Every bar OHLC on every time frame offers POTENTIAL S&R, 2 tests of a level I deem as minor S&R, 3 tests becomes more significant, clustered with fibs, pivots, etc. becomes major. That said, levels (minor & major) are being broken or at least overrun all the time, otherwise markets would eternally be in a narrow range. What do you guys use to judge where to draw your horizontal lines? And whilst we're on the subject, what do you use to identify a trend? Indicators? Price Action? MAs? Multi TF? Or something else?
TE, the FX markets represent roughly $3 trillion worth of trading a day. â¬$ represents about a third of that. (you may need to check those figures), but lets assume it's bloody big. With that in mind, I'd hazzard that there's more than a few idiots aware of fibs, including, Central Banks, Institutions, Hedge Funds, Independents, etc. etc. A self fulfilling prophecy? Most probably.
XX, as you know, there are many ways to look at a chart and see potential low risk trade opps. I had a look at CEPH and this is what I saw. 55.00<56.20<56.60<57.30<57.40<57.80<58.39>58.60>59.10>59.50>59.70>60.20>60.70 What are our triggers for Long and Short, and what are our targets for covering? Is the R:R sufficient to spend our time trading this stock? Are we going to get at least 50 cent profit on the trade? If we lose, how much will it cost us to find out we have just added one more loser to our list? If we win, how much should we be looking to make so that the losers on our list are of no real worry to us? Are we looking at the same thing that everyone else is looking at? Do we really want to look at what everyone else sees? How do we look and come up with different numbers to most? Who else is looking at the numbers we are looking at? How do we confirm that they are looking at those numbers? There is a lot MORE to S&R lines than meets the eye TE
Every trade taken must have a valid reason, and I don't mean a valid reason being the crossing of the price at some stupid squiggly line When the trade is placed, you either WIN or LOSE..FULL STOP Whether the trade is a WINNER or a LOSER does not matter one little bit, really What does MATTER, is that you know beforehand how much it is going to cost you to find out you have just LOST, and, how much you will make if you WIN. If a trader ACTUALLY does this, day in and day out, then, it is just a matter of TIME to increase the account balance. Time = Money Who gives a shit about THE TREND, for, the only thing that matters is the ACCOUNT BALANCE Fuk the trend, it's all about THE NUMBERS TE
To understand how trends work one needs to study historical charts. Not minute charts, but daily upwards. In due course one will be able to identify a trend start, trend continuation & trend end. There is lots of material (even for free) online regarding trend reading, some go way too sophisticated reading a trend. Yet the core is very simple for an uptrend to work it needs to have new highs & higher lows, a lot of the time trends are quite perfect that price literally travels within an equidistant channel. Etc. ImPO if one studies 1000 historical daily+ charts & keeps making notes on where are common low risk entries, where are good average zones to have stops & targets, similarities in trend continuation, start & end, then that person will evolve into a much better trader.
Of course numbers matter, I am running a thread which is solely based on Daily numbers, pre-volatility analysis & money management. That account is up more than 50% this year already.
TE, Respectfully, perhaps enough is enough? If the great unwashed don't get it now then they probably never will. There is enough material in the posts of NY, TG, RN, yourself, Blotto and a few of the others on this site to help those that are genuinely capable of going through the looking glass. As you know, for those of us who have made it to the other side the issue is not determining market direction, that bit is easy, the issue is getting on the size we desire. And for that we need the merry band of fucknuggets to take the other side. Let's not make it any more difficult that it needs to be eh? It amazes me that, despite the fact that this site is 99.9999999999% utter diarrhetic drivel, there is some invaluable information in the public domain on here. As you keep saying though, the first and most important thing anyone needs to be able to do is differentiate those that know from those than don't. Once someone can do this then pretty much everything of any worth on ET can be found, read and digested in a single weekend. Anyways, get out and enjoy the weather. All the best Scoob
I'm inclined to agree with you on that. Contrary to the "learning from OTHER'S mistakes" argument, I would say that EXPERIENCE is definitely important in achieving CONSISTENT profitability.
I post on some other boards, recently I have witnessed so many posters short GBP into rising strength I kept seeing myself doing the same few years back. Obviously they kept shorting & getting stopped out, eventually when faith is lost (& money) it is starting to fail at the top of a daily equidistant channel.