just my thoughts.not a trading recommendation
Would you please explain where and what would make a bull trap here. Thanks
Quote from dentist007:
nas 100 setting up a bull trap.i think
eod data.10 point box size by 1 reversal
just my thoughts.not a trading recommendation
The Chart Formations
The Bull Trap and Bear Trap
Michael Burke attributes this formation to the huge popularity of triple tops. Effectively, the chartist is paying the penalty for his buying point being known well in advance. The share price breaches a triple top by one box but there is no follow-through buying. The share price advances no further. Indeed, sellers, who may have been waiting on the sidelines for the chart-based buying to come in, start driving down prices. It is a bull trap. The share then executes a 3 box reversal. The assumed disequilbrium was an illusion.
It is important to note that Michael Burke regards it as a sell signal once the 3 box reversal is executed because there will be a number of bulls trapped who will be forced to liquidate. So it is not simply a failed triple top, but actually a sell signal as well. Fig 1 shows the bull trap. Fig 2 shows the bear trap.
chart to show what a trap is
text and chart from marcrivalland.com
he also says he does not like trading this formation
hope this explains it.if you look at marcrivalland.com.go to point and figure library.there are other chart formations.basically saying that the double-top is too unreliable.mainly trades variations of triple-tops and shakeouts
iam also using quotetracker.the p/f charting is great
1.intraday tick charts.these are really good for scalping purposes
2.historical charts in p/f.jerry medved has told me that these are calculated for hilo and cannot be displayed for close price.that is not a problem.these are excellent
3.dont use 1 box reversal.these are not wyckoff/one step back method.so the congestion areas are very wide.however,still look at them if needed
bullseye/archer analysis has closed for new business.quotetracker and stockcharts are ideal replacements
Thanks for the input. Am I correct that the current pattern is a double top, and for the bull trap to occur you would need a reversal back down and then a reversal back up and triple top breakout?
Quote from dentist007:
hope this explains it.if you look at marcrivalland.com.go to point and figure library.there are other chart formations.basically saying that the double-top is too unreliable.mainly trades variations of triple-tops and shakeouts
iam also using quotetracker.the p/f charting is great
1.intraday tick charts.these are really good for scalping purposes
2.historical charts in p/f.jerry medved has told me that these are calculated for hilo and cannot be displayed for close price.that is not a problem.these are excellent
3.dont use 1 box reversal.these are not wyckoff/one step back method.so the congestion areas are very wide.however,still look at them if needed
bullseye/archer analysis has closed for new business.quotetracker and stockcharts are ideal replacements
agreed with you robert.rivalland"s site saying that a triple-top should be the signal.the shakeout pattern is almost the same,but from a double-top.either way,it is a warning,uneless there is confirmation
my opinion only
anyway,happy independence day to you and all the other readers of this thread
non farm payrolls has sent the nas 100 into a constriction
chart enclosed
updated chart of the "bulltrap"
the upper chart is close data.the triangle.the lower is hilo data calculation.both have the same box size and also both are 3 box reversal.each configuration gives you more information for good analysis
hope this helps
nas 100 triangle broke downwards
could be recoil back into the pattern
Looking for daily P&F buy/sell signal totals
All
I have been looking for daily numerical totals of buy and sell pnf signals with not too much success. Looks like stockcharts does not have them, or at least I cant find them. Does anybody here know where I might be able to get pnf buy signals totals? I want to try comparing daily trends and compare it to mkt performance.
thx
try ted burge website
the tedlines.com
it is on public charts list on stockcharts
it is great stuff for s/r levels also
dentist
that is a great site and has the info I am looking for, thx.
Did you buy his e-book? If so, did you find it helpful?
Thanks
Quote from dentist007:
try ted burge website
the tedlines.com
it is on public charts list on stockcharts
it is great stuff for s/r levels also
tedlines. i think he looks at s/r on weekly candles.a meaningful s/r spot which gave a good move after it was hit.he then draws horizontal lines
.i think also he does the same with daily candles.he then matches both of them up with atr p/f chart
he also uses bullish percent for all indexes for breadth
there are a couple of his videos posted at the end of the point and figure thread on livecharts.co.uk.the message board which is free
i think thats how he looks at it.seems very straight forward
live intraday p/f charts can be had from mrswing.com
for all us stocks and indices.if you load the chart.500 columns,atr period.15 min and the 60 min data work well.all are 3 box reversal
and are free.just line them up with the free eod charts on stockcharts
robert.i dont have his ebook as yet.i might get it.i will let you know what is in it
intraday chart of nas 100 from mrswing.com
supp areas marked
ted burge also uses 10,20 and 50 sma on the daily for s/r areas
if anybody subscribes.let us know if there is anything else he uses
Quote from bone:
I've always liked P&F as well as MP because of their ability to clearly illustrate fresh breakout and value areas.
P&F is 'old as the hills' - many floor traders in the '60's and '70's used to pencil in P&F sheets standing in the pits. As late as the early '90's you could still see the older guys with P&F sheets stuffed into their trading jacket pockets.
In terms of 'reading' actual price action other than an initial breakout or run to a fresh value area, there are certainly better tools than P&F IMHO.
jeneral
may I ask what is P&F ?
Quote from bone:
I've always liked P&F as well as MP because of their ability to clearly illustrate fresh breakout and value areas.
P&F is 'old as the hills' - many floor traders in the '60's and '70's used to pencil in P&F sheets standing in the pits. As late as the early '90's you could still see the older guys with P&F sheets stuffed into their trading jacket pockets.
In terms of 'reading' actual price action other than an initial breakout or run to a fresh value area, there are certainly better tools than P&F IMHO.
nas comp
very bullish...intraday data 15 min interval
atr box size by 3 reversal
nas 100...wow hardly a retrace
s500 also in line
russell 2000 also bullish/just
intraday charts are free at mrswing.com
very useful.atr /20 period for the box size and 3 box reversal
http://www.scribd.com/doc/12712050/...Figure-Charting
Number of buy and sell signals
As of EOD on 7/27/09, there were 1262 NYSE stocks that currently have a buy signal, out of a total of 1819 NYSE stocks. Does this mean that the remainder (557 stocks) are currently on a sell signal?
http://stockcharts.com/charts/NYSEBPI.html
thx
chart posted on another website.
china on 35 times earnings.could melt down
price testing a longe term downtrend line
1630 ish.pivot on the nas 100
s 500 triangle
triangel update
nas update
pivot res..??
nas100
5 min data
2points box size by 3 reversal
s500 in a decision area
1 min data/close
a closer look at the latest consolidation
price is near to breaking upwards and making the chart bullish
a break above 1031 and retrace above the downtrend line makes this chart bullish
could go either way
just an opinion
nas 100
a closer look at the tringle.price in a downtrend.however, the upward price target 1656 is still active as 1639 was not taken out
the last pole / high got sold off quickly
could go either way on any news.key res at 1650
just an opinion
dow
15 min data
getting close to breaking a trendline
china in deep doo-doo
shanghai
daily data
first arrow is today"s close
second is vert count target
which way next.??
upside target of 1027.this will cease if 1016 is taken out
1 min data
dvol/uvol ratio staying at 4.5 or 5/1 if that shrinks, we could push higher, staying aware of end of month marking up at close possibility edit .dentist. thanks for posting these charts
thanks ammo for the info
happy labour day to you and all on this thread
we are having the equivalent of labour day.it is today in the uk
a minor breakdown
a lower box size.1 min data
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$SPX,P&listNum=
It looks like 1295 is predicted, how do you get it to show differently?
Quote from dentist007:
a minor breakdown
a lower box size.1 min data
s500 finished the day with a minor uptrend
potential price target of 1028
the higher trend id still down
5 min data
the same chart with a continuation of the uptrend line.uneless price keeps above this line then it is bearish
ndx is more bearish
5 min close data.a high pole that got shorted and a low pole that looks like it is not going back
1600 price target showing.price bounced off the trendline/up
need to see 1630 area act as resistance
let me know if you disagree
here is the right chart
nas 100 broken down
1530 price target
30 min data
careful of longs
nas 100 showing the same
update to the nas 100 chart.posted above
15 min
update to the chart posted before on the nas100
low pole was taken out.upside taregt showing 1820 from this chart.the counting column is labelled.
gbpusd
bullish/bearish signal reversed
15 min data
fxb
update
usdjpy.dollar bullish
projected price target aprox 94 area..purple line
daily data
0.18 by 3
verical count taken from the bottom upthrust column.target is now active
s500
5 min data
vertical count is now active.price target is marked.watch to see where this low pole retraces to
eurodollar topping
15 min data
target of 1.4200 area
s500
1 min data
which way will it break.?
target of 992 now active
update to the above chart
price getting squeezed
could be a big move soon
green trendlines
purple are vertical counts
nas100 also
Dentist007 I have to say, I really love your posts, keep on doing the good work!!!!
Something else for the PnF fans, maybe you guys have heard of NinjaTrader, it is a software package with technical analyze in it which didn't support PnF charts. They are at this moment developing the next version WITH PnF charts, they are in beta stage and require user input to it to make the PnF charts usable and if possible the best software package around.
One advantage of NinjaTrader is that it is free to use forever! You only have to pay if you want to trade from it, connect it to your broker to send orders in, but if you only use it as your analyze tool it is totally free! With the free version you may connect the package to your brokers quote data stream to get all data real time in NinjaTrader. It can also handle Tick data.
I use the free version and have connected it to Interactive Brokers TWS to get the Tick data and historical data into NinjaTrader.
So if you guys over here are interested go and give it a look and give your opinion about what should be changed to the PnF charts to make it usable, and if possible the best PnF charts around. The discussion with the developers about PnF charts is hold in this thread http://www.ninjatrader-support2.com...ead.php?t=21235
I hope some people will join me and help me to convince the people from NinjaTrader for some improvements, because before I used Quottracker but that software package isn't free anymore!
1 min data
oil
eod.prelim target of $85
70 cents box size.3 box reversal
close price
a very bullish chart..on the latest uptrend,there are no downside vertical counts that are active
imho...buy the dips
an opinion only..not a trading call
christmas has come early for daytraders and short term traders...
chart is of eurusd etf.eurusd is the main constituent of the dollar index whiich has been calling the shots for all indices since last march
15 min data points.box size 0.21 by 3 reversal
red arrow..this was a bull trap .so is now a strong support area
green arrow..a catapult forming.need to see rising lows for a good break above the resistance.we watch out for these.so plenty of volatility between these boundaries
just an opinion
dollar index etf
60 min data points
big res area.upward vertical count is active
same chart
60 min close data
%box size by 3 reversal
if this is a bottom,then we can perform a horizontal count
a break above the red line activates the horizontal count,with a target of 24.75 area.approx 7.5% away
dollar looking bullish.even more so if it closes above 23 on the 60 min chart.that will correct the stock market
just an opinion
update...the bulls got rejected.we are retesting the uptrend now,but still a downtrend.the major influence
i am a serious latecomer to this thread but want to learn much more about P&F.........any helpful advice on where to go to learn from the start (i never used p&f before) would be appreciated.... thanks in advance
stockcharts.com
chartschool
also readt the holy grail posts
s500
15 min data.hilo
2.23 by 3 reversal
which way will it break..??
Quote from dentist007:
stockcharts.com
chartschool
also readt the holy grail posts
__________________
▲
▲ ▲
first bearish signal this month on dollar index etf
got a target now on dollar index etf..udn
10 min data plot
Hey dentist, what did you base your 27.9 target on?
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Quote from stevegee58:
Hey dentist, what did you base your 27.9 target on?
dollar...no evidence as yet that it is going to rally
udn.dollar bearish etf
daily data
6 months data.
0.07 by 3 reversal
at support now
trap zone/red box area
possible bull trap.so we could get upward movement
a closer look at the uptrend.this is not broken as yet..green line.there is a downside vertical count that is active/purple
lets see what happens next..will the dollar rally and send the indexes down..??
Hey dentist are your trading UDN directly both long and short? Or are you alternating between UDN and UUP (the corresponding bull fund)?
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no.not trading it.i trade the ftse 100 index.
the dollar has been calling all the shots since march.so,i follow udn and uup
I am getting more and more interested in Point and figure trading
found this free book "The Point and Figure Method of Anticipating Stock Price Movement" written by Victor Devilliers
http://book.pointandfigure.com
It is a good read and gives good basic understanding of point and figure method and point and figure charts.
My problem with PnF charting is that the bread-and-butter buy and sell signals appear nearly at random.
Bottom line: PnF, in and of itself, offers no better than coin-toss odds for success. I understand that the technique is enjoying a quasi-religious revival in some circles but methinks the emperor wears no clothes.
Some may find it helpful as a trend filter but, for heavens sake, don't play in the traffic using PnF alone!
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It's only risky when you stop thinking it's risky.
There were several references to Tom Dorsey's book on point and figure charting in this thread and it's a good book (I own a copy).
DeVilliers' book is an "oldie but goodie" from 1939. There are pdf versions of this book floating around on the net if you look hard enough. I like having a reference that's from the dawn of point and figure charting since it's the straight dope.
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Quote from tortoise:
My problem with PnF charting is that the bread-and-butter buy and sell signals appear nearly at random.
Bottom line: PnF, in and of itself, offers no better than coin-toss odds for success. I understand that the technique is enjoying a quasi-religious revival in some circles but methinks the emperor wears no clothes.
Some may find it helpful as a trend filter but, for heavens sake, don't play in the traffic using PnF alone!
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Quote from stevegee58:
This is completely untrue. I'm no religious zealot; this method is based purely on price action.
The "bread and butter buy and sell signals" are double and triple top and bottom breakouts. How are these random? That makes no sense at all. A triple top on a PnF chart shows up on a normal candlestick chart as well.
Saying that PnF charting "wears no clothes" is like saying there's no merit to the classic concepts of double- and triple-tops/bottoms.
Is this what you're saying?
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It's only risky when you stop thinking it's risky.
Think reversals...PnF as visual statistics.
Try various price box points/ticks & number. Look for a reversal amount where the probability of continuation is significant.
Quote from tortoise:
Um ... no, that's not what I'm saying. Nice straw man, though!
As an aside, the "trader effect" has distorted some of those classic concepts: We've had a triple top or two this year that didn't quite pan out, didn't we? I certainly won't ignore triple tops (or bottoms) as a result. But I won't invest a lot of significance in them either.
The secret sauce is "nuance," something sorely lacking in PnF and other over-simplified approaches to the interpretation of market action. Here's my guess: ANYONE who thinks that some charting methodology from the 1890s is going to carry them through today's markets is fooling themselves.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Sorry, but it is very obvious you have no clue what you are talking about when it comes to P&F. Your last piece of advice is classic. Ever hear of Keep it simple stupid? When you learn how to read price action you have learned how to be profitable in the market. It's not the only way, but nevertheless, it is a way. Just because you can't use it doesn't mean it is not effective.
End of soap box. I can't believe this thread is still going.
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It's only risky when you stop thinking it's risky.
No, you said its signals were random which is really telling about your knowledge about the subject.
Quote from HolyGrail:
No, you said its signals were random which is really telling about your knowledge about the subject.
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It's only risky when you stop thinking it's risky.
