Forums (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/index.php)
- Eurex Trading (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?forumid=42)
-- The Bund Bobl Schatz Thread (http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=117124)


Posted by youngtrader on 02-08-08 10:09 AM:

The Bund Bobl Schatz Thread

The DAX guys have their "short dax at 7740" . The 30yr bond guys have "anybody else short US 30yr bond" even the wheat traders have the limit up and minneapolis threads. Why can't the eurex fixed income traders have their own little thread as a place to gather and share thoughts?

Anyway first item of business.......spoofer in the schatz this morning? I noticed this morning that somebody is spoofing 10,000 lots on both the bid and offer in the schatz. Did not notice it in the bund or bobl but they were in the schatz all right.

Would be nice to hear some thoughts on this as well as anything else you guys want to say about eurex FI.


YT


Posted by doublechin on 02-08-08 11:33 AM:

Well we followed down on this http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=anApWkUU0xDs worst auction yield since 1977

Then dip bought as attention turned back to this http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...id=aBJBTUw5SVhM adding in a little of the short term steepener unwinds to get things going.

The steepening yesterday was huge hence buxl and bund now leading us back up whilst schatz is being sat on. 2-5-10 fly coming back some too so bobl no longer running the game in relative terms as it was yesterday Yield(DGH)-2*Yeild(DLH)+Yield(DBH). Fundamental changes to economic outlook will always influence th belly of the curve most hence after Trichet yesterday 5yr ran the show.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-08-08 12:44 PM:

Yeah steepening deffinantly seems to be the play today as the schatz is getting a huge bid so far today!

Although we appear to be topping out (schatz) right now and we might retrace a little bit but overall I agree that the steepener is the trade to be in.


Posted by zf trader on 02-08-08 09:46 PM:

Anyone know where I can find good implied vol and stat vol on eurex fixed income products?

Does anyone out there trade spreads against options?


Posted by youngtrader on 02-08-08 11:40 PM:

Well nice day today over all guys. Was up pretty big earlier around 4:30am CST but started to give some away as I got caught up in that triangle congestion shit we had going on from 4:30-7am. From 6-7 is when it started having some false breaks imo and as soon as you went one way it just sucked the $ right out of your pocket. All in all not a bad day though and I was satisfied.

Still im puzzled on the spoofer. He appeared to be most active when I first came in around 3am (I only trade from 3-7 usually). I only seen him in the schatz and he didn't appear to be in the bund or bobl. Was mostly spoofing 10,000 lots on either side of the market but nobody seemed to be leaning on that size. If anything they were hitting him for 2,000 of those lots. I have not been in this market for very long so maybe this isn't news to any of you but I sure havn't seen any spoofing of any size until today. What really suprised me was that it was happening in the schatz (of all markets). I thought if anything it would be in the bund because of the bigger tick size.

Anxious to hear what kind of luck some other traders had today in eurex. Please share because that is what this thread is here for.

Have a great weekend everybody!


YT


Posted by Grant on 02-09-08 12:41 PM:

Doublechin,

As a novice to Eurex bonds, could you explain your equation, please:

Yield(DGH)-2*Yield(DLH)+Yield(DBH)

Does this refer to relative values between bund, bobl and schatz, ie any significant mis-alignment will be corrected via arbitrage?

Although not relevant to bonds, and for what it’s worth, on the Stoxx future any size on the bid at a 1000 or more can be generally ignored (a spoof). I saw 5000 yesterday; any size at a 1000 or more on the ask is probably real around 75% of the time.

Thank you.

Grant.


Posted by zf trader on 02-09-08 09:06 PM:

Okay is there anywhere I could find the delta of the 2/5/10 butterfly in terms of any of the base compents?

For example the "30 day average delta of the fly in shatx terms is .35"


Posted by doublechin on 02-10-08 10:29 PM:


Quote from Grant:

Doublechin,

As a novice to Eurex bonds, could you explain your equation, please:

Yield(DGH)-2*Yield(DLH)+Yield(DBH)

Does this refer to relative values between bund, bobl and schatz, ie any significant mis-alignment will be corrected via arbitrage?

Although not relevant to bonds, and for what it’s worth, on the Stoxx future any size on the bid at a 1000 or more can be generally ignored (a spoof). I saw 5000 yesterday; any size at a 1000 or more on the ask is probably real around 75% of the time.

Thank you.

Grant.



It's just a suggestion for a chart of the 2,5,10 fly on CQG to give an idea of what's happening, I don't trade spreads but find this useful to understand how the bobl is reacting relative to schatz and bund. Quite often when this chart busts a pattern, the bobl which may have been the bund's bitch all day will suddenly take the lead and it's helpful to know not to fade it if you can see why it's moving first and equally to know when it's likely to stop leading, due to previous resistence or congestion in the fly.

It can also indicate if a piece of news is fundamentally shifting the market outlook as the belly leads on such occasions, especially concerning fundamental risks to the economic outlook. If there's a terrorist attack this chart should spike up as paper will load long into the belly of the curve. You can get a similar picture by rebasing the bund bobl shatz and keep them plotting together on the one chart to see where the relative outperformance is. As I say I've never touched spreads so if you want in depth on this rather than an overview picture talk to a spreader.

As for the 10k in schatz they are often just spread orders and if they can get hit on them before one of the other maturities move they'll be good for them, (careful around any bond auctions too the big size clips are genuine and will trade) when rollover comes assume no spoofing but algos sytematically placing and pulling orders relative to the curve, calendar spreads and the cash market too! Don't just assume it's some bloke and his ego, although I admit occasionally it is.

You need to carefully watch the influence of that size being shown in the 2 year on halting movements or getting orders filled on the other maturities. ie if 10000 shatz shown on the offer gets someone to clip down 500 bund it might have been why he did it (or even for a hedge for bund spoof that went wrong and therefore will try to look like a fickle schatz spoofer by flashing it, when really he wants to get hit on the lot, in order to cover the accidental bund exposure - double or triple bluff!!?) and why it is then pulled, all part of the long road of reading the flow.

