Hello, Two questions: 1. Has anyone ever had any experience using the Jurik Adaptive Moving Average? If so, how useful and effective is it? 2. What Adaptive type moving average if any actually can truly adapt to the market. I would appreciate your thoughts on this matter? Thanks
It's a moving average. They're all fundamentally the same type of rear view mirror. How well it works depends on what you're trying to accomplish, and what the market is doing at the time.
Never understood why Jurik MA is useful. It will tell the past, but for that nothing will like price. It wont predict the future, nothing will, so whats the point? Beats me really.
I have used Jukik MA and their RSI in the past. Nothing special. The client I was coding for wanted to use it, but back-testing results were similiar to a linear regression average. The problem is it looks good on a chart (hindsight bias), but in real-time their is no improvement in success. Search around for some of the newer MAs and you will see similiar indicators for free. Or check out some articles from John Ehlers.
The intention when using indicators is not to predict anything at all. If you think that, you got a long way to go, I am sorry to say that.
the more there is no need to use them then.. a trader must make his bet on something which has some predictive power - the more the better imo.. for sure I'll be proven wrong in no time so enlighten me please - what's 'the intention when using indicators' ?
If you are looking for predictions better talk to an astrologer. This is not how traders do it. Only newbies think indicators and traders try to predict anything.
The main value of any moving average, especially adaptive moving averages as a class, is to act as lowpass filters, i.e., to separate high-frequency components of a time series from the low-frequency components. If you are a trend trader, you want to remove the high-frequency components and trade off the signals from the lowpass filtered series. OTOH if you are a RTM trader, you want to remove the low-frequency components and trade off the signals from the highpass filtered series. MAs aren't very good for RTM trading usually.
I have the Jurik MA and I do like it for what it is and I don't regret the cost of buying it. I think what gets lost a lot of times in these discussions is the benefit sometimes in trying what is widely considered the best of something in a particular category (95% of the people that have used it would probably agree the Jurik MA gets this credit ...there are always going to be contrarians ) . Once you have had exposure to it then it takes away the mystique and enables you to have a better understanding of the realistic possibilities. Would I say it is going to make every trade decision from here on out a "no brainer" ... No, but am I glad it's in my toolbox when I need it ...Yes.
I'm fairly certain JMA is available in some corners of the internet for free. It is nearly identical to the hull moving average and the linger regression (although somewhat smoother). It is decent imho ...wouldn't pay for it though, espe at his ratty website