XAU is trading more or less sidewise since more than a year spanning a range from the june13 low at 1179 to the august13 High at 1434. The range has been constantly declining and so the volatility. From a pattern perspective it looks like a triangle pattern is forming. I suppose that a lot of players in the market as well as technical analysts could see the pattern and speculate on it. But often what could be seen by everyone or even by the majority of the traders will seldom become reality. And further more from the analytical EW perspective view the triangle is the standard pattern with the highest requirements on symmetry. Therefore in analytical EW triangles on a higher degree are rather rare. Within the hourly chart below you could see the more or less complex count of the sidewise performance since summer 2013. Red labels show a possible the triangle count. Black/blue label the count of an complex combination pattern within a correction wave [iv], after which a rapid decline will follow Rose label shows the count for an elongated correction within wave [iv] The market will show us which of the counts will be a proper model for the further price development. But for all of the possibilities the next move to be expected is to the green target area 1326-74 within the next 1-3 weeks. Therefore XAU should break the blue trend line next days. If XAU is breaking the red trend line instead the scenario will be falsified, because then we will see a further down leg and a test of the 1240 support most probably.