While top 20 is reasonable I wonder if he would have challenged for World #1 like Korchnoi at his late forties...
I doubt it. Carlsen is a much tougher version of Kramnik. Kasparov cannot handle players like Kramnik and Carlsen. Heck, he can't even handle Karpov. He is +1 over something like 127 games against Karpov.
Kasparov played terrific chess except of course the blunders. I actually thought he would be worse than he is today, and then pick it up tomorrow. That he is in striking distance is a feat. Wonder how fast the rust is coming off. Shocked if he won it all, and he is simply odds against. Caruana is playing very strong and seems like he should be a little better in the standings. Unexpected since he is not a blitz specialist at all. Expecting a much better showing tomorrow and would not be surprised to see top 2. Nakamura I think will be well rested and prepared tomorrow. I think he is odds on to win. So's calmness and resilience is impressive. I would say he is the least likely to win it all, but would not be surprised if he is the most improved US player this time next year and over 2800. Would love to see this tournament but G15. US chess is looking very strong.
I play 3d0 so I am moving strictly on instinct anyway. I would say that 15 maybe 20% of my games are decided on time. To me the clock is something my opponent has to worry about. I play almost strictly on playchess and lichess. Maybe the pay for sites don't cheat.