Spoofs in the american treasuries will definitely be used to get bund fills, you need to watch a lot of markets at once for a long time to see these patterns. It's still tough to find an edge even then but if you only have a bund depth up and attempt to scalp you can fairly surely kiss goodbye to your cash.
Good luck


Posted by youngtrader on 02-11-08 12:28 AM:

doublechin

Excellent post and quite educational! Thanks for the explanation about the spoofs in the schatz. Should be interesting to see if it goes on this week.

My thought heading into this week is that treasuries should take some heat, especially the front end of the curve.

Thoughts?


Posted by youngtrader on 02-11-08 12:35 AM:

Also does anybody know where I can find some free euribor spread charts?

Thanks


Posted by Grant on 02-11-08 05:37 PM:

Doublechin,

Thank you for the excellent reply - certainly taught me a lot.

Good trading,

Grant.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-12-08 02:01 AM:

Coming up on major resistance in schatz. 105.045 seems to be the spot. I think the market is starting to lose some steam. Treasuries imo will be brought down by the front end of the curve. I think if we can break todays lows tomorrow we are set up for a few days of nice selling pressure.


YT


Posted by THEWOOD on 02-13-08 04:25 PM:

you like that move at 15:52 GMT?


Posted by youngtrader on 02-13-08 10:13 PM:


Quote from THEWOOD:

you like that move at 15:52 GMT?




I don't know who this question is focused towards and I apologize if it wasn't aimed toward me.

My trading hours are from around 3am cst-7am cst so I did not see that move in real time but im sure as always some people made a ton and some lost a ton.

Funny how at the time your talking about when we broke out of that trend volume just dropped off in the schatz. Weird? That trend really screwed with me today though. I tried to fade it around 6:40 but we just kept running higher so they got me out for a decent size loss.

Both schatz and bobl had heavy bids underneath them (87-87.5 schatz) but I figured with that trend along with those heavy bids it would be too obvious that there would be plenty of sell stops underneath 87 or so on the schatz. I figured some bigger players would at least try to push for those stops and they were using those big bids to simply sucker in the small players. Well lol that didn't turn out to be the case and we kept uptrending until around 10:00 which is the time your talking about.

Interesting indeed.

Thoughts on today's action in the eurex treasuries?


Posted by youngtrader on 02-13-08 10:57 PM:

Just taking a closer look at today's action in the schatz and from what I can see that last break we had late in the session through 104.87 was a very key break. I think we could test 104.70 very soon (maybe even tomorrow).

The only thing im wondering about like I said was that when we broke we broke on such little volume it was scary! But volume was high around 104.94 so maybe the small volume shouldn't matter so much.

Just my 2 cents


Posted by zf trader on 02-14-08 09:06 AM:

Well I hope you are right. I just sold the put part of my straddle and then sold a future against my long call. It is already at near breakeven hopefully the leg down will make this a good day.


Posted by wiseass on 02-14-08 09:27 AM:

hmm.. what are the chances of it testing 115.60 tonight...


Posted by youngtrader on 02-14-08 09:54 AM:

long schatz at 84. Looking to take profit at 865. Thought we were gonna break lower but we got heavy bids around 83. Im looking for one more trend up in this small uptrend we have going and then I think we will break.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-14-08 10:02 AM:

out at 83.

Starting to break now with heavy offers. Went short at 83


Posted by youngtrader on 02-14-08 10:09 AM:

out 815.

might get a little pop here before heading lower.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-14-08 10:38 AM:

short .825


Posted by youngtrader on 02-14-08 11:43 AM:

added a few more shorts at .835

Average is now .83

Im suprised how well we are holding up here. What a shitty day. Just chopping with very little real moves.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-14-08 11:54 AM:

out at .84

nobody else trading today or what? You guys are probably too busy taking my money this morning huh lol!

Anyway im done for the day. I see no advantage to watching this thing anymore today.


Posted by TsunTzu on 02-14-08 12:17 PM:

Its sloppy trading because Bernanke is talking at 3pm this afternoon.


Quote from youngtrader:

out at .84

nobody else trading today or what? You guys are probably too busy taking my money this morning huh lol!

Anyway im done for the day. I see no advantage to watching this thing anymore today.

__________________
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm"


Posted by youngtrader on 02-14-08 01:19 PM:


Quote from TsunTzu:

Its sloppy trading because Bernanke is talking at 3pm this afternoon.




Yeah I heard he is speaking but honestly what is he going to tell us that we don't already know? Bernanke is worthless in my opinion. He got us into this mess and now he is doing a terrible job getting us out. Just my opinion though.

Big size at .87 on schatz. Just leaning on that size right now. Other than that there have been little or no opportunities this morning.

Come on guys any other thoughts this morning?

TsunTzu

Thanks for the post I appreciate it.


Posted by zf trader on 02-14-08 07:11 PM:

i just covered my short at .75, i still have a long call, hoping to blow it out at a better price at the open


Posted by youngtrader on 02-15-08 12:20 AM:


Quote from zf trader:

i just covered my short at .75, i still have a long call, hoping to blow it out at a better price at the open




Nice job! I think we are headed lower tomorrow on the schatz though. I don't think we will get much of a pop. Treasuries are going to fall hard imo.

Thoughts?.......Come on guys I feel like im talking to a fucking wall here I know there are quite a few bund traders at least that trade intra day. Where are you guys at? What are your thoughts on the market and what are you currently doing?

This is the whole reason for this thread......to have a place for eurex fixed income traders to gather. A place to talk about the market or post your trades, etc. I think it would be awesome if we could get a thread kind of like the es journal going. Where everybody posts their trades and what they think it happening and what their opinion is. That would be really cool guys.

Anyway I think there is more blood to be spilt tomorrow in treasuries.


Posted by zf trader on 02-15-08 03:39 PM:

Looking to sell my call before the weekend

It has been nice to catch most of what I think is a counter trend move. I think we will be headed lower on the schatz on monday.


