Is it just me or is the stock market boring as a Knicks game these days? I just can't get excited. I blame the quants and the program traders, the market has an unnatural hitch to it now pulled along by Index fund trading, xta large capitalized stocks and the buying back of shares to conceal rather average income growth. Perhaps it's just hard to find buys at a high but the pickings are not great now I don't think. One stock I like very much is Zeltiq. Healthcare is a great place to be stock wise and ZLTQ occupies a neat niche somewhere between heath and tech. ZELTIQ is a medical technology company focused on developing and commercializing products utilizing its proprietary controlled-cooling technology platform. ZELTIQ's first commercial product, the CoolSculpting® System, is designed to selectively reduce stubborn fat bulges. CoolSculpting is based on the scientific principle that fat cells are more sensitive to cold than the overlying skin and surrounding tissues. It utilizes patented technology of precisely controlled cooling to reduce the temperature of fat cells in the treated area, which is intended to cause fat cell elimination through a natural biological process known as apoptosis. It's all about the apoptosis stupid! I've been watching this stock for a few years basically waiting for 60 minutes to do a piece about " Cold Fraud & Fat " but such a piece has not come and the earnings numbers continue to depict a flourishing company. Zeltiq reports preliminary revenues and provides outlook for 2015 Jan 13 2015, Zeltiq (NASDAQ:ZLTQ) expects Q4 and full-year revenues of $51M - 52M (+44%) and $175M - 176M (+57%), respectively. Ok this is a company growing at quite a good clip-- one freezing fat here in the states we don't need to worry about the strong dollar . Event: 27th Annual ROTH Conference Date: Monday, March 9, 2015 Time: 10:30 a.m. PT / 1:30 p.m. ET Event: Barclays Global Healthcare Conference Date: Thursday, March 12, 2015 Time: 10:15 a.m. ET / 7:15 a.m. PT This is what the company says: WHY THE COOLSCULPTING PROCEDURE IS DIFFERENT The CoolSculpting procedure using Cryolipolysis® is fundamentally different from other non- or minimally invasive modalities. Other methods of fat removal primarily involve necrotic cell death by damaging fat with heat, high-intensity focused ultrasound, or chemical injections. Each approach poses potential technical challenges, particularly with respect to targeting the right tissue depth and unintended damage to other structures close to or within the fat layer. Predictability of efficacy using these other techniques is also uncertain. In contrast, the CoolSculpting procedure using Cryolipolysis® induces apoptosis only in fat cells to gently and gradually reduce the fat layer while preserving all other tissue. You may be surprised to find ZLTQ is up 27% in 3 months. It's not a stock you hear about much but it's quietly marching up. This is a powerful chart pattern (just now flagging) and a company with the earnings potential to keep the rally going. My bet is these two earnings conferences coming up next week boost the stock into the low to mid $40's. From there I believe Zeltiq can make you some real money. It is a top idea for me, end of year target. $65.00. ZLTQ- $33.50 Buy. ~stoney Next Up: Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (EXPD).
That West Coast port slowdown that ended recently should have rippling effects throughout the shipping industry. My bet is that air freight picked up a big boost that will be seen in their earnings next quarter. I thought about the various names (DHL etc) and settled on EXPD. Expeditors has a strong air cargo division and overall logistics. In fact this company manged the port slowdown as well as anyone with their ships. Despite the noise Expeditors International moved a record volume of cargo in the fourth quarter, with marine cargo up 9 percent compared to the same period in 2013. That's huge. "We moved more containers than we have in our entire history in the fourth quarter," said Expeditors President and CEO Jeff Musser, in an interview from his Seattle headquarters Thursday. When cargo loading and unloading slowed in November and December – Expeditors customers were able to call the company to help get their cargo through. This was a tactic that didn't work as well with lightly staffed ocean carriers, because so much of their systems have become automated. While tracking cargo on a computer didn't get it to move, forwarders like Expeditors were able to. "Our staff worked incredibly hard, and have been working hard for a number of months," Musser said. "We provide a much higher level of customer services. You can put everything on computers, but you still need people on the ground to make cargo move." The hands-on help manifested in two specific areas, he said. One was actually getting space on vessels when cargo was backed up across the Pacific. The other was getting containers off vessels when they arrived, and then on trucks or rail cars to move toward their destination. For me this is a win win situation-- of all the cargo carriers EXPD got the most vessels through it seems, they have picked up new customers no doubt and their air cargo division in addition should have a huge gain from companies like car parts suppliers who need on time merchandise. Then you have the more generalized play of an improving economy that should help the stock clear an interesting chart point. $56 is a five year high on Expeditors Presently the stock is $48.25 it looks to me ready to run to at least $56 and probably more.EXPD Buy. ~stoney PS I'm enamored with short hauler Trucker ODFL Old Dominion Freight as well. Have owned that one for a while.