In any event, I haven't been on the board in a very long time. I was just catching up on my reading when I saw your ill-informed posts. I'm gone again. Good trading to all. I just realized this is exactly why it is no longer worth my time to be on trading boards. Everyone is an expert at least in their own minds.
tortoise your complaint says p n f is not the holy grail, i 'm eating micro wve popcorn at the moment, not manna from heaven , but will suffice for now, HG,with all due respect,this p nF system is great with another 5 or 6 confirming indicators, by itself is subject to opinion,
Courtesy of Old Trader
I'll try to post more, but let me end with this story: I knew a guy on the floor who kept a point and figure chart by hand in the pit. He'd make his columns of X's and O's, and when the column of X's went past the last column of X's that was a buy signal, a sell was the same only with the O's. One day he explained how this chart worked to the biggest trader in the pit. The trader said: You mean you want to buy if it goes up here? The chartist said: Yes. So with a big flurry the big trader started buying...and drove it up to the spot where the chartist wanted to buy. When he stepped forward to buy, the big trader sold to him! Now he asked the chartist: You want to sell down here, right? And started selling until he drove it back down to the spot where the chartist sold, and the big trader bought from him. True story.
If you buy strength and sell weakness....you are at a maximum disadvantage. The big moves you'll make money on. But then again, anyone can make money on the big ones. It's all the other routine moves...which is most of them....you're at a severe disadvantage. Something to think about.
Hope this helps some.
Quote from Robert Yanks:
Courtesy of Old Trader
If you buy strength and sell weakness....you are at a maximum disadvantage.
Hope this helps some.
i walked into the pit, true story, had badge for 2 weeks, had market profile chart in hand, after being asked, what chart said,,told smart ass ego induced trader we are going here, he went back to small crowd of 5 traders surrounding public order broker(charles schwab, they were just scalping against his orders and paper was thin so ,if u werent in the click, u got no part of those trades surrounding public broker) ,he tells group ,, new fool says we are going here,they all had a good laugh, 4 days later after similar daily routine, came by 4 times a day for next 6 months and asked what chart said...if you learn to read one thing successfully ,you have an edge, things were simpler then, today ,you need to successfully read 4,5,6 things successfuly to have an edge....HG(and dentist) as explained in the beginning of this thread knows how to read P n F,apply that knowledge,look for 3 or 4 confirmations in other indicators and you have the confidence to ride a trade,.... some people here(ET) say read the price action, some say read the charts, both say there way to trade is only way,if we knew how to trade , we wouldnt be perusing the blogs for clues to improve....kind of a self incriminating statement to say u have the answer while searching and posting on a blog
dow
5 min data
HolyGrail
You have an addictive Beb (Bull's-Eye Broker) ? Then read this.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...threadid=178879
Quote from tortoise:
I didn't complain that PnF lacked complexity. I complained that it of lacked nuance.
Sorta like your response
BEB bad soft.
HolyGrail and older user have BEB.
You never questioned the fact that the lines of support and resistance in the soft BEB not ever executed? "In all books on P&F said that the lines exist, but if BEB on these lines to trade it will always be the loser.
Not asked this question ever? "The answer is very simple. The problem is in bad BEB drawing X and O. A simple example.
Compare the graph drawn by BEB and schedule drawn in http://stockcharts.com. The laws of painting P&F are the same, but BEB schedule does not look like the graph in http://stockcharts.com WHY?
1-
If you want to have a correctly drawing P&F, then have a link _http://www.gummy-stuff.org/PandF-charts.htm. Do not hesitate Excel correctly draws the schedule and line resistance and support in these graphs correctly.
2-
Pay attention to the label "box". If the Excel table where to write number more> 1, the schedule will have a strong filter.
This method is the filter I see the first time. Thanks to Peter Ponzo.
The laws are not the same. Some programs base everything on high/low, and some base it on daily close.
I use three programs including stockcharts so it really doesn't matter which one you choose as long as you stay consistent.
Quote from HolyGrail:
The laws are not the same. Some programs base everything on high/low, and some base it on daily close.
code:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis: pnf_charts
A related topic. Richard Todd of Move the Markets was nice enough to code a free PnF version for Ninja Charts. Nice because you can use with volume too. http://www.movethemarkets.com/blog/tag/free-stuff/
I believe they are fixed to 1 tick box size and any number of boxes for reversal.
I have immediately noticed S/R areas are almost effortless to see with PnF. Good trading to all.
spy...daily data plot
last apttern upwards is a catapult.the green area is where this pattern fails
update on failing catapult.getting very close to being bearish.if it retraces and then breaks down from this level.the target/downwards from the vertical count is 16% away
mistake made..total breakdown is approx 16%.we already have had 5%.so maybe another 10 %...if it colmpletes
just an opinion
Re: Looking for daily P&F buy/sell signal totals
Quote from mdszj:
All
I have been looking for daily numerical totals of buy and sell pnf signals with not too much success. Looks like stockcharts does not have them, or at least I cant find them. Does anybody here know where I might be able to get pnf buy signals totals? I want to try comparing daily trends and compare it to mkt performance.
thx
Quote from HolyGrail:
In any event, I haven't been on the board in a very long time. I was just catching up on my reading when I saw your ill-informed posts. I'm gone again. Good trading to all. I just realized this is exactly why it is no longer worth my time to be on trading boards. Everyone is an expert at least in their own minds.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Here is some food for thought. What if you have a stock whose projection is that it is going to zero. Would or could that indicate a bottom?
Right now AMD is projected to go to zero.
Quote from oraclewizard77:
...One other thought, do you think it would be worth it to say buy a vertical put option on a stock that gives you a sell signal and/or buy a vertical call option on a stock that gives you a buy signal? Or because you will be stuck in the option till time expires, it is not worth it?
Quote from yayt:
hey all,
Ive been looking into using pnf charting as a basis for longer term, position trading, where I'd want to capture a couple (or more) dollars as opposed to a few cents (relatively) trading intraday .
While I've only read posts regarding intraday trading , do you think this method would be conducive to longer term trading ?
Thanks again for the insights holy Grail and dentist and everyone else !
h
Quote from yayt:
The problem is, the signal came a couple days before its earnings came out, and while I knew this because I looked into the company and did some research before I went in, I thought it'd be helpful to warn people when holding onto longer term P&F based positions that news events...
...With regards to position trading, does it seem feasibly to take the private equity approach, and hope for lots of breakevens/slight losses and 1 or 2 homeruns?
...
Quote from yayt:
Is there a way to get this percentage reading, similar to downloading the historical daily data from Yahoo? I'm not really sure what Bullish % is
I think the easiest one to test first would be double top/bottom breakout/breakdown, with a stop at the last column of O's?
Re: Re: Re: Re: auth
Quote from yayt:
Yeah, it seems like you need a decent sum of money to trade P&F with stocks - you could do options but the time value is always an issue. It seems that you'd need options at leasts 2 months from where you enter, based on my observations (small sample).
I was thinking of getting into BNI at 100 but it didn't seem to have a lot of strength when I was watching it - it kept hitting a 100 and then heading back down.
Are you thinking of using options instead of just cash equity? At first I was thinking of getting 2 strikes above the current price but the problem is even if you're right and it eventually gets there, the time decay really hurts to watch. And then again, you could be completely right but wrong about the time, so I don't know whether one should be safe and pay for the extra time value of longer duration options (either in or out of the money) or just going for stocks (which I wouldn't want to do unless I could diversify across at least 10 stocks - not a possibility unless you have about 40K imo)
EDIT: actually, probably more like, AT LEAST 60K
Thoughts?
Quote from HolyGrail:
The bullish percent chart is a 2% by 3 chart, so it takes a 6% change to start a new column.
The relative strength chart can be anything you so desire. I use the s&p 500, but you can use your stock's sector chart, the russell 2000 etc. It is also a 2% x 3 chart.
Quote from dentist007:
a word of caution here.
the bullish per cent charts are calculated using the chartcraft method. 2% is a longer term box size.so the chart can print a double-top by virtue of a high reading on one day.this does not mean for sure there is a breakout,especially in these volatile markets.the best way round is to go to a 1% box size chart.ie the number of stocks in the index that have a bullish pattern on that box size.time the entry on that.vice versa on a downtrend
Quote from flyinglead:
... I was wondering if time movement has any bearing on chance of a good trade.
Scratch the above.
I replied to the Tiffany chart with it's Bl. Cat pattern rather than Emerson. Otherwise the same rules apply with a similar outcome.
MS
Quote from flyinglead:
After watching how a couple portfolios performed the last two weeks, Last week I was a King, this week I'm a Chump.
Right now, my mediocre long positions are dragging down the great positions.
I haven't touched anything in my portfolios yet, because I want to see how they do in different trends, and its obvious that even p&f signals don't make you immune to the market, but a few good home runs like CSIQ, PERY and ZEUS will keep a person afloat.
Thanks
Re: Hello every one.
Quote from weeed7:
Hello to all, and allow me to thank you all for great thread, and of course special thanks to the man that started it all, HG!
I have been following the thread for a while now. And i feel very lucky to have found it. I actually trade the forex,-( that's mostly why i never tried to participate in the thread until today)- and when i tried the P&F, found it to be of great help. But i'm a little confused about a few things, and i'd appreciate any help from you guys, and of course from you HG.
I trade intraday charts, mainly hourly, and m30. Now i know that time in theory is irrelevant in P&F, but when i started using them i found that they are based on the high, open, close, or the low prices. So in my case they are based on the OCHL of each hour. So, again the chart differs notably from one time frame to another. What is confusing to me is that if i use High prices in my chart, i find that the chart ignores the low swings, and if i use Low prices, then my chart ignores the high swings. and the same for close and open prices. Very often these swings are very wide, and cannot be ignored, or considered market noise!
I attached two screen shots of the chart i'm using, one with the chart based on High, and the other one based on the low.
You can see the difference between the high swing and the low swing, and they are both taken at the same time.
What would you advise me?
Quote from staffpro:
ok and in addition to my other question, i was wondering for swing trading would it be better to use maybe one box reversal charts?
for me at least it is easier to see horizontal formations and it just seems that on a 3box chart the gains or losses
thanks again love this thread and this method thanks HG, Dent007 and pnf and all the others that i forgot who contributed to this thread!!
Quote from HooLee:
Thank you. BP of your 800 stock database, or SPX index?
Quote from subq:
However, the traditional rule is that the X (or O depending on the direction) column must be completed in order to establish a count. It appears he is doing the count of a column that is not completed yet.
Heikin-Ashi + RSI
This topic was again raised. Most likely you'll be surprised if I tell you that when drawing P&F "High / low", you have a tench of support and resistance are not working. Drawing If P&F on the "Close", then you will be working through the support and resistance .
And why would we "High / low"? you ask. If drawing to "High / low" and there are visible graphic shapes, which are not described in any books on the P&F. Look carefully.
These figures are very expensive, and tench as well as support and resistance are profitable. For example in a standard TA is all well-known figure "Head-shoulders, in the P&F also have the figures but other. In soft BEB there are several such figures - such as a triangle. Look very carefully, that this figure does with the price?
....
All the breakthroughs at the double, and triple-top description here in the forum, nothing compared with the figures and lines of support and resistance.
Strategy is as follows:
1- to the graph of P&F on the "close".
2- to the graph of P&F on "High / low" for the exact purchase or sale.
3 -to the graph of P&F RS on the relative strength. Note that in effect, too Close to work through support and resistance.
4-Have matematiesky calculation chart Heikin-Ashi.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/heikinashi.asp
5 - With the data Heikin-Ashi build schedule RSI (20-80), speaking with confidence in 80% of the By or sale.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....ength_index_rsi
For RSI to pick up the value of "day" (14) itself.
With all this you can even trade Set the robot. What I'm doing today time.
P.S.
Heikin-Ashi + RSI is a very good indicator.
For RSI should have only the Close Heikin-Ashi .
Close (Heikin-Ashi )=(Open+High+Low+Close)/4
Quote from subq:
...the problem with that and one of the reasons for the rule... is that the column must be complete to have a set target, otherwise, the target could change as the column continues to change
Quote from yayt:
Maybe a ridiculous question, but, how often are these price targets hit?
i.e. what is the reliability of these patterns?
Quote from oraclewizard77:
...
Instead I will use for example pandf to find the stock, then do fa to determine if i want to invest / trade in it on a longer term basis.
Quote from hayman:
Thanks ! I was curious what you use. Seems like 1 point size with 3 point reversal was a better indicator to catch recent down drift from DOW 13,000.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Just curious, how do you take losses quicker in high volatility? I normally have to widen my stops to stay in the trade.
Quote from HolyGrail:
Well I am done for the day. Didn't have many trades today, but I traded both NQ and ES. I had a 5 point gain on NQ that I let get to break even. (I set it up for an 8 point target, and left a helluva long 18 tic trailing stop). I also took a trade on the button trader simulator that I wanted to take in real time but didn't. Of course it was a good trade, lol.
Anyway, it was an OK day, nothing great.
Quote from ammo:
you could buy puts or calls for an overnight protection,they don't have to be 100% insurance, i.e. you could be short potash at 220 and buy the 230 calls on the close ,it would give you some protection on the upside and you would still profit if the stock opened down because you are not spread off 1 to 1,
Quote from flyinglead:
... Which I will do in a month or two when my real job slows down and I have time to get everything set up.
Quote from flyinglead:
After it breaks out, but then pulls back at least one box
DF gave a short signal at 18, then pulled back up a box. Buy thinking you may get in at a higher price, before it continues down, but it continues up. Still not stopped out tho.
Quote from flyinglead:
Tried to short KNM and was instantly rejected. Any idea why?? Not a shortable stock?
Quote from flyinglead:
Has anybody been watching JNJ. Been sneaking up for a long time, and today I hear they are buying back a lot of their stock and Buffet has been large amounts of it. So my question, is it being propped up and the main reason it is up in a down market? Is Buffet buying just to keep his money in an equity that isn't tanking? The stock seems to be kinda sluggish right now but at least it hasn't tanked like some of the stocks.but what happens when the bear market ends and they start to sell off?
Quote from HooLee:
Yes you will do well if you can identify range bouncing and trending correctly. P&F is about trend following, and typical win rate for such systems is about 30-40%.
(I am sorry to learn of your property loss, sir.)
Quote from flyinglead:
Did everybody give up? this thread sure went dead.
couple things I've noticed about p&f. doesn't matter how good the signal is, how it is doing against its sector or one of the indexes, a bear market is still a bear market. I'm sure this ties in to bulllish percentage altho I am still struggling with the bullish percentage. Probably cause I haven't studied it thoroughly.
Quote from dentist007:
does anybody have a name for this chart pattern.?
a 1 box reversal hilo data.0.5% box size
i am thinking of: fishing line with a hook
Re: different PNF chart
Quote from anugrahtex:
I am still studying these PNF chart
But when I try to study . for example DJIA/$INDU
i got different chart , all is under :
BOX : 1
Reversal : 3
but from Stocksharts AMibroker, or Prorealtime i got 3 different chart..
Is it because PNF is for personal or is it the starting point is different.. ?
need comment..
thx
Quote from yayt:
I'd look to get short msft if it reached the previous 2 tops and then began reversing down again
keep posting, I'll try to post some charts soon myself
good job on the trade though
Quote from rtr1129:
I have been reading this journal from the beginning, and it's great, but the one thing I have not felt confident about at any point is trendlines.
In many of the posted charts, I see numerous places where a trendline should be drawn according to HolyGrail's description of how to draw a trendline, but a trendline is not drawn.
Example: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attac...&postid=1849155
Around the 11.00 price level, near the center of the chart where the 8,9 is, it looks like there should be a trendline, but no trendline was drawn.
There are many other charts like this that have been posted. I basically just want to feel confident when drawing a trendline on PnF charts, but I feel like I'm missing something.
Is it really as simple as an X going higher than the previous X, and an O going lower than the previous O? In the posted charts, did people just leave off trendlines that were unimportant to the point they were making, or did they not draw the trendlines because a trendline shouldn't have been drawn?
Quote from rtr1129:
Okay, I gave it a try. See attached chart. I included the double top/bottoms and connected them to the trendlines. Let me know if that's correct, incorrect, or just overkill
Quote from CWU:
First, you looked at the stockcharts P&F chart and that’s a good thing because I provided their code pounder with the exact algorithm I posted here. (This was some 5 or 6 years ago.)
