Market/Volume Profile Bell Curve

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by BOC, Jul 26, 2015.

  1. BOC

    BOC

    I'm relatively new to Market Profile/Volume Profile but I think this offers some interesting perspectives on the mkt. This is the AUD/USD (in the latest swing of a downtrend on the daily) 30-min Market Profile chart with the daily profiles split and then merged into trends and consolidations. Following the downswing to A there is consolidation B then another slightly lower consolidation C, then a breakdown below both. What's interesting from the MP/VP pov is that at X on the regular MP chart there is a nicely-formed bell curve formed by the Value Area (VA) where price has spent quite a bit of time, with the Point of Control (POC) "jutting out" (that POC price area represented and extended by the thick gray horz bar). (Take my word or check for yourself). Such a bell curve, especially with a jutting POC, may indicate that price is ready to move on, it's spent enough time there.

    One of the criticisms I've read about MP and VP is that the value area isn't really much of an actual value area at times, for instance during a trend, when price does not really spend enough time at any particular point to consider it true accepted value. Perhaps this is valid, perhaps not. However, if one breaks down price action on the MP/VP charts into trends and consolidations, as we see here, then during the consolidations, if you've plotted them correctly, there will certainly be valid value areas which we can see in the well-formed bell curves.

    A traditional consideration of value areas is that this is not a good place to take a position as this is, naturally, where price spends the most time churning. However, there is also the consideration that once a good bell curve has formed then this will also become a kind of rejection area, because the price point has been played out and it's time to move on. Also, one can consider how price reacts around an established VA/POC for clues as to the migration of value and therefore strength/weakness.

    So, at X, consider the time length of the previous trend to A, consider the time length of the current range B, consider the well-formed MP/VP bell curve and the prominent POC. Again, price will only spend so much time at any point; at some time it's done, value has been sufficiently explored, it's time to move on, one way or t'other.

    Following X there is a shallow test of the previous highs (themselves upthrusts) which fails, followed by the sharpest drop/rally of the range, breaking the previous lows. On the VP chart this is a low-volume/rejection node where price is often rejected on subsequent tests. Which happens at the first rally to D, at the POC of that previous range, then a reaction to a new low at E.

    Here price forms an apex, then rallies sharply to F. This is significant, as price burns thru that previous VP rejection node, above the POC and well into the B range. But it doesn't hold, upthrusting D, followed by lower-highs banging against that POC, forming an apex, which breaks down out of this range.

    Note price behavior and all the time spent at the POC in range B (natch, because this is what actually forms the VA & POC and the bell curve) vs how price behaves and the brief time spent at that POC in range C, where it acts more as resistance. It can't hold above that previous VA/POC.

    David Letterman used to have routine - "Is This Anything?" Is this anything? I don't know yet. I think, possibly, along with traditional Wyckoff PV analysis, the Value concept from this perspective could offer additional insight into market behavior.