Now you see it - now you don't. I am one of the millions who haven't seen where all the billions went. In fact who pocketed it ? Perhaps someone can enlighten me and others ?? There was a rumour going around that no journalists or members of the public are allowed inside Fort Knox anymore. Is this part of the deal ?
2.8 T are extra reserves deposited electronically , earning interest , at the fed. I beleive it could be converted into cash or short term UST if a bank wanted to do that. I dont know if they could convert fed reserve deposits to high risk assets (sp 500 stocks). I dont think so. There is no money multiplier, additional deposits, loans, or velocity to the reserves at the fed. It does not seem that there is a high demand for loans that exceed normal bank reserves, never mind the massive extra reserve at the fed. Seems to me that unmarketable collateral in private sector( pension funds, insurance co. Portfolios, banks) from the crisis days were sopped up by the big banks at a fair price and then sopped up by the fed balance sheet. That has restored some collateral in the syatem and ended up as extra reserves of big banks at the fed bank. I just look at this as a computer screen at he fed where the right side is the fed balance sheet and the left side is the reserves at the fed bank. The above is how i interpret monetary policy and probably is inaccurate
Reseves prevent banks from having to sell assets, raise capital through equity or debt, or, apply retained to non productive capiatal requirements. Lunch money may also be stolen and applied to top teir capital. A resrve dollar in my left pocket frees ten dollars in my right pocket for bitcoin OTC deals. Even though it is not cash in circulation i cannot discern the difference. This as well is probably inacurate. I do wonder if fed reserve deposits serving to meet minimum capital requirements can simultaneously be used to lever investments AND serve as quality collateral to pledge for short term borrowing needs. Probably so. QE is good stuff.
Taper was hard, uninterrupted, not data dependent. Low rates for a a year or so is discounted. I look for a Bullard pump and an annoucement dump on Wednesday. Taper finished and no mention of the next QE could be a temporary disappointment. Very temporary.
Yes temporary meaning as soon as the market starts to fall more than 5% off its highs they will issue an emergency fed meeting with QE 4 ready to go. Im telling you its going to happen. Just 2 weeks ago as the market was falling they were talking about moving back rate hikes and keeping QE in place. That tells you how this market is being manipulated and rigged to keep it propped up with QE and trillions of free dollars.. ...take that away and this market will lose 20-30% in a month or two and 50% over 6-12 months.. Its all about QE. Take that away and 80% of companies would be missing earnings....QE is the market.