I see that you added 4 superfluous secondary BLSL – but for what reason?
First, master the Bullish Support Lines and Bearish Resistance Lines. Then, the Bullish Resistance Lines and Bearish Support Lines. Then, short term lines
Take any chart in Bullseye, remove all the trendlines, go to the hard left and start drawing in the trendlines. Simply follow the algorithm. Post that.
Quote from dentist007:
p/f for fx
tasc article
Quote from TradinMadMan:
obviously, someone doesn't know what's going on here.
Good charts and commentary dentist.
Re: Possible SDS trade?
Quote from mdszj:
All
Just wondering if it may be a good time to go long SDS (2x inverse S&P) based on current pnf chart: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...=SDS,PLUADANRBO[PA!B20!B50][D][F1!3!1!!2!20]&pref=G
The chart shows that SDS now has a O in the 68-69 box, which looks like a support box. It can go as low as 67.01 before it fills in the next lower box (67-68). Closing price as of Fri 4/10 was 67.13, so it looks like it is very close to a good support level and stop loss point.
My trade would be: go long SDS now, down to as low as 67.01. Set stop at 66.99 because if it goes lower than this, looks like the next lower support it could go to is a O in the 65-66 box. Assuming you get in at 67.13 and then get stopped out at 66.99, this is a 0.2% loss (not too bad).
If stopped out I would then watch it when it reaches the 65-66 level and jump in at this level (somewhere in the 64.01 - 65.99 range).
Does anyone have any thoughts on this trade? Any ideas welcome, thx.
Re: MZZ trade?
Quote from mdszj:
All
After looking at the pnf chart for MZZ, this morning I put in a limit order to buy MZZ at 44.99 and also at 44.49. If it gets filled I will put in a stop at 43.99.
Assuming I only get filled at 44.99, then get stopped out, this would be a loss of 2.2%. If both orders get filled, my avg price will be 44.74, so if I get stopped out my loss would be 1.7%.
It looks to me like the potential target would likely be in the 48-49 box, so if you assume target = 48, this would be a gain of 6.6% (if filled at 44.99) or 7.3% (if filled at avg price of 44.74). So it looks like the reward:risk would be roughly 3:1.
ANy thoughts on this trade? I used a pnf with box size of 1.
Re: Number of buy and sell signals
Quote from mdszj:
As of EOD on 7/27/09, there were 1262 NYSE stocks that currently have a buy signal, out of a total of 1819 NYSE stocks. Does this mean that the remainder (557 stocks) are currently on a sell signal?
http://stockcharts.com/charts/NYSEBPI.html
thx
Quote from tortoise:
Um ... no, that's not what I'm saying. Nice straw man, though!
As an aside, the "trader effect" has distorted some of those classic concepts: We've had a triple top or two this year that didn't quite pan out, didn't we? I certainly won't ignore triple tops (or bottoms) as a result. But I won't invest a lot of significance in them either.
The secret sauce is "nuance," something sorely lacking in PnF and other over-simplified approaches to the interpretation of market action. Here's my guess: ANYONE who thinks that some charting methodology from the 1890s is going to carry them through today's markets is fooling themselves.
So what you are saying is that you still need to do your analysis of the overall market?
I have just begun studying PnF so its all really new to me. I see you have done a lot of work by commenting on old post.
Great work
Re: BEB bad soft.
Quote from TTTrrr:
HolyGrail and older user have BEB.
You never questioned the fact that the lines of support and resistance in the soft BEB not ever executed? "In all books on P&F said that the lines exist, but if BEB on these lines to trade it will always be the loser.
Not asked this question ever? "The answer is very simple. The problem is in bad BEB drawing X and O. A simple example.
Compare the graph drawn by BEB and schedule drawn in http://stockcharts.com. The laws of painting P&F are the same, but BEB schedule does not look like the graph in http://stockcharts.com WHY?
1-
If you want to have a correctly drawing P&F, then have a link _http://www.gummy-stuff.org/PandF-charts.htm. Do not hesitate Excel correctly draws the schedule and line resistance and support in these graphs correctly.
2-
Pay attention to the label "box". If the Excel table where to write number more> 1, the schedule will have a strong filter.
This method is the filter I see the first time. Thanks to Peter Ponzo.
Re: Re: BEB bad soft.
Quote from Moss Strohem:
From 1/7/10
I agree with this post. The link displays the flowchart for proper chart construction.
http://www.gummy-stuff.org/PandF-charts.htm
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index strength (RS)
I want to warn those who make the analyzer assistant or a robot for P&F using the index strength (RS).
Index of force always count on Close.
RS = CLOSE price paper / CLOSE price index (eg DJ).
If you'll apply the High and Low, you can turn out a paradox when a division is High
Sample:
Paper
High=3
low=2
DJ
High=4
low=2
RS High=High paper/High DJ=3/4=0.75
RS Low=Low paper/Low DJ=2/2=1
RS High(0.75) < RS Low (1)
========
In order to avoid the paradox, we must apply the Close paper and Close DJ.
P.s.
Soft BEB used only Close for RS.
dollar index short term roadmap
an important chart
the price action of the dollar index recently coincides with a succession of bull traps../ blue elipses
thinking that it is easier to sell the rallies in the indices...just an opinion
spy at res
SPY *is* at resistance, but if it does a double top breakout there's a series of higher lows to support the case for a short term rally.
Next resistance would be 110.7, giving about a 1:1 trade.
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agreed steve....but the uup chart is in such a bullish state.i will post a chart to show
uup chart with supporta areas and vertical counts
blue lines are rising supports
green re vertical count targets
there is only one downside count still standing.this will get taken out if 23.80 is broken.
two of the upside vertical counts are off the chart
dollar started getting bullish on thanks giving weekend.nd of november.dubai started it off
basically...dollar up/stocks down
just an opinion
steve.i understand youre raesoning of rising lows
see this chart.all i am saying is beware.the uup is a very bullish chart and that is calling the shots
another strategy,which might be safer is to short the rallies,buy the oversold and scalp the bounces off major supports
just my opinion
dont forget,the last few upmoves have been bull traps.
a possible breakout point looming on uup.it could fail at this point.however rising lows present,could go back and wait, a possible triple -top then looming.too early to tell.lets see
dollar index relative to the nas 100
1 minute data plot
dollar index breaking down against the nas
uup at support
a res area on uup
i have a powerpoint presentation given by jeremy duplessis to eauropean conference of technical analysts in feb 07.unfortunatley,it will not upload to this site
email me at dentist007@gmail.com,and i will send a copy
even easier...you can download it from the web
I apologize if this question has already been answered in this thread. I have read through most of it over the past few months, and I also tried using the search function.
Is there a program out there that will allow a trader to search for a specific/custom P&F pattern? For example, is there any way to search for the exact pattern attached to this post?
(Note: I just made up that pattern as an example. It is not part of an actual trading strategy.)
Thanks in advance for any replies to this question. Good trading to all.
That is not a standard p&F pattern. Stockcharts.com scans for most of the normal p&f patterns. This won't help you with day trading, but it will certainly help you with swing trading.
Quote from HolyGrail:
That is not a standard p&F pattern. Stockcharts.com scans for most of the normal p&f patterns. This won't help you with day trading, but it will certainly help you with swing trading.
I've tried many charting programs for real time charts that display p&f charts. I haven't seen a charting program that shows p&f patterns in real time. Sounds like an opportunity for a software guy to provide a day trading p&f chart with continuously updating signals.
QuoteTracker has pretty good real time p&f charting, but no signal detection. Maybe NinjaTrader has support for this as an add-on.
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updata do p/f in real time..you can have data from dtn iq or esignal.streamed tick data.however,bullseye are working on real time.they say it might be available soon
Dentist, are they printing out the current signal on the chart as well like stockcharts.com does?
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updata...no not printing the current signal.but they do plot vertical counts automatically.you can also scan for custom p/f formations.they charge $75 a month.you provide youre own data source.
currently,data can be input from barchart,interactive brokers,iq feed and esignal,also mytrack
bullseye do give the signal,when you hover over the chart
Quote from dentist007:
updata...no not printing the current signal.but they do plot vertical counts automatically.you can also scan for custom p/f formations.they charge $75 a month.you provide youre own data source.
currently,data can be input from barchart,interactive brokers,iq feed and esignal,also mytrack
bullseye do give the signal,when you hover over the chart
not sure about order execution.you mean interactive brokers.?
the p/f scan is good.you just input the pattern you want to look for.this is done by cllicking on "x" and "o" to form the pattern.then input the box size and reversal.it will also do the standard patterns also.
you can also scan for p/f relative strength patterns.ie p/f pattern on rs charts
Investor r/t provides real time pnf charting
i had a look at investor r/t.the p/f charts just dont look right.
Re: Learning to read Price Action with P&F Charting
Quote from HolyGrail:
I came to ET about 2 years ago with the hope of picking up enough tidbits to become a day trader when I retire. I am definitely a type A personality, and I know I will go nuts if I don't keep my mind occupied. I think trading can keep my mind sharp for many years. I have been swing trading since 1997, but I wish I knew then what I know now.
Since I own my own business I currently have the best of both worlds. I can trade much of the day without affecting my business to any great length, and I have a great income coming in whether I am successful at trading or not. I am advantaged in that I don't have the pressures to succeed other than the pressures I place on myself. I have been successfully trading futures for only 5 months so I can't say I am , or my methods are the holy grail, but I do know at least for me my trading became consistently profitable when I allowed myself to trade with, and only with P&F charts.
I've tried just about every possible way to trade, but nothing gave me any indication of potential consistency. I did notice that some of the most successful traders only needed price to make money so I finally began pursuing charting techniques that would display price in such a way the eventually I would "get it" I looked at renko charts, tic charts, candlevolume charts, three line break charts, kagi charts, and finally point and figure charts.
This journal is being written to help those that want to learn how to read price with P&F charts. It's not going to be a "hey look what I made today journal". There will be no live trades called. I don't have time to work at the office, trade, and post. I will only answer questions during lunch, if I am available and in the evening.
If there is not any interest, I will stop the journal.
Re: Re: Learning to read Price Action with P&F Charting
Quote from EmotionBigEvel:
Dear HolyGrail,
It has been 2 years after you started this thread, I started following this thread since last August, but I am still still following it. I have read it over a couple of times. In the mean time I have also read the book from Jeremy du Plessis about PnF and I have also experimented with PnF in the real world and I really like it!
As a trader you learn each day a lot of new things and you improve as a trader and you keep on saying "if I would know than what I would know now..." so I was wondering what have you learned in the two years since you started this thread (if you are willing to share)? I guess you have seen a lot of new insights? And do’s and don’ts regarding to PnF . I hope I am not asking things you would not like to speak about or offending you, I am just an interesting guy trying to learn, and who has made all trading mistakes possible during the learning process to get an edge on the markets.
You said that you were profitable for just 5 months when you started, have you stayed profitable since?
How are you using PnF nowadays in your trading strategy, are you trying to get the big trends or do you try to make your money by trading just a few patterns you like?
Are you using more tools / methods together with PnF charts to have a good edge on the markets (e.g. Price action)? If you are using more methods could you point into a direction of research that would also be interested to dive into as PnF was really an eye opener!
To be honest, I used PnF charts for years, I once read a book where they ONLY pointed out how to calculate vertical price targets and that together with watching where a lot of tops and bottoms in the PnF charts where to see places of strong resistance and support. Those two things I then used in the normal candle charts. So a whole new world opened for me after reading this thread and the book of Du Plessis, thanks for that!
BTW. Maybe other PnF Gurus would be willing to give their vision on those questions also?
a happy easter /pasover to all
may the year continue to be volatile and profitable
Quote from dentist007:
i have a powerpoint presentation given by jeremy duplessis to eauropean conference of technical analysts in feb 07.unfortunatley,it will not upload to this site
email me at dentist007@gmail.com,and i will send a copy
it turns out that bullseye can update in real time,from intraday live data.if you set up qcollector to retrieve data from esignal or iq feed.then bullseye will update automatically...i think
qcollector costs$129.a one off payment.it will collect data from esignalor iq and update bullseye automatically at timed intervals.i have not tried it as yet.there is a video by mtppredictor on how to set up qcollector
Good site for PnF and reliable S/R levels
You may be interested in this site, has S/R levels for many indixes and stocks, etc. The site is a paid subscription but he also has a free set of charts on stockcharts. I am currently subscribing to the paid site.
http://thetedlines.com/
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/...t?obj=ID2684038
BTW - I have no interest in whether people join up with this guy, just thinking it may be of interest in this thread.
"The story is told that after he had been deported to Italy, Infamous New York City gangster Lucky Luciano granted an interview in which he described a visit to the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. When the operations of floor specialists had been explained to him, he said, 'A terrible thing happened. I realized I'd joined the wrong mob"
dentist , could you give an update on your pnf for spx, thanks
here is the nas 100
10 min data input
0.15% box size by 3 reversal hilo plot
nas still weak,uneless it takes out that res..imho
nas 100 is weak on the daily chart.a high pole ,that has retraced more than 50 %.still in an uptrend
Quote from ammo:
dentist , could you give an update on your pnf for spx, thanks
dollar index..daily data
a closer look at the data.a smaller box size
dxy in an area of resistance
trend is up..lat siganl was bearish
thanks
eurusd 10 min data.just got bearish
12 pip box size by 3 reversal/close data
not good for stocks...dollar short term strength
s500
10 min data input
same characteristics as the nas 100
ammo...support at the trendline.the vertical count downwards is active.bulls nor bears are winning
imho
cable...gbpusd
10 min data
possible upside failure.the dollar seems to be strengthening
thanks
Quote from dentist007:
ammo...support at the trendline.the vertical count downwards is active.bulls nor bears are winning
imho
nas daily
pole reversed
some strength coming in
update on the eurousd chart i posted on tues .that chart was really bearish then.watch the retrace of the low pole to see if the eur has strength
if not,then more down moves in commodity stocks and also index
looking at the chart.there are long down thrust columns and short recoil columns.need to see the recoil columns get longer.if it bounces.then watch 3350 area for strength.
nas 100
10 min data.coiling up.looks like its goin to pop
eurusd 10 min data.some recovery and is getting bullish.no upside vertical count established as yet.needs 1.3360 area.market undecided until a count is established,if not the shorts will see the weakness and take it back down
eurusd 10 min data plot
9 pips by 2 reversal.to show the trend.price in a newly established uptrend/greek bailout.res area at 1.3400 ish
if any weakness seen.shorts will move in.there are plenty of hedge funds shorting the euro
nasdaq 100.1min data
1.50 by 2 reversal.the 2 box reversal shows the price action more clearly in this case.hilo
one week of data.a bullish chart.the downthrusts were quickly taken out
ftse 100.one minute data.comodity weighted index.in a downtrend until friday.when eurusd recovered
one week of data approx
dow...1 minute data
a bullish chart
nas 100...hourly data
2.50 by 3 reversal..hilo plot
a double-top breakout
eurusd 10 min data
the jury is out on this one
update on chart from yesterday.a break of support at the beginning of a new trend..could be a shakeout.a bear trap or a new selloff
it was a sell off
active downside vertical count of 1.3000 area.a bearish chart.uneless news comes in,then not good for stocks
hourly data
20 pips by 3 reversal...close data plot
showing downside count which ha a target of 1.3000 area.1.3200 prev maj supp
nas 100...10 min data
5 points by 3 reversal.close data
at support.no negative signal given as yet
update on the dollar index chart i posted
just about to break the down trend line
thanks for the dollar chart. interesting to see that and gold up today.
