Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs

Discussion in 'Forex' started by Ituglobal, Jan 11, 2014.

  1. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (January 13 – 17, 2014)

    Next week, the markets are expected to keep on going contrary to the dominant biases. As expected, there have already been breakouts from the current equilibrium phases that are seen in some cases. As the breakouts are being expected, it would also be helpful to watch what volume is doing. Experienced traders know that volume is an important factor behind prices. But it is amazing that most traders do not pay attention to it.

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This pair was trading largely sideways until there was a bullish breakout in the market. The breakout, though a serious threat to the extant bearish bias, has not really rendered it useless. The price has closed above the support line of 1.3650, but it would need to close above the resistance line of 1.3700 before it can be said that the bearish bias is over and the trend has turned bullish. Otherwise, the current price action would simply be an opportunity to sell another rally.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This pair was trading largely sideways until there was a bearish breakout in the market. The breakout, though a serious threat to the extant bullish bias, has not really rendered it useless. The price has closed below the resistance level of 0.9050, but it would need to close below the support level of 0.9000 before it can be said that the bullish bias is over and the trend has turned bearish. Otherwise, the current price action would simply be an opportunity to buy another dip in the price.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    Oddly enough, this pair, which is supposed to be in a positive correlation agreement with its EURUSD counterpart, is in a negative correlation with it. This kind of phenomenon sometimes happens before the law of positive correlation comes into effect again. Right now, the trend in the market is bullish and it may be possible for the price to reach the accumulation territory at 1.6600, unless it would go into a negative correlation with the EURUSD.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    For a few weeks, this currency trading instrument has been having difficulties in trading significantly higher. The trend is bullish, but it seems that the near supply zones are becoming too formidable for the bulls. The greatest barrier is at the supply level of 105.50, and should the bulls find it impossible to breach that level to the upside next week, this would be beginning of a long-term southward journey in the market. With that, we would prefer to sell rallies.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This cross has already been bearish and the bulls are unable to even push the price beyond the supply zone at 143.00 (though that zone has been tested several times recently). There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and the price could fall further seriously from here – certain JPY pairs have done that.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “Trading is serious business and you must be prepared with the best that you have in order to do battle in the trading trenches.” – Dr. Woody Johnson

    Source: www.tallinex.com
     
  2. imagine that, eur/usd is bearish and usd/chf is bullish

    takes a genius to come up with this kind of stuff
     
  3. hey itu, can I ask you a simple question?

    do you know what a "peg" is?

    if not, I'll give you a hint

    1.23
     
  4. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (January 20 – 24, 2014)

    For a few weeks, the EURJPY has been experiencing limited bullish energy. Since the overall bias is bearish, it looks sensible to seek ways to go short when the price rallies, at least, to make allowances for the huge upswings and downswings in the price, as it occasionally happens. The price has been moving sideways for some time, and it would soon experience a renewed momentum in favor of the extant bias.

    What would then happen if there is a renewed momentum while the price stays in an equilibrium phase, going possibly downwards? The agreement between the bulls and the bears would eventually result in wonderment, then inaction, at times worry. The worry can then result in a mad rush, which would cause increased selling pressure, thus driving the price further south.

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This pair has remained bearish since the beginning of this year, although certain bullish attempts in the market nearly rendered the bias invalid at some time. The price is currently in an equilibrium phase, but there would soon be a breakout in the favor of the sellers. The support line at 1.3550 stands a chance of being breached to the downside. This support line was tested last week, and thus could be tested again.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This pair has remained bullish since the beginning of this year, although certain bearish attempts in the market nearly rendered the bias invalid at some time. The price is currently in an equilibrium phase, but there would soon be a breakout in the favor of the buyers. The resistance level at 0.9100 stands a chance of being breached to the upside. This resistance level was tested several times this week and last week, and thus could be tested again.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Slowly and steadily (sometimes with significant but short-term rallies) the Cable is moving downwards. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the price could reach the accumulation territories at 1.6300 and 1.6250 within the next several days, especially in the face of the extant bearish bias. Meanwhile the distribution territories at 1.6400 and 1.6500 serve as major hurdles to possible bullish attempts.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The situation on this currency trading instrument is rather tricky, and would require some patience. For a few weeks, it is clear that the bulls are having limited power here; and at the same time, the price has not been able to go downwards protractedly. Effective barriers to the buyers’ interest exist at the supply levels of 105.00 and 105.50. We are watching the demand levels at 103.00, which should be reached when the market plunges further.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    For a few weeks, the EURJPY has been experiencing limited bullish energy. Since the overall bias is bearish, it looks sensible to seek ways to go short when the price rallies, at least, to make allowances for the huge upswings and downswings in the price, as it occasionally happens. The price has been moving sideways for some time, and it would soon experience a renewed momentum in favor of the extant bias.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “If you know how to read price on a chart, you will understand how to recognize the true footprints of the major market players, mainly the institutions.” – Sam Evans