Posted by MGJ on 02-15-08 04:19 PM:

Anyone got any opinions about the advisability of position-trading the BUXL? Average hold time would be 3-9 months. How's the liquidity, how are the fills? I'm thinking of adding BUXL to my portfolio of markets, which already includes the Bund, BOBL, & Schatz. Tx


Posted by youngtrader on 02-16-08 02:30 PM:


Quote from MGJ:

Anyone got any opinions about the advisability of position-trading the BUXL? Average hold time would be 3-9 months. How's the liquidity, how are the fills? I'm thinking of adding BUXL to my portfolio of markets, which already includes the Bund, BOBL, & Schatz. Tx



You usually don't hear of many people trading the buxl, which imo is not a good sign. I have never watched it before but I hear volume is bad and has not yet taken off yet like with the others.


Posted by MGJ on 02-16-08 10:52 PM:

The average daily volume of the BUXL front-month contract over the past 2-3 years, is about 4000 contracts per day. Not immense, but not zero either. Right in the same ballpark as White Sugar #5 (LIFFE), eMini JGB (SGX), and Dollar Index (NYBOT-FINEX).


Posted by Grant on 02-17-08 12:23 PM:

I don't get this. Maybe someone can explain.

Watching the Bobl on Friday I noticed large sizes (2000 plus) on Time and Sales which didn't go through the book, so to speak, ie no change in bid/ask volume on the DOM. Nothing unusual.

However, this started happening with smaller size, eg 300, and with increasing frequency; they didn't show up as last trade size against price on DOM.

One explanation may there were so many trades going through the DOM couldn't keep up. But it also happened during relatively quiet periods (I also saw the same on the Stoxx future).

What's going on? Why not through the book?

Grant.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-17-08 04:50 PM:


Quote from Grant:

I don't get this. Maybe someone can explain.

Watching the Bobl on Friday I noticed large sizes (2000 plus) on Time and Sales which didn't go through the book, so to speak, ie no change in bid/ask volume on the DOM. Nothing unusual.

However, this started happening with smaller size, eg 300, and with increasing frequency; they didn't show up as last trade size against price on DOM.

One explanation may there were so many trades going through the DOM couldn't keep up. But it also happened during relatively quiet periods (I also saw the same on the Stoxx future).

What's going on? Why not through the book?

Grant.




Grant

Im not for sure exactly what this could be but my best guess is that it is a block trade. I don't know much about block trades other than the cbot is now accepting them for US treasuries.

From what I understand is that block trades do not have to go through the dom and be available for all to see. Instead 2 parties can privately negotiate the terms of the deal and they don't have to report the final transaction right away but I do believe it has to eventually appear on the time and sales.

I don't watch the time and sales, only the DOM but I find what you have said very interesting.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-17-08 06:05 PM:

I don't mean to take anything away from grant's question but can anybody tell me what countries econ news reports to watch?

I currently don't pay any attention to the econ news that comes out. With eurex treasuries it seems like they don't react hardly at all to any econ news that comes from europe and they only react to the US econ news?

So I guess what im getting at here is should I even pay attention to when the econ news comes out from europe? And if I should which countries should I watch? UK, Switzerland, Germany, etc? Which are the most important?

Thanks Guys


Posted by Grant on 02-17-08 07:21 PM:

YT,

The US is significant but also indicators for Germany and Eurozone.

However, there were French figures released Friday (can't remember what) which caused a bit of excitement.

But given the jittery stae of the markets at present, even bad news for Spain or Italy could have broader ramifications for the EU and Germany.

Personally, I think it's unrealistic for a mere mortal to read the figures on release, make an assessment, then take a postion accordingly. The market would have moved on by then.

All I do is make sure I'm aware of the times of the releases, avoid open positions, and be ready to go with the flow if there is a violent reaction.

Here is a good source (this week's calendar won't be published until very late tonight or very early after midnight):

http://www.todayfx.com/calendar.htm...CFVBmMAodVlm1jA

Grant.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-17-08 11:19 PM:

Grant

Thanks for the advice.

Also just to make sure.....eurex is trading tomorrow right? I know the US exchanges are closed due to presidents day but europe is still open tomorrow morning right?

Sorry I should know but thought I would double check.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-18-08 01:42 AM:

Thoughts about tomorrow.......If we can break below 88 with some conviction on the schatz I think that would set the tone for drastically lower trade all day long tomorrow.

However a break above 94 and we could be trading higher tomorrow.

My bias is lower though. Treasuries look weak right now and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

US stocks also look to get a substantial pop pretty quick. So that should put pressure on all fixed income markets.

Thoughts?


Posted by traderx123 on 02-19-08 10:13 PM:

Bund !

Hey ! This is my first post here. I am glad to see a thread for these Eurex markets. Yesterday [Monday] +31 ticks [bund]....Today +59 ticks...[bund].


Posted by youngtrader on 02-19-08 10:53 PM:

Re: Bund !


Quote from traderx123:

Hey ! This is my first post here. I am glad to see a thread for these Eurex markets. Yesterday [Monday] +31 ticks [bund]....Today +59 ticks...[bund].



Good to hear from you! So far this thread hasn't got much attention but hopefully that will change.

Congrats on the nice profits! What kind of trading do you do (scalping off orderbook, longer term day trades, etc)? Also are you only trading the bund or do you also trade the bobl and schatz?

Please post away!!!



Broke major support at .77 in schatz around noon today (cst). However judging from how we closed I think we might get a little action to the upside tomorrow morning but it should be limited and im a seller above .75 tomorrow if we trade up there.

Thoughts?


Posted by SWINGTRADER77 on 02-19-08 11:50 PM:

scalping? in terms of other markets? impossible to do now a days- there are so many huge players and algorithms- u will never get a price u want- technology has changed- humans are simply to slow to arb with other markets.U can sit at a desk all day and 3/4 times a years " hit a beauty" on size hoping the algos will not sense it first. Depends if u can hack the pure boredom sat at a desk all day staring at reuters/bloomberg etc....