euro turning up against the dollar.in a res zone now.looking for any upside failures,or trend continuation
10 min data
9 pips by 3 reversal
lets see what happens
eurusd 10 min data
#the latest upthrust has not confirmed an uptrend on this chart.at res now/green 45 deg trendline.careful with stock longs today
eurusd.10 min data
9 pips by 3 reversal.close data
the down column today has activated a price target of 1.2900 area.black line
dollar strength
the big move yesterday.a low pole.needs to retrace to 3050 to show some strength.otherwise,back down we go
10 min 9 pips by 3
Hi dentist007,
being a relatively new pnf follower and trying out charting software, i noticed you have switched from posting Updata's charts to BBbroker charts.
are you still using Updata's package if not, why the change ?
thanks,
Totantaz
beb.i bought it last june for $ 149.all data is free,including the intraday source.i dont need lots of intraday tick data
Ok yeah,
i got the beb package also, but started using updata. im still not sure of my preference just yet.
im starting to develop and forward test my strategies. after experimenting with different things for the past few months, i stumbled on PNF and really like the "keep it simple" fell to it.
cheers,
Totantaz
dollar index in a res zone..uneless more rioting in greece
eurusd..1 minute data..there is 2 weeks of data on the chart
lots of downtrendlines=lots of resistance
11 pips by 3 reversal
close plot
scanning for my stocks yesterday, i had trouble finding any good bullish formations.
monday will be interesting
Totantaz
eurusd should call the shots next week.i think..that is why i post the charts on this fx cross.although,i dont think it will be as wild as last week.central banks might stabilise it all
just a thought
nas 100
1 min data plot
2 weeks of data
3.5 pts box size by 3 reversal
there is a big res area looming.chrt is bullish.ie last signal.market will decide the direction
yep looks like there is some upside this morning
es future rallying, interesting to see if its a big trap or the correction is fading
Totantaz
Quote from dentist007:
1 min data plot
2 weeks of data
cable...gbpusd
20 pips by 3 reversal..hilo
10 min data plot..approx 3 weeks of data
only a small pullback,since we went into the idea of a hung parliament
some well defined trends
eurusd
10 min..20 pips by ..hilo
some nasty lookin downside vertical counts/black lines
TTTrrr.i dont understand what you are on about..please explain more clearly.thanks
eurusd ..hourly data
25 pips by 3 reversal .hilo
there is an active downside count of 1.2100 area.
dont know what the numbers equate for the dow,nas
Quote from dentist007:
TTTrrr.i dont understand what you are on about..please explain more clearly.thanks
TTTrrr...now i do understand what you are talking about
ok..so technically bullseye should not be used for intraday data.this,to me is garbage.i have configured bullseye to read intraday data from two sources.it works great.the charts are correctly presented and look great.i know carl is working on a real time version of beb.ie the data does not have to be downloaded,but is streamed to beb.however,there is a way round this,which i did tell him about.the data can be collected from esignal or iq feed at regular intervals,input by the user.the data is collected by qcollector and put into a file on the hard drive.beb will refresh automatically.i told him that there was no need to write a real time version
one thing i have come across,when using intraday data...the look back period must have enough data to get the whole trend,whether it be a major ,intermediate or minor trend.this is needed to input all the 45 degree trendlines for the whole part of the trend,including all the internal trendlines.this enables you to break down the chart with 45 degree trendlines into bullish and bearish sections.so,for minor trends,i will look at the 10 min data,because it has a 3 week look back period.my reasoning is that any minor trend does not last more than 3 weeks.
Quote from dentist007:
TTTrrr...now i do understand what you are talking about
ok..so technically bullseye should not be used for intraday data.this,to me is garbage.i have configured bullseye to read intraday data from two sources.it works great.the charts are correctly presented and look great.i know carl is working on a real time version of beb.ie the data does not have to be downloaded,but is streamed to beb.however,there is a way round this,which i did tell him about.the data can be collected from esignal or iq feed at regular intervals,input by the user.the data is collected by qcollector and put into a file on the hard drive.beb will refresh automatically.i told him that there was no need to write a real time version
one thing i have come across,when using intraday data...the look back period must have enough data to get the whole trend,whether it be a major ,intermediate or minor trend.this is needed to input all the 45 degree trendlines for the whole part of the trend,including all the internal trendlines.this enables you to break down the chart with 45 degree trendlines into bullish and bearish sections.so,for minor trends,i will look at the 10 min data,because it has a 3 week look back period.my reasoning is that any minor trend does not last more than 3 weeks.
fine..send it.i will try and configure bullseye
make sure its in csv format and not text.beb cannot read text
Quote from dentist007:
fine..send it.i will try and configure bullseye
make sure its in csv format and not text.beb cannot read text
dentist007
sample image.
I used data on minutes a week. Damn P&F excel, and BEB. The figure shows that BEB not made a reversal, although the Classics should do it. Me by soft proposed change in the intraday data date and place of the time to insert days. As soon as I had done in Metastock BEB drew me everything correctly with the thrust reverser.
for more.......
look
you date
05/12/2010 12:11:11 4343653
05/12/2010 12:12:11 34535343
05/12/2010 12:13:11 35345
05/12/2010 12:14:11 3454353
05/12/2010 12:15:11 3254343
When data is one and the same day, BEB would draw P&F is not correctly. Must be that day was different.
05/12/2010 12:11:11 4343653
05/13/2010 12:12:11 34535343
05/14/2010 12:13:11 35345
05/15/2010 12:14:11 3454353
05/16/2010 12:15:11 3254343
With these data BEB will draw correctly.
Re: dentist007
Quote from TTTrrr:
sample image.
I used data on minutes a week. Damn P&F excel, and BEB. The figure shows that BEB not made a reversal, although the Classics should do it. Me by soft proposed change in the intraday data date and place of the time to insert days. As soon as I had done in Metastock BEB drew me everything correctly with the thrust reverser.
Re: Re: dentist007
Quote from dentist007:
i think i know what the problem is..youre excel could be calculating from hilo plot and not close.hence the reversal column down is wider.ie 2 columns down
or
the excel formula does not match the beb formula for calculating the chart
ok..so carl is saying that beb cannot read the data properly as there is no time interval on the csv input.i am not sure what you want to do
70 pip box size by 3 reversal.there is a down thrust column / orange line.this will activate a vertical count of 1.0700 area.1.2460 needed on this chart to activate it.not forgetting there is no time for this target.it will make this chart very bearish,if 2460 broken
not good for stocks
Quote from dentist007:
ok..so carl is saying that beb cannot read the data properly as there is no time interval on the csv input.i am not sure what you want to do
1.2460 got hit today in the european session.as it is a hilo plot,on daily data,we dont need to wait for the close.the chart of eurusd daily.70 pip...above now has a downside count active of 1.0100..approx 20 % away
dollar index just about to enter a major res zone
good for stocks
nas 100..hourly
dow hourly
more resilient.. i think
eurusd..10 min
15 pips by 3 reversal
in an area of massive resisitance.many downtrend lines
n
eeds to break this before stocks can move up
opposing poles
hourly data.45 by 3 reversal
according to the textbook.opposing poles.the appearnace of a second pole,enhances the down move if it is a low pole.pleas correct me if my interpretation is wrong.shorts could be moving in for another look..??
eurusd..hourly
in a res zone and also possibly going to give a bullish signal.consecutive double-tops...however,caution,there was a bearish signal between them.ie the low pole
31 pips by 3 reversal.close data
looking for failed signals or break upwards
eurusd
hourly..log box size.shows the trend well.
looking like a recoil in a downtrend
nas 100.hourly close data
some noise taken out
overhead trendline resistance.if no support,then 1750 area
nas 100
10 min
at res area now.do we go up or back down..??
dow..hourly plot
60 by 3 hilo
looks like 9900 is very important support area if we get there
10260 to be taken out if there is some strength.ie a retrace moe than 50% of the low pole
dow..hourly showing a very bearish scenario in price action
70 pts by 3 hilo plot.the last top broke down witha triangle.now there is a low pole.the green line is whre strength could show.an active downside vertical count to 8500 area.lots of support areas between 10000-9000.balck line/horizontal on the left..there were lots of column direction changes in that area on the way up.could be the same on the way down.lots of overhead resistance lines.this chart has turned nasty in the last few days
the reason in p/f terms to say the chart had got very bearish
i increased the box size to 80 points to condense the price action.the top that was made on 14 jan 2010/where you see 14 on the chart.the downward column afterwards never had a vertical count activated.however,if we look at the top from 23 april and downward column,starting with 4.there is an activated downside count 8400 region.this got activated on thursday
lots of support areas between 9200-10000
eurusd hourly
28 pips by 3 reversal hilo plot
price has a possible 100 pips to go before it reaches major resistance/the main downtrend line.we are at the 50%retrace from the latest low pole breakdown.also the bounce from 2180 area
there are a couple of bearish downside counts ,and also one upward,just about intact.it looks to be one hell of a move to break that resistance
nas100..hourly
bounced of a support.now at res
16 by 3 hilo
where next ..??
Quote from HolyGrail:
Investor r/t provides real time pnf charting
There is no time element when tick data is used. When tick data is not available the next best thing to use are one minute charts. This is time being forced upon you, but often it provides a different perspective that could prove helpful. I like to use different time periods to develop targets. You can often find meaningful targets by changing the time period and making comparisons.
eurusd.hourly data
28 pips by 3 reversal
about to hit a brick wall from a breakout of a triangle .these can backfire and blow youre head off
eurusd...what is next for the markets
do we get a rally from the bullish support line/blue or do we get a downside breach ....??
20 points by 3 /close/hourly
tin hats on for this one..eurusd chart just turned ultra bearish
no wonder the stock market sold off today
eurusd ..hourly data
28 pips by 3 reversal .close plot
there are no bullish upside vertical counts,there are only downside ones/black lines /vertical
there is an inkling of an upside vertical count.the latest up column.below the purple line/vertical.we need to see if this gets bullish,otherwise,it get fully bearish from that possible upside failure
lets see how this plays out
not good for stocks
a higher box size..38 pips by 3 /close..hourly
a well defined support area.a new upthrust column is starting to build
.
so too early for a fully bearish picture as yet
update on the previous chart
eurusd..hourly
38 pips by 3 hilo
a triangle formed
WHICH WAY WILL IT BREAK..??
Hiya Dentist007,
keep them up i like following your forex charts,
quick question
i see that you use High/Low Data, What is your take on the High/Low vs. EOD Data based on your trading experience
Thanks a bunch,
Totantaz
a chart of eurusd
sentiment is bad for the euro.but we could be in a bounce zone
the bearish support line accoding to dr zieg the p/f technician,is drawn from the highest "X " in a column of "X" s.the "x" should be exposed.ie not covered by any X or O "s
so i have drawn 2 bearish support lines /green.one is about hit already.the lower should hit at parity and coincide with the downside vertical counts
daily data..100 pips box size by 3 reversal.hilo plot
so if this is right,then we might be in a major support area
tolan
the eod data can be close or hilo
same with hourly /10/1 min
the software can plot either the close reading only.or hilo
i look at both..i am trying to find which chart for that data series can give me some form of understanding to what is happening with the price action.
there is overlap when looking at p/f charts,when changing box sizes with different time inputs.so you just learn to ignore the ones that tell you nothing new
i hope this explains it
Hiya Dentist007,
keep them up i like following your forex charts,
quick question
i see that you use High/Low Data, What is your take on the High/Low vs. EOD Data based on your trading experience
Thanks a bunch,
Totantaz [/QUOTE]
tolan.i forgot to add something.the data comes in and has 4 values:
open
high
low
close
and volume
the software will either read the hilo data and plot the chart or it will read the close only and plot the chart.it does not matter if it is eod,hourly,10 min or 1 min
the box size is input,with the reversal size.
hence you will see charts with very long columns or very short ones.then you have to go to work to get them to what you think is the correct size
a diiferent box size..50 pips by 3 reversal.daily
close data.there is a bearish support line.showing 1.1880 area
lets see how well dr.zieg"s method works
update on the nas 100 /hourly
16 by 3
uptrendis still intact..just
range is getting squeezed.could be a big pop soon.between the two black horizontal lines 1840 area is where it gets interesting
approx 13 months of data here
euro watching.1.1880 was the support area.good old dr.zieg !!
eurusd.hourly.approx 4 months of chart data
33 pips by 3.hilo plot
lets see what happens between the green lines.the lower trendline/green has been drawn.in p/f you can draw a trendline if you think a top/bottom has been made.plenty of overhead resistance.the low pole just about been taken out.so there could be some strength....short term
ftse 100..in the uk market,there looks to be a change in trend.aa new short term uptrend has started/green line.need to se price stay above it.res areas are the downtrend lines
10 min data.a high-ish box size/30 points by 3 reversal
close plot
too early to say if it has any meat..lets see what happens
no bias change seen in us indices at present
no stock market rally just yet
there is a mass of resistance 2 boxes away.1.2180-1.2240
hourly eurusd 21 pips by 3 close.data is from 28 april 2010
update on eurusd
hourly data input
38 pips by 3 rveersal hilo
that is a tough cookie
eurusd..hourly data
45 pips by 3 reversal.hilo plot
this chart has got bullish today.next res area shows up well.approx 100 pips away..ish.double bearish resiistance lines
because there are so many resistance areas ,it will be a slow grinding rally,until they are all taken out
masses of volatility until 1.2800 area..if we get there
happy father"s day to all males...
bears beware !!!!!
dont call the top of the stock market just yet...
eurusd 9 pips by 3 reversal/close plot
hourly data from 5 june approx
look at the uptrend that started on june 6TH approx.
this is very bullish price action.notice how the down columns are getting shorter.
uneless this chart changes in character,then up we go..there are plenty of overhead res area to short from.
the market ot news will decide when the top is in/long term
eurusd..this chart has tuned short term nasty
eurusd hourly.11 pips by 3 reversal.hilo
a minor top looks to be in.there is a horizontal count./black line that has a taget of 1.1800 area.there are vertical counts/initial to 1.2050 area.uneless the bulls come in,then the rally is going to fail
update on the 38 pips by 3 reversal.hourly hilo chart of eurusd
price action is keeping bullish
nearly all the downtrend lines have been taken out.there is a spread triple-top forming.we could break upwards at the third attempt.or we get another knock back.the spread triple-top is more bullish than a plain triple-top breakout
eur broken out.spread triple-top
chart is now bullish
eur broken out
chart is now bullish
eurusd.hourly data input
38 by 3 reversal ..hilo plot
#a high pole at res makes this cross vulnerable to a short term sell off
eurusd daily data input
an intermediate resistance area encountered on the latest uptrend which started in june
66 pips by 3 reversal hilo plot.green line showing the res area..45 degree trendlines/down.price breakout is a high pole
a higher box size..81 pips by 3 reversal..hilo
we are now in a pretty major resistance.this should set back a summer stock rally for the time being
a minor top forming in eurusd.there is a potential downside count /black line
eurusd.10 min data.17 pips by 3 reversal.hilo plot
1.2400 is the downside count area
care needed with the stock rally that is being talked about
dollar index 0.35 by 3 hilo.daily data input
there is a test of a major trendline,but no signal ie.double-bottom that is needed to show a proper break of trend.one more "O " is needed
On page 5 and counting
eurusd.