    Source: www.tallinex.com
     
  5. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (January 27 – 21, 2014)

    There have been interesting developments in the markets as currency trading instruments experience significant reversals. For example, the EURJPY was able to break out in the direction of the bears, after some protracted consolidation phase. The price went below the supply zone of 140.00, and it is expected to continue going down further.

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    In an effort to become positively correlated with the GBPUSD, this pair has gone seriously bullish. From the support area of 1.3550, the price shot upwards by over 150 pips. Soon, the price would be trading above the resistance line at 1.3700 (which is currently being challenged). The ultimate target for the week is at the resistance line of 1.3800. Meanwhile, the support line at 1.3600 should act as a hurdle to the bears’ threats.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on this pair, as a result of the sudden weakness in the USD that started recently. The indicators on the chart show this, plus the fact that the price has tested the support level of 0.8900 before bouncing upwards. The upwards bounce should be something temporary, because the price is going to test that support level again and again; until it finally breaks it to the downside. The next target is at the support level at 0.8850.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The Cable moved upwards recently by about 250 pips, topped at the distribution territory of 1.6650, before the price nosedived. The price is now trading below the distribution territory of 1.6500, although the bullish bias is still valid in the market. There are mixed signals on the chart in that the current bearish threats are formidable; but as long as the price stays above the 1.6400, the bullish bias is a valid thing.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Before the present bearish reversal in this market, it was going upwards in a limited manner. Now the price has plummeted seriously, testing the demand level at 102.00. That demand level would definitely be tested again, especially in the face of the extant selling pressure in the market. Once the demand level is again tested and broken to the downside, the next target in the market would be the demand level at 101.00.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    There have been interesting developments in the markets as currency trading instruments experience significant reversals. For example, the EURJPY was able to break out in the direction of the bears, after some protracted consolidation phase. The price went below the supply zone of 140.00, and it is expected to continue going down further. The supply zone at 142.00 would act as a barrier to any bullish possibility. It is a normal thing to be caught by sudden fundamentals. Therefore, one would need to capitalize on the impact caused by the fundamental, no matter the direction of the price.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “There’s only one way to make money trading, and that is testing, testing, testing… Take a trading strategy or a trading idea, and test it rigorously. And sometimes you’ll be surprised by the outcome…” - Markus Heitkoetter

    Source: www.tallinex.com
     
  6. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 3 - 7, 2014)

    The new lease of energy in the Greenback has resulted in the weakness of the EURUSD and the strength of the USDCHF. The also has had impact on other major pairs, resulting in near violation of major biases in certain cases. The continuous strength in the Greenback could spur on the weakness of the EURUSD and the strength of the USDCHF; otherwise things may change.

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Until recently, this pair was making attempts to trade northward, before it was affected by the strength in the Greenback (coupled with the fact that the Euro itself is weak). There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, and the price is expected to continue trading southward for as long as the Bearish Confirmation Pattern is valid. The price could thus reach the support line at 1.3500.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The new lease of energy in the Greenback has resulted in the weakness of the EURUSD and the strength of the USDCHF. The also has had impact on other major pairs, resulting near violation of major biases in certain cases. The continuous strength in the Greenback could spur on the weakness of the EURUSD and the strength of the USDCHF; otherwise things may change. The USDCHF must stay above the support level at 0.9000, for the current bullish bias to be valid.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The former bearish bias on this market was put in jeopardy as a result of the exponential weakness in the Cable. The new ‘sell’ signal in the chart has been confirmed and the price could go on towards the accumulation territories at 1.6450 and 1.6400 consecutively, especially in the face of perpetual weakness in the Cable. Meanwhile, the distribution territories at 1.6550 and 1.6600 would act as hurdles to bullish threats.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    There are serious upswings and downswings on this currency trading instrument, but the bearish outlook on it remains unchanged. The demand level at 102.00 was tested last week and this week upwards from that level – with limited rallies – and it has often come back to the level. For the bearish outlook to remain more sensible, that demand level must be breached to the downside, while the price goes further towards another demand level at 101.50.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    This cross has been weak since the beginning of this year and the price has dropped by over 450 pips. This week has also been bearish and next week would be like that. The USD seems to be having some stamina and the EUR is showcasing a sign of perpetual weakness, as the price goes below the supply zone at 139.00. It now heads towards the demand zone 138.00.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “Seasoned traders report that they make the most profits when they aren't expecting them. They observe the markets openly and freely, and suddenly they make a profitable trade.” – Joe Ross
     
