http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-goldman-sachs-gs-144302105.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=gs&ql=1 http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/financials/fi-126.1.GS.NYS http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gs Trade: With GS at 167.97 Oct 200/205 bear call spread for a net credit of $40 Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 177 days or 17.9% annualized Prob = 88.4% Expectation = .884(40) - .086(460) - .03(230) = 35.4 - 39.56 - 6.9 = -11 Price.......... Profit / Loss.... ROM % 125.00.............. 40.00......... 8.70% 150.00.............. 40.00......... 8.70% 175.00.............. 40.00......... 8.70% 200.00.............. 40.00......... 8.70% 200.40................ 0.00......... 0.00% 203.61........... (321.50)..... -64.30% 205.00........... (460.00)..... -91.30% 225.00........... (460.00)..... -91.30% 250.00........... (460.00)..... -91.30%