21 pips by 3 ..hourly hilo
either we break out or we get a failed signal,support is near now.if that goes,stocks break down to next supp level
thanks dentist
dollar ine was picked up on a 1 box reverddex starting to kick back.the move was picked up on 1 box reversal chart.price has not changed direction on a 3 box reversal chart.price bounced.now at res.could be the start of a new uptrend or a bounce in the downtrend.too early to say
eurusd..8 pips by 1 reversal.close plot
10 minute data input
been range bound for a few days.however,according to duplessis,activity at the top of the pattern could indecate selling.a few tests of resistance followed by a sell off.price has rallied.see green trendline,tailed off a little.need to see if support comes in or we go back down to the black lines.the bears will quickly spot a lower high and could take out the support area
a slightly higher box size.dollar index is still trending downwards.chart is bearish,although there is a column change.prv supp areas can be seen at 81.00 and major at 80.00
Relative Strenght
The RS in PNF format is calculated on regular OHLC bars or on PNF?
Where can I read more about the indicator?
Is it used only for swing trading or can be also used for intraday trading?
eurusd..27 pips by 3 reversal
hourly data.hilo plot
possible top in this latest uptrend.no verical count established just yet
dollar index..eod data
1 box reversal
chart is now bullish.going to run into res though
eurusd..been trying to find the best box size that give some explanation to the price action.there is no set box size for each time horizon,so a bit of trawling around.
so,imho,this is what the price action is
50 pip box size by 3 reversal...close data plot
daily data input
so price has had a long upthrust column with no follow thru.ie a high pole.price has now retraced approx 50%.this is at a critical point now.if the bulls cannot get support,then the bears will spot the weakness and short it down even more
this coincides with dollar index.a high pole now ata resistance area
dxy.daily dat input
0.1876 box size by 1 reversal.hilo plot
so expecting volatility with no clear direction until the dollar index direction gets resolved..imho
dollar index dat is loaded from quotetracker into beb
this posts seems very useful for me to read the chart. Thanks
tradingplat..glad the thread helps
eurusd hourly data...from begiining of june 2010
23 pis by 1 reversal.squeezed between supp and res.trend is down..so dollar possibly going up
trying to get some clues about non farm payrolls on friday
dollar index..daily data
0.1640 box size by 1 reversal
hilo
res is at 83.60 area.dollar has got bullish on this chart
watching the reaction over tomorrow and thursday around the green uptrend line.this line could act as support over the next couple of days.if it does,we could have a clue to friday"s action
so lets see
support never held on the dollar
however,3 box vertical count.the target has almost been achieved..black line.support area is well defoned..if it holds
this is where we stand on eurusd/ short term..for sunday night and into monday..
trend is up ,uneless a reversal starts
.if it does,at this point .3450 looks to be a good support.it was res on the way up.
if there is a down move.the market will see if 3450 acts as a resistance,that will signify a short term change in trend.
approx 2 weeks data
25 pips by 1 reversal.hourly data input
if we get more upward movement,we shall look for the next support area
#
nice orderly price action in the nas 100
hourly data input
6 points by 1 reversal
2004 was res on the way up.if there is a trend change,then could be supp.if trend changes,then look for 2004 to act as a resistance..imho
otherwise look for the next supp,if market tracks higher
thanks for keeping up this journal dentist...eur usd
ammo...thanks for the chart.it looks like the chart is saying that eurusd is at resistance..could be....the dxy chart i posted seems to confirm this..however,i think the fed wants to trash the dollar to aid recovery.so ii dont know where resistance could be.the difference being that we are all trying to predict potential resistance...that could be dangerous,especially for me..i always lose when i do that
hourly cable into sunday night and monday
a triple-top break above 5750..lets see if it is support.a bullish chart.no sign of a change in trend
a move up..then look for the next support.a move down ..look for 5750 as support.if that breaks then 5750 as resistance coming upwards
hourly data
32 pips by 3 hilo
some guy on cnbc video saying that it is the revaluation or non fixing of the yuan that is causing dollar weakness..not fed intervention
he says 1.4600 area likely within 3 months
qe2 seems to be the dollar weakness scanario according to many analysts
eurusd..the trend is up,uneless some new news comes in
eurusd..hourly data input
plot is 29 pips by 1 reversal..hilo
at 1.3800 area of resistance.there is a cluster of previous resistances at 1.3660-1.3688.also trend support at 1.3717 area.
any upside failure should have good support between 1.3680-1.3720.imho
if there is any breakdown,then look for this area to act as resistance
otherwise up we go
looking at eurusd..thinking it could give us some idea of what might happen on friday for non farm payrolls.eurusd has broken out,so looking at previous resistance that might act as support
chart is 10 min data input.19 pips by 1 reversal..hilo plot
res areas showing up nicely at 1.3888 and support at 1.3832
say between 1.3820 and 1.3890 is the support for this latest upmove.so,if we get a retarce back into this zone,then watch to see if it acts as a resistance.
market,thinking dollar has strength
imho
btw..3920 is the 50% retrace on the pole..the latest upthrust column
eurusd..10 min data input
2 weeks of data
32 pips by 1 reversal
above 1.4000-1.4020 area is resistance
supports at 1.3880../previous res,could be new support ?
1.3856 area support
and 1.3820 area..a prev res,that acted as support
there are no real clues on this chart about future direction..it is rangebound now
cable..gbpusd
10 data
42 by 1 reversal
5960 prev res..coulsd act as support,if we get another upmove
otherwise 5876 and 5834 supports
1 month of data on the chart
eurusd...hourly...45 pips by 3 reversal
which way will it break ???
currency wars....
there is some negativity coming into eurusd.we have seen this pullback before so, not putting too much emphasis on it just yet
houly data input
23 pips by 3 reversal
lets see if any chinese currency manipulation has been taken out
a closer look at eurusd..chart looks bearish.some long downthrust columns rom the top..ie.longer red columns than blue....from the second top
plenty of internal trendlines.so plenty of res if there is a bounce
victory for the dollar...possibly
1 week...10 min data input
9 pips by 3 reversal..hilo plot
eurusd nailed...stocks down
its the chinese again...imho
lol
cable..most people seem bearish
35 by 3 daily data.hilo plot
yes,a double top..no real negativity as yet
6 months data on the chart.last pullbaack was relatively small.so need to see where major support comes in
well..just as you thught the dollar was getting bullish.a major intervention on 20 oct.broke the downtrend.lets see what happens around the green line
18 pip by 3 reversal.hilo..10 minute
3 weeks of data
plunge protection working overtime...??
cable..gbpusd
vey short term..is the downtrend finished or do we bounce ??
16 pips by 3 reversal..hilo plot
10 min data
3 weeks data approx
eurusd appox 2 weeks of data
we can see the latest downtrend which started on monday morning 26 october..green down line
this has now been broken on thursday 28 october.chart got bullish again on friday 29 octobe in the us session.
dollar weakness again now.so stocks possibly up.mid term elections etc etc ?? i think
14 pips by 1 reversal.close
10 min data plot
How do you get the data for the Bull Eye Software?
ah ah..that is my little secret
just jokin
data is free from dukascopy
negativity creeping into the euro.we have seen this before.so lete see if 1.4010 acts as resistance.that consolidation could get taken out
hourly data input
48 pips by 3 reversal.hilo plot
data is from 21 september
not good for stocks
eurusd...hourly data input
14 pips by 1 reversal.
1 month of data on the chart
price still in an uptrend.nearly back at the trendline.need to see where support comes in,or do we continue down.
virtually all the move upwards sparked by mmore qe has been taken out
dollar index daily.the supp and res areas can be seen.however,these can be difficult sometimes to really pinpoint.howeverthe easiest thing to spot is the trend.a decent support area cannot really be considered uneless we have a break in the latest downtrend line.imho
6 months data
audusd..2 weeks of data on the chart
15 pips by 1 reversal..10 minute close data
this one of the commodity fx pairings
at a resistance.no sign of a breakdown as yet
dollar testing resistance now
could be choppy
eurusd. the downtrend that started on 5 november/non farm payrolls day looks to be reversing now
3 weeks of data on the chart..10 min data plot
14 pips by 3 reversal.hilo plot
lets see if the support..black line holds and the uptrend line
weaker dollar=good for stocks,uneless the downtrend continues
cable.broken downwards.need to see 1.5920 to show some strength
hourly dat
21 pips by 3 rveresal
eurusd.hourly data
19 pips by 3 hilo
the minor bounce soon got taken out .all negative now.at this point we need to see 1.3530 area as support to show some strength rom this low pole
cable..gbpusd
downtrend of the last week.
not sure where support will come in.although 1.5580 could be it
possible base on euro
eurusd..last week,downtrend
15 pips by 1 .close
base did not last long
no signs of real support as yet
according to deutsche bank .portugal about to hit the fan in january.so i will eventually post a chart of potential support areas...god help us if the spanish were next after the portugese.i hate to think where the support areas could be
Dentist
Your charts are most informative and I've been admiring their clarity.
I have a newbie question however...
you seem to vary your box settings (9x3, 14x3, 19x3 and so on)... How do you determine which box size is the best fit for what you think the chart is telling you? Is there a policy of one size fits a particular time frame that you have in mind, whether you're trading intraday or swing trading. Or is it an arbitrary thing to back up your opinion, ie the equivalent of flicking through different time frame candlestick charts to give you a better feel for the market?
Any info much appreciated - I've spent the last week learning as much as I can about PnF, this seems to be the most comprehensive thread so far.
Thanks,
Progressa
anyway,something noted from the price action.at this point it is more important to trade from resistance / short..support is really not known in these turbulent times
see arrow from this morning"s price action.price up at resistance..got quickly shorted down.seems to be happening on most days in the european session.so just thinking..better not to call support areas.better to look for resistance areas
imho
eurusd..10 min
Quote from progressa:
Dentist
Your charts are most informative and I've been admiring their clarity.
I have a newbie question however...
you seem to vary your box settings (9x3, 14x3, 19x3 and so on)... How do you determine which box size is the best fit for what you think the chart is telling you? Is there a policy of one size fits a particular time frame that you have in mind, whether you're trading intraday or swing trading. Or is it an arbitrary thing to back up your opinion, ie the equivalent of flicking through different time frame candlestick charts to give you a better feel for the market?
Any info much appreciated - I've spent the last week learning as much as I can about PnF, this seems to be the most comprehensive thread so far.
Thanks,
Progressa
Ok, I see, thanks for that.
If you don't mind, one more question - and sorry if this is more like babypips, but there aren't many decent forums for P&F.
How do you get these box sizes? 13, 8, 9, 43 etc... do you calculate them from ATR, some previous large move, fibs or some other measure? It's just that they seem random (although admittedly they seem to work fine!)
From reading through this thread from the beginning I've toggled my chart from anything from 0.5x3 to 25x3 but it's difficult to know which is appropriate.
I have to say, even 1x1 looks quite good to my eye at the moment - although I realise that's probably negating any value of using P&F - but it does seem to offer a decent smoothed version of what's happening (intraday that is)
Thanks,
progressa
well,i got the euro wrong.it bounced,early in the week,on news of ecb intervention and then on non farm payrolls
however,now the chart looks interesting
a high pole in a downtrend...this could be a dead cat bounce
hourly data input 32 by 3 reversal
pleanty of resistances around.a couple of vertical counts have been put on.
stocks bounced in line with eurusd chart this week
chart date is from beginning of august 2010
eurusd.being held up at 1.3180.looks like it will break downwards
hourly data
mixed signals on the dollar
cable / gbpusd is bullish.1.5860 area is resistance
dollar index etf..uup
bullish etf on usd
2 weeks of data on this chart
dollar went billish on tuesday.note,lots of uptrendlines/green.the bulls soon got in when it pulled back
broke the res at 23.20 area,now gone back in for a test as a support
looking like a gap down on the indices for monday,uneless other news comes in
hourly data input
32 pips by 3 reversal hilo plot
3 months of data
eurusd
lets see if this support holds and thea new uptrend is happening.could be a bounce in a downtrend.certainly in a resistance area now
a prosperous new year to all
may the volatility be with you
the euro will certainly provide it this year...nobody knows the end game
cable
hourly data input.4 months of data
50 pips by 3 reversal hilo plot
downtrend......now look at the consolidation and the support at 1.5400
so nfp tomorrrow.i have drawn a trendline/blue,from the latest low .to see the reaction,if there is strength or weakness in the dollar..
eurusd
price\at support
lets see what the reaction is aound the uptrend line
Box size/leverage
Hi there dentist007, I was wondering what your leverage was considering your box size is 70 points?
A 3 point reversal P&F would be 210 points, and with 100:1 leverage thats over double your positon?
Would you use 20:1 leverage to trade FOREX P&F? Or is my observation wrong here?
I was considering using P&F for forex because the S/R is wide, but flawless otherwise,but with a box size of 20 points.
Thanks
100:1 leverage
so, on a mini contract the margin is $100,and each pip is worth $1
ordinary contract,margin $1000,and each pip is $10
i trade 5 mini"s
but...the charts i post are just for interest.the signals on daytrading are from 2 box reversal..hilo plot
2 box shows up s/r better on intraday,and allows the stops to be closer...1 box hilo..the charts are too wide
200 pips/day is easily achievable
i have increased the $ amount for each pip,but found more success on smaller pip amount
eurusd looking a bit stronger.possible breakout brewing
daily data input 55 pips by 1 reversal.close plot
above this is resistance
a close above 1.3365 makes this chart bullish......however, 1.3475 area is a start of a new resistance zone that goes to 3650.zone is marked..black lines/dotted.this is false breakout territory.i have put on a couple of trendlines to see where strength/weakness could lie
this chart gives a better veiw
67 pips by 1 close..daily input
1.3400 is resistance.however,the death zone starts at 1.3460 area,uneless there is bad news with the dollar
eurusd...bulls still in control
3 weeks of data
36 pips by 1 reversal.close plot
10 min data input
an excellent week looming.hopefully lots of voatility
bulls in control/short term.however,look what faces them
daily data input,50 pip box size by 1 reversal.
close plot
eurusd...too early to tell which way it is going
45 pips by 1 revesal.hilo.daily data
eurusd..a closer look at the potential breakdown scenario
hourly data input
37 pips by 1 reversal..close plot,this removes some of the noise
supp areas /potential
1.3580
1.3500
1.3430...this is a major one
lets see if the egyptian riots strengthen the dollar
Dear Dentist, on a little bigger box size you see a clear trend within the EURUSD.
This chart has a box size of 0.5 procent and shows a clear trend up to the 1.4160 after which we will probably see a small pull back after which it will move up (very high probability) to (big guess) 1.45 or higher:
emotions..thanks for the chart..it was getting a bit lonely in here
ws..just elaborating on what i just said in the chatroom earlier
eurusd..potential bias change setting up ahead of nfp tomorrow
shorts will be in if there is a weak bounce off the 3560-3600 supp area/black line,and trendline.note the downtrendline which has been drawn.we can pick off strength and weakness from this..
hourly data
Quote from dentist007:
emotions..thanks for the chart..it was getting a bit lonely in here
only spot fx,eurusd and cable.with a little bit of ftse 100.sometimes the dow
the indices are not futures trades.we have in the uk spreadbetting.ie you bet that the index will move at say £3 a point.dont need to open a futures acc
fx has been very volatile and thank god pretty predictable.the volumes are so large it just moves from supp to res
i use a spreadbetting broker in london..if i think the bucket shop is trying to screw me,i can go there quickly and put a brick thru their window
eurusd...looking like a false breakout.more than a 50 % retrace from the top..downtrendline is in position..we watch the possible retest of 1.3400 area breakout point.if we retest and we get a bad bounce,then shorts come in for a kill.the downtrendline is in position so the bounce can be assessed.weakness is there due to the high pole retrace..4box retrace on a 6 box breakout.76 pips by 1 reversal..daily close
It seems I'm one of the few on ES that uses P&F charts. I use P&F charting for my longer-term trades, typically from 2 weeks to 3 months, but I've never attempted to use them for daytrading. Have any of you had success daytrading with P&F's???
__________________
Moonie
Daytrading P& F's??