The above approach is fine, but does not generate commisions, something which the broking business relies on for revenue.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-20-08 12:55 AM:


Quote from SWINGTRADER77:

scalping? in terms of other markets? impossible to do now a days- there are so many huge players and algorithms- u will never get a price u want- technology has changed- humans are simply to slow to arb with other markets.U can sit at a desk all day and 3/4 times a years " hit a beauty" on size hoping the algos will not sense it first. Depends if u can hack the pure boredom sat at a desk all day staring at reuters/bloomberg etc....

The above approach is fine, but does not generate commisions, something which the broking business relies on for revenue.




I am not talking about spreading or bid/offer scalping.....those types of trading have gone away.....probably for good. Im talking about scalping the market for a few ticks here and there, not really playing for a big piece of the pie and instead playing for little bits.

That is what the majority of my trading consists of. I'm just scalping the market for 3 ticks here and there all day with the occasional big trade (hold overnight and exit the next morning or play for many ticks).

Arbing is no longer feasible with today's markets. There isn't anymore free money out there. You just have to pick a direction and hope to hell your right!!!


Posted by zf trader on 02-20-08 08:09 AM:

Looking to get short schatz at 104.785, as it tends to cover the entire 2-3am range after 3am, against a long call. I took profits on the offsetting put yesterday


Posted by zf trader on 02-20-08 08:17 AM:

Any thoughts on where I should cover? I was thinking a half tick above today's low or 104.705.


Posted by zf trader on 02-20-08 09:30 AM:

Covered at 104.755, looking to re-sell at 104.775. It appears that price has bounce off the 104.750 in the past from both directions. I just got filled at .775. I also think you are more likely to get filled a half ticks, any thoughts?

Young trader I hope this is how you want us to use the thread. Let me know other wise


Posted by youngtrader on 02-20-08 12:12 PM:


Quote from zf trader:

Covered at 104.755, looking to re-sell at 104.775. It appears that price has bounce off the 104.750 in the past from both directions. I just got filled at .775. I also think you are more likely to get filled a half ticks, any thoughts?

Young trader I hope this is how you want us to use the thread. Let me know other wise




Yeah this is exactly how I want people to use this thread. I overslept this morning so I am just now starting up the platform now lol!!!

I will also try to post some of my longer day trades on this journal (to hard for me to post all of my scalps).

Good Trading Everyone!!!


Posted by SWINGTRADER77 on 02-20-08 03:58 PM:

I am not talking about spreading or bid/offer scalping.....those types of trading have gone away.....probably for good. Im talking about scalping the market for a few ticks here and there, not really playing for a big piece of the pie and instead playing for little bits.

That is what the majority of my trading consists of. I'm just scalping the market for 3 ticks here and there all day with the occasional big trade (hold overnight and exit the next morning or play for many ticks).

Arbing is no longer feasible with today's markets. There isn't anymore free money out there. You just have to pick a direction and hope to hell your right!!!

Exactly Youngtrader-thats what I do.Hold positions- I have a risk/reward ratio of 1:3 therefore if i get a trade right 2 times out of 5 i am quids in.

You applying this theory too?


Posted by increasenow on 02-20-08 11:06 PM:

Eurex/Liffe: BIG Bang for your buck-daytrading..oh yea and LIFFE GILT...read...WOW!...read this:

The BOBL easily has more POP against the Schatz and Bund...BUT...the LIFFE Long Gilt has more pop per point than the BOBL...here are the rankings of per tick 'pop' per you buck $$$:

1-LIFFE Long GILT
2-BOBL
3-BUND
4-SCHATZ

you all agree...come on Europe...lets hear from you and also, all around the world!!!!...thanks...


Posted by youngtrader on 02-21-08 02:48 AM:


Quote from SWINGTRADER77:

I am not talking about spreading or bid/offer scalping.....those types of trading have gone away.....probably for good. Im talking about scalping the market for a few ticks here and there, not really playing for a big piece of the pie and instead playing for little bits.

That is what the majority of my trading consists of. I'm just scalping the market for 3 ticks here and there all day with the occasional big trade (hold overnight and exit the next morning or play for many ticks).

Arbing is no longer feasible with today's markets. There isn't anymore free money out there. You just have to pick a direction and hope to hell your right!!!

Exactly Youngtrader-thats what I do.Hold positions- I have a risk/reward ratio of 1:3 therefore if i get a trade right 2 times out of 5 i am quids in.

You applying this theory too?




Yeah I hold some stuff overnight in the schatz. Most of my trading is scalping 3 ticks here and there through out my trading day.

I am trying to start playing for bigger ticks though (trying to make 3 ticks when commision is $4 rt is kinda tough lol). I think a happy medium is in order.


Posted by zf trader on 02-21-08 08:06 AM:

Just sold my long put, with enough profit to cover the cost of the offsetting long call. Looking to buy a put during a retrace of the 2-3am high, likely the same strike 104.6


Posted by traderx123 on 02-21-08 08:13 AM:

+30 ticks in bund for wednesday. Its been a very good week so far ! My method is basically trying to catch trends during the day using "support and resistance" and a couple "ema's", Trying to stay in the trades as long as possible for maximum ticks. Right now I am only trading bund [as far as eurex goes].
My "normal" markets are ER, ZB, ZG. and I trade them with the same methodology. I started to look at the Eurex markets because I am currently living in Ukraine [I am from Las Vegas] so its easy hours to trade bund during my daytime......and then trade my normal markets in afternoon and evening.


Posted by zf trader on 02-21-08 08:30 AM:

Good work on the bund. A few things I have noticed and my or may not hold true anymore

A 50/100 EMA crossover and pull back is often a good guide.

Just like the GBS/GBM, GBL will usually re-trace the whole 2-3am range after 3am

The bund will often "go the wrong way first" and then run after making a new high or low for the day.

The bund is more likely to go down in the after hours than go up.


Posted by cvds16 on 02-21-08 08:41 AM:


Quote from traderx123:

+30 ticks in bund for wednesday. Its been a very good week so far ! My method is basically trying to catch trends during the day using "support and resistance" and a couple "ema's", Trying to stay in the trades as long as possible for maximum ticks. Right now I am only trading bund [as far as eurex goes].
My "normal" markets are ER, ZB, ZG. and I trade them with the same methodology. I started to look at the Eurex markets because I am currently living in Ukraine [I am from Las Vegas] so its easy hours to trade bund during my daytime......and then trade my normal markets in afternoon and evening.


