Watching the bitcoin price only (no charts) became some of my interest lately. Any worthwhile commentary on the price worth following; or no one really knows; for example why the price as of writing went down to $327(!)? Old Jim Rogers comes to mind: when it goes up; I buy more; when it goes down; I buy more.
this whole downdraft from high 400's could have been one early adopter dumping BTC and the corresponding negative feedback loop. it would be interesting to note if there has been any interesting activity on the blockchain amongst the large holders. another possibility is a short syndicate with only a few million dollars could have caused this move. as there are only a few venues to short, a shorting syndicate would probably happen on BTC-E. speculation, of course.
So, if I understand correctly, to my question asking for words and analysis, you suggest numbers only? OK.
as bitcoin becomes more widely accepted -> diehard bitcoin supporters who refuse to sell bitcoin for $, now spends them on businesses who accept bitcoins to support them -> those businesses instantly convert bitcoin they received into dollar -> resulting in significant supply while demand remains flat -> price continues to drop. for price to stabilize 1) business needs to hold the bitcoin they received and use them for expenses instead of instant sell or 2) price drops to a level that will bring on additional speculators (demand). I see 2) to be more likely, we are far off from 1). Everyone goes nuts with conspiracies when in fact it's just simple logic. Me? I just keep buying, spending $2000 everytime it drops $50. Plan to average it to <$1 if it comes to that. The eco system and everything fundamental is still intact, adoption has went up significantly also in the last year. I view this as a commodity like gold for now, currency aspect is uncertain ask me again in 5 years. /shrug
Except with a gold bar I can heat you on the head.... I think bitcoin is very tradable with this range bound movement but over the long run it will go lower...