I agree with what you are saying. I was only pointing out that if your risk taking activities in the market are economically rewarded, and the pot of money to be gained is of significance, you will compete for it with battle hardened veterans.
There is less volume in the ES then there use to be so that alone makes it harder, at some point you don't even think about who is taking other side, I just look at trading as I am competing against myself. But really, it comes down to your trading plan and backtesting far back enough to know what to expect and help answer questions that will come up. First 30 minutes, orders are gobbled up, then 2nd half hour less so, and after that even less. I prefer to back test than actually trade now, really wish I was when I first started, then I would not have lost so much money and years. Every signal you have you should have stats and those stats broken down in contract months, then months, weeks, days. It is like those who are really into fantasy football, if ya don't know the stats, you most likely not going to have a good team. The reward comes from how much work you done before trading, sim trading, getting yourself into know what to do before the problem arises.
Which charting tool and trading platform do you use if I may ask? Thanks in advance. And what sources of data do you recommend?
ES does 1 million contracts a day , if that aint liquid enough nothing is . Range as a percentage is basically been the same for 4 decades with the usual fluctations . Price action is identical , the only changes are the participants . What worked 30 years ago still works today , some of the best trading books are 100 years old and still as relevant as ever
Maybe not easy for retail trader makng consistent result from trading forex,as my experience still hard to making profit regularly in trading, loss often occur and inevitable, and control emotion sometime fail if faced with successive loses
Ever since 2011, there been decline in volume with exception of long down bars. After the first 90 minutes, volume does not even pick much in afternoon. LOL, if you going to talk about history, how about being right, one million contracts is nothing considering ES is a very watered down version S&P500 futures contract of old, I have to trade ten times more to get same bang for the buck when S&P500 was $500 a point. CME made ES to sucker in more chumps who are under capitalized to pay exchange fees and give it's members more money. Thirty years ago ES was not even around and to chart patterns of S&P500 in the 80s than today, a good day was 4 points and S&P adhered to strong charting.
I have developed my own charting/back testing/platform. My best charting tool is between my ears. What you should do is buy data, use Ninjatrader or Multi-charts and start testing ideas. Learn how to chart first, that alone will take a solid year plus to get semi good, then learn to program, programming is much better when you understand charting. Indicators are fine to use after you have mastered charting. Do not open an account for a few years, if your back testing does not show promise, monies lost in the markets be great deal more expensive than data and charting package.
When you have losses in a row, what is charting saying? Could it be that the chart is showing like a cluster of support/resistance and you trying to trade against it? Knowing when not to trade is as important than taking signals. Have you studied "mean" Swing ave? What that is are completed swings ever hour, you look back 2-4 weeks to see what the market is most likely going to be from a strong pivot low to highs where it likely will reverse, so if you start taking buys near where price likely to reverse, you will likely have losses. It is like those who don't use 60 minute trendlines on highs/lows, I see so often traders taking buys just short of down sloping trend line off the highs, let price prove itself first before risking is what I do. Most will go short against the trendline on longer term methods. Good trading all, done for the day, Starbuck time !!!