I seem to be one of the few ES members who routinely use P& F charts. I use P& F charting exclusively for longer term positions however, from a few weeks to a few months. Have any of you had success daytrading with P& F charts? Do you find specific P&F chart patterns more applicable to daytrading? I normally trade the ES and trade exclusively Price Action. Thanks in advance for your insight!
Hi,
im getting back in Point and Figure, of all the method i tried i find that its the most simple way of seeing true S&R levels.
looking foward to posting some charts to continue this nice thread
cheers,
Totantaz
totantaz...great stuff
it was getting very lonely in here
freestockcharts.com...you can export free intraday data into bullseye...for all us stocks,index,etf and of courese forex..works really well
cable showing signs of breaking down
54 pips by 1 reversal
4 hourly close input
Okay,
so here are my point and figure swing plays for the start of the week
LONGS
CMS - above 19.9 on nice trendline
http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/68...0219longcms.png
FHN - above 12 on bounce
http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/...0219longfhn.png
FST - above 40.5 on nice triple top break and nice trendline
http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/...0219longfst.jpg
GILD - above 40.25 on big catapult bounce
http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/...219longgild.png
SHORTS
CTRP - below 39 on triple bottom break and trendline
http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/...19shortctrp.png
TSLA - below 22.25 on weakness
http://img502.imageshack.us/img502/...19shorttsla.png
UL - below 28.8 on spread triple bottom break
http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/95...0219shortul.png
URBN - below 36.75 can't seem to pierce big resistance area
http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/...19shorturbn.png
im still not sure about the image hosting thing, any suggestions ?
cheers,
Totantaz
hi tolan
you are an updata user...looks nice
chart looks pretty bullish.hopefully $20 resistance gets taken out quickly
here is a chart i thought you might find interesting.4 hr data from freestockcharts.com
21 cents by 2 reversal hilo.you can see that 18.80 area was the resistance from early october to the end of december.note how price went down in february to support/previous res.it soon got bought from that level.a good sign imho
enclosed chart
oh yes
that area seems like a very good base for some more upside.
i love updata, its a bit buggy with IB feed but usable anyway.
ill keep folks posted on those swing trades if they trigger
cheers,
Totantaz
eurusd 2hour data input
23 pips box size
downtrend line got broken last wednesday
cable..gbpusd
broken out on 2 hourdata input
wow so basically everything on the watch-list went down.
no longs and 2 entries on the short side
TSLA and LLY
lets see how many O they print hehe
cable..gbpusd
daily input
54 pips by 1 reversal/close plot
still in an uptrend.some zones to watch for support
6090 and 5980 areas..these zones are not that specific on the daily..just gives you an idea though
chart goes back to august
eur..be careful with shorts.price got rejected at previous resistance.the breakout point is clearly seen and 2 trendlines support this uptrend.need to see where it retraces
turning attention to oil now
brent/hourly input
$0.300 by 3 reversal.close plot
wow..this looks a one way ticket.price has retraced back to $110 ish.there is an activated vertical count that gives an upside target of $125,uneless price goes below 105
not good for stocks imho
a better chart for brent crude.hourly data still
0.40 by 3 reversal..close
there is an activated count at $122 and an unactivated for £136 area
west texas crude/nymex
10 min data input
0.70 by 1 reversal...close price plotted
$100 area prevres acted as support.this looks to be a strong supp area
nymex crude
$1 box size by 1 reversal...close plot
breakout on friday..same time as nfp data called the shots for stocks.easily seen on this chart
10 minute data
nymex cude
0.9 box size by 1 reversal..
close plot
no sign of a reversal as yet
10min data input
nymex crude
34 cents by 3 reversal.hilo
10 min data from 22 february
uptrend went into consolidation from last monday,followed by a break of support on thursday/103 area.in a minor downtrend now,with supp showing at 99.50 area.the critical $100 area
do we move up ?? or minor downtrend continues ??
the bigger picture
hourly data going back to 20 january
0.25 cents box size by 3 reversal
the s/r areas show up nicely
the latest downtrend just looks like a correction to the uptrend..see what happens at this res area looming at 101.50 ish
Thanks for the posts, Dentist.
dollar index,now taken on a very bearish scenario
0.280 by 3 reversal..hilo plot.the last consolidation has broken down,with a long downward thrust column/black line,vertical count of 70 ish.uneless support comes in...good for stocks and commods
thinking that is not so much the interest rate rise expected in euroland,more about debasing the currency with qe3 ??
does that seem right ??
let me know
eurusd.daily data
as we go yo nfp on friday.chart is bullish,and it has a long way to go before it becomes bearish.a slight overstretch on the last break and previous res area stopped it/possible temporarily
62 pips by 1 reversal/close
portugal debt downgrade or nukes did not stop this uptrend
nfp might just stall it temporarily.but no sign of a reversal as yet
eurusd hourly data
59 pips by 1 ..clse
a nice uptrend that started on 7th jan
will it breakdown ??
support coming in for the dollar
daily data
eurusd daily data
looks to be overbought
nas 100...2 hourly data input from 20 november2010.in support area now.a bad bounce and the shorts move in
thanks dentist
Quote from moonie:
It seems I'm one of the few on ES that uses P&F charts. I use P&F charting for my longer-term trades, typically from 2 weeks to 3 months, but I've never attempted to use them for daytrading. Have any of you had success daytrading with P&F's???
Quote from EmotionBigEvel:
Dear Dentist, on a little bigger box size you see a clear trend within the EURUSD.
This chart has a box size of 0.5 procent and shows a clear trend up to the 1.4160 after which we will probably see a small pull back after which it will move up (very high probability) to (big guess) 1.45 or higher:
emotions..thanks for the charts.keep em comin
dollar index daily.about to enter a resistance zone.a bounce,but not really a confirmed change in trend
eurusd..levels to watch
1.4620 area and above..watch for weakness or strength in this resistance zone..if it gets there
eur just got very bearish today
eurusd.4 hour data.36 pips by 3 reversal.hilo plot
downward column with target at 1.300 ish now active
strong dollar ..not good for commods or stocks
uneless support comes in..down we go
6EM1 0.001x3 on a 1min chart
On a short term we are still in a short since the conformation of the triple bottom short on 1.479
In the upcomming days we will see if we will make a short term bottom around the 1.44 but it has all the potential on the short term to go lower.
For the long term, the chart I posted last week is still intact. I don't see the EUR going straight to 1.30 I think we will go up in the upcoming days, the long term chart has to make upside boxes, you rarely (almost never) see a chart structure where it looks like this and then only downside boxes straight to 1.30
After the column of upside boxes we will probably be able to say more about the direction of the EUR/USD on the long term...
agree with all that.thanks for the chart.
Some people asked what is the market going to do...
NQ 5x3 waiting for a triple bottom sell @2370
well..according to daily fx/john kicklighter..the index has stood up well since the run on the euro.risk is still on,unelss 1330 breaks on the S 500
enclosed chart..4 hour data 5 points by 3 reversal.from this chart 1320 area looks to be the area.seems to be a pretty good judgement of the ongoing risk scenario..imho
Too far to short??
Any thoughts? Too late to short? Targets?
Thanks in advance.
Quote from dentist007:
totantaz...great stuff
it was getting very lonely in here
freestockcharts.com...you can export free intraday data into bullseye...for all us stocks,index,etf and of courese forex..works really well
bullseye can read all data from freestocks.if you send me a pm with an email.i can send you the scrreenshots of the file format setup
Quote from dentist007:
bullseye can read all data from freestocks.if you send me a pm with an email.i can send you the scrreenshots of the file format setup
Re: Too far to short??
Quote from TradinMadMan:
Any thoughts? Too late to short? Targets?
Thanks in advance.
Re: Too far to short??
you have another 45 on there,play long /short above or below,its also a hns pattern
Quote from TradinMadMan:
Any thoughts? Too late to short? Targets?
Thanks in advance.
dxy/dollar index
daily data..about to break.a print of 7640 makes this chart bullish with an upside price target
eurusd daily data55pips by 3 reversal
about to hit a very important supp zone 3970-4080
Newbie trying to pick up on this stuff. I've really enjoyed reviewing this thread over the last week. Please bear in mind I'm trying to get the basics down at this point.
I'd also like to thank Dentist for all his help so far.
Am I correct in seeing a triple bottom sell on GOOG? If so, how would I go about drawing my trend lines to figure out target?
Thx
Thanks EmotionBigEvel & Ammo. You both are correct.
risk is still on.s&p 500 bounced off the trendline support.the new support to maintain this uptrend is about 1320 level
5.50 points by 1 close.daily data
a small error in the last chart.the data input was 4 hour and not daily.the daily showed congestion mainly,the hourly was a bit noisy and did not show clear direction.freestockcharts.com have 4 hourly data,which for this market,to me gives a clearer picture
here is the chart which has been magnified
now we have some clear support area and a new uptrend just started
so.looking for rfesistance to this minor uptrend.as the previous downtrend has only been short lived,i have gone to the hourly data input to see what is happening.
as you can see,the index closed at a resistance area.if this breaks,then we look to that area for possible support if it is retested
from this chart we can see the next res area at 1340 ish.still on the hourly data input.this looks quite a strong area of res
nfp on friday
look for youre favourite signals in those areas
well folks...the dollar has got bullish
last signal was bullish.just retracing back into the support zone now..74.00 area.end of qe2 is in sight
the chart does not get bearish until we hit 72.85 area
daily data
0.370 by 2 reversal..close data
eurusd.. 30 min data
a pole after the data on friday from nfp and the greek debt decision
15 pips by 2 reversal
hilo plot
any weakness will show at the 4580-4595 area.ie the 50%retrace of this move upwards from the triple top breakout on friday
if price moves higher then the chart is replotted to see if a new pole has formed
eurusd.4 hour data
38 pips by 2 close
showing a pole ..at this point this is a false breakout.it has not retraced as yet.raw a trendline from the top to pick off any strength or weakness that may evolve over time.the 50% retrace/blue line at 1.4440 area is another area to watch
Re: Re: Learning to read Price Action with P&F Charting
Quote from gwac:
very interested
cable/gbpusd
from this chart price could go either way.tend is up,last signal was bullish on 27 april.however,note the downtrend line.bulls not in complete control now.
same box size but 2 reversal...close
daily data again
2 important support areas have appeared.
thinking that the bulls will have these areas retested in the nearish future.
what do we do....well ,we watch for weak bounces.upside failure..not taking out a min 50% fib or in p/f failed counts,horizontal or vertical on lower t/f or box size
then we will know who is in real control in these important areas
just my two cents worth
let me know if you agree or disagree
Long time not seen guys but here is a quick update...
As you can see the FTSE 100 has created an other top. If it had enough strength it would have broken the triple tops. Because of the fourth top it means there is weakness so a break wouldn't mean a perfect trade, it can but the chances have lowerd.
GC or Gold 1%x3 a triple top breakout would mean new highs for Gold! And would be very interesting to take!
EUR/USD as said before I didn't expect it to go to 1.3 at once, the pattern wasn't there but now everything is possible! I have no idea how to trade it at this point on the longterm. I go for short term trades.
CL or Oil 1%x3 has made a very nice triple bottom sell after which it made a retracement back to the breakout. The retracement started at exactly the point where you could have expected to find support. And I wouldn't be surprised if this was to lowest point of CL for the comming months, I can see higher prices. But you have to wait for a signal to trade it.
NK255 0.5%x3 as I said before I didn't expect it to go high from that triple top buy signal, I expected it to turn down very soon. Yes it happend even made a nice tripple bottom sell signal that I would have taken (I don't take long term trades myself, I am a full time day trader, so I am out of the market at the end of the day, but the signals are the same). But as you can see not every trade will be a winner, this is one of those trades that would have been a loser! There is not enough weakness to bring the trade down to 8500 but the high probability was there so you should have taken this trade with this high risk/reward number to support it.
FXStreet.com are reviewing Jeremy du Plessis's The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure in a webinar on the 26th of July.
This webinar will be comprised of a short introduction to Jeremy's book by Gonçalo Moreira followed by a question & answer session with Jeremy.
The presentation will be most useful for those interested in how well Point and Figure charts work when trading the currency markets or anyone with a general interest in Point and Figure charting
a false breakout on the s500
hourly data
5.00 by 3 reversal.hilo plot
Quote from dentist007:
FXStreet.com are reviewing Jeremy du Plessis's The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure in a webinar on the 26th of July.
This webinar will be comprised of a short introduction to Jeremy's book by Gonçalo Moreira followed by a question & answer session with Jeremy.
The presentation will be most useful for those interested in how well Point and Figure charts work when trading the currency markets or anyone with a general interest in Point and Figure charting
hey emotions
i listened to the webinar.i did not see the screen,as i was listening thru my bluetooth headphones.so i was sitting in the garden whilst listening.
not alot was new imho..but if you look hard at the book,there is not a huge amount of bare facts.the main thing is practice.so it was nice to have a few minor points mentioned
volume..he covered
1.volume/time.ie amount of volume on a 5 minute candle
2.volume by price.ie volume at a specific price
3.volume by column.ie the amount of volume per each p/f column
i think that is plenty as far as volume studies are concerned.i am sure there are others..anything else ?? let us know
have you ever thought that many market participants get things wrong and enter badly,hence clouding the action.so maybe volume is not entirely reliable...just a thought
i do see many bad entries and bad analysis on the chat rooms i visit
did u tape the webinar ??
have a great weekend
keep truckin
emotions
you also have market profile on updata
do the p/f breakouts ever respond to the market profile signals ??
do both give signals in the same place ??
gold...
this is a chart of the spot price
hourly data $3.50 box size by 3 reversal.close
no sign of a reversal downwards as yet
how to get data into bullseye from freestockcharts.com
1.right click on desktop and create a new file.call it freestocks
2.go to freestockcharts.com and put up a chart.go to the icon which says export data
3.export the data and save it in the file freestocks
4.only export the price history
5.you must give a name to the saved file...say spx 5mins.if it s500/3 mins
now you have the data in youre file ready for bullseye to read
bullseye
you will need to set the file format
here is a screenshot of the setup
bullseye..
now you have the file which has the data and bullseye setup to read the data
finally...
go to the data wizard
click next
select data source
click on "i have data in text or excel files
click next
right click on the side button and find the freestocks file
text file format: find freestocks text file format as per the screenshot
click next
and finish
bullseye will need some adjustments first
1.make the default box size as 0.2%.or near equivalent.this will cater for intraday data
2.unclick the relative strength .this can be added on later
windows 7 will need to make an adjustment to the timing
here are the changes needed for windows 7
Windows 7
settings. Try to go to the windows Control Panel, by clicking the
start button, then Control panel, then select "change keyboards or
other input methods", then click the "Formats" tab. Under short time
and long time select the appropriate ones. You will see examples at
the bottom of the window.
You can also go to "Additional setting" button in the same screen and
click the "Time" tab. Here you can remove the AM/PM symbols.
you will have to restart your computer
here is the file format set up from dukascopy
now if you want to practice day trading using p/f charts
try loading data from freestockcharts before market opens .do youre own anlysis on bullseye.then go to dukascopy they have free p/f charts for fx.time inputs are just 10sec,1minute,1 hour,daily.these update continuously with live data.then you can update bullseye when you need to see anything that might look interesting.for indices and certain stocks, livecharts.co.uk have free intraday charts/updating live.same thing.10 secs,1 minute
this is a great way of practising,which costs nothing
on the right hand of th chat click on options.then on candle,change it to p/f
cable..gbpusd
a safe haven..gbp is now seen as a safe haven.
hourly data
29 pips by 3 reversal .closed
note long thrust columns from the 1.5805 bottom.some res at 6470 ish..but up we go
you might all think that the euro is a dog..pretty much rangebound since april 18.however,in a minor uptrend now..bounced off support on thursday
hourly data 60 pips box size by 3 reversal
gbpeur
hourly data.a bulish chart.note active vertical count/purple vertical line
cable .gbpusd
daily data
a false breakout.the latest break has not been supported as yet
looking for support on this chart for a swing long
eurusd
gettin ready to pop
spot gold
10 min data
close
looks overcooked to me
$4 box size by 3 reversal
panic stricken investors ran for gold last week thinking it was armageddon...lol
they might be nursing a temporary loss this week
just posting the dow chasrt to explain why
price had made a breakout which was unsupported.the column of "X" did not retrace..just went up.therefore there was no support on this chart. a false breakout..a fake.
