I'm surprised there isn't more chatter on these boards a out the floor in EUR/CHF, along with the SNB gold referendum vote could have a huge impact. On Friday you could see a yard at 1.2010 which the rumor is that is where SNB will intervene. This is the type of trade where you could short the floor, be in a 200 pip winner then instantly be in a 200 pip lower when SNB comes in. I'm not adding value here, just putting this out as a feeler to who really trades FX and has this on their radar.
Actually. thats great information. I just punt FX to keep in tune with macro flows and maintain my price action trading chops. Gold made an incredible Daily move up in the last session. I don't know if you can fake that, but I would like to see some reversals in Oil and Yen/Euro to reverse my short bias. Oil may reverse on multi month lows, but Yen is still incredibly weak. Germany/ Euro is clearly in the crapper.
I was in on this from about 2040 to about 2020. Obviously on hindsight got out a little early but I was getting nervous about intervention at that point. My feel is that this is not going to be a cakewalk break and will be very heavily defended from this point on. So getting out of the way for now.
What floor ? This thing is sinking like a stone. The abyss is way down at 1.0000. I am taking this off my radar and deleting chart. In fact I recommend selling.
Huh? SNB has a floor at 1.20 rumor is they are on the bid at 1.2010 and that's when they intervene. The interesting fact is there is chatter that they are needing to liquidate other pairs to be able to finance holding the floor for now. I wouldn't be surprised if we see come volume vacuums as we awake the gold referendum in some other crosses. I'd hate to be any sell side broker who has to try to honor stops below 1.20
Do you have a link to SNB's 1.2 bid guarantee ? From what I can see, SNB is selling. My guess is they are racing the japanese.
SNB has stated this multiple times, they will defend the floor they set. I agree I think you short it through, but if SNB comes in I don't want to be on the other side. Simple Google search you will find articles on the floor. This obviously isn't the first time a central bank has put in a floor, and when they do intervene the pair goes instant bid and could be up 100 pips before you even know what is going on. http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/indices-insider/2014/08/27/03/
That's only saying Joe Blow is going to defend the 1.20. But Joe Blow doesn't work for SNB. So this one is a sell and Joe Blow isn't going to burn anyone.
Fair reply. Thanks for this thread, I did follow quite closely eurchf around the time of the 1.20 floor introduction, snb meeting included and made a bit of money of this pair but had taken it out of the radar after the CHF weakened. it seems it's a good time if one wants to bet on the SNB holding the floor again.