Bear market is here?? (worst than 87 crash)

The End Of The Bull Market

So warns investment newsletter writer Dennis Gartman on Friday, saying the massive plunge in equities in the past 24 hours “dwarfs anything seen previously,” and is far more severe than the crash of 1987 or the emerging markets-Russian collapse of several summers ago. He is rejecting any talk on the Street that this weakness a mere correction in the context of a global bull market. “It is not merely a correction. It is the signal of the end of the global bull market that began several years ago, and before this near bear market is done, we are likely to see share prices materially ... indeed very materially ... lower.” Don’t be surprised, he predicts, to see bellwether stocks that led the market higher trade down 50 to 60 per cent from their highs “before this has run its course, for that is the nature of bear market.” In retrospect, he figures the recent IPO by Blackstone Group LP was the “very top of the bull market. They will be seen from the perspective of history as one of the strong hands who sold their holdings to the weak.” While some market pundits have criticized Blackstone for going public only to see the stock price fall relentlessly since then, Mr. Gartman writes that “Blackstone’s management did not err; the public erred in buying it. The strong hands sold to the weak, and the weak have bungled the job.”

 

I thought May 2006 and Feb 2007 were the end of the bullmarket already!? Every 5%-10% down move is a new "1987" for these newsletter guys. They need the propaganda.

 

keep in mind the may 2006 pull back was related to the market mosconstuing what the fed said about inflation expectations. the feb crash was due to comments china made and also a computer glitch . this time is different,its based on something that is actually happening;a credit crunch and fears in sub prime that are actually coming to fruition;ie,bear stearns,CFC. This pull back is'nt based on irraional fear but actual events that are starting to unfold . the consumer and private equity kept this market roaring .granted the global economy is strong but no way the dow hits 14k without the private equity bubble.

 

exactly; i recall at 2/27 he was calling for a bear market as well.

by the way, do some math and calculations for yourself - not what the media feeds you - the corporate bond yields and available $$/liquidity is in no way threatened to the point of endgame. We're just repricing some risk to more appropriate levels. When GS debt is still only 85 basis points premium to 10yr notes (which are down about 50 basis points in yield in the past month or so), that still leaves 400 basis points of earnings yield arbitrage to occur in the form of stock buybacks.

our markets are so easily manipulated by the media. the GDP #s were great today -- the worst part of inflation - commodity prices - is even showing some signs of near term topping. Good stuff.

the bull market is over when China stops posting GDP growth - and no sooner.

 

Gartman hasn't been around much, I guess. "Massive plunge..dwarfs anything see previously"--give me a break.

 

With all due respect, ALL of the above is crap that the media presents as a reason why the market behaves the way that it does.

The bottomline is that the SPX broke out above the 1540 level to NEW HIGHS and failed to accelerate to the upside. When the market came back in UNDER that level and continued to trade under it, testing lower SPX numbers . . . it was a clear sign that this market was exhausted to the upside. Any technician that has an ounce of market history/experience behind him could see what was unfolding once the market failed to accelerate to the upside after breaking out above 1540.

Under 1530.80 was a huge technical short, with lows at 1506.10 and 1486 the next stops.

This market is trading TECHNICALLY.

The media puts on the fundamental
"spin" after each and every close to explain to the average viewer/reader why the market is going down.

It's too bad that ET doesn't attract anything more than people that are good at "cut and pasting" headlines, news reports, giving CNBC "play by plays" and all of the other mumbo-jumbo that the media presents.

 

I'd hate to see your panic levels if you lived through the S&L & junk bond days of the 1980s. Of course, it didn't lead to a long-term financial metldown any more than the Asian Contagion did in the 90s.

Each time, it's supposed to be different. It's always supposed to be the final straw.

The same mentality occurs with bullish euphoria like the runaway markets in the late 90s. "Yes, it's really different this time."

But it never is...

 

Thank you

 

Just 2 weeks ago many here were using charts and technicals saying NDX 2400 was coming. Some even calling for DOW 14,500-15k, now look, nearly 1000 points away, a dip below 13k is going to bring a HUGE amount of selling if it does take place.

 

You also had the S&P facing fierce resistance at its 2000 high of 1552. This will be broken eventually, just like the Dow's 2000 high was. But we couldn't get a series of consecutive closes above it in the first round.