Ewj: elliott wave

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by mu200411, Aug 13, 2007.

  1. EWJ: Elliott Wave J……….
    This thread is started by Elliott Wave newbie. This is not intended for serious technical analysts or traders. Just for fun. The wave counts will be changed frequently as Frost and Prechter wrote in the Elliott Wave Principle, 1978 : “we will be the first to discard our predictions if the waves tell us we must”.
    Wave ONE] began some 6 to 3 million years ago with the genus Homo and ended 1 million years ago with the beginning of ice age when Homo erectus began replacing the other Homos. Sub-epochal Wave THREE] began about 500,000 years ago and ended 100,000 years ago with another ice age. Sub-epochal Wave FIVE] began 30,000 years ago when Homo sapiens sapiens ruled the earth and ended 13000 years ago.
    Agricultural Era Wave THREE) began with farming 11000 years ago and ended with a mini ice age from 3000 B.C. to 2000 B.C. which was Era Wave FOUR).
    Millennium Wave ONE began with ancient civilization in Egypt and ended when the sea people invaded and the Millennium Wave TWO began with the Greek Dark Age around 1000 B.C. Millennium Wave THREE was the time of Roman Empire from 594 B.C. to 476 A.D. European Dark Age was Millennium Wave FOUR.
    Centenary Wave I} 1000 – 1300 A.D. was the Age of the Popes who lost power during Centenary Wave II} 1300 – 1400 A.D. The Age of Kings was Centenary Wave III} 1400 – 1700 A.D. The Kings became less wealthy during Centenary Wave IV} 1700 – 1776 when England lost America. The Centenary Wave V} may run to 2012 :eek: as Elliott predicted or 2070 :).
     
    SupermanTrades likes this.
  2. According to Elliott (not Prechter)
    Super-cycle wave I] 1783 – 1835 = 52 years long
    Super-cycle wave II] 1835 – 1857 = 22 years long
    Super-cycle wave III] 1857 – 1929 = 72 years long
    Super-cycle wave IV] 1929 – 1942 = 13 years triangle wave
    If Super-cycle wave V] is 70 years long, it will end in 2012 as Elliott predicted.
    Only 5 years left to enjoy the market!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:eek:
    Centenary Wave correction will be greater than the corrections after 1835 and 1929

    The Japanese Super-cycle wave V] might have been 47 years long, hence the 80% correction of the Nikkei from ~ 39,000 in 1989 to ~ 7600 in 2003
     
  3. For Elliott, the last Cycle wave I began in 1942, he did not say when it ended.
    For Prechter, the last Cycle wave I began in 1932 and Cycle wave III began in 1942. Two extra Cycle waves as compare to those of Elliott. Prechter is now looking for the end of Cycle wave V and the beginning of Grand Super Cycle wave correction which will last for 150 years.
    Elliott may be looking for the end of Cycle wave III from above and the beginning of Cycle wave IV which will last for 8 or 16 years.
    16 years corrective wave is no big deal as we can see the Nikkei corrective wave from 1989 to 2003 low.
     
  4. Prechter denounced Elliott's Thirteen Year Triangle on the basis that wave B,C and E (called 2,3 and 5 by Elliot) were "fives," instead of "threes" as all triangle legs must be. He went on to say "unfortunately, Elliott had made up his mind on an irrelevant point outside the Wave principle, namely that 1929-1932 was too short a time period to correct the previous Supercycle".
    I would like to suggest the third possible end point of Supercycle Wave IV at June 1949 low ~160 in addition to the second possible end point at April 1942 low ~ 95 and the first possible end point at June 1932 low ~ 42.
    My reasoning is that I can count 1932 - 1937 wave as a three, 1937 - 1942 wave would be a three as Prechter like, and 1942 - 1946 and 1946 - 1949 waves looked like threes.
    I think Elliott did not choose the third possible end point because he had insufficient data, or to be more precised insufficient time.
    These three possible ends of Supercycle Wave IV are important because they will tell us, in fact future us, in 150 years time that Prechter's 150 years Supercycle Wave Correction is wave TWO or FOUR.
     
