AAPL earnings on April 27 ----- Summary of my three GOOGL trades

AAPL earnings on April 27. After hours.

• AAPL at 130.28
• 52-week high 133.00.
• I'm considering buying a May01 136.00 call on Monday, current ask $1.25.
• Price target after earnings $140.00+.
• Will post when (if) I enter the trade.
• Any adverse market conditions on Monday might prevent me from entering the trade.
• The OTM QQQ ($110.54) May01 111.50 weekly options (ask $0.33) would be a good alternative trade.

Summary of my three GOOGL trades.

1. April 07 - $100 - $0 - GOOGL - Bought 2 April10 557.50 Calls at $0.50
2. April 12 - $77 - $0 - GOOGL - April17 OTM Calls
3. April 15 - $85 - $150 - Just a Reminder - Next week is a busy week for earnings

• Total Debit: $262
• Total Credit: $150
• Total P/L: -$112 (Commissions not included)

Comments are welcome.

 

I don't have it's price dynamics for May, but aren't you a bit late with it?
Anyway, this is my personal view.

 

I traded TWTR weeklys on WED , made some money and bought FB call , didn't turn out well
You can make small earnings bets here and there , but still to be safe , buy right after market opens on good earnings.

Im thinking AAPL play , but I dont know yet.

 

If you get $140 AAPL, you're looking at about $2.50 made on your $1.25 premium. IV is just so high on those weeklies. I think if you go out a month or so, you might have better risk/reward. A June 5 136 call is trading at $2.66. If you get the same $140 you currently expect, those would be worth $7.35, a better ROE with lower risk. IV on those Junes is considerably lower. Check out the chart below.

Essentially, the vol crush will make you lose almost all of that $1.25 after earnings in the May, and you'll just be left with whatever intrinsic value is around. The June IV hasn't really rallied that much, so your extrinsic is somewhat protected. If AAPL falls $6, you'd be back to that same expected $1.25 premium loss. So as long as you don't think it can fall more than $6, I think the Junes might be a better outcome all around.

Hope this helps in some way, let me know what you think.

 

it's a very good stock in May, daily timing is available, but do not rush into it the next week

 

Excellent post. I have always gone with the weeklies even during earnings but now I might make some exceptions around earnings. I'm going to think about the June05 136.00 calls tonight and then decided on Monday what to do.

 

With AAPL up $2.40 I have decided to move the strikes up $2.00 to 138.00 and buy the May15 calls instead of the May01.

• AAPL at 132.68
• Bought 1 AAPL May15 138.00 call at $1.98. Filled at 11:49:28 ET.
• I plan on closing the position sometime this week.

Paper Trades vs the Live Trade (for comparison)

1. Buy 1 AAPL May01 138.00 call at $1.28. (my original plan)
2. Buy 4 QQQ May01 111.50 calls at $0.40. (alternative trade)

 

Now AAPL is at 134.40 AH. My gut feeling says it will be down tomorrow (Tuesday) to about 130. I don't trade AAPL though.

 

Check out this chart. Iphone sales should be lower next Q and we should see a conservative downtrend in AAPL stocks starting from tomorrow.

 

AAPL selling off after touching record highs, imagine if the earnings results missed, apple would be trading down about $10....