For My Third pick I was torn between Hexcel, HXL which is in aerospace parts and lighter carbon fibers play and Thermo Electron TMO. I went with Thermo but am watching HXL. Last year I was watching this health name on a big upgrade and it was $122-$124-> It has gone nowhere. Some growth stocks die on the vine, some regroup. TMO has based in a big way and the earnings are strong. The quarter’s EPS of $1.99 steered ahead of the Consensus Estimate and the year-ago adjusted number by 39.2%. Revenues of $4.49 billion sailed past the year-ago number by 29.8%, also beating the Consensus Estimate of $4.39 billion. Yet the stock is where it was a year ago... Well then it started to move. Now $131.00 I believe Thermo is ready to break out of a powerful base. Swallowed Big Target- LIFE. -According to the company, it is outperforming its expectations in terms of the Life Technologies integration and is progressing well with the execution of its plans. In fact,Thermo Fisher is ahead of its original synergy target for the year. At the end of 2014, the company realized $115 million of synergy benefits, up from the last declared expected synergy of $110 million. Thermo Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO), the world leader in serving science, announced that Marc N. Casper, president and chief executive officer, will present at the Cowen and Company 35th Annual Health Care Conference on March 3, 2015, at 10:40 a.m. (EST) at the Boston Marriott Copley Place Hotel, Boston, Mass. Thermo Fisher Scientific helps customers accelerate life sciences research, solve complex analytical challenges, improve patient diagnostics and increase laboratory productivity. Through premier brands – Thermo Scientific, Applied Biosystems, Invitrogen, Fisher Scientific and Unity Lab Services – TMO is a Buy. ~stoney
Like Moses I come and stuff happens... My last few visits have been punctuated by vicious downturns could it be happening again? I think not! April though tax time, the market always seems weak then, driven by selling to create enough $'s to pay taxes. There probably is some connection between seldom appearances on stock forums and big market events to come... we shall see. The ever changing market makes it harder than ever to hold on to good ideas. Indeed just buying one thing for me entails selling another so it's doubly hard. You probably notice my new toned down tone, this is derived from a general lack of love for investing on my part, as the market seems to have moved away from my idea oriented type investing. Anyway my goal always was to make a million. Be a millionaire and I'm there! I've finally reached my goal! Only to find that what in the 1980's seemed like a lot to make in any one account (and it has taken all those years) just isn't as much as I thought it was. Besides I'm afraid after taxes I will slide below the mythical figure again-- for I'm not that far above the $1M mark. Some Elite Trader Ideas still stand for me but precious few: Here's an old clip from ET on a stock i still like alot::: POOL- Lets freakin' dig a pool. I've thought about it. Update. < What I have done folks is come up with a theme for the year which involves the high end to firmly middle class consumer but which disregards retail stocks as I believe that whole part of the consumption market is dying on the vine. We'll talk more about this later but we are heading into Gardening season! (Tractor Supply, I admit- I own it) & we are heading into lets break ground for a pool season! Lets upkeep our pool. I get a lot of wax in my ears so I don't like to dive down anymore and I don't even like the way most pools look... still I admit there is an attraction to a house that comes with a pool-- it gives one an excuse to lay about and do nothing but act like a Roman god. Around the bath tub, where I do it, it's embarrassing.> POOL- $ 58-59 Buy. Only $60 now I have a summer target of $80!!!!!>>>> Well POOL is still a favorite. Doesn't cost that much $69 now-> Here's another old clip:: HAR- Fancy audio for high end cars. $106 Buy-- $ 105 now. Same annoying dollar loss but considering the powerhouse nature of the name... here is another example of what you are looking for now: stocks with the potential to move up mid size... well HAR is $140+ ZIOP $4 now-$12!!! AKRX $3-$12-$-> Now $49!!!! EXAS $5-$12->Now $20! Ahhhhh, those were the days here at ET. Now you're apt to get sold some KITE and watch it fall; There used to be a fairly sequential play out of stock runs, one could identify a break out, ride a third, fourth stage and still leave a good 15% to the last victims. But times have changed. It's not as fun anymore. ~stoney
Hey stoned! Can you tell me what you think of one of my favorites, link is here: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/tsla.224571/ oops!