  5. Errata:
    These three possible ends of Supercycle Wave IV are important because they will tell us, in fact future us, in 150 years time that Prechter's 150 years Supercycle Wave Correction is wave TWO or FOUR.
    Should be:
    These three possible ends of Supercycle Wave IV are important because they will tell us, in fact, future us, in 150 years time that Prechter's 150 years Grand supercycle Wave Correction is Grand supercycle wave II} or IV} or just the beginning of Millennium Wave ALPHA.
     
  6. Prechter counted 1932 - 1937 wave as Cycle wave I and 1937 - 1942 wave as Cycle wave II.
    This assumption led him to prominence by the "long-term super bull market in stocks" interpretation, October 1982, which in turn led him into trouble with "the bearishness of his forecasts in the time since October 1987 ".
    The supposedly Cycle wave V rose from 570.01 low in October 1974 to 2749.64 high in July 1987 or 482% in 5 year which is nearly equal to the 482% rise of the supposedly Cycle wave I which rose for 40.56 low in July 1932 to 195.95 high in March 1937 also in 5 years. The supposedly last Supercycle Wave V is 55 years long (in 1987), a little longer than Supercycle Wave I which is 52 years long.
     
  7. If Prechter believed the Master's "irrelevant point outside the Wave principle, namely that 1929-1932 was too short a time period to correct the previous Supercycle", he might have forecasted the end of Supercycle Wave III to be as long as the newbie Supercycle Wave I which rose from 160.62 low in June 1949 to 1001.11 high in October 1965 or ~623%, or if it extended 3 time as long as the newbie Supercycle Wave I. So Supercycle Wave III might have been forecasted to rise from October 1974 low at 570.01 and end at 3552.75 or 10658.25 or to rise from July 1982 low at 769.98 and end at 4799.12 or 14397.36 and Prechter should have retained his prominence and the credibility of the Elliott Wave Principle.
    So sad he did not.
     
  8. If he did, he would have a more optimistic view. He may forecasted that Cycle Wave IV would be equal to Cycle Wave II which dropped 43% from the January 1966 high of 1001.11 to October 1974 low of 570.01 or 50% or 61.8% (a fibonacci retracement).
    So the end of Cycle Wave IV may be forecasted to drop 50% from ~10600 or ~14400 to ~5300 or ~7200 in 8 years. Cycle Wave V may be equal to Cycle Wave I and rise to 33,000 or 44,800 in 1949 + 71 = 2020, the time when oil reserve is very low. Boeing Co., Exxon Mobil Corp., General Motors Corp. and United Technologies Corp. might have gone out of business.
     
  9. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
    Peak oil
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    Some observers such as Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Matthew Simmons, and James Howard Kunstler believe that because of the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural and industrial systems on inexpensive oil, the post-peak production decline and possible resulting severe price increases will have negative implications for the global economy. Predictions as to what exactly these negative effects will be vary greatly. More optimistic outlooks, delaying the peak of production to the 2020s or 2030s and assuming major investments in alternatives occur before the crisis, show the price at first escalate and then retreat as other types of fuel sources are used as transport fuels and fuel substitution in general occurs.
     
  10. http://www.touchoilandgas.com/security-threat-companies-conflict-a671-1.html
    The Security Threat to Oil Companies in and out of Conflict Zones - Expro: The Oil & Gas Review 2005 - Issue 2
    Mark Lindsay
    ………. For instance, while the US consumes one-quarter of all oil, it has only 2% of the world’s reserves, and these are expected to run out in approximately a decade. The remainder of the G8 states are all in similar positions. While Russia has a significant proportion of the world’s reserves, the country is expected to be depleted in two decades. …….. For example, Saudi Arabia has the largest reserves; they are expected to last for approximately 70 years. Also, Iraq, Kuwait, Iran and the United Arab Emirates have the next largest reserves in the world that are expected to last for approximately a hundred years or more. ………………… Venezuela is the only non-Gulf state that has a significant proportion of the world’s oil reserves; these are expected to last for more than 50 years. Libya, Nigeria and Qatar also have relatively significant reserves that are expected to last for between 40 and 70 years. ………….
     
    #10     Aug 17, 2007