I don't like when people say high probability. Because the losses usually are really huge anyway. That's something that I've empirically seen via backtest. It's not the probability of the signals that make it profitable.
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Don't generalize everything that YOU experienced. Other people can have other experiences, and their experiences can be just opposite of yours. It is not because YOU backtested that what you tell is the one and only truth. I learned that if people have other opinions or other experiences it is better to try to understand their experience and to learn something new. If you only believe in your truth, your knowledge will be limited by you. If you try to understand other's experiences you can add some of their knowledge to yours and become smarter than you could be on your own. Isn't that smarter to do?
Yes of course it is smarter to do so. So I maybe generalized but it's still conjectural. What I've done is a tentative generalization of my experiences. My experience which are not based on a small sample of backtests. What can I learn from him on this subject ? Nothing ... He didn't reply. You neither. You're not refuting my claim. But only telling me to listen to others. I am willing to listen and to try to reproduce what other are telling me. What I said is talking probability only is talking one side of the coin. And I added that usually, whatever the probability, The expectancy is negative, costs added. So high P(G) = Meaningless However I know it's not always the case, Some players find strategy with a positive advantage. But usually, the market is "fair" or efficient and can't be beaten. Usually refers to simples strategy I have backtest so Yes it's ridiculous. But I'd be surprised if someone would tell me that, Usually strategies have an advantage. I am willing to listen ! What kind of strategy? What Risk? What Skills? What conditions?
He told you that losses are not always huge. And I agree with him. I posted in past already numerous times that I have a high rate of winning trades because I have a high probability of making money each time I enter a trade. And losses are very small. Now the problem is that nobody will give away anything, so don't expect to receive code or real secrets. Each trader should do his own work. Nobody ever gave me really profitable tips, so why should I do it for others? To make them smart so that they become my competitors? Trading is already hard enough, so I don't need more competition. And especially not from traders that will use my knowledge and take away volume just when I need it to enter or exit. Another problem is also that bashers cause posters to stop posting certain things. So bashers kill part of the potential knowledge that otherwise might be shared.
I use to be like you exactly, but at some point, I reached a personal goal and no one can take it away. Like how much is enough number and after that you just trade cause if you don't someone else will get it. I believe in my heart, you can give 99% of Americans the Golden Goose and they either too lazy or dumb to realize they have it, all they want are stats, but trouble with stats, you don't know what exactly was tested, best to do you own work on back testing as it is your money you are risking. Foreigners who come to the USA are much more likely to work hard and succeed, and yes, that is from my personal experiences. I like trying to give something worthwhile in most of my posts otherwise I feel am adding to the clutter, forums are to share ideas is what I thought they to be, but time goes by, many people say little cause they know little or actually think what they know will be used by the masses, but hardly. Many say a great deal of nothing as there are many "experts" but to actually give anything worthwhile, you can forget it, but they the quickest at putting down others, "Ignore" one of the better features on ET. Trading is a jigsaw, you seldom pick up the full package but you see something, and it gave you ideas to further test and might discover nuances but at very least, forces you to look at charts and study even more. I have given often many ways to enter as that is generally what many want to see, I prefer to buy as price dropping and sell as market goes up, opposite of what feels good, but we for most part not trading to feel great till after. But you right, I would never hand out code or my automated Holy Grail systems, discovered them by error actually. You study anything long enough, you get lucky.
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