Sure feels that way. Collapsing oil prices Slack demand No new killer apps If everyone were bullish I would be absolutely certain. It seems this indicator is not there. But my feeling is that we are right now, Q2 2016, at negative growth globally, and we are contracting. What say you?
Collapsing oil prices -> indicate more production (mainly due to more competition between suppliers) and is good for consumers. Slack demand -> let's wait for mothers day, there will be more demand No new killer apps -> tech has been advancing way too quickly, it's time to go a bit slowly, we don't need killer apps, we only need apps that meets our need. Besides, it takes a bit of time for the God to create someone like Steve jobs. Not that I can see, we are not in recession for sure
Recession or not is irrelevant. Stocks crashing is relevant because that will cost (or make) you money.
We haven't had the growth coming out of 2008 that many anticipated...We've had an endless series of central bank meddling that has gotten us to the point where rate normalization is an impossibility...The problem is that we have a "real" economy and an "asset" economy and many confuse the two (looking at asset prices as some sort of indication of real economy health)...this leads to many false signals as business slowdown, recessionary indications (which in the past would have an affect on asset prices) have all become less relevant...Instead, the only thing that matters (to asset prices) is what the round robin of CB's tell us every few weeks throughout the year.
Considering that high speed internet and the social media / e-commerce / "gig" economy revolution pretty much changed everything just within 10 years since the 2007-2009 great recession, its very hard to say whether we are in a recession or going to be in one soon. Even if there are loads of layoffs in this current climate, if people can't find jobs, they still have so many options to choose from like never before: they could become online freelancers, start an online business, enroll in some online courses, or possibly become day traders. You really shouldn't underestimate just how many barriers to business and knowledge the internet has completely flat lined. Could be good in the long term, could be bad - I don't think anyone knows yet. So in the short term, unemployment figures may appear to be declining because of so many available options for those who are laid off. Long term? Well entirely depends just for how long people are prepared to work for say $10 a day doing online gigs when they are competing with the entire world where the same amount may literally be a fortune in another country. And then theres also the matter of high Debt/GDP ratios. But that problem is faced by literally every country now. I don't think its in the interests of TPTB to see it burst anytime soon unless a black swan event completely takes everyone by surprise.
Oil is up over 60% since February lows. We have had 7 straight quarters of positive GDP growth and current forecasts to tiny to flat growth for 1Q 2016. Think we need a bit more contraction before we are even close to 1Q of -growth let alone 2.
yes and no. August of 2015 and January 2016 confirms that we may see a recession and or crash, yet, so far the Bulls are jumping in and not letting this happen. There is still a lot of cash outside and before a slide into a recession all Bulls cash should be in the market. Volatility is low and the market should be shaken up like a spring board before a strong dive down.
I think were're in unknown territory...with a bad ending likely. What if you had a lot of debt, but you could go out in the garage and print enough counterfeit money to make the minimum payment on all your bills each month...but continued to spend more and more everyday on credit? How long could this last? Also, it would be very difficult to GROW any true WEALTH while in this predicament. This is the U.S. and much of the world as of right now...therefore sluggish growth for now!