What kind of charts do you use ?


Posted by zf trader on 02-21-08 08:50 AM:

Just bought back the put I sold earlier. My Gamma projection was a little off as I thought it would need to go higher to get a fill, although my fill was relatively far from the ask.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-21-08 02:13 PM:

Size sitting on the offer in schatz. I look for the market to eat through that size and head higher.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-21-08 02:16 PM:

Long @ .465 profit target is .495


Posted by youngtrader on 02-21-08 02:22 PM:

Out at .46 and now leaning on that size. Short at .46 looking for 3 ticks here.


Posted by SWINGTRADER77 on 02-21-08 02:28 PM:

Youngtrader, a question for u-which software/trading platform do u use to gain access to the bund? And any idea of the " ping" times that u are getting?

Cheers


Posted by youngtrader on 02-21-08 02:30 PM:

Out .445


Posted by youngtrader on 02-21-08 02:33 PM:


Quote from SWINGTRADER77:

Youngtrader, a question for u-which software/trading platform do u use to gain access to the bund? And any idea of the " ping" times that u are getting?

Cheers




I am using open e cry as a broker/platform. I can get access to almost every commodity through this platform. Ping? I don't understand sorry. Care to explain?


Im short again at .465 Looking for another 3 ticks or so.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-21-08 02:39 PM:

Out at .45


Posted by youngtrader on 02-21-08 02:47 PM:

Short at .445


Posted by youngtrader on 02-21-08 02:56 PM:

Looks like a trend change coming up in schatz. Adding shorts at .445 and looking to take a bigger chunk of the pie with this trade.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-21-08 02:59 PM:

Wow explosion im out .555!!!


Posted by youngtrader on 02-21-08 03:01 PM:

To much work to talk about every single trade im making sorry lol! Anyway I'm quitting for today, not a bad day, I took some money out of the schatz but not too much......I have a few es shorts I need to watch anyway.

Good Trading Guys.


Posted by traderx123 on 02-21-08 09:41 PM:

+32 ticks today in bund.........to answer a few of the questions I have had.....I am using 5 minute candle charts....from e-signal.......I derive my support and resistance numbers from "daily charts ".........I dont carry any trades overnight. I am aware of many of the "fundamentals"....but my trading is strictly technical.......I dont set any "targets" for trades.......I have specific exit rules that I follow each trade. I will make an effort to display some of my trades for examples . I hope everybody is having a good week !


Posted by youngtrader on 02-21-08 11:47 PM:

Exciting day in the markets everyone!!! I just wish my hours would allow me to trade es full time but sadly they don't lol!

I have resistance up here in the schatz around 59. A solid break through that and im a buyer but if we can't bust through im a seller. 104.73 is next stop with a break above 104.59 while 104.425 is next stop if we hold resistance at 104.59

These are just my thoughts on the schatz.

Any thoughts here or on the bund or bobl?


Posted by zf trader on 02-25-08 10:00 AM:

Well I'm just sitting tight waiting for a new low below 104.400 on the schatz, if I get it I'll put on a straddle. So far today the market feels like it is waiting for something.


Posted by Dogfish on 02-25-08 11:33 AM:

Yeah the IFO's out tomorrow


Posted by youngtrader on 02-25-08 11:49 AM:

Getting chopped the fuck up today in everything. Made some nice money on the flag pattern we had going in both the bund and bobl. Other than that lots of spoofing was going on earlier but its died down a little.

Some size came back in bidding at around .40 though. I think that gets taken out pretty soon.

Im done for the day......just couldn't seem to get anything going.

Dogfish good to see you on this thread man! Would love to hear your thoughts on the market.

Good Trading Guys


Posted by zf trader on 02-25-08 12:30 PM:

i have got my fill on my long put just looking to get long a call to complete the strangle. hopefully we will see 30 points on the on the schatz either way on the ifo numbers


Posted by zf trader on 02-25-08 02:00 PM:

Well sorry guys I kind of lied instead of legging when the future started moving away from me I scalped the the june contract long from 104.800 to 104.830.

I am now waiting for a move on the march above 104.500 to get long or I will try to buy a call near the low of the day.

A move above 104.500 could be a "wrong way first" typical GBL/GBM/GBS move.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-25-08 10:45 PM:


Quote from youngtrader:

Getting chopped the fuck up today in everything. Made some nice money on the flag pattern we had going in both the bund and bobl. Other than that lots of spoofing was going on earlier but its died down a little.

Some size came back in bidding at around .40 though. I think that gets taken out pretty soon.

Im done for the day......just couldn't seem to get anything going.

Dogfish good to see you on this thread man! Would love to hear your thoughts on the market.

Good Trading Guys




Well funny how a bad day can turn into a great one!!!

Getting some major snow and ice here in Iowa so they called school out early and I raced home to try to see what the markets were up to.

Ended up having one of the best days I have ever had today after getting my head handed to me earlier this morning!!!

We are getting rejected pretty hard at 104.50 and I look for us to trade lower tomorrow probably setting 104.37 as a target.

Talk to all of you tomorrow


Posted by youngtrader on 02-25-08 10:47 PM:

By the way I know this is kind of off topic but have any of you ever had experience trading either the sterling or the gilt on liffe? How do you like it? Advantages/Disadvatages?

I think they come across as interesting markets and gilt is a 20 deep book (not sure about sterling)! Plenty of range too in gilt.

I don't even know what the hell they are though to be honest. Some sort of interest rate probably but idk.

Thanks Guys


Posted by zf trader on 02-26-08 04:44 AM:

Well one night I was talking about long gilts with a banker friend of mine and an old farmer overheard and informed me that a gilt is a bred young female pig, basically the swine equivalent to a bred hiefer.