.
any bad news and the market tanked
price is just back into support zone while the market has a rethink
trend is down,but it is not a selloff..no break as yet of 10750 support area
10 min data.50 point box size
gold at a possible resistance
$7 by 1 reversal
could break out ,
to which the horizontal box count gives a target of 1905 area
so we had a falkse breakout in gold.the breakout column was unsupported so back into the support area for a rethink.these fakes are easy to pick up
dow..10min data
a new potential false breakout formed..at some point it will need support to move upwards or back into support zone
dow.
previous chart updated
support was found at the previous breakout point...horizontal blue line which showed 11000-11050 area..so before market opene we had this pencilled in as a possible potential support area.previous breakout points/signal areas provide great clues.they do vary according to the box size,even if you use the same data set
also used trendlines/45 degrees and columns to find s/r
so trend is up to 11500 area
could be bumpy as eauropean central bank being quiet for now
happy labor day to all
hey dentist, thanks for all your posts,i read em all,just dont have much knowledge in this area,can you take a look at this and tell me iff those o's are res.....http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$BPSPX,PLUADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!2.0!!2!20]
hey ammo
thanks for the chart..dow overshot the reson mine and i think ur chart..
it was a false break again and made some sweet trades on the way down
dow
update on the price action
50 points by 3 reversal
CLOSE price
the latest column of X"s broke out
..horizontal red line,that is the breakout point.if you see the column of "O"s/downward movement did not appear till friday 2nd september.so nearly all week the breakout was unsupported.now we can see it hit resistance which coincided with a previous support in march/japan tsunami.horizontal blue line
index was vulnerable.these unsupported breaks can tank/big time.the market has no anchor point
price is back into support zone while the market rethinks
dow..another unsupported breakout last monday onwards.soon got taken out thursday and friday.no anchor point for the market to hold on to.so hence back in the main support area
dow .hourly 67 by 3 reversal.friday.a new downside vertical count got activated/staggered vertical lines.look at the latest one.uneless support comes in ,this is looking like a bear market rally
dow;;hourly
on a higher box size
we can see why the market closed at 11020 area.this is neutral territory
last signal was bullish on 30 aug.we can see that there is plenty of resistance in 11300 area/cluster of trendlines for any upmove.so in theory,market closed still bullish from this chart.just happens to be back in the main support area
spot gold
hourly data
coiled up and ready to pop
eurusd.hourly
40 pips box size by 3 reversal
an unsupported break
the breakdown point was 1.4350 are on 1st august ish
this chart will retest the bears at some point
dollar index/daily data
this chart showing a fake/an unsupported break
is this a new trend ? or a rally in a downtrend ??
meaty resistance at 80.00 area
fed meeting/wednesday
spy/15 min data
supports shown if fed dont give qe3..although it could go much lower
res is shown.this will pop if we do get qe3
some talk saying that fed holding back in case of a major crisis in europe
apple..the first u.s. stock i have traded.was short all the bounces last week
aapl/4 hourly data
note the false breakout/unsupported break on 15 sept/a pole and also above prev res at $400
$4 box size by 1 reversal
price has retraced now.this is now not an easy one to short
the breakout point wa $388.so 50% is $404 on this chart.
need to see where support comes in now.between 388-400 area
from my own observations,it seemed to me that as soon as apple started to move downwards,the whole market followed.does that happen often ??
apple is a very bullish stock.so shorts do have to be carefully planned.the fed decision on wednesday obviously helped it along.so as you can see that any move above $400 was unsupported and in resistance.imho
a different chart
2 hourly data..see the triple top break above 388 area
so price gets support in 388-400 area or retraces down to the trendline cluster at 375 area supp zone
price could turn in those areas.so,as i said a difficult one to short now..imho
dow
you should all be able to recognise this
nas 100
15 min data
close12points by 3 reversal
another fake..just dont know where it will pullback.cluster of downtrendlines looks the most obvious
s500..4 hour data
at resistance
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This interactive workshop will cover:
How and why point and figure charts were developed.
Point and figure construction methods and when each method should be used.
Trend lines as a vital part of point and figure analysis.
Establishing accurate price targets with point and figure charts.
Calculating risk/reward ratios and how they can help assess your position.
Using point and figure to measure market breadth and to determine market turning points.
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Live point and figure charting session, including live interactive analysis with the audience.
This workshop is a must for any serious home-based trader or investor.
i am not promoting tthe workshop.just thought if anybody was interested.i cannot make it on that day
anyway,on a different note
here is some stuff from jeremy about using hilo plot for eod data
Point and Figure was originally and still is a charting method to plot trades as they happen. This means that Point and Figure charts were drawn using tick data. When tick data became more difficult to obtain, users of Point and Figure decided to use end-of-day daily data. In order to account for the days range, the high/low method was devised. But there are problems. With daily data you do not know whether the high or low came first, so either the high or the low are used, but never both. This causes quite a few anomolies which is why the close is a better field to use. Furthermore, instead of using daily high/low, it is better to draw a 60 minute, or 5 minute or even a 1 minute chart based on the close at the end of every time frame. At least then the path the price has taken during the day is tracked which is not the case with daily high/low charts.
dow...another fake ??
this upmove seems to have a bit more conviction.the bulls need to be tested.50% zone on the pole is approx 11520 area
ok..so the anomoly/according to Duplessis
say price is moving in a downtrend and it say,spikes upwards at the open,enough to print a 3 box reversal.then the chart will print a 3 box reversal as it was the first move.the stock/fx pair might have got sold off after the spike,but the hilo plot will show a potential reversal as it only plots the first move.this is what i think he means.he has got a valid point on that..imho
Quote from dentist007:
i am not promoting tthe workshop.just thought if anybody was interested.i cannot make it on that day
anyway,on a different note
here is some stuff from jeremy about using hilo plot for eod data
Point and Figure was originally and still is a charting method to plot trades as they happen. This means that Point and Figure charts were drawn using tick data. When tick data became more difficult to obtain, users of Point and Figure decided to use end-of-day daily data. In order to account for the days range, the high/low method was devised. But there are problems. With daily data you do not know whether the high or low came first, so either the high or the low are used, but never both. This causes quite a few anomolies which is why the close is a better field to use. Furthermore, instead of using daily high/low, it is better to draw a 60 minute, or 5 minute or even a 1 minute chart based on the close at the end of every time frame. At least then the path the price has taken during the day is tracked which is not the case with daily high/low charts.
Quote from dentist007:
dow...another fake ??
this upmove seems to have a bit more conviction.the bulls need to be tested.50% zone on the pole is approx 11520 area
s500 hourly data showing the latest breakpout.possibly at resistance.the 50% zone for that pole is 1265 area.so,we might get a test of that area to see if the bulls have the upper hand
[QUOTE]Quote from dentist007:
so far ,very good.been using p/f for 3 years now.
better still,since i have been using holygrail consecutive rule.
this rule has made me more relaxed about my trading and saves me time when looking for trades [/QUOT
I am reading this thread with interest.I think a newbee can become profitable with p and f method.
What is holygrail consecutive rule? Thanks
__________________
A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
S500 index
120 minute data input
4.00 box size by 3 reversal
at the 50% retrace from the move down from 1248...market is waiting for direction
thanks dentist
p anf f
thanks dentist.
__________________
A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
sorry
it was 30 minute data not 120
anyway,if you go to 1 box reversal on that chart,all the s/r areas show up nicely
Quote from dentist007:
holy grail.i have emailed the queen of england asking her to give you a special commendation for that trading rule.consecutive signals.it certainly keeps you out of the chop.bravo
had no reply from her as yet
__________________
A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
osho
well..holygrail uses a rule
say in a consolidation..you need 2 consecutive signals.ie consecutive bullish signals to then consider if there is a possibility of a bullish trade
hope that explains it
spot gold
hourly data from beginning of august. $16 box size
not really doin alot
there is some bullish signs,but lots of res above
cable.gbpusd
hourly data..20 pip box size by 3 reversal
a new trend has started.a shakeout
at supp now after the selloff on friday
reversal or continuation ???? of uptrend
p and f
dentist
thanks for your reply.
I am using QT with IB data. QT does not draw proper p anf charts. and data is only max for ten days.
I feel that p and f can make me profitable and I need correct charts. Any programme which can use IB data or another which will not use IB data,
Thanks
__________________
A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
ow 30 min data
bulls are ready to break the resistance
cable..gbpusd
10 min data..12 pips by 3 reversal
price action on thusday and friday coiled up and we got a triangle that popped after non farm payrolls
then if we look at the same chart...1 box reversal
there is a great signal to go short
the 1 box horizontal count target was hit
eurusd
10 minute dat29 pips by 1 reversal
support areas are shown in green,horizontal lines
resistance ..red horizontal lines
approx 3 weeks of data
you can make a healthy income trading from those pivots
note the failed triple-top.then the breakdown after non farm payrolls
EUR/USD left 0.5% x 3 and on the right 1% x 3
At the 0.5% we see a possible triple bottom break, normally a very nice sell pattern but in this case we see a very long reversal to the upside while this pattern was created. What this means is that we can expect a tripple bottom break but there is a very high probabillity that this will be a false breakout and that we will see a reversal and move to the upside. So to trade this pattern, do not take a triple bottom sell but take an upside reversal trade. Yes, the triple bottom can play out but there is a very low probability, I suggest only to take the fake pattern.
At the 1% we can see that the triple bottom sell patern has played out very nice, you would say that it is time for some more downward proffits and you would expect it to go lower but I think we will spend some more time between the 1.5 and the 1.25 area before we go down. On the 1% we are still in the trade but we look for the 1.295 break if this is not going to happen quick we should take in the proffits and wait for a new trade.
S &P 500 index
30 minute data
4.00 points by 1 reversal..close
care with shorts
a bullish chart.good support at those double trendlines
an update on the chart that was posted last weekend
price broke down from the double trendline support.down to to the next trendline supp area.then a minor rally ,possibly for option expiration last friday
same data..30 min
3.50 by 2 reversal shows price action more clearly
note the res at 1240 area
santa rally needs to break this first
eurusd 120 min data
latest down move has not retraced to 50% level as yet
s500 index
30 min data
2.50 by 3 reversal..close
the latest break from 1240 has not been supported a syet.watch 50% zone at 1255 if the bulls fail
s500 index
30 min resistance
an upside break or a failure at resistance
nfp failed to take it higher
so lets see
eurusd
4 hourly data
28 pips by 1 reversal...close
we can see the nice downtrend since beginning of november
has it made a bottom ????
the latest pole/low...the 50% area is approx 2800 area.
otherwise down we go from 2700 area
thanks dent
eurusd 4 hour data
oversold ???
could be
now...we want to see if eurusd is possibly starting a rally
10 min data
10 pips by 1 reversal
note..there was a trap before nfp.market rallied higher before nfp.then broke after nfp..green line
th last signal was bullish/blue line.a recoilresistance starts at the lowest internal trend line approx 1.2750
so price has to stay above 1.2750 area to mintain some sort of bullish action
imho
s500 index
10 min data
a nice breakout,followed by a tst of 50%/pole zone
500 index
the first sign of trouble will be a test and a break of the blue trendline
30 min data...3 point box size by 1 reversal
Quote from dentist007:
500 index
the first sign of trouble will be a test and a break of the blue trendline
30 min data...3 point box size by 1 reversal
__________________
A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
hey osho
it is all about who is in control....bulls or bears
it is that simple
you just need the duplessis book and the bullseye software,imho...which has now been upgraded to display data in realtime from barchart.com.they have also added the facility to have multiple charts open at the same time..not sure about the new look,which seems to resemble plain excei
in my opinion you need nothing more.it does take some practice
so for $149 plus the book,you are set up
you can practice with real money on fx at $1 a pip on most platforms
data is free from freestockcharts.com,dukascopy,yahoo
Quote from dentist007:
hey osho
it is all about who is in control....bulls or bears
it is that simple
you just need the duplessis book and the bullseye software,imho...which has now been upgraded to display data in realtime from barchart.com.they have also added the facility to have multiple charts open at the same time..not sure about the new look,which seems to resemble plain excei
in my opinion you need nothing more.it does take some practice
so for $149 plus the book,you are set up
you can practice with real money on fx at $1 a pip on most platforms
data is free from freestockcharts.com,dukascopy,yahoo
__________________
A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
osho
my own opinion...read all the book first.make sure you understand it.then practice a bit
the crux being that you are tracking the pice....so does the chart look right ??
how does it co-ordinate with higher and lower box sizes..that is what needs to practised
then just break it down into bullish and bearish parts using 45 degree trendlines
fx brokers that take $1 a pip ...igmarkets,dukascopy,cmsforex,there are many others
incidentally,the new bullseye can take data from ib
s500 index
hourly data..10 points by 1 reversal#euro downgrades have not had too much effect on the index
there is a major supp area 1270-1280.the top two trendlines being close together.if that breaks then 1250 trendline area
nasdaq100 index
hourly data 12 points by 3 reversal
the latest breakout has not pulled back
could be vulnerable
a closer look at the latest break on the nas 100
same box size
1 reversal now
we can see trendline supports and the previous breakout point
Hi Osho
you can trade fx in micro lots.20 cents a pip.a few brokers do these
the one thing with p/f is that you must not be trigger shy
you do need to use bullseye for charting.so that does mean a few mouse clicks to get the data into bullseye...but well worth the extra effort...imho
my own experience is that you will have an edge..how do i know this ??
well i use a couple of chat rooms from time to time and i see what other people are saying who use candlestick and bar charts
so...look at the chart
does it look right ?? if not or you want some confirmation,then adjust the box size or reversal
this is why i prefer duplessis book against the dorsey book.dorsey only talks about 3 box reversal.really for short term trading 1 box reversal is the key...imho
Quote from dentist007:
Hi Osho
you can trade fx in micro lots.20 cents a pip.a few brokers do these
the one thing with p/f is that you must not be trigger shy
you do need to use bullseye for charting.so that does mean a few mouse clicks to get the data into bullseye...but well worth the extra effort...imho
my own experience is that you will have an edge..how do i know this ??
well i use a couple of chat rooms from time to time and i see what other people are saying who use candlestick and bar charts
so...look at the chart
does it look right ?? if not or you want some confirmation,then adjust the box size or reversal
this is why i prefer duplessis book against the dorsey book.dorsey only talks about 3 box reversal.really for short term trading 1 box reversal is the key...imho
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A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
1 box is not right on quotetracker
best to get bullseye..imho
s500 index
30 min data
5.00 points box size by 1 reversal.
close data..chart is from 23 november
a very smooth uptrend...mind you it did not seem like that.i had to keep in the back of my mind an irresitible urge to go short..so just kept to the chart signals,which was buy the dips
s&p 500 index
2 hourly data input
8 point box size by 3 reversal
at this point the latest break looks like another fake.no retrace to find supoort as yet
looking vulnerable now
s&p500 index showing thursday 8 and friday 19 jan scalping opportunities
2 minute data
box size is 0.500 by 2 reversal
hilo plot
buying the dips on both days,but see how w hit a wall of resistance and the nice shorting opportunity from the resistance.then the rally to previous resistance
s&p 500 index
4 day data input.came across this by accident.i thought i had loaded the chart with 4 hour data,instead it was 4 day
struck me as how bullish it was.price has only just broken out of consolidation.a one way ticket upwartds since march 2009
p and f
ON p and f charts I get several signals during the day, Some signals fail. Difficult to know which one will fail. I had read somewhere on this thread that if you take all signals ,you will definitely end up in a loss.
