Ted Cruz’s Latest Stunt: A Presidential Campaign No, Cruz Doesn’t Really Have a “Shot” at the Nomination For some, reading the comments section there, at the American Conservative, will be far different than what will be posted below. Try and figure out why.
Cruz doesn't have to win, or even be the nominee. All he has to do is influence the conversation of the whole group to head more towards the conservative right. And that's exactly what he will accomplish - win or not.
You're right , the conservative right have certainly taken notice of him , and that's a good thing. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Unhappy With a Moderate Jeb Bush, Conservatives Aim to Unite Behind an Alternative OSKALOOSA, Iowa — Fearing that Republicans will ultimately nominate an establishment presidential candidate like Jeb Bush, leaders of the nation’s Christian right have mounted an ambitious effort to coalesce their support behind a single social-conservative contender months before the first primary votes are cast. In secret straw polls and exclusive meetings from Iowa to California, the leaders are weighing the relative appeal and liabilities of potential standard-bearers like Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and former Govs. Rick Perry of Texas and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. “Ted Cruz, there’s a fire inside of him,” said Julie Tvedt, the administrator of the Jubilee Family Church, who met for lunch with 12 other Republican evangelical activists after church. “I really like his backbone,” said Curt Block, a salesman. “Compromise is one thing, but when you’re compromising everything, for what are you even standing?” The instant gravitation toward Mr. Cruz here could be significant, or it could be momentary — in which case the efforts of national leaders to settle on a candidate for the Christian right could prove misguided. After all, voter sentiment shifts quickly, and sometimes mysteriously, and endorsements by authority figures are often of dubious value. “No question that conservative leaders around the country would love to coalesce around a candidate,” said Bob Vander Plaats, a social conservative leader in Iowa. “But it’s easier said than done.” At the recent gathering of pastors in Des Moines, Mr. Jindal curried favor on one of their top issues: opposition to same-sex marriage. “I know it is popular to evolve on this issue,” he said. “I’m not evolving.” His first questioner was a woman who asked if Mr. Jindal and other socially conservative contenders could decide among themselves who should be the one true standard-bearer. Her tone was heartfelt, even desperate. “I would love to see you godly leaders pray and fast and see who God would be anointing to raise up,” she said. “We would rally behind him. We cannot be so divided. Our money, our time, our loyalty is so divided.” To which Mr. Jindal offered a one-word response: “Amen.”
I'm surprised no one tried to claim that the American Conservative was really a liberal publication. Cruz is a joke so let's get to what's going on. I think the big money is probably betting on Jeb. A few weeks ago FOXNews had a segment on reviewing the potential republican candidates but noticeably absent from the discussion was Jeb. I wonder if Roger Ailes had sent down a memo to the group to not discuss the former governor. The FOXNews website had a discussion page with the Cruz and Paul followers dismissing Jeb as a candidate, but it's clear these people don't know the history between Ailes and the Bush clan. For some out there that don't know, Ailes was the guy who had produced the Willie Horton ad that brought about the first Bush presidency. If you had read Bob Woodward's book, he advised Dubya how to handle the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. Ailes and the Bushes are close, so it's a given he's for Jeb presidency. It's early but you have to wonder whether Ailes told Huckabee to run to draw the evangelical vote for two reasons: 1) Huck knows he won't win but at some point he'll dropout and endorse Jeb with the expectation that holy rollers will fall behind Jeb and 2) Huck prevents religious nutjobs from endorsing a Cruz or a Paul making it impossible for Jeb to win the nomination. It's still early and Jeb doesn't poll favorably yet but the gears are starting to turn. So all you FOXNews viewers need to know a couple of things: 1) the guy programming what you see is a Bushite, 2) going too far right makes a Hillary win even easier and quite possibly harm any republicans seeking a congressional seat and 3) you are a bunch of gullable people believing the gimmicks of Cruz, Paul or whoever.
Why no one is engaging you on this topic ... Ted Cruz Is Just Like Reagan In 1980, Except People Actually Liked Reagan Let’s dispose of this myth once and for all. Every presidential election cycle we hear it: “Well, they said Ronald Reagan could never be elected.” We’re hearing this chestnut again in the wake of Sen. Ted Cruz’s announcement this week that he’s running for president. Kevin Williamson over at the National Review — while correctly pointing out that you should never say never in politics — argues that the people who say Cruz can’t win should look at the Reagan example before getting too confident in their predictions. Well, I’m looking, and I’m just not seeing it. Reagan was the favorite heading into the 1980 Republican primary. And no, this isn’t only evident in hindsight, it’s a belief born out of the data that was available in the first half of 1979. Reagan was cruising in the “endorsement primary.” Endorsements from party bigwigs, as I wrote about Monday, are key in presidential primaries. They act as a seal of approval for voters, and in some cases, endorsers provide the machinery needed to get out the vote. According to data from “The Party Decides,” Reagan had 51 endorsements from party actors through March 1979. This included five senators, 23 House members, two state party chairs and one governor. Weighting for the position of the endorser (i.e., senators count for more than representatives), Reagan had an astounding 90 percent of endorsements by party officials at that point. Cruz has nowhere near that level of support. He couldn’t even earn the endorsement of his fellow Texas senator, John Cornyn, or fellow tea partyer Sen. Mike Lee. Reagan, who had honed his “common touch” as an actor and TV pitchman, was also a respected two-term governor of California, which at that time was a swing state. He gracefully bowed out of the 1976 Republican convention. In other words, Reagan gave Republican officials a number of reasons to like him. Cruz … hasn’t. It’s the same story with GOP rank and file. Cruz has about 5 percent of the vote, both nationally and in Iowa and New Hampshire, according to recent polls. That’s good for seventh or eighth place. Polls in early 1979, by contrast, clearly placed Reagan in the top tier of candidates. When surveys included Gerald Ford as an option, Reagan and Ford each garnered around 30 percent support. Without Ford, Reagan was polling in first place with 40 percent. Pollsters thought so highly of Reagan’s chances in early 1979 that, according to the polling database kept by the Roper Center (paywall), they didn’t even bother testing President Jimmy Carter against any other Republican candidates. Reagan was neck and neck with Carter in general election polls conducted during the first half of 1979. Cruz trails Hillary Clinton by a mile (an average of about 16 percentage points). Looking at the evidence, Reagan was a very serious contender in early 1979 in a way that Cruz simply isn’t right now. Can Cruz win? Sure, anything is possible. But the best evidence we have suggests it’s very unlikely, and Reagan’s run in 1980 doesn’t say otherwise.
That would be a slam dunk win of the presidency for reps, since Palin would get all the women's vote.