  7. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 10 - 14, 2014)

    There have been significant reversals that threaten the major biases in the markets. However, for the reversals to be confirmed as established biases, they would need to hold out for a few more days; otherwise they would be termed as transitory breakouts.

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Following the latest bullish breakout in this market, the bearish bias is almost over. There have been significant reversals that threaten the major biases in the markets. However, for the reversals to be confirmed as established biases, they would need to hold out for a few more days; otherwise they would be termed as transitory breakouts. It is not sensible to quickly assume this is a bull market: the price would need to go above the resistance line at 1.3600, and hold itself above it constantly before the bias can be termed bullish.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Could this pair be going in positive correlation with the EURUSD? This is not a surprise for it happens sometimes. The new bearish outlook in the market should be taken with caution, for it would not really be confirmed until the price maintains its stance below the support level at 0.9000. In the charts, it takes time for Bullish and Bearish Confirmation Patterns to be formed or get violated. In the process, one may stay away from the market when there are mixed signals in the chart, until there is a confirmed directional movement.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    There is a drop and a consolidation phase on the Cable – something which is still extant. The bearish outlook on the market is still very much clear, irrespective of the relatively weak bullish attempts in the market. There is no conspicuous breakout in the market; thus the bullish attempts could be halted at 1.6350, as the price falls further.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    On this currency trading instrument the supply level at 102.50 should act as a serious hurdle to the current bulls’ machination, unless the price succeeds in breaching that supply level to the upside, closing above it and remaining above it. Without this condition being fulfilled, the price could drop before reaching the aforementioned supply level.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    There is a violent threat to the dominant bearish bias which could lead to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern when the price goes above the supply zone at 139.00. The failure of the price to do this could result in another leg down in the price. Until there is a more conspicuous direction in the market, it would be nice to refrain from taking a position.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “Multiple markets continue to offer plenty of opportunities to prepared traders. The keys are awareness, preparation, and execution.” – DR. Van K. Tharp
     
  8. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 17 - 21, 2014)

    The reversals that started recently have succeeded in establishing themselves as new biases. The new biases are supposed to continue.


    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The reversals that started recently have succeeded in establishing themselves as new biases. The new biases are supposed to continue. Since a bullish signal formed in this market, there has been one significant pullback that nearly saw the loss of over 100 pips. However, the bullish outlook is not yet over and the price has been making attempts to recover its losses. With a continuation of the buying pressure, the price could reach the resistance line at 1.3750.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Since a bearish signal formed in this market, there has been one significant rally that nearly saw a gain of close to 100 pips. However, the bearish outlook is not yet over and the price has been making attempts to go further south. With a continuation of the selling pressure, the price could reach the support level at 0.8900. It is also probable that the price may reach another support level at 0.8850 this month.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    With an upward move of over 250 pips from the accumulation territory of 1.6400, the Cable has trended northward in a significant manner. The price territory at 1.6650 was challenged and has been overcome, as the Cable goes toward the next distribution territory at 1.6750. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart ensures that the bulls are in the right direction as long as the price does not retrace southward toward the accumulation territory at 1.6500.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    Despite being bullish, the USDJPY has been consolidating to the downside. The present bearish threats in the market are considered to be bogus, except the price could cross the demand level at 101.00 to the downside and maintain its movement below it. Unless this condition happens, there could soon be a northward breakout in the market, and the price could go on towards the supply level at 104.00 within the next several days.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This cross is a strong market but it has not gone upwards very significantly. Nevertheless, the bullish bias in the market is still valid and the market should be able to maintain its presence above the price zone of 140.00. Since the indicators in the market show that the bulls reign, it is possible for the cross to reach the supply zones at 141.00 and 141.50 respectively. Any possible pullback along the way could then be halted at the demand zone of 139.00.
     
