Amazing volatility - Will it last?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Laissez Faire, Feb 9, 2016.

  1. Amalgam

    Amalgam

    Vol is mean reverting so no it will not last.
     
    #31     Feb 12, 2016
  2. Yes, apparently everything today except the weather and poverty are mean reverting. Timing could play a role if you are betting on mean reversion. (and timing is just another word for account size)
     
    #32     Feb 12, 2016
  3. Butterball

    Butterball

    It makes no difference at all. If volatility is lower, simply increase your position size. Same thing (except for higher trading fees).
     
    #33     Feb 13, 2016
  4. Not true at all.

    I'll give you a chance to redeem yourself. If you can't figure it out, I'll tell you.
     
    #34     Feb 13, 2016
  5. Sure. It won't. Eventually, we're back to 10 point range days. I'm curious when, though.
     
    #35     Feb 13, 2016
  6. what we are trying to tell you is, we may never revert back to 10 but by then 30 will become normal. So 30 becomes just another non volatile day. You are just looking at the past and thinking, "Wouldn't it be nice?"
     
    #36     Feb 13, 2016
  7. Chris Mac

    Chris Mac

    Ahah I heard this same answer in 2007 / 2008 and summer 2011.
    When majority still believe we will be back to normal, vol is far from spiking.
    So yes, it will last.

    CM
     
    #37     Feb 13, 2016
  8. Funny how the common refrain is that the volatility is "amazing" and yet I mostly see guys getting whipsawed throughout the day...Not everyone mind you, but enough participants that the common platitude's about volatility are overkill...

    I heard a similar refrain back in 2008 and then I noticed that ET was a ghost town by 2009..."volatility" just accelerates the zero sum aspect of the markets, simple as that...For every guy who chimes in with his "I love this volatility, look at these ranges" I can guarantee there are 10 others getting smoked by it.
     
    #38     Feb 13, 2016
    i960, ktm and whiskers like this.
  9. Amalgam

    Amalgam

    Uh, your two examples prove my point....
     
    #39     Feb 13, 2016
  10. Of course.

    If you don't know what you're doing the volatility doesn't matter anyway. I am of course writing this from the perspective of someone who knows what they're doing.

    I wouldn't consider the recent price action whipsaw, either. Pretty nice and large directional swings up and down.
     
    #40     Feb 14, 2016