Hi Nursebee I'm afraid to check that link, did I say Tesla will never make it? That's ok I said the same thing about Michael Korrs. I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS!!!!It's HAPPENING AGAIN!! I haven't been on this site nor thinking about this site (sorry Baron) in forever, then I get a random email about some long lost thread which I didn't even understand MIND- to me was a long ago oil services company I played... but that got me clicking around here reading absolutely nothing of interest at all!!!! and For some ungodly reason I posted and the market has gone straight down ever since. It's hard to look like a genius when that happens. The stock market hasn't even burped upwards since this post-. This would be just an odd curiosity- me posting / market plunging- but it's now happened two and I think three times in a row over the past lets say 4 years. There realy is money to be made by waiting for me to post here at ET and then shorting the market. I thought you were going to say check out this thread on Novax! ~stoney
Phew! I guess we can go on with the thread now. I think what we have learned is when I come on Elite Trader there is always a short term top. I represent a mania of sorts the highly vaporized investor it's just in this case instead of being hyper aggressive buying, I'm sort of depressed by the everything. My grandfather had one of the original glass ticker tape readers -- I think it was brass -- he huddled around the North Fork of Long Island with a few buddies and got rich while others toiled. The idea that one could strike it big time was always the allure of investing when of course the goal really should be just protecting your darn money. I gambled in college and had a problem with that and so investing was a tremendous outlet for me and it stimulated my every waking moment. Buying selling buying selling and then came the Internet. Thank god I was relatively young then you could go through my old posts here and get a sense of what it was like. The term ' rollicking " doesn't come close to describing it. I can't tell you how many stocks I highlighted on Elite Trader that just absolutely went through the roof and are still going. Those of you old timers will remember the days... and then the days of despair. The Internet crash-- Yes I held Enron!!! All the way to Zero and Lorral Space straight to Zero... Innerspace I got out of but is that a movie or was it a stock... There were so many-- I got caught. Then the whole housing meltdown. Whoops guess who got one of those weird loans right at the end. I'm glad I did because I don't have the income to get a second mortgage and I've since changed banks and managed to get a refi on it... If I hadn't and it was a protracted battle with BAC that I lost and only family connections at Chase that may of saved me... I could of gone under. That million dollars could of ticked zero. As it is we have lost more than half other account twice and we have always struggled back and gone on further-- just like the market. So New Highs Are Possible! Maybe there's a few stocks we could buy from here-? It might be time for a little action. PLCM-- POLYCOM-- These guys have been around a long time, they are a video conferencing stock and a good one. They have good earnings in that regard, now with all this video being sqooshed and delivered on different devices new areas of growth have emerged for PLCM. + Good growth in terms of video conferencing. It's sort of a no brainer for companies it saves money and cuts down on needing to travel for these executives. + New Growth -increased video delivery via social media products will drive this stock. Here's an example: Polycom, Inc. (NasdaqPLCM) and Microsoft Corp. announced today an expanded relationship through which Polycom plans to deliver a new series of video collaboration solutions purpose-built for Skype for Business called Polycom® RoundTable®. The first device in this new offering is the Polycom® RoundTable® 100, an affordable and easy-to-use video solution for huddle rooms that will allow small to midsized businesses (SMB) and teams with Skype for Business and Microsoft Lync 2013 to enjoy rich collaboration experiences, including voice, video and content collaboration.... In the long term Polycom is gradually moving to a software centric business model, which is likely to significantly raise its market opportunities. Cloud software solutions for telecom service providers, application software for mobile devices, and collaboration software for enterprise customers, are the core areas of focus for the company. The buy now rationality here is that US growth for this co has slowed quite a bit and the feeling is that if things pick up here it will fold into the rest of the investing story very nicely. I think there is a lot of competition and one may not want to hold this stock a full year. But with a significant break out point just above the $14 area PLCM is a BUY Now. $13.75 BUY PLCM. ~stoney
