Going to start a new journal and attempt to run a small account up again only trading gold, silver, and the miners. Going to start with a 2500 dollar account. It's actually larger but I'm using it as a starting place for the journal and as a challenge. Tried to start a similar journal about 1 year ago under the assumption that we were about to start a new bull market in gold and silver etc. I was wrong obviously, but I think we have another substantial opportunity again here with gold. I think once again that sentiment is extremely stretched and that the fundamentals are lined up for what could be a nice bull run for the next 3-5 years. I will at first be trading primarily the micro gold futures contracts. They are equivalent to 100 shares of gld. The products will change as my account grows. My rules are pretty basic in that I try to identify swing highs and lows and will attempt to buy the lows and sell the highs. At the start I'm only going to be adding a contract every $25 move in my favor. That doesn't mean I'll add exactly when we move $25 in my favor simply that I'm open to add another position. I have no hard rules for stops but I will typically place them under/above former swing highs/ lows. I think we are close to hitting the lows in gold and silver and will be looking to buy possibly on Mon. or Tues as we're more likely to bottom on these days. Will also probably be waiting for gold to move through the old lows around $1180. Cheers all and hope this works out better than last time .
You are right the price is stretched to the down side and a snap back is not something that would surprise us, however, the main point I see is the lack of demand on the weekly. Even if we have reversal we wouldn't know whether the rally was a technical rally because of oversold conditions or a genuine buying for a trend change to the upside. As far as I can tell we haven't seen any signs of a longer term reversal so far. For your long term position are you talking in terms of multi-mont or multi-year holding period from the point of your entry? Your stops are quite stable so I am sure you'll exit if things don't work out. As for me I am still waiting for some clarity here. Thank you. And I wish you all the best. Gringo
I trade turning points for the most part, so waiting for a reversal or a signal of strength isn't what I really do. The closest I get to that is maybe waiting for a daily reversal print. I don't wait because I've been able to find areas where there are high probabilities of a reversal. I think that this is one of those areas. The problem is the market can continue to move against me so I have to be pretty patient in putting positions on. I'm bullish right now but that doesn't mean I don't think that the market could still trade $150 dollars lower. I'm basically just fishing right now with small positions until I can get more confirmation and then I will be more aggressive. I am talking about a multi-month/ year position if I can get it on right. It may take me a few tries in order to get the initial entry right.
May have gotten a little lucky with my entry here being right on my first try. Obviously things look good right now but could change fairly quickly over the next couple of days with the fed meeting on wed.
One, I wouldn't have the margin in a $2500 account. And two, I'm holding these positions over night. GC is far too large to hold overnight. If we are close to the start of a bull market and I trade well I won't have a problem getting up to 1 or 2 GC contracts eventually.
That was a big day in yen and usd. Metals , grains, softs ...big day. Go with follow through on this IMO. I dont think this is throwing darts at low probability reversals. GL.