There could be some advantages to trading less crowded debt market like gilt or Canadian bonds. I find I like the fills I get trading currency futures like GBP with a thin order book I get good fills. Often I am able to buy on the bid and sell on the ask. Unlike the schatz where I feel that I have to really let a trend playout, without scalping along the way.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-26-08 12:44 PM:


Quote from zf trader:

Well one night I was talking about long gilts with a banker friend of mine and an old farmer overheard and informed me that a gilt is a bred young female pig, basically the swine equivalent to a bred hiefer.

There could be some advantages to trading less crowded debt market like gilt or Canadian bonds. I find I like the fills I get trading currency futures like GBP with a thin order book I get good fills. Often I am able to buy on the bid and sell on the ask. Unlike the schatz where I feel that I have to really let a trend playout, without scalping along the way.




What did you think I was talking about the futures contract? I am planning on trading bred female hogs. I hear there is a great market for em. LOL

Thanks for the advice. I just think it looks appealing because of the 20 deep book and the nice tick size along with the nice range.

Hope all of you got on at .37 or better as we are trading a nice bit higher than that currently.

God these early morning hours are terrible for the spoofing. Hard to tell whats good and whats not when shit is spoofing all over. It tends to slow down a lot once the US markets open though......I don't know why that would be?

Anyway heads up on the schatz guys. Triangle pattern forming on the 15 min chart and I have this feeling the breakout is gonna be to the downside.

Good Trading Everyone


Posted by zf trader on 02-27-08 09:19 AM:

YT I am right to peg you as a bit of a farm boy too? I am from a dairy farm myself and I like to put my soft hands to work occasionally.

Well on the schatz I am looking for a new low this week still. I have sold my long call leaving me with just a long put. I am under water overall but trading the underlying and calls has paid for about 40% of the premium in my long put so I am in good shape.


Posted by zf trader on 02-27-08 05:15 PM:

well i have changed my mind again I have bought back that call I sold earlier, at a price .04 lower. I just doesn't look like we are going to get a down move today. I am looking to scalp the call for .02 before 1pm, but i don't think it will happen.


Posted by youngtrader on 02-27-08 11:30 PM:

Yeah I am a farm boy. Live on a grain and cattle farm in Iowa.

I think we could continue to trade lower this week also.

Good Trading Man


Posted by zf trader on 02-28-08 10:51 AM:

Well I just sold my long call, getting just above water overall on my strangle. hopefully we can retest the lows before 1pm today around .37


Posted by zf trader on 02-28-08 02:25 PM:

Well what a prick of a thing, looks like the trend might have changed. I might try to put on a fresh straddle at the open tomorrow, especially if we close over 104.64


Posted by SWINGTRADER77 on 03-03-08 02:56 AM:

I am looking to put a " long" on in the bunds if hits 114 handle with a view to holding till 120 handle: 3/1 ratio etc...


Posted by Iceburrg on 03-31-08 06:11 PM:

Staying alive


Quote from SWINGTRADER77:

I am looking to put a " long" on in the bunds if hits 114 handle with a view to holding till 120 handle: 3/1 ratio etc...



...just trying to keep this thread a live. The bund did hit that 114 handle a bit a go. bumpin around to 116 now (during US trading hours). - too bad I do all my trading during Euro market hours.

I'm thinking of slowly increasing my lot size per trade. (Scalping 3-4 ticks) Is there any particular size where you guys have been seeing slippage/liquidity issues (or more than usual)? I see some pretty big sizes going through.. but I don't have cars to throw around like some do.

** I like this thread... lets keep it up like the ES thread!!


Posted by zf trader on 03-31-08 06:42 PM:

Okay I'll do my best.

I'm looking to buy schatz at 104.405. Hopefully ES going up on quarter end will push bonds down generally. I find the schatz will take queues from ES after 3pm eastern.

Hopefully I can scalp out for 3-4 ticks on tomorrows open. I have a long put to limit risk


Posted by Iceburrg on 03-31-08 07:52 PM:

Re: Staying alive


Quote from Iceburrg:

...just trying to keep this thread a live. The bund did hit that 114 handle a bit a go. bumpin around to 116 now (during US trading hours). - too bad I do all my trading during Euro market hours.

I'm thinking of slowly increasing my lot size per trade. (Scalping 3-4 ticks) Is there any particular size where you guys have been seeing slippage/liquidity issues (or more than usual)? I see some pretty big sizes going through.. but I don't have cars to throw around like some do.

** I like this thread... lets keep it up like the ES thread!!



Oh, just to clarify, (I'm asking about the BUND on the slippage/liquidity issue.)


Posted by zf trader on 04-01-08 07:00 PM:

Well I bought schatz at 3:15am eastern at 104.435, looking for 104.495.

I think we are still in the range so hopefully I can hold and get the top of the range before my put expires


Posted by Iceburrg on 04-02-08 12:27 PM:

Scalping my way


Quote from zf trader:

Well I bought schatz at 3:15am eastern at 104.435, looking for 104.495.

I think we are still in the range so hopefully I can hold and get the top of the range before my put expires



.. A few good trades today. Just scalping my way through some of this choppyness (EDJSTX). I could have done better if I didn't chase a few trades. got over confident on some of these moves. I'm gonna call it a night (morning). Time to head off to work.


Posted by zf trader on 04-03-08 11:54 PM:

Well I'm still long a synthetic call, I have made a few adjustments at the wiggle during the open.

What does everyone thing the odds are that this schatz will get back up to 104.500 tomorrow? It is still with in the range or am I just hoping and not really playing the odds?


Posted by Iceburrg on 04-04-08 03:37 PM:

not my day

The Stoxx chopped me up today. I couldn't really catch a decent trend, and I kept getting stopped out. Was at a small loss for the day. These days are expected though. We will see next week.

** I got a bad fill on one trade today and I ended up missing my profit target on that trade by 1 tick... ended up getting stopped out for a loss. I would have been up a few ticks if that one had hit...


Posted by 15xtrader on 04-04-08 04:28 PM:

Re: not my day


Quote from Iceburrg:



** I got a bad fill on one trade today and I ended up missing my profit target on that trade by 1 tick... ended up getting stopped out for a loss. I would have been up a few ticks if that one had hit...