Is there some way I can take all the sinals and be profitable. Or sure way to know which have higher probability to fail ?
Thanks
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A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
s&p 500 index
30 minute data
testing the trendline support area
3 points by 1 reversal
close plot
eurusd..today
price coiled into a triangle and then popped
2 hour data
12 pips by 3 reversal
s&p 500 index
30 minute data
price still holding above that internal trendline
4.50 points by 1 reversal
outlook for eurusd for next week
4 hour data
could be vulnerable to a sell
1.3260 are is coming out as a possible res area
if we go down to 120 minute data
we see the rising trendline as the support for this trend
if we retrace then look at 1.3150 area as supp
if we go up..then pick of the supp areas from the rising trendline.we need to see where and if it breaks down
s&p500 index
30 min data
4.50 by 1 reversal
supports are the green trendlines and some possible res up above/red trendline
non farm payrolls on friday
eurusd
2 hour data
17 pips by 1 reversal
a down move.but no real test of this uptrend as yet
s&p 500 index..some possible clues to be had for non farm payrolls on friday
30 minute data..10 point box size by 1 reversal
the orange trendline should get broken...as it is very steep..momentum might dry up
but we watch the cluster of trendlines in the 1270-1280 area
an update of the eurusd chart
broken trendline and a signal to go short
same box size
changed the reversal to 2
added 45 degree trendlines
so upward trend still holding..just
S&P 500 index still holding supp
eurusd...this morning"s price action
60 minute data
support came in at the previous breakout point
now in congestion area
P&F for Forex trading
Quote from dentist007:
eurusd...this morning"s price action
60 minute data
support came in at the previous breakout point
now in congestion area
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gettin dangerous now
s&p 500 index
hourly
showing the latest upthrust
the 50% zone is the horizontal line/blue 1327 area
cable..gbpusd
2 hour data
a great uptrend tha started on 16 december.this momentum will be difficult to maintain
nfp/yesterday.the trend faltered and it pulled back to trendline support at 5760.probably consolidate now
potential outlook for eurusd for next week
the purple uptrend line looks that it might break
if that area breaks then look for potential supp in these areas
imho
eurusd
4 hour data
support for this uptrend seems to be lying in the 1.3216 area and has not been tested as yet
56 pips by 1 reversal
spx
30 min data
if this latest trend starts to fail look for this area as the first test
we gotta a minor fake last week on eurusd
goinm back into the support zone for a rethink
2 hour data
36 pips by 1 close
and we got the possible fake in the s&p500
if 1340 fails then possible 1320
dollar strength....not yet
but a possible breakdown..too early to tell as yet
audusd..one of the commodity currencies
4 hour data
35 pips by 1 reversal
audusd 4 hour updated chart
1.0640 got tested/major supp on wednesday
price is out of the channel in a consolidation.and no signal as yet to go short
s&p 500
2 hourly data
we can see how the market threw out a fake downward signal on 10 feb
most people calling the market overbought and due a correction
no way..price got bullish and we carried on upwards
new supp area has moved up to 1350
you`ve drawn the trendlines incorrectly.You shoulda connected 'Oes' with 'Oes' and 'Xes' with 'Xes'.That how it works.
cheers!
one box reversal
subjective trendlines should connect up to the right hand side of semi catapults
according to duplessis
nasdaq 100
15 minute data
watching for a possible breakdown
trendline break is at 2570 area
support underneath to
s&p 500 index..hourly data..4 points by 1 reversal..close
the red trendline defines the latest trend intensity.this has not been tested..1360 will be the test of that intense minor uptrend
eurjpy 4 hour
wow what a chart....i missed this one
spx 60 min
uneless we break upwards..uptrend is running out of steam
eurusd hourly
fake completed
price back in the supp zone for a rethink
going into non farm payrolls
a test of this uptrend in 1.3125 area should decide strong or weak dollar
daily data
35 pips box size by 1 close..hilo plot
aussie/usd
15 minute data
plenty of strength in the us dollar
we watch to see if this trendline breaks
s&p 500 index
hourly data
box size is 4.00 points by 3 reversal....hilo plot
coming into a big supp area
cluster of trendlines in the 1340 region
S&P 500 index
3 minute data..box size is 0.5 by 2 reversal.hilo plot
since 1340 supp area called
no reason to go short until late friday,,,faile triple top at 1375
note the green internal trendlines have been taken out
so we watch the blue trendlines as the next supp area
still no real strength in the dollar as yet
aussie usd
4 hour data
30 pips by 3 reversal
close
a major trend support area at 1.0500
and a res /intermed at 1.0740 area need to be sorted
dollar weakness=stocks rise
there is a partial breakdown in aussie..but those higher interest rates and exports to China over there still attractive...imho
test the dollar strength at that trendline cluster
1.0430 area
4 hour data
eurusd
daily
that downtrend is goin to get tested
dentist could you put up your spx chart
yes sir
what time horizon ?
scalp
a bit longer
or a whole day
best is 15 min data
goin to have supper now.it is 7.30 pm UK time
so will post later
look at 15 min...3 pre box size by 1 reversal....close
been following that trendline all week
ammo
here is the 15 min spx chart
here is the 5 min
this is the one i traded off
here is the chart i traded from
5 min data
the last posting is a duplicate
chartupload.com...i have no links to oscar,just that his upload facility is great
now,back to p/f
it is all about trendlines and the placement of trendlines...signals like double-top etc are looked for after you put on the lines
you are quantifying the trend in numeric terms against bar/candlestick trendline is constant change per unit of time
so,if you look to see if the chart looks right...well i cannot really determine if the chart looks right until i have put some trendlines on
1.one box reversal using 45degree or subjective/connecting the right hand side of semi catapults
2.2 and 3 box reversal both subjective and mainly 45 degree trendlines
then you can move around box size and reversal to get the right feel
so,what all the textbooks bar duplessis teach is that signals are the most important,whereas the placement of trendlines is the first point of call
the trendlines are also acting as areas of supp/res.it is where the trend is tested and in most cases correspond to market retracements.
so that is why you see the trendlines on as the only guide on the charts i post
aapl
2 hour data
$4 box siaze by 1 reversal
hilo plot was the best configuration..imho
so,at this point,the trend tset will be at $560..the break of the trendline
if price moves up,then so does the supp area
this looks to be an important trendline..imho
aapl..looking at hourly data
the supp area is more defined.it is based on $600 resistance.if price moves up then so will the res area
a minor supp area is $564-568
that is the area for any minor weakness to show...imho
thanks DOC
10 min data
showing the latest trend
trend supports are at 1400..1392 and 1384 areas
blue lines..45 degree trendlines
there is a horizontal count that goes to 1412 area..so there could be res there
apologies on the last post.the horizontal count i put on should have been 1414,not 1412..so 1414 was a great shorting position
that chart was put on in a hurry as the market opened.so a great long to 1414 and a good short banged in aswell
now back to apple computer..that seems to be driving momentum
hourly aapl chart.i ahve used a 1% box size because of the intense uptrend
now,either we get a break to $632 area...horizontal count
or a failure....spread triple-top/failed signal
NOTE WELL...the position of the trendline...it is very close to the price...so any failure and the market will see this as a break of trend
probably price will go to 580 area supp and consolidate..but break of intense trend and will slowdown.a possible driver for other markets...imho
s&p 500
4 hour data
if there is a breakdown.the trend is supported at the trendline/45 degree
3.00 points by 2 reversal
spx had a great day
15 minute data shows the trend from march 6th
note how we had a good uptrend which went into a sideways move and then a downside move.also a good signal to go short on the break of that uptrend line
see how the downtrend line got broken on friday and a quadruple top break to the upside.friday and today.
1.70 box size by 1 reversal hilo plot
eurusd hourly data
looks pretty bullish
cable..gbpusd
broken out
4 hour data
37 pips by 2 reversal..hilo plot
seems to be definite dollar weakness=stocks up
need to see surusd break
spx
2 hour data
outlook for non farm payrolls
eurusd 10min data
the downtrend that started on 3 rd april looks to be over
so either
continuation of downtrend or support comes in
eurusd update
30 minute data showing the downtrend from 3rd april.this trend took all the stock markets down with it...a stronger dollar
now..we have the beginnings of a new uptrend..no real confirmation as yet
weaker dollar=stronger stocks
6 pips by 1 hilo plot
so what shall we look for in this possible new trend ??
we change the chart to the close plot and we see a cluster of trendlines showing resistance.this is at the 1.3120 area which got tested on nfp..price then fell back.so there we have our potential area major res to this new trend.supports will be minor as it is a brand new trend.they can be picked off using 45 degree or subjective trendlines
price actually did settle at 3088,which was a 50% low pole area .i will show that chart aswell
dollar watching
aussie dollar has much more defined trends
so,there is a potential reversal happening...but there is a stack of resistance overhead
res area is 1.03640-1.0450 area..trendline cluster
audusd ..daily data
35 pips by 1 reversal
care with s&p500 shorts
a supp area at 1370 is looming
4 hour data
ok...so we saw 1370 area be a pretty good supp area,except on monday when it overshot.but market flattened and rallied from that area.the friday close was 1370..bang on
monday open and next week..if Spain troubles persist,then we look to next supp area at 1353. to 1360 .if its really bad news then this wont hold
2 hour data
box size is 11 by 1 reversal
there is res at 1385 area/downtrend line..so that needs to be watched..if it gets near
just remember that the s&p 500 at this point in time is a fake
the latest breakout on this chart has not been supported as yet
if it retraces then 1320 area is the 50% zone
daily data10 points by 3 reversal
a big week comin up for the dollar
audusd daily data.a big res area that should get tested
rba rate decision and monetary policy this week
non farm payrolls and adp employment data
1.0500 area to watch
audusd shows a decent trend..eur and cable are messy charts.imho
should set the tone for dollar crosses
keep an eye on the blue trendline
s&p 500 index
5 minute data
the uptrend started last monday 23 april
2 pts box size by 1 reversal
support for this minor trend is 1388-1390 area
spx 5 minute data
we are still tracking that uptrend
update on the previous chart
same chart..time input
up a box size to 2.50 points
uptrend is still supported..just
Will Buls eye broker accept data feed from IB?
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The breakouts in Market Profile from an existing control area to establish a fresh new 'value area' is a very similar concept.
The great thing about P&F is that you don't need to have this extended price chart on the horizontal axis in order to see where the price breakouts are occurring. P&F is very compact - floor traders used to keep them on trading cards.
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Quote from osho67:
Wil Bulls eye broker accept data feed from IB?
osho
you will need to see if you can export the ib data into a new file
then setup bullseye to read this file
s&p 500 index
2 hour data
flat for some time now
res is well defined
supp is also well defined
however,if we break downwards,the main trend support is underneath/cluster of trendlines
europe is not burnt out as yet
dax..daily data
well...w e saw 6400 area act as major supp on the dax this week
now lets look at the euro
eurusd 2 hour data
10 pips by 3 reversal
1.2970 is the 50% retrace on this chart...uneless we get more downward moves
anyway,,we can see that price coiled before it broke downwards
s&p 500
30 min data
this chart wants to get bullish
spx 15 minute data
watch that trend
here is an excellent chart for defining the trend
45 degree trendlines are red
subjective is purple
60 min
audusd
spx hourly
still no let up in that downtrend
internal trendline has to be taken out to show some sign of strength
facebook ipo came at the worst possible time
here is the spx..1o min data
the downtrend from 1 st may
note that it is in 2 waves
the first was a sudden move
the second is more prolonged and will have to take out that downtrend line with a res area of 1307 ish.if price goes down,so does the res area
no substitute for FACETIME
nose in the charts every minute of every day
never could get hand of P'n'F
agree
facetime is great
no substitute
cable...60 min data
eurusd 60 min
watch for that res area to get taken out
prev chart/cable
data is 10 min
these areas shown must be taken out to show any dollar weakness
hey dentist, what is the point of all this in terms of making actual money. What about entries exits stops and probabilities? How do you make money by what you're doing here??
hi Chikitout
ok.i am posting charts to basically show what to look for with p/f charts.the thread is learning to read price action
so...entries
i usually trade from 1 minute data looking for breakout points
i then look for areas at the opposite side of the breakout to try and enter.to try and keep my stop as tight as possible..if not,i have to enter on the p/f signal
that is it...no more to tell
probabilities...well this is more dependent on market mood...certain days give me good follow thru and some days are not great
the %win is >90%...but that does not mean to say that you make plenty on each trade...some only get a few points,and many have good follow thru
well if your winning pct is 90% with a tight stop, im not even sure what else to say. ill just go away now... good trading to you.
actually...checked back
last 6 months 80% plus
not 90% as i thought
but...you have to think about the fear and greed factor and this can give you many more points sometimes.so there are alot of factors to consider
it is not a system,just a method of charting data
eyes on europe
dax..hourly data
any rally has that res area to take out first
cable
gbpusd
10 min data
3 downtrend waves.the last one may not be complete
eyes on that res area at 1.5540 for non farm payrolls on friday
that res area will move down if price continues down
dax
daily data
no reason to go long as yet
there will be bounces
need to see that downtrend line taken out.if there is a reaction point.ie a correction of this down move we can draw another internal trendline that gets nearer the price action
Quote from dentist007:
actually...checked back
last 6 months 80% plus
not 90% as i thought
but...you have to think about the fear and greed factor and this can give you many more points sometimes.so there are alot of factors to consider
it is not a system,just a method of charting data
hi emotions
good to hear from you
we are sinking here in the uk....
our economy exports quite alot to the eurozone...so people running scared now.hence europe watch is more important now
anyway,we shall forget all our troubles for a few days.we have the diamond jubilee celebrations here so people in a party mood
back to business
s&p 500
people calling out levels for support to come in
we do things differently with p/f
we watch the trend..when the downtrend line gets taken out,then we say that support has come in
here is the spx/hourly
watch the purple trendline
update to that hourly spx chart
we had a reaction point .so now we can place more trendlines nearer the price action.these are the green trendlines.there is the more inetnse downtrend by the first downtrend line.this was drawn connecting the right hand side of the semi=catapult.this is a very intense trend and probably will weaken.the other is the 45 degree trend..the thicker green line
areas to watch on eurusd uptrend
30 min data
Quote from EmotionBigEvel:
Hi Dentist, still around, nice work you are doing!
I can agree that the probabilities for the entries are very high and you can use very very short stops! And it is the only technique I know that keeps you out whipsaws, something traders are often complaining about.
Some patterns have very high probabilities and some have a little smaller probabilities. And you need to know under what conditions a pattern will work and when not. PnF is no holy grail but it can help you a lot. But the most difficult part of all is keeping your emotions in control!
I use PnF for daytrading futures and I'm happy doing it. I use only tick charts, I'm not that big of a fan of minute charts because I will only know after a minute if you should have stepped in or not and your good entry point that PnF gives you can be gone what means higher risc because your entry moves up and your stop keeps at the same place. Same thing to your stop, after a minute you would know if you should have got out of it or not!
__________________
A Candle Loses Nothing By Lighting Another Candle
hi osho
qt is great....but 2 problems
1.hilo method is only available...not close
2. 1 box reversal is not calculated properly..if you are going to trade then you need 1 box reversal
the onl