  9. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (February 24 - 28, 2014)

    Here’s the market outlook for this week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The outlook on this pair remains bullish unless the price crosses the support line at 1.3650 to the downside. Right now, the price action looks like a clean opportunity to buy long when there is a dip in the price and in the context of an uptrend. Should the price reverse to the upside, it would target the resistance lines at 1.3750 and 1.3800 respectively. It may even be possible for the market to go beyond the target next week or next month.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The bias on this pair remains southward unless the price goes above the resistance level at 0.8950. The current price action in the market proffers the chance to sell short when the price rallies in the context of a bearish market. When the price goes further south (as it is expected), it may challenge the support levels at 0.8850 and 0.8800. There is even a possibility that the price may overcome those support levels and go further southward.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    Between February 10 to February 14, the Cable moved upwards by over 410 pips. That was a significant bullish movement indeed! The price slashed through the accumulation territory at 1.6800, but it did not close above it. Since February 17, the Cable has retraced southward by close to 170 pips; yet the bullish outlook is still valid (though seriously threatened). As long as the price is able to stay above the accumulation territory at 1.6550, it would be assumed that it could be given a new lease of stamina.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    This market has been choppy for more than 2 weeks, but the bulls have been able to refuse a total domination by the bears. In spite of the choppy situation, there are still short-term trading opportunities here; and therefore, short-term strategies are recommended. Any probable bullish breakout could take the price above the supply levels of 103.00 and 103.50. Then, the demand level at 102.00 could act as an immediate hurdle to possible southward pulls.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    Since last week, the EUR/JPY has been a bullish market. However, the bullish movement has been limited because of some occasional surges of strength in the Yen. Given the Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, the price could target the supply zone at 141.50; and should that zone be overcome, the price could then go towards another supply zone at 142.00.

    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “In trading, it's not whether you win or lose, but how much you profit on a winning trade compared with how much you lose on a losing trade. If you can cut your losses and move on, you'll survive. It makes sense, logically, but psychologically, many traders have trouble cutting their losses.” – Joe Ross
     
  10. Weekly Trading Forecasts on Major Pairs (March 3 – 7, 2014)

    Here’s the market outlook for this week:

    EURUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The recently precarious bullish bias on this pair is now established – as a result of a new lease of stamina in the Euro. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart remains fresh and the price still has more room to move northward. The next target in the market is at the resistance line of 1.3850. Meanwhile, the support line at 1.3700 remains a barrier to possible bearish attempts along the way. As long as the price stays above the aforementioned support line, the bullish outlook is intact.

    USDCHF
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    Our last target in this market has been exceeded after much hesitation in the market. The price is currently trading below the resistance level at 0.8850, going towards the support level at 0.8800. The ultimate target is at the support level at 0.7850, but it would take some time before the market can reach that place. The southward movement in the chart has been slow and steady, but the bearish bias is strong.

    GBPUSD
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    In spite of a consolidation of about 2 weeks here, the bullish signal on the Cable is still valid. When momentum returns to the market, it may take the market to the upside (that is the most likely thing to happen). The distribution territory at 1.6800 was tested a few weeks ago, and it is going to be tested again. It is even more likely that the price would breach that distribution territory to the upside and go further towards another distribution territory at 1.6850.

    USDJPY
    Dominant bias: Bearish
    The perpetual weakness of the USD, coupled with the failure of the price to go determinedly upwards, has resulted in a bearish signal on this market. Though the bearish move may be limited, it is not advisable to go long on this market. The best strategies to use here are scalping strategies and intraday trading methods. There is a need for the price to break the support level at 101.50 to the downside and later go towards the next support level at 101.00.

    EURJPY
    Dominant bias: Bullish
    The situation on this cross requires some tact. An unsure trader may want to go out of the market until there is a clear directional bias. In fact, the best thing to do right now is to stay out of this market until there is a clear directional movement in the price. A movement above the supply zone of 141.00 would lead to a confirmation of a bullish signal; whereas a movement below the demand zone at 139.00 would lead to a confirmation of a bearish signal.


    This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

    “It may not be a good idea to stubbornly try to trade under market conditions that aren't conducive to your trading style.” – Joe Ross
     
    #10     Feb 28, 2014