This winter I finally broke down and bought a new car. All my life I've been a used car buyer which is better than a used car dealer! But not by much. I had several great cars in my past including an Datsun 240Z when I was in college. I fell in love with that car the way one falls in love with a reliably fast women. And she was stolen. Right off the streets of Boston. My ride has been a 92 Benz wagon for quite some time. It's a rare model in a rare west coast color and I bought it off Ebay my first purchase on that then new site. Ole' Blue is a 300TE and sits up in Ct in the middle of my lawn where he got frozen into place . After my long time furry companion died iN THE CAR on way to the Vet- the car itself has been haunted. One thing after another has gone wrong and my family fed up with being stranded on these highways demanded a change. I bought a Mazda CX-5!!! When it came down to extras I was of course going with the Moon Roof and the Bose stereo... I got talked into rim protection for my wheels but I drew the line at heated seats. This was a big mistake. My wife had specifically requested heated seats and there I declined. I mean the thought process was fart a bit hon'-- what's the big deal... same with a heated wheel... like I wanted to be unable to grab the wheel in August when that heat turns on by accident. In general I don't like technology and that's why I don't like new cars. You start the CX-5 by pushing a button for god's sakes... but this evil winter there were many times the steering wheel was FREEZINg so cold I thought it might snap if I pressed on it. The temp was sub zero for an extended period and we couldn't drive a minute without my wife going on and on about how nice it would be to have her seat heated... it started many fights but she was right and GENTHERM is right. THRM. These guys make the heated seats and the heated steering wheels and they are working on a groovy project that will capture energy now not captured in cars and power everyone's devices in the cars. Here is an interview with the CEO that better explains everything. I own this stock already and I want to double check where I bought in -it's been an up and down ride and certainly I don't think we have scratched the surface of the investing potential in this name. BUY~stoney THRM $47.50 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/b/9a55c424-56c8-489d-8a86-5ea55022f8dd
God help me I just bought a biotech into a declining bio market today! The fact is the stk is up when all the rest are down that kind of flags the name and it's a stock I am familiar with, a big dog with fleas KERX...Today there is over 3 million volume on this name, something is cooking. The scripts on their lead drug have been horribly low but we are expecting some new numbers soon and this spike may have something to do with that. Also large HMO's are due to start including KERX's product Auryxia. I'll come back with a better write up on KERX there has been some interesting big holders as of late and the potential for new avenues of growth for Auryxia. I don't love the investment because as a bio KERX has nothing else to offer but the good news if there is any is not priced in here so at least we have that. KERX $14.30 BUY ~stoney
UPDATE TO SHAREHOLDERS. Well it's deja vu all over again eh folks? I'm sure you would like to read about fantastic gains in the portfolio, instead I will tell it like it is. There is something wrong out there and it's not me. One day we are making successive new highs and the next we are down for the year. It's tough to rationalize both of those concepts. As your stockpicker it comes with some alarm that I have lost it. That magic touch of buying stocks that go up and up. Instead it seems I watch names hover around dollar amounts they will favor for months on end. A certain few romp on NFLX and such but the market is disjointed. How can it be a good value or fairly valued to start the year and now be over valued or toppy when we haven't moved a whit? Have earnings dived and PE's soared? I don't think so. Trickery with options and paying people, expenses kept off the books and PE rigging boy it sure feels like that's what is going on. 2015 ELITE PORTFOLIO : POOL has advanced from $58 - $70 That would be our top performer. TMO- is $130 down a couple bucks but within clear site of breaking out. Just made a $400 mln purchase. EXPD- $ 46 flat... boring. Pretty much describes air freight. ZLTQ-$29 Hanging on. Earnings good. KERX- Down quite a bit $11- $9.75 THRM $47- $55 has done well. PLCM was sold out of the portfolio to pay taxes. >>>>> Currently looking at HAR it has pulled in to $118 & MBLY they do the sensors for cars the lane warnings and back views etc. not much else. We find the market discouraging and healthcare ripe for a crash. The day after the Supreme Court ruled on Obama Care AETNA mailed me a letter cancelling my insurance they will no longer be serving New York. Oh really? That's kind of a large swath to ignore isn't it? Oh don't worry if you are currently undergoing cancer therepy or pregnant you can apply for an exemption and extra 12 months of coverage. What a joke. I spent a year trying to find a provider that actually would let my family see our Dr's it wasn't easy- now they pack up shop... thank you for your undying patronage. Signed Stonedinvestor qtrly Update 15'