Bit of bad luck that


Posted by Iceburrg on 04-04-08 05:58 PM:

Re: Re: not my day


Quote from 15xtrader:

Bit of bad luck that



Lets hope this bad luck stops here. I don't like heading into the weekend on a bad note. Oh well... no bottles of premium alcohol this week.


Posted by Iceburrg on 04-07-08 02:58 PM:

Good start...

Called it a day.. and it started good with a nice little up-ward push in the early hours. I did get caught "looking" for a trend at one point when the Stoxx was just choppin around between 3755 - 3750. That gave me a chance to glance over at the DAX while waiting for a set-up. I'm starting to like the DAX, but I have yet to trade it. - Good trading


Posted by SWINGTRADER77 on 04-08-08 05:30 AM:

The problem with eurex futures now is " readng the tape" with algos's etc..the book is very hard to read- tick for tick- i have adopted a 3/1 ratio-unless some fundamental news hits the screen- in which case smash it for all you can


Posted by Iceburrg on 04-08-08 02:50 PM:

missing out


Quote from SWINGTRADER77:

The problem with eurex futures now is " readng the tape" with algos's etc..the book is very hard to read- tick for tick- i have adopted a 3/1 ratio-unless some fundamental news hits the screen- in which case smash it for all you can



I highly agree.. my method relies on me being absolutely correct on the direction of the move. Strength and direction get me into a trade. I try not to get deceived by what I see in the book But those nerds do get me sometimes.
I actually missed out on trading today due to the NCAA basketball championship. I skipped my normal sleep time to watch this fantastic game. But I had to sleep through my available trading hours


Posted by youngtrader on 04-09-08 11:00 AM:

Haven't posted on here in a while.

Short a few schatz at 104.31 this morning. Looking pretty toppy here and bund is weak.


Posted by youngtrader on 04-09-08 11:02 AM:

also about eurex markets being impossible to trade off of the orderbook......that is incorrect. All of my trades are based on the orderbook and I do quite well each and every day scalping for a few ticks here and there.


Posted by youngtrader on 04-09-08 11:30 AM:

covered my shorts at 29.5


Posted by youngtrader on 04-09-08 11:49 AM:

long 27.5

target around 30


Posted by youngtrader on 04-09-08 11:58 AM:

bought more at 23.5 average now is 25.5


Posted by youngtrader on 04-09-08 12:00 PM:

out for loss at 23.5


Posted by youngtrader on 04-09-08 12:03 PM:

short at 23

target 19


Posted by youngtrader on 04-09-08 12:10 PM:

out at 21.5


Posted by youngtrader on 04-09-08 12:24 PM:

short 23.5


Posted by youngtrader on 04-09-08 12:26 PM:

covered 21.5


Posted by youngtrader on 04-09-08 12:42 PM:

Well im just about done for the day. All in all not too bad of a day....I took some money out of the market so I can't complain too much.

As for where I think schatz is headed for the rest of the day....I would want to be a seller around 26 and a buyer around 21. Those are 2 good levels for a quick scalp as of right now (things can change though).

Well off to school


Posted by zf trader on 04-09-08 06:20 PM:

Pretty wild stuff there YT. I find scalping schatz pretty difficult between 3am and 1pm eastern. During the other times, the not so regular hours, there are opportunities that I can see.

Any how at 1pm to I made a few scalps between 104.395 and .375. Hoping to make a few more in that range before 4pm.


Posted by Iceburrg on 04-09-08 10:44 PM:


Quote from youngtrader:

also about eurex markets being impossible to trade off of the orderbook......that is incorrect. All of my trades are based on the orderbook and I do quite well each and every day scalping for a few ticks here and there.



Well I should re-phrase my post to say that it is impossible for me (at this time) to trade the eurex just off the order book only. I have been trying to key in on the order book to get a realistic feel for best entry and exits.

I believe Youngtrader has figured it out I'm still working on it. I may have to find a way to bribe youngtrader to enlighten me with his insight on reading to book.

Well the US market is closed now.. time to head home and get some sleep before the Euro market wakes up...


Posted by youngtrader on 04-10-08 03:24 AM:


Quote from Iceburrg:

Well I should re-phrase my post to say that it is impossible for me (at this time) to trade the eurex just off the order book only. I have been trying to key in on the order book to get a realistic feel for best entry and exits.

I believe Youngtrader has figured it out I'm still working on it. I may have to find a way to bribe youngtrader to enlighten me with his insight on reading to book.

Well the US market is closed now.. time to head home and get some sleep before the Euro market wakes up...



Iceburrg

Im not sure how much help I can give you with reading orderflow (its one of those things that you just kind of get a feel for after watching the market so long). I wrote a little bit about it on ET not too long ago in the stratagy section. I will try to find it and repost it here if I get time. It should help get you started at least.

Talk to you guys tomorrow


Posted by zf trader on 04-10-08 06:15 PM:

Well so far today I have sold at 104.395, bought back at 104.365, sold again at .395, bought back at .375, and I have an order in to sell at .395.

Just to recap, 3 weeks ago I bought both a 104.40 call and put. The schatz went up so I sold the call at a profit. I then bought a future on a pullback. I have since been scalping the future against the long put at the open and the 1-4pm time frame. My scalping paid for the option premium a while ago and there 4 whole trading days left


Posted by youngtrader on 04-10-08 09:58 PM:

Sorry for not posting on here this morning guys. I forgot to set my alarm and overslept lol!

Talk to you all tomorrow


Posted by youngtrader on 04-11-08 09:14 AM:

short 35.5

target around 29.5 if I can get it


Posted by youngtrader on 04-11-08 09:24 AM:

market doesn't seem to be breaking like I thought. They are selling into that 35.5 bid but there is still plenty willing to pick up some schatz at that level.

