The dow jones has risen nearly 1000 points since the sell off two days ago. With all that is happening in China and in Europe, do you think that the market will continue to rise for the foreseeable future or that a major drop is coming soon? I know it's impossible to really predict, but what are your opinions on it?
When thinking about market any trader should think not in general terms but only through the prism of his method. Since every trader has different method, any discussion between traders about the market is meaningless, especially about the future of the market - any method indicates to trader what's is going on now (no method generates signals that requires action in the future, any method indicates what to do now) ... end of story so my honest answer to your question: i do not think about what will be happening
Nobody knows. Your best overall chance is to be technically correct/reasonable in your trades, with stops.
You bring up interesting points, Lloyd. A few things to keep in mind: We are still in a summer session and not all trading participants are back at their desks. After Labor Day, the markets should see a return of consistent volume. That being said, we believe that you will continually hear/see commentary from FED officials and global central bankers on current economic conditions. The markets will certainly respond to commentary.
given the panic at the start of the week we will see if people decide to get out before the weekend. I would be surprised if we don't see substantial selling today although as you know nothing is certain in this game.
I would not be surprised by another opening like we had this past monday, last October I believe we had something similar to an opening where everything at the opening was mispriced, again, the reason for that turn around in October 2014 was because of the stimulus europe put through and all the positive comments from draghi on a week to week basis....that aside this time every bit of stimulus is in place, china did another round of stimulus this week, keep in mind that these countries can continue to all the stimulus they want and it wont make one single difference....the more stimulus the more problems..
To succeed in the markets.... You have to "figure it out on the fly". Preconceived notions, while sometimes correct, are often/usually disappointed.
qxr1011 has it right imo. You have to look at what you are doing and where we are today and how that relates to your trading. There are guys here that love the high vix and I read on here every day how it's like Christmas for them as they have lots of ways to print money during these times. I'm just the opposite. My stuff works when when we have a lower vix, so I'm mostly sitting out and waiting for that. I don't know where the market will go, but I know that a mid 20's vix is bad for my trading - and that's where we are today.