I might try to scratch this trade if I see anymore support here


Posted by youngtrader on 04-11-08 09:40 AM:

decided to just scratch the trade. Im now bid at 35.5


Posted by youngtrader on 04-11-08 09:45 AM:

bought some at 36

still bidding 35.5 also


Posted by youngtrader on 04-11-08 09:49 AM:

38.5 first key level then 39.5 then 43.5

these are all levels I will be looking for weakness at


Posted by youngtrader on 04-11-08 10:04 AM:

bought more at 36.5


Posted by youngtrader on 04-11-08 10:19 AM:

bought even more at 36

Like one of the local traders in the sterling pit at liffe said "I love a bit of size"


Posted by youngtrader on 04-11-08 10:38 AM:

Talk about a dull day. I normally would have made tons of trades by now but instead I have only made 2 trades!

Big resistance broke in bund (seems to be holding its bid too). I expect schatz to start to catch a bid also.

average long position is at 36


Posted by youngtrader on 04-11-08 10:58 AM:

bought more at 34.5


Posted by youngtrader on 04-11-08 11:01 AM:

out at 32.5


That Hurt!!!


Posted by youngtrader on 04-11-08 11:02 AM:

short 32.5


Posted by youngtrader on 04-11-08 11:26 AM:

out at 32.5


Posted by SWINGTRADER77 on 04-28-08 01:29 PM:

Hi all,

Any particular reasons why the Eurex fixed income futures volumes are well down.I know this week has a few important economic releases( markets possibly waiting etc..), but generally I have found that the volumes are relatively low( especially Bund/Bobl ).Any ideas why this is the case?


Posted by SWINGTRADER77 on 05-02-08 03:58 PM:

Only 850,000 bunds traded by 17.00 CET.!!??on a pay-rolls day- wtf????


Posted by KS96 on 05-05-08 06:37 AM:

bots are out of batteries


Posted by Canados on 07-12-08 02:41 PM:

Hi,
I would like to speak about bund, bobl and shatz correlations...who follows who?

I know that this markets are influenced by dax and US 10-year bond


Posted by AMP_Trading on 09-10-08 05:57 PM:

Announcing today live streaming data from EUREX integrated with the Zen-Fire trading engine. The significance of this level of connectivity being available to the retail trading market is enormous. Customers seeking low latency and high speed trading can request a real time trading simulator from the AMP Trading site: http://www.ampfutures.com/ninja_trader.php

“Streaming market data will finally allow traders to see the true volatility and opportunities in the Eurex markets.

Enhanced Broadcast Solution (EBS)
The new data feed EBS offers an innovative high-performance market data broadcast solution for un-netted public market data. The socket-based distribution mechanism features among others an order book depth of 10 for options (previously only inside market data was provided), an enhancement of order Book depth to 20 for benchmark futures (previously 10) and a new subscription model, allowing members to select individual market data of all product groups relevant for their business. Along with the launch of EBS, the new data feed CEF ultra+ of Deutsche Börse Market Data & Analytics was started. CEF ultra+ contains the same market depth as EBS but distributes Eurex trading data to non-Eurex members like data vendors also with lowest latency. It is enriched by a trade recovery functionality which is necessary for data vendors.

AMP Trading is a premier Ninja Trader brokerage firm. We are pleased to offer the NinjaTrader platform powered by Zen-Fire, Trading Technologies and Ninja FX. Our support team is fully Ninja trained and eager to support you reach your trading goals. Call us today toll free 800-560-1640 / Int’l 001* 312-893-6400 and ask for “Mirek” for your “EliteTrader Special Rate” or register at http://www.ampfutures.com/EliteTrader.html


Posted by AgeKay on 09-10-08 06:40 PM:

Does that also mean that Zen-Fire have fixed the trade size bug on Eurex where it always showed 99 contracts on each trade?


Posted by reneclemens on 09-10-08 08:47 PM:

That's correct. Eurex EBS on Zen-Fire offers last trade size and unfiltered streaming data.


Posted by Mirus Futures on 09-10-08 08:50 PM:

Yes, Zen-Fire now shows last traded size on Eurex and it's unfiltered streaming data. Try it here: http://www.mirusfutures.com/landing...r_eurex_ebs.htm

__________________
Mirus Futures
www.mirusfutures.com
312-423-2230


Posted by BoyBrutus on 10-13-08 12:58 PM:


Quote from Mirus Futures:

Yes, Zen-Fire now shows last traded size on Eurex and it's unfiltered streaming data. Try it here: http://www.mirusfutures.com/landing...r_eurex_ebs.htm



Hi Mirus

I was comparing your time and sale Fdax data with my esignal feed and it seems your prints at bid or below, at ask or above, or in between are not always correct.

Sometimes it seems the bid and ask is faster to update than the actual trade so a sell bid print appears to execute on the ask.

Sometimes it seems its just out of sync, with say at ask and above prints shown executing in between the bid/ask.

Actual volume data seems to be correct though.

Can you please pass this on to your tech staff, thanks


Posted by ganesh6 on 12-12-08 06:50 PM:

Hi Youngtrader, I see you are not posting your trades anymore ???




Quote from youngtrader:

covered 21.5


Posted by youngtrader on 12-12-08 10:35 PM:


Quote from ganesh6:

Hi Youngtrader, I see you are not posting your trades anymore ???



Still trading and do quite well......most of my trades are extremely fast scalps based on the orderbook and are really too fast for me to post about....plus my trades are so quick and for so little that usually there is no value in posting........also i am just not on et as much as I used to be (maybe im growing up )


Posted by veggen on 01-17-09 01:21 PM:


Quote from youngtrader:

Iceburrg

Im not sure how much help I can give you with reading orderflow (its one of those things that you just kind of get a feel for after watching the market so long). I wrote a little bit about it on ET not too long ago in the stratagy section. I will try to find it and repost it here if I get time. It should help get you started at least.

Talk to you guys tomorrow



Have anybody seen this post?

I know youngrader is moving to Chicago to trade for a prop firm, but hope he still finds some time to visit ET!

Do you still scalp of the book? Do you ever trade the schatz any more?

Hoping to hear more from you!

veggen


All times are GMT. The time now is 06:41 AM.

Copyright © 2012 Elite Trader.